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5:00
We are in an undisclosed location, so we will be a little bit quieter with the intro, but uh it is Friday. >> Not to yell. >> Yes, it hurts.
5:11
We will be back in the Ultra Dome soon, don't worry.
5:13
But uh today we are still uh emotionally in the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital capital, >> and we need to kick it off with the level 100 performative tech bro final boss Peter Diamandis.
5:26
Are you familiar with Diamandis?
5:29
>> An absolute legend in the game. >> Yeah. Uh what is it? Singular university. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean he has a podcast.
5:36
He's he's done a number of businesses.
5:37
X-P Prize, I believe, Moonshot stuff.
5:37
Um but uh man, was he early to the Singularity game.
5:42
Yeah, >> like it's he was talking about that with the the Kerszswall era.
5:46
Um and uh but the whole reason he's getting called a performative tech bro final boss is because of course he is vibe coding on rep lit overlink flying himself up to the Bay Area.
5:58
The only thing he missed was sleeping on an an eightle >> sleeping on an eight sleep.
6:04
He should have had the eight sleep in there. >> Yeah.
6:06
>> And then he should have had infinite just printed out sort of >> had some type of uh homegrown like autonomous flying setup actually flying the plane.
6:15
>> He should have had a ramp card in display. >> That's right. >> Time is money. Save.
6:18
He's used corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, a whole lot more all in one place. Go to ramp. com. >> A lot more.
6:23
>> Um we are of course on the road.
6:23
We've been on the road a lot this week.
6:28
>> We hate being on the road.
6:29
>> It's not our favorite thing. It's very very rough.
6:31
We know it changed the show.
6:33
Hopefully we will uh get back in the swing of things and kind of bring you the show that you know and love.
6:37
Um but our best doing our best.
6:40
Uh of course this this stream is made possible right one live stream 30 plus destinations multiream and reach your audience wherever they are.
6:47
Uh and for our gracious hosts were able to loan us a uh a whiteboard where we were able to piece together exactly what's going on in tech.
6:55
We're going to take you through the stories today.
6:56
Open AI >> calling this out.
7:01
This is exactly someone's gonna spend the next uh trying to decipher three hours trying to put it together will understand the real nature of tech, how it all connected.
7:11
>> This is the current state of tech, right?
7:13
>> I like it because there are some connections there like Amazon Anthropic that red line is real. >> That's real.
7:19
The Hampton's and Pekk >> also real.
7:23
>> There's a connection there.
7:25
>> Uh well, Manitis, we'll leave it up to the viewer.
7:27
That's an exercise for the viewer to see how he's involved.
7:28
Uh we didn't get Figma on there.
7:30
We should have brought we should have been doing all this on a Fig Jam.
7:33
Uh you should go to figma. com.
7:35
Think bigger, build faster.
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Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. Get started for free.
7:39
So the actual big story is that OpenAI, the nonprofit, is going to control its for-profit arm and own equity valued at $100 billion.
7:48
I believe this will make it the most highly valued nonprofit or like the most profitable nonprofit in world history.
7:56
The best funded nonprofit, right?
7:57
Uh, and it is remarkable to think about what that will be like.
8:02
People have kind of written off the nonprofit as like it's going away.
8:07
Like it is not going away.
8:07
Like it will continue to be back.
8:11
>> It's it's incredibly back uh funded forever essentially to do a ton of interesting things.
8:17
I think we're going to see interesting things about uh come out of that organization.
8:20
Uh but anyway, the news this is from the journal and we'll and we'll break this down, but Nick has it summarized here.
8:25
OpenAI LLC will be converted into a Delaware public benefit corporation.
8:31
OpenAI nonprofit retains control of the new public benefit corporation.
8:35
The nonprofit will hold 100 billion dollars plus of equity in the public benefit corporation.
8:40
The PBC structure enables raising large amounts of capital for the mission.
8:45
Um, which obviously they're already doing.
8:49
Uh, they're still aligned with ensuring AGI benefits all of humanity. That's good.
8:54
but also just aligned with like your shareholders.
8:56
Like if you're just a normal CC Corp, I know they're a public benefit corporation, but if you're just a normal CC Corp, like shareholders are humans.
9:02
Let's make sure it benefits the shareholders that will by definition benefit humanity, but specifically they're saying all of humanity, even if you're not a shareholder, AGI should still benefit you, which is a noble cause.
9:13
Um, OpenAI and Microsoft signed a non-binding uh for the next phase of the partnership.
9:19
A definitive agreement is still being negotiated.
9:20
OpenAI says it's engaging and Delaware.
9:23
>> As it stands, Microsoft gets 20% of OpenAI's revenue >> for the big man.
9:29
Something like >> big man.
9:30
Satia, something like that.
9:30
Uh, which I it felt like a stretch to me that that that would be sustainable given the uh looming costs that uh OpenAI needs to incur.
9:41
Obviously, they're ramping revenue really quickly. Yeah.
9:45
>> But you have Broadcom to pay, you have Oracle to pay, you have all these.
9:48
But it is tied to revenue, you know.
9:50
It's not the same as being like crazy. Yeah. It's not fixed. Exactly.
9:55
Um but bill but still it's a lot of you know the the there's these companies are under margin pressure already >> and and wasn't the original deal that it would it would be 20% up until they paid hundred billion or something like that.
10:11
There was something where like it eventually ran its course.
10:12
I believe it had an ending and I think that's what's justifying a lot of the underwriting because the lesson from Google, the lesson from Facebook, the lesson from uh you know Microsoft and the rest of the hyperscalers was that >> you needed your DCF models to be 20 or 30 years into the future, right?
10:31
And so if you just if you if you didn't take into account the third decade of growth, you were undervaluing.
10:42
>> Was originally reported 20% through 2030.
10:45
>> Okay, >> which still is.
10:46
>> I don't think a lot of investors are scared by thinking about value in 2035.
10:51
I think they're fine with that now.
10:51
I think they're saying like, "Yeah, I have a 10-year fund and realistically all the best venture investments, SpaceX, still hanging out in the portfolio 20 years later.
11:00
They got continuation funds."
11:00
I think that a lot of investors are actually fine to say, "Yeah, this company's going to be like, you know, maybe a financial mess for 10 years, but if I'm super confident it's going to be a money printing machine in 20, I'll do the deal all day." >> Yeah.
11:16
>> I think that's >> still It's still insane to think that the deal ever got done in the first place. >> A Microsoft deal. >> Yeah.
11:23
If you were if if if you talked to a founder and they were like, "Yeah, I was running a fund raise and like, you know, ended up taking this deal.
11:29
I got the valuation I wanted, but ultimately it gave up 20% of revenue off the top, too.
11:35
So, not 20% of like profits, but like a 20% tax on gross revenue. >> Yeah.
11:42
>> Uh just for the just till 2030. >> Yeah, that would be.
11:46
>> And and the founder's like, well, it doesn't matter that much cuz I'm in this for like 20 years.
11:48
You're >> most most get the pass on that. >> Yeah.
11:52
Very few businesses, very few businesses in the world, especially like highly competitive, you know, categories, >> uh, can sustain a 20% tax off the top. >> Yep.
12:03
>> Um, and still really produce any profits or be functioning at all.
12:06
But obviously, >> I'll push you off.
12:08
What if your what if your business is uh mobile games in the app store?
12:14
>> You've effectively been paying Apple 20% 30% tax off the top >> for sure.
12:19
There's a bunch of examples like Nvidia could do this too, right?
12:23
And they sort of are through through this kind of deal. >> I I don't know.
12:25
I I I mean I agree with you like it is it is a crazy crazy deal.
12:30
Unprecedented in a million ways, but everything about the entire OpenAI story is unprecedented unprecedented to start as a nonprofit.
12:36
Unprecedented to have who are the co-founders?
12:38
Elon Musk, Peter Teal, like you have like seven different co-founders who have uh bunch of co-founders have gone off and start direct competitors.
12:45
That doesn't happen very often.
12:46
Usually people are like, "I got bags in the category.
12:48
I'm gonna go work on something else."
12:50
Yeah, there's a bunch of weird stuff.
12:52
Anyway, speaking of the the nature of the of the industry and all the competitors, Sergey uh has a bit of a joke post here saying, "Dario, Claude will take your job, but it will feel ashamed."
13:03
Elon, look at this anime girl.
13:06
She says the n-word and is almost naked.
13:08
Zuck, super intelligence will help people watch more Instagram reels.
13:12
Dennis, Gemini recently calculated more precisely the motion of the heavens.
13:14
Sam excited to open to announce that OpenAI Inc.
13:19
has entered into a definitive agreement with OpenAI LP and OAI Corporation and has signed with OpenAI Opco LLC and OpenAI Global LLC.
13:31
>> It really sums up uh it really sums up and Sergey >> they're all cooking.
13:35
>> Yeah, they are all cooking and they're all telling like slightly different stories.
13:38
Um Sergey, these are all real corporate entities by the way.
13:40
And it's yeah, it's worth noting it feels like SATA has definitely slowplayed the renegotiation of this deal.
13:47
Like this has been they've been trying to make this happen for a long time.
13:51
It was reported a while back that Satia wasn't wasn't budging.
13:56
But it's good to see that the company's able to >> So here's Rohan Paul on what's actually happening with this OpenAI and Microsoft uh deal.
14:05
Uh, Microsoft and OpenAI struck a truce to extend their partnership, clearing a major obstacle to OpenAI shift into a for-profit structure.
14:11
The new agreement is non-binding right now, but it sets the final stage for a final terms to be hammered out soon.
14:17
In the proposed setup, Microsoft and the OpenAI nonprofit would each start with about 30% of the new company with the rest going to employees and investors.
14:24
The new company is the for-profit entity OpenAI is trying to create as part of its restructuring.
14:30
Open a plans to keep nonprofit control and give that nonprofit an endowment stake valued at a hundred billion dollars. Wow.
14:36
Which would be huge on paper, but the timeline to turn it into usable grants is unclear.
14:42
Although with the secondary markets, you you imagine that that has to be like they're going to make payroll next quarter.
14:47
Like they'd be able to sell some uh hundred billion dollars and and do a whole bunch of grants.
14:51
Um, California and Delaware attorneys are generally reviewing the plan and OpenAI has told its investors it aims to finish the restructure by the end of the year or risk losing its 19 billion in funding.
15:03
Um, it's very funny that like for all this drama, all the books that will be written, the movies, like the end results, like okay, there's like three parties around the table. How about we go equal?
15:11
Like Microsoft gets a third, nonprofit gets a third, employees investors gets a third.
15:17
investors gets a third. There's really like three key counterparties in the deal and they're it seems like if this is what happens they kind of just all walked away being like >> yeah three three key part parties on the on the effectively on the cap table but then you also have the California being like hey don't mess this conversion up you know you you're a nonprofit
15:40
California >> uh and Delaware attorneys uh >> uh general are reviewing the plan and OpenAI has told its investors it aimed I'm talking about like the the end result of like who gets what in the like there's a bunch of poker chips on the table right now and there's a bunch bunch of there's parties around there that all need to agree before anything moved forward, right? >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
16:00
>> And it's just interesting that like what they wound up with was like let's go equal like let's split it equally. >> Yeah.
16:07
If you play this out what happens what is the what >> what do you think the nonprofit looks like 10 years from now?
16:14
OpenAI continues to execute very well, becomes a multi-t trillion dollar, you know, tech giant. >> Yep.
16:22
>> And you have a third of the company owned by this nonprofit.
16:24
What do you think happen, buddy?
16:28
>> How would you how would you allocate >> what what happens when you get a ton of missionary AI genius scientists who don't want to optimize for profits.
16:38
They're just experimenting, working on whatever ideas they want.
16:40
There's no pressure because they don't have a user base.
16:44
They don't have an app store.
16:44
or they're not competing with anyone.
16:45
They just get to go do pure research.
16:47
What do you think will happen?
16:50
>> So, they're going to create >> a banger consumer app will happen for sure.
16:54
>> Nonprofit is going to launch another company and it's going to convert to for-profit again. >> Well, I don't know.
16:58
I mean, you could you could you could >> last time >> the question is like, okay, what is the real relationship between the nonprofit and and OpenAI like the the private, you know, for-profit arm? >> Yeah.
17:12
Because there's a world where they're just like, "Okay, we're just going to keep a lot of research and R&D happening at the nonprofit layer." >> Yeah.
17:19
>> And then like try to just be the ones that >> commercialize every time.
17:21
Even though you would have to argue if it's like this >> I don't know. >> Yeah.
17:26
>> I think I think over time like the two entities will actually separate and drift apart.
17:32
>> It's hard to drift apart when we're you know they're sitting on on uh >> 30% of the cap table. >> Yeah. >> I don't know. That's not that crazy.
17:39
Like there are VC funds that own 30% of a company when it goes public and >> well yeah they'll drift a >> like the VC fund is like off doing other stuff right investing in competitors sometimes like just kind of looking for the next thing getting out of the
17:54
position slowly >> right is selling into the public markets so I don't know um of course I'm kind of joking and it's like a little bit of a hot take to think that like there will be something but truly like like if you if you want the okay another interesting twist is
18:10
Right now there is a there is a war for talent in AI and there's a war for for specifically for missionary talent right the true believers the folks who are just going to go grind and and explore and not beho not be beholden to you know optimizing the like next quarter's ma
18:30
right so if you're open AI and you don't want your direct competitors telling that story hey we're missionary AI lab uh creating a talent vacuum for that type of that type of that archetype of researcher with a nonprofit saying, "Oh, oh yeah, well, like we're a nonprofit. Like you can do whatever you want. Uh
18:50
Like you can do whatever you want.
18:50
Uh you can just do research and we'll match the salary that Anthropic is paying you or or oh, Zach made an offer.
18:56
Yeah, we'll match it just for you to come and hang out here." >> Yeah.
19:00
Can they give those researchers exposure to the private company shares?
19:05
the followers >> just being like, "Yeah, all of our directors at the nonprofit like they get paid out a bonus based on, you know, there's there's plenty of histories of nonprofits being abused, right?
19:14
Like nonprofit >> people get paid like high salaries usually like stock in a different company.
19:21
>> Well, yeah, but it it could just be like, you know, every year uh the stock appreciates >> some amount and they sell off a position to be able to pay.
19:30
>> You would assume that they that they're selling down the position and paying cash.
19:33
cash. such such a strange position extreme extreme and um this is why when I talk to founders that are >> like uh I think more and more people have kind of like standardized around just like start your company on stripe atlas >> don't try to reaw yeah Delaware corp on
19:52
stripe >> post Elon like make sure you have me like that has not made its way down to startups yeah >> most startups are just >> secret but every I And I have I have a a friend of mine that I grew up with that that had a breakout consumer product. >> He botched the cap table, didn't set up
20:09
>> He botched the cap table, didn't set up vesting, and it ended up costing him like millions of dollars.
20:15
He would effectively be retired in his 30s if he had not if he had done this correctly.
20:21
>> And that's why it's like it's so key to get the foundation, the legal structure of a company set up properly.
20:25
And so the fact that you had Peter Teal, Elon Musk, Sam Alman, they all set up this this entity and and uh in the fullness of time, it's like they botched it, right?
20:37
Like it it was uh it was a maybe a good idea at the time to try to create a nonprofit for AI research, but um uh just got kind of messier and messier and messier and messier and messier.
