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>> [music] [music] >> Heat. Hey, Heat.
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Hey, are you >> [music] [music] [music] >> We came to this world to reach the stars.
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We came to this world to shape our future.
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We came to this world [music] to shape our future.
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[music] >> [music] >> Good morning.
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>> You're watching TVPN Orange Mode.
4:58
It is uh we're cozy maxing.
5:01
It is Friday, November 14th, 2025.
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We are live from the TVP Ultradome, the Temple of Technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital.
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It's raining in Los Angeles.
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It's raining in Hollywood.
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And so we're cozy maxing.
5:13
We're in extremely orange lighting. We put the fire on.
5:16
Uh maybe a little bit too orange.
5:18
Honestly, the clips are going to look a little bit crazy from today.
5:23
Uh >> uh we might we might switch back at some point.
5:26
But >> Pat says we need the white suits today for sure.
5:28
We didn't do white suits today.
5:30
>> This the market opened down 2%. It was a disaster. >> No, we're back up. >> We're back up. The whole market's up.
5:36
>> We need to put the word >> the NASDAQ's up. The NASDAQ's up. Okay.
5:40
Uh and over the last six months, the NASDAQ is up 20%. Wow.
5:45
>> Would you look at that? Would you look at that? >> Yeah.
5:48
Rough opening but but lifted. Lifted.
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>> Bigger news and more important news. >> Ramp. Time is money. Save both.
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Easy to use corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, a whole lot more all in one place. Yes, Jordan.
6:00
>> Today is National Pickle Day. >> Pickle day. >> You heard it. Pickle ball day. National pickle day.
6:05
A lot Gil broke the news this morning. >> Yes.
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>> And uh that could explain >> he's into tracking national days. explain the volatility.
6:15
>> That could that could um there's basically a day every day like every day is some special day.
6:20
Uh there's like probably national podcasters day, you know, there's because because they they've extended it.
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It's you know uh Father's Day, Mother's Day, then there's grandparents day, then there's aunts and uncles day.
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And people just went crazy with the days.
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A lot of marketing firms figured out that you needed a day to have an excuse.
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So there's like donut day, national eat a donut day or whatever.
6:40
According to Google's AI overview, tomorrow is National Philanthropy Day, >> and then it is also celebrated as National Recycling Day, National Drummer Day, Odd Socks Day. >> Mhm.
6:53
>> Um, so we got days for days. >> It's also reream day.
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You can sign up for reream today, one live stream, 30 plus destinations, multiream, and reach your audience wherever they are.
7:02
Uh, Blue Origin massive landing yesterday. Let's watch the video.
7:07
Uh, Sawyer Merritt has breaking it down.
7:09
Jeff Bezos's rocket company, Blue Origin, has just successfully landed. Let's play the clip.
7:17
This is New Glenn, the rocket booster. Oh, no.
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On a barge in the middle of the ocean, 25 years after its founding, look at that.
7:29
becoming the it's only the second company in history to land a rocket booster after SpaceX. Uh what what a moment. Remarkable. Uh insane.
7:42
It it it in some ways it's should be expected.
7:46
It's been a decade since SpaceX did exactly this. Uh this is a wild video.
7:52
This is This is like I mean I'm always I'm always remar I'm always amazed by uh the fact that they can keep the cameras even rolling or live streaming at all um during these crazy moments where there's fire all over the camera for example.
8:06
Uh but they did it the smoke clears I believe on this video at some point and you see the rocket booster sitting there on the drone ship uh standing. It did not crash.
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It did not blow up after they brought it back successfully.
8:20
Uh it's an orbital class rocket. Very exciting.
8:22
Uh I was I was thinking about the the implications of this. It's interesting.
8:29
It's like on the one hand like yeah, you're 10 years behind SpaceX.
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Like SpaceX did this this exact thing 2015. 2015. It's been a decade.
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>> Uh on the other hand, it's like China hasn't done it and they've obviously wanted to and so that's really cool that America has two companies that are doing it and they're now in competition.
8:46
And so when we were talking to the folks about the a data centers space fairing empire >> yeah there's been this question about like will the launch costs come down or will Elon just eat 100% of the margin himself uh with SpaceX because he's done all this work.
9:03
Well now there's maybe going to be a little bit more pressure.
9:05
We're seeing that from Firefly.
9:05
We're seeing that from Blue Origin.
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Like stuff seems to be working.
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I think a lot of people wrote off Blue Origin like Virgin Galactic.
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It was just like billionaire side project.
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SpaceX was the serious one.
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I think they're still, you know, they're still a decade behind.
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Uh but it is just crazy that um he's he's been able to keep it going for so long, making a lot of progress.
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And I was just laughing to myself about this idea that in any other industry, if a founder came to you and was like, "Yeah, we're we're a decade behind the lead the leading c leading company in the category, but we're staying with it for another decade." You'd be like, "What?"
9:41
Like, "You're a decade behind?"
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like you know like you're you're at GPT1 level and they're at GPT5 level like you're you're going to pivot in that >> that we're just trying to get to GPT2 level. Yeah.
9:55
>> Wait, by the time you're at GBT2, they're going to be at GBT6. >> Seven six or seven.
9:58
And uh but it is just a different industry. It moves a lot slower.
10:03
Um and Bezos has just built a crazy company.
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I mean, they've never like they've never really done a prime like a major financing that's been from a headline firm.
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They're just kind of it feels like it's all funded by Bezos.
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There might be something else going on.
10:17
There's there's some rumors of like small secondary transactions here and there, but there's really no like, you know, logo, Blue Origin logo on tier one fund. You just won't see that. That's just not a thing.
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And what's interesting is that it's a massive company.
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So over 10,000 people work there. Um worked.
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It's been 25 year project as I mentioned.
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But uh also um you know it's not it's like the idea of the idea of hiring 10,000 people and rocket scientists like not cheap people you know imagine I mean some of them are probably you know uh relatively new grads but there are some serious salaries to bear uh and then just funding that off your own personal balance sheet for 25 years is crazy.
10:55
Um but Bezos has like 250 billion SpaceX has raised to date like 12 billion.
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And so even if you just assume that Bezos is burning the exact same amount of money, even twice as much money, that's 10% of his net worth.
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Like it's just it's just a doable like check to write, uh, which is crazy. >> Yeah.
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It's almost the equivalent of, you know, somebody working in big tech setting up a cafe that loses some money, >> uh, but they get a lot of enjoyment out of it, so they keep it going. Yeah.
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Even though it's not, it may never be like a rational economic activity.
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But in this case, I mean, if if you know, the implications are that you could end up in a situation where there's a duopoly in launch. >> Yeah.
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I mean, SpaceX is what it multiple hundreds of billions.
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And you know, Blue Origin seems to have somewhat of a similar capability at some point like you, you know, what's the fair market value of Blue Origin? Is it a billion? Is it 10 billion? Is it 50 billion?
11:53
Is it 10 billion? Is it 50 billion? like if it was a public company um just like you know and you're just comping it to SpaceX for whatever reason um whether or not that that math makes a ton of sense like you could imagine it trading in the
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billions for sure like you could imagine trading in the high tens of billions um so uh obviously we don't know that much about like the financials how profitable this stuff is a very you know kind of behind the scenes company >> Virgin Galactic is sitting at a $200 million valuation uh in the public markets. >> I I know that they spacked. I thought
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>> I I know that they spacked.
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I thought that they had despbacked.
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>> It's sitting at uh >> in it peaked at let's see here.
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It peaked in >> Well, it had it was all over the place.
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It peaked at $1,218 a share in 2019 and it's now sitting at $361.
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>> I think it was one of the first Chamath Spacks, right?
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I think it was one of the one of the first ones.
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Um, and and they had a very different approach.
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Virgin Galactic was like doing the space plane thing where it would take off from the ground uh off of like a traditional landing strip and then just fly higher and higher and higher.
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Uh, I don't believe Virgin Galactic ever made serious progress towards like a reusable rocket like what uh Blue Origin's done.
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And I watched an interview a walk a walk and talk tour of the Blue Origin facility with Everyday Astronaut and Jeff Bezos.
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And it just seems like he's he loves it.
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Like he's just doing it for the love of the game.
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It doesn't matter if it's going to take 10% of his net worth.
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Like he's he's so happy watching going to be a spaceman. >> Yeah.
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No, watching him look at this massive rocket with the welding points and he knows what type of welds they used for what pieces of the rocket.
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Like it's clearly just one of the most entertaining things you can buy is just a rocket factory that builds rockets and does cool stuff. It's like so exciting. It's so thrilling.
13:53
Uh it's it's got to be way more thrilling than like sports betting for example because you're you're you're kind of there's a lot it is a gamble, right?
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You put all the money into the rocket, the rocket either explodes or it goes up and comes back down.
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It's got to be thrilling.
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It's got to be a dopamine machine. So he's having fun. >> Yeah.
14:10
[snorts] Um, the other interesting thing is that because they don't do this like regular tender offers that SpaceX does.
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Um, there's a lot of employees on Reddit who are kind of like, hey, like my stock options are kind of worthless.
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Like I don't know how to exercise these.
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I've been at this company for a very long time.
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Uh, and if I was at SpaceX, I'd probably be cashing out a lot and like retiring very comfortably.
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Um, but since I'm at Blue Origin, I I'm not really I don't really have the same level of liquidity.
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And you could imagine Bezos running a tender offer process that mirrors SpaceX's just by himself.
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Like he just personally takes out a billion dollars of cash, which he has, and buys a billion dollars of stock from the employees, like what happens at SpaceX when there's a billion dollar tender offer, but that comes from other investors.
14:55
Uh it could just come from him, but it doesn't feel like that's happening, at least from the, you know, the couple Reddit threads that I read.
15:02
Um, so it's weird because it feels like the like SpaceX has this another unfair advantage of employees who go there and think, "Oh, wow.
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I'm getting paid, you know, couple hundredk a year, but it could be millions if we really deliver.
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So, we got to go the extra mile."
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>> Not just that, but I will have a a consistent opportunity to get liquidity. >> Totally. Totally. Totally.
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>> Versus, you know, some of the people that sounds like the people that you found that that were at Blue Origin for a long time. Yeah.
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are probably sitting there, you know, basically saying to themselves, if I had joined SpaceX in a worse role and >> some of them literally said that exact thing.
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They literally [laughter] said that exact thing.
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Um, now >> and I'm sure those people had an opportunity to go to SpaceX, too. Yeah, some of them. Some I'm sure.
15:44
Uh, now now the other interesting thing is like, uh, it is fine to just be like, yeah, like we just pay you cash.
15:51
We pay you a lot of cash.
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We pay you, you know, higher than market cash.
15:54
Um, and and so the like people do need to, you know, make their own decisions.
15:58
the employees can make the decisions either way.
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Um, but it's just interesting that that Blue Origins like it feels like they're somewhat fighting with one arm tied behind their back.
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They're also way behind on the uh on the actual progress of the uh of the reusable rocket.
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They're clearly, you know, like they they don't have an answer to Starship.
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Starship is four times the capability of this new Glenn rocket that just landed.
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Um, so they're they're they're behind in many ways, but they're still ahead of China and they're still number two.
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And number two in this category has got to be thrilling. It's got to be exciting.
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Uh and I think it might actually be a decent business. I don't know.
16:34
I'd love to dig into it more.
16:36
I'd love to have >> probably more thrilling than owning a Formula 1 team. >> Maybe. Yeah.
16:41
>> And Basa, you know, >> I mean, he also like sent he sent his wife and her friends to space.
16:45
Like that's something that like you really can't buy otherwise.
16:49
Um anyway, what you can buy is a relationship with Privy.
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Wallet infrastructure for every bank.
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17:02
Uh Delian was very excited about this.
17:05
He said, "Hot damn, Blue Origin just landed New Glenn Rocket on their second flight, officially becoming the second company ever to do it after SpaceX did it a decade ago.
17:14
Incredible moment for the commercial space industry.
17:16
Uh the orbital economy has got to be excited about this.
17:21
uh more competition means potentially um more just cheaper prices on uh payloads to uh to orbit.
17:26
So uh exciting exciting um stuff.
17:30
Uh and uh yeah, we'll be interesting to see.
17:34
Um I also saw that uh Project Kier, which was Amazon's Starlink competitor, I believe, is rebranding to Amazon Leo. LEO. Uh >> I like that.
17:47
>> Yeah, some people were really upset about the rebrand.
17:48
I I thought it was kind of cool, but they are definitely going to be getting into the uh space internet.
17:54
Uh um >> Bezos just posted a close-up picture of the rocket putting it in.
18:01
>> While we pull that up, let me tell you about cognition, the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer, crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team.
18:09
>> Um there's also an an article in Paraspera.
18:14
um just dropped the uh Dan Golden spoke in front of US space leaders on a subject that's been weighing on him.
18:22
He's bored by space by that.
18:22
He's bored with low earth orbit.
18:25
SpaceX solved cheap launch and still the only uh the entire commercial space economy is largely one thing.
18:32
Communications imaginary. Wow, look at that.
18:37
>> So this is the this is taking off. >> Wow, look at that.
18:42
It's It's crazy it took so long to get this photo up.
18:44
Um they should have uh I guess this takes Look at that. Wow. >> Stunning. >> Yeah.
18:50
One of the reasons why Blue Origin has uh like I I talked to somebody who worked at Blue Origin and he was telling me that um uh one of the reasons that Blue Origin moved a little bit slower than SpaceX.
19:01
Uh is that uh they leaned a little bit harder on the exquisite system going really big.
19:07
And Elon had this idea of like let's try and make a whole bunch of small things that we bundle together.
19:14
So if you look at the number of engines on the bottom of that, I think it has like six engines um seven engines.
19:20
Uh and if you look at the bottom of like a Starship, you'll see like what 30 engines or something.
19:25
>> I think 33 >> 33 engines.
19:26
And so Elon has has has has been bigger at least on, hey, let's let's make modular pieces of equipment that can be moved around with maybe not a huge crane.
19:39
Maybe you can just put it in the back of a truck.
19:41
Maybe to work on this engine, you can do it in, you know, one normal room instead of a massive warehouse.
19:47
And so the the size of the individual pieces of Starship, it adds up to a massive rocket, but each of the pieces can be worked on individually.
19:57
when you start working on these really really big systems, any small uh change like cascades through the rest.
20:01
What What are you What are you laughing at? >> Laughing at Gabe.
20:05
Gabe's finding me for uh not wearing a suit. >> I told you, dude. I told you.
20:11
>> John's very against it, too.
20:11
But >> I'm very against it. >> But I just love this.
20:14
I just love this puffer too much. >> Okay, enjoy. Enjoy.
20:16
Um well, is uh is upset about this.
20:21
Uh he he wants asteroid mining.
20:22
He wants he he says no wealth being extracted from the solar system.
20:27
That's like it's it sounds intentionally written to inflame um and none being brought back to Earth.
20:32
Where are my asteroid mines?
20:34
Dan Golden writes uh I guess in the Economist.
20:37
[snorts] Very interesting.
20:39
>> We're all asking the same thing, Dan. >> Yes. Yes. Yes.
20:41
Um so the Steam Machine, is this what you want to move on to? >> Let's pull it up. >> Okay, let's pull up.
20:45
Let me tell you about Figma.
20:46
Think bigger, build faster.
20:48
Figma helps design and development teams build great products together.
20:50
Uh, Steam Machine is going to be huge, says Josh Constein.
20:54
Uh, so many Mac users wish they could play PC games, but they don't want expensive, complex PCs.
20:59
Uh, for a fraction of the price and headache, they'll be able to play PC, PlayStation, Xbox, and indie games on the Steam Machine.
21:09
Now, the Steam Machine was actually part of the uh part of a launch.
21:15
There were actually three things that they launched.
21:16
The launch video was very cool.
21:18
They launched a controller, uh, a box, uh, like an actual computer, the Steam machine, and then a VR headset.
21:25
Um, so we should see, um, what's interesting is that, uh, [laughter] um, we don't know pricing yet.
21:32
There's a few other things.
21:34
The they call it the Steam Frame.
21:36
Uh, Valve is saying that it's going to be cheaper than the $1,000 Valve Index, which is their previous VR headset.
21:45
Um, and I think it should be close to vision pro. Um, not quite.
21:50
In terms of the display, it seems like the display per eye might be um closer to just beyond the MetaQuest 3S, which Tyler of of course was demoing.
22:03
Um, and you said that with the Quest 3S, you couldn't quite use it for work.
22:08
It was a little screen door effect.
22:10
It was a little pixelated.
22:12
Yeah, I I would not want to be uh reading a lot on that. >> Yeah. Yeah.
22:16
But the the Apple Vision Pro felt like it was at that level or or almost at that level.
22:22
Um but they do a bunch of interesting things with the with the Steam Frame.
22:25
So uh if you get the Steam machine, it can it's designed obviously at the level of specs that allow you to uh run VR games off of it.
22:35
Uh, you can run VR games directly on the headset, but then they have a Wi-Fi dongle that you can put on this Steam machine that will stream the VR game to your headset using 6G.
22:48
Uh, I think that's it, a 6G Wi-Fi router.
22:51
Uh so 6G is uh I think it's like a different different patch of the broadband spectrum or the Wi-Fi spectrum that's like less cluttered than uh when you go into your u you know like two 2G networks on your on your Wi-Fi and you see the different um like there can be a lot of clutter especially if you're in a an apartment building.
23:14
So, >> Chabivi says, "Now make this for onrem LLMs."
23:19
>> And that's I think more or less what s for Satoshi is building.
23:23
>> Oh, >> building a a brain for your desk. Yeah, very cool.
23:26
>> Tiny box also from George Hot is similar.
23:29
And I believe Nvidia launched something that is uh a a computer that's designed for basically onrem LLMs.
23:35
uh a very high-end graphics card sort of wrapped in a uh in a in a package that can be uh delivered.
23:45
>> Scene says Steam has won.
23:45
There's no reason to get an Xbox.
23:47
There's no reason to get an Apple VR headset. They all run on Linux.
23:50
It's the ultimate computer. >> Yeah.
23:53
Uh we should pull up the actual Steam official hardware announcement trailer because I think that it's a unique way to actually announce something and I liked just the way they did it.
24:05
Uh just watch this Jordy and and listen to the transitions between it's it's a couple minutes so we might need to sort of skip through it.
24:12
>> Hey everyone, this is Steam Deck.
24:12
Steam Deck is our powerful portable.
24:17
>> So this is the product that like it's already out >> and uh and this has been on the market for a couple years. Sold I think very well.
24:25
>> No one really knows because uh Valve is such a quiet company.
24:27
They're not publicly traded.
24:28
We're excited to talk about the future of Steam Deck, but not today because this isn't a video about the future of Steam Deck.
24:34
This is a video about the future of Steam hardware.
24:38
Today, we're announcing three new members of the Steam hardware lineup.
24:42
All connect you with powerful PC gaming.
24:45
All are optimized for gaming with Steam and all are shipping in early 2026.
24:52
Let's start with this one.
24:57
Yeah, I I think it's cool how they uh they they they start with something that's familiar and then they like bring you into the next.
25:04
>> Well, the reason it's important is because it's a product that has shipped that people like. >> Yeah.
25:08
So, >> sort of like reestablish hardware gets like people have so little trust in a lot of new hardware products. >> Totally.
