0:01
you know America used to be the world's Dream Factory right we did everything what happened that is the world we live in a world where we Fear the Future instead of embracing it and trying to exercise some level of control over it
Search this video
0:18
we are currently witnessing the birth of maybe one of the most powerful Technologies asimus sound spark optimists make money someone who is looking up at the sky and at possib ability and you can be an up Wier we choose to go to the mood not because
0:33
it's easy but because it's hard some people would say well that's a reason not to go because we can't do it today but that doesn't mean we can't do it tomorrow stasis is death movement is life I do not lose faith in the power of
0:50
human freedom and human creativity for all of our problems I would never short the United States of America ever well hello everybody and welcome to yet another infinite Loops I am super excited today and I've been looking forward to my current guest for a long
1:12
time I have with me James pukas the policy analyst and thewit Wallace fellow of the American Enterprise Institute author of the newsletter faster please which I highly recommend you read and the author of published today I'm very honored that you've chosen to join me on
1:33
the day of the book's publication of the conservative futurist how to create the Sci-Fi world we were all promised James Jim welcome which do you prefer uh J Jim is fine we can be uh we can be Jim and Jim today that that would be delightful
1:50
I love it I love it so the gyms are gonna I have a I have a a caveat that I have to confess at the top of our interview and that is I am a raging up Wier and so I might not be as uh balanced in in where I want to take this conversation uh but let's let's start
2:12
out with you know America used to be the world's Dream Factory right we had like we did everything we I have a Canadian friend who said you know and we might have had a couple of glasses of wine when he made this statement but he was
2:25
like you know what I [ __ ] love Americans he goes everyone up here is kind of like no we shouldn't do that or we shouldn't do that and this is back in the 90s and you say you Americans it's like no we're going to build it bigger
2:36
faster stronger what happened uh that that question and understanding that question you know is a big chunk of the book because most people when they when they are nostalgic about the past that element of we used to be able to do great things the
2:59
example example I I love pointing to is you is a uh is political campaign commercials when they'll show the great the Great Moments of the past uh and they'll show uh the you know show the uh you know you know Bridges and highways
3:13
then they'll show the Apollo launch and then it like jumps from the Apollo launch to uh you know maybe they show a computer I don't know but it seems like all those great things were things of the past and I think that just didn't happen by accident I think it is a it is
3:32
a decision that we made as a society to focus more on risks on the downsides of economic growth including the environmental risks I think that's this attitude supported by a culture that gave us and particularly and I don't think it's ins significant our art form
3:56
that talks about the future is science fiction and we've had a science fiction that has painted pictures of dystopia and Gloom it is no Jim my friend Jim it is no it is no coincidence it is no coincidence that we've had this AI
4:12
breakthrough which we all got to enjoy for about 30 minutes and then after 30 minutes came the stories about massive job loss and the robots killing us after they take our jobs and the example in every newspaper article was it could be a Terminator like scenario
4:33
where the robots and the AI become sensient and decide to eliminate mankind that is the world we live in a world where we Fear the Future instead of embracing it and trying to exercise some level of control over it and by control I mean solving problems
4:55
through economic growth and technological progress and then we'll see what happens Boy again like I said I I I uh I am a uh raging up Wier I'm also the chairman of stability AI which is the largest uh open- Source uh foundational model
5:16
Building Company in the world and like the whole AI think just drives me to the point of distraction like we are currently in my opinion uh we are currently witnessing the birth of maybe one of the most powerful Technologies but it's a tool
5:36
that we can amplify human intelligence and creativity with it is a tool for medical breakthroughs for teaching kids for taking care of Elders instead of putting them away in a room with nothing to look at and the use cases on the
5:53
positive side are are Limitless I am not panish or panglossian about this do I believe that AI will also present a new set of problems of course it will anything that advances us as a species always comes along with new problems hopefully better problems but we really
6:16
the when I see the whole precautionary principle being invoked the whole no we best not do that it just to me it reeks of stasis and death right this this attitude that no with progress is bad the future is bad and I completely agree about sci-fi I'm a huge sci-fi nerd and
6:42
like when getting ready for this uh chat I just started like looking at some of sci-fi over the last you know 30 40 years and it all is just one big ellish dystopia and are you familiar with the website what the hell happened in 1971 I
7:01
am not okay it's basically advancing our what I think is our mutual view that like we used to be you know we had JFK we we choose to go to the mood not because it's easy but because it's hard we are going to do that and like we didn't know how to get to the mood but
7:18
we needed that we had to invent stuff there were things that need to be invented if it wasn't all off the shelf in fact in that famous speech that he gave at Rice University he said uh you know we're gonna have to invent a lot of
7:31
things that's that's why it's not going to happen today uh and some people would say well that's a reason not to go because we can't do it today but that doesn't mean we can't do it tomorrow totally agree and I mean there's just so many ways that I I want
7:48
to uh begin the conversation let's start with your book okay so it it's really a blueprint and but I also have the question like the the old political lab I think are Antiquated and and they really don't describe where people find
8:04
themselves today and that's why I love your Embrace of this French Revolution term up Wier down Wier um so why did you choose to call it the conservative future futurist rather than you know the up Wier I know you I know why you didn't
8:20
choose up Wier because nobody knows what that is but but but but why why you sound like you sound like the book company nobody knows what it is no I well I wanted to because I you know to me it was kind of like a a truth in labeling like I you know listen I I'm
8:40
a conservative and we can talk about what that means because you who knows what that means uh right now people have different views but I consider myself a conservative I work at a a center right think tank so I'm not going to pretend
8:54
that you know that that's not where I'm where I'm coming from but I think what's really important is that if you think we humans have the tools or should build the tools and have the the agency and have enough wisdom to solve problems and create a better
9:13
future that we would want to live in then that that makes you to me not just someone of the left of the right but someone who transcends those labels someone who is looking up at the sky and possibility and you could be an up Wier and again I think there are up
9:32
wiers on the right I think they're on the left just like I think there are down wiers on both sides people who say you know what uh technology is only going to make our life worse uh we need to close that we need to close our economy we need to be a drawbridge up
9:48
