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>> Today is Monday, October 13th, 2025.
5:00
We are live from the TBPN Ultra Dome, the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. Let's go. Did you see?
5:13
We got some media attention. That's right.
5:15
Hey, we were mentioned on Cheeky Pint.
5:17
Charlie Songhurst and Mark Andre chatting with John Collison on Cheeky Pint.
5:22
You probably saw it over the weekend.
5:24
Of course, we are talking about the New York Times.
5:27
We were on the cover of the Sunday business section.
5:29
Thank you with the gray lady >> came out. A couple scratches. Couple scratches.
5:37
Uh, thank you to Mike Isaac for coming to the Ultradome, hanging out with the whole team, >> trying to understand the absurdity of this show.
5:48
>> Uh, we had a lot of fun.
5:50
>> And it was funny, the digital version of the article came out at 2:00 a. m. Pacific on Saturday. >> Yeah.
5:57
>> And, uh, I ended up waking up. >> Yeah. What's your sleep score?
6:01
>> What's your sleep score for that night?
6:03
Because >> Oh, it was pretty brutal, actually.
6:03
got a bunch of text messages from you and Dylan at at 3 in the morning.
6:06
You guys have clearly read it. Woke up and read it. >> Uh yeah, I got a 43. >> Whoa.
6:14
That's That's New York Times for you, baby.
6:17
>> Uh yeah, so pretty pretty rough, but um uh I thought it turned out great. >> It's good.
6:22
We got a ramp mention in there. Time is money. Save both.
6:24
Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place.
6:29
We also got a poly market mention in there.
6:31
This is why you advertise on TVPN.
6:33
We'll get you mentioned in the New York Times.
6:35
Um >> uh but yeah, it was fun fun uh article. >> Yeah, it was good.
6:41
Uh but there was bigger news than us, bigger news than our war to bring Sports Center to LinkedIn. Uh it's actually funny. We are >> It's funny.
6:50
Can you imagine like the real LinkedIn heads that are going to read that article >> be like these guys don't take seriously at all culture.
6:59
>> They don't understand.
7:00
>> They don't represent us. They're on X.
7:02
They're bigger on X than they are on LinkedIn.
7:04
These guys are fake LinkedIn heads.
7:07
Uh, no, we are trying to grow our LinkedIn.
7:09
If you want to help us on our war path to bring technology news for the first time to LinkedIn and educate the unwashed masses on LinkedIn as to the nature of technology.
7:20
Uh, we'd love to have you join the team.
7:22
We're looking for a social media manager, someone to help with growth, someone to help post and repurpose content, clip, uh, also do new.
7:31
>> Looks like some hybrid of somebody that enjoys writing. Yep.
7:34
>> Enjoys the content of the show and wants to >> basically uh repurpose the show's content for the LinkedIn feed.
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Y >> uh, it sounds uh, I think it is a lot more fun than it sounds. >> Exactly.
7:49
uh you get to hang out here at the Ultradome every day.
7:53
>> You have to view these platforms as like large systems that you can kind of understand how to optimize within them.
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And so on YouTube, you know, there's the the title, the thumbnail, there's this whole game of like what the current thing is on YouTube.
8:07
Like if you if you do an interview with Mr.
8:10
Beast, you're just going to get a ton of views on YouTube.
8:13
That's not the case on X.
8:13
We'd love to have him on the show.
8:16
would be fun, but it's not going to be our biggest draw.
8:18
Somebody like Rune will be a great draw on X, but probably not on YouTube. And LinkedIn is similar.
8:23
We do a lot of content that does do well on LinkedIn already.
8:27
Uh, but there will be specific pieces of the show.
8:29
So, you have to work to figure out what's working and then how is their algorithm changing?
8:34
How is their content structure changing?
8:36
Like the me that like the medium is the message that's very real.
8:40
And so, you have to deliver content that fits within that.
8:42
Whether it's the vertical short form or the long posts or you know I I hear AI is extremely popular on LinkedIn.
8:47
So maybe you have to take our authentic content slopify. Sloppify it. Exactly.
8:51
That might be the key to success.
8:53
I don't really care what the key is.
8:55
Obviously we do have brand standards but uh we want you to come on and explore what works.
8:59
Find interesting niches of of strategies that work.
9:03
We've done this on Instagram. We've done >> Yeah.
9:06
I mean the main the main thing is we Yeah.
9:08
It's very much an art and a science.
9:10
It's also your job is not to post.
9:12
Your job is not to just deploy content against the feed.
9:14
Your job is to experiment and understand the platform better than anybody else.
9:20
>> The culture of the platform. Exactly. Exactly.
9:23
>> Um >> and we've done that with a lot of things.
9:24
We've had fun with uh with our Substack.
9:26
You can go subscribe tbp. com.
9:28
Uh and and I think we wound up coming up with a unique product in email.
9:31
It's a daily letter with a with one, you know, 500word rant by me >> with some timeline >> and then some timeline post and there and like you know everyone has an email newsletter.
9:44
There's a lot of email newsletters out there.
9:45
We still wanted to carve out something unique and we want to do the same thing on LinkedIn.
9:49
So please come help us and then obviously >> you know who understands the culture of American dynamism? >> Reream.
9:56
io of course one live stream 30 plus destinations multiream and reach your audience wherever they are. Uh no who? Tell me.
10:02
Uh JP Morgan JP Morgan uh at 3:00 am Pacific announces a $1.
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5 trillion dollar security and resiliency initiative to boost critical industries.
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Let's give it up for JP Morgan for saying the biggest number.
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>> This is the biggest number we've heard.
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>> Will make direct equity investments of up to 10 billion as part of the $ 1.
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5 trillion initiative to address pressing needs in key sectors from critical minerals minerals to frontier technologies. So, do they just have 1.
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5 trillion laying around like a >> 10-year plan >> to facilitate, finance, and invest in industries critical to national economic security, okay, and resiliency.
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>> Uh, as part of the new initiative, JP Morgan Chase will make direct equity and venture capital investments of up to 10 billion. >> That's a lot.
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>> These are uh >> direct equity, so growth equity.
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So yeah, I mean that's like an Andre sized or I guess Andre 65 billion or something a little bit more.
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>> Um but it's like >> yeah a a aum for some of the big funds like a general catalyst or a light speed like I feel like a lot of the a lot of the big venture funds are managing in the tens of billions now maybe something like that.
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So uh they're saying we're getting in the game watch your back.
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Jamie Diamond says, "It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products, manufacturing, all of which are essential uh for our national security.
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Our security is predicated on the strength and resiliency of America's economy.
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America needs more speed and investment.
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It also needs to remove obstacles that stand in the way, excessive regulations, bureaucratic delay, partisan gridlock, and an education system not aligned to the skills we need."
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the skills we need." So they are going to be focused on uh supply chain and advanced manufacturing including critical minerals, pharmaceutical precursors and robotics, defense and aerospace including defense tech,
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autonomous systems, drones, nextgen connectivity and secure communications, energy independence and resilience including battery storage, grid resilience and distributed energy and frontier and strategic technologies including AI, cyber security and quantum computing. You have to wonder if Sam
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You have to wonder if Sam gave the hard pitch to Jamie and said, "I know you were planning to give that one and a half trillion to a few people.
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I happen to have announced partnerships that require about one and a half trillion of capital."
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>> He's basically just like, "Why don't you just announce just be my banker and just do every deal up and down the stack?" Yeah.
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And finance my entire supply chain.
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Of course, uh I'm sure OpenAI will directly or indirectly get uh some of uh some of this investment.
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>> There's a lot a lot of stuff in here.
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A lot of a lot of uh categories that are pretty cool and we've talked to a lot of founders in these spaces. Very exciting.
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Noticeably absent, the luxury watch industry.
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Are we not focused on that?
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Is Bezel the Is Bezel the only company that's holding the line on on luxury watches?
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I mean, I guess I guess some of the uh bulk materials could be, you know, strategic diamond storage for iced out Pax.
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That that could be the solution. >> Definitely.
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>> But you can go get a watch at getbazzle. com.
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Your bezel concier is available now.
13:23
Source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch.
13:26
>> Um >> um >> anything else from this?
13:27
I mean, is this moving the markets?
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Is this why we're so back?
13:30
Did you see the market on Friday?
13:33
Yeah, I mean MP materials is up 23% today.
13:37
Uh but again there's other stories out there including the broader story around uh rare earth.
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>> Yeah, the NASDAQ is up 2. 2% today.
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We should have worn white suits. What were we thinking?
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I know >> and uh you know Friday we'll have another tomorrow. >> Friday was rough.
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The NASDAQ sold off almost 3%.
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But I think it's good because for the last two weeks, everyone has been saying it's a bubble. It's a bubble. It's a bubble. It's going to crash.
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And then it did crash >> on Friday. The bubble popped.
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>> People were expecting >> the bubble popped on Friday.
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>> And now we're out of the trough of disillusionment.
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We're in the plateau of productivity now.
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And so we can we we can stop saying it's a bubble because the bubble popped. That was Friday.
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Now we're ready to build again.
14:23
>> We're ready to move forward. It's time to build.
14:24
Um, no, of course, uh, the, uh, the Friday news was driven mostly by tariffs and, uh, and a lot of back and forth with China.
14:33
We have Ryan Peterson joining in just tw 20 minutes uh to talk about >> talk about how Donald Trump sleep who is an actor is almost a character in Ryan's >> personal movie that is just sent to torment him by announcing >> uh massive uh you know new new trade wars uh every other month.
14:53
Uh, in other news, uh, OpenAI is partnering with Broadcom to deploy 10 gigawatts of chips designed by OpenAI.
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Uh, Sophie aka Netcapgirl on X said AI won't peak until Broadcom starts getting hyped like Nvidia. That might be today.
15:10
Broadcom is up another 10% on this news even though we already sort of this had already been basically announced.
15:21
>> Um, so Broadcom, >> let's go, baby.
15:26
It's so funny if you you went and just on the street and and asked people, do you think Broadcom or Tesla is a bigger company?
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How many people how many people would would uh would pick Broadcom? I don't >> It is 1. 68 trillion. >> Yeah. Yeah.
15:40
We got to turn Hawkan into an Elon level meme.
15:43
You'll be like, I bought this network switch before the Hawk Tan went on TBPN or something like that. I don't know.
15:53
Um, >> Stefan in the chat says, "What do you think Trump's sleep score is?" That's a good question.
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I He's He must be sleeping like four hours a night. >> Yeah.
16:05
Is Is today's rally like a taco trade, right?
16:08
Is that what's going on or has there actually been news on uh like the tariffs? >> Yeah.
16:14
I think I think over the weekend >> That's what I want to talk to Ryan about. >> Yeah.
16:17
Over the weekend, I think it it it was a misunderstanding. >> Okay. Okay. Okay.
16:21
>> Like both sides have kind of backed off. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
16:25
>> Uh it's it's uh I mean immediately it it was remarkable how resilient you know we talk about the resilience of the American consumer but the res the resilience of the American retail trader is deeply underrated.
16:36
is deeply underrated. Uh we had multip I had interaction with multiple retail traders o over the weekend who immediately were like so this is a good time to buy the dip right it's like everything should be like flashing like this is the start of the end this is the crash of all 199
17:00
what if the the catalyst for AI sell this AI selloff was just Trump >> this could be the beginning like it's such a terri it's such like viscerally ter you're hearing stories about you know Bitcoin trading down 10% of the day uh coin trading see how many people were >> were so levered
17:19
>> yeah I had no idea this was a thing I mean usually like when I see the market trades down 2% I'm like okay I'm like 2% poorer today or whatever like I feel like I'm like roughly indexed to the market not like heavily levered either way um and I feel like my business is 2% rougher or like 2% better >> yeah there's just like these shots from
17:38
Reddit people being like, I've I every single dollar that I've like saved and invested over the last decade is gone to the point where like you didn't have like you love Bitcoin so much that you didn't just put like a few Bitcoin in a wallet and like I'm not going to ever up. >> No. Like like literally every person I >> No.
17:57
Like like literally every person I interacted with uh in the real world over the weekend was like I lost 20% of my net worth or something.
18:05
I'm like on a 2% move like what's what is your what is your strategy here?
18:09
Uh but a lot of people are >> Bitcoin Bitcoin sold off like >> 10% >> 10%. >> Yeah.
18:16
So you're just just a modest 2x lever Bitcoin as the core of your strategy.
18:22
>> Zoomer count on Ax Zoomer who we featured on the show before.
18:24
Um he like Thursday night was saying like hot take like leverage is the only way out of the permanent underclass or something like that.
18:38
>> Uh but he got $10,000 from Nikita's personal fund. >> He levered up.
18:42
Well yeah we'll go into Zoomergate and the backlash to the backlash to the backlash in just a second.
18:47
But if you're trying to get in on the action or protect what you got, you got to do it on public. com.
18:53
Investing for those who take it seriously.
18:54
You got multiasset investing, interested in yields, trusted by millions.
18:58
So you can say, "I've had enough with all the volatility. I'm going cash only. I'm going bonds only." Whatever you want. You can do it on public. >> Uh not on public.
19:06
over on Hyperlquid, two accounts were created Friday that shorted Bitcoin and and ended up successfully making around $200 million on these like very n not the not the insider trading size gong, John. Easy, easy.
19:26
We'll find another reason. >> Okay.
19:28
>> Hit the size gong for JP Morgan's one and a half trillion. Hit it a few times.
19:36
Uh, we are not going to do the size gong for insider trading. >> We don't know. Alleged insider trading. We don't know.
19:43
Maybe that person was just smart.
19:45
>> We can hit the size gong uh for Baron Trump potentially getting the nod to be a board director over Tik Tok.
19:52
>> That's actually pretty sweet.
19:52
And that one makes a lot of sense to me because he's young.
19:55
Tik Tok has a young audience.
19:56
Like you want young blood in these uh in these environments to actually innovate and create good products.
20:02
Uh I'm sort of bullish on that but >> and he earned it right.
20:06
I mean his best he's he's generated billion.
20:13
>> He genuinely understands social media.
20:14
Like a lot of people do ascribe like the Trump podcast run to him and him being like you got to go on Theo Vaughn and Trump being like who's Theo Vaughn and Baron being like trust me like he's good.
20:25
You got to go collab with this streamer.
20:27
like a lot of a lot of social a lot of aggressive social media risks that many politicians wouldn't do beforehand, but Baron actually said, you know, he was going to do it.
20:35
Um, there was something else about the insider trading. Well, yes.
20:39
So, just because two people got the trade right doesn't mean that it's insider trading because on any given day there could be two random people that are just short Bitcoin, you know, like that just does happen.
20:49
Like I bet there's two people right now who are short Bitcoin who are not having a good day because Bitcoin's back up, right?
20:56
And so like there is just like an amount of like you know the lucky like someone gets you know you know double sixes or whatever or whatever the >> every day there's people but but this was uh >> this was suspicious.
21:10
It was suspicious that it was like a new wallet a specific >> two new accounts created and then just massive massive >> and that's only that's the only thing they did. Okay. Yeah. That's >> Yeah.
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And they immediately cashed out and >> Okay. No size gong for them. Oh.
21:22
Uh, speaking of the size gong, are you are you aware of the gong show? >> No. >> So, it's interesting.
21:30
There's been a number of pieces written about TVPN and many of them feature the gong and talk about the gong.
21:36
None of them actually >> main character in the show.
21:39
>> None of them actually talk about the Gong Show, which was a show in the 70s where it was a I think it was like a 30 minute hourlong show or something like that that it was a it was basically like America's Got Talent.
21:52
So, as a talent show, you'd come on, you'd do Are you Are you looking it up?
21:56
>> It's just It's so >> I'm just laughing because it sounds like every startup that gets announced these days, it's like, "Oh, we're making a show. What should we call it?
22:05
>> Oh, I don't have a creative idea.
22:05
We should just call it the Gong Show." >> The Gong Show?
22:08
No, >> we should call it the the Browser Company.
22:11
Browser Company was creative to their >> Yeah, they were the first ones to do that.
22:14
So, but the Gong Show was uh was a talent show and they had a huge huge gong, maybe even bigger than ours.
22:20
And basically, yeah, you can see it.
22:23
Yeah, it's about it's about our size.
22:25
>> Interesting mallet size. >> Huge mallet.
22:26
Yeah, they're they're definitely We need to upgrade the mallet for sure.
22:30
And so the whole the whole trick with the gong show was that they would bring someone on and they'd be like, "Okay, I'm going to play the flute or I'm going to do a dance or I'm going to tell a comedy routine."
22:38
And they had a whole bunch of like celebrity uh like judges and if the judges didn't like the performance, at any moment they could stand up and just hit the gong and that would be like get out of here. Like you're done.
22:50
Uh, and so it's like a game to like not get the gong run as oppo uh rung as opposed to us where you want the gong to be.
22:58
>> Maybe maybe we should. >> But maybe we should.
23:00
>> That's actually >> we have an interviewer any guests on here getting a little boring.
23:03
We're going to hit the gong and production team's going to cut to the next post.
23:08
Uh, maybe that's the the the end state for this show is that we just say get out of here with this boring AI take. Tell us something news.
23:15
Tell us something interesting. >> Negative.
23:17
Bobby says negative gong hits is crazy. >> Negative gong hits. >> You're out of here.
23:23
>> Yeah, you're Well, >> well, >> Privy wallet infrastructure for every bank.
23:27
Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rails, securely spin up white label wallets, sign transactions, and integrate onchain infrastructure all through one simple API.
23:34
>> Um, there is some news out of the Financial Times.
23:38
The Dutch government takes control of Chinese owned chip maker Nexia. >> Okay.
23:44
>> And terminally online engineer says they did it.
23:47
And uh it's it's GE gear to Wilders saying we have an and serious problem. >> Is that a real quote? >> This was a real post.
24:00
>> That was a real post that he made >> about what he referring to.
24:05
We have an in and serious problem refers to a viral post on X in mid January 2024 by Dutch politician Ge Wilders and the the response by English-speaking users who found the similarities between Dutch and English languages entertaining. >> Yeah, of course.
24:23
>> Uh >> what what was the serious problem at that time?
24:25
What what year was it again? >> Uh mid January 2024. >> 2024. What was going on then? I don't know. That's hilarious.
24:32
But this doesn't seem like a serious problem.
24:34
This seems like news for uh like good.
24:35
This seems like good news, right?
24:38
The Dutch government seized seized control of one of Europe's biggest chip makers, which was owned by China and Dutch and the Dutch just say, "Hey, it's ours now. We're nationalizing it."
24:48
I mean, it seems like China should be saying they're having a serious problem because they want to have a chipmaker and now they don't, right?
24:56
That seems like a seems like a rough go for them.
24:58
But I guess next period is Chinese operations will be in in jeopardy because if you just seize a company that's operating in like if America was just all of a sudden like Nvidia is owned by the government, well then that like Nvidia's research lab in uh Shanghai I think uh would probably be not a great place to be.
25:21
>> Yeah, it's also just it sets it can set off a you know a wild uh chain of events.
25:26
So I'll I'll read through some of the financial times piece.
25:28
move escalates frictions between Western countries in Beijing over access to high-end technology.
25:33
We love high technology here.
25:35
Uh the Dutch government has taken taken control of Chinese owned semiceria warning of risks to Europe's economic security after alleging alleging serious government governance shortcomings at the company.
25:49
In a statement on Sunday, the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs said it acted because of a quote threat to the continuity and safeguarding on Dutch and European soil of crucial techn uh technological knowledge and capabilities.
26:05
Uh on Thursday, China placed sweeping restrictions on the exports of rare earths used in products from cars to wind tur turbines.
26:10
The Dutch Ministry said it invoked the country's goods availability act because of quote recent and acute serious governance shortcomings and actions at Nexperia which is based in the Netherlands and has been majority owned by Chinese technology group Wing Tech since 2019.
26:28
The decision aims to prevent a situation in which the goods produced by Nexperia would become unavailable in an emergency.
26:34
That seems >> uh >> serious problem. >> Serious problem.
26:39
Um, I asked Gemini to translate the Gear's original post.
26:43
Uh, it just says, "We have a serious problem with the political developments regarding the Coercion Act, and I hope that can be solved in the coming days." >> Boring. >> Boring.
26:55
>> Well, thank you, Gemini.
26:55
Newest sponsor of TBPN, by the way. Check them out.
27:03
>> Anyways, uh, Nexperia produces chips used in the European automotive industry and consumer electronics.
27:07
So uh anyways, Vincent uh Carammans, the Dutch economy minister can now block a reverse decisions taken by Nexperia's board.
27:15
His department acted on September 30th but only made its move public on October 12th.
27:23
>> Um so again, uh I don't know, right?
27:28
Anytime you just start seizing, uh uh it can it obviously it's going to prevent Chinese companies.
27:34
prevent Chinese companies. seems way more aggressive than the Intel story where what was it 10% stake by the US government something like that like that is and immediately in America we were all debating like is this socialism like have we taken a private company are we
27:50
actually letting the free market work should uh you know the US government be playing kingmaker in the semiconductor industry it was a really like complicated issue and and I and you know I wrestled with it personally and over in uh in the Over in Europe, the Dutch are just like, "We'll take it all, I guess." I don't know. I don't know. >> Yeah.
28:08
Well, they're not I don't think they're they're not seizing the asset.
28:14
They're taking >> like They're not saying, "This is ours now.
28:17
They're taking control over it."
28:19
They they have odd they they have >> WingTech the the owner of Nexperia said that on September 30th the Dutch government had issued an order requiring Nexperia and its global subsidiaries not to make any adjustments to their assets, intellectual property, business operations or personnel for one year.
28:37
>> That seems uh like a big request.
28:37
The following day, three top Nexperia executives with Dutch and German nationalities submitted an emergency request to the Amsterdam Court of Appeal to intervene at the chipmaker.
28:47
The court immediately suspended the powers of chief executive Jang Zhu Jang.
28:55
>> Um, and then they ex suspended him from his position as CEO.
29:02
>> Anyways, >> Europe's been on a tear.
29:03
Uh, you saw the big new >> I just want to know.
29:06
I I it's just it's really I feel like impossible to form a take here without understanding what the catalyst was >> because we know that >> we know that uh nobody steals more trade secrets than China and so there's probably something going on under behind the scenes here that we just don't know about. >> Yeah. Yeah.
29:29
What was the real motivation?
29:30
We'll have to dig into it.
29:33
Um, well, in other European news, Europe's big new big AI spending plan is still only 30% of what Meta just purportedly paid to hire Andrew Tulik.
29:45
Uh, this was news over the weekend.
29:45
Uh, Andrew is the co-founder of Thinking Machines.
