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>> The TVPN road to Christmas is continuing day by day. We're 91 days away. So >> that's right. >> Get ready. Get excited. Uh Christmas is coming. It's around the corner.
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>> Great weekend to pick up a tree >> if you can find one >> and struggle to keep it alive for three months. >> Yeah, maybe.
5:23
I mean, some some operators I know are actually cycling through multiple trees on the road to Christmas.
5:31
>> Some operators uh yeah, it's like that Chinese proverb, the best day to plant a tree 10 years ago.
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The best day to the second best day is today. You know, get started.
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The best day to get a Christmas tree was 10 years ago.
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The second best day today.
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No matter when it is only 91 days away, so get ready.
5:48
Uh anyway, MetaConnect yesterday uh late uh Zuck likes going late.
5:54
He 4 PM Pacific, 7 PM Eastern for the keynote.
5:59
>> Well, because he wanted to roll straight from the keynote into some beer punk. >> Oh, that's true.
6:03
We will get into that big hot debate on the timeline over his beer pong strategy.
6:06
But, uh really really tight keynote, very well organized, uh very clear, didn't overstay its welcome.
6:14
Uh did three live demos last year.
6:17
there was a hiccup with a live demo Wi-Fi and I believe Bos triggered everyone's agents by using the wake word.
6:26
So this time he deliberately stayed away from using that wake word and used like the name of his agent.
6:30
So he didn't cause a lot of chaos in the in the dome or in the in the studio wherever they were.
6:37
Um but bunch of great announcements, really good pacing.
6:42
um really tight 1-hour keynote and uh it it was it was fun watching uh Zuck like sort of do the live demos and be like one down like this is high stakes like it was clearly high stakes for him but he got through it all. No mistakes. >> Yeah. He had a funny line.
6:57
He was like and we love live demos here. >> Yeah.
7:00
It's funny cuz like he totally could just not do live demos but he like wants to so he pushes through it. >> I think you need to. >> Do you?
7:09
>> I think you absolutely need to.
7:09
People have bought so many random hardware devices that haven't met expectations. >> Yeah.
7:16
And I guess there was >> hardware if you want people to buy it, you have to do a live demo. >> Yeah.
7:19
There was a there was a demo of a uh Gemini model running like two years ago that was like sped up in post and and and that faced a lot of criticism and so I think yeah just demoing things um as they are available in the real world is is uh very valuable.
7:34
And I think in general like the thesis for the products was like meet people where they are delivering tomorrow's technology with today's constraints.
7:44
And that's just what I kept seeing as a theme was like what do people want?
7:48
And of course the best uh it basically created a huge dichotomy between uh like the the the crazy super intelligence RSI ASI Poom Xrisk uh crew and then just like Muse. It's a helpful agent.
8:04
Uh, Nirage Agarwal summed it up well. Anthropic marketing.
8:09
We We built a god only we built a god only we can control and gave it a wet lab. Muse marketing.
8:14
Hey girl, I know you have dozens of unpaid parking tickets.
8:18
Let's get that cleaned up.
8:18
And uh it's it's funny because it's it's actually working.
8:23
I think that if you went back to a couple months ago um the the the consensus was like popularity of AI is turning. it's deeply unpopular.
8:36
You need to just be quiet or not lean in or just like apologize like what a lot of the lab leaders are doing, just being like, "Yeah, it is bad. I'm sorry."
8:44
Uh, but Meta has taken a very different approach.
8:49
They're not fear-mongering.
8:50
They're just like, "It's cute. It's lovable."
8:51
And uh, and they actually are successful.
8:54
I mean, the New York Times yesterday, Jensen and Ezra are duking it out over like X- Risk and and acceleration. Do we need to slow down?
9:02
Meanwhile, the New York Times published like a a really positive review of Muse.
9:07
They like they love it and like they're a tough cookie to like win over basically. So, uh success there.
9:11
Um and it's interesting because uh it's been there's been a few strikes for Meta over the past two years.
9:20
Uh the vertical AI slop app Vibes quickly disappeared.
9:23
I don't even know if it's available anymore.
9:27
might have been quietly shuttered or tucked behind a couple different uh tabs.
9:31
Uh the core meta chat app that was sort of just like a Gemini a chat clone.
9:36
I don't think that ever really took off.
9:39
>> Over over the last year, you have massive spending clearly massive focus for Meta, but the strategy was at most times completely incoherent. >> It was scattered.
9:48
>> It was not legible to the markets.
9:48
It was not legible to >> do everything. Yeah.
9:54
You had nothing really, you know, Muse uh code.
9:56
You had them buying and then having to undo the Manis acquisition. You had Oh, yeah. >> the meta vibe.
10:03
The first thing, and again, this this was an unforced error.
10:07
The first thing that they did post the whole talent raid was release like the short form slop video app, which wasn't even >> It was midourney. Yeah.
10:16
It was basically a midjourney rapper. >> Yeah.
10:20
And we were and everyone was like, "Okay, like this doesn't align to the to what you're putting out, which is this like personal super intelligence narrative."
10:28
And so really yesterday like everything felt like >> it came together really nicely, right?
10:36
Tying in all all the hardware investments, >> uh tying in personal making personal super intelligence feel a bit more real, right? Totally.
10:45
AI that that hustles for you.
10:47
I think I think that's smart. Yeah.
10:50
uh positioning, but it really felt like things came together for the first time.
10:55
>> Um, and I wouldn't necessarily go so far as to give them full credit as uh like if you were really going to give them full credit for like this was the master plan all along, then there's a bunch of other stuff you wouldn't have done unless you were just trying to confuse the market. Yeah.
11:09
>> If you're trying to just confuse people, are we doing coding? Yeah.
11:11
Are we are we doing, you know, a knowledge work harness?
11:14
Are we doing short form slop? Right.
11:17
Um and and so I think it was >> you're not giving him the benefit of the 4D chess. >> No. Okay. >> No, no, no.
11:23
Um but >> going out razoral credit 4D razor >> total credit to them for like figuring out how all the pieces connect together. Yeah.
11:33
>> And then putting that in a 1-hour presentation that actually like makes sense.
11:38
>> So what are the pieces that come together?
11:39
Why does it make sense for Meta's business?
11:41
Why are they seeing success here when the models haven't jumped to the frontier?
11:46
jumped to the frontier? the benchmarks have always been a little there's been a lot of confusion on are they going to sell compute sell tokens uh sell you know go after the coding market uh desktop agents all these different things that they were uh testing uh this
12:00
seems to be working and I think there's sort of four key points that come together to make this make sense so um first is like they have scaled and secured systems for years encryption is a great example they have a lot of compute and so they can offer a VM for millions of people that is secure and also well resourced. Uh and they won't
12:20
Uh and they won't be losing sleep over cost because they already have a lot of the compute built out.
12:26
And the question was like when will the demand come?
12:29
Are those are those GPUs sitting idle?
12:32
Are those is that infrastructure getting used efficiently?
12:37
They're building a lot more of it. Uh do they need to?
12:39
Well, they got to find a product to actually distribute all that through and it seems like they have.
12:42
uh two was uh they have the distribution to continually educate people about features and benefits of Muse through big ad placements across the family of apps.
12:51
I think that there is the there is the world where they've been able to funnel uh what like half a billion people over to threads.
12:58
It's not a particularly differentiated app.
13:02
Obviously, it's a different different community and it's and it's done well, but it's a different challenge because with with threads you can just show someone a text post.
13:10
People know what that looks like. It's more content. They go over there. Job's finished.
13:14
Once you show someone, all you need to show is that their community exists over there.
13:20
They're scrolling Instagram watching basketball highlights and you say, "Hey, there's some basketball commentary going on in threads." You hop over there.
13:25
With all the AI agent products, the capabilities change so rapidly that you have to re-educate the consumer on what it's capable of.
13:33
Like, can it actually deal with parking tickets?
13:35
Like, if it can, you need to confidently tell someone that.
13:38
And that capability might change.
13:41
It might it might not work.
13:41
one week and then the model updates and then all of a sudden you can do that the next week.
13:46
And so uh Chad GPD came out and it was like it can answer Google searches, it can do your homework.
13:52
Then it was like it can write some code and there's this constant like re-education of the community.
13:59
Obviously the early adopters, the enterprise, the business, the startup community tests everything, but consumers don't.
14:05
consumers just they they need to be told the new iPhone has an ultrawide camera.
14:10
The new iPhone has mmoji.
14:12
Even though mmoji was not a wildly popular feature, Apple told everyone what it was. We know what it is.
14:18
Everyone sort of knows uh that that concept because they ran billboard campaigns and Meta has the ability to actually go and tell everyone what Muse is capable of and run an ad campaign across the whole platform to get people back up to speed on the latest and greatest feature.
14:35
Um the third is that uh no one needs their >> says deal quote deal with parking tickets hack me out of it then we are talking. Well, well, no, no.
14:43
So, the so the thing is is that they are behind on the frontier.
14:47
They're they're they're not dominating all the benchmarks, but it actually doesn't matter because no one needs their personal AI agent to solve the Millennium Prize math problem or secure their enterprise infrastructure from cyber attacks.
14:59
Like, that's not a requirement.
15:01
The model is definitely good enough for a lot of this.
15:05
They obviously will increase the model and and the capabilities, but it's not it's not what consumers worry about.
15:12
Consumers don't care about benchmarks.
15:14
They don't understand them.
15:14
The benchmarks are often hacked or or not indicative of the feel of using a model.
15:20
And so, uh, it it leans into the capabilities.
15:23
They have near fear near frontier intelligence.
15:26
They have good enough intelligence.
15:27
And so, if it's good enough to do this, you just roll out the capability and the harness is what matters.
15:32
The integration, the distribution, that's what matters.
15:34
So, they they did they actually didn't launch watermelon.
15:37
They've been teasing that for a while. There's been some leaks.
15:40
It totally could have happened here, but they made the decision to either not rush it because maybe it does just need more time, but also even if it was ready, I don't think they should have launched it here because Metacon's not for that audience. They they don't care. Yeah.
15:54
The >> watermelon might scare people. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
15:57
You probably don't want it to be too powerful.
15:58
Um and then fourth, they of course already have a business model that's heavily aligned with this type of use case. Advertising.
16:08
We've talked about this idea that uh brands would love to sponsor agentic workflows.
16:13
You open up a personal AI agent and it says, "Hey, you know, the new Nathan Fielder movie is coming out in a couple months.
16:20
I saw that you were scrolling reels.
16:23
You seem to be a fan of this.
16:25
You shared the movie trailer with your friend.
16:27
Do you want me to get tickets, text some of your friends, share it on WhatsApp, share it in your Instagram DMs, and actually make that happen?
16:37
send a calendar invite, do everything necessary to take care of that.
16:40
And I think movie studios are just one example of a business that would happily pay for placement, for extra attention around that particular workflow that they can monetize through the traditional pathway.
16:51
Uh, and then of course like small businesses will buy pixels anywhere.
16:56
So, you know, if you open it up and there's a full bleed ad, uh, like that's fine and people will pay for that. So, >> yeah.
17:02
The other the other kind of examples I get pretty crazy is your personal agent, for example, knows that you have uh home insurance that's set to renew in 3 months and it's like, do you want me to go get three competing bids before we renew >> and it's like yes, right?
17:18
And that that's like a uh >> opportunity for for some type of paid placement as well. >> For sure.
17:25
So, the vibes, not the app, but the actual vibes at Meta Internally, how are the employees feeling?
17:32
I feel like this is a turning point.
17:32
I feel like if you're at Meta, you're like, "Okay, finally there's a thing to align around. We have a strategy.
17:36
As long as I do something that's in in in support of Muse and what's going on with the personal super intelligence mission that the CEO and founder has laid out, I'm good.
17:48
Even if I'm on Facebook Marketplace team and I feel like I'm going to get steamrolled because of the Nikita Beer take that everyone's going to be negotiating and lowballing on Facebook Marketplace."
17:57
Well, the Facebook Marketplace team, they can say, "Okay, well, now we're going to build tools for sellers to make that not annoying."
18:04
And so, there's more work to be done and it's more aligned with the overall mission. The vibe should be good.
18:10
At the same time, The Verge ran a story that said the verbs the the vibes are internally way off still at Meta that people are upset about the scattershot nature of the approach, that they're they're still reeling from like the metaverse misadventures.
18:22
But I I feel like that was that was like the last hit piece you could write about Meta.
18:28
And I think things >> hard to be feeling that bad when the stock's up 38% in the last month. >> Yeah.
18:34
Um and so I think I think it's pretty pretty easy to align all the efforts across uh what's happening personal super intelligence and even if you were on like the glasses team there's a whole narrative of like well you were trying to build VR you came you were in the division that was building the cool Oculus stuff.
18:49
It's evolved and now it's kind of just a GoPro on your face.
18:53
There's been some negative, oh, these are just for, you know, people to spy on each other, blah, blah, blah.
18:58
But now they even have a version without cameras and it's very aligned to what the users want.
19:03
And so the the the the the topline hero initiative, even if you're like just on the glasses team and you're like, "Oh, like they're building the data center and that's not really anything to do with me or they're working on a coding model and like that's not really relevant to like getting more people to wear the the the the Oakleys or or the Meta Ray-B bands.
19:25
Uh well, now now you are aligned.
19:25
Now you are on the same team.
19:27
You're you're rowing in the same direction."
19:29
And so I would expect the vibes to uh to get better.
19:33
I I I think um and uh yeah, this is all good news.
19:36
Super reflected in the timeline.
19:38
Uh but I'm even more excited about the VR glasses.
19:42
That was the highlight for me.
19:44
It was the one more thing.
19:46
Uh I was hoping that we'd get a new VR headset last year. We didn't.
19:49
And no one was speculating that this would drop this year, but it did.
19:53
And it's very, very cool.
19:57
So, the headline is uh uh 1,300 bucks VR glasses.
20:00
It's a hundred grams, which is the the weight of a pack of deck of cards.
20:05
Um, and uh, if you go back, John Carmarmac was the Cto of Oculus, working with Palmer Lucky.
20:15
He came into Meta through the acquisition.
20:16
He's the creator of Doom.
20:18
Legendary computer scientist now running Keen working on AI. He wound up leaving.
20:24
Uh, very, very disappointing to not have him realize his his vision there at the company.
20:29
Um, and he had been pounding the table at Meta.
20:31
Uh, and actually I there were some leaks and there was like, oh, this is like a source of frustration because his his goal and his mission was to get to 100 grams for the headset, very light at $100.
