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5:02
>> Today is Friday, September 19th, 2025.
5:05
We are live from the TBPN Ultra Dome, the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital.
5:11
>> Thank you to everyone in the chat. It is teeming today. >> Love to see it.
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Uh, the first message I saw was thank you to ramp for another >> TBPN Friday. Thank you to ramp ramp. com. Time is money. Save both.
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Easy to use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place.
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>> We have we have new uh sound effects from the team by the way. Hit hit him. >> There we go.
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I'm hearing multiple things. This is getting crazy.
5:40
>> And we have a special guest today. Let's go. Let's go to the wide.
5:43
>> Yes, we have turbo puffer. puffer here. >> Look at this.
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>> It doesn't show how 3D is >> I mean it this this it is absolutely stunning.
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>> Turbo puffer clock >> and it's functional too.
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>> Course search every bite turbo puffer.
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We're puffing serverless vector and full text >> puffing.
6:01
I'm going to from first principles on object storage 10x cheaper extremely scalable. >> Go to the gong cave.
6:11
>> Thank you Turbo Puffer from supporting us.
6:13
excited to dig deeper into that company.
6:15
There's some fun stuff to share at some point.
6:17
Uh anyway, um the big news, Colossus 2 XAI, uh it seems like it's going well.
6:25
People have been uh saying Elon spread too thin.
6:27
Starships, you know, crashing into the firmament every two seconds.
6:32
Uh Starships landed, came back.
6:35
The haters are I mean, he pulled back from politics.
6:38
It seems like there's a lot of >> ladder the huge L for the you know firmament believers. Yes. After the last launch. >> Yes.
6:45
Elon made it to space and back and making progress on Colossus 2 the data center.
6:50
>> 10 20 minutes ago CNBC is reporting that XAI raised a fresh 10 billion at 200 billion. >> Wow.
6:57
>> Uh that just hit the timeline. >> There we go.
7:01
>> Uh Dylan Patel headline did you put a headline in the in the >> in the newsletter?
7:07
>> In the newsletter today. >> Yes.
7:08
X AI if you build it they will come.
7:10
Oh >> okay >> because his plan is to is to build the biggest data center the first gigawatt data center in the world and semi analysis says they have a unique RL methodology.
7:21
It's focused less on these RL environments for specific business use cases.
7:26
We're not hearing about them cloning Door Dash or Amazon or creating a unique browser use like go solve a very specific they're not trying to build deep research RL environments.
7:38
They're building Annie the romantic companion which is an RL environment that feeds off of human interaction.
7:43
And so semi analysis has a very interesting take.
7:48
>> Harvest it >> potentially potentially.
7:49
But uh uh Dylan says uh every time you think Elon has lost his touch or is failing, he does some crazy stuff and you're like, damn, he really still got it.
7:58
How Elon is building the largest data center in the world faster than anyone else is amazing.
8:04
Also, what they're doing on the RL side is equally nuts.
8:05
Um there's a bunch of uh there's a bunch of posts here and bunch of bunch of interesting.
8:12
>> Do not go data center for data center with the goat. >> Yes.
8:15
So I mean he got into this game late.
8:18
He found he co-founded it's going to be the 10 year anniversary of co-founding OpenAI.
8:21
December 2015 is when he co-founded OpenAI and we're coming up on December of 2025 and he's about to have a data center that's on par. It's close to uh OpenAI.
8:31
It's not yet bigger but they're getting there.
8:35
Uh this is uh semi- analysis breaks down the uh megawatts of IT capacity which is effectively the total AI training data center capacity.
8:45
OpenAI is still ahead of of XAI, but Elon's pulling out every possible trick play to catch up to the firm he co-founded.
8:52
They're now ahead of Anthropic and Meta Super Intelligence according to Semi analysis's data.
8:56
Uh you can go deeper and obviously subscribe and if you upgrade to the most high tier, you get their data center model and they'll even tell you what Google's doing which is much more complex because Google trains across multiple data centers.
9:08
So um everyone loved Colossus 1 uh from built from the ground up in 122 days.
9:14
It had 300 megawatts of IT power which is now small potatoes because the next one's three times bigger.
9:20
Uh Zuck has talked about Hyperion and Prometheus shortly after going on his MSL hiring spree.
9:25
OpenAI is of course working on Stargate in partnership with Crusoe and Oracle and others.
9:32
>> Also in Alex Heath, Alex Heath interview the other day was saying that uh I think it released yesterday >> that uh he believes we might be in an AI bubble. >> Zuck didn't say that.
9:42
That was an interpretation of the Zuck clip. >> Interesting.
9:48
>> So, so I saw that post.
9:48
We should pull up the actual clip and and and review what Zuck said because I believe that this was somebody adding a caption and interpreting the vibes that were coming off of that particular interaction between Alex Heath uh who just launched a new Substacking podcast.
10:05
Let's listen to this uh interview with Mark Zuckerberg.
10:09
>> Out of the way, that's kind of my job for them.
10:10
>> Yeah, you were talking about the capex and the data centers.
10:11
you obviously see something on the other side of that that will warrant that being worth it.
10:14
Um, but I'm wondering, do you ascribe to these these bubble fears at all that people are talking about that we're in this massive uh overspending getting ahead of the skis bubble and maybe a company like Metal will be okay because you guys do have a core business that makes a lot of money but yeah >> how do you think about this bubble talk that has been going on for the last few months especially?
10:33
>> Um, I mean I think it's quite possible.
10:36
I mean I think it's quite possible. I mean I think basic if you look at most other major infrastructure buildups in history you know whether it's railroads or um fiber for the internet you know in the com bubble um >> these things were all chasing something that ended up being fundamentally very valuable in most cases it ended up being even more valuable than the people who were kind of pushing the bubble thought
10:56
it was going to be but >> and in each in at least all these past cases um the infrastructure gets built out people take on too much debt and then you hit some blip whether it's some macroeconomic thing or maybe you just
11:09
have like a couple of years where the demand for the product doesn't quite materialize >> and then a lot of the companies end up going out of business and then the assets get distressed and then it's a great opportunity to go buy more. So I
11:16
So I think that that it's not it's obviously impossible to predict what will happen here.
11:22
Um there are compelling arguments for why AI could be an outlier and and um and basically just um you know if the models keep on growing in capability year-over-year and demand um keeps growing then maybe there is no collapse or some or something.
11:37
Um >> but I do think that there's definitely a possibility at least empirically based on past large infrastructure buildouts and how they led to bubbles that um that something like that would happen here.
11:51
Um >> he's going back and forth there.
11:54
Uh not as strong as what Sam said. >> Yeah.
11:58
Again, it's possible we're in a bubble is not the same as Yeah, we're definitely in a bubble. >> Yeah.
12:03
And the and and the right the post the whoever that is is right as well.
12:09
And that it's much better to be in the position where you have a highly profitable advertising business that can support this. >> Yep.
12:15
you know, the all of the AI capex could effectively never go to what we think of as like new gen AI products and it could just go to the core business and it'd be great. >> Yeah.
12:29
I mean, when we hear about Meta spending 60 billion on capex, like a lot of that is still core AI.
12:32
A lot of that is still just recommend better ads, recommend better reels, that type of stuff.
12:38
Uh and so lot less lot just tons more downside protection at a company like Meta versus XAI which is uh using leverage using these dealshifting pawns across >> having space and then SpaceX uh SpaceX employees and and and Tesla employees are coming over and uh Tesla mega pack battery packs are going over there like it is a crazy crazy kuratu that >> well speaking of wellplaced ads Tyler Rangi just shar shared uh this moment earlier. We got to pull this up.
13:10
Pull this video up in the timeline.
13:11
Uh uh Tyler clipped it for us.
13:14
John delivered potentially the greatest host red ad in history.
13:20
Um we're a little bit a little bit biased obviously. >> Time is money. Save both.
13:25
Use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one. >> Seconds on the count. >> Let's bring him on.
13:33
>> Mark Zuckerberg live on TVP.
13:36
>> Welcome to the stream. How you doing, Mark? Good to see you.
13:39
>> You're ready to have a party.
13:41
>> This is really just the the the pinnacle like truly like the the pinnacle of the bit that we started maybe a year ago, less than a year ago.
13:49
I mean, I guess what we started doing rampads, I think I think we started doing rampads even before we had to deal with them.
13:54
We just thought it was fun.
13:55
But this whole idea of like let's be overly commercial, let's really push the the ad reads.
14:00
It was it was started as a joke and then it just became like our thing and we normalized it to a point where where we can actually go and do an ad read a host red right before interviewing a mag 7 CEO.
14:12
So it was a fantastic uh fantastic day, fantastic week. We had a lot of fun.
14:17
Um anyway, continuing with uh what's going on with XAI.
14:20
Um there's this thoughtprovoking part of the latest semi analysis uh that article that uh kind of breaks down how Anie and the romantic companion chatbot actually flows.
14:36
We can read through a little bit of this.
14:38
Uh I mean Elon is extremely satisfied with how the buildout's going.
14:43
Sean analysis said XAI uh now has 460 megawatts of natural gas turbines installed and either operating or under construction.
14:51
This includes 12 SMT130 turbines at Colossus 1 and seven Titan 350 turbines at Mississippi.
14:56
Those are extremely cool names for turbines. Titan 350.
15:02
Uh, and Elon says still small fry at 1 gawatt.
15:05
For serious power in the 100 gawatt continuous range, 1/5if of USA average power consumption.
15:10
It probably needs to be solar battery powered at one terowatt.
15:14
Solar battery is the only realistic option.
15:16
Elon's Elon company companies are so good at infrastructure they should have bought the Fire Festival IP because they actually I believe they >> Oh, they could pull it off for sure.
15:27
>> They could have pulled it off on a on a barren island.
15:29
They would have been able to do it. >> Yeah.
15:31
>> Might not have been super >> well, you know, uh easy on the eyes, but it would it would have uh the festival would have run. >> Yeah, for sure.
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15:45
>> Uh semi analysis continues.
15:45
The location of XAI's AI data center hub in Memphis is highly strategic as it sits at the intersection of three states.
15:52
Tennessee residents are already frustrated with the environmental and noise concerns caused by the gas turbines powering the facility.
15:59
To address this, Elon Musk simply placed the new turbines a few miles across the border in Mississippi running a short transmission line back to the Tennessee hub.
16:07
It is so crazy that he can even build a line a couple miles like that.
16:12
Like how long does it take California to build a couple miles of railroad? like a decade.
16:16
The idea that you could actually like build a even a transmission line that quickly is remarkable.
16:22
>> I wonder I wonder if any crazy land deals got done like in that two-mile stretch, right?
16:27
Like because if he had to >> like do you think he owned all the land across state lines or was there some section where where >> But it gets Yeah, it gets more complex.
16:38
So, uh so uh and if Mississippi residents or regulators push back, well, no problem.
16:43
he can just go a few miles west, build additional turbine plants in Arkansas and connect them with another short transmission line.
16:51
Elon Musk has also confirmed that XAI is purchasing an overseas power plant to bring to the US to continue powering the his physical AI infrastructure. >> I think so.
17:05
I think just like pick it up and put it down.
17:07
Semi analysis called it another 200 IQ first principles move by Elon due to push back on the Tennessee from Tennessee over environmental concerns.
17:16
He built it at this intersection of three states and kind of can kind of move move between them.
17:20
Um there's some there's some really remarkable things this genius trick uh such a crazy move and and you and you have to think that he he didn't run into this like later he thought about this.
17:33
He thought that the state regulation it would be complex and so picked that zone maybe a year ago.
17:38
Um and has been you know a beneficiary of it ever since.
17:41
Uh such a such a fascinating uh story and you can see some some images from 200 uh megawws to 1. 1 gawatts.
17:49
Uh and you can see the physical change of the look at this the the physical change of the site from March 2025 to August 2025.
17:57
That's just a few months and it looks like a completely different like terraforming the earth. It's absolutely wild.
18:05
>> Grock right now, guess uh guess Grock's revenue on Sensor Tower, so the app store last month.
18:14
>> Um hund00 million, something like that >> last month.
18:20
>> I would hope that they're at a billion dollar run rate. Maybe less. >> Five million.
18:24
So $60 million run rate in the in the app store.
18:27
Granted, they could have other people go to grock.
18:28
com and sign up and that that those signups wouldn't get counted towards this. >> Yeah.
18:34
>> But this is counting >> and there's a lot of people in the United States Grock within Axe.
18:37
So they have an X premium account and that gets them that gets them access to Grock.
18:40
But yeah, I mean uh semi analysis shares a lot of data around uh the AI lab ARR external revenue. OpenAI is at a 14. 5 billion run rate.
18:51
Uh Anthropics at a 7 billion run rate now.
18:55
and Grock is not really showing up on this particular chart.
18:59
Um there's some discussion in here about Elon going to the Middle East.
19:04
Uh there's uh the KSA's Kingdom Holding Company. They own 16.
19:07
87% by the public by PIF public investment fund.
19:13
Uh they owned and kept a 1. 8 bill 1.
19:16
9 billion stake in Twitter when Musk took the company private in 20202 and also owned an $800 million stake in XAI prior to the merger.
19:24
So they they're building a position in XXAI.
19:25
Uh the UAE's privately owned VI Capital uh bought uh brought in 700 million in 2022 to support Elon's takeover of Twitter.
19:36
It also invested in the XAI series C alongside U uh UAE state fund MGX and Qar's uh QIA also owned and kept a $375 million stake in Twitter and participated in XAI's series C.
19:47
And so according to the Financial Times, XAI is preparing a new round in the tens of billions, valuing the company close to 200 billion with Saudi P.
19:58
>> CNBC broke that that has uh allegedly been closed. >> Yeah.
20:03
So semi analysis earlier this week was talking about a raise as large as 30 billion.
20:07
It sounded like 10 billion came in today.
20:08
And remember XAI's lawyer was on the record I think a couple days ago saying the idea that XAI is struggling with fundraising is entirely false. >> Yes.
20:21
That it was like they're good at fundraising, right?
20:24
>> They were performing well in fundraising is what they said.
20:26
Um but the reporter was pushing them and basically saying >> yeah I mean you you can give you can give these labs like a little bit of leeway because anthropic wasn't making a ton of money and then it when they hit product market fit on the actual model like it ramped very very quickly.
20:42
Same thing with open AI obviously >> 200 billion uh semi analysis says uh this is challenging because it is hard for most investors to justify XAI as having a valuation higher than anthropic.
20:54
That is that is tricky considering Anthropics at like a seven billion dollar run rate and growing very very quickly.
20:59
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21:19
Uh beyond external capital sources, Elon could generate capital internally since merging X with XAI to form X holdings.
21:28
Uh semi analysis believes there's an ever growing piece of XAI's revenue uh revenues are intercomp transfers.
21:32
So when you call Grock at Grock to trans at Grock is this true on X to answer questions uh X.
21:40
com is licensing that LLM technology for the functionality such as search ad and uh and even the even the recommendation algorithm Elon has said just today that he wants it to be entirely powered by XAI by artificial intelligence.
21:56
No, they wants to rip out the older system. Tyler.
22:00
>> And remember in July the Department of Defense awarded a $200 million contract to XAI.
22:06
>> Oh yeah, that's right. >> So that's >> Yeah. >> significant. >> Yeah. Uh is significant.
22:10
I mean you you add that you add the 60 million in sensor tower.
22:14
There's probably a bunch more coming just directly.
22:15
There's probably some coming over from >> But yeah, at the at the end >> you're like nine figures, but we're not seeing like the multi-billion dollar revenue.
22:24
You're a large scale allocator >> and you are having the opportunity to simultaneously invest in enthropic. Yep. >> Open AAI and XAI. >> Yep.
22:34
>> OpenAI at somewhere 350 to 500 billion.
22:38
>> Anthropic 160 or 170 whatever it is >> and then XAI at 200 billion.
22:41
It's like you really got to be riding with Elon ride baby.
22:48
Uh semi analysis says it's moving describes it as moving money from Elon's right pocket to his left pocket.
22:56
Uh this has happened a bunch though.
22:56
It happened with Solar City.
22:57
He acquired that company.
22:59
Uh and then we didn't really hear that much about solar from Tesla.
23:03
There was this vision for a while that you would buy a solar roof and get solar panels installed in your house through Tesla. that project.
23:09
It was slow and then it didn't really reach breakout speed.
23:14
But interesting to see how much like at this point it's been what a decade since you want to hold on to your puffer fish.
23:22
Are you very happy about that thing? It is so cool.
23:24
Um uh at at this point if Elon was really like uh had changed his tune on solar, he very much could have pivoted and said like now we're doing nuclear and we're not doing solar anymore and you know we're kind of slowly like the actual Solar City acquisition was never that big and it's been sort of like written down over the time.
23:47
No, no one's saying oh Tesla needs to deliver Solar City that the original vision there for that to happen.
23:53
yet Elon's still beating the drum of solar will be really important long term.
23:57
So I wonder >> a lot of people were not happy about the solar city acquisition. Yeah.
24:01
The >> bailout but over time it didn't matter because it didn't matter in the end.
24:04
And that's and that's why I've said I think I think if XAI eventually rolls into Tesla, >> I think that one Tesla will >> like probably pop on that news and over in the fullness of time like it it probably will not be >> um I think it'll be somewhat of a rounding air. >> Yeah.
24:24
Um it it would be interesting if it if it if it comes back and in another decade Tesla or Elon Inc.
24:30
is a major player in solar power generation.
24:33
They certainly aren't a material amount of total power generation.
24:39
They're getting into a material amount of total AI it capacity and uh and data center capacity.
24:46
Uh kind of bootstrapping a hyperscaler, becoming a hyperscaler just through the XAI efforts.
24:51
But it would be very interesting to see if we look back and we're like, oh, they actually did wind up installing a ton of solar.
24:56
They needed an excuse to do it, not just groundup adoption from everyday people putting it on the roof, but could happen.
25:05
Um, so, uh, semi- analysis asked the question, does XAI have a shot at becoming a frontier lab?
25:10
Uh, XAI has been able to catch up in many aspects to the current frontier.
25:14
Grock 4 by some measures and evaluations was up there with some of the best models on release.
25:20
Yet, semi analysis believes they're struggling to translate eval strength into revenue.
25:25
Let's discuss uh the the talent pool.
25:28
There's a funny there's a bunch of interesting things here.
25:30
So, XAI got uh folks from Google DeepMind, Greg Yang, and Tony Woo.
25:35
XAI also has renowned researchers like Jimmy Ba, co-inventor of the Atom optimizer.
25:40
Since then, XAI has poached more talent from DeepMind Meta and in some cases Nvidia, which is interesting because they're buying a ton of chips from Nvidia, but they did get some folks.
25:48
They got uh Ethan He who was a senior uh uh senior engineer at Nvidia working on their Nemo model series.
25:56
And my question is, is Ethan He him or is he just Ethan He?
25:58
Uh at this point, they have north of a thousand employees and are ex continuously expanding with a new office stated to open in Seattle.
26:10
Uh they work really hard.
26:12
Uh it's famously hardcore. I like this phrase here.
26:14
Part of this is the fast, extremely hardcore pace.
26:17
XA XAI engineers 996 look easy.
26:19
I think you're saying two XA 2 XAI engineers 996 looks easy.
26:26
Often pulling what they call >> saying 996 007 which is 12 to 12 7 days a week which I think is just 24 hours a day.
26:36
>> If you were doing 12 noon to 12 or >> well that's not that much more than 9 to 9 12 to 12. >> Yeah.
26:42
Like I think I think what they're saying here is that basically it's like you are 100% working even when you're sleeping like that's part of your job.
26:50
Like the sleeping in the tent is like you're doing that to enable your work.
26:54
So you you you live at the office and you truly are working endlessly.
26:56
Um but uh the talent exodus is a real issue with XAI.
27:01
Uh people are churning out but they keep finding young people uh to join and uh their two of their be uh two of their best data center folks just left to join open AI but Colossus 2 keeps chugging forward so they're able to backfill and they haven't been able to be uh you know fully destroyed.
27:19
There's an interesting >> Yeah, I mean there there's >> there's just there's a world where even if XAI ends up just leading on infrastructure and actually being able to deliver compute, >> there's a ton of value in that as well, right?
27:32
I I I we were talking offline the other day.
27:34
Is there some world where Oracle says like, hey, we have this crazy backlog.
27:38
We'll basically like if you give us access to Colossus, we'll pay you a premium for it. But >> who knows? >> Yeah.
27:48
Yeah, I mean there is a question of like it's super risky, there's debt, they're building out this massive cluster and there isn't that much demand from the actual uh API for Grock and there's not this crazy uh compounding advantage in consumer.
28:02
Uh but at the end of the day, if you wind up with a 1 gigawatt cluster, there's a lot of hyperscalers that want a one gigawatt cluster and so you could probably just go sell that to AWS or Google pretty quickly.