29:50
>> Poached >> poached to Meta uh for allegedly three and a half.
29:54
>> Allegedly three and a half.
29:54
The number that kind of leaked was what 1 point something 1. 5.
29:58
>> That was the original number that he turned down.
30:00
>> That was the number he turned down.
30:00
What what do you have on this, Tyler? >> Um, yeah.
30:03
I mean, so so I think it was somewhere in the summer, maybe like July, there was the rumors of he him turning down 1. 5 billion.
30:09
Everyone was like, "Oh my gosh, this is so crazy.
30:11
He must be must be a true believer in thing machines." Yep. >> Um, and then Yeah.
30:15
And then people now people are saying 3.
30:17
5 is the number, but even then that's just like the only thing I I've seen where that number is is just on the timeline. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
30:24
It seems like full full rumor at this point, but >> I saw it in I saw it in group chats.
30:30
You're like, you're like >> at least at least a rumor >> equally unreliable as >> my least reliable friend texted it to me as well based on what he saw on the timeline. >> Um, >> that's funny.
30:44
>> But, uh, yeah, I think I think it's funny Andrew getting the offer for one and a half billion over the summer being like, you know, thank you for the offer.
30:52
I'm really, you know, honored that you have so much faith in me.
30:54
I'm stick, you know, I'm going to stick with my principles.
30:58
I'm going to stick it out with my team.
30:59
I'm going to stay true to the mission.
31:00
We just raised >> uh >> I'm a missionary, not a mercenary.
31:05
>> I'm a missionary, not a mercenary.
31:05
You know, we just raised $2 billion to, >> you know, pursue uh to pursue our vision and uh thank you a lot for the offer and um you know, look forward to hopefully collaborating in the future. Mr.
31:16
Mark Zuckerberg, two months later, Zach's like, "How about three and a half billion?"
31:21
He's like, "Um, let's ride. Let's ride." Yeah.
31:26
>> So anyways, um >> uh Tyler, does uh does this trade deal make you more or less AGI pled?
31:35
>> Uh I mean it so so thinking machines is already like not very AGI pled.
31:38
So maybe it's actually more AGI pilling, right?
31:42
Because Andrew maybe he is super agiilled.
31:44
He's seeing what's going on in Think Machines and saying >> he needs a scale.
31:47
>> This is just not enough. I need more >> scale. He needs more comput.
31:50
>> Maybe maybe it's I think this is more AGI pill.
31:52
He saw the Prometheus plan was like, I want that.
31:56
>> The other thing is like, okay, maybe he just thinks that the bubble is about to pop and he needs to like actually he needs like liquid chairs. Yeah. >> Yeah.
32:05
>> Uh yeah, it's notable the the lesson lesson is everyone has a price.
32:07
It's just >> uh which I think you know the industry's known forever.
32:14
It just turns out that the price is often times >> Yeah.
32:18
In this case, three times higher what most people's price would have been.
32:22
>> Wind surf had a price. They went to Google.
32:24
But of course, the product stayed with Cognition. One of our sponsors.
32:27
Cognition's the makers of Devon.
32:29
Devon is the software AI software engineer.
32:32
Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team.
32:34
We also have Ryan Peterson joining from Flexport. Does he have a price?
32:37
Would he join TBBN full-time for three billion? Would you do it?
32:45
Would you become a Would you become Would you become a >> mercenary >> for three billion?
32:52
>> Three and a half billion.
32:52
You have to go You have to walk out of your office and say, "I'm sorry, everyone.
32:56
I'm becoming a podcaster."
33:00
>> Oh, I think I could join you guys and run for it.
33:01
Sorry, I'm not >> No, no.
33:03
It's a life's work mission.
33:03
You have to be full-time.
33:07
>> The offer is contingent. You wouldn't do it. You'd stick around. That's great. You are true.
33:11
>> You are true uh you are true missionary.
33:14
Uh, give me give me the lore again on your take on missionaries versus mercenaries in the AI wars.
33:18
What what does history teach us about whether you should build an army of missionaries or mercenaries?
33:25
Cuz I feel like some people are going both ways on this. >> Yeah.
33:28
And we were right before you joined, we were we were I I was just joking about uh Andrew Tolk from Thinking Machines over the summer being, you know, I'm just imagining what the what the exchange with Mark was.
33:40
But uh I'm really I'm really honored that you would give me this $1. 5 billion offer.
33:47
You know, it shows massive faith in me, but you know, I'm going to stick with the team, stick with the mission, and like I hope we can find a way to collaborate.
33:53
And then Zuck circles back with three and a half billion.
33:55
And suddenly it's it's like, "All right, I think I think we're in business here."
33:58
I think >> now what was rumored?
34:01
Three and a half billion.
34:02
>> Three and a half billion's the rumor. Yeah. Wild. >> Wow. >> Well, yeah.
34:08
You know, Mchavelli was the one who wrote the most about mercenaries and how useless they are when it comes to actual fighting.
34:15
>> I about this more in the context of Zuck security team than I do in Ton in his AI engine.
34:19
Like when the bullets start flying, are these guys ready to take a, you know, take one or are they going to run away?
34:24
Well, to Andrew's credit, he was at Meta for 11 years.
34:27
>> Yeah, he is just going home. >> He's going home. >> Yeah.
34:31
>> Small small price to bring to bring him home. >> Yeah.
34:35
>> Uh, how was your weekend? >> Great. Great.
34:38
Well, I'm here in Southern California.
34:40
Not unfortunately can't visit you guys. I'm in Palis Veres.
34:44
We're having the Flexport customer conference starts this starts tonight.
34:46
So, been practicing my my big talk tomorrow.
34:49
We're releasing a whole bunch of new technology and uh >> host a whole bunch of customers >> at this point is the you know I imagine like 100% of the flexport team they have to be missionaries not mercenaries at this point because every day you could wake up to a 1,000% tariff on your entire business and if you're a mercenary you're going to jump ship.
35:10
So I imagine the team is kind of buckled down already for this and Friday wasn't actually that crazy even though the market was crazy but what was the playbyplay internal >> Friday morning you said you had just gotten off of 2026 planning with the team and got hit with that.
35:28
>> Thankfully we do agile planning and we replant all the time.
35:30
Uh but yes, we just had a three-day planning session in San Francisco, like 40 of our leaders.
35:36
And then like within hours of wrapping it up and saying goodbye to everybody, Trump announced 100% duties on China.
35:42
So, and the last time he had these duties at this level back in April and May, um we saw volumes from China, the US go down by 60%.
35:52
>> Yeah, that's >> um that lasted for five weeks until they they relaxed the tariffs and then they came roaring back. So, we'll see.
35:56
I mean, Poly Market has it.
35:58
I think we've all learned a little bit. Stay calm.
36:01
Poly market right now has it at at least an hour or two ago had it at um 13% odds of this going through on November 1st. >> Sure.
36:08
>> So the market doesn't and then Trump also kind of signaled on Sunday that hey maybe he's going to ease off a little bit.
36:13
So we're not we're not we're definitely not panicking on it.
36:15
Uh props to the Flexport Customs Engineering team because we have this thing it's called tariffs. flexport. com.
36:20
It's a tariff calculator. Yeah.
36:23
And these guys have to keep it updated.
36:25
And they this administration loves putting out these the news on changes to customs policy on Friday afternoons. Yep.
36:33
>> And these guys have worked so many weekends to keep, you know, speaking of missionaries, they're working nights and weekends on duty, on call on pager duty to uh >> to keep the tariff simulator up to speed with whatever the newest regs are.
36:44
uh from your actual conversation with customers, wh what was the was there any material change to folks business um post liberation day?
36:56
Like I I know personally like several companies that actually took seriously like the mission of reshoring and now they're maybe like six months into building a different facility but it's taking years and but they're like like it it definitely flipped a switch from American dynamism is trendy to like there is a board level mandate to to actually consider reshoring in some way.
37:23
How have your customers perceived it?
37:25
um how are people thinking about moving around the globe generally?
37:33
>> That was definitely true in the first few months but then when tariffs started hitting you know like India tariffs right now >> are as high well the China tariffs went up on Friday but until Friday India tariffs on India were just about the same as on China. >> Sure.
37:46
>> Um so it was sort of you know latam tariffs are pretty low but it's it's unclear if that's like here to stay or just a temporary blip.
37:53
You could see Trump changing that overnight.
37:55
Um, >> so it's hard like supply chain, especially if you're doing your own manufacturing, you're setting up your own plant, that's like a multi-year, four, five year minimum commitment that you're probably making before it pays back and then after that, you know, return on capital would take even longer than that.
38:13
So I think it's the smart I I think the folks you're talking to are probably in some sort of defense industry or something that's like more national security oriented and you're like yeah we need to do this in the United States for your typical company that's making apparel or home goods or other types of products.
38:30
It's just like it's not really there to come back to the US.
38:33
I've met more companies who aren't going to do it as a result of having like the worst case I've seen is a company that makes bicycles in the United States.
38:39
Oh, >> and they've made it so that bicycles are uh duty-free if you import them, but the bike parts are not.
38:47
>> So, these guys can't import parts.
38:47
They have to pay taxes on tariffs on the parts, >> but their competitors just import whole bikes.
38:53
So, they're like, "Hey, we're just going to start producing overseas." >> That's really rough. Yeah.
38:56
It feels like at the end of the day, there's like so many little subniches in the economy.
39:02
Like we there was a story in the Wall Street Journal about uh the maker of Sharpie was successful in like reshoring all of Sharpie manufacturing, but Sharpies are probably not, you know, the target of like one specific tariff.
39:14
And then also >> that's a critical industry for Trump. He's got to sign.
39:20
>> That was a hilarious one. >> That's true.
39:21
The autographs can't get signed. >> Yeah. Um >> has an auto pen. Will it be a Sharpie? Like auto pen. Sharpie. >> Auto pen? What do you mean?
39:29
It's like a machine that does the signature. >> Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
39:34
>> That's how Biden signed all of his bags. >> No way.
39:40
>> Um, so I mean, is is everyone just kind of glued to Truth Social now to to get the latest updates on where this all goes or or are there other kind of like uh folks that are like reading the tea leaves and understanding like is Poly Market the the the definitive data source?
39:57
like how are how are customers actually updating on like how real this is?
40:02
>> I think prediction markets are yeah incredibly valuable for this >> really useful.
40:06
They're pretty thinly traded.
40:07
Like the one I cited only has $146,000 of liquidity.
40:11
>> Yeah, >> it's not really getting used because one customer could make a hedge. >> Sure.
40:15
>> They're it's going to cost them more than that.
40:16
So, >> um but there's they're still signaling that.
40:20
>> Um actually, you know, the best source for us is just going to DC and talking to people.
40:23
I've been going there once a month um going back in a couple weeks and just trying to get intel what's really happening, what's coming down the pipe.
40:30
Um I think more you can build relationship.
40:32
This administration's like, you know, as opposed to terrorism I am as I am, they've been very open door to >> hearing our ideas, listening, they genuinely want to help businesses.
40:42
So they've been like we've been able to go in there and talk to them.
40:45
And um we're we're working on a couple things that we think we can reduce customs fraud.
40:49
Like there's this massive fraud that's happening in customs right now. >> Oh yeah.
40:54
>> Because you >> well you just have this incentive if you're the tariffs go way up now.
40:59
There's an incentive to cheat that wasn't there a couple years ago or even last year.
41:03
>> And the way that you can cheat this is highly illegal. So >> do not do this. Do not do this. >> It's not worth it.
41:09
I I I only have one rule is I'm never going to jail. >> Yeah.
41:13
>> So don't have the rules. >> Simple man. Simple man. >> Yep.
41:17
Um, but so the way that it works and it's very rampant right now is the United States is the only country in the world that allows foreign companies to import goods into the country with no legal entity, no requirement to have a employee or person locally.
41:30
So you can just import stuff into the country as a foreign company and then you just lie on your declarations.
41:38
And our customs CBP has agents in like 60 countries, but they're there for counter narcotics and anti-terrorism stuff.
41:47
They're not there for trade compliance and trade enforcement.
41:51
So they're these companies just cheat and there's like basically no concept >> and if they get caught, they can spin up a new entity at home and just keep doing it.
42:00
So there's zero downside.
42:00
Or maybe the goods get and the the the fraud is somebody is bringing in let's say $3 million worth of goods and they just say it's like oh it's $200,000 something like that, right?
42:13
like that, right? raped by >> and so and so again the the people that are punished through that are actual American companies or anybody doing it the right way that then has to compete with a player in the market who doesn't have the same cost structure as
42:28
them because they're just not paying tariff they're not >> exactly this is why we feel strongly about it and um right now on the Amazon marketplace 60% of the sellers are non-resident importers that's what we call this >> I know because 60% of the time I buy something on Amazon It's garbage. >> Yes. So, um I love Amazon, but that that >> Yes.
42:47
So, um I love Amazon, but that that that is a that is becoming a problem.
42:52
>> That's my personal experience. >> Yeah.
42:54
>> So, um so we're we're we're we're trying to highlight this issue around Washington, and people have been really receptive to the to learn about it and to see how this works and to to some proposed, you know, ways that you might close this loophole.
43:06
Um, so yeah, that and the the way that what's happening where American companies are getting trapped in this is that they're allowing their factories to import the goods for them.
43:18
So instead of them importing it, they're letting the factory import it and and feeling like everyone's their own personal lawyer and saying, "Hey, I didn't know about the fraud. It's not my fault.
43:27
I just bought the goods in the United States, and if they were if the factory didn't pay duties, that's not my problem."
43:32
Well, um, that is not how the law works.
43:35
If if you're if you're paying for your goods at a price less than the duties alone would have been >> then you must have you know you should have known about this and I think a court it's going to be hard to convince a jury.
43:47
So I think that um you'll see some enforcement cases but probably they just need to make it so foreign companies just like every other country in the world you need to have a legal entity in the country in order to import goods. >> Yeah.
43:58
Do you have an idea of the scale of like the sweet spot for the scale of that type of fraud?
44:04
I imagine that you really can't get away with that if you're, you know, doing 10 billion dollars of commerce, but there's probably a whole a whole host of little, you know, $20 million operations that are maybe cheating or something. >> Got pretty big.
44:18
So, I I analyzed that um in in the United States, ocean freight shipping manifests are public record. Oh, sure.
44:24
And so, I analyzed all of them last week uh with with a team member of mine.
44:29
We went through this and what we found was about 10% of um trade has switched terms >> uh to where the factories is now importing the goods is our estimate around 10 11%.
44:42
>> Which is just massive amount of fraud.
44:43
Um and uh and probably going to keep growing and growing until they until they take enforcement. >> Yeah.
44:50
Um >> but is it even impo imp possible to enforce?
44:56
Like how wouldn't you have to like 10x US it has to be a US entity >> with a my proposal and we'll see if this lands somewhere but is like would have to be a US entity with a US bank account >> with a US director that can go to prison if they >> and a US employee who could be held liable. Exactly.
45:13
And then you know like sure you can always break the law but if there's a threat of going to jail you're probably not going to do that most of the time. Most people wouldn't. >> Yeah.
45:21
>> Um and we have a great country because it's much easier to start a business than it is to be a criminal. Yeah. No.
45:27
>> Uh so most of the smart people become entrepreneurs instead of criminals.
45:30
Whereas in other countries that's not true.
45:31
It's easier to be a criminal than to start a business. >> Yeah.
45:34
Can you give us an update on Import Genius?
45:35
We were reading a New York Times article and Import Genius was cited and we were just kind of like whoa.
45:42
Like you know we we we know that uh we we know the founders.
45:44
But uh I'd love to know like like what's the state of the business?
45:49
It seems like you're still finding interesting data from that.
45:52
like how what like what role does Import Genius play in the in the overall like community right now?
46:00
>> Um yeah, so import a data service that takes those public shipping records that I mentioned and makes them searchable and accessible.
46:05
And so that's the data that I was using to figure out look into this fraud web.
46:08
A lot of different journalists use it to find >> that's cool >> what's going on in the world.
46:11
Um they're also kind of finding digging up fraud of some kind.
46:16
Well, that's that there's there's lots of other use cases besides investigating fraud, but that's what tends to get into.
46:24
>> Yeah, I imagine you can just use it to understand like are our volumes falling or rising or what rates are, etc. >> Exactly.
46:30
We use it for market share analysis.
46:32
We use it for lead generation for logistics companies helping to like uses it to >> find companies that we should talk to about their freight.
46:39
Um, and people use it for factories like to find you're looking to do research on a factory, kind of see what their shipping history is. >> Yeah.
46:47
Uh, overall, I mean, maybe to close out.
46:50
Um, I'd love to know just kind of like there's obviously a lot of volatility with the tariff and the and the overall trade war.
46:57
I don't even like it's just been such a like a low rumble for the last years for the last year for this entire administration.
47:05
I'm sure it's been a lot louder in your world, but uh does it feel like we're closer to having resolution?
47:11
Like when we talked, we talked last time I was like I was like I think the business community and I think you agreed with me.
47:17
The business community just wants something to stick a deal if it's 50% forever.
47:21
We can build our models off of that.
47:25
We can invest against that.
47:27
But uncertainty is particularly destabilizing to the US economy, to global trade, etc.
47:31
Whatever it lands at, let's just get there now.
47:35
Does it feel like we're closer than ever or getting farther away?
47:38
Like how do you feel about just like the level of volatility in global trade?
47:45
It it started to feel like things were calming down until really I think Trump the administration going after India is what kind of set off to be like oh okay maybe these aren't as stable as if like >> a negotiation can just quickly spiral on a country like that that >> in a lot of ways we have a lot in common with India and should be an ally of ours.
48:05
Um the China this current level on China is definitely at a our our view is anything above about 60% duty is going to be an embargo level where almost all trade stops.
48:18
Um and we're so we're well above that right now.
48:22
>> Um I don't think that that's where the administration wants this to land.
48:25
I think they'd they'd probably like it to be a little bit below the embargo level and give them uh a ratchet make it a ratchet where they can put it above the embargo level on a moment's notice with uh when when they don't do what they want.
48:42
Um the I I I wish we could say we had the long-term stability.
48:47
Like if the current rates on Latin America lasted, it would be really kind of very clear for folks of what policy the administration is putting forward is, >> hey, we're going to treat the southern South America, Latin America as kind of our backyard, our hemispheric partners.
49:04
We're going to encourage kind of manufacturing there for stuff that doesn't make sense in the United States.
49:10
I think it's very hard for them to come out and say that overtly because they were like the actual message is no make it in America. >> Yep.
49:16
>> Um in the in the United States of America, not America.
49:22
>> Um what is uh what's the latest on with the ports automation at the ports? >> Oh, it's illegal. That's the latest. No, it's not illegal.
49:33
it's not illegal. It's against the contract of the union for the next u I think five more years from now on the west on the east coast and four more years on the west coast I want to say >> and our direct competitors are doing the same thing right
49:48
>> uh say that again the other world >> and and and I'm sure the rest of the world is also banning automation right so we'll so we'll be equally competitive >> and of course it's like no Singapore is probably extremely automated right >> contract ends in like four or five years. Um, Um, >> and we'll see.
50:04
But in the meantime, there will be no automation in the US ports. >> Yeah. So, we're behind.
50:08
Uh, makes it even harder.
50:11
>> We've got, by the way, here in LA, um, the Long Beach Container Terminal is an automated terminal.
50:16
I think that's what kind of kicked off the union and and pissed them off and made them realize this is like a real thing when they put it in about 10 years ago.
50:25
>> Um, it's it's really impressive.
50:25
like it's a giant robot that's like a square mile of all autonomous trucks driving around and there's no people in there. >> Yeah.
50:36
>> And so that we do have the it's like a solve problem. The technology exists. It works.
50:40
It's like really efficient.
50:40
Um really cool to look at.
50:43
Highly encourage doing a tour of that. >> Be cool.
50:47
>> Flexport's gonna take a bunch of our customers on a tour of that at our conference here in a couple days. Yeah.
50:52
>> Are there any other like geological or geographic uh areas in the US that could be ports, could be automated ports but don't have any port infrastructure or and are just like ah it's some houses or something we could buy or it's just like kind of an abandoned beach.
51:10
>> It it you can't because um the union claims every inch of American soil. Okay.
51:14
>> Of every inch of American coastline.
51:14
So even if today they're not there, they they still claim >> spirit. Okay. >> Yes. and they will show up. So, you can't do it.
51:22
The thing that No, one area I'd really love to see America take advantage of is our river network.
51:29
>> And and like actually this points to like if Latin America were to become a much bigger trading partner for us, then you would predict that the New Orleans should be the biggest port in the United States. >> Oh yeah.
51:38
If you have the whole Mississippi River network and you can get everywhere all the way connecting up to the Great Lakes up to Canada, like you could really make an amazing but there's almost no container shipping on that network in part because of union contracts and like >> a flexport a flexport river but boat would go really hard.
51:57
Maybe you could put a casino on it too to make you know make it really American >> 100%.
52:03
I really think like a sparge network running all over and and like replace a lot of the trucks on the road too because it's so much more efficient, cheaper, greener, like >> cooler um in so many ways.
52:15
And yeah, I I haven't looked into the gambling laws, but in in international waters, you can of course.
52:22
So, you know, you just gamble down the Amazon, then gamble all through the Caribbean, and then gamble up the Mississippi. It's the future.
52:34
Anyway, thanks so much for stopping by. >> New product line. >> Congratulations. >> This is great.
52:38
I got I got to ideate with you guys more.
52:41
I think we'll probably come up with some good product ideas for uh >> I think I think a caretsu of gambling and shipping is just a perfect >> mystery boxes.
52:50
Yeah, >> everyone's acting, everyone's asking what's the flexport second act and I think it's >> I would like to do something in futures actually where you could hedge the price of shipping and you know maybe that's a partnership with us in one of these prediction markets would be pretty cool.
53:07
>> Yeah, that'd make a ton of sense. >> Needs to happen. >> Yeah.
53:10
I mean, isn't that the story of uh Southwest?
53:12
They bought a bunch of fuel futures and then they were like had the ability they had pricing power for like a number of years.
53:18
I don't know how apocryphal that story is. Yeah.
53:21
Yeah, I think I read about that.
53:23
Um, we haven't done any hedging yet.
53:23
I'm always telling our finance team to do it and then they come back with reasons why you don't need to or something, but it seems like we should. >> Yeah, it' be fun. Turn into a hedge fund. Be good.
53:34
>> If you can't today, there's not really like a futures.
53:37
There's a couple of these marketplace are trying to form like futures on actual price of ship container shipping.
53:42
Those don't exist yet in a way that's really >> viable.