20:48
And uh every single, you know, person involved is probably thinking, I wish we just set it up as a >> Yeah.
20:55
as a C corp from the beginning.
20:58
>> Yeah, completely agree. Good take.
20:58
The Yeah, this idea of like, you know, you like the folks who are on the founding team are not dumb.
21:05
They're like the smartest people in Silicon Valley basically.
21:08
Um, >> so maybe they were like overthinking it or like too smart and being like, let's create an even more complex structure.
21:14
The other the flip side of like the steel man on like what happened is if you play it back and you go back to like 2015 you say like okay uh >> yeah they they raised they raised a lot of money and at the time AI was maybe too like there there wasn't an immediate commercial opportunity and so it's very possible they wouldn't have been able to
21:34
raise like >> the thing that they got I think they might have been able to raise the money but then my question is like what happens in like 2017 when your share price is kind of stagnating, you still haven't made revenue and every and the meme in Silicon Valley is like, "Oh yeah, like Sam raised a mega round pre-product market fit. Like that company's not
21:56
Like that company's not really doing anything.
21:58
When are they going to ship?" Right?
21:59
Instead, it was just like, "Oh yeah, like they have a research organization and they're like continuing to do cool like little projects here and there and like oh they got the they got a they got a robotic arm to solve a Rubik's cube or like oh they won at chess or Dota or like whatever they did.
22:12
Um, and so I bet I bet the vibes were better throughout that.
22:16
It's really hard for CC Corp to to keep because everyone's looking for a decade when you're flat >> and then it's like Yeah. Yeah.
22:23
I mean, we've seen this with so many other companies that have raised hundreds of millions of dollars pre-product launch and it's really hard to get out finally. So, I don't know.
22:32
The counterfactual is fascinating.
22:34
I wonder if it would have how how it would have played out. It's tricky. >> Yeah.
22:38
Anyway, >> yeah, it's just interesting that almost every person around the table probably feels like they would have benefited from a more simple traditional structure. >> I think you're right. Yeah.
22:47
And I think Sam's even said that that like yeah, we kind of overthought this one and like it would have been better just to come in clean.
22:53
Um but you know, it worked out anyway more or less and like we we we got the product.
22:58
Honestly, OpenAI is the best example of like if you have true product market fit, you can botch so many things and still be wildly successful. >> Great tech.
23:08
Um anyway, automate compliance, manage risk, and prove trust continuously vivid with Vanta. Vanta. com.
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23:22
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23:26
>> Duolingo, Snowflake, Intercom, GitHub, RAMP, all of our favorites.
23:31
>> Um, so I think we covered most of this.
23:34
We can go through a little bit of the Wall Street Journal's coverage.
23:35
Um, the the Prime uh I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly.
23:41
Uh, is is putting uh Daario from anthropics uh claims about AI progress in the truth zone.
23:47
progress in the truth zone. said these we are 28 months into 6 months from AI taking your jobs 4 months into 24 months until cursor is obsolete and 6 months into 6 months until AI writes 90% of your code part two the codening so exactly 6 months ago this is the report from futurism the CEO of anthropics said that in six months AI
24:13
would be writing 90% of code and there and so I think people when he when Dario said this people interpret it as uh okay well 90% of the software engineering jobs are going away and that certainly hasn't happened I mean we're not seeing like fantastic job numbers broadly in the economy there are like rumblings about software engineers not getting
24:33
hired as fast as they should struggling >> new grads struggling but I mean we're talking about like like what a few percentage points if anything certainly not 90% of software engineers are out of a job yeah >> but simultaneously we're seeing folks like Brian Armstrong at Coinbase highlight that what is it 40% of their code is written by AI now there's a lot
24:53
more code being written that count >> there are great companies >> that are internally not focused on hiring new people >> yes >> and yet they're still ramping revenue right we talked about this we talked about this right >> headcount >> yep >> uh with Palunteer headcount is like relatively flat but revenue is way up >> people >> uh um uh CLA, right? Headcount is way
25:16
Headcount is way down, revenue is way up, >> couple thousand people.
25:22
>> Um and so you have these companies that are doing well, growing really fast, and then not needing to add a lot of people.
25:29
>> Um you know, you could just make an argument that that's like willpower, right?
25:33
Or the other side of it is like, you know, they're getting new efficiency.
25:36
Um, and uh, yeah, there there's it's an interesting it's hard to tell what what's driven by increased efficiency due to AI >> versus just CEOs deciding like we're all going to do more. Yeah.
25:50
>> And you don't I'm not giving you we're not giving you budget to like >> for this new product you want to launch, >> have two people launch it.
25:57
>> We're not going to give you, you know, 20 people and and you know, some massive >> Yeah, it is.
26:01
It is like if you had told me like artificial AGI is real.
26:04
will pass the touring test.
26:07
AI will be able to write code at the level of a mid-tier software engineer.
26:12
Maybe not total top tier software engineer, but like one shot and and billions.
26:17
Yeah, you'll one shot of a calendar app and billions of dollars will be spent on this like every month.
26:23
Uh I would have said like okay well like I would expect that like my my the app from United Airlines is less buggy and like I haven't experienced that.
26:32
I haven't I haven't been like walking around the internet using different websites and tooling and being like oh wow they did a complete rewrite on this.
26:39
It's so much faster or like oh wow there's no bugs in this thing or that thing.
26:42
It's like it's still very incremental like we really do have a lot more software to write cuz I do believe that the code's being written and like the product like internally every company is writing more code and doing more things but the amount of work to actually improve your experience is crazy.
26:57
There's a lot of CEOs and CTOs and engineers that have come out and said 90% of my code is written by AI, but they're they're still like it's not like they suddenly only need to work for an hour a day, right?
27:13
>> It's not like the whole if not more.
27:17
>> Yeah, we just need to do more. >> Yep. Totally. Totally.
27:18
Uh well, if you're writing a lot of code with AI, you need code review for the age of AI. Get graphite. dev.
27:23
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27:27
teams like Ramp, Figma, Asana, Cursor, Shopify.
27:30
Speaking of like more, >> we have a post from Ara Carzian came on the show earlier this week.
27:35
Um, he has the data on GPT5.
27:37
He says, "GPT5 was good actually after a launch that led that led Sam Alman to apologize.
27:43
The latest ramp data shows OpenAI is growing business adoption faster than any other model company tracked by RAM AI index."
27:54
Uh it's also not just tech tech manufacturing is adopting AI faster than any other sector and it's why the consensus figures on AI adoption are probably wrong or the census figures which we talked about with ARA.
28:03
Um and he says read read his full analysis on Substack. You can go to eonlab. substack.
28:10
com to subscribe to Ara Karaz Karazzian and you should of course go to tbpn. substack.
28:15
com and subscribe to our newsletter.
28:17
So um the ramp AI index the model adoption rate the share of US businesses with paid subscriptions to AI models jumped significantly in what is it uh this is probably March was OpenAI's really crazy fast takeoff and then in July the data is up again.
28:39
is up again. It it this doesn't read purely as um this this reads more as like people understanding 03 and reasoning models um and starting to pay also just more monetization tiers probably more ways to pay maybe um but uh 44% of uh US businesses um now have paid subscriptions to AI models
29:06
platforms or tools across OpenAI anthropic and XAI Google and DeepSeek and uh the the Google number seems low since I would imagine that some of those Gemini subscriptions maybe get rolled into Google Apps like because Gemini just shows up in the Google Apps billing already. Um we'd have to talk to AR and
29:26
Um we'd have to talk to AR and dig in more but I mean it sure like the clearest piece of the data is that OpenAI's on an absolute tear here in the B2B context which is interesting. >> Yeah.
29:37
And and it's not like we're not seeing like, oh, GPT5 sucked, so it's falling off a cliff.
29:41
It's like, no, like the models are getting better.
29:43
Just like we talked about this with the iPhone, like if it was wor if it was worse, they probably wouldn't release it.
29:48
They just stick with the best.
29:51
>> But um >> anyway, um >> crazy.
29:56
>> This other Yeah, this is another pro uh chatbt's impact and open AI like I guess like I could put this loosely in the bold case, but read it.
30:03
So Isaac uh says, "I met someone this morning whose number one source of traffic is Chat GPT supplement brand and has figured out how to get chat GPT to recommend the brand whenever someone asks about a specific problem." Crazy. Uh that is crazy.
30:16
I feel like I'm surprised we haven't seen more of this, but it's just taken a while for >> not only Tragy to get adopted to the point where it's statistically significant, but then >> also people to figure out how to make it happen.
30:34
>> I mean, you the podcast boom firsthand and how long was it like podcasts had existed for years before we saw like AG1 become like the podcast supplement brand, right?
30:47
And and there were a few other brands where it was like this their whole growth strategy was unique. >> Do you remember them?
30:56
>> For sigmatic for sure. That's a great example.
30:58
>> Uh I yeah my friends uh my friends had a podcast and uh I was in college at the time.
31:04
They they were quite a bit older.
31:06
And when I met them, they had one sponsor, which was like some random coffee company that just like happened to the founder happened to be in the audience, just reached out was like, "Hey, let me like >> Hey.
31:18
So, so they they didn't they started the podcast without any real plans to monetize or anything like that." >> Yeah.
31:25
Um, and I at the time it still felt like I was late to podcasting because there was a bunch of podcasts that that >> I mean you could say the same thing about uh direct to consumer advertising on on uh on like meta platforms like the the formatic I heard do do we hear the numbers together?
31:42
Someone was talking and saying that uh so >> TC era was so crazy because it was like >> every you know a a number of brands realize like hey you can buy like really cheap really effective advertising >> on Instagram >> on Instagram and Meta Meta platforms broadly >> and then and that allows you to scale a number of brands. Yeah.
32:01
It was literally like if you had a decent product and you had funding you could like per you know scale >> overnight.
32:08
So many people realized that. Yeah.
32:11
So many people realized the opportunity and just flooded it and it just an auction.
32:14
So uh supply grew but demand you know for the ad inventory.
32:21
>> I think in the mushroom coffee category there are three or four different brands doing >> $und00 million plus in sales maybe like $300 million plus in sales.
32:29
Like there are some really really big >> Yeah. There's Mudwater.
32:33
>> Mudwater for Sigmatic.
32:33
There's a there's two others that I have heard of and and you just every time you hear Yeah.
32:38
went from it went from zero to $200 million in five years.
32:44
>> I I heard a crazy story about uh a somebody interning at one of the mushroom coffee companies. >> Mhm.
32:51
>> Uh leaving starting getting and and out and generate this company was already at a nine figure revenue mark.
32:57
The intern left and started another one and then outgrew the original one. >> That's insane. >> Yeah.
33:04
>> Uh yeah, a lot of financial I I I I do wonder what those companies look like in 5 10 years.
33:08
I mean, we've seen uh when we talked to the Ridge guys like um like topline growth is not the end all be all of DTOC success.
33:16
Like you have to generate cash flow matters and this takes time.
33:21
And so when you hear one of those like crazy revenue ramps, especially in DTOC, you should always ask this even in AI.
33:26
But in D TOC, you really need to understand, okay, is there is this just the founders good at fundraising and they're losing money on every transaction and they're just going to keep this flywheel grow going because they've figured out how to make their revenue steeper than everyone else and so they keep getting funded or is there something really special about the >> laugh um >> something about unprofitable SAS? >> Mhm.
33:52
>> I mean it's it's like how are you going to sell software and lose money?
33:54
It's funny, but like selling physical goods, it's like, wait, you sold this mattress.
34:01
It cost you money to sell this matt to make and sell this mattress.
34:05
>> And obviously there's plenty of cases of of great companies that that were deeply, you know, unprofitable for for a long time, but something about DTOC companies, you know, running running in the red uh massively. Yeah.
34:15
It's like, come on, you should, you know, at least uh >> I mean, it's like lemonade stand stuff.
34:22
It's like as a kid you learn like buy the lemons, buy the sugar, get the pitcher, and then add it all up, multiply it by two, that's how much you're charging.
34:31
It's like costbased pricing is like, you know, the most instinctual economic force in the world that like a child can understand.
34:38
Um, >> and yet we justify all these different things.
34:42
And sometimes it makes sense.
34:43
Sometimes it does make sense to lose money on SAS for a little bit if you're building a, you know, some sort of network, some sort of locked in thing, uh, some sort of high margin opportunity down the road.
34:54
>> Um, anyway, if you're growing your business, you need to analyze some data, get on Julius, what analysis do you want to run, chat with your data, and get expert level insights in seconds.
35:03
They're loved by two million users and trusted individuals at Princeton, BCG, and Zapier.
35:09
Equally important, we need to talk about profound in the context of chat GPT traffic.
35:15
>> I would not be surprised if the company that Isaac is talking about here uh that's getting all of their traffic from chatgpt is using profound >> profound. com. It's in the back. >> There you go.
35:25
I put it up on the >> reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover your products and brands.
35:31
Get your brand man mentioned in chat. >> Yeah.
35:33
Whether you're doing whether it's consumer product that you're selling or enterprise software, >> you need to get >> I think we kind of like we we kind of took the conversation in like a uh an almost like negative situation talking about like the long-term durability of these businesses, but uh I mean really this is crazy because it's organic.
35:50
It's like uh SEO is sort of like faded in terms of of importance and relevancy.
35:59
Like if you can if you can be the first brand to go and find the the correct strategy on Instagram and dominate like that's that's such a huge advantage.
36:06
And it's the same thing with like how did Airbnb get to scale quickly? Old school SEO, right?
36:13
They just had landing pages for every single uh you know rental homes in Tulsa, right?
36:18
And when you Google it, you go really good at SEO.
36:21
Uh there's a whole bunch of other Drew Hston at at Dropbox.
36:26
He was like, "We we copy pasted the entire like web 2.
36:32
0 growth handbook which was like give 10 get 10 PayPal model of like you know incentivebased viral growth."
36:39
And with Dropbox it'd be like I give you five gigs of storage, I get five gigs of storage.
36:45
Um we add it all up and it just went super viral.
36:48
and they uh he said something like all of the uh all of the viral like the viral growth it's like you can go way deeper with that metaphor.
37:00
Uh which is basically like as an internet SAS company you need to be sneezing on as many people as possible which I think is hilarious.
37:08
So he's like he's like you know to get the viral coefficient up you need to be sneezing a lot and not washing your hands.
37:14
What does that mean in the Dropbox context?
37:17
Well, it means when any so whenever someone clicks a Dropbox link, there's a little prompt.
37:22
Hey, do you want to sign up? Hey, put your email.
37:24
Let's just grab your email before you view this PDF. Oh. Oh, hello Sign. Yeah, we acquired them. Let's bring them in.
37:29
And oh, if you want to sign a document, like set up a Dropbox account, right?
37:32
It's like these are sneezing all over the internet is what he like referred to it as.
37:36
I thought it was brilliant. >> Yeah. Yeah.
37:38
Angelist has has done this well with with uh their roll-up vehicle product, right?
37:43
Every time every time you know somebody gets invited to a rollup vehicle, they create an Angelist account, they may maybe make their first investment and Angelist can say like, "Hey, do you want to invest in this fund? Do you want to do this? You want to do that?"
37:54
So >> um do you want to read through this journal article at all?
37:57
Do you think we covered it?
37:59
>> I think we covered most of this.