28:13
So it doesn't seem that crazy as in terms of like where the dollars are going.
28:18
It seems like an efficient buildout that creates capacity.
28:20
Um but then we're talking about like the dark fiber world where uh we couldn't find a a use for this today.
28:27
So we had to sell it kind of at cost or below cost. Um but it's not a zero.
28:31
It's not it's not it's not completely uh spent on on you know something that might not materialize at all.
28:37
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Uh, speaking of coding, coding is today the largest API use case for AI.
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Uh, Devon, of course, uses >> I can't get over the team >> AI to to write code. >> Cowbell and great.
29:03
>> Hit that horn again, Nick. >> I love the horn. It's great.
29:04
Uh, Grock 4 is priced at the same level of Claude Sonnet 4, yet does not show the same level of coding abilities.
29:12
For non-coding applications, GPT5 is even cheaper and has better capabilities across the board.
29:17
So, uh, both anthropic uh, Sonnet 3.
29:21
7 and Sonnet 4 are both at $4 per million tokens.
29:24
Uh, Grock 4 is also at uh,4 per million tokens, but very quickly uh, GPT5 is at $2 per million tokens.
29:34
million tokens. Grock code fast is much cheaper but um uh and and a lot of the explosion over Grock code fast has been on open router semi analysis dug into the open router stuff and it said that uh there's there is interest that in in
29:49
a small cheap and performant model but there's a catch uh semi analysis thinks that the spike on open router comes from XAI providing free voucher credits to kilo code users who call XAI models via open router real demand will be clearer in the long run as voucher redemptions run out. So, um they've been doing a lot
30:08
So, um they've been doing a lot to just spur adoption.
30:10
Hopefully, those folks stick around.
30:12
There was very there was one very interesting stat uh in here that they linked to.
30:17
So, a survey from Netscope found that Grock is used in 23% of organizations. This is up from like 0.
30:26
01% of adoption of Grock 2 in in enterprises that were surveyed.
30:31
So massive massive adoption of Grock in in companies broadly 23% is pretty pretty high actually but 29% of organizations have just blocked Grock entirely likely due to the Mecca incident and and and some of that stuff.
30:46
So um so it's uh unclear how Elon's influence over Grock will you know persist in poke in post-training quirks.
30:56
uh if you're just if you just want a model to uh optimize a a a manual workflow, you might not want it to take a strong stance on some political issue.
31:06
You might just wanted to put the tokens in the bag.
31:08
So, um on the consumer side, uh Chach is truly truly crushing uh the 30-day app revenue index to CHP at 100. Uh Grock is at 2.
31:21
6 relative to Chach's 100. So 2. 6% 6% of chat revenue.
31:24
Uh and then claude is at 1. 3% and Gemini is at. 5%.
31:31
And so according to semi analysis and sensor tower, >> it is pretty wild that the Mecca incident happened in the very beginning of July and they were still able to announce the DoD contract for 200 million in mid July.
31:46
>> Yeah, I mean those probably haven't happened in a long time. It takes time.
31:50
So um everyone discusses AI's weakness from model and lack of business perspective but it's important to recognize that they do have a unique method for RL reinforcement learning semi analysis is continuing so anthropics focused on code automated software engineering digital
32:04
productivity as a path to automate model research infrastructure improvements this is clearly the best path towards revenue in the short to medium term but XAI believes this is not a valid approach to AGI a more generalized approach is required says semi analysis while XAI is chasing code performance. They are also chasing other areas
32:21
They are also chasing other areas including emotional intelligence and empathy. ANI is key to this. This is interesting.
32:27
XAI's ANI is set to be one of the most diverse RL environments.
32:30
If the goal is to maximize engagement, then the model can attempt to maximize on that.
32:38
While their idea of utilizing humans as an RL environment is a crazy thing, it will be common place as AI evolves.
32:45
Once XAI implements RL on human environments, they could dramatically improve engagement and eventually turn on turn to other goals as well, becoming really good at slop is a potential path.
32:58
I think we were talking about this earlier.
32:59
It's a it's just a fascinating concept of like where uh where this goes.
33:04
It's a potentially very dark uh very black mirror uh very black pilling, but could be could be very cool.
33:09
uh creating R creating many RL environments makes spiky intelligence, but if humans are the ones to optimize against, perhaps it will be general.
33:18
It's debatable whether this leads to intelligent gains anytime soon.
33:22
But if the goal is to expand beyond engagement, it could lead to impressive advant advancements or it could just lead to a dystopian future where people are addicted to some anime girl they talk to, says Dylan Patel over at semi analysis. Uh it's a wild wild.
33:42
>> So uh the next section, the future of XAI.
33:44
In the next two to three years, XAI's compute footprint will be heavily weighted towards training.
33:48
Their inference demand is rising and will benefit the Neocloud market.
33:51
Uh but in the short term, it will pale in comparison to their multi-gawatt training expansion.
33:56
While that situation isn't viable from a financial perspective, we think XAI's integration into X will likely provide some cash cushion.
34:05
X is already integrating XAI technologies into its core advertising engine to increase monetization per user.
34:11
Uh again, you know that like X AI X Twitter has never been >> an incredible cash engine. >> Yeah.
34:21
>> Uh throughout its history, but it's but it's something uh semi analysis says, but to support its LLM training buildout, XAI will need to generate tens of billions of dollars of revenue and follow the path of anthropic and open AAI.
34:32
The core question is whether XAI's success would take market share from them or create net new spending.
34:35
Uh we think it'll be a mix of both.
34:38
XAI's ramp will enable Genai to reach a broader audience, but it also increases the financial weakness of the Genai market and the risk of market turndown as training still outspends inference >> um for precise breakdown of training inference capacity.
34:55
>> The data center industry model. >> Do it. >> Just upgrade. Pull the trigger.
35:01
Pull out the pull out the ramp card, put it down for the semi analysis, giga tier, >> pay the most.
35:07
Uh, and then hop over to figma. com.
35:09
Think bigger, build faster.
35:11
Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. Get started for free. >> Let's go.
35:17
>> And we have our first guest of the stream, our European correspondent, >> our UK correspondent. >> UK correspondent.
35:28
[Music] I love this stuff.
35:38
>> We actually should license that.
35:40
>> We definitely are going to get demonetized for that. >> Great to see you.
35:43
>> You know, it's my it's my favorite sound. I'm back in the studio.
35:45
Got the soundtrack going.
35:49
>> It's such a banger song. It really is.
35:52
Uh give us give us the weather report first. How was how was summer?
35:53
How was uh uh was it Wimbledon?
35:56
You went to some tennis event. What what did you do?
36:01
>> I had I had a tennis Yeah, I had a good tennis summer.
36:03
It was actually the US Open as well. >> US Open recently.
36:07
>> Is that the same as Wimbledon?
36:07
Are they Are they the same thing?
36:10
>> I mean, they're technically the same on like, you know, seniority, but I would say, you know, as a proud Brit that they are slightly different. >> Okay. Got it. Got it.
36:17
Uh and then and then take us through uh this week.
36:20
What what what why are we paying attention to Europe?
36:25
So I think you know the headline here I know that uh Jordi sort of said UK correspondent not U E European is that we've had this huge state visit this week from you know the White House delegation.
36:37
We also had a huge tech delegation come over which really sort of marks the first landmark second state visit that a US president has been given which President Trump likes to remind us lots of times.
36:50
So it's the first time that a US president hasn't been invited for a second ceremonial visit to to visit the royal family.
36:57
So you had the sort of pageantry of this big white house delegation to Windsor Castle.
37:02
Uh there was a big state banquet.
37:05
You had you know Jensen even taking off his black leather jacket and putting on his white tie which is you know one level up from black tie.
37:15
You know, we get very horses here.
37:18
>> I saw tons and tons of horses at >> there were a lot of horses. There was a lot of gold. We love gold as well.
37:25
>> So, so we really had one day which was you know a showcase of diplomacy and tradition and then you had a second day which was at checkers which is the UK prime minister's traditional sort of country home.
37:40
uh you know historical diplomacy is carried out there and the focus on that was not just you know UK trade and investment.
37:48
If you cast your mind back to May I think I was on the show we had the UK and the US come up with one of the first trade agreements which given the sort of the landscape of tariffs I think was a demonstration by the White House that they're really keen to make trade deals where they can.
38:03
So you had a continuation of that but the real focus this time was on tech and innovation across both uh energy and nuclear you had it across AI and quantum um and then also of course defense and and national security.
38:19
So that's why you not only had the delegation from the White House uh and a lot of, you know, key politicians, but you also had some of our our favorite tech CEOs from Silicon Valley making the trip over and and and putting on the white tie uh and also announcing a lot of investment.
38:36
>> Who were who were some of the the key names? Sam was there.
38:41
>> So Jensen >> Jensen Beni off, >> right?
38:44
>> But Palunteer and Roll as well. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
38:47
So, so I guess the main companies you had Microsoft, so you had Satia there, you had Google, uh you had Nvidia, also Jensen was was extremely bullish on the UK and we'll maybe come back to that because he's he's sort of announced a multi-layered investment in the UK over multiple years.
39:02
You also had, you know, Karp here from Palunteer.
39:08
Um you had Brian Shrimp Shrimp from Anderil.
39:10
Um and yes, Sam Olman from OpenAI.
39:13
OpenAI. So it was really you know and there are a few others as well across uh you know Blackstone and and and Black Rockck you also had a lot of the large uh big farmer and healthcare companies you know GSK for example Glaco Smith's Klein has announced that it's going to
39:28
be uh investing a lot into US R&D so it was really a big showing across you know major industries for investment on both sides of the Atlantic but there was a huge you know representation from Silicon Valley um and I mean just some of the numbers is are quite impressive. So, so Microsoft announced that it's
39:45
So, so Microsoft announced that it's going to put $30 billion into the UK over the next four years.
39:49
You had Google also committing around >> billion30 billion. >> So much. >> That's crazy.
39:58
>> You had Google announcing they're going to put $7 billion into a data center that they've already established.
40:04
>> Um, but the the real number here that was impressive were was Nvidia.
40:07
So, Jensen really wasn't just taking off the the black leather jacket for nothing.
40:13
He's uh put $670 billion into a UK cloud computing company uh called Nscale which is really designed to help AI um sort of the UK become an AI superpower >> as he called it.
40:26
So so that specifically is into uh to manufacturing and uh the infrastructure and then he's also potentially talking about putting $500 million into Wave uh which is the main autonomous vehicle uh company here in the UK.
40:42
I don't know if you've heard Alex Kendall on TVPN.
40:43
He's an amazing founder, you know, brilliant, brilliant UK founder.
40:48
So, >> so Jensen's really, I mean, he did a whole separate event where he met with Prime Minister Karma and really announced uh with a lot of enthusiasm uh such as the the Huang style that the UK is going to be a superpower. So, AI superpower.
41:06
H >> how should Americans be thinking about Kirst right now?
41:11
right now? like where does he fit in in the left right continuum or there's a lot of countries that have uh leaders who are leaning more Trumpian in their style or leaning more focused on innovation or uh leading leaning less
41:27
lawyerly more engineering focused like h how should people think about him who are who haven't uh do dove very deep >> yeah it's interesting so I think the first thing to know is that Kama came in on a landslide mandate similar to Trump earlier in the year. So sorry, earlier
41:41
So sorry, earlier in the year to Trump.
41:43
So in the same way that you had a new leadership come into the US at the end of last year and then the inauguration earlier this year, the UK had a similar thing happen about 6 months before.
41:53
So Kama came in, you know, his party, the Labour party had been >> in opposition for a very long time.
42:00
You'd had Boris Johnson and Conservatism for a long time.
42:02
So it was a real big landslide change for the UK.
42:04
So what that means is similarly to the white house currently the UK prime minister has a pretty large mandate for change.
42:15
So even though you know when I was sitting in in the US at the end of last year there was some trepidation around the fact that you know the party is traditionally more leftleaning it's called the Labor Party.
42:26
>> Um however um what you've actually seen is one a real ability to drive change.
42:33
So you know the number one thing is can you actually get legislation passed and number two and this was a sentiment echoed by quite a lot of tech CEOs yesterday was a real pragmatism to actually getting stuff done.
42:42
Now my personal view is that the UK after leaving the Europe European Union is now very much standing on its own.
42:50
It's been able to you know reassert its relationship with the US.
42:55
It's been able to carve out its own opinion on things like AI sovereignty.
42:59
Um, it can be sort of pro- AI.
43:02
It doesn't get held back by some of the anti- or I should say more risk averse uh EU legislation, >> more cookie. >> Yeah, exactly.
43:14
>> So even though traditionally you would you might think that the Labor Party is more left-leaning. >> Yeah.
43:20
>> In the UK everything is going to be slightly more central central as well.
43:24
It's you know it's just a smaller country. Yeah.
43:26
Um, and so I think that you you're not going to see as as extremes, but you know, what I've been really, you know, happy to hear from a lot of the the CEOs I've spoken with is that there's this pragmatism to to getting stuff done and and being, you know, a pro a pro business open for business leadership uh within Europe.
43:46
Um what uh I feel like I feel like this is a new thing where uh like the entire like America is going on tour.
43:54
Like we saw this in the Middle East where it was like all of the tech CEOs and all the government people from the United States show up and they're like we're all doing deals today and then you see the Trump uh >> it's a little competition. Who's biggest deal? >> Yeah.
44:09
And and at the dinner it's like Mark Zuckerberg throws out a number and then Tim Cooks throws out a number and it feels like it was the same thing this uh this weekend this week.
44:17
>> It was like that but with with Frillia outfits.
44:21
You know Tim Cook was also there.
44:21
I mean um I'm going to I'm going to tweet an interesting list afterwards.
44:25
But I highly recommend if you have some downtime just googling some of the images from from the last few days because they were really quite something. Yeah.
44:34
uh you know the pageantry is is quite impressive on the UK uh nobody does it.
44:40
>> What are does it like the royal family?
44:42
>> What are the top uh sort of like uh priorities just for the the British government right now in the US?
44:46
I mean there's a lot of focus on on tariffs, immigration, the overall economy.
44:50
The economy feels like uh running hot.
44:55
Everything's at all-time highs from gold to Bitcoin to the stock market.
44:57
At the same time, we're seeing weakness in the labor market.
45:00
Uh how are things feeling over in the UK broadly?
45:06
>> I think the UK's main focus is on growth.
45:08
There are definitely a lot of issues of course around immigration.
45:09
Um I think some of the you know highlighted issues on places like X have have kind of showed that there are a lot of >> uh I guess questions around immigration policy across Europe at the moment.
45:22
UK is definitely part of that.
45:25
Um I think you know from my perspective a lot of the focus is really trying to d drive a pro tech prog growth uh environment.
45:32
I think that traditionally a lot of the growth in the UK has come from the city.
45:40
So traditional you know big finance players it was a real hub for for financial services and I think that there's a recognition that the UK is actually if you look at it a really big hub for R&D.
45:49
You know you've had um you know Google DeepMind originated in the UK.
45:56
You've had a lot of advances in uh both synthetic bio and big pharma come out the UK.
46:01
You know hubs not just in London but you know real R&D centers like Oxford and Cambridge have have really been leading for a long time.
46:09
You've got the big semis company ARM based in the UK.
46:12
So in the last few years I think you've really seen uh governments on both sides of the aisle try and move away from like purely financial driven growth uh into uh you know tech and and R&D.
46:25
know tech and and R&D. So that's something that I think the White House and and 10 Downing Street are really aligned on and you know this is obviously was a big sort of PR uh campaign to also show that the the special relationship as we call it um goes both ways and uh and I think you know something that was significant a
46:42
lot of people have said to me okay what's in it for the US you know we're obviously investing a lot of money into the UK but I think that if you look at how the US thinks about exporting its own AI data stack across the world and you you put that against some of the competition with you know the Far East and and China. This was a really good
46:58
This was a really good opportunity for the US to kind of reassert its position as the dominant AI player and you know they signed a really interesting memorandum.
47:07
It was called the tech pro P prosperity deal. >> Lovely namesperity. >> Exactly.
47:16
which basically allows the US to align on you know how data models are built and and some of the kind of you know very core things that the US cares about in terms of you know ensuring that the data stack is defined by the US and not by someone else.
47:33
>> Take us through an update on the private markets in Europe broadly in the UK.
47:36
Uh who are folks focused on at the growth stage?
47:43
We were at the uh New York Stock Exchange. Was that last week?
47:45
I keep losing track of time, but CLA IPOed successfully. Stock trade.
47:52
>> How was how was the mood?
47:52
I mean, it was uh it's obviously continued to hold up pretty well.
47:56
Um >> yeah, the mood was good for it was it was our takeaway was kind of interesting with uh with the CEO is that uh it was just another day for him.
48:05
He didn't bring his family.
48:07
He just came, raised some money, got in, got out. >> It was a fundraiser. >> It was a fundraiser.
48:12
Whereas with Figma, it was this huge moment because a lot of folks in Brooklyn use Figma in Manhattan use Figma.
48:20
And so it's an American company.
48:22
They really focused on the story of Dylan.
48:24
Uh and with Sebastian over at Clarna, it was it was it wasn't as much of like everyone is a partner in this ecosystem.
48:32
Um but in general, it felt like a really good moment.
48:37
People had been waiting for Clara to go out for a long time and it was great to see them get out successfully.
48:41
But uh who else is driving this the the the the market or the news? >> Yeah.
48:46
Do you expect any type of spinouts from Deep Mind as well into like more like application layer companies or do you feel like the researchers there are just going to be content to you know >> double down?
48:58
So I think just on on that front um as well as you mentioned I think both Dylan and Sebastian amazing founders really >> exciting that we're seeing the IPO market off to off to a good start at the moment and you know I think >> although StubHub I think >> StubHub is down.
49:16
>> StubHub had a hard had a hard time >> from uh listing price yesterday. So >> it's okay. >> Okay.
49:21
Well, >> we'll get it all back in the next one.
49:25
But I think that you know in terms of names to watch here the big elephant in the room for a long time has been Revolute.
49:33
>> So for those not familiar in the US market, Revolute is really the largest fintech player here uh in the UK.
49:41
>> Um its last valuation I think was around $70 billion.
49:44
The last employee I think that was a secondary.
49:47
So that's really been the main question.
49:49
um some of the news stories around that have been around it, you know, banking license over the years and and whether they were going to, you know, go for an IPO.
49:58
I think that one, you know, continue to watch on and and if you look at Jensen's comments even on this trip, he's even said that, you know, Nvidia may also invest in in in Revolute.
50:10
So, I think Jensen is really he's really keen on the UK. We love we love Jensen.
50:17
>> He's pumping everything. It's great.
50:17
I think in terms of of Google Deep Mind, um I'm unclear if they're going to be, you know, spinouts, I think that uh you know, the UK government has always looked at Deep Mind as an example of UK companies that really should have been able to stay and prosper in the UK or within Europe.
50:38
And so I think that you're going to continue to see a lot of focus on you know UK's own AI infrastructure um the energy stack that's required for that.
50:48
So we also had quite a lot of announcements around nuclear um this week because of course the energy uh question is a big one for the UK.
50:56
Interestingly, actually, one of the other things the White House got out of this week's negotiations was that there is a commitment to the UK from being completely um unreliant on um on any any Russian nuclear um energy as well.
51:11
So I think that you know you're really seeing both the UK shore up its its energy stack um and I think a lot of that is to do with the fact that UK really wants to try and you know make itself um a great hub for for AI talent whether that be through Google Deep Mind or or some of the other really exciting companies like Wave. >> Yeah. Uh >> makes sense.
51:31
As extra context, in 2021, Demis Hibbus over at DeepMind co-founded Isomorphic Labs, which is a a spin out, but still uh I believe private and owned by Alphabet and Deep Mind and they're focused >> Yeah, I meant companies owned that type of >> And he's still based in the UK, which you know, the prime minister always likes to point out, but he's still working with with Satia, so with Google. Yeah. With >> Yeah.
52:00
Well, thank you so much for hopping on the show.
52:03
>> Always great to get that.
52:04
>> Always great to hang out with you.
52:05
>> Always fun to chat with you guys.
52:06
>> We'll talk to you soon, Pippa. >> Cheers. Bye.
52:09
>> Hopefully, we can have a new tennis tournament sometime soon.
52:10
So, Pepa comes back to the US.
52:13
Like, >> seems like that's what that's what gets her over here.
52:17
Should we talk about >> Vant automate compliance, manage risk, improve trust continuously?
52:20
Vantage trust management platform takes your manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation.
52:27
Whether you're pursuing your first framework or managing a complex program back in America, we should talk about this house in Malibu.
52:34
Johnny Carson's longtime Malibu home lists for $110 million. I've been to this house.
52:40
Uh an early investor in Jewel and a Hard Rock Cafe Aerys are selling the modern California house which the talk show I talk show icon owned until his death in 2005.