Society uh Tech the disruption that progress and technological change of growth will inherently cause just not worth it again can find those people on the both the left and the right absolutely and and that's why I think that those are no longer useful terms
10:06
right and and one of the things that I love about your approach in this book with the blueprint is this notion of up Wier vers down so as I said I'm a raging up Wier and and I'm Gonna Let You Define that because I love the terms I think
10:22
they're far better because like we we we don't need the old ideology to say like you know we're programmed a certain way right and and if you make it a left or a right if you're programmed left or right you're go to embrace that particular
10:39
dogma and that's why I love the introduction of the old and yet new to many firm of up Wier and down Wier give me the classical down Wier first I think the classical down Wier really is better safe than sorry that that that should be
10:58
what guides us and you know if you're if you're looking for a shorthand sort of way to re to re a question to ask to reveal someone as a down Wier you can ask them about where do they stand on nuclear energy and if and if the first
11:15
thing they say is it's when I've done this I hear a scrambling for negative things um it's uh we it's too expensive it's what are we going to do with the waste uh but and when you really dig down to it a lot people for instance who don't like nuclear they worry that it
11:32
will work that it will increase economic growth that it will increase consumption because they're against all those things because they view us as as a society of limits a society of constraints and we're and we're eventually we'll run out
11:46
of anything and the other issue I I I'd like to point out to people what do you think about the issue of Housing and people who are like classic Nim bees they know the we don't want to change change the character of the neighborhood and you know and what if
12:02
you know what you know if they're if they're Hest what if the wrong kind of people move in and I'll find that on on those two issues on energy and housing you can find up wiers on the left and the right and down wiers on the left and
12:15
the right and while it seems it it seems to be like that all all down wiers are sort of different they all have their their own little you know reasons for not liking these policies in a way all up wiers I find are fundamentally the same is that we believe they believe we
12:32
can do stuff that we're not stuck and if we're stuck it's a that's a problem that's a problem we need to solve so uh those two issues uh I I use often as well uh I sort of as a I don't like either or deterministic thinking for the most part because life is
12:53
probabil probabilistic not deterministic in my opinion but uh one of the things that I do like to ask people like uh climate change for example um if if you're worried about climate change and by the way it's perfectly reasonable to
13:09
be that way but then you want to ask the next question which is oh so you're in favor of nuclear power then right and when when when you get a resounding no then then you get the difference between what I call what I adore the scientific method and what I
13:30
despise scientism talk about that for a little bit I think the the per to me like the perfect example of the exact scenario you just talked about um is and how it also relates to the notion of you know of sci-fi uh there was recently a big
13:52
budget TV series on Apple called extrapolation so I'm watching this extrapolations expecting given who made it to be a very uh a very you know rooted in real and real science not pseudo science but real science uh and it was a a it was a it was a a a limited
14:15
series star studed cast it was supposed to show climate change de decade by decade and decade by decade uh they never mentioned nuclear energy not forget about nuclear fusion they they didn't mention nuclear fion like it never came up it
14:33
immediately immediately embraced the idea that the world was going to hell we should put businessmen on trial and yeah we're going to survive but only by you know the skin of RT uh and that boy that and that was just made so even though
14:49
we've had that we have I think this emerging nuclear Renaissance we have interesting develops and developments in these smaller reactors we've had this this these huge advances in Fusion none of it penetrated the filter which is the future can't be better oh and by the way
15:09
AI we really can't do that either because it uses too much energy so sorry it it it baffles me um because you're right uh I I I call myself a rational Optimist uh because that means that I am fully aware that uh the progress that we will make will come
15:33
with problems if you if you're not then you're not thinking about it seriously but the the the idea this what I looked at as kind of this aifi uh belief system that is just bizarre to me that you know Carl poer talked about this endlessly you know
15:53
possibilities of the future are infinite he says it is our duty it's our moral duty to be optimistic about things because if we're not it will lead to basically ensuring Ru for society but let's also note this is nothing new with
16:11
Humanity the malthusian Cults uh the club of Rome what we've been thinking this way a long long time and and uh David Deutsch in his book The Beginning of infinity covers this I think brilliantly and and he talks about the the failed civil
16:29
a of the past were so poor they were so fragile they had no technology and it seems to me that like the world economic Forum seems to be making their platform oh let's go back to that what do you think is do you think it's ideological
16:46
one of my one thesis that I have is that you're seeing all this Doom about things like AI because follow the money follow the power AI is going to be very troubling in my my opinion to people who are currently in power because it's going to uncover lots of naked Emperors
17:05
and then when you put it in that context well of course if I'm currently on top of the Heap I'm the king of the world of course I'm GNA say it's going to kill everybody because I don't want to give up my power do you think that's just a
17:17
little too crazy of me to think that way to me there is there's no way not to expect there to be listen and you know we can talk about lots of different Technologies things are going on in space we've talked about energy uh you know obviously AI is the
17:32
thing which really seems like it's what they what economists call a general purpose technology something significant that will just diffuse throughout the entire economy and if it is what I what I think it is what I what I think we all should hope it is it is going to be
17:48
disruptive to everything it's going to be disruptive to how we do our jobs it's going to be disruptive to How We Do Science how we sell products how we govern a country uh and and and to think if it is as disruptive as what we think that the
18:04
exact same winners of the last phase of of our society will be the exact same people I tend not to think so and that means people who had one way of governing a country one way of running for an election that way may need to
18:22
change uh so and people I mean that's I me I think when you get down to it I mean we we have I think built into us this aversion many of us aversion to taking big risks you know we value losses more than gains you know these behavioral economists will talk about a
18:40
status quo bias and I think that I think that's built into us and when you H when Humanity had no examples of progress I can understand why those biases would be so powerful but as the saying goes at least for you know for modern modern
18:57
society we see nothing but progress behind us why should we expect nothing but catastrophe ahead of us so I I think that's I think we're hardwired to some degree but I also think we have a lot of people for ideology making that case appealing really to our very worst
19:20
