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Founder You're watching TVPN.
4:36
Today is Wednesday, March 4th, 2026.
4:40
>> New haircut, >> new haircut alert.
4:41
We are live from the TVP, the Template Technology, the fortress, finance, the capital, capital.
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Let me tell you about ramp. com. Time is money. Save both.
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4:51
Uh, we have a little bit of a shorter show.
4:54
Let's pull up the linear lineup.
4:55
Linear, of course, is the system for modern software development.
4:58
70% of enterprise workspaces on linear are using agents.
5:03
We have Dean Ball coming on to give the other side of the ball versus uh Thompson argument uh about anthropic.
5:11
Then we have Scott Capor and Jared Isaacman coming on to talk about space.
5:14
We're going to the moon and they're going to take us there.
5:16
And then we have Adam Bry from Skyio who I actually worked with through Andre Horowitz uh maybe 10 years ago.
5:22
And then Matteo, CEO of Eightle has some exciting news.
5:25
and Dylan's coming on to break down the latest AI agent, Hermes agent.
5:29
Well, anyway, uh there was some big news uh this week.
5:36
Of course, everyone knew that Apple was launching new products.
5:37
Uh but there were some surprises and uh there's some cool stuff starting with the MacBook Neo.
5:43
Um my the the more downstream take is like how is Apple affected by the AI boom?
5:50
But let's start with the actual products because uh this thing in the video it looks so small.
5:54
It looks like an 8 in laptop.
5:57
I guess this is uh so this is the MacBook Neo sort of designed to compete with the Chromebook. Uh it comes in at $599.
6:07
>> Well, not even just the Chromebook, just all PCs.
6:09
Uh yeah, but I mean you're not going to get this for like if you're in a professional work place, go to a desktop with multiple monitors, plug in, you're doing like advanced work like this is for students.
6:23
This is for the low end and >> just a personal computer.
6:26
I think I think it's designed for people that have an iPhone but don't have a Mac. >> Yeah. >> Because of cost. >> Yeah. Yeah.
6:35
>> And now they can have an integrated suite. >> It's Yeah.
6:37
I mean it's a it's a crazy product.
6:38
I I love the I love the launch video, too.
6:40
Uh it's very weird when they start because it's just this like blank block and then they're adding features to it with CGI.
6:47
Uh it does a really good job.
6:49
It's sort of anticlimactic because every feature they add is just like what you'd expect. Yeah.
6:53
I was kind of like, "Oh, is this going to be a touch screen?"
6:56
And then it's like, "Oh, no.
6:57
It's just a normal screen."
6:57
And it's like, "Oh, like guess what? It has a keyboard. Boom. Mic drop.
7:01
Oh, it has two USBC ports."
7:05
It is kind of cool that they put the uh the headphone jack a little bit further down. Thought that was cool.
7:10
And then they're like, "Check it out.
7:12
You're never going to guess this. A camera.
7:13
We put it on the computer."
7:15
>> They're like, "Hey, we heard you liked having an iPad that you could attach a keyboard to."
7:19
So, we basically took an iPad and put a keyboard.
7:23
>> But it's very cool how how they like sort of expand the product, like show you.
7:27
Okay, there's the speaker. It's pretty big. It goes on the side. There's two of them. Shows you.
7:30
But this does not look like a 13-inch computer to me.
7:34
This looks like an 8 in computer to me.
7:35
This looks like a small iPad.
7:35
And 13 in is a very normal size.
7:39
>> Maybe the model is just like shack or something. >> Yeah. Yeah.
7:41
No, I I think they actually use someone with the big hands to make it like maybe look smaller or something.
7:45
But uh 13-inch display, 16 hour battery life.
7:48
The price is the really crazy thing. So $599 for students. It's $100 cheaper. So $4. 99.
7:53
That is one of the cheapest Apple products they've ever made.
7:58
I'm pretty sure the headphones cost more.
7:59
The Apple Pro uh Apple AirPods Max cost like 500 bucks.
8:02
Uh remarkably cheap A18 Pro chip.
8:05
Uh 256 gigs or 512 of storage, four colors.
8:12
They got it in ramp yellow.
8:12
They call it Citrus, but I think everyone's going to be >> And it now cost the same amount as the entrylevel iPhone. Yeah. 17e. >> Yeah.
8:20
And it has Wi-Fi 6E, Bluetooth 6 connectivity, 8 gigs of RAM, uh 1080p frontfacing camera.
8:25
Like people are sort of like, ah, it's underpowered. But look at the price. This is This is crazy.
8:28
The last time Apple had a product that was anywhere near this cheap was um wow where where was it? Uh let's see. I I I wrote about this.
8:41
So um in 2014, so 12 years ago, long time ago, uh they sold the MacBook Air for $8.
8:48
99 and now they have this down at $4. 99 or 5. 99. Uh which is remarkable. Really, really cheap.
8:55
Uh cheap for 2026, cheap for an Apple product.
8:57
even cheap when compared to other laptops.
8:59
So, uh this is sort of like their their their escape hatch, their pressure release valve.
9:04
So, they can actually increase the price on the other products more because if you're price sensitive, well, they have a product for you.
9:13
And there was something similar that happened with the the new suite of iPhones where the iPhone Pro Max was getting so big and the camera notch was so in your face and the phone was bigger and heavier and the battery life was great.
9:26
It was very powerful and a lot of people want that.
9:28
But there were also a lot of people who were complaining, I just want a thinner phone.
9:31
Well, then then you have the iPhone Air and there's going to be crazy trade-offs.
9:34
You only get, I think, one camera.
9:36
The battery life's not nearly as good. >> Lags. >> It lags.
9:39
But for some people, if they're going to be complaining about the all the features of the Pro Max, it's like, well, we got the Air for you. Stop complaining.
9:46
And I think that's a lot of the strategy uh there.
9:47
So, um, the other products they launched [clears throat] MacBook Air with a with an M5 chip, MacBook Pro with the M5 Pro and M5 Max chip.
9:59
>> Uh, did you wind up going How much memory did you wind up going with? >> 48. >> 48. Is that enough?
10:04
>> I feel a little I feel a little soft.
10:05
>> Is that enough to pull up tweets and react to them on a live stream?
10:09
[laughter] >> It's up there.
10:12
>> Uh, apparently you you actually have been maxing out something like 32 gigs of RAM, which uh, which took me by surprise.
10:17
I have not had I've not been memory constrained, but I do I do actually love the idea of getting the top end memory, which is the thing that constrains you on running LLMs locally. Is that correct, Tyler? >> Yeah.
10:32
I mean, you can always like uh if you have a really model, you can like get around the memory thing, but then it gets like super slow because you're like loading it in and out. >> Okay.
10:40
You're loading it in and out for like every token that you're >> generating.
10:42
You need a lot of memory swap. Yeah.
10:43
But but so so if I go with the 128 gig, the top-of-the-line chip, I should be able to inference like a pretty smart model locally pretty reliably.
10:55
>> I mean, it's also like the you can always just quantize the models down and so like >> you can actually run like really frontier like source models on like pretty normal hardware now.
11:04
>> I'm I I'm just purely thinking for you know doomsday prepping the idea of you know how you have your library in case you're bored during the apocalypse.
11:10
You have your DVD collection.
11:12
You can watch all the movies from start.
11:14
That's That's the big one for you because you're going to be able to watch all of American cinema from the beginning.
11:19
>> I I still I still don't think I'd actually watch. >> You wouldn't do that. What would you be doing?
11:23
Assuming that the internet's down in this apocalyptic scenario. You can't scroll.
11:26
There's >> plenty of other things to do. >> What would you do?
11:29
>> Take a walk on the beach.
11:30
>> Uh what if you can't go outside because there's nuclear fallout everywhere?
11:33
You're stuck in your bunker. What are you doing? Whiddling.
11:35
Did you get into whittling?
11:39
>> I actually used to love whittling as a kid. >> Called it. color.
11:41
He's not gonna be watching movies. He's gonna be whittling.
11:44
I will be whittling while I watch movies, while I inference a local model that I can just ask questions to and and get all sorts of history.
11:49
And there might be a few few uh a few hallucinations because it's not clearing the internet because of course in this hypothetical scenario, the internet is gone.
11:57
Um but I would still have access to, you know, all the pre-trained uh information and basically the world's best encyclopedia, which would be fun.
12:06
Um what else did they launch?
12:06
Uh, in a world uh in a world where computers keep going up in price, it's kind of wild to see Apple drop a 599 laptop, says Theo. I could not agree more.
12:16
Fry says, "Oh man, they're going to sell 5 billion of these things."
12:21
Yeah, this is uh this feels this feels like more of a no-brainer for kids than an iPad for some reason.
12:28
I don't know if I'm just like old school and I'm like if it has a keyboard, it's horrible.
12:32
>> iPad iPads with kids just have really bad aesthetics. It does.
12:34
kid with an iPad just zoning out, right?
12:38
>> You get them a keyboard, they're locked in, >> but you get them there.
12:41
>> I think there's something here.
12:42
>> You're like, are are they trading? [clears throat] >> Yeah.
12:45
>> Are they >> Yeah, they're doing something uh for sure.
12:48
Uh it might be underpowered, but uh it'll get the job done.
12:50
And they I I I think there's something about, you know, typing on a keyboard that does lend itself to more creation and less consumption.
12:57
Like the iPad is a media consumption device.
12:59
That's where where most people use it for.
13:01
Throw on Netflix, play a game, do something.
13:05
there there aren't that many people that are power users, but as soon as you get the keyboard, you're ready to type.
13:08
You're ready to you're ready to work.
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13:28
So, uh, [clears throat] hilarious chart from Andre Horowitz. Apple on capex. Nah, we're good.
13:36
Uh they looked at the standard standardized quarterly capital expenditure for Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Apple.
13:44
And all of the four companies that are working on AI, Amazon obviously through AWS and Anthropic, Microsoft through OpenAI, Alphabet through Gemini, and Meta through MSL.
13:57
They are all absolutely off to the races going to the moon on capex and Apple is down 19% since uh 2015 on this standardized uh metric that A16Z put together.
14:09
put together. very very funny and uh it's just interesting that Apple has been so unaffected by AI costs not just on the capex side which is where every hyperscaler sort of had to say yep you know what our business is fundamentally different now uh we are not the high margin cash flow generating business
14:28
we're going to draw down on that cash we might be taking on some debt like this is a big big different financial model it's a very different financial model from years past and buckle up you're coming with us shareholders and the stocks have done well because a lot of shareholders have believed in the goal
14:44
[clears throat] believed in the value of AI believed in the value of building compute infrastructure broadly and they've been rewarded for it in most cases uh but Apple's just sort of sat that out and said hey we're not we're not going to train a foundation model we're not going to build a whole bunch
14:59
of compute infrastructure >> we're going to serve Gemini >> we're going to serve Gemini and we'll pay them what a billion dollars a year something like that it's like uh >> yeah I mean this this year will be really interesting it'll be fascinating to see what the new Siri actually looks like, what it can really do. We'll start
15:11
We'll start to see that, I think, in Q2. >> Yes.
15:16
>> And then separately, we're expecting new devices from OpenAI, right?
15:18
Teasing >> the puck, dime, whatever you want to call it.
15:24
call it. Uh it'll be interesting to see if they can kind of break the the uh AI hardware curse that I feel like is >> well I I wanted to think about that because I I wonder if the story is over for some of those like cursed bad
15:40
launches product like we saw friend apparently has found a little niche very controversial but Humane has sold to HP it seems like they're not working on that product anymore the pin the AI pin but the Rabbit R1, I think his name's Jesse. Uh, you know, that product,
15:56
Uh, you know, that product, there's there's something there where with enough iterations, I feel like that might sell well.
16:03
I was playing with the board the other day.
16:05
Uh, that hardware, it's like a huge screen, touchscreen that you can play games on.
16:11
Like, there's still these niche applications that I think you could potentially, if you have a hardware team, you have the ability to sell something. It's It wasn't polished.
16:19
The AI wasn't good enough. Well, the AI got better.
16:21
You still have the supply chain.
16:22
Maybe there's a way to cut through, but it probably needs to be a little bit more niche.
16:26
Like everyone's gonna have one.
16:28
Tyler, what do you think about hardware in the age of AI?
16:31
>> I mean, I I think the Mac Mini is like a good example of like AI hardware right now. >> Yeah.
16:34
No, that's a great example. Yeah.
16:36
I wonder I I I I wonder what uh like how exposed the Gemini APIs will be in iOS because if you if you fully expose like Gemini Kit like you know in iOS just like you can call like a weather API or maps API like Uber exists because there was like a there was like a GPS API that
17:00
you could just call within an iOS application uh with a couple lines of code and you didn't have to like figure out where the user was because the iPhone just told you that as long as you clicked like, "Yeah, share my location with Uber." If you now get an app that
17:12
If you now get an app that has not just Apple's local LLMs that are sort of, you know, mediocre, but it can go and call Gemini and do a whole bunch of crazy stuff.
17:26
of crazy stuff. you you start running into like will someone build an open claw app or something like how much of Apple's AI strategy will wind up being vended into the third party ecosystem which has served them so well for so
17:42
long they've sort of turned their back on it they locked down Apple Vision Pro a little bit more there was a there was way less uptake there and and there's a ton of risk because if I develop like a free iOS app that and incurs like a ton of Gemini tokens and ton of charges. How
17:58
How do those get passed through?
18:01
Is Apple just biting the bullet on it?
18:03
But there's something interesting there where where turning app developers loose to to build software that takes advantage not just of local LLM capabilities, but Gemini under the hood uh and and sort of wrap it up in a neat bow that is, you know, available to the consumer could be could be very cool.
18:23
Anyway, the big question that I had and I will get into the essay was uh so Apple's unaffected by capex costs, but they've also with this release been unaffected by memory costs and the RAM magdon.
18:35
So I will I will take you through how I dug into the question of memory pricing at Apple.
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19:00
That's a good sound effect. I like that one. I have one, too.
19:02
[screaming] [laughter] >> Surprise.
19:08
>> Can't believe you haven't used that yet. >> I I know.
19:09
No, no, because I was so burned by the last time I got access to the soundboard and I went too crazy.
19:13
So, there was one one show where me and Jordy both had full soundboard access, all of the same sound cues, >> one single show.
19:23
>> And it was truly a disaster.
19:26
>> What's the What's the metaphor from Greek mythology?
19:28
It was the It was Pandora's box for me.
19:30
Like, once I opened it, I could not resist and I became addicted and I was pushing the thing very much and it just didn't work.
19:38
So, we were like, "No, let's have Jordy play the soundboard.
19:40
I'll I'll do other stuff."
19:43
the the issue for me as a as a soundboard artist is >> Yes.
19:47
>> when I'm not doing the show. Yes.
19:49
[laughter] Hang out when I'm hanging out on the weekend. Yes.
19:52
>> I'm just thinking >> Yes.
19:53
>> I'm just I'm if somebody says something like we're at dinner. >> Yeah.
19:57
>> I'm thinking about the sound effect. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
20:00
>> I was I was hanging out with you and you said something crazy and I wanted to just be like [laughter] >> and so I opened up my phone.
20:05
I went to YouTube and I pulled up that sound and played it.
20:09
But then I had to turn on my volume and it took me way too long and the joke had passed. But we have a solution.
20:14
Tyler Cosgrove over there has been working on a soundboard app that can go on your phone and you can have we should do a widget too so that it's just there on the home screen. Boop.
20:23
Your favorite your favorite soundboard cues. So uh expect that soon.
20:27
Anyway, let me tell you about app loving.
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20:36
users and grow your business today. So the the the question the question like like I get I get the strategy of Apple saying look we're good with Google handling the AI inference stuff they have GCP they have the TPU they got Demis who's got a book written about him by Sebastian Malibi he like like Deep
20:56
Mind is great we're working with them um so capex unaffected I understand that how are they not affected by memory prices Ramageddon has come for us all um and and and uh Ben Thompson of Stratekery and John Gruber of Daring Fireball actually had a bet about this and I hope I didn't misspell John Gruber's name. Um they had about they
21:16
Um they had about they had a bet about this.
21:18
They said whoever wins this bet gets a steak dinner.
21:19
A steak dinner was at stake and Ben Thompson lost.
21:24
John Gruber won because John Gruber said Apple always overcharges for RAM.
21:28
[laughter] getting a if you went to build a computer or a phone or laptop or you know iPad equivalent and you just went to retail getting an extra 128 uh gigs of memory or or a slight memory upgrade uh might cost you 30 bucks in the Apple ecosystem that's like $200.
21:47
So Apple has built in this uh this pricing buffer for a very very long time and and that buffer really saved them this year.
21:54
But there's there's a lot more to it.
21:55
So uh many companies are dealing with Ramageddon this year.
21:58
Uh, and some stats that are interesting.
22:01
DRAM prices rose 172% throughout 2025.
22:04
DDR5 spot prices have quadrupled since September of 2025.
22:12
Uh, Trend Force expects PCD RAM to roughly double in price just in Q1 of 2026 with LPDDR pricing seeing the steepest increases in history.
22:20
So every wafer that's allocated to an HBM stack, a high bandwidth memory stack for an Nvidia GPU, is literally a wafer denied to the LP DDR5X module of a mid-range smartphone or consumer laptop SSD.
22:34
So they are truly commodities.
22:37
They there's only so many of them and they can only go to one place or the other.
22:40
Apparently OpenAI's Stargate initiative alone could consume up to 40% of global DRAM output as it stands today.
22:49
And this is the problem because there's only three major companies in the memory category.
22:54
It's Samsung, SKH Highix, and Micron.
22:56
Uh together they control 95% of the global DRAM production.
23:02
>> Remember Micron has been trying to build a new facility in New York and six people basically blocked it.
23:09
>> Oh, I I we talked about that, but >> And the rumor The rumor is that it's like foreign funding. >> Oh, interesting.
23:15
>> Actually uh trying to uh hold Micron up, but >> Yeah. Yeah.
23:19
Uh I mean Micron has been very they've been a huge beneficiary of AI margins and higher prices.
23:24
Uh and they so much so that they've actually reallocated all of their capacity to AI and they pulled out of their uh consumer brand which is called Crucial.
23:33
So, if you ever tried to build a gaming PC, you probably found Crucial Ballistics, which was like this very aggressively XG Games branded like PC Gamer uh DDR memory, which was uh you know, >> like the monster energy of RAM. >> Exactly.
23:49
Couldn't have said it better myself.
23:51
[laughter] No, it really is like the the the branding on Crucial Ballistics is like insane.
23:56
Uh anyway, gamers will be rising up soon with monster energies in hand to uh to take the the the RAM by by force if they need to.
24:07
I already see memes about this all the time.
24:09
Uh I see these like the worst AI slop video you've ever seen, just absolute junk.
24:13
And then the caption will be like, "So this is why I can't afford RAM, you know, and or this is why RAM is $800 a stick or whatever."
24:23
And then on the flip side, people will say, uh, you know, occasionally there'll be a good AI slot video and people be like, "Okay, it's worth paying $800 for RAM because this is so good." Right? >> It goes both ways. >> It goes both ways.
24:33
But clearly people are feeling the the the the pinch.
24:34
Uh, but Apple fans will be sitting out the fight thanks to a few key moves from Apple that help them avoid disaster this year.
24:43
So, uh, one, Apple has long-term supply agreements that allow them to secure memory 12 to 24 months in advance.
24:50
They also benefit from vertical integration uh and custom silicon.
24:51
So instead of buying that consumergrade commodity DRAM modules that you see go into either gaming PCs or Nvidia GPUs for example uh they negotiate multi-year contracts directly with Samsung and SKHEX for custom LPDDR packages that meet Apple's exact specifications. And so I >> Yeah.
25:12
And so this is like RAM's always been cyclical. Yep.
25:15
And so it makes a lot of sense for Apple to set basically like lock up pricing.