52:50
It's 10,000 square foot sixbedroom house on roughly 4 acres.
52:56
Uh, and we'll go through a little bit of this.
52:59
Uh, for more than 20 years, Johnny Carson lived in a modern triangular shaped home perched on a bluff >> over that. How did you know?
53:09
>> I've talked to you about this.
53:10
>> You told me that Johnny Carson lived on the bluff in Point D.
53:13
>> Yeah, I definitely told you this as we were driving by it together. >> Interesting.
53:17
>> Probably told you multiple times. >> Interesting. >> Who knows?
53:19
You might have been locked in.
53:20
You might have been locked in.
53:20
There might have been something more.
53:22
There might have been a a more pressing current thing to be monitoring.
53:25
You might have been monitoring situation. It's amazing.
53:28
Uh the property which has changed hands multiple times since his death has been redecorated and is going back on the market.
53:33
The price tag is more than double what the sellers paid for it in 2019. >> 40 million in 2019. >> I know. I know.
53:40
>> I I every time you look back at at things that you could buy before co it's painful. >> It really >> Yeah. It's crazy.
53:51
The fame talk show host bought the estate in 19 in the 1980s about a decade before ending his 30-year run helming the Tonight Show.
53:59
He owned the property at the time of his death in 2005.
54:01
The current owners are the venture capitalist Ray Volani, an early investor in the ecigarette maker Jewel and his wife Hardrack Cafe Aerys Augusta Tigret.
54:13
The couple paid 40 million uh in 2019 as you mentioned.
54:16
Look at Johnny Carson looking great in of course a Johnny Carson suit.
54:19
Fantastic interesting story about this.
54:22
Johnny Carson was so uh was so dominant in the culture.
54:26
I mean the the Tonight Show was one of just a few late night shows because we didn't have the proliferation of the internet.
54:32
There were only a few things that you could watch every night and he was absolutely dominant at the time.
54:37
>> How many how many viewers was he pulling nightly?
54:39
I >> I believe it was like tens of millions. It was it was massive.
54:42
I might have that wrong, but uh the interesting story was that he was so focused on his craft, he was not interested in business at all really.
54:50
And so he had a business partner who said, "Hey, you wear a suit every night.
54:56
We should get you a custom suit.
54:58
We'll start a a DTOC apparel company effectively uh Carson suits and uh and we'll sell those suits and then uh and then uh you'll be you'll be able to market them on the on the show."
55:09
but uh he didn't he didn't really care about contracts or understand business and so his >> you gota get you gotta get one of these.
55:18
You can find I have them on eBay right now 1970s Johnny Carson suit for $170.
55:24
>> You got to get one of those. That sounds amazing.
55:26
>> I got to get one of these.
55:26
>> I got to get one of these. but uh his business partner set up the set up the the the Carson suit enterprise and I don't believe he had equity in it and so uh he he would get free suits but he wasn't making any money off of it and for years Carson was not monetizing well at all but eventually he went back to and renegotiated his contract got ownership over the Tonight Show and was
55:50
one of the few uh late night hosts to actually own his own show have full control over it and Then after he died and retired, the Tonight Show, uh the catalog and there's merch and there's DVD sales and there's greatest hits, all of those would be uh would be sold and continue to generate revenue even though it was a daily show, but there were uh you know a lot of iconic comedy moments that happened on that show. So back to So back to the house.
56:16
Ri Riaz Veli and Tigret uh also have homes in London and Northern California.
56:20
They viewed this the estate as an investment property where they could entertain.
56:24
Uh, Tigret said they redecorated the two-bedroom main house and had plans drawn up to add two new houses and another pool, but didn't end up building them.
56:33
It is a remarkable property how large it is, and then it's just a two-bedroom um because but it has all these like massive open space as you can see in those images.
56:40
Uh, they are selling because they have decided to focus on real estate investments in Northern California.
56:45
It was designed by architect Ed Niles.
56:46
The main house is about 7,100 square feet.
56:49
Triangles appear throughout the house.
56:51
The dining room is a triangular shape as is the wood and glass >> as uh as is the wood and glass ceiling of the central atrium where uh mature trees are situated.
57:04
The estate also has a two-bedroom guest house, a tennis pavilion with two guest rooms and is said to have been a gift from uh from Carson to Carson from NBC.
57:13
Uh, Tigret said one of her favorite parts of the house is an outdoor dining area with a large round table where guests would congregate, violating the the triangle symbolism at the round table.
57:23
Uh, we had so many important business meetings there.
57:26
She said the area is naturally shaded thanks to a coral tree and a pepper tree whose branches grew together over time, creating a leafy canopy. And it is beautiful.
57:34
There's a massive there's a massive tree inside the house.
57:38
I don't know if you can see this in the images, but and the tennis court.
57:41
>> This view of the tennis court.
57:41
Crazy how big this tennis court is. It's wild.
57:44
Uh yeah, you can see that. That's insane. So insane.
57:48
Uh the property is among the largest in Point Doom with where standard lot sizes are roughly 1 acre.
57:54
This one is of course four acres.
57:54
Uh the main house >> the listing agent Chris Cortazo. >> Yeah. >> Friend of mine.
58:00
I I bought my house through through uh his firm. >> Oh, really? That's funny.
58:06
Uh the main house is situated closer to the bluff than houses that can be built today.
58:09
He noted the $110 million asking price is warranted by recent trades, he said, including a property that recently >> Yes.
58:16
There's a house right nearby this.
58:19
That's like a I think it's like a two or twobedroom house. >> Mhm.
58:24
>> That has similar views that sold for 80.
58:27
It's literally a shack that sold for for 80 down the road.
58:30
So, this makes uh that makes 110 for this spot look like an absolute bargain. >> It's great.
58:39
You know what else is a bargain? Graphite. dev.
58:40
Code review for the ai the age of AI.
58:42
Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster.
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You can get started for free.
58:50
Uh Road River Partners, I've never seen this account before. No profile picture.
58:55
Uh says in the late 1990s, a pal attended a dinner for tech hedge fund CIOS. >> All the top guys. >> All the top guys.
59:05
>> All the top guys were there.
59:06
>> All the top guys at the time.
59:06
$25,000 of wine was consumed and portfolios were shared.
59:11
My pal was sitting at 135% gain for the year and his performance was the worst in the room.
59:18
By far a week later, he'd gone he he'd went 100% cash.
59:21
He was the only one that survived the next three years. >> Pretty pretty crazy.
59:27
Uh you're looking around too much wine.
59:31
I'm I'm up 135% and I look like the idiot.
59:34
Uh, maybe it's time to get into the account here asking uh coward, Mr. Coward. >> Coward nut.
59:47
>> But why did he go 100% cash?
59:49
>> Because everyone else was up way more. Yes.
59:51
>> What What if he just like gave up?
59:51
He's like, I'm terrible at this selling to cash.
59:54
He's going to just like go distribute everything out and just quit.
59:58
And then and then he's just looking around like, wait, I'm the only one standing. >> Yeah, maybe. It's remarkable.
1:00:02
Uh well, >> no, I do know my my dad always told me a story about um one of his one of his college buddies just went 100% to uh 100% to gold like right right before the great financial crisis and and just like ended up just absolutely.
1:00:23
>> Well, whatever asset you want to invest in, go to public. com.
1:00:25
They got multi-asset investing.
1:00:27
It's it's investing for those who take it seriously.
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They got industry leading yield trusted by millions. You can lock in.
1:00:35
>> We're not allowed to give financial advice, but I think it's fair to ask you to take it seriously.
1:00:39
>> In other news, uh we interviewed a lot of fun people at the Meta Connect 2025 event.
1:00:44
The one that broke through on the internet, on Teapot, on Axe was of course our interview with chief wearables officer at Luxodica.
1:00:54
>> Roco Roco Basil Basilica. >> Roco Basilico.
1:00:57
Uh Mullen says, "I'm sorry. His name is what?
1:01:00
We live in a simulation, dog."
1:01:02
And uh this got 3,000 views.
1:01:05
There were there was another couple there were a couple other background on on >> Rocco uh 7. 4.
1:01:14
>> No relation to Rosco from the Rosco Chicken and Waffles chain >> that we know of, >> but we really enjoyed talking to him.
1:01:21
>> Also, no relation to Rothco, the artist. >> Oh, Mark Rothkco. Yes. I don't think so.
1:01:26
Uh people had a ton of fun with this.
1:01:28
Where was the other post in here?
1:01:28
Um someone else was saying something about um uh Richard says, "My name is Rocco's Bassilisk and I'm making artificial intelligence that you put on your body."
1:01:41
That one got >> So let's give some backstory.
1:01:42
Tyler, do you want to give some backstory on Rocco? >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:01:45
What is the joke that people are making here? Okay. Yes.
1:01:46
So his name basically sounds like Roko's basilisk. >> Yes.
1:01:51
um which is like this famous thought experiment experiment from less wrong in like early like 2010s I think. >> Yeah.
1:01:58
>> Um basically the idea is like okay so there's going to be some future super intelligent AI. >> Yep.
1:02:05
>> Um and like you can do this kind of like decision- making where it's kind of similar to like this prisoner's dilemma thing where there there's two agents. >> Yeah. Pascal's wager. What is Pascal?
1:02:16
We're where basically you can chart it out to where like the idea is um you have this this this super intelligent AI um by the time it gets to becoming like instantiated.
1:02:26
Um the idea is that it's going to like punish people that did not like accelerate it >> did not help it be born >> and and the idea is actually it's not just like >> if you didn't love me at my benchmarks you don't deserve me at my >> intelligence. Yes.
1:02:43
So it's basically like the the whole thing is like it's like an information hazard.
1:02:49
>> This like term um EAS actually banned like discussion of the topic less wrong for like 5 years.
1:02:54
>> Oh because it's a justification for accelerating super intelligence. >> Uh I think so.
1:02:59
But also >> you don't want to be the safety guy. >> Yeah.
1:03:02
But but the whole thing is like if you started out basically it only applies to you if you like learned about this idea.
1:03:08
So like if you knew about the idea of of then and you didn't like start accelerating AI then it's going to punish you. >> Yeah.
1:03:17
>> And this is why we covered MetaConnect and we covered >> uh isn't there some lore about Rocco's bassilisk and uh >> like the whole idea is like it's a bassilisk because like if you look >> a basilisk is that a snake? >> Yeah.
1:03:32
It's like in mythology if you look at the bassilisk in the eye then you like instantly die. >> Yeah.
1:03:37
So, it's like if you learn about this thing and you don't do anything, then you like will be punished by the the future AI.
1:03:43
>> Apparently, this is this is what uh this is what originally brought Elon B uh brought Elon Musk and Grimes together.
1:03:50
Uh Musk was going to tweet about RCOO's Basilisk, which is a reference to Rookco, the 18th century Baroque art style, and they bonded over that.
1:04:00
He discovered that Grimes had made the same joke three years earlier and reached out to her about it.
1:04:09
One can only speculate about >> very very interesting >> thought experiment.
1:04:14
Well, we should have we should have asked him about it because I wonder I wonder how aware he is.
1:04:19
It can't be the first time he's he's heard that his name sounds like Rocco's Basilisk, right? >> Yeah, I see that. >> Must be aware.
1:04:24
Uh well, >> he's tapped in.
1:04:28
I mean, the story of him just like cold emailing Zach like, "Hey, I think we should do some international business together."
1:04:34
>> Let's hop on a quick call. >> He made it happen.
1:04:37
>> I I wonder if Zuck knew about Netflix when he got that cuz then it's like you're getting an email from >> Vassilus asking if you want to help accelerate AI. >> Yeah. You have to say yes. >> You have to say yes.
1:04:46
Otherwise, you're going to be Yeah.
1:04:48
>> I think it's one of the most like underhyped like partnerships. >> Yeah.
1:04:53
>> Of the last few years, right?
1:04:53
It's so strategic for both sides.
1:04:55
gives Meta this incredible durable advantage to be able to innovate on the technology side and not on the design side.
1:05:04
>> And it gives Luxodica the ability to defend itself and actually thrive in a world where, you know, >> we were we were debating >> everybody is wearing smart glasses.
1:05:14
>> Yeah, we were debating.
1:05:15
>> I think that's that's actually the that's actually a thing, right?
1:05:16
It's like >> there's people that don't wear glasses today that may or may not be using smart glasses in a few years, but Zuck brought this up.
1:05:25
There's like one to two billion people in the world that wear glasses all the time and looking good.
1:05:32
>> I Yeah, I mean people were uh we we were we were debating with a few people about whether or not the uh meta AI glasses Oh, I just triggered it. It's talking now.
1:05:44
um whe whether whether you can immediately clock them, whether they look like tech nerd gear or whether they you they you can pass amongst normies, the unogmented as as someone who's just wearing Ray-B bands and and I was leaning in the camp of like if someone throws on Meta Ray-B bands and they do have the cameras on there but they're not recording, there's no light, you kind of don't notice.
1:06:05
But other people were saying, I don't know, like you you you can still see the camera lenses and it still reads as it's a little like tech nerdy.
1:06:16
But I think the best possible that's a specific frame though, like >> this is this is actually an Oakley frame with no uh with no uh sunglass in it. It's just eyeglasses.
1:06:27
Um but uh but but the the original Meta Ray-B bands, they do look exactly like Ray-B bands.
1:06:32
an iconic silhouette and something that people are very confident in wearing.
1:06:38
And I think even with the cameras on there, even though you can see them, uh people are much more willing to to throw them on when they go out and and yet you do you do face a little bit of like, oh, like you're like a tech nerd.
1:06:49
You're trying like the new thing.
1:06:50
Like it's not as it's I mean it's like carrying. >> Yeah.
1:06:54
But think of think of the billion plus people that just wear glasses because they need them to see.
1:06:58
They already wear glasses.
1:07:00
And then you say like, "Hey, do you want a small display in those?" >> Yes.
1:07:04
>> That can give you directions that you can use to play music.
1:07:07
>> Chunky frames are kind of in right now.
1:07:09
>> Messages come in on >> It's kind of a vibe.
1:07:10
And so I think I I I mean I agree it's it is it is an underrated partnership.
1:07:16
It's a great partnership.
1:07:17
Um, I uh I wonder I'm I'm I'm like dying to know what the uh the well, first off, like what Apple's response will be like because I feel like they they they could I'm imagining that they're going to be white for some reason.
1:07:37
I don't know why, but I just have like >> Well, I also think they can do the clear one like the old Max where you could see all the internals.
1:07:44
It was >> they've really moved away from that aesthetic.
1:07:46
But if they brought it back, >> it just feels like they haven't even done black AirPods, right?
1:07:50
Like the like the AirPods.
1:07:52
Maybe they could do the Beats line and use some of that.
1:07:53
Uh, >> by the way, apparently the new phone scratches like crazy.
1:07:58
>> I saw Yeah, I saw a picture of it cracking people. >> But, uh, yeah. What what what was it?
1:08:04
They went back to aluminum or something. Yeah. People don't like that. >> Titanium. It was a good run. >> I don't know. >> It's a good run.
1:08:10
>> I I think Well, you you already purchased it, so it's in the mail. >> Yeah.
1:08:14
This is This is bullish for Apple.
1:08:15
the fact that I'm not going to get it for more than like basically I'm going to get it in like three weeks. >> Yeah.
1:08:21
Well, >> they're selling >> Julius AI.
1:08:23
What analysis do you want to run?
1:08:25
Chat with your data and get expert level expert level insights in seconds. Go to Julius.
1:08:31
>> Let's pull up this video of Matthew. >> Matthew McC.
1:08:33
Matthew McConna says he wants a private LLM fed only with his books, notes, journals, and aspirations so he can ask it questions and get answers based solely on that information without any outside influence.
1:08:47
Now, like that's impossible, right?
1:08:50
Just because you need to do pre-training on something or other, right?
1:08:56
>> Uh yeah, I mean unless his books are like the length of like the internet. >> Yeah.
1:09:00
Uh, I don't think the model would be very good if you just train it on like five.
1:09:04
>> So, so really he's he's kind of saying like he wants something fine-tuned. >> Yeah.
1:09:08
I mean, it seems like he doesn't really understand how they're trained. >> Yeah.
1:09:12
>> But yeah, you could instantiate this, I guess, through fine-tuning it.
1:09:15
>> Let's play uh the Matthew McConnA clip and uh see what he has to say.
1:09:20
>> LLM >> where I can upload, hey, here's three books I've written.
1:09:27
Here's my other favorite books.
1:09:27
Here's my other favorite books. here's my favorite articles I've been cutting and pasting over the 10 years and log all that in >> and here's all my journals whatever the people I and log all that in so I can ask it questions based on that >> right >> and basically learn more about myself
1:09:43
right I stand on the political spectrum I'd like to >> know that's that's what I'm would like to do which is sort of a glorified word document >> but it still would hold a lot more information than just oh can you find this term I would be asking and it would be responding to me on things that I've forgotten along the way. Load it with
1:10:02
Load it with the information I'd like to load it with. >> Right. >> Yeah.
1:10:08
>> Maybe even like I'm saying in this in the words of belief in in the and the man I'm working to be and the man I want. Load it with that.
1:10:13
want. Load it with that. load it with my aspirational and then ask it and it's giving me answers going oh this is but before >> it's slowly learning about me through conversations then going oh I think based on conversation no I want the
1:10:29
answers based on >> you play the beginning of this again he uses some funny phrase what does he say at the beginning >> I am interested though >> in a private LLM >> private >> where I can upload hey here's three books I've written here's my other favorite. >> You can do this with articles. I've been
1:10:44
>> You can do this with articles. I've been cutting him.
1:10:47
>> You can do this with like 10 years a PDF. >> Log all that in.
1:10:50
That's what he keeps saying. Okay. Yeah.
1:10:52
I love that he says he wants to log it in.
1:10:53
No one's talking about logging data into your private LLM. Like this is the future.
1:11:01
>> No one's tried logging content into a private LLM.
1:11:04
>> This has like been possible for like three years.
1:11:06
Just embedding your >> embedding.
1:11:08
That doesn't sound like logging something in. That's what I want. I want to log it in.
1:11:12
I want to log in my favorite book.
1:11:15
I want to log in my favorite article. Log in the Holy Bible.
1:11:20
Sounds like that's what he's doing.
1:11:20
Uh >> he should he should hit up Salesforce for this.
1:11:24
He's he's >> with uh >> what do they have? Merlin AI or something. >> Well, he's close. He's one of the faces.
1:11:31
He's one of the faces and they have Einstein AI. He should fine-tune it.
1:11:35
fine-tuned it on my on my on Matthew McConnA mode that I mean Einstein AI I feel like uh you know missed opportunity to personify the AI much more should have gone you know Microsoft's going to have Clippy you know we're getting anie
1:11:50
from Axai every company is going to need their own personified AI and uh you know I'd be much more likely to use Salesforce's AI if I knew I was talking to to >> Matthew >> Matthew McConna >> uh in other who's Howard Lutnik is posting screenshots of his portfolio. Uh Uh >> Wait, really? >> No, I'm kidding. I mean, it's close.
1:12:12
Pull up pull up this next post.
1:12:14
>> It's a picture of uh from Trump on Truth Social uh of a of an AI slop of him sitting at his desk with bought intel at $20. Now it's $30. >> He's happy. >> The uh so happy.
1:12:26
Well, in other somewhat political news, Tik Tok sale announced by we're tracking this on Poly Market.
1:12:33
uh December 31st is now at a 79% chance that a a Tik Tok sale will be will be announced.
1:12:40
So, >> and Poly Market also got a um a market >> up on will Tesla acquire XAI in 2025.
1:12:52
>> So, the market will resolve to yes, it is officially announced that XAI will be has been or is being acquired or merged with Tesla.
1:12:59
>> I could see that happening.
1:12:59
I'm interested to keep track.
1:13:01
Uh, in other XAI news, Nikita Beer says, "The goal for your ex timeline is to get out of the mainstream algo and political crusades and find your niche.
1:13:11
You should be able to post about your interests and have friendly, relevant people chime in."
1:13:15
And I feel like I've been able to do this.
1:13:19
Like, you do have to be proactive about it still.
1:13:21
You have to say, "I'm not interested in this post."
1:13:24
You have to send a lot of likes and retweets to content that you actually like. Engage with it.
1:13:27
reply to people that you like in real life that you like in your niche.
1:13:32
But uh my my algorithm has been doing doing well and I'm hoping that they continue to improve it.
1:13:36
Elon says the algorithm will be purely AI by November with significant progress along the way.
1:13:43
We will open source the algorithm every two weeks or so.
1:13:44
I wonder how that like once it's purely AI, it's driven by just weights.
1:13:48
Are they going to open source the weights?
1:13:51
Open source open weights or fully open source the model? Like that sounds crazy.
1:13:55
What do you think, Tyler?
