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Lehman was fraud, flat-out fraud.
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If they would have prosecuted some top Wall Street guys who committed fraud instead of giving these guys $500 million dollar bonuses on their way out, I don't think you'd have Trump today. One person went to jail. One person.
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I don't know if there's any group of people with less self-awareness than than central bank officials.
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Did you see the quote from Wall Street Journal?
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The economy's great, the people are wrong.
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Why don't we go to a supermarket and you can tell everybody about how low inflation is.
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I believe passionately that the playing field should be level.
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If you've got a level playing field and accountability, things work much, much better. Well, hello everybody.
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It's Jim O'Shaughnessy with yet another Infinite Loops.
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Today's guest I have been waiting to talk to for a long time.
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He is very much in demand both on the podcast circuit and elsewhere.
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My guest today is Rudy Havenstein.
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No, not the German head of the Reichsbank during the Weimar Republic of Germany that caused hyperinflation that basically collapsed the German economy, uh sowed unrest and instability in society, and crushed the citizens' trust in institutions like the political ones and the media ones.
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Gee, Rudy, that's sounding a little familiar.
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Um and also gave rise to our good friend Adolf Hitler.
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This Rudy is an American who set up a Twitter account in 2013 to warn us here in the United States and the rest of the West about the dangers of hyperinflation.
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And how like Rudy, first off, welcome.
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I've been waiting to talk to you for a long time. Thank you.
1:55
It's it's an honor to be talking to you. A pleasure. Thanks for having me.
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So, we're roughly contemporaries.
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I guess my first question is why don't we for people who don't think about this a lot, why don't we talk a little bit about hyperinflation?
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Because if you know the history of hyperinflation, of course the Weimar Republic in Germany was was a classic case, but recently Venezuela had essentially 1.
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7 million percent inflation between 2016 and 2018. Zimbabwe.
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But when I talk to people they always say, "Well, yeah, that's Zimbabwe or that's Venezuela.
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You know, the United States is the world's reserve currency.
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It's the biggest and most militarily powerful country in the world.
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That could never happen here."
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Explain why that might be wrong.
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Well, you know, Germany wasn't a a small backwater in the '20s either.
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I mean, it was a major European power even after losing World War I.
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I I've been clear all along.
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I'm not calling for I mean, I wrote a post uh probably almost, you know, 10 years ago saying I'm not calling I certainly don't think the United States is at imminent risk and I I think uh it's it'll happen other places first, obviously, if it happens.
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But I'm just saying we have to be careful and any nation that monetizes debt is putting itself on a um on a dangerous path and we we have monetized the debt.
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I mean, if you you know, they say that they're tapering the balance sheet.
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If you look at it on a semi-log scale, it's really uh not much.
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Um there's a lot of people expecting that they're going to have I mean, I don't know how many podcasts I've listened to recently where people say, "Well, they're going to have to monetize the debt."
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I mean, Tom Hoenig the other day was was talking to somebody and he said um there's going to be a a lot of pressure on the Fed uh to monetize the debt.
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And uh you know, people are talking about, you know, 20 trillion dollar balance sheets or 30 trillion dollar balance sheets if we don't get our house in order.
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So, but I'm not calling for it.
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By the way, hyperinflation, I've always made clear, too, is not very high inflation.
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It's not like '70s inflation or the 9% we just had.
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It's a currency collapse. It's a different animal.
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It's I think very high inflations can lead to hyperinflations, but it's night and day.
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I'm not calling for it imminently, but I'm just saying we got to be, you know, we can't What's the Is it Stein's law that what can't go on forever will stop will stop?
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So, you know, so So, that's all.
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And you know, I I picked the guy because I always had an interest in um in in that period of of history and um uh I I I I have a bunch of contemporary accounts written by people who lived through it of the hyperinflation, in particular Germany.
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And um and you can see how, like you pointed out in your intro, that uh it absolutely destroys society in ways that I don't think we can appreciate.
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And and my thing is if we're if we ever go that route, I really hope that I'm that never does.
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And I'm not calling for it, but I'm just saying if we ever go that route with the world reserve currency in the nice it would destroy the United States and it would destroy, you know, probably the greatest political experiment we've ever had, you know, in the last couple hundred years in this in the history of the world.
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So, I I'd hate You just have to be careful.
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You can't just say, "Well, we're the United States, so we can do whatever we want all the time."
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And that's that's a thing I think we say on a lot of levels, you know, uh some country that we don't like, we'll invade them, you know, we don't we we need something we need to send money, we'll print it, you know.
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I I think we need because we're Americans.
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We've got You know, I've said before, people don't Americans generally don't put themselves in other people's shoes.
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You know, look at the uh I don't keep going the sanctions and everything that they did.
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They told people like the Chinese and the Russians, "Hey, don't keep your money in US assets because, you know, one day we might be mad at you and and confiscate your your stuff."
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So, uh without rule of law, you know.
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So, that's dangerous, too.
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that's dangerous, too. Um, but it wasn't just, you know, I I and as I say have my name Rudy Havenstein was intended as a warning, not as encouragement, but uh, uh, it seems like the warning part has been ignored by by our leaders, but I
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also keep I mean, I also came on for you know, stock market other reasons, too, because I always, you know, I've been telling people I I used to I I still do send emails for years to friends and stuff just with news articles and stuff like my Substack now. And um, because most people are too
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And um, because most people are too busy, you know, trying to survive or trying to make a living to pay attention to the vagaries of what goes on in the stock market or in politics, you know.
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And uh, so anyway, uh, yeah, it's dangerous. But we just be aware.
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We're not we're not some special country that can't make mistakes, you know, I I I say that the FOMC now thinks they're so much smarter than the Reichsbank in 1923, and I don't think they are. So.
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Yeah, and I have been uh, fascinated by uh, things like currency collapses for a long time.
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I also write like a lot of fiction stories and way back when in the '80s, I I wrote one and uh, so someone a friend of mine joked to me the reason I started a publishing company was simply so I could publish all my own stuff.
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And that's a joke, of course. That's a good plan.
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But now that after selling O'Shaughnessy Asset Management and our new venture, we actually do have a publishing company.
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And one of the reasons why that we started that is we think that uh, that a lot of topics should be much more deeply explored.
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And back to kind of the fiction idea, back in the '80s, I wrote a treatment about the easiest way to destroy uh, a country would be through destroying its currency.
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And and that was because it wasn't very good, I'll admit.
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You know, I was in my early 20s.
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But, um, the reason for that is like currencies are stores of value.
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One of the things that always confuses me, and I'd love your opinion on this, is like the the Bitcoin aficionados.
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Uh, uh, look, Bitcoin is a speculative asset, and if you want to invent a speculative asset that you can trade, uh, okay, but it's certainly not a store of value.
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And and I sometimes in what in my career in asset management, I was always struggling to get people to kind of understand that, kind of understand inflation and real returns.
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And I'll tell you, man, in a couple of my books I used real returns, and real returns are those stripped of inflation, okay? Right.
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So, people just did not like it.
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What Why do you think Why do you think it's hard for many people to like really grok the the impact and effects of inflation?
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You know, I just posted on that on real returns.
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You know, what you were saying about the best way to destroy a country destroy a currency, that's straight out of Lenin.
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There's a There's a great quote from Keynes.
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I mean, Keynes quoting Lenin in in uh in his book.
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Um, of course, I posted on all this that that is the best way to destroy a country.
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So, we have stealing and and it and of course, it causes all sorts of ramifications.
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Why don't people I don't know.
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I mean, I think everybody if you ask them, I mean, I've done surveys.
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Of course, they're not scientific, but you know, I get thousand couple thousand replies.
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You know, what do you think is your What do you think is the your cost of living increase? Is it 2.
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What you know, I said whatever the CPI was, or is it 10% or is it more or is And everybody I mean, I I think I listed 10% as the highest, and that one one by a by a good margin.
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And then a lot of people were replying that it's it's higher than that.
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And I mean, you know, someone could show, well, you know, look, we have this data series from the BLS, and it's no, it's only 2%, but, you know, I know my, you know, everybody's got a my my auto insurance went up 41%, you know, same everything, no you know, and a lot of people said, oh, mine was worse than that.
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Other people said, mine was 30, mine was I mean, so it's not it's not 2. 7, okay?
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I think everybody knows that.
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Um now, why don't they think in terms of real? I don't know.
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I mean, I I just uh posted a um a a cartoon from a Federal Reserve uh New York Fed comic book that that they produced uh not that long ago, and um it has a guy looking at his paycheck going, you know, what good is it if I if I make 3% more if my costs went up 5%.
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That's real that's you know, that's it, but so many people don't seem to understand that.
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I mean, look, they they still one of the favorites I see is retail sales. They announce that.
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That's not adjusted for inflation.
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Um I think the government has a huge incentive to understate inflation.
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I mean, that that's it that first of all.
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And also all municipalities and all types of government, they want uh of course they want things to be nominally more expensive because then they can, you know, they get more tax revenue, you know, whether it's property taxes or anything.
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So, there's so and the media of course is as I was ranting yesterday is completely in the pocket of um of you know, the Fed and the government.
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There's our financial media is our mainstream financial media is just abysmal.
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There's no Did you Did you see the press conference yesterday with Powell? I did not, no.
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There was a number of questions.
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There was one guy asked a question, I forget what it was, but I'm like, oh, that's a good question, cuz I'm always going, oh, they never ask any good questions.
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So, he asked a good question, Powell goes, I'm not going to discuss that.
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You know, and there's no follow-up because if that guy gets aggressive and says, oh, hang on, you know, Chairman Powell, you need you need to address this, he won't be invited that guy won't be invited to the next press conference.
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And they're all hand-picked.
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It's always the same guy.
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Steve Liesman got the first question yesterday.
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If it's not him, it's Tim O'Brien or one of you know, one of the others.
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They've And you know, Tim O'Brien has written a book glorifying the Fed as has Hilton Hilton wrote a book called He said He called it a love story about economics and he And the title of the book was Yellen.
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So, we're not getting We're not getting objective reporting out of our financial media.
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And you know, I there's a great clip that this guy made um of uh everybody on on uh CNBC uh pumping uh SBF, you know, back Oh, I mean, is he the new JP Morgan?
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Is he the new this, that, the other thing? And it's hilarious.
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It goes on for like 2 and 1/2 minutes and all they're doing is just saying how he's the you know, the savior of uh of crypto and everything.
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And anyway, I I I just got off on a tangent on the financial media, but um you should People should read the Lenin quote about uh uh inflation as as far as how it destroys society.
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And you know, that's their their stated mandate.
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Their their legal mandate is stable prices.
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Um which is which would be zero I think most people, but uh they've somehow come up with 2% and there's a hilarious clip of Powell trying to explain 2% and his his argument is basically what everybody else is doing it, you know, which a mom wouldn't accept that as an as an excuse.
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Uh but Congress does because Congress you know, Congress loves I mean, the the way I put it is the Fed is Congress's drug dealer.
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So, you know, um they're not going to stop anything.
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They love everything the Fed's doing because it enables them um to keep printing.
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I mean, as Kevin Warsh of all people said uh you know, it was the Fed that got political when they decided to cut rates to zero and buy up all the bonds that Trump and Biden were creating, you know, uh the debt.
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Um They the It was a The Fed said, "Sure."
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You know, I mean, talk There's no independence.
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It's their their part of the Treasury basically.
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Uh except when they don't like the president.