25:14
And then also there's this interesting factor of uh they um the uh the Steam Deck is is is loved, but also they're doing some rebranding here.
25:28
Like the previous VR headset is the Valve Index, not the Steam Index.
25:34
And and as you'll see later in the video, they're they're re they're renaming the product from Valve VR headset Valve Index to Steam Frame.
25:41
And so they're leaning more on this like Steam as their unified hardware brand even though the company is Valve.
25:48
Um and it feels like they're trying to create more unification across the brand.
25:52
So putting it all together >> be a good the the um the main >> controller.
25:58
>> No, the main uh uh computer.
25:58
Do you think it'll be good for like a sim sim racing rig?
26:04
>> Uh I think it would probably run I I think I think all of this would run uh sim racing extremely well.
26:09
The only thing is that you would still need to add the peripherals for correct like uh control and um >> uh like pedals and steering wheel, all that stuff.
26:20
Uh but but listen to this part. >> Steam machine here.
26:22
Here, go back like 10 seconds cuz this transition I think is really well done.
26:28
>> The new Steam controller works with any device running Steam or Steam Link, whether it's a PC, Mac, handheld, smartphone, Steam Deck, or the new Steam Machine.
26:37
Oh, this is the new Steam Machine. >> I like that.
26:41
It's like very like cute and quirky.
26:44
It has like I don't know, just like funny aesthetics, but they they that's the first time that they introduce the name of the product, the next the next product, and then they do it again like a minute or two later.
26:52
Uh, and I just think it's like uh it it it has this like sort of like friendly quirky like aesthetic that fits with the video games, but it's it doesn't feel like it's from anywhere in particular. It feels original. I don't know.
27:09
>> What do you think about the Black Cube? >> The Black Cube. >> I think it's fine.
27:13
I mean, it's it's it looks like it fits in a media console where it's going to live next to a PS5.
27:20
I actually think that that's probably better than the PS5 is such so such an awkward shape.
27:25
Like it's it's it's really like long and big. I don't know.
27:29
I I think that this is probably a better uh just like you can fit that on more on on more desks and in more closets and in more little media cabinets.
27:39
I wouldn't have gone anywhere.
27:40
I wouldn't have done anything differently.
27:44
>> The low latency wireless connectivity of the Steam Controller Puck built right in.
27:48
And it's great for streaming your games to your phone, tablet, laptop, Steam Deck, or Steam Frame. Oh, yep. This is Steam Frame.
27:57
>> See, they do it again and then they tell you, "Okay, we got a new VR headset."
28:01
And it's such a funny way to introduce like a new VR headset.
28:02
Like this is this is the first time they talk about this VR headset.
28:07
>> Next generation VR hardware.
28:07
Stream all your Steam games VR and nonVR alike in this comfortable, lightweight [music] wireless VR headset.
28:14
Steamframe uses camerabased tracking.
28:16
So getting into your games is as easy [music] as slipping on the headset and waking it up. >> So this is a shift.
28:21
They used to you used to have to mount cameras around your like gaming area basically and then it would track you with those cameras.
28:30
Now it's all done on the headset.
28:30
This is the same way the Apple Vision Pro works.
28:33
This is the same way the MetaQuest 3 works.
28:34
Uh this is not like new but it is it is new for Valve.
28:41
>> Steamframe also pairs seamlessly with the new Steam Controller.
28:43
A great companion for playing nonVR games in the headset.
28:46
To make sure streaming is smooth and stable no matter what, Steamframe includes a wireless adapter [music] that lets you stream your game.
28:53
This is to your headset over a fast and dedicated Wi-Fi 6 connection.
28:57
And the game is streamed to your frame optimized for VR using new technology that allows for the highest resolution streaming exactly where your eyes are looking.
29:06
And Steam Frame is a PC running Steam [music] OS.
29:10
In addition to streaming, you can install and play >> where you're looking in the VR headset that actually gets streamed to you in higher resolution than the rest of whatever else is in the headset >> because your eyes can, you know, like you're looking at me right now. I'm in full resolution. This is blurry.
29:26
So, it will send you a blurry rendering over here.
29:31
And this has been done in VR at the local level before, but they've figured out how to do it like like with in the in the latency loop with the like actually streaming.
29:43
So they call it like foviated streaming as opposed to fiated rendering.
29:46
Uh kind of the the next generation of this.
29:48
And so you should be able to play like very high fidelity VR games and stream them from this device.
29:54
And and all of that just keeps weight and heat off your face, which is exciting. >> Tyler, any reaction?
30:01
What would you pay for this?
30:01
I I think we should get the whole suite. I love it.
30:04
Let's play it on the on the fireplace.
30:05
You know, put it >> a former addict over here.
30:07
So, of course, he wants wants the whole >> Well, no, realistically, we're going to get this thing.
30:12
We're get we're going to get this.
30:14
We're get the 1X and then we're going to get that new uh Google model to play it for me.
30:17
And I'll come in and I'll be like, "How how'd you do this weekend, buddy? Did you crush?"
30:24
Because I was hanging out with my kids.
30:26
[laughter] >> I was going to baseball.
30:26
Uh, let me tell you about Vant.
30:28
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30:31
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30:40
Um, Michael Sailor >> is maybe not going down with this ship. Hold this.
30:47
>> This is the most insane.
30:49
>> It's the most insane thing that Let's start with the positive.
30:51
Let's start with the positive.
30:53
>> He looks like a He looks like a Chad.
30:53
He looks like an absolute.
30:55
Yes, he's in by himself in a rowboat.
30:58
You know, it looks like there's a bunch of people on the on the ship.
31:02
He's not worried about them.
31:05
He's worried about getting as far away from it as he can.
31:09
>> The ship is going down.
31:10
>> The ship is going down.
31:12
>> He's looking like an absolute Chad.
31:12
Jez says, "Brother, you were supposed to go down with the ship."
31:19
>> So, uh I just think, you know, this was posted.
31:22
[laughter] This was posted like, you know, very early in the morning this morning.
31:26
It's possible he just was playing around on uh Okay. No, no, no. He did not do this.
31:33
This is from an account called Atlas Hodled instead of Atlas Shrugged.
31:35
Atlas Hodddled uh with the orange uh square icon. Bitcoiner.
31:42
Atlas Hodddled describes themselves as Bitcoiner and AI artist.
31:47
>> He posted this from his own account. >> No, no, no, no.
31:49
He took the image from Atlas or he >> Okay.
31:53
You're saying he didn't make it. >> He didn't make it.
31:54
So, >> but he liked it and he thought it was a good idea to post. >> Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.
31:57
And so Atlas Hall wakes up every day and refers to themselves as a chronicler of Michael Sailor like like that like they're clearly like a super fan like they create fan fiction, fan content.
32:09
This was something that Atlas Hodddled generated and then Michael Sailor took it and was like, I gotta post this today when the stock's down like 50% or whatever.
32:21
>> Yeah, it's down uh 52% in the last 6 months and he thought, yeah, this is a great idea.
32:27
>> And so the crew and so the reaction has not been good because as Jez put it, brother, you are supposed to go down with the ship like he's the captain of the ship.
32:36
Why is he not on the ship? It's such a crazy image.
32:38
Michael Mir floor says, "So you're abandoning a sinking ship when you're supposed to be the captain." [laughter] Nice.
32:46
>> It's such it's such such a funny uh situation.
32:49
Um let me tell you about graphite.
32:52
dev and then Jordy, you can read the next one.
32:53
Code review for the age of AI.
32:56
>> Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster.
32:58
Uh you want to read this from Valuation.
33:01
>> Valuation says, "God, I love markets.
33:03
Where else do you get an objective answer to whether you're a genius or a total effing in real time?
33:09
master is down 50% since this was published.
33:12
And this is a quote from Sailor, the captain, Sailor himself.
33:14
He says, "Unless you do the requisite 100 plus hours of studying Bitcoin on top of a 100 plus hours of micro strategy, you should not enter this trade."
33:25
He said, "Because it is a very sophisticated trade that 99.
33:30
99% of Wall Street doesn't even understand."
33:37
And yeah, the problem with 99.
33:37
99% of Wall Street not understanding your your business model or your trade is that they might not buy and that might drive the price down, right? Isn't that >> Yes.
33:48
If institutional investors don't understand it, maybe they don't feel confident.
33:53
>> The So, so obviously people are dunking on this because the the stock has traded down 50% since this was published.
33:58
Um, I do think that there is something that's uh nice about posting something like this.
34:05
Like if you are running a meme stock um or you're running a company that that has a lot of retail attention, it's very nice to actually go to uh the community and say, "Hey, like you should really study for a 100 hours, study the asset that we're investing in and study this company.
34:24
You should make an educated decision."
34:26
It it it is a little bit of just like do your own research.
34:31
Uh although obviously the there's a little bit of read on this which is like which is just like I'm saying that I'm doing something so complicated when really I'm just hodling Bitcoin like by my own admission.
34:41
Um but I do I do think that there's something somewhat responsible about saying hey do the research. I don't know.
34:49
I want to give a little bit of credit for that. Yeah. Anyway, where to next?
34:55
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34:57
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35:05
>> They have a very funny campaign up around San Francisco right now.
35:07
Uh I won't I won't spoil it for you, but there's a number of fantastic billboards. >> Yes. Yes.
35:16
Uh, Caner Fitzgerald, now controlled by the son of Howard Lutnik, is having its best year ever, says Joe Weisenthal.
35:24
Congratulations to Brandon Lutnik.
35:27
Uh, one unusual item might appear on Caner Fitzgerald's year-end expense receipts.
35:32
Quote, I just left the floor and told someone I'm happy to buy them a cot because they need to come in on Sunday and not leave until Friday. joke.
35:40
Sage Kelly, 53, co-CEO of Cantor Investment Bank, as he sat down for an interview at his New York office.
35:47
Climbing Wall Street's league tables, jumping out in front of the cryptocurrency boom, and returning to spa fueled dealmaking.
35:51
The private New York financial boutique is having its busiest and most successful year on record.
35:57
Canour is now controlled by Brandon and Kyle Letic, the sons of Howard Lutnik, who joined Donald Trump's administration as commerce secretary earlier this year.
36:05
The firm is on track to post revenue in 2025 of upwards of 2.
36:10
5 billion, an all-time high, and a jump of more than a quarter on last year, according to people familiar with the matter.
36:17
When you >> How do they do it?
36:19
>> And you have >> How do they do it, John? >> How do they do it? A lot of grinding.
36:20
I' I've I've met Brandon.
36:22
Um uh and a lot of uh I mean, it feels like Cantor's been early to a bunch of like sort of risk more risk-on investments than uh other even pre-administration.
36:33
they were early to the stable coin thing, I believe, early to a bunch of crypto stuff.
36:39
Um, just a little bit more uh risk on relative to the other investment banks and so uh have done very well and then of course now uh even further entrenched in DC, further entrenched in Wall Street.
36:52
So >> yeah, that would certainly help give confidence around some some bets that maybe other firms would uh find a bit riskier.
37:00
riskier. Yeah, I mean there's a little bit of like like this year a lot of there's a lot of there's a lot of certainty that came to crypto but building that that um consensus around like okay the certainty is actually going to come there is certainty that certainty will arrive uh that took a big
37:20
uh big leap and you can you can see that if you know the administration very closely you could assess that whereas um people have been waiting around for certainty on tariffs and that's taken a little bit longer, but the certainty on the crypto stuff has certainly moved a lot faster. >> The executives bristle at suggestions
37:36
>> The executives bristle at suggestions that their new connections in Washington are contributing to that success.
37:42
Instead, they say Caner has grown with a lean team and is reaping the benefits of years of preparation for booms in sectors that more established banks have kept at arms length.
37:49
Its 250 deal makers are set to post revenue north of 1 billion.
37:54
At 4 million per banker, that's about double the rate at the firms on Wall Street. Huh. Interesting.
38:00
>> Um, >> caner has broken >> way lower than AI AI researchers.
38:05
They're like completely broke compared to AI researchers.
38:08
Like by a thousandx they're making like a thousand times less money than >> No, that's talking about the earnings that that individual.
38:17
>> So, so, so as a group they'll make a billion dollars. >> Yeah.
38:20
So, they could have just been one >> they could have picked the best guy that they had and gone into and spent all day training. >> Yeah.
38:27
So the the bankers are making four million on average.
38:29
Of course, there's also like the overhead of the firm. That's not profit. That's revenue. >> Yeah.
38:35
>> Versus at some of the labs, you might be making 400 million per Yeah. per per research.
38:41
>> So, uh, really picked the wrong industry to go into.
38:44
Uh, and you know, our heart goes out to them.
38:46
Caner has brokered more US IPOs by volume this year than any other firm and is fifth in all US equity offerings after overtaking stalwarts including Barclays and Croup.
38:58
It's seen a boom in trading largely from clients outside the US and is on track to acquire hedge fund OKConor from UBS Group by the end of the year.
39:05
A deal that's facing a lastminute hitch after the unit was hit by losses related to a bankrupt auto parts supplier First Brands Group.
39:14
Um, >> first Brand's really is really uh all over the place really wreaking wreaking havoc.
39:21
>> Uh, much of Caner's revenue hall comes from a surge in crypto dealm including fundraising for multi-billion dollar treasury companies which hold and trade digital assets, but also from the firm's early push into covering now booming sectors including rare earth minerals, quantum computing, robotics, and data centers. >> Wow.
39:38
>> They went along the boom and they they're making making it rain.
39:40
The rain makers are >> Kelly says, "I promise you we're not getting anything handed to us.
39:44
It's easy for our competitors to say that because they're not here living and breathing what we do every single day."
39:53
>> Um, anyways, uh, >> fantastic. >> Very impressive.
39:56
>> So, should we move over to >> Let's, uh, Alfred Lynn, >> yes, >> has hit the timeline.
40:00
He says, "The latest on outliers path, our Sequoia." This is our Sequoia.
40:05
It has always been our >> Is outlier a product? Outliers path?
40:07
I think that might be a blog. >> Oh, wait. Okay, sorry. Uh, Outliers Path.
40:15
Welcome to Outliers Path.
40:15
Having spent more than So, this is out I think this is Alfred Lynn's uh personal blog.
40:23
Uh, through this collection of posts on Outlier's Path, I hope to provide you with a provocation to get better at getting better and prove your critics wrong. Okay. Yes.
40:30
So, this is this is uh this is the name of his personal blog. Okay. Cool. >> AB in the chat. Legendary. Who's that?
40:40
>> Chat Star says, "I interned for Caner last summer. Great experience." >> Very cool. Very cool.
40:43
Um Alfred says, "This is our Sequoia.
40:46
It has always been our Sequoia.
40:48
It has always been our Iraqis. Our dude." [laughter] Uh no.
40:54
He says, "It was never Don Don's Sequoia nor Michaels, Doug's, Jims, or Roloffs.
41:00
From the very beginning when Don chose to build a partnership and name it after the longest living tree on earth, >> Sequoia was meant to endure not through individuals but through us the collective strength, integrity and vision of the partnership.
41:10
And just as it was not theirs alone, it will not be Pat and Alfred Sequoia.
41:15
It will always be our Sequoia.
41:18
>> We are responsible for something enduring.
41:20
Privileged to stand on the foundation built by those who came before us and responsible for making it stronger for those who will come after.
41:28
Together, we have the opportunity to do our life's work, to make a dent in the universe, to leave our fingerprints on the partnership, and to shape Sequoia into the place we want it to be for the future. Principles guide us.
41:36
Mash anchored in in purpose and mission.
41:42
[laughter] Beyond that, beyond that, we want to trust and empower one another.
41:45
Our purpose and mission remain to help the daring build legendary companies.
41:48
Um, for any Gen Z in the audience, >> Yeah.
41:54
how would you translate that?
41:54
>> Yeah. how would you translate that? Our purpose and mission remain to help those with motion >> develop aura >> the markets [laughter] >> aura farm the industry >> uh our guiding principles are >> is any of this like an update is
42:11
anything this like a very change to the strategy >> I think that this was just their first like you know really public statement as as the new coast >> yes but but but what is changing here like uh like like we already have the news that uh that they're that there are now two stewards. Um is there are they
42:28
Um is there are they going to be focusing more on AI companies or less on AI companies or like are they being more on growth stage or less on growth stage?
42:36
Like is there a change to the strategy?
42:40
>> No, I think I think this is just reminding people what the firmwide strategy is, right?
42:43
They've gone through this has been probably the roughest year on record for Seoia in terms of like comms, right?
42:52
just going through the Sean like Shawn Magcguire being in the headlines constantly.
42:57
No, >> that's not the kind of, you know, >> I feel like coverage that >> does not break through in tech and like >> I I don't think it I don't think it's affected their brand with founders and internally in the industry >> very much.
43:11
But um uh no, I I think this is this is just a good statement.
43:15
>> I mean, I guess I guess here is the answer to that question about like what is this a response to?
43:18
Uh and Alfred says, "Some people have asked if we will continue to make new investments and lead the investment team.
43:25
The answer is unequ is an unequivocal yes.
43:28
We will source and lead new investments and we will remain co-leads of the early and growth teams."
43:35
And so they're open for business. They're doing deals.
43:38
They want to actually be investing.
43:39
Um, >> and the big question >> I'm surp I I I Yeah, I I would imagine that like the leader at most firms uh is actually doing deals, but uh they usually have a different flavor to them, a different shape.
43:54
Like, you know, when I think about like like Mark Andre at Andre Horowitz, like he's he's clearly like the, you know, the leader of the firm to a degree that, you know, if you're coming in for your seed pitch, like you're probably not DMing him first, right?
44:08
He's not the first stop on the fundraising tour.
44:10
Uh but when Elon is raising money to take Twitter private, like yeah, he is texting with with Mark and that money does come out of Andre's coffers. Right. >> Yeah.
44:20
And if they and if they are aggressively trying to win a deal Yeah. that Mark might >> Yeah.
44:26
>> send the founder out directly. >> Exactly.
44:28
And and so and so uh when I look at Alfred, I would say, "Oh, well, if uh you know, Tony from Door Dash is working on a new >> from Door Dash is working on a new project or starting a new company or or you know, heavily investing in a friend's company like yeah, that probably goes straight to him."
44:45
Uh but no, he's probably >> traded down 23% in the last month. It's now Doash.
44:51
[laughter] Um uh but yeah, I mean he's uh he's probably not going to be like, you know, sitting there taking notes at YC demo day.
45:00
Uh although >> here's the big question with this post. >> Yes. Was it AI?
45:05
>> Alfred says at the end, this is not just a partnership. It is a living mdash.
45:07
It is a living breathing legacy. >> I don't know.
45:14
Uh I so it like it reads to me honestly it reads to me like yes it yes the blog post went through chatbt and got a and got a pass.
45:24
It got a pass judged up >> it got a pass.
45:27
I I would say that uh Alfred if that happened if that happened please do yourself a favor go to chat GBPT and go to your settings and in personalization put custom instructions and say never use m dashes.
45:40
>> But maybe this is just a way to publicly support a portfolio company openai. >> That's true. That's true.
45:44
And then also also uh the thing that's really triggering Jordy more than the M dashes I believe is uh what's called antithetical parallelism or con or contrastive construction.
45:55
That's it's not this, it's that.