1:13:55
It's kind of unclear what I mean by AI, I assume he means like LLMs because like if if you just say like AI like it's kind of already done by AI.
1:14:05
>> Yeah, it would be very interesting to like open source the open source the the algorithm and the algorithm is just like recommendation.
1:14:11
next, you know, parenthesis like like inference the model is the is the Python code and it's like yep, we didn't change it.
1:14:20
It it still just goes >> crazy. Breaking news.
1:14:22
Trump is adding a $100,000 fee application fee for H1B visas in the latest crackdown.
1:14:32
>> In other breaking news, fall.
1:14:32
ai, the world's best generative image and video models all in one place.
1:14:37
Develop and fine-tune models with serverless GPUs and on demand clusters.
1:14:42
uh in the Wall Street Journal Tyler UAE >> uh project. I want to >> uh add tbp.
1:14:49
com/s sounds and it's the digital version of our soundboard that people can use in their meetings. >> I like that. Yeah, we got to do that. >> Given to me in a DM. >> Yeah.
1:15:00
>> Um and soundboard at home.
1:15:02
>> So, yeah, just try to wrap it up in the ne make it wrap it up in the next like 10 minutes and uh >> don't make mistakes.
1:15:08
Uh, the United Arab Emirates is buying houses in Washington DC.
1:15:13
Uh, they have a $200 million collection.
1:15:16
Now, the government's latest purchase is a $27.
1:15:18
5 million speck home in McClean, uh, Virginia.
1:15:21
I don't know if I'm actually saying that correctly.
1:15:25
Uh, this week it added a roughly 21,000 ft speck estate in Virginia, paying 27.
1:15:29
5 million in an offmarket deal.
1:15:33
The deal is the most expensive home sale to close in the capital region this year.
1:15:38
The UAE directly or through its employees or royals owns at least 21 properties in the area worth roughly $200 million.
1:15:44
The Emiradis have purchased so much real estate at such high prices in recent years that they've helped reset values in the Gold Coast region.
1:15:55
>> Let's give it up for resetting values.
1:15:58
According to real estate agents, uh the house was recently restaged to give it a modern minimalist look.
1:16:04
Each time they purchase something, it's a big number, says a real estate agent of Compass.
1:16:08
Uh the uh the estate is located near Langley where the CIA is based.
1:16:13
Uh the with a six-bedroom main house and a pool house, it was constructed as a speck home by Amar Homes, a luxury development firm headed by local dentist and entrepreneur Dr. Sonu Kakar.
1:16:24
Kakar said he bought the land for 2.
1:16:27
1 million, started construction uh in 2022.
1:16:29
It took him four years to start construction, completed the house four years uh two years later.
1:16:36
So, he's selling this big house.
1:16:38
It was first listed for 299.
1:16:38
Came down a bit, but they got the deal done.
1:16:43
Um there's a marketing video feature showing a motorcade of Cadillac Escalades resembling a diplomatic entourage heading up a winding driveway to the newly built modern mansion. Check this out. They made a hype video.
1:16:56
>> They made a hype video.
1:16:56
A startup launch video for their house. It's funny.
1:16:58
It's like they knew who they were selling this to.
1:17:01
They're like, "We got this house and we're going to show a bunch of >> a home video."
1:17:07
>> Wait, did you guys scroll that that fast? It plays it that fast.
1:17:10
>> No, that's in the video. >> That's in the video. That's baked in.
1:17:13
They're doing hype videos for sure.
1:17:15
That's a vibe reel if I ever saw one.
1:17:17
Uh, the UAE's residences are dotted in large clumps across the Capitol region, typically on prime waterfront lots.
1:17:21
Uh on Crest Lane, the county, the country owns several homes on the Bank of the PTOAC where that's where the ambassador's official residence and guest house are located.
1:17:31
Well, you got to go uh hang out in DC, do deals, and so you got to have some big houses for your folks to come and hang out at.
1:17:37
Uh on Chainbridge Road, one of the area's most upscale neighborhoods, the Emirates paid just under 43 million uh in 2020 for a riverfront estate previously owned by AOL co-founder Jame James Kimy in Uh the same year the country purchased a vacant lot nearby for 20 million.
1:17:58
>> Are they actually just buying these on the balance sheet? >> I think so.
1:18:00
I think they got cash to to spend uh and they want to come visit.
1:18:04
When they want to come visit, they want to have a nice nice place to entertain, host host guests, do deals, all the above.
1:18:11
If you're uh if you're if you're a startup, you got a couple hundred million dollars burning a hole in your pocket, you're doing deals in DC, pick up a $23 million mansion. >> Yeah, why not?
1:18:20
Uh Mark Zuckerberg did earlier this year.
1:18:22
Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg and his wife Priscilla Chan purchased a $23 million mansion in Washington DC.
1:18:28
Of course that is uh much smaller than what the what the Emirat have been picking up.
1:18:35
>> But regardless, you got to get your brand mentioned in SHA GBT.
1:18:36
Go to profound reach millions of customers who are using AI to discover new products and brands.
1:18:43
Uh TJ Parker has >> Yeah, that's a good post.
1:18:45
The bold case for Apple and AI is they're going to completely avoid enormous amounts of capex spend, get most of the consumer value from intelligently integrating Gemini, and get paid a boatload of money from Google for doing so. And uh I agree.
1:19:00
I think uh I do think it is frustrating as a user that Apple has moved slowly and somewhat ineffectively on AI, but I don't think they're in a bad spot from a business standpoint. >> No. No.
1:19:14
Nothing's gotten me to consider moving off of Apple.
1:19:16
Like even if iPhone Air doesn't have the right battery life or iPhone Pro, you know, cracks or whatever, if I need a case on it, it's like I'll I'll solve all of that.
1:19:26
like I'll I'll solve all of that. I'm sticking with >> and that's a big question with um the big question with uh the meta the new meta displays is is there a world where because right now when we demo the displays you can get an Instagram DM you can get a WhatsApp message and it will
1:19:44
pop up in your display nice little notification >> but the question is will they be able to figure out a deal with with Apple so you can get iMessage piped into there >> so yesterday Metacon continued and they did talk about the developer for kit, the SDK, how developers can integrate, and they had a couple of integrations. They did one with Twitch, so you can
1:20:03
They did one with Twitch, so you can live stream from the from the the devices um from the Meta Ray-B band displays.
1:20:10
They did one with uh Streamlabs and Disney, and there were a few others.
1:20:15
Um they're still pretty niche, and they're all partnered with like pretty big big companies, the type of companies that would do um like pretty big press junkets for these. Um, but some cool demos.
1:20:27
I I thought that they were interesting.
1:20:29
I'm very interested in the Twitch demo.
1:20:31
Obviously, we live stream on Twitch.
1:20:33
Thank you to Bobby Cosmic in the Twitch chat holding it down. >> Holding it down.
1:20:36
>> Um, but uh it it seemed like the live streaming capability, which we didn't expect to launch very quickly, is going to launch. It is going to be live.
1:20:44
You are going to be able to live stream from the glasses, but the the amount of time that you can actually spend live streaming is pretty short.
1:20:52
Uh it didn't seem like something where you could be streaming for hours.
1:20:56
Uh it was probably minutes.
1:20:58
There were different timers that popped up when I was looking at the video kind of showing um okay, you know, if you keep if you keep streaming at this at this scale, it's going to the the the chips are going to be on fire.
1:21:10
You're going to run out of battery life pretty quickly.
1:21:11
Um and so like there might be all day battery life, but that's more like all day battery life for the occasional picture and the occasional meta LLM query, not all day battery life stream your entire life.
1:21:22
like you you were mentioning that the the AI mode was maybe an hour max.
1:21:26
>> Live AI >> live AI was maybe an hour max.
1:21:27
There's lots lot >> using it to translate you know real time >> and I think it's also taking pictures of what you're seeing while it's doing that for the actual uh for the extra context there.
1:21:38
>> Um anyway whatever if you're planning to build a product that integrates with Meta AI display glasses you got to get on linear.
1:21:45
Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products. It's a double kill.
1:21:49
You can plan and build the products, meet the system for modern software development, streamline issues, projects, and product road mapaps.
1:21:56
Um, Jeremy GeFon has a post.
1:22:00
Wouldn't be surprised if this was printed in the legacy media soon, but we're seeing it on wrote it by hand, wrote some drafts out >> on a piece of paper and then transferred it and had maybe a member of his team, one of his guys actually post it for >> So he says the chief of staff is overrated.
1:22:19
We need we need more confidants, eminence, gri grizzies.
1:22:21
I don't know what that is. >> Visers, ptorians.
1:22:26
There is a failance of different guys you can have at your side.
1:22:30
You don't need to copy the president.
1:22:32
Consider the king or the priest or the emperor instead. >> Banger.
1:22:37
>> Uh it must have the title grand in front.
1:22:39
I think we got to get I mean we do we do this a new title.
1:22:43
>> He needs to be a confidant or a a grand vazier.
1:22:46
Yes, >> I think a vazier is a good is a good title.
1:22:49
Uh I mean >> our first hire was a vice president.
1:22:52
>> Our first hire was a vice president. We have a wheelman.
1:22:54
We have a VP of logistics. Yep.
1:22:56
>> We have a few other folks. A CIO of course. Yep.
1:22:59
>> Chief intern officer Tyler Cosgrove over there holding it down.
1:23:02
>> Y >> breaking it down.
1:23:03
>> Jim Kramer says that 30-year Treasury better start behaving. >> That is order.
1:23:10
He also posted posted a a picture of him hugging uh Tim Cook >> saying uh own it, don't trade it. >> I love this.
1:23:21
He said this 10 years ago.
1:23:23
We reacted to his his interview with Tim Cook on Squawkbox or on on Mad Money a decade ago.
1:23:28
Uh the stock had sold off.
1:23:31
They' they'd hit earnings. They beat earnings.
1:23:33
They generated something like 10 billion in free cash flow, but it wasn't enough for the for the for for the street.
1:23:39
And so, uh, Kramer did a very interesting interview with Tim Cook where he explains that he is excited about the company.
1:23:46
He personally is bullish on the company, but he has to get, uh, he has to get the story straight for what the street is saying.
1:23:53
And the Wall Street traders were saying, um, Apple, will this company go the way of HP or Compact or IBM?
1:23:59
Like, have they reached stagnation?
1:24:02
And Tim Cook says, "No, we're going to keep growing.
1:24:05
We're going to keep compounding."
1:24:07
you don't even know how much revenue we're going to make off of the app store.
1:24:11
And he kind of teases se he he says, "Hey, services are going to be big.
1:24:16
The iPhone's still going to be very big." And he was 100% right.
1:24:21
>> Got a great toll road going. >> Um based 16 Z.
1:24:25
>> Speaking of toll roads, the tax is a toll road on your business.
1:24:27
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1:24:31
Put your sales tax on autopilot. Right.
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1:24:38
>> And we have Sam from Numeral, the CEO, joining in just a little bit. Looking forward to that.
1:24:43
Uh Bay 16Z just shared a screenshot of CNBC.
1:24:45
They said New York will soon send its >> quote first ever inflation refund check checks to taxpayers.
1:24:54
>> Is this the state or the city? >> New York.
1:24:56
The state of New York will be giving you a refund for inflation.
1:25:00
They're they're they're paying back. >> Concerning. Concerning.
1:25:04
>> Well, um >> we'll see >> what else we got here.
1:25:07
>> Uh there's news about OpenAI.
1:25:07
OpenAI has approached uh Gore, which assembles AirPods, HomePods, and Apple Watches to supply components such as speaker modules for OpenAI's future products.
1:25:18
One of the products OpenAI has talked to suppliers about making uh resembles a smart speaker without a display.
1:25:25
The people said, uh would you carry this with you?
1:25:29
Would you have this in your home?
1:25:30
Um, OpenAI has also considered building glasses, a digital voice recorder, and a wearable pin, uh, and is targeting late 2026 or early 2027 for the release of its first devices.
1:25:41
Um, digital voice recorder.
1:25:43
I you know who you know who really convinced me who was really convincing at the Meta Connect event uh was it uh the the VP of wearables.
1:25:54
He was saying he believes in in kind of Lindy form factors. You wear a watches. He had a garment on. You wear glasses.
1:26:02
It's People don't wear a lot of pins.
1:26:05
>> Maybe if you're the hand of the king, you wear a pin.
1:26:08
>> Uh maybe a crown, a cane, a smart cane is an interesting idea.
1:26:12
But uh it it does seem like it's harder to get people to wear. >> Yeah.
1:26:17
So, it's interesting that open open AI is saying we're going to do a speaker or at least that's, you know, reading between the lines.
1:26:23
That's what they uh would would do here.
1:26:24
But Apple is remember they're building the smart lamp. >> Yep.
1:26:30
>> For your >> Are they >> Well, this this was teased by it. It's not really that. It's an iPod.
1:26:35
It's an iPad on a robotic arm that can follow you around the room in the kitchen. >> I know.
1:26:41
I mean, I just meant more of a Pixar lamp.
1:26:43
>> It does feel Pixar lampesque, and I'm actually very excited about that product.
1:26:46
I think it'll be very cool.
1:26:46
Um, but maybe they should uh there was a post uh a couple years ago a couple days ago from someone saying like Apple should lean into uh they should make a just an actual lamp.
1:26:56
You don't need to throw crazy AI.
1:26:58
It doesn't need to be iPhone level internals.
1:27:00
Just apply your design uh skills to industrial design all over the home.
1:27:07
>> We've asked we've asked for this stuff the TV. >> The TV.
1:27:09
But it's not going to happen.
1:27:11
It's not going to happen unless you have the full flywheel of you can take a cut of everything that happens on that device.
1:27:17
The you have an app store, you have all the downstream stuff, you have a a solid replacement cycle.
1:27:20
When was the last time you upgraded your TV?
1:27:24
Happens like once every 5 years, 10 years.
1:27:26
Uh and yet people upgrade their phones, they lose their AirPods, they get new AirPods, they get the latest iPad, iPad.
1:27:31
Apple made it a battery powered TV and you'd be forced to replace your TV every >> I think you're talking about the Apple Vision Pro which is the the the vision for you know where where that goes.
1:27:41
Um well speaking of Hollywood visions near uh is shouting out Alibaba's character swap via Juan 2.
1:27:50
2 animate very impressive and free and open source.
1:27:53
Uh by the way this lets you insert yourself as the main character or anyone. Here we go. >> Let's play it. Mr.
1:28:00
Sorcin, you are 5 minutes late.
1:28:03
Is there a reason why I should let you in?
1:28:08
>> I look, I'm just trying to ditch the cops, okay?
1:28:09
I I don't really care if you let me in or not.
1:28:12
>> This is going to be pretty viral. >> Mr.
1:28:13
Spectre will be right with you.
1:28:15
>> This is going to definitely launch some startup videos.
1:28:17
>> Can't get you anything.
1:28:18
>> Someone's going to use this to do a startup launch video very soon. >> Pretty cool. Swapping yourself in.
1:28:23
It really It really does it flawlessly. >> Remarkable. Look at that. I'm a fan. >> I have to know. >> Yeah.
1:28:37
Another tool in the toolkit for for video creators. >> Uh much like Finn. ai.
1:28:42
The number one AI agent for customer service, number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive bake offs, number one ranking on G2.
1:28:48
Uh we have another it's the mansion section today.
1:28:52
It's Friday in the Wall Street Journal. >> Another one.
1:28:55
Carara Ross, the ex-wife of billionaire Steven Ross, who created related properties, the man who created the strip mall.
1:29:02
Essentially, he uh she is putting her New York home on the market.
1:29:06
>> The gem gemologist and jewelry designer bought the Lennox Hill Co-op around the same time she filed for divorce from the Miami Dolphins owner Cara. >> 1.
1:29:15
75 million, she's asking. Uh she bought it for 5.
1:29:18
6 million in 2021, around the same time she filed for divorce.
1:29:22
Um, she tapped the laotted designers Tony Ingra and Randy Kemper who worked on the couple's for former home in Columbus Circle to reconfigure and redesign the apartment.
1:29:30
The apartment is is 2500 square ft, has two bedrooms and a large terrace.
1:29:35
The terrace is 2,000 square ft.
1:29:37
So, uh, she referred to it as a diamond in the rough, of course, a play on words because she is a jewelry.
1:29:45
Yeah, she is a jewelry designer.
1:29:47
Uh they've been worn, her designs have been worn by the likes of former first lady Michelle Obama.
1:29:52
And so if you're looking to pick pick up something in Manhattan, give her a call.
1:29:58
Uh it was a classic old apartment with hallways and drop ceilings and beams and all in and beams in all the wrong places.
1:30:03
They focused on opening up the layout so that the terrace is visible from the entrance to the apartment, even removing one of the three bedrooms.
1:30:09
Now the expansive living area has a backlit Onyx bar that can change color to fit the mood.
1:30:15
They've really got to uh swap out the current furniture and just redo the interior because this place is not >> It doesn't look homey.
1:30:23
It doesn't look like you could just hang out here and crash.
1:30:28
>> Um in a short time that she's lived there, Cara says she's hosted several events, including her daughter's engagement party.
1:30:33
I love to have friends and family over to create a nice environment for them.
1:30:36
Uh the co-op market has been soft in re in recent years.
1:30:40
Um, but listing agent expect to see demand for this property because it is newly renovated.
1:30:45
Apartments like that sell for a premium because time is money.
1:30:48
Homes that require renovation are still trading at a discount.
1:30:51
Uh, in in 2022, Steven Ross sold the couple's former condo near Columbus Circle for about 40 million, a significant discount from its original $75 million price tag.
1:31:04
That building was completed in the early 2000s by a partnership that included related.
1:31:08
Uh so he used his own firm.
1:31:08
Uh Stephen who acquired the Dolphins around 2009 has since launched a new company focused on development in West Palm Beach which is very very popular.
1:31:16
And if you're looking to um grow your business, get on Adio Customer Relationship Magic.
1:31:24
Adio is the AI native CRM that builds, scales, and grows your company to the next level.
1:31:27
Ben Lang has a good >> $25 purchase.
1:31:31
A Bluetooth device to connect AirPods on any plane.
1:31:35
>> A couple people post about this.
1:31:35
This uh I put this in here not for this use case but to bring up this sort of funny state of the world where every single >> like hospitalityesque business just like adopted USB. >> Yes.
1:31:53
At the worst possible >> now everything is USBC.
1:31:54
So >> I was on a uh >> uh plane the other week.
1:32:01
They had a US uh um >> USBA >> USBA.
1:32:08
Um it was a charter that I got through Preston Holland Preston Holland.
1:32:13
>> Um and I was just like the the plane had been refurbished in like 2020 >> and it still had USBA.
1:32:19
I was like what's going on here?
1:32:21
And then we were at a hotel for Metaconnect >> the other day and it's like great.
1:32:27
I'm glad I have USBA charging here next to the >> and it seems like you could create a business just like going around to like a lot of these different types of of companies that have installed USBA and just be like look like this is not a real this is no longer an amenity.
1:32:42
In fact, it's a frustration because I check into a hotel room and I'm like great.
1:32:45
I I I'm glad I could charge a USBA device here. Thank you for this.
1:32:53
Hopefully USBC is the the final the final format.
1:32:56
Although you know that there are like 12 different standards for what goes in a USBC cable. >> So USBC is the shape.
1:33:07
>> It's not actually the data transfer.
1:33:07
And so >> the final shape I just wanted which is fine but there are slow USBC ports.
1:33:14
There are fast USBC ports.
1:33:14
There's Thunderbolt 4, which is a faster uh faster protocol that goes over USBC.
1:33:19
Uh it's all a mess, but >> well, we have an iPhone review from Joanna Stern.
1:33:26
Let's pull up this video.
1:33:28
I thought this was important for the audience to see.
1:33:32
>> So, she has a new iPhone.
1:33:33
>> This is the new iPhone. This is the Air. >> This is the Air.
1:33:36
>> The Air had had round edges. It has sharp edges.
1:33:41
>> That looks like the Air to me.
1:33:42
>> She's cutting cheese with it.
1:33:43
>> She's cutting the cheese.
1:33:43
She has a little viral sense going.
1:33:44
She of course is the tech reviewer over at the Wall Street Journal. >> Fantastic.
1:33:50
>> Well, without further ado, we should bring on our second guest and our first inerson guest. >> Let's go.
1:33:56
>> Aaron, >> welcome to the show. >> How you doing, Aaron? >> To the show.
1:34:03
>> Announced his series A today. Great to see you. >> Congratulations. Good to see you.
1:34:07
>> Welcome to the Ultradome. >> Welcome. >> You got a mic here. Keep it close. >> Hello. Introduce yourself. How's it going?
1:34:15
>> Erin Slov, CEO, Atomic Industries.
1:34:18
>> Very, very few people have sat here at this table with us.
1:34:22
>> I thought this was appropriate, right?