25:19
Samsung's locking up the demand.
25:22
They they I I don't even think Samsung would have predicted this level of demand even 3 four years ago.
25:29
Otherwise, they may not have >> priced priced it in the way that they did.
25:32
>> Of course, >> uh the other thing that that uh maybe you get to is >> and Samsung's still making their default margin.
25:38
They're just like the opportunity cost is so high because we could we could reallocate.
25:42
The other thing is is they they probably have so much margin in the upsell that they could have some margin compression and still be >> so Apple at various times has had over a hundred billion in cash.
25:54
They currently have over 66 billion in cash.
25:57
Like they can take the hit there.
25:59
They can also just take a hit to their margins.
26:02
>> Every AI lab looking at that cash being like, Tim, I could really put that to you right now.
26:07
[laughter] like yeah they're the only hyperscaler that hasn't really shelled out to the tune of 10 20 30 billion into one of the frontier frontier labs. Maybe that changes. I don't know.
26:16
Somebody was throwing out like uh Apple should buy anthropic or or uh or Amazon should buy anthropic, but I think the price is too high at this point.
26:25
It's just too it's just getting away.
26:26
Um >> but uh so I I'm not I'm not a 100% sure about the how the manufacturing supply chain for memory works, but I believe that because Apple's specific requirements, it's harder for Samsung to just instantly reallocate uh uh product that's been already manufactured um in a way where Crucial Ballistics, if it's going into gaming PC, it's easier to reallocate those wafers.
26:52
So even if they didn't have those contracts, I think I think uh the the supply chain is a little bit stickier with Apple because they're vertically integrated.
26:59
Um and then yeah, of course they have the money to overpay.
27:02
Uh we talked about how that the the MacBook Neo is this pressure release valve.
27:07
So even if the memory does increase, they have this they have the cash buffer.
27:11
They also have the they're charging 200 bucks for something that costs 30.
27:15
If it goes to 60, they can just take a hit on margins buffer.
27:19
Then they have the contract buffer.
27:19
Then they also have this Neo where if the MacBook Pro goes up in price, the MacBook Pro buyer is probably less price sensitive.
27:28
They're like, "Yeah, you know, this year it was $4,000 instead of $3,000.
27:33
I'm buying it for business purposes.
27:35
It's not that big of a squeeze."
27:37
And then the price sensitive buyer says, "Yeah, you know what?
27:38
I'm not going to go for the $2,000 laptop.
27:41
I'm going to go for the $600 laptop this year."
27:43
And they're still in the Apple ecosystem.
27:44
Um, but my takeaway is like this is an incredible testament to the operational prowess of Apple uh to pull this off at this scale.
27:54
The Sony PlayStation 6 is allegedly going to be delayed until 2028 or 2029 because of rising memory costs.
28:01
They're going to wait it out because there are three players.
28:04
It's not just TSMC in this case.
28:06
um it does feel like there'll be more pricing competition and and there's more of a race to build capacity.
28:12
Whereas at TSMC, if they don't build the next FAB, they can just continually raise prices and and increase margins uh once the next contracts go up for renewal.
28:22
Whereas if if Samsung has a bunch of capacity and Micron doesn't, like Samsung wins.
28:28
And so there's more of this game theoretic like they got to they have to build.
28:33
And so I think a lot of people and Tyler was talking about this with me earlier like we we all expect this memory shortage to be uh a few years not more not like five or 10 years.
28:45
So if you push out the Sony PS6 to >> you not bullish 28. He's bullish.
28:51
>> No I'm very bullish but I I think yeah because because there's more players like I I think the the shortage will be uh >> say you're not AGI pelt.
28:56
What [laughter] do you mean?
28:59
It I mean there is a question about like if you truly go exponential forever and it just like okay yeah there's like you know trillions and trillions of dollars of of data centers being built.
29:09
It's like can even Samsung Micron SK highex keep up forever like can Yeah. No.
29:13
So it might we might be living in like a permanently higher price just because like it's a more valuable product like we get more economic might be different >> might be different.
29:22
Um also the Nintendo Switch 2 might go up in price next year.
29:27
It's really bad for for gamers.
29:27
Gamer gaming graphics cards are going up in price.
29:31
Nvidia is pulling out of gaming graphics cards or they're skipping a year.
29:34
So, it's mayhem for gamers.
29:34
Uh but long term, the competition between the memory manufacturers should stabilize prices.
29:39
Uh and uh but you know, just watching all the big companies that are not Apple get caught flatfooted is just crazy to watch because it's not like it's not like the folks at Nintendo or the folks at Sony are like, "Oh, yeah, first time manufacturing something."
29:54
Like if you told me that like the team behind the Rabbit R1 was like suffering from higher memory costs, I'd be like, "Yeah, like it's a new company, new product.
30:02
They haven't like Sony has been making PlayStations for decades and they still got caught flatfooted on this."
30:08
And a lot of that is a testament to the brand power that Apple has, the network effects, the the the the scale they built that they're in this position and still not getting squeezed even when other hyperscalers are getting squeezed on all sorts of stuff.
30:21
>> Tim Cook still underrated. He cooked. He has cooked.
30:24
And uh and yeah, the operational side of Apple is always it's just habitually underrated even in the face of like slight misses on features and products and uh and and marketing and oh this this ad didn't land.
30:35
Well, the business is still thriving and dealing with just crisis after crisis like the tariff should have been a major crisis, they got through it.
30:44
This memory ramageddon should have been a crisis, they got through it.
30:49
Uh, it's all been very, very good news for Apple.
30:51
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31:06
Um, Apple is exercising the Coast conjecture.
31:12
They're waiting for open source models to get better.
31:13
Applying pressure to Frontier Lab pricing, eg rejecting anthropic overtures.
31:18
Anthropic wanted more money from Apple.
31:20
They went with Google and Gemini.
31:23
This is from Saurin Larson who is an economist who I really respect.
31:27
Uh it may rather be that im it may rather be that impatient buyers have adverse selection revealing actually poor business positioning.
31:36
So uh he is uh he's he's he's identifying uh Apple's leverage in the system.
31:44
They're you know this consumer aggregator and they've been uh they've been doing very well.
31:47
Um Kyle Harrison says that quote we ran the math.
31:50
OpenAI is buying three to four times more memory than it could possibly need in the short term.
31:57
The most charitable explanation is aggressive forward positioning.
32:00
The less charitable one is that they're cornering the supply to kill ondevice AI before it starts.
32:05
Well, if the ondevice AI happens on Apple products, that doesn't seem like that real of a scenario, but it is uh it is an interesting thesis.
32:17
I think that uh across the frontier labs, everyone is just very AGI pelled.
32:23
They're seeing the the the increase in capabilities, but also the the these sort of like stacked exponentials.
32:32
Ben Thompson was explaining this today that when you went from LLMs to reasoning, the number of tokens, the number of compute required just to get a single answer went like, you know, 10x all of a sudden.
32:44
And and then we saw the same thing with coding agents where these long running tasks are are sort of like squaring the amount of compute and so you just keep stacking these things on and you just get more and more compute demand but you get more uh more economic output.
33:01
So it winds up being all worth it.
33:04
Uh when will the when will Apple release the iPhone?
33:07
The only other thing only other thing on the on OpenAI uh memory side is >> they plan to sell a lot of consumer devices. >> They they do.
33:18
Oh, so they might be buying it for that, right? >> Yeah.
33:21
So So we we don't really know, but >> uh but yeah, I think that uh obviously opening eyes kind of rolled back some of like that that $1. 2 trillion number.
33:28
Uh but seeing seeing the growth in demand just in this first couple months of the year starts to look like hey maybe maybe maybe he wasn't so crazy after all. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Totally.
33:44
Like the the the models are justifying the compute.
33:48
And I think that we talked about this yesterday a little bit with the orchestrators just this idea that uh you know where will the next 10x come from?
33:58
Well, it's probably from just running 10 instances of cloud code or codeex and and just firing off 10 times as much inference and and people are ready to do that.
34:08
They're you see it all the time on Twitter, people talking about how much inference they're they're doing.
34:12
Um, when will Apple release the iPhone 18?
34:18
Uh, Khi has before October at 35% before 2027 at uh at 34%.
34:22
What is the chance that they don't release it this year?
34:29
That would be probably zero.
34:29
And I think it is it is zero. So, uh, stay tuned.
34:34
Um, I'm sure Mark German will have good coverage on um on the next iPhone.
34:40
>> Let's get the Germinator back on. >> Yeah.
34:42
Well, well, I I I I wanted to invite John Gruber to talk about these, but uh Mark German, of course, is welcome at any time.
34:47
Uh, but we've we have yet to talk to uh John Gruber, and he has been covering Apple fantastically throughout his entire career.
34:54
So he would be an interesting gentleman to talk to.
34:57
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35:12
com submitted a new semiconductor fab construction plan for the southern Taiwan science park last week.
35:18
M >> the site is located on Tynon's Anding District adjacent to the F18 FAB >> and covers 15. 46 hectares.
35:31
They're doing more 2nmter production, the leading edge with eight hectares allocated for the production area and one hector for administrative facilities.
35:42
The project is expected for completion and production start in 2028 says semi analysis.
35:47
So, uh, we'll see what what happens in the actual capex guide from TSMC.
35:53
Ben Thompson has been very disappointed with where, uh, TSMC has been guiding on capex, but maybe this is a shift.
36:02
Uh, I wonder how much faster it will be to build another TSMC fab over there.
36:08
If they ramp production of this new facility before Arizona, if they if they eclipse and and and there's a flipping and and this gets to scale before Arizona, um it will reveal some very serious problems with America's uh building and permitting system, I would imagine, or maybe maybe talent pool.
36:26
Uh I would I would certainly hope that both uh that that Taiwan, I mean, this is their crown jewel.
36:32
They should they should get this up and running fairly quickly [clears throat] without many delays since they've done it before and they are heavily invested in TSMC.
36:39
Of course, >> more importantly, Wendy's US president post new video amid burger battle with McDonald's and Burger King. >> Let's see. Let's watch. Let's rate it.
36:50
>> Does he uh does he put >> Okay.
36:53
I like the way that he's holding it. You know, he's >> okay. Seems normal. >> Yeah. Wonderful. >> Kind of. >> That's a burger. This is good.
37:03
>> I like talking talking about food in his mouth. Okay. Yeah.
37:05
Going going back for a second.
37:08
>> You got to top it off. >> He's saying burger. He's not saying product. >> Product. >> There we go. >> Yeah. No hesitation. No hesitation. >> Wait.
37:19
What did he dip in the frosty? Was that bait?
37:21
What did he What did he do at the end there? >> Amazing.
37:26
>> He dips a French fry in the frosty. Whoa. Okay. >> Okay.
37:29
Doesn't call it a product.
37:29
No hesitation talking with the food in his mouth. >> Yeah. Yeah. That's bold. That's bold. >> Bold.
37:37
>> I'm giving this an eight out of 10.
37:39
>> If you scroll down, I like uh Colonel Sanders after seeing this just knowing.
37:43
>> Also also the way he kind of puts the fry in and quickly, you know, kind of pulls pulls the hand back. >> Yeah.
37:50
>> I I I It's got style points.
37:52
>> Dude, here's a good job.
37:52
If you're looking for a gig that will bring home the bacon, uh, apply for the job of CEO at McDonald's.
38:00
Apparently, the guy makes 18 million a year.
38:04
>> Wait, do they have an open job application?
38:06
>> No, but after this, it's entirely possible that that if you if you put on a masterful performance, chomping down, uh, you could make you could make a run. I don't know.
38:14
It is funny that there's just like one after another of CEOs.
38:16
Uh, this is probably good for all of them. I don't know. Uh, this is this is fun.
38:23
People are I want no jump cuts.
38:23
Somebody should have seen swall Somebody should be seen swallowing the food. Oh, >> okay.
38:32
>> People are people are analyzing >> that's somewhat somewhat fair.
38:34
>> Analyzing the details.
38:34
Let me tell you about Gemini 3. 1 Pro. Gemini 3.
38:36
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38:51
Uh Berber Jin came in and shared Alman defended open AAI's defense department contract in all hands yesterday calling the backlash quote really painful.
38:58
This was an example of a complex but the right decision with extremely difficult brand consequences and very negative PR for us in the short term.
39:06
for us in the short term. he told staff uh yeah I I still [clears throat] I still stand by that uh given given the events that have transpired in the world yeah >> since last week >> like being there to like meet meet the government >> feels like uh being on uh on the right
39:29
path >> it was just yeah it was just odd that uh the that like Google strategy was to not say anything do nothing win basically I I would think or or do nothing don't go up or down like uh Gemini just >> but but I don't think Gemini is involved in this contract. It's it's Grock. It's it's Grock. >> It's Grock.
39:51
>> Grock was the other one that that uh came in with the same term.
39:55
>> So Gemini doesn't have any relationship with the Department of War. I think they do.
39:58
I I I think I I thought that there was a there was >> I might be I might be they might I just don't think they were involved in this contract negotiation >> because I've seen Yeah, I've seen Palunteer like show that they have like three or four models that they sort of like mix together to get responses. I don't know.
40:13
Uh OpenAI announced its Defense Department deal on Friday, hours after the defense secretary Pete Hgsth designated rival Anthropica supply chain risk.
40:22
There's still a question as to whether or not that's going to go through.
40:25
So, uh, Khi has it at a 42.
40:25
8% chance and it hasn't really moved.
40:29
It's unclear if that's just like staying in tweet land and is like bluster or will there be something there or will will there I mean I have to imagine that at this point uh both the department of war and anthropic are talking to each other.
40:44
Do you have more information?
40:45
>> Uh yeah, Gemini does have deals with the DoD. Yeah.
40:48
So there was the 200 million one that was uh in July.
40:50
That was Anthropic was also in that one.
40:52
And then they did there was the recent like genai. mill.
40:55
Do you remember was tweeting about this? >> Oh, interesting.
40:59
>> Um but they're like involved in that too. >> Yeah.
41:01
But I I am what I'm so shocked by is how does AWS have an advantage in 2026 on Fed Ramp and like federal classified networks?
41:10
Like I get that it's like hard.
41:12
You have to do a lot of cyber security.
41:14
you have to really harden the servers.
41:16
But you would think that Microsoft and Google would have figured out how to fully support the deepest depths of the US government and get full approval before like like maybe Amazon would have gone first, but I would have thought that Microsoft and Google would be like a year or two behind.
41:36
And so you would see you would see Gemini and OpenAI like checking those boxes really fast.
41:41
Um but but I I don't I guess I guess AWS does have like a a material advantage there still.
41:46
Um >> Alman said that while he didn't regret signing a deal with the defense department, he wished he hadn't announced the decision so quickly, telling staff that it looked opportunistic and not united with the field.
41:58
And I think that's I I I think that's a good point.
41:59
Um I agree with him on that.
42:02
His remarks echoed a memo he shared with staff and on X Monday in which he said the deal looked opportunistic and sloppy.
42:06
A ground swell of AI researchers and the at the company and across Silicon Valley spent the past few days criticizing Altman and the company for what they saw as a capitulation to the Pentagon by essentially agreeing to a deal that allowed AI to be used in all lawful cases.
42:20
Um, and we will see where where where the laws go.
42:23
I' I've been digging a little bit more into like the rules around surveillance.
42:27
There's there's actually like a ton of them and it's a very nuanced thing and so it feels like it's hard to b to to bake it down into a single line but a a single line is what hits on social media for better or for worse. Yeah.
42:41
Um and so you can see a single line and be like that's amazing.
42:46
Uh it's exactly what I what I think it means and that and that could either mean good or bad. So very very tricky.
42:52
Uh Scott Bessant went on CNBC this morning and said, "No private company will ever dictate the terms of our national security anthropics attempts to push uh to push use clauses into their contracts with the United States government are unacceptable and their products will no longer be utilized by the US Treasury or any other government agency." So doubling down there.
43:09
Uh there was also a story in in Semaphore this morning from Reed.
43:14
He writes, "Anthropics investors don't have its back in its fight with the Pentagon."
43:21
>> This is very interesting.
43:21
anthropic may be standing its ground against the Pentagon, but the AI powerhouse is doing so with a noticeably quiet quarter.
43:25
Its own high-profile backers.
43:28
Despite the company's defiance, Silicon Valley's biggest players have remained silent.
43:32
In a recent meeting between Amazon CEO Andy Jasse and Pete Hagsth, the issue of anthropic came up, according to two people who were briefed on the encounter.
43:42
Amazon has invested billions in the startup, a crucial part of Amazon's custom chip strategy as the largest consumer of the company's Tranium AI chips.
43:49
and HEGs has been threatening to design designate anthropic a supply chain risk which would make it impossible for many of the military suppliers to do business with the company.
43:59
Jasse Demurred declining to take anthropic side, the people said. Uh he wasn't alone.
44:06
Despite anthropic CEO Daram's very vocal opposition to the Pentagon's demands and rival OpenAI Sam Alman's running commentary on the matter, a number of anthropic investors have remained silent.
44:15
One investor told Semaphore that speaking up might further inflame things with the admin and that they were still holding out hope the issue could be resolved.
44:23
Another said that Anthropic requested they say nothing.
44:27
Anthropic and Amazon declined to comment.
44:29
The Pentagon didn't immediately respond to a request for comment as well.
44:35
>> The most important thing here is that we get Pete Hagsth on Twitch.
44:39
Amazon Andy Jasse is sitting down with Pete Hagsth. Haggath likes Twitter. He likes X.
44:44
Get him live streaming those press conferences. Put them on Twitch. That's the goal here. >> Go direct.
44:52
>> Yeah, we we'll we'll we'll talkirect Ball about the back and forth.
44:54
Uh Noah Smith summed it up honestly in the Ben Thompson versus Dean Ball debate.
44:58
We have Dean Ball on the show at noon. I think Ben is right. Noah agrees with Ben.
45:05
There was just no way or in any nation state in there was no way America or any nation state was ever going to let private companies remain in total control of the most powerful weapon ever invented.
45:15
Uh this is a big question about like where are we like uh um we like like are are we there yet?
45:21
Like is this the most powerful weapon ever invented?
45:26
that feels like this feels very much like uh like a training run for something that's coming in the future and it's an important conversation but we're not necessarily there yet. Um so we'll see.
45:35
Dean Ball replied he said also Dean versus Ben is wild and an honor for me as a guy who's been reading Ben since the days of Android will not commodify iOS and use Ben as a core inspiration for my own project today even though I disagree with Ben here.
45:48
You will hear much more from me on this soon on a certain podcast.
45:52
I hope he's referring to TBPN.
45:54
Uh but the thing is Ben is anti-regulation and does not own the consequences of state seizure of AI. Neither do you.
46:00
There was another uh post by Dean Ball.
46:02
I want to get him to uh to unpack a little bit more.
46:04
He said uh it is so clear that the important fissure in AI politics is not now right now is not liberal versus conservative, Democrat versus Republican, EAC versus EA or safety versus anti-safety, but instead takes advanced AI seriously as a concept versus does not take advanced AI seriously.
46:27
And why this is so interesting to me is because it feels like both Dean and Ben are in the takes advanced AI seriously as a concept camp.
46:39
Um so we'll see uh if he agrees with my understanding of both of theirs positions.
46:44
um because it seems like they both are in the same camp of takes advanced AI seriously, but then they disagree about the level of pressure that the government should place on a private corporation.
46:56
And so um very very interested into in in digging into that.
47:02
Uh let me tell you about Figma.
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47:15
Um, let's move on to Will Manitis.
47:17
He has also been chiming in on Darius statements.
47:22
>> There's a strange there's a set of strange little fictions that tech has chosen to believe as some sort of basis set for the perceived morality of their work.
47:29
Chief amongst these is the idea that the legal system doesn't exist and when it does it it is it's a precise mechanistic process.