37:59
Um basically the the journal's asking uh about OpenAI's funding challenges.
38:05
We ran through this um yesterday and basically my conclusion was uh $300 billion to Oracle is a staggering amount of money but it does it is in line with what it takes to build um all the data center capacity for an Amazon.
38:22
com a Facebook and Instagram like meta platforms internal a Google.
38:26
com not the cloud businesses um and so I can see I can imagine the spreadsheet that that that they that they used to develop the model.
38:40
The question is, will the growth continue?
38:41
I think they're on a fantastic growth curve.
38:43
It feels like this will um that they will wind up paying a lot of this and that and that's certainly what the market's pricing in based on the the the the pop in the Oracle stock.
38:52
Uh it's not like Wall Street looked at the the Oracle backlog and was like, "Oh, that's fake. This is bearish.
39:00
We need to sell the stock."
39:02
No, they were like, "Yeah, that money's coming in.
39:04
300 billion's coming in over the next over the next half decade or something.
39:07
So like let's set >> I think that was I think I think you can I think you can think that it may not materialize but still think it's a good investment in the short term. >> Sure.
39:19
But I mean they missed Yeah. Yeah.
39:22
But purely momentum >> maybe that's I think that's kind of odd.
39:27
It's kind of like a circular logic.
39:27
Um because I mean then you get into like you could say that about like anything like like Yeah.
39:34
Well like they they >> Yeah.
39:36
I would say like a bunch of people a bunch of people are like wow >> Oracle is going to generate hundreds of billions of revenue from AI.
39:41
I want to own this stock.
39:44
And then I'm just saying there's a category of people that are going to say like okay this stock's going to run.
39:49
Yeah, >> at least in the short term, but maybe it's 1999 and and uh you know, we're we're we're going to see some type of, you know, correction here.
39:58
So, >> we will we will find out. We'll see.
40:00
I mean, we'll we'll probably have more data on I mean, as soon as Oracle's next quarter prints, we'll see exactly how much they're pulling down, exactly how much they're building.
40:10
Um OpenAI in the last in the last nine months has committed to spend around $60 billion a year for computing from Oracle.
40:16
year for computing from Oracle. And this will really I mean if this pencils out like this will drive a radical transformation in Oracle's business like you we saw the the chart in the journal where their core business like everything that they've built up so far is basically expected to decline over
40:33
the next 5 years as they switch to pure cloud computing like they want to be a hyperscaler O >> Eric newcomer this morning said seeing a 48-year-old database company suddenly grow by more than the size of Salesforce over the course of a trading day is one of those occurrences is that makes you wonder about the moment we're in. >> It's at once incredible, uncanny, and
40:50
>> It's at once incredible, uncanny, and terrifying, like your grandfather during a family reunion gathering everyone around, tossing off his walker, and doing parkour.
41:00
Um, uh, good, uh, very, very funny.
41:02
But, um, uh, Eric, Eric Newcomer, uh, also was bearish on he was bearish on OpenAI at around 30 or at least like very skeptical.
41:16
Yeah, maybe a year or two ago he wrote kind of the bare case, >> but I think this is a very very fair uh >> yeah, uh OpenAI loses billions of dollars a year and has told investors it is on pace to make 13 billion in revenue this year according to a person familiar with the matter.
41:32
Uh less than three years since the launch of CHAPT, OpenAI is tying its fate to a belief that companies and consumers will increase their spending on artificial intelligence at explosive rates for years to come.
41:43
Uh, and I do I do wonder like like you have to believe in the agent commerce story to uh to to really see another like 10x in revenue.
41:55
How do they get to a I mean the pro the projection that people are underrating open ad I believe is 200 billion in revenue in like 2030.
42:04
And and it's hard to imagine like am I going to pay $2,000? >> It's hard to exist.
42:11
>> Is everyone going to pay my sound? Would I pay?
42:13
Yeah, >> I wanna I want to hit the air horn so bad. Yeah.
42:17
Uh yeah, I I I think users got users.
42:20
You can't get them all on $20 and $200 a month plans.
42:24
Maybe the >> example that I always give is like the average American if they don't have a show they like on your streaming platform, they will just cancel it. >> Yeah. Yeah.
42:33
Like I mean >> like they're like sorry people that just haven't upgraded, haven't I mean people are just starting to experience like the reasoning models. Um, I don't know.
42:41
Like I I if the if the if the paid plans stick around, like it could be they could get a lot more people to convert.
42:51
Um, especially if it's if it goes through your business, if you're expensing it.
42:53
Um, if like you know how how much how much how much money is spent on like email sub subscriptions across >> Yeah, it'll be interesting.
43:02
An interesting pump is like do you think that Netflix or >> uh OpenAI will have more subscription revenue in 2030? >> I say OpenAI by mile. >> Yeah.
43:15
And you think that's because people will pay to have this like all powerful assistant that can >> Yeah.
43:21
I mean I guess I the only the only question is just like is there a better way to monetize?
43:26
Like, can you get $20 or $200 of value out of someone by just handling their purchases and just doing the agent of commerce thing?
43:33
And you're not OpenAI is not uh OpenAI is completely aware that they're driving a ton of economic activity, right? Supplement company.
43:42
They're like, I'm so happy that you're making millions of dollars from our product. >> Yeah, exactly.
43:48
>> How exactly did you >> Yeah.
43:50
Like I'd like you want to keep this relationship going. Let's get it cut.
43:54
>> And that's super valuable.
43:54
That's what that's how that's how Meta generates so much money and Google too.
43:58
Uh the scale of like internet commerce and taking a cut of all of internet commerce is extremely extremely uh it's just an extremely huge pool of capital to draw from.
44:10
It's a huge it's a massive Thanksgiving plate to eat off of, right?
44:14
Um and so OpenAI deals that came to light in the past week have added up have added more than $400 billion to the market value of two companies.
44:21
chip designer Broadcom and cloud provider Oracle.
44:25
They also put Oracle chairman Larry Ellison in striking distance of becoming the world's richest person.
44:29
Uh Oracle's stock market value jumped over $240 billion on Wednesday after the company revealed a giant backlog of computing orders.
44:39
Uh most of that is derived from a roughly 300 billion 5-year computing deal with OpenAI.
44:44
Well, if you are generating media, you got to go to fall.
44:49
ai AI generative media platform for developers.
44:52
The world's first the world's best generative image, video, and audio models all in one place.
44:59
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45:04
Don't get caught writing a $300 billion check to Larry Ellison. Just go to fall. >> Not today.
45:10
>> Adobe, Shopify, Canva, Kora, and many more are on and you should be there, too.
45:18
Um, >> did we want to tap through this?
45:19
Uh, DD was highlighting >> Apple story.
45:22
It >> It's so crazy to look back at these like incredibly strategic acquisitions from from, you know, ago, >> couple two two decades 2008.
45:31
So in 2008, Apple acquired PaloAlto semi. Fantastic name.
45:38
Really ahead of the curve.
45:38
If anything, if anything, they were they they created the trend.
45:43
>> Semiconductor company. Really? Yeah.
45:43
the silicon company of PaloAlto.
45:47
>> What's funny is there's there's also Palo Alto networks and so I wonder if PaloAlto semi was directly inspired like oh well like we're in Palo Alto and we're doing something similar.
45:55
Anyway, you want >> I actually like this formatting of just PaloAlto semi PaloAlto Network more than the blank of blank.
46:05
>> So you' just be New York browsers.
46:05
The New York >> browsers.
46:08
It sounds like a sports team.
46:10
The Palo Alto semiconductors. The Palo Alto Networks.
46:13
Yeah, the PaloAlto Network sounds too.
46:16
>> We should just rename our CC Corp to Hollywood Content Inc.
46:21
>> But anyways, anyway, what they >> uh Dee says, "Few people know about Apple's acquisition of Palo Alto semi in 2008.
46:26
Arguably the highest ROI acquisition in tech history.
46:28
The $270 million price for $150 engineers laid the foundation for all the Apple silicon chips you see today that have generated over 500 billion in value to Apple.
46:41
Uh uh and anyways he's highlighting an article uh from 2008.
46:44
An Apple spokesman said Apple has agreed to buy boutique microprocessor design company called PA Semi.
46:52
The company which is known for its design of sophisticated low power chips could spell a new feature for Apple's flagship iPhone and possibly iPod products as well. Um >> that is crazy.
47:02
the these kind of acquisitions have created the set of circumstances that allow CEOs to justify these like un like absolutely insane um cuz when you get an acquisition right the the return is is can be as good as a as a you know seed to unicorn you know venture investment. Yep.
47:22
>> And so but when you think about like the Instagram acquisition, the YouTube acquisition uh PaloAlto semi right these were >> bit different.
47:29
I I just feel like there is an alternative scenario where they don't they don't buy PA semi.
47:34
Instead, they're just like poaching and and hiring 150 people and it takes them like three years to get there, but they eventually wind up doing it.
47:44
But maybe there's like important IP. I don't know.
47:49
I wonder what do you think $278 million is in today's startup economy?
47:54
Like if you go back to 2008, $278 million feels like a blockbuster acquisition to me. This is Instagram. That's what I'm saying. Yeah.
48:06
>> Oh, but but is that is that a 10 million $10 billion acquisition, $2 billion acquisition? Like >> Yeah.
48:12
It's funny that like M&A has like actually outstripped like inflation. >> Well, 100%.
48:17
When you look at Scale AI, right, is a 20 almost $20 billion deal um >> for half the company. >> Yeah.
48:24
And so I so I wonder like we have we really had a 100x increase in in valuations basically.
48:31
Um this makes me want to go dig into Apple's recent acquisitions because remember on the earnings call Tim Cook said, "Hey, yeah, we're actually acquiring a company like every few weeks.
48:41
Like we've done basically one a month this entire year." >> Yeah.
48:46
>> And everyone's been like, "Oh, it's boring. Like who cares?"
48:48
like like these they're not doing they don't they're not buying anthropic or they're not buying perplexity for 10 billion.
48:54
Um but if they have PA semi in the in the portfolio right now and we just haven't clocked it like that's going to be amazing. Yeah.
49:03
So biggest M&A I'm on on uh Gemini biggest M&A >> uh of the uh >> 2008 >> 2008 was HP acquires electronic data systems was the biggest >> $13 billion deal >> like a huge merger of M companies >> Oracle acquires BEA systems uh which was a business software company I'm not familiar with but I love business software 6.
49:28
7 billion uh Google acquired Doubleclick for 3.
49:31
1 billion >> that was huge acquisition. Yeah, that's amazing.
49:36
>> Which in hindsight like you know >> it became the background of >> incredible acquisitions. >> Yeah.
49:42
>> Um and uh business objects was acquired by SAP.
49:47
>> I like business objects. That's a good name. >> No make. >> Yeah.
49:50
>> It's like we don't know how to name companies like this anymore. >> Objects. That's so good.
49:55
>> So >> the business company >> there was yeah a ton of like multi-billion dollar M&A that year.
49:59
But it does feel like if Apple were to acquire make a super strategic acquisition today, I mean they were who knows how real like the Perplexity rumors were, right?
50:10
They were, you know, Apple was under pressure to make an AI acquisition, but it didn't feel like Apple would ever get to the point where they would buy Perplexity for 18 billion or whatever they wanted out of it.
50:23
>> Odd for it was like when you buy an application layer company, they really don't buy a lot of applications.
50:26
I mean, they bought Shazam, I believe, but uh a lot of times they're what they're buying are these underlying hardcore teams that are going to create the foundation of the next hardware wave for them.
50:39
Um like in the leadup to the vision pro, they acquired I mean, you know, you know, someone who sold a company to them that went into their VR portfolio, correct?
50:49
like uh like that is the Apple playbook is we have a vision we're going to do VR or or augmented reality in a decade or we're going to do car or we're going to do custom silicon and so let's start hiring acquiring little little investments here and there here and there and here and there.
51:07
They're not just going to go out and be like we're trying to buy Whimo or like we're trying to buy the the the best asset.
51:11
They're kind of the opposite of like >> Beats when they bought Beats for.
51:14
3 billion, Beats was doing >> like 1.
51:20
4 billion of revenue over the trailing 12 months. So, exactly.
51:22
Again, it was a very, you know, running semi acquisition DD has the story.
51:28
uh PSM special specialized in power efficient chips with power PC chips that uh delivered 300% more performance per watt than Intel Xeon at the time which I believe was their server chip.
51:41
Um founded by the late Dan Doberpl uh DEEC Alpha and Strongarm Legend uh in 2003.
51:51
The team had expertise in low power architecture that Intel couldn't match.
51:54
The acquisition gave Apple the dream team that would create the A4 chip in 2010, launching Apple silicon dominance.
52:01
Key engineers like Jim Keller, G.
52:03
Williams III, and Johnny Suji uh architected the A series that powers two plus billion devices today, crushing Qualcomm's monopoly.
52:11
Uh this philosophy evolved into the M1's 20 plus hour battery life that's powering this laptop right here.
52:19
Loads of >> You get 20 hours out of that bad boy?
52:22
>> I'm plugged in right now.
52:22
I'm not risking it while we're on the stream, but I I think we could maybe get 20 20 hours if I was, you know, low low dim uh screen brightness and maybe not connected to the Wi-Fi and maybe just in a text editor with the dark background the whole time. Um, and it also had a 3.
52:38
5x faster performance than Intel at oneird the power.
52:41
The M line of chips today powers Macs, iPads, and Vision Pro.
52:45
Um, without PA Semi, there may never have been an iPhone processor independence. iPad dominance. No, Apple Silicon Max.
52:52
Uh, the small investment, a series A A round, a series B round today has generated 500 plus billion in value.
52:59
Strategic acquisitions like this can make the break make or break the future of a business. And if you what else?
53:09
Turbo Puffer, it's on the skits. >> We puffing. >> We're puffing. Search everybody.
53:15
Serverless vector and full text search.
53:17
Built from first principles on object storage.
53:18
fast, 10x cheaper, and extreme extremely scalable.
53:23
>> Pretty much used by every >> company we've been able to find.
53:26
There's a bunch of logos that they have that are absolutely crazy that they don't even they're not even listing on the website.
53:33
So, a lot uh more to come from uh Turbopuffer in the near future, but for now, >> get on it.
53:39
Uh did you want to go through this post by Azny Midhod Andre?
53:44
>> Yeah, I thought this was I thought this was um uh a couple things you could read into this.
53:49
So many V he says many VC firms are being asked by their LPs how they so utterly miss the entire 20 to 25 cohort of frontier AI startups that are now category winners.
53:59
Worse, they're being asked by the same by nextg founders.
54:03
I've never seen so many traditional investors become obsolete so fast.
54:07
It was like if you think about if you think back like the 20 uh 2020 through 2025, you had Zerp where just every category was going crazy.
54:21
>> And then you had like like fintech was super hot, crypto was super hot.
54:23
It was easy to get kind of like if you if you were a generalist VC, a lot of generalists like decided I'm going to go just be a crypto investor. Yep.
54:33
>> Uh or or I'm going to focus really heavily on fintech.
54:35
And then you also had the the sort of American dynamism boom which people were were drawn to in different ways and and but when you look back at um um when you look back at when some of these leading AI companies were started. Yep.
54:50
>> Uh it really was like 2022 during like a time where if a lot of VCs were like trying to you know do like basically damage control on the on their portfolios, right?