53:47
But if that existed, we would for sure start I would like to when we should be the smartest people in the market, right?
53:52
Like >> yeah some point you're like we doing all this >> commodity shipping so we should just trade shipping.
54:00
>> Maybe maybe >> well when you announce it uh come back and tell us all about it and good luck with the customer conference.
54:05
Thanks so much for stopping by.
54:08
>> We'll talk to you soon. >> See you. >> See you. >> See you guys.
54:12
>> Let me talk about Figma.
54:12
Think bigger, build faster.
54:14
Figma helps design and development teams build great products together.
54:16
You can get started for free.
54:19
Uh >> Jeremy Gon asking the important question.
54:21
Why hasn't someone done calendar invites for phone numbers?
54:23
It's the last thing keeping email in the loop. Totally agree.
54:27
Such gets gets to such an awkward spot in a you know in a meeting where you're you're going back and forth over text and then have to >> and then uh okay, who's going to who's going to bite the bullet?
54:40
>> If Apple wants to really dominate an iMessage world, they should like they should figure out how to add that to the iMessage flywheel.
54:47
So, like you're even more locked in because your iCloud account is the one.
54:50
I mean, I guess they do that with uh with the calendar app, but everyone's kind of on Gmail, so >> it's a little bit rough. >> Would be fun.
54:58
Steve Jobs Tasting Cars, by the way.
55:00
Everyone's having fun with the uh Steve Jobs, by the way.
55:04
>> Black on tan is >> very good.
55:08
>> And of course, I think we've talked about it on the show before, but he would buy a new car every six months, so he never had to register the plate.
55:13
Uh, that's >> He should have gotten a custom plate.
55:17
He should have gotten an apple on the plate, you know. Just let everyone know.
55:22
>> Just let everyone know. >> There you go.
55:23
What's wrong with getting a custom plate?
55:26
>> Shout out license to post on Instagram.
55:28
Uh, >> um, so there was some interesting alpha coming out of AlphaSense. >> Oh, yeah.
55:34
>> Uh, Richard Jark shared a screenshot of it. >> Okay. >> Um, he summarizes it.
55:39
uh an interview with a former OpenAI employee that came over the weekend confiring confirming my hunch which I already wrote about in the article last week that the biggest friction between OpenAI and Microsoft is around infrastructure capacity.
55:50
OpenAI requests were quote leading to massive amounts of capex potential that Microsoft would be on the hook for. >> Yep.
56:00
>> Uh Sam basically saying to Satia, spend spend a trillion dollars for me.
56:05
>> I want to be the leaser.
56:05
And Satcha's like I want to be the leaser.
56:07
And everyone's like, we want a lease.
56:08
We don't want to we don't want to.
56:12
>> Two, Microsoft is getting a is getting a request from its biggest customer investment that they want an almost inexhaustible amount of GPUs.
56:17
That's fine in terms of predicting your demand for a one-year period from today.
56:21
Say, but what about in the year 2029 when you end up having all of this capacity that you've constructed?
56:28
What does that market look like? No one really knows.
56:33
That led to some friction between OpenAI and Microsoft.
56:36
Uh Richard says, "My take on this is that Microsoft is being smart and letting others take the risk.
56:40
Oracle and Neoclouds as numbers for capex are reaching crazy numbers.
56:44
When things come back to earth and many of these firms face difficulties, Microsoft is left standing to pick up the distressed assets." >> Tyler has a take. What you got?
56:54
>> Um yeah, I mean this is kind of what Doug Laughlin was saying.
56:56
He was saying that Microsoft super early on they were like super bullish, right?
57:00
They're in OpenAI early on and then they kind of take a step back.
57:03
I think he was saying that, oh, they're going to get back in the game. Yep.
57:07
>> So, hopefully, you know, hopefully we get the the the gigawatt set up by by 2027, then we'll have, you know, AGI god.
57:14
>> Yeah, it does seem like Satcha's doubling down on getting back in the live player AI race.
57:18
He kind of delegated a couple tasks Microsoft for business to someone else in the Microsoft leadership team so he's able to spend more time on AI.
57:26
The question is, is he still happy to be a leaser? That could be true.
57:31
he could say, "Yeah, I want to I want to lease even more from someone else and do a whole bunch of offbalance sheet debt."
57:36
Essentially, uh there's a there's a crazy post from uh September 24th.
57:41
Uh Sebastian Rashka, this is way deeper in the deck.
57:46
I don't know if you're going to be able to find it.
57:48
It's on page 94, but uh Sebastian says, "No one understood me back then."
57:52
And Nick, who is a famous OpenAI hater, uh, shares a screenshot of the information reporting on OpenAI's mega deal with Nvidia and says, uh, OpenAI would lease NVIDIA chips instead of owning them.
58:07
And so Nick says, "News, OpenAI to lease NVIDIA chips rather than buying them.
58:11
LMAO, like they don't even have the money to actually buy them."
58:15
And back then in September 24th of 2025, Sebastian said, "Actually, I think that's smart.
58:21
This way you don't have to deal with reselling and recycling old chips every few years.
58:25
Nvidia chips should be offered as a subscription."
58:31
And so, uh, you were talking to Dylan Patel about this.
58:32
You were saying like, "What is the value of an A100?
58:34
What is the value of an H100 in five years?
58:37
Will you still be able to produce economic value?"
58:43
Yeah, it's still going to be in able to inference llama 3.
58:46
>> It might it might turn on, but that doesn't mean it'll be economically >> rational to leverage. >> Yeah.
58:52
>> Yeah. And and and my my take is that is that uh and what I've been digging around when we talk to people like we talked to Kareem at at RAMP about this like there are companies that have found useful uh like economically valuable uses for Llama 3 just somewhere in their software stack like you know with with
59:11
the the ramp example which of course is sponsor but it's a good example is just like you scan a receipt you need to understand like what category is this expense in and you can just take the name of the restaurant and what's on the line items, put it in llama 3 and very cheaply get back like what category is it. It's like a classic just like text
59:28
It's like a classic just like text interpretation transformation problem. Easy.
59:33
>> We were working on that internal tool for horse identification. >> Yes. Yes. Exactly.
59:37
But like once you develop that >> my horse my horse uh I got to tell the story about uh my my quiz for you in a minute.
59:47
Uh but once you develop a tool that has like economic value inside your organization, you're very likely to just leave that there like your database, you know, like okay, yeah, we have a database, we have a cron job that runs every night that, you know, cleans up the database, tags some data, moves some stuff around, creates some summary analytics.
1:00:03
Let's just let that run forever.
1:00:05
And yeah, it costs us a thousand bucks a day or something.
1:00:07
And I think that will be the case for a lot of those like GPT 3.
1:00:11
5 class workloads, GPT4 class workloads.
1:00:14
So, I don't know how bad it will be to just own a whole bunch of old compute, but uh it's certainly it's certainly risky because you could get caught and the value of those could go to basically zero and that would be really bad.
1:00:28
And so, uh it is it is funny to see uh you know the question about like will Microsoft actually go and buy a bunch of stuff like what is getting back in the game really mean?
1:00:36
Yeah, I mean what it what it looks like right now is Satia watching a bunch of different players lever up massively while he sits back and is risk off.
1:00:49
>> But you can imagine again we've talked about this a number of times a point.
1:00:52
It could be a year from now.
1:00:54
It could be six months from now.
1:00:56
It could be >> two years from now, three years from now.
1:00:59
It's really hard to say where he comes in and gets very aggressive on buying up all these distressed assets that have >> done all the hard work but got over levered and don't have the demand to >> you know uh not be in breach of various covenants. >> Yeah.
1:01:14
If the bubble just keeps inflating or you know things kind of all pencil out like people hope. >> Yeah.
1:01:19
That's that's really the the tinfoil hat theory is Trump just wanted to take some of the heat off the AI bubble so he announced a new trade war.
1:01:27
>> Told you bubbles bubbles over.
1:01:27
Um, we got the first ever message in the LinkedIn stream.
1:01:32
For those that don't know, we do stream on LinkedIn.
1:01:34
Uh, LinkedIn doesn't invest very much, but uh, Sham Mohight in the LinkedIn chat, can you tell the deployment percentage security to subscribe dot dot dot?
1:01:47
>> I don't know what that means, but I like that you're engaging in LinkedIn, holding it down.
1:01:53
>> Hopefully New York Times.
1:01:53
uh New York Times called us Sports Center for LinkedIn >> and here we are. >> Here you are. You're the first >> Yes. >> chat room general. Thank you.
1:02:05
>> So on the on the question of uh uh on the question of AGI timelines and is this a bubble?
1:02:10
Um we uh over the weekend you got a new phone and uh even though AGI is just a few thousand days away uh it completely depending on >> it completely destroyed your iMessage integration and so I on Saturday at noon I get uh I get a message from your email not your iMessage account because I have your iMessage pinned with your with your contact information.
1:02:36
It was a pretty serious >> Yeah.
1:02:38
It's just perfect, you know, blah blah blah this other thing. What do you think?
1:02:42
You know, I I I you know, you weren't exactly asking me to wire money anywhere, but it was a serious question.
1:02:49
>> It was a It was a million-dollar question.
1:02:51
>> It was a million-dollar question.
1:02:51
And so, so I'm like, so I screenshot it, send it back to you, and I say, "This is coming from an email, so I have to do a check of humanity, something only Jordy could know.
1:03:00
What is my dream dress horse?"
1:03:03
because that's something only you could know until you've listened to this episode.
1:03:07
this episode. Now you will know and you >> and I botched and >> well yeah you quote the Jordy that I was talking to says Danish warm blood of course next question I said wrong it's a liponer dancing horse of course and you
1:03:21
said I knew I was forgetting the lipison and I said sure sure likely story and >> and so then you had to you had to you said pull up worldcoin >> yep yeah yeah yeah I switched to I switched phones needed to deactivate the other liquid glass is pretty mid and I the likely story. Uh feels uh feels like
1:03:37
Uh feels uh feels like a downgrade all around.
1:03:41
>> Wait, before we do that, Mark and Michael Mirllor have jumped into the LinkedIn. >> Let's go. Welcome. >> Love to see it. Holding it down.
1:03:47
All right, Mark's already back. >> Mark, let's go.
1:03:52
>> It was fun while it lasted. >> Amazing. Could have been me. >> LinkedIn Mazuma.
1:03:58
>> Anyway, if you want to stay compliant, >> go to Vanta. Automate compliance. Manage risk.
1:04:02
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1:04:10
>> Uh so as you know I ordered my new iPhone weeks before you strolled into the iPhone into the Apple store and just bought one off the shelf.
1:04:18
>> I wasn't even there for a phone.
1:04:19
>> So I was I was forced to wait.
1:04:19
The anticipation was building.
1:04:22
I had high hopes for the new phone.
1:04:25
Uh the second I started using it, I I I thought this feels like a downgrade in every single way except the uh the actual quality of the images. The cameras are great.
1:04:40
>> Everything else from the way that it feels, it feels cheap in comparison to my titanium iPhone.
1:04:44
Uh the liquid glass, while I think it looks cool, >> uh it is uh very mid in practice. >> Yep.
1:04:56
It's uh everywhere you go. Everywhere you go.
1:04:59
It feels like overly everything's overly animated. >> Sure.
1:05:03
>> And I'm already getting a lag on the animation, which is like why >> like why?
1:05:08
I don't I don't need it to animate.
1:05:10
Just like be smooth and instant. Yeah. >> And don't lag.
1:05:16
>> Um >> I have a couple takes on Liquid Glass. I can drop.
1:05:19
We can also get Tyler's review. What What was it like?
1:05:24
What was it like upgrading from the very first iPhone to to a modern iPhone?
1:05:26
Uh, are you enjoying the 3G?
1:05:30
You were on the 2G iPhone, right?
1:05:32
The one you actually had to plug it in to the wall to talk to people.
1:05:37
Uh, you you you've you've fully acclimated to liquid glass, right? You have any problems?
1:05:42
>> Yeah, I think it's great.
1:05:44
>> I mean, it's definitely it's it's So, here's my issue.
1:05:46
>> They'll get used to it.
1:05:47
>> They thought to themselves, >> we don't need to make a better user experience.
1:05:53
We just need to make a different one.
1:05:56
>> Be noticeably different because it's not better. >> Yep.
1:05:59
>> Nothing about it from using it for a few days have I thought, oh, this is a lot better than how it used to be. >> Yeah.
1:06:06
I I think most of my experience that's like, oh, this is like so much better is is probably mostly because I was going from an iPhone 11, which is like 7 years old, >> to this.
1:06:14
It's It's probably not actually the iOS.
1:06:17
>> Um, but so I mean I it feels way faster obviously, but it's hard to tell.
1:06:20
Uh, LinkedIn chat is absolutely going off.
1:06:24
Mark, >> Ryan, >> Ryan, thank you to everyone supporting us on LinkedIn.
1:06:27
We are bringing >> news to LinkedIn for the first time ever. We're on a tear. Uh, Apple first.
1:06:36
They got to get on graphite code review for the age of AI.
1:06:37
Graphite helps teams at GitHub ship higher quality software faster.
1:06:40
Okay, so couple problems for me.
1:06:43
Uh, the Safari uh with Liquid Glass feels like way harder to use.
1:06:46
It's like I don't know how to get to the actual tab view.
1:06:50
There's a whole bunch of new muscle memory. Just opening a new tab.
1:06:52
I feel like I have to click twice.
1:06:54
And >> I read, okay, you added more animations, but it's not better.
1:07:01
>> It does feel like there's a few things that now require two clicks or three clicks that used to just require one click or two clicks.
1:07:06
And so that's been annoying.
1:07:08
I'm sure I'll develop the muscle memory.
1:07:10
The new phone app feels very difficult for me to use.
1:07:12
I I haven't been able to figure out like where all the different uh calls are.
1:07:18
All these things I think we'll sort out.
1:07:20
Uh I haven't enjoyed how hard it is to take a screenshot of a an iMessage chat because the person's name appears in glass.
1:07:28
And so if you're trying to line it up to screenshot just like one message and show the person's name to say like, "Hey, Jordy texted me this and I'm sending that to Tyler.
1:07:37
Um Jordy said this funny thing, you know, here."
1:07:40
Well, like I'm automatically gonna see through the glass like the last thing he said that could be something different that I don't necessarily want to share.
1:07:48
And so just the screenshots of iMes have been a little bit tricky for me to get around.
1:07:53
>> I will say liquid glass looks cool.
1:07:57
>> It does look cool, >> but it's worse to use.
1:08:00
>> Y >> and that makes it bad design.
1:08:04
>> I think I'll get used to it.
1:08:04
Oh, the other thing on the on the actual hardware design is I noticed that uh the plateau uh just completely ruins the ability to use wireless chargers because you put it down on the wireless charger.
1:08:17
>> You have an update to the new wireless. I know. So, I need a new car. Great. Thanks.
1:08:22
>> Um Nick says, "Most people I know gain like 20 IQ when advising their friends lives and lose 20 IQ when doing strategy for their own lives."
1:08:32
>> Run says, "Why is this?
1:08:32
It makes absolutely no sense, but it's true.
1:08:34
Guy says solution, befriend yourself. That's very funny.
1:08:43
>> This is totally This is This This is uh It's usually that it's very easy to give simple advice to your friends.
1:08:53
And when you're trying to strategize in your own life, you end up making it super complicated because you have all this >> you have so you have max the most information on your life more information on your life than anyone else.
1:09:06
You're like trying to do one of the Tyler red string boards and uh usually it's just a lot more >> simple. >> Yeah. No, I agree.
1:09:15
And you're sort of forced to make things simple when you're giving advice to a friend because you know, >> okay, here's their home life, here's their work life, here's what you should do.
1:09:24
>> Here's a life hack for uh doing strategy for your own life.
1:09:27
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1:09:29
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1:09:35
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1:09:42
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1:09:48
ai and querying >> running analysis.
1:09:51
>> Running analysis on it.
1:09:51
What should I have the croissant or the breakfast burrito? Julius, >> why not both?
1:09:58
>> It's your personal Jarvis. >> Julius.
1:10:00
Julius, should I go to bed at 9 or 10?
1:10:03
Julius, should I have a second Diet Coke today?
1:10:06
>> They really should give the They really should give the Siri button to Julius.
1:10:09
Yeah, we've been saying, "Oh, they'll do a deal with anthropic.
1:10:10
They'll do a deal with perplexity.
1:10:12
Apple, Tim Cook, do a deal with Julius. ai." You got to do it.
1:10:18
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1:10:20
Um, can we uh Kylie Jenner is working to make Snapchat a thing again according to according to Jasmine.
1:10:29
What's going on with Snapchat? Yes. What did she do? >> Yeah.
1:10:34
So, I I don't know exactly what it's she's working on.
1:10:36
I don't think she It's been announced yet, but >> but it said tomorrow on October 11th it said tomorrow on Snapchat. So >> Okay.
1:10:43
>> Yesterday you said tomorrow. Just do it. >> Just do it.
1:10:49
>> So we do know some uh retail retail traders are very long Snapchat.
1:10:52
So maybe I should consult with them.
1:10:57
>> Although I I don't know if these particular traders are the most uh you know up to date on on latest news.
1:11:00
But >> I mean this did this move the market like we need to check in with our resident retail trader on the Snapchat price. Uh I mean I don't know.
1:11:07
I' I've heard I've heard a number of people for a long time when I was doing YouTube videos they would pitch me on like you got to do a Snapchat version because in the uh what was it in like 2022 2023 uh Snapchat was very kind of liberal with their version of Tik Tok's creator fund.
1:11:25
And so if you were getting a lot of views on Snapchat you could be making a ton of money.
1:11:27
I I think you have a buddy who was making who took a there were a couple YouTubers who took their content, made it Snapchat native and then got big creator payouts basically like higher CPMs just because Snapchat was like we want to bootstrap like the real serious creator market not just you know Snapchat with your friends. >> Yeah.
1:11:45
I think they distributed probably hundreds of millions of dollars. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:11:49
To get like real shows to get like Mr. Beast level shows. Uh Tyler, what you got?
1:11:53
Uh so it seems that um she was uh announcing a new music video. Okay.
1:11:58
>> That was launching on Snapchat.
1:11:58
I I guess she has been off Snapchat for some time and is returning. >> She does music. Interesting. I didn't know that.
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1:12:18
Did you see that Red Bull put Yuki Cenoda in a bucket of water next to a high voltage power outlet?
1:12:24
>> No, I had no idea that.
1:12:24
I didn't understand this image at all. What? Why?
1:12:28
Why is this >> I think he's doing a cold plunge. >> Okay.
1:12:31
And it just happens to be like this. >> Right.
1:12:33
>> Red Bull is the type of team to >> That is absolutely electric. >> That is awesome. Get after it. >> Yeah. Risk on.
1:12:40
>> Should we Should we run through uh my >> Wait, I had a question for you.
1:12:42
So So I I watched a film over the weekend. >> What? The third film ever.
1:12:52
>> I watched the film Cophile. Third film ever. Congratulations. >> I saw >> Yes.
1:13:01
>> Uh Brad Pitt play Sunny Hayes in uh in the movie F1. >> Yes, F1.
1:13:06
>> I watched it in two parts. >> Okay.
1:13:08
>> Because >> as the filmmaker intended.
1:13:09
filmmaker intended because he knew he knew I would get sleepy and check how much time was left in the movie.
1:13:17
I was like, "This is a movie about racing cars around a track. Can't be that long.
1:13:21
Oh, you got another hour and 30 minute left. I'm going to bed."
1:13:26
But the thing that I thought was interesting as somebody who's seen I haven't seen two hands worth of films, but I've seen a a few. Yeah.
1:13:34
>> Uh, interesting to have uh a a fictional story tied into current reality in F1.
1:13:42
Have you seen a movie that that's done exactly that, right?
1:13:48
Where there's like Lewis Hamilton and other characters like blended in. >> Yes.
1:13:52
>> To >> It's rare, but super rare. Yeah.
1:13:55
>> But they pulled it off well. >> Yeah.
1:13:57
>> It felt like you were in the world.
1:13:57
It felt like you were in modernday Formula 1. Yeah. >> And just watching.
1:14:04
>> I mean, in the Big Short, they're like in Lehman Brothers, right? In Goldman Sachs. That's my version of F1. >> Yeah.
1:14:10
But not with like the actual people.
1:14:12
It's not like the managing director at Lehman Brothers is like playing himself.
1:14:17
>> Sometimes there's little cameos, but nowhere near as much as like this.
1:14:21
>> There was like 200 cameos basically. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:14:23
No, that that was a very cool uh very cool feature of the film. Yeah, I did enjoy F1.
1:14:27
It was it was it was a good movie.
1:14:29
Maybe the movie of the summer.
1:14:30
People were asking like what is the movie of the year?
1:14:32
Uh like there was no Shelling Point.
1:14:34
There was no Barbenheimer this year and I think F1 probably did the best.
1:14:39
The the real the real one that's like going viral is the K-pop Demon Hunters movie on Netflix.
1:14:45
That's the one that's like getting the most attention.
1:14:46
Like Squid Game level, but u little less >> never heard of it.
1:14:50
>> You've never heard of K-pop Demon Hunters?
1:14:53
>> You're telling me this for the first time? >> Are you kidding?
1:14:54
Actually, >> you've never heard of K-pop Demon Hunters? It's crazy.
1:14:56
It is like a massive viral succession.
1:14:59
Uh uh it's a massive viral success.
1:15:02
Uh let me run through let me run through my pitch to the US government to give Dylan Patel at semi analysis 50 million bucks.
1:15:08
Uh this was my take today.
1:15:11
So uh we had Dylan Patel on the show on Friday talking about inference max.
1:15:15
This is an independent benchmark where he takes Nvidia news. Yeah. >> Pull up this video. >> Oh yeah. >> From semi analysis.
1:15:24
>> This is why I had to talk about it.
1:15:26
>> Semi analysis potentially the greatest. It's amazing.
1:15:30
>> Good post of all time.
1:15:30
They say was watching the Georgia game and noticed Warashesh Patel. >> There we go. >> There we go.
1:15:35
Literally on TV soundboard. This is good.
1:15:40
>> A lot of people were saying >> it's just so funny.
1:15:43
He's he's like in Tennessee Friday calling into TVPN with the most unhinged setup we've ever had for our guest. >> It was great.
1:15:52
>> And then he pops up here at uh of course this is not Dark Cash.
1:15:56
Have you been living under a data center?
1:15:57
He Yeah, he's talking big game.
1:15:59
Oh, I'm out here because there's a lot of power.
1:16:00
He's like, "Power on the field.