47:36
Tech is a positive sum in a community, which means you pretend that the standard weapons that exist to the modern corporation, coercive litigation, IP blocking and trolling, standard white shoe law firm stuff, >> really taking shots at white shoe lawyers, >> is negative sum or something bad we don't do here.
47:55
This leads to a weirdly formalist view of the legal process that we must avoid it at all cost.
47:58
But if we must engage in it, then it's a fair and repeatable process that must necessarily yield, if not the truth, then at least the same outcome repeatedly and provably.
48:09
It's this instinct that gives you anthropics odd contract formalism.
48:14
This is how you end up thinking your best move is to show your cards at the forefront and thinking you've won the hand.
48:19
There's incredible potential for outperformance available to you for betraying any of these silly norms that tech uses to feel good about itself.
48:26
The modern corporation must avail itself of all possible edge and holy wars require holy weapons. So get busy.
48:37
>> The uh the the the idea that sticks with me here is that uh if we engage in it then it's fair and a repeatable process.
48:45
I talked to someone who was uh who was who was doing something with the legal system and he said that like [snorts] on this particular issue uh it was a true like leftright issue like uh a liberal judge would always site on one side of the case and a conservative judge would always site on the other side of the case.
49:04
So, no matter how well he argued, it came down to did his case get a liberal judge or a conservative judge.
49:13
And I was like, "Oh, well, like that seems simple."
49:14
Like, like get a judge that's aligned with your company and your position.
49:18
Uh, and he was like, "Yeah, bad news.
49:20
The way they decide which judge I get is they literally spin a physical wheel."
49:25
[laughter] And I was like, "And so there's nothing you can do?"
49:29
He's like, "Yeah, no, like it it is secure.
49:30
It's like a real process."
49:30
And like that's by design.
49:32
like some things are better left in the democratic process to inject a little random randomness so that you can't put your finger on the wheel and pick the right judge and get exactly what you want.
49:44
Like that's not possible.
49:44
Uh but it it is it is potentially like the least bad system, but still very stochcastic and still very random.
49:52
And so you wind up in this weird situation where things are not necessarily uh repeatable.
49:59
repeatable is the interesting thing that you that that you can you can go into an engagement uh in a in a legal context and wind up with a different scenario just somewhat randomly and and that is almost by design.
50:10
Um let me tell you about turbo puffer serverless vector and full text search built from first principles on object storage fast 10x cheaper and extremely scalable.
50:20
Uh Daario was at the mic uh the Morgan Stanley tech media and technology conference today and was dropping bombs.
50:31
Uh on defense he said we believe in defending America.
50:33
Anthropic has been working with the national security community for two years.
50:37
We are the most lean forward.
50:38
On AI acceleration he says we do not see hitting a wall this year.
50:44
We'll have a radical acceleration that surprises everyone.
50:46
Exponentials catch people offguard.
50:48
We are at the precipice of something incredible.
50:50
we need [clears throat] to manage it the right way.
50:53
I'm very interested to hear like the this idea that he thinks we're at the end of the exponential.
51:00
I feel like most technological processes uh Carpathy was saying this maybe he was saying like like AI is a continuation of of you know previous technological revolutions right >> that was why he said uh we're not going to see like massive growth in GDP.
51:14
I think that was his reasoning. Yeah.
51:16
It's just kind of the same process. >> Internet.
51:20
>> You saw computers, then you saw internet, then AI. It's the same curve. >> Yeah. I It's very interesting.
51:23
I mean, there there are people that like he's saying there like we don't see hitting a wall this year.
51:28
But it begs the question like do you think that there's going to be a plateau?
51:32
Because at a certain point like you you you you plot out the AI revenues and you get to something that's larger than GDP and the GDP has to move in order to grow.
51:40
Like like what happens at the end state?
51:42
What does the end state look like?
51:44
I feel like uh we got to talk about this.
51:46
[laughter] Me and me and Tyler were were talking about the the just the general like AI safety discourse on both sides always ends with people just saying like we got to talk about this.
51:58
[laughter] >> No one has any answer, you know.
52:00
We got to figure this out, guys.
52:02
We all got we got to talk.
52:04
>> We got to talk to each other. [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah.
52:06
No one's like no one's like I have a clear plan. I think it'll work.
52:11
You might disagree with me, but this is my plan and this is what we're going to do. and here are the steps.
52:14
And like I think this gets us the good the good outcome.
52:17
Everyone's everyone's just like I don't know.
52:19
[laughter] It's very very weird.
52:20
It just from a comm's perspective, it's very weird.
52:23
>> I mean I feel like that's how decisions get made in companies.
52:24
Like if if a decision is really obvious, you can handle it over text.
52:28
If you if it's not, it's like let's let's discuss live. >> Yeah.
52:33
But I I mean you talk to a lot of companies about [snorts] about their plans and and I mean the good companies can think in decades and and and think like okay we're going to do this and then we're going to make a I mean the original Tesla plan.
52:44
We're going to make a sports car and then we're going to make a sedan and then we're going to make a cheaper car and like that's the plan and and there was no like oh we got to talk about this.
52:53
[laughter] It was like it's like yeah we're going to make a bunch of cars and then we're going to make more factories to make more cars and like this is the plan.
52:59
Uh we're like we're just not we're just not really seeing that from from from lab leaders at the moment.
53:04
Um but still plenty of optimism.
53:07
Uh there the the the square packing circle packing discourse has hit the timeline. I absolutely love this.
53:15
First let me tell you about Shopify.
53:16
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53:22
Um, so John Bidwell in 1997 found a more optimal way to fit 17 squares into a larger square.
53:35
The smallest square that contain all 17 looks like an absolutely deranged solution.
53:40
Everyone would expect that it's just a nice even grid. You take you add one.
53:45
But if you pack them in this way, you get 17 squares of absolute chaos.
53:51
uh on the next on the next slide.
53:54
Um and and someone made a waffle maker.
53:57
Someone made a waffle maker that optimally packs 17 squares into um [cough and clears throat] into the squares of the waffle.
54:06
>> You will get mocked at breakfast.
54:08
>> You will get mocked by anyone except a mathematician, I suppose.
54:12
Kevin says, "For years, society was limited to only 16 syrup squares per waffle, but with recent combinatorial optimization breakthroughs.
54:20
Our research department has achieved previously unheard of densities of waffle syrup." It's great, great news.
54:29
Uh very very funny that uh this came through.
54:32
And then someone uh in the previous post was posting the the universe is not real, dude. This is ridiculous.
54:38
I'm going to fight God because it looks uh very crazy to pack uh an arbitrary of number of squares within within another square.
54:49
But uh that's >> someone should do this for cubicles in an office.
54:53
[snorts] >> Can you imagine if you're in the one cubicle that's slightly offkilter and everyone's like, "Look, dude, like you get you have the same amount of space as everybody else."
55:04
and you're like, "Yeah, but I'm at a 37 degree angle to the wall and it's driving me insane."
55:08
Uh, that would be very, very odd.
55:10
Um, >> uh, did you see researchers at the University of Southern Denmark developed a limbless soft robot that crawls using airfilled chambers and Kirigami inspired flaps.
55:23
You're going to love this. >> I hate it.
55:26
>> You're going to love it.
55:27
>> I am the Indiana Jones of tech podcasting. I hate snakes.
55:29
I hate I absolutely hate snakes. Very very weird.
55:34
It's over boys says autism capital.
55:34
Um very weird but uh you know exciting that people are working on robotics and I'm sure there's some some odd application.
55:44
>> Yeah I'm sure there's no like ultra nefarious use cases for something like this.
55:50
>> We're going subterranean and already working on it. What do you got Tyler?
55:53
>> These look like uh these would be good for like >> for what? >> Medical.
55:57
You make it really small. Yeah.
55:59
That's also like >> Yeah.
56:00
Would you volunteer to as a trial subject?
56:03
I think you should go first if you think if you think they're so good.
56:07
>> I think you should go first.
56:09
>> Um, someone launched siggies.
56:09
app, the most comprehensive archive of Chinese cigarettes to exist on the Western internet.
56:16
Discover new packs in their history.
56:18
Track favorites and and packs you already tried. Share your collection.
56:22
Uh, the Chinese cigarette industry is absolutely fascinating.
56:25
Um it I think it makes like hundreds of billions of dollars in profit for the government.
56:33
Um the the the main cigarette company is nationalized. Oh wow.
56:38
>> And so they make they make an absolute ton of money.
56:40
They fund their military with it. Uh it's a fascinating. >> Yeah. Really lovely website.
56:44
We we really got to go into the history of nationalization because uh the nationalization and privatization uh is interesting all over the point all over the place.
56:56
I looked into nuclear weapons and how those were nationalized.
57:00
Uh fascinating sort of like hybrid public private partnerships with a lot of consultants in the private sector and then obviously the the defense primes making the the missiles the ICBMs but not the warheads.
57:11
Um but uh in the tobacco industry there are some fascinating examples of countries that start cigarette manufacturing businesses uh develop large sort of deeper supply chain operations and then privatize those and then that when they sell that asset to a western uh tobacco firm there's sort of like a cash windfall for the government that can be very beneficial.
57:36
They can go build roads with the money uh or I don't know cut people's taxes.
57:39
Um but but there's the the other side of okay a company is is getting large and then it gets nationalized. But uh plenty.
57:45
Are there any other uh industries that stuck out to you, Tyler, as you were >> I mean there's like I'm still like kind of looking there's so many like weird like ways to to view nationalization though cuz like so at least in the US like historically it's been mostly basically during wartime or if like a really important company is is facing like huge crisis, right?
58:03
So like 2008 like I think GM at one point government >> Yeah.
58:08
the Treasury owned like 60% of of GM. Yeah.
58:11
Um, so, so there's all like interesting >> Fanny May and Freddy Mack the >> but even like if you think about tobacco in the US like almost like having super strong taxes is like almost like kind of a form of nationalization, right?
58:23
Where you're basically taking like a ton of the profits away. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
58:27
I mean that that was always the push back of of uh you know if if there's runaway profits by the AI companies uh just you know instead of nationalizing them in that in that scenario you can just tax them and then redistribute the >> profit.
58:40
There's like this real spectrum, right?
58:41
Cuz like if you think of like Intel, >> so the government now owns like it's like 10% of Intel, right?
58:46
>> So like but what does that actually mean for like running Intel? Like do they have a say?
58:50
Like right now >> they're not supposed to. Maybe that changes.
58:53
It's like this this interesting spectrum. >> Yeah, totally. Totally.
58:58
>> Um [clears throat] uh Anthropic is on track to generate annual revenue of almost 20 billion, a projection based on current performance, more than doubling its run rate. This is from Bloomberg.
59:08
And Zero Hedge says, "Unpreed damage control, leak after leak. Just how bad is it?"
59:12
And Matt Slotnik says, "The leak is bad, sir. Really bad.
59:14
Now everyone knows we're the fastest growing software company of all time.
59:19
We must put a stop to this."
59:21
I think what Zero Hedge was getting at was that um the reason you leak uh you know strong economic performances is is to uh you know allay concerns around you know pressure from the government supply chain risk because the revenue would not be growing if like companies were pulling out because they're so worried about the supply chain risk that they got to they got to move on so fast.
59:42
But uh still funny >> clearly adoption is out gripping [clears throat] any kind of pullback from Yeah.
59:49
from you know the department of treasury and and vary other various other kind of organizations in the government. >> Yeah.
59:56
Uh Ara Karazzian over at ramp has some extra data.
59:59
He said most people in tech know anthropic commands the majority of API spend by US businesses.
1:00:05
As of January anthropic took 50% of spend on enterprise AI subscriptions too.
1:00:10
OpenAI still leads on business count but the biggest spenders go to Anthropic all from ramp data.
1:00:13
And Ben Thompson had some extra context here uh about the data, but I was I was actually uh uh DMing with Ara last night and uh it is fascinating what's happening.
1:00:27
uh the market is so so big that everything is growing and you see these charts and you're like it's over for this company, it's over for Curser and then Curser puts up two billion and there's just more and more growth that's happening because of the diffusion problem and and and the fact that uh companies onboard and just more and more companies are onboarding to AI tools every day.
1:00:50
Uh Ben Thompson said there are some caveats to the ramp data.
1:00:54
It only includes OpenAI anthropic, not Azure C-pilot or Google Cloud.
1:00:58
Gemini ramp is also probably tilted more towards startups and smaller companies and larger enterprises.
1:01:02
That noted, it certainly matches the vibes anthropic established that code that coding foothold and has been on an absolute tear over the last six months in particular in terms of not just its model capabilities, but also cloud code and the overall sense that it is in the lead and enterprise CTO are a smaller and more easily reachable set of customers than consumers at large.
1:01:23
Meanwhile, an AI subscription business model has always been more compelling for the enterprise than for the consumer space for the same reason that productivity apps always end up uh as enterprise products, not consumer ones.
1:01:36
Uh there's no consumer CRM, for example.
1:01:38
[snorts] Enterprise actually enterprises actually value productivity and are willing to pay for it.
1:01:42
Consumers don't and won't, which is why the business model makes sense for the consumer space, at least at scale, is advertising.
1:01:49
So he's once again ad pilled.
1:01:52
Um what else is in the in the news?
1:01:56
>> Uh Eddie [clears throat] Endowment Eddie put this into context.
1:01:58
Even in Q4 of 2021 public sess quarterly net new ARR peaked at 2. 6 billion.
1:02:06
>> Anthropic has added nearly 11 billion in early 2026.
1:02:08
Yeah, this is >> of course is like uh run rate, not actual >> ARR necessarily, but still uh absolutely shocking. >> Yeah.
1:02:20
>> Uh Tyler said for those kind of [clears throat] traffic track at home, Anthropic just added a palunteer in revenue in the month of February alone.
1:02:29
>> Yeah, pretty unprecedented.
1:02:32
>> Uh Howard Lindon said, "Anthropic pulled off the rare quadruple lindy. Great product. People pay for it.
1:02:37
people love it and promote it even though they pay.
1:02:40
And the people like Daros Daario's handling of government.
1:02:42
Next up, the people tear Daario down.
1:02:44
There is this interesting like tall poppy syndrome in Silicon Valley a little bit where uh like whoever's at the top uh gets like you know triple glazed and then it needs to be torn down a little bit.
1:02:55
So we we we'll see where all this goes.
1:02:57
But um [clears throat] >> putting putting AI growth in the context of the shoe market. Yes.
1:03:03
Darren Rovel, [clears throat] former guest of the show, uh, shares that New Balance is up almost 20% year-over-year at 19%, Adidas 13, Lululemon nine.
1:03:15
>> Lululemon's doing well.
1:03:16
>> And then every other brand here in the negative, Puma at - 8%, Under Armour - 9.
1:03:23
4, Nike - 10%, and Jordan brand >> down 16%.
1:03:26
Uh, really insane >> to see such a huge line.
1:03:31
if he likes the sneaker era, the [clears throat] era, the Jordan era is uh over for now.
1:03:41
>> Is this more of like changing in taste that New Balance and Adidas are growing and Nike is not?
1:03:45
Because if if they were all if all of these like major household name brands were trading down, I would say like, oh, this is like the Teeu effect.
1:03:53
This is the white label effect.
1:03:54
This is the the Alberts, the D, like just more competition from newer brands, uh, challenger brands.
1:04:00
But it seems like there's more of just like a reallocation from Nike to New Balance and Adidas.
1:04:07
Like Adidas might just be on a on a brand tear doing some good advertising.
1:04:11
But um New [clears throat] Balance has been killing it with their positioning.
1:04:14
Interesting to see total revenue as well.
1:04:16
Uh Nike is huge, 46 billion. Adidas is down at 26. Lululemon's at 10.
1:04:23
Lululemon has done has done really really well.
1:04:25
New Balance, uh they're bigger than New Balance.
1:04:26
Um anyway, uh my portfolio every day at the opening bell looks like D-Day says Human.
1:04:36
This is an absolute disaster. It really is so crazy.
1:04:39
I was trying to explain yesterday to a friend like how the market I was like, "You're probably getting destroyed, right?"
1:04:45
And he was like, "Yeah, it's terrible."
1:04:46
And I was like, "Well, >> is this your retail investor friend?" >> Yes.
1:04:51
It might shock you to learn that the market overall is like half of the year.
1:04:55
Um it's uh it's an absolute tail.
1:04:58
Korean stocks are crashing.
1:04:58
The Cosby index, the Korean stock exchange is down 10%.
1:05:04
Korean stocks are are crashing, says Joe Weisenthal.
1:05:07
Uh the South Korean stock market fell over 8% and triggered a circuit breaker.
1:05:12
Um Jim Kramer said, "Beware of South Korean spill over to our markets.
1:05:16
WDC, STX, SNDK, MU, all still vulnerable."
1:05:21
So there's lots of companies that are at risk.
1:05:23
We will dig into uh the South Korean stock market collapse soon, but we have our next guest in the reream waiting room.
1:05:30
First, let me tell you about Century.
1:05:32
Century shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast.
1:05:37
That's why 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working.
1:05:41
And without further ado, let's bring in Dean Ball from the Reream Waiting Room. Dean, how are you doing? >> Good to see you. >> Good. How are you all? >> We're fantastic.
1:05:49
Uh I've been enjoying your coverage.
1:05:52
We had Ben Thompson on the show Monday.
1:05:54
Uh it's very funny that this debate is phrased as the ball versus Thompson debate because uh it feels like you agree on way more than you disagree on.
1:06:04
But I would love for you to sort of set the table for us and just kind of give us your run of like what actually happened because there are a lot of things that have been said but not enacted.
1:06:16
There's been bunches back and forth.
1:06:18
So what's the what's the what are the rules of the road?
1:06:21
What are the what are the the the table of facts that you think like are the most reliable here?
1:06:28
>> First of all, there are very few people I respect more than Ben Thompson and who have inspired me more than Ben Thompson.
1:06:33
So, yeah, I think we agree on the vast majority of of tech policy issues and other tech stuff.
1:06:37
Um, yeah, I mean, I think basically what's going on here is that, you know, there's a dispute about a contract, right? And that's fine.
1:06:43
And grown-ups can have disputes about concept about contracts and they cannot come to terms of business and then they don't sign the contract or they cancel the contract and that's fine.
1:06:51
The problem here is the punishment.
1:06:52
The problem here is that the government is saying if you don't do business with us uh we'll destroy your company or we'll threaten to and that just can't be the way that America works. >> Yeah.
1:07:03
>> Yeah. Um and I don't really like you know there are people who say including I think you know this was an argument that Ben made that well what should anthropic have expected you know what should they have expected that the way they talk about AI being so powerful how could they not expect the government to
1:07:17
to bully them and n quasinationalize them in these ways >> and my view is like well no what we should do is have like modest technocratic regulation so that we can avoid these sort of extreme outcomes of either like yeah total decentralization total anarchy or like bull bullshism, right? Like we can avoid that. It's Like we can avoid that. It's called capitalism.
1:07:38
It's called like the system that we have now.
1:07:39
And I've spent the last two years being confused as to why we don't try to do that. >> Mhm. So in terms of >> Okay. Okay.
1:07:46
So I guess so far Anthropic has not been labeled a supply chain risk. >> Yeah.
1:07:55
officially is your belief that the Department of War is just really busy right now for obvious reasons and they haven't gotten around to it yet or do you think that it's coming and and that's why uh you know like where where do we actually go from here? >> I truly don't know.
1:08:13
I operate under the assumption so War Secretary Pete Heights said last Friday that they're going to do it >> um and they're going to do an extremely expansive version of it.
1:08:23
So, I operate under the assumption that he's um not lying about that.
1:08:27
I basically take him at his word.
1:08:29
Uh it'll happen eventually, but I don't know.
1:08:31
>> Do you think he uh I mean I I I I know that there was some debate over the shape of supply chain risk, whether that means uh you have a partnership with Amazon, Amazon works with the government.
