welcome to technology Brothers the most profitable podcast in the world today we are breaking down a bunch of hot takes and predictions for 2025 getting you ready for this year it's a new year we had to cover Veil yesterday but today we're looking forward to the future and we're starting with a great post from friend of the show Molly O'Shea she says top 25 plus
hot takes there are in fact 33 hot takes for 2025 and uh this was fun we participated in this she asked us for a hot take and we gave one um and she posted the full takes and then she boiled them down we should start with ours it's hilarious because ours got boiled down she clearly like ran these through chat GPT to give like summaries
and you lose a lot of our humor you do it what matters is ultimately that we're correct and Vindicated so what was ours again we're uh ours was 31 the equestrian Market will boom as exited Tech Founders and nepo journalists by horses yeah that's Prett accur um and yeah it's not the only thing would say here it got condensed it's not just nepo
journalists there's people like Caris swisser who make $100,000 an episode also yes yes but I'm just saying she she can buy her own horses right she does she doesn't have to go she could she could buy you know pretty world class stallion almost every episode yeah there's kind of two Dynamics going on in like the liquidity markets right now it's like the IPO windows open so
there's going to be more liquidity for early stage Founders and employees and entrepreneurs whove been working really hard creating a lot of value building real and the m& and the m&a market broadly coming back and then and then secondarily as a as another factor a lot of trust funds are unlocking now for the journalists and so there's just going to
be a flood of cash coming in yeah and and obviously that's going to drive equestrian and we'll be participating as well yep yeah exactly uh so let's go through these number one don't die will become the blueprint for Maha okay so one thing that's interesting too is these predictions were made by individuals not just but we don't actually have the contct on
who did it so that allows us to be uh pretty uh unconflicted and and ruthless yeah uh so anyways don't die will become the blueprint for Maha I'm gonna say uh hard no on this I think don't die gets a bunch of stuff right but Maha is so much more about getting the basics right like let's clean up our water supply Let's uh you know fix school lunches you know
these sort of basic things where don't die is a sort of hyper optimization you know get your biomarkers checked monthly type thing and it's kind of like overkill for the average the average the average person should exercise daily eat Whole Foods yeah get some good sleep you can kind of think about it like don't die is like
bench pressing two plates Maha is more about benching three plates y uh and and it even goes further with like Brian Johnson's a vegetarian doesn't eat meat maaha obviously consuming a ton of meat good meat almost every day multiple multiple staks per day um and so uh there is there is a decent amount of alignment there they're both like
directionally in the same direction but uh you know that St by the way it's like 10 10% of guys consume like 80% of the meat in the United States of course and uh we know that our listeners are firmly in the in the in the 10% yeah I I I've been on this for for weeks tweeting about how if you get a wedding invitation you and they ask for you know
chicken or fish you should be able to say double meat double steak you should be able to say double steak Yeah I want double steak that was my that was my that was for for a period of my life I would live on two yeah uh I would get go to Chipotle get two bowls double rice double beans double meat every time and that was like that was at least one meal for the day
you fantastic yeah everyone has every bro has that story it's great I think sweet green could really win over you know the the our listeners at least Stu and by making the regular meat like amount like the the double for like an you know Cava or whatever so if you go into sweet green and you get double meat you're actually getting quadruple yeah
yeah there needs to be like an arms race in the meat category of all these fast casual slot Bowl places uh just like you know all the AI firms are benchmarking oh who's doing best on you know mlu I want to know okay which fast casual restaurant is the most protein per dollar yeah I'm pushing it extreme I want the base case to be 100 grams I'm
trying to do pound per one gram per pound of body weight honestly but why stop there why not go to three pounds per you know how you were joking oh yeah one and a half one and a half grams of protein per pound of body weight yeah for me that's 400 grams of protein a day and I was like damn to do that I would need to drink a gallon of milk a day go
mad right you should you know how much protein is a gallon of milk I actually don't 120 gram salt Sal you have to drink like three gallons of milk be great um we got to rip through these we got a lot we got a lot ofed AI will gain rights religions and even Sue humans though that's a little soon I don't I don't know yeah rights rights take a while uh but uh I said this
yesterday I think that I think that a AGI will be achieved when uh AI agents are striking and forming labor unions there's been a little bit of that where people like like it's like they behave lazily on certain days and people think it's because it's been baked into the the llm memory that like Friday is like a chill day yeah and so it acts like a
like an employee on Friday and you have to say like work like it's a Monday it's a Monday yeah uh there will be a Twitter files for government that's interesting I think torenberg said that uh never been happy with the declassifications that have gone on there's been so many times where it's like oh this person going to blow wide open even the Twitter files I didn't
think were that crazy yeah it was like oh really like they they blocked some accounts like we knew that when it happened I don't know the new the new X Files is they were um you just can't post about that the guy Adrien diman or whatever if you try to post the article it just says like error yeah isn't that because it it doxes him and he's a non
and so elon's been against doxing and so I think that that's actually kind of consistent sure but like it is it is information yeah it is culturally important um corporations will pay for emotional harvesting to train AI I don't get it um Luigi mangion and Sam bankman freed will launch a blockchain health care protocol from prison silly silly I
I I don't think that they're aligned in any way and it's just a wildly different like SPF still maintains that like he like you know [ __ ] up on accounting and Luigi like murdered someone like I don't think they're as aligned as people think uh privacy will become a luxury with offline life becoming a status symbol wrong obviously you want to be
extreme I mean the second the second part is true but that's also been true forever but the the classic thing if you're making if if you're VC making predictions just say what was true for the last year sure and you sound like also it sounds like people who just are bad posters or like actually privacy is a luxury yeah I don't want a th likes on
my Banger yeah I prefer having a locked account with Carri no Carri no interest our friend he got he had a banger about wearing a nice jacket got over a thousand likes and then he deleted it for some reason he he made some post about oh I I I never wanted to have an account that was like you know it's like you can't handle the heat stay out of
the kitchen your Men's Wear account sit down stop posting about buying out companies and buying rare mines and build start posting about buy acquiring rare jackets exactly you're um there's a a huge market for the the conservative Men's Wear guy because the the current Men's Wear guy Derek is like he only targets Republicans and he's just
clearly very left weing he's like more of a political project than like actually a political project laring as but no one's done it on the other side like here's Bill Clinton and it doesn't matter I feel like people make fun of like fedman or whatever for wearing his basketball shorts a little bit but there's no one who's like that's their stti yeah right big opportunity seven
fertility rates drop globally prompting governments to fund reproduction startups so uh at the rate that we're having children I think we're going to be able to keep uh rates I don't buy the governments funding reproduction startups drop the startups there are other ways for governments to fund reproduction and it's just like incre it's just the child tax credit
like the the tax credit's crazy you don't want the government F startups we learn this from cylindra like they [ __ ] it up I I don't I don't remember what the actual tax credit is that you get get for hiring like staff to help raise your kids but it's something like we spend 15 times that credit amount on child care every year like it just
bringing up that makes a lot of sense um and would be a a you know would be Co if there was like a Maha style movement for pronatalism fertility in America like what laws would we Chang there's a big one about uh car seats you know this because the car seats are so bulky now and they're so big and they're required like super late like you can have like a
seven-year-old who's like 100 lb and you're like still in the car seat and you can't like so it requires they can't sit in the back of the station wagon anymore so you can't even get a station wagon so they don't make them anymore so you have to buy the three row SUV that's obviously more expensive every SUV is like 10K more than a car and so uh and
and you talk to any parent it's like yeah like we wore seat belts but we sat in the back seat and there were four of us and we just like you know buckled up and it was fine um AI agents will disrupt traditional Sur and internet business models applying real pressure to Google's dominance interesting this is funny funny because I don't know who
made this prediction but if you we're going to talk about this later uh Fred over at USV says Apple and Google will leverage their existing Market power to surpass open AI chat gbt and consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025 like I feel like the real risk here is that Apple just builds in basically Apple I think Google is the one no I know but eventually Apple will
say hey this $20 billion a year from Google's nice but we could just create a better I disagree with that you think they're just going to keep that because because that that $20 million is 100% margin they don't have to do anything and they know that like anytime they need to manage a new business line there's risk and it could go wrong and stuff and Google's just the
best and so and airpods which are like the biggest hit ever but this is the classic like is AI a disruptive technology or sustaining technology sustaining Innovation disruptive innovation um and yeah I mean uh there's a poly market now for who will have the best model by the end of q1 or Q2 or something and Google is actually in the