hardwired impulses and when you have also have people I think more to get to your point when you have people I I don't like being a super super skeptic would all the people who already have the AI large language models say uh why you grandfather Us in to the system and
19:40
those other guys you gota be careful of them they're not responsible like us we better get the um you know the uh you know the the the AI agency we better get that up and running so it can you know evaluate over many months and years
19:56
other AI models you know the risky ones not ours uh I am a little skeptical that that's an incumbent gaming the system you know for their for their own Advantage I I I I don't think I'm a 100% sure of that but I I wouldn't rule it
20:11
out I think uh I try to think probabilistically about all these things and I think the probabilities are far greater than 50% that that is one of the driving things going on here regulatory capture is as old as politics and unfortunately people just gotten much
20:29
much better at it uh special pleading and it as you say you're absolutely right it's all the people who already have the large language models who say oh we better regulate this stuff and of course if I've got like every if I got a
20:45
multimodal Ai and I have bad intentions of course I'm GNA ask to be regulated I'm gonna beg to be regulated because I want to keep the real innovators away right I mean that's they e they have both the models and they have the very nice offices in Washington DC full of
21:06
very very smart highly highly trained professionals ready to work the system so they they have the technology and and they and they have that as well and you know a startup uh they're working on the technology and they certainly don't have you know a
21:22
fancy office building near Capitol Hill ready to descend on Congress and make the case why they should why why the regulations uh you know should should really crack down the other guy because you know they they can they can
21:35
manipulate the system they have the money they have the money to weather the any kind of regulatory storm the startups don't and and the the thing that uh puzzles me is that uh we we here in the United States are living breathing
21:53
examples of up uh of an up up mentality right of an upwing mentality uh America basically was founded by people there's a good book well actually the title is is the book really it's called The hypomanic Edge and it talks about why uh a little craziness made America the
22:14
greatest country in the world and and he posits his thesis that okay so who who are we populated by well the people who came here willingly right they weren't brought here in servitude but those who came here willingly what kind of person
22:30
was that well that was the kind of person who was willing to leave everything they knew their family their home country behind in search of a better life so in other words they were risk seeking people who came to this country not risk averse people I joke
22:46
with all my Canadian friends that all the risk averse people moved up there when we had our little uh cousins quarrel with Great Britain and and but but there is something to that right we we and we also had the rule of law we
23:01
also had the right of freedom of speech and all of those things and so it puzzles me that when we look at the massive accomplishments of the United States of you know space travel of the C for polio of you know the the rapit uh uh coming up with uh the uh the
23:23
technology for a coid uh cure these things should in my opinion just be so patently obvious to anyone looking and then like oh we have a border crisis CH who are all those people who are trying to get into America wait a minute they're all Venezuelans wasn't Venezuela
23:42
the richest country in Latin America at one point what changed I I think there's I think there is a great a great misunderstanding of like why you know why America has been successful and to not learn those lessons then you certainly cannot
24:04
understand what is what is happening right now and I think listen I I I think I I don't much I I I use the phrase I don't kind of like the phrase we talk about this especially the past 50 years calling it a great stagnation we there's been progress in this country
24:22
we have created things the internet uh the Shale Revolution em you know Mna mRNA vaccines you know genetic editing but that was done into the headwind a tremendous headwinds which we have created through I through and you know
24:40
through regulation I think not doing some things government should do proactively like enough sort of kind of basic science research and we still have made a lot of progress and rather than looking at that as here's kind of what works which is a vibrant free enterprise
25:00
system plus government doing well what it's supposed to do put those two things together uh with a with with what should be a culture embracing embracing possibility that I really think there is nothing we can do but that but instead
25:21
but I was hoping I was hoping people would look at the pandemic and say you know what even though there were a million white papers about the pandemic about here's what here's what's you know here's what could happen here's what we
25:33
should be doing millions of millions of you know high level meetings and despite the fact that we've all seen you know all these terrible you know outbreak movies pandemic movies zombie apocalypse movies despite all that happening we
25:47
still didn't seem very prepared for that pandemic well maybe that's just how humans are we're very good at very bad at preparing for unlikely events or events that happen but rarely but so what do what do we have sort of been in our pocket rich country technologically
26:04
advanced country okay be great if we had more if we that we already had like tons of ventilators and masks we don't so know what we're going to do we're going to go create a vacine and record time that's what we're going to do and that
26:16
was that was government doing what it can do the private sector doing what it can do working together each sort of in the role that it's best at and I and that that should be a powerful lesson about about why it's good to be at the
26:30
technological Frontier and be able to push that Frontier forward and I don't maybe we're still too close to the pandemic and we're still caught up in s of the debates of the time but I hope with a little bit of room we can look back at that and and say well
26:47
technological uh proficiency helps solve that problem maybe the way we deal with climate change isn't everybody living a worse life but making sure we have an economy that can generate maybe the maybe the climate change problem is
27:01
really a clean energy problem so we have to we have to create better ways to create abundant clean energy including to power the giant machines which can suck the carbon back out of the sky which to me seems a lot more likely that than it's all lowering our living
27:17
standards yeah and uh I I agree entirely and and like I said I'm I'm a raving up Wier and and so I I I do try to take the other side I always try to feel man the other side's argument because if I try to just everyone is you know beating up
27:37
straw man right and like come on try to steal man the other argument try to understand where they're coming from why they're coming from it it's difficult in with the extreme sort of death Cults I I just don't get it right but uh the the if I assume if I if if I try to assume
27:59
that they're genuinely coming from a place of sincerity then then I just have to wonder okay again are are you studying history are you studying the uh advances that we've made as you rightly point out no yeah we didn't plan for a p a pandemic like that
28:20
well but you're right we don't normally plan for very uh rare events occur but the the the story that I find fascinating that you highlight is look at how quickly we came up with the MRNA technology platform and by the way it's
28:40