1:08:43
You can't work with Amazon at all or Amazon can't use your software specifically, your model specifically on government contracts.
1:08:50
Do you have any idea of where [clears throat] the clarity might be found there?
1:08:56
>> Well, so in terms of what the supply chain risk designation actually allows, my reading of the law is that it would be only in the fulfillment of the of the government contract and not more broadly.
1:09:08
But >> there's a lot of things.
1:09:10
First of all, you could just write it more broadly and try to fight it in court and see what happens, right? And who knows, right?
1:09:14
Um you could also jawbone, right?
1:09:17
You could you could have the president call Amazon and say, "Hey, we don't think you should be working with these guys." Right.
1:09:23
Very hard to sue about that because that's not a policy action.
1:09:28
>> Um, and there's also [clears throat] >> a very, very large range of other things that the federal government could do if it wanted to, if it wanted to really harass, which, you know, the irony of this is that we all know this because of what happened to Elon's companies during the Biden administration.
1:09:44
>> Um, I objected to that then and I object to this now.
1:09:46
Uh yeah, unpack a little bit of that history. Take us through it.
1:09:51
>> Yeah, [clears throat] so um you know, basically Elon being kind of a political enemy of the of the Democrats, the Biden administration brought on a very large number of uh of investigations, regulatory actions, FCC, DOJ, um uh a lot of different other things.
1:10:09
I think there there's a chart somewhere and it's like it's like 12 to 20 things, you know, it's a huge number of different things that they brought and each one of those is going to entail millions of dollars in compliance costs and legal costs for these companies.
1:10:21
So, it's non-trivial amounts of harassment that's going on and I again I think we shouldn't do that kind of thing. >> Sure.
1:10:29
Is is this uh broadly under the umbrella of like lawfare? >> Yeah. >> Okay.
1:10:34
Um, walk me through uh this this idea of uh the fissure in AI politics right now is not liberal or conservative, Republican versus Democrat, EAC versus EA, safety versus anti-safety, but instead takes AI takes advanced AI uh seriously as a concept versus does not take advanced AI seriously as a concept.
1:10:55
It feels like you and Ben Thompson both are taking AI seriously as a concept.
1:11:00
Does that map with your reading on his arguments, your arguments?
1:11:05
It feels like there's just a different downstream understanding of how this plays out in a world where advanced AI is a serious concept to grapple with different than making pencils. >> Yeah. Right.
1:11:20
Like I mean I think the the other way to put this would be like do you think that Daario Amade and Anthropic are directionally and the other Frontier Labs is worth noting are directionally right about where this is going or do you think that um you think they're not and um and also not just do you think they are but do you really take that seriously?
1:11:38
Do you own the consequences of believing that >> these guys could really be correct?
1:11:43
And I think a a consistent theme of my writing over the last year especially has been kind of being confused that there's people who just do not take they might say that like oh AI is progressing very quickly but they don't actually like their downstream assumptions and like conclusions about what we should do don't seem to to to sort of reflect that.
1:12:07
It's very hard it's a very hard thing to do but yeah that would be like my broad take.
1:12:10
So this is this is where I I I start to get confused because if I take advanced AI seriously.
1:12:15
I do then it feels like nuclear weapon level technology in a few years.
1:12:21
Maybe it's five, maybe it's two.
1:12:23
But that leads me more into the Ben Thompson camp where I say, well, of course there's going to be a a dramatic showdown between the US government and the private company that has invented something akin to nuclear weapons.
1:12:40
And so walk me through how you are thinking of you know if we're developing new new you know powerful technology what how should the government actually interact with that aside from like the lawfare in the short term like what's the long-term solution?
1:12:58
Yeah, I mean the long-term solution, I think, is probably going to be a hybrid system where there just is regulation of these frontier labs.
1:13:06
Uh, and there is government oversight of them, but it's just like it's like, you know, JP Morgan is a private entity that lobbies against government policy all the time, right?
1:13:17
They're a totally independent actor of the government and yet they're also deeply intertwined with the government.
1:13:22
I'm not saying that we should regulate AI companies like banks. I hope not.
1:13:23
AI companies like banks. I hope not. But I'm saying that like you know technocratic regulation exists in you know capitalist republics and it's not communism and we didn't like nationalize the banks right >> um so it would be my proposal would be to sort of take stepby-step approaches uh to solving actual problems not just doing regulation for its own sake but really trying to shape this so that it
1:13:49
isn't some sort of violent or or not literally violent but some sort of conflict and instead is you know a gradual development of like yeah this is how the government and the public ultimately achieve oversight of these labs because
1:14:01
I would agree that um if we are going to this place of like near-term super intelligence or something >> that isn't going to just exist in an unregulated fashion that's kind of been my point for you know for a year and a half now. >> Yeah. So what's the gap between >> Yeah.
1:14:13
So what's the gap between regulation and nationalization?
1:14:14
Because at a certain point, if we're in the nuke analogy, it feels like the government takes that and then they get to decide where they they point those nukes.
1:14:23
And and as I was reflecting on the uh the creation of the the atomic bomb, I was sort of left like optimistic about the American project and optimistic about the way that played out.
1:14:40
I don't know if you have a different side, but I feel like the government did get control of nuclear weapons.
1:14:45
There hasn't been a nuclear war.
1:14:47
Uh, and the whole concept of like the person that you're voting for will have their they'll have the nuclear football.
1:14:54
They'll have their finger on the button. Do you trust them?
1:14:58
That is an animating force in our electoral process.
1:15:00
Whether you like the current administration or the previous administration, whether you trust them or not, but like Americans vote on that question every four years.
1:15:08
And I think that that's a good system. I I I I like that. >> Mhm. 100%.
1:15:15
I think that the nuclear bomb analogy starts to break down. Okay.
1:15:19
But one thing I'd say about about nuclear weapons is that it's true that nuclear weapons, you know, we we got that and that went I think basically pretty okay as far as these things go, but you know what we didn't really get is nuclear energy to the nearly to the extent that we could have.
1:15:34
>> Completely agree with you on this. Yes. Continue. >> Right.
1:15:37
And so that created this single regulatory sort of point of failure.
1:15:42
Single points of failure are often problematic in complex system engineering.
1:15:45
So um you know what do you what do you do?
1:15:48
Well you know maybe maybe we shouldn't have done it.
1:15:50
You know maybe we should maybe the government effect on the sort of the equivalent of the consumer side the economic benefits.
1:15:56
We didn't really get those as much as we could have.
1:15:58
So that would be one thing but the other thing is that even nuclear energy you know >> it's not directly useful to you.
1:16:03
It is not nuclear energy is not like you are not personally going to express your liberty, >> exercise your liberty through uh nuclear energy or nuclear bombs, but you will with artificial super intelligence and you certainly will with today's coding agents, right?
1:16:22
>> And so the question is like should the government be able to own that?
1:16:25
And my view is that without really substantial guard rails um that is just almost certain to devolve into a profound act of tyranny.
1:16:37
And so I think that having the companies separate and apart from the government but still overseen by the public through regulation that is kind of like my view as to what is ideal.
1:16:45
But the problem is that saying that view um a it's really hard to get that right.
1:16:51
Regulation is tough to get right.
1:16:53
You want to get it exactly right.
1:16:54
And it's possible that all my ideas are terrible and they're, you know, they're all going to go to right? That's totally possible.
1:16:59
But what you want to do is you want to um yeah, you you want to you want to at least try try to get that right.
1:17:04
The problem is that that has been that view has been characterized very often as sort of supporting regulatory capture.
1:17:12
>> Um so it's like you know what did anthropic expect the way they talked about these models?
1:17:16
Well, maybe they expected for like California's FB53 to pass and for there to be like modest technocratic light touch regulation that only affects the Frontier Labs and like I don't think that's lobbying for regulatory capture.
1:17:26
I think that's actually just the prudent thing to do.
1:17:30
>> Um even if I don't agree with every regulatory impulse that Anthropic has, I think that in broad strokes that's the play. >> Yeah.
1:17:36
How do you Oh, sorry Jordy, you go. >> Yeah.
1:17:38
I wanted to ask like how how much do you think information asymmetry played into the dynamic of the negotiation and the results?
1:17:45
I mean, you have the Department of War who presumably everyone on that side has some idea that we're about to enter a conflict and Friday comes around.
1:17:53
The Department of War knows they're hours away from a strike.
1:17:59
Daario according to Emil like isn't kind of engaging with him and out of that maybe the admin says hey this is not a partner that we can rely on and we don't want other groups in the government to be relying on it as well and it just kind of blows up. >> Yeah.
1:18:20
I mean so I think some of this is about personality some of this seems like it's about personality clashes.
1:18:26
Some of it's about politics undoubtedly.
1:18:28
I think some of it is also about principle though, right?
1:18:29
Like and I think the DoD is not crazy at all.
1:18:31
Like my my problem here has never been with the DoD's policy principles here.
1:18:38
They're saying anthropic can't put usage restrictions that look like public policy cuz we set public.
1:18:42
Dario Amade doesn't decide when autonomous lethal weapons are ready for prime time. We do.
1:18:48
And I think they're 100% right about that.
1:18:50
But the solution to that problem is you you don't try to destroy the business of anthropic.
1:18:55
You tell Daario no thanks to the business.
1:18:56
Um >> and uh you move on and you find somebody else who will who will do business, >> which is what Daario said in the CVS interview.
1:19:04
He said there's other providers we can agree not to work with each other. >> Sure. >> Yes. Right. That's fine. That's fine.
1:19:09
I mean, frankly, the tokens are probably higher margin for anthropic, you know, sold to private entities, not to the government because they're sub Anthropic is subsidizing them for the government.
1:19:19
So, it's a bad business as we're seeing.
1:19:22
>> What's a what what's a what's a good outcome here?
1:19:26
I think we cancel the contract and and look the other thing is like the DoD says um well we have all these other contractors there's Palunteers of the world and Palunteer might rely on anthropic and so we can't have our our contractors can't be relying upon
1:19:42
anthropic because if that's true then we're still relying upon anthropic so it's fine for them to say no one who has usage restrictions like this can do business with any of our contractors I think that's fine for in the fulfillment of DoD contracts like I think that is perfectly fine. >> Isn't that basically supply chain risk
1:19:56
>> Isn't that basically supply chain risk by any other name?
1:20:01
>> Well, [clears throat] no, because supply chain >> sorry >> supply chain risk would be specific would be at done at the company level as opposed to like at the >> at the contract level. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I I I agree with you.
1:20:12
Also, can you can you explain a little bit more about the the logic of supply chain risk?
1:20:18
Because I was shocked when like DJI is not on there, Deepseek doesn't seem to be on there, Quen doesn't seem to be on there.
1:20:25
Like, this feels like very bad if I'm just trying to think of like my short list for things that I might want to supply chain risk. Like, yeah, it's good.
1:20:35
Huawei is on there, but I got 12 other >> Unit. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:20:40
Unit Tree, I don't think, is on there. Uh, yeah.
1:20:42
like like when should the government apply this?
1:20:44
Does it matter if it's international?
1:20:46
Is there is the national versus international designation important?
1:20:53
>> Well, one thing I'll say is we don't know everyone on the supply chain risk list because sometimes those designations can occur in classified contexts, but um >> but it is the case I think that that the supply chain risk designation, if you go and look at the statutory history, >> it's really intended for foreign adversary companies.
1:21:11
adversary companies. this this is about this is about it's really about China frankly it's really about China um and so it is kind of you know wild to be in a whatever you think of the chip export policy of this administration of you know wanting to sell more Nvidia GPUs to Chinese companies it is kind of wild to
1:21:30
have that policy and then also to say that we're going to treat American companies that we don't like um like Chinese companies like like enemies of the state I don't think we should be doing that >> can you uh talk to me about what your 2025 was like, what your goals were, what of those goals have been achieved, like give me sort of a scorecard on like AI policy in DC. >> Well, you know what I what I wanted to
1:21:54
>> Well, you know what I what I wanted to do is I mean, first of all, you know, obviously getting the action plan done uh that was a you know, 18 20our a day kind of thing for four months in my life.
1:22:03
So, that was that was an intense sprint and um getting [clears throat] it done is obviously a career highlight for me.
1:22:09
I didn't get it done unilaterally.
1:22:11
Of course, a lot of people worked on it, but um you know, that was a big part of it.
1:22:15
Sort of course correcting from what I thought were some of the excesses of the of the Biden policy.
1:22:18
A lot of which was, by the way, this national security inflected control over the labs.
1:22:23
So, it does disappoint me to see us sort of regressing back into Biden era mentality, which is what this is.
1:22:31
>> Um so, there's that is a little bit uh concerning to me, but yeah, like that.
1:22:37
And then more broadly um you know I don't I just I want to AGI pill people you know I want people to like feel the feel the like the the importance of what is going on >> and um and hopefully uh you know try to >> think more strategically about this issue because the thing is is that it can't just be one or two people doing this.
1:22:59
It has to be a community of people.
1:23:00
So, so walk me through what AGI pilling means uh in March of 2026.
1:23:03
Uh >> more Mac minis than people on Capitol Hill.
1:23:11
>> Yeah, I I I mean like I mean like there's terms like software only singularity that robotics will be delayed that there might be Daario uh talks about like the end of the exponential.
1:23:21
He doesn't seem necessarily super intelligencepilled.
1:23:26
He seems like we will get someone who's 150 IQ and you will be able to run it in a data center like the the what does he say a million geniuses in a data center.
1:23:37
It's not it's not one god country of geniuses in a data center.
1:23:39
It's not one god that's like >> so like time traveling and teleportation like it's not entirely all this crazy sci-fi.
1:23:48
It's a little more narrow.
1:23:48
So in terms of timelines, expectations, like what are you telling to uh elected officials these days?
1:23:57
>> Well, I think the very challenging part is that there's the trajectory of the technology and then there's the effect of the technology in the near term, right?
1:24:04
So the technology that we have right now is already legitimately science fiction in my mind.
1:24:09
>> Um but we don't live in a science we don't the the world is not obviously more science fictionesque than it was 3 years ago.
1:24:14
We don't have flying cars.
1:24:14
We don't live on the moon, right?
1:24:17
um we're not doing it and and we don't have Dyson spheres assembled around the sun or whatever.
1:24:22
Um and the reason for that is that um it takes a very long time to transform institutions and to to transform the way that organizations are structured.
1:24:31
And so again, like that's the important thing is that um to me it's it's it's about the actual winner of the AI competition is going to be the the country the civilization that is like most imaginative at like we went from artisal types of you know um manufacturing to factories to eventually assembly lines.
1:24:54
>> Um right we we we're going to do that but for the next generation of things and inventing that.
1:24:58
What is what is all that? what does it look like?
1:25:00
And um you know that's the that's the that's going to be the where the real economic benefits come and the real things that change the world come from.
1:25:08
But those take time and they're really conceptually difficult.
1:25:12
>> How do you think about competition with China with the backdrop of nationalization?
1:25:16
I heard this I heard this quote that was like if you nationalized SpaceX a decade ago like you just get NASA.
1:25:21
Like you don't get SpaceX if it's owned by the government.
1:25:25
It needs to be completely uh independent.
1:25:27
And so, uh, with that backdrop, like what does a healthy American AI lab ecosystem look like that can actually go and win on a geopolitical scale?
1:25:39
>> Well, I think [clears throat] first of all, yes, it's it's got to be it's got to be private companies because they can move faster and be more innovative.
1:25:45
Also, very importantly, um, it's about trust, right?
1:25:49
like selling if we're going to if we're going to sell these services internationally, we need other governments and foreign companies to trust our companies to trust that they're not just ultimately linked to the US military, right?
1:26:00
Because that's the problem is that doing business with China, you sort of know well at the end of the day every company in China is ultimately a military asset and that diminishes trust in Chinese companies.
1:26:13
We're that's something really profound that we're eroding with this action right here.
1:26:17
>> Um and that worries me quite a bit.
1:26:17
Um, so I've been thinking about that in the context of like sovereign AI throughout Europe and I was just like, look, France didn't need its own Google.
1:26:27
They could just use Google. Like it it was fine.
1:26:31
But, uh, when you actually take AI seriously, then you start to wonder about, okay, well, does their strategy, as behind as they might be, does it actually make sense? >> Yeah.
1:26:44
One of one of the things I hope we invent is I open source models I think are are useful and good but I actually think what's what's more important right now is like open-source infrastructure such that more people can sort of like really put their put their own >> uh imprint on models >> uh and uh more people can feel that sovereign experience without having to like build you know multi- gigawatt data centers and whatnot. I hope we can do that.
1:27:16
That's a really >> like a national compute reserve or something like that >> that like that like academic institutions could access.
1:27:25
>> It could be like that but also even more than just the compute itself also like all the infrastructure that connects the compute and all the like I I think there's something really interesting there and I'm excited to see more people do things like that. >> Yeah.
1:27:37
What do you think about the concept of like an FDA for new models?
1:27:40
you're releasing a new model, like it has to pass a battery of tests or benchmarks that are maintained by a like a federal institution in the same way that when you when you release a new cancer drug, you have to test it on mice first, something like that. >> Yeah.
1:27:56
I think the problem with that is that it's that the there's too much to test for because the models can do too much.
1:28:02
So, we don't know what to test for.
1:28:04
>> So, we have very clear end points when we're testing a drug in a person, right?
1:28:09
we have very clear things that we want to test for.
1:28:10
Um, it's much harder to do that in the context of a generalist AI model.
1:28:14
Um, so that's one of the things that worries me about licensing in addition to licensing can slow things down and it can regulatory capture is very real.
1:28:22
Uh, it's it's a very real thing.
1:28:24
Um, I I've always thought of AI as being a little bit more like um like financial services where the regulation is not actually targeted at the products per se.
1:28:36
The regulation is more generally targeted at the entities themselves. So we regulate banks.
1:28:41
We don't we do regulate loans but we do that by way of regulating banks.
1:28:46
We don't like have a there's not a government agency that like approves every single loan that a bank makes.
1:28:52
We what we do is we look at the entity of the bank and we say this this is a sound institution.
1:28:56
This is a soundly governed institution.
1:28:58
That's the kind of thing that I think will be that's I don't know again I don't think we should regulate AI like banks per se but I think that is a useful structural intuition for thinking about AI regulatory uh policy. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Uh Jordy please.
1:29:12
How much uh how much attention uh is DC paying to the news out of Square?
1:29:20
out of Square? the the push back from uh or block the push back from Silicon Valley was hey you're blaming this on AI but it doesn't feel like maybe that's a small part of the reason to do this riff but certainly not the entire story but
1:29:34
then a bunch of groups are going to use this as you know example number one uh as to yeah changes in in the labor force due to AI >> well it's a bad combination because it's all these companies all these tech companies that overhired in the sort of immediate postcoid. Um, and then now
1:29:51
Um, and then now they're also the most exposed to um to AI, right?
1:29:58
They're they're the ones that are adopting AI the most aggressively.
1:30:01
They do the things that AI is best at.
1:30:03
There's lots of software engineering.
1:30:04
And so like it's both things happening at once, I would say.
1:30:06
And that creates an exaggerated sort of funhouse-like effect of of the actual impact of AI on the labor market.
1:30:13
Um I'm very skeptical that like we're going to see things like that at like wide you know firm level anytime soon.
1:30:20
Um you know in the broader economy.
1:30:22
I think we could see it more in the software engineering discipline because there are a lot of big software engineering enterprises that hire too many people right.
1:30:28
So like you know I think that's that's that's a very live possibility but DC is DC.
1:30:32
People are going to interpret the news for whatever is convenient for them you know.
1:30:36
Um, and if you when you play the long game, you have to try to just build credibility over the long term with people.
1:30:42
Um, but yeah, I mean, everyone's going to say this is evidence for whatever I'm on about. >> Yeah.
