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Today is Wednesday, October 7, 2026.
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You're >> watching TV technology, the fortunes of finance, >> the capital of capital.
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Let me tell you about ramp. com. Time is money. Save both.
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Easy use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more, including Tony Hawk.
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Now, they got a deal with Tony Hawk.
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And I saw Bam Margera in the promotional video. Go check it out.
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Uh, it's on Eric Lyman's X account. They did it again.
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>> Over the ramp socials. They did it again. Um, no. Uh, fantastic. Fantastic.
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>> Chad's saying we're late today. >> We are late today.
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We were working on uh working on stream title.
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Working on uh the plan for the show, but we have a great show for you because we planned.
0:45
Um, first off, I got a little movie review for you. I saw a movie yesterday.
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I went to the theater and I saw Prime Time >> and I and I wanted to Yeah. Oh, okay.
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I I want to review from those uh in on the production team who have seen Prime Time, the new Robert Patson film, but I thought I would try and take you on sort of a a film critique, a journey with a review that sort of channels the way Tyler reviews movies.
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So, here's my review of Prime Time. It was good.
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The audio was good and the video was good. Act one was good.
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Act two was good and act three was good.
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The acting >> was good >> and the lighting and the cinematography was good and the set design was good.
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So overall >> I feel like I have a >> I would say it's a good movie. >> Strong review. That was a good review. >> Pretty good.
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>> What do you guys think? You liked it? Let's get Scott up here. >> Saw that movie. >> Yeah. You liked it?
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>> I thought it was great.
1:58
>> How cool was the the frame?
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It felt like I was watching IMAX format, but it was just 43.
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>> They used 23 different cameras on that movie.
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>> The cinematography was crazy, right?
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And the highlights blown out and there was so much grain.
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Like it was >> it was like way too stylized for >> Oh, yeah. It was so stylized.
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I had no idea where any of this would like where these ideas came from.
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It feels like they were just pulling from every different camera from that era.
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>> Yeah, >> it was really, really cool.
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>> Well, Lance Oppenheim. >> There we go.
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>> Lance Oppenheim, he does documentaries.
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Have you seen Renfair and >> Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's right. That's right. Okay, cool. >> Yeah.
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Uh, but yeah, really, really fun uh, you know, creative way to throw back to like the way people watch TV at that time. 4x3. >> I like that.
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I like that Chris Hansen was kind of like the antagonist the entire time.
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Yeah, it's a it's a it's a it's a complex investigation of his career and and uh and the way he's remembered. Did he go too far?
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And it it it feels like a little bit heavy-handed, like it's pretty clear the the the vision.
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It doesn't fully leave you open to make your own judgment, but you of course can which I I thought was a nice touch.
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And and Robert Patson is just in fighting form like >> Yeah, he's in a flow state.
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>> He's just in flow state. Yeah, he's really good.
3:15
Uh anyway, we clearly were teasing it, but of course we have the TBPN road to Christmas countdown ready for you. Let's let you know.
3:23
Let's remind everyone there are 78 days until Christmas. Get ready. Get ready.
3:34
If you missed it yesterday, we did an interview, a deep dive into the Christmas tree farmers association of America.
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understanding everything from how the Christmas tree industry is structured to techniques for keeping your Christmas tree alive.
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>> And if you watch any tech or business content this week, it's got to be that. >> It's got to be that.
3:57
It's got to be that interview.
3:58
Uh it was >> so we highly recommend that you donate.
4:02
I made a donation yesterday. Uh trees fortroop. org. Give whatever you can.
4:06
Uh they also do company matching.
4:09
So, if you uh work at a company that matches donations, uh if you're an early anthropic uh employee and they match three to one, back the truck up. Throw down 100 mil. Come on, let's do it.
4:21
Let's Let's get Every troop must have the biggest tree possible. A 40-footer.
4:28
You know, I want a White House style tree in every troop's home. That would be amazing.
4:34
No, but uh he he had some harsh words for the plastic tree industry.
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He called them toilet brushes, which was hilarious.
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I I'd never heard that that that slur for those uh plastic trees before, but he he had it ready to go, which I enjoyed. And it did.
4:51
Uh and I noticed some people in the comments saying, "Hey, look, I understand that a real tree is better, but not everyone can afford a real tree, and the economics of a of a plastic tree just sometimes make make more sense for certain people.
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And I understand that not everyone's in the position to buy a brand new expensive tree.
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First off, that's why we do the road to Christmas. You can start saving. >> Yeah.
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>> And you can be saving 364 days for your tree.
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Also, I would say don't you don't have to go huge.
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You can buy a three-foot two foot tree. >> Charlie Brown.
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>> Yeah, you can get a tiny tree um if that's what you can afford.
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And I think that you will wind up saving money on a series of small real trees over the full-size expensive plastic toilet brush tree.
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So, be careful out there this uh this Christmas.
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Make sure to support our uh our Christmas tree industry because it's important.
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>> Anyway, um I had a question.
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I I I asked Ben Thompson this.
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Let me see if he's responded yet because he has not responded.
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We will talk about it on the show and get to the bottom of this later.
6:02
So Ben Thompson's going through uh a bunch of a bunch of uh you know frustrations over um MacOSS.
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He's vibe coding building apps.
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The apps need permissions.
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We've talked about this uh the the agentic era.
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Um but yesterday there was a post that hit the timeline that was uh pretty crazy.
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A uh a sort of truth nuke uh for the Adobe crowd.
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Someone decompiled basically every Adobe product. It's called Artcraft. Getartcraft. com.
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Capable tools for artists.
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And you can download for free all sorts of different um tools that they have.
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And they basically cloned >> what kind of tools?
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>> Photoshop, Premiere Pro.
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Uh they it feels like they can do a lot.
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I'm not exactly sure if they decompiled everything in the Adobe ecosystem, but listed here is PhotoCraft, which is clearly Photoshop, vector craft, which is Adobe Illustrator, film craft, which is uh Premiere Pro, Light Craft, which is Lightroom, Print Craft, Effect Craft, which looks like after effects, and then Design Craft, which is I think in design.
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Um, more crafts are on the way.
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And so it says all Adobe products re-implemented from scratch, free and open source.
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And uh this is pretty pretty crazy.
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There have been open-source competitors to Photoshop for a long time.
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They've always lagged a lot.
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I downloaded uh the Photoshop decompilation PhotoCraft. Used it a little bit. Not bad.
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Pretty remarkable how many tools did make it over.
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It actually doesn't have everything that you would expect.
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Some of the really cool features of modern Photoshop are actually AI and they run on the server.
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So if you if you if you want to patch a hole, you've always been able to fill it in with a with a full color.
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You've also been able to do content aware fill where it has a basic algorithm that looks at the colors of the pixels around the textures and tries to blend that in, but it can be a little it's like pretty hallucinatory.
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And then recently Adobe launched uh AI fill.
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I forget what it's called.
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Not it's not contentaware fill.
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It's it's it's some generative fill.
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I think they call it generative fill and that of course runs on the server usually uses nano banana or they have a they have a couple fine-tuned models and that feature because it's server side doesn't work.
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So there's this interesting thing where like yeah you're in the death of software you can just decompile everything but at the same time I probably want my software to run on the server.
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I want the server to be stable.
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I I need the I need services.
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So all the investments that software makers made in providing like inferenceheavy tooling um actually sort of creates a little bit more of a moat.
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Obviously the moes are are are decreasing but there still is something where I where if I were doing heavy duty Photoshop use Photocraft would not be a perfect substitute for my workflow.
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For some people they'll be like yeah this is actually perfect.
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But you've always been able to download an illegal copy of Photoshop.
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Uh, but this is less illegal maybe. It's unclear.
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It's unclear because it it's probably >> Has Adobe responded yet? >> I don't know.
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But it's going to be fun to watch the open source decompilation uh community uh duke it out with all the tech companies.
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Um >> yeah, the interesting thing is um there's been so many reasons to not buy Adobe for so long, just given that >> historically I would think of an idea >> for even like a joke and I'd be thinking in my head, I wish I had I wish I had the time to Photoshop this or I wish I had somebody handy that could just Photoshop this.
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>> Now you just >> you get there with a prompt. Yeah.
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Especially for these sort of like less professional use cases. >> Totally.
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>> Um >> tools sort of stick around if it's like you need to lock in and do like a full day of work.
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Like there's no substitute yet for like I if you were going to be spending eight hours in After Effects or eight hours in Premiere Pro, you're probably not going to be able to replace that with a prompt.
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But if it's like, oh yeah, you want to just like, you know, composite two images together for a meme or add some text, a prompt is going to get you there.
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If it was, and it would have been 20 minutes of work in Photoshop, now it's uh, you know, one minute of work in Chachi PT um or any other tool.
10:31
Uh, and so the obviously we're seeing like these two spikes of intelligence right now.
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Anything that can be done in a purely virtual environment is accelerating extremely quickly.
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anything that touches like the real world or requires human data or requires like this flywheel. Uh that's much slower.
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Uh and the OpenAI math results like show a similar story.
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We can talk about that more later, but uh I'm sure most people saw it.
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Uh it's a pretty crazy result.
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Uh what is the what is the highlight the high level?
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It's like 70 different problems, right?
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I think it was so I think the the full number is 722 like manuscripts. Okay.
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And then so it's kind of hard to like how do you delineate like an actual problem? Yeah.
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>> Um but yeah there's like a massive list of like unsolved problems. >> Yeah.
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The the press release just calls it a broad range.
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It's like we solved math.
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Um uh it's uh it's interesting.
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There's a there's a good Josh Gans article analysis on Substack that we can read through later.
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Um but uh and and Francois Chalet uh the creator of RKGI broke down a theory of what's going on with this big jump in progress and what it means for overall generalization.
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He said, "What if the jagged frontier is mainly math plus code which you can push arbitrarily far with reinforcement learning learning with verifiable rewards RLVR and everything else starts to plateau because it's still bottlenecked by human generated data.
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Model performance in nonverifiable areas has kept improving steadily, albeit much slower than for math and code.
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But is that steady improvement a side effect of a higher G the general intelligence itself driven by RLVR or only a function of the amount of h new human data getting injected into training which is still continually happening on a massive scale?
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A lot of things depend on the answer to this question.
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And so what's what's interesting is um it really this is a this is a this is a less of a feel the AGI moment and more of a field of super intelligence moment for me personally because no human intelligence has ever been able to solve this many math problems this quickly at this level of mathematical ability like it's just it it has never happened in human history.
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uh it's beyond it feels like it's beyond Einstein grinding on this or anyone else really.
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Uh and so it feels like it's something new.
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At the same time, it's very spiky.
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I still like the machine intelligence name because it has a different shape and we're trying to mold the machine intelligence into something that slots in neatly into like a human a general framework but it keeps breaking out and spiking in these odd areas because of the the the ability to train in these environments.
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So um the terminology debates are sort of irrelevant.
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Um there's clearly some near-term impacts that are worth working through.
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Uh as I mentioned earlier, Ben Thompson has been working through these MacOSS frustrations while he goes deeper in agentic AI.
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Uh he wrote about this in a strategy post called Apple and the hacker's future.
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He said, "What I'm much more interested in is controlling the software layer myself.
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The fact of the matter is that with AI, you can decompile almost all existing software.
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There is a revolution happening in gaming over the past few weeks as game after game is decompiled to source and ported to any platform you wish and you can write your own.
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That means my software that interacts with my agent in the way I want it to for everything.
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That's way more exciting than praying Apple delivers the right API and that third party developers don't suck.
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And so, um, he's he's talked about the frustration of of you use an agent to build a piece of software and it and that piece of software lives on your Mac Mini or your computer and it needs to access the desktop to save files or it needs to uh access the network.
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And when you build a new piece of software, Mac OS says, "Hey, this is a this is a piece of software you're running, but you need to explicitly give it permissions, you have to click yes on the popup."
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We're all familiar with this from iOS.
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You download an app and it's like, "Can it send you notifications?
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Can it have your location?
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Can it get into your camera roll?" Right?
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Like these these apps, even after you install them, they're very walled off for privacy reasons, which is great.
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But Ben wants to operate at a different level of abstraction.
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give a coding harness the ability to write software that then maintains the same level of uh of approvals and uh and access uh and permissions that >> the overarching AI agent has been given.
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Um and there's been this bullcase for Linux.
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It's possible that we see more Linux boxes and maybe even Linux on the desktop because all of the downsides of Linux are offset by oh well now you just have a prompt to interface with it instead of anytime like getting like the volume changed in Linux is sometimes like a command line thing and it's such a hassle but if you have a prompt there you can just say oh like fix this driver change this thing and it'll just go do it.
16:00
Um uh but uh the uh what's what's interesting is like we went from like old games like Halo and Modern Warfare 2 and Minecraft being decompiled uh and then Photoshop and some other Adobe software.
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And I'm wondering like how far are we away from just straight up decompiling Mac OS?
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Because if you can decompile Mac OS, then you could potentially patch security features that you don't like, uh, you could change that fact that every new application needs permissions granted explicitly.
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You could just go into the source code and recompile your new version of your operating system that's based on Mac OS.
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Now, clearly Apple's not going to be happy about that.
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It's really complicated, but what >> Yeah.
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I mean, isn't that just like jailbreaking like your iPhone?
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We've been able to do that for a while, but no one does it because then you lose like a bunch of features of >> Yeah.
16:59
I wonder I wonder how hostile Apple would be to that because is there a way to to decompile jailbreak uh Mac OS and still appear to Apple servers as like, oh yeah, this is like a legit Mac OS install.
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And so uh we will still serve them iCloud or we will still uh treat it as a viable iMessage recipient, which is like what people want. They want iMessage. They want the ecosystem.
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They want security updates.
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But then they also at least the the hackers in Ben Thompson's analysis. >> Sure.
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They'll love it and they'll encourage it and they'll celebrate it. >> Yeah. Yeah.
17:35
Uh it but it does feel like it does feel like it could be good for the hacker's future in the Apple ecosystem.
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Like if you can eventually just point an AI model and say like, you know what, I don't like this about Mac OS, but I like everything else.
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just change this feature at a very root root level and it goes and breaks in and does exactly what you want.
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Uh hackers could be like, "Yeah, okay, we're staying with Mac OS for a while."
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Because the hardware is great.
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They obviously still have a huge hardware moat.
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Um but there are a whole bunch of other uh issues in the new world where software is infinitely malleable.
18:07
Uh regardless, like this is all just firmly the domain of hackers.
18:12
Even this uh even this Photoshop like is Adobe moving on the news like uh Adobe Market Cap where we traded down 3% 5% over the last five days 10% over the past month. I don't know.
18:27
There's like an ongoing SAS apocalypse narrative.
18:29
It's down 33% over the past year.
18:31
Um but uh it doesn't seem like people are are are cancelling their Creative Cloud subscriptions in mass because of this.
18:40
But uh it'll be interesting to see where this goes.
18:43
This is definitely like uh you got to be pretty early adopterish to be like, "Yeah, I'm running the decompiled version of this thing and like I modded my own Halo into Modern Warfare and I'm having fun with that."
18:53
Um I did see someone got a nuke in Modern Warfare 2 Minecraft Edition. Did you get a nuke?
19:02
>> I I did not drop a nuke.
19:04
>> It seems like you did drop a nuke on this. Yeah, right now. >> Uhoh. Uh oh.
19:08
I feel like the sound effects a little antilimactic there. Okay, there we go.
19:12
I guess it would be quiet. There we go. The truth. >> It's been a good run. >> Goodbye everyone.
19:16
We'll be back in 5 seconds.