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I'm sure they they would have cut rates if Biden if uh Harris had won.
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Um I I'm not big on that.
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I think but I think all a lot of people who've worked there have said that uh you know, like Joseph Wang or I think Whalen Chris Whalen said it the other day that the the Fed is overwhelmingly I mean overwhelmingly uh democratic liberal um institution.
13:44
They they're they're you know, borderline socialist but the socialism they do is for the rich, you know.
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Um I I joke that that I don't know my I had a tweet where I said, you know, my I mostly make flippant comments about serious issues as opposed to the Fed which transfers wealth upwards.
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So, I mean that's my view of what basically what they've done the Cantillon effect over the last uh at least post Greenspan. So.
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And that's an area of interest for me because I you know, as I was coming up uh you know, uh we we all looked at Volcker as kind of a hero, right?
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For breaking the back of inflation by pushing interest rates up.
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So, when I bought my first house, when I got married, when I was 22, I I was like thrilled that I got the owner to write um a note to me because mortgage rates were so high, it was just like impossible Oh, you did seller finance? Yeah, I did. Yeah.
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And he was I think if I recall correctly, it was around 14% and I was like the cat that swallowed the canary.
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I just thought that was the greatest deal ever.
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Um and and so one thing though that in my mind at least was a real tipping point.
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I'd like your view on it and and that is the great financial crisis.
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So, to to give the prelude to that, there was a huge crisis in the late 80s, early 90s called the savings and loan crisis. Mhm.
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And the government under George Bush senior like took it on, but after they took it on, 1,000 people were prosecuted, 800 were convicted, many spent time in jail and paid huge civil fines.
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They were barred from banking.
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In other words, they were like, "Guess what, guys?
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You weren't playing by the rules, and here are the consequences."
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Go forward to the great financial crisis of 2008, one person went to jail. One person. Yeah.
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The rest of it was entirely monetized.
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We socialized all of the fuck-ups of both government and the industry.
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Like, I'm not going to let one or the other off the hook here.
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And and I remember I I keep journals, and I went back before when I was getting ready to talk to you, and I wrote, "This is going to be very, very bad going forward, that nobody is being held accountable."
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I think it devastated the non-elite psyche in America to see that.
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I didn't lose a house, but I there were people who did lose houses, and then they're watching you know, Lloyd Blankfein become a billionaire.
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You know, it was a failed hedge fund manager who got somehow miraculously became a taxpayer-backed, Fed-backed bank. Yeah, that was huge.
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I mean, I think that was huge.
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There's on the uh when you know, you got this populist uprising, you know?
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And populist, you know, I said, "I'm taking back the word populist," because it means basically you're interested you're you're advocating for the what's best for the common people, for most people.
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And we've done the exact opposite, I think, this entire century.
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And um uh Yeah, it's it's um it's a problem.
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I think, you know, Ken Lay was George Bush's George W.
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Bush's great biggest donor, and uh when Enron went down, um he was actually sentenced to prison.
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I think he died awaiting before he went to prison, but that was you know you know what you say I'm not a fan of George W.
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Bush, but his top donor, you know, Kenny Boy uh was going to go to prison.
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And um under Obama and Holder, I think uh Holder was a bank lawyer who came in and created, I have a clip of this too, a too-big-to-jail theory.
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And no, he did he literally did.
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And I I well when I go through and read listen to this later, I'll probably just post these these things up cuz I annotate these things and say here, this is what I'm talking about.
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Yeah, too bad and then he went and then when he left, he went back to the same law firm to defend banks. Eric Holder.
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A lot of people think he's some sort of progressive great guy, but no, he's not.
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He's he works for the banks.
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And so and Obama was the banks' best friend, too.
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You know, and I I used to say that I I used to I used to listen to Obama's speeches until I found out they didn't mean anything, you know, so and I was I voted for him in a way in uh the first time because uh I was so angry at uh what the George W.
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Bush administration had done.
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But Bill Black is a guy he was a bank examiner back when you were talking during the savings and loan crisis.
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And yeah, they put I think they had a I think he said they had a like a couple thousand criminal referrals.
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So maybe a thousand went to actually trial. Um it was a big deal.
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People went to jail, the CEOs and stuff.
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And you know the scene at the end of The Big Short where um uh Steve Carell is just sitting there going shaking his head on the phone going, you know, they're they knew it.
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They knew they were going to get bailed out, you know.
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That's you know, there's a that's when I just like that period of time cuz I'd followed the housing bubble, you know, all through the early 2000s, mid-2000s.
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Um you know, ever since Paul Krugman said we need a we need a housing bubble to replace the dot-com bubble and of course Greenspan accommodated him.
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And um uh so I watched the whole thing and when they I when they the way they handled that and they just I mean Geithner who then went on to become what president of Warburg Pincus.
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You know, they did what they did or didn't do what they should have done.
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I think I was appalled and of course I was very aware of what was going on, but I think even the Joe Sixpack that just saw what was going on in his neighborhood or losing his job or the houses foreclosure, I think they everyone had a sense that something was not right.
19:33
And you needed and I I've said before if you would have had if if they would have prosecuted you know, some top Wall Street guys who committed fraud.
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I mean that's Ben Hunt, you know, but he's talking about Lehman. Lehman was fraud.
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Flat out fraud that, you know, yeah, Ben knows more about this than me, but he said he could it's they prosecuted all day long. It's no problem.
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If they would have done that instead of giving these guys $500 million dollar bonuses on their way out, um you know, you I don't think you'd have Trump today.
20:03
I think that that now Trump, if you remember in 20 and I'm not a Trumper.
20:07
In 2016 and 2015, he's starting to run for president. I think he did it.
20:12
You know, I didn't think he knew he was going to win, but he he's talking about things.
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I have a whole thread on this where I talk about this.
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He's he's bashing the banks. He's bashing George W.
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Bush for the stupid wars.
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And you know, if you look at my pin tweet, that's all it is.
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It's the kleptocracy and the wars.
20:27
I mean that's my main focus now.
20:29
I mean hyperinflation is a minor, really minor thing now.
20:31
I I but I I I I have long threads on and I touch base with it once in a while, but what you brought up I was going You asked I was listening to your uh F O B Al Bean or whatever his name is, but nice guy. Uh his interview guy. He's a good guy.
20:47
At the end you asked me you said like what's two things or what's one thing that you think is very important now and and what you just said about the difference between the savings and loan crisis and the 2008 2009 and the 2022, there was a lot of fraud stuff going on there, too. Um is accountability.
21:05
I keep going back to accountability, whether it's the for white-collar bank criminals or for generals who lose wars for my entire lifetime basically, you know, or most of it, you know, I mean, when was the last war we won?
21:16
There's no accountability.
21:18
Where was the accountability for Afghanistan or for Iraq or for 2008 as you point out? There's none.
21:24
You know, I got I got Geithner should've been run out of town on a rail putting an Yankee.
21:29
They gave him a Nobel Prize.
21:29
The guy was basically the captain of the Titanic when it hit an iceberg that everyone's many people.
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See, they love to say afterwards nobody saw it coming.
21:38
That's you know, that's nonsense.
21:39
A bunch of people saw it coming.
21:40
They were just ignored or fired or laughed at.
21:45
I mean, that the people talking about the housing bubble in like '06, '05, '06 were brought on Fox Biz or CNBC and laughed at.
21:52
They'd bring them on and laugh at them.
21:54
You know, yeah, here's here's a here's a housing bear.
21:57
And no accountability at all um for anything that's gone on.
22:01
The whole COVID thing where we basically, you know, Australia's putting people in camps and where people are getting fired from their jobs because they didn't want to get an experimental vaccine.
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And and there's no accountability.
22:11
Everyone's like pretending, oh, well, let's let's you know, let's move beyond that.
22:14
We don't want to Well, you know, we had a bunch of off the authoritarians, you know, running amok and I think there should be accountability.
22:22
But anyway, just to you know, go stop going off, but accountability is huge.
22:28
People need to be held responsible.
22:28
Now, if you're a guy and you screw up at work and you get fired or you get a reprimanded, but that's what people know.
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They know, hey, I screwed up.
22:37
They see they see these guys all you know, look at Yellen.
22:41
She's been around for 50 years almost at the Fed off and on and her other her other gigs.
22:45
Um she I think she's been appalling for for um her record is appalling for most Americans.
22:54
Um now, she she's set for life.
22:54
She's she's already bloated and she can go make 300 or 400 or 500,000 for a speech now.
23:01
You know, which normal people can't do that.
23:03
And um she's, you know, we're getting back to inflation.
23:06
Inflation is is is theft.
23:06
I mean, Bernanke said inflation is a tax.
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And he said it's too high.
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To Ron Paul when he said it, inflation was around 2%.
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He also said we're never going to allow inflation to rise above 2%.
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We could we could hike rates.
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Bernanke said that on 60 minutes.
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He goes, we could stop that in 15 minutes.
23:22
Well, we're now on 44 months in a row with CPI over over 2%.
23:27
And I think their mandate is 0%, but look, you know, I'm a crack, right?
23:29
So, they they failed on all levels.
23:31
There's a great quote from that again I posted on um from the Fed minutes in the '90s where Greenspan's talking and uh Yellen asked him, "What do you think inflation What do you think the the official rate should be the the target?"
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And I think it was Greenspan says, "Well, it should be zero." I think it was '96. Zero.
23:50
And Yellen goes, "No, I think it should be like 2%."
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I mean, as good Jim Grant says, "Two you know, if work is heartbeats, then you know, uh to when you when you when you take away someone's income through inflation, you're stealing from them.
24:04
You know, you really are.
24:06
You're you know, it's like my he calls it monetary shoplifting.
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And there's another great quote where from the minutes where Greenspan's talking about, "Well, we could increase productivity and and or we could we could monkey with the CPI numbers to get them lower."
24:21
I mean, and then there's laughter, you know, you I always love when the Fed minutes have laughter in them because usually means something bad's going on.
24:26
But that's that's he literally joked about that in the Fed minutes.
24:29
community, "Why don't we just monkey with the CPI?"
24:30
And of course, you know, as Grant Williams the great Grant Williams points out, you know, every adjustment to CPI is always to lower it.
24:37
You know, they have a massive massive incentive to understate inflation.
24:41
I think they do and I think they do by a huge amount.
24:43
And I think that's a big reason for for why people are upset when you have the greatest economy ever.
24:49
You know, we everyone was telling us until recent you know, until until Trump got elected. You know, remember?
24:54
I I Biden, Harris, all the newspapers, you know, did you see the quote from um oh gosh, was it uh uh Wall Street Journal, you know, um the economy's great, the people are wrong, you know, or uh the Jonathan Chait Chait said that Paul yeah, Paul Krugman is uh is right on the economy and you're wrong.
25:12
And and and they're you know, imagine that that the hubris and the and the the arrogance of these people and um and I always joke, you know, that the you know, they don't have they don't have people who aren't millionaires on CNBC to talk about inflation. You know what I mean?
25:26
I keep like when I get into a disagreement with some FinTwit guy, including some very prominent people, I say, "Well, you know what?
25:33
Let's have this you know, on FinTwit, you know, I can hold my own, but why don't we go to a supermarket and you can tell everybody about how low inflation is, you know?"
25:38
And uh we we we've been we've never had them.
25:41
I said, "Let's have a meeting like in aisle nine and just put a table up and have people come walk by, you know, we could do a podcast there, right?" It's like I don't know.