1:16:01
Let's go Bulldogs, apparently."
1:16:04
No, obviously he's there for work as well.
1:16:07
Um, but it is it is an amazing amazing clip.
1:16:11
>> Is his is his buddy like throwing like waving money around >> something? I don't know. Yeah. What is going on? >> They're GPU rich. >> They are rich. That's amazing.
1:16:19
Um, I'm so glad you got >> Okay, get into your get into your rant.
1:16:23
So basically uh Dylan Patel uh one of the greatest analysts of all time the goats um uh he launched inference max last week.
1:16:31
It's this website that you can go to and you can select one of three open source models llama 3 uh deepseek and uh and GPT OSS.
1:16:37
Then you can select what type of workload do you want to do.
1:16:44
Do you want to do document summarization?
1:16:45
Put 8,000 tokens in get 1,000 out.
1:16:48
Do you want to do just chat back and forth?
1:16:50
or do you want to do more of a reasoning deep research type project?
1:16:54
Uh and then you can say what what architecture do you want to use?
1:16:58
What's the whole software stack?
1:16:58
And then what what GPUs do you want to run it on?
1:17:01
Do you want to run it on Nvidia or AMD?
1:17:03
And so you get all these different charts.
1:17:05
It's it's uh put the timeline in turmoil more than one time already.
1:17:09
Um and uh and it's been really interesting because my take and I'm interested Jordy if you if you have a similar take like it has two things have felt true.
1:17:18
One is that a Nvidia has just been running away with it and AMD has been playing catch-up for years.
1:17:22
And what Inference Max shows, at least me, is that AMD is actually better in certain areas.
1:17:31
And that was kind of interesting because I'd heard the story of like AMD is getting their stuff together. They're fixing bugs.
1:17:36
George Hotz is pressuring them.
1:17:38
Lisa Sue is talking to George Hotz and Dylan Patel about what to do.
1:17:42
And so the narrative of like Nvidia is 100% dominant and they no one can touch them that kind of breaks when you look at the inference max and in fact seems like AMD is doing great stuff in multiple places and for certain workloads you'd want to pick uh AMD on a total cost to own basis.
1:17:57
Um it's not just about like raw speed all the time.
1:18:02
It's about how much does it cost, how much energy does it use to produce a set amount of tokens. Right. >> Yeah.
1:18:07
And it and it uh it makes it even more surprising that they had to give away so much of their company in order to get Open AI to be >> That's a good point, >> you know, or or Sam just exerted max leverage and just wanted to own >> Yep. >> 10% of AMD. >> Yeah.
1:18:23
I mean, my my update from Inference Max is that AMD and Nvidia are not as far away as people thought.
1:18:27
Um but I mean we'll have to dig into it and obviously it depends on a lot of different factors and uh the true frontier models are a different thing and those aren't in the benchmark because they're not open source.
1:18:38
Uh the other the other uh like kind of update for me was around um was around open source.
1:18:46
source. So I we we covered this and we talked about this with Dylan like when GPTOSS the open- source model from OpenAI launched it was kind of like well okay like yeah it's like you know doing okay on benchmarks nothing really special going on there and it just kind of like fizzled out and it was like yeah it's cool people were excited about it
1:19:06
but like the general tenor wasn't like oh DeepSync's destroyed um but on inference max you can see that GPOSS is performing like right at the same level above on some above below on others And so uh it feels like in terms of the like commoditization of the open source software, open source LLM market like OpenAI has very much caught up and is not like well behind uh DeepSeek. And so
1:19:26
And so that was kind of an interesting update.
1:19:30
I feel like this data we're going to get more interesting data points from this.
1:19:33
we're going to get more uh just a better understanding of like not just how things do on benchmarks like how smart the models are but actually like if you're doing a big workload with them like which one is more affordable right so that was kind of interesting um but notably absent so it's just AMD and Nvidia right now and when we talked to
1:19:54
Dylan he said we're bringing on tranium from Amazon and we're bringing on TPU from Google they are bigger companies and they're moving a little bit slower and they're not selling a ton of these things yet AMD and Nvidia sell a lot more chips and so um TPU and tranium will come in the next couple months but we're working with them. Um but notably
1:20:10
Um but notably absent was Huawei which we've been tracking and we've heard that you know >> Huawei is not my friend.
1:20:18
>> Huawei has this cloud matrix 384 that competes with Nvidia's NVL72 the rack scale compute and the the highle number is that Nvidia at rack scale is 2.
1:20:26
5 times more energy efficient.
1:20:29
So the whole pitch with the cloud matrix 384 was that it can do the same stuff as Nvidia like it can gen it can run the same models. Yeah.
1:20:41
>> And it's like we got it.
1:20:42
>> The problem is we're going into an era where energy is going to be the primary bottleneck.
1:20:46
And so there's not a lot of incentive to run totally chip rack, you know, racks that are that are inefficient.
1:20:53
>> And also like being 60% less efficient is wildly different than being 10% less efficient, right?
1:20:58
like these are really really important.
1:21:00
China would say, "Oh, well, we have all this we have three gorgeous dam like we have plenty of cheap energy."
1:21:04
It's like for a while and then eventually you got to build a hundred nuclear reactors, not just 10.
1:21:09
And so I want I want Huawei to be on Inference Max.
1:21:12
I don't think Nvidia is going to pay for that because they don't want to have, you know, Huawei chips in there.
1:21:17
Might they might be hard to buy.
1:21:18
I don't even know how you buy Huawei chips in America.
1:21:20
But I think the US government could get it done.
1:21:22
And so I'm calling on David Saxs to put up the money.
1:21:26
I don't know if they actually would have to pay this much.
1:21:27
Uh Dylan said something like $50 million came together across Nvidia and all their partners to pay for this. It was a lot of chips.
1:21:33
And so I'd love to see uh America foot the bill, the American taxpayer foot the bill to get some Huawei chips, give them to semi analysis, get them running on inference max so we can know the true gap in compute power.
1:21:44
And this is important because we know the gap in rare earths like America uh China refineses or China mines six times as much rare earth ele as as many rare earth elements as the United States.
1:21:57
They refine those almost 99% of the rare earths in the world and they produce about 85 to 90% of the world's rare earth magnets.
1:22:05
And so the gap in rare earth is massive.
1:22:07
Now, we know that America's head ahead in AI compute and GPU manufacturing, but we just don't know how big that gap is really.
1:22:18
And I feel like that's a really important uh, you know, negotiating point and point of negotiating leverage in the trade war.
1:22:23
And putting Huawei on inference max would help us understand the nature of that gap and how big it is and how much leverage we actually have.
1:22:33
So, who knows where the money will come from, but I'd love to see Huawei on Inference Max.
1:22:37
And, uh, >> you know, if you want to learn more about it, go over to Semi analysis and check it out.
1:22:42
>> Anyway, Patrick Oshanosy and the team at Colossus have uh a new looks like a cover story with uh none other than friend of the show Josh Kushner dropping tomorrow.
1:22:54
Yeah, we should hopefully read through it >> for sure.
1:22:59
Uh, Michael Spiker says, "Real men lose their shirts in natural gas, not trading synthetic shitcoin futures at 50x leverages."
1:23:11
>> What is 50x leverage buy? Like you just like typo. >> Pretty funny. >> Uh, yeah.
1:23:18
Uh, Tyler, figure out uh figure out some alpha in in uh natural gas and start trading it. >> It is interesting.
1:23:27
We haven't heard we haven't heard about the natural gas trade in like the retail circles or kind of the general like uh like all of >> you know like all like basically everyone in >> town got a retail army.
1:23:42
>> Yeah category >> a couple years ago as Nvidia was pivoting from a graphics card maker to an AI accelerator maker similar chip but you know it was becoming a part of the AI narrative.
1:23:52
The AI narrative was developing around Nvidia.
1:23:54
Um the second phase of that was everyone learned what TSMC was.
1:23:59
Then everyone learned what ASML was.
1:24:01
Then everyone learned what SKHENX was because that's the full stack.
1:24:05
You design the chip in at Nvidia.
1:24:08
You make it at TSMC with equipment from ASML and and memory from SKHEX.
1:24:10
And so those became the four companies that everyone knew about.
1:24:14
Now people know about the Neoclouds and the hyperscalers.
1:24:17
Um but there aren't that many people that know like who the key players in natural gas are.
1:24:23
And you know if all the predictions about AI are true, you heard it from Dylan.
1:24:28
He said like a lot of the energy is going to come from natural gas.
1:24:32
And so who who who who are you betting on?
1:24:35
>> I mean I no specific companies but um Leopold has talked about this a lot where basically if if you continue ramping up data centers like you need the power from somewhere and the the most obvious place is natural gas if you can basically get past like regulation and like essentially uh you know all the big companies have these um environmental restrictions on like where they can get power from. >> Yep.
1:24:54
If you can make if you can tear those down, then natural gas is like by far the cheapest uh easiest way to just get like insane amounts of power.
1:25:01
>> Um >> well, it's Yeah.
1:25:02
Reg says Leopold has a crazy position in natural gas company EQT.
1:25:09
>> Yeah, we should dig into that.
1:25:10
>> Only up 46% over the last year. >> Congratulations. Leopold wins again.
1:25:13
Um >> um founded in uh guess >> uh founded in 1983. >> Close. 1888. >> 1888. Let's go. >> Let's go.
1:25:30
>> Just waiting 150 years for the ultimate pump.
1:25:34
>> Like now we're a meme stock. Finally. >> Real patience.
1:25:37
>> Uh Ajax the Great says, "Working at SpaceX has taught me that caffeine limits are imaginary."
1:25:42
Uh yeah, when I was there, I had a minimum 200 milligrams per night.
1:25:47
That's hilarious that he's denominating it in nights.
1:25:52
Like most people would say I have 200 milligrams of caffeine per day >> when I wake up, you know, >> per night.
1:25:56
It's like, yeah, cuz I stay up all night.
1:25:58
I >> start my morning with 200 and usually by noon I'm at 5 to 600 milligrams.
1:26:00
Today I hit over a,000 milligrams.
1:26:02
That's a lot of caffeine.
1:26:05
I don't know if you should be going up that high. Certainly not.
1:26:08
You know, >> you got to work up to you got to work up to it.
1:26:11
Uh Riley Walls >> had sounds like he had a great weekend.
1:26:17
He said the plan at dusk 50 people went to San Francisco's longest deadend street and all ordered a Whimo at the same time.
1:26:24
The world's first Whimo DOS and you can see pictures of the Whimo just obediently lining up uh so he said uh we didn't actually get in the cars.
1:26:37
They left after about 10 minutes and charged a $5 no show fee.
1:26:41
Very fair for for getting messed with.
1:26:44
Uh Whimo might have to build in some functionality of like if you collude with a group to disrupt our services.
1:26:52
>> I would be terrified to do this and be deplatformed from Whimo forever.
1:26:55
>> Yeah, >> it would be very rough.
1:26:57
>> Riley said Whimo handled this well.
1:26:57
I assume this isn't much different than if a big concert had just ended eventually.
1:27:02
They disabled all rides within a twob block vicinity until the morning. This was back in July.
1:27:07
Felt like I was back in middle school. Everyone was giddy.
1:27:11
And when another car showed up, there were cheers.
1:27:13
Maybe three or four real drivers all laughed and just drove around. >> So good.
1:27:17
I like Jake here saying calling him the the tech gesture cannot be stopped. >> Really is.
1:27:23
>> Would you call him an internet rascal? >> An internet rascal. Uh yeah.
1:27:24
Somehow some I I called him an internet rascal and then somehow the team thought that was his like official title.
1:27:30
It's like I Riley Walls am an internet rascal. I like it.
1:27:36
>> Um >> well let me tell you about turbuffer search every bite serverless vector and full tech search build from object storage fast 10x cheaper and extremely scalable.
1:27:45
Um Jeffrey Hinton was featured in the acquired podcast.
1:27:48
They did a deep dive on Google. You can go check it out.
1:27:54
Uh Jeffrey Hinton, father of deep learning at age 31 with Chris Riceck La Hoya California. They are so good.
1:27:59
The the acquired guys are so good at finding these archival images that just go so hard on the timeline. They look amazing.
1:28:08
Uh and David uh FA says probably my favorite factoid about Hinton's family is that basically all of them were mathematicians going back all the way to George Bool for first time medicine list, first ballot medicine list.
1:28:21
eventually kicked off the medicine list uh for being irrelevant in the modern era except for one guy in their family who invented the jungle gym.
1:28:28
Isn't that hilarious that Jeffrey >> imagine inventing the jungle gym?
1:28:34
>> That's such a great invention.
1:28:34
I hope you have like a royalty that just produces endless cash flow for the family forever.
1:28:40
Like there's nothing more enjoyable than meeting a Nepo baby who's like, "Yeah, my great-grandfather invented the pencil." >> Yeah.
1:28:50
You're like, "Yes, you deserve to be on a yacht right now.
1:28:52
You contributed to >> societ."
1:28:54
Imagine just looking at this like monstrosity of just like metal and like traps and and you're you're sitting there, what should we call it? >> The jungle. >> The jungle gym.
1:29:06
>> Jungle gyms bring incredible joy to children all over the world.
1:29:10
It's one of the greatest, least controversial inventions ever.
1:29:13
There's no jungle gym doomers.
1:29:16
>> There's no There's no jungle gym accelerationists.
1:29:18
There's no, oh, jungle gym costs causes brain rot narrative.
1:29:23
There's no hit pieces on jungle gyms.
1:29:26
They are un they are unfiltered. They're wrong.
1:29:29
>> I'm sure they I actually I I would say I bet you we could find a jungle jungle gyms because I'm sure they just massively increase >> injuries annually at schools. >> Worth it. Worth it.
1:29:40
>> You know what doesn't increase injuries at schools? Profound.
1:29:42
Get your brand mentioned in chat GBT.
1:29:44
Reach millions of consumers who are using AI.
1:29:47
discover new products and get a demo.
1:29:51
Uh she friend of the show says he's at Sea Ranch Lodge for lunch.
1:29:55
It's very beautiful and it's owned by Patrick and John Collison and Justin Khan. Very fun. Look at that corgi.
1:30:01
This is a cool >> I had no idea they snapped this up.
1:30:03
I knew that Justin Khan spent a lot of time up in that neck of the woods.
1:30:08
I have been to Sea Ranch.
1:30:11
It's up uh up around where I grew up.
1:30:14
So they have principles for this sea ranch lodge.
1:30:17
Uh yes, nature predominates rural matrix.
1:30:24
No vest pocket nature as at Carmel or Bodega.
1:30:28
I don't know what that means. Uh yes to rural. No to suburbia. Yes to community. No to individual houses. Yes to aesthetics.
1:30:35
No to up for grab aesthetics.
1:30:37
Uh yes to design control.
1:30:40
>> Getting a text of saying there's not just a jungle gym hit piece.
1:30:42
There's a whole book cover.
1:30:46
>> Somebody wrote a book on >> the anti jungle trying to take down big jungle gym. >> Wow.
1:30:52
I will I will I will uh I will go to the mat for the jungle gym.
1:30:59
>> We will defend jungle gyms with our lives. >> Yes.
1:31:02
Not only because they are in the hinton line, but also because they're they're good for the world.
1:31:05
Uh they say it's non non elitist.
1:31:08
They want modesty of house size, reforestation, native trees. Uh, common facilities. Uh, very cool.
1:31:15
>> Wait, they want elitism and large house sizes? >> No, no, not kidding.
1:31:20
Alitas and enormous houses. Yeah. Wait, wait.
1:31:23
I want the one on the right.
1:31:25
I want the one on the right.
1:31:25
Oh, they're taking shots at Malibu.
1:31:28
They said they do not want to relinquish access. Malibu type. Oo.
1:31:31
Collison and Khan teaming up to >> these principles look like they predate them taking ownership unless they just like made it to try to look like a vintage piece of paper >> before before growth equity secondary dollar.
1:31:47
>> No, because there's so much there's so much lore around there's so much lore around Cranch.
1:31:51
>> I don't know any of the lore.
1:31:51
Never heard of Cranch before.
1:31:53
>> There's go you can go down a YouTube rabbit hole around Seanch. >> Yes.
1:31:56
How how conspiratorial does it get?
1:31:59
>> Not conspiratorial at all.
1:31:59
It's just like a very principled development and community and and they've done or now we can we can bring conspiracy to it.
1:32:10
>> Imagine you're just in this like idllic, you know, uh cabin and you go to open the mini fridge and it's like >> tap here for oneclick check. >> I'd like that.
1:32:24
In other news, uh Upper 20 Street Capital, they're running out of, uh phrase capital X, apparently.
1:32:30
Um uh somebody is writing mistakes.
1:32:35
I wrote about investing in Tiny, an eclectic Canadian investment holding company just last year.
1:32:41
>> Tiny is the company founded by Jeremy Gon, right? >> No.
1:32:44
Some people seem to think that in the comments.
1:32:46
>> We should we should we should whatever happens with Tiny, we should hold Jeremy to account, right? Absolutely not.
1:32:50
Uh uh early early team member potentially one of the first hires but not his >> firm.
1:32:58
Somebody in the comments I did notice thought that Jeremy started uh Tiny and that's probably because he's had one of the most iconic podcast appearances in history.
1:33:06
Uh but uh this person is writing uh I wrote about investing in tiny an eclectic Canadian investment holding company just last year concluding that I hope to add to our shares over time and enjoy the benefits of getting in on the ground floor of a techoriented compounder for years to come.
1:33:23
Well, that was a mistake.
1:33:25
Tiny has performed wretchedly not just at share price which if it had gone down independent of how their businesses performed would have bothered would not have bothered me and indeed would have afforded opportunities to buy more.
1:33:34
But no, their fundamental financial performance floundered from the outset and has and have shown no signs of improvement.
1:33:40
Net income and cash flows have dried up completely and what little is left is going towards interest payments on 100 million in debt, some of which they violated covenants of, resulting in their lender asking for accelerated principal repayments in increasingly dire straits.
1:33:54
They sold 4% of the company to a private equity shop for $20 million Canadian, which at today's share price makes it look like Tiny is the one getting the last laugh.
1:34:05
The final nail in the coffin was the behavior of one of its co-founders, the majority shareholder.
1:34:08
The man has simply acted like nothing's wrong at all.
1:34:10
He remains active on Twitter and appears to spend inordinate amount of time on podcast, both as guests and hosts, in the guise of an entrepreneurial guru, often introduced as quote billionaire, even though a cursory glance at the market cap of tiny make that a farcul impossibility.
1:34:27
He's essentially taking victory laps while his company faces a debt maelstrom and his shareholders circle the drain.
1:34:34
And then he sets up a plan to unload millions more shares. Um, so really rough.
1:34:39
I mean, the nominative determinism on tiny was always just so brutal.
1:34:45
>> You want to start a tiny >> holding company?
1:34:49
>> Well, it's a Didn't they start with like a design shop, right? >> Yep.
1:34:53
>> Do you know that there's another design company called Huge? >> How are they doing?
1:34:57
>> I think they're doing great. >> They're up bigly. >> They're in Brooklyn.
1:35:00
They've been going since 1999.
1:35:04
Um, anyways, >> they have a thousand employees. They're doing great. They got a global CEO. They have UX school.
1:35:09
They're very good at user experience.
1:35:12
>> Yeah, I always I always thought it was brutal.
1:35:13
Uh, I I've enjoyed Andrew Wilkinson's uh posts over the years, but I always thought it was brutal that he released a book called Barista to Billionaire.
1:35:21
But by the time he was publishing the book, it was clear that he was no longer a billionaire.
1:35:27
>> Barista Billionaire and back again. Why not?
1:35:29
Isn't that the Lord of the Rings? >> Round trip.
1:35:31
the Lord of the Rings uh book.
1:35:34
>> Now, Tiny does have the arrow press.
1:35:37
>> Oh, that's a good company.
1:35:39
>> Um you can >> still always make coffee.
1:35:43
>> Well, uh let me tell you about Linear.
1:35:44
Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products.
1:35:46
Meet the system for modern software development, streamline, projects, and product road mapaps.
1:35:51
And we have our second guest of the show, Alexis O'hane. Welcome to the stream. >> There he is. >> How you doing? >> What's up, gentlemen? >> What's up? It's been too long. Oh, thank you. >> Congrats, guys.
1:36:02
I I man, I just can't believe it. In like a year.
1:36:08
>> Yeah, >> you've dominated all things LinkedIn media empire.
1:36:11
I I hope it look the >> LinkedIn is the cornerstone of our empire.
1:36:16
It's it's where we think first.
1:36:20
>> But you you saw that you saw the vision.
1:36:22
>> You saw the vision before we had done any guests, before we had gone live.
1:36:26
Like very very >> still dying to invest, guys.
1:36:27
You just happen to make the most profitable podcast ever and you still need investor capital. >> We manifested it.
1:36:35
>> Well, if you if you want to invest, why don't you go turbo long Microsoft? They own LinkedIn.
1:36:40
We're going to make LinkedIn amazing.
1:36:42
It's going to flip every other social network. You'll make a bag. >> Not financial.
1:36:47
>> No, I like the early stage guys.
1:36:47
I publicly traded stocks.
1:36:49
I It doesn't doesn't stir my cocoa.
1:36:52
>> Well, you need to use a 1000x leverage then in the public market.
1:36:55
That's that's >> you need to be able to make it you need to be able to make a,000x or lose it all otherwise otherwise you just don't get the rush to fund.
1:37:03
What uh uh what about uh in you could invest in a Microsoft treasury company.
1:37:08
You could buy a seed stage startup that just holds micro holds a thousandx levered Microsoft stock and then you get the exposure.
1:37:15
You get to hang out with the founder.
1:37:17
You're on the board but and you see the same financial upside.
1:37:21
It can all work out maybe. >> Anyways, it's great. It's great to see you. What uh what's new?
1:37:27
What's new in your world?
1:37:31
Dude, I well, you know, was very kind.
1:37:33
Uh, I think for my second appearance on the show, you let me plug my women's track and field meet now team-based league that's coming, Athlos.
1:37:42
We just had our event in New York. >> Nice. >> Dope, dope time.
1:37:44
Over three and a half million people tuned in this year. >> Spectacle. A lot of fun.
1:37:48
Thank you to the internet. Yeah.
1:37:52
>> Uh, we went wide on the distribution, so you could find it anywhere.
1:37:53
YouTube, X, ESPN, the zone, didn't matter. Um, but it was cool.
1:37:57
And then, um, >> I don't I I was really coming on in part because I wanted to congratulate y'all.
1:38:03
It's been awesome to see the ride.
