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Let me [music] [music] >> You're watching TVPN.

5:02

>> Today is Friday, November 7th, 2025.

5:02

We are live from the TVPN Ultradome, the temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital.

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5:14

Um, the timeline is in turmoil over Sam Alman again.

5:19

Uh, what were we calling it? Backstop gate.

5:25

Backstop gate continues unabated.

5:25

Um, timelines in turmoil turmoil >> over Sam Alman.

5:33

>> Oh, every single day this week every single day this week and last week.

5:35

Uh, it is non-stop open AI. What will happen? Um, is is it over?

5:40

Is it the end of the global economy or will we uh you know uh live to fight another day?

5:46

Um, the main the main point of debate is uh is over you know Sarah Frier's comments that she used the word backs stop.

5:54

She backtracked on her backs stop comment and said, "I wasn't asking for a backs stop of open AI equity.

6:02

I was advocating for this American manufacturing plan."

6:08

Um, then simp Satoshi is going pretty hard.

6:12

He says, "Here's an open AAI document submitted one week ago where they advocate for including data center spend within the American manufacturing umbrella.

6:20

They specifically advocate for federal loan guarantees."

6:23

And S for Satoshi says Sam lied to everyone again.

6:28

>> Let's read the specifics.

6:29

>> Yes, the specifics are AI server production and AI data centers.

6:33

Broadening coverage of the AMIC, which is the American Advanced Manufacturing Investment Credit will lower the effective cost of capital, derisk early investment, and unlock private capital to help alleviate bottlenecks and accelerate the AI build in the United States.

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counter the PRC by d-risking US manufacturing expansion to provide manufacturers with the certainty and capital they need to scale production quickly.

6:58

The federal government should also deploy grants, cost sharing agreements, loans or loan guarantees to expand industrial base [laughter] capacity and resilience.

7:09

Okay, so >> loan guarantees.

7:14

So, so what's happening here is OpenAI a week ago and everyone can go and and read this letter which is publicly available on their website >> is was making the recommendation that the government should effectively treat data centers or AI or token factories >> uh put them in the manufacturing bucket which would qualify them for similar incentives that traditional manufacturing defense tech etc.

7:42

And I don't have a problem with asking the government for a handout.

7:46

I think that that's actually like best practice.

7:48

It's actually in your shareholders responsibility.

7:50

Like you have a fiduciary duty to ask the government for as much help as possible.

7:54

I think that everyone should go to the go to the government right now.

7:57

Hey, if you're if I'm paying 50% tax, how about we take that down to 20%.

8:02

How about we take it down to 0%.

8:03

like you have every incentive to ask your your person in Congress, in your senator, the people in Washington to do everything they can to support your mission.

8:13

This has worked out in the past with Elon and Tesla.

8:15

It didn't work out in the case of Celindra, but like the game on the field is if there are taxpayer dollars that are moving around the board, you want to get those into industries that are aligned with you.

8:29

And so the thing that people are taking issue with is that in the opening of his message yesterday, he said, "We do not want we do not have or want government guarantees for OpenAI data centers." >> Yes.

8:40

>> And that seems to conflict with the message the letter that they wrote a week ago that is still up on their website. >> Yes.

8:49

So if it's if it's uh what is it what loan guarantees to expand industiti just sent the admin a safe to sign uncapped send uncapped note.

9:06

>> You literally can do this now.

9:06

there's a sovereign wealth fund.

9:08

Like like it sounds crazy, but like they're ripping checks.

9:12

Like this is the new economy and uh you know, you can uh you can you can be upset about it, but you also have to understand like what is the game on the field.

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You can always advocate for like we should change the game like we shouldn't be doing this.

9:25

Like I would prefer a more of a free market economy, but in the world where we're not in a free market economy, you want to have your company win, right? That's just rational.

9:37

That's just actually playing the game on the field.

9:39

Now, it is weird optics to talk about the game on the field.

9:43

That's something most people don't like doing.

9:44

And that's very odd because when you say, "Oh, yeah, this is a one-hand washes the other situation."

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Or, "Oh, yeah, this is uh this is a situation where um you know, a backs stop will allow us to be more aggressive."

9:56

That feels like the banker te saying, "Oh yeah, I knew that the government was going to bail us out in '08."

10:03

So I was intentionally underwriting loans that where it was somebody's fifth house and I knew that they couldn't pay it.

10:09

I wasn't asking about their job.

10:10

I wasn't asking about their income.

10:12

I wasn't asking about their assets.

10:14

And so they I I pushed it way further and I made a lot of money and I got out at the top.

10:19

That's what's really upsetting to Americans because the bailout comes in, the backs stop comes in.

10:26

Yes, it makes sense to rationally do the back stop in that moment.

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But if some people get out early and then other people get cooked, that's a really bad optics.

10:37

That's really, really bad optics.

10:39

>> And which is why I kind of expect a lot more of the narrative and to shift towards subsidizing and incentivizing >> and bringing new energy, which directly benefits the labs and and anybody building a data center.

10:52

But it also feels very much in America's uh interest broadly, right?

10:58

And it benefits it it theoretically would benefit the average American too.

11:02

>> We were listening to Ben Thompson this morning.

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Uh it wasn't on reream one live stream 30 plus destinations uh multiream reacher audience wherever they are.

11:09

Uh we were listening to the strategy RSS feed.

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Hopefully then goes live at some point on reream. That'd be awesome.

11:16

>> By the way, I think the chat has discovered that yes, this is a turbo.

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[laughter] Uh this is a one of two other one Simon Puffer.

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Uh but you can see >> it looks great especially with the green background, the color grade.

11:30

The production team is on point today.

11:32

Let's let's hear for the production team.

11:34

Um so uh so yes, I I I agree with you on the on the energy front.

11:41

Um I think Ben Thompson his point today >> and fabs. >> Yeah, and fabs too.

11:47

Yeah, his point today was like was like OpenAI needs to be crystal clear about the position that they're in, which is that they are the hottest company in the world.

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There is unlimited demand for their shares.

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They could be a public company.

12:01

They could go raise more private capital.

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They need to be on the opposite end of the risk curve from the stuff that's like uh no one really wants to invest in an American fab that might lose money for a decade.

12:15

like like there is truly much less appetite for yeah let's go and build a nuclear power plant that might take a decade and who knows like uh when you think about the things that make money in the short term it's SAS right AI for SAS [laughter] uh just go and transform the legacy

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business with some AI sprinkled on top and just start printing money like this is what >> a cons you know people's concern for uh governmentbacked data center lending is that you're lending against chips which have a really fast depreciation schedule. Yep. Yep.

12:50

>> Uh we don't know, right?

12:51

>> There was some push back.

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I I made the comment, hey, maybe that these things don't depreciate as fast.

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Uh there was some there was some push back in the comments.

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Uh I think everyone kind of agrees [laughter] that these things depreciate [clears throat] quickly and so energy infrastructure is the place. >> Yeah.

13:04

And and if you look at uh right now uh uh it's coreweave's uh corporate default swaps are now sitting around 500 basis points. Jumped up dramatically.

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And so this is a this is one of the leading NeoCloud.

13:20

>> Five 500 basis points. Five 5%. Yeah. >> They they jumped 5%.

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>> They jumped they jumped from like I think like two to five. Okay.

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I try to find somewhere in the stack. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

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But sorry I don't mean to like ask particular uh stats but uh clearly like people are are worried about this.

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worried about this. Um >> yeah so so and again this is for a leading Neocloud right we we >> uh semi analysis uh cluster max uh the updated version came out yesterday they're only >> in the platinum >> neocloud in the platin platinum tier >> and people are worried about them right

13:53

y >> uh potentially you know having some uh bankruptcy risk and so if you start doing you know basically government guaranteed data center lending >> y >> you could get in a situation where there's a bunch bunch of new data centers that come online that really don't have a clear pathway to ROI. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

14:11

>> And uh it just incentivizes the entire stack to just get, you know, really exuberant, right?

14:16

And again, going back to Sarah Frier's >> interview on Wednesday, she was uh she felt the market was not exuberant enough.

14:24

Um and I think a lot of people disagree with that, right?

14:27

There's a lot of >> uh there's been a lot of insanity uh this year, silliness.

14:31

Uh maybe we don't need more but we will see.

14:34

The other news that was uh interesting out of today uh the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, William P says Fanny and Freddy eyeing stakes in tech firms.

14:50

Uh Bill P, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency said that Fanny May and Freddy Mack are looking at ways to take equity stakes in technology companies.

14:58

We have some of the biggest technology and public companies offering equity to Fanny and Freddy in exchange for Fanny and Freddy partnering with them in our business.

15:04

Pt said Friday during an interview at a housing conference.

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Uh, we're looking at taking stakes in companies that are willing to give it to us because of how much power Fanny and Freddy have over the whole ecosystem.

15:18

Uh, so >> yeah, this uh this Wall Street Journal event is just so many articles came out of this.

15:26

Uh the Wall Street Journal did a fantastic job bringing a ton of people together.

15:30

This is where that Sarah Frier quote came from.

15:32

Uh it's also where the Coree CEO was on stage.

15:35

You were mentioning Coreeave earlier.

15:37

Um, and the coreweave CEO, the headline in the Wall Street Journal is coreweave CEO plays down concerns about AI spending bubble and the quote is from Michael, uh, if you're building something that accelerates the economy and has fundamental value to the world, the world will find ways to finance an enormous amount of business.

15:55

Um, and he went on and said if the economy doubles in size, it's not a lot of money to build all those data centers.

16:02

And so there's a lot of folks to uh you know addressing bubble concerns right now.

16:07

He says it's very hard for me to worry about a bubble as one of the narratives when you have buyers of infrastructure that are changing the econ the economics of their company.

16:17

They are building the future.

16:18

And so if you are uh if if the products are are you know effective in and in in growing the economy then all of the investment is worth it.

16:26

Uh there's a fascinating mansion story we should get to that's actually related to this. Good.

16:31

Um, so there is a before we do, let me tell you about Privy.

16:35

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16:44

Did you get a whole new soundboard?

16:45

What's going on with the soundboard? >> I did. Thank you. >> Wait, really?

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Like they swapped them all out.

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>> Do you still have the horse?

16:50

>> I still got all the classics.

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Working with some new material.

16:53

>> Working with some new material.

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[laughter] >> I like the sheesh.

16:55

Uh, can we get the vine boom on there? Is that on there yet? >> Uh, I don't know. >> The boom. The thud. That's a big one.

17:00

Uh anyway, Casa Encantada is a 1930s estate in Los Angeles.

17:07

It's one of the most important homes in the 20th of the century.

17:12

In 2023, it was also briefly the most expensive home for sale in the United States with an ambitious act asking price of $250 million. This is in Bair.

17:21

Uh so it's a Bair property.

17:21

Uh it's uh was sold in the foreclosure auction after the death of its longtime owner, financeier Gary Winnick. So it's an 8. 5 acre property.

17:33

He bought it in 2000 for $94 million.

17:36

He bought it in the year 2000. >> No way.

17:41

>> Do you know who this guy is? >> Uh Gary Winnick.

17:45

>> He had something to do with the the last bub.

17:48

>> He did have something to do with the last bub.

17:50

It's one of the craziest stories.

17:53

So uh >> is it uh >> to satisfy the debt which has now grown blah blah blah blah blah.

17:58

So so basically like it's a 40,000 square foot house uh built in the 1930s counts hotelier uh Conrad Hilton and Dole Food billionaire David Murdoch among its former owners.

18:11

It's located right next to the Bair Country Club Golf Course.

18:13

It has a se it's seven bedrooms, has a swimming pool, tennis court. Uh it's awesome.

18:20

Anyway, Gary is perhaps best known as the founder of Global Crossing, which built fiber optic cable, a fiber optic cable network across the world.

18:32

The company made him a billionaire, but it imploded.

18:36

>> Did they have a little bit of dark Did they have a little bit of dark fiber?

18:39

>> Little bit of dark fiber.

18:40

>> Uh imploded in the early 2000s under the weight of massive debt.

18:43

Kasa in Incantada, Gary's primary home went on the market in June of 2023, five months before his death.

18:51

Now it's asking 190 million.

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And they kind of move on from there.

18:54

But uh is there >> Crossing was he was somewhat of an of a of a global businessman.

19:00

He was uh the headquarters were in Bermuda. >> You know this? >> I didn't know that. >> I wonder why. I wonder why.

19:06

Um, I mean it it might literally be because it it it insulates the assets in America.

19:11

Like like that is one thing that um uh you can do if you don't want uh to have to give up your lovely home post bankruptcy.

19:21

Um you want to be able to get liquidity before the bubble pops. That's the lesson here.

19:26

Sell sell the shares before the top. Uh buy low, sell high.

19:31

That's the that's the phrase that we that we uh live by here.

19:33

Uh, was there anything else, Tyler, that came out of your deep research report on Gary Winnick? >> Did you get a chance? >> I mean, so let's see.

19:44

>> He also started um Pacific Capital Group in 1985. >> Oh, wow.

19:49

>> That was kind of the precursor.

19:50

>> So, he was set up to to actually marshall all the debt to do the big >> He had been he had been a global businessman for a while before this. >> Okay. >> Nice.

19:58

>> Let's give it up for global businessmen. >> Let's give it up.

20:00

Let's give it [applause] >> uh Yeah. What? >> Wild wild wild story.

20:06

>> We're hyper hyper local businessmen.

20:06

We we like to do our business right here in the Ultra Dome.

20:12

But >> we do >> got to give it up for them.

20:15

>> Also in the mansion section, which we should continue on.

20:17

Uh but first, let me tell you about Cognition, the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer.

20:20

Uh crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team.

20:24

Uh you have a new neighbor, Jordy.

20:27

>> You have a new neighbor.

20:27

So Tom Petty apparently lived in your neighborhood in Malibu, California.

20:31

Uh, the late Free Fallen rocker had a personal music studio. >> Some deep lore. >> Please. >> I saw Tom Petty.

20:40

I believe it was the first ever >> uh who headlined the first ever Outside Lands.

20:50

>> Was the first or second?

20:53

>> He was living in Malibu in a 11.

20:53

2 $2 million house, 8,744 square feet, seven bedrooms, has a music studio.

21:03

Um, the buyer is Steven Slade Tien, a psychoanalyst and author, according to people with knowledge of the deal.

21:12

Tienne didn't respond for a request for comment.

21:15

I wonder if he if he'd want to, you know, get beer sometime, hang out, maybe go surfing, go for a walk on the beach.

21:21

We should reach out to him for com. Okay.

21:23

So, uh, the I was at the first ever Outside Lands. >> Really? How old are you?

21:29

I thought I thought you were >> It was It was my basically the first ever like con major concert experience. >> I didn't realize.

21:36

Yeah, that's uh Tom Petty headlined uh on Saturday.

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This was in August of 2008.

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>> And that was my first time smelling cannabis.

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And I kept I was there with my my uh my friend and his parents.

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And I kept asking like his friend's parents like what is that stinky smell?

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So stinky every we can't we can't get away from it.

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>> And uh very very memorable. >> Very memorable. >> That's amazing.

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Uh do you know where this is? Uh 2.

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6 acres above Escondido Beach. Is that close to you? >> Beach area.

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>> It's a a few minutes away, but um it's a >> gated property.

22:18

>> Escandido Beach is the most underrated beach.

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It was Petty's home decades before his death in 2017.

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Lead singer of the Heartbreakers purchased the property for about 3. 75 million in 1998.

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>> Uh Petty turned his guest house into his personal music studio with soundproof rooms for recording music.

22:34

And uh said Levi Freeman who's putting up there's a one-bedroom guest guest suite.

22:39

Seems like a very nice star. He was from Florida.

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He shunned the spotlight offstage.

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He's a member of the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

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best known for songs like American Girl and I Won't Back Down.

22:52

Um, what a what a lovely little house.

22:56

Well, uh, that's always fun.

22:58

Anyway, we should move on to our, uh, top story.

23:00

Should we should we do you want to go through the Elon the Elon pay package thing a little bit?

23:04

I had two questions for you on that and then we can go into our Mag 7 review.

23:07

Is that Does that sound good? >> Let's Let's do it. >> Okay.

23:10

First, let me tell you about Figma.

23:13

Think bigger, build faster.

23:13

Figma helps design and development teams build great products together.

23:16

Um I I I really enjoy this uh graphic package we got. This is great.

23:21

Um so uh Elon's trillion dollar pay package is done. It's signed. It's approved.

23:30

I'm sure it will be contested in the courts.

23:33

It's always contested in the courts.

23:33

But uh the Wall Street Journal has a very nice little breakdown of how it works.

23:40

They have a nice little infographic here I can share.

23:41

Um, and it kind of shows >> this is this is what technology podcasting is all that holding. >> Pull that up. Pull that newspaper. >> Yeah. Yeah.

23:52

So, basically, uh, uh, Elon could get one trillion in Tesla's stock.

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Um, if he hits all these different tanches.

24:01

And so, it's actually not that many shares.

24:04

So he he he's worth half a trillion now, but he also owns 414 million Tesla shares outright.

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Got another award in 2018 of 300 million shares.

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And this next award is 424 million across 12 tanch tranches.

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So it's not like they're giving him four time twice as much as he already has.

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They're just kind of giving him a little like like basically what he already had.

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They're giving him the same amount again.

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And there's a bunch of things that he has to do.

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He has to get the market cap really really high.

24:36

And then there's also these uh like qualitative operational goals or I guess they're quantitative but uh 50 billion in Ebida, 20 million cars delivered, 1 million robots sold, 1 million robo taxis in operation, 10 million full self-driving subscription.

24:51

Now, some of those are obviously more gameable than others.

24:55

What's the definition of a robot?

24:55

If he comes out with a really cheap robot and he sells a bunch of those because it's more of a toy, does that really fulfill the goal?

25:01

or like what's the ver what's the you know million robo taxis in operation?

25:05

What's the definition of a robo tax?

25:07

>> Qualifies is a Tesla that is enabled >> and I turn on FSD and my friend rides in it for one day.

25:13

>> Is there anything for actual rides?

25:16

>> Uh there's there's 10 million full self-driving subscriptions. >> Yeah.

25:20

>> And so some some of these are more gameable than others, but the market really isn't.

25:24

>> How many full self self-driving subscriptions are there today?

25:26

They >> I saw I I looked that up.

25:28

It's somewhere between like 1 and 3 million right now.

25:32

So, he has to he definitely has to like triple the size at least.

25:33

Um, robo taxis obviously goes from like zero to 1 million because there's barely any on the on the road.

25:39

He hasn't sold any robots.

25:41

So, a million would be entirely new robots.

25:42

Uh, he's obviously delivering a lot of cars.

25:44

And on the IBIDA front, 50 billion in Ebida company did like 13 last year.

25:48

So, that's that's a huge increase in Ibida.

25:50

I mean, 50 billion in Ebida is a lot of money, but he's, you know, it's not it's not 20x where he is right now.

25:57

And neither is the market cap like he's he only has to take the market cap to 8.

26:00

5 trillion and Tesla is already worth a trillion.

26:03

So um it's it's it's within you know striking distance.

26:07

Uh the market the market cap is now around 1. 5 trillion actually.

26:09

So uh my two questions uh were one uh like it's going to be weird to live in the world of the trillionaire like but we are getting close like that's going to happen not just within our lifetime like definitely within the next decade.

26:24

this sets him up to be the first one, but it's going to happen.

26:27

Um, and I I wonder how that's going to reshape our our culture, like the world in America, because um when I had this I had this um I had this realization that when billionaires became so prevalent and prominent, there was a lot of heat that was taken off the millionaire.

26:47

>> Like if you're just like a guy Yeah. I have an H.

26:50

>> Millionaires are the heat shield. >> Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. Like Yeah. I'm a millionaire. I have a boat.

26:53

I go to Bass Pro shops, but like I'm not getting protested because I have a million dollars in my house and boat and practice.

27:02

>> One out of 10 Americans is a >> Yeah. Yeah.

27:04

So, the millionaire became more accessible and the billionaire became the thing that the society uh scapegoats for all the problems. >> Approximately 9. 4 to 9.

27:12

5% of American adults are millionaires. >> Yeah.

27:17

Um, and but uh my question was what do you like like what happens to the billionaire when trillionaires come in?

27:27

Because you know like Bernie Sanders and the there's a whole crew that say like billionaires shouldn't exist.

27:31

Every billionaire is a policy failure.

27:33

Well like what happens when you have to say like well like trillionaires are the real policy failure but billionaires are also the policy failure and billionaires were like kind of okay with but it's not great.

27:43

It's like it becomes much more complicated, but at the same time, it it definitely like if Elon is the only trillionaire, it's going to be really really easy to target him and be like, he's bad. He's a trillionaire.

27:53

>> Get any more targeted? >> I don't know.

27:54

Yeah, maybe maxed it out already.

27:56

Uh, but I thought that was interesting.

27:58

And then the flip side was what does this mean for other companies?

28:02

Uh, what does it mean for Sam Alman at OpenAI?

28:04

Can he run a similar playbook?

28:07

It's clear that he had a ton of soft power during the OpenAI coup.

28:09

Could he go to the OpenAI forprofit board and say, "Hey, if if OpenAI IPOs at two trillion, I want 20%."

28:18

If OpenAI moons to 10 trillion, I want 50%.

28:22

Like, how extreme can Sam get?

28:25

We We know that Sam runs a bit of an Elon playbook.

28:28

They were in business together.

28:30

They co-founded OpenAI together, so clearly they learned from each other.

28:33

Um, I wonder what o what Sam Alman can do similarly.

28:39

And then I also wonder what what will happen at the garden variety unicorn.

28:43

If you're just the CEO of a $5 billion company and you're just kind of hanging out there and you say like, "Yeah, I I had 30% of the company when I started.

28:54

I've been diluted down to five or 10.

28:55

Uh but I like this company and I want to get it up."

28:58

Like what if what if I say, "Hey, could could it could that could I go to the board and say, "Okay, we're at five billion now.

29:04

Now, if I get us to 50, will you double my equity position?

29:09

And how would shareholders treat that?

29:11

How would Sequoia treat that or Founders Fund or Kleiner or A16Z, like how would the growth stage venture companies, the venture capital firms feel about that?

29:21

So, I don't know any reaction that stuff.

29:23

>> I think there's a sentiment like there's, you know, any any venturebacked founder is like going to be hyperconscious of delusion, right?

29:33

There's a sense that it's like one way. Yes. >> Right.

29:35

It just goes down and down and down and down.

29:38

>> And I think the right way for founders to think about that is like, okay, you're not actually like no one's taking your shares unless you decide to sell them.

29:45

Your job is just to make the share price go up.

29:47

And there's going to be more shares issued over time.

29:49

But if you just make the share price go up forever, it doesn't really matter.

29:54

But then there's also you can also buy back, you can also, you know, you know, get >> buy back like Drew H.

