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>> Good morning everyone. Good morning. Guess what? Guess what? You're watching TVN.
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Today is Monday, uh, December 8th, 2025.
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We are live from the TBPN Ultradome, the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital.
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We have new merch in stock.
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It's not >> Look how festive it looks.
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Let's go to the wide with the tree.
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>> We got the tree with the horse. >> The horse.
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Can we get the horse cam up?
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>> Okay, team is going to have some fun with the PTZs.
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Move around, figure out what's going on, show you the rest of the studio.
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Uh, we've been having a lot of fun.
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Also, we've been expensing things on ramp. Time is money. Save both. Easy.
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use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, a whole lot more, all in one place.
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Um, we've uh we have some new merch.
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We're very excited about this.
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This will be making its way out into the world. >> That's right.
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>> Um, we are also uh excited to talk about >> This is your first This is your first time all year in uh in a sort of a casual fit. >> It is. It is. I have no zero days off.
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I have that dog in me unlike you >> who's been lazy cozy maxing taking days off at left and right.
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the chat is not a fan of of whenever you you go casual.
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Uh I understand that I have a job to do and I'm a professional and so but today's a special day because we do have new merch and it's a lot of fun. That's right.
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And so we wanted to show it off. >> Even Tyler's in it. Tyler's in it as well.
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>> Uh so some big news this morning. >> Yes.
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>> Uh I wanted to start this off with a post from Pika Capital.
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Uh they were >> highlighting.
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So Paramount is launching a hostile bid worth $18 billion to acquire uh WB.
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Uh Pika says this is crazy.
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HBO should make a show about billionaire media tycoons trying to buy other media conglomerate and highlight all the behindthe-scenes drama.
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U so uh without further ado, let's bring in our first guest of the show, uh Rich Greenfield, uh and we can ask him a bunch of questions.
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He's a a true uh expert uh in in uh in the space. >> Yes. Yes.
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Let's bring him in from the re room waiting room.
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>> Thank you so much for taking the time to jump on the show at last minute.
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We're we're also celebrating >> Christmas theme today.
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>> Celebrating the holiday.
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I want some of your merch. Some of that merch.
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I'll wear overnight some to you.
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Thank you for joining uh last minute.
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So I know in what is it 12 minutes uh you have got to jump to another call.
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Uh so let's uh let's get right into it.
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Why don't you give kind of a quick intro on yourself and then we can talk about uh all the news. >> Great.
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>> So I follow Media Stocks. Uh firm is Lightshed.
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We founded it a little over six years ago.
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We talk all things tech media telecom.
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Um and we have been obviously following closely what happens with Warner Brothers.
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And you know, we've had a three-way bidding war. Comcast dropped out.
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So now we have a two-way bidding war.
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The board obviously chose Netflix.
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Paramount is unhappy and is trying to go over the top and go directly to shareholders um to get their offer accepted.
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>> Uh h how do you think uh the antitrust stuff plays into this?
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Is that something that we're going to see a year from now once this like the the current back and forth is resolved or does it have an effect right now?
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>> I mean the irony is like think about what we're doing right now. Yeah.
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what we're doing right now. Yeah. Like you you guys actually what you guys are doing and your success to date >> actually is what makes this antirustwise so difficult cuz just imagine >> how do you look at this and say oh you can't look at YouTube you can't compare
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YouTube right like >> you can't compare Twitter and live video like what is the market for >> infinite there's infinite competition >> well I mean so so that's the thing like you know Netflix started talking about YouTube as their competition for time you know over a decade ago. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
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>> You know, if you're looking at only streaming, are we only going to look at professional streaming?
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So, we're only going to look at Netflix, HBO Max, Disney Plus, and Hulu.
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If if that was the construct, let's just say we'll take the narrowest, you know, sort of silo to look at this.
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Netflix is 24% of time spent in streaming, premium streaming today.
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So, that's no YouTube, no linear TV.
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If you add on HBO Max, you get to 28%.
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Still doesn't seem to violate any antirust problem.
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It's certainly a lot, but it's certainly no 40 50% market share.
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>> But, you know, when you watch the NFL on Netflix, you also watch the NFL on ABC and you watch the NFL on CBS.
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So, how is that not part of the competitive landscape?
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And heck, you know, YouTube, I don't know if each of you have YouTube TV, um, or have Sunday Ticket, but Sunday Ticket is on YouTube, right?
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Like, so to to sort of narrowly define the market as only being premium subscription streaming seems a little crazy.
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And even when you think about movie theaters, like mo some movies come out in movie theaters, some movies come out on streaming.
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Are we only going to look at this as sort of like what's the impact on movie theaters or are we going to think about hey, you know, if Netflix actually owns the movie movie studio, they'll still do some movies in theaters, but they're going to make a lot more movies in total.
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And so the antirust side of this is so complicated and I you look I I can certainly make the argument why this is illegal, but the question is would that actually hold up in court?
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A court actually has to come out and say this is illegal.
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That's where it gets much more difficult because if you remember back not that long ago, guys, you know, the government sued AT&T, Time Warner, under the Trump administration, the first Trump administration, and they lost in court and the deal closed. >> Yeah.
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And it was kind of it kind of wound up being a bad deal, right?
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Or or it was it like it maybe they should have stayed separate.
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Is is that the way we remember that or no?
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>> I mean, the way I certainly remember it is is when they told them they had to sell something, they should have sold something.
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they would have done a lot better off, you know, listening to the government, but they fought so they didn't have to sell anything. >> The rest is history.
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But my point is, we're still a nation of laws.
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Like, you actually have to have a legal basis >> Sure.
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>> for blocking the transaction.
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You have to bring a lawsuit and win in court. >> Yeah. Yeah.
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I was laughing to myself because I was looking for uh like the perfect tweet to sum up the the the fervor around, oh, this is going to create a monopoly.
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this is a that like you know Netflix is going to face antitrust for this and I sound I found a bunch of tweets that were people basically saying like I miss when Netflix was a monopoly and they had everything and now I have to go all over to all these six different bundles and I'm like that's anecdotal but it's still a funny funny sentiment out there.
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>> I mean the reality is like honestly how often do you turn on HBO Max?
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Like honestly like how often are you actually watching that?
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I mean the viewership is actually pretty small. Like I love Last of Us.
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I like White Lotus, but I'm not just turning it on.
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I mean, the biggest problem HBO has is it's not a daily use. >> Totally. Yeah. Yeah.
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No, it's like a Sunday night once a week.
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When there's a show that's so big in the zeitgeist, if I'm not watching it, people will actively call me out and be like, "You're not watching White Lotus.
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You're not watching Success.
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You're not You're not watching Game of Thrones."
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And I feel like I'm crazy.
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And so I I call it like FOMO TV, which is really good.
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It's like if I'm not if I'm not tapped into Game of Thrones, I feel like I'm missing out.
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Um Netflix hasn't been able to cover that as much.
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I feel like they haven't created as much of that.
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Do you What do you think this says about Netflix?
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Is it is it an admission that they have yet to create that much IP that will be around in 50 years?
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Batman, I think, is going to be around in 50 years.
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Squid Game, I don't know if we're going to be able to see Squid Game Halloween costumes in 50 years.
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What do you think this deal says about Netflix's position?
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>> Look, I think it what it says more than anything is that, you know, I mean, Netflix has certainly had a bit more trouble growing engagement over the course of the last year. It's picking up. It's doing better.
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I mean, they've definitely had a very good slate in the last 6 months.
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But engagement isn't growing as much as I think investors would like it to be, especially, you know, again, look who's growing engagement the fastest in all of television. It's YouTube.
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YouTube, >> which is, you know, probably obvious to a lot of people who are not senior media executives, right?
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But like if you look at like consumers, they certainly know I have three kids.
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I certainly see the growth of YouTube.
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There's no doubt that that is the that is the the fastest growing place.
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And I think AI is only going to accelerate that as it gets easier and easier to create higher quality content across the the YouTube userenerated ecosystem.
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>> So I think part of this is Netflix is looking at this going, we need even more IP to play with.
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If we had all of this IP, we could make even more content. We could move faster.
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We could I mean, think about it.
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You were watching things like Ballers. >> Yeah.
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>> Not and Six Feet Under, not on HBO.
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People were watching it on Netflix because they licensed it to Netflix.
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Netflix has this incredible algorithm that helps content get discovered. Yeah.
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>> And I think that's a huge power to this transaction is elevating stuff that is in this Warner Brothers catalog that people just haven't been watching.
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And so I think that's what Netflix is looking at here is how can we take 1 plus 1 and make it equal more than two by making more content.
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>> Do you believe that in the K-pop Demon Hunters example that if K-pop Demon Hunters had not been on Netflix and instead been a Warner Brothers small theatrical release, you know, and then put out somewhere that it wouldn't have been this phenomenon and the fact that stuff can kind of go viral in the Netflix algorithm.
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Do you do you like that uh thesis?
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>> I mean, stuff does go viral.
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I mean, Netflix impacts culture, right?
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Netflix impacts culture, right? I mean whether it was Squid Game, look at this show, you know, this this series in the UK, Adolescent, that premiered on Netflix and blew up all around the world and started having, you know, parents were having some very tough
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conversations with kids after that because of sort of how impactful it was and how moving like content really does go viral on Netflix and it's part of it's the algorithm, part of it's the interface, part of it's the global infrastructure and you know again you need a service that is used a lot. You
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You know, think about Tik Tok, think about reals.
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Why are those algorithms so good at finding stuff that the two of you want to watch every day?
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It's because they have so many inputs. It's learning.
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It's seeing your behavior.
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The more you engage, the better the algorithm is.
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The problem with so many of these services, you just mentioned it with HBO, but it would be the same thing with Hulu or Disney Plus or any of these other services.
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You don't use them that much.
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And so, there isn't that much data to train the algorithm.
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That is what Netflix is really good at.
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And I think that's the opportunity of putting these two companies together.
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It's certainly what Paramount is hoping to get by trying to buy this.
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Paramount needs a bigger streaming service that is used more often because Paramount Plus like HBO Max are both lightly used services. >> Sure. Sure. Yeah, that makes sense.
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>> Okay, let's let's talk about uh the uh $ 108 billion.
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That feels like a a crazy number.
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Uh why why do you do like the the original Netflix bid, you know, felt uh felt rich?
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uh and this feels like on another level.
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How do you how do you how do you >> tripled in value over the last uh like six months?
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>> Look, I think you have to step back.
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Remember >> on the on the Warner Brothers um Warner Brothers is splitting into two companies.
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Paramount is trying to buy the whole thing.
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So, you know, you some of this is a little bit confusing, >> right?
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Paramount is buying everything, meaning the cable network. So, they're buying CNN.
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They're buying the Discovery Channel Food Network. Netflix is not.
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Netflix is just buying the Warner Brothers studio which includes the gaming studio, the film and the TV studio as well as HBO, whereas Paramount is buying everything.
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And so these are a little bit apples and oranges.
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That's why 2775 is actually greater than 30, at least in the if you're the Warner Brothers board, they said that 2775 plus the spunout company is a bigger number than 30.
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Yeah, >> we can debate that.
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But they believe that they are getting 31 or $32 in value because of the spunoff company.
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>> You know, that's the reality here.
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I don't think this tender offer on the face of it is going to move the board.
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I think the real question for all of your viewers out there is is this going to cause Paramount to raise their bid further?
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Because I don't think that I I doubt Warner Brothers comes back and says, you know, we like this better.
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My guess is they're going to say this is still an inferior offer versus Netflix. Sorry.
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And then it'll be up to Paramount to say, do they want to go to 32 or 34 or 36?
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Like where do they want to go next? Do they have more money? >> Yeah.
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And uh just to be clear, I I believe that the Netflix deal leaves behind the the the cable assets which are about $5 a share.
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Warner Brothers is still is currently at $27 a share.
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So it implies like a 12 billion value on those assets.
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So you should add that to Netflix offer if you want to get like the fair market of the full value.
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>> No, cuz you have you you have debt attached to it.
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So you got you got debt that's being left on it.
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So look, you're somewhere between, >> let's just say in round numbers, you're probably $2 to $3.
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Could you be at, you know, Paramount says it's only a dollar, other people say it's at four.
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Let's just say it's somewhere in the middle.
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It's $2 to $3 a share is probably a reasonable starting point for what this asset is worth.
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I mean, look, it's hard to know. it doesn't trade yet.
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So, we're talking about the value of a theoretical public company.
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>> That is a dangerous thing to opine on, especially when you're a levered company because very small differences in valuation have a pretty meaningful impact.
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And so, >> look, I think the the reality is the question is now the Warner board already made their decision. Mhm.
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>> The only way I think this, you know, I'd be surprised if the Warner board did anything different unless there was a notably superior offer >> from Paramount. >> Yeah.
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>> Which we'll see in time.
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You know, this like you're already levering up a lot.
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I mean, you know, I think one of the things that was really misunderstood, there was this story going around for weeks that, you know, Larry Ellison was writing a check himself.
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like he was buying this with his, you know, he'd be selling his oracle stock and he was basically buying this.
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>> The reality is is Ellison is putting up a portion of the dollars, but a lot of the dollars are actually coming from capital they've raised from the Middle East.
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>> You know, you've got 24 plus billion dollars is coming from three >> double their double their double the Ellison's investment, right? >> Correct.
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And so the question is is there more capital?
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Like is Ellison not willing to spend more?
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You know, he's backstopping the whole thing, but how much money does he actually want to put in?
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How much leverage will banks put on this? That is a big question.
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You know, you're you're probably and when you close this deal, you're probably around six times, maybe even a little bit more times levered.
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That's a pretty high leverage.
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They'll work it down quickly, but it is a pretty high leverage on on media assets in 2020.
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I'd probably close in 2020, late 26, 27.
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That's a lot of leverage. >> Yeah.
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Well, and and uh you got to look at or Oracle.
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uh itself is uh is is pretty levered.
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So they're the uh father son are going all in. >> Yeah. Look, I I don't know.
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I mean, look, I there are certainly regulatory issues.
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I mean, it's funny how Hollywood was was coming out and Hollywood was like, "Oh, we we don't like this Netflix transaction."
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Um but, you know, combining two studios, I mean, Disney and Fox merged and Fox is uh you know, Fox has basically, you know, been reduced to almost nothing.
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I mean, they don't make a lot of movies anymore, you know, and so, you know, putting two studios together, they can say they're going to make 30 movies.
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It would be hard to imagine in three or four years anybody making 30 movies.
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I mean, >> I don't know about, you know, you guys, but like attendance to movie theaters. >> Yeah.
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>> Like just actual butts and seats. >> Yeah.
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>> Is almost 50% lower in 25 than it was in 2019.
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So, pre and post pandemic. >> Huge change. >> 50% reduction. >> Yeah.
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in in seats, you know, you know, butts and seats.
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Like that's a huge change.
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And so the movie business, I mean, the funny thing is everyone is talking about like, oh my god, the movie business can't change or, you know, don't hurt the movie business or don't change the theatrical experience.
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Consumers are voting with their feet.
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Consumers have pulled back dramatically on going to movie theaters.
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I think the movie theater business needs to change and needs to adapt to the realities of like unlimited content.
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I mean, look at what we're doing right now.
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I mean, you're directly competing with a service like CNBC.
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Like, there is competition keeps growing from this thing called the internet, and it's not stopping anytime soon.
21:37
>> Uh what uh what should viewers be looking out for this week as the story evolves?
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>> I guess it is very little this I mean, look, who knows?
21:45
I mean, Netflix is going to speak in a few minutes, which is why I've got to hop.
21:48
Um but, you know, I think investors are probably going to be trying to figure out two things.
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one, um, you know, is Paramount really willing or able to go higher than $30 a share in cash, number one.
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And two, what is, you know, if they do, what is Netflix's willingness to go above their current bid?
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I mean, it clearly seems like Netflix raise their offer a couple of times. >> Yep.
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>> And so, will Netflix ultimately, in order to seal this, not seal this, but to to ensure that it doesn't become unsealed, will Netflix have to raise their bid?
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I think those are the two things.
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And as both of you said, the price for this is already pretty astronomical.
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I mean, this was an asset trading at $6 or $7 a share not that long ago.
22:32
Now we're talking about effective >> a friend that I'm sure I'm sure you're friends with, too, who was like, there are no other biders here.
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And he's like, it could not be more connected.
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This was like six weeks ago.
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He he was just fully convinced >> when there were those rumors of a bidding war emerging and people were debating.
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People didn't think there would be one.
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They thought >> Paramount just running away with it. Yep.
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>> But yeah, here we are. >> Yeah. No.
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And I and I think this is Netflix looking opportunistically and going, "Hey, you know, can we really see what's how the industry is changing?
23:08
Can we opportunistically acquire this content and, you know, basically light a fire under it?"
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fire under it?" meaning like really really accelerate the visibility and growth and in of all of this content cuz there's just there is so much content inside of Warner Brothers that has been lying that like you know think about when Disney bought Marvel and you got
23:28
things like Black Panther right and you know Guardians of the Galaxy things that you didn't know were really sitting in that library my guess is there is so much content to play with that's what's really going on here and I think that's why Netflix I mean again I would agree six weeks ago we wrote piece. There was
23:42
There was no way in my mind that Netflix was buying this.
23:46
I was totally and utterly wrong.
23:49
>> Yeah, >> makes makes a lot of sense.
23:50
Last last last last question.
23:52
Who do you like for uh just film and television enthusiasts, who do you think is uh who do you think they're better off with uh owning owning Warner Brothers?
24:03
>> I think the reality is both of these companies are going to inject I mean they both want this asset because they want to build with it.
24:08
M >> so I think ultimately putting either the you know putting Netflix and their global platform behind this putting the Ellison's with their you know second wealthiest family in the world behind it.
24:19
Either way I think if you're you know if you love content you're going to get a lot more content out of this combined company than you are today.
24:25
I mean HBO again doesn't make many shows in a given year.
24:31
>> You're going to get a lot more content. >> Fantastic.
24:33
Thank you for >> any picks for movie of the year personally.
24:38
>> Would you like to see >> of the year?
24:39
>> Did you see anything or are you also just scrolling short form?
24:41
Honestly, it's like actually I haven't seen a movie.
24:45
I I mostly stick to analyzing the stocks.
24:47
I >> I I mean look I I mean Avatar's coming out in a couple of weeks.
24:50
It's always hard to bet against.
24:52
It's always hard to bet against Jim Cameron.
24:54
I mean my guess is it probably won't all be in this calendar year but it probably will be the biggest single dollar, you know, from a box office standpoint.
25:00
probably the biggest bo even even if it doesn't live up to the last couple of Avatars in box office, it probably still is the biggest box office film of the year.
25:09
>> That's a great reminder.
25:09
We got to figure out how to get everyone uh to see that in the biggest IMAX in Los Angeles in the theater because that's going to be a wild experience.
25:16
Uh well, thank you so much for taking me if you learn anything at it.
25:20
I'll I'll fill people in.
25:23
>> Have a great rest of your day >> and get me some merch. I want some merch. >> We're on it, guys. Text your address. >> Cheers.
25:30
Turbo Puffer serverless vector and full text search built from first principles on object storage fast 10x cheaper and extremely scalable.
25:36
Uh our buddy Riley Walls was uh posting on the timeline, how do you search vector embeddings? Did you see this?
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And Jeff Dean replied, who's like the most legendary computer scientist, founder of Google Brain, still a Deep Mind legend, uh, and breaks down how to do it sort of like locally.
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And then everyone else in the comments was just like Turbo Puffer, Turbo Puffer, Turbo Puffer, Turbuffer. It was awesome.
26:02
It was a really funny funny exchange.
26:04
Anyway, um, my uh I I mean that that was very informative.
26:07
My my take today was basically like um a pretty soft take just saying like people who are saying that Netflix plus Warner Brothers is the worst possible outcome.
26:18
I was talking to you about this on Friday.
26:19
Uh I think they're sort of overplaying that narrative because I could imagine Warner Brothers and Disney being more monopolistic or Warner Brothers going to Google and YouTube and being like free on YouTube being like way more anti-competitive.
26:33
And so, uh, this the Netflix Warner Brothers, like at the very least, it's like the third, uh, the third worstc case scenario if you're going to play that game.
26:42
Um, and as we, as we talked, like there just really is so much competition in media because media is >> anybody can be a media company. >> Exactly.
26:52
And there's so many free options.
26:53
And then there's also video games. And Yeah.
26:55
And I think you can argue with how good some video models are getting and and uh you know audio and voice models like you it's it's going to be even like you're going to be able to make a cartoon as a single individual and make like many many you know many many episodes seasons right there's going to be more more competition than ever at the actual like con in the content layer. Yeah.
27:18
uh even if some of the platforms consolidate.
27:23
>> I mean, yeah, just a lot of people are putting on a they're straight up putting on a two-hour podcast instead of a movie regularly.
27:29
Um except when you're on the plane flying back from New York, then you got to watch The Fugitive with Harrison Ford. I made Jordy watch it. Give me your review. >> Fantastic film. We don't know.
27:38
We don't know how to make movies like that anymore.
27:41
I would watch movies if all the movies were like that. >> It's amazing.
27:45
>> I think you just need to give me You need to You need to You should put together. >> Your movie list.
27:49
I have one >> like this in the next week or so.
27:51
So, people can watch them while we're uh you know between like you know Christmas and New Year's when we're off the air.
27:56
But absolutely fantastic movie, fastpac.
27:58
I felt like they were hitting me with like uh you know Mr. Beast's like brain run. >> The editing is good.
28:04
People a lot of times you go back to like the 70s or the 80s and some of the films are really slow like they have these big long openings where they show you every person like the opening credits were a thing. That's all gone now.
28:14
But the fugitive with Harrison Ford just really fast-paced the whole time.
28:19
It jumps straight into the action.
28:21
You're straight into the problem.
28:22
It's very clear what's going on.
28:24
I won't give any spoilers, but uh there's a lot of fun in this movie.
28:28
So, highly recommend it if you haven't seen it. Uh it's fantastic. Have you seen it, Tyler? >> I have not. >> Oh, wow. Okay.
28:33
Well, you treat yourself to The Fugitive um this holiday season.
28:39
Uh also, treat yourself to Linear, the the the system for modern software development.
28:43
linear streamlines work across the entire development cycle from road map to release.
28:48
Um, >> what else do we need?
28:51
Should should we read a a a unhappy take on this take from Chris Murphy? >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Sounds good.
29:00
>> Chris Murphy, US senator from Connecticut.
29:03
>> I thought that was crypto Twitter.
29:03
I thought Chris Murphy crypto Twitter.
29:06
This is like >> I don't I don't think so.
29:08
Chris says the Netflix purchase of Warner Bros. would be a disaster. It's illegal.
29:12
But there are some quietly rooting for it because a Paramount takeover that includes CNN would be worse.
29:18
A short thread on why that's the dangerously wrong way to look at this.