54:59
They had funded a bunch of companies like at at insane multiples.
55:03
we started seeing um you know a real kind of like correction in in um uh in venture and and uh if if you just like weren't really didn't have your eye on the ball and weren't like seeing kind of the future, you missed a lot of >> Yeah.
55:20
And when I see when I think about the cohort of frontier AI startups, who do you put in that bucket in that cohort 2020 to 2025?
55:32
Like if you're a if you're a traditional investor that doesn't want to become obsolete, what logos do you want on your portfolio page that signal to the next generation of founders and LPs that you did not utterly miss the entire 2020 to 2025 cohort of frontier AI startups? Uh put in that bucket.
55:52
>> First example that came to mind was like Listen Labs, right? $6 billion company now.
55:58
uh started in 2022, >> uh seems like it, you know, seems very obvious in hindsight, but if in 2022 you had like funded, you know, 15 fintech companies and we're trying to figure out what was going to happen to them as interest rates were spike, you know, spiking >> uh and and you were distracted by crypto.
56:19
You just like >> didn't, you know, you weren't there were people that were locked in on AI, right?
56:27
the people that I the people that I that come to mind is like people like a lot Gil who are in a lot of these companies, right?
56:33
Um the the a lot of the platform funds like I mean obviously uh uh Anjen at uh at Andre is is there in a lot of these companies but they're multi-stage right so it didn't matter you didn't have to catch them at at uh series A or seed although they they caught plenty.
56:52
>> Um and so and then the other thing is like if you're not in if you're a platform VC and you weren't in any of the winning foundation models. Yeah.
57:03
>> Like what what were you doing?
57:04
>> So Kla has a fantastic story around early open AI.
57:06
Thrive has a fantastic story around early open AI.
57:09
Then there was that first like pre like right around the right around the moment chatbt happened.
57:17
I remember there was a big round and a lot of investors got in there and it was around uh it was in the tens of billions and it was a crazy valuation to kind of come out of the gate with there was already this Microsoft deal. It was a complex thing.
57:35
You had to take a ton of risk on the nonprofit for-profit conversion.
57:37
the nonprofit for-profit conversion. But >> yeah, there was there to be clear there was plenty of reasons not to do% open AI% like whether it was pricing the structure there meme about uh the model the foundation model layer will commoditize right and so if you fell for
57:52
that meme you are not in >> and then there was the meme of like the application layer there's no value there was a period where people >> you fell for both like the midcurved both of them and then you're sitting here you got no foundation model bets no no application layer bets and you're
58:12
and and you're like well even the new foundation models are too expensive I can't do those and then this company is just like a trying to fast follow that company that already broke out >> y so I mean when I think about the the 2020 to 2025 cohort of frontier AI startups yeah I think 11 labs fits in
58:30
there um I think midjourney no one got into I think uh I would put deep mind you you couldn't invest because that was with Google, but it's got to be uh OpenAI, Anthropic, or a few of the other major uh like like application layer companies that have done very well. Um
58:47
Um >> and if you're in those, even if it was a growth round and you got in later, if you at least built a position and have something going on there, uh it seems like you kind of check this box.
58:58
But it is it is an interesting uh it is an interesting question uh to to phrase.
59:04
>> Um you gota you got to buy fifth AB sometimes. That's right. >> Linear.
59:08
Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products.
59:10
Meet the system for modern software development.
59:13
Streamline issues, projects, and product road maps.
59:14
Uh >> I think linear >> I think all the breakout AI >> companies are already running on linear and you should too.
59:25
>> Well, we have some news from Dylan Patel uh over at semi analysis. Another giant leap.
59:29
Nvidia Rubin CPX specialized accelerator and rack inference prefill specialized GPU.
59:33
Uh Dylan says, "Nvidia has widened the gap for inference rack scale architecture.
59:39
Yet again, prefill specialized inference chips massively lower total cost to own per million input tokens on long context transformers.
59:47
As usual, other AI chip upstarts will follow this with prefill specialized chips, but later and so uh yet another bullish take for Nvidia.
59:58
Everyone's competing, uh following the AMD story has been interesting.
1:00:00
Dylan's been been pushing AMD to uh fix some of the bugs, get more serious about AI, really uh talk to the developer community, engage with the developer community.
1:00:15
AMD was doing that was seeing some pro some positive uh some positive early signs of being taken more seriously. George H.
1:00:22
Hots was on the team a little bit uh uh but but has since like pulled back and you know Jensen sees semi analysis too and can see oh AMD is coming for my lunch I'm going to step on the gas and it seems like he has.
1:00:34
So, congrats to everyone over at Nvidia for putting on a putting on an absolute clinic >> in in Jack Fields.
1:00:41
Uh, says uh uh while he's quoting Sam, there's not a single person in the world who needs a two terbte iPhone 17 Pro Max.
1:00:51
Jack Field says, "Slaps car roof.
1:00:54
This baby can fit so much other in it." >> Is that a thing?
1:00:58
Like >> Yeah, if you look if you look at like storage, there's like a category called other. And is it big? Is that just eyeear?
1:01:06
>> Usually it usually is.
1:01:06
Uh >> that's a bad sign if I have other going on.
1:01:10
I have a one tab iPhone and I don't have any other. I have no other.
1:01:15
My my my phone is applications and then little bit TV. >> I'm looking now.
1:01:23
I don't I don't have >> system data.
1:01:26
>> I don't have it anymore, but there it used to be.
1:01:29
>> Oh, a little throwback to the other.
1:01:29
It used to be a much bigger >> Well, they've done a lot better exposing where the data is actually stored.
1:01:34
Um I think uh you know the two terabyte phone that feels like it's for um someone who >> Mr.
1:01:42
Beast filming you know his entire >> and and specifically the new phones 48 megapixel cameras uh gen lock so you can run them for a long time.
1:01:52
Better heat management so you can probably record for 10 hours if it's plugged in no problem.
1:01:57
And then you're saving all that footage and you can record in raw video now. Raw.
1:02:03
So that those are huge files.
1:02:05
So there is a world where if you're using this as a production tool, um I saw another take that was like the the iPhone 17 Pro gets you ready for the $2,000 iPhone.
1:02:13
Like the like mentally that's a that's a threshold.
1:02:16
That's a Rubicon that everyone has to cross.
1:02:18
And uh and and maxing it out and offering that level of performance and saying, "Hey, look, we put pro on it.
1:02:24
like you have to be using this in a professional context like you should be expensing this and for someone like Mr.
1:02:30
beast who says, "Yeah, I want >> so funny.
1:02:32
Every every every camera company just being like >> or Apple's not, you know, threat like they're really they're really, you know, >> he might be replacing that with a iPhone soon.
1:02:42
I I think the >> Watch out Sony. >> Watch out Sony.
1:02:47
>> Tim Cook wants your lunch. >> He's cooking. He's cooking."
1:02:48
Uh Naveen Ralph is leaving Data Bricks, a little bit of a trade deal, hundred billion dollar startup, to build a next generation computer to shrink AI compute costs.
1:02:58
And Data Bricks plans to invest. That's bullish.
1:03:00
Uh, data bricks sits around $100 billion and just raised 1B.
1:03:05
They're also at a $4 billion run rate. Congrats to data bricks. Wish we had our gong.
1:03:08
Um, a core problem for the AI industry is that large models are limited by memory bandwidth, internet, interconnect latency, and power.
1:03:14
So, every token can be can produce can be too expensive.
1:03:18
A purpose-built computer may tackle those costs by bringing memory closer to compute, wiring chips with faster links.
1:03:23
Is this data center focused or or uh or something that would actually sit on your on your desktop?
1:03:29
Um does this is this a George hot tiny box competitor?
1:03:35
I'm not exactly sure, but uh congrats to Naveen Ralph on the new gig.
1:03:41
We will be following the story and monitoring the situation. >> Big move.
1:03:44
We'll try to get them on.
1:03:45
>> When you sell those computers, make sure you're on numeralhq. com.
1:03:46
Naveen uh sales tax on on autopilot.
1:03:49
spend less than 5 minutes per month on sales tax compliance.
1:03:54
>> Uh Otto van von Tweetmark >> Tweet Mark >> says, "Can you short an entire country?" >> Referring to Albania.
1:04:01
>> Albania is uh appointing an AI generated govern government minister to govern the country's finances.
1:04:06
Apparently, they've had so many issues with uh with with like uh corruption and fraud that they're just like, "Let's just like >> make an AI." >> Yes.
1:04:16
No one's going to no one prop inject.
1:04:19
The top comment is uh their their alternative is an Albanian.
1:04:25
>> I don't I've never really uh I I don't I don't think I know many Albanians and >> has some wild stories about going to Albania, I believe.
1:04:32
I don't want to dox too much, but uh he has some he has some funny stories.
1:04:37
Hopefully, we can get him to share them on the show.
1:04:38
It's >> um the idea of like let's just use an AI for to to to like clean this up.
1:04:47
That's who's prompting it? Like are they reliable?
1:04:50
>> Well, what if they're I mean Mirati is Albanian? >> Yeah.
1:04:52
Think about Albanian American.
1:04:52
So they could get thinking machines.
1:04:56
>> It would be a pretty crazy story of uh what's it called? Sovereign AI.
1:04:58
It' be a sovereign AI story. >> I don't know.
1:05:02
I don't know if uh they're claiming that it's that it's their national champion yet.
1:05:05
She's not Albanian American.
1:05:09
Um, well, if uh if someone in Albania needs to uh chat with someone about their tax return, maybe they could get on Finn.
1:05:17
ai, the number one AI agent for customer service, number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive bake offs, number one ranking on >> John, I've been I've been informed that uh back home in the studio, the whole team is clapping along with us during the during the during the >> hopefully we get the audio mix in and everyone everyone goes for it. Uh Gary Tan had a post.
1:05:34
Uh AI startup founders tout a winning formula.
1:05:37
No booze, no sleep, no fun.
1:05:39
But Gary Tan disagrees about the no fun though.
1:05:42
And this is from the Wall Street Journal. Um San Francisco.
1:05:48
>> This is the vibe right now. >> Startup founding.
1:05:49
And we talked to a few of these folks.
1:05:51
One of these guys came on the show uh just uh at YC Demay actually. So uh fascinating.
1:05:56
And and this was uh this was a second uh this was clearly like a a story that was inspired by that previous story of that that that founder who said that the vibes 996 no run hard lift heavy marry early that whole that whole viral quote.
1:06:14
Uh this is uh probably like downstream coverage of that but uh in San Francisco startup founder Marty Kaussus was at the office on Sunday. Where else would he be?
1:06:25
Uh, Kaus is 28 years old.
1:06:25
Recently posted on LinkedIn that he put in three 92-hour weeks in a row.
1:06:28
He went on vacation once, he said, but flew home early because he was too stressed about work.
1:06:34
His goal is to build a 10 billion dollar company in 10 years.
1:06:36
The motive isn't purely financial.
1:06:38
There are easier ways to make money.
1:06:39
This uh it isn't part of a social mission either.
1:06:42
We built customer support software.
1:06:43
Uh it's not like this grand vision that we're saving the world somehow.
1:06:50
He compared his pursuit to a board game, one he wants to win.
1:06:52
I could be a programmer working at a big tech company, he said.
1:06:55
But that doesn't sound cool.
1:06:57
Instead, he raised $51 million for Pylon, an AI startup he co-founded. Congrats gone for that.
1:07:02
Um, >> yeah, I was just reflecting on this this this whole vibe and the coverage of this vibe and thinking about when I got to Silicon Valley and what was similar and what was different.
1:07:14
And so, >> you didn't have a PR person working overtime coverage. That was your mistake.
1:07:19
John, I I know you only raised like 17 grand in your first round.
1:07:24
>> Raised $17,000 and uh there was no concept of going to the office because the office was my bedroom and my co-founder lived in the same bedroom as me.
1:07:34
So, we had two beds in the same room and we would wake up and go sit at the same desk next to each other.
1:07:40
>> That's like a real lock in because you don't even have a private life, right?
1:07:44
Like there's not you have nothing. >> Nothing.
1:07:47
It's purely like there was there's one local bar that we went to once in Sunnyvale because there was nothing to do.
1:07:56
But we would we would go outside and we'd throw the football. >> Pig skin. >> Yeah, the pig skin.
1:08:00
We would go outside and get some sun and throw the football back and forth and then go back inside and just program.
1:08:04
And my and my day was literally like wake up at noon and because you don't have any calls, wake up at noon, program until 4:00 a. m.
1:08:10
, fall asleep, do the same thing the next day, seven days a week.
1:08:15
And there was no there was no alternative.
1:08:18
And there's other like we were also in this weird I mean also I wasn't 28.
1:08:21
I was I was 21 at the time.
1:08:24
>> It's funny because saying like I put in like three like obviously respect to Marty but saying I put in three 92hour weeks is another way you could say like for the last 3 weeks I've slept and ate and done normal human things for about 12 hours a day. Yeah.
1:08:40
>> And the other 12 hours I spent working. >> Yeah.
1:08:42
It doesn't hit the same as three, you know. >> Yeah, it is. It is. It is wild. Um, but I don't know.
1:08:51
I mean, in in general, like if this is a if this is there was there was a time in Silicon Valley also that uh you could raise enough money that you could just immediately be on like a party circuit and like clearly this is a step in the right direction away from that is like actually take the business seriously.
1:09:07
So hugely bullish overall.
1:09:09
overall. Uh it's just funny like thinking about like like the money flowing like there were not that many companies that in 2012 that were raising uh like double digit millions but then there weren't that many companies making money like we certainly weren't we had
1:09:24
no users so like who was going to fund us like $17,000 was the right amount of money to give us like and also like it's not like we were being recruited by big tech like if I tried to get a job there no >> the capital markets were efficient >> they were they were like it was like I didn't deserve 17K. I wasn't that
1:09:38
I wasn't that experienced.
1:09:41
Like I was just trying to, you know, like do something, build build a >> Yeah, it is a it is a, you know, it's very real that like a lot of founders would benefit from like having their first fund raise be like $100,000, which is just enough for them to like hack for two years and not have to get a job.
1:09:56
But the current the current state of the capital markets means that if you're like talented and charismatic and compelling and you have an interesting idea, you can get at least a million, probably well beyond that.
1:10:12
>> Um, you know, at demo day, like it was very obvious for the most part when you could tell.
1:10:18
I pretty much was guessing every time.
1:10:20
I was like, "Let me guess your rounds." Closed. >> Closed. Yeah. >> Um, >> I mean, yeah.
1:10:23
in in in 2012 like I think there were probably like five or 10 teams that like raised solid rounds coming out of like an 80 team batch.
1:10:34
Like it was it was not it was not snap your fingers and the money shows up.
1:10:38
The I mean the hottest like most overheated round was done at like 60 and everyone was like this is a bubble like this is insane.
1:10:45
There was one company most >> what company was that?
1:10:47
It was a company called Virule and they were actually really good at viral videos and they they were great at video production and they'd built an ad network and were doing sort of like some programmatic ads.
1:11:00
So, it was more like an ad business than like I I don't think they ever fully stuck the landing on like becoming like a major platform.
1:11:07
Like I I don't think that they IPOed or anything.
1:11:09
I know the founders's done quite well and has I think a number of businesses, but uh um they they launched a few like extremely great launch videos.
1:11:18
They I feel like they almost you could almost go back and credit them with like creating the original launch video.
