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In 1975, in a two-bedroom apartment in New York City, Ray Dalio founded an investment firm.
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Over 40 years later, this firm, Bridgewater Associates, has grown into not just the world's largest hedge fund, but also what Fortune has called the fifth most important private company in the United States.
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Ray Dalio himself also appears on the Time magazine list of the world's top 100 most influential people.
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His philosophy has traveled far and wide beyond the four walls of his hedge fund through the medium of multiple best-selling books, notably Principles, a distillation of the intense rules he built an empire around.
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So, how did he get there?
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I sat down with Ray to talk about the unique ingredients behind his success and the creation of a culture of radical transparency.
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This culture has attracted admiration and disagreement in equal measure.
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We cover his principles and how you can live your life by them, even when challenged.
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Ray, we're going to start with a personal question.
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Many people's personal principles stem at least in part from childhood.
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Your father was a jazz musician.
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Your mother was a homemaker.
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What did your parents teach you that fed into your principles?
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Well, my my dad was a very strong man.
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He fought in World War II.
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He had great determination, but he was also a jazz musician.
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So, he was he had a looseness to him and a sort of a creativity to him.
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So, I think that probably he taught me a self-discipline in a certain creative way.
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And when I say he taught me, he um you know, he I think I frustrated him because I didn't have much of that, but anyway, I think that came through.
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And my mom was very super loving, you know, she adored me.
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She thought I was the greatest thing in the world and I think that probably played into my thinking a little bit.
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It's good to be loved by our moms.
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We are here today, Ray, to talk about your giant idea, principles, which is the core philosophy that underpins your success.
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For anyone listening who hasn't read your book, what are your most important principles?
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I think the most important principles relate to knowing what principles are and having your own as a guide, you know, to think about how you approach things in a in a principled way and I'll I'll explain that and then I'll get into some of my more own particular principles, but I want to start with um principled thinking.
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Uh And maybe I should describe how I came by it.
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I would um make decisions every time I would make decisions, I would pause and reflect and write down my criteria that I was using to make those decisions because everything happens over and over again.
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The same things happen over and over again.
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And then as I would step back, I would by thinking about them and think when another one of those comes along, how would I deal with those?
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And so, a principled thinking is a way of thinking like what are the rules?
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What are the recipes for making decisions that uh that work given how reality works.
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And so, um what I say is you have within you principles or we learn principles uh from our various environments.
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So, religion, religions are a series of principles.
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They're pre-packaged principles, and they're given to you as principles.
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And so, when you start to think in a principled way, then you um everything is simpler because rather than looking at this blizzard of things coming at you, you look at each one of them like you would look at a species, and you say, "It's Oh, it's that type of species.
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It's another one of those.
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And how do I approach those?"
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And by thinking about it, your principles, is that the right way?
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Is it going to get me what I want?
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Yeah, that In that way, you are um creating um a system.
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You're going above yourself, and you're looking about the whole how the whole world works, everything, how reality works.
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You're seeing yourself within reality, including your strengths and your weaknesses, and you say, "How should I interact with reality in order to get the things I want?"
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So, I would say, "Now, if I come down to um you know, my some of my principles that I I've learned a lot about through my experiences of interacting with reality.
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Um it is that you have a nature.
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Every human being has a nature, the preferences. They're innate.
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They may be environmentally determined because of how parents deal with us or our environments in various ways, but we have pulls and characters qualities.
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Some of us are lateral thinkers.
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Some of us are linear thinkers. We're have our nature.
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And we're we're um In that nature, we're on a journey to deal with our realities, to discover what we want, to discover our paths, and to find out what is the best path for us on an ongoing discovery process.
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And in that way, then there are these principles.
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Like one principle that I've really learned is pain plus reflection equals progress.
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I've learned that there are that lessons and and difficulties and failures are great teachers.
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So, anyway, I'm I'm answering your question probably in too long of a way, but I'll stop there.
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But, that's what I would like to pass along to people. Fascinating.