29:24
Uh this deal is a classic antitrust violation. It will drive up prices.
29:28
HBO Max is one of the few things that keeps pricing pressure on Netflix.
29:32
Hundreds of movie theaters will go under.
29:33
Writer writers and production workers in the content business will have terms and wages dictated to them.
29:39
But some will say, uh, well, if the Paramount and Ellison Trump Cabal gets control of Warner Brothers and the deal includes CNN, then Trump would effectively control the bulk of the mainstream media from CBS all the way to CNN.
29:50
That's worse than Netflix owning Warner Bros. Yes, it is.
29:52
But a, a Paramount Warner Brothers deal would be illegal, too.
29:57
Trump shouldn't force us to be for illegal but less corrupt things.
30:01
Uh, B, why do we think Netflix won't agree to the strings Trump puts on this deal?
30:06
This is about making money, not protecting free speech.
30:10
>> Five, tyrants want us to accept blurry moral lines.
30:12
They want us to accept one level of corruption or illegality just because there is an alternative level that's much much worse.
30:17
But that's how democracy disappears by rules disappearing and constant uh relativity creeping in.
30:25
>> So I have two two points. One, public.
30:28
com investing for those that take it seriously.
30:30
They got multiass investing.
30:31
They're trusted by millions.
30:33
And two, uh, the Netflix deal doesn't So, it feel there was, uh, David Ellison was on CNBC this morning and he was talking and they were asking him about C about CNN.
30:43
It's like, you're you own C CBS, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning.
30:45
And clearly a lot of people are like, are you going to put your thumb on the scale politically?
30:52
Is there like a political angle to the way you will steward these media assets?
30:56
And I don't think people are that worried about the political bias injected into Fogghorn Legghorn or WY Coyote or whatever or even like the Seinfeld catalog.
31:06
It's not like they're going to like reboot it and it'll be like a right-wing Seinfeld.
31:09
Like I don't I just don't think that's going to happen.
31:12
But people do worry about news coverage like CNN, CBS.
31:14
But the weird thing is that in the Netflix scenario, CNN is left there in the in the in the in the in the ghost ship.
31:23
There's it's a ghost ship. >> It's a ghost ship.
31:25
We know this very well from from the way tech likes to acquire companies.
31:30
Uh >> and is there a scenario where Paramount loses >> Warner Brothers still buys the cable business? >> Yes, I I think so. I think so.
31:36
And they get Shark Week and they get uh they get a bunch of fun stuff.
31:41
HGTV 90day Fiance >> David Ellison with Shark Week.
31:44
I mean they would I mean putting the Allison family behind Shark Week >> people people think that might be good for sharks >> indeed welfare.
31:56
>> Um >> yeah so here's the thing.
31:57
So we talked with Rich about how like more competition than ever at the content layer.
32:01
It's very cheap to create and distribute content. It's effectively free.
32:05
>> Uh that said uh there's feels like in some ways more of an monopoly than ever on truth if that makes sense.
32:10
So legacy media properties have a monopoly on truth. >> Yes.
32:15
uh if we say something and we have the aesthetics of television, we say this is true, it doesn't hold the same weight as CNBC or CNN or anything like that because they have >> uh they're actually running generally running. Yeah, it's brand. It's brand.
32:31
So when the New York Times says something and uh a Substack disagrees with it and says, "No, this is what actually happened."
32:37
Who who are people going to believe?
32:39
They're going to believe New York Times 10 times out of 10. Yep.
32:42
And so um yeah, I think uh it is that that part of it is uh ideally you would want a lot more kind of like distribution between the networks and these brands that that have a monopoly on the truth. >> Yeah.
32:56
But at the same time, the fact that uh that David Ellison is not cheering at the fact that he like you see Warner Brothers and if you're I in the in the conspiratorial the tinfoil hat like David Ellison is trying to control the news narrative that is sort of bubbling up there.
33:13
The flip side is is he should be cheering because he's like, "Wow, they bought everything I don't want. I didn't want Batman."
33:19
But in fact, he does want Batman. >> He does.
33:24
He wants Fogghorn Legghorn. He wants it all.
33:27
>> He needs Fogghorn Legghorn. >> He wants it all. >> He needs Wy Coyote. He needs Porky Pig.
33:32
>> The The list of as >> you don't know Porky Pig. >> No.
33:36
>> How do you not know Porky Pig? >> Is that a YC startup? >> It should be. It should be. >> Oh, Porky Pig. >> Porky Pig. Okay. Looney. Yeah. Looney Tunes.
33:44
The Looney Tunes character.
33:46
Looney Tunes cinematic universe is great.
33:48
>> There actually was a um I think there was a YC company in this batch called Piggy Robotics. >> Yeah. Yeah, we saw.
33:53
No, the YC companies needed New rule. New rule, Nick.
33:55
When you're booking when you're booking YC uh startups, if it's swine themed, they're on the show, okay?
34:04
I don't want to miss a single swine themed company ever.
34:06
Pig, Post Hog, Piggy, we we need all these companies. They're all great. >> Uh, red alert. Pig has rebranded.
34:15
No, >> the YC company called Pig. Wow. Spitting in our face.
34:21
They're now called Butter. >> Butter.
34:25
It's still like animal themed. It's an animal product. It's an animal product. >> What kind of butter?
34:31
>> Analyzing it based on its macros.
34:31
Very heavy on >> cow butter. >> Fat, low protein. >> Okay.
34:37
>> Low carb, low protein, high fat.
34:39
>> They rebranded to butter.
34:39
They stayed on the farm theme.
34:41
They were like, we have turned into all the customers churned and churn was so bad. We turned into butter. >> Butter never.
34:50
>> We got We got to get the >> Always turn. I don't know.
34:52
>> We got to get the update. I like the founder.
34:54
>> I I did like the founder.
34:54
I also like fall generative media platform for developers.
34:58
Develop and fine-tune models with serverless GPUs and on demand clusters.
35:02
Um we have some news from our flight back from New York. We flew JetBlue again.
35:12
>> If you if you're new here, we a couple months ago we flew JetBlue with the whole team and we got into a little bit of a situation with Jet.
35:19
>> They almost had to land the aircraft.
35:20
They almost had to land the aircraft because we were Jordy and I were sitting in business class. We were served stakes.
35:25
We tried to pass those stakes back to our friends and colleagues who were sitting in economy and they told us not. They they said stop. You can't.
35:33
I think someone put their hand on your chest. >> They didn't sit down. It was even worse. Sit down.
35:41
They didn't put their hand me the flight attendant, but they grabbed the dessert.
35:45
>> Oh, they grabbed the dessert that you were trying to pass to the team.
35:46
And you know, we like to believe in >> not own this dessert.
35:51
>> We like property rights around here.
35:51
We like the ability to move freely.
35:53
And I think possessions 9/10 of the law.
35:55
You give me the ice cream. You give me the steak. I control it. I can do what I want.
36:02
But on our latest flight, we figured out the ultimate hack for how to pass food back from business class to uh economy on a jet flight.
36:12
>> We proved that this works twice >> and we're sh and we're sharing it with you today. Deep alpha. Deep Alpha.
36:15
And so we'll we'll hopefully pull up some of the photos which so this is so in in first class they give you headphones with a case.
36:26
And so what I was able to do was I was able to take the food >> so my food >> and put it over case.
36:33
>> So we we all had dinner before the flight.
36:35
>> That's ice cream in the in case we had dinner before headphone case.
36:39
>> So I show up and I'm not hungry but Ben's a growing growing boy and I and I'm like we got to get we got to get my my dinner back to Ben.
36:45
And so we put uh we we take the headphone case, we zip it up, I take it back, I pass it.
36:51
>> You insisted on the bread roll going in there. I don't know.
36:53
>> Of course, I had I wasn't going to have it.
36:55
Wasn't He needed the bread.
36:57
>> Did you eat the bread? >> I ate all of it. >> Okay.
36:59
Wait, was the bread over buttered or did it have the appropriate amount of butter?
37:03
>> It had a lot of butter.
37:04
>> It had a lot of butter, right?
37:04
Jordy insisted insisted on giving you the full pad of butter and I thought maybe half a pad.
37:10
>> I just wanted you to have optionality. >> Okay.
37:12
Well, you Yeah, you I guess you had optionality.
37:13
You could have taken it out, but what would you have done with it?
37:16
>> I didn't have anybody sitting next to me. >> Oh, you didn't? Okay.
37:19
>> No, but the guy there was a guy across the aisle from you.
37:20
He was giving me the dirtiest. >> No way.
37:24
>> I I thought he had bones in the >> I thought he was going to say like, "If you don't bring me back food, too, >> you wanted to tattletail. That is a risk."
37:32
>> No, but the real the real risk with when you're running a strategy like this and you need to be highly coordinated is that the flight attendant in in the business class section says, "Where's your cutlery?" >> Yes. Yes.
37:42
Yeah, because your your knife and fork are going to be missing.
37:48
So the the real Yeah, you can see Jordy going back to I took that photo.
37:53
>> We were running running plays >> and so No, no.
37:55
So So there's another tip here that uh that that you you don't want to jump the gun.
38:00
So the the the food service, the dinner service, it takes place over a couple minutes.
38:05
All the plates get dis uh get uh passed out and people eat pretty quickly.
38:10
So, typically the flight attendant by the time they finish delivering the last plate, they will go and start picking up the plate from the beginning because it only takes a people a couple minutes to eat the food on the plane.
38:20
But what you you want to wait them out.
38:22
You want to you need a couple rounds of them coming by and and you and you have the full meal there and they're like, "Are you done with that?"
38:29
And you say, "No, no, I'm still working. I'm still working."
38:31
>> So, you got to say, "I'm still working."
38:33
A couple times and then they will go back and sit down at the front of the plane.
38:37
They'll kind of relax the postmeal break.
38:40
They might be gearing up for, oh, maybe I'll I'll get everyone a new glass of wine in 20 minutes. But I'm chilling.
38:48
That's your opportunity because that's when they're at their weakest.
38:50
That's when they're not going to be paying attention.
38:53
>> You almost got caught at one point. You're caught.
38:55
She came She the the flight attendant, lovely, lovely woman.
38:59
She came over and said >> uh she she came up and said, "Do you want any tea?" >> Yeah.
39:03
>> And you had missing missing cup.
39:05
There was there was food in the headset case. >> You close.
39:11
>> I had to close the headset case because you don't want to get caught with >> with the Yes. Yes.
39:17
Uh yes, we do need the whole crew on on business and and we will be doing that soon. >> We're working on it. >> We're working on it.
39:22
Yeah, we we we got a ton of we got a ton of minations, but in the meantime, well, we're having fun.
39:28
Uh we're also on profound get your brand mentioned in chat GPT.
39:30
meet millions of consumers who use AI to discover new products and brands.
39:34
And uh people were having fun with the uh I don't know if this is real. I saw this posted. This is a joke.
39:43
>> Uh this account just posts NLE Choa submitted a last minute bid to buy Warner Brothers for 45,000 >> in 45K in cash. In cash.
39:53
It's like it actually is relevant because the other the other offers are heavily debt laden.
40:01
And so if you care about that, if you want an allcash offer, this might be your best bet.
40:04
>> It's a pretty good option.
40:05
>> This is the best option.
40:05
If you're if you only want >> Andy.
40:08
Andy, who's been on an absolute roll lately, says, "Uh, you're laughing at him, but how much did you put up to buy Warner Brothers?" Exactly. >> Exactly. >> Can we pull up Andy?
40:16
Andy launched uh did a had a launch video like yesterday. >> Oh, yeah.
40:21
>> Andy, of course, is the founder of two cents. money. He's been on the show.
40:23
He has a uh he has a uh a social an anonymous social network that links with your bank account and so you just your username is just your financial net worth.
40:36
>> The video is at the bottom of the of the stack guys if you can pull it up.
40:40
>> He's he's big on financializing everything.
40:42
He's a he's a financial >> he was kind of early early to the trend.
40:45
>> Early to the trend, but but he's always done it in sort of a fun way. What are we doing here? >> I can't read that. So, I don't know.
40:53
We need to go full screen on this.
40:58
>> Okay, let's uh while they're pulling that up, let me tell you about Finn.
40:59
AI, the number one AI agent for customer service.
41:05
Automate the most complex customer service queries on every channel with Finn. ai.
41:12
Um, are we able to play this full?
41:12
It is two minutes and we only have so many minutes. Yeah, let's play it. Hi, this is Osmo. We make films.
41:19
Two cents founder Andy Duro raised three million for his startup and paid us 2. 5 million.
41:25
The This was the only direction he gave us.
41:27
>> We need this to look like the most expensive launch video ever made.
41:29
It has to look like >> Why is he in Albania? Albania.
41:35
>> The day before our shoot, Andy was still on his investor's boat chasing a series A. >> Is this rage bait?
41:41
I feel like this is giving me like I'm going to be enraged.
41:46
Uh we were under contract to spend the entire production.
41:48
And here's >> I want a Scarface montage in a mansion. >> There we go.
41:55
>> Show off our in-house coding models. Coding models.
42:03
>> And they should be coding in Rust.
42:03
Not just tiny apps, but full scale system architecture.
42:09
>> And then the cinematography here is wild. >> Like this one.
42:11
And I want the bathtub scene from The Big Short, but add more models and like have one of them explaining the value prop with two cents.
42:20
>> So basically, you know how everyone on social media pretends to be rich.
42:26
>> The problem is it's all fake.
42:28
>> Then we should have the models reenact that scene from the Wolf of Wall Street.
42:32
You know, the one where Leo's boat gets seized by the FBI.
42:35
>> You want some lobster for the ride home? You miserable pricks.
42:37
I know you can't afford them. >> What was the bit?
42:40
He said he he spent two and a half million on this.
42:44
>> Is that what is that what you're saying? >> All right.
42:46
This is not PG enough, but it is funny.
42:48
>> Uh it's funny to basically run through every single launch video bit that there is and narrate and and just be narrating. Yeah, just do that one.
42:56
>> Just do that and then do that one and then do that one. Yeah. >> Okay. >> Ridiculous.
43:00
>> Uh >> well, Buo is saying the more he reads about the Netflix deal, the more it seems like.
43:05
One, this is bad for everyone that isn't Netflix.
43:06
Two, this would be very good for Netflix.
43:09
And three, it should be blocked if our system still works.
43:12
So, he is a block the deal guy.
43:14
Uh, Ernest says it's extremely proconsumer.
43:17
New price is going to be lower than the current standalone Netflix plus max price with superior UX for subscribers.
43:24
And Buco says, I don't think you can say it's extremely proconsumer with any sort of confidence.
43:30
This is give them tremendous pricing power.
43:33
>> A few people have said, oh yeah, like it's going to be cheaper.
43:35
And it's like, okay, is it gonna be cheap?
43:37
It's gonna be cheaper like right away.
43:38
Is it gonna be cheaper in 10 years? No way.
43:44
>> And and I mean, if there's nothing there's nothing more long-term pill than a public company.
43:51
Like they love thinking in decades and like no, I mean like a company like Netflix truly can be like yes, like >> the price $99 a month by 2035. >> It might be a steal.
44:02
It might be a steal at 99 if you're getting Seinfeld and Fogghorn Legghorn and Poor Dig.
44:08
>> This is a good uh walk through history.
44:11
John Erlickman says December 2010, Time Warner views, this is a New York Times article.
44:16
Time Warner views Netflix as a fading star.
44:18
For the past year, executives at big media companies have watched Netflix with growing resentment for its success and delivering movies and television vision shows via the internet, for its stock price nearly quadrupling, uh for its uh chief executive being named business person of the year by Fortune magazine.
44:34
Uh I imagine at that time they were thinking, well, it's cool that they can deliver movies, but they'll never be able to make they'll never be able to make content.
44:43
And of course, uh now recently Netflix to buy Warner Bros.
44:47
It it is such a such a big deal like uh 83 billion it it's almost it almost feels like small compared to like all the AI valuations and stuff and the and the and the hyperscaler valuations but uh Netflix is only a $400 billion business by comparison.
45:02
So like this is 20% of their market cap essentially like it's a it's a serious merger uh and would be and would be huge huge integration.
45:09
Um I uh I I I do wonder about that question of like how many movies they would be making per year.
45:16
or would they would they try and still make 30 big movies or something like that?
45:19
I feel like um you if you don't make those big movies, you don't get the you don't you don't develop the new IP.
45:28
Like if you look at what Avatar is, Avatar has been, you know, this like incredible undertaking from a fin like just so much money poured into the production there, but it's probably the best chance at getting something that's actually like an enduring legacy where it's like, yeah, people are still talking about the the Avatar multiverse or cinematic universe in five decades, 10 decades, you know, in a long long time.
45:55
Um, it's very very hard to to be to be sticky if you're not taking big swings and doing things that are like actually really really bold.
46:03
Anyway, uh while we move on, let me tell you about Gemini 3 Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet.
46:07
State-of-the-art reasoning, next level VOD coding, and deep multimodal understanding.
46:13
Um, oh, there was this hilarious clip where uh apparently in 2013, this is from Matthew Ball, everyone's forgetting Netflix Q4 2013 earnings. Do you know ball? >> When? >> Yes. >> Which ball? >> All. >> Do you know? Do you know? >> All ball. >> Old ball.
46:31
>> Wait, but do you actually know Matthew Ball? >> Uh >> oh, here we go. He doesn't know Ball. >> Whoa.
46:36
>> You got to know every every analyst with the last name Ball.
46:38
I wonder if they're related.
46:40
Uh anyway, Reed Hastings uh is asked about the HBO CEO's thoughts on password sharing, and he replies, "I guess he doesn't mind me then sharing his account info. It's peppler at hbo.
46:53
com and his password is Netflix Um, what a weird thing to do.
46:55
Was that actually his password? It's such a weird meme.
47:00
Here, let yeah, let's play the actual video.
47:02
Is that the is that the clip?
47:04
I know Trung fan uh clipped the actual um >> I guess Perler's uh the CEO of HBO doesn't mind me then sharing his account information.
47:13
So, it's uh Plepler at HBO.
47:16
com and his password is uh Netflix This is like an insane.
47:19
He must be joking, but it's like such a weird sense of humor.
47:24
Maybe it's just out of context.
47:26
Maybe maybe if you watch the full thing or you understand the conversation that was happening in 2013 around the two companies.
47:30
But like even if that's even if that's not his password, it's like it's annoying to share someone's email publicly, right?
47:38
Because they just get a bunch of spam, I think.
47:40
But maybe this earnings call was like so narrowly watched that no one really, you know, would spam him. But I don't know.
47:49
I would imagine it'd be really annoying to have your email leak on on an earnings call.
47:52
Uh anyway, um >> uh people really want Lena Con back in the driver's seat.
48:00
Sammy Gold says, "Lena, you can have this one this one time."
48:05
>> I don't I don't really understand why people are so against this.
48:06
It doesn't >> The idea of Netflix owning Succession, The Soprano, and The Wire.
48:12
>> Well, the TV stuff doesn't seem that bad because that was never in theaters.
48:14
I I I I guess I do understand people who are saying like like like they're going to own Lord of the Rings.
48:20
Seeing Lord of the Rings in theaters was a special thing and that special thing might not happen anymore because it's incompatible with the modern business model.
48:27
And so if you're if you're a Lord of the Rings fan and you really like movies and you did not like the show, >> well then it's like get ready for more shows and less movies probably. >> I would. >> Yeah.
48:39
I think uh anybody who's upset because of the impact on traditional cinema >> and movie theaters, I want to see every sing I want to see a proof of how many movies they've gone to in the last >> the revealed preference is crazy.
48:53
But >> right, they're like, "Oh, I've seen one movie." And it's like, okay. >> I don't know.
49:00
Well, uh we should move on.
49:03
Uh let me tell you about Reream.
49:03
One live stream, 30 plus destinations.
49:05
If you want to multiream, go to reream. com.
49:09
Nice shot of Tyler before that ad comes in.
49:12
Uh Apple is uh changing of the guard.
49:16
It feels like a ton of executives are leaving.
49:19
Ton of executives are turning over and everyone's kind of speculating that potentially um this is the beginning of the next major um major uh you know executive leadership team coming in that there'll be some sort of you know before and after maybe we're exiting the Tim Cook era. I don't think so.
49:37
I think I think you just got to double, triple, maybe 10x Tim Cook's pay and you're good.
49:41
But if they wind up uh turning the entire team over, maybe that's what happens, too.
49:46
So, John Gandre, >> super out of pocket to include Steve Jobs on this.
49:51
>> Yeah, that's very odd.
49:51
Um, but the interesting thing is John Turnis, he is of course leading.
49:56
He's there's been a bunch of leaks about John Turnis, the head of hardware, potentially stepping up to the CEO role.
50:00
That would be very exciting.
50:02
And uh there's been rumors swirling.
50:04
Unclear if it's like one of those things where he's leaking or someone else is leaking things.
50:08
Um it's, you know, you never really know um until the actual news drops.
50:14
But um I I remain I remain positive on Tim Cook's leadership.
50:20
I think he got the big things right and I think he missed the hot things but missing the hot trend that's actually not that uh existential to the business >> that you could argue they haven't missed yet. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
50:33
You could argue they haven't missed it and you could argue that AI was not existential to them at least in the short term. But we'll see.
50:41
Um, but this Justin Bieber post is insane because you read me this and I and I didn't hear you say this is from Justin Bieber's account and I was like, "Oh, that's funny.
50:51
There's someone who's mad at Apple."
50:53
>> But it's way funnier coming from Justin Bieber.
50:56
>> Put Justin Bieber as a product manager at Apple and I genuinely believe the >> products across would improve. >> Get Get him in Figma.
51:04
Think bigger, build faster.
51:06
Figma helps design and development teams build great products together.
51:10
So, without further ado, uh Justin says, "If I hit this dictation button after sending a text and it beeps and stops my music one more time, I'm going to find everyone at Apple and put them in a rear naked choke hole.
51:21
Even if I turn off dictation, I somehow hit the voice note thing.
51:26
The send button should not have multiple functions in the same spot." I couldn't agree more.
51:30
This is so I mean it's just absolutely insane cuz cuz the issue is >> uh yeah one one this happens a lot.
51:38
This happens to me and then it's always nerve-wracking because if you have somebody pulled up on text and you happen let's say I'm like hey this hey this person is wanting to change the the time of this meeting to this other point and I'm actually I'm like what do you think? What should we do?
51:55
And then it's just like happens to be like recording and then you're like whoa whoa whoa.
51:58
I don't want to, you know, I just want to um So, yeah, I'm not a I'm not a dictation maxi.
52:03
I find it uh I think it's >> uh very offensive to send people voice notes of any sort >> and so uh I don't do it.
52:10
I don't appreciate when >> Apparently, we have to issue a correction.
52:14
Taylor's over there putting us in the truth zone.
52:16
Apple doesn't have product managers. >> That makes sense.