19:19
This animation's a little slow, so I don't know.
19:23
>> We're going to work on speed.
19:24
>> We got to speed that one up.
19:25
>> Um, last thought on on uh math day yesterday.
19:28
Um, >> you got to wonder where companies like Harmonic go. Vlad's company.
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Their focus has been >> a few of those companies. >> Yeah.
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their focus has been, you know, building mathematical super intelligence.
19:40
Um, it's not to say that, um, it's not to say that that they don't have a bunch of different angles that they could still run at. Yeah.
19:48
>> Um, >> but I imagine that is the kind of thing that they would have wanted to do, >> you know, themselves versus um, >> uh, getting, you know, sort of frontr run by a more uh, general purpose lab.
20:04
>> Yeah, it's uh, yeah, it's interesting.
20:04
I wonder where else there's still a few Millennium Prize problems out there that you could grind uh if you're in the race.
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And and then there's so many other things that you can sort of uh pivot towards if you're uh working on super intelligence of any kind, but specifically mathematical super intelligence.
20:24
You would imagine that that uh you could go and if you've made progress, yeah, maybe you're a month behind solving all these conjectures and whatnot.
20:32
Uh but you have a solid model, you could go and and you know try and dominate in an engineering vertical, right, >> John? >> Did you think that?
20:44
>> Uh do you value human intelligence above all other human qualities? >> No.
20:51
>> I knew the answer to that already >> because we've been operating with golden retriever golden retriever mindset. >> Yes. Yes.
20:57
The golden retriever mindset.
21:00
Uh two years ago we sort of coined this on the show.
21:02
It's a two-year anniversary of TVPN, by the way.
21:04
We started in October of 2024. >> There we go. >> Yeah, two years in.
21:09
Um, but yes, the Golden Retriever >> be what was it? Hot, friendly, and dumb.
21:18
Something that uh it was like, this is pre-look maxing, but it was basically like focus on physical fitness. Don't make enemies.
21:25
Be very friendly, and don't think you're the smartest person in the room.
21:29
No one really likes a know at all.
21:31
But also, you're going to have a bad time if you uh if you prize value in if you value intelligence above all other human qualities, you're going to have a bad time.
21:41
That was Ilas Sudskver in 2023.
21:46
And um yeah, it seems like that is playing out in real time, but there are still a whole bunch of other things.
21:52
And I don't know, people are val like intelligence is still really important obviously.
21:58
It's just applied in so many different ways.
22:00
Uh like it it's not it's not it's just odd that like the IMO gold medalist to startup founder pipeline is super rich and yet the work of a Scott woo at cognition daytoday does not look like solving IMO IMO level >> looks like high stakes poker. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
22:24
deal making, hiring, strategy, implementation, product development.
22:29
There's so many other things.
22:31
It would be very funny if it was just like, oh yeah, actually like solving math problems is the most like if you can solve math problem, your your company will make like a billion dollars.
22:40
So, you got to solve like 12 a year, so you got to just staff like a lot of mathematicians and like just be solving these.
22:47
And like, yeah, as long as Okay, how are you going to solve 20 of these math problems that get you a billion dollars each next year?
22:52
because we need to see growth.
22:54
We need to underwrite these.
22:56
It's pretty high margin, but you got to pay the mathematicians a lot.
22:58
No, it's never really been that that's not the work, but uh it's all these it's all these other human qualities uh that seem to be sticking around.
23:08
I don't >> Run says, "Do not let yourself be reduced to the status of an audience at a magic show uncomprehendingly clapping as m machine intelligence creates parcels of astounding knowledge.
23:18
All of this is for us to be understood by us to sate our own curiosities.
23:22
It's all really happening.
23:25
Uh yeah, the good news here, you know, the internal model that uh was used.
23:31
>> Why is he taking shots at being an audience member at a magic show?
23:33
That's like my favorite >> kind low blow.
23:38
>> I I'm I'm I'm like the number one audience member at a magic show.
23:41
I love magic shows and I love being there being like, "Wow, this is amazing. That's the best. That's the best.
23:48
I don't need to be the guy being like, "Oh, I figured out the magic trick. I I know how it works."
23:54
I just want to sit there and be odd.
23:55
And that's my experience today.
23:55
I'm just like, really impressive math, guys. Awesome.
24:00
But I don't I don't need to. I'm good. I'm good. No.
24:04
I'm good. I'm good. No. uh it is a good it is a good message for a particular for a particular person but I think if you didn't understand the first thing about the theorems that are trying to be disproved you're not really going to be
24:18
satisfied by trying to understand the proofs uh you can just uh there are some really funny ones though somebody uh somebody was making fun of like our our our chud universe is what was that one you can do a for you can do forier transforms in O of N log N to the 0.99999999999999
24:36
99999999999999 time f this chud universe.
24:43
It's just like it's the least elegant solution to the to the math problem.
24:47
And and somebody was somebody was sort of arguing that like uh like a lot of the previous work in math has been like oh try and find the elegant solution and then the AI comes in and it's just like there's an inelegant solution and uh and it just tells you a lot about both the mathematical disciph discipline and like the nature of our universe that there are like these weird quirks.
25:07
Um anyway uh where should we go next?
25:11
Uh SpaceX looking to raise 40 billion to give to Jensen.
25:16
Blockbuster debt deal is the latest sign of vast spending on chips and other infrastructure.
25:23
Uh the company is seeking to raise about 10 billion in bank loans and 30 billion in investment grade debt to fund its blockbuster chip order.
25:28
Private capital group Apollo is expected to lead the financing effort and help sell the debt to a broad base of investors.
25:37
>> Uh PIMCO was among a small group of lenders in talks to fund the deal.
25:41
SpaceX financing plans underscore the vast sums that are being raised to pay for investment in data centers.
25:45
Uh insurance and pension funds would be able to buy SpaceX's debt due to its BBB credit rating, the second lowest investment grade ranking.
25:54
Such funds take much more limited positions in junk rated notes.
25:58
Apollo and PIMCO declined to comment.
26:01
The deal would strengthen ties between SpaceX and Nvidia after Musk vowed to double down on the group's technology for his AI initiatives.
26:07
It would also mark a win for Nvidia as it contends with growing competition from chip makers aiming to challenge its dominance in advanced semiconductors.
26:18
We've decided to build exclusively on Nvidia because we think the Vera Rubin architecture is the best architecture.
26:25
We think it's the best AI computer and we greatly value our close cooperation and partnership on many levels.
26:31
>> That's interesting because that's that's only on the short term, right?
26:33
Because he's still doing Terra Fab.
26:34
He's going to make his own chips.
26:36
He's making his own chips at Tesla and he has a deal with Intel for that. >> Yeah.
26:43
>> So, he's kind of just saying like >> I think he recognizes like right now it's very strategic to just um go kiss kiss the ring basically.
26:50
Um, investors whom SpaceX had previously approached about financing its purchase said they only received a short two-page deal memo with pictures of outer space and an arrow pointing out that the company was going to build data centers somewhere in the universe.
27:05
How are we supposed to take that to IC?
27:07
One of the people said, uh, referring to their investment committee that approves transactions.
27:14
Uh, sounds like a pretty good memo to me.
27:18
>> I was I was laughing at this, too.
27:18
And then I was thinking like it really is pretty simple. Like it's $40 billion. Buy some chips.
27:26
What is the value of the chips?
27:28
How do you underwrite those?
27:28
Like it I I mean I guess you need more, but you can probably uh you can probably back of the envelope it yourself.
27:37
Um but it is it is funny that uh the photos that we saw in the S1 made it into even the even the private credit side of the of the deal making. >> Yeah.
27:51
I think I think investors if you're planning if you're exploring putting billions to work Yeah.
27:56
into AI infrastructure, >> you should probably be doing a lot of your own work on understanding the risks totally how this could go wrong. Yeah.
28:05
And uh I think that uh giving money to Elon and just sort of trusting the process has worked to date, >> right? >> Yeah.
28:15
>> And so he's sort of earned the right to have a, you know, shorter than than average memo, I think, at this point. >> Yeah.
28:22
I mean, I guess you can underwrite the core business.
28:25
the core business. I mean it's already been rated as tripleB so there's already a credit rating that you can go from but then you can also you know build your own credit rating from the SEC filings from SpaceX and you can look at the traction there um and then you can
28:40
understand yeah I mean maybe you need to understand a little bit more about like the economics and the tokconomics that they expect like do they expect to just sell all of this as Neocloud compute for other um for other labs are they thinking going more internal. That
28:55
That probably does affect the creditworthiness for this deal.
28:59
So, that might be something you want to put in investment committee memo, but uh you can just build your own, I guess. I don't know.
29:09
It seemed like uh yeah, uh pretty pretty aggressive, but we'll see.
29:15
>> Uh what does Nick Presler have to say? >> Says, "Look at him. That's my qu. You're what? You're qualitative. My vibe specialist. Look at him.
29:23
You notice anything different about him? Look at his face. I'll give you a hint. His name is Jaden.
29:28
He won a local poetry competition in Bushwick.
29:30
Yeah, I'm sure of the vibe.
29:33
>> This is This is based on real reporting here. Uh from AQR Capital.
29:35
Uh quant firms are hiring idea guys, not quants.
29:42
I've been skeptical about the whole software is commoditized ideas are the moat argument, but I've seen firsthand the best quant and technical firms in the world hire thinkers, liberal arts grads, and generalists.
29:54
I predict the trend accelerates.
29:56
trend accelerates. Uh yeah, I actually know now that I'm thinking about it, I know a lot of hedge fund guys who have philosophy degrees and I'm kind of biased here based on the sample size, but I know a lot of people like have studied history and gone into uh investment investing and they brought a
30:16
very differentiated lens to the practice and some of them did really well because of that because they were able to you know understand the way like the Euro zone might develop more because they studied, you know, history in a PhD program for >> they they had a crazy Euro summer. >> Yeah. Basically, >> Yeah.
30:36
Basically, so uh let's let's read this actual letter.
30:40
The question being asked not only in finance but also across industries and business schools is what remains a durable differentiator once AI has surpassed many of humanity's analytical and technical capabilities?
30:54
Our answer is not what most people would expect to hear from a quantitative investor.
31:00
Of course, AQR, what is AQR actually stand for?
31:03
It's like advanced quantitative research, I think. >> Yes. >> Uh, is that right? Did I one shot?
31:09
>> Applied >> applied quant.
31:11
Oh, >> we should know that.
31:15
>> Our answer is not what most people would expect to hear from a quantitative investor or in business school dean.
31:21
creativity and emotional intelligence.
31:24
That's what's going to get you the big bucks on Wall Street going forward.
31:26
Uh you got to win that poetry competition in Bushwick if you want to get the big bonus.
31:33
Uh not because these qualities are wholly immune to AI, but because in the age of AI, they are domains where people can develop a durable advantage.
31:43
They AQR said golden retriever Max. They they they agree. They agree.
31:46
the era the the time of the golden retriever is upon us.
31:50
Um anyway, let me tell you about Cisco.
31:55
Cisco critical infrastructure for the AI era.
31:57
Unlock seamless real-time experiences and new value with Cisco.
31:59
If you're in Europe and you're building the data center, you got to call Cisco.
32:03
Uh you also got to procure a beautiful, beautiful building because uh take a look at this European data center. Amazing. This solves so much. This is so good, right? this is what we want.
32:15
Uh this is this would change so many things if uh if our if we had a data center if if Abene looked like Versailles.
32:23
It's a completely different conversation. Jordy, do you disagree? >> I agree.
32:29
>> I'm on to something right. >> I agree. >> Give me credit here.
32:31
Make build Versailles as a data center.
32:33
Actually, turn Versail into a data center, then copy paste it into every community in America. Uh, >> okay.
32:41
So, I'm so I'm so confused because this image >> Yeah.
32:47
>> came out of a thread from the co-founder of Mistral. >> Yeah.
32:52
>> Which he posted announcing Lechonk, their new model, yesterday.
32:56
>> Oh, it's it's a train station.
32:58
>> But then it's but then it's getting community notice.
32:59
So, I think he might have been just >> he was joking.
33:02
>> Was he messing with people? >> Brutal.
33:03
It seems like it's a >> it's a train station in France. >> He pranked us.
33:08
Well, it will be a data center soon.
33:10
I think the traction on this post shows you that people want beautiful data centers.
33:18
>> Uh, and this is the future.
33:18
Uh, the other the other interesting thing, have you heard of like an ice?
33:22
>> That is such a good bit.
33:22
I love that ML is is leaning into the um to the heckling that they that they have to go through from uh America.
33:32
I think it's really smart and uh I'm rooting for them.
33:39
Have you seen I'll put this in the Let me see. I'll put this in here. Uh iceberg houses.
33:45
This is new for the mansion section.
33:47
I don't know if this is real, but it certainly could be with enough civil engineering. Uh take a look at this.
33:54
Tell me that this would not also not be a great data center uh design. Uh look at this. Zoom in a little bit.
34:02
Okay, so you got the house up top.
34:04
Looks like a normal building. You go underneath.
34:07
This one has a variety of of amenities.
34:12
>> Bowling alley, swimming pool, movie theater, ping pong table. >> Yeah.
34:16
Full deep underground garage.
34:19
>> The other one >> doubles as a >> The other one's a little higher res. You can zoom in on this. This one's cool, Jordy.
34:26
The uh this one that if you you could put a lot of a lot of CP a lot of GPUs in there. >> That's P.
34:34
And I think you still you vent it up just through the chimneys that you already got in the house. Think you're good to go. >> Ideally, they could.
34:41
>> And the sound cool the sound like people a lot of people complain about the sound that would be underground be diffused. I don't know. There's something here. We're close.
34:49
We're close to solving it.
34:52
>> We're close to solving a >> reporter was on the ground. >> Oh yeah.
34:56
>> Apparently inside >> a data center.
34:57
They were asking one of the construction workers his thoughts on the current labor market. Let's pull this up.
35:07
>> So, when you hear data centers, what comes to mind?
35:10
>> I'm working at Homer City building the new data center.
35:12
>> People say it's only temporary.
35:12
It's only when they're building it out. Then what happens?
35:16
>> Hey, every job in my field is temporary. >> That's true, too. Okay, I hear you, man.
35:21
So, when you hear data center, >> the reporter's like, "Yeah, that's a good point, actually."
35:23
Yeah, people haven't really said that before.
35:26
Like that's kind of a genius take. I don't know. I've never heard that.
35:30
It's like, yeah, they're temporary, but every construction job is temporary. That's the whole point. Um, funny.
35:34
Anyway, uh, what if instead of Greek life, it was Chinese life? Yeah, bro. I'm rushing.
35:40
Mao Z dong next semester. There's like 1.
35:44
4 billion people in my pledge class.
35:48
Uh, I thought that was just very funny instead of Greek like because we use the Greek alphabet, you know, Chinese be very funny.
35:58
Um, anyway, uh, we got to talk about Porsche.
36:00
Huge news in the Porsche world.
36:03
The Mission X, the Mission E, they've dumped the electric pitch for the hypercar. >> It's a flat eight. >> Flat 8. They're going analog. Will it have a manual? I don't know.
36:17
But they're I mean they're they've seen the Carrera GT. Everyone still loves it.
36:22
People are uh not buying the Rimach Nava.
36:25
The >> this is going to be absolutely incredible. >> Fina Batista.
36:29
They want they want an engaging experience.
36:32
Uh I have a thesis that uh car makers are basically in their version of the quartz crisis.
36:39
So in the 70s or 80s, the quartz crystals were uh built to create watches that do not require mechanical movements to tell the time.