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Your last principle that you mentioned, pain plus reflection equals progress.
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That was one that really resonated with me from your book.
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What painful experiences have you been through that have led to your progress in life?
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Well, I'd like to tell you about one that really stuck in my mind and changed me in a really beneficial way, but it was painful.
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Um 1980 and 81, long time ago, um I had calculated that American banks had lent to foreign countries more money than those countries were going to pay back, and that we were going to have a debt crisis.
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And that was very controversial.
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I got a lot of uh attention on that.
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And then on August um in August of that year, '82, uh Mexico defaulted on its debts, and I got a lot of attention, testified to Congress, was on Wall Street Week, and I thought we were going to have a big debt crisis, and that every the stock market would go down a lot, and I couldn't have been more wrong.
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I That was the exact bottom in the stock market.
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And I lost money for me, I lost money for my clients.
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This is when my business uh was small and starting out.
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And I had to borrow $4,000 from my dad to pay family bills.
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I mean, I was broke and humiliated.
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And it was it was a bad experience.
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But it made me I I paused and I reflected on that experience and I said, "Now, how am I going to have the upside without having the downside?
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What should I do differently?"
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Because I was faced with a choice.
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I had my own business, and it was I want I wanted to do.
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I was Was I going to then put on a tie and suit and commute on the train to go to New York and work on Wall Street?
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I didn't I didn't want to do that.
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I wanted to still have that, but I couldn't have the upside and the downside.
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So, I I started to think, "How do I solve that puzzle?"
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And I And it changed me in in two important ways.
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The first was that I um wanted to find the smartest people I could uh deal with who would stress test my thinking um so that, you know, at that time um I sort of had an arrogance.
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And I needed a humility that would balance my arrogance. Excuse me.
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So, I wanted people who would challenge my thinking in a way before.
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So, that was a a key thing.
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It taught me the humility I needed to balance with my audacity.
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And then I figured out that I could have all the upside with much less downside if I knew how to diversify well.
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I came up with a concept which I call the holy grail of investing, 15 good uncorrelated return streams, and that.
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And so, that development was the exact bottom.
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From that point over the next, you know, decades, it was pretty much a straight upward trajectory um that became that made Bridgewater the largest, the most successful hedge fund in the world.
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Um and and Fortune said it was the fifth most important private company in the world, I mean in the US.
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So, um it was that painful experience and the reflections that came from that that gave me an improvement in an approach that led to the better results.
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And I watch it in other people.
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Like if if if you haven't failed and it hasn't changed you um you're not going to be very successful, pretty much.
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In other words, so I believe that in that principle, that thinking deeply, that painful experience plus deep reflection produces progress. Incredible.
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And uh from the ashes of that crucible moment, Bridgewater was born.
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Uh you've really taken these principles, Ray, and and codified them and expressed them very purely in the firm that you built, Bridgewater.
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And but but what happened at Bridgewater when these principles became challenged?
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Challenging the principles was a key principle.
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If the principles themselves got challenged, what happened then?
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Well, it's it's it's always a reflection.
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You know, if if something doesn't work and then you align it with something that is happening and you have that reflection then you understand reality better. Okay?
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Because everything that happens happens because of causes that make it happen.
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So, there are these cause-effect relationships.
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And so, anything, everything that happens.
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So, when you're having a result that doesn't make sense and you analyze it, you can get a deeper understanding of how reality works and how to deal with it. That's it.
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It's our learning process.
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I think life is like a life is pretty much almost like a video game, you know.
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You go after your goals, you encounter your obstacles, um you get around those obstacles, you figure out how to get around those obstacles, except life is more painful at those moments that you have it that you know if the video game gave you an electric shock, maybe it'd be like that.
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And then you create learning points and you build up those learning points and you go on to higher levels.
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That's what it's like, I think.
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Are we in single player mode then, playing these video games?
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You mean me and the machine as distinct with playing with other people? Exactly.
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So there there's reality.
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We're all dealing with reality.