1:34:22
I mean, >> yeah, it's great.
1:34:24
>> You got a round to announce.
1:34:26
>> What's the news today?
1:34:27
>> Well, the first news is I got some merch here. >> Let's see it.
1:34:31
>> The first first of kind merch and uh you can wear some of the shirts. >> Wild colors. >> I'm going with brown.
1:34:37
Brown is the most underrated color on Earth. We got a clay. We got a good clay. >> Oh, a clay. Love it. Nice. Here we go. >> Industries. >> Very, very cool.
1:34:47
>> Well, uh >> the inspo for these. >> Yeah.
1:34:50
>> So, these are obviously not like our official logo.
1:34:52
Um and I have uh I'm going to have to airdrop you some hoodies, I guess, too. But >> do it.
1:34:58
>> Uh I had a great guy on Instagram who basically takes corporate logos and, you know, vintageifies them.
1:35:03
And uh >> yeah, so special special edition. >> 2019. It's overnight success. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
1:35:11
We actually met in Pasadena.
1:35:11
We got coffee uh probably 2021, something like that. >> Yeah. >> He broke it all down. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:35:20
>> Absolutely brutal to start an American dynamis dynamism business like four years before the word was >> Yeah, for sure.
1:35:26
>> The trend was created. >> Yeah. Uh yeah.
1:35:27
Uh break down the news today. >> All right.
1:35:30
So, Series A, >> you can hold this while I do it.
1:35:34
>> Um Oh, by uh so we have um >> a lot of gong hits.
1:35:38
Yeah, a lot of gong hits.
1:35:40
Uh, >> we've put that through its paces.
1:35:42
>> So, this is kind of uh, you know, a bunch of great market validation.
1:35:45
We're going to dump this into R&D.
1:35:47
Um, a little bit of like expansion on the footprint.
1:35:51
And, >> um, actually, if you want, um, instead of doing like a fancy render, I can actually, uh, show you guys a little clip of the new factory. Let's do it.
1:36:00
We have a video pulled up. >> Let's pull it up.
1:36:05
Wait, this is in Detroit. This is in Detroit. >> Making Detroit. Bring it to Detroit. Sign a lease.
1:36:13
>> This is Wow, that's a huge >> make a lot of things in that.
1:36:17
>> Yeah, it's a lot of uh We're going to keep the floor dirt like that.
1:36:20
>> We had you we we had you call in and you were walking around the the previous facility. It didn't look small.
1:36:23
Um what what goes on the floor?
1:36:26
Are you like at the point where you're like copy pasting the same work cell over and over again? >> Not quite yet.
1:36:32
But you know the idea behind what we're doing is we started kind of uh software first right to kind of prove the concept that we could actually >> uh design something in you know at the same clip that like a trade expert could. So we did that first.
1:36:46
That was enough proof to actually get the first factory off the ground.
1:36:50
Um and then the design software started you know saturating into the molds that we would make right like at that factory.
1:36:56
Now we're kind of moving into the actual production of parts.
1:37:00
So, this facility, we're going to basically have factory one and two.
1:37:04
That's the the footprint that we're using. Yeah.
1:37:06
Um, factory one makes the molds.
1:37:08
We ship it to factory two to actually make the parts.
1:37:10
So, that facility will just be nothing but part making.
1:37:15
>> What's the wheelhouse part that you make?
1:37:17
What What's the canonical example? >> Name all name part. >> Yeah. Name every part. >> Every part. >> You make parts. Name every part.
1:37:24
>> We got a lot of parts here. Um, yeah.
1:37:24
I mean, basically what we're doing is trying to focus on >> taking like specialist shop knowledge, right?
1:37:34
Like you would go to a shop that's really good at doing like automotive parts or aerospace parts and generalizing that same capability like across the board.
1:37:41
>> So our envelope or constraint is kind of like size instead of industry or part.
1:37:46
So >> we can't do something like the size of the table obviously, but uh we can work up to that, you know.
1:37:51
So, for now, we're kind of like parts that are a couple shoe boxes or smaller.
1:37:56
Like, >> what was the thesis for your pitch to have every person who works in manufacturing wear a pair of meta glasses and start collecting data?
1:38:04
Like, how would that actually flow through?
1:38:08
>> So, I started a lot of my earlier career in like self-driving cars, right?
1:38:10
Um, I worked at Google 15 years ago doing this. It's actually insane.
1:38:14
Um, I don't even like thinking about that.
1:38:19
>> Were you like 15 years old? >> Yeah, I was I was 10. was wondering.
1:38:20
Um, and >> you know, a lot of a lot of the kind of like idea behind that is controlling a system well enough, right?
1:38:29
Like a human would control a car.
1:38:32
>> Same principles kind of apply to a factory, right?
1:38:33
Um, if you're producing the same thing over and over again, you can dial a factory like Elon does, right?
1:38:39
And it's just like ultra efficient.
1:38:40
Um, the holy grail is being able to take a factory and kind of adapt to different things, you know, over and over again.
1:38:46
And mold making is kind of like that because every part has a unique geometry.
1:38:51
So ultimately the shape drives like the construction of every mold and it's a little bit different, right?
1:38:58
But um yeah, ultimately that >> Yeah.
1:39:02
I mean actually pulling data from someone who's working on a line.
1:39:04
I mean, they're going to see you're going to see someone using a screwdriver one day and then a hammer and then different tools and then pushing buttons and maybe sitting in front of their computer like taking notes.
1:39:15
Like, uh, isn't that just like a ton of messy data?
1:39:18
Like, how do you actually compress that into something that's actionable?
1:39:21
>> So, the self-driving analogy is very similar to that, right?
1:39:24
Like, um, being able to actually >> intuit it, uh, like a mechanical task, right?
1:39:31
Or >> I don't know, anything like programming a machine or something like that, right?
1:39:36
um if we have the ability to actually collect the data seamlessly and relatively easily.
1:39:40
Uh that's kind of a floodgate, you know, to being able to do a lot of these things, processing them is a different problem um depending on how general they get.
1:39:48
But I do think that that's actually a pretty >> interesting use case for them. >> Yeah.
1:39:54
Uh give us the update on uh reindustrialization broadly.
1:39:56
reindustrialization broadly. Uh >> there's been some headlines on the job side this year that have been not super uh thrilling to look at actually reduction in in uh manufacturing workforce but what's actually >> yeah a lot of energy in the >> what's the vibe what's the vibe like on
1:40:13
the ground >> the vibe on the ground >> actually and and to be clear I I want to get a sense of like what the vibe is like legacy manufacturing and then like the the re-industrialized crowd >> no way you got to take that >> I can't I can't do that right now take Yeah, take it right. >> He'll call back. He'll call back. >> He'll call back. He'll call back.
1:40:31
>> That's actually I mean I don't know if you're with us, but >> yeah, I don't know if you're messing with us, but that's fine. >> The >> It's crazy. Big if true. >> Big if true.
1:40:40
Um the uh Yeah, I mean the vibe on the ground for this stuff is it's interesting, right?
1:40:46
Because there's a huge need for it and like economic data, you know, numbers go up and down all the time and people will panic.
1:40:53
um businesses might not actually take on more because capex is ultra expensive or something, right?
1:41:00
Um at the end of the day, stuff still has to get made, right?
1:41:05
And >> there's a lot of work that we're doing right now with the admin um which, you know, maybe we'll talk about someday, but uh people are very aware of this problem, right?
1:41:14
And we need to pump resources into the industrial base uh in a really meaningful and fast way.
1:41:19
So ultimately there's a huge demand and need.
1:41:25
Um even without the tariffs it was still there, right?
1:41:27
Um >> and I mean yeah starting this company when I did was a really interesting moment in history and like >> I was trying to frontr run that problem and ultimately I didn't really do anything for you know 2020 at all.
1:41:39
But yeah, I think I think people, you know, they're actually churning out parts and components are, you know, extremely happy uh with where things are at.
1:41:51
But, you know, overall, this is something that like we have the same conversation about over and over and over again, which is, you know, factory jobs and manufacturing jobs.
1:42:02
Like a lot of people don't know if that actually means a specialist, you know, CNC machinist, a CAM programmer, like somebody just pushing a button on a machine on a line somewhere.
1:42:11
Um, and ultimately you'll kind of see, you know, a collapse or you'll probably see, you know, a little bit of condensing of skilled trade labor as like technology flows more into the industrial base and we get more efficient factories that are cheaper.
1:42:29
Ultimately, it's not a zero- sum game, right?
1:42:30
It's like Jeban's paradox for for stuff.
1:42:34
>> If you can figure out a way to make more, we're going to make more.
1:42:37
>> I feel like there's a ton of energy like the biggest American dynamism story or the the biggest reindustrialization story has oddly been like the XAI Colossus like the Neoclouds what Crusoe is doing.
1:42:52
like it feels like there's an immense pull from the industry to build big things and they're building multi-billion dollar projects in America.
1:43:01
It's very much uh assembling parts from all over the place.
1:43:04
Um we just got a report that Elon's uh potentially buying a power plant internationally and then just rebuilding it in Memphis or Mississippi.
1:43:15
Um, but like do you think that that actually translates to um going down the stack or do you think that uh like all the AI energy will just wind up uh resulting in just build a big data center but still continue to make the transformers wherever they need to be made or make the you know the the networking equipment wherever it needs to be made.
1:43:40
I mean the chips like the the actual energy around moving chip production back to America.
1:43:46
It's it's a multi-deade project. >> Yeah.
1:43:50
I think I think um I think there's like a secret plan here that nobody's really talking about which you you've you've seen uh Elon and like Jensen hint at this right um in some of their public stuff that they've said.
1:44:02
>> Um they're all driving for applying AI to like the physical Oh, sure. Right.
1:44:08
Um, obviously we have to play with LLMs for a little bit and like cool video and image tools and stuff, but ultimately >> I think that like, you know, we saw what was that like a week ago Elon talking about making transformers now, >> like just going straight for the kill.
1:44:23
Um, I think that ultimately and like how Jensen talked about like, you know, >> yeah, I mean, SpaceX vertically integrated a ton of uh a ton of part making internally because they were they were fed up.
1:44:32
Uh, but what does that mean for your business, >> right?
1:44:35
So ultimate ultimately what it means is that like you're going to have a trade-off where skilled trades people are kind of like you know the replacement rate is very low.
1:44:45
>> Um so you might actually see some kind of like conglomeration or lomeration of >> these trades kind of you know forming like a foundational layer of building blocks where we can make components and parts. Yeah.
1:44:58
>> And the technology is applied to that. Right.
1:45:00
Like that's what I was saying like Jensen his whole thing is like using tokens for whatever. Right. >> Sure.
1:45:05
um if we can apply that to the part making layer, right?
1:45:07
It's just foundational kind of stuff and then from there you can build whatever you want. >> Yeah.
1:45:12
Um I are there uh I I remember early on when we were talking one of the interesting use cases for AI in a manufacturing context was you have you have a part that needs to be injection molded.
1:45:26
You need to build the build the the casting for that, right?
1:45:28
And you need to figure out where you drill the holes to dissipate heat, right?
1:45:31
Uh and then and the example you gave me was like if you're if you're molding a bumper for a car, uh the it's a very odd shape.
1:45:41
It's not just like something you can roll out on a sheet or cut stamp or do anything else, right?
1:45:45
You need to actually mold it.
1:45:47
Uh and it does that have any indexing towards uh like what goes on the data center like what are there parts that are uh that are benefiting in the data center context from that type of like injection molding optimization work?
1:46:01
Um potentially I mean it's going to be a lot of like racking and componentry right so if if there's some kind of weird new you know uh form factor what probably not but >> yeah most of the data center just feels like it's like like vertical racks just bolted together very like I mean Zuck's building data centers intense now like they're they're they're not going with like bespoke like beautiful like you know custom shapes or anything like that.
1:46:25
I think I think a lot of it like whenever you need to form a part of some kind, right, you have to pick what type of methodology you're going to use, like whatever is most cost effective.
1:46:31
Um, and also meets the requirement.
1:46:33
So, if it's a bunch of metal stuff, you're probably going to stamp it or, you know, it'll be made out of sheet metal or CNCed or something.
1:46:39
And then >> if it is a plastic thing that you can actually blast out in high volume and it's it's actually worth it, that's a great problem to solve, right?
1:46:45
And what we're doing is actually trying to lower that barrier >> and not everything can be a plastic part and people don't want that.
1:46:51
But if you actually lower that barrier then you know engineering changes actually because now you can actually >> rescope what is plastic what is metal and consider a different you know production method for it.
1:47:04
>> How are the capital markets treating manufacturing businesses and especially tech enabled manufacturing businesses today?
1:47:12
>> So >> I'm assuming you're not getting AI multiples but uh hopefully there's there's plenty to go around.
1:47:18
>> Well that's that's the thing is like there's no comp for this right?
1:47:19
Nobody's actually done this before.
1:47:21
Um, so, you know, TBD on that.
1:47:24
But I do think that even even like announcing the raise earlier, right, was a huge uh mistake on LinkedIn, you know, just because >> I now have gotten probably a hundred different emails and texts from, you know, people on the other side of venture. Yeah.
1:47:38
They're just like >> loans, you know, it's just like it's a wellspring of money.
1:47:42
There's an ocean of capital on the other side of this if you can prove something viable.
1:47:48
>> Where's the where's the business?
1:47:48
I mean you you said $25 million series A massive facility that you showed us.
1:47:51
How are you tracking with like revenue headcount?
1:47:56
Anything else that you could share? >> Yeah.
1:47:57
Um so with that kind of progression of going like software to mold making to part making.
1:48:02
Um we picked up like our first couple big you know part production contracts.
1:48:06
So >> interestingly enough it's kind of like SAS.
1:48:11
>> Um it's just like you know I need a widget for five years.
1:48:14
Like you're in charge of making the mold and the part now. >> Yeah.
1:48:18
Um, so we're going to start stacking like multi-year production programs.
1:48:22
Um, so we're kind of in the mid eight figure range for that right now.
1:48:26
>> Um, and >> let's give it up for the mid eight figures.
1:48:29
It's it's an amazing place to be. Underrated, right?
1:48:31
People already talk about nine figures.
1:48:33
Being in the mid eight figures.
1:48:36
>> The next time I'm back here, we'll be we'll be we'll be at, you know, nine figures. So >> fantastic. There we go. There we go.
1:48:42
>> And then Yeah, we're kind of >> Come back tomorrow.
1:48:43
>> Yeah, come Yeah, we'll be back tomorrow.
1:48:45
Um >> yeah, answer that phone call and then >> roughly uh 50 people right now. Um >> Oh, wow.
1:48:51
>> And it's it's interesting too because it includes people that are like in in the factories themselves like helping >> Yeah.
1:48:59
I mean it's it this is one of the main reasons we actually wanted to build in Detroit, right?
1:49:02
Because uh you know even though I love California um that talent is not here. Yeah.
1:49:07
Um, so we do have to kind of like rely on that initially to build out the footprint there and then once we actually have >> Would you come to California? >> Yeah, >> for sure.
1:49:18
>> But is California anywhere near the top of the list?
1:49:20
I feel like Texas, there's other I mean what's happening in Memphis and in in Mississippi?
1:49:23
Like there's so many other states that are more like please bring your business here. >> Yeah.
1:49:30
I mean, we're going to have to take a look at uh statewide, you know, incentive packages and see see how that's looking.
1:49:35
But that's that's kind of the model, right?
1:49:38
Is like 80% California offer incentives for these kind of things or they disincentives. Exactly. Disincentives. Yeah.
1:49:44
>> If you come here, we'll make your life hell, but the weather's great. I was so funny.
1:49:47
I was looking at uh I was looking at the weather report yesterday and I was like, this is this is why we this is why we do what we do.
1:49:54
75 today in Malibu, 75 and sunny, then 78 and sunny, then 77 and sunny, then 79 and sunny, then 79, and then 79, then 77.
1:50:03
I'm sure it's not that bad in Detroit right now. It's summer.
1:50:07
It's probably same exact forecast.
1:50:09
Everybody talks about don't talk about winter California.
1:50:12
People don't talk about fall in Detroit.
1:50:15
>> Well, in Detroit, I mean, in in Chicago, it's the same thing.
1:50:17
Chicago has fantastic summers. >> Yes.
1:50:19
People call Detroit the Staint Trope of America. >> It is. It is.
1:50:24
Anyway, uh congratulations.
1:50:26
Thanks so much for coming on the show, dude. Thank you for the gong.
1:50:29
Hit that as hard as you can. Blow. >> That was a good hit. That was you kept it. You kept it in.
1:50:35
That's a true test of strength being close to the gong and still getting that that contact. >> Congratulations. >> Yeah.
1:50:43
>> Thank you so much for >> all the progress. Go take that call.
1:50:46
>> We will talk to you soon.
1:50:49
>> And we have Ariana >> coming on the show in just a few minutes.
1:50:53
In the meantime, >> let me tell you about eight sleep. 8. com. Get a pod 5. 5year warranty. 30 risk-free trial. Free >> returns. I put up a >> shipping. >> What did I do? >> You did well.
1:51:06
>> I got a 94 last night. 7 hours 56. >> A 94. Eh, 94. >> 98. 98.
1:51:15
>> I was not expecting >> 98. Put that phone down. >> I beat Jordy Hayes. Uh, >> great. The great sleepoff. >> We should run it.
1:51:25
We should run a weekend uh like weekend average. See how >> Yeah. >> See how we do. >> Sleep off.
1:51:31
Uh anyway, uh there's a new paper that claims LLMs are better at selecting founders than venture capitalists.
1:51:38
Someone introduced VC Bench, the first benchmark for predicting for founder success in venture capital.
1:51:45
Uh this is from the University of Oxford and Julia Hornstein shares thinking about this uh quote but for but for Andre there is one job that AI will never do as well as living breathing living a living breathing human being. his think I'm kidding.
1:51:59
On an A16Z podcast last week, uh, Andre Opined that being a venture capitalist may be a profession that is quite literally timeless when the AIs are doing everything else.
1:52:11
He continued, that may be one of the last remaining fields that people are still doing.
1:52:15
Did Vlad say something too like singularity, you just invest for a living?
1:52:20
I I agree with the the the sense that uh the the highle point which is that like humans >> humans will like raise capital. >> Yeah.
1:52:33
>> Machines will probably deploy it. >> Yes.
1:52:36
>> But >> I do I do wonder I I would love to I I we have to we should dig into this VC bench thing more because I do think if I just like ran you could basically run a model against like a deck. >> Yes.
1:52:48
And even you can even analyze things like how fast a founder responds, right?
1:52:52
People talk about >> people talk about some of these like smaller data points like founders that respond fast like generally outperform.
1:53:00
>> I the like outperforming I mean uh I I'm not exactly sure how out what the outperformance was but uh being in the 60th percentile of venture capitalist like does not matter like you still do very poorly like you need to be at the long tail of the power law.
1:53:15
I'd be fascinated to know >> brand is like one of the biggest drivers in that >> brand's super important but also I I think I mean you you read zero to one the value of secrets like secrets are not in the training data and so there's so many decisions that are made in in a business partnership or backing a a founder that are secrets that never make their way onto the internet.
1:53:38
They never make it way they never make it into the weights whatsoever.
1:53:41
Maybe they make it into a a biography after someone passes away like decades later.
1:53:46
But so much of of decision in in venture capital and decision- making in business is really on the on the backbone of of uh of whisper networks and understanding >> being able to accurately predict the future >> subtext.
1:54:03
It's not just accurately predicting the future.
1:54:05
I feel like accurately predicting the future like broadly like AI is not that bad at that.
1:54:12
AI doesn't necessarily know like like all the different all the different secrets that are going into a business.
1:54:20
>> If you were running let's say you were running a model generally and and you asked >> in 2017 y >> do you think that uh bright young people in Silicon Valley are going to want to work in defense tech in seven years?
1:54:31
work in defense tech in seven years? a model might be like ah people have like pretty bad taste in their mouth like Google engineers are protesting even having any contracts right yeah so it just depends on >> I mean yeah the the the LLMs right now are not designed to be contrarian
1:54:47
machines like they're they're they're very much consensus focused and um >> just getting to a model that thinks independently or can take a contrarian position that isn't just take your conclusion and add a minus sign in front of >> it's like what if what if the average Redditor was deploying capital. >> That's the that's the that's certainly
1:55:04
>> That's the that's the that's certainly the bare case for this.
1:55:06
Uh at the same time, uh you know, potentially like the average Redditor is deploying capital.
1:55:12
Uh and that might actually define the VC industry pretty accurately right now.
1:55:17
And so I'm not surprised. Tyler, what's your take?
1:55:19
>> Uh okay, so I'm I'm looking at the actual like benchmark. Yes.
1:55:20
So basically uh so there's 9,000 the data set is 9,000 anonymized founder profiles >> and then um basically they're either labeled like success or I guess like failure depending on um >> do they return capital or something?