1:30:50
Uh hypothetically, how do you think something would play out if if like there was a battle on the moon and NASA says, "Hey, we want to buy a bunch of rockets from Blue Origin or SpaceX and we want to go to the moon to fight this war on the moon."
1:31:09
>> And the [clears throat] private company CEO say like, "No, we're not interested in in that.
1:31:14
We want to just launch more satellites."
1:31:16
like it feels like another analogy for like the nationalization conversation.
1:31:20
And maybe maybe it's just a weird time because >> I I feel like in previous eras, uh, a lot of the, you know, you go back to like the dollar a year men, a lot of a lot of American industrialists sort of like stepped up to the charge and were like fans of the government and now there's like much more uh it feels like we're more divided than ever.
1:31:42
Um but but like what is the correct way to marshall a cornered resource as a government?
1:31:53
>> Well, I would think in practice that the the the the companies the SpaceX's and Blue Origins of the world would actually eagerly help the government there.
1:31:59
But let's take your hypothetical and say that they didn't.
1:32:03
>> Um there's an authority called the Defense Production Act, Title One. >> Yeah.
1:32:07
uh which is a there's something called priorities authority and the government can quite literally just put itself at the front of the line for any launch of any rocket and that's what I would suggest they do in that situation.
1:32:18
Um rather than commandeer the rockets themselves that's kind of what I would suggest >> that makes sense.
1:32:22
So defense production act but it requires extraordinary circumstances.
1:32:27
>> Uh the president can do it basically whenever he wants is find the president can make a unilateral finding.
1:32:30
can make a unilateral finding. Um the other thing I'll say that's funny about all this is that like you know the one of the things I was enthusiastic about putting in the action plan was a little notice provision of the action plan is
1:32:42
basically saying in the event of a national emergency DoD needs to have DoD needs to know with the hyperscalers how it's going to commandeer the data centers >> uh for like if it needs like tons of compute in some sort of national emergency that's in the action plan. So,
1:32:55
So, like I'm not here saying like total libert, you know, whatever, like no government involvement.
1:33:01
That's not what I'm saying.
1:33:02
I'm just saying that like anthropic has a right to exist.
1:33:05
>> Uh if they [laughter] if they don't do business with the government, we shouldn't kill them. That's all I'm saying. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:33:09
I think the Wall Street Journal called it like a fight about vibes.
1:33:12
And and I think most people are are not at the point where they say, "Yes, AI is actually nukes."
1:33:16
And yes, like the like one company should should like, you know, like they should be destroyed if they don't give it all up. like that.
1:33:24
That's a very uh middle of the road position that I think a lot of people agree on. >> Yeah, 100%.
1:33:30
>> Yeah, that makes sense. Um Jordy, anything else? >> Not for now.
1:33:34
>> Well, thanks so much for [clears throat] coming on.
1:33:35
>> Yeah, good to see you.
1:33:36
>> Hey guys, thanks so much. Good to see you. >> Great. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. >> Goodbye.
1:33:40
>> Let me tell you about vibe. co.
1:33:40
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1:33:48
Uh another >> Tyler Dean said that the reason we don't have Dyson spheres is because institutions uh aren't aren't quick to adapt.
1:33:59
So you have no more excuses not to build a Dyson sphere. >> Yes. Make it happen.
1:34:05
>> This is a high agency organization.
1:34:05
We we have we have very little uh institutional overhead.
1:34:10
>> Uh >> no no in in the limit. I believe it.
1:34:11
I mean it's like a it's a it's a long chain of events that that require all of these different uh diffusions. um to happen.
1:34:20
Um but >> we got to ask uh Jared his Dyson sphere timeline. >> Yes. Yes.
1:34:26
I mean, obviously the big question is moon versus Mars, but I like uh I like getting up to speed on the plan for the Dyson sphere.
1:34:31
That should be firmly within the the hundredyear plan for NASA. I believe it.
1:34:35
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1:34:51
And without further ado, we have Scott Kabore returning to the show [music] and Jared Eisen for the first time. Welcome to the show. How are you guys doing? >> What's happening? We're doing great. How are you?
1:35:04
>> We're doing fantastically.
1:35:04
Thank you so much for taking the time to talk to us.
1:35:08
Uh please uh take us through the news today because uh I'm very excited to hear from you.
1:35:12
I'm very excited to be joined by you today.
1:35:15
Well, I'm just here for moral support for my good friend Jared.
1:35:16
So Jared, you want to uh you want to give him the give him the news? >> Fantastic. >> Sure.
1:35:21
And uh by the way, I appreciate you giving me a 100-year time frame on the Dyson sphere cuz uh it's been >> it's I mean we're we're over a half century here just getting back to the moon.
1:35:31
So we got to take things in steps.
1:35:32
But um but really that's >> that's where the partnership with uh with OPM comes in and Scott uh has been a champion for us here with NASA force.
1:35:42
Uh we we got to rebuild some of our core competencies here at NASA.
1:35:44
You know, we um we made some big announcements last week that said, look, we if we want to get back to the moon, we want to achieve President Trump's vision within the time frames that have been uh that have been established, we're going to have to do things differently.
1:35:56
We're not going to launch moon rockets every 3 years.
1:35:57
We're going to try and launch them in less than a year.
1:36:00
And people are like, that's impossible.
1:36:02
And I was like, have we, you know, I literally went and got the data from the uh Mercury Gemini and Apollo era saying, you know, we used to do this every three and a half months.
1:36:10
We we literally from from the time Apollo 7 splashed down to Apollo 8 launch to fly around the moon is measured in weeks.
1:36:20
It's like 8 n weeks here.
1:36:20
So what do you mean we can't do it?
1:36:22
Well, they said, look, we don't have some of the same expertise we used to have. >> Yeah.
1:36:27
>> During the space shuttle era of turning our mobile launchers around.
1:36:28
you know, if you're launching every three years, you build up all this experience and expertise and then they then they go out uh after the mission is launched and they go into industry.
1:36:37
So, we got to we got to do some things differently right now.
1:36:40
And one of which is uh we got to start bringing in folks back from industry that have the expertise to grow our young talent because we we have no shortage of people that want to grow up and work at NASA.
1:36:48
I mean, you know, like from the time they're kids, they want to get there.
1:36:52
So plenty of you know young talent coming in the system but uh but but what Scott and OPM are are giving uh us the ability to do is bring in term-based appointments from industry some brilliant minds from you know SpaceX, Blue Origin, Rocket Lab, all our great tech companies who say I want to serve my country.
1:37:07
I want to stick around for a couple years under a term-based appointment.
1:37:10
Elevate some of the talent.
1:37:12
That's how we're going to get back into turning rockets around in months instead of years.
1:37:15
That's how we're going to get back to the moon.
1:37:17
So there's amazing this is part of I was just gonna say look this is part of a broader thing that I think you and I have talked about a little bit which is >> there's kind of two pieces we're trying to solve on the you know the government tech side.
1:37:27
One is obviously can we get early career young people in as as Jared said you know kind of NASA unlike most of the federal government actually has done a really good job there.
1:37:34
The other piece is how do we leverage the private sector to help make sure that we have much better connectivity the private sector and public government.
1:37:40
And so the second part of tech force right was always the private companies having people come in.
1:37:45
Obviously, we want to basically double down on that now for NASA force uh and make sure that we've got kind of all those relevant industry partners who are saying, "Hey, look, we want to have like some of our best people come in, succumb themselves for a year or two, help make NASA, you know, as effective as possible in bringing up the next generation of folks and then if people want to go back to the private sector, like that's great. They can go do that." >> Yeah.
1:38:05
So, talk about the the the type of roles that you need at NASA.
1:38:08
When I think NASA, I think uh frontier science, rocket science, but also the actual astronauts.
1:38:17
And then when I think of industry, I think of like the manufacturing expertise, the person that's going to build the rockets repeatedly because there's this beautiful partnership between the private industry and NASA these days.
1:38:30
Uh, but what how does that actually when the rubber meets the road, who do you need to come join NASA that might not or you know they're they're perfectly suited to advance NASA's mission right now? >> Yeah.
1:38:43
Well, I'll tell you there's two categories there that you mentioned that we don't need to worry about.
1:38:45
So astronauts, we we always get, you know, tens of thousands of applications there. So that that's good.
1:38:51
And I would even say on science because when it comes to the planetary science and helophysics that we do at NASA, no one, we're the only game in town.
1:38:59
So, you know, in in 2028, we're going to launch a nuclearpowered octacopter to Titan to search for signs of life.
1:39:07
You're going to want to come to NASA to do that job.
1:39:10
But, but there are areas where we have, you know, some overlap with industry when it comes to building our um our heavy lift rocket SLS.
1:39:16
um where uh you know industry is also doing very similar things which to be honest is a problem.
1:39:25
>> NASA should only be focused on the near impossible what no one else can do but but SLS is a component of a broader strategy that President Trump laid out with Artemis. We're starting with SLS.
1:39:34
Eventually we'll evolve to other vehicles so that there's an Artemis 100 and beyond someday.
1:39:38
But while we have some of that overlap when it comes to uh our our launchpad, uh turning launch operations, mechanical engineers there, uh we need propulsion engineers that are are can be helpful on our vehicles, uh those that have uh cryofluid uh you know, specializations so we can stop some of these hydrogen leaks, some of these helium flow issues we've had before.
1:39:59
Those are areas that industry is extremely well verssed because we have the healthiest uh commercial launch industry that we've had in the history of America's space program.
1:40:07
And to get people that want to serve their country, give us a couple years over at NASA, elevate our talent.
1:40:12
Like I said, it's g it's going to make a huge difference in terms of turning our vehicles, launching with greater frequency, and achieving the president's national space policy.
1:40:22
>> Can you walk me through the current top few reasons why the moon is important?
1:40:28
Just as a high level, I want to go back.
1:40:30
I'm already on board, but for those people who say, "I want to hang out on Earth.
1:40:35
Why are we going to the moon?
1:40:35
Why is the moon important? Why is it valuable?
1:40:40
>> Okay, so uh I I'm really glad you asked this question and there's quite a few answers that go along with it.
1:40:43
First, the whole like shouldn't there be other things that we we should be doing? Yeah, and we do.
1:40:48
A very small percentage of our resources are actually invested into, you know, a national imperative goal like return to the moon.
1:40:54
This isn't the 1960s anymore, you know, where it's 4 and a.
1:40:58
5% of the discretionary budget.
1:41:00
It's a quarter of a percentage.
1:41:00
And you know who's making up the difference? Private industry.
1:41:03
You know, folks like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos are putting billions of their own resources in play to build capabilities for the good of the American people and really all of humankind.
1:41:14
So, it's not, you know, the taxpayers footing the the bill to do this like it was in the 1960s.
1:41:18
Now, what are some other uh reasons that we should do it?
1:41:22
How about we made a promise to the American people and have for 35 years?
1:41:26
Every president for 35 years has said we're going to return to the moon.
1:41:29
It was only President Trump under his first term when he created the Aremis program.
1:41:33
Now in his second term, my first day on the job where he signs a national space policy that says not only go back to the moon but also build out a moon base.
1:41:40
Are we taking steps in that direction?
1:41:42
And after a hundred billion dollars, think we owe it to the American people to do it.
1:41:45
I'll give you national security reasons to do it.
1:41:47
1969, July 20th, America lands Neil Armstrong, Buzz Aldrin on the moon, brings him safely back to Earth.
1:41:54
It sends a message to the world.
1:41:56
What else is America capable of doing?
1:41:59
Well, if you take 35 years and 100 billion and you fail to do it, well, it sends the exact opposite message.
1:42:05
That's a real national security implication because then it says something's broken and now I'm going to encroach on America's leadership across all the most important technological domains.
1:42:13
Here's the here's another good reason.
1:42:15
We don't know what we're going to find.
1:42:16
I mean, that's the best part of the greatest adventure in human history is going out and learning scientific economic reasons.
1:42:22
We will go to the south pole of the moon where there's ice.
1:42:25
We will use that as a proving ground for power, navigation, communication, insitue resource manufacturing, the capabilities we're going to need when we someday send American astronauts to Mars.
1:42:34
And then we got to be able to bring them back.
1:42:36
And the way you're going to do that is probably making propellant on Mars.
1:42:39
I'd rather do that two and a half days from Earth than nine months away from Earth. >> I love it.
1:42:44
Jordy, those bars >> fired me up. [laughter] Fired me up.
1:42:48
Um uh how do how do people actually uh apply to NASA and how broadly are you casting the net?
1:42:55
Uh I I I think you identified the the astronaut program being like the most elite of the most elite.
1:43:04
We've all seen that one guy who was like a Navy Seal and then a doctor and then he became >> Honey Kim. >> Yeah. Yeah, that's right.
1:43:09
Uh but but >> what's what's he do?
1:43:11
What's he doing now by the way? Any idea? >> I don't know. Is he still an actor? >> So he Oh, yeah.
1:43:15
>> So he Oh, yeah. He's definitely I mean look Johnny Kim is a rock star right I mean you know Navy Seal >> you know Navy Seal sniper then goes and gets his MD he got it from Harvard right so he becomes a doctor then he becomes a NASA astronaut while he's waiting for
1:43:31
his mission he goes to Navy pilot training becomes a a Navy a naval aviatoring there's nothing this guy can't do just came back from the space station he was up there for nine months he actually went up on a Russian soyuse rocket uh so now he's entitled uh to some time off. Although I'm I'm going to
1:43:46
Although I'm I'm going to do everything I can to convince him to come to HQ and uh and help us out a little bit cuz that kind of leadership and competence like we need we need as much of that as we can get at the top of the organization. >> Yeah, that's amazing.
1:43:58
>> I guess your question like if I'm not if I'm not a Navy Seal sniper and I'm not, you know, I'm just a guy who's hardworking.
1:44:05
I'm an American and I want a job at NASA.
1:44:07
What are the different roles that are open?
1:44:09
What are the skill sets that you're looking for and how do you actually apply?
1:44:12
Yeah, I mean we're I I tell you we're looking for a lot of engineers and a lot of technicians.
1:44:17
Uh there's a lot of ways to learn about opportunities.
1:44:20
You can go anywhere from NASA's website to uh USA jobs.
1:44:21
Um we we certainly have positions open and we're we're hitting this in a couple fronts.
1:44:28
We uh another area where Scott has been super helpful.
1:44:31
One of the biggest surprises when I was on the job is 75% of our workforce is contractors.
1:44:35
Now they they get paid exactly almost exactly the same thing as civil servants.
1:44:39
they don't necessarily get all the same benefits.
1:44:40
Uh but they're working for companies that have a 40% uh gross profit premium on top of it, which actually, you know, is about a billion a year, a little more than that, that we could be using for science and discovery.
1:44:51
But even more than that, they have different tools for collaboration for HR systems.
1:44:54
Just, you know, you take 75% of your workforce is contractors and then you combine that with five prime contractors and hundreds of subcontractors building your rockets.
1:45:04
Probably no wonder why some things take a little longer than they should, cost a little bit more than they should.
1:45:07
So, we're converting a lot of contractors back to civil servants.
1:45:09
Uh, we have this great pipeline of young talent that comes in through um through our internship programs.
1:45:15
We have over a thousand every uh I think it's on like a trimester type basis.
1:45:18
We bring in fresh talent.
1:45:20
But then really, how do you bring up that talent and make them, you know, make them lethal within the the the domains that we focus on here at NASA?
1:45:28
You know, those critical engineering capabilities and >> yeah, >> science, operations, and technicians.
1:45:37
That's where uh that's where NASA's tech force comes in.
1:45:40
>> Scott, >> yeah, I was going to say just on the Yeah, from a tactical perspective, if anybody's interested today, just go to, you know, US tech force uh and we will obviously make sure we have it.
1:45:47
And then as we uh roll out formally the NASA force side of it, we'll have a separate landing page for people and make sure that we can uh get folks whether they're coming in on the engineering side or whether you know they're coming from private sector, but easiest way to go right now is just go to US Tech Force and uh we will absolutely make sure that we get you in the queue here. >> Fantastic.
1:46:04
Uh Jared, can you reflect on uh going to space? How did that happen? What does it mean?
1:46:09
Would you recommend it for other folks?
1:46:11
[laughter] >> I think like a lot of things in my career, I got very lucky.
1:46:16
>> Um so I certainly I mean I I definitely can tell you when I was in kindergarten that I said I wanted to grow up and be an astronaut.
1:46:21
The chances of that I thought would be uh you know near zero in life.
1:46:26
>> Um but got very lucky.
1:46:26
Uh you know kind of um you know reached out at the right time.
1:46:31
Uh I I mean this goes back actually 2008.
1:46:32
I went to Bikenor, Kazakhstan to see a Soyuse launch with a lot of the early uh pioneers of the commercial space industry >> and I just kept knocking on the door until uh it was the right time and then uh got lucky to lead you know SpaceX first mission to orbit inspiration 4 followed up with a developmental program uh in uh September of 2024.
1:46:51
We went farther into space.
1:46:53
We tested a new space suit.
1:46:55
We used uh we communicated over a beam of light. It was very cool.
1:46:59
Um, but I'll tell you that uh despite the views that I've um that I've seen, the opportunities that I've had in space, I've got the uh I got the best job in the world right now. >> Yeah.
1:47:08
Uh do you see part of your mission or part of your legacy uh being not only the economic opportunity on the moon, the national interest mission on the moon, but actually just allowing more humans to experience space. Is that important? >> Yeah.
1:47:28
Well, and they go hand in hand with economic opportunity, right?
1:47:29
So, I do point out all the time that I actually think one of the most important KPIs is more people living and working in space.
1:47:36
Uh, now for that to happen, I mean, because I I'm I'm not a believer there's a huge like tourism pipeline in this because it still costs a lot and it'll never be the safety level of an airliner.
1:47:47
So, you're still, you know, taking a controlled explosion, you know, 1.
1:47:51
8 million pounds of thrust, send somebody to 17,500 miles an hour.
1:47:55
that's, you know, and when they get there, odds are really good they're not even going to feel good.
1:47:59
[laughter] >> So, uh, so we got to we got to crack the code on the orbital economy, um, that some days necessitates more people living and working in space.
1:48:06
But if you're asking what I hope the greatest contribution at NASA, um because it's not landing on the moon, that's that's just that's just luck honestly to be here at a time where President Trump gives us the mandate, the resources from the one big beautiful bill, uh congressional appropriations, like you have all the tools to execute on that.
1:48:25
Really, in my mind, it's uh it's uh concentrating our resources here at NASA on the needle movers.
1:48:30
you know, sometimes you get, you know, mile wide, inch deep on a on on all the things you're trying to do, but really focus on the things that no one else is capable of doing but but NASA.
1:48:38
And then empowering the workforce, like the best and brightest across the nation, get rid of as much needless bureaucracy and things that impede progress.
1:48:45
And if you can do that, then then things like returning to the moon and building a moon base will be pale in comparison to what we're capable of achieving in the years ahead.
1:48:55
>> Last question, bit of a funny one.
1:48:55
in the chat asked, "What's the best watch to bring to space?" >> Yeah.
1:49:03
I mean, I don't even know if like I'm even allowed in this world to endorse a brand.
1:49:06
Am I not [laughter] real trouble here? >> Probably not.
1:49:12
>> I guess anyone that can that that keeps the time accurately.
1:49:14
Uh well, thank you so much for coming on the show.
1:49:17
Have a great rest of your day and we'll talk >> Great to meet you, Jared.
1:49:21
And always good to have you on the show, Scott.
1:49:24
>> Yeah, we'll talk to you soon. Goodbye.
1:49:27
Let me tell you about MongoDB.
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1:49:46
Uh it is in the government role.
1:49:49
There's so many there's there's so many things you can't do.
1:49:51
Uh but uh according to the chat, he has a fantastic watch collection.