30:00

sell all your shares and then [clears throat] give more share create new shares if you want to get your percentage ownership way down. >> Yeah.

30:07

Yeah, >> like if you want to go to >> more like [laughter] >> if you want to bail, >> I mean, yeah, we we we need to do we need to do uh uh an analysis of the most diluted CEOs in the public market because if you look at some of the IPOs from the last 10 years, like some of the guys that are still hanging around running these companies have have sold out, >> you know, sold down so much of and this is what makes Larry so >> admirable, right?

30:32

>> admirable, right? because just buy back buy back buy back and and and he's the second richest person 300 billion it's remarkable um >> by the way I think Oracle is like fully roundt tripped now from >> it happens well uh what about the so so yeah I mean the question is like on what

30:51

time scale do you think this happens like um Jordy do you think we'd actually hear the story of somebody a CEO founder maybe passed their vesting cliff maybe one of their co-founders has left because I I think about that a lot where it's like, okay, yeah, there were like there were like two or three people. They were basically equal. They did

31:08

They were basically equal.

31:08

They did their full like four-year earnout, but then there's clearly one that's like still there grinding for the next decade like they kind of do deserve more. It's not that crazy.

31:18

Um, and yes, there is the just the stock buyback, don't sell, but is there a world where someone like Drew Hston goes to the board and just says like, I think I can 5x this and I want the pay package to do it and I'm going to be in the office nonstop and I'm going to go >> I think that happens all the time. >> Not to this degree. No way. >> Not okay. Not Not to that degree. >> Yeah.

31:41

No, not even the headline number.

31:43

Not even the headline number.

31:43

just just in this sense of like we're going to dilute everyone like five or 10% if this happens. Like a trillion on 8.

31:49

5 is is serious dilution for the rest of the shareholders. But if I'm holding at 1.

31:54

5 trillion and I'm like you're going to take me to 8.

31:58

5 trillion like I'm totally in for 10% dilution, you're going to 5x my shares. Like I'm in.

32:03

But what's interesting is that we just haven't seen other CEOs pull that from the Elon playbook and say this is why I was it uh was it Kimble or someone else was saying like >> very almost no other CEOs would take a deal like this because it's so ambitious. >> Yep.

32:20

>> And so I think it's I think it's healthy and I think people are going to people are offended by the headline number. Yeah.

32:26

So I mean obviously I'm I'm very pro this.

32:29

I think we're all pro this.

32:30

That's not the that's not the discussion.

32:31

The the question is like how widespread does this become?

32:34

Does it become mimemetic? Is it like every CEO?

32:38

Because there's a lot of people that are just like, "Oh, Elon did it this way.

32:39

I want to do it that way."

32:41

You know, and I'm wondering how much it actually spreads.

32:44

Anyway, we'll have to keep monitoring it.

32:45

Uh we'll also have to tell you about Vanta.

32:47

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32:53

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33:03

Um, what else is in the timeline?

33:05

There's so much in the timeline.

33:06

Should we do our uh our mega cycle review? >> Let's do it.

33:11

Um, >> we got the laser pointer.

33:13

>> We got the laser pointer.

33:13

Our our good friend Tyler Cosgrove has put together a slide deck for us that tries to help map the Mag 7. Really?

33:23

I call it the TVPN top 10. The top 10.

33:28

>> Well, technically nine. >> There's nine. >> Well, no. No. No. There are 10. There's 10. >> There's 10.

33:31

Yeah, [laughter] >> we'll see.

33:33

Well, one of them maybe is shouldn't be there. >> No, no, no, no, no.

33:36

There's actually 10 cuz it's the Mag 7. >> Oracle. I forgot Oracle. >> Yes, you did.

33:41

So, so it is it is the TBPN top 10.

33:42

Uh the 10 most important companies in AI loosely.

33:46

Um the Mag 7 plus a few bonus ones.

33:50

Uh, and we're gonna try and go through and look, you're you're a horse. You're a horse, man.

33:58

>> So, we're gonna try and go through the various companies and rank them based on how AGI pilled they are and how much they need AGI. Is that right? >> Uh, yeah.

34:07

Basically, so so let let's pull up the the actual scales. There's two axes.

34:11

>> Um, >> let's go to the next slide.

34:13

>> So, so basically on the horizontal we have how AGI pilled they are.

34:14

So, I feel like that's fairly self-explanatory.

34:16

You kind of believe that AI will become something like uh it can produce the the median economic output of a person. >> Yes.

34:24

Um >> and and there's a few different ways to understand if somebody uh believes in AGI.

34:30

It could be the rhetoric of the CEO or the founder.

34:32

It could be the actions of the company like they're just speak louder than >> actions.

34:38

[laughter] Uh and uh is is there anything else that could that could lead someone to to show that they believe in AGI?

34:46

I guess it's mostly just the actions and the and and the words, right?

34:51

>> I mean those are the main things that you can kind of do as a person say or do things. Yeah. >> We well we have it.

34:54

We will be judging them by both their actions and their words. >> Yeah.

34:58

So so then on the vertical axis we have uh how much they need AGI.

35:00

So I think this is a maybe a little harder.

35:02

I so I want to qualify this. Yeah.

35:04

So um I mean this doesn't necessarily believe that you have this kind of sentient you know AI that's as good as a person but I think it more so in this context just means that AI will continue to become more and more economically valuable. >> Yes.

35:19

>> To where you can kind of sustain um you know building more and more data centers you can do more and more capex you know. >> Yeah.

35:25

There's a little bit of like how much will this company be transformed if the AI wave plays out well?

35:32

>> The AI doesn't play it play out well. How chopped are they?

35:34

How cooked are theyact framework?

35:38

Um yes and then also yeah if we if we flash forward nothing really changes.

35:42

Total plateau uh total decline in in token generation or something I is is the business uh just continuing business as usual. Okay. So who are we starting?

35:53

>> Let's start uh with Sam Alman. >> Okay.

35:54

Sam Alman where is he on that?

35:54

So Sam Alman I think this is >> uh pretty reasonable spot.

35:59

He believes in AGI right?

36:01

He he runs kind of the biggest AI company. He also needs AGI.

36:05

Uh because if you imagine that um you know if the models stagnate, right, they they have a lot of capex they need to fulfill.

36:11

If models stagnate, like what are they going to do?

36:14

Maybe they can maybe the margins somehow work out, but you're probably not in a good spot if if models >> get worse or people start using AI less if you're saying one.

36:22

>> Um but he's also not, you know, in the top top corner. >> Okay. >> Right.

36:27

And I think this is you can justify this through a lot of open actions.

36:30

Um, you see stuff like Sora, you see maybe the erotica.

36:32

This is not very >> Who's who's running?

36:36

>> I'm running the laser pointer and I'm I'm maybe put him down here. >> Okay, explain that. Explain that.

36:43

>> I think that more and more, at least in the short term, OpenAI looks like >> a hyperscaler. Mhm.

36:50

>> They're kind of a junior hyperscaler >> and I think their actions are more, you know, I I think that open AI, >> a lot of people, you know, want to say that they're they're bearish on on Open AI at the current levels, >> but ultimately when you look at how their business is evolving, >> they seem to me like they'd be fine if the models plateaued. >> Yes.

37:11

But uh yeah, I I I I feel like the I feel like the mood on the timeline was much more slide Sam to the left doesn't believe in AGI.

37:19

There was that post about like if if if OpenAI really believed in AGI, they wouldn't be doing Sora or they wouldn't be doing the erotica thing.

37:27

Like all of those were very much like needs it but it but kind of accepts that it's not coming and so stopped believing it.

37:35

I think in response to Jordy I think um because it's not like this the vertical axis is also just about like if it's going to continue to be economically uh you know economically useful.

37:45

So if people just stop using AI in general >> or or like people if the kind of >> uh you know revenue stops accelerating or any of this stuff I think open eye will be in a bad spot regardless of the models like actually getting much better >> like if they just make the models much more efficient to run you could say that's not very like agi pilling because the models aren't getting a lot better. Yeah.

38:06

>> Um, but that's still like >> but I'm just saying like if there was no more progress at all like we never got a new model from any of the labs.

38:15

>> I think that OpenAI would add ads, they would add commerce, they would >> Yeah.

38:21

So they might be fine without AGI.

38:22

>> They would make agents a lot better.

38:24

>> But but I mean the trillion enterprise the 1.

38:28

4 4 trillion in commitments.

38:28

Like that is hard to justify if it's just the business today just growing like it's growing because it's just like it's good.

38:38

No, no crazy breakthroughs.

38:38

Like just you >> Yeah, but they're they're they're laying out the bull case.

38:44

>> They're playing they're playing >> it's crazy.

38:45

You're laying out the bullcase saying, "Oh, if they just add ads, they're going to be able to hit the 1. 4 trillion. No problem."

38:52

>> That's >> I'm not saying I'm not saying they they can pull back on a lot of these commitments.

38:56

They don't like I don't think these are like going to end up being like >> real liabilities.

39:01

The business is just cooked.

39:04

They can't hit them, right?

39:04

So, >> I'm just saying like >> I think there's a shot they have.

39:08

They could, >> you know, when when they talk about >> having success in consumer electronics, right, which is something you talked about yesterday.

39:18

>> Like they don't need like I I I think they can probably build a really cool device.

39:24

Maybe it could be competitive with, you know, if if there's >> if if it can be at all competitive with an iPhone like that, they could be fine without AGI, right?

39:34

>> We're also getting into let's get some other people on the board so that we can see where >> Yeah, I think it's useful to be relative because these are not quantitative numbers.

39:43

>> So, uh, next we have Daario.

39:43

Okay, >> so Daario is up here.

39:44

So, [laughter] I I think Daario is kind of when you listen to what Daario is saying, he is, >> you know, he's extremely AGI pilled, right?

39:53

He he this is kind of the reason why he's he's so anti-China, right?

39:58

Because he sees it as an actual race.

40:00

This is going to superelligence weapons.

40:02

>> It is a national, you know, security. Totally.

40:05

>> It's a problem if China gets there first.

40:06

>> Wait, what is that new sound cue?

40:08

>> I don't think Tyler has sound effect. >> What is it? >> UAV online. >> UAV online.

40:12

Okay, [laughter] I like that. We got This is the UAV.

40:13

We should give this UAV aesthetics for sure. This is good. Okay, continue.

40:17

And but there's also a sense that he needs AGI because um if if AI stops becoming if it stops growing as fast and you imagine that things kind of settle where they are now, >> OpenAI is definitely in the lead.

40:30

So you you need a lot of continued growth for for Anthropic to keep uh kind of making sense economically, I think. >> Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Sure.

40:37

Um >> who else is on here?

40:40

>> So I think next is uh Larry. >> Larry Larry.

40:44

>> Larry's in kind of an interesting spot here.

40:46

So this is kind of a weird place to be where you don't believe in AGI but you need it. >> Okay.

40:51

>> How did he wind up there?

40:51

[laughter] >> So I I think >> you're probably wondering how I ended up in this corner.

40:56

>> Record scratch freeze frame.

40:57

>> So So I I think this is how you factor in um there's kind of the personal rhetoric and then there's the actions of his company. Sure.

41:03

>> So when you listen to Eric uh to to Larry speak, >> he doesn't seem the type that is believes in some kind of super intelligent god that that is going to come that's going to you know >> birth this new thing and humanity will will rise.

41:15

But then you look at Oracle.

41:18

>> Has anyone found his less wrong username? Is he on there? Yeah.

41:19

I I don't think you know I don't think Larry's reading GRE. >> Okay. Got it.

41:25

>> Um >> but then but they are >> you know they they need AI to work, right?

41:33

[laughter] They are >> maybe they're covering up a little too much >> or maybe not enough depending on how AID you are, but you know it's not very AGI pled. So Exactly.

41:42

>> It's it's kind of hard to square but it's a bold bet. Yeah.

41:43

This is This is a unique spot.

41:45

I think this is a unique spot.

41:48

>> He's He's off the grid. Okay. Uh who's next?

41:51

>> So, let's see who's next. Who Who did I Okay. >> Okay.

41:54

>> I think this is a fairly regional spot. Yeah.

41:56

>> Um >> obviously there's, you know, there's some sense where he's slightly AGI pilled or maybe more than slightly.

42:02

>> He believes in the power of the technology. >> Yeah.

42:03

I mean, he's very early on open AI.

42:05

He he thinks that AI in general will become >> very useful, but maybe it won't become, >> you know, super intelligent.

42:11

Maybe it's not going to replace every person. It's just a useful tool.

42:13

The quote I always go back to is him saying like my definition of AGI is just greater economic growth.

42:19

So show me the economic numbers and that will be it's like it's a it's a very practical definition.

42:26

>> I think people see him as very reasonable.

42:28

He's not getting over skis. >> Yeah. I like him.

42:29

I like him in the center of the grid somewhere.

42:31

That that seems like a real >> he's also um you know if if AI doesn't work out >> Yeah.

42:38

>> I think Microsoft is in a very good spot.

42:39

>> It's going to stick around.

42:40

>> Um you know they're not crazy over investing in open AI.

42:42

They have a nice >> Yeah, >> they'll write some code.

42:46

>> If open eye works out, he'll do very well.

42:48

If they don't work out, I think he's also he's doing quite well. >> He's hedged. The man's hedged.

42:52

>> He's happy to be a leaser.

42:53

>> Yeah, that's a good quote, too. Okay. >> Yeah. Yeah.

42:56

You wouldn't be leasing if you were super AGI pilled, right?

42:57

You're hoovering up everything.

42:59

You keeping it all for yourself. >> Exactly.

43:01

I think let's actually talk about that with I think it's Jensen next. >> Okay. Yes, Jensen.

43:06

>> So, Jensen, >> he doesn't believe in AGI.

43:07

He's the whole reason why we're here. Explain that.

43:10

>> So, yeah, this is maybe my personal take.

43:12

If Jensen was very IGI pled. >> Yes.

43:15

>> I mean, he is the the kind of >> he he's the rock on which this all is built on. He has the chips.

43:19

If he was AGI pled, he would not be giving out those chips.

43:22

He would keep them all to himself and he would be training his own model. >> Okay.

43:26

>> So, that's why I think he's he's more on the doesn't believe in AGI side.

43:28

Uh but if there's any kind of downturn in the AI, >> could you put could you put Sam like potentially closer in this direction too because he's talking about getting into the >> like comput reselling for sure.

43:43

>> So like if there's so much demand >> Yeah. Yeah.

43:45

>> and the models progressing so quickly, wouldn't you want to just hold on to all all that >> comput I think this would also be interesting to see over time like Sam has definitely shifted uh leftwards over time. >> He's moving. He's moving.

43:56

>> He's moving. He's moving. Basically this summer you've seen a lot of the actions of open AAI they seem less and less AGI >> and pretty much everyone has been like moving the AGI timelines outward which is which you could transform into no longer believing in a AGI it's more just

44:10

like the timelines have gotten longer this year broadly pretty much everyone up timelines there was a new blog post yesterday it was basically AI 2027 there was a new one it was AI uh 2032 so it's basically >> the same team >> uh different team but the the team of AI 2027 was promoting it. >> Did Yeah. AI AI 27uh 2027 should be like >> Did Yeah.

44:29

AI AI 27uh 2027 should be like it was actually AI 3027. >> Typo AI 3027.

44:40

>> We couldn't get that domain.

44:42

>> We [laughter] were just off by a thousand years. >> Yeah.

44:44

But there's definitely the sense where if if AI there's a downturn, Jensen the stock is going to go down. >> Yeah.

44:50

>> But it's not going to go down as far as as Larry, right?

44:51

Because they're they're [laughter] still not on they don't have insane.

44:55

>> It's not financial advice. Yes.

44:55

You know, they don't have, you know, completely unreasonable capex. They're not levered up. >> Sure, sure. Sure. >> That I know of. >> Oh, yeah.

45:03

Their Zcore is through the roof.

45:05

>> Their man Zore is Zcore is through the roof.

45:08

>> They're looking pretty safe. >> Yes. >> Um, okay. Let's see the next one. >> Uh, I believe. Okay. Sundar.

45:13

>> Sundar believes in AGI more than Satcha, you think? >> Yeah.

45:16

Well, I I think you can see this um in kind of they were even earlier in some sense than Satia, right? With with Deep Mind. Yeah.

45:24

>> Um so, uh I think AI has played a fairly big part in the Google story very recently.

45:30

>> Um they've always I think basically for the past 10 years they've been trying to get into AI.

45:33

Maybe their actions didn't actually do much but you know they were the transformer paper.

45:36

They >> you know applied AI like they're actually applying >> they self-driving cars discovery and core Google search is just an AI product.

45:46

It's just an index on information.

45:47

They're organizing the >> also I mean compared to Satia I mean Gemini is a frontier model. Totally.

45:52

>> Uh Gemini 3 is supposed to be this incredible model. Everyone's very excited.

45:55

Satcha is not Microsoft is not trending their own base model yet. >> Yeah.

45:59

And and also like it's like there is a little bit of like if you really believe in AGI the actions that we see are you like squirming and being I got to get in.

46:09

I I it doesn't matter if I'm 1% behind or 10% behind or 80% behind. I got to get in.

46:15

And I think we know someone who's doing just that.

46:17

Gabe in the chat says, "Is this AGI or AG1 from Athletic Greens [laughter] like needs needs AG1?" >> Needs AG1.

46:26

>> Mine without AG1 believes in AG1.

46:26

Now, we're the only podcast that is not partnered with AG1.

46:32

[laughter] >> But we do like green. Green is our hero color.

46:37

Let's go to the next person. >> Okay.

46:38

But also before that, um I I think Sundar is also definitely below this line because uh you know, Google has been doing very well.

46:45

Uh AI was at at first I mean it people thought of AI as like oh this is going to this is going to destroy Google. This is bad for Google.

46:52

So if AI doesn't work then Google's just in the spot they were before which is doing very well.

46:55

If AI does work then um I mean Gemini is one of the best models they'll do very well too.

47:02

>> Speaking of Gemini, Google AI Studio create an AI powered app faster than ever.

47:06

Gemini understands the capabilities you need and automatically wires them up for you. Get started at a. studiobuild. Yeah. Go continue. >> Okay.

47:15

So I I think uh yeah next is Zuck. >> Yes.

47:18

>> So So Zuck is also kind of in an interesting spot. Yes.

47:20

Um I think >> I think Zuck is actually someone who has shifted uh rightward. >> It's fascinating. >> Yeah.

47:26

You've seen this um basic I mean for a while >> traveling he's been traveling. >> Yes. >> Yeah.

47:31

So for a while he was doing open source which in some sense it's very AGI pilling because you know you're building you're training a model right?

47:38

It's like you're you're moving the the frontier forward, but it's also it's open source, which you can kind of think of as being you're trying to commoditize everything.

47:46

Um, you don't think that there's going to be some super intelligence that will take all the value that you need to hold on to.

47:51

You can kind of give it out. Yep.

47:52

>> Uh, and now he's kind of moved towards closed source.

47:54

We're going to get the best people.

47:56

We're going to train the best model.

47:57

>> It felt like Zuck was sort of like, oh yeah, AI, like it's this cool thing.

48:00

I'm going to check the box. I got my team.

48:04

We did this fun little side project.

48:06

It's this uh open- source model.

48:06

We kind of found our own like little lane, but we're not like competing in the big cosmic battle between OpenAI, Anthropic, uh, Deep Mind, like >> Well, don't do Do you think that was just a counterposition to way to w like try to win the AI war?

48:23

Go say, "Hey, we're just going to try to commod commodify this market Chinese approach."

48:30

>> Yeah, commoditizing your is a good strategy.

48:33

>> Yeah, that makes sense.

48:33

And then maybe you could say that, oh, once the Chinese have have been getting better, he can kind of step out of that position. >> Sure.

48:38

>> And he's moved towards closed source. >> Yeah.

48:40

But now it feels like he's way way going way harder on the AGI vision, paying up for it, investing so much money in it.

48:48

Uh, you know, it's like >> and depending on how much he invests, you could see him neat pushing [laughter] up.

48:56

>> But right now, but right now, the business is just insane.

48:58

It's so phenomenal that even if he winds up spending all this money and you know they don't even get a frontier model and like all the all the the researchers are like yeah we didn't discover anything and we're just gone like the business is fine because it's such a behemoth so that's why he's having after earnings they took a fairly big hit so maybe he should be a little bit higher.

49:19

Yeah, maybe a little bit.

49:21

>> Meta Broadley is still a very safe play if if AI doesn't work out.

49:24

>> And it was the same thing during the metaverse.

49:25

It was like he believed in the metaverse, he invested in the metaverse, but he never needed the metaverse.

49:30

And so after the stock sold off like crazy, it went right back up because everyone realized, wait, >> he's also raising debt off the balance sheet, which would kind of could push him up into this zone, right?

49:40

If if he's like, you know, if you're worried about why why don't you just carry it yourself?

49:46

Why don't you carry it yourself?

49:48

What do you what do you you believe in AGI?

49:51

>> Just just uh let it ride. >> Yeah, that's true.

49:54

>> Okay, who else are we missing?

49:55

>> Okay, so we have most of the mag seven now >> is is Jasse. Oh, Elon. Elon. >> Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Elon.

49:59

So Elon uh I mean he's been AGI pill I think for a very long time. >> Super AGI pill. I agree with that.

50:06

>> Open co-founder even before that he I think he was fairly big in the in the safety space. Totally.

50:09

You see him even on on Joe Rogan.

50:11

He was talking about AI safety.

50:13

He still believes he hasn't backed off and AI safety is important because it's going to become super intelligent.

50:17

It's going to take over the world. We need to be safe. >> Totally. >> Um, >> yeah.

50:20

Even this was part of the dialogue around the new comp package, wanting the the voting power to be able to be part of securing his robot army. >> Oh, yeah. Interesting. >> Yeah.

50:31

I I think robots are are very underrepresented on this board. Totally.

50:36

And Elon is kind of the the main player in that space right now. >> Yeah.

50:39

So, he talked yesterday about uh about uh humanoids being sort of an infinite money glitch.

50:45

And I feel like you kind of need uh AGI in order to kind of unlock the the infinite money uh glitch. >> Yes.

50:54

But at the same time very strong core business. The cars don't need AGI.

50:59

The rockets don't need AGI.

50:59

Starlink doesn't need AGI.

51:01

So he So he's so he's not entirely indexed on it in the way the Foundation Labs are. Right. >> Yeah.

51:07

I mean there's definitely a significant part of the Tesla market cap that is basically betting on robots. Totally.