1:55:35
>> Yeah, if they exited IPOed over 500 million or raised over 500 million.
1:55:37
Um and then so it has like some of the stats were like uh tier one VCs are at predict 23%. >> Mhm.
1:55:46
>> Um and then DeepSeek chat is at 80%. >> That's a huge dump.
1:55:49
It's kind of like I it seems um hard to like anonymize these correctly to where like >> you're still encapsulating like what made them a good founder but also still like different enough that a model can't just like be like oh that's just Mark Zuckerberg without his name.
1:56:04
So like yes he's successful. >> Yes.
1:56:08
>> I think it's >> the other thing is like VC is the the issue is like VC is not about identifying the great founders.
1:56:13
You have to identify them and win allocation at specific moments in >> 100% that and then yeah and then also it's it's identifying the next great founder which is usually breaking a pattern.
1:56:25
I mean, Paul Graham has that famous example where he overindexed on Mark Zuckerberg, met a founder who literally looked like Mark Zuckerberg, wrote the wrote a check and it was one of the most underperforming investments he's ever made.
1:56:36
And he was like, "Yeah, I I was just like this guy is like went to Harvard, dropped out of Harvard, looked like Mark."
1:56:43
>> We have uh Ariana in the reream waiting room. Let's bring her in.
1:56:46
>> Let's bring her in to TVP the Ultra Dome. How you doing? >> What's happening? >> Hi, Jordy. Hi, John. Great to be here. >> Great to meet you.
1:56:54
Okay, I will start this off by saying I hate >> got I hate mold.
1:56:58
I'm a I'm one of the number one haters.
1:57:01
I I had a a rental once that had a mold problem. I got terribly sick.
1:57:07
Uh and it ended up being this crazy saga where I was like fighting with my landlord because they were saying like there's no mold problem.
1:57:16
I was showing them test results that showed there was a mold problem.
1:57:22
They were kind of pushing back.
1:57:22
I think it's a huge problem.
1:57:24
I went down this rabbit hole.
1:57:26
I think a bunch of people are kind of like waking up to um how prevalent the issue is, especially in like specific regions and even specific like like uh local communities.
1:57:36
So excited that you're building this and uh excited to hear about it. >> Thank you.
1:57:42
Yeah, there's definitely a cultural awakening happening.
1:57:44
Um you might have even seen HBO shows and Netflix and throughout the Reddit forums, Facebook communities.
1:57:50
uh influencers or on Instagram etc.
1:57:52
Like it feels like there's this ground swell of education and awareness happening beyond even our company. >> Yeah.
1:58:00
Uh how did you how why why did you start the company? Personal story. >> Yeah.
1:58:05
Uh super similar to yours.
1:58:05
Went through that journey with my landlord as well and prior to starting Mold Co.
1:58:11
didn't have health issues, then experienced debilitating symptoms and actually developed something called chronic inflammatory response syndrome, which is the more formal name for mold toxicity or mold related illness just in a 6 and 1/2 month time frame of being in my Miami unit, which was quite moldy. >> Crazy.
1:58:27
Uh what uh what is the uh I have an easy to tell what the company does at a high level, but like how are you how are you kind of like tackling the problem?
1:58:37
What does the business look like?
1:58:38
Yeah, we're tackling this in a few different ways.
1:58:41
So, the vision is to drive the standard of care for mold uh treatment and mold labs.
1:58:45
And what we do is offer labs both for health and the environment.
1:58:51
So, that includes um four different tests available on our website today.
1:58:55
Um specifically a three panel and a 16 panel for the Lab Corp Lab draw.
1:59:02
And that's based on our 30 years of research in the field.
1:59:04
So we have on our founding team the world experts the folks that not only pioneered the space but also define chronic inflammatory response syndrome came up with the biomarkers came up with the treatment all in their lifetime which is an extraordinary effort.
1:59:18
So we have that we also have something called HLA hletype testing to see if you have a genetic susceptibility to mold related illness and that impacts one and four here in the US and we also have a test which I frankly love over even a home inspector at times.
1:59:33
It's just a quick litmus test, low cost, use a Swiffer pad to wipe down your surfaces.
1:59:37
So, we have that on the lab side.
1:59:40
And then on the care side, we have our own in-house providers and we built a platform to uh treat patients at scale.
1:59:47
And that includes concierge care and our patient portal.
1:59:49
And that includes a distillation of something called the shoemaker protocol, which is the only published peer-reviewed um uh treatment approach in the space.
1:59:56
There's hundreds of publications making the mold health connection.
2:00:00
is really just a small body of work that demonstrates treatment and what's effective for patients.
2:00:06
So that's what we've done.
2:00:07
We've translated that into a virtual care clinic and we've done a lot of creative things to make that scalable for patients so we can keep the cost low and affordable.
2:00:16
What uh if if somebody I guess like what is your recommendation you meet somebody like randomly they hear about your business like what is the first step because I think a lot of people you you talked about people having like genetic susceptibility this this is I think important because it means that like a few people could be living in a house
2:00:36
and like some people aren't having necessarily any issues or symptoms and like one person could be having a super adverse reaction and that I feel like uh can make can make people like just like not really be aware of the problem cuz if you have if somebody's in college and they have some roommates that are doing fine and they're struggling they can it can end up being confusing. But what do
2:00:56
But what do you recommend to people?
2:00:58
Uh where do you recommend people start if they're kind of concerned that they might be dealing with an issue? >> Yeah, absolutely.
2:01:05
So we have testing options to meet patients where they are.
2:01:09
So it really just depends on where they are in that journey.
2:01:10
Um and you touched upon a really important topic and that's the canary effect.
2:01:13
There could be others in your household that start experiencing symptoms before you even experience symptoms.
2:01:18
But um it really just depends on where the patient is.
2:01:22
Have they already made the mold health connection?
2:01:24
Have they conducted a battery of lab test to validate that?
2:01:26
Um if so, those patients are often great to start care.
2:01:31
If the patient hasn't even made the mold health connection, but they're sure that there's mold in their home, they can probably skip the dust test and even a visual inspection or having that musty, earthy odor is sufficient.
2:01:41
So for that type of patient, we may recommend even the starter panel um which is one of our three um lab panels and that has the highest uh signal biomarkers based on the research that we have to date which I'm sure will evolve.
2:01:53
We actually have an R&D arm with the largest data set in the world for what we're doing too.
2:01:56
So we're looking to advance that and really drive the standard of care or if a patient doesn't know if they have mold in their home but they're having the indicative symptoms which includes brain fog, fatigue, um gastrointestinal issues, etc.
2:02:07
gastrointestinal issues, etc. It's normally a multi-system multi symptom issue um non-specific but affecting multiple systems then we would recommend uh a lab panel such as a starter panel or a complete panel the h >> you guys help uh would you guys help uh c uh like clients customers with uh with
2:02:27
like legal because I ended up having to hire a lawyer when I was going through my issue because my landlord was just like completely just like uh basically like gaslighting me not not uh is that something that that you guys would ever help people with or is that outside of kind of the wheelhouse? >> It's currently outside our scope. Um in
2:02:45
>> It's currently outside our scope.
2:02:45
Um in terms of the next evolution of the company, the parent company is actually called the immune co and our vision is to spin out Limeco and Long Co. Next.
2:02:54
Our thesis is that the data set we've collected uh which is looking at these microbial insults, mold and biotoxins that lead to innate immune system dysregulation leading to chronic inflammation can actually have the underlying research to help solve some of these other biotoxin related issues.
2:03:10
So we're more so going that direction versus expanding too horizontally within uh the mold economy.
2:03:14
But I think there's definitely opportunity there for founders.
2:03:18
>> The mold economy, we're here.
2:03:20
Um, how are you uh how are you guys acquiring uh customers at this point?
2:03:25
Is it is this this feels like the kind of thing that that um one there's a lot of influencers that that have dealt with this and that'll talk about it, but uh also feels like you could have an organic uh Tik Tok or real strategy or something along those lines.
2:03:39
>> Yeah, we're doing a lot of different things.
2:03:41
We actually just launched something called a content farm.
2:03:42
We had 7 million views in the last week or week and a half or so just off of that.
2:03:46
Um, so we are tapping into Tik Tok and Instagram and doing some fun things there.
2:03:51
We had a Reddit AMA with Dr.
2:03:53
Shoemaker, the Messiah of Mold, our founding physician, and that went viral in Reddit. >> Messiah of mold.
2:03:59
>> You got some you got some good >> good coinages here.
2:04:00
The mold economy, the messiah of mold. >> Thanks.
2:04:06
I don't have bots on my cap table, though, so maybe next.
2:04:08
Um, but yeah, so we've done that.
2:04:12
We've done uh we've had shout outs from patients.
2:04:14
um at least 15% of our patient base is based on referrals and we haven't even optimized for that yet.
2:04:20
I've been on at least 30 podcasts at this point.
2:04:21
So we're tapping into a lot of different ways to reach patients and increase education and awareness.
2:04:27
But there already is a large portion of the US that has made the molt health connections.
2:04:31
So um it's been pretty streamlined targeting those patients and onboarding them into our care.
2:04:34
Would you do anything last question I have, I'm curious.
2:04:38
Would you do anything around helping people make decisions on uh like specifically the moment in time where somebody's either buying a home or considering >> renting a property?
2:04:49
Because the thing that's like tragic about like kind of the mold crisis, if that's what you want to call it, is there's a lot of homes that are brand new and they will literally have like a like a >> significant mold toxicity problem >> on day one.
2:05:04
on day one because of the way they were built.
2:05:06
Or you think about it, it's like houses can take >> a long time to build.
2:05:10
They could have leaks, they could have a bunch of weather, all these different things, and then you move into a house that you think is brand new and it already is going to like make you sick, which is just tragic.
2:05:23
>> Um, thank you for touching on that misconception that new builds don't have mold issues. They definitely do.
2:05:26
The building materials are left outside in the rain.
2:05:29
uh the energy efficiency standards often have a trade-off for having more microbial growth in the home.
2:05:34
So um I think there's a lot of u dramatic irony there for home buyers and renters.
2:05:38
It's not something we're targeting at a deep level right now.
2:05:40
I often say that the environmental side is of more intractable than the healthcare side just because the healthcare side already has the solution available.
2:05:47
Um and every home is unique, every uh rental is unique.
2:05:53
So, we offer free educational guidance, but I think that's also another opportunity for a builder in the space if they want to help um uh essentially renters and owners better navigate um which homes have mold and to avoid that.
2:06:06
And there's also novel materials coming out like sirewall too to prevent mold in the first place. >> Awesome. Well, congratulations. >> Fundraising news.
2:06:15
>> What's the fundraising news?
2:06:15
You announced it yesterday, right? >> Yeah.
2:06:19
Um yeah, so we raised earlier this year a bit of a delayed announcement with uh Kantos and Collab Fund as our lead and um yeah, there we go.
2:06:29
>> How much did you raise? >> Uh 8 million total. >> There you go. Congratulations. >> Congratulations. >> Great names. >> Great names. Love to see it.
2:06:42
>> Thanks so much for having me on the stream.
2:06:43
>> Thanks for jumping on.
2:06:44
>> We'll talk to you soon. >> Cheers, guys. Bye.
2:06:45
If you want to get away from your moldy old home, head over to wander. com.
2:06:49
Book a wander with inspiring views, hotel great amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, and 247 concier service.
2:06:55
It's a vacation home, but better, folks.
2:06:57
Our next guest is Willard from Chaos Industries.
2:07:00
He's the chief strategy officer, former CIA, former congressperson. Welcome. >> What's going on? >> How you doing? >> Hey, doing fantastic.
2:07:10
It's great to be on with y'all.
2:07:11
I I feel like I'm on with the Shaq and Barkley. of tech reporting.
2:07:17
So, thanks for having me. >> We love to hear that. Thank you. >> Let's go.
2:07:19
We don't know about sports, but but those sound like some big names.
2:07:24
>> Fun fact, I endorsed you for president.
2:07:26
I said everyone else who's running is a lawyer.
2:07:28
You're the only computer scientist.
2:07:30
Talk to me about uh your journey studying computer science uh through working in the government.
2:07:35
I I I want to I want to get a little bit of backstory before we go into what you're doing now. >> Sure.
2:07:41
Um you know, it was funny.
2:07:41
When I was in high school, I had the opportunity to do an internship uh with a woman who was at Southwest Research Institutes.
2:07:50
They are one of the largest private research entities in in the country.
2:07:55
And I fell in love with with computer science and decided to go to Texas A&M University uh Giga Maggis and um you know study computer science, you know, and and when I when I first when I first got to college, I thought I was going to go work at IBM and then give it up for international business machines.
2:08:15
We love international business and machines. >> There we go. There we go.
2:08:18
Um and and but I had this guy who was a guest lecturer in one of my classes um that was a former CIA officer >> and he told the most amazing stories and I was like I want to do that.
2:08:33
>> And so when I graduated from college I joined the CIA and my I was a case officer so my job was recruit spies and steal secrets.
2:08:41
It was it was the best job. >> Yeah.
2:08:44
That's that's an important that's an important distinction because I think people think about CIA agents, but those are the people that are recruited by the case officers who are doing the the puppeteering, right? >> That's right.
2:08:57
Or you could say the spy master. >> Yeah, the spy master. Spy master. That's great.
2:09:03
>> Uh so yeah, please >> it was it was look it was an awesome gig, right?
2:09:06
Two years India, two years in Pakistan.
2:09:08
I did some inter agency work in New York City around counterp proliferation and then a year and a half in Afghanistan where I managed all of our undercover operations and in addition to collecting intelligence on our threats to our homelands, I had to brief members of Congress and I was pretty shocked by the caliber of our elected leaders.
2:09:27
So I decided to run for Congress and and that's kind of how that started. >> That's amazing.
2:09:31
Uh we we had uh Dan Wang on the show recently.
2:09:34
He wrote a book, Relentless.
2:09:36
Uh, and he talks about um I I hope I have that right.
2:09:40
I'm might be messing some of that.
2:09:43
But, uh, the basic thesis of the book is that China has an engineering mindset and they employ a lot of engineers in the government whereas America has become the lawyerly society and we have a lot of lawmakers who are lawyers by training.
2:09:56
And I'm wondering about your thoughts on the direction America should be going in terms of empowering folks who can think from first principles or have engineering mindsets to actually go and build things like highspeed rail or you know we got to the moon and we're seeing a little bit of this with with Doge and more engineers in in the White House.
2:10:16
What's the overall your overall view on the level of engineering talent in government and the benefits and costs of that?
2:10:24
>> Look, I I think that thesis is is actually correct.
2:10:26
Um, I've spent the last 25 years of my adult life in some form or fashion connected to national security.
2:10:32
Whether it was CIA, in Congress, I was on the House Intelligence Committee seeing how things our threats to our nation evolve.
2:10:39
I was on the appropriations committee making sure that we were spending trillions of dollars in in in the right way.
2:10:45
I've been on the National Security Agency um um advisory board.
2:10:50
Um when I was at Allen & Company, the New York Investment Bank, I was working with technology companies.
2:10:56
And here's been one uh similar throughput through all this.
2:10:58
Um the the Chinese government has made it very clear the way they're going to surpass the United States of America as the global superpower is by mastering a number of different technologies.
2:11:11
There's about 15, 16, 17 of them.
2:11:13
Everything from AI to to hypersonics.
2:11:16
And with that as the overarching goal, um there is a a desire and interest in in order to win.
2:11:21
Uh let's look, you mentioned the space race right now.
2:11:23
Uh where there's we're we're rushing to go back to the moon >> and the and guess what the Chinese are going to do?
2:11:31
The Chinese are going to do it the exact same way we did it in the past, right? Shocker.
2:11:35
They're going to steal all of our plans and ideas and replicate them.
2:11:39
You know, uh crazy >> for the first time. >> Yeah. Exactly. Exactly.
2:11:44
But but but we're also seeing that um in in in whether it's it's AI and how they're trying to dominate it.
2:11:51
We saw them uh uh dominate 5G.
2:11:54
Uh the fact that you know uh the the 5G infrastructure now is I think it's like a is over a third in in the world is is is Chinese tech.
2:12:02
the in AI, the issue of AI, um they're trying to make sure by 2030.
2:12:08
Every six-year-old is AI conversant and we're still having debates here in the United States of America about whether AI should should be included.
2:12:18
And then I don't even tell you about what's happening on the battlefield, right?
2:12:21
You know, we're seeing uh they're they're learning from Ukraine.
2:12:24
They're figuring out how to use autonomy in air, on land, and and and in the sea.
2:12:31
uh their focus on electronic warfare and how to disrupt our systems.
2:12:37
Um they're trying to not only build more than what we have, they're also looking forward to to making sure that they have mass and autonomy in in warfare.
2:12:42
And so this is this is the world in which we're living in.
2:12:47
And we need people that actually understand technology to make sure that we can make it happen. Perfect example.
2:12:53
No company cannot figure out not they don't know that what their budget's going to be next year or what their plan for sales is next year.
2:13:01
But within the federal government, you know, we don't know necessarily from year to year what the funding is going to be.
2:13:09
And for a trillion dollar enterprise, uh you can't do that.
2:13:12
I think at a minimum you should have a two-year uh budget and appropriation so that you can you know with some certainty of where you need to go and and not trying to go monthtomonth um to try to get things done and and I think that's that's right now one of the issues that I think a lot of venture capital and venture VC backed companies are trying to change with DoD.
2:13:33
Um it's slow it's going it's it's moving it's changing but we have to have that we have to bring that mentality to government. >> Yeah.
2:13:41
talk about your path to chaos.
2:13:41
Uh it's a it's a wild name for a defense tech company, but you're doing some very cool things.
2:13:47
Uh how did how did all this come together?
2:13:51
>> Look, I I didn't think um Sling Radars was going to was on my bingo card, right?
2:13:56
But when when I I got to meet uh uh Dr.
2:14:00
Bo Mar, one of our our co-CEOs and founders of Chaos, he had also previously founded Eperis.
2:14:05
John Tenant, another one of our co-CEOs who I've known for some time, and he's like, "Look, Will, we're doing something interesting.
2:14:13
Why don't you come to LA and and see our product?"
2:14:15
And and I was blown away. Right.
2:14:17
First off, unbelievable team, right?
2:14:19
This is these are, you know, engineers that have been um you know, quoted in in in um uh Nobel prizes, right?
2:14:29
You have you have real operators in government, Navy Seals, folks that worked in in Delta Force, CIA, um you know, you have operators that have been in in the system and you're working on some of the most cutting edge technology, right?
2:14:44
Like you know, we we have we have figured out a thing called coherent distributed networking.
2:14:51
This is taking multiple things in talking to talking to each other and we figured out how to do that to the picoscond.
2:15:02
>> Now a picos second you know for some for some references one picoscond to a second is like a second is to 32,000 years. That's really fast.
2:15:10
And by figuring out how you have this time transfer work, we're able to build a more powerful system and a cheaper system and and and and so the the that you know amazed me and and ultimately the the vision of of the company right since let's call it uh the end of the Korean War, right?
2:15:30
America and our allies have had air superiority.
2:15:33
We and that air superiority has given our troops the ability to look forward not above their heads at swarms.
2:15:40
It's allowed commerce to whip around uh the world and and those days are over, right?
2:15:48
Because of autonomy on on the battlefield.
2:15:50
70% of of casualties in in warfare right now are from autonomous systems and drones.
2:15:55
And the time to detect and do something about it is shrinking.
2:15:59
And ultimately what chaos is doing is we're giving the war fighter more time, a time to understand what's happening, time to decide what to do and and time to act.
2:16:06
And so for me to get back to my roots of national security, it was exciting.
2:16:11
And so that's how I ended up that's how I ended up at Chaos.
2:16:15
>> What's the what's the highest priority threat that radar can help mitigate?
2:16:18
Is it is it these autonomous drones these days? >> It it is.
2:16:24
Look, there's a lot of conversation right now around Golden Dome and and Golden Dome is is is something that we need to have.
2:16:30
We need to be able to defend against nuclear tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles right from our adversaries primarily China, Russia and Iran and and North Korea.
2:16:43
And this is a phased approach from detecting it when it when it launches from their homeland to trying to identify it in space.
2:16:50
the the the the technology that has evolved and and what we're able to do now sensing in space is pretty fantastic.
2:16:58
And this is an important this is an important problem.
2:17:01
But the reality in my the most recent threat like the the threat that we're most likely to see is a a subsonic cruise missile or a drone.
2:17:13
And and this can be this can be shot from a plane off the coast of California.
2:17:18
It could be a van that is filled with a a number of of of explosive drones.
2:17:24
These are the things that we're going to see um more more likely than a nuclear nuclear weapon.
2:17:31
And and we call these under layer threats.
2:17:32
These are things that are happening under 50,000 50,000 ft.