25:49
I mean, I try and stick up.
25:51
I grew up, you know, middle very middle class, you know, and and uh and and so that's where my heart is, you know, and and that's who I fight for because nobody fights for.
25:57
You don't see anybody middle class on CNBC ever. Ever.
26:02
Yeah, and you know, one of my big things uh I I'm not a big fan of politicians on either side of the aisle uh and and but my big deal is uh I am a like if I have anything that defines me politically, it is that I am fiercely anti-authoritarian. Mhm.
26:23
And one of the things that worried me, for example, uh you mentioned uh the the 2006 period.
26:31
I I was one of those people.
26:34
I was at Bear Stearns at the time and I was walking around telling anyone who would listen to me, you know, if I could short my house, I would, but you know, they had a CDO hedge fund that was doing really well, so I was told to uh I and I'll use the polite version, or Sean honestly shut the up." Right.
26:54
Because, you know, I believe passionately that the playing field should be level.
26:59
And that if you've got a level level playing field and accountability, things work much much better than when you have this two-tier system.
27:10
Um and you know, one one of the things for example, uh all the asset management companies that I formed have my name in them.
27:20
And I I did that because I was talking to my wife when I was founding my first one when I was in my 20s.
27:28
And I was trying to, you know, this is in the '80s and everyone had cool names, right?
27:32
And so I was trying to think of a really cool name for this new asset management company.
27:36
And my wife looked at me and she goes, "Um weren't you just telling me about how J. P.
27:43
Morgan, the man, solved the 1907 crisis because of the authority that he held over others?
27:50
And also then you continued I tend to go on tirades. Yeah.
27:56
You continued by telling me that banking worked a hell of a lot better when the partners had to actually put their names on the firm and actually make good for any losses.
28:07
And so I'm like, "You know what? You're right.
28:09
I am going to name it after myself."
28:14
And one of the reasons for that is literally talking about putting skin in the game, you're putting your entire reputation in the game. That's right.
28:23
And like to me th- those things are just so incredibly straightforward that watching the machinations of like, well, yeah, they're or or your note of the laughter during the Fed minutes.
28:41
It's like I I do find myself a- something you talk about a lot, like President Eisenhower warned us about this in his farewell address. Yeah.
28:49
He basically, you know, he said beware the military-industrial complex, you know, that leads to forever wars, that leads to us, you know, paying basically the full freight of our Western allies' defense budgets, uh because that seemed like a good idea during the Cold War.
29:08
Like, do you do you see a path back towards accountability, towards a level playing field? I hope so.
29:16
I mean, you you've got uh you've got some semblance of it now with the Trump I mean, of course, if you if you don't like Trump, then this is all horrible, but I think he's uh he's trying to, you know, hold some people accountable, close down some programs, maybe fire some people, you know, you've got a whether you like it or not, you got a new sheriff in town at like the DOD and and uh I hope uh Tulsi Gabbard gets in.
29:37
Um I hope I actually hope RFK Jr.
29:40
gets in because people are like, "Oh my god, he has this view and that view."
29:45
And I'm like, "Well, you know what?
29:46
What we've had is not working, you know what I mean?"
29:49
And and I think uh I listened to his podcast for for years um and he has uh he does a great job.
29:54
I mean, I I I like the guy.
29:56
Do I agree with everything? Absolutely not.
29:57
Do I agree with everything Tulsi Gabbard has done or said? Absolutely not.
30:01
But I still think they're better, perhaps, than the alternative.
30:05
And um you know, as I tell I'm very suspicious of Donald Trump and the people surrounding him, but I'm I'm quite happy that Kamala Harris lost, you know?
30:14
So, it's it you can you we need common ground.
30:16
That's why I like guys like, you know, Ron Paul, who's, you know, just amazing guy.
30:19
And and Dennis Kucinich, who's the probably opposite Ron Paul on on, you know, 80% of issues, but they're friends and they they did legislature together because they agree on some things.
30:30
They agree on, for example, being anti-stupid wars, you know?
30:35
Um what I call uh my SOMME rule, S O M M E.
30:38
Don't get into stupid wars, but uh but I like that common ground.
30:42
So like there's people that I that follow me or I follow them and and we agree on like some huge, you know, Venn diagram of stuff, but but I think they think I'm nuts on over here and I think they're nuts over there, but I don't I choose not to like pick on the part that I disagree with them.
31:00
I I might re- repost things that they posted I agree.
31:05
As I have to tell people sometimes it's like just because I when I quote someone I'm not endorsing every single thing they've ever said, written, or done. You know what I mean?
31:12
I think but there are people I mean I I'll go to Karl Marx before, you know, I've quoted you know, a Lenin. I've quoted Lenin.
31:17
Does that mean I I support Lenin?
31:19
No, but I mean sometimes, you know, people you disagree with can say things that are very pertinent.
31:23
So I think people need to calm down, not have a litmus test of, you know, like I won't do this podcast with you unless you and I agree on, you know, here's 100 issues you have to agree with me on.
31:33
I mean I don't believe in that at all.
31:35
If we agree on 10, I'm fine with that.
31:36
Let's talk about those 10 and maybe you want to talk talk about a few of the others.
31:40
But um Yeah, so common ground is very important to me and um Uh so I try to That's how I try to operate, you know, with people and and some people you can't reach, you know, but um the ones you can, it's it's worth it.
31:54
Yeah, and and that's another thing we actually agree on.
31:59
I I definitely uh I often say that if you think that you can know all of my political or social views by simply saying one of them, then you are captive of an ideology that is going to be really hard for you to break out of.
32:17
And I definitely I think it would be great to find a coherent way in which people who like even people or institutions that vehemently disagree with one another on many, many things, why don't we experiment with putting them in a room, like putting them in front of a jury system, and having them debate things, and having the jury say, "Okay, who is more compelling?"
32:43
Or this idea, not not who. See, even I it up.
32:47
Not who is more compelling, what idea is more compelling.
32:51
And you know, they they did an experiment, I can't remember when.
32:56
It was probably more than 10 years ago, where they took a very, very conservative political think tank, and they put them in a room with a very liberal political think tank, and and they said, "Don't come out of here until you guys can come up with 10 ideas that both of you agree with."
33:15
And like, it took a lot of time, but it worked.
33:17
And they did come out with those 10 ideas.
33:20
Now, did any of them get enacted? Probably not.
33:21
But the idea that the the isolation that we've seen develop in these these private echo chambers comes, I think, very easily because, you know, confirmation bias.
33:36
The minute we believe something, we are literally almost blinded to any information that disagrees with what with what our beliefs are.
33:43
And so, we tend to get attuned in our little bubble of information, and and literally cannot or will not understand the points that people who disagree with us are making.
33:57
And obviously, at least obviously to me, that is horrible for society.
34:01
You need cognitive diversity.
34:04
Like, you know, with all of the talk about, you know, diversity, all that kind of stuff.
34:11
Hey, I totally agree that we need cognitive diversity.
34:15
But what it did end up being, it ended up being about surface appearances.
34:20
Like, what color you are, what religion you are, you know, what group do you belong to?
34:23
And then And then saying, "Well, if you are this color or this sex or this sexual preference, then you must agree with all of these things.
34:33
Like that To me, that is like one of the worst outcomes.
34:38
Cognitive diversity, on the other hand, is very, very useful.
34:44
Because like I'm sure I'm wrong about a ton of things.
34:46
And so it What what How do I get less wrong?
34:50
I get less wrong by allowing error correction in the way I think about the world.
34:59
And the way you error correct is you see some compelling arguments that differ with the ones you're with the ideas you're holding.
35:06
And like, you know, one of one of my things to that I'm very bullish about AI is it's really good at steelmanning arguments.
35:16
And so one of the things that I do is I'll take arguments that I fundamentally disagree with.
35:23
And then I will put them into a large language model and have them steelman that argument. And you know what?
35:29
It it Like you it it steals from you the ability to say, "Oh, all those guys are idiots and those ideas are worthless." Because you know what? Some of them aren't.
35:40
And one of the things that we do when we attach ideas to a specific individual is it just makes it so easy for the ad hominem type of argument. Yes.
35:52
Like you mentioned Kennedy.
35:55
Very, very easy If you look at those hearings that are going on you you know, he he's done a lot of things that are pretty easy to attack, right? Yeah.
36:05
And and so but that that is that doesn't determine whether he would be a good choice for health and human services.
36:13
But as you pointed out given what's happened Right. like it hasn't worked.
36:19
And when things don't work, you should fix them, in my opinion.
36:22
Call me a crazy radical, but if things are not working, you should work towards solutions.
36:30
Working towards solutions for things that are really catastrophically not working should be inclusive, not just not not just one group over another.
36:40
Do you I mean do you think like am I just is this just a pipe dream? Yeah.
36:47
I think people need to do some introspection.
36:49
I I think the Democratic Party and the media in particular, and I'm not a fan of the Republican Party.
36:55
So, you have to explain that, too.
36:55
If I say something about one, it's you know, uh they have done no introspection.
36:59
You know, that the Democratic Party in 2016 should have said wait a minute.
37:06
I mean, the Washington Post said Trump had 0% chance of winning, you know, like you know, couple weeks before he won.
37:12
And they should have said, "Wait a minute.
37:14
People got obviously for this guy to win, this maniac, this you know, this time he was Hitler."
37:20
And I think last time he was Hitler, too.
37:21
Uh the our message must be must be we must something.
37:25
But you think they'd say, "Wow, we must have done something wrong."
37:28
Now, immediately, and of course Hillary echoed this, too.
37:31
She was an election denier for years.
37:33
She said, um they said, "Oh, no, it's Russia."
37:35
They went with Russia, Russia, Russia, Russia.
37:38
And then uh and and they so they basically did and for two you know, for 4 years it was um uh not my president.
37:44
He's the Russians stole the election.
37:46
He's not a legitimate president.
37:49
Um resist, blah blah blah.
37:49
Then in 2020, you got the flip side. Trump loses.
37:53
You know, a lot of people question that, but people question every election.
37:57
And then the Republicans are saying the election was stolen, and the Democrats are all up in arms.
38:00
Oh my god, how dare you question the integrity of our election electoral system.
38:04
Well, and I'm like, "Hang on.
38:06
Didn't you guys just spend 4 years questioning the integrity electoral system?"
38:09
So, there's no self-awareness.
38:10
There's no introspection.
38:11
Um you know, remember the night Trump won just a few weeks ago or what was it in November, I'm watching MSNBC, which I broke my rule of never watching cable news, which I've had for 8 years now, I think.
38:24
Um and they're all in there, oh, it it was you know, it was misogynist Mexicans and and anti you know, misogynist black guys that that elected Trump.
38:36
I mean, they're just they were like I'm looking at them going, are you guys going to be this clueless again?
38:42
And and so they there's people need to have some introspection.
38:46
And the other thing is you know, I grew up years ago I learned I could argue with you Jim about some issue very could be a very touchy issue and then when we're done when we're done yelling at each other we'll go ah, screw it, let's go have a beer.
39:00
And I totally totally I still can do that now.
39:02
What you especially learned in the last since 2016 is a lot of people can't do that.
39:08
I found out that you disagree with me on this issue. I hate you.
39:11
I can never be your friend.
39:13
I'm not inviting you to Thanksgiving. I mean, it's tragic.
39:16
Look at the the celebrities what was the the one from The View or whatever telling people not to go to their not to go have Thanksgiving with their family if they voted for Trump or something. I mean, it's so absurd.