36:56
And so all of a sudden, instead of having to go to a Rolex to get a reliable watch that was crafted from a watch maker who understood how to actually get something like a perpetual calendar on there that might actually been useful.
37:12
Um, the quartz crisis made it so that you effectively brought modern technology, digitization, and and a super accurate watch product to the market for way way cheaper.
37:26
And the end result was that the watch industry didn't die.
37:29
Rolex is still going strong.
37:32
Vashron, Adam Pig, plenty of other brands made it through. But what did they do?
37:39
They didn't try and lean into quartz and cut the prices and say, "Oh yeah, you can have a digital Rolex for, you know, we're going to compete with Timex.
37:48
We're going to compete with the G-Shock.
37:50
It's going to be 50 bucks."
37:51
They said, "No, we have a brand here.
37:53
let's com let's let's let's maintain this and make this a status symbol and experience.
37:58
And I think that's what's happening with the car market.
38:02
It's like either you're going to be electric self-driving Tesla Model Y competitor, Model 3 competitor, something like that, Whimo, or you need to be a Ferrari, an SP3 Daytona or what Porsche is doing with this new vehicle.
38:19
So tell us what are they actually doing?
38:21
Yeah, I mean that's what what uh Matt um Mate from uh Rimac and Bugatti has been just like objectively saying he's been pushing this this new narrative um leading from the front >> easier to do from >> Bugatti where they've already they they've sort of stayed more true to their roots for a long time.
38:39
But Porsche is in an interesting position because they have danced with oh if we do an electric uh an electric Cayman, an electric uh sedan.
38:48
They did sort of electric the TYON's sort of an electric Panamera.
38:54
Uh they have an electric uh they have a few SUVs. The Macan is electric.
39:00
And the performance numbers are incredible.
39:01
like the the the Macan or it's the Cayenne Turbo Electric is dramatically faster than 911, which is just bizarre to see on the track.
39:13
And yet, that's not emotional in the same way.
39:18
It's not it's probably not the right bet for the heritage of the of the brand.
39:22
And I think we'll see much more excitement around their flat age. >> Yeah.
39:28
Mate on in a post yesterday or the day before was saying like it's over like basically the the the the co like the game of trying to produce you know >> the >> most advanced cars for the lowest price y or even for in the premium price range >> uh is going to just be tougher and tougher and tougher.
39:48
Um, >> so he's saying, you know, encouraging using, you know, premium materials, analog switches, all these less.
39:53
That's the thing that I'm most interested to see with the Mission S is how much they've been able to pick up the feedback that's been happening from enthusiasts >> over many years now, right?
40:04
Um, I'm sure this car has been in development for um for for for many years at this point, but still, will they will they uh go for a manual?
40:16
How how analog will the cabin be? Yeah. And and the switches. Um material selection.
40:21
Part of what's, you know, Porsche in some ways never >> went as far as a lot of the other manufacturers.
40:29
Like they didn't lean as heavily on screens.
40:32
They kept a lot of analog switches.
40:36
>> They did make some sacrifices >> over the years, but they never they never went all the way.
40:40
like you never got in a Porsche and felt like, okay, thank you for putting, you know, eight TVs in my face.
40:48
>> Yeah, it feels like maybe not every year, but they've they but pretty consistently over the last 20 years, they've always had some manual type product.
40:56
I personally think we got to go further.
40:59
Everyone is says, "Oh, I want to go back to a combustion engine.
41:01
I want to go maybe back to like an air cooled engine.
41:05
No uh no turbochargers, no superchargers. Don't put that in. And I want a manual.
41:10
I want to go back even further. I want the crank start.
41:14
>> Crank start the hyper car.
41:14
You know what I'm talking about? Yeah.
41:16
Cranking starting your car.
41:19
That's the way we used to do it before we got all this fancy starting technology.
41:22
And I think that if you bring that back, it's going to make it even more emotional and visceral. >> Yeah. Yeah.
41:29
Taking it too far would be great. Like how far is too far?
41:31
We don't know yet, right? >> Yes.
41:34
>> Go back to the wagon wheels. >> Yeah.
41:36
But uh but really max out the the the power because some of these some of these cars it'll be like wait you can just get a a 1000 horsepower out of a out of a V8 these days? Like what happened?
41:49
And a lot of that's like advances in material science and engineering that >> so anyways they announced the development of this of the mission s uh yesterday. >> Yep.
41:59
It's on newsroom >> and um but they're going to be actually showing it off on the 15th so we don't have to wait that long. Very exciting. 15th of October. >> Yes. >> Wow.
42:10
Same day as the Tesla Model S Road Roadster or Tesla Roadster. >> Yeah, that's crazy.
42:15
On the Roadster, I've been looking at the weather in Texas.
42:20
>> Yeah, >> from what I'm seeing, the weather's been >> getting worse.
42:23
>> Good for >> I mean, it's >> Oh, a little tinfoil hat here. >> We got light wind. Okay. >> No rain. >> No rain.
42:32
and it's been somewhere around 90 every single day. Okay.
42:37
>> So, it seems like a pretty typical Austin fall weather.
42:42
>> So, >> well, it's possible that the Tesla team saw what happened with the the the Mission S needs to respond.
42:47
They're going to do internal combustion engine. >> There we go. >> Manual gearbox. Crank start.
42:56
>> Cranking starting your Tesla road. >> Yeah.
42:59
says, "Uh, maybe they they they put a top hat and driving gloves in it." >> That'd be great. I'd like that.
43:04
Uh, the Jaguar Type01 was revealed. 1,00 horsepower.
43:11
Uh, it is electric, but the design has evolved just a little bit from the original concept car, but Galopnik likes it.
43:19
They say, "Is everyone ready to be calm and normal about the new Jaguar yet?"
43:23
uh 400 mile range and even wilder than the concept.
43:30
Uh I think there's no arguing that the type against there's I think there's no arguing against the Jaguar Type 00 concept being the most talked about car of the past 2 years even as we've gotten closer and closer to the reveal of the production type01 and it seemed like there couldn't possibly be any more discourse about it.
43:45
I'm not here to add to that discourse because it's frankly exhausting.
43:49
I just want to talk about the car, which I find to be extremely cool uh uh regardless of whether or not it will actually be a success.
43:55
Jaguar uh just revealed a the type 01.
43:58
Um it does feel like a car that exists because the cyber truck exists.
44:04
It feels like the Cybert truck sort of not really ushered in a new era of brutalist modern cyberpunk aesthetics, but it certainly shook some trees loose where designers were able to take more risks at a time when cars were collapsing down to, you know, the Jaguar F-Type and the and an Aston Martin and a and a like a BMW.
44:29
Like they all started looking pretty similar.
44:31
Um, and there were just these form factors.
44:33
A lot of that was for safety reasons, but a lot of it's just for logical like what the market will buy.
44:38
Everything winds up looking the same.
44:40
And when the Cybert truck came out, even though it wasn't like a blockbuster seller, I think it just let people know that like it's worth taking some risk every once in a while in your portfolio.
44:49
Um, and so this the new Ari the Cybert truck. That's the ideal.
44:54
>> The new threecar garage.
44:56
>> That's the ideal threecar garage. >> Type one. >> Yep.
44:58
>> New Valari Cybertruck.
44:58
You actually have all your bases.
45:01
You are in the cyberpunk future if you have those three cars.
45:05
>> The best part about this Jag uh Jaguar Type 1 is that it's powered by Nvidia.
45:10
>> Under its stunning design is Nvidia Hyperion, the computer and sensor platform that takes in everything the car sees and senses, then helps it make smarter decisions in real time.
45:18
It's paired with Nvidia Halos, a safety system that covers everything from the chips to the software.
45:24
Before reaching the road, type one software passed 150,000 tests over tens of thousands of hours.
45:32
Is Jensen going to deliver self-driving capabilities?
45:37
Do you think that where that's where this is going?
45:40
>> I certainly hope so, but uh yeah, everything I've seen has just >> you basically need Jensen to step in and actually like fix Yeah. Like please >> Yeah.
45:49
No, >> please fix this issue.
45:50
>> I think you'll see a lot of >> this car.
45:51
This car >> looks amazing.
45:54
>> I I think it looks amazing. >> Yeah.
45:56
>> Uh again, it it's, you know, I'm still trying to figure out who the buyer is.
46:03
>> Is there more than is there more than 5,000 buyers of this vehicle >> in the US? >> Uh a lot of buyers.
46:09
You'll you'll see people with this car and they'll have the bumper sticker on the back.
46:13
I bought this before Elon completed his $40 billion debt raise to buy Nvidia GPUs which are in this car.
46:21
I don't support Elon, but I do I I'm giving Nvidia a pass because that was an armslength transaction.
46:29
I just like the Jaguar brand.
46:32
I think people will bring a lot of nuance uh of what's going on in the financial markets to their expression of this vehicle because if if you're just driving this, people might think that you're okay with Elon's debt raise to buy Nvidia GPUs, which are of course powering the typo one, a lot of people will ask you, "Oh, I guess you're an Elon guy if you drive this."
46:50
And you'll be like, "No, no, no.
46:53
I bought it before Apollo brought the two-page memo to investment committee and approved the $40 billion debt raise."
47:00
and then and then securitized it.
47:03
>> And the memo clearly said they were going to put the GPUs in space, which >> no, it said somewhere in the universe, which could be in a car, >> could be space, >> could be anywhere.
47:11
>> Um, >> technically, >> one notable thing, the car is going to be coming in uh starting at 130,000 USD, which actually feels lower >> based on the sort of like silhouette style.
47:23
Totally like it feels like >> it's as bold as the luche.
47:24
It's as >> or it fits in.
47:26
You could see the same person that would be going for a Continental GT or maybe the Rollctor Crazy, >> right? Yeah.
47:34
>> Uh deciding to pick this up. >> This is interesting. >> So, it's interesting.
47:37
It's got to be able to drive itself.
47:41
>> That's going to be my criticism for every >> daily every car in the daily driver category. >> Every car. >> Okay. >> Drive itself. Yeah. >> Drive yourself.
47:50
>> Let me tell you about public investing.
47:52
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47:55
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48:04
Uh >> David Holes, please uh shares reflecting on 1920s images of people working on massive generators for the electric electrification of the modern world makes me realize that the past was wildly futuristic, too.
48:16
Uh, this image was so seeing this was honestly depressing to me in some ways because it felt like it feels in some ways like a midjourney image of >> the future and yet we were doing this over a hundred years ago. >> Mhm.
48:34
>> Um, and uh, it really makes you we don't know the story.
48:37
These guys could be laring.
48:40
These could be larpers and this could all be cardboard and they could be like, "Yeah, let's just we got we got to build something really cool and take a photo of it."
48:49
And so they just built something huge, but it actually has no functional purpose. You don't know. >> You don't know.
48:55
But I think it's real because we did get the electrification. We enjoy it every day. >> That's right.
49:01
>> I think it was possible. We did it. >> We did it.
49:05
>> We created more ad space.
49:05
You saw this DIY device turns your car window into a digital billboard.
49:11
They said it couldn't be done, but we did it. Uh DIY system.
49:17
It's called Hollow Glass, and it turns your car into a moving display.
49:19
Can turn almost any car window into a digital display for ads. This is the future.
49:24
It allows you to basically digitize the exterior of your windows to share content on the go, says the founder, who I invited on the show.
49:34
Hopefully we'll get them soon.
49:36
You can literally pop it in, pop it out.
49:38
We make them for all makes and models.
49:40
If you're getting a Jaguar Type 01, get a couple of these in there. Offset that cost. Run some ads.
49:48
An app controls what you see from videos on your phone to a custom sign you can generate in seconds.
49:52
The system patrol out for the >> You can do whatever you want >> for the other, you know, citizens sitting in traffic. >> Yes. Yes.
50:01
Originally, it this is extremely cyberpunk.
50:03
If you're running this with the with the new Ari with the Cybert truck, with the with the Jaguar Typo One, and you're just blaring ads, look at this. It it attaches.
50:14
That's just a full-on projector.
50:16
This this companyy's hilarious.
50:18
Just like that is just an off-the-shelf projector, and they're just selling you a projector and a mount and software system. >> It's brilliant, John. >> It's brilliant. We love it.
50:27
I we were I was getting worried that uh there weren't going to be that many more ad inventory services. So, we solved it. >> What does it cost?
50:36
And then what kind of revenue can you generate if you opt into serving ads?
50:41
>> It starts at about $300.
50:43
>> I feel like this will math out.
50:43
It depends on the audience is what matters.
50:47
So, where are you driving this?
50:48
Because if you're driving this around Sand Hill Road and you're advertising a bunch of really high ticket items to venture capitalists, could be really high uh AOV, really high arpoo.
51:01
But if you're driving it around some place where people don't have as much disposable income, you're not going to be seeing the same CPMs.
51:10
So where you drive the car really matters. It's gonna change.
51:14
It's going to change driving routes because you're going to be like, "Yes, yes, I could take the freeway, but if I go through this neighborhood and drive all the way past every mansion in the Hollywood Hills, you will get more ad impressions.
51:28
You will make more money on the way to work. What do you think?
51:32
>> How much do you think uh somebody in a city like LA could make on a daily basis?" >> I don't know. They give a dollar. I have no idea.
51:42
I think that uh I think it probably costs a lot more than that to run like one of those taxi ads on the top of a roof on a per day basis. >> Mhm.
51:54
>> So I think the math could actually be pretty compelling, right?
51:56
If you can >> pay basically pay back the the unit in 6 months and then from that point on you're just getting paid to commute. >> I like it. I like it.
52:06
Uh, one one more, you know, one additional step to making the world more filled with ads. >> Yes. Yes.
52:14
Let me tell you about Crowd Strike. Your business is AI.
52:16
Their business is securing it.
52:18
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52:21
Uh, we have Walter Russell me, the distinguished fellow from the Hudson Institute in the waiting room.
52:29
Let's bring him into the TV. Walter, what's going on?
52:33
Thank you so much for taking the time to join the show. How are you doing? I'm doing all right. How are you? >> We're good. We're good.
52:38
Um I'm I'm very interested to go all over the place.
52:43
There's so many different topics we can talk about, but I would like to go deeper on like how are you doing?
52:46
What how what is the most significant uh story that you are following these days?
52:54
Is it more geopolitical or are you starting to grapple with AI more?
52:57
What is pulling your interest more?
53:04
Well, I would say it's the the sort of big story that that we're looking at today is we're still living in the breakup of the kind of midcentury model of democratic capitalism in the western countries.
53:19
A strong middle class with mass manufacturing as the kind of basis, mass consumption as the economic engine driving things along.
53:29
There were a lot of bad things about it, but for a lot of a lot of people, it it represented well, in many ways, the happiest condition the human race had ever been in. >> Yeah.
53:42
>> Kids were going to school, they weren't in coal mines.
53:44
Parents weren't worried about um you know, job security, stuff like that.
53:50
And people really figured, especially say 1990 or so when the Soviet Union fell, hey, it's not, you know, this isn't just the end of history in some Hegelian ideological sense.
54:04
>> The kind of society we built in the West, mass middle class society, democratic market capitalism with a social safety net, we finished. >> We've done it. We figured it out. >> Yeah.
54:18
And then, you know, and not only we figured out domestically, we'd figured out how to do peace globally. >> Yeah.
54:26
>> You know, World War I, World War II, pretty shocking horrors.
54:28
Fascism, communism, ending with, for crying out loud, nuclear weapons, >> right?
54:35
People were, you know, humanity was having a great mental breakdown.
54:42
And then it seemed in the 50s and 60s, we kind of we figured it out. We stopped the wars.