1:11:24
You should look up vir >> by rule. Yeah. V V I R O L.
1:11:34
And the whole idea was like they would get you to go viral and so you would pay them and then they did >> it's still a I mean it's still >> it's still going. It's still cooking.
1:11:43
Well, Alex Debalov I believe is the founder. Uh great guy. Um >> still have 50.
1:11:47
LinkedIn says uh I don't know this company looks pretty dead. >> Okay.
1:11:52
Well, but uh I mean >> oh it's it's now called uh I guess it was a >> I mean the founder it was super young and and I met him in college and you know was just like he really was the type of person that you would want to fund at 60 because like he was making money in his dorm room like handover fist too like had actually scaled the ad network and was like bringing in real revenue and real profits.
1:12:14
It was just maybe like it wasn't necessarily going to turn into like, you know, AdWords because he didn't have like a Google attached to the front of it.
1:12:21
It's still like super impressive business, right?
1:12:25
Um, but they had worked with this uh video production company called Glass and Barker, which I wound up working with later.
1:12:30
Sort of like a precursor to Sandwich Video, a precursor to a Jason Carmen production, and was particularly good at uh at creating this like just super cinematic like Hollywood level video production for like a launch video.
1:12:45
Uh, and they they they put out a few that were really good.
1:12:47
I remember that like SWAT team going in pulling in like this like blue uh this like blue goo that was like radioactive and it was like you got to get the formula to go viral. Uh it was great.
1:12:58
Are you throwing them on there?
1:13:01
>> You're throwing them on there. Vy rule. V I r O L.
1:13:03
Alex Dealov, if you want to come on the show and tell us the full story, uh hit me up. >> Uh the moon. Probably the moon.
1:13:11
Well, yeah, they were they were going to the moon.
1:13:15
Um yeah, the other funny thing that I I I like is this uh so like uh you know the the these teenagers that they interview interviewed said uh the brass ring is a trillion dollar company with a global user base to grab it.
1:13:26
They rarely drink, scoff at work life balance and are locked in a 247 competition to be or appear to be the most obsessed.
1:13:32
Um the there's a framing there's a one framing which is like I don't drink because like it's like I've done the research and it's a carcinogen and it's bad for my health.
1:13:43
Um, there's another one which is like I I don't drink because it's like sacrificing because like I care about work.
1:13:48
Like for me and my friends is like we would drink every drop of alcohol that we could afford.
1:13:55
>> It was just not that much.
1:13:57
>> And so we had like three beers a month because like that was what we could afford and we and we did not we it was like yeah like if we're going to Costco and getting like a huge box of ramen like it's going to be a consideration if you take the 30 rack in the in the bag.
1:14:10
That's going to hurt your burn rate when you're on $17,000 for 6 months.
1:14:11
Like an extra 30 bucks in beer is like material.
1:14:17
>> It's it's a serious deal. >> Yeah.
1:14:18
I was hacking Chipotle, you know, with the like double beans, double rice because it didn't add anything.
1:14:22
And then and then >> you're not being like, "Yeah, throw a Corona in there with my with my meal at Chipotle." No way.
1:14:28
Um but uh >> I used to go to I used to go to um >> this is will be funny to you now, but I used to go to the the first like 20 trips I took to Arowan.
1:14:37
I didn't go in the building.
1:14:40
I would just bring jugs of water to fill up in this thing outside.
1:14:45
And I'd pull up with my car that had like 200,000 miles on it >> and just like just be like, you know, carrying these huge jugs of water.
1:14:53
>> Uh it's fond memories.
1:14:54
>> Here's here's the trade-off.
1:14:54
Um why would I go to drink at a bar if I can be building a company?
1:14:59
Um I mean it is the right tradeoff and it is the thing that you don't want to lose as the capital markets loosen, right?
1:15:05
This is such a this all the people that are uh screenshotting this article, why would I go drink at a bar if I could be building a company?
1:15:15
That is a really >> Yeah, it it there is a little bit of this that's like uh that's like the the whole the whole question the Wall Street Journal is clearly asking here is like >> I don't even like I don't like bars and I don't like drinking, but this is still a funny quote. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:15:30
No, I I I understand what you're saying and I understand what people are are are are screenshotting it about, but the the the interesting thing is like if the money starts flowing in Silicon Valley, like the thing that you would definitely not want to lose is like the time in the office, like the time actually working.
1:15:47
Like that's the worst thing to lose.
1:15:47
Um and so and even even if you have to justify it in this like, you know, psychological way. Yeah.
1:15:55
>> Uh it's it's good not to lose that.
1:15:55
Uh because as soon as you actually go to the bar every night like you're definitely not building >> I was thinking I was thinking like I've always felt I had you know somewhat of a balanced life, right?
1:16:09
I have a we we we realistically we work like 60 hours a week and that like we leave home at >> somewhere around 5. >> It's pretty balanced. >> Get home around 5:30.
1:16:20
Um and then obviously working randomly on on you know nights, weekends etc.
1:16:26
But I was thinking you know people say like social life, work like you know family like pick two. >> Yeah.
1:16:35
>> And I realized recently took me a while to realize like how much I sacrificed like my like social life, right?
1:16:41
like my like social life, right? cuz I feel like I have a social life at work and and um I'm lucky that uh a lot of the people obviously consider every person on our team a friend and >> uh and the people that I invest with her are friends and the people that I work
1:16:56
with are friends but um yeah, you do have to this this is just um this culture of like sacrifice everything but the company works really well when you're 20 when you're when you're in your early 20s, mid20s depending on when you >> I think we I think We found the ultimate killer in this article. Uh, Hassab Oola,
1:17:14
Uh, Hassab Oola, he works out of Founders, Inc.
1:17:17
, a waterfront campus in Fort Mason that provides desks, a hardware lab, game room, uh, stage area for hackathons.
1:17:23
He lives on one Uber Eats meal per day to save time and avoid cooking.
1:17:29
Uh, Oola pays $700 a month to live in a former office building that was converted to a living and workspace for about 20 residents.
1:17:38
The beds, which are clustered in a common area, are fully enclosed pods.
1:17:43
He literally lives in the pod um with a privacy curtain similar to a train sleeper car.
1:17:48
With the curtain shut, his pod gets pitch black, letting him sleep days after working all night. This guy is a killer. I'm betting on him.
1:17:56
I love this is not a LAR.
1:17:56
$7 a month is so little to live on in San Francisco.
1:18:02
I assume that's where this is. Founders Inc. Fort Mason.
1:18:05
>> He's living in the pod.
1:18:06
>> He's living in the pod. He's locked in. It is funny. It is funny to do to do.
1:18:10
>> Shout out to this guy.
1:18:11
>> You would think he could maybe eat two meals if he didn't do Uber Eats and he just walked to to grab some food, but it's too locked in. >> Too locked in.
1:18:18
Yeah, I I think it's probably worth the tradeoff.
1:18:21
Um but yeah, I mean >> this is still I got to put I got to I got to say like getting delivery is still an extreme luxury. >> Still a luxury.
1:18:31
back in back I would not when when >> when I I would not I was like on a like once a week like treat yourself to to Chipotle type of thing and otherwise it was like yeah there's we have like chicken breast and rice at home.
1:18:47
>> No no no like you know in my own head being like you know the quote the meme of like your your your mom says you have you know XYZ at home but that was like in my own head I be like I have food in the fridge I'm not I'd be and I'd be guilty, you know, being, you know, ordering uh ordering delivery.
1:19:06
>> No, I I remember one one one night I was up like really late working.
1:19:09
I boil some water in a in a pot to make ramen and I and I got sucked into a coating problem and I let the water boil and evaporate and it destroyed the pan and it was like that's our capex out the window.
1:19:28
devastating hit to depreciation.
1:19:28
Like we were expecting to depreciate that asset over two years and now we have to buy another pan.
1:19:36
Like what are we going to do? We don't have a pan. Pans are expensive.
1:19:39
Money doesn't grow on trees.
1:19:41
You know, we only have 17K. >> This is rough.
1:19:43
Um >> Kous the guy uh the the original guy from Pylon um is on the Brian Johnson diet. >> Okay.
1:19:53
>> So, >> well, he's raised $51 million.
1:19:53
And I and to be clear, I do think that like all of this is proportional.
1:19:57
Like if your business has grown to the point where you can raise 10 million or 50 million, like you do not be you do not need to be living in the potty.
1:20:04
Like pay yourself a reasonable wage.
1:20:07
As soon as we raised real money and were making real revenue, like we were in like decent apartments with cleaning and like with >> And it's amazing to feel like you you you have like a relatively the the lifestyle of like a corporate athlete >> or or even just an entry level corporate athlete, but it still feels like a massive luxury 100%.
1:20:25
Like my >> 800 ft in a when I moved Yeah.
1:20:27
When I first moved to LA, I had a my apartment.
1:20:34
It was a It was a um two-bedroom apartment that I I had a roommate.
1:20:37
So, I felt lucky to have my own room, but I had no windows in the room because the window opened up to like a common area at at eye level.
1:20:47
So, if I had my if I didn't have like I literally put cardboard up.
1:20:52
If I didn't have cardboard up, people would just see into my bedroom.
1:20:55
I was like, >> and then uh >> that's hilarious. >> Super dark.
1:20:58
But uh this this quote is hilarious.
1:21:00
He said his ideal employee for a sales role at the startup is a quote unquote PhD.
1:21:04
Poor, hungry, and desperate. >> I like that. That's good.
1:21:07
You got to get >> grinders.
1:21:10
>> You got to get grinders.
1:21:10
People that want to be on the on the upside. >> Yeah.
1:21:14
There should be a term for somebody who fasts until their next like steak sales dinner.
1:21:19
It's like they only eat when they're closing.
1:21:24
>> I only eat when I'm closing.
1:21:24
Like a real hunter on the >> on the savannah. It's pretty crazy.
1:21:27
Nico Lockoff, $25 25 years old, wants to build a trillion dollar company uh uh with a goal of replacing traditional insurance companies.
1:21:38
His father is a lawyer from the insurance company.
1:21:40
So, he only hires people willing to work seven days a week.
1:21:43
Of his 40 plus employees, around 30 are ex-founders.
1:21:48
That is a crazy stat just because like it really speaks to the to the amount of founders that exist in the Bay Area now.
1:21:56
like in in like you could not I mean this happened like are uh are you familiar with the Y scraper instead of the sky skyscraper there was there was a this was in maybe 2008 2010 uh there was one building where all
1:22:13
of the YC companies lived after they graduated from Mountain View and went to San Francisco called it the Y scraper and and there was and there was enough of so you have you have stories about like Coinbase working right next to the Airbnb and B guys. I don't know if
1:22:25
I don't know if that's exactly right, but like you you could imagine a few different big companies coming and it was like if one company failed it would just be like okay come over to this company like join forces.
1:22:35
Um but but you couldn't necessarily do that to the tune of 75% of the workforce in the first 40.
1:22:40
That's that that that feels new and it feels like a a an example of how >> totally >> how much more popular entrepreneurship is these days.
1:22:50
Um it says he lives at the What? He lives at the office.
1:22:55
Loqua said who considers himself the most hardcore of his peers.
1:22:59
Employees share similar feelings.
1:23:01
Uh though not a work requirement, Loqua said twothirds of our early employees got corgi tattoos. That is hardcore. Wow, >> that's crazy. >> I I have no tattoos.
1:23:13
I've never been big into that world, but um that is certainly a commitment.
1:23:17
Um hopefully you own the IP.
1:23:20
Do not >> So interesting. this company.
1:23:23
Uh I'm I'm on Nico's LinkedIn and this is a stealth startup still.
1:23:29
>> Well, he's not >> you're not you're in the >> you're getting >> you're in the journal and you're t you're tatted up.
1:23:34
I think you're you're safe to come out of stealth then. >> Yeah.
1:23:37
Hopefully you have the IP locked up.
1:23:39
Uh I went through YC with a with a company called Pair that was a uh I think it was like an app for you and your significant other.
1:23:49
And so it was imagine a social network.
1:23:51
basically all the features of iMessage.
1:23:53
You know how in now in iMessage you can like see all the photos that you've shared between you and one person.
1:23:58
So I can pull up like our iMessage and I can go into that info panel and see like here are all the links that Georgie sent. Here are all the images.
1:24:06
I can send you little stickers and and all sorts of different stuff.
1:24:09
Pair was that for like a romantic couple so you could like draw to each other.
1:24:13
Had all these like fun little games and stuff.
1:24:14
Um and pair wound up getting sued by pair networks and they were like whoa whoa whoa.
1:24:20
like we are a consumer dating like messaging app for like a husband and wife to share their life together.
1:24:29
you're a networking company, pair networks, like you sell into data centers. Yeah.
1:24:33
Like why are you suing us?
1:24:35
And they were like, "No, you're a technology company.
1:24:37
We're a technology company.
1:24:38
You have to change your name." Yeah.
1:24:40
And so they did and they became couple.
1:24:42
And it was like this huge uh huge difficult thing.
1:24:44
So uh anyway, the importance of getting your name in IP lockdown before you get the tattoo.
1:24:52
>> We have an important uh ad.
1:24:52
So Senra's in the in the YouTube chat says, "Can we get founders podcast on the board?" >> Oh, absolutely.
1:24:58
We didn't add you because this was so skitso.
1:25:02
>> We want to indict you, but you are really the godfather of podcasting. Created the cat. >> Yeah.
1:25:09
>> I don't think I don't think we can see up there. I don't know.
1:25:11
We'll have to have to see.
1:25:13
We can't we can't see you up there.
1:25:14
Uh you have a ton of space to your left though.
1:25:17
So get down and go keep going to the left past vibe coding and past Discord to the left past Larry Ellison.
1:25:24
That whole area you got like three feet to work with over there.
1:25:27
You can draw massive stuff. There we go. Here we go. Oh, yeah. This is good. Going downwards. This is perfect.
1:25:38
Okay, I'm I'm seeing everything. We're good.
1:25:40
Uh Lockwell regrets getting his Colombia University degree, he said, because he wasn't solving societal problems in class.
1:25:46
I always want to do the maximally ambitious thing I can think of and make the biggest impact possible.
1:25:51
Uh Yuan the Corgi co-founder said her life too centers around work which across the startup scene is populated largely by men.
1:25:57
From a personal perspective I don't mind it as much but it does suck to see not that many women in startups.
1:26:02
Jared Freriedman uh partner at Y cominator said the work ethic and energy of San Francisco's young founders feels like a return to the early days of the internet. And I agree with this. This is a great take.
1:26:13
Um when people slept under under their desks at companies such as PayPal I actually see it coming uh as a as a full circle moment.
1:26:19
AI is probably 10x as big.
1:26:23
Uh Freriedman said the tech >> Yeah.
1:26:26
I mean it's very helpful if you have, you know, >> five to 10 other heavily funded companies in your category and so capital is not really a constraint for anyone. Yeah.
1:26:35
>> And it just comes down to raw execution.
1:26:38
>> Do we just conference Senra in right now on this?
1:26:41
>> Yeah, we got to ask him about I >> I gotta call Senra and and get him get him to tell us about the sleeping under your desk.
1:26:48
Should I give him a call? Senra. Let's see.
1:26:50
Let's see if he's available. I'm I'm I'm calling him.
1:26:52
I'll put him up if he's available.