lead which is interesting uh they certainly have the scale and the data and so uh it'll be interesting to track that um starlink will become the dominant internet and cellular provider a critical layer for AI data Stacks interesting I don't know about dominant internet or cellular provider that's like that's super fast roll out I'd love
to hear why this is directly relevant to AI data step I don't understand that part uh but um sounds cool I super pro Starling I do think that every founder CEO should buy a starlink and have it because you cannot afford to not have good internet whenever you're traveling like you're going to be in some weird place the internet's not going to be
good you're going to miss calls and the cost is so low that you can't afford not to have it and you can expense it um the S&P 500 will end below 6,000 down or flat on the year huh bearish I completely disagree I think things are going to ripk R but we'll see cool uh the rise AI slop will put a premium on handcrafted content much like this filmed in a beautiful possibly restoring
trust in in mainstream media I actually I think that's an interesting point so the rise of AI slop will put a premium on on artisanal content possibly restoring trust in mainstream media and it's funny because mainstream media despite everything that they've done still is the most trustworthy Place 100% to get news if you just go for like the
facts like the fact checking at the New Yorker or the wall stre joural it wasn't until we launched the truth Zone that we became the most trusted news source in world and I also think it was very important that we launched this podcast when we did because like people joke oh it's AI generator or whatever but like clearly we're not actually generating
three hours of above Sora level video per day like just the cost even if we even if Sora was good enough which it's not there would be it destroy profitability it would be so expensive and it would be impossible so like anyone who knows the technology knows that this podcast is real and so this is the last moment where where we can prove that this is real and then we can carry
that forward forever so even if it's CL us and the other thing is you will know that we we didn't do it and then we stayed forward as long as you trust us that we didn't swap ourselves out in the future you well the reason that people can trust us is that we love podcasting so much we love podcasters High a high that cannot be experienced in any other
way and so even when the models get good enough to just fully generate the content why we would be we would be not doing our favorite thing in the world right which is podcasting so will never happen let's go to 12 AGI is a marketing scam it's overhyped and far from realization we talked about this earlier uh Sam Alman runs a company with Bill
not billions but hundreds of millions of daus and so he's basically has Credit Now every once a month to come out and say you know in some new dramatic way AGI basically figured it out so we know how to do it now so I think it's cool I mean it all goes back to the definition like when I use when I use chat GPT for the first time I was like this is Agi
yeah like it's artificial for sure it's very general you can ask it about anything and it's definitely intelligent now is it the smartest thing in the whole smarter than every human can you make it do yeah of course but like it passes the bar for me for just like being artificial general and intelligent show show Chad GPT to somebody in the 9s and they they would
and so clearly I I I think we need to move from like there's the AGI stuff which I think we've achieved and then there's ASI the super intelligence where it's smarter than everyone it's reinforcing itself there's no employees at open a it's just building its own system or whatever but then there's this massive Gap in the middle I I was uh
kind of trying to come up with like a phrase for it but like I liked AEI like artificial economic intelligence and trying to measure it just in ter terms of profit essentially and say you know right now open a01 cha PT Pro subscription Sam said they're losing money on it because people are using it so much but there should be a there should be like an
evaluation where you go and the prompt is just make money and it goes and finds a job maybe that's just on up work doing like little tiny tasks but it goes and and does that and just makes money and and then what is the total value and at some point the value of like these AI systems Direct producing cash flow will be higher than humans be what's happened
to the the market caps of of Fiverr and upwork and these these I mean I think that those will still be valuable because they're their aggregation platforms around like the type of task they they are independent of who's doing the task no I just I I just mean more that's true to some degree but I'm just saying so much of the work being done on
those platforms is very lwh hanging fruit for yes models true true the question is just like how does the how does the model go interesting Fiverr still 30% over the past five years yeah so I mean yeah I I I like tracking things more quantitatively than these like qualitative oh we move the we move the the goal posts every six months for what
AGI is it's like I yeah test was great because it was binary and it was very clear that we jumped past that and then we need to change swap the benchmarks to the models getting money right AI how much yeah how much money are they making what's your hustle exactly and are they making are they making 1% as much as humans in terms of total Global GDP are
they making 50% at a certain point there's going to be like okay they're doing everything but there aren't humanoids yet so they aren't doing like the farming and the plumbing or whatever but they're doing a lot of the white collar work uh and then and then there'll be a question about like also just just literally just tracking how
big the models are and how much energy is being spended on that's that's a much more valuable thing to track because everyone's saying if we scale up another two orders of magnitude it's AGI it's ASI whatever but the question is just like how are we tracking against that because if we go through like a Moors law Flatline for a couple years like we're going to feel
that one way or another right so I think one thing's clear clearly intelligence is a spectrum we're already on that we're already on it and yet it's still beneficial for people that are having to raise billions of dollars to to constantly say we're on the precipice of this great moment you need to get in before AGI would call it like a marketing scam but it's certainly a
buzzword yeah right in the sense that like the cloud was a buzzword but it wasn't a scam yeah right what's the next one climate startups will Rebrand as energy dependent energy Independence to appeal to conservatives huh yeah that makes sense if you're doing solar wind or nuclear like uh Isaiah Taylor's going down to Mar Lago in a few days to do a
conference on nuclear and a lot of the nuclear companies that aot I know a lot of these Founders they don't care about politics at all really like L it's just about and energy itself doesn't really care about politics either except when there's subsidies involved but in general energy is energy we need a lot of it we need should make more of it and
uh I don't think it should be yeah I talked to a guy who is consultant for like the oil and gas if you take your climate tech company Rebrand around energy Independence you might be able to get some cash from Donald Trump Jr 1789 Capital he's big into the anti uh let's go 14 AI wearables will flop but meta will dominate AI Hardware those seem in
odds what is an AI wearable if not a headset if not AI Hardware um yeah I I I I think uh Lindy man said something recently where he was like we need to get the phone built into glasses because the Aesthetics of a bunch of people at a cafe sitting around with your neck cranked over just just you know using your device are terrible so I don't I
think about AI wearables will flop and I also I just I think it's I think it's too early to say that I think you have smart people like AI who are who have so AI I was thinking VR wearables okay AI wearables like this is like friend.com the Humane well a lot of them have already kind of flopped uh there was that there's the Humane pin that was
really rough and then uh what was that other one that was a little rabbit rabbit rabbit that one seemed cool for kids so Humane also pivoted I don't know if you saw this they basically are making this OS for your devices now and it seems I really thought rabbit should just focus on on a cool device for kids that gets them off the screen go take a
picture of a flower tells you what the flower is or it's basically redesigned it as a radio for parents and their kids exactly we've talked about the Yodo how that's a really cool device like there's a bunch of things that you can do there yeah I always felt that they a lot of the wereable companies would have done better going for the kids Market because kids
don't have phones already parents want them off devices so if you give them an audio native device makes sense and So Meta will dominate AI Hardware the rayb bands are decent it is cool to be able to wear the glasses and listen to a podcast and then immediately say hey meta you know uh what what year was this building made that I'm looking at like
that is cool I like having an llm just that I can talk to whenever that's nice but Apple still has like so many Moes there with the airpod and the watch and the phone like I I think that they're I don't know dominate is the right word let's move on to 15 The Taste Renaissance will replace content Creation with artists like we think of
ourselves as artists we think of ourselves as capitalists capitalists capitalist first artist good artist is the best artists are highly commercial so yes Andy warh said that but I do so I think like I would just take this in a different direction where I think that it's going to become increas inly hard to compete as part-time content creators
when there's any when there's billions of machines creating AI slop constantly so yeah you look at David cenra that's like he just focuses on his podcast 247 and it's impossible to compete with him uh Independent Media will overtake mainstream media number 16 that's the flip side of the other restoring trust in MSM um I agree I I just feel like
there's still so much value and the of of CNBC said this is true CNN said this is true there's there always going to be I guess the question is like is like if you're adding up the market cap of News Corp New York Times CNN all these different everyone that owns Wall Street Journal and all that you add up all those market caps and then you add
up how much cash flow is Rogan making Huber men and you apply some sort of eidon multiple to that um are yeah this Independent Media is probably still smaller and it's probably not going to overtake it in 2025 do we include Spotify do we include YouTube because YouTube is definitely bigger than the mainstream media if you include that in the market cap I do think Independent