54:46
We had an alliance system that that was keeping the peace.
54:49
We had and ultimately we we win the Soviet Union without a war.
54:56
>> So without a without a nuclear war and and so ever since then we've been bit by bit watching this thing kind of rot. >> Yeah.
55:06
>> Much to everybody's surprise.
55:09
And a lot of our political intellectual life today is a who done it.
55:11
You know who murdered this beautiful, fantastic utopia?
55:19
>> The left tells a story, the right tells a story.
55:22
I might mention today on October 7th, a lot of people tell the oldest conspiracy story of all, which was it was the Jews that done it. >> Yeah.
55:32
>> So, we are in instead of celebrating the end of history, we're looking at the end of America.
55:38
Mark or maybe with AI the end of life on Earth or of humanity. >> Yeah.
55:45
>> Uh that's what I'm thinking about. >> Yeah.
55:47
How much >> simple stuff. >> Yeah.
55:49
I mean when you when you >> and I think I'm optimistic we can get to the bottom of it.
55:54
>> We'll solve >> in the next 25 minutes.
55:57
>> Uh as you as you uh you know investigate a long historical arc, how much time do you spend focused on why questions?
56:06
You know, Peter Teal has this concept of like why questions are overdetermined.
56:12
People tell the stories like you mentioned with the left and the right versus maybe there is more value in just trying to understand what happened, who was involved uh and and less about why things happened.
56:25
How have you grappled with that question of like how much of a narrative arc do we need versus how much do we just need to understand what actually happened throughout history?
56:37
Well, you know, to to think that you can understand a what without at least some element of why in there, >> you know, did the Roman Empire fall or was it pushed?
56:48
>> Um, you know, that that's a why question and a what question.
56:52
>> Yeah, I suppose you're right.
56:54
>> What I try to do is to, you know, sort of well, let's let's take this very basic question.
57:00
The materialists would say, you know, the philosophical materialists that production determines everything.
57:07
I'm kind of channeling Marx here a little bit.
57:11
>> So that, you know, the great music of the Beethoven era was essentially driven by the new pianos that were arriving on scene.
57:20
Your idealists would say okay people had this idea about beautiful music that could be played which drove the invention of the pianos on which then you played them.
57:34
>> I don't know that you h that you can or should utterly feel that you have to resolve a philosophical question like that without being able to say something meaningful about where history is going or how we got here. Mhm.
57:49
>> So, I think you've got to leave you got to leave yourself some space. >> Mhm.
57:53
>> But I don't think you can give up completely on trying to figure out, okay, is there some sort of meaningful pattern in all of this data that I've got lying around? >> No, I agree.
58:04
You mentioned the '9s as a utopian era.
58:08
I remember them sim similarly.
58:11
I agree with that uh that perception, but I've always been interested in understanding the logic of >> what one years old, one year old when when the '90s started.
58:24
So >> I was 10 by the end.
58:26
>> It was probably a pretty darn good decade. >> It was fantastic. The Legos zero. >> Exactly.
58:32
Uh but I've always been fascinated by the folks that say, uh no, the turning point wasn't uh 9/11. It wasn't in the '9s.
58:38
It wasn't World uh World Trade Organization. It was actually in 1971.
58:43
There's this website WTF happened in 1971 and the crypto community for a long time was like that's when we got off the gold standard.
58:51
There's all these different rationes that point to 1971.
58:53
How have you grappled with that question of is 1971 actually the the pivotal turning point in American history?
59:04
Well, you know, you would then ask yourself like what made 19 what happened to make 1971 1971?
59:11
Maybe that's the turning point of history, right?
59:13
1971 is just when all these trends became manifest.
59:16
And in itself, that's sort of meaningless. >> Yeah.
59:22
Because in fact, we'd been, you know, just to take the gold standard, we'd been slithering off the gold standard for a long time before we sort of stop the hypocritical pretense that there actually still was one.
59:36
>> Y >> um and so I think there's I would I would have a hard time saying, okay, that was the year.
59:44
>> The other thing is we're talking about a sort of massive array of processes.
59:46
Um I think in some I think in some ways the modern consumer society reminds me a little bit about some certain types of crops exhaust the soil.
1:00:01
>> So the first time you plant cotton on virgin soil you got a fantastic crop but after about 10 years the plants start getting weaker and the yields drop.
1:00:09
This is one reason in in the slavery days the south had to keep pushing for more more land because it was exhausting the land. >> Interesting.
1:00:20
>> What they used and in some ways if you think about the sort of corrosion of social capital, the um kind of decay of some of the elements that make our society work, we do look a little bit like a like a cotton field that has been farmed on a monocrop too long. Mhm. Interesting.
1:00:42
>> And so that doesn't lead you to say, okay, there's one day or one event or one year that changed everything.
1:00:47
It says, you know, we've been on this we've been on a journey and the direction of the journey is not in every way a positive thing.
1:00:59
Uh people like to talk about the the vibe session that we're currently in where you can look at a lot of facts that point to society being you know better than it ever has been in many ways and yet people certainly don't feel that way.
1:01:16
I'm wondering if throughout, you know, the period that we've been talking '7s, '8s, '9s, etc.
1:01:19
, there was ever that like such a maybe disconnect between uh how people were feeling at the time.
1:01:30
Like were they was everyone feeling like it we were living in this incredible utopia in the 90s where people walking around just being like life is just so awesome or was was it the same set of circumstances where you know many people were sort of had had their frustrations?
1:01:47
Well, you know, from about from about mid 1965 or so to early 1980s, there was actually a pretty bad patch, you know.
1:01:59
Um, uh, it's it's when you get old guys like me who who grew up in in in that time and we hear the Zoomer saying, "Oh, this is terrible.
1:02:08
We're going to be the first generation that doesn't live as well as our parents."
1:02:12
We sort of think, "Oh, that's so cute.
1:02:14
I want to pinch your little cheeks.
1:02:16
That's just the way I was when I was a kid.
1:02:20
Because the boomers were going to be the first post American generation.
1:02:27
We had left behind all that stupid American ideology, the war in Vietnam, the civil rights movement.
1:02:32
Oh, we saw through the American, you know, red, white, and blue, blah, blah, blah.
1:02:38
And also, we were the least religious generation anybody had ever seen.
1:02:42
And as we looked at our living, we we came out of the college into the stagflation of the 1970s when we started wanting to buy houses in like 1980.
1:02:54
Mortgage rates were 21% 21%. >> Okay. We were so screwed. That's how we felt.
1:03:04
And um you know, and then of course things kind of worked out.
1:03:08
Not for everybody, but for a lot of us it ended up working out okay. >> Yeah.
1:03:14
Um, and so on the one hand, I think that makes people like me, we we resonate emotionally with the way people are are feeling their their situation, but but we also don't think the past was as utopian as some might say. And yet it did work out.
1:03:30
I think it underlined optimism, but more, you know, this optimism, pessimism thing, how are things going?
1:03:41
I I kind of think the industrial revolution, you know, humanity's modern era is really short.
1:03:48
Um, you know, it's just a ve a flash of time, a few generations.
1:03:55
And this idea that we understand it. We've mastered it.
1:03:57
We are totally in control of the dynamics, I think, is is kind of ludicrous when you really think about it.
1:04:05
But think of industrial the industrial revolution.
1:04:07
Human societyy's kind of like a caterpillar.
1:04:09
Um you know then you then there's a ter it ends in these terrible storms of the mid 20th century and then the caterpillar gets into a cocoon which is what I sort of think of this midentury model of stable democratic capitalism.
1:04:27
And what's happening now all right is the cocoon is starting to rot.
1:04:32
And if we don't get out of the cocoon, we're going to be in terrible trouble.
1:04:37
But the fundamental underlying thing is a is good >> because if we can manage to claw our way out of this sticky decaying mess, once very functional and necessary, but now, you know, just clogging clogging everything. All right.
1:04:57
Then then we have a new and better life, I think. >> Mhm.
1:05:01
So, it seems to me that both the the the pessimistic vibe, the negative vibe of the decaying cocoon, and that the old realities aren't working for us anymore.
1:05:14
And then the sense that, you know, wait a minute, there's a lot of really amazing things happening in this technology.
1:05:20
There really is there's the potential here to live far better than anyone has lived before.
1:05:27
So I kind of see that's how I reconcile the the two sides of the psychological experience that people are talking about.
1:05:37
>> How do you reconcile the the psychology in America with the psychology in China?
1:05:43
It feels like in America, at least in San Francisco, there's been a lot of internalization of this idea of artificial intelligence, recursive self-improvement, artificial general intelligence, super intelligence, and the knock-on effects of that.
1:06:02
And the US government is grappling with that.
1:06:05
There's a new dinner every week with the AI leaders.
1:06:10
uh it feels like China has not fully woken up, has not changed their stance at all.
1:06:15
Are we just not seeing enough of what's happening or do you think that they have a fundamentally different view of the future and what they want to build as a society?
1:06:25
>> Yeah, I think they do have a different view.
1:06:27
Now, we're talking again there's, you know, 1.
1:06:29
2 billion people in China.
1:06:31
They have a lot of different views. Yeah.
1:06:33
But if we talk about the sort of dominant forces in the CCP that are setting the public conversation and the policy agenda, >> um I think they see information technology as fundamentally the both the vindicator and the enabler of socialist planned economies. >> Sure.
1:06:53
>> You know, like why has China been able to make something out of Marxism while the Soviet Union just made a horrible stinking mess? All right.
1:07:02
Um it's you know in their mind it's that they're getting this information >> and they're getting the feedback you know the the market system provides feedback to decision makers through price mechanisms and so on.
1:07:15
So that you know there's there's a way and and and then a democratic process.
1:07:20
So when the people are angry the political leaders feel the anger and it causes them to change direction.
1:07:28
um to to a lot of the sort of engineerbased and trained Chinese leaders, this seems like a very messy, wasteful thing.
1:07:36
Far more scientific >> to build a, you know, a national panopticon that allows the state to see everything, know everything.
1:07:48
And then AI offers the possibility of you know superior ability to integrate and see the patterns and use those patterns to implement the plans of the communist party.
1:08:02
Now, and from that perspective, the problem with AI is not that it's going to become some sort of super intelligent being, but that AI may not stick with the Communist Party ideas that that, you know, from the standpoint of not even, you know, you know, infinitely self-improving AI or self-conscious AI, but just ordinary garden variety AI.
1:08:32
Dang uh uh Xiinping thought >> isn't like fundamental principles of the universe but it's a sandbox that you want to get out of >> and you tell me to solve a problem well I am going to do it in ways that have nothing to I'm going to see the problem in my own way and the solutions in my own way and they it may not have that much to do with building a new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics. >> So that worries them.
1:09:07
>> How how have you uh thought about the various developments in the technology world that in my mind have pushed America towards more Chinese-like characteristics.
1:09:19
I'm thinking specifically of CCTV cameras, which have been popular in China for decades.
1:09:24
And just over the last year, there has been a huge rise of license plate reader cameras.
1:09:34
Flock safety has been at the front of the charge there.
1:09:35
And then immense push back from the American populace around that.
1:09:39
It felt like we dipped our toe as Americans in becoming more Chinese in our uh oversight and then maybe pulled back.
1:09:48
And I'm wondering uh uh what that impulse is, how we are grappling with this idea of of giving up some of what it means to be American in favor of efficiency and then dialing it back and maybe foregoing some of the benefits of the Chinese models in various places for what is truly American.
1:10:14
Well, if you to me when you when you look at this problem, it comes down to a problem of how do you have a an information empowered and informed state >> which is strong enough to protect the people from foreign enemies, >> maintain order at home, but then is not itself a greater threat to the liberties of the people than any of the external or internal threats that it attempts. to regulate, >> right?
1:10:44
And the thing is that is not a 21st century problem.
1:10:48
That is exactly the problem that the founders were sitting around thinking about in Philadelphia in 1789. Exactly the problem. Mhm.
1:11:00
>> It's the problem that British political thinkers were wrestling with, you know, in the 17th century in the Civil War, in the Cromwell era, in the in the restoration overthrow of James II and the glorious revolution.
1:11:13
That's the central problem of the kind of AngloAmerican political tradition.
1:11:22
And it actually it strikes me that this this rich tradition of grappling with this is going to enable us to think creatively about the new problems.
1:11:34
I mean, let's just take one that if we're really going to get the greatest benefit of technology in healthcare and and medical science, ideally, you really want the the researchers to have access to all the data about everybody.
1:11:55
you know, the health, you know, what drugs are you taking, what's your genotype, blah, you know, what treatments work for what people and be able to analyze this stuff and boom, boom, boom, out come a lot of really critical discoveries and much better treatment for individuals. We want this.
1:12:11
On the other hand, the thought of the government having all of that information or for that matter corporations having all of that information is more than a little chilling. Mhm. >> All right.
1:12:23
So, how do you balance the various elements of that and the and the tradeoffs?
1:12:32
>> How do you get the most benefit while while preserving the most liberty?
1:12:34
You know, can you develop reliable anonymization techniques?
1:12:41
You know, how do you maybe compensate people for the use of their medical information so that the the wealth it creates is is shared, etc. et, etc. , etc.
1:12:52
Um, those are exactly the kinds of problems that our political system evolved to address.
1:13:04
>> And we, you know, we certainly don't have a 250-year record of getting it right all the time. >> Right.
1:13:10
But I would say the fact that we're still struggling after all this time indicate and and we're struggling at higher and higher levels. >> Yeah.
1:13:18
I mean again you think about the arrival of the car which is a much more revolutionary technology and a much more expensive technology.
1:13:28
You think about you know 30 to 40,000 people killed a year on American roads for like a hundred years.
1:13:34
This is this is a lot of people.
1:13:38
>> Um and it's a lot of young people etc.
1:13:41
The disruptive effect of cars on lifestyle blah blah blah.
1:13:43
But if you're going to have cars, you're going to have to have a national registry of car owners.
1:13:51
You know, we got to know or at least a state reg who owns a car.
1:13:55
>> You've got to have an incredible Think about the the extent to which our court system has evolved and grown over like every time there's a fender bender, all of this has to happen, right?
1:14:07
>> How about all the insane codes that have to go into building highways, right?
1:14:13
actually a a road building code for horses and buggies is not that hard.
1:14:16
The kind of government that can maintain a dirt road so that a you know a donkey cart can go down that road is very different from what kind of government you need that can operate a six-lane superighway etc etc etc.
1:14:33
So what you had was go the government is becoming more powerful, more complex, more knowledgeable about you as well as other things.
1:14:47
And yet your individual freedom has grown because you know you're you're traveling around, you're doing what you want to do.
1:14:55
You have more economic, social opportunities.
1:14:57
So the tr it's not necessarily a tradeoff that is a limiting tradeoff. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, I like that.
1:15:08
>> How are you how are you trying to forecast the impact impact of AI over the next call it five years?
1:15:13
I think one of the biggest challenges right now is that the people sort of most knowledgeable with the technology often have an incentive to try to make you think one way or another based around where they work and and uh you know what what what equities they hold, let's say.
1:15:35
Um and then the other aspect that I think you can lean you know lean a lot on history is the um you know basically just just you know humans I think we can bet on humans not changing very much at least until most of us have chips in our brain or or wherever things are going.
1:15:54
uh and then uh just how sort of like stable our our legal system will be given that it is sort of ultimately driven by uh human decision-m um and so you know we spend a lot of our time trying to just wrestle with these ideas but I'm curious your view um and uh where you would lean on history for the next five years.
1:16:22
Well, um it is uh you're right to be thinking about this stuff obviously.