1:26:55
He's in the YouTube chat, so hopefully you can come on the show.
1:26:58
Uh I totally emphasize Hey, how you doing? >> You're live.
1:27:04
>> Did you mean to call me? >> Yeah. >> Yeah, you're live.
1:27:06
>> We saw you in the We saw you in the chat. >> We got Elias.
1:27:09
>> We're doing Happy Friday, man.
1:27:09
We're doing a whole deep dive on this Wall Street Journal article about the young founders in San Francisco who are working 12 hours a day, six days a week.
1:27:20
There's a bunch of examples. >> Yeah.
1:27:21
So, we wanted to ask you, is hard work important >> or is it overrated?
1:27:26
>> We'll go to an article about people working part time. >> No, no, really hard.
1:27:28
And the article focused on the job.
1:27:32
>> The article is framed as like as like are they working too hard a little bit or like is this a LAR? Are they pretending?
1:27:37
And uh we wanted to go to the source and get the get the final answer.
1:27:43
>> They do with the other >> that's what Journey said. >> That's what I said.
1:27:46
It's like put differently.
1:27:48
They're they're spending eight hours a day sleeping, four hours a day, you know, doing whatever they want.
1:27:53
>> Watch Netflix, I guess.
1:27:55
>> I'm like, what would I what would my what would our lives look like if we didn't have five kids? >> It's crazy.
1:28:00
>> Like and wives that we that I don't know. Yeah. Love dearly. >> Sorry. That's part time, buddy.
1:28:06
996 is part-time raking David Senra has called it working 996 is considered part-time in the founders podcast world >> did you guys ever I know you're into like bodybuilding did you ever read the education of a bodybuilder by Arter
1:28:24
>> no I should sounds fantastic >> oh my god okay so um somebody posted like the great lockin and it's just like nine episodes of founders >> yeah oh I saw that >> I think >> so one of them I think is Arnold So auto wrote two autobiographies. One when he
1:28:36
One when he was a 70, which is fine. >> Yeah.
1:28:40
>> But the way more extreme one he wrote when he was 30. >> Oh wow, that's young. >> Half of it.
1:28:46
So the first half of it is really like 110 10 page biography, right? Autobiography.
1:28:51
And then the second half is like his workout routine, which like another 100 pages.
1:28:55
>> But uh basically he would, you know, people were just like, "Yeah, I work 12 hours a day."
1:28:59
He's like, "So what else did you do with all the time?" like >> Wow. Yeah, that's awesome.
1:29:09
>> I I don't want to get kicked off stream, but uh he tells I'm going to do the PG version of this.
1:29:14
>> Like this is before he made it to America, right? >> Yeah.
1:29:17
>> So, he would go to like him and his other bodybuilder friends.
1:29:21
>> They go to like this forest out in Austria or maybe in Germany and they would bring a bunch of women and they'd bring a bunch of like beer and food like schnitle or whatever that is. >> Schnitle. Okay. >> Yeah.
1:29:31
And they would essentially like go out there, they'd strip off their clothes and they would like lift like tree trunks and they'd swim in the and they swim in the uh >> lake or something >> in the lake and they would just essentially just work out all day.
1:29:42
Uh I was like this guy's ex incred all day.
1:29:51
>> Uh who's the who's the hardest working founder purely by hours working hours spent working on a single company that you've ever studied?
1:29:58
E Elon probably because if the the how Elon thanks for um reading and covering that episode last >> you guys did a good job on it but it >> was awesome.
1:30:09
>> So there there I actually had a really interesting conversation recently with >> uh somebody everybody knows who's been a founder for multiple decades and I and he he came up in the technology industry and he's been there forever and I actually asked him that question.
1:30:21
I was just like >> who's the greatest like entrepreneur you ever dealt with or like you knew about?
1:30:29
And uh he's like, "Listen, you might not like him.
1:30:32
You might not like working with him, but it was undoubtedly without hesitation a young Bill Gates." >> Young.
1:30:40
>> That would be my other answer if it wasn't Elon. >> Yeah.
1:30:43
>> From the time they started Microsoft in that little strip that little um strip mall in Albuquerque, New Mexico. >> Yep.
1:30:49
>> The guy until he left the company.
1:30:49
Like I don't think he did a single other thing.
1:30:52
Do you think that Bill Gates hardcore uh founder mode era was defined by his ruthlessness with regard to deal making or actually the amount of hours he spent in the office?
1:31:06
Like have you heard stories about early Microsoft being this 996 culture working 12, 13, 14 hours a day or was it strictly that when he went into every single negotiation he was willing to do anything to win?
1:31:23
Well, so like he's not working 12 hours a day. He what he do.
1:31:25
So I'll give you a preview. Okay.
1:31:28
>> Um the next episode I'm working on right now is about a young Bill Gates.
1:31:30
It's gonna The title has to be something with hardcore because his favorite word. >> Yeah.
1:31:36
>> So he would >> work 36 hours straight until he couldn't literally stay awake and then he'd just crash and sleep in his office for like a few hours and pop back up. >> That's hardcore.
1:31:46
>> That's I don't want to hear about, oh, I slept I got a good night's sleep.
1:31:48
I'm I'm a grinder, but I got a great night's sleep last night. >> Yeah. So, like, let me >> Oh. Oh, you're a grinder.
1:31:57
Let me see your sleep score.
1:32:00
>> Better be in the single digits.
1:32:02
>> Better be in the single digits.
1:32:04
>> But let me tell you one of the funniest stories about Bill Gates.
1:32:06
So, the best book written about him is it's called Hard Drive.
1:32:10
Bill Gates and the making of Microsoft Empire.
1:32:12
So, the same guys that wrote that essentially it's it's a biography of the first 35 years of his life.
1:32:17
Then they it was so successful they wrote a follow-up.
1:32:19
The follow-up book is not good.
1:32:21
But there is a story in the follow-up book that is one of my favorite Bill Gates stories of all time.
1:32:26
>> And the the thing I >> the thing I would say about Bill Gates is like he has a ruthless competitive drive that would terrify people.
1:32:32
And so one of his main competitors is this French guy, I can't remember his name.
1:32:38
Uh they would like, you know, they were going to war over and over again.
1:32:40
And they would go they would the only time they would like interact they'd find themselves at the same like computer conferences.
1:32:46
And so he he sees Bill Gates sitting on a folding chair in the corner of this computer conference alone looking at something.
1:32:54
And remember this they're like head head-to-head competitors, you know, now this guy's completely disappeared.
1:32:59
And so he goes over and he wants to say hi to Bill and then he walks up to him and he realizes that Bill's in the corner by himself staring at a picture of the guy >> of his >> of his competitor.
1:33:16
He's just obsessed with >> like a picture of you and >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:33:25
Uh, next time I see you, I'm gonna make uh, you know, my profile picture when I call you your phone's background.
1:33:34
Just remind you remind you of me constantly. >> You hard drive.
1:33:39
The way I described him in the first episode I made about him on episode 48 long time ago >> is that Bill Gates is a Genghask Khan in a Mr. Rogers costume.
1:33:52
>> Yeah, that's about it.
1:33:54
>> There's a few ways to read that. >> That was true.
1:33:58
That is uh that's hardcore.
1:33:58
That is that that is hardcore. Yeah.
1:34:01
Well, thank you so much for giving us more context on what it means to hardcore be hardcore and grind in an entrepreneurship context.
1:34:10
Hope you have a fantastic rest of your day.
1:34:13
>> And thanks for uh calling me and I'm just going to say publicly what I said to you guys yesterday after seeing what you did in New York Stock Exchange.
1:34:17
I'm super proud of you guys. >> Thank you.
1:34:20
>> Uh you're absolutely crushing it.
1:34:20
I just don't I don't think you could have any kind of limit involved.
1:34:23
very curious where you take this for the next few years. >> Thank you, brother. >> We'll catch up soon. See you. >> Love you. >> Bye.
1:34:32
>> And >> always good to guest even when you thought we weren't going to have a guest.
1:34:35
>> They said we couldn't do it.
1:34:35
They said it was impossible when you just got two random mics in the conference room that you could have a guest on your show, but you can.
1:34:43
>> Um anyway, uh honestly, congrats to everyone who got mentioned in this article.
1:34:47
I think there'll be some snarky takes.
1:34:49
I think there'll be some supportive takes.
1:34:50
Uh overall it seems pretty high leverage to uh throw up a flag that says, "Hey, I'm working hard on my startup."
1:34:58
Get mentioned in the Wall Street Journal.
1:34:59
They probably had to take what half an hour off to do a little phone call for this.
1:35:04
Um and overall probably pretty high lever effort.
1:35:09
So, uh congrats to all the all the young grinders in San Francisco working 80hour weeks.
1:35:13
Uh good luck to you all and uh and congrats on your first Wall Street Journal mention >> first of many hopefully.
1:35:22
>> And if you want to help grow your startup, get on Adio, customer relationship magic.
1:35:26
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1:35:30
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1:35:30
Um >> did you see that uh Poly Market is getting offers up to 10 billion? >> Whoa.
1:35:41
Poly Market is of course a sponsor.
1:35:41
Um what uh is volume just going through the roof?
1:35:46
Isn't aren't most of Poly Market's metrics kind of public because you can just look at the chain, right? >> Yeah. Check driving.
1:35:55
>> That is they're about moment.
1:35:58
>> They're about to be, you know, launching their app in the US.
1:36:01
Everything to date has been international.
1:36:04
>> That is a big catalyst. Yeah.
1:36:06
>> Um >> so lot going on.
1:36:07
They're they're obviously duking it out with Kelshi, but uh it's great to see Shane on an absolute run and >> put more put more uh put more cash in the coffers, more opportunity to to build and and scale the business.
1:36:22
Uh it's been a fantastic data source for us.
1:36:26
Uh of course, Poly Market Powers the ticker that you see on the show all three hours long every day.
1:36:31
Uh, and it's been a it's been a source of uh of insight for us through our entire partnership.
1:36:37
So, thank you to Poly Market for sponsoring us.
1:36:38
Y >> um uh Rehat has a funny uh screenshot says design is not just what it and you can't really see it because this is no way. This has to be fake.
1:36:49
Uh I think he's uh memeing some liquid glass nonsense and some poor design, mixing up the design, but he got 6K likes potentially with the fake news.
1:36:59
I don't know if this is real.
1:37:02
>> There's no way they >> There's no way this is real, right?
1:37:03
Uh anyway, uh we'll leave it to figure out the good jokes.
1:37:10
>> Anyway, uh in other good news, Cass over at Shopify now open door uh is replying to random posts on Twitter uh saying, "Email me.
1:37:22
I'm still at Shopify until tomorrow. Here's my email."
1:37:24
And uh and FOD says, "Bro, this guy grinding to the last minute.
1:37:30
Love this level of dedication."
1:37:32
Um you know, uh o open doors all over the place. The stock's way up.
1:37:37
It's become this meme stock that uh is is fascinating because um uh I was talking to Brandon about this with uh he was saying like there's something interesting about the open door story that is this like retail army driving a meme stock.
1:37:50
meme stock. uh the valuation is basically I mean Keith was actually steelmanning it saying that uh as a as a revenue multiple uh it's not that crazy it's in the same territory as some other big public companies I think he cited Robin Hood at 31x revenue or something like that and so >> wait what company
1:38:08
>> uh so so open door he was saying that like open door is not disconnected from the financials if you if you if we can deliver on the growth and we can deliver on a revitalization plan right that was the that that was his pitch and and so and so >> but but he he wanted to fixate on the revenue multiple. >> I think it was the revenue multiple.
1:38:28
>> I think it was the revenue multiple.
1:38:29
Okay, you you can go and look at his reply but basically uh I I I I don't think anyone anyone disputes the fact that Open Door is trading very differently than it was trading last year.
1:38:40
Last year, he was trading like a company that was in manager mode with a new CEO and and had gotten kind of hit in the postzer era and had not done particularly well across a couple quarters and was I mean the stock was you know Jim Kramer would probably say the stock's in the dumps but the stock is no longer in the dumps.
1:39:00
It's been on absolute tear.
1:39:00
People have been making fortunes off of it and the question is um you know what do they have to deliver?
1:39:08
Well, they clearly have to go, you know, they have to kick it into a completely different gear.
1:39:12
And it's just exciting to see Cass take the CEO role and be cut from a very different cloth.
1:39:20
Like, uh, I've interacted with Cass.
1:39:21
He's been, uh, I've actually emailed him at this email and he solved a problem for me on Shopify in like two seconds.
1:39:27
Uh, he almost they basically saved my business.
1:39:32
So, I mean, he is he's a remarkable operator.
1:39:34
>> Very aligned comp structure as well. Totally.
1:39:37
He's really only makes money at like a dollar. >> Yep. Exactly.
1:39:42
Uh and so people will debate the valuation.
1:39:45
Um it's clearly trading a on the back of a completely different narrative with a completely set of investors that are setting the valuation.
1:39:54
Uh it's now valued it was it was valued very low.
1:39:56
Now it's valued very richly.
1:39:58
Um, but it's it is interesting to see uh some real legit folks in Silicon Valley step in and say, "Hey, we're going to do the turnaround thing."
1:40:08
You don't often see this.
1:40:08
thing." You don't often see this. Most time when most times when a VC incubates or backs a company and it gets out into the public markets and they're able to distribute the shares and they're able to sell their position down if that company does not do well over the long
1:40:25
term they are looking for the next startup to go in and take a second run at that business right so if I I I'm I'm I'm not going to be able to think of a perfect example but I mean even just think about like like uh the story of Square like Square was Keith Boy as well, right? He was in that. It's like He was in that.
1:40:42
It's like he wasn't saying like, "Okay, I sold PayPal.
1:40:46
I need to get back into PayPal to do more fintech stuff."
1:40:48
He was like, "No, like I'm fine to do another startup."
1:40:52
Um, and there's and there's a variety of of stories where uh someone's someone's taken a company, taken it to acquisition or taken it all the way to going public and then the VCs and some of the entrepreneurs and some of the early employees say, "Hey, we still really like this uh we like this industry."
1:41:12
I mean, maybe the best example is is RAMP and Parabus.
1:41:14
example is is RAMP and Parabus. like Eric Lyman and Kareem Matia took a run at at you know understanding like the financial credit uh you know how people spend money saving people's time and money on the consumer side with Parabus
1:41:31
sold the company and we're like there's more opportunity here let's keep going and so I feel like that's the default playbook in Silicon Valley is that once once you've bet on an industry you've bet on a a category and you've backed the the right founder you've gotten your return. You've
1:41:47
You've returned capital to our LPS either through an IPO or an M&A process.
1:41:53
>> You're not saying let's go back into that same structure. >> Yeah.
1:41:57
>> You're saying let's start again.
1:41:57
Let's start a new company.
1:41:58
But this is this is an interesting twist in that is that you could imagine Cass saying, "Hey, I've been at Shopify for a while.
1:42:05
I want to start a a real estate technology company." >> Yeah.
1:42:10
>> And so Keith is going to write me a check.
1:42:12
Coastal is leading the series A.
1:42:14
I got a couple people that I've worked with before and no, he's coming into open door.
1:42:17
He's actually turning around.
1:42:19
So, it's a little bit it's a little bit different.