51:13

Totally. But there's also a big part of it that's just >> but that's why he's in he's in the middle of the needs are fine without it's like everything is needs >> yeah but that's just one piece of the >> AGI more than >> SpaceX >> SpaceX >> yeah SpaceX is very seems very uncorrelated with the AI

51:30

>> totally totally totally >> unless you have the data >> he's happy to be a telecom Baron [laughter] >> he's happy to yeah he's happy to be the new Verizon uh who else is >> okay so I believe now is Andy Jasse >> Jasse yeah so Um he is I I think broadly does not believe in AGI although he you know fairly major stake in anthropic. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

51:50

>> Uh which maybe is very AI but but they have not >> he's hedging with anthropic. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

51:54

I think that's basically what you can say.

51:56

He doesn't seem >> at all worried about kind of the core business AWS seems to be >> Google building their position in anthropic.

52:03

I saw some headline about that. That was wild.

52:05

Imagine like Sundar such a beast.

52:08

such a beast. and Sacha really both of them they just have huge stakes >> broadly Andy Jesse seems very quantitative he's focused on the numbers realistic he's not making these you know grandio statements about the future of of intelligence or what humanity is

52:23

going to be like >> yeah when you look at the AWS earnings it feels like they invest when the demand shows up and they build data centers when there is demand and they they are not in the business of of doing you know a 10-year hypothetical sci-fi forecast based on breakthrough. >> So Ben Thompson on the recent Sharp

52:40

>> So Ben Thompson on the recent Sharp Tech, we were listening to it on the way in.

52:44

He was talking about how >> uh Amazon has repeatedly said, "Hey, we're we're supply constrained.

52:48

We have a lot more demand than we can fulfill with this new deal with OpenAI, the $ 38 billion, which only got announced Monday, >> which again feels like forever ago at this point.

53:00

But, uh, Ben was kind of hypothesizing that they kind of let OpenAI jump the line because that $ 38 billion deal was starting effectively immediately. Yeah.

53:10

Versus some of the other like Larry's deal with OpenAI >> was announced.

53:15

this like massive backlog is uh revenue that uh cannot be generated in a meaningful way today because they have to build the data centers that can actually deliver the compute. >> Yeah.

53:28

I mean and you know Amazon has been building data centers.

53:30

They're building data centers.

53:31

They're basically they built all the data centers for Anthropic, but it still seems very um kind of restrained.

53:37

It's not overly ambitious.

53:39

Anthropic has had issues with capacity and it's probably because you know Andy Jasse doesn't want to get over his skis.

53:44

he doesn't want to build too much.

53:46

>> So, I think that's why he's kind of on the left side.

53:48

And also, I mean, if you think AI doesn't work and we're going to kind of be in this, you know, the same spot of web 2.

53:55

0, you need you need a AWS, you need your EC2 server.

54:00

>> Um, I think he's very well positioned there.

54:03

>> Um, and then I think the last one is Tim Cook. >> Tim Cook. Let's hear for Tim Cook.

54:10

crim criminally underpaid but has done a fantastic job not getting over his skis.

54:17

>> Yeah, I this one I think is >> contention >> fairly self-explanatory.

54:19

He I mean he seems >> he doesn't believe in AGI.

54:22

He doesn't believe in LLM doesn't believe in chat bots apparently.

54:26

bots apparently. [laughter] I don't know the new the new Gemini deal signaling >> two years ago Apple was like yeah we're we're not we're not doing that stuff but I think what's what's under discussed that my takeaway from the our conversation with Mark German and

54:44

Apple's ambitions around their new uh LLM experience with Gemini is that I think that there's a very real scenario where Apple >> like wants to compete for the same user base as open AI They want that like transactionbased revenue, that commerce revenue. >> Yeah, I I just I disagree on this point,

55:02

>> Yeah, I I just I disagree on this point, but um >> I'm not I'm not saying that I'm putting their odds at like winning that market at over like 10%.

55:10

But I think that they would be right to realize that it's potentially an opportunity. >> Yeah.

55:18

Is it a billion dollars a year that they're paying Google for >> I believe that's the number. Yeah.

55:23

>> That feels really low, doesn't it? I I I don't know.

55:27

I I I don't know. It just feels super low to me in among all the different deals that are going on when I think about like when I just think about like the value of AI on the iPhone >> and and you're like $1 billion like when I when I think about like what is the

55:44

value that we're that the market broadly is putting on like AI for the enterprise for whatever >> when when Sundar on the Google earnings call was talking about their top I think 10 customers and how many like trillions of tokens they were using, but it really was netting out to like $150 million of like actual revenue. >> And so this is this will be their

56:03

>> And so this is this will be their biggest customer for Gemini on day one >> until one of our listeners gets on, >> of course. Yeah.

56:11

And I think I mean even with the with the Gemini news, uh Apple still seems very uh kind of reactive to AI.

56:19

They're not uh kind of seeing, oh, this future where AI is going to do everything and moving there right now.

56:24

Yeah, they're kind of seeing where the demand is, seeing where the users are, and then moving, which I think is very kind of, you know, classically, >> you know, that's how business work.

56:31

It's not very >> also on on that point of $1 billion, like I have no idea how can they possibly know the amount of inference that's going to happen in Siri plus Gemini over a year period.

56:45

Like there's just no way to predict that. Or can they?

56:52

Like I I feel like if the integration's good, there will be a ton of queries.

56:56

It will it'll >> I didn't read the 1 billion headline.

57:01

Chad can correct me if I'm wrong, but I didn't read the $1 billion headline.

57:02

I felt like that was a technology license, not necessarily infring on top of that. >> Yeah. >> Okay.

57:11

Or or maybe or maybe Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

57:13

Maybe they're licensing Gemini and then they pay per query for like the energy and the capex like >> couldn't a lot of this stuff be done on device >> for sure.

57:21

Yeah, because Gemini uh Gemma has like bakedown models that could be smaller. So, that's possible.

57:27

>> Chad [snorts] says, "Where's Tyler on the chart?"

57:29

>> Feels like Tyler isn't AGI pled anymore.

57:32

>> I actually am on the chart here. >> Uh I am. So, I'm over here.

57:38

>> So, I uh Yeah, I I think I'm very AGI pled, right?

57:41

I you know, I'm ready for the Dyson sphere.

57:42

I think it's you know, only a matter of years. Handful.

57:46

>> Only a matter of [laughter] years.

57:47

>> It's it's a couple thousand thousand days away.

57:49

You need to you need to publish a broadcast 2026. >> AGI 2025. >> AGI.

57:55

>> We still have a month left.

57:56

>> We still have a month left. AGI on Christmas. This Christmas.

57:57

It's coming this Christmas. >> This holiday season.

58:03

>> But why do you need AGI?

58:04

>> I think I also need AGI. >> Why do you need AGI?

58:06

>> Well, I mean, look, if you look at the current jobs data for uh like college age students, postgrad, it's looking pretty bad. >> It's bad.

58:13

>> So, I think you kind of need AGI to really boost the economy.

58:15

If if AI does not work, the macro economy is looking not good. >> Oh, sure, sure, sure. Okay.

58:23

>> So, >> I feel pretty bad about my job outlook uh without AGI. >> Sure, sure, sure.

58:28

Even though you're already employed.

58:29

[laughter] >> That's hilarious.

58:30

Uh well, thank you for taking us through.

58:33

Uh >> uh chat wanted to know where would you put Lisa Sue? >> AMD. >> Yeah.

58:38

So, Lisa Sue, I I think she's broadly been um quite reactive actually.

58:43

she uh you've really only seen AMD start kind of >> you don't get credit for being reactive is what you're saying. >> Yeah.

58:48

You you um I think it's really only over the past year maybe that she's been making any kind of deals, right? You saw George H.

58:55

Hots maybe a year or two ago basically trashing AMD chips for how bad they were in >> but maybe she's she's given so much of the company away.

59:03

Maybe she thinks that shares won't have very much value in the future.

59:08

She's like happy to just give away 10% of the company. >> Yeah.

59:12

So, I I think I would if I had to pick somewhere, I would say that she is she's honestly getting a little close to Larry uh in that AMD it's very much an like an AI play still, right?

59:24

They're a chip company obviously.

59:26

Um but you don't get the you don't get the feeling that she's a true believer. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> That tracks. >> Okay.

59:34

The >> the new Siri I'm reading through some of Mark Gurman's reporting.

59:37

Speaking of Apple and AI, the new Siri is planned for March, give or take, as has been the case for months.

59:43

Apple has been saying for 9 months it's coming in 2026.

59:44

Apple simply reiterated on that.

59:48

And then on the actual deal, it's a $1 billion deal for a 1.

59:52

2 trillion parameter artificial intelligence model developed by Google to help power its o and overhaul the uh Siri AI voice assistant.

1:00:00

The two companies are finalizing an agreement that would see Apple pay roughly 1 billion annually for access to Google's technology with the Google model handling series summarizer and planner functions.

1:00:14

Apple intends to use the Google model as an interim solution until its own models are powerful enough and is working on a one trillion parameter cloud-based model that it hopes to have ready for consumer applications as soon as next year.

1:00:26

Uh that is that's interesting.

1:00:29

I feel like they're going to have to pay a lot more to actually run all the queries, generate all the tokens, but I'm sure we'll find out more as Google reports earnings and Apple reports earnings.

1:00:39

Um, before we get to that, let me tell you about graphite.

1:00:44

dev, code review for the age of AI.

1:00:46

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1:00:51

Um, what else is in the news today?

1:00:55

We have We are >> We have some breaking news through the timeline.

1:00:57

What's the breaking news?

1:00:57

TJ Parker has finally found a new car that he likes. >> Huge. >> Guess what it is.

1:01:04

Guess >> uh a new car that he likes. Uh it's not the Sado.

1:01:08

It's not the Lamborghini Huracan Strato.

1:01:12

>> No, it is the >> Wait R. Look at this. Look at this.

1:01:15

Finally found a new vehicle I quite like and great gas mileage to boot.

1:01:21

>> This was the problem with your Ford Raptor. It wasn't the R. >> It wasn't the R.

1:01:24

That was >> You only had 600 horsepower instead of eight.

1:01:27

>> That was the main problem.

1:01:27

I also needed to park it in uh in cities. >> Oh, yeah.

1:01:32

>> Which is just absolutely brutal. >> Yeah.

1:01:34

What are the specs on the on the on the Raptor R again?

1:01:36

It's uh it's a pretty wild.

1:01:40

How much how much horsepower? Uh Raptor R. >> 0 to 60 and 3. 9 3 >> 720 horsepower. 5. 2 L supercharged V8. Fantastic. It's kind of the Julius. ai of trucks. It really is. >> AI data analyst.

1:01:55

Connect your data, ask questions in plain English, get insights in seconds. No coding required.

1:02:00

Um, I'm trying to go through the timeline.

1:02:03

We got Will Manitis talking about some other stuff.

1:02:07

Um, let's pull up this post from Pegasus since it's relevant to uh the overview we just did.

1:02:13

Pegasus says, "Altman today, of course, he's talking about yesterday.

1:02:17

We're looking at selling compute, but we need as much as possible.

1:02:20

Zuck, last week we could sell compute.

1:02:24

>> Are we in a shortage or not?"

1:02:24

because both are saying they're buying as much of it as they can and thinking about selling it.

1:02:31

>> That's very interesting. Yeah.

1:02:31

I mean, the the the supply and demand dynamics I I I like that that story about Jensen where like he understands the dynamic here, but there's still you get kind of crushed if there's a sell-off in terms of demand.

1:02:45

Like you just have to go back and study what was what was going on during the crypto boom for Nvidia.

1:02:50

Like during the crypto boom for Nvidia, it was like buy as many as possible. Just ramp ramp ramp.

1:02:57

And then they literally had a glut. >> Yeah.

1:03:00

And again, >> completely had a glut and they took huge right offs because they were making >> a steel man here.

1:03:04

If you're a large tech company and you have the ability to and the the financing capital to buy a lot of GPUs, >> you're you're it's not the worst idea to buy as much as you can so that you have preferred access to it and then resell some if you have more than you need, >> right? >> Yeah.

1:03:24

>> But uh yeah, the question is >> historically that has not been how things have been done.

1:03:29

things have been done. like uh I I I understand the the the pitch there, but I mean we just talked to David Bizooki from uh from Roblox and he was saying that look we had our we had our own onrem but then we had we had spikes of demand and so we went to the hyperscalers for that because they can

1:03:49

load balance across well people are playing Roblox here and then maybe they watch some Netflix over there and then they are storing you know all sorts of different data and there's different workloads that happen at different times and So um traditionally the the uh like the hyperscalers have been able to serve service like multiple users across them. Uh jumping straight to uh selling

1:04:09

Uh jumping straight to uh selling compute.

1:04:13

I think that the timelines are a little bit funky on this one.

1:04:15

It seems it seems it seems odd. It seems rushed.

1:04:20

It seems rushed especially when your when your core product is growing so quickly.

1:04:23

Like Google Cloud Platform was released what seven years after Google launched. Same thing with AWS. Same thing with Azure.

1:04:31

Like these were very mature businesses, very stable businesses with cash flow that were able to justify the investment.

1:04:38

It was not something that was done as part in the growth phase as much. I don't know.

1:04:42

Uh speaking of other wild uh wild uh you know new business lines, Elon apparently confirmed that Tesla is going to build a semiconductor fab. >> Yep.

1:04:54

>> I've been advocating this for this for a long time.

1:04:56

I'd love to hear um what Elon had to say.

1:04:59

But first, let me tell you about fall, the generative media platform for developers.

1:05:03

The world's best generative image, video, and audio models all in one place.

1:05:06

Develop and fine-tune models with serverless GPUs and on demand clusters. >> Let's play Elon. What do we got here?

1:05:13

Let's play Elon >> from our suppliers.

1:05:16

Uh, it's still not enough.

1:05:19

So, I think we may have to do a Tesla Terraab. >> Whoa, >> great name.

1:05:30

>> So, >> that is a bombshell.

1:05:33

>> It's like giga but way bigger.

1:05:35

>> Terra [laughter] terabyte.

1:05:37

>> He's feeling good right now.

1:05:37

I I can't see any other way to get to the volume of chips that that we're looking for.

1:05:41

Um so I think we're probably going to have to build a gigantic chip app.

1:05:50

>> Morris Jang TSNC is like no actually I'm fine.

1:05:52

I will I will supply you.

1:05:52

Samsung is like I'm good. I will do it.

1:05:56

>> Pull up this other pull up this other video of Optimus.

1:05:59

>> This crazy because there was some new moves of Optimus uh getting getting jiggy. Let's see.

1:06:09

It is at the bottom of the Tyler app. Look at this. Let's see. >> Look at this. >> Okay.

1:06:16

Uh, so this was this was shown in contrast to the first Optimus, which was just a guy in a suit.

1:06:21

So >> this thing this thing has motion. >> Yeah, it's not bad.

1:06:24

It feel this feels like getting to getting pretty close to unitry level.

1:06:28

Definitely at that level. Um, I don't know.

1:06:35

Imagine you're working late at the office one night and this thing just walks out onto the floor and starts looking at you and doing these moves. >> Yeah. Weird.

1:06:44

It's so it's so weird how these new projects like they seem like a lot I understand why a lot of people look at this with skepticism but at the same time like it just doesn't seem that complicated to just manufacture that thing and ship it like like they do it at at you know in China they do it all over the place.

1:07:07

This doesn't seem that insane.

1:07:08

And at the same time, like Apple couldn't ship a car, so like these new projects like they do kind of >> Elon's shipped some cars, though. >> Yeah. Yeah.

1:07:16

Uh I I I meant it more as like as like if you're doing one thing, it can sometimes be hard to branch out to the other thing.

1:07:23

>> I remember a few weeks ago there was a headline around uh Tesla ordering like $600 million worth of actuators. >> Yeah.

1:07:32

Like it seems like they're going into some sort of production. >> Yeah.

1:07:35

Um, I wonder what who they're going to send.

1:07:38

>> You don't need 600 million for like test just for testing.

1:07:43

>> It's just a the the car analogy is so tricky because it's like uh most people that bought Teslas already had cars, right?

1:07:53

And so it was just like a one for one slot swap.

1:07:57

Who are you replacing with this? You know, it's tricky. What do you think?

1:08:02

Well, with this you can replace uh like an exotic dancer. >> Yes, that's true.

1:08:07

I don't know if many people have [laughter] that an exotic dancer in their life who they're ready to who they're ready to replace.

1:08:14

Um it seems I I don't know.

1:08:17

It'll just be very interesting to see where these things actually diffuse.

1:08:21

Like because if you sell them if you sell them for one price to consumers to do their laundry but they work in an industrial capacity like people will just buy them and use them for that.

1:08:33

But when we talk to people who are in industrial environments they're like I definitely don't want a humanoid robot for that.

1:08:39

I'd rather just like a big massive robotic arm that's like bolted to the ground and can actually lift like 10,000 lbs as opposed to one that can only lift like 50 lbs. I don't know.

1:08:50

Uh Ryan says they're gonna sell them to the police. We'll see.

1:08:53

Maybe they certainly would be uh I don't know backup.

1:08:59

>> I think they would be pretty effective deterrence. >> Maybe. Maybe.

1:09:03

I like Vtorio having some fun on the timeline going viral. Get community noted.

1:09:07

Vtorio said Elon Musk now has $1 trillion in his bank account.

1:09:12

That's a thousand times$1 billion.

1:09:12

He could give every single human on Earth1 billion and still be left with 992 billion. Let that sink in.

1:09:19

People love this funny math whenever it drops.

1:09:22

Uh what else is going on?

1:09:25

The the uh the humanoid uh yes, China has a similar humanoid robotic project, although it's way way scarier because it went full terminator mode on this.

1:09:39

Of course, this one is hooked up to to power.

1:09:41

But >> yes, so this video was in response to um earlier this week there was a I think it was Unitry like presentation and they brought out this new robot and it was walking with such like >> swagger >> natural gate. Yeah.

1:09:53

Basically that that people thought it was actually just a person in the >> and so they replied with uh with the fully stripped down. >> Wow. That is remarkable. Yeah.

1:10:01

Oh, because they put it they put it uh they put like the suit on the robot. >> Yeah. It was like a neo.

1:10:08

It looked kind of like the 1x robot.

1:10:09

We're getting We're getting spooky spooky territory.

1:10:14

[clears throat] This is pretty crazy. Oh wow.

1:10:16

Yeah, it does look human. It does look human.

1:10:19

I'm looking at the other video. Sorry.

1:10:21

Uh let me tell you about Turbo Puffer.

1:10:24

Search every bite serless vector and full text search built from first principles and object stores. >> Cheaper.

1:10:29

>> You see these new logos? >> Oh wow. Stacked. >> Stacked. >> Absolutely stacked.

1:10:34

Chris Baky says, "In the last 10 months, three very talented friends have joined separate hot earlystage startups in senior roles and quit after realizing that the company's actual revenue was significantly less than what the founder had told them during the interview process and and shared online."

1:10:52

>> H few things to clarify clarify. I'm not joking.

1:10:55

In two of three in two of the three cases, it would be hard to tell that you were joining a bad actor company.

1:11:01

on the surface solid investors founders worked at unicorn companies.

1:11:03

Uh the third was maybe more obvious.

1:11:05

The only ones who really lose here are the employees.

1:11:09

The investors have 200 port codes and can afford some losses and our industry doesn't really pursue founders over fraud/ming information up to a certain point.

1:11:16

Four, if you're thinking about joining an early stage startup, ask to see their Stripe andor signed contracts before you join. Not bad advice.

1:11:24

Um >> yeah, again this going back to spring, right?

1:11:29

that just felt like there was this like every founder was feeling this insane pressure to show like 1 to 10 million of of of uh like a 1 to 10 million ramp that was just insane. >> Yeah.

1:11:41

And and and the weird dynamic is that like as that pressure ramps up, you just get more and more incentive to fake it with uh community adjusted ARR and contracts that don't actually stick and um all sorts of different uh twists on something that's like is it actually cash?

1:12:01

Is it actually people coming in?

1:12:03

Are they on long contracts?

1:12:03

Um the quality of revenue has been maybe degrading but also just maybe um uh in just just you know uh it's just been easier to game than ever.

1:12:15

There's been more incentive to game it than ever.

1:12:17

Uh so stay safe out there folks.

1:12:21

>> Uh Kazakhstan has signed anou to buy up to two billion of advanced chips from Nvidia.

1:12:27

Let's hit the gong for Kazakhstan. >> Warm it up. Warm it up. Warm it up. Boom. Great hit.

1:12:34

Great hit [music] for our friends in Kazakhstan.

1:12:38

Good to see them getting into the game.

1:12:43

>> Does Does Borat take place in Kazakhstan?

1:12:46

>> Isn't that Isn't that the whole thing?

1:12:47

Maybe they should do Borat 3 >> about data centers.

1:12:50

>> He he he goes to a data center.

1:12:52

>> Sasha Bear Cohen would be ones his role all to bring AI to Kazakhstan.

1:12:55

Sasha Barra Cohen doing a doc like a yeah just on AI in general. >> Incredible.

1:13:04

It'd [laughter] >> be amazing.

1:13:06

>> So I can use it to do better web search.

1:13:11

[laughter] >> So I can use it as an autocomplete.

1:13:16

>> You're not doing the Borat voice, brother.

1:13:18

>> I'm [snorts] not going to do the Borat voice.

1:13:20

>> I will do the profound voice.

1:13:20

Get your brand mentioned in chat.

1:13:22

Reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and brands. go get a demo.

1:13:28

Uh co the Kobe SE letter says, "Breaking Nvidia's losses accelerated to negative 5% on the day, now down 16% since Monday's high."

1:13:36

That marks a drop of 88 800 billion since Monday.

1:13:38

Wow, that is a wild selloff.

1:13:42

Uh didn't Tyler quote this and say, "Is this bullish?" or something like that.

1:13:47

>> No, that was on the the Door Dash. They went down 20%.

1:13:50

>> Everyone's down 10 or 20%. We need that. >> Yeah.

1:13:52

Whether you whether you beat or miss, you're going down. Wait, is this true?

1:13:56

Reguel said he's working with Elon to bring Optimus to the UFC.

1:14:01

That would be incredible.

1:14:04

>> Please don't be fake news.

1:14:05

>> Please don't be fake news.

1:14:05

We need robots in the UFC.

1:14:07

I mean, Rogan and Palmer Lucky were talking about it on on their podcast and uh it certainly seems like a hilarious and wild thing even just as a as an exhibition match before the real UFC.

1:14:21

Uh get an Optimus though. Here's a question.

1:14:25

Would Elon want a human to thrash on Optimus?

1:14:28

Is that good for his brand?

1:14:31

Or would he want Optimus to win?

1:14:33

And if Optimus wins, then is that actually entertaining? I don't know.

1:14:38

>> I think putting Optimus up against the best MMA fighters in the world. >> Yeah. >> Is fine.

1:14:45

>> It's impossible though, right?

1:14:45

Because if you just kick metal, you'll just break your foot and if you punch, they This was Arya Emanuel at the All-In Summit. >> Yeah.