52:19
There's so many there's this new software every every time I open an app uh made by Apple, there's a new uh there's a new bug.
52:26
Uh it is uh the software is a lot of it.
52:29
I mean, yeah, I'm now living with the new iOS iOS 1700 uh for >> for a month or so now. >> It's 26.
52:41
They're on the car release schedule now, right?
52:44
>> Um living with it for a while, I can I feel like they made every app worse with the new update.
52:49
>> You're still upset about it.
52:51
>> Yeah, I still >> I'm fine.
52:54
>> I I It's not the end of the world, but every app design think is worse.
52:56
I expected to just I expected to like get used to some of the new stuff and I'm still like oh the photo app >> skill issue just get used to it.
53:04
Um I'm getting used to it.
53:06
I feel like a lot of these apps to the truth >> says in the X chat truth zone to the true zone they historically have not had PMS but that recently >> okay >> yeah OTP agrees. >> Wow.
53:22
Apple does have have PMs.
53:25
Taylor, bro, I'm incorrect.
53:30
Oh, well, I'm glad we have a debate in the chat going.
53:32
Um, well, uh, I know for a fact that Apple does have data analysts.
53:37
I don't know if they use Julius AI, but they should because Julius is the AI data analyst that works for you.
53:45
Connect your data, ask questions in plain English, and get answers in seconds.
53:51
>> Mark German says, "The Germinator." The Germinator.
53:55
Arc Germinator himself says Apple executives have floated the idea of combining hardware engineering and hardware technologies divisions as one combined group under Shroi in order to retain him.
54:06
>> Uh so this is of course uh Apple's uh chip chief >> John Johnny hopefully I'm pronouncing that correctly.
54:15
>> Chip chief >> uh the chip chief informed CEO Tim Cook he is seriously considering leaving the company and would likely continue his career elsewhere rather than retire.
54:24
Apple is urgently pushing to keep him.
54:26
He remains at least for now.
54:26
Uh according to the Germinator, uh the Germinator says um again they're floating the idea of combining hardware engineering and hardware technologies as one combined group under Shoe in order to retain him, but that couldn't happen until and if John Turnis becomes CEO.
54:45
This would make Shoe the clear number two. Mhm.
54:49
>> Um, in more important news, Mark Newsome, Apple, the designer of the Apple Watch, just released a new uh watch himself.
54:57
Uh, >> and uh, it is mechanical and costs uh, only 60,000.
55:05
>> That's a video, by the way. Play the Play this. This is a crazy video. Look at this.
55:08
The The dial is spinning and Yeah. Wow.
55:13
It really looks like UFO inspired. Uh, it's $60,000.
55:18
jumping straight into the the Holy Trinity tier, I suppose.
55:21
Um, what's your what's your honest review on this?
55:27
>> I think it looks very cool.
55:27
I've never thought I want a watch that looks like it's in the same universe as the Apple Watch. >> Sure.
55:35
>> But at the same time, I can really respect >> Yeah.
55:38
>> I really I think this looks very cool.
55:40
And I think there's a consumer out there where they were like, "Finally, somebody made a watch for me. I love this." >> Yeah.
55:45
Should it be sold by Apple?
55:50
Apple, the Apple store has a number of products that are not created by Apple.
55:56
You can go and get I mean they had a partnership with Beats for a while.
55:58
They wind up acquiring Beats.
55:59
They also will sell different, you know, stands and USB hubs and cases and all sorts of different, you know, accessories that sort of live in the Apple world but aren't directly Apple products or made by Apple.
56:13
Should this be sold at the Apple store? What do you think?
56:18
60K feels like a different tier, but I feel like if I'm trying to sell something for 60K, I' i'd go to the Apple store and say, you know, a lot of people with 60K to spend on a watch walk into the Apple store and pick up a couple laptops.
56:31
>> Uh Nick, new challenge.
56:31
Get Mark Newsome on the show. >> Okay.
56:36
>> And we will talk with him about it.
56:38
>> Also, get on graphite.
56:38
dev code review for the age of AI.
56:41
Graphite help teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster.
56:47
Um, well, let's keep moving on in the timeline.
56:51
Uh, >> Theo agrees with uh with Justin Bieber.
56:56
He is entirely correct here. I agree with Theo.
57:00
>> Well, we got to pull this uh video up of uh Bill Aman. Yes. In Japan.
57:08
>> Uh, this is an incredible aura farm.
57:10
There's something so interesting about being caught on, you know, another country's television, it looks like.
57:14
Uh, so this is >> I couldn't tell if this was actual TV or or streamers. >> Who knows?
57:21
It just has an incredible vibe to it.
57:23
So, it's a Japanese show.
57:23
Is that man's face blurred out?
57:26
Why is his face blurred out like that? >> Maybe.
57:31
I mean, that's a respectful thing to do if you didn't want to be >> Oh, yeah.
57:34
I guess they didn't sign a release, so they can't have him play it >> here.
57:38
Can you turn it up a little bit?
57:38
I like that she's such a fan.
57:46
>> She's such a fan of Bill Aman. Can you start it over?
57:48
You missed the beginning. >> And these graphics. Is that Bill Aman? Bill Aman. >> Japanese TV. See TV.
58:05
The graphics package is electric.
58:05
You saw the little You saw the You see the the stars and the and Yeah. Right there.
58:12
And if you go back a little bit, there's like it's like a puff of smoke that comes off of the text.
58:15
Uh we don't know how to make text like that.
58:17
We don't know how to make Chirons like that in America.
58:20
Look at our Chirons just getting mogged by the the Japanese TV channel with uh >> Somebody says, "Did that woman just pull a Japanese may I meet you on him?" >> Yes, 100%.
58:31
That's exactly what happened.
58:36
Why did Andy post all quiet on the frontal lobe? That's very funny. That just cracks me up. Uh, Privy.
58:43
Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rails, spin up secure white label wallets, sign transactions, integrate onchain infrastructure, all through one simple API.
58:54
Um, prediction markets are absolutely tearing up the timeline.
58:57
They are the current thing every every day. Uh, the debate rages.
59:02
Um, this one's hilarious from Aaron Mars.
59:06
He says, "Prediction markets will replace buying stuff.
59:08
I want someone to bring Kiwis to my house.
59:12
I make a prediction market about whether someone will deliver four Kiwis to my doorstep and load $15 into no."
59:16
A guy with an ebike sees it and picks up some kiwis.
59:22
Before dropping them off on my doorstep, he bets yes. Drops them off.
59:27
The market resolves to yes, and he gets $15.
59:28
Rest in peace, Amazon, Door Dash, Uber Eats, etc.
59:32
SA comes in and says, "Prediction markets will replace relationships.
59:36
I have a crush on your girlfriend.
59:38
I make a prediction market about whether she will leave you for me and load $15 into no."
59:43
She sees this and drives over to my place before texting me. She's here. She bets yes. She comes inside.
59:52
The market resolves to yes, and she gets $15.
59:55
Rest in peace, Tinder, Bumble, Hinge, Bria, Bars, restaurants, etc. It's >> so insane.
1:00:03
Yeah, the uh the the the mood the prediction markets are fighting an uphill battle right now.
1:00:08
They're on they're on life support.
1:00:10
Uh prediction, it's such a good such a good um such a good copy pasta.
1:00:16
And I and I I I can only imagine the quote tweets on this post just being like an endless an endless stream of of iterations of this exact template because it truly is so so so funny.
1:00:29
uh the the financialization of everything.
1:00:32
Well, uh Robin Hansen, who's sort of known as the creator of the prediction market, uh do you do you know a little bit more about his background? He's economist. >> Yeah.
1:00:43
I mean, he he was writing about prediction markets or like decision markets since like the '90s. Yeah.
1:00:47
>> And he has this whole idea of like futarchy where you like run the government based off prediction markets. >> Interesting.
1:00:52
Um he basically Brian uh Brian Armstrong was like suggesting that poly maker uh policy makers could one day just ask people how should we grow the economy and then let >> prediction markets decide. >> Sorry. >> Yeah.
1:01:09
Anyway, I will read Robin Hansen's post while Jordy recovers.
1:01:12
He might need a little bit of a break.
1:01:14
A little bit of holiday spirit getting up his nose.
1:01:16
uh Robinson >> on this podcast in a can.
1:01:22
I've been asked what do I think of Koshi and Poly Market?
1:01:24
These are still very early days.
1:01:26
My vision which I started to articulate in the '9s is of a is a world uh is of a world very different from both the world then and the world of today.
1:01:36
A world where markets are accepted as offering more accurate estimates on far more useful topics.
1:01:40
So I'm mostly interested in the potential of stuff today to enable and cause that future vision.
1:01:46
The politics policy questions on poly market and kshi trending now seem plausibly like topics where some people might find their estimates useful in making personal or collective choices but I don't have great confidence in that or know who these people are.
1:02:03
So I think that like we saw a glimmer of this in the sense that if you were running a business that stood to benefit from the Trump administration or or hurt be because of the Trump administration maybe tariffs or something like if you were manufacturing t-shirts in China and you were like okay if Trump wins there'll probably be more tariffs probably another trade war.
1:02:26
What's the probability that Trump wins?
1:02:28
probability that Trump wins? what's the probability that I have to do a red the fire drill a code red to yeah to to move my manufacturing to Singapore or something um you could make a business decision based on that I agree with him like I don't really know how many people were doing that seriously and also the prediction markets were like 55% you
1:02:46
know it wasn't it wasn't like 90% it wasn't like that clear yeah it wasn't like oh everyone just knows what's going to happen it was like oh yeah like you know slight edge this way >> I feel like people remember when they think of prediction markets on the election night, they remember like actually on election night when it did start to go towards like 90% and beyond. Totally. And Totally.
1:03:08
And >> but yeah, I mean, if you're trying to plan for like an a forthcoming Trump administration, it's not like you could go to prediction markets four months earlier and get like a definitive correct answer.
1:03:20
Like that's just not the way that's not not just not the way it played out. Um but he continues.
1:03:24
He says, "But if these systems continue to grow in size and to attract users and competitors, they could lower many of the costs of creating and managing such markets, allowing a lot more experimentation with markets like those I find more promising."
1:03:37
Remy my long-term vision.
1:03:39
Of course, if these systems induce a backlash that gets them outlawed or drastically shrunk, that may plausibly block or at least long delay my vision.
1:03:49
I don't personally mind people having fun knowingly betting on sports, on actions that celebrities can influence or on topics where insiders have big info advantages like mention markets.
1:04:01
Um, but I see many people complaining about these things and I fear a new prudish temperance movement may shut them down and as a side effect shut down the more promising markets that I've envisioned.
1:04:15
It's an interesting take.
1:04:17
I I I think it's a really big it's a really big question on the prediction markets.
1:04:21
It's not like there's there's the there's a positive and a normative side of these things.
1:04:26
So in economics there's positive questions, normative.
1:04:29
Normative is like what should happen. >> Yeah.
1:04:32
>> And positive is what will happen.
1:04:32
And so there's a question I think a lot of people on the timeline are debating uh are they're debating uh prediction markets on moral grounds on what should happen.
1:04:43
they they they have a thesis on uh I believe that that that this is great and and this is good and it should it should proliferate or or I think it's bad and and it should be shut down immediately.
1:04:54
There aren't that many people that are actually thinking clearly right now about like what will happen like where how how big will these markets be?
1:05:01
How prevalent will they be?
1:05:03
You know, sports betting has gotten a lot easier, but you know, it hasn't taken over everyone.
1:05:08
Like I know a lot of people that don't sports bet.
1:05:09
I don't personally sports bet.
1:05:11
Uh even though it's now available probably on my phone, um I'm sure I could figure out how to do it without needing to go to Las Vegas, uh it hasn't come for me.
1:05:20
It hasn't just it hasn't it hasn't just like come and suck me in.
1:05:24
Uh and so we have Sucker and Jetty coming on the show on Friday uh to debate some of this more in more detail.
1:05:29
But I think that there's an interesting separation to just try and understand what will happen.
1:05:33
And he's so he's saying um you know he fears a new prudish temperance movement which is very clearly real.
1:05:40
lots of people dunking on this stuff may shut them down. I don't know.
1:05:43
It's unclear like will there actually be action related to the prudish temperance movement or will the prudish temperance movement be confined to spicy quote tweets, right?
1:05:56
And and >> yeah, it's it's also it's also possible to get to the future that he's envisioned since the '9s, you need to have sports markets. >> Yeah.
1:06:04
And that again is not necessarily maybe how he would want things to evolve, but it might be a necessary step to bring enough users to some of these applications >> uh to uh have the durability and the attention necessarily to to create some of these other markets.
1:06:19
But I think I think so many people are just absolutely sick of the marketing um from uh and and just the feuding between Kali and Poly Market.
1:06:28
uh that part of part of people's prediction.
1:06:32
>> Insiders are insiders are outsiders don't even know the difference >> for sure.
1:06:36
I'm talking about on X they just think like oh financialization of everything is bad >> X specifically. Yeah.
1:06:41
>> Like if we were on X and like FanDuel and DraftKings were just constantly going at each other all day long.
1:06:47
Everyone would just be like please leave. >> Oh no no no.
1:06:50
I I I I think they are like I think I think I I we have the CEO of DraftKings coming on the show tomorrow, but uh but I I I do think that uh that that the that the traditional sports betting world is is also just very cutthroat >> though.
1:07:05
I mean, it's such a >> Dude, go back and go back and read some of the uh >> No, no, I'm not.
1:07:10
>> Go back and read about the the development of Las Vegas like Caesar versus MGM.
1:07:14
Like these were knockout dragout fights.
1:07:17
These were not like, oh yeah, everyone was like positive sum building.
1:07:22
>> I'm just saying I I would be surprised if you have like a marketing manager at DraftKings like take like saying like hateful things to a marketing manager at FanDuel in the year 2025 on the internet.
1:07:34
>> We we need to watch Casino because I I believe in Casino.
1:07:37
They did things much worse than that.
1:07:38
And not that casino is a documentary, but uh I do think >> in the chat says, "I talked to the presidents of the National Hockey League and an MLB team about how mad the prediction market marketing was. They agree pure slop." >> Yeah. Yeah. It's a crazy time.
1:07:52
Um time time to study the greats. Time to study history.
1:07:57
Time to study AIO, the AI native CRM.
1:08:01
Adio builds, scales, and grows your company to the next level.
1:08:02
And the next level of this show is Delian Aspu, partner at Founders Fund, co-founder of Varda Space Industries in the Reream Waiting Room.
1:08:13
Now he's in the TBP and Ultradome.
1:08:15
And if I'm not in correct, are you in Miami?
1:08:19
>> Uh, you know, there's uh, you know, so Sunshine in California as well. Okay.
1:08:23
Sometimes it sometimes does feel like it.
1:08:25
>> I'm just wondering about your your backdrop.
1:08:27
Uh, is this San Francisco? Where are we? Where are we?
1:08:29
Take us I mean, you're so used to seeing you in the Va office. True.
1:08:32
Today you're catching me in the Prescidio.
1:08:34
If it's too bright, let me know.
1:08:35
But I think turn down the blinds.
1:08:37
But I like uh I like just getting blasted with sunshine whenever I can. >> Great.
1:08:40
>> I think it's actually uh I think it's actually adjusting. So you look great. Um >> I feel great. >> Fantastic.
1:08:46
Um take us through uh take take us through the It's been a while since we caught up.
1:08:50
Thank you for hopping on the show after a a hiatus and breaking your silence.
1:08:54
Um I I I want you know the quick update on Jerick Isaacman first.
1:09:00
uh what's the status of things there?
1:09:03
What are the implications?
1:09:03
Uh what's the mood in the in the space economy?
1:09:08
What's the mood amongst your team? Are people excited?
1:09:11
Are people thinking that that's going to move forward? >> Yeah.
1:09:15
Look, I think I can't imagine you're sort of a better you sort of leader for NASA um than you know, sort of Jared, right?
1:09:21
Somebody that like literally is like willing to put their life on the line and actually do some of the like I mean he did literally the first commercial spacew walk that's ever been done in human history, right?
1:09:27
Um, so he's like, you know, putting his neck on the line, but then also somebody who's obviously built a phenomenal business and understands, you know, how to think about ROI, how to manage a workforce, you know, how to think about connection into, you know, capital markets.
1:09:39
And so, um, yeah, I would generally generally say like across the entire commercial space industry, like, you know, ecstasic mood, um, you know, my like, you know, various moles in the US Senate, etc.
1:09:48
Make it seem that, you know, things are all, you know, sort of, you know, tracking on plan and, you know, going going well there.
1:09:53
know, going going well there. um he's definitely got to you know sort of pay the piper and you know shake hands and everything but uh he's you know you know uh done that and then in some ways it's like the likelihood that they pull it
1:10:03
for a second time it's like man you already you know shot the guy down to the ground once like you know can't can't do it again so feel highly likely I think like there's a ton of implications you know for that probably
1:10:11
the one that I you know get excited for the most you know just as an American um is the likelihood that we make sure that we you know sort of beat the Chinese you back to the moon I think just you increase significantly you sort of through there's already, you know, some
1:10:26
rumors starting to, you know, you know, come out of, um, his interest in starting to get, you know, more and more options to the table in terms of how we, you know, sort of get to the moon, uh, beyond what's been, you know, sort of currently contracted. And so, um, I like
1:10:35
And so, um, I like that and I like, you know, I think we talked about this in some of like our prior, you know, sort of discussions.
1:10:42
But I really like this program called clips, um, within the Lunar program where basically rather than trying to set a budget and say, here's how I want you to build XYZ thing, the way that they basically pay contractors is, um, just a flat fee for each kilogram of down mass down to the lunar surface.
1:10:57
Basically, it's just like, you know, you get something onto the moon, we basically give you, I forget, I think it's like basically $100,000 basically a kilogram.
1:11:02
But like you get margin on that, you figure out how to do it cheaper. Great. That's all on you.
1:11:06
But that's like to me where NASA should be.
1:11:09
It's like for these like things that aren't yet really commercial and don't make sense, be the first buyer, establish the market, and then that's what kickstarts basically the commercial, you know, sort of economy side of it.
1:11:17
Um, so that's obviously been like a ton of activity.
1:11:20
Obviously, there's a whole set of SpaceX things, you know, that have been, you know, sort of happening over the past year sort of month.
1:11:25
Yeah, let's let's pause on this on the SpaceX stuff.
1:11:27
I want to stay on uh on NASA.
1:11:29
The the way I was thinking about uh Jared Isaacman uh and just kind of framing like the broader discussion of the lunar economy, the this the the orbital economy was uh this idea of like are you a Mars guy or a moon guy in the short term?
1:11:45
And and I don't know if this is like too simplistic, so maybe you can just bring a bunch of nuance, but it does feel like, you know, Elon has been beating the drum on like Mars, Mars, Mars, and like maybe the moon is like, you know, a pit stop along the way.
1:11:57
And then some other folks, some of the more legacy space flight providers are a little bit more focused on the tractable get to the moon.
1:12:06
But then you have different folks breaking different ways like Casey Hanmer's really obsessed with beating China to the moon.
1:12:12
Uh obviously Mike Salana at Founders Fine is Moon should be a state.
1:12:16
Uh and and and and and there's a whole bunch of different things, but is there do you think that there's a real trade-off between like should we be prioritizing moon or Mars in the short term?
1:12:25
How how do you think about that?
1:12:28
You know, when I think about like why Elon was so dead set on this like, you know, call it, you know, five years ago, 10 years ago, um I think it had more to do with the fact that um the moon can be seen as a distraction if our capabilities as a species are limited because the moon is not a place where you can send up a you know sort of permanent colony that is you know so sustainable and independent of Earth, right?
1:12:49
You know, sort of no atmosphere terraforming is impossible in some ways like you know because of that likely to be highly highly dependent on Earth.
1:12:55
it's not really like a backup, you know, sort of function, you know, you know, relative to, you know, sort of Mars.
1:12:59
And so when I think about like Elon of 10 years ago, it was basically like, look, we're so decrepit as a industry in the United States or, you know, across the globe that if we like set a goal, we need to like really keep the goal very very focused and so you have to go straight to Mars.
1:13:13
I think just like the world of today is fundamentally very different where we're just like much more capable of an industry in terms of just like you know I don't know if you guys saw this but I tweeted that you know in November was the first time in human history where there were more orbital rocket launches than there were days in the month. That's right.
1:13:27
That's the first time that's ever happened you know in human history.
1:13:30
Um and so that obviously you points to like we just like are much more capable as a species.
1:13:36
And so in that world of more call like space abundance, um I don't worry as much and I admit that I've always been more in the like the moon is absolutely the right pit stop on the way to Mars and you know advocated for that for a long time.
1:13:48
Um and I think in this world of abundance it's a lot easier to see that and now you even have Elon you know in some ways has totally reversed course of like yeah he talked about like making a mass driver on the moon.
1:13:56
So you make like huge amounts of solar panels and data centers there and then are shipping them up you know basically you know to orbit.
1:14:01
Um >> mass driver define that. Um, yes. One second.
1:14:06
We just uh shut the blinds real quick. >> No worries.
1:14:08
While he's shutting the blinds, let me do an ad read for Cognition.
1:14:12
Cognition is the team behind the AI software engineer Devon.
1:14:14
Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team.
1:14:19
He's also an investor, so I don't feel bad doing an ad read for his own company.
1:14:25
>> I feel like I just kind of got paid for that a little bit, too.
1:14:26
Like, yeah, you know, Rob's got woo, baby.
1:14:28
So, >> if it was a if it was a competitor to FF, I wouldn't do it.
1:14:32
But I I got to sneak these things in.
1:14:34
Got to pay the bills over here.
1:14:35
Uh anyway, so take us through what is a mass driver on the moon.
1:14:40
>> So um on Earth, um uh there's been a variety of ways that we've hypothesized basically, you know, sort of getting things up to orbit.
1:14:46
Only one that is, you know, sort of really worked, right?
1:14:49
Uh which is basically, you know, chemical combustion, you know, put, you know, liquid fuel and an oxidizer, you know, basically um you know, in a rocket and launch up to space.
1:14:58
>> There's people that have tried to work on um other alternatives.
1:14:59
So, um, if you guys remember Spin Launch, the company that would basically spin things up really, really fast, >> yeet aerospace.
1:15:05
They would ye it out into the aeros space.
1:15:09
>> Um, so that's the spin version.
1:15:09
You could also imagine the like rocket or like you know, sled version.
1:15:13
It's like an electromagnetic sled that is super super long.
1:15:16
So rather than like spinning fast, you basically like, you know, have like a mag lev train effectively, but just like many many miles long.
1:15:21
So you get it up space and shoot it up.
1:15:23
Um now the reason that that's difficult on Earth is um down here on the surface where the spin launches or the mag left sled thing would be are still in the atmosphere and so by the time you're getting to like you know caught if you got to orbital velocity you're still like in this thick atmosphere and so just like crazy heat crazy drag etc.