20:43
He said it needs to be cheap and light and then it can go everywhere.
20:48
Then you can see mass adoption and then you'll get the developer ecosystem, etc.
20:52
Uh, obviously $1,300 is not $100.
20:55
There's been a lot of inflation, but not that much inflation.
20:58
Um, but it is half the price of the Apple Vision Pro.
21:01
Basically, you're in a more accessible territory.
21:06
>> Half the price of specs. >> Oh, yeah.
21:08
It's half the price of specs.
21:10
And it's uh I think it's less than 1% the price of a Ferrari Luch. So, yeah, there's that.
21:16
If you're if you're in the market, you can just put that on and imagine that you're driving a electric Ferrari.
21:21
Um but uh uh >> the glasses and the car sound the same. >> Oh yeah. They're both very quiet.
21:26
Um but he but he pitched it as three key things.
21:30
It's a cinema, it's a workstation, and it's a gaming console.
21:34
You can play VR head VR games on it.
21:34
I >> So I almost felt like they were listening or just like same uh line of thought as um uh Ben Thompson because they're rolling out a bunch of like a hundred experiences. It sounds like a year. >> Yeah.
21:48
where you're going to be able to get some entertainment, live entertainment value from your headset >> and specifically sports.
21:55
>> Sports sit anywhere in the stadium. >> Yes. Yeah. Yes. Yes.
21:57
And you can pick your seat.
21:59
And I don't think they will be doing the crazy frenetic editing or the cut downs.
22:02
Uh they have a great deal with UFC.
22:04
Obviously, Dana White's on the board.
22:06
Uh but it seems like they also rolled out partnerships with so many other uh leagues to get that there.
22:10
Uh, they also put the the the compute and the battery pack on a on a on a puck that you wear on your belt. I love that design.
22:20
It was very controversial, very unApple when Apple Vision Pro did it and everyone was like Steve Jobs never would have stood for this.
22:27
Well, like that's the reality of the technology.
22:28
It doesn't make sense to put a battery on your face and so put it on put it in your pocket.
22:34
Uh, I've never had a problem with the way the Apple Vision Pro works with the tether.
22:38
Uh, and they did a good job in the in the promotional videos of like hiding the puck, like you can't even see it there.
22:44
Uh, so they're clearly uh aware that you want to forget about it.
22:49
And I think in the best case, you actually can. So very good there.
22:53
The >> other, >> sorry, >> other dynamic uh tabletop typing.
22:55
So if you have a flat surface in front of you, >> bad, >> bad, >> bad. No one wants to do that. >> G says it's insane.
23:05
>> I don't think I don't think it'll >> I trust him with my life. >> Okay. Okay.
23:07
Maybe >> I I I think people will either connect this to a to a computer and just be using their computer or they'll just be using voice.
23:16
I I think that that's like a half measure like the writing and I think I think it won't be it'll be 99% of the way there.
23:24
So in a demo you'll be like ah this is pretty good.
23:26
But if you're thinking about actually wearing this for work hours a day you'll be like yeah let me get a $20 keyboard. It has tactile feedback.
23:36
Like you can actually feel the keys uh the keys move. Uh I don't know.
23:41
It's good that they did it.
23:42
Like it it's clearly cool. It's possible.
23:44
Uh and especially if you're in a situation where you can't bring a keyboard or a laptop like that makes a lot of sense.
23:51
That is a glimpse into the future.
23:53
I would be surprised if that has uh if that's the dominant input uh the input uh like way people input stuff.
24:01
They'll either just talk to it because the voice models are good or they'll be locked in at a computer with an actual keyboard.
24:09
>> This is an awesome step forward to, you know, humanity living inside a world owned and controlled and monitor by Mark Zuckerberg. >> Yeah. The wireheading future. Yeah.
24:18
No, no, no PDM around wireheading.
24:20
That is one of the X-risk things.
24:22
Remember, don't forget about that.
24:25
It's not just bioweapons.
24:26
It's also we all turn inward and lock into the VR worlds and then stop reproducing and that's the end of humanity.
24:34
>> The battery is only 3 hours though so you can't even watch all of Lawrence Arabia.
24:36
Like how how can you be wire heading in?
24:38
>> Uh it's very easy because that puck you plug it in. >> You plug it in.
24:43
Uh and that's what you do when you have the USBC.
24:45
Um the USBC is also really important because uh Palmer Lucky was in the promotional video and he's he's getting his mind blown.
24:52
He's saying they you can do display port over USBC.
24:54
And what that means is that you'll be able to just take a USBC cable from your laptop into the into the actual puck.
25:00
It's charging your device and then also you're getting zero latency because the latency of having to go from screen sharing on your computer to your Wi-Fi router back to your glasses in Apple Vision Pro.
25:12
I was trying to game on it.
25:14
I was did all these crazy things to try and wire up a PlayStation into it. It was a huge hassle. Never really worked.
25:19
There was always a ton of latency.
25:20
Uh, this this cures that.
25:22
I'm not exactly sure how the the game consoles support USBC, but I know all the Mac products do really really easily display port over USBC.
25:32
So, it looks like a USBC cable, but it's basically an HDMI cable.
25:34
Uh, so zero latency and so you just get a huge screen with whatever you want on it.
25:38
So, it doesn't matter if the developers don't show up.
25:42
And they didn't bring GTA 6 to the Meta VR glasses, which are probably going to sell less than a million units in the short term and it doesn't come out for six months.
25:50
But um will you be able to play GTA 6 on this thing? Absolutely, right?
25:54
Because it has Display Port.
25:56
And so if you want that experience, it'll be available to you.
26:00
It won't be a fully immersive VR experience.
26:02
But if you're someone who only has $1,300 and can't afford a movie theater or can't doesn't even have space for a huge TV, you get this.
26:09
You plug it into a laptop or a gaming console and you have a movie theater uh available to you.
26:17
So uh very very excited to try it.
26:19
very disappointed that doesn't come that that they have to wait until spring of 2027. That's a long way away.
26:23
Uh but the road to Meta VR glasses begins today.
26:25
So start counting down 180 days or so.
26:28
When when is the end of spring? When would that be?
26:32
Uh I guess the end of spring is what? May, right? Then summer starts.
26:35
So So we're up in like 230 days or something like that.
26:41
But um it'll be it'll be fun to see what people actually do with it.
26:46
It's still the dominant platform for developers in VR even though everyone's pivoting.
26:52
>> I think that's interesting to me positioning of of it being a computer. >> Yeah.
26:58
>> Uh it's a small like tweak, right?
26:58
I don't remember them ever calling previous devices like this is a computer.
27:04
No, >> but it's easier for people to kind of imagine it as hey this is a device that I can do a bunch of stuff.
27:10
>> And this is the thing with the iPhone.
27:11
like the iPhone was a phone, a an iPod, and an internet communicator, basically a web browser.
27:17
Um, and it was like, we know that at the very least people like phones, so if we can be as good as a phone as what they have right now, and so it's like, if we can be as good as a home theater, then people will buy it.
27:30
then people will buy it. And so instead of trying to purely position it as like this entirely new thing metaverse that you live in and VR and everything's immersive and it's full full like immersion uh instead you're like this can replace your triple monitor display and you're like ah you know what I was
27:47
in the market for a triple monitor display was going to be two grand across three monitors why don't I pick up this instead and if they can deliver on that I still think this might be V1 and and it might be the second one that that actually gets the breakout success and and really broad adoption. Uh the
28:01
Uh the >> Yeah, he did say this is a glimpse of the future and anytime you hear that, >> you're kind of thinking, okay, like I'm going to get some cool demos and it's not going to be dailying it.
28:14
>> Yeah, I mean it'll take take a while for the ecosystem, but it was the same thing with the iPhone.
28:17
Like the first iPhone didn't have an app store, didn't have 3G, uh but it kicked off the beginning of of a big revolution, and this feels like it could be that.
28:25
Also, the the pixel density, they haven't shared the exact specs.
28:29
It feels like it might be 5K per eye, which is about 53% about half as much as the Apple Vision Pro.
28:36
So, there's a there's a world where in six months we're talking about ah it's still not that high fidelity to actually do work on for a full day.
28:45
A lot of people are running 5K for a single monitor that's only, you know, in this much of your vision.
28:52
you're talking about 5K spread over your full field of vision could be a little bit of a setback, but I think that that is something that definitely gets resolved on the next iteration.
29:01
Uh because the display technology, >> what do we think about hologram calling?
29:07
>> Let's discuss it after I tell you about the New York Stock Exchange.
29:09
Want to change the world?
29:10
Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. Uh I think it's cool.
29:16
They they they did legs in VR.
29:18
It's very difficult to do legs in VR.
29:20
Bos took the victory lap on that and I think it blew people away. I think it's cool.
29:25
I think uh I I did an Apple Vision Pro call with someone who got one the same week.
29:31
Uh it didn't really it never really took off because there was never a broad install base.
29:36
It's all it's all based on like do they sell millions and millions of these things.
29:40
Um, it's always been hard for for Facebook to develop like a new network that requires hardware distribution.
29:49
It's much easier to to go from a friend in real life to we're texting each other.
29:55
We have each other's emails and then we're also sending Instagram reels to each other on DMs.
30:00
Much harder to be like, "Oh, did you get the device?
30:02
Oh, I no I don't have it.
30:05
Oh, I don't have it set up." You know?
30:06
Um, but of course you can you can portal into someone with uh with just WhatsApp or or or anything else. So does seem good.
30:14
>> Well, there's one thing that is 100% sure which is that you will be buying these and I will not >> that is 100% true.
30:22
Um, let me tell you about console.
30:26
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30:33
Um, let's go through the timeline.
30:36
react to some of the reactions. Mark German loves it.
30:39
He says they're incredible.
30:41
Half the price of the Vision Pro, 16th the weight external pack. He's stoked on it.
30:46
Um, what else is going on?
30:50
They launch in spring 2027.
30:52
The interface is basically the same as the Vision Pro, but it has an absolutely bonkers tabletop virtual keyboard that blows the Vision Pro keyboard out of the water.
31:00
Yeah, cuz the Vision Pro keyboard like hovers there.
31:01
You're not supposed to really use it.
31:03
It's a terrible keyboard.
31:05
Um, uh, but also I I don't the the the tough tough thing with a keyboard is like the the the moments when I was using VR, I wanted to be on a couch.
31:16
I wanted to be on a on like a a chair that didn't necessarily have like a flat surface in front of me.
31:22
So, it requires a little bit of a different workflow to to go actually go to the coffee shop and sit down at the table and have a flat surface in front of you.
31:31
Um, so there were the with the Apple Vision Pro, there was never a moment where I was like, "Oh, I would love to be able to put this down onto uh a flat surface because I usually wouldn't use it on a flat surface." So, we'll see.
31:43
We'll see how that we'll see how that goes out.
31:46
Um, what else is in here?
31:46
I underestimated Zuck's game.
31:48
Ryan says, "It's a hearing aid.
31:51
You can't tell me I can't wear my metagasses anymore or else you'll be going against ADA, the Americans with Disability Act."
31:57
I don't know that that's actually what's going on here, but that is sort of crazy that there's all this backlash to smart glasses.
32:05
Maybe there will be uh a next wave of like restaurants and bars that say no, you can't wear those there.
32:10
But if you say no, it's my hearing aid. You can't.
32:15
That's some that's some 4D chess.
32:17
Are you giving Are you giving Mark Zuckerberg the benefit of AAM's 4D razor on this one?
32:24
>> No, I just think it's I think it's cool.
32:26
>> I think it's just cool and independent.
32:27
I don't think it's actually looking >> pair of uh I was meeting meeting with a an older friend the other day and his hearing aid setup was like this like you know it seemed like kind of clunky and if he could just throw on he was wearing glasses if he could have just thrown on a >> pair of glasses and be like cool I'm I'm in business that would have been awesome.
32:46
So I think again what uh many people forget about glasses is that smart glasses are way more appealing if you have a need for them outside of just wanting smart glasses.
32:56
So if you just want uh you know if you need help with your vision or you need help with your hearing I think these are going to have much stronger product market fit. >> Yeah.
33:05
Let me tell you about Figma agents meet the canvas your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context.
33:11
Uh don't you think if you're wearing if you're wearing camera glasses VR or AR you know metaray bands and it has a camera there it should be it can see your hands right? It can see your elbow.
33:24
So, if you were playing beer pong, it could tell you, "Hey, back up.
33:28
You're going to lose a point."
33:32
>> It could go to your agent and and kick off an agentic workflow to schedule you with a professional beer pong coach, have them come to your house and do hours and hours of drills so that you never make that mistake.
33:44
So, >> is this vapor wear if it if it didn't happen?
33:48
because we saw Mark Zuckerberg get caught with his elbow over the line >> table beer beer pong.
33:55
Um I >> I just don't understand why glasses smart glasses CEOs go out in public without wearing the smart glasses.
34:06
>> Oh, he's not wearing them.
34:07
>> And it's like Evan Evan is doing interviews all the time without you know wearing, you know, >> speaking, you know, at places like Sun Valley, not wearing the glasses.
34:15
Zach is, you know, all the time out in public doing things, not using the glasses.
34:19
I mean, they they make clear versions of them, right?
34:24
So, if if the glasses are if the products so good and everyone should buy them, shouldn't you have them on at least half the time that you're out socializing?
34:33
>> I personally think if if you see Jensen at a conference, he should be having an NVL72 in a backpack.
34:37
He should have a rack and he should be carrying it around. No.
34:42
Uh, I did notice uh so he was wearing a very uh special watch and everyone's obsessed with Mark Zuckerberg's watch collection.
34:49
He always debuts a new unique piece every time he's on stage.
34:54
But I think the watch thing it's getting a little old.
34:56
I would like to see him get into cars a little more and I'd like to see him drive on to on stage on like uh you know a Gordon Murray T50 >> and do and burn and do a quick burnout. >> Quick burnout. Yeah, exactly.
35:09
something to show that he's not a he's not onedimensional.
35:14
He's not just into watches.
35:16
He's also into very special cars. Pull up in a turbion.
35:18
You know, you got the turbion on your wrist.
35:21
Why not the Bugatti turbion?
35:22
Drive into the onto the stage. Get out. Uh, no.
35:25
My hot take about this uh beer pong elbow violation is I don't care about these.
35:31
I think that people who play beer pong and worry about elbow violations are pedantic and annoying.