45:58
For years, that's been a fine phrase, but for some reason in the reinforcement learning pipeline for >> this is actually the number one way that I detect AI generated comments on social media more than the mdash is >> the contra the contrast.
46:13
>> I'll be reading something that looks like a thought, you know, like some random social post and comment in there. >> It's not this. It's that. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, anyways. >> Yeah.
46:22
It's not it's not the it's not the the the username that triggers me.
46:25
It's the contrastive construction. [laughter] >> So, yes. Uh yeah. Yes. Yes.
46:32
You you should be able to like at least edit this out because I just find it annoying at this point.
46:37
Like I'm I I've just seen it so many times that I'm just like I need a different flavor of of text.
46:40
And so you can do this uh for a long time.
46:47
You could put this in your ch personalization. It and it wouldn't work.
46:50
It just didn't do anything.
46:50
uh and uh I complained about it on the show and Sam Alman announced that uh I think they fixed it and I think that I think that you if you want less m dashes uh Sam Alman says that uh removing m dashes.
47:01
So he says this is 14 hours a scoop possible.
47:08
Uh he says small but happy win.
47:10
If you tell chat GPT not to use m dashes in your custom instructions it finally does what it's supposed to do.
47:16
Somebody there somebody a screenshot was going viral yesterday of a of a newspaper >> and at the end of the article >> it said if you want I can also create an even snappier front page style version with punchy oneline stats and bold infographic ready layout.
47:34
>> What preferable for maximum reader impact?
47:36
Do you want me to do that next?
47:38
So they actually did >> that by accident.
47:39
[laughter] >> That's awesome. [gasps] I love it.
47:40
Well, if you want to generate uh images, video or audio, head over to Fall Generative Media Platform for developers.
47:48
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47:52
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47:53
Uh, speaking of generative video, we got to watch the cat. We got to watch the cat. >> Pull it up. >> We hate we Oh. Oh, I hate AI slop. I'm Jordy. I hate AI video. Sore is bad. Sore is bad. Wrong. Look at this video. >> Go home. It's remarkable.
48:10
The cat is playing the piano.
48:15
>> What did I say about the noise?
48:15
IT'S THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
48:17
>> And someone comes outside and takes it away.
48:20
>> There's something about the nature of uh the video bag pipes.
48:23
[laughter] I like the bag pipes one.
48:27
>> There's something about keeping the uh uh the video intentionally low res because it's a doorbell cam where it doesn't trigger the uncanny valley because the doorbell cam always looks bad.
48:39
Whereas if this was trying to look like 4K footage, it would not look as good.
48:44
That's >> We got to get that instrument.
48:46
>> That's a good That's a good instrument. >> You hear me?
48:48
>> I like that with this. Go home.
48:50
>> This is It's funny because they clearly created some sort of template. The digy do.
48:54
>> Hey, hey, knock it off. It's midnight. Give me that thing.
48:57
>> But it does get extremely repetitive because she always comes outside and says, "Knock it off again and again."
49:02
And so, uh, like seeing this just once is enough for me.
49:07
>> The symbols is pretty funny.
49:07
Physics on those symbols not quite right though.
49:12
You know, there's work to be done here. The gong. >> The gong.
49:15
>> I do like the cat hitting the gong is great.
49:18
The gong looks exactly like our gong, honestly.
49:22
>> Um, so it turns out >> midnight aerobics now is shaking. >> Okay, >> I'm into it.
49:28
How many >> Switzerland reaches agreement with the US to cut tariff to 15%. Mhm.
49:36
>> The deal would reduce an extraordinarily high tariff rate at 39% that had threatened to Swiss exports.
49:40
We all know what those exports are.
49:47
>> Uh the United States and Switzerland said on Friday that they had reached an agreement to lower a punishing 39% tariff on Swiss's goods, a change that will help to reduce the cost of exporting Swiss pharmaceuticals, gold, watches, and chocolate to the United States.
50:00
Uh the deal came after a meeting between US and Swiss government officials on Thursday and an unusual visit by a group of high level Swiss executives to President Trump in the Oval Office last week.
50:11
Uh the Trump admin put a 39% tariff on Swiss exports in August, blindsiding a longtime alliant ally and delivering a sharp blow to Switzerland's economy by significantly raising the cost of the country's exports the United States of drugs, dairy products, gold, and watches.
50:27
Uh the tariff was one of the highest rates set for any country, which administration officials said was in response to a sub substantial trade deficit the United States had with Switzerland.
50:39
>> Wonder [snorts] why we would have a large trade deficit with Switzerland.
50:42
Um the 15% tariff will now be the same as the tariff the United States charges on goods from the European Union, which reached a trade deal in July.
50:51
Um, so as part of this, um, there's going to be roughly two Swiss companies committed to making 200 billion in investments in the United States by 2028.
51:04
>> Uh, and uh, the United States also agreed to cap tariffs.
51:09
Uh, I didn't know Switzerland had a semiconductor industry. I had no idea. That's fascinating.
51:14
>> Capping those as well.
51:15
>> Well, they do have some AI researchers over there who are uh, who are like poach uh, for meta, right, Tyler? >> Yeah.
51:20
Uh, I think Lucas Byer was over there.
51:22
there was an open AI uh team set up over there.
51:25
>> Yeah, it's interesting that I I haven't heard of a of a open AI team in many of the other European countries.
51:31
It seems like Switzerland was like a uniquely like place.
51:35
>> I think most of the I mean there's a lot of AI going on at uh I never know how to say ETH Zurich. >> Yeah. Yeah.
51:42
>> There's that university that's like very it's like it's like the premier European >> Ethereum Zurich. [laughter] >> Yeah. >> It's not right.
51:49
No, >> it is different though, right? Yeah. Yeah. No, ETH.
51:52
Uh I should look up what it stands for, but there's a lot of AI like um research going on there. >> That's cool.
52:00
>> Situation room says PC to open factory in Wisconsin.
52:03
[laughter] >> That would be hilarious. >> Wisconsin made PC.
52:07
Um what what have you have you been monitoring the the the GPT 5. 1 launch?
52:15
Like is it has it been going well?
52:17
>> It feels like it's been like kind of quiet, but it's >> people seem to generally like it.
52:19
Um I I don't know if I mean they didn't release benchmarks so a lot of the like technical people aren't like super yeah >> concerned.
52:29
I mean I I >> saw some charts that kind of showed that it it's more that uh they're just pushing the model router like further to the edges so it can reason for even longer if it needs to and it can reason for even less time if it if it just can come up with the answer quick more quickly.
52:46
And so all of that feels like better cost optimization instead of just hitting everything with a hammer.
52:51
Not everything needs 20 minutes of thinking.
52:54
Uh some things need 30 minutes though and some things needs one minute of thinking.
52:58
>> I I tested it using GT3 RS bench. >> Yes.
53:02
>> Where I was trying to have >> You were going Aenta Commerce mode though. Yes.
53:05
Which is a little bit early.
53:08
>> I'm just using Did you use agent mode? >> No. Uh no. >> Okay. Yeah.
53:11
I think I think if you do agent mode it would so to to say exactly what happened because it's an interesting failure case.
53:18
>> I just said find me a GT3 RS uh green 992 in the US that's currently listed for sale. >> Yes. >> And it found me one. >> Yes.
53:29
>> That was on Cars and Bids. Yes.
53:29
That sold over two years ago.
53:33
>> Well, Cars and Bids clearly Doug Demiro site.
53:36
Uh cool cars from the modern era.
53:38
Um we love Cars and Bids. We love Doug Demiro.
53:41
But, uh, that is frustrating because it had already sold, but I think with agent mode, it would have actually like opened the website and clicked around a little bit more.
53:50
Um, I'm not exactly sure how to trigger that, but uh, maybe you just need to chat with it more.
53:57
Maybe you need to be clear about your prompt.
53:58
You might have needed to do 3. 5 Pro or uh, what is it? 5 point 5. 0 Pro, I guess, now. >> Yeah, five. >> Yeah, five five pro.
54:06
I mean, it feels like we're back running the same prompt agent mode right now.
54:10
Okay, we'll we'll see how it does. We'll come back to it.
54:13
>> And is there a difference between agent mode on 5.
54:14
1 and agent mode on five pro? I don't know anymore. I don't know.
54:20
They're it's getting they're they they did such a good job of like narrowing it down and like unconfusing it.
54:24
And then now they're like, let's put a little bit more confusion in.
54:28
Let's just add a little bit back. The fact that it says 5. 1 is like crazy to me.
54:32
It's like [laughter] >> chat wants to know about all the cans behind behind Tyler. >> Yeah. And what you got?
54:39
You got Red Bulls back there.
54:41
[laughter] >> I got energy drink. >> You got Yeah.
54:43
U called it pallets of fridge.
54:50
>> Your >> Yeah, there's some DC.
54:51
>> Your background is actually hilarious.
54:54
>> We should We should move the >> We should move the refrigerator uh to the other side so we can see the refrigerator because the refrigerator's lit lit lit up.
55:01
So if you slide to the right.
55:03
Yeah, you can see the fridge. There we go. It's cool.
55:04
Uh, so we should flip that around.
55:06
Uh, or or maybe just move the camera.
55:08
But, uh, anyway, uh, you you might have noticed Jord's wearing the puffer jacket.
55:13
That's because we are sponsored by Turbo Puffer.
55:17
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55:26
Uh, Wilmanitis took to the timeline to say in the flow in quotes.
55:28
He says the essential question for the modern allocator, the deal guy or the venture capitalist is do you want to be in the flow?
55:36
Size of check, size of fund, personal economics, character of deal, character of behavior, lifestyle, and every other single question is downstream of whether or not you are in the flow or not. Let me explain. >> Is this Tyler?
55:49
Do you think this has something to do with having motion? >> It seems related.
55:56
>> I mean, Will was kind of like unk status.
55:57
I don't know if he would I Whoa. >> Shots fired. >> Shots fired. >> Calling him ank. >> Like what?
56:03
He I >> I mean, is this because you believe I I I thought he was very young.
56:07
I thought he was a teal fellow just a few years ago.
56:10
[laughter] >> No one knows how old he is.
56:12
>> Is there a theory that he could be?
56:14
>> Uh he's certainly wise beyond theory.
56:17
>> No, but I'm saying this is like the equivalent of having motion. So I I agree with you. >> Okay. Okay.
56:21
>> But like I don't think he would be one to use that kind of that vernacular. >> The parliance. Yeah. Uh, let me explain.
56:28
Think of the flow as the world's greatest nightclub. It's open 24/7.
56:29
Many of the coolest and richest guys are there.
56:34
Guys seem to get rich just by dent of hanging around.
56:36
And the lights never turn on.
56:38
It's a party that never ends inside the flow.
56:40
The only decision you have to make is to keep partying.
56:45
Sure, people get hurt inside the flow.
56:47
Sometimes guys buy tables they can't afford or get addicted to habits they can't maintain.
56:50
When this happens, the flow gently returns them to pedestrian life, and the party continues.
56:56
No one ever seems to notice.
56:58
When you're inside the flow, the only thing you notice is the guys at higher rungs dangling over a seemingly endless set of 10x markups and lifestyle expenses to exhaust your newly found carry.
57:11
Inside the flow, we don't fly commercial.
57:13
Mark Rowan is constantly calling and we have houses on Jin Lane.
57:20
Uh the flow gives us uh gives to those who give to it.
57:24
There's nothing wrong with being in the flow.
57:25
Many great investors live their lives entirely inside of it and have beautiful economics, families, and even return capital to incredible endowments inside the flow.
57:34
But very few people make the conscious decision to realize that life is possible outside the flow.
57:39
That you can get rich, build great companies, generate excess returns by being far far outside the flow.
57:46
But you can only have one foot in.
57:49
But you can't only have one foot in.
57:51
If you're going to enter the flow, you must do it entirely.
57:53
No one gets rich hunting for value on Madison Avenue.
57:57
If you're in the business of buying marquee assets, you need to systemically order your life around paying marquee prices across asset classes.
58:07
You can neatly order firms into in the flow and out of the flow firms.
58:11
In the flow tend to have softer J curves because they're able to quickly make deals.
58:16
consensus and achieve markups through other friends at the party.
58:21
Firms outside the flow tend to be a bit slower, have much more profound J curves, but can achieve incredible returns if they persevere.
58:28
Many of the social oddities of allocators are actually social oddities of being in the flow.
58:34
My friend Kyle Tucker names the main one below.
58:39
>> Going guy for guy at every social occasion. >> Explain.
58:44
I can't believe what he said at the at the Apollo AGM in Lake Cuomo.
58:51
>> Uh, Ari Emanuel introduced me to the Pope.
58:53
I just bought ramp forwards at 500X from Bill Aman's dog walker.
58:58
[laughter] >> This is >> if you if you find yourself with a strong distaste for this lifestyle. That's okay.
59:03
There's a rich life possible outside of the flow.
59:05
But you need to make the consensus decision day in and day out to either be in the flow decision.
59:12
Oh, conscious uh to either be in the flow or far outside.
59:14
The flow only gives to those who give their all to it.
59:19
What a great piece of writing. That's funny.
59:22
Nasim Talib said, "The opposite of success isn't failure.
59:25
It's named dropping the bed of procrusties."
59:29
Uh somebody, [laughter] you know, Antonio says, "In my experience during booms, most get flow curious, then pull back.
59:37
Then the pullback comes and people become contrarian and look down their noses at flow folks without even the self-awareness to refer to their dabblings as a phase from when I was younger.
59:48
And Wilminitis says you are describing being half in half out of the flow. This will kill you.
59:53
The flow takes from those who attempt to take from it without giving their all in return.
59:58
The flow only gives to those who give their all.
1:00:03
Uh it reads like a plot of a horror film.
1:00:07
>> [laughter] >> It's fantastic.
1:00:08
Then or like the the substance.
1:00:12
>> Write write a write a novel, Will, please. >> Yeah. What away with words.
1:00:15
Um, do you think this is inspired by uh that uh that conference he went to?
1:00:20
It was more outside of the flow potentially. >> I think so.
1:00:26
>> I think I think that might be a little bit of what of what's going on than that main street.
1:00:29
You see I mean we we talk about this with David Senra a lot where who's coming on the show in in just a few hours.
1:00:34
Um, >> wait, >> wait, what is he do?
1:00:36
We were Were we not supposed to say that? Sorry.
1:00:40
>> Uh, >> I think he's coming on.
1:00:41
>> He He said he was he was scheduled. >> Okay.
1:00:44
>> And then we took him off the schedule cuz he had to travel for the day.
1:00:48
>> Uh, then he then he had some plane issues >> and he said save the 2 p. m.
1:00:52
spot and then now he's he's on another on another >> Well, we'll get him back on the show soon, but yeah, if you're listening to the show, you obviously know who David Center is.
1:01:02
uh the creator of the founders podcast and the host of David Senra with David Senra.
1:01:06
Um but uh David is someone who who has observed folks inside the flow and outside the flow and really sees both sides of it I think and that's one of his unique unique strengths is that uh he is not entirely captured by the flow and because and and maybe maybe uh Will's point would hold in the capital allocator world you have to be in the flow or out of the flow. You can't be half in.
1:01:33
Um but uh but it certainly does not hold true for what David does which is uh you know storytelling and understanding the history of greatest uh the world's greatest entrepreneurs.
1:01:46
>> The flow I think could be summed up by are you dancing in Manhattan? >> Yeah, >> right.
1:01:52
It's very very Manhattan thing in Manhattan but also in Sand Hill Road I think is is similar.
1:01:59
>> Uh are you dancing with Google AI Studio?
1:02:01
Create an AI powered app faster than ever.
1:02:04
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1:02:13
>> Will says, "Friends that have done well in the flow seem to share these traits."
1:02:17
>> This is such a long post again.
1:02:19
>> Now, he he had to follow it up.
1:02:19
He says, "Spend 100% of net cash on rent expenses, so they constantly feel pressure." >> Okay, >> love that.
1:02:26
Uh, Zegna sneakers, ABC cardigans. Okay. >> I felt very direct.
1:02:32
>> I don't know what either of us. >> We'll educate you. >> Yes.
1:02:36
>> Low first marriage success rates, high second marriage success. >> Okay. Okay.
1:02:40
>> Uh lots of flights, constant 23, three city rotation. >> Couldn't be.
1:02:44
>> Spend 99% of their time talking about deals that make up less than 5% of deployed dollars. >> Okay.
1:02:50
>> Office either in Soho or 9 West. >> Oh. Oh.
1:02:52
So, he's really calling out his his Manhattanite friends, his neighbors.
1:02:58
Now, here's where he contradicts himself. Oh, no, maybe not.
1:02:59
He says, "Constantly holding large amounts of cash main function seems to be tipping a couple grand.
1:03:06
>> You're you're a notorious tipper.
1:03:06
You're a notorious cash tipper."
1:03:08
So, you you fit into this piece.
1:03:10
Uh we should uh >> very low laptop usage, constant cell phone usage. >> Okay.
1:03:16
>> Can't make it through an hour without taking a call.
1:03:19
>> We had a workout with one of these guys this morning.
1:03:21
We felt we felt really We felt really bad.
1:03:22
This this guy, we showed up to the gym for a workout and had breakfast with him. a good buddy.
1:03:27
>> And he he had to he he had had to step away for three calls. >> He was on the grind.
1:03:33
Like by the time we had like our first coffee of the morning, he'd had four calls. It was crazy. >> Yeah.
1:03:41
>> Uh you know, we barely had one call before the show because we're like we're so we're in our own flow.
1:03:46
Our flow is not the flow. It's it's the TBPN flow.
1:03:51
Uh we spend like no time talking to other people except on the show.
1:03:54
Uh, so it's a very very different lifestyle I think from like what he's describing, but I've seen this and and uh I mean this would again just work as a novel or a movie.
1:04:04
We're we're watching the birth of a modern Brett East and Ellis.
1:04:06
I know you haven't seen American Psycho, but it's a fantastic film.
1:04:10
You should check it out sometime.
1:04:11
It's also an interesting book.
1:04:13
Uh and uh and and and the the Patrick Baitman of the 90s is you know this is a this would be a great foundational portrait of an individual who could be stylized in the in a Brett East style which would be very very interesting.
1:04:32
Uh let's continue reading but first let me tell you about profound get your brand mentioned in chat reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover new products and brands. So where were we? They have a lot of cash. They're in Soho.
1:04:43
9 West >> lunch guys more more so than dinner guys. Never breakfast guys.
1:04:49
>> Lacrosse or hockey in high school. Not rowing. Okay, that's Tyler.
1:04:52
>> Wait, which one did you do? >> Lacrosse guy. >> I played lacrosse.
1:04:55
>> Oh, flow guy right here.
1:04:57
>> Zoom calls, not sell calls. I can see that.
1:05:00
>> Uh, friends that have done out done well out of the flow.
1:05:03
>> I can't tell if it Do you want to be in the flow or outside the flow?
1:05:04
I I guess the whole point of this is that you either want to be all the way in maximizing it, flow maxing, or you want to be rejecting it entirely.
1:05:10
You just don't want to be Let's get into the out offlow zone.
1:05:13
Be in the middle of nowhere.
1:05:15
Jackson, Park City, Discover. >> Okay.
1:05:18
>> Like uh properties, but still on a resort.