not going to be just a great uh platform for coid it's going to be a great uh platform for malaria for dissenter for a huge number of problems that are plaguing the world and and so obviously we're we're incredibly uh sympatico on
28:58
on being uh you Pro progress Pro free enterprise Pro entrepreneurship let's talk a little bit about how we get there because like my new company oasy venturers I created that company to address this right to to say we are way too pessimistic about our
29:19
future I have five grand children I I want I I can't tell you how deeply I want the world to be a vastly better place for the world they grow up in and and so to me that also becomes how do we reframe this because you know we we look
29:40
at like the JFK speech we look at Walt Disney and tomorrow land at we look at uh you know the World's Fair uh and and all of it was so incredibly optimistic so the World of Tomorrow is amazing how how do we begin reframing redoing the narrative I have my own ideas but I
30:03
want to hear yours well I'm very interest in your ideas uh listen I think to me like the best the and this is not the only thing I'll mention some other things certainly the best thing we can do is show that what we're talking about is possible and what
30:21
I started writing this book it was before uh what we what we've seen with generative AI uh it was but when I started running it we didn't have the we didn't have the vaccines yet so you know when I started running I was think you
30:35
boy you know I could really use a little Tailwind from actual Tech the actual technology and then you know as I wrote it that's that sort of Tailwind appeared so I think that's why I think this is a great moment because one first I can we
30:47
can point to actual technologies that may have a huge impact it's not just pointing to social media platforms and ride sharing uh as important as maybe those are but we can point to we can point to sort of big sort of classic advances that we've wanted for decades
31:05
which may be starting to happen uh from AI to be able to build an orbital economy and be able to get the get the space much more cheaply so I think that is a that is a huge tail with I think actually demonstrating that an economy can grow faster and benefit everyone
31:24
getting the policies in place to help that Ed by sort of the productivity benefits of these uh the tail listen uh people are you know we talk a lot inequality and people who talk about late capitalism and and and that's all more growth will get you is more
31:40
inequality we had very we had a big increase inequality in the 1990s but I didn't hear this late capitalism stuff why because it was so fast and wages were Rising so fast for everybody people did not care if you could point to someone else who got even richer you
31:56
looked in your life like hey I seem to be doing a lot better and employment's really low and my real income's going up pretty fast and that's what people focused on so I think actually be able to generate that growth but I think the
32:09
cultural aspect is important and you know if I could wave a magic wand and have Hollywood fine I I I watch all those crazy dystopian movies too I enjoy them but I would like something else too I I mean and I loved it what a show
32:26
which I don't find dystopian some people might but I don't which is the series The expanse it was on the Sci-Fi Network and then they canceled it and then Jeff Bezos loved it you know Amazon picked it up uh and then ran it for a few more seasons I I listen if our if our
32:46
entrepreneurs our super entrepreneurs want a world in which they can do their thing and others can do their thing uh they need a call culture that supported they might want to think about financing more kind of media projects that are pro entrepreneurship
33:05
Ro growth it doesn't mean there the these are going to be boring movies with no tension there're can to still be tension but they have a a fundamental message about progress I would like to see that um I would like to see World fairs
33:19
you know uh you know I would like to see you know what a modern world fair Pro technology in the US movie studios helping create it I would like to see what that would look like I'm willing to give that a shot and you I'll let you
33:37
give me my ideas I just want to mention one minor idea um because because it drives me crazy this idea of the Doomsday Clock we have this Doomsday Clock put out by the bulletin of atomic scientists you know how many minutes are we away from the night of total
33:52
catastrophe Humanity being wiped out began during the Cold War but it sort of has expanded its portfolio through the decades so it's not just worrying about nuclear war it's worried about climate change and inequality and Ai and how
34:09
many minutes I think right now we're 90 seconds to midnight I would and and again every time they change it it's this totally subjective thing it gets a it gets a bunch of you know press how many minutes to midnight I would I propose something else I propose what I
34:23
call the Genesis clock you know a clock about new life and new beginnings and instead of being how many minutes to midnight how many minutes are we from dawn from the dawn of a of a a new age of abundance and prosperity and I and I
34:39
and I and I list a bunch of metrics that would help me decide uh still somewhat subjective how many minutes from dawn you know how many people are in deep poverty still if that's decreasing well we move closer to Dawn uh you know what what do what do our cancer cures look
34:55
like where are we in AI uh do we have driverless cars yet so we can so we can reduce tra all I just I come up with all these different sort of criteria to help evaluate how close we are to I think a a a world of Greater abundance less poverty because this
35:12
isn't the book just isn't about us doing well in the United States I am not going to tell people who live in poverty that they cannot live like Europeans and Americans and Japanese environmentalists say that is a reality they to accept they will never
35:28
Live Like Us in fact we shouldn't even live like us I no way I think that is a loser message that is a message that will never be accepted it is a dead end and even better we don't have to do it that doesn't have to be the path we can
35:41
actually have a path where we all live better together I could not agree with you more I love the Genesis clock in fact if I may I get your permission to steal that from you and like create create one and and and turn it to you and some of your
36:00
ideas for how we how we move it forward and back I love that yeah because that is that you're in the right framework of reframing right and and people don't understand how important the frame we look at things through is to us and our
36:17
emotions right like I always give the example when they first came up with uh life insurance they called it death Insurance because that's what it was for it was for when you die so they were quite literal and they said this is death Insurance how many policies did
36:31
they sell like none death insurance guy comes to the front door I'm not answering the door turning off the lights and being quiet I'm not I'm not here we reframed it to life insurance trillion dollar industry that's great so
36:47
so the the framing is so important and like ohanas Adventures we have an infinite films Division and we have an infinite publishing infinite books division we're publishing we hope to I shouldn't speak out of turn here but there's a incredibly talented author who
37:06
his answer to Black Mirror was to write white mirror and it's all stories about that you're asking for and because I truly and deeply believe that we've got to reframe first and we've got to get people to and I love the Genesis clock
37:23
that is such a great idea because the the other one I Evolution made a fear the central emotion that dominates us I think and and rightly so by the way because it when we were huning and Gathering and we saw the bushes rustling we're the descendants of the folks who
37:42