1:42:20
Although the the GameStop story was somewhat similar because the the CEO of GameStop had founded Chewy, I believe, and was a very successful entrepreneur and it was a similar example of like someone there was still a lot of questions about GameStop, like can they turn that company around?
1:42:35
Um, but the stock performance was obviously crazy.
1:42:39
Uh but it was not a uh it was not a purely financial person stepping into the role.
1:42:46
It was an experienced uh CEO who built a real company and to like at real scale. >> Yeah.
1:42:53
>> Anyway, I don't know if you have a I don't know if you have more of a take on Open Door or Shopify or anything like that, but I've been uh >> Yeah, I'm excited to see what Cass does >> bringing it in. It'll be interesting.
1:43:02
Uh how did you sleep last night? Did you get to catch up?
1:43:06
We need the soundboard because I got a 92.
1:43:10
>> How did you pull that off? >> I got a 92.
1:43:11
I got to sleep closer to the airport.
1:43:14
>> I got to bed really early.
1:43:15
>> Uh, how's your How's your sleep experience?
1:43:17
I'm using an eight sleep by the way.
1:43:20
5year warranty, 30 risk trial, free returns.
1:43:23
>> Got only 6 hours and 27 minutes.
1:43:26
>> I'll leave a fivestar review for eight. The app. I love the app. It is fantastic.
1:43:31
>> I am currently potentially you're you're going into a big >> I'm currently ill. Yeah.
1:43:36
I uh I have the I have the HRV of a of a dead person. >> It's terrible.
1:43:42
Uh well, lock in this weekend. Get some sleep.
1:43:45
We will be uh fortunately home later this evening. Um this was fun.
1:43:49
Uh iPhone error bend test on Tom's Guide.
1:43:52
Uh Icon says, "An Apple exec casually throwing their product across the room and not flinching at all when the host misses and it clanks off of the wooden table is insane.
1:44:02
Apple is extremely confident in the durability. >> This one up.
1:44:06
I I I looked this one up because I was like, again, this is like a parody account.
1:44:10
It looks like it looks like it's >> fake video, but it's a real real video. >> No, it's real. They're confident.
1:44:15
They I mean, the Do you remember BendGate?
1:44:17
Do you remember this with the iPhone?
1:44:19
I think it was the iPhone 6. No.
1:44:21
>> They went It was the thinnest iPhone ever, and it got truly thin, like well way thinner than this back then.
1:44:25
They went they were thin maxing.
1:44:28
So, they they were width minning. I don't know. Is that the word? They went super thin.
1:44:35
And the problem was that if you applied a little bit of pressure, you could actually bend it and break it like pretty easily.
1:44:40
Like you could do this and it would bend. >> Now it's titanium.
1:44:42
>> And now it's titanium. It's thicker.
1:44:45
There's more structural support inside.
1:44:46
But the question with the iPhone Air was obviously like, "Hey, you're back to being super thin.
1:44:49
Is this thing going to bend?"
1:44:51
And they just toss it across the the conference room and uh the and the host tries to bend it and he is unsuccessful.
1:44:57
And I think they figured it out.
1:44:59
Um anyway, they probably designed it in a Avengers themed office.
1:45:04
Did you see this article in the Wall Street Journal's mansion section today? Um, >> of course I did. >> $4.
1:45:08
4 million renovation helped one Winnipeg couple turned their 12,000 square foot home into an into an experience and a story.
1:45:16
The Wall Street Journal says an Avengers office and a Frank Sinatra garage.
1:45:20
They built their own Disneyland. I love this.
1:45:22
I love when people go crazy with the the Renos and make the homes their own.
1:45:26
Um, some Disney fanatics get their fix by visiting theme parks.
1:45:30
Tech entrepreneur Jeff Fetss and his husband Chris Fetts wanted to live in their own Magic Kingdom.
1:45:36
The setting for their dream home, a 12,000 foot traditional style home built in 2009 in the tuxedo area of Winnipeg.
1:45:45
>> We got to ask you I'm going to scare me right now.
1:45:48
What the area of Winnipeg?
1:45:52
And so here he is standing next to what looks like a very fancy luxury car with the biggest Cardier Santos on his wrist.
1:45:59
I believe he is an absolutely beast of a watch.
1:46:02
If you want a Cardier Santos, head over to getbzel. com.
1:46:03
Your bezel concier is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch.
1:46:08
Um, >> such a good transition.
1:46:11
>> They uh they brought the they bought the brick, stuckco, and limestone house for around 4 million in 2029. Then they spent 4.
1:46:17
4 million in a three-year renovation.
1:46:21
>> Double >> to actually uh to actually upgrade the house.
1:46:24
Uh we wanted to elevate the design to the level of fantasy.
1:46:26
Uh Chris, who was a full-time cast member, dancer, and parade performer at Walt Disney World Resort.
1:46:35
>> Wait, is he just is this like extremely lucrative? >> No, no, no, no.
1:46:38
So, so the so the uh his husband so uh there's Chris and then there's also uh J Jeff and Jeff uh has uh has a startup uh has a business that does uh actually customer service and uh and has become very successful from that.
1:46:58
Uh he co-founded a customer service tech startup now called InTouch CX.
1:47:03
After uh seven years they moved to Winnipeg to be closer to the family.
1:47:08
Um they met in in 1997, so they've been together almost what 20 years.
1:47:13
Um they were both students at the University of South Florida and uh yeah, they figured it out.
1:47:18
Um they have some crazy crazy stuff going on here.
1:47:20
Uh let's read about the um >> this shot of the the cars in this entryway. >> The cars the inside.
1:47:28
I mean this art deco stuff is wild.
1:47:30
We wanted each room to be experiential.
1:47:35
who grew up going to Disneyland and would regularly grow go to Christian's shows when they were first dating.
1:47:38
The garage mahal as they as the couple have dubbed it is a garage that was renovated to as a shrine to Frank Frank Sinatra.
1:47:47
It houses a peacock blue Rolls-Royce silver shadow sedan that's that Sinatra bought as a wedding present to his wife Barbara which Chris won in an auction.
1:47:56
The jazzy room with lacquered wood paneling, oversized backlit frame photos of Frank and Barbara, and a curved blue sofa is where Chris hangs out, listening only to Sinatra Records and drinking cocktails with friends.
1:48:07
It's way sexier than a man game. It's crazy.
1:48:10
Jeff's downstairs office is nicknamed Avengers Headquarters, and the windowless room has the feel of a spaceship.
1:48:16
To enter, you touch a panel and a pocket door swooshes open like in Star Trek.
1:48:20
There's a long metal mission control station, aka desk.
1:48:24
The walled the walls are claded with stainless steel and covered with television monitors and Avengers logos.
1:48:29
And there's room to store much of Jeff's 40,000 comic books.
1:48:31
On display is a full-size Iron Man costume.
1:48:35
It makes me feel very in touch with my childhood.
1:48:39
Uh they call one of the bathrooms the spa.
1:48:41
And uh the story goes on.
1:48:41
You can read it in the journal. But what a wild house.
1:48:46
Um >> you love when uh when someone makes it big and just just blows it all on a >> Renault.
1:48:53
I texted Jeremy hear me say that uh studying for their dream, a 12,000 ftĀ² traditional style home built in 2009 in the tuxedo area of Winnipeg. I said tuxedo area. He said enforced by law.
1:49:06
Actually >> enforced by law.
1:49:08
>> Do not go to the tuxedo area of Winnipeg without wearing a tuxedo.
1:49:14
>> You will be you will be uh >> taken into custody.
1:49:18
>> Anyway, let's move back to the timeline.
1:49:20
Uh, Nater Khalil says, "Friendly reminder that multiplying revenue by 12 is not a RR >> says a lot that this goes viral in in the year 2025 >> 2 over 2,000 likes."
1:49:36
>> Yeah, you got >> What about Harry's asking the important questions.
1:49:38
What about multiplying daily revenue by 365?
1:49:43
Hey, >> if you've got lumpy revenue >> hour that you processed your biggest invoice and then multiply >> by the number of hours in a year >> multiply by 24 then you have your hourly >> actually take it a step further to to find the exact minute that you got the
1:49:58
largest payment ever and multiply that by 60 and then by 24 and then by 365 and that is >> right math to do >> and that is the way to think about >> we just had our biggest minute ever >> ever >> like Like people talk about their quarterly earnings. >> We just had our biggest minute ever.
1:50:15
>> We just had our biggest minute ever.
1:50:17
>> It put us on a $20 trillion. >> Here's the proof.
1:50:20
Here's the Stripe dashboard.
1:50:21
Here's here's exactly what Here's the exact minute the payment.
1:50:24
If you want to bet on some companies that are subject to GAP regulations and need to actually deliver uh revenue uh in uh quarterly reports that are SEC uh regulated, head over to public. com.
1:50:44
Investing for those that take it seriously.
1:50:45
Multiasset investing, industryleading yields, they're trusted by millions, folks. Public. com.
1:50:48
Um also Emily Sunberg, breaking news.
1:50:52
She has commissioned Donald Boat's work. Um, do you want to know?
1:50:58
>> This is a crossover I was not expecting.
1:51:01
>> Do you want to know the very first sensation I felt while attempting to eat this spasm, my jaw cramped, an inward violent shaking? I cried out in pain.
1:51:09
Burgers shouldn't be this tall.
1:51:09
That was instant divine comeuppance.
1:51:12
I was punished from above for even trying to place it in my mouth. Says Donald Boat.
1:51:18
So, I'm interested to see what Donald Boat does.
1:51:20
Obviously, he's a very creative mind, very skitso.
1:51:22
He he's mastered like he's we have this, you know, skitso red string uh diagram behind us, but Donald Bo takes it to a completely different level with his collages.
1:51:33
Um, which I have uh I've enjoyed.
1:51:36
He's he's done some fantastic posting.
1:51:38
Um, Morning Brew has a story.
1:51:41
Uh, yesterday Larry Ellison's fortune grew by $100 billion.
1:51:44
And today, uh, Larry Ellison's son, his media conglomerate, is getting ready to buy Warner Brothers, normal family things.
1:51:53
These two, uh, father, this father-son duo is is on a generational run. You'd love to see it.
1:51:58
He is, uh, running around acquiring companies, becoming a media mogul. Pretty fun. >> Crazy.
1:52:05
>> I actually have not dug into what's going on with Warner Brothers, um, what's going on with Discovery.
1:52:09
I know that there's like the merger and the free press is involved somehow.
1:52:13
Uh I'm hoping we can get Barry Weiss on the show at some point to kind of break it all down for us because I >> Warner Bros.
1:52:20
is up uh up >> 53% the past five days. >> Yeah.
1:52:27
>> Yeah. Um >> I do think it's interesting that uh at least in the uh at least in the dotcom boom uh like the primary investment bank desk that would watch tech companies would also watch telecom companies and also media companies tech media telecom
1:52:44
like if you went to Goldman Sachs and you wanted to analyze what we think of as like pure technology companies um you would be >> TMT tech media and technology and it's because they all have the same they all have >> very similar are zero marginal cost business models. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
1:53:00
>> So if you create if you create Mickey Mouse or you own a telephone line or you have a website and you're selling SAS, those are all financially modeled somewhat similarly.
1:53:11
And so it made sense to put them all under the same coverage group.
1:53:15
Of course now like there's a dedicated desk just for semiconductors and just for you know social apps and just just for SAS uh and just for enterprise.
1:53:23
Um, anyway, >> imagine imagine being able to run around buying companies knowing that you have the full backing of your father, but you're buying company. I mean, Warner Bros.
1:53:34
is worth 46 billion there.
1:53:34
There >> that's a lot more than I would have guessed. Wow.
1:53:40
>> Uh, is preparing a majority cash bid, meaning that like they're going to spend at least put up at least um >> Ellison's into debt.
1:53:48
I feel like he's not afraid to lever up.
1:53:50
Maybe that'll happen at some point.
1:53:52
But yeah, put the cash together, get the get the company. I I don't know. It'd be cool.
1:53:57
I feel like uh I feel like I I've never met uh Larry Ellison's son, but I feel like I would trust him to make the next Superman and Batman film and Warner Brothers owns the DC universe, I believe.
1:54:13
And I feel like he would have good instincts.
1:54:14
I'm also excited about the Jeff Bezos James Bond.
1:54:16
I feel like it's going to be good. I don't know.
1:54:18
I know you know nothing about movies, so why >> what uh who who's the who's the who's going to be Mr. Bond? >> I have no idea.
1:54:26
But uh I just uh I I I think a lot of people a lot of the true James Bond fans are are worried about this idea that um that uh now that Amazon owns the rights to James Bond, they're going to like franchise it like they did with Star Wars.
1:54:41
So there'll be like a James Bond show and a James Bond kids show.
1:54:44
Like if you've seen Star Wars, it used to just be like there's three great movies, then there's three prequels, and then Disney was like, "Let's do three sequels and then two extra movies, and then spin-off show."
1:54:55
Like, there's probably six or seven different shows for The Mandalorian and the the Boba Fett and all the different spin-offs, and there's kids versions.
1:55:05
>> I think that's kind of fine.
1:55:05
Yeah, >> I think I think Star Wars has been kind of like Yeah, there's like some mediocre stuff in there, but like you can just not watch it and overall there's like there's enough to pull off the shelf.
1:55:14
So, like if you want to watch something with a four-year-old, you can.
1:55:16
If you want to watch something with an eight-year-old, you can.
1:55:18
You can get into the original.
1:55:19
The original trilogy still exists there.
1:55:20
Like, you can still watch it. So, like I don't know.
1:55:22
I've been I've been happy with that.
1:55:23
I would be happy with more James Bond content.
1:55:27
Let Bezos cook on on on Bond in my opinion.
1:55:31
>> The um It's so funny people being like, "Oh, they're going to spend 200 million on the free press."
1:55:36
Meanwhile, it's like such a rounding error when you talk about like the totality of of deals that they're looking at doing.
1:55:43
They're looking at buying a a $50 billion public company >> and you want to turn around these assets and and improve them and uh you need great talent and if you need >> Yeah.
1:56:00
>> if you got to spend a couple hundred million to get somebody to to you know >> I think I I I I think it makes a ton of sense if you're just thinking about it through like those Mark Zuckerberg mindset of like who do I want around the table right now?
1:56:12
I want a bunch of great people who are entrepreneurial, who are, you know, super connected live players who really care about this stuff.
1:56:19
Uh, yeah, you got to go spend some money to get them, but uh, it's going to work out.
1:56:24
Uh, anyway, apparently there's a company called Math Inc. and >> Will Brown.
1:56:28
Do you think they actually got Do you think they actually got Math Inc.? >> I don't know.
1:56:33
Maybe >> like because these aren't >> Mathematics Inc.
1:56:36
There's there's there's a certain flex to getting >> I mean you can get >> Christian says uh excited to share that I'm starting a new company dedicated to the creation of verified super intelligence via auto formalization.
1:56:50
So is this a competitor to >> um is this a competitor to Vlad's thing building on the amazing RL infrastructure that we developed at Morph Labs? Mathematics Inc.
1:57:02
has already achieved a breakthrough result.
1:57:04
Uh, and their hiring page says, "We call a date a square if all its components, day, month, year, are perfect squares.
1:57:12
I was born in the last millennium and my next birthday will be the last square date in my life."
1:57:21
So, there's a very hard math problem here.
1:57:22
And you just have to in order to apply for the jobs, you have to solve a math problem. So, I don't know.