Media will Eclipse mainstream media eventually from a revenue standpoint I think it already has if you include YouTube yeah yeah um and and Spotify yeah but then the question is what you know like but the only thing this this to me is it's kind of a [ __ ] prediction because it's calling out a bunch of things that have been happening for
decade um so not not the most interesting number 17 Empire Building will be valued over get-rich quick schemes little bit of a shift in the trend there big question about the Zoomers but I I I feel like every it's always been cool to build Empires get rich quick schemes have always it's very cool to get rich quick yeah yeah isn't that what you did uh
yeah yeah I did I did get rich quick yeah um but um and you I mean you would describe your business as a scheme in some ways every business is a scheme I think so yeah it's a conspiracy theory every business is a conspiracy it's just a small group of people trying to get money together yep now the AIS are trying to figure out how to get money ex
humans have an edge there for now for the next year humans have an edge on getting money yeah yeah I mean if you could become a millionaire Before 40 I think you got rich pretty quick so you just don't want to get slowly that's not the way to do it yeah do not do not 18 AI related litigation and fraud will accelerate uh yeah we've talked about
this a little bit of interesting like uh game theoretic Dynamic where it's like oh it's gonna be so easy to sue people with AI there's going to be a million loss it's like well it's also going to be very easy to defend yourself with AI and so the AIS will battle it out and maybe it'll net out and there's just like the courts are going to get even
more and more and more backed up like they already yep there's already yearlong delays the adoption level of some of the tech is insane I mean they still don't use cameras they use a person that draws the bull case for AI in the legal industry is it's so good at text and the legal industry is just completely dependent on documents and text and so that adoption
could be faster it's been 100 years since we invented the camera and they're still doing courtroom sketch artists and and then they also have stenographers that write everything down instead of just recording it and transcribing it yeah it's crazy uh yeah rough um a lot of this stuff is just so entrenched in like a bunch of like laws and stuff and
and then there's jobs and politicians and people don't want to change it's just rough uh number 19 state governments will increase sales tax audits to address deficits what a wonky prediction just like I I I wish we knew who did this I mean it's probably true just because that's true in general governments are trying to you know constantly squeeze I
don't know I mean I I I don't know how big sales tax is in some in some states but I know that like if everyone says like oh go to Florida no income tax but uh the property tax Alaska actually has the lowest state tax burden of any of any state because they have they might even have an income tax it's very very low but then they also have really low
fees and really low sales taxes and stuff so something like Florida or Texas might have no income tax but they might have higher business taxes or higher licenses they might make money in different way CU you can't run a state with no money like doesn't make sense um number 20 Tech consolidation will accelerate with bundling Cycles dominating um yeah I mean uh I don't
know I feel I feel like the much the UN the unb like it's it's you can't say that Tech is just bundling or Tech is just unbundling because it's such a ridiculously massive industry at this point it's arguably not even one Standalone industry it's it's hundreds of Industries combined so I don't know I I think that we're going to get into
this later but um gok rajam talks about how really there's going to be this battle between new agentic B2B software and traditional SAS and the sort of like dashboard model and how much of dance can they do like even even Salesforce is changing their business model to like performance outcomes instead of seat licensing yeah um and so if if a company
is big and is Salesforce is leading that charge and like hey it's okay to change your business model I could see a lot of like the the the mid tier SAS companies that are charging seats say hey yeah we should do do the switch like if Salesforce could do it we could definitely figure out 21 and will PE I don't like this I don't like when people are
bearish look at the breakdown in in uh by Dylan Patel and semi analysis of AMD I mean it was like a [ __ ] nuclear bomb going off on that company it was so rough just like brenot model on their chips because it's so buggy and their software so bad and it's like on a performance base AMD is in some ways better than Nvidia just on like cost per flop but like you just
cannot actually run the training and so it's like who's their competition who's going to do it and yeah there's a couple startups that are doing custom chips and stuff and there's tpus But like everyone just needs Nvidia so there just going to keep buying it for a long time and uh I don't know my my uh my shoe shine boy has not uh has not told me to buy Nvidia
yet so that's the top signal usually the the taxi driver what what's that phrase from the from the Great Depression it was like I think it was Hine boy or something it was like when when when your Butler's telling giving you the stock tip then you know it's St yeah s everything uh the IPO Market will see 12 plus high quality debuts let's go we
love to see the window open yep brain health will be prioritized with creation of Aura for the brain yeah there are some pretty cool people working on brain stuff obviously neurolinks like the big one but that's more foring the dreaming one and then the the the former neuralink guy has left and started a new company and then also uh Fred urom
started one with Jeremy Baron Holtz who was that Nur link and that I think that's non-invasive and all the I mean just seeing what's possible with neuralink opens up so many new yeah like opportunities I mean imagine a device that gave you podcasters High throughout the entire day everybody would put it on you could just sit in a tank of fluid
and live in The Matrix would' be great um AI Innovation will shift from scaling compute to algorithmic advancements yep I makes sense that's kind of happening we're seeing that with like the 0103 models like there's clearly so much Ling but at the same at the same time Microsoft is saying we're going to spend 80 billion dollar on new data centers
yes but it's unclear if that's inference or or training I don't think that they specified that that's yeah it's clearly both I yeah I think it's clearly both but but they're clearly scaling they're clearly planning on I think everyone is scaling like everyone is everyone is thinking about what's the next order magnitude larger uh pre-training run or whatever uh and
there's a bit of a data wall but they'll figure that out and once they get all that together uh there should be another level of of value just from getting a GPT 5 model under the hood of something that's already been uh reinforcement learned to death like the 0103 models um 25 real world AI will impact Fortune 500 companies showing up in their financial
performance that's kind of vague I mean certainly I don't know if this is saying it's good or bad but I think you see stocks need to call Mackenzie and get something yeah and you see companies like Clara Clara the CEO has been very smart on getting out just saying we haven't hired anybody in a year type of thing um I don't know if that's true
um take it further he should be like I don't even go to work anymore yeah yeah yeah my not actually doing this interview right now this is I'm fully Genera I'm retired yeah I'm I'm post economic post AGI in my uh you know uh what is it uh fully automated luxury communist era yeah I love that um data center sending will shift significantly towards inference that's what we were
talking about with Microsoft we don't know we'll see um uh tier one GPS from firms like seoa will leave to start their own funds maybe maybe not it's unclear there's a lot of people that made a ton of money in the last run and they might just retire yep and so I I I I agree with the departure or you do the smart thing Sean Maguire you just make take
over the fund yeah just become the fund yes and then pivot the entire brand towards being dark Maga dark magga yeah great um um big move the creation of Doge will bring back civic duty with tech Talent competing with this is my favorite kind of prediction you just say the thing that's been happening for the last three months everybody's like wow
what an Insight but it's cool it's a cool it's a cool Trend I'm I'm I'm bullish it it is definitely happening a lot of tech people are going in and considering government jobs that wouldn't have in the past but it is rough I mean you need to be post-economic because I think like yeah like a lot of these job or there is a thing where when you go into certain
positions in the government you have to sell all of your assets so uh the private markets are often you know a lot of insider trading happen happening if if you're sitting you know if somebody's sitting on a $10 million position of something they don't actually think is worth nearly that much and they can go into the government sell their you know
bags and then uh you know it's a good way to get out yeah AI will accelerate drug development timelines by 3 to 5 years I buy this just on the paperwork side I mean honestly when we when we were uh releas when we were dealing with the FDA and submitting PMT for these different nicotine pouch products every single one of these different color different
application another 100,000 pages of text we actually got to a point where I was talking to our software developer about like using a python API to manipulate Word documents yeah to see if there's a way to go and basically do a very Advanced like find and replace well llms do that basically perfectly and so there's there's a million ways the
paperwork side just the paperwork side is is huge on reducing the cost of this higher throughput and then also ideally on the FDA side they're using these tools too to comb through and find obvious errors and act as a first pass now I imagine there's a bunch of laws that tell them they can't do that and it needs to be human and stuff and it's going to be very difficult but um and
then there's also all like the actual AI drug development stuff where it's like oh let's pull all the data from about thein fing that when Deep Mind solved that the biotech stocks didn't move and so I talked to a buddy of mine who's a biotech investor and I was like everyone in Tech is freaking out about this like they're they're acting like
it's like AGI like the biggest breakthrough ever and it is really cool because it was like this fundamentally hard problem and Deep Mind solved it uh but why aren't why isn't it moving the market and he was like well like it's not actually that big of a like folding is something that you can like yes it's awesome to be able to just like click a