1:15:39
And so really difficult EW basically to do and so it's basically why we effectively use rockets is because like they have a way of starting off slowly while they're in the atmosphere getting out of it and then going more quickly once you're out of the atmosphere.
1:15:51
Um on the moon there is no atmosphere.
1:15:54
Um and so the advantage there is you can basically set up effectively like a you know mag left track.
1:15:59
You also don't have to go that fast because the moon's gravity well is way less.
1:16:03
Um and so it's super easy to basically like imagine a world where we you know mine a bunch of like very simple metals and things like that on the moon.
1:16:09
Make this like magnet train and now all of a sudden you just have something on the moon that you can like point towards Earth if you want to like send something into like lower earth orbit.
1:16:16
But also now if you want to like point it out to Jupiter or Mars etc.
1:16:19
It's just like a phenomenal effectively you can think of it as like train station effectively where like I wouldn't be surprised that even if we are going to Mars there's a world where like you know yeah maybe the humans are just going straight from earth to Mars
1:16:30
but I wouldn't be surprised if like a lot of the materials or metals or like you know produce things especially if we have like an industrial outpost on the moon the moon is the one that is like sending the solar panels to Mars or is sending the bioreactors or like the like agricultural equipment etc. That stuff's
1:16:41
That stuff's all coming from the moon because it's like literally basically like free to effectively like send it um um send it to Mars. Yeah.
1:16:49
>> And so that's an idea that's been talked about in sci-fi for a long time.
1:16:52
Partially in some ways it's also like it's the best weapon in the world.
1:16:54
Um in that like you can just shoot a rock, you know, at the really fast and then hit, you know, anybody that you want and you basically can't stop it.
1:17:01
Um but yeah, >> speaking of space weapons, is there any movement on Golden Dome?
1:17:09
>> Um uh so I don't know if you guys saw, but uh MDA, uh basically put out this um shield, um Idiq for where they're going to do a lot of the Golden Dome work, not all of it.
1:17:18
Um uh they I want to say it was like now two Wednesdays ago.
1:17:20
Um maybe it was a little earlier than that.
1:17:24
Um maybe it was last week.
1:17:24
Um but uh they basically announced that about I think it was 3,000 people had applied to be a part of the program.
1:17:30
Um you know about a thousand contractors basically got awarded to be on contract um and to you know sort of um you know acknowledge my colleagues.
1:17:38
Thank you to the you know Varta team for putting together a great proposal and technology and we got to be a part of that.
1:17:43
Um, still would say all the stuff is, you know, sort of, you know, early in that, um, there's definitely some, you know, the Space Force actually announced that they, uh, you know, gave out their first, uh, space-based intercept, uh, contracts.
1:17:54
They didn't, um, name who won those contracts because of national security reasons, but yeah, you're starting to see stuff that was like, you know, sort of theorized early on in the admin.
1:17:59
Um, and now Space Force has obviously handed out those first contracts.
1:18:03
Missile Events Agency has handed out those first contracts.
1:18:06
Um, and so becoming real, I'd say in terms of like first demos, fielded capabilities, you're still a little ways away.
1:18:12
I think by like end of next year, you'll probably start to see some of the first stuff really, you know, start happening.
1:18:16
know, start happening. And then in 2027 is where I think you'll just have a bunch of like, you know, demonstrations across everything from like space radar or space intercept, you know, space to ground stuff um you know you know
1:18:27
advanced ground radar systems, advanced hypersonic interceptors that come from the ground um from all these you know sort of new um you know both your traditional you know sort of primes and some of these like neoprimes um you know coming to the table for golden dome. So
1:18:38
So um yeah becoming real.
1:18:39
I think the important thing for something like Golden Dome is like you want to make sure that um if there's a change in administration, you get to keep some of the advancement capabilities.
1:18:48
And the best way to ensure that happens is like make sure that they're fielded.
1:18:51
Like if a new admin comes in and it's still like an R&D land, it's easier for them to cancel it versus like if it's something that like the war fighter literally like has access to and is using.
1:18:59
Well, then it's like you know sort of much more likely that um you know much more likely um that they're going to you know should keep it keep it around because the war fighter will insist on like hey we like built this and we use it and this helps us deter China.
1:19:10
Why would we like unfund it basically? >> Yeah.
1:19:13
>> Do you have any idea how uh Jared thinks about the NASA budget?
1:19:16
It was about $25 billion last year.
1:19:18
I could see one stance where it's like $25 billion is a lot of money and it's enough. We can do a lot with it.
1:19:24
There's another I could also imagine him being like we got to get those numbers up.
1:19:29
>> Um I think politically right now the you know White House's budget was actually less than you know 25 billion.
1:19:34
Um and so the likelihood of him you know coming out politically and saying I want more probably doesn't totally jive with like you know hey Trump just reappointed you.
1:19:43
Um, but I think keeping it flat but using it far more efficiently that I can see him being like a huge advocate for and like yeah he's made it pretty damn clear.
1:19:50
We've talked about this before but like >> I mean especially now with you know one thing oh one thing that we haven't talked about you know is New Glenn right like you know for the first time we have a second you know orbital rocket that is reusable in the United States and by the way that thing is like really big right like you know much larger than a Falcon 9.
1:20:05
And so at this point when you've got both Starship flying regularly and you have New Glenn flying regularly, the idea of like NASA still building rockets through the like SLS program is like even more crazy because it's like you have multiple commercial providers and by the way like Neutron from you know Rocket Lab will probably be online next year.
1:20:19
Stoke space will be online.
1:20:19
So um I think the exciting you know thing about you know Jared is just like a a strong willingness to go slash out budgets that are things that the commercial industry is already doing more effectively more cheaply and then go assign that to things like clips, lunar landings, etc.
1:20:35
where I think Jared is going to be the advocate of keep it at 25 because there's just like a bunch of things that like are very large programs that now can effectively just be cut to zero. >> Yeah.
1:20:49
>> Do you know what's going on with asteroid Bennu?
1:20:51
They discovered some some like sugars sugar stardust.
1:20:54
This was like last week it got announced but we we didn't really get a chance to cover it. >> Yeah.
1:21:02
So um you know uh funny story of this um so if you remember um the first VA mission where we got stuck up in orbit right uh we launched in June of 2023 the original goal was to land in August September of 2023.
1:21:12
Part of why we chose where we were going to land was because there had been some early like um cosmic you know sort of dust and uh both sorry solar um dust and co uh asteroid dust missions that had landed in that same range.
1:21:26
But the other reason that we chose it was because in um uh it was going to be Halloween of I believe 23 Osiris Rex the asteroid sample mission from Bennu was also going to land there.
1:21:36
land there. Um uh obviously we ultimately ended up getting delayed and so rather than VA being first in the asteroid you know mission coming in and said it was the other order asteroid mission came in but point being our team
1:21:47
paid a lot of attention to that asteroid sample coming in given that like that was sort of the precedent for Varta being able to you basically come back uh from space um and that mission was the one that had the venue um samples on board. >> Okay. So it's just now it's just now >> Okay.
1:21:57
So it's just now it's just now getting like disclosed or or talked about. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:22:02
basically um you know obviously with something this material and significant like you want to make sure that you've you know dotted the eyes and cross the tees and also like it takes time to go analyze these samples and like handle it etc.
1:22:10
So yeah, the asteroid sample, yeah, landed like I want to say October, November of 2023.
1:22:16
Um, and now obviously this is all starting to get published 2 years later.
1:22:19
Uh, what they effectively, you know, sort of showed was that on the asteroid, um, you have effectively like the building blocks of, you know, life.
1:22:24
Uh, which, you know, yeah, uh, uh, which, uh, and this is my favorite, you know, term in the world, uh, uh, um, uh, build more data for the panspermia, um, hypothesis.
1:22:36
Um so the panspermia um hypothesis is that uh uh the early building blocks of life are plentiful uh in the universe.
1:22:45
Um and a part of how um they um get distributed in the universe is through um you know basically collisions that end up you know you have like you know some early protolanet it collides with some other big planet um and then there's crazy asteroids that get sent out at high speed but those asteroids have a little bit of like sugars and ribos etc.
1:23:02
That's what actually like basically like incepts planet on a future or incepts life on a future basically planet.
1:23:07
One of my favorite graphs um that I saw you know um which I could you pull this up right now but um uh if you look at the average length of a genome on Earth over various periods of time right if we look at like old fossils etc.
1:23:24
um the most complex genome basically has a perfect linear relationship between basically the age of earth um and the you know sort of genomic length.
1:23:34
>> The thing though is if you were to extrapolate that line downwards if you go to when the start of earth is um it was already at a relatively complex genome like if you look at like the length of a human genome the length of bacteria length of virus etc.
1:23:45
It would predict that earth has not been around long enough to have the level of complexity of genomes that we have given this linear relationship.
1:23:54
And so it strongly supports the idea that like the reason we have life on earth is actually like there were some earlier solar system planet etc that did the early building blocks and got a certain stage and then kicked us off because like it collided with something some asteroid then went and landed on earth and the building blocks sort of started us you know a little further in that like you know trajectory of life.
1:24:13
basically the plot of Prometheus. >> Exactly. Yeah.
1:24:19
>> So if you look at sort of the like Fermy's you know sort of paradox >> what this implies is that highly likely the great filter is actually basically behind humanity in that like um given that this likely suggests that there is
1:24:32
you know sort of the building blocks of life all over earth but that we do not yet see signals it means that there's probably some filter that makes it difficult to go from like early building blocks to intelligence more so than you
1:24:46
know basically like intelligence being you you know uh you know risky for you know being able to like spread out into the stars and so it is there's this great graph that showed like um all the potential you know basically like um
1:24:57
answers to the Fermies paradox but this one basically shifted it significantly towards the world of like there is abundant um non-intelligent life in the universe and we just happen to be the first intelligent one. Um and as we go
1:25:08
Um and as we go out we will probably see lots of early building blocks and as we spread we may start to see other very early you know sort of life you know sort of planets that maybe are just getting into bacteria or like early mammals and things like that.
1:25:21
So um >> yeah it's really exciting time means the universe is plentiful in terms of life. >> That's f fascinating.
1:25:27
Uh poly market just uh skyrocketing on the odds of UFO disclosure.
1:25:32
Are you are you long or short aliens being real?
1:25:37
Um I mean especially with this panserbia hypothesis like you know very you know sort of you know long um I think there's obviously some sort of insider gov info that is coming out like you see a polymark market like that spike so much somebody knows something and is driven on it.
1:25:51
Um so you know what I love about poly market it's like people are like is it insider trading and it's like yes that's the point.
1:26:00
>> Finally saying saying it out loud. >> Yeah. Yeah. That's that's wild.
1:26:02
Um what what about uh I mean I I want to go through a bunch of stuff. Um I >> SpaceX stuff. >> Yeah.
1:26:12
I mean I imagine that you can't comment on the actual like IPO rumors, but uh I would be interested to hear about like what you know key like looking back on 20 25 for that company looking forward to 26.
1:26:23
What are you excited about?
1:26:25
Uh and then also like what do you think people might misunderstand about SpaceX uh that uh that that you know is the story that we start seeing told maybe if they hypothetically go public one day. >> Yeah. Let's see.
1:26:41
Um, you know, to me, um, it feels like the company's like, you know, sort of very on track in that, um, you know, when people started talking about Starship in like 2020 21, I remember telling people like, look, this is like super exciting.
1:26:55
But if you just look at the complexity of that vehicle relative to Falcon 9, it's a huge step up in complexity, but that's also roughly the step up in terms of like size of company that SpaceX is and complexity that they can take on.
1:27:05
And so then my like quick math is like well then it'll probably take about just as fal as much time as Falcon 9 to get to like you know true production rate.
1:27:12
And so there were people that were like no they'll be like you know like fully online by 25 commercial flying super regularly and I always remember saying in like 2020 I was like I don't think that that's going to you know sort of be the case.
1:27:22
I think it'll be closer to like end of decade because that's you know roughly the time frame that Falcon 9 you know sort of took. Yep.
1:27:27
>> Um and so that's where I kind of see them where it's like yeah they like are obviously making phenomenal progress you know sort of with Starship.
1:27:31
Um, I don't think that we're going to be seeing like, you know, you know, this year it's going to be on the order of, I forget, I think like 200, you know, sort of Falcon 9, you know, sort of rocket launches.
1:27:38
I don't think that we're going to see 200 Starship launches until, yeah, probably end of decade would still be my like, you know, sort of rough bet.
1:27:44
Um, but I still think it's like a really phenomenal outcome.
1:27:48
>> Yeah, they're going they're going similarly on on timing and speed, but they're blowing up more rockets than Falcon 9 because I think the third Falcon 9 rocket was successful, something like that.
1:27:57
Uh, and >> yes, but they had a bunch of landings that they blew up, which is a more complex market.
1:28:02
Like, you know, people forget that like Yeah.
1:28:04
I mean, for what it's worth, Starship is already functional and online.
1:28:07
It's just like not, you know, fully reusable. >> Yeah.
1:28:10
I I think a lot of people I think a lot of people misunderstand that like when it's blowing up, it's usually blowing up like on the way down.
1:28:14
Like, it's not It very quickly was like, okay, it takes off successfully.
1:28:18
It gets up to the top and then it and then it starts blowing up on the way down.
1:28:23
>> Bounces off the No, no, no, no, no, no.
1:28:26
It's not bouncing off anything.
1:28:26
It is in fact going to space. >> It is going to space. >> It is Space is real.
1:28:32
Space is real here on this show.
1:28:36
>> It glances off the top. >> That's very funny. Um, okay. Are are you Yeah. Sorry. Continue.
1:28:43
>> I was going to say, yeah, people under appreciate that like Starship is actually a very successful rocket already.
1:28:46
Um, it can take things up to orbit at like very large scale at very cheap prices literally today.
1:28:50
It just happens to be that like Yeah.
1:28:51
They're still figuring out the landing thing, but obviously they want to figure that out before they get to like super mass production rate.
1:28:57
>> Um I think the other story that is really going to start to be told is um just their shift to like more things that are, you know, extraterrestrial and that like you are going to see SpaceX do I think some very impressive things that are way beyond the bounds of lower Earth orbit over the coming, you know, sort of couple years.
1:29:12
Obviously, they have a huge contract with NASA to like figure out how to land things on the moon and that type of activity is something that they like are spending a lot of resources on internally.
1:29:19
But I don't think it's like that public of a story relative to like Starship, Starlink, etc.
1:29:25
>> I saw something uh I saw I saw this like uh article that had like all these motion graphics uh very cool and it was explaining star how Starship will take stuff to the moon and it was something like they're going to do like 26 refuelings in space and then get that just feels like we in the 60s we could just go straight there and now we got to stop for gas 26 times.
1:29:46
Like why should I not be blackmailed on this?
1:29:49
Is this like this is crazy?
1:29:51
It just seems crazy to me, but break it down.
1:29:53
What's actually going on?
1:29:55
>> Um, so funny um historical fact from the like Apollo days, there was actually a huge um debate internally at NASA whether or not to take the um like fuel stop approach versus the like shoot straight for the moon approach. Okay.
1:30:08
>> Um there was a significant chunk of NASA led by it was like Pete something I want to say that really wanted to do the gas station approach.
1:30:14
The reason being that they saw that as what would make it so that going to the moon was just much more long-term sustainable because you have these like pieces of infrastructure and it's easy to like send things mission by mission without each individual mission basically being super risky. Yeah.
1:30:27
>> And the other you know side of the approach which was just shoot straight for the moon was largely led by Verer von Braun.
1:30:32
A part of why he liked the shoot straight for the moon thing is because it allowed him to just make one really really big rocket rather than launching lots of small rockets.
1:30:38
Um and I think he was just like addicted to put one out.
1:30:41
I do think probably that was the right call for the time and allowed to like pick up your skis etc.
1:30:46
>> But counterintuitively the like refueling and you know sort of fuel stations approach is actually the just like the much more long-term sustainable one and that like as we think about like you know going to Mars very regularly going to the moon.
1:30:58
>> You don't want to necessarily have to take on the risk of like you know just like on a car trip you don't take all your fuel literally with you like your gas along the way and that makes it so that the vehicle that is moving things is much simpler. Same thing here.
1:31:06
You want to set up a more stable logistics and supply chain.
1:31:09
actually do want you basically these types of fuel stops.
1:31:13
>> Um but yeah, that's a part of what SpaceX needs to prove is like um you I think that number that you're citing in terms of number of refuels is more for a full Mars mission for the moon.
1:31:19
I think it's more like three refules.
1:31:23
So it is definitely you know sort of simpler by uh going going to the moon.
1:31:27
>> Also it does seem like we've rebuilt the capacity to just yeet stuff directly to the moon because didn't Firefly land something up there like like and China's going up and stuff direct like like we we we we seriously have checked that box like several times.
1:31:38
It's not even like humans on the moon once.
1:31:39
Like I think we sent six manned missions, right? >> Um. >> Yeah. Exactly. Exactly.
1:31:44
But I think we want to get that to like 600.
1:31:46
It's going to be like through the fuel stop, you know, approach probably.
1:31:48
And what I like is that we're parallel tracking which like the things that Firefly and China have done.
1:31:52
Those things are just amplified by the fuel stop, you know, basically approach when like that, you know, comes online.
1:31:56
So I like that we're parallel tracking it.
1:31:57
And this goes back to a little bit of the Jared Isaacman thing.
1:32:00
Like, man, if I were in Jared Isaacman's shoes right now, I would basically just go to like, you know, NASA and just be like, hey, Fireflies like figured out how to land on the moon, I don't understand why we wouldn't just jam a bunch of funding down their throats and tell them like, don't just do it once a year, but I want you like doing it on a quarterly basis, and I want you to basically now establish like a regular supply chain there.
1:32:17
So, now I can go fund a bunch of companies that are like making lunar humanoids and lunar robots and pavers and solar panel assemblers, etc.
1:32:24
So like while we're in parallel doing the like fuel stop human architecture, we also just like have these direct approaches that are landing robots there.
1:32:32
So we're just like landing equipment there non-stop and figuring out how to like you know basically make sure that by the time the humans are there we actually have like a bunch of like robotic infrastructure that's like you know autonomous and basically set up and so um yeah I think like that that parallel approach >> that that is super sci-fi. I love that.
1:32:49
Uh but that feels like if we can do that we can certainly put some data centers in space.
1:32:52
What's your how's your thinking evolving on that?
1:32:54
Because uh Casey Hammer just came out pro data center in space like you had you had us in the >> Elon's been been posting about it.
1:33:03
>> Yeah, Elon I mean you really kicked the horns because it's like Elon Sundar like this YC company seems to be doing pretty well.
1:33:10
There's like there's like four different attack vectors on you and I love it.
1:33:15
It's contrarian position but are you maintaining it or is your thinking evolving?
1:33:17
Um, look, I'm gonna, you know, uh, uh, maintain my position because no information has changed. Okay.
1:33:25
U, you know, people, you have said words, but they have not presented compelling, you know, sort of arguments. >> Okay.
1:33:30
>> Um, >> where I think there's a little bit of like a gray area is like, look, I currently have two data centers that are in space. >> Sure.
1:33:40
>> I'm not doing like AI comput on them, but I have like a bunch of computers up in space that could go do inference and like training, etc.
1:33:45
Starlink each of the satellites has compute that's on board.
1:33:49
They could be you know basically you know sort of data centers in space.
1:33:51
So I think the question more is like >> you change up your you change up your tune Delian.
1:33:56
You're looking at the next 20 billion public company. >> I think so. Can we smack this?
1:33:59
I saw you hanging out with uh with >> I don't know if you're doing your duty to shareholders in the way that you're spending this. >> Come on. Yeah.
1:34:07
Just stop being so re realistic. >> Too modest. Too modest.
1:34:10
Too much of a >> real We're putting a quantum computer on it too.
1:34:14
It's >> I literally have like multiple shareholders that have opinion and been like, "Okay, like I know that you don't like the data center space thing, but like what if we use the space factories to make things that go into the data center >> exactly fab a little bit and I'm just like love you guys like you know my job is to build a business that like you know delivers revenue and shareholder returns not just pure hype."
1:34:35
Um, but yeah, I think it's where it's like it's on the margin where it's like look, do I think that like the SpaceX like economics are going to beat out like >> nuclearpowered data centers run by Crusoe in Texas? >> No, man. Come on.
1:34:48
Like I just like in order for that to work, you have to be like short nuclear, short, you know, optical fiber on the ground, short the ability to like, you know, build buildings, short solar panels, short batteries.
1:34:58
It's just like all of those things are making incredible progress super rapidly and in space those things are more complex.
1:35:03
are there going to be, you know, sort of marginal, you know, sort of areas and use cases and more broadly as we just like have more and more of like internet and connectivity where there there are real benefits to being in space and so then you by default just have more infrastructure up there.
1:35:16
And so yes, some of those things may be dedicated to compute, but like yeah, is Crusoe almost certainly going to have like better economics than like a space-based data center in 2030?
1:35:23
Yeah, I think that's going to be the case.
1:35:25
And so that might mean that like 98.
1:35:27
5% of data centers, you know, are all on the ground.
1:35:31
the ground. If some small sliver for certain use cases or you're doing like compute on things that are calculated in orbit or like you know um you there's you know cameras, you know, that are up there and you're trying to you should do
1:35:41
things or it's like there's people that are up in orbit and you know they want to catch GBT in orbit then yeah again there might be these like slivers but it's going to be you know feel very confident that it's going to be slivers. Who knows? Maybe we'll look at this Who knows?
1:35:50
Maybe we'll look at this recording in 2032 and like you know I'll been like >> people will be mocking you. dunking on you.
1:35:57
The young The young Delion will literally be saying like Delian's been like the next Delion.
1:36:01
You know, the young guy that loves Yeah.
1:36:03
They'll be like, "Oh, he's chopped Del. >> I'm Del." >> Yeah.
1:36:11
He only predicted humanoids assembling pavers on the moon, not data centers.
1:36:15
Uh anyway, >> big detail guy. Big >> Thank you.
1:36:20
Thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us. This is a lot of fun.
1:36:24
>> Always always great to chat. Happy holidays. Merry Christmas. We'll see you soon. >> Merry Christmas. See you soon, boys. Bye.
1:36:30
>> We're going to tell you about eight. com. Jillian's an investor.
1:36:33
Exceptional sleep without exception.
1:36:35
Get an eight for Christmas. Gift it for Christmas.
1:36:38
Get a good night's sleep this Christmas with eight sleep. >> I got a 92. Jordy, how'd you do? >> O, I got an 86.
1:36:47
>> I got a 92, but I'm in a terrible sleep debt, which is rough.
1:36:49
I'm on like a 4 hour or 5 hour sleep.