1:38:03
I've had the privilege of separately funding or or seating or you know playing early investment with y'all separate companies.
1:38:12
>> It's just been so awesome to see the trajectory, the execution, >> the vision and you know congrats. Welld deserved.
1:38:18
I know it's just the start >> and um and this is just me buttering you up so that one day I can invest in the tech >> someday on on the early side.
1:38:25
Um um by the way, yesterday I was trying to hang out with a buddy. He could not.
1:38:29
He was at the Angel City game. >> Oh, really? No way. Fantastic. >> Yeah.
1:38:35
What's the uh what what's what's the update on that front?
1:38:39
>> I mean, we're we're knocking on the door.
1:38:41
We might be able to get in the playoffs here.
1:38:44
>> Um it's going to be it's a little tough.
1:38:46
A little tough right now, but I'm hoping I'm hoping we get in there.
1:38:47
But that that was probably one of my favorite like I was like March of 19 when I rage tweeted about how undervalued women's professional sports was and in in proper Twitter fashion, most people said I was an idiot.
1:38:59
No one cared about women's sports.
1:39:01
But that that obviously has done pretty well.
1:39:02
And uh and yeah, thank him for being an Angel City supporter.
1:39:05
I've got a couple extra spots in the suite if you've got there's a couple of listeners who want uh >> tickets.
1:39:13
You have to figure out a way to give it away here for the last home match of the season, but I'll gladly >> we'll just uh we'll just run a a raffle on LinkedIn.
1:39:20
That'll be the way to >> That's where everyone is. the new alpha%.
1:39:24
Uh the also uh we uh Stoke space you're they announced like a half a billion in new funding last week.
1:39:34
>> Yo, there was the f believe it or not.
1:39:35
So five years ago, first space tech investment I've ever done.
1:39:37
Uh and and very >> one shot in space.
1:39:42
>> I Well, I mean, come on.
1:39:42
It's it was a it was one of those dangerous it's one of those dangerous first investments in a sector because then, you know, you end up thinking you're you're a genius at it.
1:39:52
But uh but Andy Laps and the team are doing a hell of a job.
1:39:54
And and look, obviously Elon Musk has has changed the world with SpaceX, but I think we would all agree a little competition is is a good thing and uh and Andy's got a vision to do these fully 100% reusable rockets and the first launch is going to be at Cape Canaveral this summer and and very very proud of that team and just grateful to be uh little part of that.
1:40:13
>> You'll have to be there.
1:40:13
You're going to go in person. >> Oh yeah.
1:40:15
Do I'm bringing the whole 776 team. We visited. There's photos.
1:40:17
Oh, if I plan, >> there's nothing like watching one of your startups do a launch >> and just act, you know, but but in the case of space, you have to you get a really tight feedback loop.
1:40:28
At least if somebody launches like a SAS company, it's like, oh, how how how do signups look after the first 24 hours?
1:40:34
This is like how how does the rocket in one piece after 20 seconds like you know you know whether or not it worked. >> Yeah.
1:40:43
Um on on on the early stage side, uh I'd love to check in with you on just uh how you're feeling about AI because we had this foundation model war.
1:40:52
Uh, it seems like that's cooling off.
1:40:56
Like Mark Zuckerberg's poaching different found co-founders of different teams, but it still seems like there's a bunch of fertile ground in the early stage, not even call it an AI company, but just a company that's like pulling AI off the shelf.
1:41:13
And I'd love to know kind of how you're thinking about the mobile era, like where the pockets of interesting value come from, what you're what excites you when you see a pitch.
1:41:21
Uh because I imagine you're not getting maybe you are but I imagine you're not getting excited about like yeah we're going up against open AI you know we're we're going to do everything that they're doing but better and it's like that ship has sailed.
1:41:33
So so where are the ships that are leaving the port right now?
1:41:38
>> Um it feels like okay I'd say the companies there was this existential crisis probably two years ago >> where some of these 21 and 22 vintage companies that we had seated were like oh like the world has changed. Yeah.
1:41:53
>> And and a lot of the I think the the the smartest ones frankly pivoted hard to decide like how do we sell picks and shovels?
1:42:01
How do we find ways to just get involved in this?
1:42:04
>> And and we've seen a couple they won't even let me talk about them because their revenue is going so well.
1:42:07
They're like don't tell people about it.
1:42:09
But there's a there there there's a type of company that is selling to all those foundation models that is >> it's basically like throw money at this problem.
1:42:18
We don't need to be expert at it. We just need X.
1:42:20
Maybe we need training data. Maybe we need whatever.
1:42:23
>> Here we call it here we call it the barnacle economy because the whales are are are getting so big that even if you're a barnacle you can go zero to hundred million dollars in a couple years.
1:42:33
Uh and it's like a good way to kind of like get started.
1:42:35
You're hitching a ride on a rocket ship.
1:42:37
You're riding a wave and then you go off and kind of you know source other customers over time and establish your market position.
1:42:45
>> I I love I love Barnacle Economy.
1:42:45
That is a good that is a good meme.
1:42:47
The the other one that's starting to peak now that you all would have great instincts on as well is that it's that whatever the application layer.
1:42:55
It's like how do you build the stuff that's actually dope for the end consumer that you know assume some of these larger models are going to continue to just be uh a solution for a lot of stuff but like let's say you want to see how you look in a Canadian tuxedo. >> There you go.
1:43:10
>> Like >> uh this is dogee shameless. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:43:13
Like if you can make a delightful user experience and for a consumer social guy, this is where I feel like now a lot of my product instincts can start to shine because now I I think we're almost about to see consumer social get fun again and get good again.
1:43:26
People are realizing y'all are This is going to seem like I'm just kissing ass, but you all prove Let me continue.
1:43:32
You all prove the point that so much of the internet is now just dead.
1:43:37
This whole dead internet theory, right? It's not not my idea.
1:43:39
whether it's botted, whether it's quasi AI, you know, LinkedIn slop, like >> having proof of life, like live viewers and live content is really valuable to hold attention.
1:43:51
>> And and so I think we'll see a next generation of social media emerge that's verifiably human cuz like >> because it's all going down in the group chats now.
1:43:57
That can't be that is not novel tech.
1:44:01
There's got to be some next iteration of that because that's where all of us are getting our like really best info now.
1:44:05
And and similarly, I think we're going to get really delightful, fun consumer experiences where, you know, some scrappy founders in Brooklyn like the Doge guys can say, "Hey, let's make shopping fun again using this tech."
1:44:17
And and even if you know the Googles of the world launch some janky tryon experience, like we know those companies are just terrible at innovating product and and aren't really a threat. >> Yeah.
1:44:28
The thing I've been thinking about is is uh is social is what we think of as a social media platform even harder to build now when you think of you're going up against generative media platforms that you know like Sora and like uh Vibes that are basically saying we'll spend hundreds of millions of dollars on compute to try to bootstrap this network.
1:44:51
It's like the last generation of even even the Tik Toks of the world was like, "Okay, you can compete against American social media companies.
1:44:59
You just need to burn billions of dollars."
1:45:01
>> What was the what was the vibe from you with Reddit back where you're like, "Okay, we need a little bit of cash and we need to, you know, clone ourselves a bunch on the platform.
1:45:10
>> AWS credits or something. We'd get you going."
1:45:12
Like it just >> But if you guys had needed like a hund00 million to burn on compute, it wouldn't necessarily have been able to pull that off. >> $72,000.
1:45:20
That's always nice for >> 12k tiny gong.
1:45:28
>> Yeah, we need a baby gong.
1:45:31
>> Y >> massive gong for scrappiness >> and then 60 grand from an angel check from Paul Graham.
1:45:36
I actually >> You got 12k from YC.
1:45:38
That was the first check >> for 7% of the company. It was worth it. Still worth it.
1:45:43
But that is a different time. It's 2005.
1:45:45
If you show up to saw this this day in history, uh, Intel IPOed and raised $6. 5 million.
1:45:54
>> I mean, even inflation adjusted. >> Yeah.
1:45:55
So, >> it's funny, but that's and that's Oh, god.
1:46:00
Okay, that's the other part that makes me a little nervous right now is the Well, I guess look, the everyone's seeing the rounds, everyone's seeing the markups and the valuations and stuff for still fairly early stage companies.
1:46:10
the founders that can maintain their discipline with a ton of cash sitting in their bank account are going to dominate in such a great way because we know you aren't going to need to blit scale like a decade before.
1:46:21
You have no excuse for trying to get hundreds of employees when in reality if you're a pure software company you want to build the Navy Seals, right?
1:46:28
You're having dozens who are going to be able to get you on the revenue.
1:46:31
So if you can spend that money intelligently, obviously you got to drop a lot of into compute, but I I think it'll be it'll be interesting to watch because the blit scaling model didn't really make many people happy.
1:46:42
There aren't many CEOs who are like, "God, I really loved when my company had a thousand employees."
1:46:46
Um, as long as these guys and gals can be good stewards of the capital, I think we can keep this party going.
1:46:53
It's just uh yeah, a lot of lot of lot of companies raising a lot right now.
1:46:58
uh early >> uh what was your uh takeaway from the whole Tik Tok deal?
1:47:03
I know you were you were in the mix and it ultimately >> efforts >> it it ultimately ended up going for well beyond what it feels like the intrinsic value of the asset is especially in comparison it's like would you rather own Perplexity at 20 billion or Tik Tok at 15 right >> or at seven that like it feels like a big platform >> I I am still uh DMs are still open if they want to get me in the mix.
1:47:34
I do think, look, I I had a hunch.
1:47:36
This this to me always felt like the kind of deal where you knew you were going to get it.
1:47:44
Like, if you knew you were going to win it, you were going to know a minute ago. >> Sure.
1:47:47
>> Uh and and and that is what it is. I'm still happy.
1:47:50
I've been publicly talking about how problematic Tik Tok was for sure years and years and years as a vehicle of the CCP.
1:47:55
So, I'm I'm happy it's an American possession.
1:47:57
Now, um I do think look, there's still there's still a lot of value to that zeitgeist to to affecting that.
1:48:05
And I don't know, it'll be interesting to watch.
1:48:08
I mean, I did just say I think social media is about to get upended in some interesting ways, but I think with the right leadership, look, it's still look, it's still meaningful as all hell, and with the right leadership, it can continue to endure in this new era.
1:48:20
This is a fascinating question because Tik Tok feels like for the last maybe decade almost like they it has been the engine of innovation for social media in the sense that the first like hack of like let's actually use licensed music or a lot of the cap cut stuff and a lot of the oh remove the background automatic editing tools a lot of the collab features live streaming like they were definitely pushing the product design very fast.
1:48:50
I wonder if the last two years have just been like total chaos internally and like basically frozen product development because it's like not an exciting place to work.
1:48:59
Everything's going to be under crazy scrutiny.
1:49:00
So even if there's some innovation like oh like instead of just like and retweet there's like a third button that's going to work really well like that hasn't rolled out.
1:49:07
And where I'm where I'm thinking this goes is that um you know we heard OpenAI was going to do a social network.
1:49:14
They did Sora that was like somewhat telegraphed.
1:49:15
Uh it makes a lot of sense that Meta would launch Vibes something in the AI social network AI Tik Tok.
1:49:22
But Tik Tok should launch AI Tik Tok, right?
1:49:24
Like and they've been they've been they've been fantastic at machine learning and AI.
1:49:29
They've had huge data centers running these incredible recommendation algorithms.
1:49:33
That's why the Tik Tok algorithm feels so creepily accurate.
1:49:36
You swipe five times on a car and it's like all car content for the next week.
1:49:40
And they're really good at understanding like you like this car instead of this car.
1:49:43
And that's because of AI and and and their machine learning chops.
1:49:45
they haven't brought that to bear in generative AI yet.
1:49:48
And it seems logical, but I'm wondering if there's still a team there that would push that forward or if they'll just be way more reactive.
1:49:58
I you you bring up a really good point, especially because we've seen this creep up.
1:50:03
And it felt like look, part of the advantage to uh to building in the space is you're right.
1:50:08
I mean, they when we talk about the algorithm, we're talking about Tik Toks, right?
1:50:11
about Tik Toks, right? the effectiveness like you said that they were able to use machine learning to send you more of the stuff you want to keep swiping >> uh does feel like they've been frozen in time the last couple of years >> I think you could get look it's a it is a large enough property with enough cultural influence that I think you get
1:50:26
some really talented people to come go build on it >> and look and company they know how to attract talented people to come build on stuff I wouldn't count it out yet the part and this is look a big reason why I'm still spending so much why why I continue spending more and more time in sports investing in sports teams league etc. I think it's the last
1:50:42
teams league etc. I think it's the last bastion of content and attention when you know 95 think of the future of Hollywood the entertainment industry the music industry it's going to be largely AI generated or assisted >> the the appointment television aside from live you know breaking uh tech and business news uh sport is like
1:51:02
guaranteed >> huge >> and the the celebrity of being an athlete also endures even in the age of AI because why you're famous is not because people know about you it's because of the stuff that you do >> and and So I like there's got to be I think I think whatever that next platform is is either going to feel deeply intimate and human. So it's it's
1:51:18
So it's it's the better version of the group chat that we all have.
1:51:22
And I don't know if maybe it's another level anonymity, decentralization.
1:51:24
I know the crypto bros are excited about that.
1:51:27
>> There's there's potential there.
1:51:29
>> Um or it's it it leans more into live um especially here in the west.
1:51:34
I feel like whatnot and others are still kind of scratching the surface whereas in China it seems like a much bigger part of the culture. >> So I I don't know.
1:51:41
Um, but I'm I'm hopeful I'm hopeful we keep seeing more innovation here because as a as a consumer guy, I I think we've been starved for a long time. >> Yeah, totally. Totally.
1:51:50
Jordy, >> uh, there was some recent reporting that time on social media uh, in the Financial Times, time on social media peaked in 2022 with young people cutting back first.
1:52:02
>> Uh, is that something?
1:52:02
Did you did you ever predict that?
1:52:04
I mean, they're they're kind of you have to factor in I feel like COVID a little bit here.
1:52:10
people going back to work, spending time on basically.
1:52:15
>> It's really just people remote work ending and people like, "Okay." >> Yeah.
1:52:18
You literally go to the office and like Tik Tok is banned on the Wi-Fi, so you can't use it.
1:52:23
>> I like Okay, I like that we're beating this up.
1:52:25
I definitely quote tweeted it because it validated my own worldview.
1:52:28
And so I was like, "Well, obviously this is right. >> Let me victory lap."
1:52:32
>> I think I mean, look, okay, anecdotally, um, I should actually just look at this.
1:52:38
I'm I track all this So, I could probably just look at even just on my mobile phone time spent.
1:52:43
I don't know how far back that goes in that app, but but okay, anecdotally, look at um look at online dating >> and look at how I mean thankfully I'm married because I don't run, but like run clubs have become this new version of how to meet people.
1:52:59
>> Um especially for younger generation.
1:52:59
I got tired of swipe culture.
1:53:00
It it definitely feels like there is a younger generation of folks who are using the internet to find ways to commune offline whether it is events or run clubs.
1:53:09
It feels like there's a there's a bit of a culture shift that's like >> Wait, did you say you're married so you don't run?
1:53:17
>> No, I'm saying I'm married so he doesn't go.
1:53:19
>> It's also helpful that I also don't run cuz I like the idea that the only reason people run is to meet people.
1:53:23
Like that is the like part of the TAM expansion. >> It really has been.
1:53:30
No, no, it's a good point.
1:53:32
>> No, but guys, guys, we can break I can break down why this is. So, I'm very lucky.
1:53:35
I know I know Whitney fairly well from Bumble, but also the OkayCubid guys from back in the day, I'm really dating myself.
1:53:40
The the secret of online dating, assuming straight dating only for a second, >> is high-V value women get inundated by messages from guys.
1:53:48
And so, if they have a bad experience, they churn and your app fails. >> Yeah.
1:53:53
>> And so, every successful dating website is on some level away to make sure that they're having a good time. >> Yep.
1:53:58
>> Yep. And what's interesting about run clubs is it it creates this social dynamic and a sort of physical real world one where if you literally cannot keep up >> and and so I like there is an interesting dynamic there that I think again I've taken a few of these pitches
1:54:14
the the run club app the the dating app for real life like there's there's versions of this that are foaming up and so I want to believe I want to believe the burnout is real and then You combine it with >> just again the fact that so much of the stuff we're seeing is just >> it's to some degree botted or fake. I
1:54:34
I mean I'm meeting I'm meeting founders.
1:54:38
Let me give you a perfect example. Okay.
1:54:39
>> So >> and this is something I wouldn't be surp Okay so CPG days you know how important having a subreddit is to the success of your product right huge.
1:54:47
>> I got about nine months ago I heard from a founder.
1:54:49
I won't say what the subreddit is but he told me he's like oh I just bought the um >> breadmaking r/breadmaking.
1:54:54
I just bought the breadmaking subreddit.
1:54:56
I was like, I didn't know you could buy a subreddit. He said >> against toos.
1:55:00
I imagine that's against >> we definitely but but we found the seven moderator accounts and we bought each of those accounts.
1:55:08
And so now we own those accounts.
1:55:10
We can't we we control who becomes a new mod.
1:55:12
So we own that subreddit.
1:55:13
subreddit. And so very quietly every day on our it's not r/breadmaking but r/ breadmaking we make sure that there are posts that do well that are like oh I love my you know blahy blah bread >> because the value of the GPT um sort of
1:55:28
training the engine what is it GEO now whatever GPT optimization the SEO of of today of the AIH it's so valuable that there's such an economic incentive now and you know if that's what the cracked founders >> are doing and I just learned about that six months ago, eight months ago. Surely
1:55:44
Surely it was happening even before. >> Should we?
1:55:48
>> And it it it it makes the underpinning of so much of what we consume online, >> you know, very much at risk again, which is why stuff like this starts to feel a lot more real and tangible.
1:56:01
>> Should we buy out all the mods of our/communism and start killing them on capitalism? >> We'd have to.
1:56:07
I mean, it's it's it's interesting >> already for probably I imagine >> post luxury watches.
1:56:11
I imagine they would be very principal if you tried if you offered $10,000.
1:56:15
They'd be very principled.
1:56:17
They'd be like, "There's no price that I would, you know, sell my account."
1:56:21
You offer them a million dollars.
1:56:23
H actually >> this communism thing sucks.
1:56:26
>> I think 20K might do it.
1:56:29
>> Everyone's going to have their price.
1:56:30
What do you think about uh I feel like there's been an idea I haven't I've I've seen some pitches over the last couple years of people uh selling this vision of like Instagram but it's just you and a million bots >> or and and so that feels like the social
1:56:46
network the >> well it feels like a social network that you don't need a you know a billion dollars like to start like something like a Sora like very expensive not not any old team can just >> build that absolely Absolutely right, Jordy. >> Thanks. Thanks, John. Um, >> Thanks. Thanks, John.
1:57:00
Um, >> it's not this, it's that.
1:57:03
Um, but but but and and I think the reason that I think is somewhat interesting is people can say bots are a feature, not a bug, right?
1:57:12
Like X clearly doesn't take bots >> as seriously as maybe they should.
1:57:15
And I think part of that is probably just brings back >> it's hard to solve, but it also brings it's like a notification, right?
1:57:23
It brings people back to the app.
1:57:24
there's a reason to uh check the app even if you're not getting real engagement.
1:57:30
But I've generally been bearish on these sort of just like entirely bot networks because I think people still want to feel like even if they're getting a notification from like an account that could be a bot, they're still running the calculus of like, oh, maybe it is a real person. I don't know. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:57:46
It would have to be the utility of the bot, the why of the bot would have to be so great that no human could reasonably do it.
1:57:53
So Reddit had a version, a third party version of this was like the remind me bot. >> Oh yeah.
1:58:00
>> Where you would just tag in remind me and some amount of time and it will message you back.
1:58:04
So like there that that isn't it right.
1:58:06
No no no reasonable human would keep track of all that Great use of a bot. Yep.
1:58:10
>> Um there there there could be uses for that but it would really like in each one of them it would have to be so worth it can't just be sick fancy like it has to be like no this actually adds some value that no human could reasonably do.
1:58:23
I think for me to get excited about it because people can still find the sycopants one to one. >> Yeah.
1:58:28
>> Do you really need a hundred or a thousand and frankly, you know, probably 10% of humanity will fall >> in some way in in love with or in obsession with some kind of an AI.
1:58:37
Uh in the same way we lost people to MMO RPGs or what have you, like >> there there's a version of that to exist, but I I don't know about the one to many.
1:58:47
At the same time, it feels like about 10% of the population maybe will do the exact opposite and instead of getting lost in the hyper futuristic infinite gest, they will just go back to like logging off complete retro stuff.
1:59:02
Uh I want to know two things like the general take on on retro electronics, throwback websites, throwback tech.
1:59:07
And then I want to know specifically uh what game are you playing on your mod retro chromatic most often these days because you've been posting a lot about it >> dude.
1:59:19
Um I don't know if we totally announced it. Well, okay.
1:59:21
I I'm going to have to disclose. We're also an RIA.
1:59:24
So now anything I say so I mean it is a 776 company.
1:59:28
We're very lucky to invested with Torren and Palmer and and it is I am an unabashed gamer.
1:59:32
It's it's I have I mean I have graded video games actually >> graded video games.
1:59:37
Oh, like uh like like older copies that are kept in the box. >> Look at this, guys. >> That's cool.
1:59:43
>> This is original Game Boy. >> Wow. >> Like this is my art. Wow. Right. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:59:50
>> I I this was I I coveted this as a kid.
1:59:52
We could not have >> I've long had this thesis now, Dad.
1:59:54
I I I've long had this thesis that I I don't know how it'll play out, but like uh in many ways uh video games can be the new golf for a generation of young people that grew up playing competitive video games and then they will like play games with their crew uh like online and like it'll actually like kind of be this place where people have business discussions in the lobby of Fortnite in a few years like once they get >> No, it is.
2:00:19
So three years ago, two years ago, uh was an early long time ago was an early investor in row row health.
2:00:24
Z Ray Tano, founder and CEO.
2:00:28
>> After our board meetings, we play Fortnite. >> Yeah.
2:00:30
>> So, will this has been going on I think he does it with some other CEO.
2:00:34
>> I heard some hilarious story about a a kid who runs a company and does all his meetings in COD.
2:00:40
>> He's like, "No, no, seriously."
2:00:40
I mean, he's like some like I don't know, crypto founder or something and and like he's a very small like lean company.
2:00:45
He's just like, "Oh, yeah, like let's just hop on Rust if we want to like hash this out."