button on the computer and get the result but before that it was like send it off to a machine that costs 50k and a research like assistant at a PhD program will do it for you and it's and it's it's annoying and it takes time but it's not actually the real barrier to like innovation in the space um happiness will be seen as the key to health even
over strict Wellness routines it is funny AI is making trying to predict the future so much more interesting because five years ago six years ago 10 years ago it's like okay we're going to have more mobile apps we have more SAS and now it it's becoming harder and harder and harder because we're getting the sense that AI is going to disrupt so
much of our lives and the way that we work and how our governments work and all these things so actually makes these um you know predictions uh quite a bit harder but definitely more interesting yeah software development will become as easy as creating YouTube videos thanks to AI coding assistance wait we miss did we miss 30 happiness will be seen no I
just said that okay so I have got to disagree with this okay business performance is the key to health even more so than strict Wellness routines that's where I'd push back I love it uh because uh if you have business performance you'll be happy but if you're don't have business performance how how could you possibly y you know actually be happy so software
development become as easy as creating YouTube videos thanks to AI coding assistants that's true and happening with curser and Devon um we're seeing this uh I mean even like the software developers like people in the community are just building tools now for us that previously would be like a 10K contract on thew or something and they're just
doing it in like an hour from their free time for fun and it's great like uh we have these ideas and like they can just instantiated so quickly it's amazing and I do think it will be very cool or um this guy uh you know Trevor from br oh no um he uh so Trevor why am I I don't know blanking on his last name um but he he just posted today that he I I tried to put it in the stack
that he just like made a SAS tool for artists that are managing their like tours basically and and it's becoming it's so much easier it's now the same way that 10 years ago was like oh I want a website and you just like make a website like oh I want this app and you just make it I got to get back into some sort of development stack and like get
the tooling ready like the hardest part is for me is not actually like I'm pretty good at like writing the actual code what sucks is like setting up the environment figuring out how to deploy it making sure it stays up and if there's a Cron job it needs to run every hour and stuff like all these different like devop stuff I always get hung up on
uh back in like the Heroku era I was pretty good and I've seen like repl and and I've played with like a bunch of these different tools but I like I I want I want to be able to just like yeah get with this but I always need like a couple days of dedicated time and I can just never find the time um and the last one Molly O'Shea will become the next
Joe Rogan do it Molly do it but you gotta podcast a lot more and you gotta podcast for a lot longer these one hour Rogan built his business on the three-hour podcast Y and he started with people that were comedians you you go back and you look at the very first Rogan episodes and they're literally everyone's famous it was insane what a
taste maker that guy was it was like Bill Burr episod they weren't necessar were they not famous at time I mean they were like okay comedians back then because it was 20 years ago or something um but it's it's literally every single person from the first like season or first year of Rogan has been on Rogan the last year yeah because he put he
picked everyone correctly yeah and and and that's what ask when you're doing an interview show is do I really think that the person I'm doing this interview with I will have them on in 20 years because I'm that confident they'll be successful Joe Rogan should have been a hedge fund manager capitalist okay great let's move on to Roman Seth Roman met this guy in
New York with pomp great dude he also hosts a very cool event uh down in Newport uh intersection of of pro sports and Venture he did he did some sort of like I think he made his money rolling up staffing agencies and and built a staffing agency and then I think sold it to private equity um uh we love private Equity really really interesting guy uh 25 he gives 25
predictions for 2025 uh Bitcoin hits 200k love it a little bit lower than our price Target which I believe was 25 million but um but we'd love to see 200k um it's a good start yeah one Bitcoin really should get you out of the Nautilus territory and into the uh y the the grand complication territory y uh at retail um S&P 500 sees another 15% gain I agree AI
deflates SAS uh we're still like iffy on that because maybe the SAS companies pivot but like in general yeah and the SAS companies have one thing that upstarts don't which is distribution big customer bases a lot of them can introduce new products so we'll see o OIC gp1s will cross 100 billion in annual sales I don't know what the annual sales are
right now but that sounds right um I was thinking about what is holding people back back from being on gp1s there was this kidney risk for a while people thought that it gave you thyroid canc your heart a little bit is that true I've seen you got to put you got to put the 104 on for that or no no no the studies studies came out okay showing
that it it might shrink your heart a little bit well that could be good because you could be more ruthless you don't want you don't want to have too big of a heart in this world if you have to fire a lot of people yeah um Venture Capital reverts to a cottage industry interesting it's interesting I not going to happen fun sizes we're seeing I I we probably agree on this if
we were to have a longer conversation I think it's clear that if you want to be an independent GP you got to be really [ __ ] good yeah but it's also never been more commercialized it's also yeah it's also like a definition issue because well like if I think about venture capital in the sense of like a person with $50 million fund who's going
to write $51 million seed checks lead them and and really be the first money in at these very early stage companies feels like Venture Capital that feels like a cottage industry you can go and raise a $50 billion fund and say I'm only talking to companies that have a market cap that's higher than 10 billion and I'm just going to do SpaceX
secondary stripe secondary an secondary and and and that can also be Venture Capital when it's like clearly a different thing you're like you're just like I mean we saw in the do com private Market investing yeah it's private marketed investing and and during the do com Boom Like These companies were like overvalued and it was like IPO to $500
million it's like that's a series a now yeah um uh valuation dispersion widens okay seems reasonable um I mean there's still a wash out from the post Zer era uh seven us IPO Market reopens m&a accelerates we talked about this a new top tier college is born how would that happen would that just be like an escalation of be like a new UT University of Austin oh oh you think
he's like he's talking about brand new one or just like it all born to me it's possible it's like all of a sudden like Cal has a couple good years and it's like Cal's in the ivys now yeah um I mean Stanford certainly did that where Stanford's like you know above Brown clearly and it's like MIT Harvard Yale Stanford basically um and a lot of the a
lot of the IVs have kind of fallen off um an AI teacher teaches millions of students at zero cost I don't know how like concentrated the AI teaching will be because I mean yes you could say like chat GPT will teach a million people for sure that's already happening but then you could also say that there's going to be like someone that uses AI to create a
YouTube channel that's like introduction to economics and that gets a million views but then there's going to be someone else that does it for physics and someone else that does it for chemistry and it's like is that all one AI there's going to be a constant question about like what constitutes a single instance of an AI yeah uh but but
I I do agree AI will be incred I mean it's teaching me so much stuff up um India has a blockbuster startup IPO don't care uh outcome based software pricing models just because it's International uh outcome based software pricing models go main stream we talked about this with the Salesforce with Salesforce uh Independent Media overtakes Legacy Media this is the exact
same phrasing as the other one uh we're doing it here we're doing it here folks private credit bubble pops we will lbo uh Bloomberg uh private credit pubble bubble pops hopefully not I don't know that much about private credit honestly hope not I hate to see bubbles pop yeah mag s continues to outperform the rest of the market true longevity products go
mainstream Brian Johnson's kind of doing that um SMB m&a Arbitrage goes away true you're Harvard I think that it's going to be hard to start a plumbing company yeah that we're going to look back and and laugh that it became High status making the search fun repackaging SB ownership and SBS are awesome uh in so many ways but there's a lot of them that
are Better Built from the ground up than you know buying a company with 700k and earnings digital detoxes go mainstream hopefully not in this podcast that be devastating to the show if we if we did a digital detox I mean hopefully the iPad thing the iPad kit thing goes more mainstream I definitely it's it's there's a very firm divide among moms
and parents from what I'm seeing between the iPad the pro iPad and because when when anti- iPad moms see a kid on glued to an iPad they literally look at it like the kid is just smoking heaters like that is the reaction of the Mom they're just like I can not believe that this kid is just glued to the slot machine basically just going um anyways uh inflation moderates
to sub 2.5% I think that's right wh becomes the clear market leader for self-driving probably already uh depends on how you define market leader for self-driving there's a lot of Teslas on the road total value of Teslas with Tesla is really self-driving every video L three versus level four whatever you know it's like all these level and stuff
I don't know I mean yeah with uh with Cruz out of the game who else is even trying in full self GRE who uh Holtz George HS George sorry George Hots is an aftermarket kit he is firmly in the level two Camp he is wants to be he thinks Tesla will still win they will be the iPhone he will be the Android yeah and he thinks weo will go away because
of the cost structure and the design and stuff like that that um but I don't know I'm a little bit more bullish than him on wh it seems to be working really well and when I was in one it was a great experience it wasn't slow and it seems good um patience reemerges as a virtue that's funny uh hubris decreases humility increases you know I I don't