35:39
And I think that it violates the spirit of the game.
35:42
So I think that there's no problem with this at all.
35:46
I think if you're the type of person that's like, "Oh, you you put your elbow over your nerd and you're not having fun and you're ruining the fun for everyone."
35:54
And it doesn't actually make that much of a difference whether you threw from two inches forward or two inches back.
36:00
It's >> I mean it does make a difference, John.
36:03
It makes a massive difference.
36:03
Yes, but but spirit like the gentleman the gentleman is not.
36:08
You might address it if it's habitual clearly.
36:13
>> Shane is bringing Shane is bringing up the bunky in the chat.
36:15
I think Zuck is going to have to get a proper setup.
36:18
Get down in the bunky, >> spend two, three years in the bunk beer >> pong. Okay. Yeah.
36:25
No, I I think the I think I think the gentleman's beer pong game uh cannot it doesn't need to be policed on a shotby-shot basis.
36:33
If there's a habitual stepping of the line and and and it's actually creating a an unfair advantage because one person is is uh is following that particular rule and the other person is is clearly violating it for increased performance, then yes, it's worth calling out.
36:52
But one minor shot Slightly over the line. I don't care about it.
36:59
>> I think cheating is wrong. >> Oh, okay. You You hold the line.
37:03
>> Law and order guy over here.
37:05
>> Look, I You got to respect the spirit of the game.
37:06
You can't break the rules.
37:08
>> Yeah, but then you can wind up in this thing of being, oh, you were 2 mm over it.
37:12
Turns it into >> I mean, this is blatant. >> It's blatant.
37:15
>> It's not that blatant. It's still a long table. It's fine.
37:17
He's He's not like really leaning over that far.
37:20
He could be doing so much worse.
37:22
His elbow's over, but he just he just walked up to the table and threw the ball.
37:31
And also, my man is down nine cups to one. Okay, give him a break. Do you see the score?
37:36
When you're down, I guess.
37:39
And the other team has been a >> has has five.
37:42
He is He is losing so badly. Give him a little break. It's his event. He's throwing the party. He paid for the beer.
37:50
do something nice with a guy and let him let him get an extra on the shot. >> Not a big deal.
37:56
See, you miss you miss the you miss the uh the aesthetics and the and the dignity that comes with somebody who's hosting. They're hosting.
38:06
>> Let them let them in a little bit.
38:08
>> Are you doing the Are you doing the voices?
38:09
I don't have the IM now, so I can't hear what you're doing.
38:12
Has the whole thing been Chad or the >> Yeah, Chad. Tyler's Chad voice. Yours? >> Okay. Okay. Okay. I got you. Well, well played. Well played. Well played.
38:24
Anyway, um uh there's a bunch of fun things.
38:28
Alex Wang on stage uh dripped out.
38:31
People are speculating that it's uh that it's uh you know, high fashion.
38:34
In fact, he corrected the record. It's not. He's thrifting.
38:38
He's not buying uh Gucci and Prada pants. He's just wearing Crocs. Um real tree Crocs.
38:44
Um it is it is a big reverse because uh Alex Wang was on the cover of Fortune or Forbes in Lubboutatons and had his feet up with the red bottoms there and it was like a very I when I saw it I was like that's just a sick photo. >> It's the barbell. >> Uh yeah.
39:00
Uh but I but I it does seem like he like burnt out on the high fashion.
39:04
It's not like he's So you know he's like yeah I'm just gonna dress like this.
39:07
I have my own style which I think is very cool.
39:09
So, uh, good to see Alex Wang, uh, you know, on a run, uh, and and delivering, uh, yeah, just like, uh, big announcements, big progress, uh, at, you know, one of the biggest companies in the world. Good stuff.
39:22
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39:24
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39:25
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39:34
Uh, where should we go next?
39:34
Uh, we got to talk, >> uh, charm.
39:37
Got to talk about the charm. The charm. The charm. The Tomagi. >> So, this was added. This was second.
39:43
Mike Isaac says, "Mark does a one more thing with a new hardware device AI agent called Muse Charm.
39:50
Voice activated and palms sized.
39:54
>> Out in time for the holidays."
39:54
Uh, this feels super smart.
39:57
People already think Muse is super cute.
39:59
Uh it's it's a tech enabled Laboo. Yeah.
40:03
Basically, >> which is extremely popular, like the most dominant consumer product of the last couple years.
40:09
And so, uh it's it it's distinctly sort of like outside of the tech bubble.
40:14
The the the quirky Lubu is is is not like the refined edge of like a Cyber Truck or even an Apple product.
40:24
But, uh, Meta has been sort of not blinded by the the the the clean aesthetics and instead they're like, "Yeah, this is just a cute, fun thing."
40:35
And so, people will actually like this.
40:37
They know what people like.
40:37
So, >> uh, Avi Shiffman over at Friends, the market has spent billions trying to compete with me and I'm still winning. >> Let's go.
40:47
>> Uh, that is the right attitude.
40:47
Um, that being said, I don't see >> people really using the Muse charm that much over over time.
40:56
Like, I think it's like a fun I think it's a fun um kind of like uh toy gimmick thing, but I think it's the kind of thing that people get. It's funny.
41:06
It's worth doing for meta because it should be >> Yeah.
41:10
>> But they'll still be on the phone% of the time, but >> Yeah.
41:13
It'll be It'll be It'll be viral. You can talk to it.
41:15
Um um >> I like these these like narrow oneoff hardware devices for like one interaction.
41:22
Also, it's just like >> it's a it is it is a more wide open space for them to sort of try and come into devices start like you have the glasses then you get this and it's like slowly they're eating into more of the device footprint in people's lives even if it's at the >> and again I I would expect them to sell this just at a loss.
41:43
It's like good marketing for the core product, which >> Do we have a price? I don't think we do yet.
41:49
>> We don't have a price yet, but this feels like something that >> at most you price at like $99, but probably he tries like again he's selling a lot of hardware >> at at negative.
41:59
>> People are going to wear this as a watch potentially like you're going to wind up with the the AP swatch thing, right, where people uh wrap this >> for your most swagless friend. brutal.
42:14
>> Give this give give this as a gift with a watch strap to your most swagless homie this holiday season.
42:18
It's only 91 days till Christmas, but the timing here >> is is is amazing.
42:24
I'm I'm so I have I have no real insight, but like clearly they were working on a personal agent for a long time.
42:31
unclear when when this whole like uh personal agent meets Laboo thing became part of the strategy, but it feels like um yeah, they're they're they're clearly like they have the hardware team set up.
42:48
They can move super quickly on this kind of thing.
42:50
Um and I think it's >> you mount them to glasses so you can look straight at it and then brain rod on your face.
42:57
Um, let's talk about uh some of the downstream.
43:02
>> Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social market places, and now with agents.
43:09
>> What do you want to talk about?
43:10
>> Um, >> the chaos coming Yeah.
43:11
Well, coming away from this uh real challenge for instinct, >> everyone everyone building personal agents, right?
43:20
Um >> uh we we talked about this a bit, but Meta has their own models. >> Yep.
43:25
that they can serve themselves at the cost of of you know energy, right?
43:33
And and all all this capex.
43:34
>> They design their own server racks.
43:34
Like that's how vertically integrated they are.
43:38
And also yeah, they've done a ton of stuff talking about the data centers they're building like benefiting communities.
43:42
They have this whole story about all the teachers in a school district got like a pretty large cash bonus when the data center came to town.
43:50
Like they've done a lot to >> Yeah.
43:52
And they were they were kind of >> born to navigate through this kind of era because of what they went through in the 2010s, right?
43:59
Like the most like veteran like crisis comms.
44:01
Like how do we navigate and position ourselves?
44:06
They're already getting attacked by the social media addictions.
44:09
>> Can you imagine when a data center's coming to town and the muse guy comes in like the Michelin man and he's just like, "Don't worry about it.
44:14
I don't like I don't even like water.
44:16
What are you talking about?"
44:18
Um, so Instinct, >> wonderful product.
44:23
It's growing like wildfire still, right?
44:25
I'm still having I'm getting texts from friends that are barely in tech being like, >> "Hey, I'm >> inviting the product." >> He asked me to text.
44:35
>> Um, >> do you want to grab a beer?
44:40
>> Um, but anyways, uh, Instinct very very very very expensive to serve.
44:42
Uh and uh they're they're not charging right now.
44:49
So uh they're losing >> a lot of money on a per user basis.
44:54
>> Uh they probably will be for some time.
44:56
Muse is coming out and they can afford to lose money forever basically.
45:01
Um and even for them >> they're sort of like gating onboarding in some ways like you sign up for the product and and you're not necessarily ready to like fully go live.
45:11
And so even for Meta, Muse is going to be expensive to scale while they figure out these sort of monetization uh strategies.
45:18
Of course, Meta is in a really good position to figure out how to make money on this.
45:25
>> Um but uh very very challenging for for Instinct.
45:29
I expect that Instinct's going to need to find like a real dance partner of sorts, right?
45:34
You could imagine who >> Google Rufus. >> Yeah.
45:41
>> Um >> do you hear that? That's Rufus. Amazon Roffus. What is that?
45:48
>> Um, no, you could imagine uh, you know, a Google being like, "Hey, uh, we can't build products that people like, but we have a lot of products that people use."
45:59
>> Um, so maybe that's an option.
46:01
>> Y >> um, you could see Amazon as well.
46:02
Um, but for them to be competitive in this full onslaught by uh meta, it's going to be a lot.
46:12
And same same with opening eye.
46:16
>> Comm's advice for Noah.
46:16
Should he be going toe-to-toe trying to ratio Alex Wang? >> Oh, yeah.
46:22
>> Cuz Alex is coming for it.
46:22
He's like, >> well, yeah, it was crazy because Alex has started punching down.
46:29
You know, there's punching up, there's punching.
46:30
Punching up is when you're a startup and you're like taking shots at the at the hyperscaler and punching down we haven't really seen from a hyperscaler in a long time, right?
46:38
But but Alex is out in the on the timeline just >> but yeah, he's he's he's uh you know, he's in a good spot.
46:49
He's in the strong position.
46:50
So, you know, let him know if you're going to try and come for me, you better not miss. I'm the king of this.
46:55
And then of course uh the other challenged uh competitor coming out of this is obviously Snap.
47:02
Um I think that uh >> I don't know how long the Specs project can really continue especially because I don't think that >> I don't think the these VR glasses are going to be >> I don't think they're going to be like a mass market hit where you're just all of your friends are using them, right?
47:20
I think it's going to be like a base hit, right?
47:23
another step in the right direction.
47:25
Not as popular as the regular Meta like smart glasses, right?
47:29
But like >> a cool entertainment product.
47:32
They're going to sell some units. Snap is going to sell.
47:38
I would be surprised if they sold more than 10,000 units, right?
47:39
And um the market is just going to keep punishing Snap as long as they keep trying to force specs to work when >> um unless they have some version that that we can't see that is already way better than Meta.
47:56
Like I just don't see how they can really stay in the game after this, especially because Apple is going to try to come over the top with their own smart glasses as soon as possible.
48:10
>> I mean, they should do Visionaire.
48:10
I I I >> No, but I'm not I'm not expecting like Visionaire.
48:14
I don't even think that's what it would be called.
48:16
I think it'll just be called Apple Glasses.
48:18
>> I just think everyone everyone is in consensus that Apple should basically wind down the Mac project and the iOS project and focus fully on VR.
48:26
Like probably that would be like a good thing for them to do.
48:32
>> I don't think that um >> No, no, they're going to do glasses.
48:36
They're going to look nice. I don't know.
48:37
But the the cool thing for Zuck is that he's beating them to the punch on like it functions as a hearing aid, right?
48:44
>> Uh I mean uh the AirPods AirPods AirPods already Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
48:46
But but in the in the glasses format, right?
48:48
Like coming being first is is uh that's the best chance he has.
48:56
>> And they've been doing some good good marketing around that with uh a number of uh users that are hearing impaired.
49:02
And it's just a it's it's it's such a minor technology, but it's huge for someone who's actually affected by hearing loss and then they tell a human story and it's oh what is AI doing? It's just slop.
49:15
Well, it's helping people that are, you know, suffering from hearing loss.
49:19
Uh here like that's magic. That's amazing.
49:22
That's actually it's a it's a medical I mean it's FDA.
49:24
It's it's a medical innovation. So very very good stuff.
49:29
Uh let me tell you about codeex.
49:31
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49:35
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49:42
Uh what's going on with Australia and OpenAI?
49:43
Tyler, you dug into this.
49:46
So Jordy shared like the highlevel news which is that uh as part of like the hugging face rogue AI agents going all over looking for everything on the internet that Australia had been hacked.
49:59
But what actually happened here?
50:01
>> Yeah, I mean I think a lot of the details are still not like fully revealed.
50:05
Um >> the Australian prime minister was like really up in arms like oh they hacked and they didn't tell us for for you know weeks on end.
50:12
>> Um but it seems like the consensus now is that >> well like the hack was essentially that there were some like unlisted files that were still like publicly accessible. >> Yeah.
50:23
uh but they're just like not listed anywhere and then the agent like found those >> and so they're saying like oh they hacked into us but you know there's no like real personal identity revealed at all.
50:32
Um, and like these are they're private in the sense that like you can't just like you Google search for them. >> Navigate them.
50:36
There's no link if you just click a button.
50:38
But if you >> but if you're scraping if you're doing some kind of more >> I have a funny story about that.
50:43
In 2012, uh, I had a buddy who was, uh, you know, I don't know, hacker, hacker-ish software developer, uh, not not actually like hacking into things, but just capable with, uh, with computers.
50:56
And he, uh, he was scraping the, uh, I think it was maybe Boston Dynamics, but, it might have just been like a humanoid robot company at the time, and there was a there's a tool where you can go and get like a list of files and URLs on a server.
51:12
uh you can just ask for it as a webcwler.
51:15
You don't actually need to uh you know click through all the links and look at the HTML.
51:20
You can just see what does this server actually have? Let me go browse it.
51:23
And one of the images was like a artist rendering of the humanoid like with a gun like full like murderbot mode that never made it to the to the like publication.
51:32
It was never like yeah we're going to do that because it was like we're still in friendly mode.
51:36
We were like wow like that's uh that's wild.
51:40
So this I mean this stuff has happened you know years ago um and so not quite a hack but >> certainly hacking equivalent of elbows over the table.
51:51
>> Yeah, I think that's accurate.