1:05:21
Multiple dogs, mostly more dogs than kids.
1:05:25
>> Usually low trust, kind of cagey to pin down and get a meeting with.
1:05:27
Once they trust you, you can't get rid of them. >> Okay.
1:05:31
>> Uh almost universally happily married.
1:05:34
Rowing in high school, not lacrosse or hockey. >> I like how specific.
1:05:37
>> Low meeting count, lots of depth.
1:05:37
I think I know the two people he's like describing here.
1:05:41
I'm not going to do some people. >> Yeah.
1:05:43
[laughter] >> Phone calls, not Zooms. >> Yeah.
1:05:47
>> Denim shirts or full suit.
1:05:49
>> Does one begin with a T? >> Yes. >> Okay.
1:05:53
>> Seems to have unspeakable amount of money.
1:05:55
>> Does one begin with a J?
1:05:57
>> What >> does one begin with a J? >> Yeah. >> Okay.
1:05:59
[laughter] >> Always funding some cultural project, movie, magazine, etc.
1:06:05
that's on the brink of failing. Okay.
1:06:07
So, I will say both of these are friends of the show.
1:06:12
First one first one has not been on the show. Second one has been.
1:06:14
That's the only the only >> Okay. Wait, wait, wait. I Okay.
1:06:17
Yeah, we we could go more into later.
1:06:19
[laughter] This is hilarious though.
1:06:21
I feel like both these guys have been on the show.
1:06:25
Uh we've clearly had uh many specimens who fit into both.
1:06:28
uh and and I think Will's Will's point is that uh there are multiple ways to make a buck and there are just different archetypes within the world of capital allocation within the world of of uh being a deals guy.
1:06:39
I think this is this is interesting.
1:06:43
It's like we're we're peeling back the onion.
1:06:46
We're going a layer deeper on the deals guy archetype which has been uh you know been workshopped by Will and and Jeremy Gon over the last few weeks. So they're having fun.
1:06:56
Are you guys more in the flow or out of the flow, do you think?
1:07:00
>> I I don't think I don't think we qualify for either because we are not deals guys.
1:07:03
We are not capital allocators.
1:07:03
I think step one of even deciding if you're in or out of the flow is the first line of Will's original post.
1:07:09
The essential question for the modern allocator, the deal guy, the venture capitalist. I'm not a deals guy. I'm not an allocator.
1:07:16
I'm not a venture capitalist.
1:07:18
So, it's an irrelevant question.
1:07:19
It's like it's like, are you more of a center or power forward?
1:07:21
It's like I'm a podcaster.
1:07:24
I that that doesn't even apply.
1:07:26
Uh and so you can only be in the flow or out of the flow if you are at least in the game, the game of capital allocation.
1:07:35
And uh it's a it's a funny time to reflect.
1:07:37
Uh anyway, let's move on to linear.
1:07:42
Linear is a purpose-built tool for planning and building products, an ecosystem for modern software development, streamline issues, projects, and product road maps.
1:07:48
Uh just in the stock market is in extreme fear and the ball is being thrown at is that Kobe?
1:07:58
>> Yes, that's Kobe John. Unfazed. >> He's unfazed. >> Completely unfazed. Skooks is unfazed.
1:08:03
>> We checked in with our with our retail correspondent.
1:08:05
Uh he was shook at 6:30 in the morning or something. What was it? 5:30 in the morning.
1:08:11
He woke up and he was looking at the pre-market report, seeing red, very nervous.
1:08:15
It was no no it was 30 seconds after the >> okay after the opening when the stocks dived.
1:08:22
Uh he is monitoring the situation much more than we are.
1:08:26
I I watch the public market moves on the order of like >> weeks you know or even you know oh there's a big day it's on the cover of the Wall Street Journal I'll throw on the white suit.
1:08:35
Uh I am not monitoring it hour to hour >> market based on the the color of the suit.
1:08:41
>> Totally because I I I really do think in more of like months and and years and longer time horizons than than days in Yes.
1:08:49
I think in centuries actually [laughter] >> thinking >> uh this uh this new >> options uhesque platform. >> Okay.
1:08:59
>> Euphoria has been going viral.
1:08:59
Ben Iert says, "Honestly, this is so cute and I'm fun. I'm not even mad. I love gambling. This is so gamified.
1:09:06
I don't think it presents as investing or democratization of derivatives or whatever. It's entertainment. And look at this. >> What is this?
1:09:15
>> Tyler, are you playing this? >> Should I get on this?
1:09:18
>> Well, I mean, Jordy, should we talk about like one of our most degenerate ideas ever?
1:09:25
>> I mean, at this point, like it's just going to Yeah.
1:09:26
The Z the the zero minute option. [laughter] >> Yeah.
1:09:30
>> I mean, at this point, like, somebody's just going to build it.
1:09:32
At least we'll be on record for joking about it.
1:09:33
So, two years ago, when shortly after Jordy and I met, uh, we were introduced through by Will Manitis.
1:09:40
Uh, we were kicking around ideas.
1:09:42
One of those ideas was a nicotine pouch for Finance Bros called Excel.
1:09:48
We actually wound up launching that.
1:09:49
You might have seen that.
1:09:50
We've talked about that on the show.
1:09:51
Uh, the other thing that we kicked around was, so if you've been tracking options trading, you can now buy zeroday options.
1:09:58
These are options that expire after one day.
1:10:01
So you're only betting on the movement of the stock over the course of one day.
1:10:06
And uh and my idea or our idea was uh what if you made it more DGEN?
1:10:13
What if you made it zero minute options and you got it down to something on the order of how long it takes to pull a slot machine and then watch the slots tick over.
1:10:23
slots tick over. So you would be democratizing highfrequency trading for example and you would be uh placing a bet you would the the the the UI was effectively you buy $1 of this out of the money option in 90% of the time you
1:10:40
lose the dollar uh like you do when you're playing slots or you lose the penny um but you know onetenth of the time you 10x your money and that's the nature and basically you can you can derive the exact same probabilities that exist in a slot in a literal slot machine. You can derive those exact same
1:11:00
You can derive those exact same probabilities from the financial markets with particular derivative instruments like mathematically you can recreate a slot machine that acts with the exact same probabilities using derivatives using zero minute options.
1:11:15
We'd have terrible founder market fit on that one because I don't >> horrible horrible >> but it was fun talking about for >> but it's but it's hilarious and it's one of those things.
1:11:24
The the the real problem is that like it is just a this is just a market entry tool.
1:11:27
You're going to become like sort of a meme and then you have to go build the rest of the financial institution and then you're up against Coinbase and Robin Hood and Public and a whole bunch of other serious competitors who have way more infrastructure.
1:11:40
And so, uh, like the the the cute little game, uh, can be a good a good marketing tool to launch your company, but there's a lot more that you have to do.
1:11:50
Um, but it can still be profitable.
1:11:52
And, uh, hopefully you're doing it in a in a in a way that isn't just totally DGEN gambling because [laughter] >> yeah, it's a little bit of DGEN on DGEN uh, combat out there.
1:12:04
But you know what's not degenerate? Numeral. com. sales tax and autopilot.
1:12:09
Spend less than five minutes per month on sales tax compliance.
1:12:14
Go get uh build an honest product.
1:12:17
Start a woodworking shop. Make a chair. Sell it on Shopify. >> Sell mahogany online.
1:12:25
>> Sell the official wooded business online.
1:12:27
>> S for Satoshi says the AI bubble has already popped.
1:12:30
[laughter] >> I said this too. I said this too.
1:12:32
Three weeks ago, the stock traded down 2%. The bubble popped.
1:12:36
Now we're back to reinflating. Yeah, exactly.
1:12:38
I agree with >> uh Sim says the information, however, is yet to propagate evenly.
1:12:42
And he's sharing a quote from Scott McNeely, CEO of Sun Micro Systemystems in 2002.
1:12:51
Uh the quote at 10 times revenue to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 years straight in dividends.
1:12:58
That assumes I can get that by my shareholders.
1:13:00
That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company.
1:13:05
That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees.
1:13:08
That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard.
1:13:10
And that assumes you have to pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal.
1:13:16
And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate.
1:13:20
Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64?
1:13:23
Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are?
1:13:28
You [snorts] don't need any transparency.
1:13:29
You don't need any footnotes. What were you thinking?
1:13:34
>> [laughter] [gasps] >> What was Sun Micro Systems trading for in 2000?
1:13:38
And then what were they trading for in 2002?
1:13:40
Because this reads like he's apologizing for a massive sell-off in the stock. That is pretty crazy. >> Um, yeah.
1:13:50
What a what a wild uh I like Bone here.
1:13:54
Bone GBD says, "If you're if you're in AI, pivot to finance and go short." It's ridiculous.
1:14:00
Uh, Bad Mitten is live streaming in China and you can adjust whatever angle you want. This is very cool.
1:14:09
So, they film it with a whole bunch of different cameras and then you can pick the angle.
1:14:13
Imagine being able to pick your own angle while watching TVPN live.
1:14:19
That would be something special.
1:14:21
Maybe we should steal this back from the Chinese.
1:14:24
This seems like some awesome innovation.
1:14:25
Uh, now Tyler, you don't think this is uh Gaussians splatting, right? Gossian splat. >> Uh, no. I mean, it's not smooth.
1:14:32
So, >> this is just a bunch of cameras.
1:14:34
>> It looks like a bunch of cameras, but you could do this with Gaussian splatting. >> Yeah.
1:14:38
Uh, I think that'll be the next the next iteration, the next version, but we're pretty far away from like real time on that. Right.
1:14:45
>> Real one knows that the the shuttlecock is the fastest moving object that's been recorded in sports. >> Really?
1:14:52
>> Goes hundreds of miles an hour. >> Hundreds? >> Yes. >> No way.
1:14:55
I mean, it's it's like faster than a golf ball, faster than a bowl.
1:15:00
Yes, >> it's faster than a football.
1:15:01
It's faster than That's crazy.
1:15:03
hundreds of miles an hour.
1:15:06
>> They confirm golf ball.
1:15:07
>> Uh, I'll put you in the truth zone there.
1:15:09
What about rifle shooting?
1:15:09
Does it go faster than a gun?
1:15:11
You've seen those at the Olympics where they're shooting the pistols, right?
1:15:15
It can't possibly go faster than a gun, than a bullet from a rifle in a in tathon. >> No way. I got you dead to right.
1:15:25
>> Okay, so this is AI overviews.
1:15:25
It's probably hallucinating and it says this.
1:15:31
This actually you might have found a really incredible >> insight. >> Uh, >> okay. Hole in the reasoning. Okay.
1:15:35
What do you >> uh No, a bullet is not faster than a bad mitten shuttlecock. >> No. Let's go, >> I guess.
1:15:43
But so they're talking about bird uh >> keep looking. >> Okay.
1:15:48
Bad mitten shuttlecock speed during bad mitten uh game.
1:15:50
Uh how fast does that go?
1:15:54
I want miles per hour hopefully.
1:15:56
And then I want to know how fast an F1 car goes and how fast a a bullet out of one of those pistols goes at at the uh at the Olympics because we all know that iconic image of the woman uh and the Turkish guy at the Olympics and the guy with all the gear uh shooting. >> AI is is false.
1:16:17
[laughter] >> AI is false.
1:16:22
>> Does anyone have any real numbers?
1:16:23
Anyone have any real numbers? >> Uh, okay.
1:16:25
Like a top speed for a shuttle clock is like 300 miles an hour. >> 300 miles an hour.
1:16:28
And how much is a bullet coming out of >> 2,000 miles an hour? >> 2,000 mph. Wow.
1:16:32
So off by an order of magnitude, Jordy in the truth zone. It's okay.
1:16:37
We'll clip it in a way that makes it sound. We won't clip.
1:16:40
We won't include the correction. We'll just clip.
1:16:45
>> This is some of the best AI generated content.
1:16:48
>> No, a bullet is not faster than a bad mitten shuttlecock.
1:16:50
A bad mitten shuttlecock is the fastest moving object in sports.
1:16:53
While bullets can travel at over 2,000 miles an hour. >> Wow.
1:17:00
>> Let's give it up for digital guys.
1:17:00
We didn't create digital god.
1:17:02
We >> guys, this is something like your bo would say.
1:17:06
This is something your your your guy would say.
1:17:08
Uh Allad Gil is doubling his fund target to nearly three billion.
1:17:13
Uh congratulations to Allah Gil.
1:17:16
Let's uh let's ring the gong. First gong of the day.
1:17:19
First gong of the day is >> Ryan says, "AI told me that John's gong is faster than a bullet." >> I believe that.
1:17:27
>> Let's go over to the We have a new We have a new uh segment of the show.
1:17:30
We have uh different press releases that have been coming through. Let's see. Oh, yes. Okay. We got the mic. We got the PTZ camera.
1:17:39
Are you guys tracking me? Where are we doing? Are we tracking me? Who's tracking me?
1:17:42
I I I I Oh, it's this one. It's this camera. Uh okay.
1:17:44
So, uh, first, uh, let's see. Cursor at 29. 3 billion.
1:17:52
We had Spencer on the show yesterday to talk about it. They raised 2.
1:17:56
3 billion in its third funding round this year. Third in the year.
1:17:58
It used to raise money every 12 to 18 months.
1:18:01
Now, it's every 3 months.
1:18:04
Maryland Governor Wes Moore announces landmark AI partnership to transform state service delivery.
1:18:12
Uh, what is going on here?
1:18:12
Wes Moore announced a landmark partnership with Anthropic and Percepa, a general catalyst transformation company, to harness AI to in tackling child poverty, expanding housing access.
1:18:26
So, they're going to ask Claude to build houses, I guess, something like that.
1:18:33
Uh, Anthropic will provide Claude to workers across Maryland's state agencies and lend technical support to help design, deploy AI powered initiatives.
1:18:43
One example includes a new cloudpowered virtual assistant that will help residents apply for benefits, update information, and track applications.
1:18:52
What do you think, Jordy?
1:18:55
>> Thumbs up, thumbs down.
1:18:55
I mean, honestly, like if if there's is there a better like like the DMV website notoriously is bad.
1:19:01
If you could have an AI agent in use it instead, that's probably an upgrade. Congrats to them. Uh what else we got? Team Shares.
1:19:06
Team Shares, a tech enabled.
1:19:08
Acquirer of high quality small and medium enterprises is listing on the NASDAQ via Live Oak V combination $126 million pipe led by accounts uh advised by Tro Price.
1:19:22
I like I like how nobody wants to say spa anymore.
1:19:27
They just all the words around it.
1:19:30
[laughter] >> Team Shares acquisition based. Is that what this is?
1:19:33
Uh Teamshares programmatically acquires companies with half a million to 5 million of EBITDA from retiring owners, integrates them with the Team Shares platform, and helps employees earn company stock.
1:19:45
So they're rolling stuff up.
1:19:49
>> Slow ventures company. >> That's right. That's right. Uh what else we got?
1:19:52
YC startup multiffactor launches the first password manager built for the AI era.
1:19:58
That's going to be tough competition, right?
1:20:01
Because one password is extremely sticky and potent like he's not he's not asleep at the wheel.
1:20:06
We've had the CEO on the on the show, the uh the the One Password team partner with Browserbase and is obviously trying to be, you know, the one password for the AI era.
1:20:16
But there are some other folks. Why are you laughing?
1:20:17
I'm laughing cuz Gabe, I think, is looking at uh the happy dad in the corner. >> Yeah.
1:20:23
>> Uh which is which of course we have here because we love John from Happy John.
1:20:28
>> We support our friends.
1:20:29
>> Uh so this is let's read this.
1:20:32
Multiffactor Y Combinator fall 2025.
1:20:32
So we might have interviewed this company.
1:20:37
Uh founded by a former CIA agent. That's pretty cool.
1:20:41
And a former NASA scientist. Wow, what a team.
1:20:43
uh today announced the launch of its first kind password manager that allows both humans and AI agents to access online accounts securely without ever underlying exposing underlying credentials.
1:20:57
A public demonstration of its proprietary security technology.
1:21:01
The company will temporarily make its actual corporate bank account accessible to the public starting on November 12th through a readonly checkpoint link containing $1 million in business funds. Uh that's a cool stunt.
1:21:14
Um I wonder I wonder what their go to market will be fully.
1:21:16
their go to market will be fully. I wonder how they'll how they'll whether they'll wind up going more enterprise and then and then down into the individuals or like what one password did they got a bunch of consumers on and eventually people uh eventually people started using it in business like like
1:21:32
we do you know we started using it personally and then eventually for business uh introducing superme the AI native professional network they're going up against LinkedIn I guess uh the business the best practices of building companies are of are unevenly distributed every great company has pockets of excellence and its own blind spots. The knowledge behind they're
1:21:50
The knowledge behind they're announcing an AI native uh AI native professional network. What else is in here?
1:21:58
There's a big stack here.
1:21:58
Beehive is taking aim at Substack, Squarespace, and something else.
1:22:02
Uh it's >> [laughter] >> uh there's a notification popup that says, "Would you like to would you like you like notifications?"
1:22:09
Look at this, [laughter] dude.
1:22:12
It's like, oh yeah, like here's our press release, but like you know, you can't read whatever. I guess Patreon. It's probably Patreon. There you go. Okay.
1:22:18
We A sweeping product release of 10 new tools spans website creation, podcasting, digital product sales, and analytics. Congrats to Beehive. Um, >> Triple Glaze. >> Triple Glaze.
1:22:29
Uh, Beehive is no longer just a newsletter platform.
1:22:32
On Thursday, the company released a sweeping slate of 10 new products at its winter release event, repositioning itself as creator content operating system.
1:22:42
According to co-founder and chief exe executive Tyler Denk, uh, Beehive's been on a tear.
1:22:47
I know a bunch of people that love it.
1:22:51
We're obviously on Substack. Go to tbpn.
1:22:52
com, sign up for our Substack.
1:22:52
Um, there's been, uh, we've talked to some people that have used both. They're both cool.
1:22:59
Uh, probably some reasons to use Beehive, some reasons to use um to use uh, Beehive, and some and some reasons to use Substack.
1:23:08
Kind of just depends on your uh, your use case.
1:23:09
And then the last one is airjul technologies announces third quarter results and provides business updates.
1:23:15
This is a tech platform that unleashes the power of water from air. Interesting.
1:23:19
Uh AirJuel is addressing emerging opportunities driven by powerful macro trends that are fundamentally reshaping global water and energy markets.
1:23:30
That is uh >> let's give it up for global water markets.
1:23:35
>> Pulling water from air.
1:23:35
You know what I was laughing about?
1:23:36
I was thinking uh you know Bezos has spent something like what 25 10 billion dollars on Blue Origin.
1:23:43
Um and uh there's so many billionaires that have just wasted like hundreds of billions of dollars when they could like trying to do world hunger when they could have been building rockets.
1:23:52
Like we need to we need to you know really really shame the the billionaires who are wasting money on something that's just nonsense instead of like building rockets.
1:24:01
They got to build rockets.
1:24:03
That's what we got to do. You've seen that? >> Wait, who said that?
1:24:08
>> There's there's there's constantly a there's constantly a wave.
1:24:10
I'm I'm I'm I'm joking about the constant wave of like >> Elon could Elon could cure world hunger.