know about hubris like I've been thinking about getting into it and because I just think I'm built different and maybe maybe it doesn't work for other people but maybe for me I think it I think it it it it wears nicely on you yeah I think I could pull it off it's got to when you do it it's just awesome when other people not not so much but
other podcasts other people struggled with it but uh I think I could pull it off yeah and hub is just one of those things you got to you got to indulge in it and see if it's right for you right exactly not everybody looks I mean I was going to say not everybody looks good in a suit not true everybody looks better in a suit but you get what I'm getting
at let's go to 22 logic and reason return to all walks of life business and politics that's hilarious that's a good that's a good it feels like the opposite of what's happening it feels like crazier than ever I I'm full on but in some ways like the Zach announcement today true true saying hey free speech is important it's also content moderation is also important
we're going to try to thread the needle here better that just seems like logic and reason y uh stand stand increase standards have been going up The Innovation train continues to roll love it let's go to Fred Wilson with his what will happen in 2025 he been doing these he's been doing these for a while we should honestly go back and look at some
of the Deep dive for sure I've done a lot of these January 1 look forward posts in the 20 years I've been blogging used many different approaches here are some of his predictions Apple and Google will leverage their existing Market power to surpass open AI chat GPT in consumer AI prompts by the end of 2025 what's interesting is I mean but so the
so they arguably Google already has because now getting so much Ai summ and I don't know about Apple because I mean have you tried the new Apple intelligence I mean you sent me a summary I mean the summaries are the summaries are funny and they're okay they're not super useful but like just actually opening up Siri like I want to
be able to just treat it like chat PT like like Hey Siri give me a summary of you know uh of Fred Wilson's predictions over the last 20 years and I should just get chat PT but with this it's like you have to link your account and then tell it like hey go to chat GPT don't stick around on the local phone I want you to go to the actual big model and it's like
it's iffy I they'll figure it out but it's like it is tricky uh and I still think chat.com and and chat gbt is still just like mentally a place where people go and I think underrated is like is like I see I think if you look at some of the new product development that open AI is working on it's a lot of like uh creating like a notebook almost where
it's more collaborative and you can edit and develop a document and that's I I see it as a new workspace like a spreadsheet and I'm like okay I'm going to go do some work with an llm and I want to and I need a new browser tab for that yeah and Google doesn't have that yet like they have Gemini studio and a million different like like beta
products they have the Google search results which are like kind of helpful if you're just searching you don't want to see a million sponsored posts and links and stuff but it I'm never going to Google with like I'm going to work on collaboratively and really understand this topic in depth and because if I'm if I'm researching cars or something I'm
going to want to follow up and ask a bunch of different questions okay give me the full history of Ferrari now compare it to Lamborghini now create a table now export all that now give me the highest rank it Resort it all this stuff that's something that I want to do in its own environment its own UI and and they don't have that uh weo will
surpass Uber and taken in San Francisco and Los Angeles by the end of 2025 certainly seems like that's happening in San Francisco um and I can see it happening in La uh I don't know about La just based on they would have to drop 10 times more I mean depends on what yeah lot lot more I bet you could figure out how many they're planning city or county Fred you got to be more
precise because there's wildly different Geographic areas between Los Angeles city and Los Angeles County um but the if they're just in downtown absolutely Ely no problem direct bank-to-bank payments will surpass credit card interchange payments in a few categories in the US in 2025 I have no idea how they're tracking right now yeah um it
could have been either one of those could be 10x the other and I wouldn't know but cool the real prediction is will the technology Brothers use stable coins to purchase a GT3 RS uh by the end of 20125 we'll definitely be using uh that that Bitcoin leverage one laa lava where we can pull the debt out of the Bitcoin yeah I want a GT3 RS secured by my Bitcoin for sure
um a decentralized clinical trial attracts millions of participants and produces a favorable outcome in Trump's FDA not only approves the drug but celebrates the approach seems like an aggressive timeline short timeline y but seems somewhat reasonable but what's weird is that it's like how do you do a decentralized clinical trial that also requires test a
drug because like so let's say I'm a drug developer and I'm like okay what's what's a very basic thing that like okay everyone's having trouble sleeping so I'm G to make melatonin 2.0 right and I formulate it in my kitchen and I'm like I got something that I think is good but we don't know if it's safe or effective and so we're going to do decentralized
trial you're listening to the podcast go to melatone and 2.0. comom to like test it out and we'll send it to you okay you're immediately violating FDA rules so they need could decentralized trial every sharing sleep data and a recommendation comes out of that has to be data oriented I would see I could see Maha pulling something in where it's like we want to
know everyone in America now has the opportunity to share their seed oil consumption and their body fat percentage and we're going to run some massive correlative study on this like that could be interesting but um just just alone like drug development I I just think a year is too short uh a housekeeper robot named Judy is launched
by Dyson and it becomes a massive success selling millions of units huh again timeline issue here uh are they planning to do this I don't I I looked it up and I didn't see anything from Dyson yeah I think Judy is some reference to a robot in some movie at some point I I just wonder like okay so doesn't have a Roomba right and would Roomba count as a housekeeping robot
yeah I don't know Dyson's such a cool company it is yeah senra has done three episodes you got to go listen to Founders I don't know the exact numbers but he's posted about it so you can go find those um nft art left for dead in the in at the end of 2024 makes a remarkable comeback and the MoMA purchases the 6529 Museum of Art for an undisclosed
some I don't know exactly what nft project that is um I it's not a specific project it's a collector who's put together yeah bunch of stuff bunch of great nft works I mean I I think that art values come from from stories yeah you like wasn't it van go cut off his ear yeah like by doing that he canonized himself and the art there's probably another brother cut off your ear put it
on the blockchain sell it to the MoMA no I mean Da Vinci like why is the Mona Lisa so valuable like it's not it is like this like groundbreaking beautiful portrait but also like there's the whole history of Da Vinci inventing flying machines and stuff like like that gives it more value and and it's the same thing with like you know warhall and
commenting on capitalism and consumerism stuff like the story is always what drives the value with these things and so will some nft project wind up having a fantastic story absolutely I think Moxy Marlin SP pudy penguin selling in Target pudgey Penguins is almost a different thing because it's like it's just a commercial like business it's
almost like yeah it's almost like a brand like supreme or something where it will have value as a commercial brand but I think just pure nft art which I wouldn't even put pudgy penguins in will have value in the sense like the one of my favorite things that we did back in the day at party round is we posted on there was this time that was like it was
like everybody would post like reply with your wallet address and we'll aird drop you something and so we had a bunch of people do that and then we aird dropped everyone nfts that were ads for party round which is great because you send somebody an nft and it just sits in their wallet and they actually have to pay to get it out of their wallet so we
just airdrop I remember we put an ad in like Dylan fields wallet that was like this is an ad for party round and like like comic Sands yeah see like that has that has a Providence where it's like this stunt there's history around it there's a story like those might actually yeah ironically wind up being worth something yeah uh the the the nft
that I think has almost the most value is Moxy Marlin spikes as you saw so he was very bearish on nfts and what he did was he said you know everyone's saying these are decentralized but I created he created an nft that when it's viewed on openc it shows you one thing when it's viewed in a ethereum wallet it shows you a different thing pH wallet shows you
different one and and one of them was just like a it showed it rendered a poop emoji the other one rendered some joke and and fun yeah and he wrote this real blog post like taking down and like really analyzing what was wrong with nfts and where people were getting over their skis and and I was like that nft it's only it's a one of one and it's by
Moxy Marlin Mike the founder of signal like a [Music] I tried to buy it off of him but he was like how much do you how much will you pay me and I was like I don't actually know I haven't thought about what what it's worth but I should go and buy it from him um let's keep going an AI doctor with the personality of Mr Rogers will treat millions of patients at zero
cost in 2025 this is basically just chat gbt and you just prompt it to to to talk like Mr Rogers and then boom I actually do wonder I wonder how many queries on chat GPT are already like medical diagnoses type things probably a lot um I just wonder like this makes it sound like it's someone fine-tuning it and when you go there you always get Mr
Rogers and I don't know if that's the winning world what what's up fire from uh whoa there's a fire going on in palad in the Palisades right now yeah and this is brother-in-law sending a picture from Century City okay so you can see the Flames just ripping crazy all right back to the podcast Bitcoin mining operation will pair with a wind farm in New
Finland and grid scale battery storage to power an AI data center showcasing a new model for sustainable infrastructure a lot of buzzwords and this is already happening this is this is cruso this is cruo cloud like they were a Bitcoin M mining operation they had peer plants on natural gas uh extraction and but they also use wind and all sorts of stuff