51:51
Um well uh Jordy, do you did you have another uh one that you want to run through or should we go to the allimportant new uh new car launch from none other than uh Bentley?
52:06
Uh, let's go over to this notification from HP Smart. >> What happened? Oh, yes.
52:12
>> Says you're low on ink and then never run low on ink again.
52:16
>> It does sound like a threat.
52:18
>> Tyler Wolf says, "Is this an ad or a warning?"
52:21
>> It sounds like a threat. Just never do it. 8,000 likes. FO. Very funny.
52:24
Uh, flock safety is weighing whether to sell itself. Um, very interesting.
52:32
I mean obviously insane public backlash for that company.
52:36
Uh we've talked to Garrett about it.
52:38
Uh very interesting technology but very very controversial and um a lot of >> who would cities are kicking >> what kind of acquirer would um solve uh solve the problem.
52:52
>> Um I mean a rebrand and then also like a like a a taser company or something you know because there are companies that compete with them directly.
53:00
Um like there there are plenty of like Axon like military and and police you know product companies.
53:09
Uh somebody was saying yeah Zach Weinberg was saying honestly Flock should just rename itself to the license plate scan company since that's actually what they do and the problem might just go away.
53:18
I don't know if it'll actually go away.
53:20
I think people are pretty deeply embedded.
53:22
They'll chase this around for a while but >> well that's that's the thing.
53:25
I just feel like Flock is having the most insane comms crisis of any company that I can ever remember. >> Yeah. >> Right. No, serious.
53:37
>> And who wants to inherit that crisis and get that attention pointed to them? >> Totally. Yeah.
53:43
>> Um well, Bentley's first electric car is set to be half the price of the Ferrari Luche.
53:48
The launch of the luxury car makers Torcal SUV is aimed at younger and firsttime customers. What do you think?
53:56
Are they over their skis with an EV at a time when people are sort of moving away from it or does it work for this particular luxury SUV buyer?
54:04
If there's any place where having the the the silence of an EV, uh, a Bentley sort of fits.
54:13
This was the the thesis with the Rolls-Royce Spectre. You take the engine out.
54:18
Yeah, there's some enthusiasts who might be upset, but most people aren't buying it because they want to redline it.
54:24
So, uh, it can potentially work.
54:27
Uh, do you think we'll be seeing a lot of these or will it be uh passed over for the Urus and the new McLaren SUV potentially?
54:34
>> Well, I don't think we're going to be seeing a lot because Bentley is just not selling a lot of cars right now, but >> yeah, >> uh, I think the car looks great minus the grill. >> Minus the grill.
54:46
The grill is is completely complet.
54:52
Uh it looks a little bit more squared off than what I'm what I'm used to with Bentley.
54:56
>> Well, it's specifically like whatever lighting pattern this is.
55:00
>> Oh, just so it might look different in sunlight. You mean? >> Well, no.
55:02
I just think this looks horrible. >> Okay.
55:05
Well, it's smaller than the Bentega, which was the first.
55:07
Like you have like you have this like >> sort of very clean sporty feeling car.
55:16
>> This is the company signature diamond pattern. Okay.
55:18
Put some respect on it apparently. I'm just learning this. >> No, I know.
55:21
But it but but it would just imagine how good this car would look.
55:24
>> How would you describe the design overall?
55:26
Would you say it's muscular?
55:28
Because that's how they're designing it. Describing it. Is it a muscular design? >> I think so. Okay. I would agree with that.
55:34
I'm just saying I I think the car looks amazing minus this light.
55:39
>> Do you think it should have some more vascularity?
55:41
>> Maybe in a wrap you could add some rippling veins to it to give it more more of a muscular design. >> No.
55:48
>> Instead of recreating the V8 engine noise, the EV has a propulsion sound handcrafted by musicians with a unique blend of sounds from percussion, crystal glass, birds, and the tapping of leather.
56:00
So as you drive it, it sings you a song.
56:04
The Volkswagen owned luxury brand said it had also completed a $350 million investment to design and build the Toral at its plant in Crew, bringing the total investment in the UK automotive sector to more than 1 billion.
56:16
The EV launch comes at a challenging period for Bentley as it struggles with slowing demand in China, fallout from Middle East conflict, higher US tariffs.
56:23
As with the broader VW group, Bentley has slimmed its workforce as profits and vehicle deliveries have declined. It's serious.
56:33
Uh, we have to bring back the competitiveness. We have to be quick. We have to work harder.
56:36
You can hear this is the sound it makes when you drive it.
56:43
I suppose you hear the Oh, it's the finger on the edge of the glass. Can you hear that?
56:50
Imagine trying >> well with that sound.
56:54
>> Let me tell you about Crowd Strike. Your business is AI.
56:56
Their business is securing it.
56:57
Crowd Strike secures AI and stops breaches.
57:00
And we are ready for our first guests of go from a stealth AI security lab today. Welcome to the show. How are you both doing?
57:10
Oh, we are going back to the timeline. Back to the timeline. There's other news. >> Oh, okay. We are good. Welcome to the show. How you doing? >> Hello.
57:21
>> Hey, >> thank you for having us. Nice to see you.
57:23
>> Thanks for hopping on.
57:23
Uh please, since this is your first time on the show and first time uh talking about this topic, uh please introduce yourselves in the company.
57:32
>> Hey, so my name is Chalev and this is Romy.
57:35
We're actually we're actually siblings.
57:37
Um >> so I come from uh decade of AI research.
57:42
Um worked on reasoning and computer use way back.
57:45
Sort of started doing AI research when I was 16.
57:47
um sort of finished my courses early.
57:49
Um first we go >> I did uh I worked on surgical navigation and then reasoning models and then verification of LLMs and then AI and security >> um and uh how foreign actors might target AI infrastructure stuff like that.
58:04
Uh and that's how sort of we got to to where we are now with this company on my end.
58:08
But but ROI is really the true genius I'd say.
58:12
>> Well well I come from quantum security and quantum computing. >> Oh cool.
58:15
Um and so for the past few years I've been working on enhancing the security of uh quantum communication networks.
58:22
This was prior to the company. >> Yeah.
58:24
>> Um and so quantum communication networks are imagine a computer network but at each endpoint you have a quantum device.
58:31
And so there's lots of vulnerabilities that come alongside that.
58:33
So I invented protocols to to enhance their security.
58:37
Um before that I uh worked on advanced methods for breaking encryption schemes, quantum machine learning for climate prediction, a bunch of stuff.
58:44
And uh um both of our backgrounds in security kind of brought us to this really exciting um time in AI security. Lots going on right now.
58:54
>> Is there another sibling that's also cracked or or is it just you guys >> doing science?
59:01
>> We we we said we needed a third co-founder.
59:02
Um that's our parents fault for that.
59:05
I would say that they're going to maybe do robotics or something.
59:08
>> Yeah, robotics or rocket science.
59:08
Where is the biggest opportunity in in security and AI?
59:11
I mean, Ilio was posting about the importance of securing NeoClouds.
59:16
There's obviously everything from prompt injection to uh application layer security, securing the weights so those don't get stolen.
59:24
Like how do you see the the both the risks and the opportunities for the business?
59:32
>> So security is a a very large stack.
59:32
Um, in AI there is the model behavior part of security where you know prompt injection the model's going to get some prompt and do something you don't mean it to do.
59:43
That's that's that also I would put alignment probably also in that category.
59:46
Then there's the AI infrastructure security which I think is a huge opportunity.
59:50
That's where we operate a lot of.
59:53
>> Um you're having this massive AI infra buildout and it's just going so fast that security can't keep up.
59:59
that security can't keep up. uh and we're deploying these massively important uh models which are approaching you know AGI or ASI >> on these systems that have limited security >> uh and that's not good because then it exposes you to three main uh risks which is uh the sabotage of the models
1:00:19
themselves you know degrading performance uh sleeper agents you know inserting back doors into models data poisoning and then it also exposes you to u models that that can escape, you know, have we've seen in hugging face and the German wiki and uh you know, we just heard about the Australian government um yesterday. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
1:00:38
>> And then the third is theft.
1:00:38
So this is an external actor, you know, let's say a very sophisticated intelligence service that is breaking in to steal these weights which compress billions and billions of dollars of investment into a few terabytes. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Right.
1:00:54
Um so that's a huge huge problem.
1:00:57
So I'd say it's there's the model behavior side and there's the AI infra side.
1:01:00
Those are two big pieces of the pie.
1:01:02
>> And where are you guys starting or are you just like going to do the whole thing?
1:01:07
>> So today we released a report. Yeah.
1:01:09
>> Um called secure acceleration. So secure acceleration. com. >> Okay.
1:01:14
>> Um basically what it is is there's been a lot of talk for the past few months about AI security since the hugging face incident started.
1:01:21
It seems like every week there's another incident that has happened.
1:01:24
Um and it's precisely because everything is moving quite quickly and the infrastructure is struggling to keep up. >> Yeah.
1:01:32
>> The point of accelerating securely is you know AI is going to advance and we need to secure the stack while it does that.
1:01:45
>> And um how are you thinking about the business?
1:01:47
There's a world where you do all of this as a nonprofit.
1:01:49
You engage deeply with all the labs.
1:01:52
I mean Dario Amade was calling for uh you know independent auditors.
1:01:56
There's a world where you live there.
1:01:57
There's also a world where you're you know competing with with CrowdStrike and you're selling uh you know solutions to uh users who are maybe you know independent of the labs.
1:02:11
So it's actually it applies to almost it applies to the frontier labs to the neoclouds compute providers hyperscalers model developers everyone really touches the compute stack um in the data center stack >> and this is you might think you know data centers are secure they've existed
1:02:28
for many years but they have not been designed >> to contain super intelligence >> right yeah >> so now we have civilizations as we saw in the hugging face incident we have civilizations within these data centers developing there's like multi- aent
1:02:43
systems and there if you think in cyber security there's a Swiss cheese model >> you the more agents you throw at a system the more loopholes they can find >> and so in the report we talk about something called the cyber swarm right so what we saw is the cyber swarm and
1:03:00
harming face >> um and the sabotage escape and um theft model is actually it encompasses is the risks that we are going to be seeing and we've already been starting to see from these types of cyber swarms and cyber super intelligence. Um, and this is very
1:03:15
Um, and this is very important for all of these players to think about.
1:03:22
>> Well, congratulations on launching the report.
1:03:23
Where can people find it again?
1:03:25
Can you give me the URL one more time?
1:03:27
>> So, it's secure acceleration. com. >> Okay. Secure acceleration. com.
1:03:30
Everyone should go and give it a read.
1:03:35
>> It's a It's a white pill. It's a solution. >> I know. I wanted to have it. >> It is dramatic. Yes, I like it. I like it.
1:03:43
It's important that we work on these things.
1:03:45
>> Please work on that whole wet lab thing, too. >> That was risky.
1:03:49
Uh, but uh, congratulations and thank you so much.
1:03:53
>> Yeah, great to meet you.
1:03:53
I'm sure we'll talk again soon.
1:03:55
>> We'll talk to you soon. Have a good one. Cheers, guys. >> Goodbye.
1:03:57
Let me tell you about Railway.
1:03:59
Railway is the all-in-one intelligent cloud provider.
1:04:01
Use your favorite agent to deploy web app, servers, databases, and more.
1:04:04
Well, Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring, and security.
1:04:07
And coming back on the show, we have Leaf from public. com, co-founder, co-CEO. We're very excited.
1:04:15
Anytime he gets a chance to join the show, >> Leaf, how you doing, >> my man? >> What's up?
1:04:23
>> Uh, it's always cold in the Ultra Dome. We have no light.
1:04:27
>> It's a windowless room. >> It is. It is.
1:04:29
>> It's a windowless room.
1:04:29
So, I get to pretend like any any There's whatever conditions outside.
1:04:34
>> Yeah, I'm pretty sure it's like 72 and sunny today.
1:04:36
Let me actually check the weather. It's 78Ā°, Jordy.
1:04:37
It's not cold at all, but it is a little chilly in here. How is it in New York? >> Um, it's fine.
1:04:46
It's getting a little cooler now. >> It's crisp.
1:04:49
I like when it's crisp out. >> It's crisp. It is crisp.
1:04:51
That's how I would put it.
1:04:53
>> Is it putting you in >> I'm still I'm still metric system, so it's like >> 18 17.
1:04:59
>> Is it putting you in >> Is it putting you in the Christmas spirit? >> Of course. >> 91 days. >> 91 days. 21 days. >> 21 days left.
1:05:09
>> Well, lots to do between then and now.
1:05:11
What are you launching through the end of the year?
1:05:13
What did you just launch?
1:05:14
Take us through the latest in uh in public world.
1:05:17
>> So, today we've uh launched AI agents for prediction markets like our take on that twofold.
1:05:23
Number one, again, public is a multiasset investment platform as your ad read likely states every single day hopefully.
1:05:29
And um as part of that obviously prediction markets aka event contracts is something that people are also asking for.
1:05:36
Our take on that is no sports no entertainment but essentially events that could impact your portfolio right events that moves the market.
1:05:44
So >> you know economics things around companies you know and so on.
1:05:48
But then on the other end obviously we have uh AI agents built into the platform and so that combination creates some really interesting things.
1:05:56
interesting things. Like the one example I right now always make all day long here is um you know if you see that the market for the where the probability of a rate hike goes above 70% sell my treasuries for example >> and so you can suddenly you know not just trade the events as you can do you
1:06:13
know in many places but you can also use the kind of real-time probability you know data as a signal to do other things in your portfolio that could be trades it could be alerts risk management whatever you might want to do that >> yeah that's that's so interesting because that that raid example makes a lot of sense. And yet, uh, I go to that
1:06:28
And yet, uh, I go to that like Reddit meme of like it's all priced in, everything's priced in, and because the the the the yield curve of the treasury market, it is a prediction market.
1:06:39
Uh, and so you could just trade the underlying asset, but at the same time, psychologically, uh, people do go to prediction markets for this thing in in in in the very real sense.
1:06:50
So, um, how do you think about the way the user actually engages with this?
1:06:55
Is this is this something that was like customer pull like they were already doing this behavior?
1:06:58
It makes sense to centralize it.
1:07:00
What are the benefits of actually having it all in one place?
1:07:05
>> Yeah, I mean um number one, yes, we had obviously some people asking for it.
1:07:08
You know, as new as this instrument is, I think it very quickly also becomes something that at least certain people are expecting you to have, you know, to be frank.