1:14:53

Uh, it was released I guess one day ago when he was talking about wanting >> Wait, wait, what a weird what a what a crazy crazy timing. That's so interesting.

1:15:02

>> Uh, I saw what he's creating. The man's a genius.

1:15:04

I want to do a UFC fight with his robots. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Um, very cool.

1:15:07

Uh, Heisenberg uh is sharing >> Yeah.

1:15:13

>> sharing a little bit of red here.

1:15:15

Microsoft down 10% in the last 8 days.

1:15:17

Nvidia 12% in the last 4 days. >> Palanteer at 16%.

1:15:23

uh down 16%, Meta down 18%, losses uh have accelerated.

1:15:27

Uh compound 248 was sharing yesterday.

1:15:32

He's like, uh when I clipped this uh I didn't expect to crash the markets globally, but he uh certainly that clip uh seems to have played a a part in this uh little sell-off.

1:15:50

always take a victory lap for for being world for having world historic consequences.

1:15:54

I I actually think that that particular clip was like less than 5% of the total views on that clip because there were other people that clipped it and it got for sure went everywhere.

1:16:05

>> But always claim victory. That's the lesson. That's right.

1:16:08

>> Um anyway, we have our first guest of the show, Katherine Bole from Andre and Horowits joining us.

1:16:12

She's in the stream waiting room.

1:16:13

Welcome to the TV channel, Catherine. How are you doing?

1:16:17

>> It's great to be here. Good to see you guys.

1:16:19

It's finally the night vision goggles sound.

1:16:20

[laughter] You already got new soundboard today.

1:16:23

>> I felt a little tactical.

1:16:23

I felt a little tactical. It's great to see you.

1:16:28

>> Do you should the Department of War get a soundboard during these speeches?

1:16:30

Uh I heard uh I heard [laughter] Haggath was giving a big speech.

1:16:34

Is it are they sticking mostly to uh to the the the the cheers and the clapping or are we doing firing off musketss?

1:16:42

Are we firing off cannons? Is there pageantry?

1:16:44

pageantry alive in the Department of War.

1:16:49

>> Bring the pageantry back to the Department of War.

1:16:51

That is that is important.

1:16:52

You guys You guys should definitely have your own sound for them.

1:16:55

>> You guys are getting the the first look at a a major speech. >> Yes.

1:16:59

>> Um so it is it is just ending right now.

1:17:01

I I just topped off the live stream.

1:17:01

Um and I can tell you my my phone is blowing up with just how many people are enthusiastic, not only in the venture community, but just across Washington about what has been said in the speech.

1:17:14

dramatic repercussions for defense and for Silicon Valley and the broader defense innovation.

1:17:19

So, it's an extraordinary speech.

1:17:21

You'll be hearing a lot more about it, but you're getting the first look. >> Fantastic. Take us through it.

1:17:25

>> And uh and and and it is it is it is definitely um I'd say, you know, for the last say 10 years or so, we've been talking about defense reform, why it is so important uh for for increasing competition for startups.

1:17:37

Um, and what is amazing about this speech is that it's not just lip service to yes, of course, we need competition.

1:17:42

Basically, what you've been hearing in Washington for the last 10 years. It goes line by line.

1:17:49

Hex Seth actually made a very very funny comment.

1:17:51

He said, "If you're watching this on Fox News, your eyes are glazing over >> because this is the most boring thing you've ever heard."

1:17:56

But for everyone in the room, from the the Andres, the Palunteers, the SpaceX's of the world, all the way down to the little guys to the Primes, it was like it was like Christmas come early, right?

1:18:05

because it's it it really is changing the way that acquisitions are going to happen inside the department uh in ways that are so meaningful not only for Silicon Valley companies but for private equity backed companies and and for the primes.

1:18:18

Uh he basically told the primes in the very beginning you have to be investing more in research and development.

1:18:22

The companies that have been getting the large programs cannot just continue as as as business used to be done.

1:18:27

He actually quoted um Donald Rumsfeld.

1:18:32

Didn't tell us he was quoting Donald Rumsfeld for the first five minutes and basically went line by line through a speech that he gave on September 10th, 2001.

1:18:40

>> About how important it is to change the defense acquisition process.

1:18:42

And he said, you probably don't recognize this, but the speech I am giving now is actually Rumsfeld's >> wait September 10th. >> Yes. Yes.

1:18:50

>> The day before just happened to be >> happened to be the day before where he said we have to process.

1:18:57

>> That is a crazy coincidence.

1:18:57

it very very crazy coincidence, but it shows you just how long this has been going on. Sure. Sure. Sure.

1:19:03

So, I'm I'm I'm happy I have my notes here because I was taking notes throughout throughout the speech. >> Yeah. Let's go line by line.

1:19:11

>> Let startups know what what's going to be changing. Yes, please.

1:19:14

>> Um but the the first thing that I think is really important for for all of the startups in Silicon Valley is that he mentioned and called out the importance of commercial first technology.

1:19:21

So this is going to shock people who are not in the defense world that right now if you need to build a product specifically for the department of defense the vast majority of contracts that are given out are not given out with a purview of what exists already in the marketplace that we can buy. Yes.

1:19:37

uh people, you know, it's a requirements process, a very long 300 day and you know, requirements process actually that that he called out that requires the different program offices to say what they need to write it down and then to find people who will build explicitly for those requirements.

1:19:55

They are doing away with the old requirements process and saying this is not what we're going to do anymore.

1:19:58

We are going to focus on commercial first technologies.

1:20:01

Even if there is a technology out there that is only 85% of what we need, we will we will buy it or that that is that is the goal and then we will turn it into what we need to for actually for the warfire.

1:20:13

>> This is CS versus got for the DoD DO word nerds like commercial offtheshelf versus government offtheshelf.

1:20:20

Uh this is what Anderol and all the defense tech community has been beating the drum on for basically a decade now and it feels like it's finally getting echoed back from the administration. Is that correct? >> Yes. >> Yes.

1:20:33

And there was there was a lot the administration and the EO that was was out a couple months ago said that they wanted commercial first technology.

1:20:38

Now you're hearing it straight from the secretary's mouth.

1:20:41

There's always dust ups about this on Capitol Hill with with you know various parties arguing over whether we need more studies or whether we should just do this.

1:20:49

It looks like now th this is a real change that's about to happen and it's going to be transformative for for all of the startup community.

1:20:56

What it really says is that the best products will win. >> Yeah.

1:21:00

Who are who are the losers here?

1:21:02

>> Well, I think I mean the major loser from this speech is the primes.

1:21:04

I mean he did he said I don't want to pick on anyone.

1:21:07

I'm not going to call out companies but you have to be investing in research and technology.

1:21:10

in research and technology. like you have to be the the fact that these that the primes only spend 2% uh on on research and development uh and are are focused on you know constantly kind of maintaining the status quo that is not going to happen on his watch% I think it was a >> 2% on R&D >> yes um and and and haven't historically

1:21:30

been been acquiring ventureback companies so this is also the problem where they're they're they're really just on a much uh slower timeline than is needed by by the department um and and I'd say that the the takeaway away from the speech and I think the sound bite you'll be hearing more and more

1:21:43

about is that the new process is really going to be used to enable speed and volume >> and one of the things that I think you know a number of companies have been talking about for a long time is that by taking more risk in the acquisition process you take less risk on the battlefield and he actually echoed that

1:22:00

he said we want to take more risk we want to have we want to reward the people inside of the department who are take making risky decisions or supposedly risky decisions because they're acquiring new technology ies or or from companies that are that are not Rathon and and and the the kind of big guys, right? But what what they what

1:22:15

But what what they what they ultimately said is like they want those the the people who are going to be making those acquisition decisions to be taking on the risk because it takes less it will affect the risk of the war fighter, right?

1:22:27

It will make things safer for the war fighter.

1:22:28

So, it's it's basically linking this entire process, bringing it back to to what needs to be done um before wars start and before products get into the world.

1:22:36

this is like a a top-own directive and then who are the players that need to actually put this into like who are the kind of key players that need to put this into practice? >> Yeah.

1:22:48

So, I mean like the the the main thing that I this is definitely a message sent to Congress because there's there's currently, you know, two different bills going through on Congress that are actually pretty aligned and in in most of the things that they're saying.

1:22:58

There's a few call outs where I think you'll you'll see sort of um some some sort of back and forth between the House and the Senate, but but this is definitely a call to them.

1:23:06

Like this is happening on on sec the secretary's watch.

1:23:08

This is something that he cares deeply about.

1:23:09

This is something that the administration cares about.

1:23:13

And so it definitely is a huge push, not just a not just a major signal, but they sort of outlined this is how we're going to change things inside the department.

1:23:19

One of the biggest things that they do is is they created this sort of portfolio-based approach of how they're going to be allocating capital to companies.

1:23:26

Now, and this is always shocking when I explain to people that this is this is revolutionary because you'd say in a in a normal company, you're given a budget and if the vendor you choose is, you know, fails, you'll go to another vendor and you'll use that capital in order to to buy whatever product you need.

1:23:41

That is not how the department works.

1:23:43

And so with this new portfolio-based approach, they're basically saying, "We're going to give the what what's known as the PAEEs, the the portfolio acquisition executives, the right to say, okay, if this if this one product that we acquired 60 days ago isn't working on the battlefield, we can use the rest of the money and reprogram it for a product that is working."

1:24:04

>> And right now, that is that is not possible inside the Department of Defense.

1:24:07

Right now, you have to write a whole another list of requirements and ways that you would build a new product in theory that can take years to actually build.

1:24:13

and by the time it's built, it it it isn't meeting the requirements or the needs of the war fighter.

1:24:18

So, the fact that they're even changing the budgeting process and that they have an explicit call out of how they're going to do that, that will show up in this year's NDAA once it's passed and it will be the way that things are done from now on.

1:24:29

>> A couple extraordinary. >> Yeah.

1:24:31

So th this means that uh if a contract is allocated to a certain company and they're they start underperforming in real time, the the person who's in charge of of allocating that budget can basically say, "Hey, this other this other startup like we're we're going to like rotate this budget over here because >> yes, >> they're actually going to deliver on this."

1:24:52

I've heard super >> Yeah, I've heard some horror stories uh and even opportunities where some of the bigger primes have just been have just held on to contracts forever.

1:25:00

They're kind of like barely delivering.

1:25:02

They're kind of like trying to deliver and startups coming in and saying like, "Hey, we'll actually take this over."

1:25:09

And sometimes those deals can can happen, but uh this seems like it'll be a lot more effective.

1:25:15

>> Are there any new categories that are opening up generally?

1:25:17

I mean in we we we we we you know we've heard this week about like data centers in space.

1:25:22

So if you're tracking like data centers or space like that's a story.

1:25:26

Um but I remember secretary of the army was talking about uh modularity of weaponry taking apart a drone fixing it are uh I feel like the whole idea of drones or autonomous submarines these are new categories that sort of opened up.

1:25:40

There have been a number of competitors, but at the thematic like within defense technology level, are there any categories that you think this new administration is maybe more excited about than ever before? >> Yeah.

1:25:56

So, I mean, you you mentioned modularity and what the Secretary of the Army is talking about.

1:25:59

I mean, this is this was actually called out in in Secretary Hegv's speech where he said, "Part of the reason why we need these PA paees and were formerly called PEOS, but PAEEs, these portfolio- based approaches, is because right now, if you want to take something apart and put it back together, you have to build an entirely different system to acquire those parts."

1:26:18

>> Uh, and you have to go through a requirements process.

1:26:19

So, if you're building modular based approaches that update in real time and he actually said like, "We want it to be more like software.

1:26:25

we want to do software in updates in real time and not have to go through a requirements-based approach.

1:26:31

You you need um to to be be thinking about things in terms of modularity.

1:26:34

So I think there's there's a lot of different even just changing the way the budgeting works, it opens up a lot of different techn technologies that were that were you know not able to to participate in the acquisition system because they didn't want to go through um the the requirements process or they knew they wouldn't meet the requirements that are being put out by the Department of War.

1:26:54

So it is it is going to radically change I think not only the types of products you're seeing in the hands of the war fighter but just how quickly they get there. >> Makes a lot of sense.

1:27:02

Switching gears a little bit.

1:27:04

Uh Sam Alman suggested on Wednesday this idea of like my my interpretation of it was kind of like a go model for uh AI factories.

1:27:12

Without commenting on on that specifically, can you give us the history of go when and how they work well and what kind of some of the challenges have been?

1:27:28

>> Well, what what I actually didn't see what can you give me a little more context on what what >> Yeah.

1:27:34

So, I'll read exactly what he said.

1:27:37

So, this was in response to uh clarifying the the sort of uh backs stop gate.

1:27:42

Um he said uh so anyways he he basically said obvious one we do not have or want government guarantees for open AI data centers and then like later in the post he said what we do think might make sense is governments building and owning their own AI infrastructure and then the upside of that should flow to the government as well.

1:28:01

We can imagine a world where governments decide to offtake a lot of computing power and get to decide how to use it and it may make sense to provide lower costs of capital to do so.

1:28:09

Building a strategic national reserve of computing power makes a lot of sense, but this should be for the government's benefit, not the benefit of private companies.

1:28:16

And sure, just in some of like some of the ideas around this just reminded me of of how Gokos have have worked in uh in defense tech where the government is basically saying like we we have we're willing to commit resources and land to like a certain initiative and then you can have the private market potentially pay a role.

1:28:33

I have no idea how uh how this would that how this would look like uh in the AI context, but I just want I I just thought it'd be helpful to understand like how these sort of like public private uh partnerships have worked in the past, specifically in defense. >> Yeah.

1:28:50

Well, no, I can I can talk to one that was actually discussed today.

1:28:51

So the secretary of the army was on squatbox this morning talking about specifically if we are giving the land and security for for massive data centers could the army have its own data centers and be one of the largest providers and actually offtake that compute.

1:29:05

So I do think that there are are ongoing conversations.

1:29:07

are ongoing conversations. Candidly I haven't seen, you know, massive conversations about how it's going to be enact enacted by the Department of War, but I thought it was very interesting that the Secretary of the Army was basically saying that you this is

1:29:19

something that they would be very interested in that they know that they are going to need their own compute um and that if there is sort of a trade-off of we provide the land and the security uh there should be an understanding that that that compute then goes to to the army. So, I don't know that they fully

1:29:31

So, I don't know that they fully fleshed out the details of of those sorts of things, but I do think there's a lot of conversations about this.

1:29:36

Um, and you know, it's it's good to hear that that Sam is also talking about that in certain ways, but I do think for the Department of War, they know that it's top of mind, and I think they're being a lot more experimental, which again comes back to if you have um a system of of requirements um that that is far more sort of open, I'd say, to experimentation or working with new companies that can do that.

1:29:56

Um, it does give the the, you know, secretaries of the army or the navy a lot more authority to make those decisions on kind of the the actual things like compute or energy that they need. Yeah.

1:30:08

How do you think about the the flow between like uh entrepreneurial ideas like problems that are identified in the private sector?

1:30:16

Somebody starts a company like with Anderl is like the flipped model.

1:30:19

This idea that R&D should maybe live outside of the taxpayer dime uh be funded by venture capitalists.

1:30:24

uh that company gets built.

1:30:27

Eventually those ideas are percolating into DC and then the the world updates, America updates, we change the way we work.

1:30:37

Uh things get better, but Anderole benefits and people are pointing the finger, you know, like, hey, you you you're the one that advocated for this.

1:30:45

And I feel like that's kind of where Sam's caught right now.

1:30:48

Uh where OpenAI is advocating for things that I think are good for America, but also might benefit OpenAI.

1:30:55

And so he has to do this delicate dance of like well I was independent on this one but this one does benefit me etc etc.

1:31:03

It's like such a communications challenge.

1:31:04

Do you think it's like do you have any best practices for like how to not get over your skis on that?

1:31:11

>> Well I think it's I think as you said it's sort of a typical Washington story where in order for things to change you you do have to sort of you know kind of Washington's a meme town just as Silicon Valley is a meme town.

1:31:21

you have to be able to tell your story why it's so important.

1:31:25

I would argue that that Ander was exceptional at at really telling the story of why you need attitudable systems, why you need modular systems.

1:31:33

Basically, the the kind of, you know, the the kind of uh frameworks that we're using today inside the Department of War came from those memes being established.

1:31:42

But yes, if you're if you're successful inside of of Washington, you're going to tick off a lot of different people. Totally.

1:31:47

um and you're going to to certainly upset sort of the the bureaucratic class.

1:31:50

And what was very interesting too about this this speech is that the secretary actually called out the bureaucratic class and said like this is not a problem with people that we have.

1:32:00

This is not a problem with innovation or technology.

1:32:02

It is the bureaucracy that is stopping us from making great decisions.

1:32:07

>> And I think like that that is something that is that is you know always been the problem with DC.

1:32:11

Um, and I think, you know, the the the most important thing that companies can always do is just continue saying what they believe, going to Washington, building those relationships.

1:32:20

And I think if anything over the last 10 years, this defense defense acquisition reform, which everyone said was impossible, is now actually at our fingertips and going to happen because it makes sense.

1:32:29

The argument has been made.

1:32:31

It's been made in dozens of different ways um across many administrations and everyone's in agreement on it now.

1:32:37

So for founders that that feel like, oh gosh, like look look at these great companies that are getting backlash because they they've, you know, kind of spread their own gospel and now they're being attacked for it, like that's actually, I think, a sign of progress.

1:32:49

Um, if you're being attacked for what you're what you're advocating in Washington, um, that's usually a good thing. >> Yeah.

1:32:55

No, that makes a lot of sense. >> Uh, final question.

1:32:56

What is your most up-to-date guidance for your portfolio companies around the shutdown? >> Yeah. Yeah. No.

1:33:04

So, I mean it it definitely is having an impact, right?

1:33:07

Like the the companies that were expecting contracts to come in or reprogramming dollars like they're not going to necessarily see it on the timelines that they thought maybe, you know, maybe a quarter ago.

1:33:16

That said, um I I do think that a lot of these provisions that are happening right now um are are so transformative that in the long run, like the kind of if we look back on what happened in in the year 2025, it will have been a very very good year for startups.

1:33:30

Maybe maybe their their numbers will lag by a quarter just because okay like the funds can't be delivered depending on how long the shutdown goes down.

1:33:37

I think it's having a greater impact actually on the citizen, right?

1:33:40

Like I mean what's happening with air traffic control, what's happening, you know, across um you know, civic benefits like that that is something that I think um we're now all feeling the pain of or or people who are dependent on those benefits are certainly feeling the pain of or people who are traveling um or planning to travel for upcoming Thanksgiving are certainly going to feel the pain of the shutdown.

1:33:58

But it's certainly having an impact um on companies and I think most companies are still working exceptionally hard um on the things that they can work hard on now.

1:34:06

um even if the even if the contracts can't get signed or the press releases can't be put out or or the dollars aren't coming in yet.

1:34:13

Um but I think when we look back this year, the story of this year will actually be the defense acquisition reform and and what's happening for these companies in the long term versus sort of the short term. >> Yeah.

1:34:23

Short-term pain, long-term uh gain. >> Yeah, absolutely. >> Awesome.

1:34:26

Well, thank you uh so much for taking notes and giving us the full breakdown. >> Thanks so much.

1:34:32

>> Always great to catch.

1:34:32

>> We'll talk to you soon. Have a good one.

1:34:35

>> Uh let me tell you about linear.

1:34:35

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1:34:38

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1:34:40

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1:34:44

And we have our next guest, Mikey Schulman from Sunno in the ream waiting room.

1:34:49

Welcome to the TBPN Ultra. How you doing?

1:34:52

>> It's great to be here. I'm doing great. How are you guys? >> Fantastic.

1:34:55

>> Fantastic to have you.

1:34:57

>> I'm I'm very excited about this.

1:34:57

Um, I have a million questions and and I know that we're just going to go super deep into all the details of user behavior, but uh, kick us off with just a general highlevel interu introduction on you and the company and then we'll go from there. >> Cool. Yeah, great to be here.

1:35:15

Um, I don't know, I'm not so interesting.

1:35:17

Uh, the company's much more interesting.

1:35:18

Uh, [clears throat] uh, the way I like to think of it is we are delivering the best, most valuable digital musical experiences, um, to the whole world.

1:35:26

And right now the things that are available to the end user are not always amazing.

1:35:32

They're not always differentiated.

1:35:32

Um, and I think that's just like a failure of imagination that you can do so much more with music and you can enjoy it so much more.

1:35:40

So that's how I think about us.

1:35:42

>> What was the first song that you ever made? >> Ever made? Yeah.

1:35:46

>> I've been playing piano since I'm four.

1:35:48

Uh, I played in a lot of bands in high school and in college. Um, I play every day.

1:35:51

So uh, I don't actually know the answer to that, but it was probably like chopsticks or something.

1:35:55

>> Are you a foundation model company?

1:35:57

class >> or an application layer company or both.

1:36:02

>> Look, the the answer is both.

1:36:02

You know, all the technologies are ours. These didn't exist.

1:36:06

Um but [clears throat] I think about and may maybe this will color the conversation and certainly um you know when you guys were discussing us last week or two weeks ago, >> all that matters here is the product.

1:36:16

All that matters is that we deliver an experience to a user that makes them feel a certain way.

1:36:19

And so at the end of the day um like that like if there were a way to do what we're doing without AI like we would probably do that. There just isn't. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah.

1:36:29

So it in in so there is a win condition where you don't even train models and you use someone else's models but as long as you have the best application like that's where the value occurs. I think so.

1:36:40

Like at the end of the day >> story. >> Yeah.

1:36:44

Users don't care and I I think probably at some point um maybe there's like a last model we officially release. Yeah.

1:36:50

Um and the rest is just like amazing product updates.

1:36:54

>> No, no, I I completely agree with that. That makes sense.

1:36:56

>> Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.

1:36:56

What uh walk us through we we normally don't talk about the history of companies too much during interviews but because you're I mean this is the first time on the show like I'd love to kind of understand the different inflection points for at for the business.

1:37:09

I mean you guys just grown tremendously over the last uh over the last year.

1:37:14

So walk yeah walk us through kind of the the history of Sunno and then kind of the history of even AI music and how those two things track. Um, sure.

1:37:26

We launched this product a little over two years ago.

1:37:28

I think it was in September.

1:37:30

Um, and it was kind of barely passable back then. It was a a Discord bot.

1:37:36

This is actually something I got wrong completely.

1:37:37

Thankfully, I have good co-founders um who disabused me of my bad ideas.

1:37:42

>> And was that like a mid was that a midjourney?

1:37:44

Were you inspired by MidJourney? Makes >> sense.

1:37:46

It was working for MidJourney. Why not?

1:37:48

>> It was working so well for Midjourney.

1:37:50

And I thought we'd be on Discord forever.

1:37:51

And then um uh it was like around Thanksgiving we released of that year we released like a really thin web app.