they use grid scale battery storage and they power AI data centers now so yeah bullish on ciso I guess um Arizona's Esa program attracts over 25% of K12 students in the state leading to a number of local school closures I don't know enough about the esa program to com home assume it's something like that um but always bullish on new models of
Education 10 an AI produces an animated feature film that is nominated for for an Oscar not going to happen in 2025 but probably soon I wouldn't be surprised if there's an Oscar nominated film that uses an AI generated image or sequence I don't know about the whole film and certainly not one sh if Hollywood is not creating their own like proprietary
tools yep to generate y content they're [ __ ] it it is the best example of AI being used in Hollywood right now there's few one was in uh in the Marvel endgame Avengers movie with Thanos they have to animate his mouth and his skin and when they uh did he not chew enough mask or something yeah when they put the dots on his face and then they uh do the
facial capture to get the motion but it's not high resolution enough and they use an AI model to upscale the motion capture data essentially and then I saw another version where a film that was that was uh produced in maybe polish or German was translated into English and they used AI to do replace the mouth movements interesting but they also use
CGI so a lot of these a lot of this AI stuff is going deeper into the CGI pipelines and so right now if if you're whenever you see those behind the scenes and it's like some some Soldier fighting on a green screen it's like that's not always just one click the button and the green screen goes away a lot of times it's like well there's wires and stuff
so they still send it out usually to abroad and they have a bunch of people literally drawing around the edges of every single frame and they just have hundreds of people doing it called rotoscoping and then there might be an AI tool that also is integrated in there and so you know a lot of it's like what what's the definition I disagree with
the idea that there'll be a one shot AI like make me a movie Oscar no way but if there's someone who has a great vision and they need a couple frames of like b-roll and stuff and they fill in the story I think in 2025 the one shot the one shot videos are they're gonna they're they're goingon to fight back against this and they're not going to give it just because of the statement it
makes yeah yeah um a taxi an air taxi service launches in New York City offering an alternative to the El Train commute W I would love that are we talking helicopters or are we talking flying cars what about the the v v you know there's Archer the figure Founders lasty will scale in terms of manufacturing yet and I don't think many of them are fa
but the thing so I think what I like about what Fred does with these is he's just putting out what he wants to happen he doesn't really care if it happens now or in 10 years he just wants it to happen no no no these are just like it's almost like a request it's great uh Tik Tok turns all into meme coins that can be traded on decentralized exchanges all
over the world that's funny I wonder like that I that that feels like useless if it's just collector items but maybe valuable if you're able to instantly sell the revenue from a video the problem is is that Tik Tok doesn't have really long half lives like you get a million views and then you're done and maybe the Creator payout that week is a
yeah it's kind of interesting to think okay I'm watching this video at sub 10,000 views can I buy a piece of it and maybe it trades for some of my videos get millions of views every month forever like like I put one out that's on the history of Donald Trump it has 3 million views now that video alone probably generates over $1,000 do a month yeah and so I could in theory sell
that off and then share that whoever buys it gets that Revenue stream and there are services that do that it was called there was something that was really hot in the YouTube space and a bunch of YouTubers like sold their back cataloges and then like hous PR yeah it wasn't I I I I do think that um didn't Mr Beast do that to helped fund some of
these bigger videos which is great and and there's a long history of this with like the Beatles selling the back catalog Michael Jackson yeah big artists have been doing this forever and there were a lot of people that made a ton of money doing that because they bought they bought the right asset and it went really big and then there's obviously
like the famous Taylor Swift argument about how she sold it and then had buyers or sellers remorse um very interesting and number 13 the USV librarian goes Rogue gets access to usvs crypto wallet and starts making seed Investments one of which turns into a fund returner he's just manifesting at this point love it like yeah so librarian is like a AI that they trained
on something else uh should we go to nille Basu tretti who writes the next big thing in 20125 will be I've always I've always Nel's got a very dialed format yeah these are great because he runs a Blog but for his predictions he asks a ton of people to uh to give their predictions then he just agregates them and he gets some really top people I
mean General partner at Benchmark 3.5 D from Deli partner attim timer oh he's in here that's great uh Jess Lee at seoa lots of good people so uh we should just kind of skip through these pick like the maybe the best one from each category uh let's go with AI agents and I want to hear what Claude has to say that's funny he asked Claude
3.5 sonnet and Claude says the next big thing in 2025 will be the widespread op option of AI agents that can autonomously handle complex multi-step tasks from scheduling your entire vacation to managing your small business operations while being fully aligned with individual users preferences and values this shift will Mark the beginning of truly personalized AI
assistance that goes far beyond today's basic chat Bots and virtual assistance um I mean it's certainly happening in Niche categories right now with like dedicated startups that do things from end to end and I would love to see more of this because we have plenty of multi-step tasks that can be prompted I mean we saw dwar cash talking about just
doing the transcripts from his like messy podcast transcripts with lots of ums and O and he has a master prompt but it's really just one-shotting it it's one it's one prompt um it's much better if he could just have a an AI agent sitting there and says hey as soon as this RSS feed gets updated step one download the download the MP3 step two
send it over to whisper get it transcribed step run the transcript step four upload the transcript like do that for me too don't just give me the text I want it I want it live and I want it just sitting there uh we have uh there was a fan of the show who wrote in and said I'll do your your uh your title ideas and send in some uh some chapters we get a lot of
people asking for chapters on YouTube and that's a great thing that AI should do eventually YouTube will do it automatically they have some automatic chapters functionality but uh we'd love more fine-tune control over it so agent would be fantastic there AI interfaces uh let's go to altimeter uh jamine ball says I'm on the second page here uh and
on AI interfaces uh jamine ball says the next big thing in 2025 will be a Cambrian explosion of voice AI applications latency on inference latency on networking and more advanced turn detection background background noise detection will lead to truly humanlike experiences with software as we the just to make make it relevant to some stuff we talked about before this
is the bull case for friend is that if the underlying technology gets dramatically better yep and then you have this device that's with you 247 it could turn into the craziest relationship you've ever had yeah right yeah um yeah it's also interesting like like what are you looking for in a relationship like if it's capable of being like a friend then you know it's
also capable of just being like an assistant and just bouncing ideas off you secretary yeah uh nothing will ever replace a world class secretary let's talk through Eric newcomer um he on on AI applications he says the next big thing in 2025 will be in the world of artificial intelligence where it's going to be cool to be a GPT rapper again
consumers and businesses both need help figuring out how best to use already very powerful language models so we're going to see a bunch of applications crop up that help people get the most out of these models startups will build sales promotions Integrations customer knowhow Etc and won't need some huge technological moat to justify their
existence of course no one will want to call their company a rapper think more GPT refiner these companies will get data particular to their use case do some human reinforcement learning and deliver an easy to use product that leads the horse to water instead of intimidating empty You're Building you're basically building the interface for the model yep that makes sense AI
generated content let's go to Demir index he says the next big thing will be video generation models video is the ultimate form of creative expression and how we produce it will fundamentally be transformed as a result of Next Generation models yep I agree have you played with Sora yet I think I think I have access CHP Pro but I haven't
actually done it um I think it should be useful for our editors to pull b-roll and stuff but the most unhinge SLO b roll some of the some of the SLO b rolls like it's the question is like when is it helpful to illustrate something and usually I feel like you want a very specific shot but it can be I'm ready for somebody to make the the um somebody
just needs to fully lean in uh I don't endorse this but it'd be funny uh the the iasa visualization Engine with Sora where it just takes you through the gigas slop like mental journey of an i yeah um let's just keep moving uh bsky always sharp he says the next big thing in 2025 will be top AI Talent shifting from working in companies pioneering the
latest and greatest AI to taking leadership roles in the industry that benefit most from AI uh I won't go further but that's interesting it's basically you know right now the top AI Talent is working at AI companies but then eventually it's like hey could you have a bigger impact if you went and worked at a company like flexport right and like became a leader
in the at the intersection of AI and Logistics right oh let's go to d uh in the not AI category the next big thing in 2025 will be a counter movement to AI content overload bringing bringing Focus back to human curation and authenticity infinite AI generated content is still in its wow and Novelty phase but anytime there's an abundance of an asset the
pendulum swings to the other side where people appreciate the scarce assets that come with quality which in information's case is trust as trust becomes scarce influence will concentrate among select curators and experts that um who who who can use AI to scale their validated perspectives while maintaining credibility these curators will have