1:16:27
Um and part of the problem in thinking about is there just too many variables, too many unknowns.
1:16:33
Um you know, will the technology advance as projected?
1:16:37
If it does advance as projected, will the impact be the same?
1:16:42
um you know the various ways in which the inflationary and the deflationary consequences of AI play out in the economy are you know offer many different scenarios.
1:16:58
One one thing I I think we can be clear about is that we tend to underestimate systematically underestimate human adaptability is people are really pretty bad as a species about averting future catastrophes by wise and prudent behavior.
1:17:19
Now, it's like, you know, I know that eating junk food gives you heart attacks, but that bag of Doritas just looks good.
1:17:26
And, you know, and and people, you know, whether you think about climate change, you can think about a million things where people can see the oncoming catastrophe staring them in the face and they just reach for that bag of Doritos.
1:17:40
Um, but on the other hand, when trouble finally comes, humanity is incredibly good at adapting.
1:17:50
So, you know, AI, you know, the sort of oncoming train coming down, you know, at you through the tunnel. We can see it. We're not very good.
1:18:01
We have not been very good, and I doubt we'll be very good at controlling, preventing, whatever.
1:18:06
But you know will people figure out new ways to make livingings doing using this stuff? I think so.
1:18:16
In if you had said to people in 1850 when over half the population made its living basically by growing commodities in the soil um that by that you know the in the future less than 1% of Americans would make their living that way.
1:18:31
They would say, "Well, you'd have mass mobs and starvation and all of these things."
1:18:38
A real visionary person might say, "Well, you know, we're going to be building these horseless carriages.
1:18:44
We're going to be building flying machines, heavier than air flying machines, and there'll be jobs."
1:18:48
But no one would have guessed that in the future people could make a really nice living writing letters saying that people's pets were emotional support animals so that the pets could fly with them on the the heavier than air flying machines. Right?
1:19:05
It's um the the inventiveness of people seeing new opportunities and new technologies.
1:19:14
Now, from a policy point of view, I think we've got to be thinking about ways of of facilitating adaptation, uh, can we make it easier to start new businesses?
1:19:28
Can we make it easier to start businesses that have um a small number of employees so that somebody with three employees doesn't fall into the clutches of the you know the labor bureaucracy of a of a a city that's built for large corporations that have big human rights offices.
1:19:49
Um, so how do we, you know, those kinds of things, but you also look, if you can look back at the history of the industrial revolution and you see how American society gradually developed these ideas for, you know, how to how can we support the rise of this new economy.
1:20:12
So think of all the departments and universities the research whether it's on metallurgy and and that side of things or how about on management and business and finance and administration.
1:20:27
None of that stuff really existed as academic disciplines in 1850. Right?
1:20:33
So, how do we start retooling American education, American culture, American government around emerging technologies?
1:20:44
I think that's that's going to be a more fruitful approach.
1:20:50
And at the same time, obviously, how do we deal with some of the consequences?
1:20:55
You know, I if if the self-driving cars continue to get better and get more numerous, there's going to be a lot of people that are not going to have jobs pretty soon.
1:21:04
And truck drivers don't like it when when they're when they can't make a living driving trucks anymore. and bureaucracies.
1:21:11
I think um I sometimes tell my students that a a bureaucracy is a primitive form of AI in which human beings rather than silicon chips apply algorithms to data and that's a pretty automatable process.
1:21:34
That's a lot of white collar workers. Yeah.
1:21:36
>> How fast all of this happens.
1:21:36
Um how quickly people are able to find new ways of making a living.
1:21:46
how quickly we find ways um you know specialization of labor I think will still be here in an age of AI like we all could develop agents or we all could have you know we all could do everything that needs to be done from our computers with AI but most of us won't want to um you won't want to be an expert on some on on the technology you'll want to be able to use the technology technology or have somebody do it for you.
1:22:16
There was a time when um you know so I you know there will be way there will be new industries, new jobs.
1:22:28
We just need to move as quickly as we can to pave the way for them, help entrepreneurs develop it, and then provide a social safety net for people adjusting because, you know, we're not going to all end up having only f making money off only fans or being influencers or or these kinds of things.
1:22:48
U you know, there has to be a way forward for people so that they'll support the changes and the development that we all need. >> I love it. >> Yeah.
1:22:59
What about the like do you do you feel like the deflationary effects of AI are currently under discussed?
1:23:07
It see obviously like 90% of people's attention is around the sort of safety debate, but it just feels like we're we're we're already at the point where 70 80% of the time AI can can make, you know, have a pretty good crack at like let's say like creating a legal document or or doing doing some of your accounting or or any of these things.
1:23:36
one of the other side of the sort of potential risk of the labor market is that normal people globally will get access to uh the services that have been reserved for uh uh higher income people uh at at next to nothing, right?
1:23:54
Like you can imagine getting many of these services on the free tier of various AI products. Yeah.
1:24:03
Well, look, I think that that part I think is fundamentally really really good.
1:24:07
You know, the the industrial revolution made a huge proportion of humanity and a growing proportion rich in terms of goods.
1:24:17
You go back to 1800, you'd have like, you know, two pots and a pan, three shirts, you know, >> a good life, >> maybe a pair of shoes, >> right?
1:24:30
Um, and you know th those things were expensive.
1:24:33
Manufactured means made by hand.
1:24:37
>> They were expensive and built to last.
1:24:39
And this idea that clothing was a form of expression.
1:24:42
You had to be super rich for the concept of fashion to have any connection with your life. >> Yeah. >> Right.
1:24:51
Um, so right now I think most of us take for granted a stupifying abundance of just basic material stuff.
1:25:04
>> But on the other hand, our society, you know, there there's a lot of ser acute service poverty in our society and a lot of fundamental services are super expensive.
1:25:18
So yeah, in the future, the average person is going to have the the same, you know, access to a great lawyer or at least the abilities of a great lawyer at an affordable price.
1:25:32
And that is one working definition of economic progress is things that used to only the super rich used to be able to have, then the ordinary rich get them, and then the affluent get them, and it just percolates on down.
1:25:45
I think of wedding planners. >> Oh yeah.
1:25:49
>> When I was a kid, you sort of had to be a Rockefeller or a movie star for a wedding planner to be a feature of this.
1:25:58
>> It is now really that profession is a fixture >> in people's lives. All right.
1:26:02
There's lots of things like that.
1:26:05
I wouldn't be surprised in the future if you have your own like stylist.
1:26:11
Everybody has a personal stylist who knows you, you know, has got access to everything on the internet and AI about styling and sourcing and stuff and is making individually made.
1:26:27
You don't go to the store and buy pre-made clothes.
1:26:29
You get things that are made for you, for your look, by your person. >> This is utopia. I love it.
1:26:37
But you know and the same you know with your nutritionist >> no completely tracks. Yeah.
1:26:46
>> Uh so this all I think is there and can happen you know this is get we got to get out of the cocoon and flap our wings. >> I love it. >> I like the analogy. Last question.
1:26:55
Uh do you think the the quote unquote experts can make a comeback?
1:27:01
There's I feel like we're at an all-time low of trusting experts across basically every domain, economy, geopolitics, etc.
1:27:13
Uh, >> do you mean institutions?
1:27:16
>> Institutions, but also now I I I feel like if you see like a something like an article online >> Yeah.
1:27:25
>> where it's like 24 out of 25 experts say this >> Yeah.
1:27:30
>> Yeah. Then >> I mean there's even skepticism about like what the president says he says he's going to do something and people are like ah you know maybe it might have been a joke who knows might have been AI might have been fake >> but but yes >> and it applies like all over the place interesting right yeah now this is you know one of the key things in that mid-century model of the American system
1:27:52
>> was between the plureaucrats and the very wealthy people and then you know the sort of poorer people you had that you had that college educated objective stratum of experts, managers, administrators >> who allegedly, you know, you repress the greed of the bureaucrats because if they get everything they want, you know, the the it'll cause so much ruckus the country will fall into socialism. But on
1:28:18
But on the other hand, if the unwashed masses can do everything they want, goodness knows what they'll get up to.
1:28:24
And we have to so you have to have prohibition and you have to regulate what they see and and in many ways what they do.
1:28:31
And that was the job of this kind of upper middle class group of reformers, progressives and so on.
1:28:39
And their their role is being fundamentally challenged in all kinds of ways.
1:28:46
in all kinds of ways. One of the things is that in that in the cocoon era where society was relatively stable and we sort of thought we had the answer to everything like okay the economy you have a recession all right let's just read up here in in Kanes chapter 7 it
1:29:04
says do this so we do this um you know we we allegedly knew what the answers to all policy problems basically were and it was and the job of politicians was to sort of summon up a political coalition that could do enough of the right things so that we would would would move forward. We're now in an age
1:29:26
We're now in an age where nobody knows the answers like your question about AI.
1:29:32
Who really knows what we're going to be dealing with in 5 years?
1:29:37
You know, nobody who really knows how to solve the problems of a technology that nobody understands.
1:29:47
Nobody who knows how to manage the geopolitical competition between the United States and China with all of the intricate interdependencies and so on.
1:29:57
There's not a rule book for for much of this stuff.
1:30:03
But for the last, you know, this is part of my idea of the of the fertility of the soil wearing out, the university culture, the intellectual culture has become much more wonkish, much much less the creative innovator or the, you know, deep sold investigator,
1:30:26
but it's the one who had one who can get the good grades, get the right answers on all the tests, and is expert in the methodologies, the received methodologies and knows how to navigate the conventional wisdom and that works as long as society is in some sort of a stasis. But when it isn't and these waves of
1:30:47
But when it isn't and these waves of change are coming through, the experts aren't as good as they used to be.
1:30:57
>> They don't know the answers.
1:30:57
And as individuals, as people, many of them just don't have the experiences or the personal qualities to deal wisely and effectively with the uncertainties that they face. >> Yeah.
1:31:09
I never was sure that if it was just a function of the internet where historically you would receive media and there wasn't a public forum on which to push back or to fact check or to see fake news that sort of disagrees with the expert.
1:31:22
But um >> but yeah, your explanation makes a lot of sense and then I'm sure it's, you know, uh accelerated by by the the sort of current public forum.
1:31:31
But this was uh fascinating, Walter. Thank you for the time.
1:31:35
>> Thank you for taking the time to talk to us and thank you for uh writing in the Wall Street Journal.
1:31:38
We read the Wall Street Journal every day here and we appreciate all the >> May your tribe increase. Keep reading. Keep subscribing. Thank you.
1:31:48
>> Yes, we are completely agree. >> Cheers, Walter.
1:31:50
>> Have a great rest of your day. Goodbye.
1:31:52
Let me tell you about Railway.
1:31:52
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1:31:55
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1:32:01
We got a lightning round because we went over time with Walter Russell me.
1:32:05
We got Cat Cole, the CEO of AG1 here with us for the second time.
1:32:11
Welcome back to the show. How you doing? >> Hi.
1:32:13
I was enjoying listening to the cocoon era and the plureaucrats and the history lessons.
1:32:19
>> Are you in the cocoon era?
1:32:19
Are you expanding and spreading your wings, spreading your >> re butterfly butterfly?
1:32:23
Is this >> butterfly era? >> Give us the latest.
1:32:28
>> We have uh you know just continued the march to meet customers where they are launching additional products, new versions of AG1.
1:32:35
We launched >> AG1 Pro with creatine and HMBB for gut and muscle support.
1:32:41
It's been a sellout success.
1:32:43
We can't keep it in stock.
1:32:43
I think that is a real indication of the momentum coming from GLP1s and people wanting more gut and muscle support, but also the longevity movement.
1:32:54
Women, men, all ages from younger to older are really gravitating toward these more advanced foundational formulas.
1:33:00
Uh we launched gummies, one of the few NSF or sport certified gummies, like one of the most honest gummies out there that's clear about what's in it and third party certifying the label claim.
1:33:11
And uh this week we continue our march from Costco and Target into Walmart, Kroger, and Harris Teter.
1:33:21
We'll be at almost 10,000 doors uh brick and mortar retail by the end of this year.
1:33:27
Is AI good for you because people are asking about their health, getting more ideas, and AG1 has been around for so long that you're the first thing the model reaches for as an example, or is are there new challenges because people are going to be vibe coding their own formulas and buying raw ingredients by the ton and mixing up their own vitamin mixes? I don't know.
1:33:50
>> Yeah, I've got a humanoid back at home that's just mixing making.
1:33:51
I mean, you talked to some software people in San Francisco and they're like, I yeah, I will actually, you know, make my own my own CRM.
1:34:00
So, you know, maybe people will make >> Look, the answer is yes.
1:34:06
>> There's there's definitely uh continued lowered barriers to entry to make a thing, market a thing, stand up a site.
1:34:13
But for us being 16 years in and actually having more peer-reviewed and published human clinical trials and uh a lot more documented research over the years on both our ingredients and our finished formula.
1:34:25
What's interesting is we're moving from just the marketing era where the hype, the fear, the spin, the influencer helped get you to try something now to the agentic search era which is actually pulling and referencing those peer-reviewed studies.
1:34:43
>> So, we're seeing more people saying, "Oh, I was searching which multivitamin or which gut health product has the most clinical research and AG1 popped up."
1:34:52
And people will say, "I didn't know it was a gut health product."
1:34:53
And actually several of our peer-reviewed and published studies are about the outcomes, the beneficial bacteria, the short- chain fatty acids, etc.
1:35:01
So on a on the pure customer education and clarity side, you all were talking about trust uh with your previous guest.
1:35:09
I I think it's a good thing because people can cut through the noise, but we've also all had the experience where depending on how you ask the question, you get one answer and then you correct it and it says, "Oh, that's right. You're right.
1:35:24
Here's a different answer.
1:35:26
So, uh, our multi-million dollar, multi-year investment in scientific human trials, peer-reviewed, placeboc controlled, and randomized, >> takes a while for that to provide a real ROI because not everyone knows how to read these studies.
1:35:40
Not everyone wants to go deep, but they do want to understand who to trust and what to trust.
1:35:45
And the agentic search >> uh is providing a connection between a customer's questions and the actual evidence that a brand or a product has. >> Yeah.
1:35:54
So many brands don't have any specifically in health and supplements, they have they have no substance, right?
1:36:00
So it's like there's an ad, there's a landing page, there's some product details, but like the next five questions that you might ask to assess the product, there's actually no like there's no answers.
1:36:11
Like you can ask as many questions as you want.
1:36:13
you'd probably have to sit down with the founder and try to tease some of the stuff out because a lot of it is just not online.
1:36:19
And the the honest truth is that a lot of it is just, >> you know, they went to a co-manufacturer and the manufacturer said, >> "Here's a product that we make.
1:36:30
>> We promise that it doesn't have too much of these things in it and then the brand says we'll take we'll take 10,000 of them. Thank you."
1:36:36
And that's like >> it's interesting.
1:36:38
>> it's interesting. It's interesting as we bridge into retail and we we launched for 15 years with just DTOC then launched on Amazon we're having absolute banger Amazon Prime days which is rad um right now so it's great right but right as we are continuing to expand our portfolio and innovate with Costco who we launched with first and innovate with Target and now launching where where America shops which is also Costco
1:37:05
target Walmart Kroger vitamin shop etc and The very thing that drives retail velocity and repeat is the same thing that drives sticky DTOC high LTV customers which is great experience great recommendation but is demand the actual demand generation that is increasingly coming from agentic search so what we were talking about um social commerce Tik Tok shop tribe others they're they're not just transaction platforms their discovery platform. So
1:37:38
So when you put together social commerce is a platform for discovery.