1:49:55
And I was wondering if there was a momento that he brought with him because you know the story of the moon's watch you know this whole the moon watch uh the was it going to be a Rolex?
1:50:04
Was it going to be an Omega? Wound up being an Omega.
1:50:05
Very very interesting bit of watch history.
1:50:09
We can dive into it at some other time.
1:50:10
>> Breaking news from this morning. >> What happened?
1:50:13
>> Tucker Carlson's >> Oh yes.
1:50:15
>> Uh uh shipment of nicotine was hijacked. Very traumatic.
1:50:19
>> An attack on one nicotine pouch brand is an attack on us all.
1:50:22
I mean, Tyler me this morning.
1:50:24
Tyler was like, "Hey, >> oh, you think I'm guilty. I'm not guilty."
1:50:29
Talk >> you were a little bit late for the gym today, and we thought maybe >> hijacking a little Fast and Furious. That's what Josh said.
1:50:37
>> Dylan says, "Stealing a truckload of Tarker Carlson branded nicotine pouches is like the plot to a Zoomer reboot of the Fast and the Furious." >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:50:45
In In the uh Have you seen the original Fast and Furious, Jordy? >> No.
1:50:51
>> It is so embarrassing.
1:50:51
I've seen I've certainly seen trailers and or seen >> Have you seen any Fast and Furious movies? Any of them?
1:50:59
>> There's so many good ones.
1:50:59
Anyway, in there's like 40 of them, right? >> Yeah.
1:51:04
And they uh there's like 12.
1:51:04
Uh they they and they all have like puns as names.
1:51:09
So there's uh the original movie is called The Fast and the Furious.
1:51:11
Then later they just came out with one that's just called Fast and Furious, which is very confusing. Then they had fast five.
1:51:19
They had too fast, too furious, which is hilarious.
1:51:21
Uh I was really hoping that for the 10th movie they were going to do fast 10 your seat belts.
1:51:25
That would have been a good pun, but they didn't.
1:51:28
And then they did the Fate of the Furious. Effing. >> All right, Dad. >> There we go. I got you.
1:51:32
Anyway, in the Fast and Furious, they they they're stealing, I think, DVD players.
1:51:36
And so they they they hijack a truck, >> right?
1:51:39
>> Because they love movies so much. >> They love movies.
1:51:41
It's it's insider dealing because it's like the movie industry is like we got to promote the DVD players, make them, you know, oh, you want these DVD players, right? What else you got, J?
1:51:51
>> Trey says the IWC that Jared wore to space, he Jared auctioned off for charity. >> Okay. Okay.
1:51:57
Well, I should have asked a more more pointed question about that.
1:52:01
Anyway, uh let me tell you about Vanta automate compliance and security.
1:52:03
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1:52:07
We have Adam Bry from Skyo.
1:52:10
He's the co-founder and CEO in the Restream waiting room.
1:52:12
Welcome to the show, Adam. Great to see you. How are you doing?
1:52:19
>> Great to be here, guys. >> Thanks so much.
1:52:20
Uh, give us the backstory of Skyo.
1:52:23
Get us up to speed on SkyO.
1:52:26
I'm obviously familiar with the with the company, but for those who aren't, there's there's so many places we can go in drones and defense and and DJI.
1:52:33
There's a million places I want to go, but but introduce the company and and take us through the shape of the company right now.
1:52:40
So we are the largest US drone manufacturer.
1:52:42
Uh we sell drones to the military.
1:52:46
We sell drones to public safety and law enforcement.
1:52:47
Uh we sell drones to critical infrastructure inspectors.
1:52:50
Uh we serve a number of our allies around the world. >> Yeah.
1:52:54
>> And the big bet that we made when we started the company was on AI and autonomy. So we started in 2014.
1:52:57
We've been at it for 12 years. Yeah.
1:53:00
>> Um so we made made very big bets on AI and autonomy when they were uh not nearly as obvious as they are today.
1:53:04
Um, and we're at a very exciting moment in drones where where they're really having their moment and the way people use drones is transitioning from, you know, manually flown to dock based and remote and autonomous.
1:53:17
Um, and we're just seeing incredible stuff happen now with our customers.
1:53:21
>> I remember Chris Dixon, I I believe this is the story, showed me a video of a Skyo drone flying around a house and doing sort of a roof inspection.
1:53:30
Is that a real business now or insurance agency?
1:53:35
walk me through some of the less everyone knows about Ukraine, what's going on there, but like how are drones actually getting used in the American economy today in an industrial context.
1:53:45
>> Uh so that is a real use case.
1:53:45
Uh we have customers that are doing uh insurance claims adjustment with drones.
1:53:50
So rather than taking out a ladder and climbing up on a roof, you just take a drone out, you push a couple buttons, it automatically digitizes, inspects the whole thing.
1:53:57
The biggest and fastest growing use of our products today is in law enforcement and public safety where there's just been this huge paradigm shift.
1:54:05
So law enforcement has been using drones for like the last 1015 years.
1:54:06
But historically it was typically a pretty small team.
1:54:10
They were manually flown.
1:54:12
You know, they would get called out every once in a while if there was an event.
1:54:15
>> Uh but the the paradigm shift now is the drone lives in a docking station on the roof of the police department.
1:54:19
Uh it can be flown remotely and when a 911 call comes in, you click one button on a map and the drone will launch itself. It'll fly there.
1:54:27
It'll give you real-time awareness.
1:54:30
>> Um, and it just changes outcomes because you can see a crime in progress.
1:54:32
You can find a missing person.
1:54:34
We we Yeah, we've got a good one here.
1:54:36
So, this is uh this is close to home.
1:54:38
This is San Francisco Police Department. Okay.
1:54:41
>> So, this is called drone as first responder.
1:54:42
So, basically, this was a report of a stolen vehicle. They launched the drone.
1:54:45
They're following this guy from the air.
1:54:46
He doesn't he doesn't know they're there.
1:54:47
So, they knew that people would do this.
1:54:49
They'd steal license plates after they'd stolen the vehicle. >> Wa.
1:54:53
>> They never actually caught anybody in the act.
1:54:54
Uh, but with the drone it's it's easy. You'll see.
1:54:56
So now he's got a stolen stolen plate.
1:54:59
>> Oh, he's putting it on the car.
1:55:01
[laughter] >> Yeah, exactly.
1:55:02
He So he he he nicely holds it up so we can read it from the drone.
1:55:05
[clears throat] >> No way.
1:55:06
>> Uh, >> this is not an actor. This is a real criminal.
1:55:09
>> No, [laughter] no, this is real.
1:55:09
This happened uh this happened last year in San Francisco.
1:55:12
So now he's tinting the window.
1:55:14
So this >> this is bad news, right? This is stolen vehicle. Cold plated the vehicle. Tinting the windows.
1:55:18
He's going off to do a bunch of bad stuff, but they know exactly where he is thanks to the drone.
1:55:22
They send out a plane plane close unit. They roll a spike strip.
1:55:24
Um, >> so he's got flat tires and that's basically end of the story.
1:55:28
And this is happening all the time.
1:55:29
This is happening like every hour, almost every minute somewhere across the country. >> Yeah.
1:55:34
>> That cops are responding to calls with autonomous >> drones.
1:55:36
So, uh, take me deeper into that example.
1:55:39
That that feels like a replacement for dispatching a whole helicopter.
1:55:43
That feels like a police department to have someone sort of manually piloting that even if there's some autonomous systems that are just keeping you from crashing into the walls.
1:55:52
what level of autonomy are we talking about right now for like the most functional use cases?
1:55:59
>> So the way that our our customers talk about it is force multiplier >> um and it really is a force multiplier because you can have one person sitting in an off center they call them real-time information centers uh and they can be flying up to four drones at
1:56:12
once um because there's a lot of automation built into the software so you can just click a button on the map and the drone will fly there or you could click on a car or a person of interest and the drone will start following it. So, it's a highly highly
1:56:21
So, it's a highly highly leveraged activity and it's also just faster to get somewhere.
1:56:25
So, rather than taking half an hour for an officer to roll out on the ground and you know find the address uh whatever it's like 30 seconds for the drone to get there, it can very quickly determine what's happening. And yes, you're right.
1:56:36
You do have sort of a remote officer who's who's flying and controlling this thing, but they're just much more highly leveraged.
1:56:43
And so, the impact is is kind of two-sided.
1:56:46
One of the one of the ends is what you saw there in that video where it's like highstake scenario prime in progress.
1:56:51
We're going to use the drone to change an outcome.
1:56:52
The other end of the spectrum is like the most mundane stuff where somebody reports that like, you know, there's a car parked where it shouldn't be or something and would waste an hour of somebody's time to go check on it, but you just send the drone.
1:57:03
You can very quickly see what's going on.
1:57:04
And and so the law enforce I think I think default expectation in really probably like the next two or three years is if you call 911 a drone should show up in 60 seconds or less.
1:57:16
And this this is happening now you know San Francisco, New York, Philadelphia, Oklahoma City, Miami uh you know big the big cities across the country are all using SkyO.
1:57:26
Um, and >> yeah, so when when a city does when a city uh signs up as a customer, deploys uh deploys your product into the field, >> is there a lag time before you see like I'm assuming crime statistics >> must start to change as criminals realize, hey, I don't have like, you know, 15 minutes to kind of get my act together after committing a crime.
1:57:53
and I have like, you know, 120 seconds and then I'm going to be being tracked and it just makes it a lot more complicated.
1:58:00
So maybe you end up uh, you know, getting a real job or something like that and instead of committing crime, but where what what what kind of shows up in the data, >> economy booms as criminals, [laughter] >> crime goes down, employment goes up. >> Yeah, good.
1:58:16
>> So like San Francisco has been publishing this.
1:58:18
I think that I think that uh crime is down like 30%.
1:58:19
Auto thefts are down close to 50%. Wow. Yeah.
1:58:24
>> And they rolled this out.
1:58:24
So I think um and there was there was actually like an unintentional testimonial from a guy who, you know, who had lived in this world.
1:58:32
You might have seen this.
1:58:32
I remember we should actually find that clip.
1:58:35
But he he was basically saying like prime is over in San Francisco cuz you're screwed.
1:58:39
You know, like you steal a car, they're going to show the drone's going to show up in 30 seconds.
1:58:42
There's nothing you can do.
1:58:43
And it is, you know, it's it's satisfying for me and I think it's also, you know, for us as a company and for our customers, there's just an asymmetric advantage.
1:58:49
when there's a drone following you from above, like there's not a lot you can do.
1:58:52
And you know, I was asking one of our customers, they were showing a video of a retail theft where somebody had had lifted 50,000 bucks from a store, $50,000 worth of goods.
1:59:02
>> And they the drone got there, it it IDed the person just as they were getting into the getaway car.
1:59:06
They followed the getaway car to the person's residence and then he just arrested him.
1:59:09
I was like, "Oh man, this is incredible.
1:59:10
Can you use this video in court?"
1:59:11
And the the chief said, "There's no way this is going to court, right?
1:59:15
Like, we've just we've got this person cold.
1:59:16
We've got video evidence of the whole thing from the drone.
1:59:19
And so it's also just way more efficient. Yeah.
1:59:21
Way more efficient for the system.
1:59:22
You don't have to go through like a shows up and doesn't say, "Oh, there's a bunch of wiggle room."
1:59:28
They just say, "Okay, they got you dead right."
1:59:30
It's like you should just plead guilty plead it out and just and just do the you did the crime.
1:59:33
Um talk to me about what's on an exponential and what's on a linear trajectory.
1:59:38
What I mean by that is uh AI progress clearly on an exponential.
1:59:43
When if you're trying to read that license plate, I believe that you're going to get better at reading that license plate twice as better.
1:59:52
Like the the quality of your AI systems is going to just double constantly.
1:59:56
Uh probably same thing with your your production capacity.
1:59:58
You're probably, you know, exponentially growing the amount of drones that you can make.
2:00:03
But, uh, battery technology, range, flight time, security, like what is still not on an exponential?
2:00:12
>> Uh, it's a really interesting question.
2:00:14
So, the the way that I kind of think about it is, uh, we have a similar kind of dynamic to the self-driving car companies where we're building this really hardcore realw world technology that has to deal with the full complexity of what the real world can present.
2:00:28
different weather conditions, uh, different operating paradigms, different visual lighting conditions.
2:00:34
Um, and a lot of these, you know, AI is on an exponential curve, but I also kind of think the real world is exponentially complex.
2:00:40
And so there's there's this very very hard real world grind that you have to go through to make this stuff work reliably and scalably.
2:00:47
I mean, you can kind of think of our drones like self-running cars that fly.
2:00:50
Um, and >> yeah, >> uh, that that is the hardest piece and and you know, we've been at it now for 12 years and and there's really unfortunately no shortcuts.
2:00:59
I mean, it's it's taken us a long time, millions of flights, tens of thousands of drones we've built to learn a lot of these hard real world lessons and then incorporate them into our hardware and software to make the system reliable.
2:01:10
So, we're benefiting now.
2:01:12
You know, we made big bets on computer vision.
2:01:13
That turned out to be right.
2:01:15
We're on a great exponential there, but the the visual complexity of the real world is also exponentially high.
2:01:20
Yeah, walk us through the the importance of like dockbased drones.
2:01:24
Uh when did you start building docks?
2:01:27
Because I imagine you started with drones and then eventually realized that you need to actually sell the infrastructure that there is not there there aren't just going to be sky ports with charging infrastructure that just pop up everywhere.
2:01:38
So, uh walk us through what we're what we're seeing in that video and and sort of the the the roll out here. >> Yeah.
2:01:46
So, that that's a dock in action.
2:01:48
Um so, vertical integration, there's different ways you can approach it.
2:01:49
I think I'm a big believer in vertical integration like building the dock and the drone and writing all the software that runs on it and writing all the cloud interfaces to to manage it.
2:01:56
Um like all these pieces need to work together to deliver kind of this solution.
2:02:02
Like at the end of the day we're kind of a boring enterprise solution to our customers.
2:02:04
There's just a bunch of cutting edge robotics under the hood to make it possible.
2:02:07
Um and it's it's been a journey to get to where we are.
2:02:11
We we were talking about docs when we started the company in 2014.
2:02:13
One of the things I believe is you got to have for these really big technology plays, you kind of need you need an incremental business path along with the incremental technology.
2:02:22
Like I think the biggest successes Tesla did this, SpaceX did this.
2:02:25
You've got the grand vision, but you've got to find ways to make incremental technical progress and to unlock incremental business value along the way.
2:02:31
So building the drone without the dock is is an obvious example of that.
2:02:34
I think in 2019 is when we really like went all in and said like we think these enterprise markets are ready.
2:02:38
We think the dock is the way to serve them.
2:02:41
Um, so it's been a a six, sevenyear path from then to now have our products really being produced at scale, reliably, working at scale.
2:02:48
Um, and uh, you know, there's a lot of little problems, little and big problems you got to solve along the way to make it work. >> Yeah.
2:02:55
Talk about a little bit about privacy, surveillance, regulation. Can you spy on me?
2:03:00
Can the government spy on me?
2:03:03
I I love the idea of finding my car if it gets stolen, but I'm a little bit hesitant about having a drone follow me around everywhere for no reason, just in case I go 2 miles an hour over the speed limit.
2:03:15
Like, how do you grapple with those tradeoffs, the regulation, how you think the government uses this technology?
2:03:23
>> So, I I think these are civilizational questions and I think ultimately they are like policy and regulatory questions.
2:03:28
uh this you know is a hot topic today of like what's the role of companies and in how their government customers use it.
2:03:35
>> Um so you know we have a voice in this conversation.
2:03:37
We have a a strong posture towards I I think transparency is basically the key. Yeah.
2:03:42
>> Um especially in law enforcement because if the police are transparent and if people see >> you guys hear me just lock my >> earphones. No, we're good.
2:03:51
>> Uh if you take them out you can probably just switch to the the computer audio. >> Yeah.
2:03:55
We can hear the hum of your uh >> your master facility behind you.
2:04:00
Workshop makes it sound like it's like like Santa's workshop. >> It is Santa.
2:04:05
>> It's a manufacturing facility, Jordy.
2:04:07
>> They have [laughter] the biggest gun factory in the US.
2:04:11
>> Yeah, we can hear you now. >> Okay, great. >> You're good. >> Yeah.
2:04:15
So, I think transparency is the key because, you know, if people see what law enforcement is doing with drones, they can form their own assessment and there's natural accountability built in there. Yeah.
2:04:23
And and really one of the like the things that I think our customers are doing an amazing job of is being maximally transparent on this stuff.
2:04:30
Like one of when an agency watches their drone first responder program, they're not trying to like hide it in the back room.
2:04:35
They're like hosting a press event.
2:04:36
They're explaining what they're doing.
2:04:37
They're showing videos like the one that I just showed you.
2:04:40
And we actually have we do a bunch of transparency features of the product.
2:04:43
So we have a transparency portal um that basically makes it easy to for an agency to publish all the flying they're doing. And citizens use this.
2:04:51
you can log on and you can see like, oh, were they following me around to see if I was going through miles hour?
2:04:55
No, they were like busting somebody who stole my car. Yeah.
2:04:59
>> Um, and uh, this is this is kind of a side, but one of the things that I've come to appreciate working with law enforcement is there's there's very high direct accountability there because >> these police chiefs and sheriffs, I mean, they are they're either directly elected themselves or they're downstream from an elected official and if something goes wrong, they're on the nightly news explaining it and they don't want to be there.
2:05:17
Uh, and so they take this stuff really seriously.
2:05:20
So, it's it's not to say that there aren't legit concerns and that everything's going to be perfect hunky dory, but I think the the feedback mechanisms are in place uh to to get us to a healthy place.
2:05:30
And the and the safety benefits are just incredible.
2:05:31
Like when people see like the one that I show, they tend to get it. >> Yeah.
2:05:35
I've been pretty uh I've been pretty satisfied with the way local jurisdictions have been able to decide as a small community whether or not they want license plate readers or whether or not they want uh you know doorbell cameras to be accessible and it hasn't been something that's been forced upon every community or banned from every community.
2:05:57
It's been on a city-by-city basis and that feels like the correct formulation structure based on what we know we're entitled to as Americans. >> That's exactly right. >> Yeah.
2:06:08
[clears throat] >> Like, sorry, just on that note, like when when you're selling to public safety and law enforcement, it's basically a community sale.
2:06:13
Like all this stuff goes before city council before it gets approved. >> Yeah.
2:06:17
>> And and they're the ultimate people that are carrying the purse string.
2:06:19
So that's agency knows that. We know that.
2:06:21
And that's part of that's they're our ultimate customer.
2:06:25
>> We got to talk about DJI.
2:06:25
DJI got added to the FCC's covered list and at the end of last year how you know long time over long >> just had a cool feature where I guess like anyone access any of them.
2:06:35
So like if I have one like >> Yeah, we had the guy we had the guy that h that hacked that basically coded his way into being able to control and look at the video feed of 7,000 DJ.
2:06:48
>> You found the back doors.
2:06:50
>> Yeah, he found the back door >> and then he hacked into a vacuum and drove it to the back door of the house that he was in.
2:06:55
You know, I say that Chinese drones come prehacked, but um >> hacked. Yes. >> No hacking required.
2:07:01
>> But yeah, but how is the the FCC's action impacted your business?
2:07:05
I'm assuming that's something that you felt would have been an obvious decision for the government for for many years prior, but uh give us the history.
2:07:15
>> Yeah, look, I think that part of what's happened here is like when we started the company in 2014, drones seemed like toys.
2:07:20
You know, they were like kids toys.
2:07:22
people flew them and they've been through this evolution from like toys to like useful tools for expert operators to to now I would argue like critical infrastructure and I think and then the the conflict in Ukraine war in Ukraine I think just demonstrated to everybody how important these small light drones are from a national security perspective.