1:36:51
I don't care that you won because I'm in such a good mood because of this Christmas music. I like it. It's really going in. >> This is the longest.
1:36:59
We have Yes, we have Morgan Howell, author, friend of the show. Welcome to the show.
1:37:03
This is the longest sound queue.
1:37:06
Thank you so much for taking the time to join us. How you doing? >> Welcome back. >> Good to see you guys. Doing well. I like your shirts. Looking good. >> Thank you.
1:37:14
Uh should be in the mail for you.
1:37:17
>> Yeah, hopefully already. >> Love it. >> We'll work on it. >> Can't wait.
1:37:21
Um, >> let's uh let's get into it.
1:37:22
What is new in your world?
1:37:24
Take us through the latest and then I want to go into some psychology of the holiday, psychology of shopping.
1:37:30
Uh that we have a bunch of things that we want to run through.
1:37:32
Um but is there >> Yeah, >> I mean not not that much going on right now.
1:37:37
I'm not writing a book right now, which is kind of the most enjoyable part of my career because it lets you just spend all day reading and thinking about what's next, which is always the most enjoyable part of it.
1:37:47
So, I I guess to answer your question, I don't know what's next, but I love this area of my life of just doing a bunch of reading and talking to people and thinking about different topics to try to figure out what might be next.
1:37:58
>> How how how much have you kind of keyed in on what you want to write about next?
1:38:03
Is it >> I think I have a pretty good idea of what it would be.
1:38:06
>> What about the next book?
1:38:06
What about the next book after that?
1:38:10
>> Is that Is that starting to come into focus? >> I'm curious.
1:38:12
I think that's not you know I think what what's what is true that I I have an idea for a distant book.
1:38:16
I don't know when this is going to be but there are so many topics that are worth exploring but not in a full book.
1:38:23
And I I do think there is an idea.
1:38:25
It's hard to do right but there's an idea for a book that is a huge hodgepodge of like 80 different ideas all of which are worth exploring in three or four pages.
1:38:37
And obviously the issue with most non-fiction books, particularly business books, is you have a topic that is worth exploring, but not in 250 pages, but then the author has to stretch it out and just keep on rambling about the same topic over and over again.
1:38:49
And that's what's why business books are so difficult.
1:38:52
So if you can get around that by just going shallow or not not even shallow, but giving the treatment that they deserve on a bunch of small disperate topics, I think that's something I'm interested in.
1:39:01
Have you have you ever been tempted into trying to build a subscription like newsletter and and really focus in on that by saying like, "Hey, there's a bunch of, you know, instead of the next three or four books, I'm going to basically just write the chapters and publish them as I have them."
1:39:17
I'm sure you've had I mean, you've had every opportunity to do that. And you haven't.
1:39:21
Uh, it hasn't been like the focus so far, but I'm curious if that would ever change.
1:39:26
I think the reason I have not is because I think you have to be very careful as a as a content creator for for lack of a better word that you don't become beholden to your audience that you say, "Look, my audience is paying me a hundred bucks a month and I have to feed the ducks because they're quacking."
1:39:40
That's a very dangerous spot to be in for a content creator of like being forced to say stuff when you have nothing to say is a bad spot.
1:39:48
>> You're saying that to the guys that go live for three hours every day and if we don't >> Yeah.
1:39:52
But but you're talking differently like nobody expects you to do your your PhD thesis every day. >> Totally. Totally.
1:39:58
The bar is like and we're not we don't necessarily need to generate the content.
1:40:01
The world generates the content and we figure out what what we want to talk about. >> Yeah.
1:40:06
We're kind of like >> What about have you been have you seen some there's some uh I feel like I've seen some authors like that are writing fiction instead of just writing a book like releasing the book as a subscription product.
1:40:17
That seems somewhat interesting.
1:40:20
almost like treating it like a you're subscribing to Netflix and Netflix is releasing a show and they're sort of dripping it out over time.
1:40:27
>> Uh do you think that's a model that that uh authors could like how powerful is the book industrial complex?
1:40:33
Is there enough incentives to keep people from not doing that and not you know self-publishing and kind of dripping out content and just staying true to the traditional path?
1:40:44
I think it's I think it's true that books are and this is true for podcasts as well that they are the ultimate tail driven content.
1:40:49
99% of books that are published don't don't work and but the ones that do really really work.
1:40:57
Same for podcasts and whatnot.
1:40:58
And so I think it's true that if you're an author you need particularly if you haven't had that hit yet you need to figure out your business model in a different way.
1:41:05
It's very difficult to say I'm a talented writer.
1:41:09
I'm going to go write books and try to make a living out of it.
1:41:11
some for every writer who does that, there are 10,000 who have stumbled and tripped and ultimately failed doing it.
1:41:17
It's a it's a tough model to make it work.
1:41:19
And I've I've seen a much higher success rate in the people that go on Substack or whatever it might be and have that that level of of of subscription.
1:41:27
I think people are more willing to pay 30 bucks a month for your consistent content, your daily or your weekly newsletter, than they are to pay $30 for a book that took you two years to write.
1:41:38
And so it's it's a more stable model I think with a higher hit rate to have that paid subscription even if the rewards for a book that works can be higher.
1:41:46
It's just so much more difficult to make it work.
1:41:50
>> What do you think about like consumer churn or like conversion to actually consuming the content fully?
1:41:55
because I know that there's this there there's like this odd uh you know a lot of people buy physical books, they gift them and then they sit on bookshelves and uh they wind up being props in many cases that people don't just have enough time to read all the books that they acquire.
1:42:10
Um I actually did subscribe to one of those new books as a newsletter fiction and it was odd because I wound up paying for it for a very long time but I didn't wind up reading it >> as they were as the chapters. >> Yeah.
1:42:23
And I and I thought I when when I first when I first subscribed, I was like, "Oh, this is going to be even easier because it's so bite-sized. It's going to be easier.
1:42:30
I'm more likely to get through this than if this was just another book that I had added to my audible."
1:42:37
>> It it also creates a weird tension where there's an incentive to have like crazy cliffhers because so that people don't turn like if you get a little bit if you get a little bit bored with a book and you have the ability to turn from the book, you know?
1:42:48
Think about how often I I I'll start a book and if I'm not, you know, I'll get three chapters in, I'm not like >> really engaged with it, I'll just say like, cool.
1:42:57
I'm not necessarily >> hopefully I learned something, but I'm not going to just read it just to see it all the way through. >> Sure. Yeah.
1:43:04
>> I think what's true too for every good non-fiction book is that people don't remember books so much as they remember a couple sentences from those books.
1:43:10
So most non-fiction books are about 50,000 words.
1:43:15
If you read to the end, which is rare, but if you read all 50,000 words and you come away having remembered two or three banger lines, yeah, of the 50,000 words, you remember 50 of them, that can be great. And it's true.
1:43:27
Like some books that I know changed my life, books that I recommend that are so good.
1:43:33
If you actually if you ask me about them, I can tell you two or three sentences maybe that I remember verbatim that were fantastic and the rest kind of drifts away over time.
1:43:41
So I think that's true even for the absolute best books totally that can change your life.
1:43:45
It's just very small snippets that you're gonna remember from them.
1:43:48
And so like what one takeaway in that too is that >> you can you can remember two or three banger lines from a blog post as well. >> Yeah.
1:43:58
>> And so all the books that I've written most of the ideas started as blog post and then I I could take that idea okay that idea worked. People like that.
1:44:04
How can I kind of transform that into a chapter in a book?
1:44:09
But the core idea is like if you can remember one sentence from this idea, from this chapter, I've done my job.
1:44:16
That's that's that's the goal. >> Yeah.
1:44:19
I uh I I I wonder if I actually read this book, but there's a book that left a really really long like impression on me uh all about immortality.
1:44:27
It was this very interesting way of uh of like framework of thinking about immortality from different cultures.
1:44:32
And I don't even know if I actually read the book, but it stuck with me because like the actual idea was so powerful.
1:44:36
And then there's other books where I've read the whole thing.
1:44:39
There's been a lot of interesting anecdotes, but like it didn't like change my whole worldview and yeah, just it's just fascinating.
1:44:45
Wait, sorry, what were you gonna say?
1:44:46
>> Well, I was talking about I I wrote an essay called Rage Bait is for Losers and I what I wanted people to remember was the title because it it in itself was important.
1:44:55
Well, it was it was rage bait itself because if you've been rage baiting and and you then are are thinking, well, I'm not I I like you kind of want to defend it as like a strategy and some people >> this is interesting.
1:45:08
So, how do you think about rage bait in the context of picking a title for a book that might jump off the shelf in a store?
1:45:15
Because I can imagine there's a world where a book is called, you know, like if you don't read this, you'll be poor forever or something like that, you know, and then then it's like all of a sudden I I'm not going to let them get the best of me. I got to read that book.
1:45:30
Um, but >> I think it's no different than any product where you overpromise and underdel.
1:45:35
You're just going to piss off your customers.
1:45:36
And if you're just trying to get a quick hit and then disappear, maybe that's the right way.
1:45:41
If you're trying to build a long-term brand, your title has to be very honest. Yeah.
1:45:45
>> And so my first book, The Psychology of Money, it's it's a pretty boring title.
1:45:50
A lot of the people who are involved in it said, "We should not use that as a title.
1:45:53
It sounds like an academic textbook." >> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly.
1:45:55
It's a textbook, >> but it's an honest but it's an honest title. Yeah.
1:45:58
What is the book about the psychology of money?
1:46:02
Do you think you would have sold more copies if if you just changed the title to how to get rich and stay rich or something?
1:46:10
>> Well, it's not even that.
1:46:10
It it it's like it's like how to make sure that you have a good psychology of money.
1:46:14
How how to make sure you have a good relationship.
1:46:19
>> I think you didn't set that in.
1:46:21
>> You clearly care about NPS. >> Yeah.
1:46:23
>> Maybe more than other writers or or or uh publishers.
1:46:27
Uh, Mike, >> I heard Rory Sutherland say this on a podcast recently.
1:46:31
He said, "If you uh are like a family business and you're in it for the long run, you're trying to build a generational business.
1:46:37
By and large, you don't care about metrics.
1:46:40
You're not tracking how much your gross profit margin shifted last quarter.
1:46:42
What you care about is customer satisfaction and brand.
1:46:47
And it's only when you're like a private equity owned business where you're like, we're just trying to flip this thing in the next quarter that you become very metric driven and you and you want to measure everything down."
1:46:57
So I think to answer your question, if I was very metric driven and it was just like my goal is to sell as many books as I can next quarter, you can use something bombastic that's going to overpromise.
1:47:06
That will probably work in the short run.
1:47:07
If your book, if your goal is to have a long tale sales cycle and be like, I want to this book to sell for years or even generations if I'm lucky. It has to be honest.
1:47:15
It has to be brand driven where people are like, I enjoyed this book.
1:47:18
I'm going to recommend it to my friends and family.
1:47:22
>> Uh Emily Herrera in the chat says, "Books are just titles and thumbnails."
1:47:26
So same same experience on YouTube.
1:47:26
You might you might have a crazy title and thumbnail and then if it's not very truthful then all the comments are just like congrats on baiting you know baiting people into watching this and and again the sort of NPS is is quite low.
1:47:41
Uh should you write a book on >> gambling?
1:47:48
I think it's all kind of embedded in uh in behavioral finance >> and it I I think the idea the the proliferation of gambling whether it's crypto or uh uh sports betting or whatever it might be >> I think by and large this is not a a unique take many people have talked about this but Daniel Conorman wrote
1:48:06
about when all of your uh options are bad or perceived to be bad people become very risk-taking >> and so if you feel like if a young person feels like if I work hard, excuse me, if I work hard and work my way up the the corporate ladder and save my money and buy a house and start a family, that's what you'll do. If you
1:48:23
If you perceive that option is available to you.
1:48:26
If you don't, then you're like, who cares?
1:48:28
Like, like I I have no vested stake in this system.
1:48:31
Might as well throw it all on black and see what happens.
1:48:35
>> And I think that that comes down to it.
1:48:37
So, I think the psychology of gambling is a pretty deep social issue.
1:48:38
And I think you could probably accurately summarize it as youth pessimism.
1:48:42
When people are pessimistic, they're much more likely to just throw it all down and see what happens.
1:48:48
They have nothing to lose.
1:48:50
>> Uh, I have more on that.
1:48:52
So, do how do you think about the level of risk that people were taking at the time of the American dream?
1:48:59
Like, because there's one world where we where we go back and we say like, oh yeah, it was like the 1950s and you could just get a job at this law firm and it would just be massively successful.
1:49:10
Or even if you were coal miner, you'd have a job in healthcare forever and you go to the auto plant and be an auto worker and work your way up from, you know, the person sweeping up the floor at night to the manager at the end of the day.
1:49:22
And I'm wondering if there's like well like we remember that as not risky because America was successful, but like there was an emerging new new order where you know like the USSR could have steamrolled in the in the cold war and America could have been a disaster.
1:49:37
And so in fact like it was risky but it just worked out well.
1:49:42
But I don't know if that's like like am I thinking about that even in the right realm of all at all? What do you think?
1:49:48
>> Yeah, I think I think a lot of that narrative of what the job market used to be and kind of the 1950s Americana nostalgia that we have is is just that it's it's kind of false nostalgia.
1:49:57
It's this idea that you know the narrative that you just described of you could go get a job at a at an auto factory and work your way up and stay there for 30 years.
1:50:07
I mean, if if you understand the the history of the US economy in the 1950s, particularly the 1970s, there were huge recessions.
1:50:13
There were huge job losses.
1:50:15
And so, I think it's easy to put together a charming, you know, uh uh uh Norman Rockwell picture of what it used to be.
1:50:23
By and large, it's it's it's not the case.
1:50:25
But on the flip side, >> it was like everyone had a, you know, this idea of like if you were employed, you you had a very good shot of owning a home, but the homes were like 750 square ft, >> right?
1:50:37
And they were like, >> that's true. >> Yeah.
1:50:40
>> And I but I think it's also true that uh you know, you can throw around a lot of statistics and I have about how the median American family earns more, is wealthier, is better off today than they were in in the 1950s, in the 1960s.
1:50:51
It's also true, indisputably, that home ownership uh was was more accessible and cheaper back then.
1:51:00
And I I I've I've been thinking a lot about the topic that I think almost every societal problem that we have today >> is downstream of housing of housing affordability.
1:51:10
It's the single biggest issue that we have.
1:51:12
Even back to the gambling issue that we were just talking about.
1:51:16
If you are 28 and you feel whether it's true or not, you feel like you will never own a home.
1:51:20
it's impossible for you to get there to save the down payment.
1:51:23
You become much more likely to be like, I have nothing vested in this system.
1:51:26
Might as well throw it all away. I have nothing to lose.
1:51:28
I might as well throw it all away.
1:51:30
And so to so even if median incomes adjusted for inflation were lower back in the 1950s, if owning a home was more accessible, and by and large it was for most people, that just gave you more of a vested sense in the system caused you to take, I think, smarter risks, not betting everything on on the spread on tonight's game, but taking a risk of I'm going to move to a new town and try to get a job at an auto factory.
1:51:54
That was a risk, but it's more calculated risk than today's gambling mentality.
1:51:58
I think there's something to be said too of just access that which we're seeing in the gambling world today.
1:52:04
If you gave a 19-year-old boy uh Khi and and all the sports bettings apps in 1955, they would have latched right onto it.
1:52:14
There's nothing unique about today's young generation by and large.
1:52:18
It's just that we didn't have those tools that we do today.
1:52:22
>> I encourage people to look up um uh John and I were going back and forth on on this on our on our flight on Friday.
1:52:29
We're looking at the the how popular gambling was during the fall of the Roman Empire.
1:52:32
It was all social classes were doing it on the exact same levels that we're seeing today.
1:52:38
Sure, they weren't on a mobile device, but it was like everywhere that you would be eating and drinking, and it was in private and public, and it was illegal and and legal in some areas, like at certain festivals, it would be legal, and then it would be il like illegal otherwise.
1:52:56
But, you know, it was kind of seen as okay.
1:52:58
So, there's nothing there's nothing new.
1:53:00
uh these things just are going in in waves.
1:53:03
But it certainly was I think people were like somewhat nihilistic and they were just like sure like things are we're experiencing a collapse.
1:53:12
We may as well put it all on black. >> Yeah.
1:53:16
And so I I think it's easy to look at the issues of today and and frame it as we have degraded particularly the younger generation.
1:53:23
I don't think that's the case.
1:53:24
I think any other previous generation would have become degenerate gamblits gamblers and crypto trachers traders if they had the option to like today's generation does. >> Yeah.
1:53:33
I wonder how much of it is uh is just mimemetic just uh like like like the myth that we tell ourselves like uh if we can yeah I don't know somehow steer away.
1:53:44
I also I also wonder like you know there there is the uh like the paternalistic the the puritanical like ban the bad thing.
1:53:53
Uh but there's also the op the more optimistic view of just like maybe just do more of the good thing like if if we have like a national project to build something meaningful.
1:54:04
Well, I think I think the thing that uh that makes you want to put your hand through a wall is people having their uh in their brokerage account the ability to one click, you know, sell Apple stock and in another click buy uh trade on sports contracts.
1:54:22
Um because I mean that again at least there was historically some separation where there was at least some friction of getting out of uh maybe a higher quality investment and getting into something that's just rolling the dice.
1:54:37
And I think that's very clearly going going you know has gone away in some cases and probably uh will just continue to erode.
1:54:45
Also, I mean, >> yeah, I I think it's I think it's important to point out, too, that Vanguard has 12 trillion dollars AUM.
1:54:53
Uh, you know, Fidelity has$10 trillion AUM.
1:54:56
The vast majority of capital these days are people saving uh in their 401ks, dollar cost averaging.
1:55:01
They don't even know their password.
1:55:03
It's being invested into good, stable businesses, diversified, lowcost.
1:55:08
So, it's easy to to point out around all the the crazy speculation that goes on.
1:55:12
And look, I'm a free markets person.
1:55:14
people want to speculate and do whatever they want with their money.
1:55:16
You're allowed to set your financial life on fire, but the vast vast majority of capital is still being invested in what I would consider to be a pretty smart, conservative, long-term way.
1:55:28
>> The the chat has a little bit of a counterpoint.
1:55:30
Uh they said that uh we we might not be considering the fact that 99% of gamblers quit just before they hit it big.
1:55:37
And so that is a little bit of a counterpoint to a lot of the arguments that we're making here.
1:55:42
And I just want to make sure we Consider that. >> Fair enough.
1:55:46
Yeah, we should have just done one more bet. One more bet. >> Just one more bet. You're good.
1:55:48
Um, wanted to go back uh get your thoughts on on startup launches. Kind of random.
1:55:57
I think everyone has launch video fatigue.
1:56:00
I know we did we were doing a lot of like launch style videos earlier this year and we pretty much stopped completely just because we felt like the the meta was kind of dead.
1:56:09
It wasn't actually a way to like truly break through anymore.
1:56:12
and wanted to get your uh if you think that writing is underutilized as like a launch uh as a launch strategy.
1:56:21
U there's been some you know viral PDFs.
1:56:24
know viral PDFs. I think you know uh situational awareness is a is a good example of like just if you can put together a good enough document you can attract you know bill I mean obviously Leopold is in a unique situation but um it feels like writing is super
1:56:39
underutilized uh and went viral on a blog post on hacker news and drove 10,000 signups a ton of interest and people were starting a conversation around that it was just a blog on some random random person's website basically and it actually broke out massively. But
1:56:54
But yeah, it's tricky, but I'd love to know your thoughts.
1:56:59
>> I think it tends to be true, and this is not black and white, but it tends to be true, that if you can explain your value proposition in a paragraph of text, you will do it.
1:57:07
And if you can't, you're much more likely to say, well, we need some glossy pictures.
1:57:11
And if you can't do it with that, then you kind of work your way down to like, can we just create a movie out of this kind of thing?
1:57:16
That's not always the case, but I I do think it's a case like if your idea is so obvious and so good, you can just explain it with crayons on a piece of paper and you're good. You're good from there.
1:57:28
>> And so I think look, >> when I started writing books, somebody told me advice that I thought was great for books, but true for almost any product.
1:57:34
And it was if the book is good, you don't need to market it.
1:57:36
And if the book is bad, no amount of marketing will help. >> Sure.
1:57:41
>> I think you could apply that to a lot of different things.
1:57:42
If your product is good, you don't need to market it. Not true.
1:57:46
I'm being I'm being very generalized here. Marketing is important.
1:57:49
But if your product is good, then it it can kind of sell it itself.
1:57:53
If the product is bad, no amount of marketing will help, particularly in the longer term.
1:57:56
And so, look, I I like good design. I like flashy videos.
1:57:59
I like I like all that kind of stuff.
1:58:01
But good ideas are very obvious.
1:58:02
I think that's one of the keys to good writing is that you don't need to spend a lot of mental horsepower to understand what the author is saying.
1:58:10
>> You can just kind of glance your eyes over a paragraph and be like, "Yeah, I got it.
1:58:13
Make makes perfect sense.
1:58:13
I don't need any more flashy video.
1:58:15
That one sentence explained everything I need to know.
1:58:18
Let's move on from there.
1:58:18
I think that tends to be true.
1:58:21
>> Do you have a book of the year?
1:58:21
Do you do you like looking back and creating like a list of the things that you most enjoyed this year?
1:58:27
I know that you don't this is this is like total newsletter fodder and we already talked about how you're not uh you know you know in service to people that demand the uh the end of the year review, but uh has anything stuck out to you this year?
1:58:42
I thought the best book that I read uh was probably Andrew Ross Orcin's 1929. Fantastic.
1:58:47
>> Just absolutely phenomenal.
1:58:49
>> Also the best book launch ever was I think that's I think that's probably great book and then also like absolute master class.
1:58:57
I was taking screenshots of if you search Andrew Osorin 1929 on YouTube, you can see that he just did every single podcast.
1:59:03
Like he did 20 shows and it was so good and and I didn't realize like he's someone that everyone knows, but he's not constantly on a tour.
1:59:14
So he had a lot of builtup energy to like go full tilt and it worked really well.
1:59:18
It was >> and it's such a a fascinating period of American history that to my surprise has not there's not a lot of books written about the Great Depression.
1:59:25
There's not like like what's the classic book on the Great Depression?
1:59:30
There's not many there's not many of them.
1:59:31
There are 10,000 books written about World War II as there should be.
1:59:36
But but the Great Depression, which was so monumental in the history of this country, there's not a lot written about it.
1:59:41
So, I thought he did a great job.
1:59:42
Somebody brought this up uh when they were reviewing 1929, I thought it was such a fascinating point >> that all of the big characters in the book, except for maybe Jesse Livermore, are pretty much forgotten today.
1:59:52
M >> all of the titans of industry of banking, the Jamie Diamonds of their day are all forgotten now.