unprecedented reach and impact as they'll be able to maintain personal connections at scale through AI enhanced interactions while preserving the authenticity that made people trust them in the first place interesting yeah Dar always sharp uh Nicole whof you got to know what questions to ask yeah Nicole wiof says the next big thing in 2025
will not be AI as the main character bets have been made and there are many hot takes on commoditization and models the physical infrastructure will be the really important Conversation Energy data centers and the Trump admin coming in more thoughts will go into how we power Ai and not the outcomes of AI which has dominated all of 2024 that's a good interesting
um uh here let's go to Gary tan the next big thing in 2025 will be startups of 10 people getting to 10 million ARR in less than 18 months with less than 5 million raised this is why I mean it's hard to imagine any company better positioned than YC yeah um I could yeah it's probably one of the greatest business models of all time fantastic um uh product so I like this one from
from Michael uh light speed he says the next big thing in 2025 will be the return of the product oriented Founder The Magic of AI technology that led to instant pmf for so many companies is starting to Wayne what's needed now is exceptional products that solve real problems and the teams that can natively build them so um yeah I think uh I've
seen that I think I think we've seen that in the last six months or so where Founders that had been building something and maybe exited like Jordan Jordan singer are now getting back in the game starting from scratch thinking in a very AI native way uh there's another one here on gp1s the next big thing will be a second win for glp1 drugs is from Nan Lee at demension
already a blockbuster product in obesity and diabetes headed toward 50 billion of annual sales remember the other prediction we saw there was 100 2x uh this class of medicines will be further bolstered by new research findings first off there seems to be no limit to what diseases glp1 biology is linked to as a label expansion studies continue to
create strong signal in everything from sleep apnea now FDA approved to Chronic heart failure funny I saw so there's a uh a week ago yep at the Aman it's very nice hotel saw saw uh this individual who I spoke to at one point very large and I just kept thinking like seemingly like uncomfortably large and I was thinking like why like there's still it seems like be
being overweight will become somewhat of a choice but some people are still going to just choose to not because you want to physically intimidate your opponents yeah be a size Lord exactly um maybe that's a good prediction will manius puts the weight back AR for rock got to mention it here the next big thing in 2025 will be hemp
based THC the US market for Delta 8 THC and other hemp drive cannabinoids has increased by whopping 1200% in just three years going from 200 million to 2.8 billion uh I think marijuana should beaned banned uh but uh anyways um Delan I like co-founder at Vera and partner at Founders fund says the next big thing in 2025 will be regular ings on the moon of
equipment to prepare for people shortly thereafter love that love that I mean we we should send some full podcast Studio up there just to get get ready the first podcast Studio on the Mir it's great let's see what else we got IPOs Goku rarum at Marathon says the next big thing will be Tech and IPO markets booming agree big Tech earnings Chad
buer says the next big thing will be mainstream adoption of Agents in large Enterprise leading to increased earnings and quarterly beats resulting in continued stock alltime High We Love quarterly beats among hyperscalers I love it should we close with our own predictions we asked 24 billionaires for their 2025 Tech predictions and here they are Mark andrion gets hair
transplants artificial intelligence will get better that's the best the best prediction possible artificial intelligence CU because it seems like you just can't miss on that exactly and if predictions are all about it's not about being saying cool things it's about being right exactly uh speaking of being right Bitcoin hits 25 million per
coin I think we got that one in the bag uh Keith R boy becomes a mass monster and gets his ifbb Pro card big uh most of the major cities will be replaced with vast pleasure domes used exclusively by The excelsi ites Who are the Neo uper class while the displaced hordes of lower class depth LLY toiling away for nug for nuggets of neop plasmid do you know what that's
from you got to look it up one day you got uh venture capitalist formally becomes a slur in the Oxford English Dictionary I love that data bricks IPO prices above $147 a share you got kind of pull the number out of the Hat on that one but uh 50% premium to last price I think yeah underperformance of European VCS results in Mass famine and
Chaos on the continent most EU country's backslide into feudalism love it I think that's as long as it remains a great vacation destination for hardworking Americans yes yeah it's like our Disneyland uh Elizabeth Holmes has a stunning comeback I think that's in the bag Venture back defense tech companies collectively rack up over 100,000
confirmed kills well on our way Mark Zuckerberg gets really into lawn care I think the Bro Arc of Zuckerberg is like he got into grilling he got into watches watches cars cars minivans steak you got big in a steak yeah he's I think he's going to go precision rifle series PRS long range long distance custom rifle builds that's that that's definitely happening he
needs to buy an F1 team that would be a good like why does meta not have like meta racing like that would just be fantastic meta has the best meta has the best advertising network of all time he should buy the NFL the NBA the WWE the UFC and F1 all of it not just a team the whole thing yeah uh two GPS at tier one funds will go to jail I think we know what we're
talking about there virtual reality will have a major moment that's exciting that's exciting that's exciting after years of financial mismanagement the all-in podcast will declare bankruptcy and be acquired by private Equity that sad that hurts that we hate to see a good podcast go down but they lost the numbers are what they lost their they
lost their top dog they lost their star their absolute dog and the revenue's just been too low yeah that's the problem they're not going to be the most profitable podcast without with relying on events for Revenue yeah a major investigative journalist will write an expose on humiliation rituals Adventure Capital firms we' we've heard a lot
about those uh ramp will continue to offer a seamless corporate card experience to the best private and public companies on Earth big game hunting replaces skiing is the goto VC offsite activity you know we posted before the uh before all the chaos at Veil you know you're not hearing a lot of chaos on the Serengeti there aren't a lot of line lift lines to go hunt a
tiger or a lion so yeah seems like an obvious trade big game hunting we we're going to do a Brothers big game hunting trip at some point for sure another VC will be fired for not being able to hold his liquor I think we know who we're talking about there yeah but there is the blackout to fund manager pipeline still exists yep uh the new Tesla
Roadster will finally ship and it will have a naturally aspirated V12 and a gated manual let's go I'm excited for that I'm I'm seriously considering putting a reservation down on the new Roadster I think it's going to be awesome it's a goody I think I think this is the year he's going to deliver it he's been for ever delayed but now like everything's clear stocks at
alltime highs like he's got all the approvals and stuff like he needs a new Halo car like it would just be so SI um I think he's letting the Cyber Tru kind of hype yeah play out yeah it's going to look looks so good the cyberon look like a cybertruck Huracan that'd be awesome that' be wild I hope I hope he I really hope he takes the cybertruck Aesthetics
into the Roadster I don't want the Roadster to look like the old Roadster at all that's true or the mod a very they all look exactly the same and they look super boring to me the Cyber truck I think looks sick so take shink it down yeah that'd be so good yeah um that would honestly be if it if it felt more like a Lamborghini than a like a
futuristic Lamborghini yeah it shouldn't look like an elase yeah that makes me want to what what what's the actual I think you put down like 10K or something yeah but the whole thing is like you could just put money in uh in Tesla stock YC will fund a company that makes humanoid robots with guns for arms I like that YC has been getting more into
the military-industrial complex we love to see it LPS finally start refusing to back GPS that wear shorts in a business setting a rough one every Tech podcast not releasing daily episodes will Fade Into Obscurity in the face of Relentless competition from the technology Brothers fact check true not even as much of a prediction just a fact yeah AI agents
will cause homelessness in San Francisco to fall to 0% but their methods will be harshly criticized by the public happen there deadly Brian Johnson will die in a hail of gunfire during a raid on a top secret government biolab that contains a fountain of youth Elixir what did we miss Miss let us know DM us if you have predictions and that
concludes our deep predictions for 2025 we have to di something we got to let's take a quick uh okay let's take a quick break welcome back to the technology Brothers still the most profitable podcast in the world La is still burning down we're still podcasting we have some breaking news though Mark Zuckerberg has announced that meta will be relaxing the
what do you call it censorship I guess censorship hey guys we're dialing back the censorship it got kind of out of control the announcement video was so funny because Zuck has this style where he's just like he direct a camera he's just like hey guys I just want to give you an update and normally it's like you know we're really excited to announce
like Creator monetization but with this one it was just like oh my God it's getting so much more extreme and it's just like we're not going to penalize people for you know talking about politics anymore and it's like okay that's pretty reasonable it's like we're going to have this community notes feature and we're going to let that do a lot of the work so it's Community
policed and you know we're we're not like like the the the automated systems make a lot of mistakes it's like oh that's reasonable he's like oh and by the way we're moving our trust and safety organization from San Francisco to Texas to to the great state of Texas it's like oh my God it's like a bomb going off in terms of cultural change
yeah wild but all of that is just a sideshow to the real the real reason why we need to talk about about this story clearly the real reason why he made the video yes 100% it's because he needed to show off his beautiful $1 million G gral fory handmade one watch and so we have a post here from Dee says Zuck was wearing a $1 million watch in his community