1:37:42
Agentic search as a place for research customization and understanding the truth of a product if you you know if the questions are asked in the right way and if the brand has their information published that isn't only good for DTOC or for a brand.
1:37:59
It's what retailers want.
1:37:59
All the retailers are telling us they're saying it in their earnings calls.
1:38:02
We want brands that have real demand driven by modern tools in in today's approach to demand generation and content.
1:38:10
And so it's been really fun having multiple channels now with these incredible retailers as a place to drive return on the investment into new ways that people can discover our product, which then drives more return on the now 5 years of additional human clinical trials that we've been making.
1:38:31
uh that are the right thing to do.
1:38:34
They provide trust and confidence in the product.
1:38:36
There's certainly a great pillar to stand on when someone has questions about the product, but now increasingly they're actually the science is the marketing.
1:38:45
The science is the search result and that drives pull through to multiple channels. >> That's fantastic.
1:38:50
>> How how efficient do you think H1 can get?
1:38:53
Like do you think you can is there a path to to 10xing revenue while you know one and a halfxing headcount?
1:38:59
like how are you thinking about, you know, these new uh >> new tools and and just with how much consumer brand like how competitive the market is and how much you need to theoretically you want to be spending every incremental dollar on demand generation. >> Absolutely. >> Absolutely.
1:39:18
And look, the more overhead, the more fixed cost or carrying cost you have, that's a dollar you don't have to invest in not just demand generation, but also innovation and research.
1:39:26
And so the opportunity that we started about 2 and a half years ago bringing in agentic tools into the business to not only manage costs, yes it can keep us from having to invest in and hire more people.
1:39:42
It also makes the people we have far more efficient.
1:39:43
We started with customer service and uh agentically enabling the customer interaction experience.
1:39:50
Not all of it but the things that make sense.
1:39:51
Then moving it into our supply chain traceability sourcing.
1:39:54
AI has been an incredible enabler to efficiency and speed in traceability of raw materials and ingredients and then using it for science.
1:40:06
We have an incredible partnership with UC Davis using their AI tools to help us understand interactions and chemistry and future more complicated formulations more easily.
1:40:17
And so when you add that with the more obvious and commonly talked about um agentically enabled marketing whether it's content creation, content iteration, content publishing, um conversion testing, you see all kinds of tools coming up helping companies go faster.
1:40:35
The reality is we can and will continue to operate in a more lean structure so more of those investments can be made in product innovation, human trial research and go to market.
1:40:48
>> Uh what's your honest review of AI uh customer service tooling today?
1:40:51
You don't need to name the your your partner, but uh I've been amazed at how bad some customer experience >> Yeah. uh solutions are today.
1:41:01
Even though you've had this massive progress in other domains like coding, I haven't been like feeling the acceleration where if I'm chatting with a brand about an issue that I'm having, like it just doesn't feel like there's been that much nearly as much progress >> as I would expect or or hope, but I'm curious how you see it.
1:41:23
>> I'd say it's been fantastic for what we needed.
1:41:25
So as a up until our retail launch, we were primarily a subscription business, right?
1:41:30
90% subscription, massive DTOC business.
1:41:33
So a disproportionate amount of our customer interactions were about the order, the shipping, the transaction.
1:41:39
That is beautiful for agentic replacement.
1:41:41
It's very technical and fact-based.
1:41:44
So our customers have given us higher customer service scores, higher ratings on the interactions, but we limit the tool to those.
1:41:54
when it gets into, hey, I have a question about my experience or a recipe or how to mix this or things that might creep into more nutrition and medical territory, there's some AI enablement, but we have a very clear cut off and escalation process of when this needs to be much more human and real time, and that's how we've navigated it.
1:42:13
So, I'm super thrilled and so are our customers with the interaction with Agentic customer service, but that's because we're not using it for things that to your point, I don't think it's quite ready at scale for. >> Fantastic.
1:42:28
>> Last question on that.
1:42:28
uh with a hope hopefully a lot of continued progress.
1:42:34
Do you think that the amount that you're spending on customer service let's say in 5 years will be similar to today because you get the benefit of of sort of increased capabilities or like a you know big company would have historically you sort of need to scale customer
1:42:52
service linearly with revenue and it's sort of like fixed percentage of revenue like is because what I'm wondering is like in the same way that you can basically keep opex flat you know a lot of brands are keeping opex relatively flat like how how will CX fit into that? >> Yeah, I mean for us I would see opex
1:43:09
>> Yeah, I mean for us I would see opex being flat to down both because we can control costs and operate more efficiently to your previous question, but also more efficiently drive profitable revenue with these tools.
1:43:18
So just the way the math maths is more advantageous and allows those investments in things like research and innovation and marketing.
1:43:26
Um, but there's another aspect to still even as we're expanding into retail and look there are many incredible stories of brands that were DTOC native that beautifully expanded into retail and you go from being 100% DTOC to one-third brickandmortar retail and then to half brickandmortar retail.
1:43:46
And when our customer experience starts to get spread across maybe a Walmart that has an AG17 count, a Costco that has an AG1 uh 40 count or AGZ and our subscribers that have access to the full breadth of the experience.
1:44:04
Customer service, I would redefine it as customer experience and retention.
1:44:06
So we may not spend less on an absolute dollar perspective, but instead of it being answering people's questions and fixing problems, it's going into rewarding their loyalty, providing benefits of membership, actually creating a better customer experience, whether it's better frothers, shakers, AI tools for nutrition and education.
1:44:24
So we will spend less on traditional customer service and get incredible operating leverage because of AI tools, but we'll reinvest that into a much better customer experience.
1:44:35
So people do stick with their routines with the most trusted products that they're choosing to buy and try.
1:44:43
>> Well, thank you so much for coming on the show. >> Well said. >> Yeah. Thanks for having me. Great to see you today. We'll talk soon.
1:44:48
>> Good luck with the rest of Q4. Talk soon. >> Goodbye.
1:44:52
>> Let me tell you about the New York Stock Exchange.
1:44:53
Want to change the world?
1:44:55
Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange.
1:44:57
Our next guest is Trick from Stout, co-founder and CEO here with a massive series B.
1:45:05
So, the thing about this show is we only care about what how much money you raised.
1:45:11
So, tell us about the round and let's start there and then we can >> Can't believe I made it on. >> It's not enough. Uh 52. 5 million. >> Great. >> Whoa. Whoa.
1:45:23
I saw I watched the video and I didn't get that information.
1:45:27
That's the information I wanted.
1:45:30
>> If you haven't seen it, the pitch for the video, >> the the pitch in the video is uh you talking to someone at a convenience store and uh you say, "We raised $52 million series B and the guy is like, I don't care."
1:45:41
Uh and and it's a good encapsulation of like, you know, you want to focus on the actual value that you're bringing.
1:45:48
Um but when when when people peel back the onion, they go a layer deeper.
1:45:52
How are you actually pitching the business these days? >> Yeah. So, there's two things.
1:45:55
One, everybody's video looks like a hostage video.
1:45:59
They're sitting in like a turtleneck just like this.
1:46:02
>> And then it's an old school eastbound and down where you got fireworks, people are hitting samurai swords.
1:46:05
It's just you don't even understand what they do. >> Yeah.
1:46:09
>> Wait, can we start this over and get some audio cuz it's just too good. >> Yeah.
1:46:14
This is the uh launch video. >> Hey, boss. Uh, what's up? >> We just raised $52.
1:46:30
5 million for my company, Stew. >> Big sigh. >> So good. So good.
1:46:42
Uh, we're >> Big Shout out to the guys at Day Job, by the way, for putting that together. >> Our dear friends. Um, I needed this.
1:46:48
I'm I'm so >> My least favorite my my least favorite format for a launch video is like, >> you know, mashing together a bunch of like inspirational historical scenes and and calling it >> uh a brand asset.
1:47:03
You know, it's just been done like, you know, thousands of times now.
1:47:08
It's it's time to move on.
1:47:08
Uh there's certain people who will not move on.
1:47:12
They're just going to keep hammering it.
1:47:14
But this but but this was good and I think it speaks to your entire approach.
1:47:19
Uh, why do you still have aai domain?
1:47:21
Someone's sitting on sto I feel like. Oh, yeah, they are. They're sitting there.
1:47:25
They want to give secrets out, but we don't have enough money to buy the. com.
1:47:27
So, I'm praying praying nobody buys that. com.
1:47:32
>> I think you might I think you might be safe.
1:47:33
They they they have it listed here for $888,000.
1:47:39
So, >> also, if somebody buys it, best marketing ever to just change the company name to be like, "Yo, how desperate are you to try to compete with us?
1:47:46
You got to buy our domain. That's insane. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:47:48
No, I think I think you're safe.
1:47:50
It's a very It's a very unique domain.
1:47:51
What uh what kind of progress have you guys made since the last time you were on? >> Yeah. Appreciate you asking.
1:47:55
We uh we've pretty much 8xed our customer base in less than 10 months. >> Wow.
1:48:01
>> Do you guys remember Stute? >> Yeah.
1:48:04
>> Stoop 5% of companies leak revenue by not being able to collect what they sold. >> Sure.
1:48:09
>> We fixed that problem with the digital co-orker.
1:48:10
So, you know, you think companies like Honeywell, Zoom Info, Perk and Elmer, Wells Fargo, Metronic, like big businesses.
1:48:17
Uh, we reduce their DSO or overdue invoices by 45 47%.
1:48:19
Uh, and we just help match your cash, collect your cash, and handle any type of issues. >> Yeah.
1:48:27
What's been the top funnel?
1:48:27
Like what how do you actually uh onboard customers? It all outbound.
1:48:31
You have a big sales force.
1:48:34
>> I mean, nothing beats a cold call, so that's probably 50%. Sure.
1:48:36
The other thing is, you know, I I was listening to AG1 speaker, right?
1:48:40
Like customer success tools stink.
1:48:43
And so we're bringing customer success to financial works. >> Sure.
1:48:47
>> And so we have to earn a little bit of trust.
1:48:49
So a big part of our distribution is partnerships.
1:48:52
>> Y >> so Ferve, Microsoft, Ernston Young, uh people like that have been really helpful in distributing this out to their customer base. >> Fantastic. Well, >> very cool.
1:49:02
>> You can get started at stute. ai, correct? That's stu t. Go check.
1:49:04
I I hate to say it, you got to just you got to do it.
1:49:09
You got to get the domain. >> Jord is a big do guy.
1:49:14
>> I'm a big do guy and I just think you guys are trying to sell the outcome, not the AI. >> Yeah, that's true.
1:49:20
And I feel like that when when we saw the day job uh we saw some of the early work Ryan was working on uh and the team over there was doing.
1:49:28
And I loved that they had positioned the whole brand to not be like AI focused because the customer ultimately doesn't care about that. They want the outcome.
1:49:36
And so the dot com, you deserve the dot.
1:49:39
>> I'll give anybody a finder fee who helps us get the do by the way.
1:49:43
>> Okay, I think you got a bounty. >> Put that out there. Put a bounty out there.
1:49:45
>> Yeah, let's put the put the bat signal up for your buddy.
1:49:49
>> Great to see you, dude.
1:49:50
>> Uh, have a great rest of your day. >> All the progress.
1:49:51
>> We'll talk to you soon. Goodbye.
1:49:51
Let me tell you about MongoDB.
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1:50:02
>> We are running so behind.
1:50:02
I think you might have missed schedule.
1:50:06
>> I might have been a part of that.
1:50:07
>> I was texting you like >> We got four more guests, folks. >> We got a bunch.
1:50:11
We got Scott Morton from Revelence is coming on too. Do we have anybody? We can just let it Who? Everybody's here. Anybody here?
1:50:21
Anybody who's been invited to TVPN, if you're in the Zoom waiting room, just hop in. Put them all in at once.
1:50:28
I want people pitching each other.
1:50:31
I want to see uh uh I want to see TK from Stout pitch Cat Cole his product for AI invoicing.
1:50:38
Uh the le the the lights red green. What do we got? Anybody coming in?
1:50:43
I'm going to tell you about Shopify. Shopify.
1:50:45
It's the commerce platform that lets you grow with your business.
1:50:49
It lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents.
1:50:55
If we have one more air, we're dropping the nuke again. >> Boom. >> Boom. >> Whoa. Scott Morton. No. >> What's up, guys? >> No, we got Tyler.
1:51:03
Tyler, welcome to the show. >> Live to be on.
1:51:08
>> Where are you live from? A beautiful vineyard.
1:51:10
>> I'm up in Yeah, I'm up in Soma County at Reservoir Farms at Dutton Families Vineyard where we're running five different robots at once.
1:51:16
It's a pretty exciting time. >> Break it down.
1:51:19
What are the five robots? >> Small world.
1:51:21
I I I uh grew up like very close to there. >> So, >> Oh, really? >> Yeah.
1:51:27
I know I know the I think I know the owners of the farm. So there you go. There you go. >> Very cool. >> What are you cooking? >> Yeah. Show us some robots.
1:51:36
>> Uh yeah, most definitely.
1:51:36
They are starting up right now.
1:51:38
So Bonsai Robotics is a full stack physical AI company for the rugged world.
1:51:41
We build retrofit autonomy and autonomy first form factors.
1:51:45
These form factors don't just replace labor.
1:51:48
They half the capex cost and drastically reduce the opex as well.
1:51:52
Here's one running right here.
1:51:53
This is actually a 60 foot boom hybrid electric machine. Whoa. um platform.
1:51:58
This is doing open field burndown applications.
1:52:00
So big big robot running.
1:52:03
Um we got some other ones about to start up right now.
1:52:06
In the background you'll see our John Deere retrofit kit.
1:52:07
So lots of different opportunities all powered by our world model and foundation model.
1:52:14
So we have um a world model with one one stack that goes on all these different platforms in all these different environments.
1:52:20
Coming up right here is a hybrid electric.
1:52:23
>> We got robots everywhere.
1:52:23
There's so many robots on this farm. >> It's pretty cool.
1:52:27
We uh we are able to uh we have 430 machines deployed.
1:52:30
Our first commercial deployments for last year.
1:52:34
These aren't just, you know, prototypes.
1:52:35
These are real applications deployed out the farm impacting farmers in agriculture right now.
1:52:39
And now we're getting pulled into other verticals. It's amazing. We love it.
1:52:44
>> How's it been working with Nvidia?
1:52:46
You're working with Nvidia.
1:52:46
We were just talking about the Jaguar Type01.
1:52:50
They're partnering with Nvidia and we've all been using the Tesla full self-driving.
1:52:55
It's incredible and we're waiting for this to come to every car company.
1:52:58
But I'm wondering how your how your experience has been.
1:53:02
>> Nvidia has been amazing.
1:53:02
I worked at this early ad company called Blue River.
1:53:06
Right when Nvidia came out with the first uh GPU, the TX1, we pivoted into deep learning.
1:53:10
It's been now 14 year 12 years since that happened.
1:53:13
And Nvidia has just been an amazing partner, not only powering our robots, but also enabling us to build a world model.
1:53:19
We trained a world model on Cosmos 3.
1:53:21
We have a million acres of data collected.
1:53:25
>> Cosmos 3 is really good at on-road with our data.
1:53:27
We were able to put it in these outdoor environments. They've been amazing. Spectacular.
1:53:32
>> It's like it's loosely like Yeah.
1:53:33
fine-tuning, adapting a model, but building on everything.
1:53:35
>> So, do you need to do you need to do the full stack?
1:53:37
Like there's a million there's a million companies trying hoping and praying that like they can build a model that you can use in your robots and you can you know deploy them and and have the end customer relationship but why so far have you you know focused on you know building your own models and your own hardware and and this sort of go to market motion. >> Yeah.