39:26
Neither Trump nor Harris is worth losing friends over or family over, okay? Honestly, come on guys.
39:30
Let's let's have a little perspective here.
39:32
Um so that that's one thing people have to know.
39:35
You can disagree on something and you don't need you don't need to hate that person.
39:38
I've been convinced over the years I've been I got you know, I was probably initially pro Iraq war because I'm thinking well, hell, they've got smallpox, he's got nukes and I had friends tell me no, this is this is BS, man.
39:50
And they were right and I quickly I you know, when I saw I think it was within a within a week of the invasion that there were people like looting nuclear, you know, like hospitals of nuclear equipment and all that.
40:03
You know what I mean, like radiation stuff.
40:05
And our soldiers were just standing there watching them like, what the hell is going on here?
40:09
We're there for these guys could make dirty bombs theoretically.
40:13
But But you I remember them saying like, you know, not only Connally's a rice eating, you know, it's it's going to be a mushroom cloud, you know, it's going to be our first warning of Saddam, but but they were talking about anthrax and they were talking about smallpox and they were talking about all sorts of things.
40:26
So, um, and then that's a whole side story about how the Patriot Act got got passed with the anthrax attacks which were, uh, you know, from America.
40:37
But the other thing, um, I make a point to follow people who I disagree probably 90% about, but I but with and they probably do and I may disagree with me on 90%, but we have common ground on some issue and and they like me don't have a litmus test.
40:49
They're willing to follow me in spite of all the stupid stuff that I'm wrong on, you know, and and I but I do that.
40:54
So, I was looking through I do lists, you know, and and so I so I, you know, kind of on Twitter to kind of, you know, make it a little more readable.
41:03
And, uh, there's a couple people I'm I'm reading all these like, um, really far right and far left, um, retweets and and posts and I'm and I'm thinking, "Ah, should I unfollow or should I?"
41:15
And I'm like, "No, no, just leave it."
41:16
And and because I want to see. I want I really do.
41:18
When I was back in college for a year I subscribed to the National Review, which is people don't know it's very conservative, and the and the Nation, which is considered to be liberal.
41:29
And I subscribed to both for a year and the way I put it is I I read them cover to cover and, um, I haven't since, but I I did at that time and and I remember thinking with each of them about a third of it I I I agreed with.
41:42
I thought, "Yeah, that's right."
41:44
And then about a third of it of each I said, "Uh, I disagree, but I understand where they're coming from."
41:52
And then the remaining third was, "This is, you know, as I as batshit crazy, you know, this is nuts."
41:56
So, so I found that on the left and on the right.
41:58
So, I I, uh, I found that very useful to at least uh people should be aware.
42:03
Like I tell people I posted before about Chris Hedges, who I think is a talk about anti-authoritarian and and do I agree with him on every absolutely not, but I think it's important for uh he's he'd be considered a a very a very left left-wing guy in America by American standards.
42:17
I I think cuz I just think I posted that conservatives should listen should read this guy.
42:20
You know, you may be all upset and angry and everything, but you should read him just to get just to kind of get an idea.
42:24
As I pointed out, I you know, grew up as like a Cold War hawk and um I read a book by, you know, Chomsky called uh The Turning Democracy.
42:32
And again, I have a lot of problems with Chomsky, but as you're as you point out, let's talk about the ideas, not the person, right?
42:40
So, he his book The Turning Democracy, which is basically about the I think it was the first Iraq War uh in the '90s um was uh he explained a lot of American foreign policy to me that never made sense, you know, like why is you know, Batista a good guy and Castro's bad, or why is um you know, Saudi Arabia's wonderful and Iran's bad, you know, or you I I didn't understand that.
43:04
And the way Chomsky maybe I'm doing him not doing him justice, but the way he phrases it is is are you friendly to US business interests?
43:12
Then you you're you're an ally, and if you're not, you're not.
43:14
Human rights means nothing, democ- democracy means nothing.
43:18
We we that's what we say, you know, um I don't know if it was Berenson or whoever said that when um when Victoria Nuland used to go around talking about freedom and democracy all around the world, you know, he said uh uh she's that's that's that's only for American audiences.
43:33
He goes, nobody nobody outside the US believes any of this that we that we really care about freedom and democracy.
43:37
I mean, one of our best allies all these years has been Saudi Arabia.
43:42
A- And And remember if you remember back before his first term, Trump was saying that they were the guys that did 9/11.
43:47
I mean, he was a bashing the Saudis.
43:51
And then the problem is, you know, so remember I I'm saying he was bashing the banks, he's bashing the wars, he's bashing the Saudis.
43:55
Remember, he was making fun of Ted Cruz for taking money from Goldman.
44:00
And or And then when he gets elected in 2016, he puts Goldman in charge of his of his administration, basically replacing Obama's City Group guys.
44:10
And his first visit was to Saudi Arabia, where he gets a little metal put around his neck.
44:14
And as far as I think white-collar crime prosecutions declined to the lowest on record under Trump, you know?
44:20
So, all this bank bashing and now on wars to his credit, I mean, we still killed a lot of people in countries most people couldn't find on a map, but he didn't start any any new ones really as has been too common among presidents lately.
44:35
So, on that alone, I think he's less of a of a you know, mouth-breathing warmonger than than we're used to Trump.
44:42
So, I So, I will give him credit for that, and I hope it continues.
44:46
Although, he's made some decisions that make me question that, but like I said, I'm suspicious and but I'm willing to, you know, take the good things.
44:54
I think I think sending, you know, arresting illegal immigrants who commit crimes is a good thing, you know?
45:01
I I think not having a porous open border is a good thing.
45:03
Um, I'm I'm just so, like I said, I'm so I'm very suspicious of Trump, and I'm and I'm sure glad Harris didn't win.
45:12
You know, I was having a conversation with a friend the other day, and I was talking about Orwell's 1984, and I said the the really terrifying thing about that book was Newspeak.
45:25
And my my friend was like, "What?"
45:28
And I went, "If you really, and I've read the book several times, right?
45:33
So, So, so applicable today. Yeah, right.
45:37
And it is, and that terrifies me. Right.
45:40
Because the objective of Newspeak was to make it impossible for the in quotes citizens of these totalitarian societies to even conceive of an idea that differed with the party's policies, right?
46:01
And when you think about that, and then you kind of look I like you I stopped watching cable TV news of all sorts probably now 15 years ago. Good for you.
46:12
And one of the reasons I did it was just I was seeing the beginnings of that kind of hypnotic propaganda.
46:20
And by the way, like what's really funny is I would bring it up Now listen, I live in the bluest of blue areas, right?
46:27
I'm in Connecticut and New York and like so most of my friends are are very liberal.
46:32
And so I would bring this thesis up with them and they would say, "You know what? You're absolutely right.
46:40
Fox News is nothing but propaganda."
46:40
And then I would say, "Yeah, yeah, I agree, but I'm also saying that MSNBC is nothing but propaganda."
46:49
And they would pause and they'd say, "Well, I don't I don't know.
46:54
I I think that they're mostly straight news."
46:59
And then I would have the conversation with conservative friend and they would immediately say, "Well, of course MSNBC is pure propaganda, but you get pretty good news." Right?
47:09
And and like I'd never really I couple convinced a couple friends that it's all propaganda, right?
47:18
It's just this is a different flavor over here than the flavor over here. Yeah.
47:23
And like it's one of the reasons why at our new company we have all these new media efforts.
47:30
I I definitely sense that the old models In fact, we have a series out of called the Great Reshuffle.
47:36
The old playbooks don't work anymore, right?
47:41
Like I I I tease the World Economic Forum all the time on Twitter.
47:44
Because like when I watch their their clips it's kind of like I I are you so tone deaf that you that you literally think that this is going to convince someone to to back your proposals?
48:03
And and the answer is, yeah.
48:07
They they really are that tone-deaf. The Fed's the same way. Yeah.
48:12
And so, like again, I always try to look for things to root for as opposed to root against, right?
48:17
Because it's pretty easy to be against a bunch of I mean, obviously, if there there are horrible things happening in the world all the time.
48:26
And of course, we can we could have an entire 5-hour conversation about all that's wrong with the world.
48:32
But if that's all we do, what are we doing?
48:35
We're just propagating that meme, if you will, but just make people feel terrible.
48:40
Like what what are some Do you see any green shoots?
48:43
Um I where Well, you mentioned Trump not getting into as many wars, something I absolutely support. Yeah.
48:53
In other words, don't get into foreign wars, if anyone needs me to clarify that.
48:58
But do you see other specifically on the financial side, do you see any green shoots that is something that like we could collectively root for?
49:11
Well, I've noted that in the 2016 and 2020 um GOP and Democratic Party um platforms, they called for the uh bringing back Glass-Steagall. Mhm.
49:23
And Trump is on record as uh supporting the return of Glass-Steagall.
49:29
Uh which if you remember was uh the uh 1990 1990 Oh, yeah, of course you remember, but I mean the audience.
49:33
1999 was it, I think, under Clinton signed it, but it was very bipartisan, probably more GOP than Democrat.
49:39
And it basically took away all of the protections we had from banks being um publicly backed gambling casinos since 1933.
49:46
I mean, they learned a lesson in the Great Depression that then passed this law that that you know, we didn't have these bank failures with rare occasion until you know, and until they repeal Glass-Steagall and then of course within a few years we have Great Depression 2, you know, or or GFC.
50:02
But I call it Great Depression 2 because I think for half of America it really was and still is.
50:08
Um yeah, that's that's that's something that that could they could do.
50:12
Um so let's bring back Glass-Steagall.
50:16
Let's let's have white let's you know, I said the other day, you know, there's a there's a great site excuse me right now that does a list of all the financial crimes and and the fines and everything, you know, Bank of America's at the top and you know, you're talking like 57 billion in fines or something in the last not many years and JP Morgan's up there too and and of course the City Group all the usual suspects Goldman.
50:37
But I I say, "Hey, why why is it that the it's always the shareholders that are and the brick and mortar of these of these banks that are committing all these crimes, you know, including felonies."
50:47
I think I think JP Morgan's been convicted of five felonies.
50:51
But apparently these felonies are done are not done by any executives or any individuals at the bank.
50:56
They're done by by shareholders because they they pay the fines.
50:59
You know, it's like an income thing for the DOJ.
51:03
Um so maybe if we started prosecuting white-collar crime again.
51:07
Like I said under Trump last time it was hit all-time low and I I don't know if it would be any better under Biden.
51:13
Um I don't know if he would have been aware if it was any better under him or not, but they they need to start doing that because then people say, "Okay, uh I feel like the ship is being righted."
51:22
You need to change you need to get get boost people's morale. Yeah.
51:27
And I think and I pointed out in prior interviews that I think most Americans feel like that our leaders are this includes not just the president but the Senate and the and the Congress care more about people of farmer lobbyists or care more about people in Ukraine or people in Israel than they do about Americans.
51:49
I mean, there's a great article from a couple years ago about Scranton.
51:52
And it says, you know, people in Scranton, you know, Ukraine is a very small issue for them.
51:57
They're worried about they see there's something wrong with the American dream.
52:01
There's something there's a malaise.
52:02
There's a you know, it's almost like a Carter era type feeling.
52:05
And and so instead of Reagan, you get Trump this time.
52:10
But and but because I think people wanted a change and I hope that that they're going to see a change.