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And then there's human nature, which is part of that reality, right?
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And that's why there are timeless and universal truths.
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How do you deal with other people and how do you deal with the realities that are beyond those?
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Like we all have a life cycle.
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How do we deal with our life cycle?
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Where are we in our life cycle?
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We all have relationships. We all have aspirations.
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That's just how reality and the other people work.
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So yes, it's a it's a game in which we're dealing with the realities of the game and then we're dealing with each other as people. Fantastic.
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Strikes me more as a philosophy of thought than a religion, but maybe that's a conversation for another day.
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Well, let me be clear what I mean.
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I don't I don't know the distinction between philosophies of thought and religion because um if we look at religions and we say there's um the non um God part of religions, um which many religions don't have.
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They have an approach to life.
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Confucianism, Taoism, um um some of the many of with that.
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They're They're all philosophies of how to live life, but we can not we can get past the debate of what a religion is.
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It is your approach to life we're talking about.
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And whether you choose it yourself to decide what is my What are my principles or whether you get them in a prepackaged form in a in a religion is up to you, but they will be your principles.
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What will I do when I encounter that type of situation?
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And I think the beauty of writing down and thinking through your own principles is that they're real. They're yours. They're internalized. They're reflected on.
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And that gives you a great power.
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The process of actually writing them down and articulating them is part of the journey then.
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Many in our audience today will be investors.
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How do you think they should use principles to perfect their investment processes?
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And do you think that having these principles could ever restrict the creativity and risk-taking involved in investing?
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Um well, first of all, let me say it has nothing to do with investing.
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So, this is I mean it or it's no more what I'm saying is no more true um for investing than it is for anything. I was an entrepreneur.
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It was the same as entrepreneurship.
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It was the same whatever that is.
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Um but since you asked about uh investing, and I also want to answer it in a um in a way that applies to all things is in your area.
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Whatever your area is, there are mechanics.
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There are things that skills that you need to learn in order to be successful.
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So, for example, I mentioned in my earlier description that I learned portfolio construction, essentially.
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I I learned how to take one investment and relate it to another investment based on their correlations and their goodness based on certain things to engineer a package of investments that um was uh um better than any of the individual parts of that package.
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So, I I those So, that's a deep investment principle.
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It's what I call the holy grail of investing.
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Have 15 or more good uncorrelated return streams, you'll reduce the risk by 80% without reducing the expected return.
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Okay, that's an engineering thing.
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But whatever profession, if you're an entrepreneur, if you're an architect, if whatever profession you are, as you learn and you encounter your realities, you will understand the mechanics of those things and you will understand how to put them together and to develop those principles that are suitable for that.
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And that's not just for a career, it's for parenting. It's for being whatever.
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It's anything that you're doing.
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And so, thinking them through so that they're almost second nature to you.
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Um and operating that way is extremely powerful, regardless of what it is.
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Certainly in investing, like that pain plus reflection I told talked about uh in my situation, led me to understand the mechanics of diversification which created the next step, which was my success.
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And that happens in investing, but it also happens in any profession.
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How often do you revisit your principles and potentially alter them or change them?
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Are we talking monthly, annually, every 10 years?
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Or for you at this point, are they basically set? No, no, no.
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The way I The way I think about it um is all of my encounters with reality on an ongoing basis look like that to me.
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And um and then if something happens, it's like a habit that I like to pause and reflect.
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I've had dramatic things happen to me. I mean, I lost the son. Um a 42-year-old son.
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It was the worst thing that ever happened in my life.
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I would have rather died.
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I would have lost everything. Okay. What is my instinct?
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I mean, as I go through it is to reflect on it and to think about that.
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What and then write down those reflections and so on.
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These So, but my life is, you know, not nearly as dramatic as that.
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Uh but so any of those encounters, I find them interesting because they help to convey how does the world work?
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How does the machine work?
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And how should I interact?
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So, I I'm regularly writing them down.
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I would say I probably write down three a week.
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I know I a couple of things I should say about them.