1:59:59
Unless you're like a history buff, Charlie Mitchell, all those people, we don't remember them anymore.
2:00:05
>> And I think there's something to be said that if your only accomplishment in life >> is that you made a lot of money, you're going to be forgotten very quickly.
2:00:10
And that was true for a lot of the bankers back then.
2:00:14
It's probably true for a lot of the private equity hedge fund people today. Nothing wrong with that.
2:00:18
>> I will remember all the private credit legends, >> Wall Street's new rich. I will remember them.
2:00:24
I'm going to keep this episode or this edition of Baronss and bring it to the grave. >> No, no.
2:00:29
What you need to do is you need to wait a hundred years.
2:00:30
You need to write an amazing book about it.
2:00:31
Then you need to turn that book into a movie and a TV show and then cast an iconic actor and then we'll remember and then that's what >> how are you processing the AI trade uh in the in the context of history?
2:00:46
I think I think historically the gap between uh a product changing the world and people making a lot of money off of it can be 20 miles apart.
2:00:52
The railroads were probably the most transformational technology ever.
2:00:57
Way more transformational than anything we've had over the last hundred years.
2:01:00
And a few people made ungodly fortunes from it.
2:01:05
99% of railroad investors lost everything.
2:01:08
And and that was true for the airplane completely changed the world.
2:01:12
A lot of people lost huge fortunes on automobiles.
2:01:14
There were 2,000 car companies in the early 1900s.
2:01:19
Three of them remained by by the 1930s or so.
2:01:22
And so you can go on down the list of like change the world and 99% of people lost everything.
2:01:26
Of course, that was true of the the dot bubble.
2:01:30
Everyone's thesis by and large in the late 1990s of what the internet would become was right.
2:01:35
>> But it it didn't mean that you were going to make any money from it.
2:01:36
In fact, many were going to lose everything.
2:01:39
>> Web van, I think, is such a good example because it's like >> Door Dash just >> Yeah. 15 years ago.
2:01:44
Chewy is a banger company. MP3. com.
2:01:47
Spotify is the company you want to own.
2:01:50
Like there's just so many every every current company there was some.
2:01:54
com that was doing the basic idea and just didn't get to didn't get to scale at all. Yeah. >> I think so.
2:02:00
I think I think that I think you could easily imagine just based off of history that in 20 years of course AI completely changed everything. Nothing is the same.
2:02:07
And when we talk about the businesses that have been involved over their previous 20 years, there's two or three unbelievable winners, 99% of of companies went to zero.
2:02:16
And the three companies that won uh are either not around today or are not the obvious ones today.
2:02:23
So if you're talking about the internet in 1998, Google was in a garage.
2:02:26
Obviously, Facebook didn't exist yet.
2:02:28
There that that tends to be the story of what it was.
2:02:30
The the the Wright brothers themselves didn't make very much money from the airplane, if anything.
2:02:36
It wasn't until you had someone named William Boeing who came along and he was like, "I'm just going to copy your idea, but do it way better than you guys could do it."
2:02:42
And that that that tends to be the idea.
2:02:43
It's what Google did with Yahoo and uh ex and Hotbot and all the other search engines who were the actual front runners.
2:02:50
You just took someone else coming along to be like, "Great idea.
2:02:53
Hold my beer and watch me do it 100 times better than you could."
2:02:57
>> Speaking of AI, uh we we've talked about this before.
2:03:00
Obviously AI is not ready or equipped to uh write a book or >> Oh, it'll write it, John.
2:03:10
>> Happily, >> it will write it, but it won't write it.
2:03:14
Uh but uh what do you think about AI generated voices?
2:03:17
Do you think that those are past the uncanny valley?
2:03:20
Would you listen to an audible book that was uh where the where the voice was AI generated?
2:03:29
I'm I I'm not much of an audiobook guy, so I'm probably the wrong person to ask for that.
2:03:32
What I will say is one of the most amazing AI products that I've seen in the last two years, I think a lot of people have had this experience, is Google's notebook LM >> where you go in and you say, "Here's a topic.
2:03:43
Make me a 10-minute podcast and it spits it out and it's unbelievable."
2:03:47
>> So, when I first saw that, I was like, "This is this I this is magic. I can't believe it."
2:03:51
And how many Notebook LM podcasts have I listened to since then? Zero. >> I was about to ask. >> I think none. None.
2:03:56
I think there's something to be said and of course I am literally talking >> actually I actually think it's I think I think the use case there where they probably have traction >> is students that have not studied for an exam and they have an hour to try to figure it out.
2:04:11
So it's not for enjoyment at all.
2:04:12
It's pure function which is that I need to listen to something for an hour that is like hyper specific to a topic and it's boring.
2:04:19
So nobody necessarily made the like definitive podcast episode on it but I just need it.
2:04:25
And then it in terms of like the way that most people people listen to audio to get to be entertained even if it's like educational and so they're going to go to people that are good entertainers that are opinionated.
2:04:36
>> Yeah, I think that's true.
2:04:36
And of course I am I am such a a biased person to say this as an author myself, but I think what I like about reading books, whether it's fiction or non-fiction, is the idea that a fellow human wrote this thing.
2:04:46
I could never write this.
2:04:49
My brain doesn't work this way, >> but but some other authors did.
2:04:52
And I feel like that like that connection is amazing and it breaks down as soon as you have AI generated content.
2:04:58
And I think that's why I have no interest in a notebook LM podcast.
2:05:02
I'd much rather listen to David Senra and his, you know, even with all of his quirks and his stumbles and whatnot.
2:05:10
But I'm like, yeah, but David read that. He did this. He's thinking that. And like I love that.
2:05:14
Um, and so I, you know, >> I listened to an hour of of uh OG Senra, the PT Barnum episode yesterday.
2:05:21
And then I got to hang out with David for a couple hours last night for dinner at my house.
2:05:27
>> One of the best guys around. I love him. >> Truly. >> Yeah. >> Truly. Yeah.
2:05:30
The the um I I I think uh I I need to listen to the the James Dyson episode uh today, but he released that and and for Senra OGs, you know how significant that episode is is to him.
2:05:44
like the the full circle moment of, you know, studying Dyson to being able to to interview him live. It's very cool. >> Love it. >> Yeah. Wild.
2:05:52
Well, >> um, great having you on the show.
2:05:53
We hope you have an incredible end uh end to the year and thank you for being a part of this this year.
2:06:01
You're somebody that we one of our favorite guests and can't wait for next year.
2:06:08
>> Thanks so much for having me.
2:06:08
Always an honor to be on.
2:06:09
Looking forward to my shirt. >> Yes.
2:06:12
>> We'll talk to you soon. >> Talk soon.
2:06:13
Have a good rest of your day. >> Numeral.
2:06:15
com compliance handled numeral worries about sales tax and VAT compliance so you can focus on growth and uh putting presents under the Christmas tree. >> That's right.
2:06:30
>> Uh speaking of presents under the Christmas tree, the Google team is cooking up a present for me in 2026.
2:06:37
They're going to put ads in Gemini. Let's go. >> Hit the gong. Finally. Finally.
2:06:46
>> We've been asking for it.
2:06:48
>> I hear those sleigh bells ringing for it.
2:06:50
We've been asking for it. Ads in LMS.
2:06:52
We talked to the founder of Perplexity about it. We asked Arvin.
2:06:55
Why are you going to put ads?
2:06:58
We want ads in Perplexity. And he said, "Maybe."
2:07:00
And the tech wrote a whole article about it and they got really mad.
2:07:06
>> I'll let Google jump first.
2:07:07
>> I'll let Google jump first.
2:07:07
We've talked to Sarah Frier.
2:07:09
We've talked to the OpenAI team about how badly we want ads in chat GPT, how badly want ads in LLMs.
2:07:16
Uh they said maybe we're going to do it, maybe we're not.
2:07:19
They've been sitting on their hands, but now >> I don't know how I I love listening to your voice. >> It's good. It's good.
2:07:26
We need uh Yeah, this this is interesting.
2:07:29
Uh there there's this feels like very Google to just be like, "Yeah, we're we're the ad business. We're going to do ads.
2:07:37
We're going to do them first.
2:07:37
we're probably going to do them >> better than anybody else, at least initially.
2:07:44
>> But some people were pushing back just being like, "Hey, you could have like you easily could have um >> just crushed, right?" >> Yeah.
2:07:50
You could have just kept the product.
2:07:52
A lot of people are excited about or a lot of people are are are wondering like, hey, there's a there's a world where Gemini doesn't have ads and is free for two years and it just completely puts the screws to every other, you know, LLM provider. >> Yeah.
2:08:09
And I've I mean, >> what would you do if you were them?
2:08:12
>> Would you would you monetize earlier? Like expensive, right?
2:08:17
I mean, it would definitely hurt hurt cash flow.
2:08:18
like it would show up in in the financials for sure.
2:08:22
>> I just pro plus is not cheap, but >> turning on ads for I mean the I I always look back to >> what what would the Instagram business look like if they were forced to monetize it independently because it's it's an amazing ad like it's an amazing platform that's perfectly suited for to monetize with ads.
2:08:42
Y >> and yet you can imagine Meta ramped ad spend on the platform 10 20 times faster than maybe an independent operator would have cuz they just had been uh they had all the customer relationships.
2:08:54
They had all the uh they had a strong sense of who the person was already because they were probably on Facebook as well.
2:09:00
So >> I I don't think I don't think ads cause failure to adopt a new product.
2:09:05
I would be I I don't know.
2:09:07
we'd have to look through the the the product graveyard, but I feel like of of things that die, they rarely die because >> people are people are acting like ads and LM are going to be like the biggest deal and are going to be the biggest issue.
2:09:20
And I just don't think it's going to be I think they're going to I think >> in many ways they could make the product better or more like sticky in the sense that you're like looking at stuff, doing shopping in there.
2:09:29
>> And personally, I want every LM to have a lot of ads so that I can swap between all of the best models without feeling like I need to sign up.
2:09:35
Like I actually >> like for me I'm like there's there's models that I just don't use because I'm like okay I'm not I don't I don't want to sign I have not that much. I'll let Tyler sign up. >> Totally. >> Uh on our ramp card. >> Totally.
2:09:47
>> Um but >> do you do you think XAI is going to run uh ads?
2:09:52
>> Do you think they're going to put ads in Grock or ads in in in I'm sure they will at some point.
2:09:57
I doubt it's a a huge a huge priority for them.
2:09:59
There's this company Halime which won the Grock hackathon that happened over the weekend.
2:10:05
Yes, >> I DM with the founder.
2:10:06
He's down to he's down to come on.
2:10:08
But >> this is we need to pull this up because when I saw this, I was like, whoa. Like X AI.
2:10:14
I didn't realize that it was from a hackathon.
2:10:15
I thought it was just this actual company.
2:10:17
So it says halftime dynamically weaves AI generated ads into the scenes that you're watching.
2:10:22
So breaks feel like part of the story instead of interruptions.
2:10:26
So uh there's >> Cyrex in the chat says it just makes you second guess every output you get from the model. >> Totally agree. That's the bad case.
2:10:35
There's a world where they just give you the the real response and then there's an ad. >> Yes.
2:10:40
But so so so there is a different there is a different flip.
2:10:42
So um so to Cybex's point um you second guess every output you get from the model because you're worried the ad is is influencing it.
2:10:53
If you go to, you know, your favorite chat app and you say, "What are the best headphones and and it says Apple AirPod Pros?"
2:11:01
And you're like, "H, is it sponsored? Is it not?
2:11:04
Are they being objective? Are they not?"
2:11:06
Yes, that is something that you'd worry about.
2:11:09
But there's also the other flip side, which is that if they're not monetizing, well, they might be putting you on the cheapest model that's just guessing and it's just like, "Oh yeah, like I guess it's this product because they didn't they didn't cook.
2:11:21
They didn't give you the the the the reasoning model because they can't afford to because they're not monetizing you.
2:11:27
Well, >> I think I think yeah, one reality is somebody types, "What is the best cell phone that I can get for $1,000?"
2:11:32
And it gives you the iPhone >> and then there's an ad for an Android phone right below it.
2:11:39
And that's still worth advertising on because it's a high intent query >> and it's very, you know, and it's likely ends up being profitable for for the Android man, you know, device manufacturer to advertise against it.
2:11:51
But let's pull up halftime.
2:11:51
They're dynamically weaving AI generated ads into scenes you're watching, so breaks feel like part of the story instead of interruptions. >> Watching wrong. Boo. What do they say? >> Harvard trivia. The lightning round.
2:12:22
>> Go pull your surprises. 46 Nobel Peace Prizes.
2:12:32
>> Jessica, what are you doing here?
2:12:34
>> I was just That is so weird. It is >> so bad. >> I'm sold now.
2:12:47
I want a I want a Coca-Cola. Okay. Okay. Okay.
2:12:49
If you want to see if you want to see how ads are done well in uh in in an in video integration like this, uh we have to pull up the video that's at the bottom of the timeline.
2:13:03
Uh they just reinvented the Star Wars Servea Crystalall ads. Have you seen these?
2:13:09
You've barely seen Star Wars, but at one point there was a uh at one point there was a there was an international showing of the original Star Wars, and for some reason they needed to cut ads into the actual footage.
2:13:23
And so we got to play this with sound.
2:13:25
It's one of my favorite things. Let's play it.
2:13:28
>> You fought in the Clone Wars. >> Look at this. >> Yes.
2:13:30
I was once a Jedi Knight, the same as your father. >> I wish I'd known him.
2:13:37
He was the best star pilot in the galaxy and a cunning warrior.
2:13:42
I understand you've become quite a good pilot yourself.
2:13:49
And he was a good friend.
2:13:52
Which reminds me, I have something here for you.
2:13:58
>> Your father wanted you to have this when you were old enough. It's the best. >> It's like pure art. AI could never. It's so good. It's absolutely genius.
2:14:13
And they do that two or three other times throughout the movie.
2:14:18
And so you're just watching and and and it's always when they go to grab something and then they just do the insert shot.
2:14:28
So like, so like if you're watching the Surveysa Crystalall version of Star Wars, by the end of the movie, Obi-Wan Kenobi has had like five beers. >> Whoa. >> More than Yeah. Yeah.
2:14:39
No, he's definitely he's definitely has buzz going, but uh that's one of my favorite little little bits. >> That's great.
2:14:47
>> Let me tell you about really quick.
2:14:49
automate compliance and security AI that powers everything from evidence collection and continuous monitoring to security reviews and vendor risk. Continue Jord.
2:14:58
>> So with halftime we're going to have the founder Chris on.
2:15:00
He's uh studying CS at Waterlue. Uh what a great project.
2:15:03
Uh and then he he's only 20.
2:15:06
So we're going to have him on.
2:15:08
I'm excited to have him on.
2:15:10
Uh that said, I I wonder if he could work with a movie like go work with someone like a Netflix early on and say like basically give us inventory >> and then we will like work with a bunch of different there will be a beverage scene and then we'll generate a bunch of random versions of the scene for different types of people in the audience. >> Yeah.
2:15:31
Well, so this this already happens where ads in the background.
2:15:33
So, if you're walking around New York City in some romantic comedy, uh, they might actually go and VFX out the billboards that are in the back and they might put new ads in the background.
2:15:45
And that's just a traditional VFX pipeline.
2:15:47
Just cut it out and put a different ad in.
2:15:51
And so, that type of that type of editing can be made a lot more dynamic by through AI.
2:15:55
That's probably how this instantiates itself realistically as opposed to just the most aggressive um the most aggressive like all of a sudden they're talking about the ad.
2:16:04
It's it's a it's a little bit of a wild wild move.
2:16:08
Anyway, uh apparently Ryan Macintosh um uh predicted this. He said it's coming.
2:16:13
He's quoting semi analysis.
2:16:13
Says, "How much would Starbucks pay to haunt the background of every midjourney cafe render a Tesla idling in every AI generated traffic scene?"
2:16:22
If you're you're thinking small, this is the this is the ambient brand singularity.
2:16:29
>> Dan in the chat says, "You know, after you've seen that Surveysa Crystal ad once or twice, you actually are think are thinking about the beer for the rest of time, like wondering when it's going to come next." >> Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
2:16:39
Because it comes randomly.
2:16:41
>> It might come right now.
2:16:41
It might come in five minutes. Just be ready.
2:16:44
>> Should we get Should we get Yeah, let's get to Tyler.
2:16:46
Uh, you needed to grab something off of his desk, right? >> Okay.
2:16:50
So, this is incredibly bullish. What is bullish?
2:16:53
>> Uh they're putting ads in Iawaska trips. >> What?
2:16:57
>> Uh somebody somebody on Reddit, >> this is something we would do.
2:17:00
This is something we would joke about. Remember our joke?
2:17:02
Going to Peru with helicopters with massive speakers and playing corporate finance tutorials to people who are tripping in the jungle.
2:17:10
That's the to to to get them to come back to corporate America and lock in.
2:17:15
What What exactly happened here? Break it down, Jordy. Uh, anyone?
2:17:19
So, somebody on the r/dmt subreddit says, "Anyone else getting Amazon ads when breaking through?
2:17:25
It's happened to me on my last three trips. Second was Iaska.
2:17:29
Right as I break through, my trip is paused for a vivid 5-second ad featuring Jeff Bezos. Am I am I the only one?
2:17:38
>> How is this happening?
2:17:38
Is that just like their their their brain is fried and so they're imagining an ad or is it like they happen to be listening to something or watching something?"
2:17:46
I think Jeff figured this out a long time ago and he realized there's a lot of people that are using psychedelics and he he thought I could productize this and make it available to other merchants on Amazon or I could just keep it for myself and just have all the inventory for myself.
2:18:02
>> Uh no uh of course uh uh joking but anyways very very funny.
2:18:06
In other ads news, get bezel.
2:18:08
com, shop over 26,000 luxury watches, fully authenticated in-house by bezel team of experts.
2:18:13
But also, apparently anthropic uh bought every stack trace that gets no results.
2:18:20
So if you go to Google and you and you type in your stack trace, your air while you're programming uh and nothing comes up, uh Claude somehow just went to Google and said, "Hey, we'll we'll we'll buy that ad inventory." Uh genius.
2:18:31
buy that ad inventory." Uh genius. feels like Google should be buying this this their own ad result or they should actually just have an integration for Gemini so that if it if if you go and you type in a stack trace that no one has no one's ever run into that
2:18:48
particular technical problem before shouldn't they just have a button there that says like fix it with Gemini right now like we'll do it should just do that this is like a case study in AI mode like they should they should compete but honestly incredibly creative uh from the clawed team. Very uh
2:19:03
Very uh >> the chat is going off on the on the Iawaska ads. Yes.
2:19:09
>> AB says CPMs would be through the word roof.
2:19:11
Imagine getting oneshotted by a Geico ad. >> 2.
2:19:16
6 says Jeff Bezos is now monetizing the astral plane.
2:19:19
>> Making your whole personality >> Geico after >> Nick Turley says, "I'm seeing lots of confusion about ad rumors in Chad CBT.
2:19:28
There are no live tests for ads.
2:19:28
Any screenshots you've seen are not real or not ads.
2:19:32
If we do pursue ads, we'll take a thoughtful approach.
2:19:34
People trust Chat GBT and anything we do will be designed to respect that.
2:19:39
>> This was because of a viral post that showed a screenshot of I think Target down at the bottom, but that was just like an embedded link.
2:19:44
That was like an app that someone built.
2:19:46
It was not an advertisement. >> That's crazy. Who would do that?
2:19:52
>> Sounds like he might have been >> uh I I love Eric Sufort.
2:19:53
uh he's uh he's clearly, you know, one of us, an ad supporter, an ad lover.
2:20:00
Uh and and he uh he is quote tweeting somebody that's saying that's mentioning that Airbnb still has no advertising business.
2:20:07
Of course, Uber has an advertising business that's great.
2:20:11
Door Dash has figured out how to do promoted content very well.
2:20:15
And those businesses have grown a lot.
2:20:17
And Eric Seart's standing there saying, "Start an ad network."
2:20:19
I didn't we ask Chesky about this when he was on the show?
2:20:23
I think we talked to him about about doing ads and and he he mentioned that it is somewhat of a unique product.
2:20:29
Uh it's it's a little bit less frequent than an Uber.
2:20:31
It's less frequently used. >> Yeah.
2:20:32
But you can do hyper local advertising.
2:20:34
So you if you're staying somewhere, they could be sent giving you ads for, hey, look at this kayaking trip you could do in a couple days or whatever. >> Yeah.
2:20:44
>> You're laughing at what I'm laughing at.
2:20:46
>> Are we now we're into the like attractive people of the show section? Max.
2:20:52
>> Yeah, we have this post from uh uh >> we have a post here.
2:20:56
Apparently, we we now have a national looks maxing strategy of the United States. Now, >> look at Jacob. He looks fantastic. >> Jacob stuns >> fun.
2:21:05
Uh he's former guest on the show.
2:21:07
Um he's been >> We need to ask Jacob about bone smashing.
2:21:11
>> Yeah, >> apparently it's it's uh gaining quite uh quite a lot of popularity out there. >> Be great.
2:21:17
Uh Donald Boat is also apparently very attractive.
2:21:19
of people have been uh talking about that on the timeline.
2:21:24
Uh I >> was this his first Tyler don't didn't you know I think this is the first docs by >> this is the first docs of Donald Boat.
2:21:35
Um people people people are fans people are fans of of Donald Boat.
2:21:37
Um there's also Sean Frank is getting jacked.
2:21:40
We're really in like the true category of just like here here are attractive people now.
2:21:47
>> The the looking the look stone of the show. Really? Yeah. Yeah.
2:21:50
Three for three on the looks maxing segment.
2:21:52
Uh Sean Frank says, "Hit these right after doing about 10 sets of 50 straight." What is this? Onearmed pull-ups.
2:21:58
He can do one armed pull-ups.
2:22:02
>> Well, he's holding the other one.
2:22:02
So, you're using It's more like training training. Yeah.
2:22:05
But still, you're training like grip strength. >> That's impressive. >> Very cool.
2:22:10
>> Come do that in the Ultradome.
2:22:12
>> You know, you know, Black Friday went well when you're banging out. >> Yeah.
2:22:15
He is uh on a on a high after Black Friday.
2:22:18
Well, let me tell you about adquick. com.
2:22:20
Out of home, out of home advertising made easy and measurable.
2:22:23
Plan, buy, and measure out of home with precision.
2:22:25
And our next guest, I believe, is in the reream waiting room.
2:22:28
We have Sarah from Cultured Magazine.
2:22:31
She's the founder and the editor and chief of Cultured Magazine.
2:22:36
Let's bring her in to the >> I hope you don't mind the holiday music.
2:22:41
We're having a lot of fun here today.
2:22:42
>> We're in the holiday spirit. >> Welcome to the show. >> Thank you. Thank you for having me. There's a bit of a lag. It's a bit disorienting. >> Oh, I'm sorry.