1:24:17
Well, there's a bunch of billionaires that have been trying to cure world hunger.
1:24:19
They spent 100 billion on it.
1:24:21
They could have been building rockets.
1:24:23
>> Uh anyway, uh the number one AI agent for customer service, number one in performance benchmarks, number one competitive bakeoffs, number one ranking on G2.
1:24:30
Elon's Elan's public service is making a car that costs less than a gym membership.
1:24:36
[laughter] >> It's really going to be like a $50 car.
1:24:42
Oh, where did we where did we land on the on the Roadster?
1:24:44
So, the new Roadster, we we talked about this in the show.
1:24:48
Elon went on Rogan and he said, "Maybe it'll be a flying car."
1:24:51
And he and he specifically said the demo will be shocking.
1:24:56
Like, the demo will be amazing.
1:24:57
And so I was trying to debate with Jordy and Tyler this morning, what what will the demo be?
1:25:03
Like what will it actually be?
1:25:05
Like I don't think anyone assumes that you will just be able to at the demo hop in the Roadster and be like take me from LA to San Francisco and it just flies you there.
1:25:14
Like that seems unbelievable even as a demo.
1:25:17
But what will the demo be?
1:25:19
And there's been a couple different examples of this.
1:25:22
Did we ever find the video of the the jumping Chinese car?
1:25:26
This is such a crazy video. Jumping >> Oh, yeah. Let's pull it up. >> Chinese car. Yeah, this one.
1:25:31
The BYD Yang Wang U9, the supercar that jumps obstacles. There's a video here.
1:25:38
Let me try and put this in the timeline.
1:25:41
Um, let's see if I can send this in.
1:25:44
So, um, so there's there's that and then what was the other one?
1:25:48
The Maybach GL GLS bounces, right?
1:25:52
There's this bouncing mode. There's a >> GLS 600. >> GLS600.
1:25:58
>> And that's technically to help you get out of sand, I think. >> Of course. Of course. Yeah.
1:26:00
That's that that's what it's not just for the influencers to like flex on each other >> when you're doing a little fundraising. >> Yeah.
1:26:08
>> Out out in the Middle East and you get stuck in some sand in your Maybach. >> Yeah.
1:26:13
And there's and there's also the the Mercedes G Wagon, the electric G wagon, the G650 with EQ technology, I believe it's called, something like that.
1:26:22
Uh, and it does a tank turn.
1:26:24
And so the the the Let's watch this. Yeah. Look.
1:26:26
Okay, so that is technically a flying car.
1:26:28
All four wheels off the off the ground.
1:26:32
>> I would call this the minimum viable flying car.
1:26:36
And so I'm expecting the Tesla Roadster to be able to do something slightly above this, right?
1:26:43
But the question is like how much above this?
1:26:45
Like will there be a rocket engine on there?
1:26:47
Will there be fans on there?
1:26:47
I was kicking around the idea that they would put a fan on it somehow.
1:26:52
Maybe it would pop out a bunch of fans and the fans could suction the car to the road so it could go from 0 to 60 faster.
1:27:01
Maybe you could reverse those fans and actually hover the car a little bit or or elevate the car.
1:27:06
But I want I want a firm prediction from you, Jordy, on what you think the what what the amazing flying car Tesla demo might be.
1:27:13
Like what do you think it actually might be?
1:27:18
Because because it he's going to demo something and it's going to and and it's probably not going to be uh just a car that flies you from San Francisco to to New York, right?
1:27:26
Like that would be truly like mindblowing.
1:27:31
I love uh I love your theory.
1:27:31
I think it'd be very cool if the fans could could create some amount of thrust. Yeah.
1:27:39
>> But uh I find it hard to believe >> Yeah.
1:27:41
>> that uh it would actually be able to lift one of these cars.
1:27:43
They're very very very heavy because of the battery.
1:27:47
So I'm going with something closer to uh the ability to do something like the this jump like we're seeing with this U9. >> Okay.
1:27:55
So, uh, I have a little bit of, uh, I had I had GPT5 like kind of crunch some of the physics numbers on this.
1:28:00
So, suction fans with good skirts could plausibly improve a plaid's uh, like a plaid Tesla uh, like a Tesla Model S Plaid uh, 0 to 60.
1:28:13
If it was if it was going to do 2.
1:28:16
4 seconds 0 to 60, it could go down to 1. 6 or 1. 8 seconds.
1:28:18
So the pressure needed is only a few kilopascal pascals over a 3 to 5 meter area.
1:28:26
Um and so so it's so it's it's potentially possible that you could use fans to create more downforce and fans I believe were actually banned from F1 u because there was a moment where creating artificial downforce with fans was and I think there are some supercars that have fans that create more downforce and suction the car to the ground so you get more traction.
1:28:49
Um so that is that is a feature that could be there.
1:28:53
The question is, if you reverse the fans for lift, uh you need a lot more rotor area and near megawatt power to hover a two-tonon sedan, even if you could supply it, the battery would give only a few minutes before thermal or energy limits intervene.
1:29:08
And so I feel like when we're talking about demo, there's a world where the demo is like, yeah, it uses half the battery and it's just a party trick, but it does lift the car off the ground for two feet or something like that.
1:29:22
Tyler, what do you think?
1:29:23
Do you have any firm claims on like what what the flying car demo might actually be?
1:29:29
>> Yeah, I mean I I don't see like actual wings coming out.
1:29:32
That seems like overly ambitious. >> Yeah.
1:29:36
>> Um I have a little faith >> because there is a world where it's like the Roadster event is actually just like a straight up like it's just a helicopter.
1:29:43
Like they just launch a helicopter and then it's like Yeah, it flies.
1:29:46
It's a flying car, but it's mostly a helicopter. >> Yeah.
1:29:50
My my idea was um some kind of glider or parachute comes out >> and then so you can kind of drive off a cliff and then you kind of glide.
1:29:59
[laughter] >> I like the gliding idea.
1:29:59
Uh that would be extremely high like you know when you see a ramp on the road and then you hit it and then you kind of glide down. 2.
1:30:04
6 says I don't think we're getting flying cars.
1:30:08
I personally love being stuck in traffic.
1:30:09
Uh there is an incentive for Elon to get people stuck in traffic.
1:30:14
They're more likely to become best friends with Grock.
1:30:16
[laughter] And so the more time they're in traffic, the more time they're talking with Grock. >> Okay. Okay.
1:30:22
>> There's somewhat of a flywheel there. >> Yeah. Um I don't know.
1:30:23
Anyway, we we I want to react to this uh this what if the f what if the love what if the loved ones we've lost could be part of our future.
1:30:34
Uh this >> I've never actually seen a more hated line >> was sort of controversial. Let's dig into it.
1:30:40
Let me first let me tell you about Adio.
1:30:41
Customer relationship magic.
1:30:44
Adio is the AI native CRM that builds, scales, and grows your company to the next level.
1:30:47
Um, and so, uh, Hip City Regge, who's been on the show. >> Yeah.
1:30:52
Let's play the video first.
1:30:53
>> Let's play the video first and then we'll go into the reactions.
1:30:55
>> Baby Charlie, [music] >> see. Oh, that's wonderful. >> Kicking like crazy.
1:31:02
>> He's [music] listening.
1:31:02
Put your hand on your tummy and hum to him. You used to love that. >> Too wide. dancing in there. [laughter] >> Oh, honey.
1:31:16
>> Mom, would you tell Charlie that [music] bedtime story you always used to tell me?
1:31:19
>> Once upon a time, there was a baby unicorn who didn't know he knew how to fly.
1:31:25
This baby unicorn was like your mom because she didn't know that she knew how to fly, [music] but she knew how to do all kinds of fabulous things. >> Hi, Grandma. >> Hey, Charlie. How was school today?
1:31:37
>> Pretty good roto there.
1:31:38
>> I mean, it's crazy shot in basketball.
1:31:40
>> I don't really care that much [music] about basketball. What about the crush?
1:31:44
>> I like that this uh >> this video presumes that we'll have see-through phones, too.
1:31:51
>> Like, maybe we should build that first.
1:31:53
That seems like a really profitable business.
1:31:55
If you can create a see-through phone >> and him, you loved that.
1:32:03
>> You would have loved [music] this moment. >> You can call anytime.
1:32:10
I mean, it does feel like it's I mean, it's shot maybe by the people that did Black Panther.
1:32:15
>> It literally seems like they hired the same team.
1:32:18
>> Wait, so is she alive in the real world? Oh, no.
1:32:20
They're scanning her before. Oh, that's crazy. >> I am.
1:32:24
I'm [music] absolutely I'm your mother after all. >> I mean, funny start.
1:32:32
>> They're thinking, "Okay, the retention on this product, you got to you got to get it.
1:32:35
You got to get it before your loved ones pass away.
1:32:37
You got to be harvesting the training data and then at any point in the future if you churn they they delete your loved ones forever.
1:32:46
>> Did did this guy pivot?
1:32:46
His banner says the climate reality project.
1:32:52
>> I think Caleum Worthy is a former Disney star. >> Oh, interesting. >> Canadian actor.
1:32:58
He's known for his roles as Dez Wade on the Disney Channel series Austin and Alley.
1:33:06
Well, then he might have access.
1:33:06
Oh, he's he's he's he's worked with Netflix, so he might be connected to the Black Mirror folks.
1:33:12
>> Reggie James says, "Digital necromancy to capitalize on the grief of the vulnerable. Straight to jail. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200." >> Okay.
1:33:23
So, uh, do you want this? Would you ever use this?
1:33:29
I think I'm not in the market.
1:33:29
I don't think this is for me.
1:33:34
I think I think this would would have >> I feel like I know AI like I I would just I would know that this is that this is AI generated and so it wouldn't it wouldn't like fool me.
1:33:45
I need to I I would think I need >> AB says they delete the S3 bucket if you don't make the payment. It's super dark.
1:33:54
I I think this is one of those things that would actually have quite a lot of demand. >> Mhm.
1:33:59
>> Because a lot of people are are just going to process this and say I I'm really fearful of my loved ones passing. >> I disagree. I don't know.
1:34:05
I I I think this >> I just think you you also find it hard to believe how many people are best friends. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:34:12
I I do I do find it hard to believe >> and there are millions of them. >> Good question.
1:34:16
So you think that you think this is >> and it's tough because I I mean I miss my grandparents.
1:34:22
want my I I wish that my grandparents were around to spend more time with my kids.
1:34:29
>> There's stories they've told me.
1:34:29
There's songs they've sang.
1:34:34
>> There's all these incredible moments that >> I will never relive and I wish I could experience those moments. >> Yeah.
1:34:42
>> That being said, am I going to be a customer of this? No.
1:34:47
>> Feel incredibly dark, but I think there will be a surprising amount of demand for this.
1:34:50
There's been a there's been a a couple there there was a there was a YC company that was uh something much I think uh more heartwarming than this which was uh it was a service that you'd purchase and then they would email or or do like a phone call with your parents essentially to collect information about them and and put it together into kind of like the life story and it would just tell that for you. But it was all real.
1:35:17
It was just like like you might not have the time to go and record every like a podcast with your parents, but if they help the company would just help facilitate it basically. >> Uh I don't know.
1:35:26
Do you think uh OpenAI would launch a competitor to this?
1:35:32
>> I don't know if they want another PR crisis. >> Yeah. I don't know.
1:35:35
I mean, if this gets big, it would not be much of a PR crisis to launch a competitor. Yeah.
1:35:40
Like >> I think if if it's established, if it's successful, they'll launch a version of it. >> Yeah.
1:35:48
>> Um well, let me tell you about public.
1:35:49
com investing for those that take it seriously.
1:35:51
We got multiasset investing industry leading yields and they're trusted by millions.
1:35:54
We have Ev Randall in the studio, the newest >> tearing up the >> newest general partner at Benchmark.
1:36:05
>> Thanks so much for coming by. >> Thanks for having me. What's happening show?
1:36:08
Oh, you Oh, you picked you selected the Matina, the podcast in a can.
1:36:12
That is Andrew Huberman's work.
1:36:12
Uh, we're big fans of it here. >> He's on a tear.
1:36:17
Uh, and you're and you've been on a tear.
1:36:19
Uh, introduce yourself again.
1:36:21
Uh, what's the latest news?
1:36:23
How do you describe yourself these days, >> gentlemen?
1:36:26
Um, great to see you both.
1:36:28
Um, first time in the Ultra Dome.
1:36:28
Uh, it's as incredible as I imagined it to be. >> Thank you.
1:36:32
>> Um, so yeah, I'm Ev Randall.
1:36:32
I'm the newest partner or the newest general partner. >> General partner.
1:36:35
Don't forget that first part.
1:36:37
[laughter] >> Don't underell yourself. Congratulations.
1:36:40
>> G the big G benchmark. >> Yes.
1:36:43
>> How did it come together?
1:36:46
>> It was um it was really it was it was a pretty unique recruitment process.
1:36:48
It was one that was uh initiated actually by Chaan and we actually he just reached out to grab dinner um a few months back >> and a lot of it was was just pure vibes and relationship building.
1:37:03
>> This is a tip for GPS at other firms.
1:37:05
Don't let your partners get dinner with anyone at other firms because they're out of there.
1:37:10
[laughter] >> So, it's, you know, dinner. >> Yeah. Had dinner.
1:37:12
Um, and you know, like investors will do this often times with each other.
1:37:17
It's like, you know, you're all you're all looking at similar things, looking at similar spaces, doing a bunch of research. >> Fremies. >> Frenemies. Yeah.
1:37:22
It's like you're you're all in this competition, but you're also, you know, you can you can be of immense value to each other.
1:37:27
We're all marketing each other's.
1:37:30
>> And he said he said, "It's been quiet on the timeline for benchmark.
1:37:31
We'd love to bring someone to the team that could uh that could be a little bit more controversial. Spice things up.
1:37:36
No, no, but what what did he actually say about like the problems that he wanted to solve that you could bring >> and and more so what was like the pitch the hard >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:37:46
I think I I think that the the pitch because it wasn't really like hey we need to we need to solve all these problems but it was just I I think like a pitch around alignment uh about what the partners at Benchmark really like doing.
1:37:56
and he was like, "Hey, like we are a group of people that really love to get involved with very very few companies every year.
1:38:04
each one of the general partners there invests in one to two investments per year um and gets really really involved and tends to get involved relatively early in the company's >> life cycle and and and like break that down a little bit deeper because you could be like I could have a VC that's
1:38:20
like oh yeah uh you're the only investment I made this year but I call them and they're like sorry I'm on 45 backtoback like pitch [laughter] calls because I got to find that one really good one versus someone who's like no I'm actually like in the office regularly yeah I take other pitches. So,
1:38:33
So, like is there a material difference in the day-to-day actually spending time with companies or is it really just highly selective and then you're still doing like a ton of outbound and inbound and just hearing pitches constantly and it's more we're more just saying like the cream of the crop is like the picking what's going on. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:38:51
I I think the the rate limiter and the bottleneck is definitely the picking.
1:38:54
Like you're still meeting tons and tons of people.
1:38:56
You can still learn even if you're not investing in a company or you don't partner with the company.
1:39:00
There's so much that you can learn from every single founder, every single company that is building something.
1:39:05
And so even though we only partner with a few, we're still meeting a ton.
1:39:08
We're meeting a ton of co-investors.
1:39:09
We're meeting a ton of founders.
1:39:10
We're meeting a ton of awesome operators.
1:39:13
>> Um so so still immense amount of relationship building and networking.
1:39:15
Uh we just end up only partnering with with a few of them. >> Yeah.
1:39:20
How are you feeling about uh entering a new role, new firm for you at this moment in the market?
1:39:26
It feels like where that there's a lot of froth.
1:39:31
A lot of people have already made their bets on the different foundation labs.
1:39:34
Uh where do you see opportunity to kind of like make your mark with the new team? >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:39:42
It's um really really interesting because it's a like almost like life cycle of a market >> like selection like like on the timeline of like like there there was a lot of great investors that just ended up starting their check writing career in 2021. >> Yes.
1:39:59
>> And they did a lot of investments in 2021 because it was a relatively uh frothy period in the market.
1:40:05
>> Uh and to no fault of their own really a lot of them ended up having like a pretty rough initial track record.
1:40:09
pretty rough initial track record. So it's always something that you're thinking about is like what part of the market cycle am I joining this firmman and and what am I you know writing checks into because if you started in 2023 that was an amazing time to write checks everything was was you know whether you're at the growth stage or the early stage um there was a lot of
1:40:26
like the companies that are now these like stalwart AI leaders starting and picking up steam but then you also had a bunch of growth stage companies that were relatively cheap on on like a multiple basis and so 2023 was an amazing time 2021 was an awful time to start uh I think that The scary thing a little bit is that like I don't think any of us know or have any idea if this is 2021 20 it's definitely not 2023. Uh
1:40:44
Uh feels a little bit like 2021.
1:40:47
Um but I think you know if you ask somebody if it's is it 97 is it 99? Is it 2001? Um no one really knows.
1:40:55
And so I think you have to be you have to keep that we got another decade to go. It's 91.
1:41:00
[laughter] No one's afraid to say it. Everyone's like it's 98.
1:41:02
It's not the bubble popped the 91 last week. >> Yeah it did. And now we're back.
1:41:08
Actually, this morning at the open, it popped. And now we're back. It's over. It's over.
1:41:12
>> Well, I was at dinner with somebody um the other day and they said something that I thought was really smart, which was that they're like the the the main reason I'm scared right now is that the only time that I've seen everything work >> was also in 2021.
1:41:25
Like the issue about 2021 wasn't that people were doing >> big investments into companies that were bad.
1:41:33
>> The the issue was that everything was absolutely ripping.
1:41:35
Like >> and was that just because of the pull forward in e-commerce due to the shift in like you know like I remember Paler looked amazing. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:41:46
>> Or if you think like think about I mean obviously depends on the category but think about like ecom like e-commerce enablement or commerce enablement there's like a whole crop of startups that came up and it just so it turns out that when we're all locked into our houses >> everyone's just Yes. Yes. Yes.
1:41:57
and just like, oh, you just >> not to mention as the capital starts flowing and then it flows into one company and then that company goes and buys a bunch of software and they're probably using like even a recruiting platform looks like, hey, this could be a billion dollar business because every company's like we need to hire as many people as possible.
1:42:12
So, it's like >> it's very recursive.
1:42:14
Yeah, >> very kind of like >> we're getting big words early.
1:42:18
>> we're getting big words early. big big words early, you know, it's it's all interwoven and like obviously you're you're starting to see that a little bit with like the AI trade this year and there was like I I did this presentation um a couple months ago for for this
1:42:30
group of of of CIOS um chief in uh chief uh information officers at large companies and I was um doing some research on macro and I was like oh my god of the top 20 year-to- date return stocks in the S&P 500 so of the S&P 500 of the 500 companies which 20 have had the best year to date returns. 18 of
1:42:48
18 of them were related to the AI trade.
1:42:50
Like it wasn't, you know, and not just like, you know, Micron and Nvidia, but like G Vernova and like Bloom Energy and like all of these things about like the supply chain of AI.
1:42:59
And that scared me cuz I was like, "Oh my god, like the >> US economy, like the pensions of our parents are writing on the AI trade and are basically writing on uh you know each Yeah.
1:43:12
one one superhuman man that is uh you know, signing up all these all these all these huge deals."