1:57:28
You want a job and you're good.
1:57:28
Also, I feel like this is this is an odd question because I feel like if you copy this and you and you ask it like of a frontier model like >> that the whole I imagine that's the whole point. I doubt it. I do you think it can?
1:57:43
>> We should try >> if Well, if it would >> pretty I mean I I I have yet to see like a like a hard math problem out there that that hasn't been pretty easily oneshot by um most of the um like like this type of like concise question uh is typically handled by a frontier model with reasoning.
1:58:07
Um maybe not, but we'll see.
1:58:10
Uh, more importantly, uh, a video game entrepreneur has just paid $31.
1:58:13
5 million for an oceanfront Hampton's home.
1:58:17
You got Hampton's up on the board connected to Pekk.
1:58:20
Uh, the deal marks the latest in a string of luxury transactions, the busy East End market.
1:58:27
So, uh, CCH, uh, this is Matthew CCH.
1:58:30
It's a circa 1970s home in East Hampton.
1:58:34
He's the co-founder of Saber Interactive, a video game developer and publisher.
1:58:38
and I dug into them and they do a lot of porting and platforming.
1:58:40
So, a game will be put out by one publisher and and they'll say like, "We would love to get this Xbox game on Nintendo Switch."
1:58:50
And uh Matthew Cart will pick up the phone and say, "My team would love to do that.
1:58:54
We will do the hard work of making sure your game works on the Nintendo hardware or over here."
1:58:59
And and they do a lot of other stuff.
1:59:02
but he has some he has some great video games in the portfolio and obviously it's uh it's provided for a wonderful life and he is now in the position where he can uh buy a $31 million home.
1:59:12
He's also I believe he sold the company and the company changed hands again and so it's unclear exactly who uh who who owns what, but uh it's a cool story and uh now he has a wonderful stunning house.
1:59:26
The house literally sits on top of the ocean.
1:59:27
The property is so amazing that I wanted to buy it and figure out the details later. he said.
1:59:30
So, he's talking to the journal. You'd love to see it.
1:59:32
If the if the journal calls you about your home, you got to pick up the phone.
1:59:35
Uh, the seller, an entity linked to Norman and Helen Stark, bought the estate for $4. 7 million in 1994.
1:59:41
The property first hit the market in 2017 for $75 million. Wow, that's high.
1:59:47
It' been off the market for years.
1:59:49
The most recent asking price was 39 million.
1:59:51
Property contains five bedrooms, roughly 7,000 ft main house, as well as a guest house, tennis court, and pool.
1:59:57
The Hampton's real estate market, like those in many vacation destinations, soared during the pandemic, but the number of Hampton's sales hit a 14-year low in 2024 amid tight inventory and rising mortgage rates.
2:00:08
And there's an interesting dynamic where renting a house in the Hamptons is like a massive multiple of what it costs to buy uh pay the mortgage on a house because people really only want to be there in the summer.
2:00:19
They don't necessarily want to buy or live there.
2:00:23
So there's the kind of an odd disconnect between the rental and purchase market where where you might not see that in LA. >> Yeah.
2:00:30
At the same time, I don't I don't think it necessarily maps out to buy Hampton's house right now and just rent it in the summer. >> Totally.
2:00:37
>> Just given given where rates are. >> Yeah, makes sense.
2:00:39
Uh in the second quarter of 2025, there were 26 home sales in the Hamptons at or over $10 million compared with 22 in the second quarter of 2024 and six in the second quarter of 2023. 2023 was really slow.
2:00:55
Uh KCH also owns two properties in nearby Sag Harbor that he uses for vacations.
2:00:59
He's considering selling one of them.
2:01:01
Anyway, uh another >> keep a couple homes nearby >> deal.
2:01:06
There's a series A financing for a new company that just came out of Stealth. Brain Company. Uh we saw Math Company.
2:01:12
Now there's Brain Company.
2:01:12
Uh Brain Company emerges from today.
2:01:17
>> We're getting somewhere. We're seeing a trend. I like it.
2:01:19
Uh, Brain Company emerges from Stealth today and we are announcing our $30 million series A led by Elad Gil and Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners.
2:01:26
Brain Company provides an AI platform and applications for the world's largest and most important >> we were getting this company.
2:01:34
>> What >> did we >> Yeah, we we were connected.
2:01:35
I I I believe we'll hopefully have the founder on soon.
2:01:39
Um, all Gill is also coming on the show soon, so we can talk to him about this.
2:01:42
Um, so go check it out if you're looking to get in early, go work there potentially.
2:01:47
Um, >> meanwhile, the profound team is using out of home advertising to try to find an office in Union Square.
2:01:54
Driving around a uh driving around a an advertising truck, >> a box truck, uh, trying to find their >> I think they should scale this campaign. They should get on ADQ.
2:02:07
Out of home advertising made easy and measurable.
2:02:10
Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising.
2:02:11
Only ad combines technology, out of home expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe.
2:02:16
I mean, seriously, they should put some of their testimonials or like case studies on like billboards and airports.
2:02:20
Like, that makes a ton of sense.
2:02:22
If you're just like a general business and you're interested in getting your brand mentioned on Chat PT, uh just flashing the profound name in front of people, that's pretty high value.
2:02:33
>> Um >> anyway, did you see the knockoff Bugatti? >> I did not.
2:02:38
>> This is uh >> but this is offensive to my >> This is extremely offensive to uh Bugatti's Italian.
2:02:44
Wait, Bugatti is an interesting company, right?
2:02:46
because they're like it's German, but then they have a they have a they have an their manufacturing plant is like on the border and it's like changed hands a few times or something.
2:02:54
But uh anyway, most people know the big Veyron Chiron.
2:02:56
Um but uh >> it's German and then French >> is a top Yeah, that's right. It changed hands.
2:03:04
Uh but then it was acquired by an Italian/homecleaning robot maker and it's showcasing the photo of its first car, a Bugatti like luxury battery electric vehicle.
2:03:13
So, it's a >> Is this dream?
2:03:16
Is this a Chinese company?
2:03:19
>> It is a So, uh, Teor Taxes says, "A vacuum cleaner robot company founded in 2017." >> Wow.
2:03:26
They're literally a Dyson knockoff.
2:03:27
>> They're a Dyson knockoff. Knocking off.
2:03:30
Uh, valued at $3 billion is making a luxury EV.
2:03:32
Now, Apple gave up after 10 years of trying, burning 10 billion.
2:03:34
And >> this is so offensive in my culture. >> I know.
2:03:40
It's crazy how much it looks like a movie.
2:03:43
>> I mean, it wasn't even >> It even has like a rear diffuser on the back. >> Well, well, yeah.
2:03:46
So, they're knocking off like the Veyron, but then also the new one, which I've >> Turbion.
2:03:52
>> Uh, >> yeah, the Turbion's the latest one.
2:03:54
Although, are are you talking about some of the one-offs cuz they've done >> there was a one-off that looks >> they've done like convertibles, but there there's only I I believe there's only three major platforms. There's the solitire.
2:04:04
The solitire is they're so they this knockoff is using the front end of the solitaire. >> Yep.
2:04:11
>> I mean it's closer to it.
2:04:13
Just like a solitire knockoff. >> Yeah. >> Really really dark. Never do this.
2:04:17
Uh if you're if you're running Dream Tech, um >> contact your lawyer and uh work with them to wind down the company. >> Um just shut it down. Close up shop. You guys had a good run.
2:04:32
you're out of ideas and uh just just uh close it up.
2:04:36
>> How do you think this sells?
2:04:36
I mean, China's knocked off the TYON successfully.
2:04:39
They've knocked off a few other cars successfully.
2:04:42
Um I wonder what the >> Yeah, I do think it I the the the humor here um is that they will probably make a pretty solid car and it will cost like they can start selling Bugattis for a couple >> hundred probably. Can you imagine?
2:05:00
>> No, but like you could imagine they sell this for like a couple hundred grand >> 150 or something which is why >> and then if these I could see this making it into America where somebody's like wait I can drive >> make it to America this will get caught at the ports for sure
2:05:14
>> you mean you mean like >> yeah IP trade dress like it'll be easy to lock this up it's not making it to America um but people will be driving around in China I mean I' I've heard about fully fully counterfeit cars before like in China they would they have the ability to set up like it's a
2:05:30
Gwagon factory and it makes cars that look like G Wagons and >> that are bad >> every badged everything is trying to be as perfect as possible a true knockoff and then they work their way to other countries you take it in the dealer and they're like we can't work on this engine this is not a Mercedes engine
2:05:48
>> well yeah and and the reason that knockoff cars are not as big as knockoff watches is like there's no regulatory framework for watches right you're not going to hurt someone else by driving wearing a fake Rolex or whatever Y >> um >> uh this was big. This was big. Uh uh two This was big.
2:06:03
Uh uh two of the Clo founding team have broken off. >> Pretty crazy.
2:06:11
>> I guess they are doing uh running the same playbook. >> Yep.
2:06:14
Uh Gris says life update.
2:06:14
Left Clue to start our own thing. Already at 1.
2:06:18
2 million ARR, seven days in stealth.
2:06:21
Had no idea making money was this easy. Announcement soon. Instinct Inc.
2:06:26
Uh, this post is fascinating.
2:06:33
Fascinating because doesn't say what the business is. 1. 2 million ARR. What is it?
2:06:41
Subscriptions of some sort.
2:06:42
>> It's written to to trigger >> debate. Yeah.
2:06:46
Had no idea money was this easy.
2:06:48
Yes, you did have an idea that making money because you were saying that >> and clearly you said making money was easy.
2:06:54
I I know how easy voting is, but here we are talking about it anyway. Good luck to them. >> You baited us. You baited us.
2:06:59
No, but yeah, wishing them wishing them luck.
2:07:03
>> Um, and I wonder if they will start uh beefing with their former employer to uh >> from Yeah, from a WWE perspective, that is going to be unmissable content.
2:07:12
if they are constantly chirping at each other and fighting and going on podcasts and debating each other and and taking shots and running adversarial billboard ads against each other.
2:07:25
Like there is a world where that generates more views than anything they've done before.
2:07:30
Uh that might be the final state of of startup media and marketing.
2:07:34
The real question is like what is what what does this say something about like whether or not Cle has hit product market fit? We demoed the product.
2:07:43
Uh we we we were not very sticky.
2:07:46
Tyler, it seemed like he enjoyed the product and thought there were some glimmers of hope, but he he did not become a daily user. >> Audience.
2:07:55
>> Well, when we talked to Roy, it was it was wasn't clear who the who the target audience was.
2:07:58
It was maybe the college kid who wanted to cheat on an exam or you want to cheat on an interview, but then that was probably illegal and risky, so you don't want to do that.
2:08:08
Then there was like maybe it's enterprise sales.
2:08:09
Then Roy was talking about brain computer interfaces and VR and so like there were just like a bunch of different ideas clearly throwing spaghetti against the wall unclear what was sticking.
2:08:21
Um and so I'm I'm interest I am interested to see what Instinct Inc.
2:08:26
winds up building and I'm wondering if they uh have done more work to make sure that they're building on top of a solid foundation because the big question that was looming around clearly was just uh masterful marketing, lots of clearly breaking through the noise, cutting through the noise, getting downloads.
2:08:45
Um but was it a leaky bucket?
2:08:49
And so have has this team now that they're on their own, have they built a less leaky bucket with this?
2:08:54
Because what happens if you stop going viral? Does that $1.
2:08:59
2 million in ARR turn into nothing over 14 days because everyone unsubscribes? Who knows? >> Yeah.
2:09:07
>> Anyway, >> I I I would go out and uh guess that they're just starting a creative agency, >> which would probably make a lot of money really fast. >> I think so.
2:09:17
>> So that would make a lot of sense.
2:09:18
Anyway, uh find your happy place.
2:09:21
>> Find your happy place.
2:09:22
>> Book a wonder with inspired views, hotel grade amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, and 247 concier service.
2:09:25
It's a vacation home but better, folks.
2:09:27
Uh we will close out with this.
2:09:30
25 years ago, uh there was an article in the newspaper in the Daily Mail, Tuesday, December 5th, 2000.
2:09:39
Internet quote may just be a passing fad as millions give up on it.
2:09:47
And of course recontextualized Max the VC is obviously drawing a a comparison to the AI narrative.
2:09:53
I don't know if anyone's gone out and actually said AI is a passing fad.
2:09:58
Uh people have kind of said like maybe we're over our skis on capex or maybe we're over our skis on on you know enterprise value >> or maybe the promises are too grand. >> Yeah.
2:10:11
Maybe we're not getting ASI tomorrow. >> AI 2027.
2:10:14
But I I I don't think anyone is out there really saying, "Yeah, in 10 years, like we're not going to be chatting with LOL."
2:10:23
>> No funny to try to I mean, it's it's very difficult to to uh like this article is especially funny because internet may just be a passing fad as millions give up on it.
2:10:35
It's like, well, are those millions of people benefiting from other people using the internet?
2:10:38
If so, then like it's >> has enduring value.
2:10:43
Crazy researchers found that millions were turning their back on the worldwide web.
2:10:47
Uh frustrated by its limitations and unwilling to pay high access charges.
2:10:53
They say that email far from replacing other forms of communication is adding to an overload of information.
2:11:02
Experts from the virtual society project which published the result the report say predictions that the internet would revolutionize the way society works have proved wild wildly inaccurate.
2:11:15
Many teenagers are using the internet less now than previously.
2:11:17
They conclude James Chapman I would love to know where James Chapman is now.
2:11:22
He was a science correspondent at the Daily Mail and uh it's interesting.
2:11:26
Mail and uh it's interesting. I mean he it's you can't really say like he got this wrong because he's just publishing the facts which is like these researchers found this data point and kind of leaving it up to your interpretation but um less
2:11:43
>> yeah and that's like all these articles come out like AI adoption in the enterprise is dropping or or >> uh what what was the MIT report like 95% of Gen AI pilots are >> I mean that that that meter report was like the most bearish take on cursor possible because it was like cursor is slowing people down. That was like the
2:12:02
That was like the the the basic reason >> and yet and yet demand >> but you dug into it and there was a lot of different ways that it could actually speed you up in certain in certain contexts in certain products getting better.
2:12:15
>> Just look at the demand for >> exactly. Yeah. Incredible.
2:12:17
the apparently cursor in the secondary market is trading closer to 30 billion than 20.
2:12:28
>> Um, >> that's up there, man. That's up there. >> It's great, though.
2:12:33
>> Incredible time to be alive.
2:12:34
>> Incredible time to be alive.
2:12:34
Well, thank you for tuning in to our remote live stream today. We will see you. >> We did it.
2:12:41
They said it was impossible. We proved them wrong.
2:12:44
Um, and uh, next week got some travel in the in the middle of the week, but >> we will be back in the Ultradome Monday >> uh, and Tuesday. Very excited.
2:12:57
>> And, uh, get out there this weekend and touch grass, be with your loved ones. Uh, log off. I'm excited to log off. >> Excited to log off.
2:13:05
I think Charlie uh would >> won't uh was known for logging off from Friday night to uh Saturday and we'll be doing my best to do the same.
2:13:16
Uh and uh >> thank you so much for tuning in.
2:13:21
>> Thanks for tuning in this week. >> We'll see you Monday. Goodbye.