1:07:19
be frank. Um and then secondly obviously like four AI agents in public with with anything we add to the platform adds basically power and capability to the AI agents and so any asset class we launch any data source we add you know just makes it more encompassing and you know
1:07:37
makes it smarter in a way and you know creates more opportunities for people to do something with it and obviously like we can't predict every single thing someone will do with these things because it's very open-ended but um it kind of you know creates more kind of tools at the arsenal for people to be creative with it. Um, obviously like
1:07:50
Um, obviously like when it comes to these markets, we always say like it is earth signal, not just the signal, you know.
1:07:55
So, as much as they're called prediction markets these days, um, you know, I would I would still, you know, put it as a it's one signal, it's not the signal >> that you can predict. Yeah.
1:08:08
>> Uh talk more about the decision not to do uh sports markets because it's one of those things like this feels like >> uh entirely like a principled decision staying true to to the mission of the company because even though you guys feel might feel a certain way about sports markets, I'm sure you have hundreds of thousands of users that actually would like you to have them and would use them if you >> if you offered them.
1:08:35
but uh it doesn't feel like you think that's in their long-term best interest.
1:08:40
>> Yeah, I would say it's always important that you know who you're designing for >> and you might have other customers as well and you might acquire those customers, but I think it's very important to know who you're designing for.
1:08:51
And for us, we're designing for always like the top quartile in the US, right?
1:08:55
Like people that have money left over at the end of the month they can put into the markets.
1:08:58
We handle people's life savings, you know, and so these are folks that take their investing seriously and they, you know, truly, you know, manage their all-encompassing portfolios and retirement funds and all that in the public account.
1:09:10
And so with that, there's a certain seriousness that comes with it.
1:09:14
And I would argue that like things like sports entertainment contracts is more like entertainment finance, right?
1:09:20
>> Um, and so we think it's it's it is it is just logical for that to kind of happen arms length from your actual, you know, portfolio and so on.
1:09:26
And then the kind of principle that we look at again is this notion of events that could have an impact on the markets and therefore on your portfolio at large.
1:09:34
on your portfolio at large. And there you know there are certain use cases where it makes sense to engage in these markets you know and like one example we always make is if you you know um we like we've all been in this moment where we had like a very defined specific idea on like an earnings call of a company right and we ended up being right and
1:09:54
the stock still dipped and we lost money on the trade and it was not because you know we were wrong on on on what we thought would happen last quarter but it was because the CEO said something stupid on the earnings call or you know the outlook that they've presented was different than the analysts expected or >> like oil prices spiked that day and so there was an exact factor. Yeah. Yeah.
1:10:15
>> And so sometimes for people to the the ability to kind of dissect a company's performance and their KPIs and being able to place a trade on very specific kind of sub KPIs of a company can have a very good you know kind of use case as well.
1:10:28
And so those things for us make sense, right?
1:10:30
And I would tell this little story of like I've used KI myself the other day when we were at the US Open and I had my German homeboy uh Swear was obviously you know killing it.
1:10:41
Um, and I was sitting there, you know, placing these trades and like as you know, as amazing as this backhand is, like it's not moving the markets, >> right?
1:10:50
And so I think there's a very clear kind of line to be drawn there.
1:10:54
And again, you can have long discussions about where do you draw the line between speculation and gambling.
1:10:59
>> Um, and everyone will have their subjective kind of, you know, arguments on on whether it should be drawn.
1:11:03
Um, but we feel like there's a very obvious line to be drawn for us in these markets and that's basically there.
1:11:09
What about the New York Knicks?
1:11:10
They're owned by Madison Square Garden. It's a public company.
1:11:14
If the Knicks go on a crazy run, >> then maybe the stock moves.
1:11:17
Man, uh Manchester United also publicly traded so you can own the actual asset.
1:11:22
Yeah, I would definitely more sports betterers should get into just owning the teams.
1:11:26
I feel like that's where the money's made.
1:11:30
You see it every >> just steadily compound.
1:11:32
>> Yeah, just steadily compound for sure. Uh that's very funny.
1:11:35
uh what what is what is driving uh topline growth for you these days?
1:11:40
Are there specific channels?
1:11:42
Is there anything like secular trend going on in the market?
1:11:45
Uh what what's actually working in terms of in terms of just overall >> as obvious and stupid as it sounds, but like AI agents for us is that obviously like it's the main core topic.
1:11:55
We see >> a lot of large sophisticated accounts come in.
1:12:01
Like we had a guy come in who was with UBS wealth management, fired his wealth management team, moved $50 million50 into a public account and now has AI agents managing his portfolio mostly basically doing like covered calls and you know generating income and like on on the back of that. Yeah.
1:12:23
>> And I think and and those are things that we see happen every single day.
1:12:24
And it's interesting to see how kind of that first cohort that actually sees the most use in it in the agents and public have been very sophisticated wealthy people that have these like complexities and have this idea for these like specific strategies that they want to execute on and so on.
1:12:43
Well, and is it typically because they were historically paying management fees to get those capabilities and then they're realizing like, hey, this is basically like software code that I'm paying for >> capabilities just like the actual execution of a strategy.
1:12:56
And so if you have an AI agent that can do that for you on an repeat basis. Yeah. Yeah.
1:13:00
You can >> like text harvesting is another great example.
1:13:05
Like we have people who basically just do portfolio text harvesting using an agent. >> Sure. Yeah.
1:13:10
And um it's a very simple strategy that you know people want to want to want to put in their portfolio, but again tax harvesting makes most sense if you have a sizable portfolio where the tax losses actually make a difference in your life.
1:13:23
And so again, it kind of applies more to people who are, you know, who have a a decent account size and, you know, some sophistication. >> Yeah.
1:13:32
Yeah, that makes a ton of sense.
1:13:33
Well, congratulations on the launch and the progress.
1:13:35
Thank you so much for coming on the show. Great.
1:13:37
>> I actually have only one ad read left for the show and it's none other than public. I'm not making this up.
1:13:43
Investing for those who take it seriously.
1:13:44
We got stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service.
1:13:48
Thanks for hopping on the show. >> Great to see you. Excited to hang soon. >> Have a good one. Goodbye.
1:13:55
>> Up next, we have the founder of Typesafe AI.
1:13:58
You've you saw Jeff launch massively viral launch.
1:14:01
And we have the founder and CEO here to break it down for us.
1:14:06
The new model's faster structured decision software can use it directly.
1:14:08
A lot of excitement, a lot of questions to answer. So let's bring in. How are you doing? Welcome to the show.
1:14:16
>> You're doing so great.
1:14:16
So sleepdeprived and so excited. Yeah.
1:14:21
>> Sleep deprived because you're >> time to sleep.
1:14:24
>> Everyone's onboarding and everyone's and demand is through the roof. Is that what's going on? Or is it fundraising? >> Everything. Everyone wants to talk.
1:14:31
Every like everything every customer wants it.
1:14:33
Like as far as I know, all the companies I've ever heard of are using us and the systems are on fire on dimensions I've never even known were possible.
1:14:41
And I'm like a backend guy. >> Yeah.
1:14:44
So, uh I imagine >> Wait, but but back up a little bit.
1:14:46
When when you launched this, like where where what was your expectation?
1:14:51
I'm assuming you felt like, you know, you had something pretty cool. >> Polish launch.
1:14:55
It's going to be ahead, right?
1:14:58
>> I don't think that this launch could have been expected if I'm like totally frank.
1:15:02
It's like I've planned for a lot of scenarios.
1:15:04
It's above a 100th percentile.
1:15:05
People are calling it like a chat GPT for developers and that shouldn't even be possible because chat GPT is a consumer product, right?
1:15:11
Like why how is it this happening?
1:15:13
And I have my own hypothesis, but u it's it's insane.
1:15:18
Yeah, I imagine you've at this point honed the the the elevator pitch, but just for anyone who who is not familiar with Jev and the product and the value, how are you breaking it down for people these days?
1:15:32
>> Oh, I I have not honed the elevator pitch, but I will I will try. I will try.
1:15:35
People just tolerate my like over like overly intense teching. Sure.
1:15:38
But um I would say the simple version is make AI actually useful for automation. I hope I can curse.
1:15:46
Um but I I think AI underpromise overd deliver overpromise underd deliver has been a major issue major issue for years and it's been like automating almost nothing and I think people are like super frustrated with that. >> Okay.
1:16:00
Uh I saw I saw people uh like there are trade-offs when you go for speed and reliability and you want to overd deliver. What are you giving up? What can Jev not do?
1:16:08
When is it not the right tool for the job?
1:16:13
>> Oh, there's a couple of dimensions for that.
1:16:15
One of them is it doesn't generate strings.
1:16:16
So like it will not write code for you and it will not address the largest market for LMS right now which is coding agents.
1:16:21
I think that that's perfect because actually what I want to do is like not the superhuman math but the really boring automation you know like why can't like simple data entry be solved and accounting and customer service.
1:16:34
Uh another trade-off is it's not doesn't do uh what we call system two thinking like mathematical reasoning.
1:16:40
It's really focused on instinctive judgment. >> Okay.
1:16:43
So then uh instinctive judgment can be subjective.
1:16:46
One company can have a policy they want to automate their accounting workflows one way they have a definition for what is gap profit.
1:16:53
The other one has a different one.
1:16:55
So how much uh like you know one shot or or like preloading into like a context window is happening versus like talking to you doing some fine-tuning like what what what terminology actually does carry over from what we know and what is entirely new?
1:17:14
So I would say like the former is the most accurate thing, but the real thing that's happening is this logic actually would go in code.
1:17:20
So LLMs don't play nicely with code due to like a lot of properties about LMS.
1:17:25
And the logic you're describing should happen in code instead of like in the system message.
1:17:30
The classic example of this is LLM does something bad and the way to prevent it is say pretty please don't do that in the system message on top and you just have to pray it doesn't get context rotted out of it and it keeps on listening. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:17:43
A lot of these things you're sort of like begging for JSON begging for it to be structured the right way and it's not guaranteed to be that way.
1:17:51
It it might be that way very reliably and people have worked around that but it's not 100%. Right. >> Exactly.
1:17:57
And we are not 100% either.
1:17:59
that would be like crazy to guarantee intelligence.
1:18:00
But what we try to do is we try to encourage the best practice and we try to be calibrated.
1:18:04
So this is another problem with AI like it might be able to be like Einstein 95% of the time but Mr.
1:18:10
Bean the other 5% of the time but if it doesn't tell you if it's in like Einstein or Mr.
1:18:14
Bean mode like how are you going to automate anything right?
1:18:18
But like calibration >> it's just a funny reference but I love it. It's really funny. >> Thank you.
1:18:24
Yeah, Einstein shoted Salesforce Mr. Bean AI. We need that as well.
1:18:30
Um, so yeah, where uh so you're are uh you I mean you mentioned like the servers are on fire.
1:18:35
Are you compute constrained in the same way?
1:18:38
Are you looking for like large like GPU clusters and systems or or does some of the knock are some of the knockown effects of like the speed of the system that I've seen on display can it also run on like more commodity hardware?
1:18:52
Are there any different elements to how you should think about your compute scaling or is it or is it going to look like any other Neolab?
1:19:02
>> Uh extremely different from other Neolabs like like uh you know people know that about a year and a half ago you raised less than $40 million.
1:19:07
You can't get Neolab compute with less than $40 million.
1:19:11
And also you can't build a profitable AI company with that.
1:19:14
Yet we have because we are just innovating you know we're just doing different stuff than everyone else is.
1:19:20
So, uh, we have extremely different comput.
1:19:22
Um, actually the the bottleneck changes every single day.
1:19:27
I think it's just growing pains of scaling a system.
1:19:29
Like you can't grow at the rate that we're growing without realizing like, hey, our system was not designed for this level of stuff. Got it.
1:19:36
>> So, it's a it's a constant battle there.
1:19:39
>> Uh, I I saw some uh push back that I didn't really uh fully understand, but I' I'd love for you to sort of break down what people are saying and and how you'd respond to it.
1:19:47
this idea that like this is innovation, but it's also a return to a prior era, a classifier model.
1:19:56
Some people are like, well, we've always had this.
1:19:58
And like personally, from business perspective, I don't care because if we need to pull something old off the shelf and it's amazing and it's delivering value, that's great.
1:20:06
But is that is that real?
1:20:08
Is that a good criticism?
1:20:10
Is that completely misinformed?
1:20:12
How do you process that idea that uh that this is actually building on the the shoulders of giants from years ago >> or a lost art? >> Or a lost art. Yeah. >> Yes.
1:20:22
So uh I can curse, right? Uh >> uh please.
1:20:24
We we we tend not to but do whatever you need to do. Just just rip it. >> Heck yes. It's fine. It's fine.
1:20:29
I'll try to be controlled.
1:20:31
I'm sorry if it gets off the rails.
1:20:33
I love this question so much. Heck yes. Heck yes. It's a classifier. Is it just a classifier? No.
1:20:40
But classifiers are awesome.
1:20:40
Classifiers were not constructed because like a mathematician would think it's like a fun thing to do.
1:20:45
Um a classifier is designed to make intelligence useful in systems, right?
1:20:50
That is why everything was classifiers before Gen AI because it was made for usefulness, not for demos or playing around.
1:20:57
And actually that we don't take all of the ML 1. 0 concepts, right?
1:21:02
Some of them don't apply.
1:21:02
What we do is we try to unlock the best that like AI of today has.
1:21:06
And some of that doesn't apply, but like the other stuff definitely does.
1:21:10
This calibration thing of like telling you when it doesn't know that is table stakes for simple automation.
1:21:16
How can you have it like run in the background and process something that would requ like like normally require an accountant if you don't have like extreme guarantees on how smart it is?
1:21:25
So absolutely it's a classifier and this is the kind of thing that I think ML people really don't get with our launch.
1:21:31
>> You know like this is a launch for developers. >> Uh yes. Yes. I I I totally get that.
1:21:33
is uh is there a uh a version of this?
1:21:36
You know the the story and I mean you would know whether or not it's apocryphal of like Google had LLMs, they invented the transformer, they had a product that was similar to chatbt and they didn't launch it that quickly.
1:21:49
Is there a world where a technology like this maybe exists inside of a hyperscaler and they just haven't actually gotten it out into the world or or do you think that that's less likely to be the case?
1:22:02
I would guess that it either I'm a clown or it's extremely unlikely.
1:22:05
We worked really hard on this.
1:22:08
Like when I started I was one of the best in the world at pre-trading uh post training sorry and I thought it would take a week.