1:43:17
So I think in 2021 you definitely saw that where yeah you had all these massive impacts from from zer from co from people being inside from companies go digitizing and buying a bunch of software.
1:43:27
So even things that at first principles were kind of like mediocre companies they looked unbelievable and so it was hard to blame anyone for investing in these companies cuz >> until then tech had been so secular like it was not a cyclical market like the march the march to cloud wasn't like this like up and down thingy.
1:43:41
It was like each year the incremental share of cloud relative to like onrem was like nice and steady. Yeah.
1:43:47
>> And so you're when you're trained that you're investing in a secular market that always kind of linearly goes up, you're trained to invest on like on good numbers because they usually continue.
1:43:57
Um and 2021 was the first time where you really saw the cyclicality.
1:43:59
And I think some people think that the AI trade could also be cyclical given the um actual infrastructure built out that sometimes is, you know, built out via debt and leverage and all these things that could end up blowing up.
1:44:11
that could end up blowing up. when you look at what's going on in the public markets, uh is it fair to say that like the first year of the AI trade and and the boom of those 20 stocks that you mentioned was driven by basically earning surprises like Nvidia just being like oh wow every hyperscaler bought so many more like the the cash flow is going up the actual business is growing
1:44:33
and now we are shifting into more of like the LOI economy the the forward contracts and so that's been a little bit more of what's moved the market and and maybe that's why Oracle has kind of traded up so much but then roundt tripped because people have said oh that's amazing but actually we're going to discount that a lot more than we did on the day that the deal was announced. >> Yeah. Another another framing that that >> Yeah.
1:44:53
Another another framing that that I would use actually is like usually in these cycles um it starts with like the core. >> Sure.
1:45:00
>> And then you start just layering on derivatives. Okay. >> From that core.
1:45:02
And so it's like okay a AI demand is you know maybe two orders of magnitude higher than we thought. Yeah.
1:45:08
>> So who is the first order benefactor of that?
1:45:10
that? Y Nvidia like who's you know the GPUs and then as as the the cycle continues to play out it's like okay well like what's the first derivative of that it's like well okay like what goes into these data centers turns out like these turbines that G Vernova creates and like oh now they need to buy all these you know all these like specialized things from Broadcom and
1:45:28
then like now Micron and so there ends up being that and then like there's like this cascading of these derivatives until like the nth one is like the shitcoin market and like the memecoin market and so now it's like oh wow how like these like three quantum, you know, computing companies that have zero revenue combined for $75 billion of market cap and you're like, "Wait, wait, wait, wait a minute." And that's that's
1:45:47
And that's that's when I think everyone kind of pauses and they're like, "Wait, wait, hold on."
1:45:51
>> And then and then I think it goes even further like he he he locked in.
1:45:54
Speaking of SC, I think that like there are people that are trading the quantum stocks because of the AI boom because like they have been told that that the next thing after AI or the next big unlock for the AI revolution will be quantum.
1:46:08
Meanwhile, like like >> Yeah.
1:46:11
And it was a bunch of skepticism like no GTC.
1:46:13
I remember I was watching the stream and and uh they had Brad reading off the the teleprompter and he was talking about you know the opportunity in with quantum and AI.
1:46:23
So this is a narrative that that Nvidia as a company has >> certain been a little bit back and forth. >> Okay.
1:46:31
But as a company as a company that was a part of their narrative for GTC. >> Yeah.
1:46:35
it's sort of like furthest out on the risk curve and that's why you know if we see you know Nvidia selling off by like a couple percent every week uh the quantum stocks I I see charts where it's like down 20%.
1:46:46
>> Yeah it's they're like levered trades on the core all these derivatives and so it's like you know people are like oh Nvidia is not going up you know 10% a day now what could and then you go to like the derivative and it's like well this isn't going up so much per day now well what could next and you keep going and now you see I think over the last month like so many of these stocks are down 45%.
1:47:01
Yeah, I don't think Nvidia's down, but so many of these other stocks are down 40 to 50% over the last month because they're kind of the canaries in the coal mine are like the leading kind of derivative that is almost like a lever trade on the core.
1:47:13
>> And we've had we've it it's been an incredibly rough week in the markets and now everyone is sitting saying please deliver Jensen.
1:47:21
Now I have I have some confidence.
1:47:24
So, it's it's uh Wednesday.
1:47:26
>> Uh they they have earnings after the close and >> uh I feel pretty good about it because of the you know Jensen, you know, smashing beers on video, right?
1:47:35
You don't do that a month out from earnings.
1:47:40
If you're feeling really good, you belong in a pod shop.
1:47:42
That's that's like some that's a deep cut.
1:47:44
That's some deep analysis.
1:47:47
>> Jordy loves this type of analysis.
1:47:47
The vibe the vibe >> I don't care about the numbers. >> Yeah.
1:47:50
No, I [laughter] I have no idea what they're promising, but But trading on vibes that's the move. >> Yeah.
1:47:56
And then the other I mean the other factor here is like just the the challenge of of this market as you have within the same two you know effectively two week period where coreweave gets rated by semi analysis as this sort of like only platinum tier neocloud >> the best product in the category.
1:48:17
>> Uh and and they're down 30% in the last 5 days. Right. Um 30% less.
1:48:25
>> Uh and now people are saying, "Yeah, may maybe Nvidia ends up uh ends up, you know, having to, you know, buy them.
1:48:29
It would certainly would would not go uh well, uh if they were to >> What's the least AI company you've done as a deal in the last couple years?" >> Gosh.
1:48:40
Uh >> because everything has some I mean, even Anderal Industries, you know, it was like AI and now there's obviously an AI narrative there in some ways, but it's like definitely just a hard tech company.
1:48:52
[snorts] Yeah, it's hard.
1:48:52
It's It's funny because like sometimes um as an investor, you're almost trying to like do some portfolio construction >> and you're like, man, it'd be really nice if I had something that was uncorrelated with the AI trade [laughter] because if it all goes down, you know, 80% or whatever, then like I'm going to need something.
1:49:07
I mean, it's so different in in private markets because especially if you're investing at the early stages, like none of this stuff matters.
1:49:13
Like when like by the time the companies exit, you have no idea what the what the stock market's going to look like.
1:49:18
You have no idea what the macro is going to look like.
1:49:19
And so like thinking about this type of type of stuff is usually like you really should like if you're zooming out and thinking on like a 10ear time horizon should you still be ultra long AI? Of course you should.
1:49:30
>> And so it's almost you kind of like pump fake yourself into being like maybe I should do like an anti-AII play or something.
1:49:35
>> Um I think I think there's like some parts of cyber security that actually are still not I mean a lot of a lot of like you know a lot of like data security is like oh well like you know you need to secure your data into to secure your AI.
1:49:45
So like a lot of even cyber has moved into AI but there's still some pockets of cyber security that are AI related.
1:49:51
>> Do do you think there are durable learnings from the Palunteer story of being sort of like the forward deployed engineer almost being consulting building custom software.
1:49:59
It feels like with AI there's a lot of folks who are sort of doing that and it seems really exciting because you can go and get a Fortune 500 client, you can go ramp revenue really quickly.
1:50:10
revenue really quickly. you there's there's all this question about like well does this is this going to look like high margin SAS in 10 years um but we already ran that experiment with with uh Palunteer and regardless of what you think of the the the price to earnings multiple like you can tell that the margins are good and the revenues are real and so like it clearly worked out
1:50:28
and uh and like if if you were investing in that and you know even if you were at like a I don't know 40 multiple like you'd still be doing very well based on the early investments and so uh I'm wondering if you think that that model if something permanently has changed in the way sa SAS is delivered into the enterprise or you think that people might be overfitting on that? >> No, I I think it I think it absolutely
1:50:46
>> No, I I think it I think it absolutely has and the way that I talk about this I call it the legibility gap. >> Okay.
1:50:52
>> And what I mean by that is like >> you know if you get a Gmail account >> it does not take very long for you to like understand how to use Gmail.
1:50:59
Like anyone can kind of like pop on even if you're a boomer and like like I've used an email account before like this is just sort of like a slice of an email account.
1:51:06
Yeah, >> I think the issue about AI is that not only are the capabilities so new for the broad population that could use them, they also evolve so quickly.
1:51:14
Like if you think about, you know, not having Chat GPT 3 years ago and now everything that we can do or especially on some of the media models, how we had like Will Smith like >> the the grotesque version of that initial video and now we have like absolutely perfect Will Smith eating, you know, spaghetti and meatballs.
1:51:30
um just the the rate of evolution.
1:51:32
Like I I so I I'm I'm from like a rural town in in Colorado and a lot of my friends um work still in my hometown and they're like, "Hey, like my job >> to the Heartland." >> That's right.
1:51:42
Shout out shout out Windsor Colorado.
1:51:46
>> Nick over there went to Colorado.
1:51:47
[laughter] Well, I guess he's gone, but he's a Colorado guy, too. >> Oh, amazing. Yeah.
1:51:50
>> Oh, amazing. Yeah. the uh but but like they they'll come to me and they'll say look like my job now is like I put any work task I get you know they're doing some you know random you know they're an accountant or they're doing some administrative role for for the company they're like my job now is 90% of any
1:52:04
work I get I feed it through cloud chat GPT or whatever tool that I'm using on the AI side I turn it into my boss and then I go golf because my boss like still doesn't know how to use any of these things so they like so the business owners have no idea how to use these tools they barely even know they exist >> to like the associate yet. >> Literally, it's [laughter] like I I call
1:52:21
>> Literally, it's [laughter] like I I call >> to the golf courses. >> Yeah.
1:52:24
I I call it like synthetic UBI because it's like, you know, cuz it's like they they like there's just this insane legibility gap where so many businesses still have no idea.
1:52:33
>> Imagine if these tools were available during the co era, like the remote work. Oh my god.
1:52:38
>> Was like, yeah, >> people could have 20 jobs instead of the five that they were running with co.
1:52:41
But >> yeah, so I think the whole FD like the thing that the FDE position solves is the legibility gap.
1:52:48
when you're like, "Hey, we know that there can be a ton of value produced here.
1:52:52
We just don't really know how and we don't even really we can't even put our arms around the evolving capabilities because like maybe you implement, you know, one of these AI tools and in six months it's like a brand new tool because you know, cognition rebuilt >> uh rebuilt Devon off of four five sonnet.
1:53:08
Um, and it's like, well, if if like the the product is evolving that much every 6 months, you probably need someone in a post sales capacity to continue to educate the customer, especially if they don't live in Silicon Valley. Totally.
1:53:20
You know, like tracking every single new model release and they're in some random place and barely even use Chat GBD or something like that.
1:53:26
>> Yeah, it makes a lot of sense.
1:53:26
How are you thinking about uh your focus in terms of stage?
1:53:30
I mean, Bond, Founders Fund, I I I've thought of you as a growth guy for a long time.
1:53:33
Are you moving earlier stage?
1:53:35
How is Benchmark thinking about growth versus early stage?
1:53:40
Are those just like antiquated terms?
1:53:42
Because you can do a growth.
1:53:44
>> Was this part of Was this all part of the plan to end up at benchmark where you get you go you go and learn the methodologies and the approaches of everyone how they work and then you go compete with them on every deal. >> Exact. Yeah. >> In the final job. The final job.
1:53:55
It's like >> how they've [laughter] done it. Now I'm doing it my way.
1:53:58
No, I mean I it's certainly being able to see up close a lot of the greats and how they how they do the job and and the frameworks they use has undeniably been so important for my career and my development as an investor.
1:54:10
I think like what it what it came down to and something that I learned over my entire career slowly like again I started in PE and so like the idea of venture was so foreign when I was shadow capitalism uh like the the idea of venture was so foreign when I was first coming into the industry that I really like growth was like felt safe.
1:54:29
it felt like what I was good at.
1:54:29
And I've just learned over the the however long I've been in the industry that um like where I felt the most fulfillment, where I felt the most joy is actually the investments and the relationships I've built someone like a Sean Henry or even like a Parker and Matt at Ripling where it's like you get in even at the early series B.
1:54:46
early series B. I think there's this like line where like if you can get in and build a relationship and be on the board with a founder when they're still figuring everything out when it's still like the primordial soup phase of a company, there's just all this like
1:54:59
there's a deep relationship and all this context that you build both with a founder with a team and like the underlying organization that you're working with that just like like if you get in later, you just like can't go back in time and get that same amount of relationship building and context in the series G. You can't use Wii. You can't use Wii.
1:55:18
[laughter] You're involved. >> No, I still would.
1:55:19
I still would, but you know, it doesn't feel good in the Wii. >> Ripling.
1:55:23
Uh, bringing up rippling reminded me.
1:55:25
So, you were we were talking about this forward deployed model >> and every startup >> that's doing anything in the enterprise feels like they've adopted this, right?
1:55:34
And it's like part of their pitch.
1:55:34
Uh, customers obviously like it.
1:55:37
If like you'll put somebody in my office and build software that's specific to me, that sounds great.
1:55:44
Uh, but I feel like during when when Parker released the I think it was the series A memo for Rippling about this concept for a compound startup. >> Yeah.
1:55:55
>> Uh, what's what's the postmortem on because it felt like every startup started saying we're doing a compound compound startup.
1:56:00
We're going to build three basically three products at once at the same time. Yeah.
1:56:04
And it and it's worked very well for Ripling.
1:56:06
Uh but I I it's hard for me to think of any other startups that like adopted the approach that worked for Rippling which like the context there was they worked >> basically for my to my knowledge like they worked in silence for years >> and then they came out >> and also Parker had built like seven of those products literally before and so he was like okay I kind of know what the way I want that product to look.
1:56:28
He's not doing as much zero to one discovery in each of those like someone who starts the point solution might. >> Yeah.
1:56:34
>> Yeah. I mean I I think the rippling story and like where I think where a compound startup can really really work um is is like one yeah there's there's this fat build in the beginning where you need to build all this platform architecture because the whole idea is like you need to build some form of
1:56:47
platform architecture that's going to make building each point solution that you end up bundling faster like if it's just going to take the same amount of time that it would any other startup to build each product then there's kind of no synergy for building the compound startup like they all need to interact and be built on the same platform. I
1:57:00
I think the other key learning from Ripling is that a lot of the products that they were that that they've built and that they sell are not like I don't want to like say commodity in like a negative like they don't matter way, but they're just not these like really it's not Figma, you know, like it's not like a designer that's like I'm not going to use like off-brand Figma.
1:57:20
I have to use Figma like it's my lifeblood. It's my everything.
1:57:24
when you have like an application, you know, an applicant tracking system or like a time and attendance thing or like employee reviews that there's so much value in in the integration of data with like employee reviews being integrated into your HR suite rather than just having like the nicest UI or having the product that feels the best.
1:57:41
And so like the value of having a bundled suite in a compound startup is really powerful when the actual products don't have to be the complete bleeding edge best of breed.
1:57:52
They can be like very good, but they don't have to look the absolute nicest.
1:57:55
They don't have to have that last 10% of like of like complete um fine-tune effort.
1:58:00
And the the buyer and the user actually still gets a ton of value actually from the integration of all those products together.
1:58:05
And the like sum of the parts is a lot more valuable than if each product in its individuality felt a little nicer to use or something but wasn't integrated tightly into a single product. >> Yeah.
1:58:16
I was always wondering if someone was going to run the compound startup playbook in in >> fintech.
1:58:20
M uh it's called Revolute.
1:58:25
>> I was going to say it's called Rip. I mean RIP isn't >> No.
1:58:27
So So sorry I so I meant I meant consumer in the sense that like uh you know uh Robin Hood has crypto and has different uh has different financial products where you can like build a whole company on Coinbase and and uh manage payments with Coinbase.
1:58:42
There's a whole bunch of different functionality there.
1:58:45
But uh there aren't that many companies that I've seen that have come out to market with wi with one uh on day one.
1:58:53
Uh you can trade stocks, invest crypto, get a mortgage, get a car loan. This is a credit card. There's points.
1:59:00
It's like it's been a little bit more focused on the consumer fintech side in America.
1:59:04
At least from my perspective, there's been payment money transfer services that have gone gone really big.
1:59:11
There's, you know, a consumer credit card like there's that Built Reward, isn't that company that does like cash pay?
1:59:16
And it's like and and maybe one day that grows into they'll also do mortgages and then they'll also do uh stock trading and investing and IAS and all that different stuff.
1:59:25
But it just feels like probably because of the regulatory it's a little bit different.
1:59:30
But no one's really >> It's also a challenge because like eventually people are going to tie a lot of their like financial life to the in like the firm that gives them a mortgage, right? Yeah.
1:59:41
So not being able these companies starting out, they don't have their own balance sheet, right?
1:59:46
They're neo banks, so they're kind of like operating on top of other banks.
1:59:49
But >> it's just like there are startups that have done like new mortgage like where wasn't there better better mortgages, right?
1:59:55
um I think that went public at one point um has done quite well and uh and and so like if that business has been has was was buildable as a startup and then also you have a credit card startup like you you would think that you could build both at the same time.
2:00:11
Maybe it's just too distracting. I don't know.
2:00:12
Well, that honestly you should um highly highly suggest listening to Nick at Revolute Talk, okay?
2:00:17
at Revolute Talk, okay? Because he he basically set up his organization somewhat similar to Ripling and like he set up all these like product pods >> and they had an initial wedge which was basically this like um uh FX product
2:00:29
traveling around Europe like you know young people were were going around Europe and you could do very easy FX and that was kind of like the wedge for their first cohorts but they really really quickly >> focused on just how do we go as many products if they're high quality as possible. Um, and now they have uh tons
2:00:40
Um, and now they have uh tons of consumer products and B2B products and like they're all doing a ton of revenue.
2:00:46
Like it's kind of an unbelievable story. >> Yeah.
2:00:48
Uh, what's >> earlier this week you kicked the platform VC Hornets Nest comments.
2:00:55
>> To be clear, you said that Andre Horitz is a zero, [laughter] right? That's what you said. It's it's a zero.
2:00:58
It's just I'm not even going to be for another clip.
2:01:03
[laughter] >> I've learned my question was uh did you did you kick the hornets nest to inspire yourself to grind harder?
2:01:08
cuz I feel like [laughter] I feel like there's immense pressure now to deliver a 5x net.
2:01:13
>> Oh yeah, it's fun because eventually who knows maybe the performance >> if he comes back at 4.
2:01:18
9 Mark Andre's personally going to be like dunking on you.
2:01:23
>> He Yeah, he's going to fund the OPSEC that that uncovers our returns.
2:01:28
>> He's going to pay newcomer to come. >> No, no.
2:01:30
I I think that the whole thing from this week I I think the the biggest lesson or or like it it shown to light for me just like the the purpose of the algorithm. Yeah.
2:01:38
Like the algorithm exists to kind of like the algorithm needs like the algorithm is the beast. Oh yeah.
2:01:44
And the beast needs controversy. Oh yeah.
2:01:45
And it was so funny because the first day that the interview came out um like all this happened on the second and third day.
2:01:49
So like the first first day the interview comes out >> um you know all the all my friends at all these firms are like oh it was great.
2:01:54
I thought it was like pretty nuanced and like moderate takes and like you know it's good.
2:01:57
You were kind of pitching the benchmark strategy is unique.