ran away okay because the there's a deeply ared wire that we we should be aware of it we yes totally because the brave ones who said oh let's go check that out well they got eaten by the saber TR tiger so so we really have to
37:58
remember right that we're the descendants of the ones that ran away it's deeply wired into our systems so that's what you know that's why pessimism sounds smart right but it's not it's quite the opposite you know I I I have to joke you know pess pessimists
38:15
sound smart optimists make money and and so like the but it isn't just about money it's about in fact that should be the lesser of our concerns progress you rightly point out we should be for Global progress we should count it as a massive win when a million people emerge
38:34
from poverty and and like oh but you know that's not here and that's not well so what right that's that that's a very that is that is you're when you make when someone makes that statement like about it it doesn't matter that you know
38:50
the number of people you know that that the really a secular Miracle the decline in really deep poverty someone who says like you know what do I care they're making a very disturbing statement about themselves and their preferences and the
39:06
way I hope those people are a a small small minority but they may there may be more of them the what I guessed yeah and and I think that there's there's a lot of people who just you know they this isn't their thing and that's fine that's absolutely fine but then it's incumbent
39:23
upon those of us who it is our thing to take action don't talk about it don't virtue signal don't don't you know instead of talking about things do things right do show don't tell right and and so I think that the first step here is the reframing so that just
39:44
people who don't like think about this all the time that what what they're reading is oh you see this book called White mirror this is great I didn't even think like wow we there's a bunch of stuff that we can do that's going to
39:58
make the Our Lives better for our kids and our grandkids and our great grandkids right and and so this idea and that's why I think the old political labels are really Antiquated because Left Right are are you Pro progress at
40:12
Pro improving the world for our our kids and grandkids or are you somehow stuck in some mind virus that is no that can never happen and you know I'm a huge fan of L and the dowy Jing and and you know he talks about basically his message is
40:31
stasis is death movement is life he says what is stiff and inflexible is a disciple of death what is soft and yielding is a disciple of life hard and stiff will be broken soft and supple will prevail he wrote that in whatever BC like these are not new ideas that is
40:54
great economics a a a society the an economy that is not Dynamic that is that is an economy of stasis where PE where people people's jobs don't change where you where you think you're going to be at the same place for the rest of your
41:11
life where there aren't new companies where the old companies are unchallenged I understand why to some people that might be appealing but that is that is an economy that is unable to solve problems for its people that is that is an economy unable
41:29
to provide opportunities and even though an economy where it's the same you know big companies year after year and they guarantee your job and you'll never and you can do your job the same today as tomorrow that may seem like an economy
41:44
of stability but it is a brittle economy is it is an economy and when we had a little bit too much of that going into the 70s the US economy didn't look particularly healthy and I and I love this sort of the uh the naturalistic version because that's the example I use
42:02
on in my book that the that the solid oak tree may look like that is that is stability personified but you get a crack in that oak tree a big crack that tree is dead a blade of grass will bend here and there one of these Will Survive our hurricane
42:21
one won't and I S I don't know if I sound like a fluffer but be like the of grass my friend absolutely and you know what that you know that's what the the economists you as you well know uh it was a political economy and it was all
42:37
philosophy it all started as philosophy right J lock philosopher um you know Adam Smith philosopher um who who happened to write some really fascinating things that were very pertinent to how one grows an economy well and continually and and so so uh I think
42:57
there are greed shoots though um and I want to I'll give you an example and then I'd like to hear some of the greed shoots that you see um like Shan Ventures many of my employees are quite young uh they're members of the uh Generation Z Zoomers and I'm I'm
43:16
continually impressed by the creativity by the willingness of these young people to embrace uh not the nine to5 that that they're the opposite they don't want the gold watch they don't want the monotony of a 40-year career doing the same thing
43:37
and so they and their their digital natives true digital natives right so I'm 63 I I came of age I went from age 10 to to 20 during the 1970s let me tell you you don't want to come of age in a decade like the 1970s because they sucked they were awful and and then like
43:59
everyone was so depressed and even the again the culture that's when you started seeing all of the movies where the bad guys won where at the end the plane crashed and everybody died and and and mercifully we bounced back from that
44:14
you know we got morning in America again again with with Reagan but but you know Bill Clinton was also incredibly optimistic this is not a party issue and and I think we need to get Beyond I'm a Democrat I'm a republican I'm an
44:30
independent it's no longer an issue of party and that's why I think the reframing of this is going to be really helpful because po I mean look at what what's happening with the general Public's view of our politicians our big companies our large media like they're
44:48
all in the toilet every time you think they can't go lower they go lower and yet you see we're doing a series called the Great Shuffle which is all these old models are collapsing and they started collapsing about 20 years ago right we're now witnessing it speeding up and
45:07
I think because of way the way much of it is going I think we're get I think the upwing is going to win because uh it because I am seeing these green shoots are you seeing any green shoots that you can point to that that you're like wow
45:23
okay that is great that makes me happy happy to see that today I I see I think I see some green shoots I see I see other signs which make me a little more pessimistic I was I was I was uh I was doing a podcast over the summer and I was you know was giving what I think are
45:41
some basic facts about issues of of how the economy has been doing and issues about wages and inequality and I think that much the media coverage is overly pessimistic and the producer who was a a woman in her 20s like you're telling me
45:58
exactly the opposite of what I feel everybody else is telling me I'm like well I'm right they're and here's and here's why I think I think people I think people are thirsty to hear something different that's based in fact
46:14
but I think the digital native part which you mentioned is really important because many of the criticisms that I I've heard I heard about social media platforms and we're hearing them about AI are these issues of disinformation and people being tricked
46:30
by phony videos I I really think that is a phenomenon of older people and not younger people I think young people have been online enough and they have SE and that they they don't naturally think that they see a video of something their
46:46
instinct is okay they probably set that up or that they're very skeptical of everything they see so I I I find it very hard to believe that anyone you know certainly under the age of 35 or 30 is going to you know they go into this thinking that there's probably another
47:05