52:15
And I hope Trump takes advantage of these four years and the Republican Congress um take it advantage of this so they don't get voted out and we go back to, you know, I don't know, Gavin Newsom or something, you know, and as someone in the uh the People's Republic of California, that's not a good thing.
52:31
So, but it would get Hey, I'll actually I support him running for president because it would get him the hell out of California, but maybe Karen Bass will be his running mate, but I mean, yeah, there there's things like we can do accountability accountability.
52:44
I keep coming back to that and people that need to see because if you notice like when they were like, you know, in California all over the country really but in California especially, you know, they'd have these guys just go in and just take whatever they want and run out of the store.
53:00
And a lot of times you'd have videos of this.
53:01
People would film it and then you know, security guard would be standing there twiddling his thumbs cuz he doesn't want to get fired because they're telling him don't don't stop anybody.
53:07
And you'd actually see patrons patrons going out and grabbing the stuff out of the cart and throwing it and fighting with these these these thieves, these felons and and because they're they're like, wait a minute. This is wrong. I play by the rules. I don't break the law. I don't steal.
53:23
Why is this guy getting away with it?
53:25
And I think on a So, they see it on a small scale and they get upset.
53:27
I think on a large scale they see it, too.
53:31
You know, how the hell is John Mack and and Lloyd Blankfein billionaires today?
53:34
You know, that's not right.
53:34
I mean, most people have no idea who those guys are, but I'm saying someone like me that that angers me in the the way that it angers me if I see a shoplifter, you know, running out with a TV or something, you know?
53:44
It's like, "Hey, buddy, you know, I'd love to have a, you know, some fancy new TV, too, but I'm going to pay I'm going to work and pay for it, you know?"
53:51
And people people have a sense of justice and right and wrong, your average guy, and I think they see that there's no justice and no right and wrong once you get above a certain level.
53:59
So, particularly if you're at a a large financial institution because, you know, as Eric Holder said, you know, "Well, we can't, you know, it would it might hurt the economy if we prosecute JP Morgan or if we prosecute Citigroup."
54:10
I mean, Citigroup should not exist, you know?
54:12
But But neither should a lot of these banks, but, you know, this goes back to Glass-Steagall.
54:16
So, that let's let's say I'm dictator and which I'd love to be.
54:20
Tomorrow, first first item of legislation, no, let's say I'm president.
54:23
First item of legislation is is reenact Glass-Steagall, break up these big banks.
54:27
I think even Kevin Warsh was just saying that and he's a Fed insider and he loves the Fed.
54:30
So, but at least he's got more common sense than most of these Fed guys, I think, from over the years listening to him.
54:35
I think he has he has an understanding Uh you talk about cluelessness.
54:41
I've said before, I I I don't know that there's any group of people with less self-awareness than than central bank officials.
54:47
And and WEF guys are just like that, you know, they're they're they're they're they live in their own rarefied world.
54:53
But I'll you know, the St.
54:55
Louis Fed or the New York Fed or even the Fed reserve sometimes they'll have these tweets and they'll say things like, "Uh housing is increasingly become a problem for young people or something, you know?
55:04
Here, join our we're having a conference on this to discuss it."
55:06
And I'm like, "Do you guys have any clue about what you did, like buying, you know, almost $3 trillion of MBS and its effect on the housing market?"
55:16
Do you guys, you know, which they had zero in 2008, right? They still have like 2. 3 trillion.
55:21
I mean, and no one And this is goes back to the media, too.
55:24
No one says, "Hey, gosh, could could the Fed monetizing few trillion of MBS have affected the the the, you know, the mortgage market at all?" I I I don't know.
55:34
The cluelessness is a big problem in our society.
55:38
Especially at our major institutions.
55:40
What there's no accountability going back to like the Fed conference yesterday.
55:42
I was talking to you I think maybe before we started recording.
55:44
They don't or they they don't There's no accountability.
55:47
As Joseph Wang who's from the New York Fed is a guy you might be familiar with on Twitter.
55:54
He's He says you know all the people that said inflation was transitory and no big deal.
55:57
All the people who fought for that average inflation targeting that insane policy that they adopted around 2020.
56:06
All those people are still there.
56:06
They still have their jobs.
56:07
And this is a guy that used to work at the New York Fed as a trader.
56:10
And he says you know there's no incentive to care.
56:12
You know there's they don't care if there's if if if inflation's 20%.
56:16
They don't care if we have to have a recession to to they're They're not going to lose their job.
56:21
In fact, I think the only people that ever lost their job were like the at the Fed were were were people like who got fired for not getting the vaccine at the Minneapolis Fed.
56:29
And I I've asked Neil Kashkari if he's reinstated those people with back pay.
56:35
Not that I think they were doing anything productive, but there was there was they fired them.
56:39
You know, and that was probably the only time people at the Fed were ever fired.
56:42
They're certainly never fired for making bad decisions.
56:45
Otherwise Janet Yellen would have been out of out of a job, you know, decades ago.
56:50
So, I agree on accountability and I'm I'm always I'm always trying to figure out okay.
56:56
So, if we restored accountability, if we restored some kind of let this rule of law where you're either above that bright line or you're below that bright line.
57:06
I remember when I was coming up in the industry in the '80s and early '90s like our council would literally rewrite commentaries that I would write because he he used to joke Jim you write like a meal Legat's cooks.
57:22
Bam, you know, and and he and he would be and he would say I love I love it, but this is puffery. And I'm like poppery?
57:33
And he goes, and I was like looking at other things that I really kind of thought were poppery, but like those rules were in place.
57:40
And we knew there was a bright line.
57:43
Here's what you Here's what you can do as an asset manager, and here's what you can't do.
57:50
But it was also the idea of I was bound by the fiduciary rule.
57:53
In other words, when you're a fiduciary, you have to put your clients' interests ahead of your own.
58:00
And I take that really seriously.
58:03
So, for example, at all of our companies, our employees, including me, could only invest our equity investments in our own strategies, right?
58:11
We believed very deeply that the cook should eat their own cooking.
58:16
And to me, that was just like, you know, kind of table stakes.
58:21
And so, it was with like just increasing confusion as I saw all of that kind of go by the wayside.
58:28
And and it it's it's just like literally when you remove accountability, like you're basically, I think.
58:39
And so, okay, Glass-Steagall, um what what other kind of ideas would you have to to right the ship?
58:46
Because you also make the very uh uh good point that like what we've seen is kind of like it When I was growing up, I was transfixed by the I was Okay, I'm outing myself as an uber nerd here, but like I was 13 years old during the Watergate hearings, and that summer, that's all I did was watch those because I was so like transfixed by and and and this sounds silly, but like the American system worked, right?
59:17
You you had you had Nixon committing these crimes, trying to do the cover-up.
59:22
The Senate was like, yeah, that's not going to fly, man.
59:26
And he he was forced to resign because they would have impeached him.
59:31
And and so, it's like there's the this confluence of events where you see the media, right?
59:38
The You you mentioned taking publications, and it was funny because I I also did the same as you, except I took um I took National Review and Mother Jones. Sure.
59:50
I don't even I don't even know if Mother Jones is still around.
59:52
Uh but Mother Jones back then was the most left-wing Yeah.
59:57
new uh magazine that you could you could read.
59:59
And like I would read them simul- I In other words, I would read them together.
1:00:04
And and try to learn, okay, so is there any kind of synthesis here?
1:00:09
And by the way, as you found, no doubt, uh similar, yeah, there there it might have only been like 15 or 20%.
1:00:18
But there there was a synthesis of those types uh that you could say like get behind.
1:00:26
Look, my challenge is like how do you other than through the market?
1:00:31
I've And again, I'm a huge fan of actual free markets, not rigged markets, not not regulatory capture markets, but free markets where like if you up, guess what? You go bankrupt. You lose your company.
1:00:46
You, you know, you got to roll your sleeves up and and try again.
1:00:52
What other things could could we look look to root for, staying with that theme, uh that might be helpful uh with the overall lack of accountability on on of all of our institutions, basically.
1:01:08
I've been convinced now of term limits.
1:01:10
Uh for years I kind of said, well, you know, we have term limits every 2 years in in Congress and every, you know, 6 years in the Senate.
1:01:16
But Paul Macro on Twitter I I was talking with recently, he did a um he made a great point that the one thing that our our founders who wrote in the Constitution never considered, never conceived of was that there would be people who would want to do politics as a career or the people who would expect to be paid for doing this.
1:01:39
And I don't think he can imagine the kind of senators we have like going after RFK who if they as people have listed their their farmer contributions, you can directly see a correlation between the ferocity of the attack and the and the political contributions.
1:01:53
So I think term limits now could they pass? Um I don't know.
1:01:59
But term limits I think I would absolutely support now at all levels.
1:02:03
And it can be some reasonable thing.
1:02:05
I know, you know, maybe maybe two terms for a senator and maybe I don't know, five terms for a congressman or something like that.
1:02:11
I don't know, but I'm just saying we need that these career politicians is a problem because they're not beholden to you or I or any body.
1:02:20
They're beholden to the people that give them millions of dollars.
1:02:21
So it's it's it's corruption that I think that I think that's something like, you know, Washington and Madison and and Monroe and everybody would agree on.
1:02:28
We we they never foresaw somebody like a Nancy Pelosi, you know, trading stocks and being, you know, or a Feinstein basically you know, until she drops off drops dead in the in the in the Senate.
1:02:41
You know, that so so that's a problem and I think that's that's one solution.
1:02:47
Um I think we need to bring back moral hazard, too. You know what?
1:02:51
It's okay if the stock market, you know, right in early in January when we already knew a pandemic was coming if you were paying attention 2020 um there was a great, you know, the market was down in January like 15% and I remember Steve Liesman was on TV going the Fed needs to step in and act now. And I replied to him.
1:03:08
I said, not that he ever replies to me, but I said, "Hang on a second."
1:03:12
I go young people that are starting careers and have 401k plan or something that stocks are now 15% cheaper than they were.
1:03:19
Why why So what we do is we pick winners and losers and as uh uh what we've done is is is overwhelmingly reward people like you and me and and I mean we get rewarded but certainly people like you know John Mack and Jamie Dimon and they get rewarded on infinitely high David Tepper and everybody on infinitely higher level but um at the expense of young people.
1:03:46
Uh it's the the metaphor I use or analogy I use I always get those confused is that we know where you and I are take all our grandkids and family out to dinner at fancy place tell them to order whatever they want and then and then we leave we skip out.
1:03:58
So um I think I think we need to bring back moral hazard which um I think Volcker there's Volcker's quoted as saying that he thinks uh I think Russell Napier said this that that Volcker told him that when he thinks that when the Fed jumped the shark was with Long-Term Capital Management in '98.
1:04:18
Um there's an Chancellor's book he talks about how Warren Buffett actually had a higher offer for you know he he would buy up the remains of Long-Term Capital but uh if that had happened they wouldn't have all gotten you know their bonuses or whatever they wouldn't have all gotten their money back eventually so they they didn't take his higher offer.
1:04:37
I think that was in Volcker's eyes apparently that was the that was the beginning of the real corruption.
1:04:42
the real corruption. Um of course uh 2008 was just corruption in spades and you know what in March 2020 I said you know the sound you hear right now is the Gini ratio exploding going up because all those programs there now everybody got hey now here's your check for $1,200
1:05:02
you know Jim but and I was actually you remember all those Fed programs they set up I just saw a list of them the other day there was dozen and the I went in and I said I want to see who's getting these these hundred two hundred million dollar loans at, you know, point five percent interest." And
1:05:16
And it was LLCs set up in the Cayman Islands like a month before a week before.