1:22:17
>> So um I would be >> and actually when I first Yes.
1:22:19
When I first started I thought this is such obviously the way to go. >> Okay.
1:22:25
>> It's so obvious that for sure Anthropic is working on this already. Open AAI is cooked.
1:22:29
I was at OpenAI when I first started like thinking about this direction and it just seems so obvious to like someone who's at the intersection of developer and researcher but so nonobvious to pure researchers. >> Mhm. Yeah. Uh >> wild.
1:22:43
What uh what's this uh what's this thing that you're wearing?
1:22:49
>> Oh uh pink or the shirt? >> I guess both. >> Both.
1:22:54
It's a it's our tist shirt.
1:22:54
Anti- language language model. Okay.
1:22:58
>> Um, technically it's not a language model, but it is a sick brand, so we wear it.
1:23:02
And this is this is my classic Teu $20 pink for >> There you go. >> Very good.
1:23:08
Well, well, thanks so much for coming on the show and breaking it down. Congrats on the project.
1:23:12
>> Yeah, I can only I can only imagine how how busy you are.
1:23:14
Good luck with with I'm sure a new round serving all that demand.
1:23:18
>> We'll talk to you soon. Have a good one. >> Heck yeah. See you around. Bye. >> Goodbye. >> See you. >> A lot of fun. Great energy.
1:23:24
Uh up next we have the co-founder and CEO of Sulcoa Industries, Human Resa Naz.
1:23:29
Let's bring Human in to the TV for Altra. How are you doing? Welcome to the show. >> Good to see you all. >> Good to see you. >> What was that?
1:23:42
>> We just made our announcement today. >> Tell me soon. >> Yes. Uh wait. So, yeah. Sorry. Reset.
1:23:50
What is the announcement? Take us through it.
1:23:52
>> So, Silka is a a rare earth metalizer.
1:23:54
We produce the metals of power and motion, the metals that go into any electric car, any fighter jet, data center, your phone, wind turbine.
1:23:59
And we are completely unable to make these metals in the west. Silo is changing that.
1:24:05
We just raised 75 million for our SLOA one project.
1:24:08
It's our it's our 500 ton per year rare earth metalization plant in Nevada and it's the first step we're taking uh taking to market.
1:24:14
How much of this is like the redwood materials playbook where you're using uh rare earths that have already gone through been used and you're recycling them versus engaging with mining companies to get new raw materials out of the ground and then refine them.
1:24:32
>> So when we f when we chatted the first time I was I was on here we were recycler so almost all of our production was from rare scrap.
1:24:37
We would take material from hard drives from cars.
1:24:41
About a year ago we moved to primary metal making.
1:24:43
So now we work exclusively with mines.
1:24:45
We take virgin mind ore that has been refined and then we convert that to metals.
1:24:48
We did that because of scale.
1:24:50
It's just hard to get the volume of recycled material we need.
1:24:52
So today we do a little bit of recycling for for a few customers, but almost all of our production is is primary version material.
1:24:59
>> How what is the state of rare earth mining in America?
1:25:01
Everyone's heard the the catchphrase like the rare earths aren't actually rare.
1:25:06
They're just stuck in the ground and we don't really mine them.
1:25:09
But it feels like uh the timeline to set up a new mining capability in America would be longer than your timeline.
1:25:17
So there's some sort of mismatch there.
1:25:18
So uh how much is that a reality?
1:25:21
What are you running into?
1:25:22
Where are the bottlenecks?
1:25:22
What's the state of the American rare earth mining industry?
1:25:28
>> So contrary to popular belief, we do mine in the west, right?
1:25:30
We we have we have an enormous rare earth mine in in Australia.
1:25:33
There's one in there's one in in the US and California.
1:25:35
There is other dozens of projects scaling up across the west.
1:25:39
There is mineral sands deposits in the US and elsewhere.
1:25:42
The actual raw feed stock is not rare.
1:25:43
It is produced in the west.
1:25:45
The bottleneck is what you do after. It is the processing.
1:25:47
That is something that we completely unable to do in the west.
1:25:50
Now, we actually invented these processes in America, right?
1:25:54
America has a history of of incredible work and in metallurgy.
1:25:55
The example I gave in the announcement was Charles Martin fault with Alcoa, a 22-year-old and a witch out in Ohio.
1:26:00
He drove the price of aluminum down 98%.
1:26:04
The technologies used to make rare in China today are American technologies from the Manhattan project.
1:26:07
So we did this at one point and we built this technology and these these systems and then we shifted to China >> and China dominated. They matured it.
1:26:15
They took over and and now in the west it has become incredibly difficult to be able to bring those technologies back in a way where we can actually compete in the free market. It's very expensive. It's very dirty. >> Yeah.
1:26:25
There are two stories that people tell about why this capability went to China.
1:26:29
One is uh labor cost was cheaper over there.
1:26:32
uh they were a developing nation and it was able to you know new new people coming out of poverty so you can pay much lower wages.
1:26:38
The other one is more um about the effects of industrialization.
1:26:44
Uh ecological effects, the fact that you know nimism, no one wants a mine in their town that's dirtying up the water.
1:26:52
So put it halfway across the world.
1:26:54
Uh which one of those speaks to you more? Is it a combination?
1:26:58
And how are we overcoming those in America? >> Well, it's both.
1:27:01
The first thing that happened was the environmental repercussions, right?
1:27:05
There was there was the enormous Molly Corp Molly Cororp deposit in in in the US that was one of the one of the first major virus projects in the world.
1:27:12
There was a lot of scandals and a lot of a lot of issues uh several decades ago regarding the environment.
1:27:18
I have deposit of thorium in them that can leech into the ground.
1:27:22
So one of that's one of the initial triggers that actually shipped a lot of that production to China and then we effectively gave all the technology to the Chinese right and Chinese Chinese companies sort of buying up buying off American rare companies and and they were able to take it scale it and once that happened it was the economics that
1:27:38
took over right their cost of labor is is 10 times less your cost of power is a third so we really just could not compete with China if we were just copying that same technology stack again it was impossible the economics don't close and and still to this day the economics the economics don't close, >> but the geopolitical considerations sort of overweigh that. Like there's a lot of
1:27:57
Like there's a lot of defense companies that have to buy American and so the the indigenous supply chain is is is pulling forward. Correct. >> 100%.
1:28:06
But defense is only one part of the market, right?
1:28:08
At the end of the day, we want to beat China at scale.
1:28:09
We want to be the de facto rare producers around the world.
1:28:13
And as that demand as that demand surges, we have to be able to compete in a free market.
1:28:17
We can't just subsidize forever.
1:28:18
And I think the only way we do that and the only way we can win that next industrial era on on the merits of our technology is is if we develop that technology, right?
1:28:25
If we can drive the cost down.
1:28:26
And there's a lot of room for improvement, right?
1:28:28
Rare earth processing today is very inefficient.
1:28:30
There's no reason it should be done the way it's being done today.
1:28:33
It just happened to have been status quo in in the 80s and that that's what we're copying again.
1:28:36
So at SLOA, our vision is we need a new generation of much more effective technology and that's what we did with our first chemistry that we're now scaling in as one in Nevada and then we're planning to continue doing that as as we go forward. >> Yeah. Jordy, please.
1:28:49
>> Super impressive last year for you. >> Yeah.
1:28:53
>> I I I'm assuming it's been about a year since you were first on the show, but but uh how how have you grown the team?
1:28:58
Where where are you guys based?
1:28:58
It sounds like this new hub in Nevada uh is not where like the primary, you know, the the engineering is going to be, but but what's the what's the status of everything?
1:29:11
>> This building I'm in right now is Solo Alamita.
1:29:13
This is our engineering R&D pilot operations hub.
1:29:15
This is where we where we've been for the past year.
1:29:17
And then Nevada is just production.
1:29:18
That's just about three or four hours away from us today.
1:29:22
So this is still the the primary base of Siloa.
1:29:24
This is where we're developing a new generation of processes.
1:29:28
And then once a process is matured and ready, we we deploy it to our to our Nevada site. >> Amazing.
1:29:33
>> So uh you're you have the money.
1:29:33
You raised $75 million for this new facility.
1:29:39
500 tons of material for permanent magnets.
1:29:41
Um when is that coming online? Who will you sell it to?
1:29:46
is are you already doing bisdev deals with car car makers, robotics companies?
1:29:52
You mentioned defense being just one small piece of the market.
1:29:53
Is there a 800 pound gorilla in the uh on on the buying side that everyone sort of needs to, you know, figure out how to work with or is it a very diffuse market?
1:30:07
>> Well, defense is is a smaller part of the market, but it's a it's a very important part of the market, right?
1:30:10
So, Silico has two products.
1:30:12
So we make NDPR for the auto sector and also a little bit for defense.
1:30:15
And then we make samarium.
1:30:16
Samarium is almost exclusively used in defense. It's using F-35s etc.
1:30:21
using these high power high temperature magnets using guided missiles.
1:30:25
>> China is one of the only producers of Samarium.
1:30:27
China banned the export of it.
1:30:29
So there is this enormous shortage in the defense market right now for Samarium which is which is why we we launched that product and why we're selling that.
1:30:34
And then NDPR the majority of that goes to the auto sector right?
1:30:37
So we sell to magnet makers, major auto companies.
1:30:39
We sell to the defense market.
1:30:40
And all of that, all that starts at scale in July, July 4th of next year when we're commissioning Silk Watt for both of those products.
1:30:47
>> But it sounds like um there like the supply chain is so deep and complex that you're not calling Ford to get your magnets in the next Mustang Mache.
1:30:58
you're going to go to a, you know, a a a motor manufacturer, an electric motor manufacturer, and then they will wind up supplying to Ford or something like that. >> We we we do both.
1:31:08
So, after China's rail restrictions in April of April of last year, there was a significant shortage, and there still is a significant shortage of materials.
1:31:16
Ford, you mentioned, shut down a factory because they just could not procure enough of these materials.
1:31:21
So, the automakers we find are actually becoming very involved in the upstream.
1:31:25
They're actually sourcing the raw oxides and raw metals themselves.
1:31:28
So they can have a stockpile and have that access to that have control of that part of the supply chain.
1:31:32
They can then tow it through their magnet production partner.
1:31:33
So we work directly with automakers, we work with the magnet makers, directly with the with primes.
1:31:37
So we're involved across across all components of that of that downstream supply chain. >> I love it. I love it.
1:31:42
Well, congratulations and thank you so much.
1:31:46
Uh you you are announcing fundraising today. Is that correct? >> That is correct.
1:31:50
>> How much did you raise? >> 75 million.
1:31:56
Thank you for doing what you're doing. >> Amazing progress.
1:32:00
>> Have a great rest of your day. We'll talk to you soon. >> Talk soon. >> Goodbye.
1:32:04
>> Up next, >> what a year.
1:32:05
>> We got Jordan Nanos from Semi analysis coming back on the show.
1:32:10
>> We're going to get to the bottom of this whole AI thing.
1:32:11
Do you think there's anything there?
1:32:13
We'll we'll figure it out. Jordan, >> here he is.
1:32:17
>> This this AI thing people are talking about.
1:32:19
You think is there a there there? Yeah, I think so.
1:32:23
A little suspicious, but uh I've been using it. >> You've been using it? Okay.
1:32:30
But I use it eight hours a day. >> Check it out. No, things are good.
1:32:32
Uh reset on cluster max and then let's go into 3. 0.
1:32:39
Uh how long have you been working on this?
1:32:41
What does it take to actually rank all of the uh NeoClouds, which of course is a semi analys semi analysis coinage, which I think is awesome.
1:32:50
Um, but uh, and then how do you deal with all the all the pressure that you get from every Neocloud probably following you around and threatening to break your legs if they don't make it into platinum tier? >> Yeah.
1:33:02
Uh, the words in the Cambridge dictionary we found out as of last year.
1:33:06
So, we're proud of that one. >> Yeah. Coinage. That's so good. >> Yeah.
1:33:10
It's been four or five months of hard work on Cluster Max 3.
1:33:12
The last major version was November of last year.
1:33:17
So the big focus was uh the new B300 GPUs and 800 gig networks.
1:33:21
That was yeah a lot lot of work testing with everybody.
1:33:25
Neoclouds are at the center of the world right now.
1:33:28
So many of these companies that you guys have on the show >> raise tens hundreds of millions of dollars and then give like 90% of it to a Neocloud and trust them as a partner.
1:33:40
So >> the decision they make is super critical and you know we're proud to give our take on our experience doing hands-on testing and talking to all these guys. >> Yeah.
1:33:48
How much of it is there's a spec sheet that comes from a Neo cloud then you have to fact check that?
1:33:52
You actually have to run a test with them.
1:33:56
Are you also doing the occasional site visit and actually seeing what they what their infrastructure like what is the process for assessing the claims because uh every every Neocloud's going to say they're the best, right?
1:34:10
Cheapest, fastest, >> yeah, all the above, >> thinnest, newest, >> probably biggest, >> best looking, >> thickest, >> best dressed. Yeah.
1:34:19
>> Um, we have done some site visits.
1:34:19
I mean, it's part of our consulting business more so than the uh cluster max research itself.
1:34:26
I think for cluster max, yeah, it's it's a bit about validating that the claims that they're making publicly are real.
1:34:31
When we do our hands-on testing, >> it's also about getting in there and putting the cluster through its paces.
1:34:38
So we do a bunch of performance testing and most recently for this one we've also been digging in on some research of how to simulate failures and see how the providers respond.
1:34:47
>> Probably the most critical piece of like decision criteria that people use when it comes to really big providers who might have roughly the same GPUs, the same amount on the same schedule for a similar price is like who can I trust?
1:35:01
Who is going to be reliable?
1:35:03
>> And so we simulate failures.
1:35:03
We identify how long it takes them to identify when a failure occurs, how long it takes them to recover.
1:35:09
And the spread is massive.
1:35:11
Like uh top providers do this in 20 minutes end to end.
1:35:14
They have hot spare pools available so that they can make these changes.
1:35:17
Some of the providers down the list.
1:35:21
>> Um we simulate a failure or we actually induce real hardware failures on certain ones when they let us and it'll sit there for hours, days. They don't identify it.
1:35:28
We have to let them know to make the replacement.
1:35:30
When that happens, it takes hours, maybe even a day or longer sometimes.
1:35:34
That's like, you know, time is money in the world of NeoClouds.