2:01:59
And then the second day comes out and it's of course like these clips with like these very, you know, kind of leading tweets and things and then it's like then it's like, you know, knives out and >> you got government officials coming after you.
2:02:10
[laughter] >> The government >> I know.
2:02:13
I wanted to like check if my passport still works and like I hope so my passport still works. No.
2:02:16
So like I and like again like I I think if you look at any of the individual clips or anything um like sure you you could take things from them that I think were more incendiary or like more uh more controversial than the actual context of the conversation.
2:02:28
Um, I don't like, you know, context. Yeah.
2:02:30
But you, but but you've also you've you've been commenting on different fund strategies for years, playing different games.
2:02:37
Your essay, your bombshell essay about uh the crossover funds, right? Uh, Tiger, CO2.
2:02:46
Um, what what is your what is your like what predictions did you actually make in that piece and then how did they play out?
2:02:52
because I feel like a lot of the firms that you identified as running these strategies are still around doing those strategies and it seems like they've done very well and so like people might have read your original piece as a as like a critique but in fact it was just the you're just shining a spotlight on a new strategy that exists and runs. Is that right? >> Yeah.
2:03:10
And and on like if it so the original piece is called playing different games.
2:03:13
Check it out on Substacks.
2:03:14
Um, but the the the actual point of the original piece and probably what I got wrong about the original piece more specifically was I zeroed in on Tiger as the example.
2:03:21
And I and I actually was like, "Oh, I'm bullish on Tiger because I think this is a good strategy."
2:03:26
So I I actually said like, "Hey, this is a great strategy and it's going to continue."
2:03:29
Um, and the strategy being like, "Hey, there there's like venture returns historically, if you look like since 2000, at least of the great funds have been awesome." Yeah.
2:03:39
like every great fund that has raised like and by the way the only way that you raise really large funds is if you earned the right by having amazing returns.
2:03:46
So all of these brands have had really really amazing returns and the simple math was that you could >> put a lot more money out the door especially as we had the emergence of these companies that show like increasing returns to scale.
2:03:56
This is the whole kind of idea behind the mag 7 is that in technology when you have network effects like you do in consumer social or economies of scale like you see with Amazon, you just kind of keep winning at a greater and greater scale assuming that your TAM is big enough.
2:04:10
Um, and so the whole point of the the the essay was like, hey, wow, like you can even if you reduce your implied returns a fair amount on on your forward returns, if you just put more money out of the door, there's just so much more like absolute dollars to be had for for all of these firms.
2:04:26
So I think like in the four years since that piece came out in 2021.
2:04:27
I think that has been the prevailing trend in venture.
2:04:31
I mean very clearly I don't think it's you that's a very consensus thing to say that a lot of these firms have realized that like wow there's so and like I think that's actually the beautiful part about our asset class now is the menu of options and the menu of ways that you can practice the craft of venture growth y >> and be extremely successful and partner with really good founders and make money for your LPs is extremely broad. Yeah.
2:04:52
And it's only gotten broader because a lot of these leading firms have really expanded and increased their capital velocity or like dollars out the door per year. >> Yeah.
2:05:01
Um, it feels like there's a lot of venture capital that might actually be more like private equity or it it it feels like we're we're sort of is there is there a factor where we're just taking an asset class that has existed for a long time investing in a company that has 10 billion in revenue uh and we're calling that venture now.
2:05:21
Is it are we just renaming it or is it somehow structurally different?
2:05:24
I'm just looking at like if if you're investing in OpenAI right now uh is that even a venture investment?
2:05:30
Yeah, I I mean like I this is always like even if you look at playing different games, I always say like venture growth.
2:05:35
I do venture growth because like you know I think most people would call it growth or like not just call it venture capital itself.
2:05:39
I think the structural change that we have seen and a lot of people actually have gripes with this.
2:05:44
I I like you can you can be on one position of this or another but I think there there is some validity to the the idea that that some people complain about which is if you look at what's happened what like where the structural change has happened is that companies just like don't IPO >> maybe ever anymore uh but they certainly IPO way way way later in their life cycle than they used to.
2:06:03
cycle than they used to. And so the complaint that some people have is like this is essentially stealing returns that people were able to get in the public markets because if you're IPOing only when you reach a $200 billion
2:06:14
valuation instead of a $10 billion valuation which used to be the norm you know 10 years ago or even you know 15 years ago or whatever it was um that's a 20x that like the public market investors don't get that is now fully in the hands of private market. >> Shopify is a great example. I think they
2:06:27
>> Shopify is a great example.
2:06:27
I think they went out at like four four billion or something like tiny >> for sure.
2:06:31
It's like that, you know.
2:06:33
>> One question I have is like, do you think that the partner at a platform VC that's like a non-founder partner maybe maybe early mid30s?
2:06:42
Do you think that's the most dangerous job and venture?
2:06:46
Because I feel like there's this pressure to deploy and build a track record yet at the same time like you're on the chopping block >> if if you deploy and a bunch of bad bets and we see a correction and there needs to be like somebody needs to get fired for it. Yeah.
2:07:00
Like in some ways it feels like a benchmark earlier stage you're somewhat insulated from the kind of downstream chaos where you can make a bet it can get marked up a lot but even if it trades down during a correction you're still up yeah massively on your winners. >> Yeah.
2:07:15
I mean like to be fair like I don't think it's unique to to platform firms at all.
2:07:19
Like if I don't make great investments I'm also screwed.
2:07:21
Like you know like at the end of the day you you need to build a really good portfolio and like no one is spared the results of like not investing in great companies.
2:07:27
like not investing in great companies. I think I think like where that becomes somewhat true and again everything is so dependent on the firm and every firm's culture is so different um that that's actually one of the things that I think people don't understand really about venture growth is like every firm the
2:07:42
way they do things the variance is way higher than I think maybe any other asset class where like the work and the cult like how you do things is is relatively similar but I think where where that can happen in a platform firm is where just like the supply and demand of of like things you're able to be the point person on is is uh is like negatively inclined towards you. What I
2:08:01
What I mean by that is like there's like I don't know maybe a hundred good companies that exists at at like whatever stage um uh like each maybe stage there's like you know maybe 50 great early companies 50 great growth stage companies.
2:08:12
stage companies. if you have uh you know 20 partners uh you know the math is just like okay like if you're 50 if you have like 20 growth or let's say 25 growth partners since I'm bad at math uh and you have 50 good growth companies that means there's like good two good companies per partner and maybe like the senior senior partners get like 10
2:08:28
instead of two and so there there's just this there's this reality where it's like there's some efficiency frontier where you're trying to um be able to be the relationship builder uh and the point person and the board member for really great companies um but when you have a ton of people within an organization, it just becomes mathematically harder to um to to just have like shots on goal enough. You're
2:08:48
You're not gonna win every single deal either.
2:08:51
And so it's like, okay, how many am I covering um and how many um can I win?
2:08:56
Like that just starts to diminish.
2:08:56
It's also it's not a perfect framework because again like >> it's also not like a solo, it's not golf. It's not a solo sport. Like it is a team sport.
2:09:03
And so I think a lot of these places that have good cultures, um they're more focused on like okay, how do we win as a team?
2:09:08
we multiple people can work a company, multiple people can be on the board or one person is a board observer or whatever.
2:09:14
So, it's not necessarily mutually exclus ex exclusive, but I do think some people at those firms do feel those impacts for sure. >> Are you AGI pilled? >> Uh, wow.
2:09:25
>> What's your what's your [laughter] like how have you processed that question?
2:09:28
How have you engaged with the the discourse around uh everything from >> uh just how powerful the models will be in 1, five, 20 years? >> Yeah.
2:09:42
>> Uh what that means for your investing thesis um versus even just like the fast takeoff AI doom.
2:09:47
Has that stuff ever rattled you?
2:09:49
Have you always just been I'll wait until it shows up in a spreadsheet. I don't know.
2:09:53
[laughter] like you seem like a pretty even keeled like quantitative person who's not getting lost at some EA rationalist party and going off into sci-fi land.
2:10:04
>> Yeah, I I mean I am definitely of the belief well one I think AGI has become like a near useless term.
2:10:08
I mean it's almost like agents at this point like both of these things are so nebulous that and like the product marketing around them has been so brutal that like they've just lost all their meaning.
2:10:18
Um, so I think actually when people >> quickly agents didn't exist as a marketing term two years ago >> and now it's already played out that just shows you the you know the cycle of these things in 2025.
2:10:28
But I think that like so like AGI like when you say like what you just said I think is actually probably referring to like ASI like artificial super intelligence.
2:10:36
Um like I think that the bottleneck and the rate limiter for AGI which is like artificial general intelligence which maybe you could define as like when do we have um you know an AI that can do what like a reasonable adult can do in any given situation is fully dependent on how quickly we can distill the technology through the economy. >> Yeah.
2:10:56
>> And I think like and this is like Tyler Cowan talks about this.
2:10:59
>> It's actually more about the inference and the pre-training.
2:11:01
>> Well not even about inference and pre-training.
2:11:02
It's literally just like about this the FDE actually someone to use it. >> Yeah.
2:11:09
Like deploying it into the economy like like it just takes a really long time and no matter how fast these growth curves are there.
2:11:16
>> It's notable that uh that you you gave the example of somebody, you know, at a let's say like some company where they're doing their job with Claude uh but their boss doesn't know that because they just want to be able to do their job quickly and go golf.
2:11:28
And then that person gets presented with a better solution.
2:11:32
They get a pitch on, hey, we can actually like replace your whole team.
2:11:36
and they're thinking like, >> well, there's a chance I could maybe golf more.
2:11:39
There's also a chance that I could lose my job.
2:11:41
And so, I think there's going to be this interesting tension where the people that are associate, he uses so many M dashes. He's amazing.
2:11:48
[laughter] >> He's also getting really good at golf randomly.
2:11:51
Like, every time I go out, every time I go out with him on the week, it seems like he's been practicing a ton.
2:11:56
Uh, no, no, no, that makes a ton of sense.
2:11:59
Um what what what about the uh the just the stakes uh geopolitically because uh there's been this critique of benchmark of like oh maybe you guys are a little bit more open to investing in companies that are indexed to China somehow. This is not new.
2:12:12
Excel has investments in China.
2:12:14
There's a whole bunch of different stuff. Uh it can go both ways.
2:12:18
Uh do you think that but but it it feels very predicated on if you think AI is a super like nuclear weapons level technology then it's harder to rationalize.
2:12:28
If you think it's more like an Excel sheet and autocomplete, maybe there's a little bit more of a deal to be done even with a nearper competitor. >> Yeah.
2:12:35
Like the fine line I' I'd place on that is that like we we certainly like like I think all of us um certainly within Benark, but I think everyone in in the industry wants Western AI to win. >> Sure.
2:12:47
>> And we do think it's a bit of a race and we want nothing more than western and US AI to win.
2:12:51
Um that does not mean that uh Chinese citizens or people that were born in China or people that at some point in their lives have been in China um cannot contribute to and be a huge factor in building western AI.
2:13:02
If you look at the there's you know that that tweet um that had like the poach list for the Meta ASI team. >> Oh yeah.
2:13:10
>> It was like 15 of the 20 were Chinese citizens or at some or were born in China or whatever it was but there there was incredible kind of Chinese representation on the Meta team.
2:13:17
Um, and so again, like the the investments we've made have been in companies that are in Singapore or in the United States.
2:13:24
And just like if there's people that were born in China or Chinese citizens working on AI that they want to build and help the world in a western context with our values and our value system um, and distribute it globally, not within not just within China or whatever and not even building in China, then we of course we want to support those teams.
2:13:45
And I think there's an immense amount of AI talent in China and would behoove us um to have them building for Western allies for the United States and making sure that we win the AI race rather than scaring them off and pushing them to only work for China and for the CCP. >> Yeah, makes sense.
2:14:02
Uh are you thinking has has your has your thinking on opensource AI updated at all?
2:14:06
Um I've kind of gone back and forth.
2:14:10
kind of gone back and forth. John Ludig uh friend of ours has written about this saying that you know the scale of the of the effort and the capital intensivity to really have ser significant progress on the model side uh means that uh open
2:14:26
source AI might struggle at the same time uh a few weeks ago we saw Brian Chesy say that Airbnb has been using open source models and seeing a lot of great results there and so there's obviously different use cases for each but uh how are you thinking the market will play out. How are you thinking of
2:14:39
How are you thinking of how do you how do you make money as a for-profit company in open source?
2:14:43
Are we looking to Red Hat as an example, GitLab?
2:14:48
Like what do you like in that category if you like it at all? >> Yeah.
2:14:51
No, it's it's a great question.
2:14:51
I think there's there's like two angles that I would take for this one on frontier capabilities versus like where open source is let's say for like general models.
2:14:58
Um, I use something that I call the mom test, which I refer to my mom.
2:15:03
And I always joke that like there hasn't been a query on chat GPT that my mom has made that like GPT like 3. 5 couldn't handle.
2:15:09
So I think there's like an increasing amount of queries and there's an increasing amount of need for this from the moms.
2:15:15
>> From the mom, not moms in general in the chat.
2:15:19
There's some moms that are watching right now.
2:15:21
This is the most controversial thing you've said.
2:15:23
you've said. I'll I'll show uh you you can take shots grow funds community >> mom will say actually actually I'm puppeteering 25 clawed code instances right now to run this family and you better show some respect the rand the randle mom test uh and I
2:15:39
think there's like an increasing amount of queries as frontier intelligence continues to get pushed there's just an increasing amount of queries an increasing amount of inference that you just don't need the frontier capabilities for anymore >> some of this stuff you can even cache
2:15:49
like because like if I had asked for like just give me the highle history of benchmark arc like it could just that you don't need 51 you don't need five you don't it's like yeah you could do a Google search so so there's so there's there's that piece which I think that
2:16:03
like increasing amount of the like there's always going to be >> places that are important >> in businesses too because there are certain things where it's like we just need to scan every transaction for fraud and we're not actually doing a deep research report on it. just saying,
2:16:15
just saying, "Hey, does this have like bad words in it?"
2:16:19
And for a large language model, you can just use a 3. 5 level model.
2:16:23
>> And then and then actually in other in other modalities besides like code or I mean co code, there's actually some great open source models now, but like in generative media especially, the open source ecosystem is extremely vibrant.
2:16:34
There's a ton of amazing open source models and I think the open source models probably have way way more um tokens and like token volume than closed source models.
2:16:42
And the way that you actually make money on this, there's an amazing company called FAL.
2:16:45
That is a uh generative media. Yeah, give it up.
2:16:51
[laughter] We're sponsored by them.
2:16:52
>> Are you sponsored by FAL? >> Yeah, we did.
2:16:54
>> Shout out B and Gorham Legend, Batwan, all the guys there.
2:16:57
But they uh but they're an inference cloud for generative media.
2:17:00
And so they're like a distribution mechanism for open source model providers to get video um develop like generative media developers to use models.
2:17:07
And then for the developers, it's like the onestop shop.
2:17:09
you get like a single place where you can drag and drop anytime a new model comes out.
2:17:12
And so it's almost like, you know, like this destination point that they then monetize via providing the inference for the models.
2:17:19
And so I think like when you have all this open source, there's still a ton of money to be made via inference and via kind of like reselling GPUs, if you want to call it that.
2:17:27
Um, and all the stuff that you can provide in terms of like inference optimization on top of that.
2:17:32
Um, even if you're not just providing like a LM output via an API like you would with a closed source model. >> Yeah.
2:17:37
How how are the portfolio companies that you work with uh how do they think about competing with OpenAI?
2:17:44
I think the question of like what if OpenAI does this uh is coming up a lot.
2:17:49
Uh we've you know seen we had Mikey from Sunno on they've they've grown tremendously.
2:17:53
There's been talks that OpenAI will get into music generation.
2:17:58
So that's kind of a conversation.
2:17:58
I don't feel I don't I don't think Sununo will be very threatened by that.
2:18:02
Um, and generally it feels like OpenAI is already at the scale like and and and is operating like Google does where they're going to launch a lot of products that don't work and that's kind of okay and so if they copy you it doesn't mean you're dead.
2:18:16
Uh but but it's a real threat.
2:18:19
Uh how are you h what are those conversations like and how how do you think the CEOs view that as a competitive threat?
2:18:26
>> Yeah, I I think it's like it's I think it's incredible for these startups to have like this bar.
2:18:31
It's almost like having it's like the lockin bar.
2:18:35
>> And it's like if you're not gonna like if you're not going to like exceed the lockin bar, which is like whatever the labs can produce when you're probably not even their their number one priority, then like maybe you should pack it up and like and and just like and call it a day because >> like like if like that's the like that's that's the bar like you need to exceed it.
2:18:54
And so I think um I don't like people had this concern about so many different companies like people had this concern about 11 Labs at one point when like OpenAI was coming out with all the these voice products and people were like oh my god what does this mean for 11 Labs and now they're like they're doing they're accelerating they're they're doing better than they ever have before.
2:19:10
I think we really missed like the taste element.
2:19:12
When we were talking to Miy from 11 Labs, we noticed that uh even though Midjourney has been on a very different path, there's something about what David how David Holes runs that company at Midjourney.
2:19:22
The way he thinks about training the model that it just looks >> it doesn't it's not that it looks like there's no benchmark.
2:19:29
It doesn't necessarily look better.
2:19:30
It just looks more like David Holes's vision for what good looks like.
2:19:33
And it's like I feel like when I see midjourney Image, no matter who prompted it, I'm seeing the art of David Holes. Yeah.
2:19:40
And I feel like there's something about that and the texture of the voices from 11 Labs and the flavor of text that comes out of of of Open AI.
2:19:47
And there's a little bit of like the people talk about this with like the flavor of code from Claude, for example.
2:19:54
Um, and and the vibes can come out of the organization in a way that it's hard to just say, okay, we have good vibes in images.
2:20:01
Let's copy paste that all over the place.
2:20:03
that all over the place. Yeah, it's just the culture doesn't necessarily shift >> 100% and I think most of the times that I've heard a pitch from somebody around like well like this this you know this part of the like this model or like this
2:20:13
modality is rapidly commoditizing >> if a founder and a team is able to build a high taste product >> in a market that's big enough where you can have ACVs and like prices that are high enough per customer >> to like build and be able to distribute the product. All those companies are
2:20:27
All those companies are doing tremendously well.
2:20:29
There's not been a single company, I think, that like died because of the labs.
2:20:31
It's because you didn't build a high taste product that could be distributed to a wide audience.
2:20:37
>> So, it feels like we're probably not in the like the the the era of like getting steamrolled by AWS was like, well, yeah, I want my I want my hard drives right next to my CPUs. Yeah.
2:20:46
And and I don't know that people are right now saying like, I need my voice model right next to my, you know, uh, agent model.
2:20:55
They're like, "No, actually, I'm okay with a little bit of latency because the whole thing is slow.
2:20:58
Basically, it's all it's all, you know, a couple seconds lag, sometimes 10 minutes of lag, and so maybe uh there's not so much."
2:21:04
Uh, I want to talk about uh the NeoClouds and these interesting deals that are going on.
2:21:10
Uh because Benchmark, where you're at in terms of the scale of the firm, feels not necessarily set up to do some sort of uh company that's going to wind up being super capital intensive, but then at the same time, they did fireworks.