2:17:34
And and that's something that radars is is able to help detect.
2:17:40
And one of the things that we're learning because of of some of the technological uh advances we've made, we can see big high and far and low, small and near at the same time and and I always remind people I think pretty much everybody in America watch Maverick, you know, Top Gun 2.
2:17:57
>> Top Gun that's a real thing.
2:17:57
Flying below the radar is a real thing.
2:17:59
and and so uh we're able to see uh below that below that level and and that's something that that is going to be helpful against this drone threat which we've already seen.
2:18:12
We've seen what the Ukrainians did in in in Russia.
2:18:13
We've seen what what Israel has done in Iran and all of that being able to take out this this exquisite infrastructure. All right.
2:18:24
and and exquisite is actually a a a has a unique uh phrasing or or or definition in government that means big ass expensive systems. Pardon my language.
2:18:38
>> And and so so so we're you're able to take these systems out >> with a a system that cost a billion dollars with a drone that cost 20K, right?
2:18:47
So that cost asymmetry is one of the things that that the right radar and what we're doing in in multi-static radar is something that um that that is we're is one of the reasons why we're getting traction and excitement within uh DoD and and the rest of and militaries around the world to be honest.
2:19:04
>> I don't know if you can say anything here, but are you guys uh doing anything on the counter narcotics side?
2:19:10
>> Yeah, we've been seeing some stuff here.
2:19:12
Uh, I've I've watched a bunch of YouTube videos on narco subs aren't true submarines, but designed to be hard to detect.
2:19:19
Um, >> look, this is this is an issue that's actually, you know, close to my heart.
2:19:26
When I was in Congress, I represented a district that was 29 counties, two time zones, 825 miles of the border between Texas and and Mexico.
2:19:34
I had more border than any other member of Congress.
2:19:37
And so what the narco trafficantes, the drug traffickers are doing, um they're sophisticated.
2:19:42
The the narcos in Mexico alone are making roughly, and this is a conservative number, $60 billion in one year. >> Wow.
2:19:53
>> The the entire US intelligence budget is $60 billion, right?
2:19:56
And and so >> you add up all the all the foundation model lab revenue and you don't get anything. >> You don't get there. It's bigger than AI. >> Yeah.
2:20:05
No, look, it's it's it's it's wild.
2:20:07
And so so yes, um I I you know there is it is known um in the end of end of last year, I think beginning of this year, Border Patrol testified in front of the Senate that there were, you know, something ridiculous like 41,000 drone sightings in just one sector of the border.
2:20:24
So we know the narcos are using the drone warfare against themselves, right?
2:20:29
And and and so so like rival gangs basically. >> Absolutely. Absolutely.
2:20:35
It it's like the drone warfare you're seeing between Ukraine and and Russia.
2:20:39
They're adapting some of these tactics, techniques, and procedures to that fight.
2:20:42
And then we also know the only way you get $60 billion worth of of of drugs into the United States of America is by you bringing them in volume and and there is there is likely some coming uh uh via autonomous systems, air and and sea.
2:20:57
and we've had conversations uh with with authorities in order to help uh with this with this project.
2:21:05
And so once we once we learn more, we'll come back and I'll get you I'll give you a report on on on some of the things that that we're seeing.
2:21:14
>> Can you give me some uh some describe the shape or the physicality of what you're building?
2:21:19
Um you know, there's been you look at those like Anderl submarines, they're square now.
2:21:23
They look like they just fit in shipping containers.
2:21:26
Uh there's a lot of logistics that you get out of the box.
2:21:30
If it fits in a shipping container, you can load it onto a boat, an autonomous boat, you can load it on a truck.
2:21:35
There's also stuff that need can be mounted on an aircraft or something that's, you know, getting into exquisite territory, exquisite system territory.
2:21:42
Where do you see the opportunity to deploy new radar systems?
2:21:46
>> So, so one of our our products we call Vanquish is an expeditionary system.
2:21:48
So, uh the three of us can can carry that.
2:21:53
It can fit on the back of an ATV and go into to really Is that an invite? >> Rough drink. >> Is that an invite? Are we going ating? Let's do it.
2:22:01
>> Hey, you know, hey, I think we're just right around the corner from y'all. So amazing.
2:22:04
So So next time next next time we'll take y'all we'll take you out. >> That'd be great. >> Yeah.
2:22:09
>> And and so so that one is is low form factor, small that can be deployed in in difficult environments.
2:22:15
We have another system called Astria, which we were just celebrating.
2:22:20
We had a a a major finance award from um the the US Air Force about this product um that we're deploying in Eglund Air Force Base in in Florida.
2:22:31
>> How much was that deal for?
2:22:31
We like to ring the gong around here for big numbers. >> There we go. Hit it. >> Uh how much was it? >> Uh so uh 2 million. >> Oh, wait. One more gong. We got one more gong. >> We got one more. Give it to us.
2:22:45
>> The House of Representatives uh put in 10 million in the defense bill. Here we go. Go. >> Congratulations. >> There we go. I love it. I love to see it.
2:22:57
>> We like to celebrate big contracts around here.
2:22:59
Um, what what uh what else are uh are you or defense tech companies or the United States government uh focused on in terms of uh actual deployment?
2:23:10
There's been a lot of talk about uh you know the Ukraine war.
2:23:11
It's been going on for a long time. Very sad.
2:23:15
Um uh it's unfortunately become a a serious business for many companies.
2:23:18
Um there's also uh Anderol announced what a $1 billion deal with Australia.
2:23:23
Uh there's deals going on in Taiwan obviously in the Middle East.
2:23:28
Um where else in the geopolitical realm are should should founders be thinking about understanding the nature of the changing war fighter and the changing battlefield and then building solutions for look.
2:23:45
If you're if you're a defense tech company and you have an operator or aren't operating in Ukraine, >> that's that's that's going to be a problem.
2:23:52
If you're investing in companies, if I'm going to be an investor in a defense tech company, my first question is, does your stuff work?
2:23:59
And has it worked in Ukraine in one of the most difficult environments on the planet right now?
2:24:04
And that environment is going to make the First Island chain if we get into a conflict with the Chinese look like a playground, by the way.
2:24:11
And so so so we've been in in in in Ukraine.
2:24:14
We've been tested against the electronic warfare systems of the Russians.
2:24:18
The Ukrainians have asked us to come back.
2:24:20
We're working on being able to do that.
2:24:22
We were deployed in the Middle East during the 12 12-day war.
2:24:24
We saw Shahed um drones going back and forth um between between Israel and Iran.
2:24:32
So we've been deployed there.
2:24:32
Of course, the the potential for geopolitical conflict in in the Indo-Pacific is is an important place where we're having conversations to be able to to deploy against there.
2:24:42
So, so we've been >> How quickly how quickly can you guys set up in a new in a new region, right?
2:24:50
Because like Sentcom has been quieter, but feels like that could bubble up again at any point.
2:24:59
Look, so so our our system deployed, you know, once it comes off the truck, we can put it up in about 15 minutes, right?
2:25:05
And so so doing that is something but but changing the flow with within the within the US government.
2:25:09
Look, the the the the value of of a company like Chaos when we have, you know, basically half a billion dollars in our bank account from all of our our all of our our raises is we're able to operate in these long sales cycles or potential changes within the within the federal government.
2:25:27
And so so part of us is just understanding where the threat is, making sure we're deploying and and one of the reasons we're kind of, you know, been a little bit more active in in the public is that our stuff works and we've been deployed and it it's it's operating.
2:25:42
We have we have a year of of of consistent deployment in really tough places and and so that's one of the things that's important for us and we're going to go wherever the war fighter needs us.
2:25:53
>> Uh you're building a sensor.
2:25:53
There are other companies building.
2:25:55
There are companies that want to integrate sensors andectors.
2:25:59
I'm thinking of Palanteer.
2:26:01
I'm thinking of Latattis from Anderole.
2:26:02
Uh are those out of the box integrations?
2:26:04
Are those partnerships that you're talking to?
2:26:05
Obviously, you're super close with a lot of those folks.
2:26:09
Um what does what does building a product that integrates with everything else?
2:26:14
Because I can't imagine that you're saying, "Oh, on day one, we want to, you know, we we we we don't we want to be the only defense tech company."
2:26:22
No, you're part of the ecosystem.
2:26:22
you're building, you know, one solution.
2:26:24
How do you think about integrating with the rest of the key >> part of this and what the US government needs and wants is is completing the kill chain, right?
2:26:32
So you can sense and do the aector and and one of the areas holy grail may be too strong of a word, but getting to an aector that's cheap, right?
2:26:42
Or inexpensive is is the word word I should use.
2:26:44
And so that integration is important.
2:26:46
Um, and so we've already demonstrated ability uh to integrate with our our our friends in Anderero.
2:26:52
But Paul and I go way back when I was in in Congress.
2:26:54
I was talking about having a smart wall, right?
2:26:56
And and I get this phone call from some dude named Paul Mlucky and and I'm like, you know, he's like, I got your smart wall.
2:27:05
And and that began that began a a relationship and and helping those guys.
2:27:11
Uh again, same with Palunteer, right?
2:27:13
You know, I've seen Palunteer for a really long time.
2:27:14
you know, even back to my days when when I was in the CIA.
2:27:16
So, our ability to integrate and work together and and and and the unique thing about some of the technology that we're working on, this cutting edge stuff, is it actually can potentially be a force um uh uh multiplier for other systems um as well.
2:27:31
And so, so the name of the game is to be able to integrate and make sure the command that we fit into the command and control infrastructure and ultimately our sensor can make every aector uh better.
2:27:42
So, so this is, you know, exploring those areas as we explore the kill chain and and all of our suite of products.
2:27:50
U making sure that again at the end of the day, we see farther, >> right?
2:27:55
We see farther than everybody else and we give that war fighter more time.
2:27:58
And when you have more time, >> then you can decide, wait a minute, which tool in my toolkit >> do I want to use in order to in order to deal with this threat?
2:28:07
And and the more time you have, the better it is.
2:28:09
And when you have bombs dropping on your head or people shooting at you, even if it's five to 10 more minutes, that's an eternity.
2:28:16
And and to be able to give that time back to the war fight is what we're focused on.
2:28:20
Uh >> what's it like uh for people that are starting their career on the public sector side, whether it's intelligence or something like uh uh down at the border like are do they do they have a feeling that that they have like the tools are great or are they still or is the sense if you're if you're actually op you know the the one needing to operate and use these tools that they can and should be a lot better.
2:28:47
I I look it depends on which entity you're talking about.
2:28:53
An organization like the CIA which is which is which is geared towards helping the pointing end of the spear whether that's the case offer that's collecting the information or the the person doing a a covert operation.
2:29:07
There is a there is a belief in that you have entities like Inqutell which is focused on bringing in new technologies in to help the war fighter.
2:29:15
Um, you know, when you look at some of the special forces units that are really good at adapting and making sure the our our boys and girls in in in those units have what it needs, it but but it's not it's not uniform.
2:29:28
And we always talk about how the procurement cycles of getting the right thing in the right hands matters.
2:29:34
And and here's where some uh startups that are that are VC bay based or coming out of Silicon Valley, don't get wrong.
2:29:42
Like we talk about these long cycles, but guess what?
2:29:44
the stuff has to work out of the box when it comes to when it comes to getting in the hands of of our of our military.
2:29:50
It has to work every time and and so that the training and evaluation matters and that's what adds to some of that time uh of getting those getting those equipment and it has to work with within our system.
2:30:03
So I think if you talk to someone on the border or first in their in their um uh early in their their career, they may be frustrated with the lack of some of the tools, but some of the problems is that that tool has to be, you know, be be tested and it has to have the cyber security to defend against u the the Chinese government.
2:30:24
>> Um well, talk to me about the path to program of record.
2:30:27
You have this radar contract, more money coming from the House approval.
2:30:31
Um the the typical story that I hear from a lot of defense tech startups is they get a SBIR and then they sprint towards program of record.
2:30:41
Obviously over the long term you want that durability of re revenue that you can underwrite a massive manufacturing facility so you can be making this and improving it every year.
2:30:49
Uh what is the net what does the future of the company look like for you?
2:30:54
>> Well look look all all those things are true and and we're we're far down we've engaged with all of the the branches on this.
2:31:00
We're at certain levels of the of the buying process.
2:31:03
And you know, it starts with >> a user >> Yeah. >> wanting your thing. >> Yeah.
2:31:10
>> And if you have users wanting your thing, then it makes it a lot easier in order to connect the dots and put the money that that you need, right?
2:31:18
And and so, look, I I I use the annual example.
2:31:23
when they did their first uh border technology, that was a $10 million appropriation in um in in the budget, right?
2:31:31
That led to one of their first program record.
2:31:33
Um and so so that's that's an example of of how you get there.
2:31:37
If you have a product that works, if you have a product that is doing something unique and you have a user wanting it then and you've demonstrated that capability in the most uh the difficult environments to operate, then guess what?
2:31:51
finding that path to to program a record um is not as difficult.
2:31:57
Um and again, I'm not trying to act like it's like it's easy. It's not.
2:31:58
But but being able to line up all of those things is something that we that we have experience with. >> Yes. Well, congratulations.
2:32:07
Thanks so much for coming. >> This was super fun.
2:32:10
The chat The chat loves you. >> The chat loves you. Everyone's going crazy.
2:32:14
>> Saying Will Herd's my dog. >> Yes. Thank you for joining. Come back on.
2:32:20
have more news or if there's something in the world happening you want to chat about.
2:32:23
>> We would love to do that. Thanks fellas.
2:32:25
I really appreciate y'all. >> We'll talk to you. Have a great weekend.
2:32:28
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2:32:38
We have our second inperson guest. Welcome to the stream.
2:32:43
>> Looking good in the suit.
2:32:46
>> Our second guest show.
2:32:49
Thanks so much for sharing your merch. >> Oh, fantastic. We love hats here. >> I'm throwing it on.
2:32:55
>> We got our second guest.
2:32:55
Uh, introduce yourself for the stream for those who don't know. >> $350 million man. >> Hello. How's it going?
2:33:02
I'm Sam, co-founder, CEO of Numemeral, >> which you know, of course, because >> which you know and love.
2:33:09
>> We have been partnered with Numel for a number of months now.
2:33:10
Uh, kick us off with the news of the day.
2:33:14
>> The news of the day is we've raised 35 million on a 350 post. >> Congratulations. Take this.
2:33:19
Hit that gong as hard as you want. >> Wait. >> Subtle but firm. >> Not too hard.
2:33:27
>> Uh coming off series A from Benchmark as well. Was that early? >> Exactly.
2:33:31
We did a series A from Benchmark earlier this year and so just following on there, you know, capitalize on all the momentum.
2:33:36
>> Who did the double down?
2:33:36
We did it with uh Mayfield. >> Mayfield. >> So >> classic fun. >> Got a classic fun.
2:33:41
Got to keep it old school.
2:33:43
>> Been in the business for generations for for decades.
2:33:45
Uh, we got to update Jord's ad read for the probably the first 50 ad reads he was benchmark series A. We had a lot of fun.
2:33:51
>> Don't forget Don't forget YC as well. >> YC. Love it. >> When did you do YC?
2:33:55
>> We did YC beginning of 2023. >> Okay.
2:33:58
>> Um, actually working with my old boss at Airbnb, Gustav.
2:33:59
So, it was fun to get to work with him again. >> No way.
2:34:03
What uh when did you know you wanted to automate sales tax? >> Oh man.
2:34:07
Uh, since the womb actually.
2:34:10
I've been dreaming about it, you know.
2:34:12
No, for me, you know, I was similarly uh as you guys like actually running e-commerce businesses, still own a vitamin gummy shop doing 10 plus million a year. >> Amazing.
2:34:21
>> And so >> why what is it about gummies that just sell better than any product on >> people love gummies?
2:34:26
They don't want to >> It's the best e-commerce business because, you know, you get that repeatability.
2:34:31
It's easy to it's easy to predict. You take two a day.
2:34:33
And I think people don't like pills. They love Americans. We love sweets. We love candies. So >> little treat. Um that's great.
2:34:39
when you discover the problem through that business. >> Exactly.
2:34:43
>> Exactly. So my co uh you know my my co-founder there and I of the gummy business we were just dealing with um sales tax compliance for all we had to register in 40 plus states and so I was dealing with you know local parishes in Louisiana and like on the phone with some women in West Virginia and I got like an argument about penalty waiverss
2:35:01
and I'm like this is insane that I'm trying to spend my time on growth and marketing or product and things like that and instead I was wasting like hours just dealing with you know the IRS compared to these states is like working with Apple or like Google or some like amazing company like Department of Revenue Alabama like give them a call and it it's insane. And so I think the
2:35:20
And so I think the thesis was you have you've had these incumbent tools that have been around for 20 plus years.
2:35:28
>> Um the most famous one is this one called Avalara.
2:35:29
And the problem with them is it's a it's like kind of this this very narrow tool and you have to spend hours and a month dealing with them.
2:35:38
So you get physical mail from the states and then you have to figure out what to do with it, how to call the state and they won't even pick up the they're owned by private equity so they don't even pick up the phone when you have an issue.
2:35:45
Um, so for us it's, you know, we're not really trying, you know, it's software, but we really, if you're a customer, we really want it to feel like service more than software because, you know, with AI, since we invented AGI, you know, we're using we're using >> sales tax AGI. >> Sales tax AGI, right?
2:35:59
And so, um, no, but yeah, with with AI, you can deliver what feels more like a service.
2:36:04
Um, but, you know, fundamentally, it's still a software business.
2:36:08
>> What was the fundraising uh process like?
2:36:10
I want I want to know uh just take the temperature of like you just went out and did a fundraising round.
2:36:14
You talked to a lot of VCs.
2:36:16
Were people trying to get the story out of you?
2:36:17
Was it Vibe round, Excel round?
2:36:20
Like what is the focus of Silicon Valley VCs right now?
2:36:25
Um since AI has become a tool that pretty much every company's pulling off the shelf um just what was the what was the vibe on the road show?
2:36:34
>> That's a good question.
2:36:34
I think yeah, you have to AI has to be, you know, front and center.
2:36:37
Uh any friend that's, you know, is raising and and not putting their front and center, it's hard to actually get a meeting or or be taken seriously.
2:36:43
My sense is, you know, it's starting to get maybe a little too far over the edge.
2:36:46
I've seen some insane uh some insane markups.
2:36:49
Like we intentionally um actually took like a lower markup than we could have just because um you know, I just tend to run these things a little bit more incrementally and and and don't want to you know um overextend yourself.
2:37:00
Um I've seen I've been in startups where we went a little too crazy and and like you know it's easy it's easy to kind of just you have too much money, you spend too much.
2:37:10
So, um, but but yeah, it's if you if you have I think too if you have like some good AI logos of companies you're working with, we're seeing I've been seeing some like 100x 200x mult, you know, multiples out there, it feels a little bit backward >> just because they have they're working with like a lab or something like that. >> If you Yeah, exactly.
2:37:24
If you can close a lab, a couple labs, like you're going crazy.
2:37:28
I mean, in some cases it's worth it, right? Look at Merkore, right?
2:37:31
>> They're growing so fast and and that's their core business.
2:37:32
That makes sense with Merkore.
2:37:34
Um, but yeah, if you're more of like a software tool that could be used by any company, not not directly indexed revenue-wise to the lab revenue, which is growing very fast.
2:37:42
Yeah, it's a little bit of a just like it's a good good, you know, they're obviously cutting edge businesses.
2:37:47
They probably select the best software.
2:37:48
So, >> but it's it's definitely starting to get a little frothy, you know, not putting my I'm not putting a ton of my own money into uh >> Yeah.
2:37:54
Do you think that AI is changing any of like the fundamental physics of like the the business models?
2:37:59
like we we we we covered the story with notion.
2:38:01
Uh notion said they normally have 90% gross margins, now they have 80% gross margins, but they're growing and so it's it's mathing out.
2:38:09
I feel like with as we enter like the SAS apocalypse where the legacy SAS players aren't moving fast enough and we see a new generation of of companies come up, I'm I'm wondering how much people should update on the actual like foundational like is there something changing about the monopoly thesis, how companies acrew value, the margins, what the actual long-term cash flows will be.
2:38:33
It feels very much like like it's a big opportunity to build something new, get new customers on board, grow a big business, but it doesn't necessarily change the actual structure of the business. But what's your take?
2:38:43
>> Yeah, I think each business is different.
2:38:45
Um, so yeah, with the with the gross margins, even we've seen some compression because we're spending so much on running agents and um yeah, we have, you know, if you have a state portal, >> so many people aren't willing to admit that.