1:35:38
And if people don't trust you to make these replacements, it's, you know, that's a big issue.
1:35:44
>> Is there a fear that they know you're going to be checking them out on a particular day, they're going to be on their best behavior, and you need to the next version of Cluster Max will be more of like a secret shopper program.
1:35:53
You'll come in dressed as just a a Neolab through a partner and then all of a sudden a failure happens and they're like, "Yeah, well, like I'm I'm I'm pretending to just be an average customer." >> Yeah.
1:36:07
I mean, that's why in our imagery we have the Michelin man uh cutting up a nice piece of NeoCloud to see how they're going to rate on the three stars. >> Yeah.
1:36:15
Well, to me to me it's notable that, you know, that this is these neoclouds are opting in and then they're having issues and they know they're having they they should know they're having issues or they should be paying more attention because they're getting graded and there's still that gap between a 20 minute fix and a multi-day fix or having to be notified that there's an error. I I would expect that.
1:36:39
Um I I think that's probably just because there's so much demand everywhere and they're saying like well I have this customer paying me like you know a billion dollars a year and then I have you who's just like grading me and technically like you know it's hard to
1:36:53
say like who's more important right is it um uh the customer should probably come first but at the same time this will uh impact future relationships overall outside of these like edge cases and and errors and and reliability and things like that Is there what can you say about like general performance? Like
1:37:10
Like is the is the gap growing between different providers or is it shrinking?
1:37:17
I I'm >> curious if it if it ties at all to what we're seeing like >> at the at the frontier whether it's closed or or open models where there's different points where you feel like the gap is shrinking or it's or it's growing and I'm wondering if there's any ties to this. >> Yeah, for sure.
1:37:33
So in terms of performance, I think the biggest thing that we see change between providers is the network design.
1:37:38
The difference in how you set up a network for 100,000 GPUs is quite different than 10,000 and even smaller.
1:37:44
And some providers are going with non-standard networks.
1:37:46
In other words, they don't buy the switches and the nicks from Nvidia.
1:37:51
Instead, they build them themselves.
1:37:54
I'm looking at Amazon EFA as an example there.
1:37:56
Um, but others are just deciding to go with Infiniband instead of Rocky.
1:38:01
two different Nvidia options.
1:38:02
Um, this can really affect performance.
1:38:06
The other thing is just configuration >> to the downside. >> Yeah. To the downside.
1:38:12
Um, and it's it's it's not necessarily that the physical hardware has any significant issue in it.
1:38:18
It's that let's say you are a customer and you're trying to use some open source piece of software.
1:38:22
So, uh, VLM or SG lang for inference comes out and they've got some new feature.
1:38:30
The people who have developed that software have likely been using an Nvidia network.
1:38:32
Almost exclusively they use Nvidia networks.
1:38:34
So how long does it take for you to get that software supported and performing well on your custom network?
1:38:41
I mean this delay can be months and again time is money.
1:38:43
So do these guys want to wait and think about their network for 4 months waiting for that new feature for KV cache offloading to be supported.
1:38:51
people get frustrated and so they want the NVIDIA standard on the networking and it's this balance between like a proper design up front while also having the skill set on the team to be able to set things up, make upgrades to software, to firmware, support people with what they're trying to do and um reliability plays into this too.
1:39:11
If you're constantly having hardware failures, like I said before, all of a sudden jobs are failing, they're not finishing, researchers are getting frustrated.
1:39:18
So I think reliability underpins a lot of that but software support, network design, even storage can really affect performance as well.
1:39:29
>> What is Nebus doing so well that they made it to platinum?
1:39:34
>> They're serving this middle tier of the market.
1:39:36
Cororeevee has set the standard.
1:39:38
I mean they are the best in terms of technology.
1:39:40
This reliability stuff I'm talking about.
1:39:42
They just have so much data for monitoring.
1:39:43
I mean, these guys deploy 10,000 GPUs a week at the peak when they're like building data centers.
1:39:51
And so that, you know, that's incredible, but like their balance sheet is full.
1:39:55
They've there's only so many people that you can marshall and resources to build out another gigawatt when they're going to 1. 5 and beyond.
1:40:04
So, Nebus has really capitalized on this middle tier of the market, which is not small.
1:40:08
Like I said, this is customers who are coming to us and saying, "Hey, I saw you write such good things about Cororeweave.
1:40:13
I just have $100 million.
1:40:15
I'm trying to give it to them.
1:40:15
They're telling me they can't accept it until May of next year because they're backed up.
1:40:20
And >> sure, >> therefore, Nebius has been capitalizing.
1:40:23
And they've also executed very well.
1:40:25
Like the technology that they've developed is strong.
1:40:26
We think that managed clusters are approaching like this feature complete world where it's hard to tell the difference in quality between Nebius and Corewave.
1:40:34
Um certainly our testing experience has been really solid on both of them.
1:40:38
And uh our experience with these providers is actually that they're moving to other aspects of the business.
1:40:44
So they're they're going into these big bare metal deals at which you know we are not ranking bare metal here. Yeah.
1:40:50
>> Nebas and core there are differences there.
1:40:53
>> And then inference endpoints, RL infrastructure, all sorts of stuff that we're going to be testing in the future where there is differences and and these guys are not necessarily the h household names and inference endpoints as the leaders right now.
1:41:04
They have the offerings but there's others that are ahead of them.
1:41:07
ahead of them. Yeah, this seems really relevant to that mids slot of the market uh inferenceheavy companies, Neolabs, but uh are the big labs able to take something valuable away from this or are they doing things at such a unique scale
1:41:23
that this is maybe a little less relevant because they're going to be talking to one of these uh one of these providers as like we're going to build something together and it it's going to be exactly to our specific specification. So, we're not even really
1:41:37
So, we're not even really interested in what your your your stock configuration is.
1:41:45
>> Look, um the Frontier Labs read ClusterMax.
1:41:47
They take it into consideration.
1:41:48
I'm not going to say they like outsource their thinking to us, but um they they certainly do their own due diligence. >> Yeah.
1:41:56
>> But, uh look, they they have everything.
1:41:59
They have their own self-build sites that are 100,000 to 400,000 GPUs in size.
1:42:03
And then they also have smaller clusters needed for both. Yeah.
1:42:05
because they're doing they're doing everything. That's very interesting.
1:42:09
>> So, it it comes into play.
1:42:09
I mean, especially in a world where there's so much demand, um this is why we've seen SpaceX basically pivot and become a Neocloud and sell to Anthropic and Google so successfully because those guys are buying from anybody who in this case could turn on 200,000 GPUs overnight.
1:42:26
And so therefore, they paid like a 3x premium to get in there. >> Yeah. Is SpaceX on Clustermax? I I actually didn't see.
1:42:34
>> Yeah, we threw them in the unavailable tier.
1:42:35
We were ready to test them when they are ready to have have us test it. Yeah. >> Okay. That's exciting.
1:42:39
Well, we're we're rooting for them to to make >> Last question from from me for now.
1:42:42
How h has there been like crazy Neo cloud talent wars?
1:42:48
Like I imagine the smart thing to do a year ago if you're spinning up a new Neocloud is just like try to poach as much as you can from Coreweave and like try to take over some of that um you know knowledge and expertise. >> Yeah.
1:43:04
And it's across the entire supply chain.
1:43:06
So we see this in like the SRRES you might think about that command like million-dollar salaries and a bunch of equity and get this idea that they should start a Neocloud for themselves.
1:43:14
And some have and some are being successful there kind of going out on their own.
1:43:18
But we also see this in like electricians, data center technicians, operators, like the um the all of this stuff depends on being able to build a facility and like uh salaries for electricians in Louisiana and uh Abene, Texas and all these other places that we're tracking are like up three to 5x.
1:43:39
Crusoe just came in and paid these guys so much more money >> and they're they're out of people. They need to train.
1:43:45
And I think this is just what we're seeing across the entire industry.
1:43:48
No matter what job we're talking about, people just need to be trained.
1:43:50
And that's the most the most successful Neoclouds that we are seeing have this pipeline to take talent from other related areas and get them contributing to the >> you know Neocloud management day operations world where a software engineer can start to work as an SR on one of these teams and somebody who's good at front end can work on backend performance and stuff like that.
1:44:09
And uh I expect we're going to see well we are definitely seeing cross trainining of people who do real work on the ground like electricians and stuff like that as well >> on that on that like reallocation of of capital labor resources.
1:44:23
Uh it feels like the first big narrative around the neocloud boom was like pivoting from crypto mining to AI inference uh and GPU compute.
1:44:34
Uh is there is there another wave coming?
1:44:36
Is there another source of Neocloud talent and energy and capital or is every Neocloud It feels like have all the crypto miners pivoted at this point?
1:44:48
Are there still some holding out?
1:44:50
>> Well, I think the next the next wave is is the like inference platforms, the the base 10s, the modals, like they're going to have to own >> chips.
1:44:58
Oh, and if they do, they become a neoc.
1:45:02
>> And how do you expect those players to do when as they move into spinning up their own sort of like power shells and and getting their own GPUs?
1:45:12
In some ways, it feels like they'll be very well positioned because they're already used to working with different providers and seeing the the pros and cons of different approaches.
1:45:23
But, um, what's your view?
1:45:27
I I agree with that and I think that the um people who have been customers about Neoclouds know exactly what a good service is that they should be offering and so I think they'll have good opinions.
1:45:35
Um I also think that they are driven to do this by like real customer demand and so in some ways they don't have an option.
1:45:42
They just have to buy this stuff for themselves.
1:45:44
I think they will you know be successful.
1:45:46
Some of them already are going to that mix of managed capacity versus self-build.
1:45:51
The other thing I I think you might be overlooking is the chip startups.
1:45:54
So like Cerebrus has become a NeoCloud.
1:45:58
Grock the remain co- after the Nvidia Aquaire is buying Nvidia GPUs and spinning up a NeoCloud.
1:46:03
Others like Samanova are doing this themselves.
1:46:05
We see OpenAI Jalapeno that's going to go into self-build sites.
1:46:09
I mean chip companies are like not only do I need to battle in the supply chain for allocation at like TSMC and the memory providers, I also need to go get my data centers set up.
1:46:19
I need to learn about construction.
1:46:21
and I need to learn about day2 operations.
1:46:22
Who's going to train people to repair a cerebrous wafer scale engine in their 250 megawatts of compute they're bringing on in the next couple years? >> Yeah. >> Well, it's it's them.
1:46:31
They need to build that capability in in house.
1:46:35
>> And frankly, I think they're going to realize a bunch of benefits to their margin profile for doing this instead of having this like stack of other people that you depend on. Do it all yourself.
1:46:45
I mean, do it end to end.
1:46:45
AWS, Google, they already prove you can do this with TPU and Tranium.
1:46:49
Y >> um I think this chip startups are going to do that as well.
1:46:53
>> And then last comment throwaway is just that there are lots of crypto miners to unlock and there's also these like legacy clouds that haven't gotten into GPUs.
1:47:03
I'm thinking about >> Cloudflare should be unlocked.
1:47:05
Aami, >> we just saw Iron Mountain, the guys who do all the tape backup, they're going to do GPUs.
1:47:11
I mean, all of these companies that have experience running data centers, >> why not run GPU data centers, too?
1:47:16
You should be getting into this as well.
1:47:18
So >> yeah, >> just going to keep seeing more and more people take this seriously and try to make money off it.
1:47:24
>> What is the state of the uh mixed GPU Neo cloud? How many are pure plays?
1:47:30
Their Nvidia shops or their AMD uh and then how many are trying to actually uh rack multiple chips?
1:47:37
Even if it's in multiple data centers, they they at least have both available and does that give them leverage like what what are you actually seeing?
1:47:45
And then what is the strategy >> for the guys who play it well?
1:47:48
It seems like they basically partner with Nvidia on the way up and then they start partnering with others to get some negotiation leverage and they do both.
1:47:58
>> You know, hyperscaler would be the goal where you can have a self-built chip program and you can also buy from Nvidia and get preference there.
1:48:03
But you got to be big to do that.
1:48:06
>> And um so people who try to do this from the start, I don't see them being as successful because you need that partner to help you grow to start. >> Yep.
1:48:13
And you know if Nvidia starts showing preference to certain people and not others, I mean that's like they make or break your business in some ways. >> Um >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Makes sense. >> Maybe another thing. >> Yeah. Please. >> Yeah.
1:48:29
Maybe another thing about the um uh like the custom chip programs and stuff is just that the uh the the way you build a NeoCloud is like driven by the workload.
1:48:39
And so big pre-training clusters can look a lot different than inference clusters.
1:48:43
And there's a whole bunch of people building for RL right now.
1:48:48
>> And I like we look at environments and sandboxes as a really big important thing that you need data centers full of chips that are not GPUs because they're mimicking the behavior of your phone or your laptop during training.
1:49:00
>> And uh so there's lots of ways to get into this space if you understand the workload.
1:49:05
you don't necessarily need to deploy the latest and greatest Nvidia GPUs.
1:49:09
>> And for what it's worth, it's going to be analysis.
1:49:10
We're going to be testing all of it in the coming months.
1:49:13
>> I think there was reporting that OpenAI bought like 10,000 Mac minis or something for maybe computer use stuff.
1:49:18
And you could imagine like a Neocloud of Android phones in the future, a NeoCloud of iPhones or something as people try and do more RL. Uh, fascinating stuff.
1:49:28
Congratulations on the launch. Very cool.
1:49:30
>> Excited to talk to you again.
1:49:30
We'll have >> our best to the team.
1:49:33
>> Yeah, >> thanks for having me, guys. We'll do it. >> See you soon. Goodbye.
1:49:37
>> Up next, Pioneer Labs co-founder and CEO Erica Alden Davidus. Welcome to the show. Let's bring in. How are you doing? >> Oh, welcome.
1:49:48
>> Thank you so much for taking the time.
1:49:49
>> Thank you for having me. Nice to meet you. Great to meet you.
1:49:51
>> Congratulations on the launch.
1:49:51
You took over the timeline, but for those who have been uh living under a rock on Earth, break it down for us. What are you building?
1:49:58
Introduce yourself, please. >> Yeah, so I'm Erica.
1:50:01
Um, I'm the CEO of Pioneer Labs where we engineer life for Mars so that we can go there and breathe and eat and have flowers and have an awesome life. >> Okay.
1:50:12
What >> Okay, I saw a picture of Mars on the timeline maybe a week ago.
1:50:15
It didn't have the orange filter. >> Okay.