2:22:51
Um, well, hopefully we can hopefully you can hear us. Okay.
2:22:53
I would love to just kick off >> everybody. Can you hear me? Okay. >> Yes.
2:22:57
Yes, we can hear you just fine.
2:22:57
Uh, hopefully you could kick us off with a little bit of an introduction on yourself since it's the first time on your show.
2:23:03
Uh, tell us about uh, Cultured and um, and kind of your journey a little bit. That'd be great.
2:23:11
>> Gosh, where should I start?
2:23:11
So, Cultured is uh, a uh, media company.
2:23:13
uh we cover kind of everything under the creative umbrella >> with a with a strong focus on the contemporary arts.
2:23:24
So cover, you know, film and theater and literature.
2:23:26
Um, and kind of look at everything through the lens of does it intersect with contemporary art.
2:23:34
Um, and you know, if so, how?
2:23:37
And kind of try to have a holistic approach to all of the content.
2:23:42
>> And, uh, I mean, uh, I I I would love to know your take on uh on Netflix and Warner Brothers if you have one.
2:23:49
Uh, we we've just been going through all the different uh all the different IP there.
2:23:54
I don't know if anything sticks out to you. >> I don't know.
2:23:56
I was in LA over the weekend and of course everyone was talking about it, you know. I I don't know.
2:24:02
I mean, it's it's concerning on a on many levels.
2:24:05
Um, do you think it's going to do you think it's going to go through fully or >> I mean, Warner Brothers Discovery is definitely going somewhere. That seems clear. Uh, we're I don't know.
2:24:13
Where do you stand on it?
2:24:16
I think it probably lands with Netflix because there's just so much competition from YouTube. so much competition.
2:24:21
Netflix has what, like 300 million subscribers now.
2:24:23
I mean, they're the clear streaming winner. >> Yeah.
2:24:26
And so, even though, yes, it is consolidation, it's not a monopoly because people watch YouTube, they watch Instagram, they watch shows like this.
2:24:35
We're not we're not on a network and we don't need to be.
2:24:37
And so, uh, it still feels like, uh, no one's going to look, you know, a year or two from now, no one's going to be like, "Oh, yeah, Hollywood isn't competitive anymore."
2:24:46
Like, no, it's Hollywood's extremely cutthroat.
2:24:48
It's going to remain cutthroat.
2:24:49
It's going to remain >> even more cutthroat >> potentially which means it's hard to block.
2:24:54
I think a lot of people are so latched on to the past and we've uh >> yeah, it feels like I mean we're we're we're based in Hollywood and so there's a lot of people that are that are uh still have tied their careers to like the old Hollywood and the way things were were done in the past.
2:25:11
And it's just notable that like it's never been easier to just create content and create uh like when I when I think about Warner Warner Warner Brothers, it's like there's a bunch of like cartoon IP.
2:25:23
It's like if you're mad about consolidation and you're a creative person, just make more make a cartoon. Make a new cartoon.
2:25:34
Just make make things, right?
2:25:34
I I uh the the frustration that people have when they're like, "Oh, this is going to this is going to hurt." Um uh I >> theaters. >> Yeah.
2:25:46
The theater thing I The thing >> theaters I think are already hurt, right?
2:25:49
I think there is that sense of nostalgia and I think there is that slice of Hollywood that is rooted in that. Um, but I agree.
2:25:55
Of course, there's no there's never been a time where there's been more channels, but it's still it's almost like there are certainly more channels to reach people, but it's also harder to reach people. >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:26:06
The there's something there's some interesting uh like ratio if you were trying to quantify it of like how much attention something gets relative to the the the revenue or the market cap or the value.
2:26:18
Like uh theaters are they feel so culturally important.
2:26:24
important. They feel such so everyone has a story or memory of their childhood going to the theater such an experience and yet I think the actual total revenue of of you know all the movie theaters in America is like a fraction of what video games make in a month you know like video the video game industry is like way way bigger or like the social media
2:26:46
industry will be so so much bigger like a thousand times bigger um and so but but there's something where just just the legacy has broken through to such a degree that even though it hasn't been a big business in decades and it's smaller than ever, uh it's still culturally extremely relevant and so it's hard >> and I think creatively extremely relevant. >> Totally. Totally. >> Totally. Totally.
2:27:06
>> You know, I think I think filmmakers want us to see their movies mostly on the big screen. >> Yeah.
2:27:11
So, I mean, I think if you look at it just from a revenue standpoint, of course, I mean, like you said, it's probably been decades since there's been a shift, but I do think that there is still something >> uh nostalgic and important about seeing certain things in theaters.
2:27:27
I mean, there's still movies that people say, and I mean, obviously, you know, the filmmakers are often fighting for it to have the release first in a theater. >> Yeah.
2:27:36
>> Granted, maybe they're all over 40, but still. >> Yeah. I do wonder.
2:27:39
I mean, I I wonder what the next generation will even look like if they'll they'll want to go to theaters.
2:27:44
Like, we have a friend uh um Jason Carman, who's very much of the young and of the new new age, uh new creative organization, makes movies, but also makes short films and documentaries and all sorts of stuff.
2:27:59
And he still definitely wants to release his films in theaters. He has.
2:28:03
He's figured out ways to do that.
2:28:03
Um, but uh I I I wonder I wonder how much that's at the same time we're friends with like Adam Faze.
2:28:11
>> I think we need new It's such an interesting time because like theater the theater business has been in decline and yet I think we need new theaters.
2:28:19
Like we need >> they're trying that.
2:28:20
I think I don't know if that's working.
2:28:22
You mean kind of like it a certain experience or something?
2:28:26
Well, if I uh I think last time I went and saw a movie was with John and we got like 20 of our friends together to go see Dune.
2:28:33
Uh I think >> and like the actual experience of being in a theater under these like you go from being under like bright LEDs in a mall, which I don't go to malls >> and I'm in bright LEDs and I don't like the smell of movie theater popcorn personally.
2:28:50
It just I'm like that smells like poison. I don't want it.
2:28:52
Uh, and then you go and uh, and so the whole experience for me is like, yeah, I'm never going to I'm never going to do that.
2:29:01
But if you if you built a theater from the ground up as in an opinionated way, like some type of like almost treating it like a true hospitality experience, there's probably a much better chance that I would go.
2:29:11
Not not certain that there's a real business there yet, but maybe there hasn't been enough attempts there.
2:29:18
>> The Among Giri of theaters, it's like two grand per ticket.
2:29:20
That's the way they do it. to take over. Yeah.
2:29:26
>> I mean, that somewhat happened in my town.
2:29:28
In my town, uh there's there used to be two theaters where you'd sit like shoulder-to-shoulder with everyone.
2:29:33
And now both of those theaters have way down scope the number of seats. The seats are huge.
2:29:40
They serve you dinner, there's wine, there's drinks, and like they're trying to get 500 bucks out of you or 200 bucks out of you.
2:29:46
You're not going in on a matinea $10 with like cheap popcorn and getting out of there.
2:29:50
They they want to monetize it like it's a restaurant because it's a lot of physical space.
2:29:55
Like the square footage is a lot.
2:29:57
>> But basically, I mean, someone was just telling me that the theaters really are only still in New York and LA. >> Oh, really? >> Yeah.
2:30:04
I mean, I was thinking the opposite, frankly.
2:30:05
I thought, okay, towns, but someone said, "No, you can't even go to a movie theater in a small town anymore. >> They've all closed." Wow. It's rough.
2:30:12
>> This is someone told me. >> What?
2:30:14
>> Well, let's uh I'd love to I'd love to talk about the the art just the art market.
2:30:18
Obviously Miami has gotten a lot of attention over the last week or so. Uh >> for the people. >> Yeah.
2:30:26
And >> going viral again. He's still going.
2:30:27
He went viral a couple years ago. >> Well, yeah.
2:30:30
I'm particularly excited to get your opinion because every now you keep I I've been seeing some headlines recently where it's like the art market is back and then I talk to people that are actually working in art and they're like it's absolutely not back.
2:30:41
Uh, and so I think there's somewhat of a a disconnect where maybe there's like a effort to like tell people that it's back, but I don't I don't know if the sales velocity is really there.
2:30:51
But, uh, how are you processing things?
2:30:54
>> Of course, we we have to believe our own hype.
2:30:56
I mean, I think that there's been a fundamental shift in the art world.
2:30:58
um call it, you know, since 2024 or, you know, I think I think that there's been so many factors that have changed the landscape of the art world.
2:31:11
Um certainly has it as it's been in the last 20 or 30 years.
2:31:16
I think that look I think sure it it's better, right?
2:31:21
Like we had Art Basle Paris, everyone said, "Okay, the art market's back. It's better."
2:31:24
Um I think Freeze London had reported strong sales.
2:31:28
I spoke to a big gallery uh recently that said that 2025 every single Basel this year was a record for them.
2:31:36
>> Now of course like anything you take a fair like Art Basle there's 300 galleries.
2:31:40
So you can take a really strong year where everyone says the market's on fire and you can find a dealer who didn't do well that year.
2:31:45
Um I think that I think the statistic that someone was throwing around and I'm not sure if this is accurate is something like you know total volume of sales is down 10%.
2:31:55
Um, I don't know exactly where the art market is.
2:32:01
I think that there's definitely been a very serious correction.
2:32:04
I think that a correction ultimately yields a lot of positive things in an art market.
2:32:09
So, I don't think it's back to the kind of frenzy 800 person waiting list for, you know, a painter 2 years out of Yale that we were in.
2:32:19
Um, but I do think that there's some momentum.
2:32:22
I think that there's been speaking of some consolidation.
2:32:24
There's been um you know some mid-tier even some bigger galleries closing and just you know I think a lot of shifts in the market but I think that Miami was you know net positive for the most people I talked to in sales.
2:32:41
>> And I think that you still have I mean look I call me optimistic but you still have these collectors who are you know they're not the speculative part of the market.
2:32:49
they're not buying an artist because they think that they're going to get a multiple of, you know, 10 or 100.
2:32:55
Um, I think I do think, however, that even if the the collector isn't looking to ever sell there, that kind of data sometimes does kind of feed a little bit of a sparkle and an energy.
2:33:04
Um, but I do think that there there are collectors who buy in good markets and bad markets.
2:33:11
And I think the last, you call it since fall, it's definitely gotten better. Are we back? No. But is it better? Yes.
2:33:20
>> What's the secret to successfully participating in Art Basil if you're a company or a brand?
2:33:25
I I've seen a bunch of selling. >> Just selling. >> The selling.
2:33:29
I mean, you know, as you as you know, it costs them.
2:33:31
It's a significant investment, right?
2:33:33
They're buying the space.
2:33:35
They're shipping the artwork.
2:33:36
They're having their team come.
2:33:39
You know, they they put, you know, lots of money, hundreds of thousands of dollars behind the fair.
2:33:44
So selling the art, which often can be up to $20 million of art, is success. >> Mhm. Makes sense.
2:33:54
>> Uh yeah, it's been >> we did an interesting story on the economics of a mid-tier gallery. >> Okay.
2:33:58
um that published last week that talks a little bit about how when you're not selling $20 million of art, how you get through Miami or how you get through a fair and make the economics work because there's certainly a tipping point in which it works and a tipping point in which sometimes dealers are trying to meet new collectors, show new work and it's financially not viable. >> What? Yeah.
2:34:17
What are the highest leverage things that a mid-tier gallery can do?
2:34:20
Is that stuff like leave some of the art at home and you know more digital representations of the art and uh is is that the cost structure or the cost savings?
2:34:31
>> Part of it is that a certain gallery might represent like if you represent 20 artists >> it's possible that there's ton of demand for two of the artists and almost zero like negative demand like >> you have to pay people to take sure uh some of the other stuff.
2:34:46
So that that's that's a factor I I think.
2:34:48
Uh, but tell me if I'm wrong. >> I mean, it depends.
2:34:53
Look, I think that not every dealer is just, you know, market driven and there's maybe work that they haven't shown that they want to see how the reaction is or, you know, there's always a surprise of some interest.
2:35:06
But yeah, no, it's it's it's financially difficult.
2:35:09
I mean, a lot of these a lot of the galleries, you know, it's kind of like I I kind of equate it to emerging artists.
2:35:15
You know, there's we all know so many artists who are so successful and so financially successful, but there is that point where, you know, you're just so close to losing money or not quite making it.
2:35:24
Um, and that's like a very fine line between the other side and and and leaving, you know, at a loss.
2:35:34
>> What uh what what tech uh billionaires or tech elite are doing the most for the arts right now?
2:35:40
Because I feel like there's historically been a criticism of the tech industry where you have uh people that make a lot of money and then they're just like, I'm just going to spend, you know, hund00 million on anti-aging.
2:35:51
I'm not going to fund the next uh uh you know, museum or or uh build a castle or or etc.
2:35:59
>> I want to do >> I don't know if that's entirely true.
2:36:01
I think what the >> I don't I'm not saying I I'm not saying I I believe it's true, but I'm just saying historically that's like one criticism. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Maybe. Maybe.
2:36:09
I mean, I think what a lot of the tech billionaires that I know that have built unbelievable collections have done is not shown their work, >> not shown their collections.
2:36:17
So, I think a lot of people aren't aware of the level in which some of these tech billionaires are a interested in art and b collect so deeply.
2:36:25
Um, so in terms of, you know, underwriting museums or programs, I don't I don't I don't know.
2:36:35
I mean, do we need more tech billionaires to buy more art? Of course. And in Yeah, definitely.
2:36:43
>> This is we're putting we're putting the word out.
2:36:44
I'm sure I'm sure that will actually that should catalyze at least at least a few million of of new art purchases for people in our audience that are kind of maybe on the fence about buying. >> Not sure. Should I not?
2:36:57
>> What do you think about what do you think about the sphere?
2:36:58
Uh because we we have a general belief that it is >> in Vegas. >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:37:07
No, it just feels like it there was again a criticism that we we forgot how to make beautiful massive we forgot how to make cathedrals >> and yet the sphere feels like a it is the most commercial piece of art maybe ever but when you look at it on the skyline in Vegas like this is this is a modern >> it's America's Mona Lisa.
2:37:29
>> Okay, let me say I have never been to the sphere. >> Wow. Uncultured. Uncultured.
2:37:33
This is unculted uncultured magazine never.
2:37:39
>> That's what I should really name my magazine.
2:37:40
But I have to tell you that I do know a few artists who have been to the sphere who say that's pretty incredible. >> Yeah, it is wild.
2:37:46
But yes, I mean it's it's it's it's remarkable in like a cyberpunk way. Totally.
2:37:51
Not necessarily like a beautiful way. Absolutely.
2:37:54
You should absolutely go um to to experience the new canvas that is the the sphere.
2:38:01
Uh, no, obviously it is a it is a uh it's a it's a it's a capital.
2:38:08
>> How do you rate how do you uh how are you processing LA as of late?
2:38:10
To me, it's starting to feel like uh Detroit of the West.
2:38:16
It feels like uh uh I >> No, it just feels like this was a center for art and culture and entertainment and traditional Hollywood has been so battered that it's like the beauty the buildings are less beautiful.
2:38:32
Uh it I I think the streets were always dirty.
2:38:35
Uh but the restaurants are less full.
2:38:39
There's not as many like new great restaurants as I think there there may have once been.
2:38:43
Uh it feels somewhat um kind of uh uh in secular decline. Heartbroken too.
2:38:53
>> I mean, look, I I did open an office in New York this year and uh I've been mostly in New York this year.
2:38:57
I I think look, LA is a great city. It's a downturn.
2:39:02
I think that's, you know, I think most people that I know that could leave left.
2:39:05
Um, someone was saying to me the other day that we're like we're kind of like just postco now with LA and how out of co kind of LA was really all of the sectors and all of the things that you just mentioned were kind of growing on the up and up.
2:39:19
There was a lot of energy around it and then after the fires last January things kind of leveled out and I think that you know look we all know it's a great city the energy moves.
2:39:30
I think the energy is not there right now.
2:39:33
>> Um I'm sure it'll come back. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
2:39:35
I asked uh a good friend of mine uh very controversial figure in the in the art world, Stefan Simquitz. >> Oh, I know him well.
2:39:44
>> I was like, give me >> What did he say?
2:39:45
He probably said, "Lie's great." >> No, no.
2:39:47
The example I was like, "Hey, we're we we our lease expires next year.
2:39:51
We're looking uh for a new space."
2:39:51
And I was like, "Are there any like uh massive amazing art galleries that you think are going to shut down?"
2:39:59
And he was like, "I can."
2:40:02
He immediately was like, "Here's four."
2:40:03
And uh and so again uh uh >> are you texting him right now?
2:40:10
>> No, I didn't text him. Um they're not four. He's he's exaggerating. Um but that's funny.
2:40:18
>> Well, I think there there's there's a handful because I got offered to tour them.
2:40:23
Um but uh >> uh any anyways um >> I mean look, LA is not known for its collectors. >> Sure.
2:40:30
>> There was a great experiment.
2:40:30
I mean, look how many galleries opened in LA post 2020.
2:40:34
I mean, I know some dealers who said, "I'm just I'm opening in LA to show great work, not to cultivate more collectors."
2:40:40
A lot of the great collectors in LA sometimes buy in New York.
2:40:44
>> So, I think the fact that LA is having a, let's just say, a more challenging moment and some of the galleries there are closing.
2:40:52
Um, I I talked to a few of my friends who have uh great galleries in LA and they said, "Let's not even talk about sales. foot traffic is down. >> So, >> yeah.
2:41:04
And some of the places we've looked at, like you're spending $100,000 a month for a place that doesn't get any foot traffic that is like I mean, when we're when we're visiting, it's like during normal hours and they're just empty.
2:41:18
Uh so anyways, definitely correction in in the works, but uh as you said, it can be healthy.
2:41:24
So, >> um anyways, I wish we had more time. This was super fun.
2:41:28
uh any anytime anytime you want the the tech industry to to do something like buy more art, come on the show and but it was uh great great to meet you and um >> yeah, nice to meet you.
2:41:43
Look forward to talking again soon.
2:41:45
>> We'll talk to you soon. >> Thanks so much. >> Cheers. >> Merry Christmas.
2:41:48
>> Uh our next guest is from the General Intelligence Company of New York.
2:41:51
He's waiting in the reream waiting room.
2:41:54
We have Andrew >> Hagnanelli.
2:41:57
I hope I'm saying that correctly.
2:41:59
Andrew, sorry to keep you waiting. How are you? Welcome to the show.
2:42:04
Thanks so much for hopping on.
2:42:06
Please introduce yourself, introduce the company, and give us the news. What's >> Yeah.
2:42:11
So, uh, my name is Andrew. Actually, >> the flow. The flow.
2:42:14
Can we get a side profile of the flow real quick?
2:42:19
>> It's really nice, right?
2:42:20
>> Oh, there we hit the gong for the flow.
2:42:22
Hit the gong for the flow. There we go. >> Nice. Nice.
2:42:27
>> Um, sorry to interrupt. They do like the hair.
2:42:29
They definitely like the hair. >> That's great. That's great. >> Yeah.
2:42:33
I mean, I Sorry, I think there's a little bit of delay here.
2:42:36
Um, and my name is Andrew.
2:42:36
I run General Intelligence.
2:42:38
Today, we just announced our $8.
2:42:40
7 million seed round, which >> Send it, John, again. >> Let's go. >> Incredible. Uh, who led it? It was led by USB.
2:42:54
So, you know, we're New York based company. We love New York City.
2:42:56
We wanted someone who was right here at home and I only have to walk two blocks from the board meeting, which is really nice. >> That's amazing.
2:43:05
>> Um, uh, give us the history.
2:43:05
I mean, first time on the show, obviously.
2:43:08
I've followed you for, >> uh, probably, I don't know, a year, close to a year now.
2:43:14
But, um, what, uh, yeah, give us kind of the origins, what you guys are working on, all that good stuff. >> Yeah.
2:43:22
So, we started working on this about a year ago with this kind of crazy idea of like what if we could get agents to run companies and >> we really worked backwards from that.
2:43:31
We like we we picked let's go with the craziest thing we can do because I bet that there's a way for us to get resources for it and if the idea is a little bit crazier, they'll give us more resources.
2:43:42
And so, we picked that >> uh me and my co-founder uh Obby and we started working on it.
2:43:48
We started working on a demo we worked on for about two months and then in March we were like let's turn this into a company.
2:43:53
So the initial demo was just an agent that could call some tools and um then we did a a small round in March led by compound ran the company for about 6 months before launching co-founder in September.
2:44:06
Uh and we were able to make that launch go very very well.
2:44:08
Um and so you know we we got viral with that. People loved it.
2:44:14
People really liked using the product.
2:44:15
Uh we went viral through the sweaters too.
2:44:17
The sweaters actually helped us promote our product more than probably the product itself.
2:44:23
>> Wait, so what was co-founder and what was the sweater?
2:44:25
Was co-founder wearing the sweater?
2:44:29
>> Uh, you know, co-founder is a plant.
2:44:29
So Oh, I have a bunch of them right here.
2:44:33
That's that's co-founder.
2:44:33
And uh it's like this AI chief of staff.
2:44:36
So it will let you hook stuff up and do automations.
2:44:40
And uh we've built it into this very proactive like assistant feeling thing.
2:44:44
So, you're not just really telling it what to do.
2:44:46
It will actually prompt you instead of you having to prompt it.
2:44:50
Um, and we wanted to figure out how do we how do we promote this?
2:44:55
And so, uh, I went and I got these sweaters made and they're like very rainbowy like they have all the all the different colors.
2:45:03
>> The logo name on there, too. That's cool. >> Yeah.
2:45:05
Underutilized underutilized merch format. >> Yes.
2:45:09
I never see the cozy sweater. That's cool. >> Very cool. >> Yeah.
2:45:14
Um, and we posted about him like we just got our first shipment of him.
2:45:18
I just posted a photo and it goes by virus like a million plus views and I I go from having like 300 followers to a couple thousand and we were going to launch three days later and so this made it really easy for us to launch and and have co-founder do well. >> Yeah.
2:45:35
So I mean how do you think the the the business actually evolves?
2:45:37
Do you think that uh there's a world where the you know the product is plugging into all of the enterprise tools?
2:45:44
It seems like with even just the co-founder branding it feels like this is an early stage product or that's at least like the the the early adopter would be a small company.
2:45:54
You're not coming into a company where it's like yeah we already have a data lake and they 5,000 employees and we need you to go around and find stuff.
2:46:02
It's much more of a you know an early stage tool.
2:46:04
Is is that correct or you think it'll grow?
2:46:06
Like h how do you think um the the use case will change over the next few years as you build out the business?
2:46:14
>> Yeah, so it's definitely early stage.
2:46:14
Um we we want people who are let's say between like three and and 50 people um on smaller companies, but we're really going from co-founder to this full stack AI business.