2:38:58
that. as they're like and it's like it's actually a good thing if you're spending a lot on inference because it means you're actually using you're not just saying you're >> well a lot of people were also on credits for a long time and so they were doing and or the credits were really discounted but now we're in more of a stable inference cost $4 per million
2:39:15
tokens if you're doing something serious >> yeah our AWS bill I think doubled um like relative to our revenue right so it's like our gross margins have actually compressed >> but I think our product has gotten a lot better and you The hope is eventually over time, you know, these the inference costs go down, the models get more efficient. And so I think to me that's
2:39:33
And so I think to me that's like a little neurotic to worry.
2:39:35
So I mean it depends who you are, but to me that that's like a neurotic thing to worry about like the short-term gross margins.
2:39:40
I think for me, at least for my business, where I'm excited >> is, you know, the services economy is like at least an order of magnitude larger than the than the software economy.
2:39:50
And so a lot of what we're starting to replace now is not really there's these legacy software providers but again as you bigger companies usually they don't even work directly with them.
2:39:59
They'll hire an accounting firm to manage Avalar or Vert.
2:40:01
Ex or these old school solutions.
2:40:04
>> They're like this this software is so rough I don't even want let's hire somebody to that.
2:40:08
Like I've literally been in that position trying to buy the competitor product years ago and uh and being like it's expensive and also I don't have the man power to do it.
2:40:18
So we'll just continue to just like file whenever we can and it's very rough.
2:40:24
It's all done in a spreadsheet. >> Yeah.
2:40:25
I mean we are the uh official I have the real one. Yes. I got the tin here.
2:40:28
The official tax provider of Lucy. >> My DTOC nicotine.
2:40:33
>> They're going to get it right.
2:40:33
We are powered by numeral. It's fantastic. >> Yeah.
2:40:37
And so it's interesting right?
2:40:37
So, for example, we started we filed taxes for someone this week in Tanzania and Kenya and like we're the only software provider on earth that's I think ever filed taxes in in Tanzania and and so I think uh let's go Tanzania.
2:40:52
>> Hit the gong for Tanzania. There we go.
2:40:56
>> You can you can send that to the office there.
2:40:58
Whoever chatting with >> um >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
2:41:02
>> Yeah. what uh what what you guys are scaling quickly and it's and it's a it's a category that's like not >> it's an interesting one because it feels like uh like investing in ecommerce infrastructure was at its hottest like
2:41:19
maybe like four or five years ago and so is do you like that it's like a bit overlooked as a category and like where is most of the grow is the most of the growth coming from >> like online retail companies or is for SAS and great question. What's that What's that split? >> Yeah.
2:41:34
So, we started the business fully focused on e-commerce.
2:41:36
That's where I was coming from.
2:41:37
I mean, I'd worked at software businesses before.
2:41:39
I was a PM at Airbnb, but um we started just in ecom and I think yeah, that market's been really dry for you know people uh servicing the e-commerce um space like the you know software the software provide providing for that space because the TAM is somewhat limited.
2:41:54
You know, e-commerce growth is something like 5% year-over-year. >> This is a problem. Yeah.
2:41:59
you saturate and then you're growing at 5% and no VCs are giving. >> Exactly.
2:42:03
Most of the good businesses I see buil being built are either bootstrapped or vin or more like a venture light model which makes sense just because the TAM is going to be more cap >> more like an app in the Shopify app store plug and play do something minimal scale it really become like a public company. >> Exactly.
2:42:18
I think we were the first company benchmark funded that's actually been servicing uh you know e-commerce merchants. Right.
2:42:23
But again, >> and was that do you think they had a sense of like this numeral while it looks like a Shopify plugin or or just like an e-commerce infrastructure tool, it's really going to be eating into the services revenue from these legacy >> tax like prep.
2:42:41
>> I mean, it's so crazy with Lucy like we did not rip out and replace to get unnumemer.
2:42:45
We went from nothing and this was like a seven eight-year-old business at the time. >> Yeah.
2:42:50
And so yeah, so like just to benchmark like our our partner Chathan, you know, when he was early in his career, he actually was did an analysis on Avalara, you know, they were started in 2006, I think, Avalara.
2:42:58
And so they were just going public or something.
2:43:02
He's like, "Wow, this business should be amazing."
2:43:03
He checked back 10 years later and it was just being operated really poorly.
2:43:06
That's why they had a you know, host private equity takeover because it wasn't they weren't operating well.
2:43:09
Um so I think he he had seen this category and was like waiting for there to be someone to go and challenge.
2:43:14
Um you know, we started fully e-commerce.
2:43:16
Now, you know, it's it's a closer split.
2:43:18
you know, it's it's a closer split. we have a lot more SAS and e-commerce businesses especially with our international pro um with our international service with the the only um player in the space that can actually go and register and file in 60 plus countries and so >> I feel like if you're if you're making some consumer AI app and you're selling
2:43:36
to users that are in Tanzania or something >> exactly right so Lucy is probably not selling a lot in Tanzania but you know we have like these these hot AI companies that like the one in Tanzania they're they're like a year a year old but they have you know hund00 million of ARR and so you have customers around the world and you know there your stripe
2:43:53
dashboard is blowing up with all these warnings and people don't you know they get freaked out but they don't deduce they just kind of kick the can for a long time but you know sometimes you can you know do that and not get in trouble but some places will just like like you know you don't want to mess with those countries right you don't want to mess
2:44:06
with Mexico like the authorities there >> yeah it's pretty it is a pretty new phenomenon that uh I mean there were a lot of apps in the last boom of you know software that might internationally distributed because of AWS and and because of Google uh on day one, but they weren't necessarily taking money from individuals in that comp in that country on day one. It's more like
2:44:29
It's more like there's there's ads that are being shown there, but the companies that are paying are in the United States or they're doing something else and they're just like, "Oh, we'll monetize it later."
2:44:37
No, these these companies that are doing uh new AI products or something like they're putting the credit card down in that local country on day one and and then you need to actually process that, right?
2:44:47
This round this round got this round got leaked by R for Rock, right? >> Yes, they did. >> What was that?
2:44:54
What was >> Who do you think Who do you think are for Rock is? >> What was the impact?
2:44:57
What was the impact from that?
2:44:58
Like did it was it helpful at all?
2:45:01
>> Hard to know closed when it >> The round the round had already closed by then, so it didn't really matter.
2:45:07
But, you know, it was a little bit low on our revenue.
2:45:10
>> Um, so I did retweets because they clocked the revenue.
2:45:13
>> They clocked the revenue.
2:45:13
Not like crazy amount low, but you definitely uh seven figures low.
2:45:17
And so yeah, I was like, come on.
2:45:19
Like we have the most AR of all the sales tax uh startups in the space and the most most customers, the most money raised and so you know, you always want to be a little bit cocky there because it's hard to know. Yeah.
2:45:28
What do what do you like uh projecting out a few years like what do you think happens to the category?
2:45:37
Can the category support number of players?
2:45:39
Do you think some of these venturebacked competitors will just end up being like a decent little business?
2:45:46
Uh good question or >> uh do you think I mean there's a bunch of you know massive massive you know tax prep you know big big consulting so maybe it can support multiple billion dollar players.
2:46:00
>> So when you look in the public markets right you have companies like Alvalara who is take you know they're they're going to go public again next year.
2:46:05
Um people are saying like 1. 1 1.
2:46:07
2 two billion of revenue.
2:46:09
Um Thompson Reuters has a subdivision doing like indirect tax. Yeah.
2:46:13
Called One source secretly a billion dollars of revenue supposedly and like nobody it's like this thing nobody's looked at you know it's like a plug into SAP and Oracle and so the tool looks insane like it's built in the 1970s but you know if you're some big if you're IBM if you're IBM like or whoever um you might be using it and there's another one Vertex Inc.
2:46:32
founded in the 1970s, another public company, sales tax software.
2:46:36
Um, you know, it's but companies like Door Dash still rely on Vertex and they racked physical service in San Francisco and to get the right tax rate.
2:46:44
I think they updated with like a CDROM to make the rates get updated.
2:46:48
So, are you how much time are you spending how much time are you spending like basically >> doing these like much bigger highlevel partnership stuff where you're going to these sort of scaled software companies and saying like, "Look, the way you're doing this is insane.
2:46:59
it's going to take time to switch over, but like there's a better way.
2:47:03
Is that where you're spending a lot of time? >> Yeah.
2:47:06
So, you know, we started more in like the kind of SMB e-commerce space.
2:47:11
And so, that's where a lot of our early traction's been.
2:47:12
Now, we're starting to have conversations and and starting to sign customers with hundreds of millions of revenue, work with a customer of you guys, um, eight sleep, right?
2:47:19
So, that's another unicorn.
2:47:22
And so, we're starting to work with bigger and bigger businesses.
2:47:25
still really focused though on software, you know, kind of startups and and and direct to consumer businesses.
2:47:31
We haven't gone and started talking to with legacy businesses a lot.
2:47:35
That's, you know, working with accounting firms and things like and like the big four that, you know, this just takes a long time and we've obviously had some of those conversations, but it's just not our focus.
2:47:43
>> What's the ladder for signing bigger and bigger customers?
2:47:46
Do you have a rule of thumb like never jump more than one order of magnitude?
2:47:49
Like if you if you have a company that's doing a hundred million in sales, you feel like, yeah, we could probably do a company with 800 million in sales, but if a company with eight billion showed up tomorrow, that's going to be after we sign the $800 million contract. What do you think? >> Yeah, good question.
2:48:05
I think yeah, order magnitude seems high.
2:48:07
You know, you try to go a little bit conservatively, right?
2:48:09
Because we are running their tax engine and you know, you want to make sure that doesn't go down and lots of money on the line.
2:48:15
So we try to have it um yeah like like four 4x roughly >> double 4x or you scale up with folks um we haven't we've never had like an issue with outages and stuff.
2:48:26
outages and stuff. I think you know in 2025 it's not that hard to scale your your servers and these type of things but um you know yeah we do a lot of hype marketing but we're still kind of cons we're very conservative with the way we run our product just because it is you know a compliance product and so we'll make a lot of noise but when you actually comes down to the details you
2:48:44
got to be pretty uptight you know >> about it tricky to use AI in a compliance context like what what kind of guardrails do you have to put on the the the LLMs that are doing work I can imagine a bunch of places where it's
2:48:57
fine to have non-deterministic uh you know you know just data ingest or you know uh something where there's a human in the loop but but where have you where have you shied away from putting it in place? >> Yeah, where we think about it is like
2:49:07
>> Yeah, where we think about it is like there's still usually a human that does the last mile.
2:49:10
So I would give you a couple examples like one is when we we read for clients you you get physical mail from every state and country and you you'll get like a like a stack every month and it's like exhausting to have to read through all this physical mail.
2:49:22
So we get it, we scan it, and we have AI take a first pass reading it.
2:49:25
And most of the mail that AI, you know, it's like this is like >> if you can take physical mail that was going to somebody like the amount that I would I actually should find a personal service like I never want to get mail like at my house like >> I used a service years ago where you you send all your mail there, they scan it and then you get like an email inbox basically.
2:49:46
Um, obviously that's way better now with a with modern AI and I can imagine that be part of the workflow.
2:49:52
>> Well, it's like you get a letter from California or somewhere and it's like, oh, sometimes you get a like I get a uh, you know, like like Joel of stress, right? Cortisol.
2:49:58
That's the word I was looking for. You read my mind. Yeah.
2:50:00
You get a little cortisol from the IRS or whoever it is.
2:50:03
Um, but you know, half the time it's like we got one last week for a client.
2:50:08
It was, you know, breast pumps in California are tax exempt for the next 3 months and like Lucy probably got this letter.
2:50:12
And so you got the stress for nothing.
2:50:14
But then sometimes it is maybe a letter, hey, there's a lean on your business.
2:50:18
There's a big issue here.
2:50:19
And so anything that like requires human intervention, we have like a a mail team of six people that literally will go they open up the the they'll read they'll read the letters and they'll go and like actually handle the the last mile compliance.
2:50:30
Similarly on the tax research side, you know, how do you know that Juno I'm making this up Juno Alaska has a 4 cent soda can tax law?
2:50:39
Often it gets passed in some city council notes.
2:50:40
And so the way these legacy providers do it is they have hundreds of lawyers and and researchers just reading this stuff by hand.
2:50:46
And like we asked we hired some we have a couple lawyers on staff.
2:50:49
We asked him like how would you figure out the taxability of I think it was like uh bagels in in California.
2:50:54
And he's like going on the California like controlf bread bagel like it didn't work.
2:50:58
Okay, baked goods finally worked.
2:51:01
And so this is like such an obvious thing where AI is able to go and do that first pass of like we put in bagel as a category.
2:51:08
Okay, it finds all the baked goods.
2:51:08
It makes a burst best first guess, but any single piece of tax research, it's not even that we have like one human lawyer look after.
2:51:15
We actually have to have two legal opinions on any single fact.
2:51:16
And but it but it really makes them like 100x lawyers.
2:51:20
So all the busy work they were wasting their time doing, they don't have to spend time.
2:51:23
And then the things that are really complex that requires going through, you know, huge adjudications and things like this, they can really put use their legal minds for.
2:51:30
Are you rating scrapers yet to scrape every local law that's passed and then at least pipeline that in to say, "Hey, maybe we still need a lawyer to look at this, but like we noticed that something changed." >> Exact.
2:51:42
That's 100% what we're doing, right?
2:51:43
So, yeah, we have a lot of like this we have a tax research group and yeah, that's like where a lot of the fun work is getting done.
2:51:49
>> We're doing the real AI research that that that we need.
2:51:52
>> This is this is important.
2:51:54
>> How are you thinking of scaling headcount?
2:51:55
This feels like a business where obviously you you probably will grow the team quite a bit post B, but it feels like the kind of business that you should be like, you know, not like running in the red for 12 years in a row.
2:52:08
Like you can probably start to make like real profit pretty >> hopefully. >> Yeah.
2:52:14
So, I mean, even like our raise, right, I kept 10% dilution.
2:52:16
right, I kept 10% dilution. I like I we could have raised like a bigger louder round but I think for us you know I've seen excess before and like excess hiring so you know we don't have so we started the year 25 folks we're up to 65 um >> but you know we but we but even that
2:52:33
like everyone it always feels like tight you know there's no office manager nothing like that I was plunging the toys yesterday we'll post some footage someone got of me like they broke so I think yeah so there we go uh so I think no the point is though I think we always try to run these things as as as lean as possible. I think still the hardest area
2:52:48
I think still the hardest area to scale exponentially or like that tends to scale more linearly is is your go to market sales team.
2:52:54
It's just um you know we we have some self-service stuff we're building out but I just think in general um AI has not replaced sales people.
2:53:02
It's still a very human endeavor and so that's probably we and that and obviously AI can eat steak >> play a round of golf.
2:53:10
>> Not yet going to stay that way.
2:53:11
>> We're getting there but >> um you should cap off the show with us.
2:53:14
Let's let's let's uh check the timeline and see uh if there's any breaking news before the weekend.
2:53:19
Usually these companies wait until the second they see we go off the air. >> Yeah.
2:53:24
>> And then they they >> I mean the the big news that we haven't covered yet is Nvidia did one of those zombie acquisitions.
2:53:29
They bought this company in Fabrica and they paid $900 million.
2:53:34
They hired the CF the CEO and they licensed the startup technology.
2:53:39
The CEO is Roshan Sankar, the guy behind Broadcom's AVGO, Tomahawk switches.
2:53:42
So Nvidia is is now getting into the game. >> Some clear chat. >> Yes. Yes. Yes.
2:53:49
>> Nvidia isn't just buying talent.
2:53:49
They're locking down the AI data centers networking backbone.
2:53:55
>> Well, congrats Dylan Patel in Somebody should make it.
2:53:57
Somebody should make an AI text blocker for your browser so that it detects like chat GBT generating.
2:54:05
does feel like it's pretty detectable at this point, but for some reason, uh, it's not.
2:54:09
Um, what else is is going on in here?
2:54:12
Uh, oh, uh, JP Morgan put out a report on Nvidia.
2:54:15
Nvidia's investment in Intel.
2:54:18
Nvidia put five billion in, marked up the US taxpayer, marked up Leopold Ashen Brener. Let's hear it.
2:54:25
Let's hear it for Leopold and the US taxpayer. Uh, fantastic.
2:54:27
uh but uh JP Morgan's analysis said more value will be is seen acrewing to Nvidia in the Intel collaboration.
2:54:37
There's still no commitment to Intel foundry.
2:54:39
So Intel's still going around trying to get enough of those customers to justify their next big fab uh Nvidia is uh is is going to benefit a bunch from this.
2:54:48
So even though uh it's just interesting because uh there was one framing of this story which was like Nvidia is is making this investment as like an olive branch that they just have 60 billion sitting around.
2:55:00
They're going to throw five billion into Intel.
2:55:01
Uh maybe just because they think the stock will go up or maybe that that they'll they'll they'll they'll like basically give five billion away as an olive branch to support this American chip manufacturer and then they'll they'll trade something and they'll be able to sell into China or something like that.
2:55:15
Well, now JB Morgan's here saying that uh yeah, Nvidia is actually going to get a lot of value out of this deal, which is kind of >> Yeah, they just right day after the announcement, they just nuke the chart and mark itself 5 million.
2:55:27
>> Uh we got a post here from Nat Elias, who I saw in the chat earlier.
2:55:29
I don't know if they're still here.
2:55:31
Says, "The reason you can so easily pull allnighters in college is because you're supposed to be having kids at that age." 25,000 likes.
2:55:39
That is a true true gigabanger. >> Giga banger.
2:55:43
>> You don't see that very very often.
2:55:43
Uh uh >> Tyler, do you think that uh DeepMind solved Navier Stro Stokes?
2:55:48
Did you see this post from Google DeepMind?
2:55:52
We're announcing a major advance in the studies in the study of fluid dynamics with AI.
2:55:56
Uh and then they put the water emoji in a joint paper with researchers from Brown University, NYU, and Stanford.
2:56:04
They they're they're they're announcing an announcement.
2:56:06
Uh they haven't actually announced this. What do you think?
2:56:09
Are you familiar with this problem?
2:56:10
Can you explain the the significance of Navier Stokes?
2:56:12
Because Sam here says, "Don't tell me they figured out Navier Stokes."
2:56:18
>> Um, I don't know that I can do a really good explanation, but I did see in the comments it's like I'm pretty like 90% sure it's not it's like some random math problem. >> Okay.
2:56:26
>> Well, not that interesting.
2:56:26
So, >> well, still, let's let's hear it for random math problems.
2:56:30
We want to solve all the math problems. Come on, let's do it.
2:56:34
Uh, we also have some news in the chat.
2:56:36
Netflix is trying to buy Warner Brothers Discovery.
2:56:37
Uh, we thought uh Ellison was bidding and Netflix might be trying to bid. This is from Puck News.
2:56:45
Thank you to Reggie for uh sharing that news.
2:56:48
Uh hopefully you guys don't figure out that we'll read basically anything you put in the chat because you could put some crazy fake news in there if you if you wanted to.
2:56:55
Uh we we talked about stuff.
2:57:00
>> Paramount's up another almost 6% today. 40% over the last month.
2:57:06
So >> we have one last ad readbasel. com.
2:57:07
Your bezel concier is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch.
2:57:12
You got a series B, you got to pick something up and get bezel.
2:57:15
>> Yeah, you deserve a little treat.
2:57:17
>> And we'll close with this question.
2:57:17
Uh, how long is uh this guy messaged me to quote, "Hop on a quick call."
2:57:23
How long are those supposed to typically last?
2:57:27
Somebody asked you for a quick call.
2:57:27
How long do you think that lasts?
2:57:28
What's >> I mean, it's supposed to be 15, but it always ends up being 30. >> 15 to 30. >> Okay.
2:57:34
Well, Chad GPT says, "Quick call can last anywhere from 5 minutes to 2 to four months.
2:57:39
Some quick calls have even been going on since the early 1900s with ancestors continuing the conversation to loop in key stakeholders and ensure crossgenerational synergies for the warm handoff.
2:57:52
>> But this would be a lot easier to explain over voice mode.
2:57:54
Do you have five minutes to hop on a call?
2:57:55
This is uh clearly photoshopped, but uh absolutely hilarious. >> Hilarious.
2:58:01
I I wasn't I wasn't familiar.
2:58:03
He has access to Is the chat GPT5 instant a real feature? I don't have that.
2:58:08
Mine just says chat GPT5 usually when I go to chat auto who's getting access to >> in this seems like some new feature.
2:58:14
I don't know if it's all Photoshop but uh clearly a very clever Photoshop.
2:58:19
>> You guys should hop on a quick call with the weekend >> with the weekend.
2:58:22
>> Thank you for hanging out with us.
2:58:22
Thank you for joining Sam.
2:58:24
It's been an honor to have you.
2:58:27
>> Uh and uh the progress is tremendous.
2:58:30
And uh everybody in the chat, everybody listening, have a fantastic weekend. Thank you for tuning