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I because I wrote them down and have them, I've been able to turn many of them into algorithms so that I can create a decision-making machine. Okay.
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So, in the investment area, not just that they got written down and they're words, but they became converted to algorithms that became a decision-making system based on those principles.
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Cuz everything happens over and over again.
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Everything that's happening in the markets happened before many times.
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And when you have those rules and then they're then it's just feeding in data and having it processed like the brain does except in a more organized and more powerful way.
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So, um that's been really the power and the key to the success.
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If I I want to give before I get change the subject, I want to get say two things I would recommend.
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And it by the way, it's the reason I'm here is to pass along I'm 75.
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I want to pass along principles that helped me. That's why I'm here.
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Thank you for letting me to speak to your audience.
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Um I would recommend uh also meditation.
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Um meditation, I learned meditation oh, I don't know.
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60 years ago or something.
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Um and what happens is it helps you uh go above everything and and see things with an equanimity and an understanding of how the machine works and how to interact with it.
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And so it's a it's a powerful tool.
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Um I wanted to pass that along and I do recommend that you reflect. I put out a journal.
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People asked me uh to help them be able to write down their principles. So, I put out a journal.
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Um it's um that they it's a guided journal on how to do that.
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But, I would say those two things affected me a lot. Benefited me a lot. Mhm.
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As a practicing meditator and student of Buddhism, when I hear you talk about interacting with reality, it reminds me a lot of the theory of interdependence.
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So, I I was actually going to ask you how that's influenced the creation of your principles, but it sounds like you've incorporated that pretty deeply through your meditation practice.
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So, moving on to the next topic.
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Ray, in your latest book, you discuss the five forces shaping the world.
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Can you give us an overview of the forces shaping the world today? Yeah.
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There's a big change in the world order.
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Um and what's happening now in its broadest patterns has happened many, many times before throughout history.
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Um one of the lessons I learned from mistakes is uh that one of the things that surprised me, many of the things that surprised me in life, were things that never happened in my lifetime to me before, but happened many times in history.
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I could tell you a story if you want to about how that first came about.
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Um, 1971, I'm clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
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I graduated from college and I was on the um um, the just before my uh going to Harvard Business School.
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And I uh was clerking on the floor of the Stock Exchange.
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And August 15th, 1971, Richard Nixon um gets on the television Sunday night and he says the um promise that holders of money, paper money, could get their gold um, is going to be broken.
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And back then, gold was viewed like money.
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Money in the bank was gold and the Central Bank gave you checks, paper money that was viewed just like checks in a checkbook, having no value.
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And that you were allowed to convert the checks into the real money by going to gold and he broke that promise.
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And I found, "Wow, the money as we know it is ending and I'm okay, there's a big crisis."
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I went on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
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Um, and I thought that um I got there early.
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I thought that chaos was going to break out and the chaos did break out, but it was a chaos on the upside.
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Everything went up a lot. And I so I was wrong.
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And I because I never experienced the a devaluation before.
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And I studied history and I found that in uh March of 1933, Roosevelt did the exact same thing on the radio and it went up a lot because that printing of money a undervalued money and everything went up in in money terms.
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So, I That was one of the first times.
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So, I I got into a habit of realizing that if there is some things that are big and haven't happened before, I need to study them.
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I studied the Great Depression of the '30s and that allowed me to anticipate and make a lot of money in the global financial crisis in 2008.
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So, history if if it doesn't come across before, if I haven't seen it in this magnitude before, I I go to history and I study that.
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That So, that's what happened in this case that you're talking about that led me right do this study which ended up being this book.
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And so, the three forces that I saw that were happening and that are happening is the amount of debt creation and money printing that has been taking place.
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And not not it's not seen in our lifetimes before.
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You have to go to the '30s to see those order magnitude.
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The second is the internal conflict of populism of the left and the right irreconcilable differences over wealth and values that are causing something that is approaching a type of civil war irreconcilable differences and and operating in a way that I've never seen before but operate but happened in history.