1:05:22
You know, it was it was the biggest feeding frenzy.
1:05:27
I think 2020 the the the theft upwards was even over overwhelmed 2008-2009, you know.
1:05:33
If you remember with with well, we I when I say if you remember, I know you remember, but TARP, for example, that was a big bait and switch.
1:05:41
They the the only reason it passed is because on the second vote was that they said they told Congress it would be for you know, to help the homeowners.
1:05:48
And also cuz Congress between the first vote it was three pages and then by the time they voted on the second TARP it was 450 pages, right?
1:05:55
But it but immediately Paulson and Geithner and Kashkari said, "No, no, we're not going to help that."
1:06:02
They wanted to help the banks.
1:06:03
And that was it with that's what it was all about.
1:06:04
And I keep pointing out like in the same year that these banks were going bankrupt, they they handed themselves out tens of billions of dollars of bonuses, you know.
1:06:10
And and that kind of thing when I point that out to people, of course I'm aware of this because I have the freedom to, you know, pay attention to this.
1:06:20
When I point this out to people over the years, they're like, "Are you kidding me? No way.
1:06:24
They did they they gave how many?
1:06:26
They gave a thousand bonuses?
1:06:27
Goldman gave a thousand bonuses over a million dollars in 2008?"
1:06:29
You know, they're like they can't they can't believe it.
1:06:32
But there you know, it it's there it is, you know.
1:06:34
It's So, we need to have we need to bring back moral hazard, you know.
1:06:39
It's okay if the stock market drops.
1:06:40
I mean, we survived 50% index drops in '01 to '03 and '08-'09. And so what?
1:06:50
I mean, I remember Bush's thing on TARP, he gave a speech and he said, you know, "If TARP doesn't pass, you know, more banks will close, the stock market will fall."
1:06:59
Well, as I point out in his speech, every every single single thing he said happened anyway.
1:07:03
It's just and the market went down 40% or something after TARP passed.
1:07:08
So, you didn't save anything.
1:07:11
And And frankly, what is it?
1:07:11
93% of stocks are owned by 10% of the people or something like that.
1:07:16
You know, for most people, stocks are like, you know, coffee table talk or something.
1:07:19
And half America owns no stocks in any form.
1:07:23
As As Horse is one of those good at pointing that out, too. So, that's one thing.
1:07:28
I mean, you know, um common ground on certain issues like I keep bringing up.
1:07:32
Here's a no-brainer, I think, for for far left and far right, civil forfeiture.
1:07:37
You know, they pull you over in a car, Jim, and you've got you've got $3,000 cash.
1:07:40
Well, where did you get the cash?
1:07:42
Well, I I, you know, I sold a lawnmower and this and that.
1:07:45
You know, oh, well, well, we're going to confiscate this.
1:07:46
We think this is from drug proceeds.
1:07:48
I mean, it's fine if they want to take you to court and charge you and prove that you you had were in the drug business, but that's not what's happening.
1:07:56
And I've heard heard horror stories about people who don't have the resources to hire a lawyer.
1:08:01
And they they they may have just sold a car or something and they're driving cross-country and they get pulled over somewhere in the South and they say, "Hey, what's this five grand of cash we found?
1:08:08
Um you could spend One of the cases was, "Hey, you know, they had two kids or something.
1:08:12
You Hey, you can you can spend the weekend in jail till the judge comes on Monday and we'll send your kids to foster care or you can give up the $5,000." Yeah.
1:08:20
I mean, so that's something.
1:08:20
I mean, let's talk about common ground that we should be, but nobody Who's the advocate for that in Congress?
1:08:27
Who's going to be the advocate Who's going to be the advocate in Congress for for term limits?
1:08:31
I mean, how does that happen?
1:08:32
Because, you know, none of them want term limits.
1:08:35
The same thing with the two-party system, too.
1:08:36
I was really happy to see I'm happy to see um Marianne Williamson and and RFK and there was all these other candidates.
1:08:44
Of course, the Democrats completely shut down the um the primary process because to to to defend a senile candidate, which was really criminal when you think about it.
1:08:53
And as someone pointed out the other day, you know, all these pardons and things that were done, I mean, was Joe even aware of them?
1:08:58
Who Who Who was running the administration the last four years? We Nobody really knows.
1:09:01
I don't know if we'll I guess maybe in 10 years someone will spill the beans, but um we we just need to have more accountability.
1:09:10
I keep going back to that and and um term limits would be great.
1:09:14
Glass-Steagall would be great.
1:09:14
Let's have some white-collar prosecutions would be great.
1:09:17
When people start seeing accountability um I don't know what else uh I don't even pay attention much to the stock market anymore because why?
1:09:25
It's just you know as it's like it's Mike Green's passive machine, you know, just did you know money in and then they buy.
1:09:31
There's no it's price insensitive investing.
1:09:34
So Aaron, I don't know what we could do to fix that.
1:09:36
I know Mike probably has some ideas about you know, a lot of legal things that just force people to be into these these same old things and someday uh maybe that's going to end badly.
1:09:45
Um I don't know withdraw from you know, it seems like every time we bomb a country we we end up creating more enemies. Maybe stop doing that.
1:09:55
Um maybe instead of building schools in in Ukraine or Af- Afghanistan or or or sending aid We're still sending aid Afghanistan.
1:10:03
I mean maybe we could send aid to some American cities, you know, I hear North Carolina could use some help.
1:10:08
Um you know, California could use some help, too, you know, um I don't know.
1:10:13
You say you're surrounded by a bunch of liberals in Connecticut.
1:10:16
I'm I I I I I live in a you know, deep deep deep blue uh state and um but I'm wondering, you know, all those people in Pacific Palisades and and Pasadena, two very liberal areas.
1:10:25
I wonder when they start having to deal with the Coastal Commission and the um the the the the permitting and the the city and all that.
1:10:31
I wonder if they're going to maybe move a little bit more to the center.
1:10:35
Um that would be that would be good.
1:10:37
Yeah, wasn't that one of Milton Friedman's jokes that a conservative is a liberal who got mugged? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:10:47
Well, those people I think are good If they haven't got mugged yet, I think they're going to be mugged.
1:10:49
I I think I I think it was Gunlock yesterday who who lives up there apparently um was saying uh on CNBC like you you have no idea how bad it is.
1:10:58
And And that's That's That's what I've seen.
1:11:01
This It's so bad we don't even begin to know the ramifications of these fires um as far as rebuilding.
1:11:06
I mean I don't even know how they're going to be able to do it.
1:11:09
It's just going to There's so much that has to be done.
1:11:10
I mean, they're saying it's going to take a year and a half more to clear just clear the garbage out. Toxins and everything.
1:11:17
So, it's that is that is just I think the ramifications of those fires are going to be just massive on the seventh you what the seventh largest economy in the world.
1:11:25
Um I don't know if they're going to be good or bad.
1:11:29
I mean, I guess by Paul Paul Krugman's logic, if you if you burn all the houses down, that's good for GDP because, you know, you build them back up, but um I think it's There's I don't know.
1:11:39
I guess if you're a construction worker, you probably got a job for the next 10 years, but that's if they let you build.
1:11:43
I you know, the one of the things I'm thinking is maybe they's they zone it all multi-family and they put up 100,000, you know, apartments or something instead of uh the old Pacific Palisades.
1:11:53
You know, that's what Karen Bass and Gavin Newsom want to do. So, um I don't know. I don't know.
1:11:56
It'd be interesting, but I think that's another huge issue.
1:11:59
So, uh lots to uh drill down on there, but you did remind me when you talked about burning down the houses being good for the economy of one of my favorite philosophers who masquerades as a science fiction writer, Douglas Adams.
1:12:13
Remember Remember the story where the guy the consultants come in and and they tell the planet that what they need to do is uh use uh tree leaves as their currency.
1:12:24
And then they have an emergency meeting like 2 weeks later with the consultant saying, "Um so, after converting uh tree leaves to our currency, we have all become immensely rich.
1:12:39
However, inflation seems to be a problem.
1:12:43
And so, rather than not use tree leaves as the currency, we suggest that we immediately engage in a planet-wide deforestation.
1:12:55
Where we where we burn all the trees to the ground. That's how they think.
1:12:59
That's how the economists think.
1:13:00
I'm always making fun of them.
1:13:02
You know, Bill Dudley actually said uh some years back after some major hurricane, he says, you know, hurricanes are going to be good for in the long run because it'll bring all this rebuilding. This is how they think.
1:13:11
And they And And just like if you go to someone in the store and you say, "Hey, if prices go up 5%, is that bad?"
1:13:17
And they're like they might They probably would say, "God, I wish they would only go up 5%."
1:13:20
But But But if you ask Paul Krugman, is 5% inflation bad?
1:13:25
He'd go, "No, I think it's I think it's what we need."
1:13:26
You know, so they they just completely they they don't think like normal people.
1:13:29
And I posted many examples of that.
1:13:31
It's kind of an ongoing fun thing to do.
1:13:35
But then kind of back to the solutions.
1:13:38
Uh my friend Philip Howard uh has written several books about a lot of this decoupling happened when we stopped holding people accountable and created a law or rule.
1:13:52
And And so, he's got a good book called The Rule of Nobody.
1:13:54
Because basically what he articulates in his book is, you know, in the old days uh a teacher in a public school system was left to make up their own decision on how to react to any number of things going wrong in the classroom or or what have you.
1:14:14
And that now, like literally the rules governing and I think he used New York's public school system are thicker than an old phone book.
1:14:22
And that literally it takes any option away from the individual teacher who is there when the incident is occurring.
1:14:32
And then he And he And then he goes on to say, "Same thing for judges.
1:14:36
In the old days, the judge was given wide discretion over um uh the sentencing of somebody or dismissing something.
1:14:46
and and then we we created laws that took all of that um authority and ability that used discretion away from people in uh authority making making uh accountability at because accountability is obviously at the individual level.
1:15:08
And and making that much much more difficult.
1:15:11
So, a thing I might add to your list of uh things bringing moral hazard back, term limits, etc.
1:15:17
would be kind of a sunset provision for laws whereby a law exists for 10 years and then sunsets and and is no longer a law unless the then Congress re-enacts it.
1:15:33
Um because I think that that would clear out a lot of you know, laws that just accumulate and and nobody as you mentioned, you know, by the time they passed the the uh version of the PP uh PP uh TARP TARP TARP TARP TARP, right? Thank you. It was like 500 pages.
1:15:51
The original one was three pages. Um yeah. Pork, exactly.
1:15:57
And another thing that I think might be helpful is now that we have uh generally pretty useful large language models, like all laws should be put through an AI and put into English in my opinion. Oh, that's a great idea. Like the Patriot Act.
1:16:14
Let's I should ask In fact, I'll ask that later.
1:16:16
I'll ask Can you summarize the Patriot Act? Because nobody read it.
1:16:19
And I they had There's a great quote from Dennis Kucinich, "Why did you vote Why did you vote against Why he says, "Why did I vote against the Patriot Act? Because I read it."
1:16:27
He's probably the only one who read it.
1:16:30
And uh another reason I like that guy.
1:16:32
Uh you know, what you were talking about just now is uh it's like zero tolerance, you know, when remember when that got in the school, zero tolerance.