2:46:28
So, our goal is to get agents to run companies, and we've decided, you know, we're not going to be able to do that by adding one piece to an assistant until it gets really far.
2:46:41
We're actually working on a full stack AI business.
2:46:43
Um, we realized while while building these ourselves that we had this ability to make these workflows internally where you're taking like a customer support ticket and you can directly plug that into an agent that writes some code and plug it into an agent that that reviews and QAs the feature and then ships it to prod without any people involved.
2:47:02
And so we're sprinting towards this entire business uh with with just agents and we think we can get there by March.
2:47:10
What uh what kind of businesses do you think are most uh the name implies you're trying to build a general intelligence.
2:47:19
I imagine that means an AI that could run any business, but have you thought about uh specific types of businesses that are best suited to be run by an agent?
2:47:27
Uh and and how how are you like testing the product?
2:47:31
I understand you probably test it internally with your own team.
2:47:35
Uh but uh yeah, when you talk about like timeline to uh an agent running an entire business by March, like what kind of business is that?
2:47:45
What like how do you make that more concrete? >> Yeah.
2:47:51
So, uh some of the things that we test are the ability to actually do something end to end, right?
2:47:57
So, this whole uh write a piece of code that can get shipped to prod without any people involved.
2:48:03
Um that's something you can test, right?
2:48:04
if it breaks broad, it it's going to, you know, be a failure there.
2:48:08
Um, but we're working on this with a couple of businesses, smaller businesses internally, and like there there's not public yet, but the way that the business looks is very similar to ourselves.
2:48:19
So, it's a software company uh in B2B, and it also relies a lot on how the agent market develops.
2:48:25
So we rely on other agents by other companies like uh like a coding agent where we're going to be using looks like factory or tempo or something like that.
2:48:34
Customer support agents by uh companies like Sierra and Decagon.
2:48:37
Um and then uh sales market agents like like rocks. >> Rocks.
2:48:43
>> We're going to be building this in a way that like leans on those agents and those are conducive to a B2B software company and that's really what we're building first. >> That's very cool. Are you AGI pilled? >> Very AIDS.
2:48:55
know, we all have different definitions, right?
2:48:57
And so my personal definition, it's in my Twitter bio.
2:48:59
I keep it the the timeline that I think we're going to have to AGI, and it's much faster than everybody else's, but my definition is like >> tomorrow. It's tomorrow.
2:49:09
>> My timeline is tomorrow. >> Really? >> 5. 2. >> Um, >> we'll see. >> Yeah. 5.
2:49:15
2 is my is my AGI for sure.
2:49:19
>> We're we're thinking about it like like you know, Her the movie Her. >> Yeah.
2:49:23
My personal definition is when do we get that?
2:49:26
Um a we already have people falling in love.
2:49:29
>> Don't we already have that just with some of the population? >> Yeah.
2:49:33
I mean we're kind of close, right?
2:49:34
Like like some of the stuff that you could do today is 90% of what you can do in that movie.
2:49:38
And I bet within the next 12 months it'll be 100%. >> Yeah.
2:49:42
Sort of like a diffusion question because like smartphones have arrived.
2:49:46
Uh there are Amish people that don't use smartphones, right?
2:49:49
Like there are plenty of people that that don't.
2:49:51
There's probably millions of people that don't use smartphones for a variety of reasons.
2:49:54
Uh there will I I believe like for you know a hundred years there will be people that will be like I don't talk to clankers right but at the same time like we are pretty close.
2:50:03
Uh anyway we we could talk about AGI for the next two hours but uh we have to move on.
2:50:06
So thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us.
2:50:10
Congratulations >> great great to meet finally congrats on the progress.
2:50:13
We're going to keep we should we should add like something to our ticker like what is Andrew's AGI time.
2:50:18
get the we'll get the update daily.
2:50:21
But uh yeah, congrats on congrats on progress.
2:50:24
>> We'll talk to you soon. >> Have a good one. >> Goodbye. Cheers.
2:50:27
>> Uh let me tell you about wander. com.
2:50:29
Book a wonder with inspiring reviews, hotel grade amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, and 247 concier service.
2:50:33
It's a vacation home but better.
2:50:33
Folks, um our next guest is Brian Miller from Stable.
2:50:40
He's the CEO and we have some big news from them. Uh let's bring him in. How you doing, Brian? Ho ho ho. >> Merry Christmas. Good to see you. How are you doing?
2:50:52
Uh please uh since you're new on the show, introduce yourself. Introduce the company.
2:50:55
Love to hear about what you're building. >> Sure.
2:50:58
>> Well, thanks for having me. I'm Brian Mailer.
2:51:00
I'm the stable uh CEO of stable.
2:51:02
Uh for those that are know, we're a layer 1 blockchain.
2:51:04
We're focused on, you know, redefining the payment rails that money moves through uh whether it's cross borders or cross country.
2:51:09
So, uh you know, we launched earlier today.
2:51:12
It was a big big event for us. We had the Bayet launch. Thank you.
2:51:15
And um >> uh that's good. >> Yeah. >> Sorry. >> Uh okay.
2:51:24
So >> every >> the obvious question is why another stable coin, right?
2:51:30
>> Well well no I mean not not necessarily you're so you're building an a new L1 for payments.
2:51:36
>> Uh it seems like every single >> every single layer one blockchain maybe not every single one.
2:51:42
Some some are more obviously like hyperlquid, more trading focused and there's others.
2:51:46
But everybody's going after the payment opportunity for obvious reasons.
2:51:49
Like how do different layer ones differentiate?
2:51:53
What's going to separate stable from other players?
2:51:55
Like how how is stable kind of more opinion?
2:51:58
I'm sure it's opinionated uh in ways that maybe like you know tempo isn't or Salana isn't it, etc.
2:52:06
Um and so yeah, curious how you're differentiating. >> Yeah.
2:52:11
It's a great question and we get it a lot and I think the way that we're able to answer it best is by talking about you know whether it's the team that's backed us.
2:52:18
So we have PayPal ventures, we have um you know we advisers like Paulo from CEO of Tether, you know we we're partnered with Anchorage.
2:52:26
So we have like a very good um tool set that we're playing with that's able to help us launch.
2:52:29
But in addition to that like getting a little bit more of the technical side of things is our gas token which is usually a complication of other chains is USDT.
2:52:36
So for that, you know, when people are moving money, the 70 to 80% of the uh stable coins out there in the world right now is being used as USDT and that's what you use to pay your fees on our network rather than having a complication about buying another token and worrying about other chains.
2:52:52
For us, you're able to just use USDT and spend USDT.
2:52:57
So that's I think our biggest differentiator that we have right now.
2:53:00
And then in addition to that is also the speed.
2:53:01
So when you want to use um a traditional layer one, let's say Ethereum, you want to move USDT there.
2:53:07
You know, it's slow and it's expensive and it's volatile and gas and you know, we got tired of that.
2:53:10
So we just ripped it out and put in USDT, which everyone knows and is already using as our gas token.
2:53:16
>> Uh so sounds like you have some awesome partners lined up already.
2:53:19
How does this market shape out?
2:53:21
Is it is it kind of a land grab right now where you're trying to sign up as many uh institutions to uh support stable or or make you their preferred L1 for moving stable coins between them and other institutions or or internally? How how does that look?
2:53:38
>> Yeah, I mean you're definitely right there. It's definitely busy.
2:53:40
Uh there's a lot of people wanting to to get out the picks and shovels and start digging and we I think we're we're ahead of that.
2:53:46
So we already launched as we said today and that's kind of like a big milestone for us.
2:53:49
Um, so we got into the build phase and got into the launch phase.
2:53:52
But I would say in terms of like why it's an interactive market is that everyone uses money.
2:53:56
Um, and there's a frustration of using it whether you're using traditional credit cards or checks or whatever if you're still using cash.
2:54:03
That's just a complication that people are kind of tired of dealing with and they don't understand why.
2:54:05
You know, if you're if you're trying to buy something on the weekend and you need to like wire some over like $2,000 that you can't go get on Zel or Venmo, like you got to wait till Monday.
2:54:14
And that's just a weird complication that I think a lot of people are getting tired of.
2:54:17
And so using stable coins in the in an easy sense is kind of how we're solving that problem. >> Go for it.
2:54:25
>> So yeah, I I'm just uh wondering more of like help me understand what what folks are using Tether directly for versus how do like what value prop you build?
2:54:36
Uh obviously you're you know friendly and uh and partnered in many ways.
2:54:41
Um, but how how does that relationship evolve over the next few years with with Tether?
2:54:49
>> Look, I mean, I would say Tether is just on a on a growth uh growth trajectory that you know is pretty unmatched.
2:54:53
So, we're happy to be a part of that ride um and help facilitate it.
2:54:56
I think you know Tether exists on a number of chains and that's one of the facilities that we're able to provide is a chain that it runs faster, easier, and less expensive.
2:55:07
That's really what we're doing amplifying their message. >> Okay, cool. Yeah, that makes sense. Thank you.
2:55:11
Um, well, thank you so much for taking the time to come explain that to us.
2:55:15
Uh, appreciate having you on the show and merry Christmas.
2:55:18
>> Sure you'll be back on soon.
2:55:19
>> Yeah, we'll talk to you soon.
2:55:20
>> Congrats on congrats on the launch. Super exciting. >> Have a good one. >> Appreciate it. >> Cheers. >> Bye. >> Thanks.
2:55:25
>> Up next, we have Will Wilson from Antithesis on December 3rd.
2:55:28
Jane Street led Antithesis uh their 105 million series A to make deterministic simulation the new testing standard.
2:55:37
They have an incredibly stacked list of investors.
2:55:42
Dores Patel, Shelto Douglas, and Patrick Collison. >> Whoa.
2:55:45
Two out of the two out of the three roommates. >> Yeah. What happened? What happened?
2:55:47
You didn't do a road show where you go from bedroom to bedroom showing off what you built and they're like, "Do you want to invest sharks?"
2:55:55
I imagine you sit down and you say, "Shark. Shark.
2:55:57
Here's what I'm building."
2:56:00
>> You know, it's it's funny.
2:56:00
I think I think they all ended up coming in for very different reasons, but we're certainly very >> You got You got Dylan.
2:56:05
He just wasn't he wasn't big enough to get into the press release.
2:56:09
>> Get to the press release. >> Brutal. Brutal.
2:56:12
>> I cannot comment on investors who may or may not be in our press release. >> Okay.
2:56:15
Well, >> uh well, thank you so much.
2:56:17
Uh please uh explain this to me like I'm not Dwarash and I'm not a researcher at Anthropic.
2:56:25
Uh what what are what are you building uh at at like a very very basic level? Who's the customer?
2:56:29
What's the problem you're solving?
2:56:30
Uh, and then I do want you to walk me through some of the technology as much as we can, but I'd like to start with just like the the highlevel problem description if possible. >> Sure. Okay.
2:56:40
So, the super basic problem description is like Mark Andre once said that software is eating the world. I think that's true.
2:56:46
I think AI has made that more true.
2:56:49
>> And the thing is that's actually kind of a bad thing in some ways because software doesn't work very well.
2:56:52
Like like we I feel like we all have Stockholm syndrome about this.
2:56:56
Like when I when I walk into a building, I don't wonder in the back of my head, is this building going to collapse on me?
2:57:03
And yet, every time I use a software product, I know there's some random chance that it's just going to totally fail.
2:57:11
>> And if you think about it, that's that's really not okay.
2:57:14
And that's what we're that's what we're trying to fix.
2:57:15
We don't think it has to be that way.
2:57:16
Um, we think the reason it is that way is because people have been building and testing software wrong for the last 70 years, which is like maybe a slightly hubistic and crazy thing to say, but we think we've got a better way to do it.
2:57:30
>> I have an ongoing war with Rune about whether or not the United app has gotten better or worse over the past few years because I use it as a heristic for like AI diffusion because he'll he'll tell he'll say, "Hey, the AI models are amazing.
2:57:42
Like you you just you just yell at the codeex model.
2:57:44
It'll do exactly what you want." I'm like, "Oh, really?
2:57:47
Well, then why did I have a bug in my United app when I was trying to fly across the country?
2:57:51
>> Well, maybe they haven't adopted >> and then he'll tell me it's actually way better.
2:57:54
It's actually they actually are improving their software.
2:57:56
But, uh, walk me through deterministic simulation.
2:57:59
Like, what does that look like in practice of I have a piece of software.
2:58:03
I have some some vibecoded sloth app that I'm worried about completely blowing up and leaking all my users data and, you know, and failing to work in a bunch of different scenarios.
2:58:12
Like, like how am I actually using your product? Am I plugging in? What's going on? What's the workflow? >> Yeah. Okay.
2:58:18
So, so, so here's the basic idea.
2:58:20
Um, so like the traditional way people test software is you have your app and you sit down and you think really hard and you use your big brain and you're like, what are all the situations that this thing could run in?
2:58:30
What are all the things that people could do?
2:58:31
What are all the situations it has to handle?
2:58:32
And then I sit down, I the developer, right, and I write a bunch of manual test cases for each of those things and make sure that they run in my CI system or whatever.
2:58:41
And it's like, hooray, I've tested my software.
2:58:45
except you've totally not tested your software, right?
2:58:47
Because the thing that's actually going to blow up and totally screw you and and be a disaster is not something that you thought of.
2:58:55
It's something that you didn't think of, right?
2:58:56
It's like an unknown unknown.
2:58:58
>> And so we have the exact opposite approach.
2:59:01
We say instead, we're just going to take your actual software >> and we're going to run it in a simulation >> of the real world and we're going to throw the kitchen sink at it.
2:59:10
We're going to like have the worst users ever doing the worst things ever and it's going to be running in the worst data center ever and like computers are going to be crashing and like hackers going to be trying to break it, whatever.
2:59:19
Like it's just going to be really awful.
2:59:20
And then we're going to see what actually happens empirically.
2:59:23
And you can tell us, hey, here's the stuff I promise my software will never do and we're going to see if we can find a way to make it do that.
2:59:32
>> Why Why are you framing this as deterministic simulation?
2:59:33
That sounds like a whole lot of nondeterministic stuff going on. >> Yeah.
2:59:39
So the key is we have the the slightly crazy computer science thing we've done well no one of one of the slightly crazy things we've done is we've basically built a way to run any computer program fully deterministically which is which is a little nuts but it's really really important because it gets rid of the like works on my machine thing forever.
2:59:59
So if we find some really weird rare software problem which only manifests one a billion times but like you know it launches the nuclear missiles and so you really don't want it to happen even one a billion times.
3:00:13
>> Um we can perfectly reproduce that.
3:00:13
So if we find it once you can just replay it over and over and over again until you're able to fix it. >> Interesting.
3:00:20
Uh what's the >> what is the what is the like sci-fi scenario that you're building against?
3:00:27
like is this is part of this tie-in.
3:00:29
Like I'm trying to understand why like specifically why you got the roommate three Pete because software testing is cool but I imagine there's like kind of this like you know 10year vision like AGI vision where we need to test for that you know one out of a billion uh uh times that the nuclear missile codes get launched or the whole surface of the planet is blanketed with solar. >> Yeah.
3:00:52
I mean, you know, I think I think if you believe that we're about to go into like a very exciting AI future, then I think there's probably going to be a whole lot more software written.
3:01:04
>> And probably some of it's going to be written by entities that are not like you and me.
3:01:08
They're like some kind of AI agent.
3:01:10
Maybe we don't fully understand them.
3:01:12
Maybe we don't fully understand their incentives or their motivations or their failure modes or whatever.
3:01:16
Seems like having a really really good way of telling if software does what you think it does would be handy in that scenario. >> That makes sense.
3:01:26
So, somebody makes an an AI agent that uh that like processes like things that were faxed in and there's like some, you know, faxed into a doctor's office and there's some edge case where it it hires a private army and like tries to kill the fax machine company and you're like, well, an agent wrote this agent, so we need to actually test to make sure it's not like secretly like completely insane, >> right?
3:01:52
You've got that and then you've also just got more prosaic and boring situations, right?
3:01:55
Like I hired an AI agent to like write the next version of the United app and like oops.
3:01:58
Like if I'm if I'm in the middle of booking a ticket when my subway train goes into a tunnel, it books like 10 million tickets.
3:02:06
Like I don't I don't want that.
3:02:08
United doesn't want that, you know.
3:02:09
>> No, I I like I like this opportunity.
3:02:11
You can sell you can sell the product against like very real problems today and also get the and still like, you know, have the this like bigger very like real kind of like sci-fi element to it. >> Okay.
3:02:24
So I I I have the interpretation of Roommate Ventures coming in.
3:02:27
Uh I don't have the interpretation of the implications of Jane Street coming in.
3:02:34
Uh is this is this relevant to highfrequency trading software or are they just purely financial investors?
3:02:41
Like how strategic are they as a partner? >> Oh yeah.
3:02:44
So the the way we got Jane Street in this actually is just that they it started out as them being a customer. Okay.
3:02:49
um they've been >> one of our best and largest customers for you know a little under a year >> and um have really put the system through its paces and are using it to do some really really cool stuff. >> Yeah.
3:03:03
And basically what initially happened was we were raising around.
3:03:05
We planned to go the standard Silicon Valley route, you know, and um and we were just going to have Jane Street put in like a small amount of money as a strategic.
3:03:15
>> And then they offered to lead the round, which we were not expecting.
3:03:17
And you know, we sort of thought about it and we were like, "Wait a minute, that's actually the coolest thing ever."
3:03:21
Like, you know, what a what an endorsement.
3:03:25
And you know, from one of the greatest names in software, like how can we not do this?
3:03:29
>> Have you considered writing your codebase in Okamel?
3:03:33
I think I think it's likely that there's going to be excellent Okamel support in our platform. >> Fantastic.
3:03:39
That's the best news I've heard all day.
3:03:41
>> Hit the gong for that. >> Uh very very cool. >> That's great news.
3:03:49
>> One of one of the one of the more one of the more unique uh fundraising announcements we've had this year.
3:03:54
>> Yeah, this is a fun fun project. I really like it.
3:03:56
Uh well well congratulations and thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us.
3:04:00
I'm sure you'll be back on soon.
3:04:00
I'm sure you're already getting unwanted term sheets, you know, hurled at you. >> I believe it.
3:04:09
>> Enjoy enjoy processing those. >> Yeah. >> Awesome.
3:04:12
>> Uh >> have a good one, guys. Thank you.
3:04:13
>> We'll talk to you soon.
3:04:13
Great to meet >> uh and that brings us towards the end of our show. Perfectly timed 2 p. m. on the dot. We are in fighting form.
3:04:21
Uh we're going to play you out with some Christmas music, I suppose.
3:04:26
Uh, in other news, markets are predicting that the time person of the year will either be the pope who's concerned about AI, the biggest promoter of AI, Sam Alman, the supplier of the hardware behind AI, Jensen, or just AI.
3:04:44
Uh, it seems almost certain it's a lock that time 2025 person of the year will have something to do with AI.
3:04:49
Um, in other news, where where else is Oh.
3:04:53
Oh, uh, we didn't get to SpaceX news, but, uh, it was rumored that SpaceX uh, told or was reported actually in the information by Katie Roof that SpaceX told their investors, "We're aiming for APO, IPO, late 2026."
3:05:06
Late 2026, we're going to be a public company.
3:05:10
Uh, but a lot of people are interpreting this, reading the tea leaves.
3:05:16
You have Ken Kirtland saying, I'm not exaggerating.
3:05:19
It's not doom posting to say this, but this is the end. They are not serious.
3:05:23
They are not serious about any part of Mars.
3:05:25
If this is done, there's no world where shareholders will let you spend tens of billions of dollars with the express intent of no return, which is what Mars settlement is.
3:05:33
In fact, it would be illegal, literally illegal to do so. Uh, not true at all. Look at the metaverse. Look at what Meta did.
3:05:40
uh if you have control over the company you can you can spend what he said $86 billion is what Z >> I'm just expecting SpaceX's telecom business to do tens of billions of profit. >> Yes. Yes.
3:05:53
If you get big enough I mean SpaceX I think to date has burnt something like 10 billion across all the fundraising and a lot of that's been like secondary stuff.
3:06:00
So like they haven't burnt that much.
3:06:02
Uh and of course people are dunking on Zuck right now for pulling back on the metaverse.
3:06:08
Austin Allred had a good post here.
3:06:08
He said fire Mark Zuckerberg uh fired kind of botch this but said uh Mark Zuckerberg fired because he lost the company 77 billion should probably consider that he also made his company 1.
3:06:20
6 trillion and so uh the same thing could definitely be true.
3:06:22
So I I believe if SpaceX went public that would not necessarily take the foot off the gas of the Mars mission.
3:06:29
I don't think that's necessarily what would happen.
3:06:31
Um but Dan Primac has a little bit more nuance of a take here talking about what might be happening behind the scenes.
3:06:36
says SpaceX prepping late 2026 IPO per the information, not just Starlink, which is what people were rumoring they'd spin out Starlink.
3:06:43
I don't think that makes any sense.
3:06:44
Um, but this comes just after just comes just days after reports that OpenAI was weighing an entry into space.
3:06:52
So maybe it's a bit of PR maneuvering given that Elon Musk doesn't seem to like having a public company.
3:06:55
He took Twitter private and then he wanted to take Tesla private, too.
3:06:59
Um, and then uh and then Katie Roof says, "Does he even have PR people, lol?"
3:07:04
And Dan Primac says, "Don't need PR people to have a PR strategy."
3:07:11
And uh yeah, he might have he might have he might have directly emailed all the investors that he knew would leak, you know, and that doesn't require a PR person.
3:07:18
And so Elon actually chimed in.
3:07:21
He said there's been a lot of press claiming that SpaceX is raising money at $800 billion, which is not accurate.
3:07:27
SpaceX has been cash flow positive for many years and does periodic stock buybacks twice a year to provide liquidity for employees and investors.
3:07:35
Valuation increments are a function of progress with Starship and Starlink and securing global directtoell spectrum greatly increases our addressable market.
3:07:43
And one thing that one other thing that is arguably most significant thus far, blah blah blah blah blah. Anyway, ridiculous.
3:07:54
>> John, I got to say I'm bummed that we got to end the show right now. >> We do. We do.
3:07:58
>> You got to get on with Pasadena. >> I do.
3:08:00
>> You got some celebrating to do over in that in that area. >> Neck of the woods.
3:08:03
Um, I can't wait for tomorrow.
3:08:06
I'm so happy to be back in the Ultradoo.
3:08:07
Glad we don't have to travel for the rest of the year.
3:08:10
>> No travel for the rest of the year. >> We're hanging out. >> We're podcasting. >> The team is thrilled. We're thrilled.
3:08:16
Thank you for hanging out with us today. We love you all dearly. We'll talk to you soon. Have an amazing evening.
3:08:21
We will see you tomorrow. >> Goodbye. >> Cheers. >> Bye.