side of the story uh so I I I that's why I don't worry about those kinds of issues even though Lord knows there's a million conferences here in Washington DC about those exact kind of topics um I'm also really enthused by the
47:21
number of people I see on social media who I who I who I can GA are younger who look at what's happening I think particularly with nuclear energy and are saying wait wait a second I've been told my whole life that this climate is this is ready to collapse and
47:41
life will be worse and you're telling me that this could have been entirely avoided by having Coast to Coast nuclear reactors and we decided not to because of an accident in Pennsylvania where nobody died I what I'm sorry what did we
48:04
do that's right I'm confused they go no you're not confused you understand it perfectly that's exactly the choice we made and I I I think that issue in particular not the harp on it really I think undercuts the sort of downwing message because a lot of that move those
48:25
people to they really tend to focus particularly on the left about we can't have progress because of the climate yet because of the lack of progress that that we have this climate problem which as I said is really a clean energy problem and the fact that we don't have
48:41
this is not an economy run on clean not just clean carbon clean all kinds of pollution why that's not our economy that was a choice we made it was not a technological Choice it was a political cultural and societal choice so I find
48:57
people who are seem to be waking up to that online uh I find that I find that super super encouraging listen I also find encouraging that my friends who are left of center have finally noticed that it's hard to build something in this
49:09
country you know you know what welcome to the party better late than ever uh that's great I'm not We're not gonna listen this is a judgment free zone Jim We're not gonna say well where were you back in the no we'll say fine you're
49:22
here now let's solve that problem let's it easier to build things let's you know make it easier to build everything from Electric transmission lines to to to housing density that to me that is that is one of the more reassuring
49:36
developments I I hope I hope that uh I hope that continues uh because I again uh we need all the help we can here because we're we're moving against 50 years of the momentum in the other direction that we're trying to turn around totally agree and I always look
49:53
for things to root for as opposed to things against uh I myself I changed my opinion on nuclear energy I was I was unthinkingly and kind of axiomatically against nuclear power because I you know honestly Jim I hadn't thought about it and it was just it seemed obvious right
50:12
because oh look at the accidents look at all of this but then when I started like really investigating and really thinking about it I totally changed my mind I'm like because I was worried about climate change I like okay this is a problem
50:27
that we really need to address and then you kind of go well what what's the what what what do we have on hand right now that could amarate this problem if not ultimately eliminate it down the road nuclear energy and I also noticed that
50:44
I'm seeing younger people they don't call it nuclear any energy anymore they're doing a reframe and they're calling it uh I've seen a couple of things uh kinetic uh energy uh Elemental energy Elemental energy right and when I see that that
51:02
really Sparks for me I'm like oh they're they're reframing right you see Bono just came out in favor great that's a super example yep yep yep and and so I I think that what I'm rooting for and I think you're rooting for in your book is you know what I don't care what you used
51:22
to believe I really don't I believe that we should all welcome people no matter what their prior their priors were right if they were left they were right they were Center I don't care it's like this is a much better way to sort right this
51:39
what are you in favor of are you in favor of continual progress understanding and let's underline here understanding that we're going to create a whole new series of problems right this is not a utopian Vision this is not a utopian problem yeah no exactly and
51:55
and so we're we we're not going to do this scotf free we're g to have problems we can solve those problems bur the what I call the death Cult of no the the Malian no we're all GNA die and look at the population and here's our our our
52:15
grain uh and and mathematically by the way at the time he was right his math wasn't wrong what he failed to understand was he thought that he knew everything that would transpire in the future with great certainty right and that's now we're back to David Joyce in
52:31
the beginning of infinity right David Deutsch does a masterful job of pointing out hey what were people thinking about nuclear power and the internet in 1900 they weren't thinking about it at all no uh that that's a great Point
52:46
that's that that's that's a that's a great book one one thing that also sort of makes me you know more enthusiastic is know I mentioned boy great if uh you know some of our billionaires would Finance some uh some uh you know you know upwing kinds of media well one
53:02
great thing about the internet is we can do it ourselves you know I don't I listen I am no artist all right but I'm able to go on Mid journey and that and that's only going to get better and with more video capabilities I'm able to
53:16
create images of of futuristic places and you know cities and civilizations that look really cool and inviting and I don't have to wait and I I'm pretty sure that that some of these you know you know super Tabby people who I follow on
53:34
on Twitter they're going to make their own movies and videos uh that will look Hollywood quality that will tell a show a very different vision of what the future so we don't listen it' be great if Hollywood got on board hopefully it will uh but I think we can actually
53:52
start to create those images our so and just one of the thing I just showing I think how technology can help us here one of my favorite websites I know you're familiar with it is our world in data which just gives you data and chart about all these issues from uh from you
54:11
know the history of economic growth and what's going on with the environment very you know good-look charts well done you know getting with a with a focus on getting the numbers correct that that should be any teachers need to be made
54:29
aware of that that that could that could really be something that we with that we present the kids in school just showing them the actual facts most people are unaware of how poor people used to be and how it's suddenly really if you look
54:44
over the course of humanity suddenly change if you and I'm sure you've also looked at the famous chart showing per capita income back in 1800 versus today sort of in Western countries if you look at that chart which kind of tends to go
54:58
like straight up at some point you think there was an alien invasion where they gave us you know these amaz these amazing you know cures and gadgets no like we did that we did that because we changed how we looked at the world we CH
55:13
we uh governments changed with how they either punished or rewarded entrepreneurs we learn you know we we we we we learned enough stuff and then we kept learning and it created really people talk about the singularity that was one Singularity a total like phase
55:30
change in our reality then we could sort of do that again totally agree and I loved your your point about using um AI for for art um and because I extend that argument even further um we if our schools won't teach our kids about this well we're
55:52
going to we're going to invest in and release into the market self- learning tools that are powered by AI that are specific to the student that that interface with the student and understand their learning style so that they can help them learn better and and
56:07