1:54:00
No, it's a great question.
1:54:00
So we believe fundamentally going retrofit and our own form factors.
1:54:04
There's so much more than just a model to power the outdoor world autonomy.
1:54:07
The user interface, knowing the customer, everything is very important and you have to customize it accordingly.
1:54:12
Early on, we collected a crazy amount of data.
1:54:17
That's the most valuable asset.
1:54:17
We're now enabling us to build this world model because we had this copious diverse data set.
1:54:23
We believe we have the most diverse data set in the rugged world.
1:54:26
So, we wanted to own the full stack, right?
1:54:28
When we control the world model, we control the user interface and channel and customer experience and the robots.
1:54:34
That's the big picture for these verticals from our perspective.
1:54:38
>> What is the future of working on a farm?
1:54:41
Is there like one person on site right now control?
1:54:44
Are they able to effectively control or monitor all the robots at once and intervene as needed?
1:54:54
>> Yeah, most definitely.
1:54:54
So, we have Sorry, there's a loud robot, a big one coming now.
1:54:58
So, we might pan to that, but we have a uh >> Whoa.
1:55:01
We have a a full operating stack, right?
1:55:04
The user experience is everything, right?
1:55:06
One person is controlling all these machines, managing A to B navigation, all the operational intel, the amount of spray, the models.
1:55:14
You have to break it down so that anyone can run it.
1:55:16
So, one person is controlling this whole fleet.
1:55:18
That's what makes the ROI, that's what makes the actual value acrew.
1:55:22
So, it's a pretty exciting time for us.
1:55:24
Um, where we have one model, one person across all these different platforms.
1:55:28
It's it's happening now for the first time. Absolutely wild.
1:55:31
Uh this is one of the greatest shows we've ever got on TVPN.
1:55:37
>> Thank you for the tour.
1:55:38
>> No one's ever gone six robots, you know. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:55:40
Maybe we >> got 430 running, so uh we could ramp it up next time, I guess.
1:55:46
>> Wow, that is impressive. Well, congratulations. Thank you so much. >> Great. Great to have you on. Come back.
1:55:51
We're going to hold you to like at least 20 robots the next time.
1:55:53
So, you set up a pretty high bar for yourself.
1:55:56
>> I want a fast takeoff.
1:55:57
>> Well, we'll do it in a new vertical. How about that? I love it. I love it. Awesome. >> Awesome.
1:56:01
>> Have a great rest of your day.
1:56:02
>> Great to hang Tyler out there. >> Pleasure.
1:56:05
>> Let me tell you about Figma agents. Meet the canvas.
1:56:07
Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context. Onto our next guest. It's a surprise guest. >> We don't know who.
1:56:16
>> We're going to figure it out. How you doing? >> He is. >> Introduce yourself. >> Sorry.
1:56:21
Chaos over here in the Ultra Dome today.
1:56:23
Yeah, we were talking to Walter Russell me and uh every question it took us a minute to get the question out and then he would take us on this journey for five minutes and so uh we got behind schedule but thank you for being flexible.
1:56:36
Thank you for hopping on the show. How you doing? >> Good. Yeah, good to be here. >> Fantastic. >> What's new?
1:56:43
>> Um man, since last time uh was that February we talked last March? >> February 26th, 2026.
1:56:48
It's been almost at last time we talked it was like 320 days till Christmas. Can you believe it? >> That's crazy.
1:56:59
>> That's hard to believe.
1:56:59
>> Now we're only 78 days away from Christmas.
1:57:01
So just to put things in perspective there. >> Yeah.
1:57:04
Um I mean we've so we've uh taken a nuclear reactor critical with Aloto atomics with our software.
1:57:09
Uh team has over doubled in size.
1:57:12
We're at about 70 folks now. >> Wow.
1:57:15
>> Uh we've also deployed to several massive industrial scale facilities.
1:57:18
So it's like 10 times what we've done before which is like a you know kind of rocket engine test site. >> Yeah.
1:57:24
>> Um yeah it's been a heater of uh six months so far.
1:57:30
>> How custom are your deployments?
1:57:30
I feel like in the age of AI being very custom for deployed engineering is very popular.
1:57:36
It feels like >> I mean there's always a problem.
1:57:38
You know the sales sales team is like I accidentally promised that we build this thing.
1:57:44
But now I feel like the customers know that they can probably ask for a lot deeper >> customer. Yeah.
1:57:50
So I mean fundamentally we're providing a platform for testing and controlling physical systems.
1:57:54
So think like you know as I said nuclear reactors, jet engine test facilities, rocket engine test sites.
1:58:01
>> Uh we enable teams to go much faster much further than the same amount of time.
1:58:04
um we're replacing, you know, technology from the 80s and 90s.
1:58:08
You have these companies building hypersonic jets and they're stuck with like pre Windows 98 era tech.
1:58:13
Um but yeah, the platform generally enables the engineers, especially hardware engineers to be fully self-sufficient.
1:58:20
So really on our end, there isn't a ton of of kind of forward deployed engineering work.
1:58:23
Um at least in terms of like implementation, but we do help them kind of get set up uh get rolling and then you know help with any issues that they run into both hardware and software.
1:58:35
How many t how often are you hearing from entirely new startups in the either the LA ecosystem or just the the deep tech ecosystem?
1:58:44
It feels like we went through this crazy boom and maybe it's cooled off, but are you seeing like continued acceleration in company formation?
1:58:54
>> We we hear from people from working on all kinds of different hardware systems.
1:58:58
Um yeah, I was looking at the um the SoCal hard techch map uh from 2024 to to 2026 and it was like 130 companies and now there's 279.
1:59:09
>> So yeah, no, I don't see any stopping to this especially SpaceX going public and Andrew doing super well. >> Yeah.
1:59:15
>> Uh I think we're still at the beginning of this thing. >> Yeah.
1:59:18
What what are uh like how much of the how much of your team is ex X SpaceX and is and uh like what what kind of trends are you seeing in terms of you know post IPO?
1:59:30
I imagine a lot of people just want to go and start companies but some people just want to build stuff.
1:59:36
They don't want to deal with everything else that goes into building a company. >> Yeah.
1:59:39
Uh I mean yeah we have a lot of former SpaceXers uh at Revel.
1:59:41
Um but generally, yeah, no, we are seeing a lot of former SpaceX founders in the area.
1:59:48
Um which like you know is great for us because they're like, you know, I worked on kind of the infrastructure uh for Starship.
1:59:54
Uh they are familiar with some of the stuff I did at SpaceX and uh you know, call me up as soon as they're out and they're they uh they're ready for some some Tesla control software. >> Yeah.
2:00:08
>> How many are are you running into people SpaceX alumni that are just retiring?
2:00:14
Uh I you know there's some folks that you know they may retire for a little bit but I think this type of engineer gets bored quickly.
2:00:21
So I think we see people kind of go through that rotation come back in uh after a few months. Uh >> yeah few months.
2:00:30
>> There was a there was an article in the journal about someone who was at SpaceX and it seemed like they were somewhat lowlevel but they you know through the IPO they made enough money to like take a year off and just go travel the world.
2:00:42
It was a cool anecdote, but yeah, I completely agree with you that like you can't last if you're if you lasted a year at SpaceX, you probably have the bug, the entrepreneurial bug, the builder bug.
2:00:51
You're going to do something.
2:00:52
So, it's this funny paradox of that you have enough not to work.
2:00:56
Maybe >> are you yesterday was a sort of a monu monumental day in math.
2:01:00
Uh, a lot of people are kind of wondering how that's translating in real time to progress in in other domains.
2:01:08
I'm wondering are you are you getting surprised at all from from your customers at at at the kind of pace uh that they're making on the on the product side?
2:01:18
Are you still seeing companies where you're like, "Oh, it's SpaceX.
2:01:21
We would have done that in a month and and you took six months." >> Yeah.
2:01:25
I mean, we help them do it in a month.
2:01:27
That's what we're all about.
2:01:27
I mean, testing at all companies is critical path.
2:01:30
And so, you know, if we we enable them to test like 50 times in a week instead of five times in a week.
2:01:36
Um, so no, we're we're definitely part of the solution there to to enable them to move much more quickly and kind of also I'd say our platform I think also encapsulates a lot of like a lot of these hard lessons learned uh to kind of uh help them go directly to to something that's very mature that they can just rip with. >> Fantastic. >> Sick.
2:01:57
>> Thank you so much for coming on the show.
2:01:58
>> I'm sure you'll have more. >> Yeah. One more thing.
2:01:59
So, we've got a LA Heart uh event on October 15th.
2:02:02
I don't know if you guys you guys have seen the >> Everything's on October 15th.
2:02:08
>> Porsche's releasing a new car road coming out LA.
2:02:11
This is >> You're really trying to steal your your former employees thunder going up against Tesla, but who knows? That might be delayed. We don't know.
2:02:21
It's it's it's been shifting around, but this one's locked October 15th. Tell us >> October 15th.
2:02:26
It's uh it's with Zinger.
2:02:28
So, we've got the V-Max the Spider coming. You guys should come. I love I love Zinger.
2:02:34
We We had the car here on the show. It's fantastic. It's a Yeah.
2:02:38
>> Is Zinger Zinger's a customer then or you guys are just teaming up? >> Yeah, they are. Yeah.
2:02:42
Very Yeah, it's uh it's been great so far.
2:02:45
And uh and yeah, should be sweet.
2:02:47
Um you know, invites uh open.
2:02:50
It's on our LinkedIn if you guys want to want to check it out.
2:02:52
But yeah, should be a great event. >> Awesome, dude.
2:02:55
Well, great great update.
2:02:56
Come back on before the end of the year.
2:02:58
I'm sure you'll have more news. But awesome progress. >> Have a good day. Thanks, guys. Goodbye. Cheers, dude.
2:03:03
>> Let me tell you about Codex.
2:03:03
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2:03:07
Whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows, Codex helps you move projects forward.
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>> Let's give it up for automating business workflows.
2:03:16
>> And let's give it our next guest.
2:03:16
Our next guest, a surprise guest. >> What's going on? >> Welcome to the show. How you doing? >> Hey. Hey. Good. And you, Jody? Fantastic. >> We're doing great.
2:03:27
Sorry for the chaos today.
2:03:30
We're a little bit uh behind schedule, but thank you for being flexible.
2:03:32
Thank you for sticking in out and hopping on TVPN.
2:03:34
Uh why don't you introduce yourself and the company to kick it off? >> Yes. Yeah.
2:03:40
I'm I'm just Haya and I'm the CEO co-founder of Health Loop.
2:03:44
>> Our our mission is just to improve the health outcomes of as many people as possible. >> Sure.
2:03:48
Uh and you raised some money. How much did you raise?
2:03:52
>> Today we're announcing 38 million backed by Seoa. Seoia. No introduction needed. There we go.
2:03:58
Can we get the replay uh pulled up? That'd be great. Um >> boom, great.
2:04:09
>> With authority, John coming in hot. Bam.
2:04:13
>> All right, we can take that down. Um okay.
2:04:15
Uh improving health outcomes for everyone. Where do you start? >> That's the question.
2:04:21
So, yeah, I a little bit about quick backstory.
2:04:24
little bit about quick backstory. I I I started uh my first business ventures back in South Africa as a teenager who couldn't afford healthcare myself and uh as a 13-year-old initial the initial spark was I was selected to represent South Africa at the international math competition but I couldn't afford my flight ticket and so I started a lot of
2:04:43
business ventures taught myself chess uses that as startup capital from winning tournaments >> and then made enough money to buy a computer could do more interesting stuff and I used the some of the profits to pay for my own healthcare, change my own life, but um but I wanted to I I I was left with this kind of meaningd driven search for what what's the most important thing I can dedicate my career to. >> And that's that's why I teamed up with
2:05:05
>> And that's that's why I teamed up with my sister who's a clinician.
2:05:09
>> Uh and she she actually specialized in clinical nutrition.
2:05:11
So we teamed up uh to start there and identify undiagnosed disease related malnutrition as the first uh condition we went after and we've now expanded.
2:05:21
So the basic workflow is partner with a hospital, partner with a hospital network, deploy your solution, scan medical records from patients that come in, detect problems before they become a major issue, things that might have been overlooked by a nurse, by a doctor, and then you are helping solve those problems or at least flag them so that a doctor can solve them.
2:05:48
uh but also reducing their financial liability because they might have medical malpractice if they're if I come in and I'm having a heart attack and they didn't pick it up.
2:05:58
That's a problem and you help them avoid that situation. Is that roughly correct? >> Yes.
2:06:04
Uh so exactly there's so many patients who come into a hospital but they have other conditions as well that might not be detected or even if they are detected get detected late and so >> having this high precision real-time risk screening for every patient every day across all major health conditions allows patients to get better care.
2:06:24
Clinicians to allocate their time more effectively and hospitals also uh get paid for the the actual appropriate severity in their population.
2:06:31
But overall the cost of healthcare actually goes down be because people stay healthier.
2:06:37
>> Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
2:06:37
How do you sell the hospitals these days?
2:06:38
I mean you're a smaller company backed by Sequoa so I'm sure there's connections but what what is the sales process like?
2:06:47
>> Yeah, fantastic question.
2:06:47
So historically companies in in healthcare tended to move uh quite slow.
2:06:51
They had these extremely long sales cycles and so our approach was really let's upfront quantify the opportunity for health system.
2:07:01
So we kind of simulate back test uh what would happen if they deploy us and then we also contractually go go at risk and so they >> you have to already have a relationship with a hospital.
2:07:10
It's not like you can you can say okay there's this hospital let me go generate a report and then send them my >> I think it's more like before before asking for a bunch of money prove that it's going to >> but once you already have a conversation going that makes a lot of sense. Cool. >> Yes.
2:07:24
And at this point it's kind of word of mouth like we go to events hospitals uh are are actually quite collaborative because they like to share uh they're geographically separated.
2:07:33
So they're kind of in that sense non-competitive.
2:07:38
So at at conferences like uh two weeks ago pain medicine went on stage at one of the largest healthcare conferences and just talked about how much their patient health improved by deploying hellap and then we got a bunch of interest from that. >> That's very cool. >> Yeah it's so funny.
2:07:51
There's so many other industries where one business will develop an advantage through a new technology an AI product and they're like let's not tell anyone and let's like get as the maximum amount of value out of this whereas like hospitals you know they're not worried about your you're much more positive sum. >> Yeah.
2:08:09
No, it's a super positive sum future.
2:08:10
I could imagine in the future like you go you you you you break your arm or you're having a heart attack, you go into the hospital and it's automatically flagged that you need something done with your upper maxilla or like a double jaw surgery or maybe some leg lengthening.
2:08:23
>> John's on some licks back.
2:08:25
>> John's having too much.
2:08:27
>> Obviously there are really really positive and impactful >> uh what was your >> uh as a math olympiad.
2:08:32
Uh what was your reaction to yesterday? >> Yeah. >> Well, tell me more. Oh, he's so locked.
2:08:41
He's so He's so locked in. I love it.
2:08:44
Some math some math problems got solved.
2:08:46
That's all you That's all you really That's all you really need to know.
2:08:49
>> Uh the headline is Open AI drops a bomb on maths.
2:08:53
Uh and and the the actual like headline from OpenAI is uh that they I I mean it really is like hundreds of math problems have been solved.
2:09:03
This is obviously a couple weeks after the Navier Stokes and the Hodge conjecture fell.
2:09:09
So yeah, you are right that it's like every week.