1:37:57

Um it didn't even have the full functionality of the Discord bot and [clears throat] 5 days for 90% of the traffic to move over to the web.

1:38:04

It just like ever market signal that I got something wrong that was like very very strong.

1:38:09

Um, and I think slowly but surely, you know, we keep releasing new products, new models, the product gets more engaging, the music gets more impactful, and slowly but surely, I I would say the cartoon you should have is um it becomes more and more appealing to a larger and larger group of people every time you make the product better.

1:38:28

And so, um, it's basically been a lot of iteration.

1:38:30

Yes, there are inflection points.

1:38:32

Um, everything consumer is like a little bit lumpy, but uh, that's that's the history of it. >> Yeah.

1:38:37

What did what did the early cohort of users look like?

1:38:39

How were they using the product?

1:38:41

Where like why were they I'm assuming they were you know you had uh I'm sure you had a cult kind of cult following kind of early.

1:38:48

Uh what what did that early cohort look like and and is it that much different than than today or is it just scaled up?

1:38:56

>> Um it's very different today.

1:38:56

So, the early cohort um I would describe as like uh very tech forward and music curious and it's like here's this new thing.

1:39:04

You kind of have to suspend disbelief.

1:39:07

You need to be really forgiving cuz the music actually isn't all that good.

1:39:10

Um and uh as you make the product better, you you grow out from there.

1:39:16

And now it's like people who love music who are like a little bit tech curious.

1:39:20

And actually at this point, you don't even need to be all that tech curious.

1:39:23

there's like a fairly easy to use experience on both web and mobile that you can just kind of dive into.

1:39:27

And so um I think uh the the early users are indeed like you know if you were on Discord, let me put it this way.

1:39:35

If you were on Discord like you are a very different kind of user than the type of person who might um find it. >> Yeah. Exactly. Exactly. >> Yeah.

1:39:44

And so and so today I think like part of the part of the debate that we were having and and you can uh deliver some some truth around this is like what like what are kind of the key cohorts that are using and loving SNO.

1:39:56

Everyone by now has probably seen you know viral short form videos where people are combining two different songs and and some of the reach on on these assets is insane.

1:40:08

And you'll see, you know, somebody combining like uh uh rap artists like Future with uh jazz music and and you know, getting, you know, hundreds or tens of millions or, you know, potentially even more uh views on this type of content.

1:40:22

But then we've also heard of stories of professional musicians using this to like accelerate their workflows.

1:40:27

And then we've now heard stories of people that are just using creating music just for personal consumption.

1:40:34

And so what what do the different kind of cohorts look like and what what are you guys what kind of user are you guys most focused on?

1:40:44

>> So the professional content creator be they professional music creator or other content creator this is like mids singledigit percentage of our user base >> and the vast majority of people are people um who love music but aren't making music uh for any other purpose.

1:41:01

That's just we call it creative entertainment.

1:41:02

is just like a new behavior.

1:41:04

>> And so I think trying to apply too much of what you know from other things, be it >> consumer social platforms or video games, it's always you always just have to take everything with a grain of salt.

1:41:13

Um >> but most people they come and they find that music making is incredibly enjoyable.

1:41:19

And um if you have studied an instrument and made music with your friends, like you probably already know this and um you just don't believe that it can be done digitally and then you kind of find the product and you realize, oh my god, this can be done digitally.

1:41:30

I'm gonna enjoy the hell out of making music.

1:41:32

Um, I usually um try to cartoonize our our average user as people who would say, "I love music. I love to sing.

1:41:39

You don't love it when I sing."

1:41:41

That's kind of uh that's kind of our sweet spot. >> That makes sense.

1:41:45

>> And and and that tracks on like actual monetization.

1:41:47

It's not like those are the free users and then the all the revenue comes from professional people or like API like it actually matches roughly what you described. >> That That's right.

1:41:57

And so that's fascinating.

1:41:58

Um I you know you guys mentioned um a couple weeks ago the Chris Dixon thing the like um come for the tools stay for the network.

1:42:04

I think about it a little differently for us and I I kind of think of it for us as like come for the gimmick and stay for the joy and this is like the party trick of making that song that um even if it's not you know your favorite artist um you know which you largely can't do on the platform but it's you know make the country song about Debbie being late.

1:42:24

That's the party trick, but there's something that is behind the party trick that you get pulled into and all of a sudden you are a music maker and you're enjoying it.

1:42:30

And so, um, I actually I I don't think it's bad, um, you know, there's like this this this song that is meant to be consumed once that you're never going to consume again that like you laugh for 4 seconds with your friend.

1:42:43

And I think you know, one of you said like, I almost just need to know the prompt um, and then I don't need to know the rest of the song.

1:42:48

I don't actually think that's bad because there's this amazing experience that it gets backed up with that people spend hours a day on. >> Totally. >> Yeah.

1:42:55

And I I when I think about some of the most fun moments of my childhood, it was my dad writing and playing a song for guitar and singing it one time and never singing it again.

1:43:05

And I still like just remember the moments and the and the joy of that.

1:43:09

And so like the concept of like ephemeral songs that can be created for a moment that historically you would have needed, you know, studio time.

1:43:18

You would have needed to spend all this time like writing the song, you know, producing it, all this stuff.

1:43:22

And now it can be done in an instant.

1:43:23

I I think uh it really is it really is >> totally magical.

1:43:29

>> Where >> I think this is similar to this is similar to this like there's ephemeral pictures on your phone, right?

1:43:33

And you're never going to look at them again unless Apple tells you to. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

1:43:37

Where where where are the rough edges or where where are the edges that you want to be like careful around?

1:43:40

I feel like uh with chat GBT no one was really expecting the whole like getting oneshotted and like psychosis and like be delusions of grandeur like that came out of nowhere in my opinion and then all of a sudden it was like an issue and they had to work on it and of course there's like guardrails that they can put up.

1:43:58

Uh midjourney I think a lot of people use that as art therapy.

1:44:00

I haven't seen that many people or heard that many anecdotes about people like going crazy because of midjourney, but there's still like if you're doing image generation, you don't want to generate adult content, for example.

1:44:10

Uh do you have an idea of like the shape of the battle that you're going to be waging against like the the like the risks that you want to like fight off? >> Yeah.

1:44:21

Look, I think for us, they're actually just fairly lower stakes than those other ones.

1:44:25

Like our AI is turning anyone into paper clips and not that I think that that's a real thing anyway.

1:44:30

And I I like you said, I don't think we're we're we're inducing psychosis in anyone.

1:44:34

Um, >> you know, this is a tricky question.

1:44:38

Music um >> the the the content has kind of always been filthy in in the best music.

1:44:42

And um >> I don't really want us to be the arbiter of that.

1:44:47

So, we have like some some content moderation that's like pretty um >> I would say pretty >> forgiving and and [clears throat] currently that's actually that's it.

1:44:55

And then lots of copyright moderation, of course. >> Yeah.

1:44:58

I was uh I was raised on Little John and the East Side Boys and uh it was it was indeed filthy >> and and yes, it it would not be your place to necessarily filter that.

1:45:07

I would imagine that you at some point have to do some sort of like KYC, age verification or or even something that's just like parental controls, that type of stuff.

1:45:18

Uh that certainly makes sense.

1:45:21

Um I I have a follow-up question, but >> go for Oh, yeah.

1:45:23

I there was an article in the in the journal yesterday about how uh um Instagram had used uh PG-13 as a heruristic for the type of content that they would show to teenagers on Instagram.

1:45:37

And the MPA actually pushed back against that.

1:45:40

And I was very upset about that because I feel like we need shared language for how we describe what is acceptable on new tech platforms.

1:45:48

So, like I want you to be able to put the label of like explicit content.

1:45:55

Remember that explicit content on every album?

1:45:57

It became so iconic it was actually cool, which it maybe had a bad effect.

1:46:00

But if you put that if you put that black and white flag with the explicit on there, I know exactly what I'm getting.

1:46:07

And I know that I'm going to keep that out of my hand out of the hands of my kids for a number of years.

1:46:13

Um, and I would hate for I would hate to be in a situation where you couldn't use that and you had to come up with some new jargon for your policy.

1:46:22

I love just building on the shoulders of giants, but have you thought about adapting any of those terminologies or just making your moderation language match what people already know? Is that relevant to you?

1:46:38

>> Um, not as much as it is on other platforms.

1:46:40

I mean, but but it is, you know, I feel like um we should not be the arbiters of a lot of these things and um you know, quite quite frankly, maybe like you don't want us to be the arbittors of these things and that there should be other guidelines set by other things.

1:46:54

And so like yes, if you're dealing with children, you're going to have different rules about the songs that you can make and that you cannot make.

1:46:59

And actually, um right now, parents making songs with their kids is actually a mega use case.

1:47:06

It's probably half of my usage um which is a lot.

1:47:08

I I use the product a lot.

1:47:08

And so it's like right now this is actually not the biggest focus for us.

1:47:12

Um like what we have like works pretty well.

1:47:17

There are always going to be edge cases.

1:47:18

There are edge cases in moderation on every single platform literally, you know, ever.

1:47:22

And kind of just through them as they come. >> Yeah.

1:47:25

>> What are your conversations like with people in the music industry?

1:47:28

There were there was some news earlier this week around the first like AI artist signed a record deal.

1:47:35

I don't know if it was actually the first, but that's how it was being reported.

1:47:38

How are the conversations with go are going with your users that are like true pro users that are using Sunno to either like, you know, experiment with like a bunch of different variations of songs, get new ideas, make entire songs themselves.

1:47:56

What are those conversations like?

1:47:58

>> You know, I think there's been a huge shift in the last 6 months.

1:48:00

I would say like now I really don't meet a lot of professionals who don't use Sunno at least a little bit.

1:48:06

Like songwriters use this a ton. We run a lot of camps.

1:48:08

Um as [clears throat] it's cliche but a creative companion or a creative co-pilot for helping craft the right songs, you know, verse by verse or getting ideas.

1:48:18

Um basically every producer I know uses Suno.

1:48:20

This um it was recently put to me just in in an incredibly piffy way of we've become the ompic of the music industry.

1:48:26

Everybody's on it but nobody wants to talk about it.

1:48:31

Um, and uh, while that might be frustrating for us that in the interim nobody wants to talk about it, in the long run that's actually great.

1:48:36

You know, in the long run, the fact that everybody is using it and loves it is fantastic.

1:48:40

And so, um, it's this weird dynamic, I think, where one-on-one people are quite pro, even though like the industry as a whole may have different feelings about it. >> It's interesting. Yeah.

1:48:51

I wonder I wonder how this like like the creative the creative element of this like really throws me because uh on on the one hand I see if if I'm thinking about Sunno in the creative realm is like you know cursor for your uh for your DAW your your your workstation your your Fruity Loops or your ProTools or your Ableton um and you're generating samples and actually working through that.

1:49:21

working through that. I feel like that is something that yes would get to 100% pres penetration but on the flip side like we've had the ability to generate blog posts and text for years now at human touring test level and and yet like we it does not feel like we're

1:49:38

close to uh just oh yeah just put in a prompt write a good blog post and it comes out and it's good like you still need that that spark that inspiration and then most people I I feel like are still not they're they're you still in the co-pilot era for sure and I feel like that that that's interesting. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know.

1:49:59

>> I think there's a big difference though here which is that there's a few big differences but for me you know hearing you say that I I it makes me think a lot of um you're thinking of us largely as a tool and it's because a lot of AI products are tools and um the point is not to just churn this blog post out.

1:50:14

Actually the point is to have enjoyed the process of it.

1:50:16

I happen not to really enjoy the process of writing so much.

1:50:19

Maybe maybe you guys are different, but like um for us >> the way people use suno, it's like you're coming.

1:50:24

Yes, there is some song at the end of it that you listen to and the fruits of your labor are enjoyable, but the journey of doing it is actually why you're there.

1:50:31

And so the actual tool analogy doesn't really work there of like I don't just write in the prompt and it comes out perfect.

1:50:37

That's not even the point here. >> Yes.

1:50:40

>> Yes. So I I I think what I'm I think where I'm getting is that uh the actual market for AI audio is going to bifurcate in my opinion and there will be people just like there are there are people right now that use LLM to just

1:50:57

chat and just have an AI therapist or they have a friend or they just ask ChatgBT40 for you know hey what should I do at work about this they're just having a conversation and then out of text generation, out of LLMs, we also got just the ability to do code completion. And so we got, you know,

1:51:14

And so we got, you know, windsurf and cursor and codecs and, you know, we got these like coding agents and then we also got like AI therapists.

1:51:24

And these are two wildly different things from the same underlying technology.

1:51:28

And I feel like the like I would I I would just be shocked if you don't see both emerge over time.

1:51:33

I mean, maybe the different company comes in and takes one more seriously than you because if the market's really big, but I would I would imagine that you wind up servicing both to some degree. No, >> for sure.

1:51:44

I mean, we already service both, but you know, I almost think of this as um in the coding example. Yeah.

1:51:50

>> You might vibe code something. >> Yeah.

1:51:52

>> Um and that's just a few prompts. Yeah.

1:51:54

>> Um or you might actually need fine grain control over the thing and then you use a different tool like something that's basically autocomplete on steroids.

1:51:59

And I don't mean that in a jar of way. It's like amazing. >> 100%. music is the same way.

1:52:03

I might vibe create something and have a session where >> y >> the music is generally what I'm looking for and I enjoy the process of getting there.

1:52:13

Um, but maybe that's the end of it.

1:52:15

And if this is going to be a song that is everlasting and intended to top the charts, I need that fine grain control and I need a different paradigm and a different set of workflows and tools for doing it.

1:52:25

And so, um, there may even be the the same underlying model that powers both of those things and it's a different end user application. Yeah.

1:52:33

>> H how do you think uh like video creation is distinctly different than like music creation?

1:52:40

Because I think you know on our side watching the Sora launch, Sora was like a cool creative tool that had this novel like feature that was the cameo feature.

1:52:50

But then immediately those outputs just want wanted to go live elsewhere, right?

1:52:54

They wanted to go where these big audiences were.

1:52:59

And I feel like with Sunno, the difference is like you can create music and you want to save stuff and it's actually can be very enjoyable to just listen to the content.

1:53:08

Um, is that is that just a like do you think that will do you think that will always be kind of the dynamic or do you think eventually like video models will catch up to the point where like people are generating videos and then just like consuming them a lot because I haven't again like I think a lot of the the output of something like Aora has been like very ephemeral.

1:53:32

gets maybe shared in a group chat or gets shared on another social media platform but people are not like revisiting the content.

1:53:40

>> Yeah, I think look very fastm moving space and so you know this is just one guy's opinion today.

1:53:45

Um I think there's basically two big differences.

1:53:47

One is um the joy in making the music and I think people mostly enjoy consuming the Sora outputs and the the experience of making it is is less interesting.

1:53:59

And then the other thing about video in general, but especially AI video, is it really tends to short form and actually the beauty of music is that it really is meant to grab you for minutes at a time and not seconds at a time.

1:54:12

And it makes for a completely different consumptive experience.

1:54:14

And so, um, and I think that's actually a lot of what's broken in music consumption today is there's so much pressure to put on a song and then put, you know, through headphones and then put your phone in your pocket and not even really pay attention to it.

1:54:29

Um, but I I think a lot more is possible where I do have somebody's attention for 3 minutes, 4 minutes, and you can actually tell the story through music in a way that like a 30-second video really does not.

1:54:42

And so maybe AI video will get there.

1:54:44

Maybe it will get there in a year.

1:54:45

Maybe it'll get there in 5 years, but like today, that's what I see as the the two big differences. >> Makes sense.

1:54:50

H how do you think the music streaming platforms will navigate AI music?

1:54:58

I >> I think they look they they already are.

1:55:00

There's AI music on these platforms.

1:55:00

Uh Spotify has announced that they'll start doing AI music.

1:55:04

And so, um, I I I I very strongly suspect that in like 5 years, this is not a conversation that's [clears throat] being had because I already know that there's little bits of our music everywhere in in, you know, mega smashes.

1:55:19

And um, the same way you don't think about like was this song digitally produced or was it produced on a giant console in a studio somewhere?

1:55:29

And that's maybe something that people thought for 5 years, you know, 30 years ago.

1:55:32

I I my my very strong suspicion or just like autotune where now every song has autotune in it even if you can't hear it.

1:55:38

My very strong suspicion is that that is where everything um ends up and the reason is it is better for consumers.

1:55:45

It would really be bad for consumers and therefore bad for the size of the ecosystem if these things kind of bifurcate. >> Yep.

1:55:52

That makes a lot of sense.

1:55:52

It's like asking uh I don't even think anyone ever asked the question how will social media apps handle Photoshop?

1:55:59

Photoshop was Photoshop outputs were just immediately the tool existed prior to social media.

1:56:07

So it just proliferated immediately.

1:56:10

>> I mean speaking of Photoshop uh Photoshop has had to grapple with the existence of generative images uh through partnerships through rolling their own.

1:56:20

Um, how important is it to you to play in the market of like the enterprise audio workflows, do deals, partnerships?

1:56:30

what we saw in the text in the at least in code at least um every coding platform or and there were a whole bunch of new ones like there's been a real battle for the IDE and I'm wondering if there's like a battle coming for the um this the the the top end of the music production workflow.

1:56:53

Um, I think there there probably will be a battle, but it will be not nearly the bloodbath that it will be in other domains.

1:56:59

And it's just because the average piece of music today is produced in 800 different tools.

1:57:02

And so, >> and everybody has all of the tools.

1:57:05

And so, I actually don't think it's entirely reasonable to think that there will be one tool that uses up all of your screen time.

1:57:12

And like that's going to be the thing that you produce 99% of your music in if you are a true professional.

1:57:16

And so there um the the end goal is the perfect song and and a little bit less the journey of how you got there. >> Yep. Interesting.

1:57:27

>> Code it's like VS Code is just open all the time and I don't want to have another editor.

1:57:31

And if you like talk to people who develop iOS, they're pissed off because they have two editors.

1:57:35

Um but it's not nearly the same 800 different tools that it is in music. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, that makes a ton. >> Makes sense.

1:57:42

Uh this is super interesting.

1:57:44

Thank you for uh coming on to uh to break it down. Yeah, this was awesome. Thanks so much.

1:57:48

>> I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna use Sunno uh to try to make uh bedtime with the the my three and a halfyear-old a little bit easier later tonight. So, uh I'll report back. >> I'm I'm excited.

1:58:00

>> What What are What are the What What are some of your favorite prompts that you use with uh your kid or kids?

1:58:06

>> Um you know, a lot of them are songs.

1:58:06

I have a one-year-old and four-year-old.

1:58:11

It's like still too early for the one-year-old.

1:58:12

A lot of them are um songs about him in fantastical situations.

1:58:17

Like my most favorite one is just was like last winter after um the the Zamboni driver at the local ice rink let him like ride in the Zamboni and so it was like like a whole album of songs about him riding in a Zamboni doing all sorts of crazy stuff.

1:58:29

Um and yeah, they're like very special and personal and I do go back to those and and um gosh, yeah, I think this is wonderful.

1:58:38

Sometimes we joke if we were a kids app, we'd have five times the revenue that we do.

1:58:42

You know, it's just like um kids is like the most straightforward way to get me to par with my money.

1:58:45

I'm sure you're the same way.

1:58:48

>> Totally totally agree. Soono kids.

1:58:48

Maybe the iPad the iPad app. >> Yeah. >> Coming next year. >> No, not actually.

1:58:54

[laughter] >> But who knows?

1:58:56

>> Uh so great to meet you, Mikey.

1:58:56

Thank you for coming on and all the progress. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. >> Bye.

1:59:01

>> Uh let me tell you about numeral.

1:59:01

com sales tax on autopilot.

1:59:04

Spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance.

1:59:07

Uh speaking of kids, >> so nice to drop the HQ. Yeah, drop the HQ. >> RIP to HQ.

1:59:14

>> Speaking of kids, I want your review of this way to decide how to buy a house.

1:59:22

So, in New York City in 2023, this real estate agent worked with a couple who wanted to purchase purchase an apartment on the Upper West Side of Manhattan.

1:59:33

But they wanted their Pokemon obsessed six-year-old son to have a say. How?

1:59:40

by playing Pokemon in each neighborhood before his parents would commit to a purchase.

1:59:45

We spent an afternoon covering four neighborhoods as the child played the game and caught Pokémon characters.

1:59:52

It turns out that Central Park West was a hot spot for Pokémon Go characters that day.

1:59:57

And we toured a two-bedroom co-op that was listed for about $2 million.

2:00:02

The child ended up catching a Snorlax as soon as we stepped inside Central Park.

2:00:07

A Snorlax is a blue green character that looks like a bear and is apparently extremely rare to find because it spends the majority of its life asleep.

2:00:14

The child is screaming, jumping up and down.

2:00:19

He was so excited to find it.

2:00:19

Although my clients looked at seven other apartments that day, no other area came close in terms of Pokemon action, so they knew that apartment was the one.

2:00:29

They wrote up an offer that same day for the full asking price. What's your review? Is that a good way?

2:00:33

Is that cute and adorable to bring your kids? >> I think it's cute. >> Or is it weird?

2:00:39

>> It potentially could lead to total heartbreak, you know, if the kids just like, "Yeah, this is the the dry spot now.

2:00:47

>> This is a Pokemon hot spot."

2:00:47

And then they're then the Pokemon dry up a week in after moving in. >> Good take.

2:00:52

>> And they're like, "What are we doing here?

2:00:53

I know we just moved in here, but we got to I I got to get closer to the Pokemon.

2:00:58

>> We got to We Mom and Dad, we got to book a wander.

2:01:00

We got to find our happy place.

2:01:03

Find our Pokemon hunting spot.

2:01:06

Book a wander with inspiring views, hotel grade amenities, dream beds, top tier cleaning, and 24/7 concier service.

2:01:10

It's a vacation home, but better, folks. Um, yeah. I don't know.

2:01:14

I I think uh I think I like the idea of bringing the kid, the six-year-old into the into the house purchase pro process, but uh let's leave the phones at home and let's develop a taste for uh let's become snobs. How about that?

2:01:29

six-year-old become a snob and say, "No, I I couldn't live anywhere but >> I don't like the cafe."

2:01:35

>> The Upper East Side because I have strong opinions about this. Get into the lore.

2:01:40

What happened on this street?

2:01:42

That's what the six-year-old should do.

2:01:44

I'm fine to delegate to the six-year-old, but not to Niantic, the company behind Pokémon Go.

2:01:48

Anyway, uh our next guest is waiting for us in the reream waiting room.

2:01:52

We have Ahmad from Mercury. How you doing? Good to see you. Welcome to the show. >> Great to see you. >> Hey, good to be back. how you doing? >> Great.

2:02:00

>> It's been a little bit.

2:02:01

>> Yeah, it's been a while. >> Little bit. Great back.