one of the things the and the the old all the old marbles are collapsing well they are and if if the old Power structure won't do it it will be washed away by the innovations that they can't stop right and you're poting about Hollywood Hollywood is going to make
56:25
these movies I am I have infinite films I have a division that's going to make these movies uh the Simon and CH I don't want to pick on a particular let's pick out one of my Publishers uh so McGraw Hill who published my book what works on
56:37
Wall Street they won't publish your book well sha C Ventures infinite books will and by the way the author splits going to be a lot different the author's going to get 70% of the royalties we're going to take 30 what how can you do that well
56:52
we have all these new tech platforms that make the 30 incredibly valuable and so if you're willing to embrace the new tools the new platforms the new economics of the situation you can you can have a incredibly profitable Publishing Company even though you're
57:12
giving the author The Lion Share of the of the royalties that he or she that's great yeah should be earning and so I I look at it as what I'm trying to do and what it sounds like you're trying to do is I look to your blueprint I at your
57:25
book is we're trying to make this inevitable okay I'm not I'm not going to try to change Hollywood I'm not going to try to change Washington or London I I if they won't change guess what I'm gonna I'm gonna put this stuff out into the world you're gonna push this stuff
57:43
out into the world and they can't stop us it's amazing I think the education and I you know I and I I wrote the book just as sort of you know uh chat GP was emerging and I tried to get as much of that as I as I I could give my deadline
58:00
but you know one thing I write about is boy you know would it be great if we if our if our if our teachers our our high school and grammar school teachers were you know from the top third of college classes rather than from the bottom
58:14
third but you know what we're not going to wait for like that kind of change to happen if I can't get that kind of quality teacher in my school if I can't get a teacher to incorporate like all these other tools of like you know our world and
58:29
data into what they do uh I'm you know what I'm gonna have a AI that can help me teach my kid and and the fact that so much of the conversation about education so far has been about oh what if the kids uh use you know cheat by using AI to write essays and all the no I mean
58:50
that that's not what this is about this is about me creating a lifetime learning instructor who understands exactly what your kid knows doesn't know how they learn best best look at the potential there and to think about this as
59:07
something to help them like you know cheat on a cheat on writing a paper boy that that is a d that is a downwing view of things no kidding and you know listen I think the greatest teachers in the world should make millions of dollars a year I really do
59:25
because what are they doing they are informing the Next Generation and guess what we now have platforms where the greatest teachers can emerge and can make that huge amount of money because we're going to free them they we're
59:42
gonna you they're going to need a platform well we've got YouTube we've got podcast we've got all of the digital should they have a co-pilot in AI I think the best ones will um and I look at AI as I I believe deeply in the senatur model man humans plus machine
1:00:02
not machine only it's like we're gonna see a huge amount of AI uh uh text come out like it's coming out now we're gonna see M more much more of it you know what Jim 90% of it's going to be [ __ ] I believe that the 10% of it going to be
1:00:21
brilliant is going to be a human being co-creating with this incredible Innovation creativity intelligence amplification technology that's what this is this is you know Archimedes give me a liever and I can move the world wow we just invented the biggest lever
1:00:42
humans have ever had access to but we are going to be the human Colossus it's not going to be some machine intelligence telling us what to do it's going to be we humans who the the best of my knowledge I could be wrong but at
1:00:58
least from what I know we're the only Universal explainers and connectors right now I hope there are others but for right now we do that now we have this technology that will help us build this interconnected networked human Colossus and like I I just like what a
1:01:18
time to be alive it's so wondrous it's the original awe right that's the kind of thing that I'm trying to help others see and the only way to do that is not command them not say you must see it this way not you've got to embrace my beliefs no I don't
1:01:39
want any of that I just want to be able to show them all make it available to all and then watch these greatest teachers start making millions and and and remember there are also a lot of people out there a lot of kids out there that maybe they have a a
1:01:58
learning difficulty maybe they have some disability you know AI is going to help that I don't want to I don't want to this say talk about miracle cures but what we've seen in biotechnology and with AI perhaps accelerating that
1:02:12
progress we have a healthier species to to learn and connect uh like we're not even talking we're not even talk imagine that and imagine that you know E I mentioned soil and green in the book remember soil and green you know I always think it's people that's
1:02:36
right but you know what an economy is like the it's a soil and green thing economy is made out of people it's us and the and and the better trained and healthy and the easy it is easier it is for us to connect and collaborate that you will get a a better
1:02:54
more inclusive more sustainable economy and that's what we're talking about here not about you know robots doing everything and everybody else just getting a universal basic income check as we as we as we sit in our you know tube Apartments wearing goggles you know
1:03:11
VR goggles that's not that's not the future I could not agree more and I want to underline what you said it is that's what the economy is it is we humans it reflects what do we desire what are our hopes what are our dreams why do
1:03:29
free markets Che like there's a great book called The Gus of the Beast a radical revision of capitalism in which the author is like uh you know all of these religions from Christianity all the way down promis whoa we're going to take care of you we're g to make sure
1:03:45
that everything is great and what's the only system that ever delivered on that promise free markets are the only thing that ever delivered on that promise so what do I want I want everyone in the entire world to be healthier smarter longer lived living in a in in a world
1:04:06
of abundance not a world of scarcity and like that's what I'm rooting for so that's what I'm doing that's what you're doing with this book I really believe and and again the Genesis clock I love that because like literally that changes
1:04:23
reframes the the focus wait a minute we're all worried about striking midnight here no D we we are at the very beginning in my opinion of the exponential age and to to like I have to always temper it I always have to put the caveat in look
1:04:45
yes I'm very excited about this I think it's going to be great for the world I think it's going to be great for the vast majority of humanity will there be problems of course there will be problems but can we can we try to move off the zero something thinking can we
1:05:03
try to move off the scarcity mentality and move towards positive sub results I like that's another one of the the basic premise of my company Ventures we will not do negative sum or zero sum transactions we just won't do them so we
1:05:22
have an adventure are right we call it Adventures which is what they used to call Venture Capital which was great but the really original name that I loved even more was they used to call Venture Capital Liberation I love that because what it
1:05:41