2:09:14
Uh I guess the bigger question is like more broadly as someone who has played in that space, what has been your reaction to model progress in math? >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:09:23
I I think it's it's fascinating. It's fascinating to see.
2:09:25
I think um in in some ways yeah this this was kind of predicted uh that and and so I think I I'm almost still waiting for for AI to get to the point where it can come up with fundamentally new spaces to go and explore.
2:09:44
like more efficient search. I like it.
2:09:49
>> I see the goalpost moving.
2:09:52
>> But yeah, but but no, I I personally expected this and uh it's funny.
2:09:54
I remember remember the reason I I stopped playing chess was I I took it seriously for one year uh got better and then I was like why am I doing this?
2:10:03
The computer is doing it so much better.
2:10:06
Let's it's it's it's exciting to go and find the new problems that humans can now uniquely solve and I I find it energizing.
2:10:14
energizing. I think it's correct and there's and there's still yeah so much to be done in diffusion and and and this is I think what health leap is it's a diffusion company in in as much it is as it is an AI company right it's like you need to actually bring the solution to the market integrate it in a way that gets a real uh impactful result that
2:10:33
people can actually benefit from >> thank you so much for coming on the show great to meet you back soon raising and we'll talk to you soon and great story >> have a good one goodbye let me tell you about console Console builds AI agents that automate 70% of IT HR and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. Our last guest of the
2:10:51
Our last guest of the show is not a mystery guest.
2:10:54
We have Arus from OpenAI. Welcome to the show.
2:11:00
This is Chad GBT product manager and we're very excited to be joined by him. Welcome to the show. How's your day going? >> Good. Good.
2:11:07
It's good to see you guys again. >> Yes.
2:11:09
Welcome back to long >> uh what did you launch? Take us through it.
2:11:15
>> Yeah, so today we're launching GPD6 in chat GPT >> for all of our 1. 2 billion users. >> Yeah.
2:11:22
>> So a few weeks ago we announced Astra which is sort of our frontier model. >> Yep.
2:11:26
>> And then a couple weeks ago we walked through GB6 Soul and Luna.
2:11:28
And so today we're actually bringing GBD6 now to everybody in chat GBT.
2:11:33
And it's coming with really two really cool new capability improvements.
2:11:38
One which we're calling intelligent UI >> which is now chatbd can control uh not just what to say but how to show uh its answers and can kind of control its interface.
2:11:51
>> And the second is that chatb can now answer while thinking.
2:11:53
So historically when you use something like a reasoning model you've had to wait for a really great answer right it can think and do a lot of work but then you that trade-off comes with latency.
2:12:04
Y >> and now we've enabled chatbd to actually start answering while it's still continuing to work on the problem. >> Yeah.
2:12:11
>> And so that really changes it's a subtle change but it's it really changes how uh people experience um chat TPT for more complex questions.
2:12:21
>> I can't tell you how many times I'm like creating a new chat because I've fired off like two things.
2:12:29
It's really it's really not that you really don't you're doing way too much. >> Yeah. Exactly. It happens all the time.
2:12:34
Uh I one thing that I've always noticed on the product uh the product development side uh is and the UX side is uh the use of haptics.
2:12:41
like very early on in the chatbt app as the tokens were streaming in you'd hear you'd feel the little haptics and I ran into it recently when I asked to pull uh temperature data over a hundredyear period and I was just trying to get an idea of like has it has it gotten hotter in this town more than the global average or whatever.
2:13:03
Uh it pulled all the data.
2:13:05
the data. I expected that but it generated a chart and the chart was interactive and as I moved my thumb along the chart there was a haptic feedback and I was like wow that's really uh that's a really delightful experience and I'm interested in how you have puzzled with when do you want to
2:13:23
build a widget when do you want to actually set the the the application up for success to use uh basically like a harness something that a pattern that you've decided versus how much are you giving over to the model over time to say, "Hey, there's just a whole bunch of APIs. The haptic one is right there. You
2:13:38
The haptic one is right there.
2:13:38
You can pick from it as you please."
2:13:43
>> Yeah, that's a great question.
2:13:43
Um, so historically, we've built these as sort of, you use the word widget, which is kind of exactly right.
2:13:50
Like we've built these predefined cards. >> Yeah.
2:13:54
>> And the content inside can sometimes be dynamic, like the charts you show we talked about.
2:13:58
Um, but the response has mainly been marked out, right?
2:14:00
These chat bots produce text and then we find ways to sort of hijack that markdown to allow it to reference additional artifacts like uh the a weather widget or a chart or something like that. >> Yeah.
2:14:13
>> With this change like >> so that approach is somewhat limiting, right?
2:14:17
Because actually it should just create the perfect interface for whatever you're trying to do.
2:14:21
Y >> sometimes text is amazing.
2:14:22
you're writing something, you're looking for advice, but other times, chatb should really have a lot more control for how it constructs the entire layout and interactivity of the of your answer.
2:14:32
And so with this change, we've actually trained chat GPT to have full control over what it shows you. >> Yeah.
2:14:40
>> And so it can um generate a UI on the fly and do it really fast.
2:14:44
It's not something that'll take a minute or two.
2:14:48
It's really for every chat in the same latency. >> Yeah.
2:14:50
and it can figure out what kind of functionality it wants to add on top of that.
2:14:55
>> So some of that will be like interactivity within the chat.
2:14:56
Let's say you're trying to understand a topic.
2:15:00
It'll actually give you an interactive diagram for you to play with to better understand that.
2:15:04
>> But it can also add functionality, right?
2:15:06
Like often now if you ask for like a recipe, it'll give you a shopping list, but it'll add a copy button.
2:15:10
And that's not something we've like built in a pre-made way.
2:15:14
the model just realizes adding a copy functionality when I give you a shopping list is the most useful thing for me to do. >> Yeah.
2:15:20
And I imagine that there's a there's an interesting flywheel here where uh obviously giving this out to 1.
2:15:29
2 billion users that are free and maybe not fully monetized with ads just yet is expensive, but there's a lot of value that comes from a free user iterating and saying, "No, you should actually have the slider this way.
2:15:41
you should add add haptic feedbacks, add that copy button and then that goes into the roll out.
2:15:47
The model gets better at knowing which tool to pull off the shelf at the right time.
2:15:51
Um is that is that generally how you think about this? >> Yeah.
2:15:56
So for this launch, >> yeah, >> we really wanted it such that you don't have to ask what you want. Okay.
2:16:02
>> Chat GPT is going to try and figure out >> Yeah. >> Okay.
2:16:04
You're trying to understand the offside rule in soccer.
2:16:06
Yeah, >> the most way for me to explain that is not v instruction manual, but let me just show you a diagram that you can play with >> that I create on the fly.
2:16:17
>> And so you can always ask with chatbt what you want. >> Yeah.
2:16:21
>> But one of the big changes is we've actually trained the model to figure out when does visuals and interactivity >> really make the answer better.
2:16:28
>> And then the other part is exactly to your point of how do we scale this to 1. 2 billion users.
2:16:31
You might have seen Astra can produce super cool visuals and websites, right?
2:16:35
But that takes a lot of compute and it's slow.
2:16:39
>> So we've actually done a lot of work.
2:16:40
We've actually built our own sort of library inhouse um that allows model the model to generate UI but in a very token efficient manner and to do it in a streamable way.
2:16:51
So it feels fast, it works crossplatform and it's very very efficient.
2:16:56
>> And so a lot of that is what went into enabling us to scale this to 1.
2:16:59
2 billion users without it melting all of our GPUs or us having to charge users. Right. Yeah.
2:17:05
So everyone will get this in a sort of unlimited fashion. >> Yeah.
2:17:09
>> Um to sort of uh build much richer answers in chat.
2:17:13
>> Uh in the 2010s it felt like like product management practices were getting really cemented.
2:17:18
Product managers were oftentimes like the superstars of their organization just under under the founders.
2:17:25
Uh today obviously researchers tend to capture a little more attention uh than than you.
2:17:35
Uh uh do you feel like there's like new norms being like it just feels like it's like a it's 10 times as hard to be a great product manager now because you're not just working between the customers and engineering but you're adding research and then the the the the
2:17:51
capabil capabilities of the models are advancing but then you also have this issue of like you know historically if you had a SAS product and like nine times out of 10 it did what the user wanted that would be like a failing grade because people would be getting really frustrated. Now you could have a
2:18:05
Now you could have a product where nine times out of 10 it nails it bec and that's actually a good thing, right?
2:18:12
But but you're still there's still going to be some percentage of users that are frustrated.
2:18:16
So it just feels like all the all the sort of the approach is being wr rewritten and the the sort of in the 2010s or late 2010s you had you had you know books and and podcasts and it feels it felt like product management was really like being cemented around best practices that worked in the SAS era.
2:18:34
Yeah, it's it's definitely changing a lot.
2:18:36
I think the um you sort of have to start from scratch a little bit and be comfortable with non-determinism and figure out what like how does product management work in an area of non-determinism and and even within that like getting very comfortable with eval and and how do we measure progress um is something that's like a really important skill.
2:18:54
One thing that's really different is actually like we we're used to non-determinism in text.
2:18:58
Now we're entering non-determinism in the interface itself.
2:19:02
Like now it's not just the words are different, it's even the way it presents the answers are super different.
2:19:08
And so that's also actually going to start changing how we do product development at OpenAI because no longer can a designer build a weather card or a sports card and be like this is how it's going to appear when it triggers because the model can just generate that on the fly.
2:19:23
And so we're actually now also figuring out how do we do design in the age of non-deterministic UI >> in chat GBT.
2:19:33
And we've actually had to build our own sort of design tools and development stack such that design can now work a lot closer with research on actually steering here's how we're going to teach better and better design to the model.
2:19:46
And so to your point like product management is definitely changing and I think design is also now changing a lot where design is going to sit right next to research >> in shaping model outputs. >> Sure. >> Yeah.
2:19:57
And that's such a such a such a big update versus the the prior era of like >> being able to obsess over a certain like element of the product for for months and and then >> knowing knowing that consistency versus now.
2:20:12
Uh yeah, it just introduces like well how do you test those?
2:20:14
How do you collect user feedback?
2:20:16
All these different challenges.
2:20:18
>> How do you think about uh interfacing with other product teams?
2:20:20
We had Kath from uh CHP sites on the show last week at Devday and uh a lot of the things that you just described as uh you know instantiating UI on the fly.
2:20:30
Uh my previous workflow was hey generate a site of this and I'll share that around.
2:20:39
But this doesn't feel like it obsoleses sites.
2:20:42
sites. It's more like I was I was driving to work today and I was thinking like wait am I going to be able to like add ooth to these sites and build a database but like sites is going to grow in its own direction and you're going to grow and how do you think about working together with other teams because
2:20:58
there's so many projects like computer use like operator was like a side project that like dropped and then came back with a vengeance and these things sort of morph but what is it like interfacing with the other teams to make sure that you're not stepping on each other's toes but also setting yourself for a success. That feels like a
2:21:12
That feels like a critical piece of the role these days.
2:21:16
>> Yeah, it's it's a great question.
2:21:16
I think the first is we run super lean.
2:21:18
So like there is very little sort of running into other people's toes just because we just don't have enough >> VMs.
2:21:25
Um, I think the the one thing that's really cool is >> with models like GB6, they're getting better and because the model is better at front-end design and building sites, >> we've also therefore been able to teach it to do really good UI generation in chatgbt. >> Sure.
2:21:42
>> And make it really good at using our own in-house component libraries, right?
2:21:43
And so one thing is we we see really nice transfer of capabilities as sort of different teams make improvements and and trying to stretch the model in one way that then goes and benefits all these other teams. >> Yeah.
2:21:56
>> I think the separate thing is really focusing on our users, right?
2:21:58
So Cath and others are really focusing on how do we enable developers and then enterprise users to have to be like maximally productive, right?
2:22:08
And so the concept of a site as actually a place where everybody can collaborate and do work is amazing and we're going to keep pushing that and making the model better at that.
2:22:17
And then the separate thing is which was what I spent a lot of time on is like hey how do you get everything everyday things done?
2:22:22
You're asking about a recipe.
2:22:24
We're trying to learn a concept on your phone on the go.
2:22:26
Uh and really think about okay how do we bring a lot of these innovations but make it accessible to our billion users. Right. Yeah.
2:22:35
And so generally the ability to improve like have everybody improve the model but then optimize our features and kind of the experience we're delivering for our very different user cohorts, right?
2:22:48
Because like you building sites is just so different to someone who's sort of like out there um trying to like get to work and catch up on the latest news, right?
2:22:58
Uh, and you might be doing both of those, you know, throughout the course of your day.
2:23:01
And we should give you the best site building experience and we're going to give you the best sort of everyday chatbd experience. >> Last question.
2:23:09
How how dynamic can do you think the the UI in a in a thread can get?
2:23:14
Because like the peak peak, you know, chaos would be like you're you effectively can generate an MMO and invite your friends into the thread and and and play it.
2:23:25
But uh how how far does it even make sense?
2:23:29
>> That's how I like my recipes delivered. >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:23:31
Cook a virtual meal to understand how to cook a real meal.
2:23:36
>> Well, I want to turn my my recipe into a first-person shooter >> ideally. Yeah.
2:23:40
>> That that we can both play. >> Yes.
2:23:41
That's that's the future.
2:23:41
You guys, you guys should play with what we launched today.
2:23:46
It's It's I don't It can't make an MMO recipe, but it can make it in >> the goalpost.
2:23:54
>> We're moving the goalpost. >> Yeah.
2:23:55
Wait way way to set me up for success, guys.
2:23:56
Uh um the uh it can't it can't do that.
2:24:01
But >> you want your entire conversation to look iMessage blue or look Windows 95 style, it can do that.
2:24:08
It can create sort of a ton of interactivity.
2:24:13
um you know uh it can um it can really build anything and it's going to stream really really fast. >> Yeah.
2:24:20
>> I think the sort of logical extension of this is that chat is going to be this operating system that helps you get whatever you want done and sort of update itself and be that perfect UI.
2:24:34
And yeah, it should be that if you want a recipe MMO game, we're going to give it to you and we're going to give it to you really really fast as well.
2:24:38
and and that's sort of where we're we're heading. >> Um yeah. Uh but >> very cool.
2:24:45
I'm gonna test it on on my my favorite uh personal benchmark surf bench.
2:24:50
How well does it give me the surf report >> because that's that's like the kind of that's the kind of like prompt that can actually deliver like you know I I do want >> you want it over top surf level. >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:25:01
I might want UI that's more dynamic than just like a chart that shows me different numbers. >> Yeah.
2:25:06
If it if it doesn't work, ping me on Slack.
2:25:08
I will and we will make it work. >> Yeah. >> Awesome.
2:25:12
>> Well, thank you so much for hang up.
2:25:14
Congrats on the launch and we'll talk to you soon. >> Thank you guys. Have a good one. Goodbye.
2:25:20
>> Well, that's our show.
2:25:20
We got to get out of here because we have another show to do.
2:25:25
Uh we've been invited to guest on another uh show.
2:25:28
I'm not going to leak it because there might be some rollout strategy there, but uh it'll be a lot of fun.
2:25:34
We'll promote it when it goes live.
2:25:36
But thank you for tuning in to TBPN today. >> It's been an honor.
2:25:40
>> It's We're We're so much closer to 77 days away from Christmas.
2:25:43
Start counting the hours. >> That's right.
2:25:47
>> Because we are now >> We got to start doing a countdown to the next.
2:25:51
>> We are now less than 11 hours away from being only 77 days away from >> countdown to the countdown.
2:25:59
>> Countdown to the countdown. >> We got folks.
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