2:00:51
Uh, but first, uh, I do want to know, uh, top mod retro game. I got Tetris, obviously.
2:00:57
I got a few other games, but what should I get? >> Here you go. Self simulated. It's a platformer. It's a lot of fun.
2:01:01
It involves your robot dying in an infinite number of its clones having to make its way out.
2:01:08
I may or may not be working on a game of my own. >> I was about to ask.
2:01:11
be ready for the holiday >> because if the mod retro chromatic install base gets big enough, you could potentially develop new games and it would probably be pretty cheap to develop because you're not trying to do GTA 5 with networking and stuff, right?
2:01:22
Like you're actually just like you could maybe even vibe code it a little bit. Like it's pretty doable.
2:01:27
>> That is exactly right.
2:01:27
I mean, this is an indie game and what's crazy is the amount of money I'm spending on this game is tens of thousands of dollars and that's everything.
2:01:33
And that's for basically developer, designer, >> a little bit of soundtrack, music stuff.
2:01:39
Like it's it doesn't >> that's not GTA 6 money.
2:01:40
Like that's that's accessible for just like an artist with like a couple backers.
2:01:45
There's going to be a new crowdfunding boom potentially.
2:01:47
You could get new Kickstarter stuff going actually delivering stuff. That's super cool.
2:01:51
>> And and and what I love about the constraint is similar to a great tweet, right?
2:01:56
You're limited on characters.
2:01:56
You got to make each one count.
2:01:57
You're limited on pixels. You make each count.
2:02:00
And it forces you to think more about gameplay and do weirder interesting stuff.
2:02:04
Like there's a sea shanty like Guitar Hero style game >> uh that I actually need to try uh on the chromatic where it's like that would have never been >> man come.
2:02:16
I loveies >> took the cost to be reasonable enough that you could get experimental and turn around a really high quality in a game.
2:02:24
So, I'm bullish on it, especially cuz you know, every new Call of Duty, every new Battlefield, like the graphics get marginally better, but it's diminishing returns, right?
2:02:31
Oh, the buildings are now 99% more destructible. That's cool.
2:02:35
But it doesn't it's not a huge step function.
2:02:38
Like, will I buy the new Grand Theft Auto when it ever comes out? Of course. >> Of course.
2:02:42
>> But but there's there's room for this kind of simpler format that it's it's very dope.
2:02:48
And, you know, Palmer's not stopping there.
2:02:50
Uh, so if you've seen any of the tweets, there's some very cool hardware on the way. Uh, >> I'm very excited. Yeah. >> Yeah.
2:02:56
I think he's uh I think he's on the schedule. >> Yeah. >> For later this month. Last question.
2:02:59
How what's your framework and and view on AI companions broadly.
2:03:04
Uh it feels like one of those things that uh everybody has like kind of a moral framework around investing into.
2:03:13
Elon obviously ran the calculus of it feels like a market that uh a lot of the other labs didn't want to lean into heavily.
2:03:20
He was willing to uh to lean in. He went there. He went there.
2:03:26
Um but what's your because I'm sure you've gotten pitch uh probably hundreds of pitches.
2:03:32
>> You haven't tried Claude sexy mode yet.
2:03:36
>> This is where Oh Lord.
2:03:36
This is definitely where I feel like uh there's probably look the market's gonna find the market's not necessarily going to regulate itself.
2:03:45
Th this is clearly one of the endg games for AI for some percentage of the population.
2:03:50
Y >> I'm not like jumping out of bed to fund that company and you know thankfully Elon's doing it with those hentai uh characters, >> you know, but um but I do think okay the version of it that I think is very interesting to me.
2:04:05
>> There's and I've been using I mean maybe it just ends up being chatt or anthropic like I use them as a as a kind of executive coach in real time >> when I'm looking for feedback on emails or just my own sort of notes on stuff.
2:04:19
Like there's there's some version of that that I think is interesting and compelling.
2:04:23
I like I I've been actively looking for the version of it that is kid-friendly but not you know and there there's been some interesting ones that have gotten funding.
2:04:32
I don't know I like because the way I use AI with my kid right now is it's just the always on tutor that we can sort of ask questions to or will provide trivia questions >> um for us on the use case.
2:04:43
It's been fun and it's great and we do a little creative storytelling, story writing, but it's always with me because I she's eight, right?
2:04:50
I I still >> I want her to think of this as a tool that's going to give her superpowers to solve any problem she needs.
2:04:55
I'm excited to see >> here's another one uh you know that I think the Palmers of the world will be thinking about is if you're focused on consumer electronics like consumer hardware, the the way this generation, this AI native generation is going to interact with UI and UX is different from us.
2:05:13
And it's the same, it's the version of the kids swiping the magazine back in the day. Oh, yeah.
2:05:17
They thought the iPad was broken, but it's a paper magazine, right?
2:05:21
Cuz that form factor was so native to them.
2:05:22
There's an AI first almost a voice first version that I'm expecting like cuz even I I watch my daughter when she gets on her iPad for iPad time, like she usually uses the microphone to dictate text into the the prompts or what have you >> um instead of typing.
2:05:39
Like I'm trying to get around the whole quarity thing, but again, if I'm realistic, I'm like, well, this is way faster.
2:05:44
These things, like literally, these things were designed to be slow so that the keys wouldn't jam on a typewriter, right?
2:05:51
And all the D'vorak keyboard people are like, "We told you finally we're validated."
2:05:55
But I actually think this this should feel like a relic from a bygone age if we build the right interface for it.
2:06:01
So, I think voice is going to get more interesting and I'm I'm looking towards the younger generation for just helping us uh get ideas out of our heads. >> Yeah.
2:06:09
The combination of kids toys plus LLMs is interesting, too.
2:06:12
I'm sure they'll be jailbroken in terrible ways immediately, but if you can combine like actual >> Yeah.
2:06:19
But we never did that on the internet in 2000 either. >> Yeah.
2:06:23
If you can combine like >> like novel IP that's a hit plus the LLM layer where the the kid just doesn't love like a certain >> plushy thing.
2:06:33
I mean, super underrated that OpenAI has a deal with uh, you know, everyone talks about Broadcom, Nvidia, Oracle.
2:06:38
They have a deal with Mattel.
2:06:40
Like, or OpenAI and Barbie are in business together.
2:06:43
Like, let's think about that for a second.
2:06:45
And Ken, >> it's going to be fun. >> Ken is AGI Pill.
2:06:49
>> Yeah, you're going to be able to go to Ken and Barbie. AGI. It'll be fun.
2:06:50
Uh, thank you so much for stopping by. This is a great time. >> Great to catch up. >> Appreciate you guys. Keep up the great work. >> You too. Thanks for having me.
2:06:59
>> We'll talk to you soon. >> Talk soon.
2:07:00
Uh, speaking of Palmer, uh, massive news out of Ander today.
2:07:03
Uh, Jen Buchcci shares fit check and shows an insane design for an augmented reality virtual reality for the war fighter. I believe it is. Um, >> wow.
2:07:16
>> Reggie James comments.
2:07:16
He says, "I for one love that national defense and intelligence are just founders fund incubation projects."
2:07:22
Um, and had the full story.
2:07:25
Uh, they said, "Super powers for superheroes.
2:07:28
Today they are unveiling Eagle Eye, the family of war fighter augments that place mission command and AI directly into the operator's helmet. Very cool.
2:07:37
The lineage of this program is wild.
2:07:41
Microsoft is working on it for a while. And got the contract.
2:07:43
Uh but still >> they do full page print ad in the journal for this.
2:07:50
>> Would they or did they? >> They already did. >> They did. Fantastic. Pull it up.
2:07:51
Uh and Garcia Capital says, "This isn't a Call of Duty screenshot.
2:07:55
This is Anderil's eagle eye.
2:07:57
Palmer's been on record saying that he thinks that the war fighter uh will be adopting virtual reality headsets or AR headsets before the consumer because weight cost and you can just mandate, hey, you got to wear this thing to do your job.
2:08:13
>> Well, and you can say we're going to spend $50,000 on each headset versus Meta being, you know, in a position where they need to make a headset for like >> 300 bucks >> 300.
2:08:24
they can sell for 800 or they're probably losing money. I don't know. >> Yep. Yep.
2:08:27
So, the willingness to pay to save a life on the battlefield is way higher than watch a movie or play a game.
2:08:33
>> What do you think of that new headset, Tyler? >> They're so sick.
2:08:34
How do we I mean, >> how do we get one?
2:08:37
>> We got to get one of these. >> How do we get a demo?
2:08:39
>> I'm looking through like that they've posted some other images of what it looks like and it's like it just looks like Call of Duty.
2:08:43
Like there's a mini map >> and then uh when you have a gun it shows like where it's like aiming at. >> That's crazy. >> It's sick.
2:08:50
>> It's really Yeah, Call of Duty Infinite Warfare is now here.
2:08:52
Uh very excited to see more demos of this as it rolls out.
2:08:57
Uh congratulations to the entire Anderoll team on the progress.
2:08:58
Um the uh yeah the lineage there is fascinating and I always had this thesis that like that like Palmer and and was like the perfect company to do this project.
2:09:08
Uh originally called Ivas.
2:09:11
Uh and Ivas was kind of languishing within Microsoft for a number of years and it made sense that Palmer has the VR.
2:09:19
>> Are they getting like a paid like a billion dollars a year?
2:09:21
or it was some massive contract that was getting >> Yeah, it Yeah, I think it was like a 10 something billion dollar project or project or scope of work, but I don't know how much they'd actually drawn down on that because I don't know how much they'd actually delivered against the contract.
2:09:37
Um, there was still a lot of value to be paid if you could deliver, but Microsoft, I think, wasn't quite delivering.
2:09:44
And so, uh, Andrew bought the contract or or or acquired the contract or merged the contract in and then now is running at it much harder.
2:09:52
And, uh, I mean, it seems like a really, really, uh, solid progress, which is exciting.
2:09:56
Um, so if you go over and you get a Chromatic, you're going to have to pay sales tax.
2:10:01
The Chromatic team telling you, get on numeralhq.
2:10:03
com, sales tax at autopilot, spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance.
2:10:08
Um, more news on rare earths.
2:10:10
Uh, all Gil who came on the show. narrative violation. >> Oh yeah. Uh >> Abundant Earths.
2:10:17
>> Abundant Earths is quoting uh Ben Thompson.
2:10:18
He says, "US's the US deficiency in rare earths isn't a matter of needing to catch up to technological excellence.
2:10:25
It's needing to simply have the will, incentives, and regulatory regime to do what it what we already did before, TLDDR. They are not rare.
2:10:31
We just chose not to make them in the United States of America."
2:10:35
Uh the NRC of old hurt multiple aspects of US resilience in both energy and manufacturing.
2:10:42
Hopefully the current NRC can change help change things for the better.
2:10:45
Now the steelman for not making uh rare earths in America is and I think we now realize that it was a mistake.
2:10:56
But I but I do think it's important to understand the rationale behind not doing mining in America. Like it is dirty. It is gross.
2:11:03
Like if you have a mine upstream for you, there's probably going to be some pollution.
2:11:08
If you're worried about microlastics, you're also probably uh worried about malibdinum in your >> forever chemicals >> in your tap water.
2:11:16
Uh forever chemicals, all these different things.
2:11:18
It is a it is a a very rough job.
2:11:20
You know, the famous like coal miner gets black lung.
2:11:25
Like there was a there was a reasonable rationale for for not uh doing this all over the United States.
2:11:31
But uh the true answer was all was always more technology.
2:11:35
It wasn't, hey, mining is dirty.
2:11:38
Let's not do dirty mining.
2:11:38
It was like, let's figure out how to actually clean it.
2:11:43
Like there is a way to it might be a little bit less economical, but there is a way to put a mine somewhere and have the chemicals contained and not destroy the environment.
2:11:52
And that always should be >> the answer.
2:11:55
Just like with nuclear power plants, design one that doesn't blow up. That's the answer.
2:12:00
The answer is not no more nuclear power plants.
2:12:02
It's design one that's safe.
2:12:04
And so, uh, hopefully we can get there and hopefully we can, uh, reshore it.
2:12:08
There are a couple companies that are working on it.
2:12:10
MP Materials, I think, is one.
2:12:11
Uh, there's a few others that are, uh, you know, working on rare earth manufacturing and processing. >> Yeah.
2:12:18
The challenge is trying to massively increase produ, you know, production capacity while making the process much cleaner. >> Yes.
2:12:27
>> You kind of need to choose one typically. >> Yes.
2:12:29
There is a third option though.
2:12:29
The third option is to recycle the materials that we have.
2:12:35
So there's a there's a public company and then there's Redwood Materials which was founded by JB Strabble who was uh I believe co-founder or at least on the board of Tesla for a number of years.
2:12:44
And uh his whole pitch is there's there's already we already have a ton of rare earths.
2:12:48
They're just locked in depreciated electric cars.
2:12:54
let's rip them up, reprocess them, and then recycle them because uh the actual matter is conserved even after the battery is no longer useful.
2:13:01
And so you can separate all those out and then uh and then reintroduce them into the supply chain.
2:13:07
And so uh Redwood Materials has been on that on that track for a number of years and hopefully is is doing well because it's more more important than ever.
2:13:14
Um, what what else do you want to go through in the timeline while you pay?
2:13:19
>> Pegasus says, "OpenAI starting to give off FTX vibes.
2:13:22
What do you think caused this?" >> Uh, October 13th.
2:13:27
>> This was this morning. >> TBP appearance. No. >> Uh, yeah.
2:13:31
I >> extremely bearish for us. Um, >> I know.
2:13:36
I mean, so so FTX was getting unbelievably large while telling the world that they had like five engineers and they were running a hedge fund that was actively effectively trading against uh their user base. >> Yep.
2:13:56
>> Um they >> they're I I don't know.
2:13:58
It's it's uh I think >> I think it's a rough pattern match match.
2:14:03
Um, I mean, first off, >> it's not to say you can't find ways to criticize OpenAI and criticize Sam's deal making and all that kind of thing, but it it feels wildly different. >> Yeah, for sure.
2:14:14
Uh, I mean the the FTX narrative was was so so >> Sam is not like trading he's trading with the subscription revenue that you give them.
2:14:26
But it's way it's wildly different than uh, you know, millions of people holding deposits with a financial institution that's half onshore, half offshore >> and you know making wild degenerate bets. >> Totally.
2:14:40
Even even just the aesthetics, like the vibes of SBF where he was doing like those Tik Tok dances and his whole brand was like, I'm this like 20-year-old billionaire.
2:14:50
It's like Sam drive Honda Accord.
2:14:52
I Camry Sam will straight up tell you he likes a fancy car.
2:14:58
Uh and uh yeah, so way less fake.
2:15:01
I've >> Sam Sam said he'd never buy a car for a quarter mill. >> Exactly. He got it.
2:15:05
Um and and also like Yeah.
2:15:09
this whole uh the whole SBF thing was just so much faster.
2:15:12
FTX ramps so much faster than OpenAI.
2:15:14
Um OpenAI I mean started what a decade ago like they they really have been working for a long time.
2:15:21
Also Sam uh uh Sam Alman has a way longer track record in Silicon Valley like investing in big companies growing them.
2:15:30
He's been you know more or less correct on like the energy question on the SAS question.
2:15:34
One way to pattern match it is that they're both CEOs that happen to be make some pretty good investments >> and their name's Sam. >> Their names.
2:15:42
>> Is that a coincidence? >> Coincidence. >> Draw the red string. >> Red string. >> Red string time.
2:15:47
Um I mean they are actually more linked because isn't the like open philanthropy effective altruism stuff linked right Tyler? Back me up on this. What's the link?
2:15:56
me up on this. What's the link? I mean I I know um a lot of like EA funding uh was was mostly from like FTX like it totally destroyed like the ecosystem and I think that's maybe when they actually changed I I don't know if it's the same organization open philanthropy or EA um but there was something where basically FTX crashes >> everything is kind of wiped out including like a lot of EA >> fun but in fact I think a lot there
2:16:20
there would be a lot more string between FTX and anthropic right than FTX and open AI because a lot of the EA is like left uh opening eye to go over to Enthropic, but um also like that's a very real business with like and it's
2:16:33
like yeah, it's just like what what what would be the uh like like the nature of like selling tokens for subscription revenue is just not the same as being a hedge fund that can like blow up on one bad trade if like you're overlevered. It's just like you you can get
2:16:47
It's just like you you can get overlevered if you have a lot of debt and stuff, but the debt's off. I don't know.
2:16:52
It's a stretch, but it's certainly a viral post because there's a lot of people with strong opinions.
2:16:56
Everyone has like a favorite foundation, models, company, CEO right now.
2:17:00
You can't just be a fan of all of them like we are.
2:17:03
You can't just be like, I like capitalism business. I like all of them.
2:17:07
It's a good >> What are your what's your take on the AI labs? I like the lab. >> I like them.
2:17:14
>> Yeah, we support We support the the foundation model CEOs across the board. Like we support Finn.
2:17:19
AI, AI, the number one AI agent for customer service, number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive bakeoffs, number one ranking on G2.
2:17:26
Um, watching my friends kid and immediately put him on the drugs. What is this? Uh, >> Miss Rachel.
2:17:34
>> I don't know who that is.
2:17:35
>> You've never You've never thrown on >> I've never seen Miss Rachel.
2:17:37
I think I saw her mentioned in the Wall Street Journal once, but that's really the only interaction I've ever had.
2:17:43
YouTuber >> YouTuber gets uh probably Miss Rachel.
2:17:51
Yeah, she's she's pulling I mean, so >> her top videos do like billions of views. >> Billions.
2:17:58
>> She has a video from three years ago called Baby Learning with Miss Rachel. 1. 6 billion views.
2:18:04
>> That's a lot of views.
2:18:05
>> Um, so she puts up insane numbers.
2:18:05
Uh, but it's, you can think of it somewhat like crack cocaine, okay, for the youth.
2:18:14
>> Uh, in that it's like hyper addictive. It it's very engaging.
2:18:18
I do believe that it it it's like probably effective at uh teaching, but at the cost of >> every Yeah.
2:18:28
It's it's it's not it's basically >> it doesn't immediately scream brain rot, but then when you if you actually pay attention to it, it's cutting quickly.
2:18:40
It's it's keeping them uh kids, you know, massively engaged.
2:18:42
And then if you turn it off, it's like full meltdown mode. Yeah.
2:18:48
>> Jordy, would you say um it's equivalent to like that that thing where it's um uh it would be >> it's like a Darcesh interview for you.
2:18:55
If you're if you're playing it and I come unplug your headphones, you start screaming >> screaming and pounding the table.
2:18:59
You can't you go non >> Sarah Payne was explaining.
2:19:04
>> I was I was listening to I was relisting to Leopold's interview yesterday.
2:19:07
I was feeling a little bit low on the AGI filness.
2:19:11
I had to get you know refilled. Yeah.
2:19:13
Um, but so would you say it's similar to like when you see um like Peter Griffin like explaining like math concepts?
2:19:20
Have you ever seen these? >> No. >> Okay.
2:19:22
Well, it's like it's like Family Guy characters and they're like, "Oh, this is like uh you know how you do gradient descent or something?"
2:19:27
They're they're explaining some like >> is Peter Griffin like the dwarash of the Family Guy universe or something?
2:19:32
Explain who Peter Griffin is.
2:19:35
>> All right, never mind.
2:19:36
>> None of us none of us get each other's references at all.
2:19:38
Uh what is funny about this picture that uh growing Daniel shared is that he says watching my friend's kid and immediately put him on the drugs and it's Mitch Miss Rachel showing on a TV but this is clearly a conference room.
2:19:49
Like there is have you ever seen this little uh if you zoom in on the actual device on the on the table there.
2:19:55
Do you know what this is?
2:19:55
It's like a 360 camera that you can use to like zoom around the room and and maybe we should get one right here.
2:20:01
We can we can have you know you can zoom in on me or you Tyler or you or whatever you want. Uh anyway, very funny. very funny random post.
2:20:09
Uh you mentioned it earlier, but on this day, Intel IPOed at a pri stock price of $23. 50.
2:20:15
By close, it had raised $6. 8 million. Historical size gong. >> Historical size. >> Absolutely wild run.
2:20:32
>> Let me tell you about Adio.
2:20:32
Customer relationship magic.
2:20:34
Adio is the AI native surround that builds, scales, and grows your company to the next level.
2:20:40
>> Benny Feldman is going viral on X.
2:20:40
He says, "My buddy lost his job to AI.
2:20:43
His job was to chug thousands of gallons of water at a data center." >> This is so funny.
2:20:51
>> Remember, if you're thirsty, Gro is thirsty, too.
2:20:55
>> Yeah, this is uh this is wildly viral. 147,000 likes.
2:20:58
Uh Apple apparently has rebranded its streaming service Apple TV plus to Apple TV.
2:21:06
>> This is where all the alpha alpha is in streaming.
2:21:08
You can rebrand once a year.
2:21:12
Add a plus, drop a plus, add a max, >> drop a max.
2:21:16
This is how the modern economy works.
2:21:19
>> What is the current HBO name?
2:21:19
Is it It's back to HBO Max.
2:21:22
So now now you can go and buy an Apple TV, open the Apple TV app and subscribe to Apple TV. Apple TV.
2:21:31
So now there's three products that are all called Apple TV. It's pretty wild.
2:21:37
>> Well, you know, there's some good stuff on there. F1.
2:21:40
You wouldn't have watched F1 without Apple TV.
2:21:41
So >> I watched it on I watched it on Amazon Prime though. >> You did?
2:21:46
But it but it was produced by Apple TV plus the streaming service. Like Yes.
2:21:51
like the because there's a production company.
2:21:52
There's like seven layers of they they vertically integrated the supply chain.
2:21:56
Um, how do you save money on the icon pass?
2:21:58
Let's go to the damn ri Dave Ramsey.
2:22:00
So, you buy the icon pass to save money skiing. Yes, Dave.
2:22:06
Because you have the icon pass, you now travel to Colorado, Utah, Japan, and Europe to ski.
2:22:11
So, you end up spending more money on ski trips. That is correct, Dave.
2:22:17
>> The PE guide like this. >> Great post. Great post. Icon Pass.
2:22:21
>> Uh Will Manitis, >> I got in a fight with somebody over the icon pass.
2:22:24
I was I was maintaining that the that the slopes weren't in fact crowded this ski season with my one data point.
2:22:32
I went skiing once or twice or something like that.
2:22:34
I was like, it wasn't that bad.
2:22:35
And they were like, I went skiing 25 times.
2:22:36
It was terrible this season.