1:50:19
>> What was going on there?
1:50:19
A lot of the the a lot of the the images of Mars that I've seen in the past have this sort of like orange coloring. This one didn't. What's going on there? was there.
1:50:29
Am I normally am I used to seeing Mars?
1:50:33
>> Is the red planet really red?
1:50:33
Yeah, that's your question. >> My question. >> Yeah, currently yes. >> Okay.
1:50:39
>> Yeah, Mars like sucks at the moment. >> Okay.
1:50:42
>> So, I mean Mars >> taking us back four billion years, Mars was really similar to Earth. It had liquid water.
1:50:49
It by all accounts like should have been a place that could have hosted life.
1:50:54
And and then three and a half billion years ago, like the two planets, their paths diverged and Earth, you know, evolved photosynthesis and we have this amazing biosphere that breathes out oxygen for us all day every day along with a million other things. >> Exactly.
1:51:11
We we and everyone ever alive is like so lucky to live in this, you know, live on the one example we know of of like a functional planet.
1:51:18
Um and Mars, it's uh it's a little >> it's a dysfunctional planet.
1:51:22
Yeah, it uh things went sideways for Mars.
1:51:27
>> Um it uh is now really cold.
1:51:27
Um and uh it it still has like the raw materials necessary for life.
1:51:34
So much of its northern hemisphere has perafrost.
1:51:37
So like just below the surface there's a glacier of water, but it's frozen.
1:51:44
>> Um and there's other problems, too.
1:51:44
Like the the dirt on Mars over billions of years of having a lot of surface radiation now has weird toxins in it that would be be very toxic for us if we grew potatoes in it directly. Got it.
1:51:59
>> So So there is is work to do to to go there at all or even more work to do to live there permanently or in in great numbers.
1:52:08
>> So how do we fix it and how do we make money off of it? There we go. >> Yeah.
1:52:14
So we over the past sort of two years we've tried to break this big problem of how do you make Mars nice down into an actionable first step.
1:52:25
>> So what we announced on Tuesday was that we had engineered the first microbe that can uh we can take it to Mars and it eats basically Mars dirt, water and air. That's it. Mhm.
1:52:37
>> And when it eats those materials, it turns them into bioplastics, which is this super useful category of materials that in in this case we suggest a good first application is to build houses with it.
1:52:50
So you can pack your starship with a equipment, you can go to Mars, you can unpack it, and you can uh continue to just convert local resources into materials to build houses and build like a small city in about 2 years.
1:53:02
Um because we now have life that eats the nutrients in the dirt and that's it. >> That's amazing.
1:53:10
Uh and I was joking earlier, the company is a nonprofit, but if I get in early, I imagine that there'll be a for-profit conversion at some point. Just kidding.
1:53:17
But why is the traditional path tro by open, isn't it? >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's the new playbook. But but what Yeah. Why? Why a nonprofit? >> Yeah.
1:53:28
Listen, there's no customer on Mars. >> Okay. So, makes sense. >> It's a little early.
1:53:32
I mean uh what's cool about this research is that many more people have started working on it just in the past couple years because the technology is maturing enormously.
1:53:45
Um and lots of other headwinds are sort of in favor of actually going to Mars and having there be biology.
1:53:50
Um notably there's an enormous amount of investment going into space data centers.
1:53:55
um along with all of the other reasons that that sort of Earth's launch capacity has increased over the past decade.
1:54:02
And so like I I think it's hard for the average everyday person to feel it, >> but like humans are going to space like materially. Yeah.
1:54:12
Um uh and and so like the the case is building for there being one day a customer on Mars who's going to care that you could make the planet not kill you immediately when you go outside.
1:54:26
um or even that in the first contained, you know, uh human mission, you can have food and water and um you know, oxygen to breathe and and stuff like that.
1:54:37
So, we're a nonprofit cuz it's early >> and I think if this stuff continues to mature at this rate, then yeah, uh maybe you get to the point where you can start executing in a in a few years.
1:54:47
So is the if I map out the next five years, I mean or 10 years, I imagine that the you know NASA will be doing important work.
1:54:58
They're the most recent visitor to Mars.
1:55:00
They put a helicopter there a year or two ago.
1:55:02
Um and and then also you have SpaceX building the you know private company capability to actually get there reliably economically on the future.
1:55:10
is the idea that if you if you have some breakthrough uh you would be fine with the implementation happening with either organization.
1:55:18
Is there sort of like a like a like an MIT license for some of what you do that might get picked up by NASA and experimented with further or do you want a deeper collaboration with uh with either side of that of the two organizations?
1:55:34
I I think uh the way you kind of describe this is like almost as if space is this monolith that it's like NASA and SpaceX do stuff. >> Yeah.
1:55:45
>> And and that's like not how it will be, right?
1:55:46
Like as we start doing more stuff in space, there will be many different sorts of industries that develop, right?
1:55:53
So >> NASA has like cornered the market, let's say, for like human space flight.
1:55:57
Like they are currently the best at it.
1:55:59
Um they're not the only one.
1:56:01
So they have now competition from others who like can also like successfully execute human missions.
1:56:10
Um SpaceX has is currently vastly wiping the floor with everyone in terms of launch capabilities.
1:56:16
Uh but again they too have competition from you know uh relativity and others.
1:56:21
So the the space like all all of these different components of space like are hopefully going to continue to mature into like a competitive ecosystem.
1:56:32
And I would say like the thing I'm doing which I'm excited about is like doing the biotech is its own totally separate independent slice that like I'm lucky to sort of get in early and there's a ton of lowhanging fruit.
1:56:46
But like that itself is like a whole another slice of the space ecosystem that I hope one day will have many competitors right all trying to figure out how to do it better.
1:56:57
And of course, we'll rely on networks of others to provide infrastructure and launch and human flight and like all of that. >> Yeah.
1:57:04
Uh, quickly, like what what are what what timelines are you working off of?
1:57:09
I think it's refreshing to ask somebody about space timelines that's, you know, not currently running a for-profit business that, you know, is public or needs to be public. Uh, >> yeah, quite.
1:57:21
So, I I don't have don't have valuation to to uh guide my answer. >> Um, yeah.
1:57:26
So we've uh it took us about two years to make this first organism for Mars.
1:57:31
Um there are five organisms we need to make to like have a way to go to Mars and scalably make like livable area on Mars.
1:57:43
And the sort of general timeline for that is I think we will have some version of all five of those by the end of the next 3 years which puts us in like 2029ish.
1:57:53
M >> um there's a launch window in 2028.
1:57:55
Um NASA's doing some stuff.
1:57:59
It would be really awesome to also have like a search for life and a test that we can grow a first Earth organism >> like in that 2028 launch window.
1:58:08
There's another launch window early 2031.
1:58:14
Um and that's the one where maybe we could actually like go there and and and demonstrate something.
1:58:19
Um, and SpaceX, I would be shocked if they don't try to get to Mars in 2028.
1:58:26
>> Um, but I think they might succeed in 2031. >> Yeah.
1:58:30
>> Um, >> I mean, longer term, I think like technology broadly is accelerating >> and so there's a lot of investment going into space close to Earth and on the moon.
1:58:41
Um, and and much of the interest in the moon is because it's like it's like the close testing ground for going farther out.
1:58:52
>> But there's a lot of reasons why um the moon itself uh is not necessarily the spot we want to set up shop forever.
1:58:59
It has like fewer natural resources to uh to like make use of than other places we could go, including Mars.
1:59:07
And so I would not be surprised if we start seeing, you know, first human mission to Mars in the 2030s and like substantial buildout of like the robotic uh precursors to that like sooner. >> Yeah.
1:59:20
Uh how do how do you grapple with uh NASA's historical preference for leave no trace when going to uh a celestial body?
1:59:30
They, you know, build the rover in a clean room.
1:59:34
So there's no uh you know earth microbes or anything.
1:59:40
>> I think we could be talking about pioneer safety.
1:59:41
The idea of dropping a bunch of micro organisms on a faroff planet and saying have at it. >> Yeah.
1:59:49
Some people are worried about sci-fi scenarios where you know >> becomes more powerful than us.
1:59:54
>> Becomes more powerful and they they decide to to come back.
1:59:57
>> Maybe maybe >> left you left me here to die. >> Yeah. Yeah. And I survived.
2:00:00
But yeah, I mean, how do you deal with like I don't know if there's laws around what you can do, if there's just conventions.
2:00:07
There's certainly people that are impassioned on both sides.
2:00:11
I super excited about this, but it is a departure from the way humanity has been engaging with Mars to date.
2:00:19
>> That's absolutely right.
2:00:19
So, I mean, we've gone to Mar the the narrative for why we've gone to Mars for the past 20 years has been searching for life. >> Yeah.
2:00:28
And so going there with the intention of like having humans live there for example is a huge philosophical departure um that there's a lot of inertia like against that and for that obviously like many people want to go to Mars it'd be super awesome and like kind of inevitable >> um in terms of law.
2:00:46
So uh basically the law that governs space is like relatively underdeveloped and all of the activity all the private space activity is uh stressing the system and I I think folks recognize that like we need to think a lot more about space law.
2:01:06
Um there's a line in the 1970 outer space treaty which I kid you not is like kind of the most recent like big outer space like law effort.
2:01:16
Um and the line says basically thou shalt not contaminate planetary bodies um with harmful not harmfully contaminate planetary bodies. Sure.
2:01:27
Which at the time when they wrote that that meant thou shalt not test nukes in space, spread radioactive stuff everywhere.
2:01:34
Um that has now been in the modern era interpreted to also mean like don't contaminate >> places that might have life with earth life.
2:01:42
like don't put invasive species places willy-nilly, which is a really important thing to do.
2:01:47
Um, and it poses a big problem for the first human mission because humans are covered with bacteria.
2:01:56
We have a skin microbiome and a mouth microbiome and a gut microbiome that is uh like we can't be sterilized in the way that robotic science missions have been sterilized to date.
2:02:08
And so there's a body called co-spar amongst other organizations um that are trying to figure out what the policy should be to like assess risk um when we have the first human mission.
2:02:21
Um and actually as part of our announcement, we um published a paper that's like a suggested framework for how to gather data on like here's an organism we're proposing to send to Mars.
2:02:35
Let's actually measure whether or not it could possibly be invasive. Yeah.
2:02:42
>> Which is possible to do for like the biio manufacturing organisms we've made because they're like well characterized.
2:02:49
You can take measurements.
2:02:50
>> And spoiler, if this organism gets out of its bioreactor, it's going to be so dead, >> like so fast that it can't even evolve.
2:02:58
So like >> this is not the one you would worry about.
2:03:01
Um but but even with that example like it's like unclear how to apply that to humans like you know our microbiomes can't be rigorously safety characterized like in that same way.
2:03:14
>> And so the the discussion continues about how to handle that because it like really would suck >> to go to Mars and and interfere with life there if it exists which is like not looking likely but still is a big a big concern.
2:03:26
Well, I look I look forward to your future speeches at the UN General Assembly.
2:03:30
I'm sure you'll be there uh breaking it down for everyone with all the progress you've made.
2:03:34
But uh congratulations on on everything. >> Yeah.
2:03:38
Really, really cool point of view. >> Yeah. What? Yeah.
2:03:39
What a >> come back on as you make progress. >> Yeah.
2:03:41
We'd love to talk again soon.
2:03:44
>> Have a have a great rest of your day. >> Cheers. Bye. >> Goodbye.
2:03:47
Uh one last piece of car news. >> One more. >> Twist my arm.
2:03:57
Porsche is working on a successor to the 918 Spider hybrid supercar and it will be powered by an engine not seen since the 60s.
2:04:06
That's according to Germany Germany's Hundles blot which reports that a new model will be powered by a flat 8 engine, eight cylinders.
2:04:14
The suspected price tag half a million e $575,000 US.
2:04:22
Uh the reporting also states that the project is known inside Porsche as code name S1 and could be revealed to investors as early as October 7th, just 5 days or 7 days after the Tesla Roadster announcement.
2:04:36
Porsche will be responding with a with a >> There's going to be so much demand for this, it makes me sick. >> Yeah.
2:04:46
>> The suspected price tag of $575,000.
2:04:50
I mean, this thing's going to trade. Yeah. >> Up.
2:04:52
Uh I would expect it to trade up at least 2x instantly. Probably. >> Yeah.
2:04:58
>> Uh hard hard to say, but I mean the the we have no idea what it looks like.
2:05:01
These are just like madeup renders.
2:05:05
>> Some of these are are I think uh based on the the previous project that they were uh potentially working on, which was an EV successor to the 918 Spider.
2:05:15
The the lineage with Porsche is the Carrera GT, then the 918.
2:05:17
Everyone is waiting for the next thing, the next supercar, the next really special uh unique car not in the N not built on the 911 platform. Uh this should be it.
2:05:29
Although of course there's a lot of 911 styling and heritage in there.
2:05:31
Um but yes, if it's anything like what they're pitching here, it's going to fly off the shelves.
2:05:37
Do you think they do a manual?
2:05:39
Are they going to go that far?
2:05:39
If they ripped out the EV, they went to the the flat 8 uh you know, combustion engine, are they doing turbos?
2:05:46
Are they doing naturally aspirated?
2:05:48
Are they going to go as far as giving somebody just, you know, pretty close to Carrera GT experience? I don't know. We'll see.
2:05:57
It's going to be exciting. >> Yeah.
2:05:58
A lot of questions, but I can't wait. >> I can't wait. >> I can't wait.
2:06:03
>> Was there anything else we need to talk about?
2:06:04
Congratulations to Huberman Lab.
2:06:06
Uh, Andrew Huberman is number one on the New York Times bestsellers and advice, how to, and miscellaneous for protocols, an operating manual for the human body.
2:06:16
You can go pick it up everywhere books are sold.
2:06:18
And I think that's it for today, Jordy. >> That's our show.
2:06:23
It's been an honor and a privilege and we'll be we will be back.
2:06:28
>> There's also a new eight. The pod 6 is live.
2:06:30
The sixth generation of Eight Sleeps intelligent sleep system redesigned for every kind of bed.
2:06:34
The new hub is small enough to fit under your bed frame. More powerful than ever.
2:06:40
Nine times as many sensors. >> You and your tie.
2:06:43
Go smash the gong and we'll be out.
2:06:47
>> Okay, Tyler's going to do it.
2:06:47
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Sign up for our newsletter at tbpn.
2:06:52
com and we'll see you tomorrow. Bye.