2:02:03

>> Give us an update on what's going on in your world and then I want to just talk about all the crazy stuff that's happening in tech.

2:02:08

Honestly, >> yeah, let's go for it.

2:02:11

Uh, we just announced uh today on on Fortune term sheet that we hit three years of profitability. >> Whoa, whoa, whoa.

2:02:20

>> I'm excited about our >> hitting all the sound effects. >> Founder is nice.

2:02:27

That is why >> yeah full founder mode.

2:02:29

Uh yes it's been a >> one weirdick VCs hate this VCs hate this one weird trick man area man discovers profitability. >> Congratulations.

2:02:40

>> It's actually really funny.

2:02:40

You know I love my VCs but there's definitely every every board meeting they're like okay you know how can we spend this money a little bit faster?

2:02:46

But [laughter] >> I was actually talking to some CEOs just like last this week and yeah most of the time like spending more money doesn't mean you grow faster.

2:02:55

And that's kind of like what I was, you know, trying to celebrate with this milestone that like it's, you know, you, we're building software companies here.

2:03:03

At least we are, not everyone. U spend money to grow.

2:03:08

>> I got I got a bit for you.

2:03:08

You're in a strong financial position.

2:03:09

You should put out a press release say we don't need a backs stop.

2:03:14

>> We don't need a government back stop.

2:03:14

We are [laughter] we are proper.

2:03:18

>> I didn't know there was a back stop available to me.

2:03:21

Well, >> I was ready to use I was ready to when when those comments started floating Wednesday, I was ready to use the analogy of like what would happen if there was a government back stop on venturebacked corporate cards.

2:03:33

>> I mean I mean truly you are you are a bank and you and you've obviously lived through you live through the financial crisis like >> can't say he's a bank. >> No. Okay. Okay.

2:03:41

But we're not partner with >> partner but but you're obviously intimately familiar with the financial system.

2:03:48

Uh do you have any uh do you have any unique lessons or stories that you tell from the financial crisis?

2:03:53

Uh warning signs that you pull from even just like movies or books or something that you keep going back to is like, you know, we want to stay [clears throat] sharp on this.

2:04:04

>> Um you know, I think like building trust in what Mercury does has always been it's actually probably the hardest thing we do, right?

2:04:12

Because you know, we're asking a lot from people.

2:04:14

We're storing all their money for their business.

2:04:15

And you know, it's like I had this conversation when we first launched Mercury with someone who'd raised $10 million and he was like this is more money than I've ever seen in my whole life.

2:04:24

I'm not going to give it to a startup banking service.

2:04:26

Uh and now we have customers that have more than 100 million with Mercury.

2:04:29

So like building that trust is always so important and you know obviously I don't know which financial crisis you you were referring [laughter] to 2008 actually but but I I do want to talk about what is like the SV crisis you know um take us through the SV yeah what what uh what were the biggest lessons from the SVB crisis?

2:04:52

Yeah, I mean the biggest thing for us was uh it can't just be all talk, right?

2:04:58

Like if I you know and I was talking to founders saying like hey you should trust Mercury and they'd be like oh man like SVB is a 40-year-old company and they just like you know >> are dying.

2:05:08

Uh why should we trust Mercury?

2:05:10

And then you know what we did and what we've continued to kind of invest in is to make it so it's not just about trusting Mercury.

2:05:15

It's about like having products that that deliver like trust.

2:05:20

So, you know, we have like accelerated FDIC insurance, which is, you know, u >> I guess on the website we publish 5 million, but it's actually most accounts get way more than 5 million.

2:05:28

So, almost all the deposits that sit at Mercury are FDIC insured.

2:05:33

>> Uh, and that was the big thing.

2:05:33

I think SVB was at 80ish% uninsured deposits.

2:05:38

Um, and >> and that's just because just for anybody that's not super familiar, that's because they had standard two and a4 million dollar of FDIC insurance, but almost every account had well beyond that because >> Yeah, exactly.

2:05:52

business, especially especially VC back businesses, you know, >> and also in a zero interest rate environment.

2:05:57

In a zero interest rate environment, you're like, I'm just going to keep it in the checking account.

2:06:00

I raised a $5 million seat.

2:06:01

I'll just literally keep it in the checking account because like what's the point?

2:06:05

and if I move it to some other vehicle, I'm going to earn 0. 5% or 0. 1%.

2:06:07

Now it's now it's a different environment. >> Yeah.

2:06:11

What was it always the plan to get profitable, stay profitable as fast as sort of reasonably possible?

2:06:16

I think like >> or did that happen?

2:06:18

If people are trusting you as like a financial platform institution, it it's not exactly comforting to know that you're burning money and your financial institution.

2:06:29

>> I think the other, you know, the other thing that was part of SB was, you know, like people just had so little time to move all of their banking operations and it's just like there's so much reliant on a bank account for a business.

2:06:38

Uh, >> and >> it was such a funny I was I was with SVB.

2:06:43

It collapsed and I was like, I need to go someplace less risky.

2:06:45

I'm going to First Republic. >> Yeah.

2:06:48

And then [laughter] that collapsed too.

2:06:49

And I was like, but that's that feels like an even old I don't know if which one's actually older.

2:06:52

I think First Republic was older, but it was this odd >> was a little I believe >> total total reputation of the Lindy principle.

2:07:01

It was like actually go to Mercury.

2:07:04

>> Yeah, would have been better. Sorry.

2:07:06

>> I was going to say I think one of the parts of that was like, you know, you rely so much of operations and it's even more extreme for Mercury customers because, you know, we do more than banking.

2:07:16

So we do uh people's credit cards and invoicing and yeah we've been building more and more features and our customers are reliant on a broader set of features.

2:07:24

So >> you know I think part of like being profitable and sustaining profitability is being you know making that promise to our customers that this is like something that's going to stick around.

2:07:33

So if they use us it's not like you know one day we don't raise a funding round or or you know whatever there's like a crash or something and people have to like worry about that.

2:07:41

So it's definitely like a core part of that kind of having that trusted service. >> Yeah.

2:07:46

Where uh where are you guys getting the most leverage from AI? >> Yeah, good question.

2:07:51

Um yeah, the biggest thing we've done is like back office stuff.

2:07:55

There's just a to run a fintech, especially uh kind of on the banking side, there's just a ton of people that have to do a lot of back office things.

2:08:02

uh and you know it's like you have to upload a formation document and someone has to review it and you know there's all of these things are very ripe for u AI to just you know smooth smooth it out either like automated 100% or automate it 80% so that like a human can just review the review the answers.

2:08:20

So yeah lots of stuff on compliance risk back office is has been our biggest investment.

2:08:24

We've got lots of you know I'm not uh I guess a lot of what we do at Mercury is like not kind of follow fads or whatever.

2:08:30

So we have we've done a bunch of things that are userfacing but you know we try to add like little bits of value here and there.

2:08:38

So yeah we have a chat bot so you can ask it questions and that's been actually >> actually it's solved like 40% of tickets uh customer questions are just like you know hey when's you know how long does it take for a wire to settle in like >> that yeah those kinds of questions.

2:08:50

>> that yeah those kinds of questions. So, and that's just a better customer experience than you know we think about how and that's 40% over the baseline of like because most most uh most customer support systems like if you email in it would just previously do like fuzzy database search to be like oh it seems

2:09:09

like you're asking about this FAQ you got a 40% lift on top of that because you were already doing best practices I imagine >> um something like that >> yes it's a bit more complicated because we still have that email system when people email it So this did replace like the suggested topics in like the live messaging system. >> So yeah,

2:09:29

>> So yeah, the suggested answers was way way less because people don't like reading those suggested things like they just want an answer and they want to move on.

2:09:38

>> What about on the cost side?

2:09:38

Uh we were talking to Ivan notion.

2:09:40

He said that uh his inference bill was actually having an effect on his gross margins.

2:09:45

You've remained profitable.

2:09:48

But if I'm looking deeper in your financials, will I see an uptick in inference bills based on actually is that something that you're actually trying to manage as you stay profitable or has it been low enough that it just >> Yeah.

2:10:05

>> Yeah. I think like it's wildly different I think using it in back back office context where you're sort of processing forms and PDFs and things like that versus Ivan where people are like I'm going to generate you know trillions of tokens because I'm just making long documents and totally on the back office side it's mostly been a cost saving

2:10:23

right like you're uh you're kind of giving leverage to humans and um >> or you're moving off of like a mechanical turk or scale or something like that for whatever workload it is >> exly uh and yeah on the userfacing side It's, you know, I think a big difference for us is, you know, we have 200,000 plus customers, but it's not that many customers, right? Like, uh, a lot of

2:10:41

Like, uh, a lot of like consumer services have millions of customers.

2:10:45

Like each of our customers is obviously like much more valuable.

2:10:48

>> And also, you probably don't have like a ton of DA DA I mean, you probably have a lot of DAUs, but you it's not the app that people open when they wake up, you know?

2:10:56

It's a great >> It's much more utility than productivity, right?

2:11:00

people are actually kind of open. Exactly.

2:11:01

And so and so the inference is just going to be so much lower than if Instagram is all of a sudden being like we're going to run an LLM query on every on every you know photo that gets uploaded.

2:11:13

It's like okay well that's a huge amount of inference.

2:11:16

>> What uh >> yeah and we're doing more and more though.

2:11:18

So you know potentially uh you know when you're churning through all these transactions will go up. I don't expect for us.

2:11:23

We also make way more on a per customer basis than actually I don't know about notion but than like most proumer consumer type things.

2:11:29

Uh so I think it would net out that it would be a smallish percentage.

2:11:35

>> Yeah, that makes awesome.

2:11:36

>> What are you what are you seeing across your >> angel portfolio?

2:11:42

>> Like you've been you've been investing like like >> I guess for context I've I've done about 350 investments in the last 10 years.

2:11:47

Uh I [laughter] don't know if I need a go for that.

2:11:54

Uh and I just actually announced uh earlier this year uh my I have like a formal angel fund now.

2:12:01

It was a 26 million uh kind of angel fund.

2:12:04

I mean I'm still mostly investing in the same way.

2:12:05

Uh I mostly invest because it's just fun to talk to founders and I guess the same reason you guys run this podcast.

2:12:10

It's like interesting to talk to founders and learn learn new ideas.

2:12:14

learn learn new ideas. uh uh you know it's all it's very AI focused right now as you can imagine uh you know what's I think AI is kind of fun to invest in because like every 6 months what you're investing in like changes a lot right like for a while it was kind of dev

2:12:31

tools in AI and now I feel like that's done uh so most of what I see right now is kind of deeper vertical uh kind of B2B applications of AI um >> do you think AI gives people the permission to invest in more unique categories because basically like there there used

2:12:54

to be like a whole set of categories that were just kind of like small businesses or industrials or some niche some weird niche thing and they would just be kind of off limits because it would be like oh no no no like the real money is made in in fintech the real money is made in maybe maybe the edtech

2:13:11

but that one's difficult or adtech or marketing mart attack, you know, it's like there were these easy themes, but with AI, you can go and and actually put together a pitch around something that's um maybe more or less untouched by tech and actually generate deck. >> It's definitely like a you know this

2:13:30

>> It's definitely like a you know this extension of the software is eating the world kind of vibe that Mark Andre talks about, right?

2:13:38

>> A little bit more of the world on the edges.

2:13:40

>> Like 10 10ish years ago, it was all like social and mobile, right?

2:13:44

everything like even Mercury is like 10 years ago it was probably off limits to like try to make something that went after the banking market and I remember when I started in 2017 it was like >> you know it sounded weird right like it

2:13:59

was it was it was not something that was done uh >> I think the thing that AI does is like open up labor right like in robotics it opens up physical labor and then in the case of um kind of the uh white collar workers. It opens up like human uh kind

2:14:14

It opens up like human uh kind of intellectual labor.

2:14:16

Uh and that is like a whole set of categories.

2:14:19

So you know people generally VCs hate services firms, right?

2:14:23

Like it's like they'll be like oh that's like a services firm.

2:14:24

But now like services firms are cool.

2:14:26

You like [laughter] oh yeah it's human it's human AI uh plus human services firms are like the the thing that a lot of people are investing in.

2:14:35

Ideally trying to get to like fully human only uh sorry fully AI only.

2:14:40

Uh but yeah, it's definitely like opened up a lot of industries that wouldn't have been interesting from a investment perspective.

2:14:48

>> Do you do you think people have been overly bearish on on SAS?

2:14:50

It's you know notable that uh OpenAI uses everything from Salesforce to Slack to Qualrix and I imagine you use a lot of on on your business.

2:15:03

I don't think anybody's out there saying you know I'm going to vibe code a bank.

2:15:08

you know, even if they could even if you could somehow build that on like a banking as a service platform, it's like >> the the the level, you know, the amount of work you need to do to maintain a vibecoded bank on top of, you know, just doesn't make sense.

2:15:21

>> Generally, I mean, I think uh there will be a wave of disruption that will happen in SAS, but I don't think the answer will be everyone's just making their own end to end like Salesforce like that just that sounds ridiculous to me.

2:15:34

just that sounds ridiculous to me. I do I mean I hope someone builds a much better salesforce uh but it'll still yeah and maybe their pricing won't be like per seat and it'll be like per sale or whatever but I think the category will exist the shape of the category will change the business model will change but I don't think the answer is everyone's building their own salesforce

2:15:52

like that just that just sounds inefficient like it just sounds ridiculous to me but uh there will be like I think actually like the incremental new applications people build will actually make will just be more applications right like if the number of vendors you had was like 10 and like you're paying a lot like maybe you'll have another 90 internal apps that like people just made for like small use cases. So like the amount of

2:16:11

small use cases. So like the amount of software people will use will go up I think because of VIP coding uh and the ease of coding but I don't think like these big categories are going to just disappear because like people can now make it themselves >> and do you think do you think companies

2:16:25

will go multi-product sooner and are you seeing that across the portfolio if like the engineering actual engineering hours are less to go from you know one product to a second to a third that that will just encourage you know more companies >> I think it's going to be like industry specific fake. Uh I mean I think a big

2:16:41

Uh I mean I think a big story about fintech in the last couple of years has been like every fintech going multi product right uh I think it's partly because you know when we started in 2019 like no one was building like a better uh neo bank so that's you know that's all it took like our first product was a bank account and it was like really good.

2:17:02

Uh now to compete against Mercury, you would have to have you know bill pay and credit cards and invoicing because like that's just what people look for like they look for more of a bundle product.

2:17:12

Uh so I think it depends where you're competing and in to some extent it gets a little easier because you can just make products quicker.

2:17:20

Uh but making like amazing products is is never easy, right?

2:17:22

Like I think you just like like the quality and craft and all of that like do matter and yeah we try to invest a lot like when we make a new product it's never easy like it takes a lot to make an amazing product.

2:17:38

>> Uh but when you're like very new to a category and like almost everything in AI is like very new you can build more quicker and then like kind of refine it over time.

2:17:46

Uh but it's a good question.

2:17:48

And I think a lot of the ways people will end up competing with incumbents, right?

2:17:52

Like I've heard a ton of like I don't know why we're picking on Salesforce, but I've heard a lot of like how do we beat Salesforce kind of strategies and a lot of them are like oh actually we're going to bundle like AISD and some you know X and Y and like we're going to make it like a much more fully featured kind of version of like Salesforce.

2:18:08

Uh uh so I think like when you compete against incumbents like doing a bundle strategy sometimes is like a better strategy.

2:18:16

So like we'll see that play out. >> Yeah. >> Very cool.

2:18:19

Well, congratulations to the whole team three-year milestone.

2:18:21

Uh looking forward to the fourth, the fifth, sixth, and hopefully hundreds of years of Mercury profitability.

2:18:28

You got to get past the the SVB mark, become the the long [laughter] longest standing >> institution.

2:18:36

Funny, they were started like a year before I was born.

2:18:38

So I have this like exact mental model of like they were started 42 years ago. That's amazing.

2:18:46

>> Maybe maybe I'll stop thinking about that one when they're going to further down. >> Very cool.

2:18:50

But yeah, really appreciate you having me on.

2:18:53

>> Yeah, we'll talk to the whole team. >> Have a good one. >> Cheers. >> Bye. >> Bye.

2:18:57

>> You heard about the importance of AI agents for customer service.

2:18:59

You got to head over to Finn.

2:19:01

AI, the number one AI agent for customer service.

2:19:03

Number one in performance benchmarks, number one in competitive, number one world champion >> ranking on G2.

2:19:08

And he was also mentioning better CRM. Why? Why not try out Adio?

2:19:13

Customer relationship magic.

2:19:16

Adio is the AI native serum that builds, scales, and grows your company to the next level.

2:19:19

Brett Adcock fired back at hype around 1x presumably.

2:19:23

Figure CEO Brett Adcock says his quote major competitors are using tea operation human operators in their videos and calls it deceiving.

2:19:35

Does will he call out 1X by name?

2:19:37

Will he call out Elon by name?

2:19:40

Will he call out unitry by name?

2:19:42

Let's find out by watching this clip.

2:19:46

His analogy, it's like if a self-driving car pulled up and we found out there was somebody um from Tennessee, >> a demonstration of a robot doing something that's like not teley opt or um like coded and what you're seeing now in the world is like I would say most major competitor to us at this point are putting out most of their content and updates teley opt from a human.

2:20:05

And I think it's like perhaps some of the most deceiving things I've ever seen.

2:20:12

[laughter] It's like uh if I was driving a self-driving car, if a self-driving car pulled up next to us and we found out there was some guy from Tennessee driving it, we'd both be like, "That's uh that's not what I thought this would look like."

2:20:21

What you want to see is >> So the funny thing is that [laughter] Tyler, why are you laughing at that, Tyler?

2:20:27

>> Well, that's like exactly how self-driving cars work right now. [laughter] >> Yeah.

2:20:33

uh teley op is actually maybe critical to the development of full self-driving cars and uh maybe used by all the top companies all the time.

2:20:40

Uh yes, I mean it is odd that like >> I thought that I thought it I thought it was I think it's like a key it's it's the key enabler for 1x to actually get robots in homes and getting them to a point where they can do valuable work. Yeah. >> Right.

2:20:58

And they're gonna be taking a loss on >> they're going to be taking a loss on that.

2:21:02

They're charging like $2 an hour, but that's going to be, you know, a flywheel for them to to get more and more training data.

2:21:10

>> Oh, the founder of Oneax actually replied, uh, I think Dar, that's the founder, right? Um, >> no, Darp founder.

2:21:18

>> Oh, but he's just the loudest voice on X, so I I give him all the credit. He created one X.

2:21:22

It would be nothing without him.

2:21:23

Anyway, uh he says, "So basically Whimo, there were two operators to every car when Whimo started."

2:21:30

It is interesting that um yeah, Whimo has never that I know of, they've never really like published data on how many operators they have per car.

2:21:40

I think that that would actually give people a lot of reassurance around like, okay, these cars are driving around.

2:21:46

Are there people overwatching them?

2:21:48

And then you just get to a point where you say, "Okay, yeah, there's there's 10,000 operators for 5,000 cars."

2:21:53

And then next year there's 8,000 operators for 5,000 cars.

2:21:58

And eventually there's 5,000 operators for 5,000 cars.

2:21:59

And then eventually there's 1,000 operators for 5,000 cars.

2:22:02

And eventually there's one operator for 5,000 cars.

2:22:04

But it's just a slow process of getting people up to speed on the on the new technology.

2:22:10

And it just gives people uh like confidence at every turn, much like the confidence that I feel when I go to sleep on my eight sleep. How'd you feel?

2:22:20

How'd you sleep last night, Jordy? Uh 88 from me. 7 hours 38 minutes.

2:22:25

I want to hear if that soundboard still has my favorite song on it. >> Boom. >> You got an 88. I'll give it to you. >> Wait, did we tie? >> Yeah, I got an 83. >> Oh, 83. Okay. >> Rough one. Rough one.

2:22:37

>> Well, we have breaking news from the Pope.

2:22:39

He chimed in on the AI bubble.

2:22:42

Some bub talk from the [laughter] from the papacy. >> A papal bull.

2:22:46

Is that a top signal >> on the bub talk? No. No.

2:22:48

It's not it's not on the bubble. It's not on the bubble. It's not on the bubble.

2:22:51

It is is about it is on the is from the pope though who I should be following.

2:22:56

Why am I not following the pope?

2:22:57

Uh tech technological innovation can be a form of p of participation in the divine act of creation.

2:23:05

It carries an ethical and spiritual weight.

2:23:08

for every design choice expresses a vision of humanity.

2:23:13

The church therefore calls all builders of AI to cultivate moral discernment as a fundamental part of their work to develop systems that reflect justice, solidarity, and a genuine reverence for life. I like that. >> Good line.

2:23:31

>> Liquidity thinks it's AI generated slop. >> Very bearish. >> No. Yes, he used one M dash.

2:23:36

Like the M dash is not a tellt tell sign.

2:23:40

You can just use one if you're just hammering on the keyboard.

2:23:45

Or you can just write a note and then in the edit someone can use an M dash. I don't know. Is the Pope one-shotted? We'll never know. I think this is fine.

2:23:55

I think this is a nice little call to action.

2:23:56

What What do you think, Tyler?

2:23:58

You put this in here, right? >> Uh yeah.

2:24:00

I mean, what are you guys doing if if the Pope comes out and says like, "I actually don't care about AI margins.

2:24:06

>> [laughter] >> What are you doing?

2:24:08

>> Uh, I would be extremely bullish on that.

2:24:09

What I'm worried about is the pope coming out and being like actually like I've discovered some novel physics.

2:24:15

[laughter] I've been chatting I've been talking to Grock and I've been talking to Chad GPT for just like thousands of hours.

2:24:20

>> People don't think about the recursiveness in the Bible. >> Yeah. No. Yeah.

2:24:23

Recursiveness in the Bible. Actually, it's crazy.

2:24:25

You know, I'm the pope of the Catholic Church, but I've been getting into polytheism recently.

2:24:30

I went down a rabbit hole and I think there might be more than one god.

2:24:34

I mean, there's multiple gods.

2:24:37

>> Uh, AB in the chat says, "Got to get the pope on Vanta." Tot to totally agree. >> 100%.

2:24:42

>> I I think it would be the the it'd be interesting if the Pope started coming out and said, "We're exploring taking equity stakes in technology companies like uh Fanny May and and Freddy Mack." >> Yeah.

2:24:52

Well, >> we got to get the Pope on bezel because your bezel concier is available now to source any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch.

2:24:59

Uh >> yeah, the Pope already has the the drop top sixwheel G Wagon. >> Is it six wheels? >> I think so. >> No way.

2:25:08

I always thought it was a rules.

2:25:10

No, it is a G Wagon, but there's I feel like he has a wild set of cars. Uh it's >> No, it's not. It's not six wheels.