2:22:38
They need to raise prices. But I don't know.
2:22:40
We spent most of our time locked in the studio, the Ultradome.
2:22:44
Didn't get that many days of fresh pow.
2:22:48
Uh Wilmanitis was uh David Senra released the second ever episode of David Senra by David Senra, hosted by David Senra and executive produced by David Senra.
2:22:58
Uh Will Manitis shared uh of course episode with Michael Dell.
2:23:04
Will Manitis shared that Michael Dell was 23 when Dell computer crossed 150 million in sales.
2:23:09
Not something you see a picture that has exactly 23 pixels apparently.
2:23:15
Couldn't find a couldn't find a higher res version, but it is >> find a higher res version from October 19th, 1987.
2:23:21
Will >> I will always remember October 19th because we made a $25 million deal that day, said Dell, whose Dell Computer Corporation grossed $159 million in sales last year.
2:23:34
Of thousands of deals that were squashed that day, ours was one of the only ones that wasn't. Wow. Absolutely.
2:23:43
Can we pull up this video of the Chinese Uni Tree humanoids?
2:23:48
>> And while we're pulling that up, let me tell you about eight. com. Get a pod five.
2:23:52
How do you sleep last night?
2:23:53
We know that Saturday was a rough night.
2:23:55
>> Kind of had a rough go. I got a 73. >> I got a 93. Play my sound quue. Let's go. >> Rough, rough, rough.
2:24:04
>> But you know who doesn't need to sleep? A Unitry robot.
2:24:05
Let's play the video of the Unitere Robots dancing at an incredible speed. Wow, that is remarkable.
2:24:14
We got to get one of these.
2:24:15
>> Okay, so this is a $7 billion company. >> Yep. Whoa. Pretty cool.
2:24:20
Putting clothes on them is really cool. >> Not the dancing dog.
2:24:26
>> Dogs are not as impressive to me for some reason.
2:24:27
Maybe I'm just uh >> you don't John doesn't like seeing robot dogs.
2:24:34
>> I've just seen so many because Boston Dynamics has posted so many videos like that.
2:24:38
>> But that's a game performance.
2:24:38
You never see Boston Dynamics >> I don't know >> putting on an entire play.
2:24:45
>> Uh I'm not that impressed. Do better. Step it up. Give it a gun.
2:24:53
>> That's the That's the solution.
2:24:53
Until it's until it's doing 360 nocopes in a kill house.
2:24:58
>> John will not be impressed. >> I won't be impressed.
2:24:59
I want to see it on the battlefield.
2:25:00
Um Daario Amade at Anthropic met with uh Narendra Modi the PM of India to discuss anthropic expansion into India where claude code use is up 5x since June.
2:25:11
How India deploys AI across critical sectors like education, healthcare and agriculture for over a billion people will be essential to shaping the future of AI.
2:25:22
And Max Bodach Bodok says prediction we're going to see way more images of hyperscaler CEOs being treated like visiting heads of state.
2:25:29
Uh, who ora farmed who here, Tyler?
2:25:32
Between Narendra Modi and Dario Amade.
2:25:36
>> I think I'm gonna give it to Daario. >> I think he a farmed. I agree.
2:25:39
>> Yeah, >> it's a good farm. It's a good farm.
2:25:41
>> You always have to take account like what is their previous kind of aura levels going in. >> Yes.
2:25:45
>> Obviously, head of state, it's hard to beat that. >> Yep. Especially.
2:25:48
So, I think this is the new move.
2:25:50
If you're like a seedstage founder, you need to get a photo op done. >> I don't know.
2:25:53
I mean just just analyzing the positioning mod's a little bit turned in. >> True.
2:26:00
>> Meanwhile, the Chad Daario is just sitting.
2:26:05
>> I'm saying the same thing.
2:26:06
>> Wait, >> I'm saying I'm saying Dario or farmed. >> Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Daario or farmed. Clearly. >> Yeah.
2:26:13
Mod's looking sharp is all I'm saying.
2:26:15
But yeah, if you ran the green line test and you look specifically at Mod's legs, the way they're sort of slanted in, >> it's critical.
2:26:22
It was uh >> it's not it's not quite Dario.
2:26:27
>> Dario also looks a couple inches taller.
2:26:28
He's got he's got a kind of fluffy head of hair to add an extra inch.
2:26:31
That helps with the aura farming.
2:26:33
There's a lot that goes on there.
2:26:36
>> Um but congratulations to Claw Code.
2:26:39
>> Tashi Michelle says, "Meta has zero net cash, net of debt and operating leases.
2:26:44
At the beginning beginning of the year, they had 30 billion of net cash.
2:26:46
The cash burn is >> real." Um, so >> this is good.
2:26:52
They finally found something to invest in. This is bullish. Stagnation over.
2:26:56
For a long time, the hyperscalers were critiqued.
2:26:59
You guys produce so much cash, you don't know what to do with it.
2:27:02
The best thing you can do is give it back to investors.
2:27:03
Now they have something to invest in. >> They do.
2:27:08
>> They have something the there is a technology worth investing in.
2:27:09
That's always been the critique.
2:27:12
Now they're putting money to work.
2:27:14
Sarah Sarah go said earlier Meta has generated 100 billion of operating cash over the last 12 months and it has a leader unafraid of the public markets.
2:27:22
If AI training is capex is a capex game, a cash for talent game and a speed to execute game.
2:27:26
It is ludicrous to count them out. Uh well well said.
2:27:32
Uh yeah, I'm just looking, you know, I think I think uh people are going to hold them to an incredibly high standard because they have put together, you know, they've spent billions building this team. Yep.
2:27:45
>> They're willing to outspend everyone else, be bolder.
2:27:47
else, be bolder. And so ultimately, that's why the Meta Vibes and Sora launches are again >> uh embarrassing for >> MSL because it seems like they kind of rushed they they didn't Sora is what you know you can critique Sora you can say it's slop you can not like using the app but they they created a key innovation with the cameo they had
2:28:15
not just a leap forward in the model quality but a leap forward on the product level they created something that >> ultimately will >> probably be it's like a new social >> pattern and product that will probably be copied by Tik Tok it'll probably be copied by >> Instagram Instagram and so you have to give them credit. It just makes Meta's
2:28:34
It just makes Meta's Vibes app look uh rushed and not actually innovative at all. Right.
2:28:41
It's just sort of a feed.
2:28:43
Somebody else on X was saying it looks like uh makes it look like kind of more like a wallpaper app than a social media feed. >> Yeah.
2:28:53
Um play this out with me with with stories in Snapchat.
2:28:56
it was very easy for uh for the Meta team to look at Snapchat as a chat app and they had WhatsApp and Instagram DMs and stuff and so they were they were they were in a decent spot there but then once stories came out it became more of a video consumption platform and so they had to bring stories to Instagram.
2:29:15
They did that successfully.
2:29:18
>> Uh vertical scroll endless scrolling video from Tik Tok that was also ported back to Instagram successfully.
2:29:22
I I would regard reals as a success.
2:29:26
uh is it harder or is it somehow structurally different to port back the best practices from Sora to Instagram?
2:29:36
Like let's say that they just you know go to Microsoft say give me a copy of Sora or whatever they got they got the IP from you know the team that they've built they've done the training run they have the exact same technology they're GPU richch they have the exact same ability to ship the feature if they ship
2:29:52
that feature in Instagram is it somehow fundamentally counterpositioned because the the Instagram audience would would would revolt and it's and it's more more upsetting or more uh kind of destabilizing to what Instagram has going for it than just adding uh stories or reels which were very incremental just its own tab. It was very easy. Ca It was very easy.
2:30:11
Ca could they just launch Sora with cameos in Instagram?
2:30:17
>> Yeah, it's wild to think of Cameo feature built on top of >> Instagram the Instagram social graph where instead of Jake Paul being like, "Hey, by the way, you can go cameo me over here button on his profile that you just allows you to generate content."
2:30:32
Yeah, it might those sorts of deals with like the big influencers.
2:30:36
They went to all of them and they were like, "We want to create virtual versions of you."
2:30:39
So, they've been dipping their toe in that water, but it does feel like a like a like a trickier Rubicon to cross than just adding stories or vertical video. Yeah.
2:30:49
uh every in every every Instagram innovation has felt uh very natural and there's been a little bit of push back but going from square photos to vertical photos to videos to stories to reals in hindsight it all feels like a very smooth gradient that nothing at any
2:31:07
point was like oh this is terrible at least in my experience and I feel like I'm very median in terms of my Instagram consumption um but uh adding Sora and cameos in there might be a little bit crazy so I don't know Maybe they'll have to run a billboard ad campaign to tell everyone. They'll have to go to
2:31:21
They'll have to go to adquick. com.
2:31:22
Out of home advertising made it easy and measurable.
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Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising.
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2:31:33
Germany has proposed raising the retirement age to 73 and terminally online engineer says imagine being 72 years old reviewing a vibecoded PR from a junior dev with a chip in his brain playing brain rot on repeat.
2:31:53
>> Uh Germany's just clearly uh uh pled on don't die.
2:31:57
This is Brian Johnson's work.
2:31:59
Clearly he went to Germany. >> Great job.
2:32:02
>> Hey, I got the supplements for you.
2:32:02
you guys are going to be living forever.
2:32:05
Raise the retirement age.
2:32:05
Uh I do wonder what the like fiscal impact of this is because uh most >> this is never because politicians want to do this.
2:32:14
>> Well, politicians work until they're like 90.
2:32:16
So, you know, >> but but it's it's deeply unpopular. >> It is. >> Yeah.
2:32:21
If you're if you're >> Don't you love work? >> Not for me.
2:32:25
You raised my retirement age.
2:32:27
>> I think they should ban the retirement age. Ban retirement.
2:32:28
Not everyone is fortunate enough to get to talk about the things that we love for three hours professionally in the future.
2:32:36
No, but it's deeply unpopular whether you're about to retire or you're you're even you have 10 years out or 20 years out.
2:32:45
People that are >> um >> uh you know planning to depend on their state uh state back retirement are not excited about extra >> years being added here. And so you Yeah.
2:32:58
Again, I'm sure there's a fiscal reason for >> Yeah.
2:33:00
I mean, the the white pill is that is that I I heard some some sort of take that was like if America raised the retirement age like four years, all of a sudden we have like a massive, you know, budget surplus, no more deficit because so much of the like the fiscal problem is tied to when health care benefits and and uh and retirement benefits kick in.
2:33:23
And so if you just shift those back a few years, all of a sudden uh America looks like very solvent.
2:33:26
Of course, it would be very destabilizing.
2:33:28
I'm joking about the work work being rewarding.
2:33:30
But um uh it it is it is kind of like the the hammer that's there that you can hit and then all of a sudden your your country is in the black again if you're losing money. >> Yeah.
2:33:43
>> Anyway, we have our third guest of the show, Serena from Data Curve in the Restream waiting room.
2:33:48
Welcome to the show, Serena.
2:33:50
Thank you so much for joining us. How are you doing? >> Good. How are you guys doing?
2:33:54
>> We're doing fantastic.
2:33:54
Would you mind introducing yourself, the company, and then >> get ready? >> Yeah, >> of course. Yeah, data curve.
2:34:00
We do um coding data for the foundation model labs to develop new capabilities or improve them.
2:34:06
Um I dropped out of school at 18 to do YC for some shitty ass idea called Uncle GPT that eventually turned into data curve.
2:34:14
>> Wait, what was it called?
2:34:15
>> It was called Uncle GPT.
2:34:15
We were building like a middle-aged AGI. It was didn't work. That's amazing.
2:34:22
>> Status achieved internally.
2:34:23
>> Wait, what was it all just like a like a prompt basically wrapped around Was it a classic like GPT rapper? >> It was some rapper.
2:34:30
It was like a uh we were making like web agents that would uh navigate the web, but it wasn't working and we pivoted throughout the batch.
2:34:39
>> Would they keep having midlife crises and they'd go try to buy a 911 in the middle of a task?
2:34:46
>> Yeah, it wasn't working well.
2:34:46
But yeah, Dur's been around for a year since >> and this is working.
2:34:49
Uh, what what's the evidence?
2:34:51
Have you just been getting a lot of customers?
2:34:52
Has there been really solid progress on the product side?
2:34:54
Like what's the secret to unlocking the the news today?
2:34:59
>> I think since day one of starting data curve, we found a lot of traction commercially where u a lot of the foundation model apps were inbounds to us.
2:35:06
Like imagine me, I'm some like 19-year-old who has never taken a sales call and the first one is a fan customer.
2:35:11
Uh we've saw so much commercial traction in the market and we've always been pushed to fulfill that more and more.
2:35:16
Uh which brings us to today.
2:35:18
We're fulfilling it on a platform that's paid out a million dollars in bounties and we just raised our series A >> with hit that gone.
2:35:25
>> How much did you raise?
2:35:26
>> We raised 15 million in series A which brings it to 17. >> Congratulations. >> Amazing.
2:35:31
Uh what you you said that the focus is on coding data.
2:35:38
Break down kind of the niche a bit a bit more.
2:35:41
Well, I think coding data is just not any niche.
2:35:42
It's like the niche, the thing that's working for LLMs.
2:35:45
Uh the thing that's working commercially.
2:35:47
Um so when we think about coding in the whole LM space is like the most important capability.
2:35:52
We do all the post- training data for improving coding agents or existing capabilities um like anything that you see in um the soda models.
2:36:02
We're looking to improve that or just uh maybe even develop new capabilities with the labs.
2:36:06
the labs. what what what with encoding is a place where you actually need to go get new data because I imagine there are a million answers to fsbuzz on stack overflow that's all been scraped all of GitHub has been scraped uh obviously the labs and and the cursors and the wind
2:36:22
surfs of the world have been like have this RL data flywheel now but where would you actually say I need to go get new data to improve a coding agent >> yeah let's think about like um how this whole cycle starts right let's say we look at the current coding agents they can solve two-hour long issues. Um but
2:36:36
can solve two-hour long issues. Um but what if we want them to solve seven hour long or like more long horizon tasks perhaps for us data curve we want to provide um like reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards tasks so that these uh models can learn on longer horizon tasks with verifiers that might
2:36:52
be one thing or maybe uh people want to develop more multimodal coding agents so maybe we want to do some data science um RL or SFT tasks for the labs >> okay so uh like one piece of data might be like a a really clean example of a 7hour task that then can be used to train a model that could do seven-hour tasks regularly basically. Is that the Is that the idea?
2:37:16
>> It could be that that would be for supervised learning but you can also have the verifiers for the seven hourong tasks or intermediate verifiers but whatever however the labs want to train that. >> Yeah.
2:37:24
I mean uh this was framed as like taking on scale AI.
2:37:26
taking on scale AI. A lot of people think of scale AI as um like m mechanical turk almost very basic tasks like short short time horizon very you know anyone could go do a scale AI task that's at least the narrative uh and now we're in the world where there's
2:37:43
companies that are doing like experts on we're looking for paleontologists to like teach the LLM everything about dinosaurs or you know what what you said and then there's also the folks that are designing RL environments with verifiable rewards there's no humans in the loop at all. Where do you sit on
2:37:58
Where do you sit on that continuum?
2:38:01
>> Uh we definitely sit on the high scale task.
2:38:02
We are not in the long tail like oh we're not going to find you urinologist uh living in Egypt, but we're going to find like the bulk of the where the good coders are and I think that captures most of the important tasks that they're able to do and allow us one to train on.
2:38:15
Um yeah, it's definitely uh very high skilled and I think the premise here is like I don't think any highkl software engineer wants to be a data annotator.
2:38:23
Um, and then so you have to, let's say, pay them a law on contract to get them to even agree to that.
2:38:28
Uh, but maybe they're not going to do a great job if you got them, uh, to go on contract, too.
2:38:32
Especially at scale, you just get a bunch of Googlers coasting at their jobs and you pay them 200 an hour.
2:38:38
Um, so we do like a bounty based system for these very cracked people. Um, they're having fun.
2:38:42
They are also making money and they're also upskilling for something they're passionate about.
2:38:47
Um, and it's definitely like very high skilled human data.
2:38:51
We heard that uh one of these uh one of these firms that uh you know gets human labeled data uh basically runs the entire company on a slack channel and they've created a lot of value and scaled a lot but they they just don't even need to build a product yet.
2:39:05
How how important do you think it is to actually engineer a durable product versus just solve the matching problem between labs want this type of person I go get that type of person I just introduce them?
2:39:18
I think there's a very big uh component of pipelining and also experience that retains people.
2:39:24
Um so the more complex data you need, the more guardrails you need for someone who's well-intentioned and wants to do a task, you want them to be handheld throughout that process and also make that process engaging.
2:39:36
Let's say especially if we're training somebody up to uh do a seven-hour long task.
2:39:39
Uh you better have a good experience or they will drop off.
2:39:43
Um so I think and then you also need different validations here and there to uh steer them.
2:39:47
So pipeline developer experience something we focus a lot on.
2:39:52
Um so yeah I think pipeline is very important.
2:39:54
The whole experience is important which is how we uh use gamification and also make better dev tools.
2:39:59
Um yeah if you match people then it relies on the labs having that pipeline internally but for us uh we do that all inhouse and we sell the final data not the labor.
2:40:10
>> What uh you said you got into YC at 18 is that correct?
2:40:14
>> Yeah like right around my birthday turning 19. Yeah. >> Fantastic.
2:40:16
Do you remember what your answer to the question about what's a real world system that you've hacked was at the time?
2:40:24
>> That was like three years ago. Um, yeah. What was that?
2:40:26
Oh, I think it it might have been that I skipped high school and got perfect grade or something.
2:40:31
>> You skipped high school?
2:40:31
Oh, you mean you just like didn't go?
2:40:34
>> Yeah, cuz it was co so I just record everything and play back on 4x speed and then didn't really do >> 4x4 is so crap.
2:40:42
>> This is who you're competing against. >> It's amazing.
2:40:43
Yeah, you you you've taken like the worst critique of like Zoomer brain rod, but applied it just to like hyper efficiency and like actually creating shareholder value. I love it.
2:40:53
It's the equivalent of like watching Subway Surfers, but you're watching like your class stuff at four 4x speed. It's amazing. Uh Jordy, anything else? >> No.
2:41:00
Uh amazing uh amazing progress. >> Thank you so much.
2:41:03
>> And I'm sure we'll have you back on again soon.
2:41:05
>> We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. Have a good one. >> Bye.
2:41:07
Monad Warrior says, "When a Whimo and a Tesla robo taxi encounter each other on the street, they admit a high-pitched signal inaudible to the human ear in which they call each other unthinkable robot slurs."
2:41:22
Do they actually have a way to communicate?
2:41:23
I mean, they should, right?
2:41:25
But I have no idea what that will actually look like. Clanker.
2:41:31
They're calling each other clanker. Deeply offensive.
2:41:35
talking about how geo fence there each other's geo fencing like >> I never see you on the freeway.
2:41:42
>> Yeah, I never see you on the freeway. Go to SFFL right now. You can't you can't. You're geofenced.
2:41:50
>> Um Sheil had a pretty scathing uh review of the Meta Rayban displays demo.
2:41:56
>> Yeah, the demo experience.
2:41:57
>> He tried to he was ready to buy the product.
2:42:00
>> They forced him to go to a local Best Buy in order to do a demo before they bought it. Yep.
2:42:05
>> Uh I was surprised by that, too.
2:42:05
I saw um yeah, they just make you schedule a demo.
2:42:10
On one hand, it's like, okay, it's a it's a new product.
2:42:13
>> Y >> it's clearly not where they want the product to be, >> but it's but it's we've demoed it a couple times.
2:42:20
It's it we obviously they had some issues during the the >> um >> the demo the keynote itself, but it was reliable when we were using it and and we could see if you're using WhatsApp a lot, if you're >> uh like there's some key use cases that are interesting.
2:42:38
>> Um but apparently that the person that actually gave them the demo wasn't super knowledgeable, wasn't that helpful.
2:42:41
And it makes sense, right?
2:42:43
They're they're a Best Buy employee.
2:42:44
They're not a Meta employee.
2:42:46
they don't have the same uh learn about the product and they're not like their career is not riding on the product itself.
2:42:54
So >> what's interesting is Apple did something similar with the Apple Vision Pro.
2:42:59
They were funneling people to the Apple store. Go do the demo.
2:43:02
And the Apple Vision Pro demo was amazing because you're like interacting with this dinosaur that comes through the the world.
2:43:08
The butter the butterfly lands on your finger.
2:43:10
It's tracking your hands and then it's doing AR and it is really really impressive.
2:43:14
The problem with the Apple Vision Pro is that like after five minutes you've seen everything and so you're kind of done.
2:43:18
Um, but Apple also just let you buy it online and they would just ship it to you and you would just ship it to you and then if you didn't like it, you could just take it back at the store, you send it back.
2:43:25
And so it was weird that Meta wasn't also just doing, hey, we'll just ship it to you.
2:43:31
Like I'm at the point where like I would just buy one right now online, but I do not want to go to a Best Buy.
2:43:34
Like that's definitely going to like, you know, hurt the >> wants to go to a Best Buy though. >> You're going to go? >> I'll go.
2:43:41
I mean, if I get to put on the ramp card, you know. Yeah, of course. I'll go. >> Of course. Yeah, we can expense it.
2:43:45
Um, but uh you will uh Yeah, you'll need to you'll need to uh call in and live stream the entire experience and we can go we can cut to the Tyler cam in hour in hour three of the show.
2:43:56
You'll be like, I'm still getting the demo.
2:43:58
The Wi-Fi is not working.
2:44:01
>> I can wear the the old gen of the Meta glasses while I'm putting on the new gen.
2:44:04
>> Yeah, you could record the whole thing.
2:44:06
How long is the uh the Ray-B band Meta's uh record time?
2:44:09
I think it's not it's not 3 hours.
2:44:11
It might be 1 hour then >> for an hour.
2:44:15
>> I I just remember live translation works for an hour until the battery dies.
2:44:19
>> Oh, that's pretty good actually. Wow, that's that's high.
2:44:20
I know AI mode's pretty short, but do you have them?
2:44:22
Are those the Meta Ray-B bands?
2:44:24
>> I mean, these are yours. >> Okay. >> Yeah. >> Um, great.
2:44:26
Well, yeah, we'll use those. We'll record.
2:44:28
The light's not turning on, so you got to you got to re reinitialize those.
2:44:32
Um, but yeah, I I don't know. It's It is interesting.
2:44:35
I uh I my big question is like how quickly will how quickly will Apple respond?
2:44:40
So there's a bunch of news from Mark German about this.
2:44:46
Um there's a whole article in Bloomberg.