1:16:36
So, they literally if you brought a nail clipper to school or a nail file or you know, I grew up every boy had a pocket knife in his pocket.
1:16:44
Every boy No one ever pulled and there was fights and nobody ever pulled a knife in a fight.
1:16:48
You just back then you just didn't do that.
1:16:49
But nowadays you if you bring a pocket knife to or not a pocket knife Well, if you brought a pocket knife to school you probably go to Gitmo, but if you brought a nail They actually have people like a kid with a little nail clipper or something treated as if you brought an Uzi. You know what I mean?
1:17:02
Because it's zero tolerance.
1:17:04
Anything that could be a weapon.
1:17:04
You know, so that's the kind of zero thinking is is zero tolerance is zero thinking and they and I know these judges sometimes you're right they're put under man mandatory sentencing and they're not allowed to consider that you know, mitigating circumstances I guess in many cases.
1:17:17
Um That's another that's another issue, you know, and when I'm dictator I'm going to I'm going to fix all of these things, you know, so Well, I also I I also think that like you know, um it you also have to walk the walk.
1:17:31
So uh you know, and set an example.
1:17:35
What Well, I was still uh with Wells Fargo as a as a manager when they offered those loans, right?
1:17:44
Um like if you were just purely rational and you said, "Wait a minute.
1:17:48
They're offering me a loan that is forgivable."
1:17:52
In other words, they're offering me a bunch of money and so I had some people on the team particularly on the financial side.
1:17:58
They we should we should apply for this and I I went I don't I don't yell.
1:18:04
I don't shout, but I was like absolutely not.
1:18:11
And and they were they they kind of looked at me like, "What's wrong with you?
1:18:14
You're You're saying no to free money?" And I'm like, "No. Money is never free. And we don't need that.
1:18:21
So if we take that, we are taking that money from somebody who might really truly truly need it.
1:18:32
And so other things like I I just do I do believe you've got to walk the walk.
1:18:39
You you know, you got to not take that free money.
1:18:41
You've got a like another solution for inequity like I shouldn't get social security.
1:18:47
Like I would be entirely in favor of a litmus test where people above a certain net worth or income level just don't get social security.
1:18:59
And and yet that seems very non-controversial to Yeah.
1:19:05
And yet like even I've had very very liberal friends say, I understand why you are saying that, but Jim you don't get it.
1:19:13
If we put a litmus test in then people will stop seeing it as a social benefit for everyone.
1:19:20
And and then you know, it'll be easier to argue against. And I'm like Yeah.
1:19:29
Okay, but we have a real problem here.
1:19:32
And and these are simple things that we could do to is it going to get rid of the problem? Absolutely not.
1:19:37
But will it ameliorate it to a certain extent? I think so.
1:19:42
And and so like Same same same same kind of thing on on immigration and and all of those things like there are simple straightforward ways that you can make rational intentional immigration policies that are good for the country, good for people wanting to come here.
1:20:02
I mean like all the all and yet it just always devolves into these these screaming matches.
1:20:09
I to the point where you know, you just know unanimity and also the idea of seeing the person on the other side of the aisle as your sworn enemy.
1:20:22
You mentioned earlier in our conversation about like you know, we could go at it hammer and tongs and then go have a beer together.
1:20:28
But that actually happened when Reagan was president and Tip O'Neill was Speaker of the House.
1:20:34
Those guys used to like eviscerate each other on news and you know, when they were having conferences and things, but then they have a drink together in the Oval Office at the end of the day.
1:20:48
They're both Irish, weren't they?
1:20:49
And that Yeah, they were Yeah, the Irish could do that.
1:20:51
I'm a big fan, big fan of the Irish.
1:20:55
Yeah, no, this that's what we need to get back to.
1:20:56
And I think, you know, I mean, you know, of course Trump will call, you know, I think Trump does that secretly.
1:21:01
He'll call someone like the worst names in the book and then you'll see them later at a party hanging out or something, you know.
1:21:06
So, I think maybe people understand that it's it's kind of a game or a or a it's all part of a cave What is it? Kayfabe?
1:21:12
Is that the expression where it's like the wrestlers, you know, and Yeah, it's funny, you know, as a just brief aside on that Social Security, Greenspan told Congress in in the mid-90s he says, "Oh, we can guarantee all the Social Security benefits you want as far out as you want."
1:21:29
He goes, "But I cannot guarantee their purchasing power." That's right.
1:21:34
Hence the incentive for for higher inflation, you know, as I you know, you know, just to go off again as they say uh as I've I've said, the Fed they all want higher inflation. They all want it.
1:21:45
They just can't acknowledge that they want higher inflation.
1:21:46
So, they have to have all the hedonics and all the other little tricks and everything, but yeah, that's that's the way out I think for them.
1:21:53
And Social Security will be another one.
1:21:54
I do I do think they'll try stuff like what you said first, they'll put maybe an income limit on it.
1:21:57
At some point they're going to have to, right?
1:22:00
And then um and maybe they'll raise raise the age and uh I've always come from the assumption that I'm never going to see a penny from it.
1:22:07
So, um I'm not really that worried about it.
1:22:10
Um but other people it's what they need to to survive, you know, and but I think that money was already spent.
1:22:16
I mean you know, how many wars do we have this century that we didn't that we put on the credit card, you know, so uh and I think inflation's the way that most people see that they're going to get out of that and um as I like to say, you know, yeah, yeah, you know what? I hear that a lot.
1:22:30
Mostly, but I never hear it from poor or middle-class people.
1:22:33
I always hear it from very well-off people that inflation's the answer.
1:22:36
So, you know, the Bill Ackmans and the Barry Sternlichts and everybody else.
1:22:41
So, anyway, just getting back to my my nom de guerre.
1:22:47
But the idea that I mean, there are there are a set of solutions and we've discussed several of them here that that have kind of low cost in quotes in terms of like enacting them like a a limit on social security, bringing back moral hazard, that kind of stuff. Term limits. Term limits, thank you.
1:23:10
That have sunset of laws, etc.
1:23:13
That that have um you know, big impact tied to reasonably uh implementable costs, right? Yeah.
1:23:23
And I just wonder like given the current environment how do you how do we change that to like for example uh investigative journalism.
1:23:35
And I I I used to say, you know, I I would probably look very favorably on a proposal to start a a new uh company or or journal or some uh concern where they literally where where their mandate was we're going to go after every grift, every political malfeasance and and keep it and here's the part where it, you know, maybe my mom used to say um if wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
1:24:13
Um Yes, there are other versions of that, yeah.
1:24:16
Yeah, yeah, but but the the idea keep it completely non-partisan.
1:24:23
And like here's a scandal, let's go get them.
1:24:27
Yeah, do you think something like that's possible?
1:24:28
Do you think that could even get funded these days?
1:24:32
It would have to be some billionaire that just really was a good guy that was not wanted it to be non-partisan.
1:24:38
I mean, you're not going to get any um I mean nobody's going to advertise, you know, with with these people. Um Right. It's it's tough.
1:24:45
There's no There's no money in it really.
1:24:48
I I and uh I mean other than like the self um you know, the Substack people um uh I guess the top ones make make a ton of money, but um Yeah, no that that would be wonderful.
1:24:58
I would love to see that.
1:24:59
And I like to think that if I was a billionaire when I win the lottery, I'll I'll fund somebody.
1:25:02
Just go go investigate, you know, and of course you got to have a huge legal team because you're fighting against, you know, the most powerful, wealthiest people in the world because that's, you know, a lot of the corruption trickle is trickle-down or, you know, um I always try to punch up.
1:25:17
That's one thing I say is, you know, I'm not I'm always going after people way more powerful wealthy than me and because I see the corruption and I see that it's they don't they get away with it and it bugs me, you know. Um so, I don't know.
1:25:30
I mean, I just I I I just hope uh we need You know what we need?
1:25:34
I I I've talked about this before with Reagan comparing Reagan.
1:25:35
Now, Reagan remember what they called Reagan Hitler.
1:25:39
Um Reagan was a stoop stupid actor who was, you know, like a TV game show host, you know, kind of the a lot of the same things and I'm not saying Trump is Reagan, but Reagan, as you pointed out, came in and he had enemies, real enemies who really hated him.
1:25:53
And yet he he in many cases could go They didn't hate him, but they really didn't like his policies.
1:25:59
And but he could go and hang out with them afterwards.
1:26:01
And I think and I've mentioned this before with Trump.
1:26:03
If Trump can be, you know, a lot of times in his first administration, I felt like he went out of his way to just antagonize, really go after his opponents.
1:26:11
And and sometimes it's justified, but after a while it just gets old.
1:26:16
And I think that turned off a lot of independents in the meantime.
1:26:19
And then, of course, you had the next administration, which was so awful that I think a lot of people who didn't vote who voted for Biden the first time voted for Trump the second time because they said, "I'll give this guy a chance.
1:26:29
It wasn't that bad, you know?"
1:26:29
And but I think what he needs to do is try and get common ground that we've been talking about.
1:26:34
I think he needs to like, you know, meet with an Adam Schiff or a whatever, or try to.
1:26:38
I mean, they're going to grandstand and everything, and but I don't know if Trump had I think he does have it in him because he's used to being friends with all these people.
1:26:46
You know, there's pictures of him at at, you know, with the with uh uh the Clintons at wedding, him and Melania staying right next to Bill and and uh Hillary, smiling away, you know?
1:26:56
There's plenty of pictures of Trump hanging out with people who are now his quote-unquote political enemy.
1:27:01
But I guarantee you behind the scenes, when no one's around, there's no cameras, I bet they're I bet a lot of them are still making cracking jokes and everything.
1:27:08
I mean, look at Trump at the uh at was it Carter's funeral?
1:27:10
With, you know, just joking with Obama, he's joking with everybody.
1:27:14
And somebody made a very great quote.
1:27:16
He's Trump is sitting there joking with Obama, who a few weeks before had been basically saying that Trump was Hitler, right? Right. In front of cameras.
1:27:22
And they're joking and laughing, and the guy, whoever posted this made a great comment.
1:27:28
He says, "You know, imagine like writing off your family or friends over over one of these two because because of one of these two guys. You know what I mean?
1:27:35
Like getting so attached to Obama or so attached to Trump that you think that they are fighting for you."
1:27:40
I mean, I think it's all kind of like a cafe like it's a great great word.
1:27:44
Um it's kind of an act, and I think Trump if Trump can tone his act up to be a little more conciliatory and because he's, you know, he's he's getting his way on a lot of things now.
1:27:54
There's no need to rub it in the in the liberals' faces and stuff.
1:27:57
Try and win a few more over somebody.
1:27:58
I think Reagan did, you know, win some people over who, you know, he won he was the blue he was getting the blue collar Democrat vote back then, you know, remember?
1:28:06
I think kind of like Trump is I mean, Trump got more Hispanic and and black votes than than I think any Republican has like ever.
1:28:12
So, they need to keep that up.
1:28:12
You know, don't don't alienate these people that are now reaching for them. Help them.
1:28:17
They need they need economic help.
1:28:19
I mean, everybody needs everybody needs economic help.
1:28:22
And and they need they need to know that they matter.
1:28:24
And he needs to emphasize that you matter.
1:28:26
He needs to emphasize it not just to Israel and and Ukraine and then the his his, you know, his the hangers-on around him, the billionaires, but he needs to emphasize it to the people in Scranton and the people in California and the people in, you know, all over the country that you matter.