2:07:36
So I think there's been kind of just increasing awareness over the last 10 years that this is critical technology with with very high national security stakes.
2:07:45
Um, and you know, from our perspective as a company, like our goal is just to win on the strengths of the product and the tech.
2:07:53
And I think that the shift to doc and autonomy really plays to our strengths uh both as a company and as a country.
2:08:00
And you you can see this in the market.
2:08:02
Like historically, DJI had like 70 80% market share in in law enforcement.
2:08:06
Um, and in the doc world, they're they're still our number one competitor.
2:08:12
So like Flock Safety is effectively a DJI reseller.
2:08:16
like all of their drone as first responders work is done with DJI drones today.
2:08:19
Um, but the the scoreboard is flipped.
2:08:23
Um, you know, we are we are winning the majority of these deals.
2:08:25
Uh, even before the FCC action on the strengths of the product and the tech because it's it's just sort of a different recipe.
2:08:31
It's similar, but it's a different recipe to deliver the solution.
2:08:34
Price people are a little bit press sensitive because the value is so high.
2:08:38
You know, price is probably DJI's greatest strength.
2:08:40
So, look, from our standpoint, like our goal is just to have the best products and and tech in the world.
2:08:46
We certainly benefit um from policy and regulatory tailwinds, and you know, I'm I'm not neutral on this.
2:08:51
We have a business stake in it.
2:08:53
But I think there's a lot of reasons why we want a domestic drone industry.
2:08:56
Um and why that's important for our national security.
2:09:00
I mean, this stuff is critical for military.
2:09:01
It's critical infrastructure.
2:09:02
It's critical for public safety.
2:09:04
Um, and so it's exciting to see like huge momentum now towards domestic industry and and domestic manufacturing.
2:09:12
But ultimately the only stable long-term solution is to have the best products in tech designed and built right here in the US.
2:09:17
And and that's what we're doing.
2:09:18
That's what the factory behind me is doing.
2:09:20
>> Um, I think this new ch new chapter of drones is infrastructure is is a huge opportunity for us as a as a country and one that we have.
2:09:27
>> How are you thinking about scaling manufacturing capacity over the next decade?
2:09:33
Uh, I mean, we're all in on it.
2:09:33
It's it's a fun set of problems.
2:09:36
I mean, it's just a it's a it's all engineering of some flavor.
2:09:40
It's a different set of engineering problems.
2:09:41
So, we're adding more and more automation to our factory.
2:09:44
We're investing in the systems and processes.
2:09:46
I think that the like the combination of AI and robotics is changes the way manufacturing works.
2:09:53
Like, it's possible to automate more stuff.
2:09:54
It's possible to have what happens on our factory floor be more software defined.
2:09:57
Um, I think that's, you know, that's going to be more to our advantage versus just pure lowcost labor.
2:10:03
Like that's not our strength in the US.
2:10:04
We have phenomenal workers drones, but it's it's, you know, it's a different um it's a different labor equation than it is in Asia.
2:10:10
Uh, so, you know, we're investing very heavily in like the software aspects of manufacturing in the automation around it.
2:10:17
Um, and it's it's part of our core identity as as a company and we're continuing to scale.
2:10:22
So, you know, we're in a 80,000 foot facility now.
2:10:24
A year from now, we'll probably be in a 250,000 foot facility. >> It's a huge facility. >> Huge facility.
2:10:37
Congratulations >> and thank you for taking the time to come chat with us.
2:10:41
Uh good luck with the great scale up get that.
2:10:44
And I mean I I've I've met you over a decade ago.
2:10:47
So a true overnight success. >> Overnight success.
2:10:52
Uh >> uh come back on when you have news, Adam.
2:10:56
>> Yeah, we'll talk to you soon.
2:10:57
>> Really, really cool to to get the update. >> Have a good one. >> Cheers. Thanks, guys.
2:11:00
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2:11:22
And without further ado, we have Matteo from Eight Sleep back [music] on the stream. His fifth sixth time.
2:11:28
We can't stop talking to this guy. How you doing, Matt? >> Rested. >> Good to see you. >> Oh, good. Great to see you guys.
2:11:37
>> I have absolutely loved my aid sleep.
2:11:37
I I continue to sleep on it.
2:11:40
Uh negative 10 on my side, plus 10 on my wife's side.
2:11:45
Uh my 5-year-old has a feature request.
2:11:48
He says, "Where's my zone? I sleep in the middle."
2:11:51
And we're like, "You don't sleep in the middle. You sleep in your bed."
2:11:53
But I'm [laughter and clears throat] sure you get that all the time. But how are you? >> All good. How are you doing, guys? We're fantastic.
2:12:00
Really happy to be back here with some good news.
2:12:03
>> Always great to have you.
2:12:03
Give us give us the news. What happened?
2:12:07
>> Um, we just announced a new round.
2:12:07
We raised um $50 million, 1. 5 billion. Oh. Congratulations.
2:12:20
>> And who'd you raise it from?
2:12:23
>> Uh from Tether Investments.
2:12:23
So it's uh yeah the Tether company.
2:12:26
They are doubling down on AI and and health and have been friends with Paulo the CEO for a for a long time.
2:12:34
He's >> a really big fan of us and >> very quickly he said okay how can I accelerate you guys even more?
2:12:42
and we were able to close a deal very quickly. >> Mhm. Amazing.
2:12:47
Uh give give us an update on on the business overall, everything you're focused on this year, all that good stuff. >> Yeah.
2:12:56
Well, the best part is in in between now in 2025, we raised twice, right?
2:13:01
Uh including this round, but the best part is we were profitable.
2:13:04
So that that's the part I love the most. We we didn't need money.
2:13:09
didn't need money. uh but you know when you have the right investors that they can really push you further it makes a sense from a strategic standpoint so we were profitable we launched three products last year now we sell in 34 countries uh we're going to launch in
2:13:24
China in a matter of a few months so we'll be in China as well and then we will launch Brazil as well this year uh more hardware products coming um as I said strong unit economics a lot of people loving us and we just need to keep shipping uh what actually goes into an international launch for eight sleep >> uh for 2026. >> Yeah. I mean like uh you know it's a >> Yeah.
2:13:49
I mean like uh you know it's a it's a he heavy product.
2:13:52
It's not the easiest thing to ship in the world.
2:13:54
You know some some brands would have entered Brazil or China a long time ago but you guys are going kind of country by country clearly focused uh much more strategically maybe. >> Yeah.
2:14:08
We almost wanted to prove the strategy even at the board level.
2:14:10
So we started with Canada and then from Canada we went to Australia and then Europe then UK then we launched Middle East which was super successful.
2:14:17
Then we launched Mexico which was super successful and then Saudi Arabia, Singapore.
2:14:23
Now the the next big bet is China which will happen in around April and then Brazil.
2:14:29
Brazil is quite complicated.
2:14:31
The interesting thing is we sell everything direct to consumer.
2:14:33
So we don't use distributor stores or we don't go into any retail store.
2:14:37
So we control everything.
2:14:39
Um that makes things faster but at the same time is it there are still a lot of requirements also in terms of approval as a consumer uh electronics device.
2:14:51
So usually that is the thing that requires the the longest and then the supply chain and the shipping.
2:14:58
But that is honestly fairly trivial.
2:15:01
What uh what what key kind of health trends are you tracking?
2:15:04
I'm sure you were you were you >> are peptides changing sleep at all? >> Yeah.
2:15:10
Isn't is I think there is one peptide that specifically targets sleep. >> I'm just curious. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
2:15:16
>> So, we're running some some clinical studies, but yes, there are a couple that seem promising for that >> and um and u and then there are also some drugs about sleep apnea that seem really effective.
2:15:28
They were not approved yet, but there are certain pills that it seems they can really help with the mitigation of sleep apnea.
2:15:36
And then we we filed uh for FDA approval uh both for detection and mitigation of sleep apnea.
2:15:44
We invented a new technology that mitigates sleep apnea without you wearing anything.
2:15:47
I think it could be a massive home run for the business.
2:15:52
Obviously, we we need to get to the finish line and prove it and get the FDA approval.
2:15:55
But if that happens uh it would be a game changer for millions of people.
2:16:00
You know 40% of people with sleep apnnea they don't even know they have it.
2:16:03
And this is a life-threatening disease for certain people.
2:16:06
And um I think we have a really nice solution that is extremely convenient seamless that will help millions or billions of people >> billions. 93 last night. >> Oh how' I do?
2:16:21
95% quality, 100% consistency, 7 hours and 18 minutes. Not too bad. Not too bad. Uh >> 91. >> Oh, let's go.
2:16:32
>> But doesn't it But doesn't it adjust?
2:16:33
Isn't it possible that I got a better night of sleep than John last night, but but he on average gets worse sleep and so he put up an okay a good night for him.
2:16:46
>> John's best night sleep is a nightmare for me. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
2:16:49
[laughter] But but but take me through what does it take to get me to 100?
2:16:53
Uh I know that there are other pieces of the puzzle.
2:16:56
I have the I have the I have the mattress cover of course, but uh should I be taking supplements?
2:17:03
What else do you have for me that could get me to 100 more regularly? >> Yeah.
2:17:09
So you I I I would think in three dimension.
2:17:12
On one side there is consistency.
2:17:13
So going to bed at the same time, waking up at the same time.
2:17:15
I'm I'm very consistent about drinking like a full bottle of wine before bed. >> Is that good? >> Perfect.
2:17:22
That's not going to help with your with your score and with your HRV.
2:17:27
>> I just I just black out and then I wake up and I'm like I fell asleep. It was effective. Made me sleepy. >> Yeah.
2:17:34
I give a presentation to a bunch of entrepreneurs and some of them started challenging me and say, "Yeah, I know that you keep saying this thing of the alcohol, but every time I I have a couple of drinks, I pass out, wake up."
2:17:48
So, at the end, I believe alcohol is not bad for me.
2:17:50
And I say, "Look, man, we can look at your data.
2:17:53
>> We can look at your data." Yeah, I got the data.
2:17:55
[laughter] >> That's hilarious.
2:17:58
>> But statistically, it's not good. >> Yes.
2:18:00
But but on on the supplement side, what's interesting? melatonin.
2:18:02
Give me kind of sort of your thesis about uh the other things that impact sleep.
2:18:09
>> Yeah, honestly the one that works is is well known is melatonin.
2:18:12
The problem with melatonin is you cannot keep taking melatonin for too long. >> That's right.
2:18:19
>> So usually we have run a bunch of studies and what we have seen is you should keep it below 0. 5 milligrams. >> Okay.
2:18:26
>> Uh that otherwise it creates dependency.
2:18:29
Then when you're traveling or you want to adjust for leg, you can go up to 2 milligrams, something like that.
2:18:34
But you should stop after 3 4 days. Not much. >> Yeah.
2:18:38
>> I said a lot of people take three to five milligrams every single night forever. >> Yeah.
2:18:42
And then they build a tolerance and they don't get anything out of it.
2:18:44
Like you know, you can't just drink caffeine every single day and expect to have the same results. >> Exactly.
2:18:49
Then some people report some benefit with magnesium and some of that, but usually the benefits are fairly minimal. Mhm.
2:18:58
>> Um, right now the only one that is very well proven to work is uh melatonin. >> Yeah.
2:19:03
Uh, how many hours of sleep data do you have? >> Me? >> Yeah.
2:19:11
At eight sleep, how how much data are you studying these days?
2:19:16
>> Oh, we crossed billions of nights.
2:19:23
>> I just want to just wanted an excuse.
2:19:27
[laughter] The interesting part is >> what excites me is because we sell in 34 countries now. >> Yeah.
2:19:34
>> It's so interesting, right, to really think that we are powering the sleep of across the globe, right?
2:19:37
Different genders and different everything.
2:19:41
>> What can you tell us what country sleeps best? >> Australia.
2:19:45
>> Australia sleeps best. >> Yeah.
2:19:47
There is a specific place in Australia >> um on the coast where they sleep like babies.
2:19:53
[laughter] >> Like unbeatable. That's amazing.
2:19:58
>> Um, Americans don't sleep very well in the grand scheme of things.
2:20:01
>> What What's the What's the thesis there?
2:20:03
They're just by They're hanging out at the beach. They're super relaxed.
2:20:06
>> Yeah, they're they're lazy. >> Yeah, I think so.
2:20:09
It's probably just they know local culture where um they're still active and but they're probably way more consistent and they have more time for for for sleep.
2:20:18
time for for for sleep. And then the other interesting thing is sometimes you see weird spikes in in good or in a good or bad direction for for sleep know I I we published a long time ago I know how to sleep dipped during the election election day or there are all these
2:20:35
studies about when you know you change the time uh forward or backward all >> day savings time or probably the Super Bowl there's a whole bunch of different dates >> Super Bowl all that kind of things so it's yeah it's pretty video earnings probably people losing sleep. >> Yeah, even after CO a lot of things
2:20:52
>> Yeah, even after CO a lot of things changed.
2:20:55
People started sleeping way longer after CO particularly during COVID they were sleeping like an hour longer on average per night which was pretty impressive and still today you see the difference across even the different days of the week. >> Wow. Yeah, that's impressive.
2:21:08
Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us.
2:21:11
Congratulations on the round >> on the new round >> and we will talk to you soon, Matteo.
2:21:15
>> Yeah, it's great to see you as always. >> Thank you. Goodbye.
2:21:17
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2:21:34
And without further ado, we have Dylan Rolnneck from News Research coming on the show.
2:21:38
What's going on, >> Dylan? How you doing?
2:21:42
>> Yo, great to meet you guys. Big fan of your show. Happy to be here.
2:21:45
>> Thank you so much for taking the time.
2:21:47
Uh since it is the first time on the show, please introduce yourself and what you're working on.
2:21:52
>> Yeah, I'm uh Dylan Rick.
2:21:52
Like you said, I'm the PO and uh broadly I would say news research is working on being a super internet native AI lab. >> Okay.
2:22:02
>> Uh essentially just focused on bringing open source to the forefront doing all we can for open source AI. >> Yeah.
2:22:07
uh t talk about uh agents, harnesses, uh uh conductors, orchestration.
2:22:13
How are how do you envision this year playing out for how people, your customers, your users will interface with AI? >> Yeah.
2:22:28
Well, so I mean I think this year has already been pretty heavy on agents.
2:22:32
We did our >> I mean claw, right? Open claws.
2:22:34
Yeah, >> we just put out Hermes agent.
2:22:36
So, I think people are just starting to get used to a kind of different way to interact with AI that maybe they're not as used to that's like blowing people's mind.
2:22:44
So, if you're like super close to it, some of the stuff might not be that shocking.
2:22:47
But, I think >> you saw with how things became very popular very fast, people getting a first glimpse of like putting an AI out there, kind of like letting it do its thing and coming back to something that's finished or done like a work product is pretty incredible.
2:23:00
>> The rap game focus on Keem is focused.
2:23:03
>> He's getting He's stacking Mac minis. I did. Yeah. >> It's crazy. >> Yeah. We got a conversion.
2:23:06
That' be a big win for us. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
2:23:10
>> I'm a little >> ridiculous.
2:23:12
>> So, anyways, yeah, I mean, like we're we we think it's super powerful.
2:23:13
We put out our Hermes agent, like I said, sort of an alternative kind of, you know, >> we view it as sort of taking the best of what you would see in a coding agent and what you would see in something like OpenClaw.
2:23:24
And then we added a bunch of capability that's important to our own work to advance the stuff that we're doing.
2:23:30
is like if anyone's going to use a agent to advance their work like it sure as hell is going to be us first. So, >> okay.
2:23:36
So, uh when you say advance, you say advanced work, but it feels like there's still some consumer angle.
2:23:40
Like what are the textbook use cases that you're seeing?
2:23:44
[snorts] >> We're just starting to get some feedback on what people are doing, but I think, you know, from the professional standpoint, it's like uh people want a way to just have a task be put out there and they come back like they're messaging with it on Telegram.
2:23:58
They're saying like >> I'd like for you to do some research for me and then by the time I get back to my desk, I'm able to look over that kind of thing. >> Sure.
2:24:04
>> But from our advantage, we put in like, you know, we have traditionally made our name basically doing post training. >> Okay.
2:24:11
>> So all the tools that we've been using, we've been trying to feed into that tool so that this thing could actually help us advance that goal as well.
2:24:18
>> So are you building on top of open- source pre-trains then? >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:24:22
So what what we did to initially gain some popularity was like it was Llama was putting out base models.
2:24:29
>> Y >> we fine-tuned those into something that we thought would be like something the market would want, >> which is why I'm excited about the agent stuff cuz like we were kind of sitting there being like, okay, here's what we think is like a gap between what models are doing presently and what we could add to the fine tune world.
2:24:44
>> Um but once you actually have an agent out there that's like touching people and doing like economic work and helping, you get more feedback as to what it is that you actually need to post train.
2:24:52
So for us it's kind of like now we have this thing out there.
2:24:54
Can we shape an open source model into something that makes the best out of this harness >> and is cheaper or like better across some vectors?
2:25:04
>> Uh how are you thinking about go to market?
2:25:06
Uh the open source piece is interesting but what are the other levers to get people to adopt the product?
2:25:13
>> Yeah, I think um just budgeoning people with how you can use this thing is important.
2:25:17
I I think there's a huge gap between what people know about AI and what AI can actually do.
2:25:22
Like even some of the people that I consider some of the most like savvy uh non-technical users of AI are continually blown away by like what Hermes agent can do.
2:25:31
And Hermes agent again is just like a harness on other people's agent.
2:25:33
It's not even like the compounding effect yet. >> Sure.
2:25:37
>> So I think like making that super easy for people to dive into and get.
2:25:39
So, so yeah, what are you actually uh like pitching them?
2:25:43
Because like you know, chatt comes out, everyone's like this can do your homework.
2:25:47
Uh like this will replace like Wikipedia.
2:25:49
Uh this will replace Google search, right?
2:25:51
Like go here and instead of just typing, you know, tell me the history of the Roman Empire in Google.
2:25:56
You just do that in chat and you get something that's looks different and is better in a bunch of different ways.
2:26:02
Like what's your pitch for like the first prompt that they should fire off?
2:26:08
>> Oh, that's a good one.
2:26:08
Um, I think the well, so the first part of the pitch is like I think open source is crucial for a lot of people and they might not realize it yet, but I think one of the things I hear from folks that use any agent is like I'm willing to spend a couple bucks but maybe not like you know a hundred bucks a day. >> Yeah.
2:26:25
>> And Claude while extraordinarily capable is expensive cuz it's just like omniapable.
2:26:29
Um, so I think the ability to like hone in on the agentic capability at a cheaper price point is definitely part of the pitch.
2:26:35
And I would say just like get in there, figure out what you spend the most amount of your time doing that you don't want to do and ask Hermes agent to solve that for you.
2:26:46
>> I think we need some more specificity if we want to pitch these people.
2:26:48
It's it's tough that people need a killer use case.
2:26:53
They need their hands held.
2:26:53
Uh and uh there's certainly there's certainly opportunity out there.
2:26:57
But uh uh hopefully you know this will evolve.
2:26:59
hopefully you know this will evolve. I'm always I'm always taken by that example of midjourney where if you gave uh David Holes midjourney he said if you give people like a blank box and just say prompt whatever they want to prompt uh they will just type dog and they'll just
2:27:14
get like a picture of a dog and they're like I could have gotten a dog on Google images like this doesn't do anything special but when they went into midjourney they saw everyone else prompting they say space dog on Mars with a you know rocket ship blah blah blah and then they would they would remix and and enjoy. How are you
2:27:28
How are you thinking about bringing the different community together?
2:27:32
The different Hermes agent.
2:27:34
I I was on Instagram and I saw someone who used OpenClaw.
2:27:37
This is just like a family friend uh used OpenClaw to build a new uh photo album piece of software to collect photos from all of their different family resources.