did was it liberated these creative in you know Innovative Minds to hey let's make that in our garage we'll give you some money for that but so do we invest invest in zero something no we won't we simply won't no matter how lucrative
1:05:58
they are perceived like so for example I'm sure you aware of payday lenders right and now it's just my opinion I'm not going to I'm not going to inflict my opinion on anyone else but my opinion is they are predatory and they are zero self and so even though they're
1:06:14
incredibly profitable many of them I'm not going to invest in them and and I I just believe you know Carl Yung said we are not what we say will do we are what we do and so I'm trying to be as proactive as I can be you are doing it
1:06:31
with your books I mean there are a lot of people and that's the other thing another green shoot that I see in addition like when I saw this book I'm like oh my God great this is fantastic because people's minds are changing we can't command them to change that's the
1:06:49
other that's the mentality of the of the down uh word thinking right that's that's I'm I can't change other human I can't command oh I can compel them at the point of a gun sure but can I can I change them can I change their inner attitude no they can do that all we can
1:07:10
do I think is to give them reasons to think oh wow maybe maybe that is a good idea with you with the blueprint in your book before we uh end here and I I I warned you that this was go because we because we have I've love this great for
1:07:27
me just just give me give me three things that in your blueprint that you have in the book give me give me the three things that you think like we could actually get these three things done well listen I I I I have a list but if I'm gonna if I'm going to talk three
1:07:44
one uh is you know let's put the 70s behind us all right let's put the 70s that kind of regulatory approach which at its heart with it was very skeptical of the whole notion of material progress that lens must be smashed and gotten rid
1:08:02
of all right so we need to look at whatever Pol whatever policies we do need to be look at how will this affect our ability to innovate and build doesn't have to be the only thing but that needs to be a part of the discussion uh so that's one two uh I
1:08:18
think it was a huge huge mistake that we did not follow the project Apollo with project something else now I'm not sure that's something else maybe it was going to be project nuclear fusion I don't know I would I would I would spend as a
1:08:34
level of the economy uh on science investment what we did back then which would be like tripling what we what we spend on on on science research I think that I think both those things are super important I would not strangle this AI Revolution I would let a thousand
1:08:55
million models Bloom and I'm going to I'm going to throw a quick fourth thing in there Elon Musk who has become a controversial character because of Twitter I I I I don't care about Twitter musk I care a lot about Tesla and SpaceX musk and I
1:09:11
and I I I heard Elon Musk say this in person he says the unit if you want to do a great things with your life there's no better place to do it than the United States of America I'm an American and the day that we can't say that where the US is not the greatest
1:09:33
place do great things with your life and if people who want to do great things want to come here come here you will be welcome so I think that attitude also extraordinarily important oh also I'd build a moon base I'd build a
1:09:48
moon I think there's good reason for it why I want to toss that in there why not um I I uh the the idea that of uh immigration that has been a soap box I've been on for decades we are still the country despite everything where the world's most Innovative clever
1:10:09
people want to live and work we should let them we should not prohibit we should throw open our arms in welcome for these people because like look at India like the they one of the youngest populations one of the best educated
1:10:27
populations in the world I have many colleagues at osami ventures who are Indian like oh my God they're like perfectly set up but if their government stop I mean like I was chatting with one of my teammates who is in in India he's like yes we because I
1:10:45
was saying you guys of the future and he goes yes and despite our government but the fact is I like we can be a beacon and I think that's great and we should we should set the example the United States because at some point
1:11:03
hopefully fingers cross at some point the countries that are losing all their best and brightest to us should think huh I wonder what whether we want this to continue maybe we should rethink some of our own policies as well and so I
1:11:22
think that listen for all of our problems I would never short the United States of America ever and like the other thing that I would never go short is youth I think that you know you you hear so many people oh today's generation blah blah blah blah you know
1:11:45
what be for something don't don't don't be against it look at the talents that these kids have they're incredible and so rather than like poo poo and and point out all the thing that that that and you know clutch our pearls let's
1:12:02
Empower them with these skills that they have and guess what in a thousand flowers will Bloom 10,000 will Bloom and so listen absolutely amen amen I just think that um the the more books like yours hopefully your next book will be published byan vet infinite publishing
1:12:25
because we want we want to pay well listen Chim uh again I'm very honored for you to come on on the day of the release of your book congratulations on that thank you thank you very I think I think it's a great book and I highly recommend it for everyone um we always
1:12:45
end our podcasts with making you the emperor of the world uh now you can't put anyone into re-education camp and you can't you can't kill anyone but we are going to give you a magic microphone and you can speak two things into it and
1:13:03
the next day all eight billion people in the world will have been incepted by the two things you spoke into that magical microphone and they're gon to think it was their own idea they're gonna wake up and they're gonna say honey I just had
1:13:16
the two best idea that I'm going to start acting this way doing this reading this what are you going to incept in the world's population I would I want people to understand that um me I work at a think tank and I'm in the economics department and people
1:13:33
think that economics is just about money and statistics and lot where lines go a well functioning economic system is a system that turns dreams into physical reality that's that's we're trying to create crystals of imagination and that's what this
1:13:58
whole thing is this economics is is turning dreams into reality some systems do it better than others as we've seen through history some system it's it's nightmares that can turned into reality so but that's not what our system is so our system is running running as it
1:14:16
should that's what uh that's what should be doing the other thing is uh human Freedom that that this is not p a the the freedom to live our lives and make decisions and start businesses is at the core of this of my of my book the conservative futurist
1:14:37
it's at the core of our success as a nation and some people seem to be doubting that uh they think maybe some other countries have figured it out maybe maybe China's figured out a different way I see Zero evidence of that and do not lose faith in the power
1:14:56
of human freedom and human creativity amen Allelujah I could not agree more well listen Jim this has been absolutely fantastic thank you for coming on and uh can't wait uh to start giving your book away to lots of uh people that I know well that that's
1:15:17
fantastic jim I've very much enjoyed the conversation hopefully there will be another one but thank you so much for having me on oh I'll invite you right now there will be another one excellent all right Jim thanks a lot