notes announcement video nothing says I understand the culture shift of the community more than a watch that costs more than most people houses that's true I don't know if he's joking but like that's true eratic a million watch why it's we're going you what makes this watch so special and why it's actually fine and cool and great and it's awesome that a
celebration of his success yes meta success and watchmaking the numbers he's put up not just a billion 1.5 trillion big that's how much value created capital T I was I was trying to run the numbers and I was like anybody that creates a trillion dollar company should wear at least a million dollar watch as their daily driver period arguably you
adjust just for his wealth I don't know if you can find a watch maybe on Teemu if you're if you make a $100,000 the equivalent watch as percentage of income is like a 5cent watch yeah like he spent I would actually like to see him utilizing the real estate on actually both watches yeah and also you got to ice this out he he should definitely be
icing this out flood it with ice out the hand with uh the top tier diamonds flood flood no lab grown diamonds no straight from the earth exactly the most arm to table diamonds it's got to be in the 10 50 get into 100 million make make the uh make the the what what's the watch where the the hallucination you got to make that look like a CIA yeah yeah make it
look like a CIA so the gral fory handmade one it's a 43.5 mm in white gold it represents the Pinnacle of Old World watchmaking techniques in a modern era priced well into the hundreds of thousands of dollars often cited around or above 800,000 I saw one for sale for 96,000 interesting interestingly there was a news article that said it was
$900,000 watch I found it for 906 let's put him in the truth Zone I want a community I want a community note on it uh there are only two or three produced each year within the realm of hot horology or high horology it occupies a level of craftsmanship exclusivity and finish that sets it apart from either from even from other superlative luxury
watches there's incredible Rarity only two to three pieces made per year each requires 6,000 hours of handiwork it's crazy too because now every product manager in the valley is going to be trying to get this watch and the question was will become are they going to increase their allocations because you know there's going to be people
banging down the door saying please make this watch I work at I work at Uber I'm a product manager I make a couple hundred thousand dollars a month I want you know a nice piece that I can wear to work uh and yeah so have you seen the other gral forces they're incredible the the non the non handmade so no no no uh they I think they're all handmade well they're
all handmade but handmade one is is the specific model look at this one dude it has a it has a physical model of the world it's like threedimensional you got to look this up we'll put a picture up on the video but um it it has a picture of the world that rotates to show you like what time it is across the world so amazing incredible it's incredible um
the traditional method over 95% of the parts are fabricated using centuries old fully manual techniques making it distinct from even most hand-finished pieces yep time intensive components the escapement lever alone can take one and a half months to create yep uh three the three years of full-time work go into producing each watch an incredible
investment in time so these are very rare fewer than three pieces per year one of the rarest series produced watches in the world typically quoted around 800k 95% handmade aside from the sapphire crystals pivot Jewels G gaskets strap spring bars and the main spring every single part is executed by hand and have you ever seen any of these
videos breaking down like how these individual independent watch makers work it's like they actually have every single tool like and they need to like file down oh oh we need a gear let's make it from scratch it's crazy the escapement lever that's like with us yeah podcasting we need a new microphone make let's make it from scratch we really should get some like extremely
rare handmade uh there are some C actually one of my friends from high school his dad that was their business they made uh handmade microphones for record recording artists and when you listen to like you know oh like yeah like the Rolling Stones use this microphone yeah and it's just like actually like the top tier that was like his high school job was like helping
assemble stuff uh it has a turbon and train wheels that take 600 times longer to produce uh think the era of just AI slot products like Ultra Ultra hand it will become cool again for somebody to say I'm going to hand wine bottles and this is why you can't write this off as just like oh it's just rich guy [ __ ] because Zuck is a technologist and
watchmaking is in some way a pinnacle of Technology like we didn't have the ability to make this it's just mechanical it's not computer science but there's something that's when you look at a really fine handmade watch you're you're realizing like an expertise in craftsmanship that you want to bring to yes even the ad platform software like
that that's the same same concept um the dial and finishing the minute track and seconds subdial are executed in true fired enamal enamel requiring multiple firings at 800 degrees C uh the silver bridges known as malakort in French they feature a frosted finish achieved by repetitive dabbing with a STI wire brush the copper content gives these Bridges
their soft golden hue mirror polishing every bridge and wheel includes expertly polished bevels many feature sharp in witted angles which are extremely challenging to master each screw grow goes through 12 different manual steps and can require around eight hours to produce finishes vary between black polish and fired blue steel all color match meticulously incredible a one
minute turbon made of 69 Parts the turbon I got to get a turbon watch for sure so sick it originally I I believe the turbon was designed to offset the uh I think it was in pocket watches maybe wrist watches too but uh if you're watch us sitting there at an angle there's gravity on it in One Direction and so that would throw off the timek keeping
and so the turbon was uh spinning to offset that a little bit um now there's other ways to to build a watch that keeps time more accurately even in the mechanical realm um but the turbon is still just like a fascinating thing to look at and with this watch the turbon is actually exposed so you can look at it from the from the face from the uh
from the dial incredible yeah uh you got to have screws that take at least eight hours to produce in your watch else what are you doing uh the large balance is free sprung and adjusted in six positions beating at three Hertz the hairspring is shaped by hand to include an over coil minimizing positional air has a 60-hour manual wind which is quite
robust given the large turbon assembly golden chatts traditional pocket watch style chatts uh hold each pivot Jewel an homage to 19th century techniques while also aiding in serviceability and the base plate on the reverse side features a gramain or hand scraped finished no two plates are identical there's a ratchet wheel a year plate and name plate oh yeah that's a
really fun it says the year that it was made on the face of the watch and so one in rose gold one in white gold showcasing multimetal accents each watch was also inscribed with a year and number denoting its place among the two or three made that year so you can instantly look at your watch and know exactly it's kind of like uh with those
like the super rare sports cars limited allocation they will say okay this is number on theine well yeah I mean even even for like you know uh like a somewhat limited run like a mercy logo or something uh people will look at the VIN and they'll track all the vins are you familiar with like Vin Wiki have you seen this yeah so people track down all
the vins and then they'll know okay there's 2,000 of these cars made and then a lot of times people will track down the vins and realize that there's actually a lot less of them that people thought because they crashed or they were sent overseas or something and that can drive the value up but something like this you you know you look at the
uh you look at the uh the number right on the watch to remind you how exclusive it is I love it and the the thing for me is he he clearly was very particular about choosing this watch for this announcement you don't you don't throw this on by chance you don't wake up in the morning and say oh I'm gonna you know you don't you really it's a very
intentional decision but with Zach it's thinking about all the watches that he could have that he brushed over and chose not to put on this morning and I and I want to know aboutus could have cubus completely different cubus cubus would have been quite the statement quite the St lot of people a lot of people wanted to see him throw on fpj which he has and it's beautiful but VC
brags you know I was talking about wanted to throw the fpj uh but the fpj is it's still an independent watchmaker Fran W Paul jour's obviously a fantastic watchmaker but it's a little bit more welln yeah than something like this and this should just be a wakeup call for Tech Executives broadly I agree that you need to be taking clocks more seriously
yes yes take time more seriously yeah this is the thing about a watch people say even even Elon in many ways talking about you know unregrettably in his life and that's incredible place that's meaningful making incredible signings it's comparable only to itself I love it epitomizes the Devotion to genuine handmade craftsmanship nearly
everything is done by traditional techniques seldom seen in modern watchmaking are you okay uh yeah I think we just got an evacuation order so probably got to hit the road um okay well it'll be a short episode I mean we will be on not exactly not exactly the short I think we still clocked clocked a couple hours follow us on X follow us on
YouTube follow us on Spotify Brothers I'm sorry to cut the timeline out of this episode but we'll be back tomorrow and in my defense there's an evacuation order at my house and I can't in good conscious uh and we have some great uh polished pieces going out on X these are the the brother of the week award the reply guy of the week award the size gong the Personnel news
we've theodes record them weedit them and they go out exclusively on X exclusive Cs on X and so make sure you follow us there turn the notifications on and make sure reply there's a big there's going to be about 50 reply guys of the week this this year yep and many of those people will go on to join the Forbes list to start trillion dollar
companies to raise mango seed rounds do many great things to win the Kentucky Derby right to winu we can't get out here this one is encouraging to you you might be worried about your house burning down but we're going to Josh Steinman and he's saying good morning we are going to win and that's a great place to close it thank you Brothers we'll see you tomorrow bye