1:28:44
You're an American, you know.
1:28:46
They Besides uh 2008-09, uh what really disillusioned me um and the Iraq War, which was met huge once once I saw how that was handled, but also Hurricane Katrina. Yeah.
1:28:57
I watched that I watched that for like a week.
1:29:00
I was home and I was I had it on.
1:29:03
And it was amazing to me that the difference between what was being shown on the ground and what was being shown in Washington.
1:29:12
You know, Chertoff and Bush were like, "Everything's great. Everything, you know."
1:29:15
And and on the ground you're seeing people who, you know, 80-year-old people who've been on a roof for 4 days, you know.
1:29:20
And and I'm like, "This is America. This is not right.
1:29:23
I don't care that these people are Democrats and black, you know, because Bush was president, you know, Republican."
1:29:28
I'm like, "These are American citizens.
1:29:30
What what are we What's the delay?"
1:29:31
And eventually Americans did what Americans do.
1:29:35
They go in and they they do whatever it takes.
1:29:36
They had the Coast Guard out here went in and did a bang-up job.
1:29:40
I had a buddy who was there the next day, fireman.
1:29:42
He's one of the guys going around the boat scraping you know, right right spray painting on the on the walls how many people are dead inside, you know.
1:29:49
And um So, Americans eventually, you know, do the right thing uh often without leadership.
1:29:54
I mean, look at the people in North Carolina now, you know.
1:29:56
They're they've been Someone sent a post.
1:29:59
Of course, I don't know how what is propaganda what isn't, but I because I didn't verify I didn't check it, but about a ton of, you know, a whole bunch of dump trucks that are headed in North Carolina.
1:30:06
You know, I suppose the the the assumption was, well, it's happening under Trump, it didn't happen under Biden.
1:30:11
I'm like, why Well, if it is happening, I'm glad it's happening, but why didn't it happen under Biden?
1:30:15
You know, these were labels Republican, Democrat.
1:30:19
Most people are neither, I think, you know, and independent. I'm not I'm neither. I don't care.
1:30:22
I I've got big huge problems with both parties.
1:30:24
And I think we need to think again about that we're Americans.
1:30:28
We disagree on some issues, but let's go have a beer afterwards, or let's go help out these people in North Carolina.
1:30:33
Let's help out the people in Altadena.
1:30:35
You know, whether they agree with you politically or not, they're Americans.
1:30:38
I think we need to get back to that.
1:30:39
You're an American, and you're not a gay American, and you're not a you know, a Irish American or a or a you know, Hispanic American.
1:30:46
You're an American first. You really are.
1:30:48
And so, we need to start thinking like that, and our leaders need to start thinking like that.
1:30:53
And so, I really hope for Trump's administration that he he comes through for the non-billionaires, you know, and and and reaches out to these new groups that are that are that voted for him, and doesn't let them down.
1:31:04
Um I think if he does that, it's that'd be great.
1:31:09
Yeah, the and the and the point you're making that I really agree with is the average American is actually a pretty awesome person.
1:31:18
100% And I would let's strip away all these artificial things that try to label people and put them in a category so that we can hate them or love them.
1:31:27
Like I I a lot of European friends who will come here and you know, like to say, "Well, my god, you know, you guys are at each other's throats and everything."
1:31:38
And I would say, "Do you ever go anywhere but here in New York or in California?" And they're like, "No."
1:31:44
And I'm like, "What you should do is you should go to any of the towns that are not New York and not LA or San Francisco, and drive around.
1:31:54
Like what you'll find is that the average American, no matter what, right, doesn't Can It's not contingent on what color they are, what sex they are, what their sexual orientation is. Right. None of those things.
1:32:10
If your car breaks down and you're in what I call real America, Right.
1:32:14
you will probably within 20 minutes have a car stop and offer to help you.
1:32:21
And like that's That is America.
1:32:21
And and the the the more we allow this what I view as artificial kind of Potemkin villages being built of, you know, this is right wing, this is left wing.
1:32:34
That's That isn't what America is all about.
1:32:40
And so I completely agree that when you're talking to your average American, they're kind of go along to get along.
1:32:47
They're offer their help immediately.
1:32:50
You know, when when the towers came down, we volunteered to just go down and and help out.
1:32:55
And like they were like, "Absolutely."
1:32:58
And so they assigned us this lot and basically we were uh you know, giving water to the uh first responders, firemen, cops, etc.
1:33:10
And like I cannot describe to you the feeling of camaraderie of like, you know, horror, obviously.
1:33:18
Cuz these guys are coming in and like I don't know if you run into too many New York firefighters or cops, but they don't cry easily.
1:33:26
And they were literally in tears.
1:33:31
And and like just to just That's the That That's the American spirit that I think we need to try to reinstate.
1:33:39
And then you're talking about Reagan, it it also makes the points that you've made about what's a good leader, right?
1:33:45
A good leader connects with actual citizens.
1:33:50
They're they're pragmatic over ideological.
1:33:53
They they understand history and they hold themselves accountable like Harry S.
1:33:59
Truman, the buck stops here.
1:34:01
Like these these are in the American DNA and it doesn't mean that we have to go back to them exactly, but just like starting with accountability.
1:34:14
Starting with your your your political opponent is not your enemy.
1:34:16
Recognizing what like the other brilliant thing I always thought that Reagan did.
1:34:23
He was the one who started the American heroes.
1:34:26
Whenever he gave the State of the Union address, Yeah.
1:34:31
he would always have sitting with his wife Nancy a group of almost always a nurse, a firefighter, a cop.
1:34:41
You know, and and he called them American heroes, right?
1:34:42
Like this nurse saved this many lives and went out of her way, worked five shifts.
1:34:51
Like again, when all of you like if There's a great quote from Robert Anton Wilson that goes, "The happy man lives in a happy world.
1:34:59
The sad man lives in a sad world.
1:35:01
The dark man lives in a dark world."
1:35:04
In other words, if we're just being fed poison and awful thing after awful thing after awful thing, that's going to affect the national zeitgeist.
1:35:16
And and so I'm not saying that we should be Pollyannaish.
1:35:19
I'm not saying that we should not face problems of which there are many.
1:35:27
I'm saying that again, back to my things to root for.
1:35:31
Like let's root for accountability.
1:35:34
Let's root for an understanding of history.
1:35:37
Let's root for what you know, your average American is actually like as opposed to the caricatures of both sides, the extreme sides of the political spectrum.
1:35:49
And you know, we might have make some progress.
1:35:53
You know, if I just mentioned real quick, there was a a woman I knew who was traveling in the south of France with a couple other people and her car broke down.
1:36:00
Um and this was like not a real touristy area, just rural southern France.
1:36:03
And they had for a variety of reasons it took days and to to get another car.
1:36:08
And in the meantime, they had the local some of the locals there came along when the police were of no use.
1:36:16
They just they get off the road.
1:36:17
But locals came by, oh oh, I know a mechanic.
1:36:21
They here, let me take you to his house. Let me take you.
1:36:25
So these are these are white women.
1:36:25
And these guys were just wonderful. They had families. They were fixed the car.
1:36:32
No, you know, I mean they gave them money, but they were going to do it.
1:36:35
They didn't charge them anything.
1:36:36
They couldn't have been more um gentlemanly and nice to these women, these American strangers.
1:36:40
And they were all French Muslims.
1:36:42
They were all, you know, and if you think a lot of people think you know, I don't think this way, but some people think, oh, Muslims have been white women in southern France, it's going to be No, these guys were wonderful.
1:36:52
And that was great to hear.
1:36:54
And I think that I think that Muslims and Christians and and Jews and Hindu your average guy, not just Americans, your average human being is a good person.
1:37:05
And it is our leaders, I think a lot of times, whether they're religious or whether they're political, who get people riled up um over our differences.
1:37:14
I think So it was it was very good to hear us that about what happened to them in France, that it was just these guys were just wonderful.
1:37:24
Their families were wonderful.
1:37:25
And I think that's a lot year-round.
1:37:27
I mean I mean world world world round, there's good people.
1:37:28
And and we need to maybe try and kill a few less of them, you know.
1:37:33
Um cuz it you know, every time we drop a bomb, you know, maybe we're killing one bad guy, but we might be killing, you know, some wedding party or something, you know, it's not right. Yeah. Yeah, no, I I agree.
1:37:43
And um I think that's a good place for us to end because I'm about to make you the uh emperor of the world and you're going to You're only going to get two though, Rudy.
1:37:56
I know you have more than two. Oh.
1:37:59
But before we get to that final question, I I just think if we can concede that people are not our enemies because they have a different belief than we do.
1:38:10
If we can concede and understand that by by turning a uh our views and our friendships and our family relationships into a draconian if you do this or support this person, I'm going to cut you out of my life.
1:38:28
I think everyone at certainly all of my listeners and viewers, I hope agree.
1:38:35
Like just getting rid of that, like then we can start those small steps back towards these things to root for.
1:38:40
Um like accountability, like term limits, like uh sunsetting of laws, all of all of the above and and keeping in mind and you bring the point out well, it's not just the average American who's a good person.
1:38:57
Basically, most people in the world are good people.
1:39:01
And if we can figure out ways to harness that goodwill, we'll have better tomorrows than we have had yesterdays.
1:39:11
So, Rudy, it's been really fun chatting with you about this.
1:39:14
Now, I am making you emperor of the world.
1:39:18
However, you can't kill anyone.
1:39:23
You can't put any You can't put anyone in a reeducation camp.
1:39:25
But what you can what you can do is we're going to hand you a magic microphone and you can say two things into it that are going to intercept the entire population of the world, all 8 billion.
1:39:38
They're going to wake up whatever their morning is the next day and say, "You know, I just had two of the greatest ideas and unlike all the other times, I'm actually going to act on both of these ideas starting today and and going forward."
1:39:54
What what two things are you going to incept?
1:39:57
I wish I would have thought more about this, but I'll go with go do something nice for no reason to someone who can't help you in any way.
1:40:08
You know You know what I mean?
1:40:08
Just go do that every day.
1:40:09
And uh and the second one uh because I guess this would I I get three this way.
1:40:17
Go to my pin tweet and that's really what I've been all about is been mainly besides making jokes and stuff is is uh the wars, you know, that that uh Washington and Eisenhower warned us about in their farewell addresses and also the what I call the kleptocracy, you know, and we've talked about it in this interview. Accountability.
1:40:36
White-collar crime should be prosecuted.
1:40:39
Uh people need to see that.
1:40:39
And uh I think that would make a big step getting rid of the stupid wars and getting rid of the of the unaccountable financial class, the Cantillon effect.
1:40:47
I think that would be a big step towards um what America and and the world needs.
1:40:55
So, hey man, great talking to you, uh Jim.
1:40:57
Hey, great great talking to you, too.
1:40:58
And your first one, by the way, is also a great filter to use for hiring somebody.
1:41:03
Uh when when I was at uh Osama, I would always end somebody's interview process and everything by taking them to lunch.
1:41:12
And anybody who treated the waiter or waitress poorly, I just would not hire.
1:41:18
Oh, yeah, that's a good one. Yeah.
1:41:18
That was punch-punch down behavior.
1:41:20
And I think you should only punch up.
1:41:24
So, and I know you agree with that.
1:41:27
Rudy, thank you so much for for joining me.
1:41:29
This has been really fun. Yeah, it's been great. Thanks, Jim. Mhm.