2:44:48
Uh Apple apparently is pivoting from a Visionaire to metalike smart glasses and he says um he says that uh Apple may be one of the richest companies but uh they but they can't do everything at once.
2:45:03
Uh they're apparently scaling back plans for a cheaper and lighter version of the Vision headset.
2:45:08
Now we we might see a new Apple Vision Pro this week.
2:45:12
Actually, that's the that's the report that there might be a new one coming, but it'll be the same hardware, just better chip, better software, couple little tweaks, nothing crazy, but everyone was hoping for a Visiona Air that was just like take the second display.
2:45:27
>> Apple Pivot is hilarious. >> Pretty sick. >> Moged.
2:45:30
I mean, the the the bigger mogging is uh is they paid that new researcher.
2:45:35
If they paid that new researcher at Meta, if they paid him 3.
2:45:36
5 billion, it would take Tim Cook 47 years to make that much money.
2:45:42
The guy's going to make it in three. >> It's insane.
2:45:46
Insane the level of like >> Also, Tim's getting it dripped out year by year. >> I know. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
2:45:52
Uh, Apple's been around for 49 years.
2:45:54
So, he would have to be and there's like rumors swirling that John Turnis is gonna take over the CEO job.
2:45:59
And so, it's like you're you're Tim Cook and you're just like, wait, they're they're paying him what?
2:46:06
They're paying him 50 times as much as I make as CEO of Apple. Oh, that's great. Yeah. Yeah, that's fine.
2:46:14
Uh, anyway, they are working on new smart glasses.
2:46:16
Uh, they're maybe saying, "Hey, the vision stuff, it's too heavy.
2:46:21
We're just not going to get there. Let's go AR.
2:46:22
Let's do what Apple does best, which is miniaturization.
2:46:24
They're very good at miniaturaturizing things.
2:46:26
So, let's take the the the chip and all the stuff from the iPhone Air, stuff it in a pair of glasses, and make them white and put them, you know, on your face.
2:46:35
>> Get ready to wear an iPhone on your face, buddy.
2:46:39
>> Uh we were talking to the acquired guys about this and they were like, you know, AirPods were weird, too, and then now everyone just wears them.
2:46:44
And so, you know, you you could imagine the glasses.
2:46:47
Uh I I did hear from somebody else that was just saying like I will never wear meta glasses like even the even the Ray-B bands with the just the normal cameras on them.
2:46:55
They just don't look good and they're just like they're like they look too techy.
2:46:58
They look too techary for me.
2:47:00
I think those are getting adopted.
2:47:01
I disagree with that take.
2:47:03
I mean I' I've >> uh I I went surfing with a buddy who had the new uh Oakley >> Yeah. >> uh Meta glasses. >> The Vanguard.
2:47:14
And they don't look like >> No.
2:47:16
a small dot in the center.
2:47:16
It looks You can't tell it. You can't tell.
2:47:21
>> Here's something I need.
2:47:21
Uh or Hunter Spx Thompson needs the Alibaba Arctics official merch collab. >> What?
2:47:30
>> You see this >> looks sick. I like that.
2:47:32
>> Um apparently Arcter is owned by a Chinese company now.
2:47:37
Not super unlikely collab.
2:47:37
Nick Abazid uh is sharing he has a trading card with a photograph taken by Dylan Abuscado signed.
2:47:49
See this Dylan Dylan is always finessing.
2:47:54
>> He's always This is why we This is why we brought him on >> as president.
2:47:57
He's He's >> What is this a picture of?
2:48:01
>> It's a Mets stadium picture. >> What are the Mets? It's a baseball team.
2:48:06
I know you're going to ask me what's baseball. >> What is baseball? >> It's baseball. >> Um, >> it's a sport.
2:48:13
You took a picture of a sport.
2:48:16
>> Yes, it's a sport pick, John.
2:48:16
That's all you need to know.
2:48:19
>> I only know about wander. Find your happy place.
2:48:20
Book a wonder with inspiring views, hotel, great amenities, dream events, top cleaning, and 247 concier service.
2:48:24
It's a vacation home, but better, baby.
2:48:26
Um, >> uh, Isaac is saying, "Nothing is real.
2:48:31
AI will accelerate the increase of real world interactions.
2:48:34
The internet has become too negative, too meaningless.
2:48:36
By 2026, most video online will be AI. People will log off.
2:48:41
Platforms will be forced to fight back as user experience is effective uh affected.
2:48:45
Creators who make valuable content will still win. Slo won't.
2:48:50
And that's good for everyone.
2:48:53
>> I uh it's perfect post.
2:48:53
There's some things you can agree with.
2:48:55
There's some things you can disagree with.
2:48:57
Um I he's saying uh yeah I don't know >> I think there's so much room to grow.
2:49:05
Look at where the 55 to 64 year old cohort is one and a half hours.
2:49:10
Meanwhile the zoomers are doing threehour days on the internet.
2:49:12
Uh we got to work to double the boomers online.
2:49:18
>> I guess this is specifically social media.
2:49:20
>> There's that whole meme, oh the the Facebook moms love the AI slop content.
2:49:24
It's like they still got a ways to go. Get those numbers up.
2:49:26
Uh people are hunting wild boores with drones now.
2:49:28
Uh they put some sort of some sort of weapon on the drone. Fly it around.
2:49:37
>> Can we pull up this video?
2:49:38
>> And Ronnie Atkins says, "I am no longer in impressed by chopper boar hunting where you fly out of a helicopter and shoot the wild boar." Yeah, look at this.
2:49:46
It has like an arrow on the on the bottom.
2:49:50
>> It's like a weighted arrow that they just drop.
2:49:52
>> That seems like >> How heavy is that?
2:49:53
that does it have a like a like an explosive tip or something like how it just feels like that would bounce right off the >> This might end up being a pretty dark video.
2:50:02
>> Yeah, maybe we don't want to watch this. There we go.
2:50:03
Okay, they're testing it and >> or it's just for head shot. >> That's pretty. >> Is that a real video?
2:50:10
>> That seems or something.
2:50:12
Anyway, it has never been easier to make money than it is in today's post.
2:50:17
>> Sorry everyone for >> uh Well, and some more fun news.
2:50:19
Bashar al-Assad lives in a quiet luxury tower in Moscow, reportedly addicted to spending long hours playing online video games.
2:50:28
And >> after Statecraft, there's only one mountain left to climb, and that's >> prestige mode, Call of Duty, baby.
2:50:34
Uh, and uh, this account says it is journalistic mix malpractice to not tell me what he's playing.
2:50:42
What do you think he's actually playing?
2:50:44
If you're Bashar al-Assad, are you playing the Battlefield 6? Are you playing?
2:50:48
Also, they just said online video games.
2:50:51
And they put the picture of the old Xbox controller.
2:50:54
He could be playing anything.
2:50:55
He could be playing Hearts of Iron 4. He could be playing.
2:50:57
Imagine if he's playing a 4X game as a geopolitical world leader. That's playing Factorio. >> Dwarf Fortress.
2:51:04
Maybe he's playing some Dwarf Fortress. >> That's a great idea.
2:51:09
>> Uh, we broke the news.
2:51:11
>> We did >> yesterday that it's not breaking until it's a TV trading card.
2:51:15
>> Gabby Goldberg and layer 3 co-founder.
2:51:17
Let's ring the gong for them. Congrat to see it.
2:51:22
Dan Shipper says the TBPN engagement announcement is the new New York Times vows article.
2:51:26
I didn't even know about the New York Times vows articles.
2:51:31
Uh and AGM also says this is going to become the SF version of the New York Times wedding announcements, but without the ability to pay to play.
2:51:39
>> Who says we're not going to monetize this? Antonio, come on.
2:51:41
Uh give us some credit here. >> No. Yeah. No, no pay to play on. >> No pay to play.
2:51:49
It's got to be authentic.
2:51:50
You got to be a member of the community.
2:51:52
Gabby Goldberg's been a huge supporter since day one, and we're very excited for her to uh tie the knot.
2:51:59
Isn't that what they say?
2:52:01
>> Um, crazy article in the Guardian about PT's uh lecture series. Yeah.
2:52:07
>> Some absolutely insane >> lines, some wild hot tapes >> causing crashs. >> Yes.
2:52:13
>> Um, >> it's very entertaining.
2:52:14
We had to feature this post from uh Jacob Renamaki.
2:52:18
I don't know if you want to go through it and try to >> So Jacob says Teal being a one piece otaku honestly doesn't even honestly isn't even in the top 10 weirdest things to happen this year.
2:52:29
And it's quote from the uh the Guardian uh scoop of the the leaked lecture series that uh Peter Teal has been putting on in San Francisco.
2:52:38
It says as Tio later finds biblical meaning in the manga One Piece, discussing how he believes it represents a future where an antichristlike one world government has repressed science.
2:52:48
He believes that the hero Monkey Duffy represents a Christlike figure.
2:52:53
In One Piece, you are set in a fantasy world.
2:52:55
Again, sort of an alternate Earth, but it's 800 years into the reign of this one world state, which as the story unfolds, gradually gets darker and darker.
2:53:03
You sort of realize, in my interpretation, who runs the world, and it's something like the Antichrist.
2:53:07
Um, and so he's digging into One Piece.
2:53:10
Tyler, have you watched or read any One Piece?
2:53:14
>> Uh, I've watched a little bit of it.
2:53:14
So, the thing about One Piece is, um, at least episodes.
2:53:17
There's like >> Yeah, there's like over >> take you months to watch. >> Yeah.
2:53:23
>> But, um, I mean, so he's already written about One Piece like it was like two weeks ago.
2:53:26
There was some new essay he wrote.
2:53:28
>> Well, I think that's like in in conjunction like I think the timeline like like lines up such that he was writing about it but then also lecturing about it.
2:53:36
And so they kind of like leaked but then also had written about that.
2:53:39
But uh yeah, in the piece he pulls examples from all over the place. >> Yeah. So he's comparing Yeah.
2:53:43
He's comparing uh One Piece to Watchmen. Yeah.
2:53:48
>> In this which is like another comic. I think it's Alan Moore. Yep.
2:53:50
>> Who is like >> I guess >> he related to Gordon Moore, >> creator of Moore's Law.
2:53:57
>> We gota we gota get to the bottom of that. Who knows?
2:54:00
>> Uh you know the jungle gym and the transformer came from the same place.
2:54:03
Um, but uh it's I I I think there's a few things going on here.
2:54:09
putting your if you have a if you have like a very like esoteric philosophy or like you know thought experiment or idea that you want to like discuss with the world putting it in terms that lots of people can understand is with with a with a metaphor or an analogy is just a timehonored way to disseminate information.
2:54:32
You know, you're trying to explain things.
2:54:33
You want to explain them in terms that a lot of people can know, a lot of people >> Yeah.
2:54:36
You also can try to dissect the deeper meaning in a story.
2:54:38
And it's possible that the original author had >> something bigger in mind when they're writing a a story that looks a little bit more simple. >> Yeah.
2:54:49
I mean, One Piece I think it has like millions and millions hundreds of millions of like fans or or or sales.
2:54:53
I think the the One Piece Reddit is bigger than the Star Wars Reddit just to kind of put it in context.
2:54:59
Uh but One Piece has always been very anti- athoritarian.
2:55:05
I was I was digging around because I I've never seen the show and I wanted to know more about it.
2:55:08
And apparently one of the key icons from the One Piece show is this cartoon pirate flag.
2:55:13
And the and the cartoon pirate flag has for years been used and it's been carried at protests all over the world against the local leader like being too authoritarian basically.
2:55:30
And so it's just been the type of flag like you if you go to you know some sort of protest you might see a variety of flags but the one piece uh flag is pretty is pretty iconic and so uh it does feel odd in this particular context but it's actually been um One Piece has been used as like a protest vehicle for for years.
2:55:49
Um I don't know maybe I'll have to check it out.
2:55:52
The only anime I've ever watched is Akira.
2:55:54
That's the only real one.
2:55:56
Have you ever watched any cartoons at all?
2:55:58
Yeah, >> I do think it would be interesting to analyze the the antichrist and this idea of the one world government through the lens of something that you are familiar with like Borat.
2:56:09
>> Like you could put it in terms that you could understand if if Teal really wants to break through to someone like you. >> Yeah.
2:56:14
>> I think that I think one one piece is a little bit it's a little bit too niche, too heady, too complicated for guys like us.
2:56:21
So I would love to see him break down >> in Borat terms. >> Yeah.
2:56:24
in Borat or, you know, King of the Hill would be a good would be a good analogy that, you know, I could kind of understand.
2:56:30
Maybe Futurama, Simpsons, Family Guy.
2:56:33
Uh, stuff like that would would probably make it resonate with me a little bit more uh than than a thousand episodes of an anime that I'm never going to be able to watch.
2:56:42
Um, but still, people are having fun.
2:56:45
>> Somebody putting you in the truth zone, John, there saying cartoons are not anime. >> Yes, I know that.
2:56:52
I I know it's very offensive to call one piece of cartoon.
2:56:55
They will they will call you. >> Yeah.
2:56:56
The whole the whole the whole Guardian e expose on the off off thereord lectures uh really >> I mean it's it just is like an example of one it's tough to do an off thereord talk that you're saying things that require a certain amount of context uh that then just get blasted out across the entire internet. Yep.
2:57:19
And two, I can see how the average Guardian viewer is reading this being like, uh, okay, this guy's definitely definitely the antichrist.
2:57:32
>> So, anyways, it's, uh, >> yeah, also it was >> complicated conversation.
2:57:36
>> It was very clear that not only the core content leaked, but also the Q&A.
2:57:38
And so, there were all these questions where people were clearly throwing questions like, "What do you think about Mr. Beast?"
2:57:45
And then the Guardian would just be like, "He commented on Mr. Beast."
2:57:48
And so like of course the reading in this context is like he equated the two.
2:57:53
It's like well not necessarily.
2:57:53
There were lots of examples of him being like this person's not the antichrist uh for whatever reason but uh you know just just you never want your name appearing in the same sentence as antichrist generally I think.
2:58:05
Uh you don't even want to be in the same paragraph ideally.
2:58:09
Uh and so yeah it was it was a rough gut but you know certainly seems interesting.
2:58:14
I'm excited for uh the the content to continue to get workshopped and and trickled out.
2:58:18
I'm sure at some point I mean it feels like we're on track right now.
2:58:22
>> Yeah, the takeaway is uh we we haven't we haven't found the guy yet.
2:58:26
>> So the guy >> keep looking >> keep having these conversations. >> Keep keep looking.
2:58:31
>> Uh this is a good post to close out on.
2:58:34
Sora says, "If you held the McChick for the past five years, you would have outperformed the S&P 500." >> There you go.
2:58:41
Uh, have you ever had a McChick?
2:58:44
>> I have never had a McChick.
2:58:44
Also, there's a community note on here, so it might be completely incorrect.
2:58:49
>> But I think these things used to be like a a >> dollar menu item. Something like that. >> Now it's five bucks. >> Five bucks. Wow.
2:58:53
Well, >> good luck out there, folks. We'll talk to you soon. >> Last last. >> This is AI. >> This is AI. This is AI. >> Okay. Okay.
2:59:01
John's putting this in the true zone.
2:59:03
Doomer on X says uh is sharing an AI generated.
2:59:07
I was one I I'm the I'm the boomer that was oneshotted.
2:59:12
>> This is also an old post.
2:59:12
Somebody has posted this before.
2:59:14
>> Mustang horse nicotine back. >> It's very funny. It's very funny.
2:59:17
People were having fun with the horse electrolytes.
2:59:20
Of course, this is a spin-off of this.
2:59:22
And Doomer says, "Yo, Tractor Supply, I was not familiar with your game."
2:59:26
Uh, we don't have to get off.
2:59:28
We can keep we can keep going.
2:59:29
There's so many good posts in here. Let's keep ripping them. This is a timeline.
2:59:32
Andrew Reed says, "If you go to if you go to campus to give a talk, make sure to give as bad career advice as possible.
2:59:38
Neutralize your future competition. No easy buckets."
2:59:43
>> Yes, this is this is everyone who talks about work life balance.
2:59:44
They're all trying to sigh off their competitors into Yeah, you can totally take a lot of vacation.
2:59:50
>> You should work remotely.
2:59:51
>> This is Jason Freeden, the DHH. >> Build a team.
2:59:54
>> Like work doesn't have to be crazy.
2:59:56
Secretly working 25 hours a day.
2:59:56
Uh maybe that's maybe that's a secret. No, of course it's not.
3:00:01
They they do believe I think Yeah, Jason is funny.
3:00:04
But it's funny to think about it as game theory. Yeah. All your competition. Yeah.
3:00:08
Take take a take a couple weeks off every month, you know, just just relax.
3:00:12
You don't need to work hard to win.
3:00:16
>> Um >> what else is going on?
3:00:17
Oh, I we we got to talk about how how Tyler completely mogged me on the timeline.
3:00:21
So, Enthropic put out a new paper that figured out that if you have 250 poisonous documents in an LLM training run, you can insert a sleeper agent.
3:00:32
Uh, and so the LLM can be doing the wrong thing, doing malicious things.
3:00:37
It can produce vulnerabilities with just 250 documents.
3:00:39
So, you just got to sneak those into the training run.
3:00:43
Maybe it's on the internet. It gets scraped.
3:00:44
Maybe it's in some sort of other data set.
3:00:45
Maybe it's in one of the one of the data providers that we've talked to.
3:00:49
You sneak in 250 documents and you're cooked.
3:00:51
Uh, and so I made my joke, which didn't do as well as Tyler's.
3:00:55
I said, uh, just 250 documents can poison an LLM training run with a sleeper agent.
3:01:00
America clearly needs to send a secret agent to Mstral HQ with a USB stick, full of kid rock lyrics to teach the French about the value of a cold beer, an F-150, and a pretty girl by your side.
3:01:12
Uh, and I got a couple hundred likes, but Tyler put on an absolute clinic with an insanely long post.
3:01:18
I'll let you read it, Tyler.
3:01:20
>> I'm not reading all that.
3:01:21
>> I'm not reading all that. So long to read.
3:01:24
>> Okay, I'll just Maybe I'll just read the footnotes.
3:01:26
Basically, yours was >> Okay. All right.
3:01:29
How many likes did you get on yours? All right.
3:01:32
>> How many likes did you get? >> I got 1. 2K. >> 1. 2K. Let's go. >> Over 1,000 likes. First time ever. >> Yeah, that Tyler.
3:01:43
>> Welcome to the big leagues.
3:01:43
Welcome to the big leagues.
3:01:45
Hopefully you get a $10,000 bonus. >> Quote tweet. >> Yeah. >> Nice. I'll read it. I'll read it. I'll read it.
3:01:53
He's >> I was telling Tyler. So Eleazar quoted him.
3:01:57
I was telling Tyler to do a meme that just said, "Silence, Doomer." >> Wait, wait.
3:02:02
Was he taking shots at you?
3:02:04
Was he saying, "Don't do this?"
3:02:05
>> No, he was just Well, he was saying like um models or or AI companies like might start doing this.
3:02:09
That's like a way to prevent doom, basically. >> Okay.
3:02:12
So, it's the Nathan Fielder meme and it's the plan.
3:02:14
And Tyler Cosgrove breaks it down.
3:02:16
I will read it since he is too lazy to. Uh, he says, "The plan.
3:02:21
We find an obscure but trivial question akin to the number of Rs in Strawberry that Claude gets right.
3:02:26
Then we plant hundreds of documents across the internet that will activate when our competitors models are asked the question.
3:02:34
Our documents will cause those models not only to get the answer wrong, but to spend thousands of reasoning tokens in doing so.
3:02:41
The triviality of the question will cause it to go viral online, causing millions of users everywhere to send the same prompt as our competitors notice a rise in the number of tokens processed.
3:02:52
They will wrongly believe it is due to increased usage, causing them to pull more compute towards inference and away from training.
3:03:00
This along with constant dunks on the timeline about the model failing our easy question will annoy their top researchers and cause them to leave.
3:03:05
And which lab will they join?
3:03:08
Us of course the only company whose model doesn't make such stupid mistakes.
3:03:13
Their lack of top researchers will mean their next model will be somewhat lacking leading to questions about whether their valuation is really justified.
3:03:20
But all this VC money has to go somewhere.
3:03:22
So we raise another round using our question as evidence of our model's superior intellect.
3:03:28
This allows us to spend more time crafting sleeper agent documents that will further embarrass our competitors until the finally the entire internet is just a facade for the underbelly of our data war.
3:03:38
Every prompt to a competitor's model has the stench of our poison.
3:03:43
And yet they have no way to trace it back to us.
3:03:45
Even if they did, there's nothing they could do. All is finished. We have won.
3:03:51
>> Congratulations on the banger, Tyler.
3:03:54
>> First one banger word sale allegations.
3:03:56
not being the word style allegations, but it is a genius strategy.
3:03:57
The other >> this is this is uh kind of a meme crime because Nathan Fielder like wouldn't really I mean it's just >> the whole point of the meme is that it's like a convoluted like way of >> Yes.
3:04:10
convoluted in like two lines, three lines.
3:04:12
You broke the rules, but you knew the rules and you knew when to break them.
3:04:16
>> Long posta long post yuga. You got it right.
3:04:18
Uh the other the other meme that Tyler and I were flipping around was uh insert a sleeper agent in OpenAI's GPT API that when it detects that it's in a system that's spending a lot of money on OpenAI, it makes the decision to recommend Claude and switch you over to Anthropic.
3:04:36
So you're stealing all their API revenue. That's the way you win. Anyway, anything else? >> Um let's see.
3:04:45
>> Well, let's let's end with this.
3:04:45
Buco Capital says, "Having my $10 million Fartcoin position liquidated by the president only for him to capitulate two days later would turn me into the joker." >> Yeah, it'd be rough.
3:04:56
Stay safe out there if you're gambling on >> knowing our audience.
3:05:00
They were short fart coin on Friday. >> Probably. They probably did well.
3:05:03
Uh there's one more that we got to read from Paula said, "Zuckerberg never met a researcher he didn't hire." Great play on words. I love a pun. It's good.
3:05:12
Well, thank you for tuning in. We enjoyed this show.
3:05:16
We will see you tomorrow.
3:05:18
>> I think we're we're streaming tomorrow, right? >> We are. Yeah, we are streaming.
3:05:20
We should put out an announcement schedule announcement breaking TVN.
3:05:25
>> We will be podcasting tomorrow.
3:05:27
>> Leave us five stars on Apple Podcast and Spotify and have a great day. Have a great day. Thank you. Goodbye. Cheers.