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And then number three is the great world power conflict.
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The United States through most of my life was the dominant power.
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And now with the rise of China and the broader rise of countries, we have a situation in which the world order, who sets the rules, how does the game work, is changing and so we're seeing a great power conflict.
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Those three things coming together are worrisome things and I it prompted me to then study history, the last 500 years of history.
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Um and uh so that's in that book.
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And what I saw before is then the two others.
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The The third The fourth is um acts of nature.
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Um droughts, floods, and pandemics have killed more people and and toppled more orders than the first three I mentioned um throughout history.
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And then number five is man's learning and technology.
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Um so what when we look at this, everything important that is happening really falls under those things.
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And And there's an interrelationship between those things.
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Like if you have a debt problem, you have more political problems and social problems.
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If you have a war, then that war is costly and that causes economic problems and so on.
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And so I saw those things come together almost to create this perfect storm.
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And so when I look at what's happening now, I I dropped out in each one of those things and I watch it.
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And I think that we are at a a major turning point because I think the world in three to five years is going to be radically different.
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It'll be like going through a time warp because there's the debt issue, but there's like 2024 is going to be a very telling year in terms of how we deal with each other politically and so on.
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And then the geopolitical thing, the the wars in outside and the conflicts that are the bigger conflicts. And certainly climate.
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Climate is a big big issue um economically as well as impact-wise.
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It costs $8 trillion a year, roughly speaking. That's 8% of world GDP.
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And of course, technology.
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Technology is going to have a giant-ly impactful the development of many technologies.
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AI, of course, but beyond that, many technologies.
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Quantum physics, you know, all sorts of biological impacts and so on.
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So, I think we're going to go through a time warp, and that's what that study was in a way that we've operated in patterns before.
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What to do about these things is also embedded in the lessons of history.
27:22
Ray, we could spend, I think, the next 3 hours discussing some of these topics, particularly technology and climate, which is where we invest at Giant.
27:27
So, $8 trillion is costing the world on an annual basis.
27:32
How do you think we can mobilize technology and capital to solve some of these big problems we face as a planet like climate change?
27:39
Well, I'm I I'm very involved with this.
27:43
Um and although it is a a great investment, like education would be a great investment for the population, the society doesn't make those investments, and I think to some extent, uh those who are seeking to get the money, politicians and those who want climate change and so on, are um are naive that the what you have to do is you have to look at who has the money, and what are their motivations?
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How does the machine actually work?
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And uh I won't go through the all of the who's got what money and what their motivations are, but I think it what it comes down to it is that the greatest potential um now is going to be, I think, we're at a point where um in through investment.
28:44
Yeah, yeah, you'll turn you'll turn a lot of money loose on this if you can create a positive return on investing in it.
28:54
I I know I live in the world of institutional investors.
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The largest institutional investors in the world been client of mines and and I know them and they would be eager to invest in this and put money into this, but they have their constituents that they have to earn returns from.
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And so there's like now a lot of entrepreneurship and a lot of innovation that's taking place.
29:20
And I think that making that connection so that just as we're talking about the AI investment perhaps bubble.
29:27
I mean a lot of money's going into AI in lots of ways.
29:33
I think that the climate resources a lot of money's going to go into climate.
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Like I say 8% of GDP one way or another.
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And so I think that there we're at precipice just about to begin the brink of having a big investment boom in terms of that area and making it profitable to make those kinds of investments.
29:54
Of course not everything is profitable.
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There are other things that could be done. You can a lot of things.
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You can have you know carbon taxes.
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You can have many many things.
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Unfortunately those also are not politically possible because the population as a whole doesn't want to bear the burdens of those.
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So anyway, I think that there are three types of impacts of climate.
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The first is to try to have what we call mitigation to try to minimize temperature rising to keep 1 and 1/2 degrees in mind and try to shoot for that.
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That means developing new technologies which we are developing to some extent.
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Solar, um wind, uh batteries, you know, other things.