2:25:16

>> No, it's not six wheels.

2:25:16

Six wheels would be so >> But it is a one of one.

2:25:19

And they made it they made an EV. >> I love it.

2:25:22

Um speaking of EVs, the Ford F-150 Lightning is potentially going out of production. Um no way.

2:25:28

It it it it is it is close to failing.

2:25:31

Uh the Wall Street Journal has a story on the front page talking about um where is this? I can pull that up.

2:25:41

[laughter] The Ford F1 uh Ford Ways ending electric F-150 truck.

2:25:48

Uh executives at Ford Motor are in active discussions, active talks. They're in talks.

2:25:55

>> Active talks >> uh about scrapping the electric version of the F-150.

2:25:58

people familiar with the matter said which would make the unprofitable truck the US's first major EV casualty.

2:26:06

Maybe this is Do you think this is all triggered by uh TJ Parker? >> Possible.

2:26:13

>> World famous venture capitalist and founder himself.

2:26:16

He he bought a Ford, but he didn't buy an electric one. He bought a Raptor R.

2:26:22

>> Why they [snorts] should make Why don't they make the electric one like the Raptor R?

2:26:26

They >> like with an internal combustion engine. >> Exactly.

2:26:30

I feel like if they want people to buy the electric version of the truck, they should give it like an exhaust and an engine and gas. >> Real engine note. >> Yeah. Real engine note.

2:26:41

>> When I had my Raptor, I >> And more cylinders.

2:26:44

>> People anytime I was on a call in the car. >> Yeah.

2:26:47

>> People would assume that I was driving a sports car because there's so much >> engine noise in the cabin. It was ridiculous. >> Yeah.

2:26:54

I mean, the Raptor R has how many cylinders does it have? Is it an eight a V8? It is, right?

2:27:00

>> I thought it was a >> So So it has It has eight cylinders.

2:27:01

The The F-150 Lightning had zero cylinders.

2:27:08

>> That could be why it's not selling very well.

2:27:10

>> The The Ford Raptor R had 5. 2 L in its engine.

2:27:15

The F-150 Lightning had a zero L engine because it didn't have one.

2:27:18

So uh it makes sense why this uh has been struggling.

2:27:23

Um, and we will we'll see what they wind up doing.

2:27:26

>> We got to change the subject because all this Raptor talks got me thinking about getting one again and >> pull the trigger.

2:27:32

Uh, well, if you think it's bullish or bearish that Ford is pulling the Raptor, no, they're going they're doubling down on the Raptor.

2:27:41

They're pulling the lightning. Uh, head over to public.

2:27:42

com investing for those that take it seriously.

2:27:44

Multiasset investing, industry leading yields.

2:27:46

They're trusted by millions. Um, quadrillion.

2:27:49

What else is going on in the markets?

2:27:51

>> Hero Natada says, "My inbox is full of people breathlessly trying to interpret this."

2:27:56

And it is one-year look at spy. >> It's over. >> A slight dip.

2:28:02

>> You can interpret this in two seconds. It's over.

2:28:04

It's just completely over. The bubble popped.

2:28:05

Now it's ready to start rebuilding. It >> was a good run.

2:28:08

>> We can go up from here >> because the bubble has popped. >> You're welcome. Yep. >> It was rough. We got through it.

2:28:12

We are now >> It's almost a weekend.

2:28:15

>> We are now past the trough of disillusionment.

2:28:17

We're in the plateau of productivity. >> It's good. >> That's what I see. >> It's good. It's good.

2:28:20

And and pretty soon Oh, the stocks have already stopped trading. So, we're safe now.

2:28:26

>> We're [laughter] safe.

2:28:26

It can't hurt us anymore.

2:28:28

>> The economy can't hurt you on the weekend.

2:28:30

>> Um there's there's so there's so many more charts.

2:28:33

It's really chart talk time.

2:28:34

Consumer sentiment almost back to its record low.

2:28:37

People are not happy with consumer sentiment right now. >> You see this too?

2:28:41

Uh >> which Bank of America. >> Yes.

2:28:45

just uh as of yesterday just fully recovered from the global financial crisis. >> Wow.

2:28:52

>> Took 19 >> to the day and then it's like back in another crisis. Can you imagine?

2:28:58

>> It's like no, we just dug our way out of the hole. Uh no, fantastic.

2:29:00

Uh famously backstopped by none other than Warren Buffett.

2:29:04

Um >> yeah, it's been interesting to follow.

2:29:06

I mean Birkshshire Hathaway is green this week.

2:29:12

>> He's got so much cash.

2:29:12

That's so much >> building cash pile. >> So it's $1. 07 trillion.

2:29:18

>> Maybe the least AGI pilled person in the world.

2:29:21

[laughter] >> Cash pills.

2:29:24

>> Imagine if imagine if uh Birkshshire Hathway just comes in and and just acquires like 90% of Open AI.

2:29:33

>> You like those authentic greenbacks.

2:29:33

Ag What's What's the I for uh authentic greenback incentives? I don't know.

2:29:39

Um >> uh Dan Daniel E says commenting >> so Nvidia put out >> something on Wednesday said as I've long said China is nanconds behind America and AI it it's vital that America wins by racing ahead and winning developers worldwide >> Daniel says this is an insane statement America is more than nanconds ahead of China and AI the actual gap is months and it would be larger too if Nvidia stopped the flow of advanced GPUs to China.

2:30:12

So, putting >> him in the truth zone.

2:30:16

>> Um, >> or some more information on the SNAP deal.

2:30:21

Snap gets 400 million, which is greater than Perplexity's total revenue.

2:30:26

>> Snap uh gives nothing except access to >> Wait, wait, it's more what?

2:30:31

They're they're they're paying more than their revenue.

2:30:37

>> How How Wait, how does that work?

2:30:39

Perplexity is taking VC dollars, okay, >> giving them to Snap for distribution.

2:30:46

>> There's also there's also an equity.

2:30:48

>> All the SNAP holders are sorry, this is extremely confusing. Let's read this.

2:30:53

Uh, the deal looks incredibly in Snap's favor.

2:30:55

Snap gets $400 million greater than Perplexity total revenue.

2:30:58

Now, Signal is saying this is most likely 399 million of Perplexity equity to Snap, not cash.

2:31:07

So there is a question about how much of it is cash um versus So yeah, the uh the the raise VC dollars, give it to SNAP is one theory, but it is possible that they're just giving $400 million of equity like a stock grant.

2:31:22

>> I think I think it's a it's some split.

2:31:25

Yeah, >> I don't know if they they published it, >> but S like like Signal's thesis is that it's it's 399 million of equity and like 1 million of cash.

2:31:32

And and so it's basically just like like we want distribution in Snap and we're willing to give you equity to pay for it because 400 million on 20 billion is 2% of the company, right? Something like that. >> Yeah, >> it's crazy. 2% of the company.

2:31:45

Snap gives nothing except access to an unloved AI chat.

2:31:49

Perplexity gets indirect access to zero income teens. [laughter] Wow.

2:31:54

Sasha is not a fan of this deal.

2:31:56

Uh Spiegel negotiation master.

2:31:58

go back to the conversation we were having I think Saturday.

2:32:01

We were >> uh we had a couple hour drive and we were basically doing a podcast with no no mics.

2:32:08

But I was saying I was surprised that Snapchat has not figured out a way to just monetize all the capital >> that a lot of these uh consumer AI companies have given their massive massive user base.

2:32:19

Well, well, it's because it's because the the numbers are like all flipped around like like Snap is is a I think like way more mature on all the business metrics and yet worth half Perplexity, right?

2:32:35

Like look at the look at the difference in terms of like business metrics, DAUs, uh page.

2:32:42

>> Perplexity does not want will not want people comping it to snap in their next financing. Yeah, it's odd. I don't know.

2:32:52

It's it's some sort of like uh you know dance to actually uh integrate these two things.

2:32:57

Uh TAN uh says Snap will be integrating Perplexity directly into Snapchat's chat interface.

2:33:05

Perplexity will play will pay Snap $400 million over a year in a mix of cash and stock as part of the deal and gets access to Snap's 900 million monthly active users.

2:33:15

A in the chat, Snapchat's gonna accidentally build AGI just trying to make the dog filter blink realistically. [laughter] >> I love it.

2:33:26

>> You think Tyler is at a pathway to to AGI?

2:33:30

>> Well, I I mean, look, Spiegel I mean, Spiegel might be back. >> You think so?

2:33:35

>> I mean, look, we know someone who was previously >> What do you think?

2:33:40

>> What do you think he actually gets?

2:33:40

What do you think he actually gets?

2:33:42

I I have a lot of trouble understanding what perplexity is because it's it's it's somewhat of an application layer company, but a lot of the APIs, a lot of the foundation model products like do deep research.

2:33:55

Some of them have news hooks already.

2:33:57

So if my choice like like Apple could have gone to Perplexi, they went to Gemini.

2:34:02

went to Gemini. like does Gemini give you search results the way Perplexi like Perplexi's initial pitch was it's a LLM but there's no cut off and we'll search the web for you I feel like most of the LLMs just do that out of the box now and so like what are you getting when you

2:34:19

partner with Perplexity over something else what's the differentiate >> you're getting cash that's why I think a lot no I think a lot of this deal had to have been cash because I think if I'm Evan Spiegel and I'm looking at >> like perplexities revenue and user base relative to his own. >> Yes. >> Yes.

2:34:36

>> And you're not >> okay.

2:34:37

So, help me understand this math.

2:34:42

If I'm if I'm Apple, how many how many DA use does Apple have?

2:34:46

Is it It's like the same size as Snapchat, right?

2:34:49

In terms of like actual iPhone users, it's got to be a billion, right?

2:34:54

There's like a billion iPhone users or something like that.

2:34:59

>> I think it's more uh like 1. 5. >> Okay.

2:35:01

So, and then Snapchat has like 400. Oh, wait.

2:35:04

No, Snapchat has almost a billion.

2:35:06

Uh, MAUs, but DAUs is like 400, right? >> Uh, yeah, like 470. >> Okay. So, let's say that.

2:35:13

So, let's say that Snapchat has roughly 40% as many users as Apple.

2:35:17

So, it's 40% to Apple's, you know, billion plus 1. 5 billion.

2:35:21

Uh, Apple is paying Google 1 billion per Snapchat could potentially go and pay Google for access to Gemini 40% as much, right?

2:35:39

Because they're 40% the size.

2:35:40

So, they could pay 400 million and get the exact same quality of of AI product that Apple is vending.

2:35:45

You'd think because Apple says, "Hey, or Google goes to Apple and says, "Hey, you want to service a billion users? That'll be $1 billion.

2:35:54

Oh, you want to service 400 million users?

2:35:55

That'll be $400 million because it's billion because it's basically a dollar a user. I don't know.

2:36:02

>> Google's basically charging a dollar a user.

2:36:05

>> But perplexity is in the opposite scenario where they're paying for the right as opposed to the other way around. >> Yeah.

2:36:10

The definition of perplexity is inability to deal with or understand something complicated or unaccountable. >> It's perplexing. I It is perplexing.

2:36:19

>> Similar to confusion, bewilderment, puzzlement. >> Yeah.

2:36:22

I mean, this was a little bit of my of my question with Mark German, and he was like, "No, no, no."

2:36:25

And he kept shutting it down, and I think he has a strong opinion, and he might wind up being right, but his uh my take was was when when a platform, when an aggregator partners with a foundation model lab, which direction should the money flow?

2:36:41

And he was like, obviously, it should flow from the application layer to the foundation model lab.

2:36:46

So obviously Apple should pay Google because Google is inventing a technology and then selling that technology to Apple.

2:36:55

>> I think it I think it again it would have looked a lot different.

2:36:57

It would have been flipped if Apple was just if Gemini was becoming the default assistant within Apple, >> which they would never probably allow, right?

2:37:07

Um >> well they would if they're getting paid >> potentially if they were getting paid $20 billion. >> Exactly.

2:37:12

Which is like how I think this plays out actually. >> Yeah.

2:37:15

I think somebody maybe it's open AI but I think somebody will be paying Apple for the right to funnel those LLM queries wherever they want and take the cut just like what happens in search.

2:37:25

Uh but that's a hot take and I and I I I respect people that don't agree with me.

2:37:31

>> In other news, Deutsche Bank is exploring ways to hedge his exposure to AI to data centers.

2:37:35

It's looking at options including shorting a basket of AI related stocks and buying default protection via synthetic risk transfers. So they're hedgeman.

2:37:47

>> So they've bet so they bet big on data center financing.

2:37:48

Uh the scale of the expend expenditure on AI infrastructure has prompted concerns that a bubble is forming with some likening the enthusiasm to that which preceded the dotcom crash.

2:37:59

[snorts] Skeptics have pointed out that billions of dollars have been deployed in an untested industry with assets that quickly depreciate in value due to rapid change in technology.

2:38:07

>> Stream Yimi in the comments says, "If there's one thing Deutsche Bank is really good at, it's being very exposed."

2:38:14

>> Uh so in recent months, Deutsche Bank has provided debt financing to Swedish group Eco Data Center as well as the Canadian company 5C, who together raised more than 1 billion to fuel their expansion.

2:38:26

The investment bank does not break down how much money it has lent to the sector, but it's estimated to be in the billions of dollars.

2:38:32

Hedging exposure to the industry could prove difficult because betting against a basket of AI related stocks in a booming market will be expensive.

2:38:40

While meanwhile, SRT transactions require a diversified pool of loans to earn a rating and investors to likely hire demand higher premiums.

2:38:50

Hyperscaler's pursuit of super intelligence has fueled demands for infrastructure that will help them build it.

2:38:54

I mean, this is everyone from the uh from the Haunted Mansion proprietor.

2:38:57

Like, everyone is getting in on the action.

2:39:00

Like a few years ago, like the like it was like if you have anything that's related to AI, like go go go raise money, grow it, uh spin it, flip it, turn it around, pivot it, whatever you want to do.

2:39:16

Uh Europe is expecting a wave of dealm consolidation in digital infrastructure and the cost estimate from the financial times on the total AI buildout three trillion three trillion bucks. Um pretty wild times.

2:39:32

Uh Business Insider has a scoop here that Google is looking to invest in anthropic at a 350 billion valuation. >> Um it's interesting.

2:39:43

Enthropic seems what, one quarter the revenue of OpenAI.

2:39:49

And yet from a vibe perspective, from a from a public attention, from a PR crisis perspective, Anthropic used to be in trouble every other week because Daria would be out there being like paper clip, we're going to paperclip everyone, you know, we're going to get rid of everyone's job.

2:40:04

And it was like really aggressive, right?

2:40:06

Uh, and so like like they had to back stuff up from they had to back stop they had to backs stop their coms a couple times, but it's been great and Daario's looked great for the last 6 months and he's just been beating the drum on, hey, there's a there's geopolitical considerations here with China, but overall we're we're building and we're happy to be an API.

2:40:29

We're happy to be we're we're happy to help businesses Yeah.

2:40:31

generate code and >> running the experiment of like highly focused lab.

2:40:36

Yeah, >> versus highly >> not distracted, but taking a lot of shots on goal with OpenAI.

2:40:45

>> We could we could be looking back on this in a couple years and being like, man, they really missed erotica.

2:40:47

They really missed SLO >> Consumer Electronics.

2:40:52

>> We missed Consumer Electronics.

2:40:52

It's possible, but on the flip side, it does seem like they've built a, you know, a bit of an elegant business and it seems to align well with uh Google's strategy >> and every hyperscaler wants a piece of it. >> Yeah.

2:41:03

I mean similar to how Microsoft has access to open AI models on Azure, you know, Google uh bringing anthropic in through an increased investment.

2:41:13

Also, I I just wonder is it hard to do a deal at 350B these days in the venture community?

2:41:20

Like there was already that reporting that Dario had to go all over the world to scrap together the last round.

2:41:23

And I'm wondering if there's a world where you if you're trying you should just go to the hyperscalers.

2:41:32

Well, yeah, they're using every possible capital source.

2:41:34

We've seen some of these SPVS that have like, you know, 0% carry, 10% management fee. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Up front.

2:41:41

So, they're tapping everything.

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Uh, >> let me tell you about adquick. com.

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2:41:52

Jordy, where do you want to go next?

2:41:53

>> I think we should bring on >> our next guest, our first and only inerson guest, >> Jordan Castro.

2:41:59

Hey, he's here live in the TBP and Ultradome and we will bring >> Muscleman himself.

2:42:05

>> He is the author of Muscleman and the novelist.

2:42:08

Wait, you you're Was that your first novel?

2:42:11

Did you write a novel called The Novelist? >> Yes. >> What inspired that?

2:42:14

That's it's kind of like uh it's recursive. >> Yeah.

2:42:18

Oh, well, I I wanted to say first of all, thanks for having me. Of course. Of course. Um you know, I Yeah.

2:42:20

I um >> uh and shouts out to Norman Plays in the chat.

2:42:26

Someone just showed me they said I'm here for Jordan Castro. >> Let's go. It's not norman.

2:42:31

Um um um but yeah, I I I uh I write novels, but I also um >> you know, you guys had the pope up talking about the pope and I I I work with this guy Luke Burgess with this thing called the Clooney Institute. >> Oh, no way.

2:42:44

>> Um and one of the things I've noticed it's sort of we sort of do stuff at the intersection of like what we say Athens, Jerusalem, and Silicon Valley.

2:42:48

And so sort of bringing religious wisdom into the tech conversation.

2:42:52

But >> so I've been like I'm not really related to tech, but I've been like at all these different like talks and so on about tech and whatever.

2:42:59

And I noticed that when people normally talk about AI, they sound like AI.

2:43:02

They immediately just sound like AI.

2:43:04

And when you guys were doing your AI quadrant thing, I was like, they sound like people. Interesting.

2:43:09

You know, and I I was like I'm like, why do I give it up for people? >> Yeah. Yeah.

2:43:12

Let's give it up for That's right. That's right. That's right. Yeah.

2:43:14

And I was like, why do I like TVPN?

2:43:14

you know, I shouldn't like I mean, you know, I shouldn't like it or whatever.

2:43:18

And I was like, well, because you guys like talk like people and you talk about people, you know what I'm saying?

2:43:22

And so much of the conversation about >> Yeah.

2:43:25

There was it was very deliberate to put the faces of the people there, not the logos of the companies. >> Yeah.

2:43:30

And I noticed that they weren't particularly flattering uh photos. Yeah. Yeah. >> Oh, interesting.

2:43:35

That was not intentional.

2:43:36

We a lot of times we'll give them muscle Well, we will literally make the muscle me. We have fun with that.

2:43:41

uh for that that decision was actually more just about like how do you actually fit them all in?

2:43:46

Like if you make them the muscle man, then you have to make it smaller.

2:43:49

You can't see their face facial features.

2:43:50

It No, I mean some of those photos are like their hero photo that like their comm's department clearly like put on their Wikipedia page or something. I don't know.

2:43:57

Hey man, that's >> uh or like their corporate photo.

2:43:59

You don't always get to pick what photo is becomes you on the internet, but sometimes, >> trust me, I know when people get mad at me on Twitter.

2:44:05

I've been publishing since I was like 16.

2:44:07

>> Oh, do they go find a stupid photo?

2:44:07

find pictures of me like in high school wearing like a pink button up and they post it and they, you know, comment that makes sense. Yeah. Yeah.

2:44:14

I I' I have some silly photos from from of of old that I'm sure will resurface when people want to dunk on me.

2:44:20

Uh what break this po post down for me actually like what what what was your read on this?

2:44:24

So technological innovation can can do you think he did?

2:44:29

>> Well that I think the worst actually uh the the worst thing about AI is that people are saying you can't use m dashes anymore. I love the mdash. >> Okay. Okay.

2:44:38

So, I don't love the M dash.

2:44:40

Like, it's not that I hate it.

2:44:40

I'm just indifferent to it.

2:44:41

I didn't I don't even know where it is on the keyboard.

2:44:43

And so, like >> you do minus sign, minus sign, and then space, I think, to generate >> I think you know, double tap, double tap, space, shift, option, dash.

2:44:55

>> So, like just double tap space. >> And I go here. >> Double tap it.

2:44:57

But sometimes it doesn't like this is the story.

2:44:59

And then I want to do an M dash and then space.

2:45:04

>> Shift and you can hit it.

2:45:04

I'm putting on an absolute human mash. Underscore. This is an underscore.

2:45:10

>> That's an underscore, dude. Look. Underscore underscore.

2:45:12

>> Maybe it's just something that I know how to do. >> Test underscore test. >> How do you do? >> Maybe. Maybe.

2:45:17

>> I just run it double double dash space. >> No.

2:45:20

So, so, so I completely agree with you.

2:45:22

So, uh, I I wrote I write like a little, you know, 300word, 400word like summary of my current thinking on whatever's in the news every day.

2:45:30

Uh, I just write it right in Google Docs here. I don't use any AI.

2:45:35

I hand it off to Brandon on our team. He edits it.

2:45:36

I don't think he uses any AI.

2:45:39

Uh sometimes he would put M dashes in and if we put in even one M dash, all the comments we M dash M A what was the problem?

2:45:45

And it's just like okay, like now I just can't use the M dash because like like the the masses will go crazy.

2:45:54

>> I refuse to let them take that from me.

2:45:55

>> You're fighting the good fight.

2:45:55

Okay, you think you can win?

2:45:59

>> I think that it's just I lost it.

2:45:59

>> I think that it's just I lost it. I was and and Brandon was like really like and there were places I'll I'll show you sometimes I will literally just write like like a minus sign not an M dash I'll just be like you know close quote I

2:46:12

will deliberately break the rules that I know I'm not supposed to like even when you when you when you put something in quotes you put like the period inside the quotes or whatever I will just break all those rules because it just makes it clearer that I'm not slopping it up. >> I don't know. I think you're accepting >> I don't know.

2:46:26

I think you're accepting accepting the frame of the hat or something. >> I think so.

2:46:29

I think I I think it might be I think you're right. I think you're right.

2:46:32

>> Also, shouts out Brandon.

2:46:32

I don't I didn't hear any claps for Brandon.

2:46:35

>> Yeah, let's get some claps going for Brandon.

2:46:38

>> Me call him in the He's in >> He's got a new haircut. >> He got a new haircut.

2:46:42

>> We need a We need a trading card for Brandon's new haircut.

2:46:44

>> He's a sleeper muscle man, too. >> He's a muscle man.

2:46:46

>> I know why, but I've got I got Is it fair to say I got you into it? >> What?

2:46:49

You're Wait, you you're the reason he's the reason you got Jack?

2:46:53

>> Is that fair to say or that >> He's the reason that you're absolutely shredded and diced.

2:46:56

He's the reason you're walking around at 2% body fat. >> Yes. >> Okay. Wow. Wow. >> Brandon content.

2:47:04

>> That's why That's why you can bench three plates.