2:27:49
So they have some in Google Drive.
2:27:50
They have the the grandparents use uh you know some Microsoft product and they wanted something that would synthesize all of this together into one.
2:27:58
you know, central place, tag them all, do all of this.
2:28:02
And I was like, that's an interesting use case.
2:28:03
I like that she built that and that's something that I could maybe say, hey, maybe I want that and maybe that becomes a product one day.
2:28:11
But, uh, how are you thinking about bringing the community together?
2:28:14
>> Yeah, that's a good point.
2:28:14
So, here's what I'll say is when we put this out, we were kind of thinking of it as like a gift to the community.
2:28:20
Like, we're very open source focused, like I said, like let's just see what people can make use of this thing.
2:28:25
and we're probably in that discovery phase of like >> what is it that people are doing?
2:28:28
So, we had a bunch of immediately >> cool stuff that I thought came out and then we're putting together a hackathon right now to try to get more of that.
2:28:36
Like >> you want to see, like you said, you want to be inspired by what other people are doing.
2:28:39
So, we're putting together a hackathon that's going to start tomorrow online.
2:28:43
>> Let everyone do I think we're in play mode.
2:28:45
Like do the coolest stuff that you can >> and let's figure out what exactly hits. >> Yeah.
2:28:49
I mean, it is like the best time to go to a hackathon to host a hackathon.
2:28:53
Like we are truly at this like incredible moment where the tools are much better.
2:28:57
>> I would use the agent to figure out homes in my area that look like castles because I'm very inspired by our somewhat of a castle.
2:29:06
>> This is a cool building.
2:29:08
>> Yeah, I'm in a castle.
2:29:08
But yeah, I mean you might not want to give that away because that could be a hit for the hackathon.
2:29:14
>> You know Casey Hanmer, he uh Terraform, he uh he operates his business out of a castle in Burbank. It's amazing.
2:29:19
It makes you feel very secure and strong.
2:29:23
So, >> it has like true turrets.
2:29:24
It was built, it's not really like a defensible castle.
2:29:27
I think it was built more for maybe just a crazy person or something.
2:29:30
Maybe for a film industry or something, but it looks fantastic.
2:29:32
And your office looks fantastic as well.
2:29:34
Congratulations on all the success.
2:29:38
>> Shoot us shoot us a note on on who ends up winning the hackathon and we'll cover it. >> That'd be awesome.
2:29:42
I'm sure I'm sure you'll be talking about it as well. >> Appreciate that.
2:29:46
>> Anyway, Dylan, have a great rest of your day.
2:29:47
>> Great to meet you, Dylan.
2:29:48
>> We'll talk to you soon.
2:29:49
>> Great to meet you guys. Have a great one. >> Goodbye.
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2:29:57
Uh, did you know according to Tyler Cowan, this is how people talk?
2:30:01
According to Sard Sardius, brutally sweater mogged by boomer foy dooms slop maxing on change gooning.
2:30:10
Your sweater is not ready for that sentence.
2:30:13
It's like it's completely escaped velocity to the point where I don't I don't even understand it and I follow most of this lingo pretty closely.
2:30:21
Uh but I appreciate that Tyler Ken has just reflected on the fact that the vernacular is fully changing on the internet and it is in many ways indistinguishable or uh in indecipherable. It is uh it's a mess.
2:30:32
It is it is it is its own form of slop.
2:30:35
Uh the the the the looks maxing lingo.
2:30:38
Uh, the A&W CEO has joined the burger wars.
2:30:46
This just continues and continues.
2:30:46
I guess it's free free press if you're in the fast food industry.
2:30:50
I didn't know that A&W was even a a store.
2:30:53
I didn't know that they sold burgers.
2:30:55
I thought they just had root beer. A&W.
2:30:57
Have you ever been to an A&W, Jordy? >> Never heard of it.
2:31:02
>> Never heard [laughter] of it.
2:31:02
Um, >> never ever heard of it.
2:31:07
>> Uh, you mentioned it, but here is the picture with beautiful lighting.
2:31:09
Baby Keem says three more to go. Two Sparks on the way.
2:31:15
Is that the Nvidia Spark? >> DJX Spark. >> DJX Spark.
2:31:18
That's an expensive computer, right?
2:31:21
Uh he's he's really wiring everything up. 10,000 likes.
2:31:23
He's having a great time.
2:31:26
Uh I uh I I appreciate that that Baby Keem is having having a good time in the open source AI agent world.
2:31:34
>> Pseudo says, "Developers are cooked.
2:31:34
I vibe coded a worse version of an existing product in four weeks with serious security flaws.
2:31:43
>> Yeah, it's uh it's it's a wild time. Be careful out there.
2:31:46
Uh the other interesting thing that's going on is like there's uh there's new data on uh on serious serious traffic declines across tech publications.
2:31:55
Um this is from Danny Kitton.
2:31:58
Says, "No discussion of tech media can get past this basic traffic fact.
2:32:03
In the AI world, Google and social no longer refer traffic, which means that the vast majority of readers just never find you in the first place.
2:32:13
This is, of course, a reaction to uh Trey Stevens proposal that uh but maybe that he should buy Wired, and it's unclear if he's just having fun, but uh there's been there's been a there's been a call from the tech community like bring back the wired we read in the magazines as a kid.
2:32:27
You know, it used to be so techno optimistic.
2:32:30
Now, it's this hyperritical maybe semi-political uh outlet.
2:32:36
Um, but what Danny is pointing to is that these publications have have seen just in the last two years since 2024 traffic declines of between 30% and 97% for digital trends.
2:32:49
The interesting one there, I think it was, of course, Wired.
2:32:53
In November of 2024, Wired was putting up 7 million 7. 7 million views. in traffic. Now it's down at 2. 9.
2:33:02
And uh there's another one on here.
2:33:06
I had no idea that uh that Mashable was still so big.
2:33:10
Mashable has actually done pretty well.
2:33:13
Uh 16 million two years ago.
2:33:13
Now it's down at 11 million. Not too bad.
2:33:18
But ZDNet, that was a website where uh I would go and and The Verge is on here too.
2:33:23
5 million views down at seven. >> Yeah.
2:33:26
I wonder I wonder how much of this is >> due to AI overviews and and you know Google search results now are more ads more more paid links than organic links. There's a lot of that.
2:33:40
There's a lot of uh bigger issues get screenshotted and shared on the screenshot.
2:33:45
There's a hundred for each one of these publications.
2:33:50
There's a hundred or a thousand people that will take whatever news >> and reconstitute it >> and just make it more socially native.
2:33:58
So, I would imagine that the stories these companies are telling are getting a similar amount of impressions overall.
2:34:05
That's just not happening.
2:34:05
potentially more because a lot of the stories that they write about, at least the ones that do uh scoops are are are more interesting than ever.
2:34:13
The Verge has had some great reporting.
2:34:14
Uh Alex Heath, who formerly worked at The Verge and is now writing at sources.
2:34:19
news, his Substack, um says, "More viscerally, these traffic declines represent directionally aligned revenue declines."
2:34:27
And so um if if you see a publication that's down 85% in traffic, they might be down 85% in revenue and that is going to completely change the way they think about the business both from a staffing perspective but also from a content and editorial perspective because if you are seeing traffic decline in one niche or one category, you might need to go viral by doing a listical or doing something that doesn't feel like your roots.
2:34:55
Well, you know, the roots have been dug up in some ways onto the publications.
2:35:01
>> We're not seeing a decline in VC podcast viewership. >> That's true. That's true.
2:35:07
>> There are a number of VC podcasts that are racking up a million views >> interviews with series A or series B founders. >> Yeah.
2:35:16
>> Uh very very impressive numbers. There are some algel.
2:35:18
A lot of people think that you know technology is niche.
2:35:20
some series A founder that you haven't heard on, they can attract a million people to sit down and watch them on Zoom talk about their business uh for an hour.
2:35:28
Uh but apparently they can and the and many venture capital firms have showed us that it's possible.
2:35:34
Uh you do have to pay the people to watch uh and the views might be a little low quality, but uh if you pay the viewers won't comment.
2:35:44
>> If you pay Yeah, they won't comment.
2:35:46
That's an extra bill you got to pay.
2:35:46
And it's very unclear why they aren't buying comments because if you're buying the views comments the reason is that the reason is that they are running paid traffic on meta at their own YouTube videos.
2:35:58
That is actually how they're getting the views.
2:36:00
The the Meta ads as of a couple days ago were public so you could see them.
2:36:04
They're just like you're if you're on Instagram, you'll get an ad for a podcast and then people >> That was that was on meta.
2:36:10
I thought because >> apparently >> and and Google [clears throat] >> because you can actually just run ads for your content on YouTube and then you get people who are in YouTube to click on that content.
2:36:20
Now, are they less likely to comment? Absolutely.
2:36:23
Like the the example on the right is Dwar Cash.
2:36:27
He got a million views and uh it had 4,700 comments.
2:36:29
I went back and checked some of my videos just to kind of know like what is the correct ratio and if I got a video with like a couple hundred thousand views like there were probably a thousand comments on there uh for for a variety of reasons.
2:36:44
Also just people saying like if when the real fans show up they say like first second like oh yeah still watching in 2026 you know people will just do this um and uh um uh very very odd uh just to go buy views because it doesn't create a lot of value and it sort of sets you up for this type of dunk.
2:37:08
Although Matt Turk is being nice and not calling out the particular podcast that uh did this.
2:37:14
Uh Max Fence, who runs he's the general manager of the Dwaresh Patel podcast, says, "Deep down, I know these [clears throat] these are pictures of screens, but it really looks like you printed these out, marked them up with a pen and highlighter, and then took the photos." Max is so is so funny.
2:37:26
And uh he he had a bunch of things.
2:37:29
He says uh uh he was quoting this and said, "You have no idea how long it takes me to write 4,783 comments."
2:37:37
like he's, you know, responsible because of course he's not faking the numbers at that scale.
2:37:39
Uh that's not what's happening. What else?
2:37:43
>> Kyle Corvettz has uh is highlighting some news.
2:37:46
The New York legislature is rapidly pushing through a 2025 bill that would prohibit LLMs from providing >> substantive legal analysis or advice in New York.
2:37:58
Uh >> h >> and >> it seems that LM could still provide substantive help to lawyers under this bill as written. >> Yeah.
2:38:07
>> Consumers, however, would be stuck with the chatbot refusing to answer their legal questions.
2:38:11
So again, this just seems bad.
2:38:13
The entire point of LLMs and AI is to give intelligence to anyone, right?
2:38:21
Like the fact that an individual can get the equivalent of five hours of legal work in a single prompt by like uploading a contract is very good for consumers.
2:38:32
I don't even know how bad it'll be for lawyers, especially given that >> at least right now, even if I could generate entire legal docs, I still want a lawyer to, you know, play a part in it.
2:38:45
But, uh, again, Kyle Corbett says, "I sold my company last year.
2:38:48
GPD5 Pro was at least as valuable in that negotiation as our attorneys who build us $450,000. This is a terrible law.
2:39:00
>> Uh the Prime Jen is timing is chiming in.
2:39:03
I saw him on a podcast recently and I just really like the way this guy talks.
2:39:07
Uh I've been getting a bunch of his Instagram reels too.
2:39:09
He he's a great streamer.
2:39:11
Um uh responding to former uh guests of the show uh Gerge or or Roouroge uh says things that were not on my bingo bingo card.
2:39:19
One anthropic marked as a US supply chain risk by the government same as Huawei.
2:39:23
Again that hasn't actually happened but it's predicted.
2:39:26
Uh two clog going viral across non- tech people as a result.
2:39:30
Number one on the app store.
2:39:30
Three mass chatbt cancellations thanks to OpenAI becoming the government AI supplier.
2:39:34
And Prime says then they will release 5. 4.
2:39:38
Everyone will say AGI and forget all about uh last uh the last week and this week.
2:39:43
Um that that's why it's so fun to cover AI [laughter] because everything changes every two weeks.
2:39:49
changes every two weeks. Um it's uh it's not it's not the something big is happening like I I was reflecting I was uh someone was asking me about uh the something big is happening essay and I was like well actually they predicted that in March it would be like April of
2:40:06
2020 with regard to COVID and the fact that we're just having this normal conversation and walking down the street normally and things are pretty much the same uh sort of sort of negates that u but it's still worth paying attention to and uh I I don't know I'm excited for the next uh the next model shift. There's some
2:40:21
There's some >> which I think is to our theory was uh they said GPT 5. 4 sooner than you think. >> No, >> it's GPT5. xx extreme. >> Satrini chimed in.
2:40:34
It says the next AI model will have extreme reasoning.
2:40:39
Probably trying to jump to the top of the meter chart.
2:40:40
I would imagine that's sort of the benchmark that a lot of people are tracking.
2:40:43
So you got to do a lot of reasoning tokens, a lot of a lot of high high uh long context reasoning.
2:40:49
Um, but uh, whatever they call it, uh, it'll be fun to test drive and see what happens.
2:40:55
>> Uh, there is a new company selling a device called Spectre, the first smart device to stop unwanted audio recordings. >> Crazy. Yeah.
2:41:05
>> And, uh, this post went super viral.
2:41:09
People are pretty excited about it.
2:41:09
Uh, someone else was highlighting that there's hundreds of products on Alibaba and in spy shops that sell these sort of portable audio journals.
2:41:20
>> There's also a company that sells to doctors that's for transcription.
2:41:23
Remember we talked about and the company's printing like a hund00 million and they just like have a very niche sort of like boring use case. >> That's for recording. This is for jamming.
2:41:31
>> Oh, this is for jamming.
2:41:32
>> This is for TJ people like TJ Parker who who don't want to be recorded >> because there's there's both of these.
2:41:38
Anthony Pompiano said we have to live in a simulation that both these companies launch on the same day and it's one company launching uh you know a uh uh a notetaker for real world meetings.
2:41:47
It records everything around you and then on the same day they launched Spectre a different company launched Spectre 1 the smart the first smart device to stop unwanted audio recording.
2:41:58
So the battle for the for the sound waves is well well underway.
2:42:04
Um but yes uh so so so this other post that you said is sort of uh putting Spectre 1 in the truth zone on the first smart device to to stop unwanted audio recordings talking about the idea that there are mic jammers uh elsewhere and these are other these are available if you if you want them but uh they certainly haven't been marketed and a lot of people were unaware of them until this product launch.
2:42:28
So you know is is distribution important here?
2:42:30
Is distribution always important? Yes, probably.
2:42:34
Um, and so, uh, good luck to them.
2:42:37
Uh, good luck to, uh, the the ongoing cold war between the recording and the and the jamming.
2:42:43
Uh, it's going to be it's going to be like a just a crazy crazy battle.
2:42:48
Let me tell you about Plaid.
2:42:50
Plaid powers the apps used to spend, save, borrow, and invest.
2:42:54
Securely connecting bank accounts to move money, fight fraud, and improve lending now with AI.
2:42:58
>> Accenture is buying down detector. I saw this >> 1. 2 billion. Why?
2:43:00
There must be somebody to this business.
2:43:05
>> They said as part of a deal, a $1. 2 billion deal.
2:43:08
So, is it possible that Down Detector is owned by another company and Down Detector just sort of came along for the ride?
2:43:14
Because I can't imagine that Down Detector is worth$ 1. 2 billion.
2:43:18
I mean, respect to everyone who runs that site.
2:43:20
It's certainly valuable, but uh that seems like a lot for uh what they do. Um but um I don't know.
2:43:25
I mean, I could imagine this having business value.
2:43:31
If you've implemented a system and you want to make sure that the system that you implemented as Accenture stays up, having the infrastructure to track uptime is valuable.
2:43:39
A lot of companies are struggling with uptime.
2:43:42
Uh Doug Olaflin was talking about GitHub's uptime.
2:43:46
There's been a lot of people posting about uh Claude having patchy uh response times because of the surge in demand.
2:43:53
Uh this is clearly something businesses care about because every every dollar every minute of uptime is is dollars is >> maybe maybe in the in the age of vibe coding every product is going to be going down that Accenture [laughter] Accenture's helping companies you know unlock AI and they're like wow this stuff's this is going to be pretty bad >> down detector bull market for down detector.
2:44:16
Uh Julian Weiser uh interviewed uh a founder named Ben Sarah.
2:44:25
He's building a company called Pulsia.
2:44:26
Uh >> they've gotten to one and a half million of AR in two weeks with zero human teammates.
2:44:32
Uh very very uh cool progress.
2:44:35
But Zarim says, "Why is the company named AI slop backwards?" >> Is that intentional?
2:44:41
Was that a nod or did they just get >> No, I think it was a maybe a happy accident. >> That's so funny.
2:44:48
>> Really, really [clears throat] good.
2:44:48
Uh Donald Trump uh is at a round table I believe on energy on the on on uh >> uh the the data center buildout and Donald Trump according to Mike Isaac wisfully at the tech round table speaking about OpenAI's Brad Lycap. Brad so young. Look at how young.
2:45:12
[laughter] [gasps] >> Oh, that's so funny.
2:45:14
Brad Lap does uh look very youthful.
2:45:18
He has aged very very youthful business.
2:45:20
Also an absolute dog who's been on a generational run and done uh fantastic things throughout his career. Uh so congrats to him. But this is so so funny.
2:45:29
What a weird That's a total like record scratch freeze frame. Yep, that's me.
2:45:35
Here's how I wound up at a White House roundt with the president of the of the United States saying, "So young. Look at how young."
2:45:44
[laughter] Oh, thanks Mike for a good that up.
2:45:51
>> Place to close out the show.
2:45:51
Brian Johnson walked at a fashion show at Paris Fashion Week.
2:45:57
A Capital says, "From immortal to runway."
2:46:00
Let's give it up for Brian Johnson walking the runway.
2:46:06
That's a that's a bucket list item.
2:46:06
I don't know if it's on my bucket list, but I'm certainly glad that he had the opportunity. Congrats, too.
2:46:11
It >> The only thing is it kind of looks like a futuristic funeral. >> It does.
2:46:18
>> Like a sci-fi like it doesn't have fairly comfortable though.
2:46:21
I like the functionality.
2:46:24
>> But he is looking absolutely jacked. >> He's looking jacked. That is true.
2:46:25
He is looking very strong.
2:46:28
Uh there's this is some mass surveillance going on.
2:46:31
They're surveilling his mass.
2:46:35
>> It really is mass surveillance.
2:46:36
>> This is mass surveillance.
2:46:36
And whether you like it or not, they're going to be taking a video of you and you're looking massive and putting it on the internet and going viral.
2:46:43
Well, thank you for watching the show today.
2:46:45
We will see you tomorrow at 11:00 a. m. sharp Pacific time.
2:46:49
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>> It's a certain hand signal.
2:47:03
>> You have to figure out how it's happening.
2:47:05
How can John possibly be live on the internet on this stream and simultaneously posting content, great content, some of the best content on LinkedIn at the same time? It's it's a mystery.
2:47:17
No one understands how I can do it.
2:47:19
>> And right now over at LinkedIn, it's >> No, wait. No, no, no. That's not true.
2:47:22
I got 100,000 impressions. It's working.
2:47:26
It's starting to work, but we but we figured it out that on LinkedIn, we are going to be focused more on behind the scenes storytelling about how we think about media, how we think about the business of TVPN.
2:47:35
That has been what's resonating.
2:47:38
And so, we're going to be focused a little bit more on that.
2:47:39
Uh, as opposed to some of the tech analysis that we do on X and here on the show, uh, some of the interview clips, the interview clips just aren't really flying there like they do on YouTube and X and and Instagram.
2:47:51
So, we we're starting to find our audience there.
2:47:55
Give us a follow on LinkedIn.
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2:47:57
Anyway, >> and we hope you have a wonderful evening. We'll be back.
2:48:02
>> We'll be back tomorrow for a >> big show. Goodbye.