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Um then there's um the actual adaptation.
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In other words, now you have to build your seawalls, or you have to build your how you're going to deal with that.
31:01
And then there's the actual cost of it, the damage.
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You have damage that All of that adds up to about estimated about $8 trillion a year.
31:12
I I I think that we're not going to make adequate progress probably on mitigation.
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I think we're going to go probably to something closer to 2 and 1/2 degrees, which has big impacts, not just on climate, on migration, on many things, political, geopolitical impacts.
31:29
And then uh but I think you're going to see money come for mitigation, uh in other words, to pay for it, to for the rebuilding and whatever, and and the damage.
31:40
But it They're big world issues because there's a north-south issue, as we talk about the rich-poor countries.
31:47
Many of the poor countries are around the equator, and it's going to be a big issue.
31:52
Yeah, I heard the latest statistic is a billion people migrating from south to north over the next decade to escape global warming.
31:58
We also agree that mitigation is hugely under-invested in.
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Obviously, at Giant Ventures, we believe that the climate tech investment opportunity is the investment opportunity of the decade.
32:08
So, to summarize, Ray, if I may be so bold, people should take a bird's-eye view of their lives, write down their principles, and adapt those principles as they as they hit the reality of existence and they go through their lives.
32:19
They should meditate to get to that level of abstraction and equanimity of thought that allows you to get that bird's-eye view and write down your principles.
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And then thirdly, they should be highly aware of the five forces that are shaping the economy and the society and the planet that we live on.
32:34
It's going to be be bit of a roller coaster over the next decade, but if you understand those five forces, not that you can predict the future, but you can at least have some understanding of what's shaping the present.
32:44
My last question to you, many people don't know that you're one of the eminent deep ocean explorers.
32:50
Can you tell me what led to your fascination with the oceans and what are your plans for OceanX?
32:54
Uh when I was growing up, I uh watched Jacques Cousteau on television.
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So, an explorer who put it on media, I learned to dive, I learned to dive.
33:02
I took my kids then diving.
33:04
We were We all loved diving.
33:09
Um and then uh when I uh had enough money, I was uh able to buy an ocean exploration ship.
33:18
It's not a yacht uh that was used for uh by scientists and I it seemed wow, great.
33:25
They would use it like it was very similar to Jacques Cousteau's and I could tag along.
33:30
And then I realized that um showing what he what we're doing in the media would be advantageous.
33:39
Uh Jim Cameron, the film producer and also the person He's got a passion for ocean exploration, said, "For God's sake, show it."
33:47
And and he would um decide to show it.
33:49
So, uh that I did that for 11 years um and then built another ship.
33:55
OceanX is the name of the initiative.
33:58
Go online if you're interested in these things, OceanX.
34:02
And so, we have a fantastic um research ship with laboratories, vehicles that go down 6,000 m, all sorts of things, DNA testing and so on.
34:11
And we will be showing it starting in September on um Disney and um uh National Geographic uh showing uh what these scientists and are doing on it.
34:25
And we also um have on social media, we we we post what we're doing because we want to uh inspire others and and the ocean is our greatest natural resource.
34:40
Uh counts for 2/3 of the world's surface and has more species in it than land does and is very very important.
34:49
And it's also very exciting.
34:51
When you go there, you see it you you're you know you're thrilled by it the species all that's being and imagine if continents were never discovered what you'd want to do.
35:02
This is twice the size of all continents combined. So, it's very exciting.
35:07
My son and I will be watching that show.
35:08
He's a big fan of Jacques Cousteau.
35:08
I've been reading him a few bedtime stories.
35:13
And I agree it's always struck me as a bit bizarre that we've been putting all this investment into space technologies and SpaceX and going to Mars and we don't even know 95% of the ocean and what's what exists down there.
35:25
Thank you so much for joining us today on the Giant Ideas podcast and sharing your giant ideas with the world.
35:30
I know the audience will have deeply enjoyed that as did I. So, thank you again. Thank you.