2:47:05

You can [laughter] just rep it out because of him. >> Four. Okay. Four. Wow. >> Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. Whoa. >> Look. >> Crazy. >> It's good. Wait. Uh, so yeah.

2:47:14

Actually, tell me the story of the the Muscle Man book.

2:47:17

Like how like what inspired it? What was the thesis?

2:47:20

>> It's a novel about an English professor who hates being English professor and loves lifting weights. >> Sick.

2:47:25

Um, and part of it was that >> And this is a real person or >> No, it's a it's a fictional character. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

2:47:31

Um, um, but like, you know, part of it was that I, when I was growing up, I basically grew up online and, you know, it's sort of a classic story, but it was like I was totally anxious, you know, like I would be at school, then I would get on the screen and, you know, I would just post and sort of lurk and be sort of weird and creepy in front of the computer, you know.

2:47:48

Um, and then when I started lifting, um, my anxiety and depression just like completely went away. Yeah.

2:47:54

you know, and and and and I was like, damn, like, you know, was my dad right my whole life?

2:47:59

You know, are all the sort of jacked guys who are like annoying and saying that, you know, you got to start lifting.

2:48:04

Were they just all totally right?

2:48:05

Basically, >> the other thing that that tracks with my personal experience, I used to have trouble falling asleep at night. Yeah, that too.

2:48:13

The second I started lifting daily or six days a week, it just went away entirely.

2:48:18

And the lesson is >> people that struggle to fall asleep, at least in some cases, are just not exerting themselves enough to be just physically tired enough to like fall asleep and started lifting.

2:48:30

Soon enough, it's like, okay, you basically close your eyes, you're knocked out in like 5 minutes. >> Totally. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

2:48:36

And so I wanted to just kind of like I and then I tried to find novels or even books about lifting that I thought were like compelling at all. And I couldn't find any.

2:48:45

So I started sort of trying to write um something like that.

2:48:46

It's also like a satire about higher education.

2:48:50

There's like a lot of rants and stuff about the universities and stuff. That's cool.

2:48:53

>> Um so, um so yeah, >> talk about the reception.

2:48:57

>> Um the reception has been sort of idiotic. >> Okay.

2:49:00

>> Um you know, the the the the media as we all >> Let's give it up for idiotic.

2:49:04

>> Let's give it up for the idiotic media. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

2:49:09

>> Um you know, it's a it's it's um [laughter] >> the idiotic media.

2:49:13

And we have a horn going on. >> We are Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

2:49:16

You know, you know, >> you have a horse wearing a hat in the back of your consider journalist, but I definitely consider us to be part of the idiotic media. >> Yeah.

2:49:25

Well, that's now you're using it in a good way. You're reclaiming it. You know what I mean?

2:49:28

But um but but but most of them are idiotic in a bad way.

2:49:31

>> Um and the the reception has been like here's a novel to like explain the manosphere, >> the manosphere and like here's like a novel about men.

2:49:37

And I feel like, you know, back in the day, um, like, uh, there's this great, uh, the literary, uh, the writer Norman Mor has this debate with these feminists like back in the 70s, and he keeps calling them lady critics.

2:49:48

It's this very hilarious debate.

2:49:51

>> Um, and I feel like in a weird way they're doing the same thing to me, but they're calling me like a man novelist. Okay. You know what I mean?

2:49:55

Where it's like, this is a novel about a man, so like it has to be about masculinity or something like that. >> Um, yeah.

2:50:01

Everyone wants to know what's going on with young men. >> Yeah.

2:50:04

>> And it's this kind of fake discourse. >> Yeah.

2:50:06

I saw Chris Williamson on Tucker the other day and it felt it felt very much I mean honestly like I feel like Chris has done a fantastic job of actually sort of explaining like what's going on with young men like it is an interesting question. Yeah.

2:50:17

Uh there's a whole bunch of and I feel like every media outlet has their own way of interrogating this whether it's Harper's or Vanity Fair Wired.

2:50:24

Like everyone's telling stories and writing profiles about interesting people and young men and I don't know it seems like it was somewhat worthwhile uh discussion to have if there if it can inform interventions even in even just in your own life or with your own kids.

2:50:38

It seems like there's some some value to the discourse.

2:50:43

Did you have any intention of actually uh sparking that debate or like actually like like was was one of your thesis like I need to put this book out so that more people lift weights at young ages?

2:50:55

>> Uh no, but I did write an essay for Harper that was just basically a straightforward prolifting essay.

2:50:58

So that had more of that kind of >> Sure. Sure. Sure. Yeah. That's awesome. Yeah.

2:51:03

Yeah. The uh the thing that the my take away from going I was very anti- gym growing up because I was a skateboarder and a skater surfer like the idea of like going inside being indoors >> lifting stuff up and putting it down just for the

2:51:20

>> whatever the whatever the reason was it wasn't appealing to me as a kid because I was like well I could just go to the beach and surf and like be out in nature and so I had a generally negative sentiment around the gym and I was also like super scrawny growing up. I've got I've got like long arms.

2:51:35

I'm I I I was like in high school probably like 140 lbs.

2:51:38

Like getting under like one plate on bench was like big >> I'm going to die at first.

2:51:44

And I never really got into it.

2:51:47

I wasn't I didn't play football or anything like that.

2:51:51

>> Uh and then I got really into it in college and it was the biggest unlock for like mental health.

2:51:55

Like I prior prior to that I was like a you know teenager.

2:52:00

where I was like teenagers I think are just naturally kind of like moody and figuring out who they are and how they fit into the world and all that stuff.

2:52:07

And then I found lifting and like a lot of that stuff just like went away entirely because I had a purpose.

2:52:10

Uh I would even if that purpose was like so simple and just like going I woke up, I was going to eat well and I was going to go to the gym.

2:52:19

I was going to lift as heavy as I could and go on with my day.

2:52:23

And it just it it ended up being like uh it it was like a drug almost immediately cuz I was like I want the feeling of how I feel after I lift.

2:52:31

It was it was incredibly addictive in a very positive way.

2:52:35

So I did that and then and then about probably a year or so I went from likeund by that point of like 150 lbs to like 190 in like a very short period of time.

2:52:46

like basically spending I was this was from freshman year to sophomore year and I was spending like so much of my energy just focused on lifting. >> Yeah.

2:52:59

>> Uh and I ultimately reached a point where I was like okay at some point this is actually not the most productive use of my time.

2:53:04

And I was fortunate enough to at that point to kind of like discover like work and things that I was passionate about and and ways that I could use my energy that was more interesting to me.

2:53:13

And so I think like the debate to have around lifting is like I think like basically everyone should be like picking up heavy stuff and putting it down like at least a little bit, right?

2:53:24

You don't need to go to the extreme.

2:53:25

Uh the the advice that I find myself maybe giving like you know people that were in my shoes is like figure out the point where you maybe actually want to dial it back a little bit because it's possible and probably healthy to go way too much to the extreme where you're spending like like I was like all my time and energy like just lifting because I didn't have anything better to do besides like you know work and and school.

2:53:47

And then at some point I actually needed to dial it back and actually apply that energy in other places.

2:53:52

But I got the benefit of like that period of just like obsessiveness that I still carry with me. >> Yeah, 100%.

2:53:59

I mean I that was sort of actually what the novel was exploring, you know, cuz when I first found it, like you said, it's like, is this the answer?

2:54:04

Is this the ultimate answer? You know what I mean?

2:54:06

And it it it really isn't.

2:54:07

I mean, that's part of the issue that I take with like the optimizers, you know, like Hub, I mean, I know you guys had Huberman on or Brian Johnson >> where you sort of become like perversely obsessed with health or with lifting or something like that.

2:54:20

you sort of tinker, you know, you think of the person, the human person as some sort of like, >> you know, mix of neurons and chemicals and stuff.

2:54:28

And >> yeah, it's interesting like even between uh Brian Johnson and Huerman, I see a huge wide gap, but let's put them in the same bucket.

2:54:38

>> How do you contrast your philosophy?

2:54:40

>> I think you need to be injury maxing.

2:54:40

I think you need to be horsing heavy weights. >> Interesting.

2:54:47

>> And uh I think it's like a spiritual endeavor.

2:54:49

I think you need to almost I think you need to get crushed under a a body breaking weight a few times. >> Okay.

2:54:56

>> Uh and um >> and and yeah, it's more of a it's more of a spiritual process than an analytical process. >> Yeah, 100%.

2:55:03

It's it's it's Eric Bugenhogen, who's like my favorite uh like lifter on YouTube, always talks about how it's a mindset.

2:55:09

And he has these things where like he'll just fail insane amounts of weight multiple times and then just like >> work himself into this kind of like crazy mental state and then lift it, you know?

2:55:21

>> What do you think about the other YouTubers?

2:55:22

What do you think about Sam Sulk? >> Oh, I love Sam Sulk.

2:55:24

>> What do you think about the Trend Twins?

2:55:26

>> I love the Trend Twins. I love Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. For sure. For sure.

2:55:29

Sam Sul also Sam Sul is weirdly emo. >> Yeah.

2:55:32

>> Like he will, you know, his vlogs actually there's this weird thing where so my my I don't know why I'm talking about this now, but my brother died like a year and a half ago. That's all right.

2:55:41

And after the funeral, one of my buddies threw on a Sam Sulic video.

2:55:43

And I don't inspirational.

2:55:46

Yeah, it was incredibly inspirational.

2:55:47

But I noticed I was like Sam Sulick's videos are sort of emo where he's like driving by himself.

2:55:50

He's like talking to the camera.

2:55:53

He's like taking unnecessary loops around the parking lot just I I I I've maybe watched like 20 minutes of Sam Sulick.

2:56:01

appreciate like the content like that the the world that he's built but because specifically I remember being in that mindset of like I was kind of like again I remember I was like 19 I was in school I wasn't that happy I was like living in Santa Barbara which was like paradise but like mentally I was chasing that like I need to I'd be like that those scenes where you're like driving I'd be driving to the gym at like 5:00 a. m.

2:56:25

Dude, I can relate with everything you're saying.

2:56:28

Like down to the specifics.

2:56:28

Like I started lifting too like sort of like I was in school, just moved, didn't really have friends, would like go to the gym at 11:00, you know? >> Yeah.

2:56:37

These early early mornings or late and then getting like food afterwards and like honestly that era for me like Future uh the the rap artist was like absolutely peing. >> What year was this? Monster for me.

2:56:49

For me monster was just Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah.

2:56:53

So So we might we might be the same.

2:56:55

He became a man after >> Wait, is your is your full name Jordan? >> Yeah. >> Wow.

2:57:00

Brother, >> make it make sense. >> Make it make sense. >> Make it make sense. What's going on here?

2:57:05

>> But uh but yeah, so I would I would drive I I I just remember like at the time I was driving a a a Prius with like 200,000 miles on it and I'd just be like driving to the gym just blasting Future drinking protein shakes and that's like when I think I became a man. >> Yeah.

2:57:23

>> Like [laughter] incredible, incredible things about >> and so I want I when I I think it's super important and like when I hear when I hear that a young person is getting into going to the gym, I'm like great, totally >> like you're going to become >> you're going to find yourself through that.

2:57:38

And my only thing is like I think at some point you have to evolve beyond that and take the learnings and that like that mentality that you get from going to the gym and apply it to other other ways.

2:57:50

I think like the big takeaway that I learned early on was like early on I was obsessed with like how many how many sets am I doing?

2:57:56

How many reps am I doing?

2:57:58

How am I uh how am I you know just approaching different lifts?

2:58:03

How many different exercises should I be doing in a lift?

2:58:05

And I very quickly realized that there was like two fac there was maybe three factors.

2:58:09

It was like was I sleeping a lot? Was I eating a lot?

2:58:12

And was I like hyperconsistent and doing a lot of volume.

2:58:15

And those are the same lessons that I've brought into my real life outside of the gym.

2:58:21

It's like, am I sleeping a lot?

2:58:25

>> Am I like nourishing myself?

2:58:25

Am I getting the right amount of calories?

2:58:27

Am I getting, you know, getting the right amount of um uh just like the right kinds of food?

2:58:33

And then am I being consistent in the work?

2:58:35

And so we apply that every day.

2:58:37

We come in and do the show.

2:58:40

>> Well, and you also go to the gym.

2:58:40

I mean, I behind the scenes look, the whole squad was at the gym this morning, which I think is a great thing that you guys do. Yeah.

2:58:47

>> Uh, a lot of people that were on that chart, a lot of the tech elite are deeply unpopular people.

2:58:54

>> Um, I think Elon was polling as less popular than Donald Trump.

2:58:57

So, not just controversial, but actually just unpopular across the board.

2:59:01

A lot of tech CEOs, a lot of tech people are just unpopular in America.

2:59:05

Obviously, we love them here.

2:59:07

Um, but we're weirdos about that.

2:59:09

But my question is like when I think about who's really popular, I think Tom Cruz. I think George Clooney.

2:59:15

think people that are in shape, is there something, you know, we we we do this jokey like giga chatification of these people um is there something where you like like it would actually be in their best interest for the tech elite to get a lot. Look at Zuck.

2:59:30

>> I was going to say like that um you know I I used to think Zuck was a full creep.

2:59:34

He was like a beadyeyed sort of bug.

2:59:34

He would like you could when when when Zuck would look in the camera, you could almost like hear him blinking.

2:59:40

You know what I'm saying?

2:59:41

It was it was it was And then he got jacked on a chain.

2:59:43

I was like, "This guy's not so bad after all." You know what I mean?

2:59:47

So maybe um so maybe they would all benefit from PR PR teams hate this one simple trick.

2:59:53

[laughter] >> Well, PR team should love it, but they maybe aren't awake to it for some reason.

2:59:58

And >> yeah, look, if you're on if you're on a billionaire's PR team, um >> step one, hire a trainer.

3:00:04

>> Bring the trend twins in. >> Yeah. Yeah.

3:00:05

Bring the trend twins in. Get jacked.

3:00:07

Um and uh you know, then then the public opinion.

3:00:10

Why do you think health is so political?

3:00:15

>> Oh man, I I I did an event uh two nights ago here and um someone asked the same question >> and this guy in the audience stood up and he he because I I I actually don't know.

3:00:27

I mean, one one reason is that um I think that um when you're jacked and you're strong and you're, you know, or you're competent, it it acts as a judge actually because if you're like, you know, fat and you're lazy, then you feel just sort of implicitly judged.

3:00:42

The other thing is that going to the gym and getting jacked implies a certain value system.

3:00:47

You know, there's there's like, you know, if you lift 145, um you know, that's less than 225.

3:00:51

And if you're in the gym, you're trying to get stronger, the implication is that it's better to lift 225, you know?

3:00:56

And so like a lot of people who are like dogmatically committed to a certain kind of like egalitarianism, don't like that.

3:01:02

But the guy at the event stood up, this guy, he looked just like Joe Rogan.

3:01:07

His name's Anthony, actually. Shouts out Anthony.

3:01:10

But he he was like he said that he said that um the generally speaking, the left tries to impose their ideas onto nature and the right starts with nature and discerns their ideas from there.

3:01:19

And so there's something just sort of fundamentally different about that.

3:01:21

I think lifting sort of falls into the latter camp. >> I have a question. >> Makes sense. Yeah.

3:01:25

I'm always I'm always surprised at how much like there seems to be more controversies within >> in between like various people even that consider themselves all to be pursuing their ideals of health.

3:01:36

It's like everybody like kind of picks a lane in a category and then it's like >> they're fighting over like green powders.

3:01:44

What green powder should you take?

3:01:45

Oh, my green powder is better than your green powder.

3:01:47

Let's get >> It's universal.

3:01:48

Like it I I feel like it's it's hard to make a political issue out of something that doesn't affect everyone because you just keep bumping into people and if your whole thing is like you know >> corporate cards or something or like you know the the manufacturing supply chain for large gongs.

3:02:04

It's like there's a lot >> you guys have a lot of those around even have the you got I noticed in the bathroom the the picture of the jacked guy the shirtless guy hitting the gong.

3:02:14

I like these guys love >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

3:02:14

It's it's like it's hard to get everyone animated about that. It's a niche interest.

3:02:18

Whereas like healthare, how much money you have, your job, your health, your food, like these things are universal.

3:02:25

So anyone can uh anyone can relate to them and I can give you a take and you can bounce off it immediately instead of being like I don't really know anything about that or that doesn't really affect me ever. >> Yeah.

3:02:36

But there's also there is so much co more people die in this this is actually I don't actually don't know if this is true but you see this talking point all the time.

3:02:41

More people die in this country from like obesity and from starvation.

3:02:45

You know, there is this total cope around around being unhealthy and people people don't like the idea that there's actually something you can do about it. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

3:02:52

It's just like everyone everyone can be obese or not.

3:02:56

Like not everyone can have a like a large corporation that goes bankrupt under their stewardship.

3:03:01

Like so it's just less relevant to them because like they might not be the CEO of a company that's going bankrupt or something. Um pickle ball.

3:03:08

There's uh I couldn't find it in here, but there's a in the mansion section online.

3:03:12

There is a house that is up for sale right now that has a pickle ball court outside and a pickle ball court inside.

3:03:20

What's your take on pickle ball? >> Dude, it's fun.

3:03:24

I hate to say it, but it's fun. >> Guilty pleasure.

3:03:28

>> I mean, I played it one time with a friend and I was like, man, this is I probably said some >> Yeah. Yeah.

3:03:33

>> words and uh uh and then uh we played it and I was like, this is awesome. >> Yeah.

3:03:37

So I don't I don't >> inside or outside.

3:03:40

>> I mean two courts is a little bit um you know I don't know if you love something >> zoom out for me build the the the ultimate mansion for ath for athletics.

3:03:52

Are you going all in on one particular athletic endeavor?

3:03:55

Are you making sure that there's a pool and a basketball court, a tennis court?

3:03:59

What's important to have around the mansion?

3:04:03

>> For me definitely a basketball court. >> A basketball court.

3:04:04

Uh, and then like a gym in a garage with no AC. >> No AC.

3:04:10

>> And >> And what's in that gym?

3:04:10

Are we doing rogue racks?

3:04:12

Are we doing >> Rogue racks are good? Okay. Yeah. Yeah. >> Free weights.

3:04:16

>> What is it about uh >> what's the archetype that can make a home gym really work?

3:04:20

Do you have to be like like spiritual?

3:04:23

Like every time I've just been in a dedic like only like during co >> I bought a bunch of weights and I was working out of my garage and I just got so small. >> Hard to be motivated. >> Yeah. I got J.

3:04:34

That's a skill issue, bro.

3:04:36

>> I think No, no, I think I'm I'm implying it's a skill issue because I would be going in there and I was at home so I could get an email and I'd be like, "Okay, I'm going to run in and respond to this email on my computer because it's easier."

3:04:46

And if I was taking a more monklike approach, >> I'd probably have been getting even more jacked because there's no distractions, right?

3:04:54

It's just like more focused.

3:04:57

Well, during co I mean we ordered a bunch of weights, me and my lifting buddy like right when like right at the tail end because everything sold out like super fast.

3:05:04

So we had >> But you still had a buddy that helps. >> Had a buddy. Yeah.

3:05:06

And um um and we we ended up getting these like dinky probably like 25 lb barbells with these like shitty weights or whatever.

3:05:17

>> Um but I would just go I had a shed at the at the house and I would like go in the shed and throw on music.

3:05:20

And it was actually the first time that I was lifting where I understood the power of like shrieking and screaming while you lift. There's a lot of power. You can Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> Okay.

3:05:29

Well, >> moder man does not shriek and scream.

3:05:34

>> Uh what what's in the supplement stack? What's Lindy? What's interesting?

3:05:36

What What are you staying away from? Are you beta alanine?

3:05:40

Are you creatine protein supplementation mass gainers? What do you like?

3:05:45

I don't I'm feeling uh reactionary against the optimizers and I want to just say nothing.

3:05:50

I mean I creatine for sure.

3:05:52

Protein's fine, but I think you could basically >> just eat >> eat uh raw milk. I do I do like raw milk.

3:06:00

I drink a lot of raw recently.

3:06:00

I gained I went from like 165 to 200 lb over the course of like 3 months.

3:06:04

And so I was drinking like a gallon of raw milk a day, a tub of Greek yogurt a day. >> Yeah. Uh um the raw eggs.

3:06:11

I do think like drinking, you know, 12 raw eggs makes you feel amazing. Okay.

3:06:16

>> Um but that's kind of the >> I went through a raw egg.

3:06:18

I went through a phase where it' be like five eggs mixed into raw milk. Just raw.

3:06:24

>> Were you Bodybuilding. com guy back in the day?

3:06:26

[laughter] >> That was a long That was a long That was like That wasn't even like a phase.

3:06:30

I would just That was just me for a long time.

3:06:34

>> Um >> I I realized like wait, I don't have to scramble the eggs.

3:06:36

I can just put them in a jar and just drink it.

3:06:37

I would I I didn't like the taste.

3:06:40

I would kind of >> almost throw up sometimes, but it was just so effective.

3:06:46

>> I mean, uh Derek from our place more dates talks about just drinking the full carton of liquid egg whites.

3:06:51

>> He does stuck >> in the carton.

3:06:53

>> Yeah, that was a good era.

3:06:53

There was a period where I was watching his videos like when I was first getting lifting, watching like I remember being like I can't believe I'm watching an hour and a half videos about something. >> Crazy. But it's so meditative.

3:07:03

>> Well, it's like what we were saying at at at breakfast.

3:07:04

It's just amazing to watch anyone who loves what they do. Yeah, exactly.

3:07:10

>> You would have appreciated we we gave a a talk last year when we had done like a few episodes of the podcast and then we we uh gave a talk at Heredicon uh of like the case for like founders getting on like peeds because you have like you think about like pro athletes are like spending all their time trying to be healthy, sleeping well, working out and being as strong and as physically fit as possible and they legally or cannot take peeds.

3:07:37

Although if you asked them like if you could take peeds if it was legal, would you do them?

3:07:41

They'd be like, "Yeah, absolutely.

3:07:42

I want to go to the next level."

3:07:43

Meanwhile, in the business world, you have people that are not sleeping that well, they can't train that much, they're not that healthy, they have like kind of not that great hormone profiles.

3:07:52

In a perfect world, they just start sleeping well and training and eating well and getting on track.

3:07:56

But for a lot of people, if you're a CEO, busy CEO, you're scaling your company, you don't have like you you some of these people like can't prioritize it or they don't for whatever reason.

3:08:07

And like I genuinely think if they just got on peeds, they might build they might build the build the uh you know, of course under under doctor's supervision, but they might actually like get motivated in order to build some of those healthier habits, but at the very least have a lot more energy and bring that uh intensity.

3:08:22

What do what do you what's your take on on peeds?

3:08:27

>> I don't do them because I haven't had kids yet, but they do seem probably good. I don't know. Have you done them?

3:08:33