2:21:24
you've done fireworks and then also >> founder gave the most one of the most iconic lines of this month.
2:21:27
He said a lot of companies out there are going to be scaling into bankruptcy. >> Yeah.
2:21:32
[laughter] Uh but then also like the private equity background bond.
2:21:35
I feel like you're you're maybe better equipped to understand how private credit will interface with a founder.
2:21:42
You're somebody that would make sense to have on the board potentially.
2:21:45
Um but how are you thinking about these new companies that where it's not just R&D spend?
2:21:50
not just burn for salaries.
2:21:53
There's something else going on in the almost financial engineering of building and winning a category. >> Yeah, 100%.
2:22:00
Yeah, I think like our role at Benchmark and we've done investments like we've obviously invested very very early in fireworks.
2:22:06
We have some robotics investments that we're incredibly excited about that will be very capital intensive.
2:22:11
I think one of the pitches that we can give to founders is there there's like there's nothing more scarce than a benchmark a in today's market and therefore there's no higher signal and there's >> we have we we have another sponsor uh numeral who who on their website they had benchmark series A and every time we did the ad readm series A [laughter] >> every time.
2:22:33
So, you know, you know the mantra, but the uh so so like part of our value prop in our job is like downstream capital >> should not be >> more cheap >> for anyone else than someone that has partnered with us.
2:22:45
And I do think we put an immense amount of effort in into helping companies understand and helping downstream investors understand the business equation of these more complex companies.
2:22:56
like a company that did this extremely well actually in the public markets, a firm when it went public, um, a lot of the sellside analysts that were covering a firm I think just didn't really know how to like handle the company and didn't really know how to like model out the actual business equation of the company. Yeah.
2:23:10
So, they actually did like an I think it was called the financial modeling day >> and they like walked through like a 30 slide deck that you can actually still find on their investor relations site of like this is our business equation.
2:23:20
like this is our business equation. this is what we optimize around and this is how we grow and produce value for shareholders and it was just like extremely clear, extremely legible and I think it really helped the investor community and the analyst community like better understand the business and that's like one ideally the founders also have some sense of their business
2:23:36
equation because they're they're building their businesses but it's also something that hopefully that that myself or any of the other of of the partners here can also help both sharpen the thinking of the founders but especially the downstream investors that want to know that there's a strong business equation that they're investing behind >> uh Emil Michael was was getting into it with you earlier this week. Feels like
2:23:54
Feels like the the TK era has sort of continued.
2:24:00
>> Two different government officials coming through. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's crazy. Yeah.
2:24:01
You really >> So the the whole TK was wait obviously you know 10 years apologize for it. >> No.
2:24:09
Can you take full responsibility? >> No.
2:24:10
That's not what I'm saying.
2:24:10
I wanted to understand like you know when that comes up when you're when you're in process with founders like what is what is the like what what are those conversations like from your side and how how is the firm approaching kind of those concerns from founders about actions that the firm took a decade ago. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
2:24:28
>> Yeah. I I I mean amazing question and I think um our response every single time whether or not it comes up and I think it it I mean it's week four so I actually don't know how rarely it comes up but it's rarely come up so far in my my time at benchmark
2:24:40
>> is talk to the founders we work with today or that any of the partners within the firm have worked with >> and see like what like benchmark like I am 25% of benchmark >> Jason is 25% Eric is 25% Peter is 25% >> benchmark is not some corporation that has like rules rules and bylaws. Like
2:24:57
Like the firm is us >> and so talk to as many founders as you want of people that we have worked with and see if our references are better than any other investors.
2:25:09
>> And our bet is that and and one one that has proved to be true I think more often uh way more often than not is that you will not find a better reference firm from the founders that we work with as individuals.
2:25:20
Um so again benchmark >> I was you know I think I was in >> high school or maybe I was in college [laughter] you know like dancing to to young like what was uh >> I was doing private equity deals and get hammered on the weekend.
2:25:33
>> Yeah, I was doing I was doing like a private equity case study during during that.
2:25:36
So I'm like I literally I can't speak the No, but I think I think I think being able to like focus it in and be like the firm is the four of us. >> Yeah.
2:25:45
>> And so go as deep as you want on any of >> our track record. Yeah.
2:25:48
And I I know there was the song the college anthem. That was great. [laughter] Yeah. Yeah.
2:25:57
Uh- what about uh you know, you're you've been on a on a meteoric rise uh principal, then partner, now general partner.
2:26:06
What do you think it takes to get to general uh to steward?
2:26:10
>> Oh, to to senior to senior steward. >> Senior steward.
2:26:12
You think it's in the cards for you?
2:26:14
>> I actually did have a I if you were at Sequoia as senior steward next year, [laughter] I am going to blow. It's going to be insane. I would put it.
2:26:21
How how does does Gurley still play a stewardesque role?
2:26:27
>> How how involved I'm assuming a bunch of his money is still >> Yeah. >> in in in the funds. >> Yeah.
2:26:32
A few a few things on this one.
2:26:33
There like there is I think this is a common misnomer just because some people like Bill obviously extremely famous for his blog.
2:26:40
He was he's very like outward facing >> podcast too.
2:26:42
I mean he really sailed off in the in the sunset.
2:26:44
He had some great takes on BG2.
2:26:46
Um but there is like there is no sense of stewardship.
2:26:50
There's no that does not exist in the slightest.
2:26:54
there is no senior partner and like and like there's there's nothing like that both in the actual economics obviously but actually just in like the culture and the way that we do business like it is completely um like there there is no sense of that and I think that's a common misnomer because some people are a little bit more public or like
2:27:11
outwardly facing or more famous um that is not how the firm operates but it's true that like the retired partners um that are no longer active GPS play an unbelievably active role in a lot of our active investments now in in a lot of the capital for the funds comes from both the current GPS and the previous GP. So they feel extremely bought into
2:27:28
So they feel extremely bought into the continued success of Benchmark.
2:27:30
They also just like it was such a huge part of their identities for so long that you you know it's like I yeah I now regularly talk with Bill with Matt Kohler with all these people that um were Florida Gator. >> Yeah.
2:27:43
Are you brushing up on the sports? >> Bill's Florida Gator. >> Yeah.
2:27:47
Well [laughter] state school pride between myself.
2:27:49
>> Still working on that impression. >> That's great. That's great.
2:27:51
>> Um but yeah, so they're they're super involved.
2:27:53
Um they help us with companies that we're looking at with companies that we already work with and I think that's a really unique part of the partnership. >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:27:59
Uh what what's his uh what have you learned from Bill Gurley?
2:28:02
Have you learned anything yet? Has he updated anything?
2:28:05
Have have you obviously you go from Bond Mary Mer one way of thinking about the world to founders fund PT wildly different way thinking about the world but you probably take lessons from both I imagine.
2:28:17
Have you learned anything from Bill either in the last four weeks?
2:28:21
I know it hasn't been that long, but uh even just from reading his work and listening to him. >> Yeah.
2:28:27
I feel like Bill was the first venture capitalist I ever learned anything from because when I was like interviewing >> to get into the business, I was always reading above the crowd. >> Sure.
2:28:34
>> I was always reading his blog.
2:28:34
He had such pragmatic instructive blog posts like all revenue is not created equal.
2:28:40
He had all these great things about network effects and marketplaces and like when you're looking for buzzwords to say in an interview and you're like 22 and you have no idea what you're talking about, they were an absolute gold mine.
2:28:48
Um, and so I felt like I I've been learning from him for >> Let's give it up for buzzwords. >> Shout out buzzwords.
2:28:54
>> They're a fantastic [applause] way to advance your career.
2:28:57
>> Um, uh, useful buzzwords.
2:28:57
I'm not saying that as a draw for me thing is so real.
2:29:01
We we go to YC demo day and they they've had to like reinstate like, okay, what's contracted ARR versus ARR?
2:29:08
What's how how fuzzy is this?
2:29:11
There was something on the timeline earlier this week.
2:29:12
timeline earlier this week. Someone was saying that they went to go interview at a company that said that you know the real revenue was like one6th of what the founders had said and that that's uh you know in frothy market those uh the the temptation to lie gets even further or embellish right
2:29:28
>> so I I think like the biggest learning I think that people can take from Bill is like he just keeps it real like it doesn't matter what the market is doesn't matter if it's up market down market like he cares about the real like he cares about like what is the like what is the business quality when you actually dig in it's not about, you know, eyeballs. It's not about vanity
2:29:43
It's not about vanity metrics.
2:29:45
It's like what does this business look like and what is it going to look like over the next 10 years?
2:29:47
And it's not like he hasn't taken immense amount of risks, like he invested in a bunch of marketplaces before they had flipped network effects, but um he just knows how to like drill down and kind of figure out what is fluff and fake versus what's real. >> Yeah.
2:30:00
>> How are you guys thinking about consumer social?
2:30:01
I feel like as long as I've been uh in and around the venture world, when there's a hot series A consumer company benchmark is is at least on it, paying attention, it just feels and then and then I can say personally I've I've experienced immense pain investing in consumer social.
2:30:23
Well, it doesn't matter if a company has a million users.
2:30:26
They can go from 0 to a million users in in 48 hours and you can invest right there and then it'll be right off the week the next week.
2:30:34
[laughter] Uh so it's extremely painful.
2:30:36
But I'm curious about how the partnership is thinking about it today.
2:30:38
Is it is it uh obviously you guys are a generalist fund, but is it still is there anybody specifically on the partnership that >> like cares a lot about backing the next breakout consumer, you know, uh consumer software company? >> Yeah. No, 100%.
2:30:54
And I again it's it's such a deep part of the firm's history that I think all of us are itching um itching for >> it's the highest status like like uh winner, right?
2:31:04
Because it's like you know if you back >> Snapchat and then and then and then you have a half a billion users out there that are like yeah use and love Snapchat every day.
2:31:14
It just hits harder than backing like even uh the next data bricks because people are probably >> a cultural like a cultural touch in a trophy. Yeah.
2:31:23
Um I I think so so the I think the toughest thing about consumer social why it's been really really hard is that back in the day um when consumer social was starting it was actually about consumer social like social networking was actually social networking.
2:31:36
Every single social networking platform has turned into an algorithmic short form video platform >> because that is the most addictive >> yep >> form factor of of content that someone can consume.
2:31:48
And eventually you you just have this profit motive that means that you optimize for the amount of time spent on an app per user per day.
2:31:55
>> And so there like they just crowd out like the currency of these companies.
2:32:00
One is obviously users, but then the amount of time spent um interacting with the product or interfacing with the product typically.
2:32:05
And when you have these >> um these like extremely addicting algorithmic um short form video platforms, you just kind of squeeze out the seconds in the day.
2:32:13
It's like so hard to like how could you get someone to spend 30 minutes a day on your app versus versus any others?
2:32:19
Like the challenge is just so much harder than it used to be when when people still weren't spending that much time on their phones and now we all spend all day on our phones.
2:32:26
So I think that the bar and the challenge is actually much much much higher but I do think that I mean one we we do have a new breakout which chat GPT which is unbelievable. So that's amazing.
2:32:35
>> Yeah, I'm talking about the next you know like the next year basically like who's really itching.
2:32:40
So, we we um uh obviously I'm not going to say the company because we just signed this, but we actually did just sign a consumer social series A.
2:32:46
And so, you can you can stay on the lookout for that >> for that. Get the gong for it.
2:32:50
I was I was looking for an excuse to do the gong. >> Yeah.
2:32:54
For the for the anonymous series A that we [applause] can't >> solid first hit. >> First hit. First of many. Uh >> thank you, sir.
2:33:03
>> Last last question I have. >> That was a big gong.
2:33:05
I >> little little pop quiz.
2:33:07
I'm not going to tell you who wrote this, but I want you to guess whether or not this was written with AI.
2:33:13
[laughter] >> This This is not just a partnership.
2:33:15
It is a living, breathing legacy.
2:33:19
>> This is Alfred Lyn this morning, right?
2:33:21
[laughter] >> Better than that.
2:33:25
>> The student of the game of the game.
2:33:26
>> Well, that doesn't answer the question whether it was written AI or not. We don't have it. Do you think it was?
2:33:32
I mean, I I think I think most people are at a at a at a at a point where they might uh let Chachi do like a run through at the end and it might have inserted this uh it's called contrastive parallelism.
2:33:42
It's not this, [clears throat] it's that.
2:33:43
Uh I'm not a fan of that particular construction, but it's something that Chach just kind of sneaks in everywhere. >> Um but who knows? It can be a tell.
2:33:50
Uh but uh yeah, if you you kind of you kind of got to rip some of the stuff out because if AI starts doing M dashes too much, even if you love using the Mdash, you just kind of lose it because otherwise people will be like AI. Totally.
2:34:06
>> Uh last thing predict last last uh question.
2:34:09
>> Uh do you think that uh it felt like this year just a flood of deals meant that there was less seasonality >> in venture? Right.
2:34:18
There was companies that were raising there's companies that have raised like three four rounds this year which meant that like they were raising during winter like winter kind of holiday time they were raising during >> I mean talent wars were during summer like Zuck was like having dinner with people in mid middle of summer opening I tried to take a week off and got but ton of people poached. >> Yeah.
2:34:39
But it feels like going into I I could see people taking a bit more of a breather this this uh this kind of like holiday season.
2:34:46
But I'm curious any any kind of predictions around that front.
2:34:49
>> I I I think we've moved to not having season like I think the seasonality thing at least for now is that anytime you're in a hot market.
2:34:54
Um you're just going to have people working around the clock because again it's almost like the the return to office thing.
2:34:59
If you're like a sales rep in like 2022, it's like how do you want to differentiate?
2:35:03
Well, if one guy's just doing Zoom meetings and you're willing to fly to the prospect's office, that's a huge edge.
2:35:10
So I think that's the issue now, especially in a hot market where things get marked up and and sequential rounds happen very quickly.
2:35:13
you just end up having like that that like you know Christmas is now the opportunity for someone to go preempt something. Yeah.
2:35:20
I do think that most of the good teams kind of realize that even if you can get a deal done December 24th also like it's probably just going to be better if it's done when everyone there is just like a level of energy that happens in the fall that happens in the spring that happens.
2:35:35
There's also a little bit of like if like there's like wow the VC uh you know gave me a call to try and close the deal like from the from the operating room when his first kid was born and I'm like yeah dude sounds kind of like a psycho.
2:35:48
I don't know if I work with that guy.
2:35:48
I think I'm good if you just like waited >> or the founders it's like yeah I raised my round while my wife was giving birth.
2:35:58
[laughter] >> I don't know if we actually want that.
2:36:00
that might just you can go a little bit too far and kind of turn people off.
2:36:02
But uh but that is fascinating.
2:36:04
Thank you so much for >> course guys. Thank you so much.
2:36:06
I want to give a shout out shout out to my wife Kayn.
2:36:09
Shout out to my six-month old Theo my Bernie S. >> Sixmonth old.
2:36:15
Imagine you guys imagine imagine being a Imagine being a baby and you and you come on come onto this earth >> and you're like wait my dad's a GP at Benchmark.
2:36:27
[laughter] I hit the jackpot. I hit the jackpot.
2:36:32
>> Papa is a GP at Benchmark.
2:36:34
>> You just spawned into Wealth Post Economic on day one. Let's go. [laughter] >> Let's go.
2:36:40
>> Let's bring in our next guest.
2:36:40
We have Adam Faze, CEO of Gymnasium.
2:36:41
While he's hopping on, [music] let me tell you about aidsleep. com. Get a pod five. How you doing? Welcome to the show.
2:36:51
I will also tell you about adquick. com.
2:36:54
Out ofome advertising made easy and measurable.
2:36:57
Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising.
2:36:58
Only ad quick combines technology out of home expertise and data to enable efficiency. >> Adam phase.
2:37:03
Uh Adam, >> let's settle this.
2:37:06
I've never asked you this cuz I was kind of always embarrassed to ask you this, but I already know where we're going. >> Yeah.
2:37:12
I just think for the audience. >> Yeah.
2:37:13
No, I think this is >> it is my real last name. They did try to sue me. >> No way.
2:37:18
>> The original name of gymnasium was Faze World. >> Okay.
2:37:20
>> And they do own the trademark for the word Faze. >> Okay. Wow.
2:37:23
>> So, we are >> What is the origin of the name?
2:37:24
Faze is such a cool last name.
2:37:27
>> Okay, so this is I've never actually really said the story before. My dad is from Iran.
2:37:29
Um, his real last name is Amir Faze and then when he moved to America, he changed his last name to FaZe.
2:37:35
So I was born with the last name Faze. >> Okay.
2:37:38
>> But it technically my middle name is Amir.
2:37:40
So it kind of still was Amir, but it's >> Oh, interesting.
2:37:42
There's words that Ellis Island uh [laughter] Yeah, but there's there's a there's a term for when that happens.
2:37:49
Like I believe I was probably a Mick Kugan at some point and they took off the Mick. They just simplified it. Fascinating.
2:37:54
Uh well, for those who don't know uh anything beyond this, uh can you introduce uh the company kind of how you how you position yourself? >> 100%.
2:38:03
I mean, I run a company called Gymnasium.
2:38:04
Um it is a short form unscripted studio that primarily lives on Tik Tok and Instagram.
2:38:08
So, we make shows that are these organic viral shows that would have been on TV 20 years ago, but instead live on these platforms.
2:38:17
>> Neotrad media, neotraditional media.
2:38:19
>> I really got to say, I think you guys are single-handedly bringing Hollywood back.
2:38:22
You know, this city has been tracking in the media department.
2:38:26
>> Have you ever lived in LA? >> Born and raised. >> Okay.
2:38:28
>> I lived in LA for 24 years.
2:38:28
So I moved to New York 4 years ago.
2:38:31
>> You went went to high school here.
2:38:33
>> I went to Loyola High School downtown. >> I went to Pol. >> No way. You grew up in that? I didn't know that. I grew up. Yeah. Yeah. Wow. >> Yeah.
2:38:37
Uh I played uh with some Loyola guys on with on the rugby team, the Cougars. I'm sure we could play.
2:38:42
Who you know who do you know?
2:38:43
But I went to Most of your most of your shows are in New York.
2:38:47
>> Um almost entirely New York based actually until recently.
2:38:49
So we just launched a new show this week called Girl Room.
2:38:52
um where we investigated the most disgusting girls bedrooms in LA. >> This is amazing.
2:38:59
>> That we could find and we ended up renovating them with >> You're just exposing. You're exposing.
2:39:03
You're >> I truly I can still smell some of the bedrooms that I was in.
2:39:06
Um but we're actually here shooting a different show this week in Boil Heights where I just came from. >> Okay.
2:39:11
So, walk me through what uh actually producing a show looks like.
2:39:13
Do do you hold the camera?
2:39:15
Did you Did you ever hold the camera?
2:39:17
100% used to almost always camera and did edit a few shows.
2:39:22
>> But now what does the team do?
2:39:23
>> Well, to kind of back up, I mean, I grew up in LA being obsessed with Hollywood.
2:39:26
All I ever wanted to do was make movies and TV shows and spent didn't go to college.
2:39:30
Spent about eight years working up the ladder in traditional Hollywood for like studios and production companies.
2:39:35
>> This industry is cooked >> and it basically I mean during co I >> all of a sudden we have a fly on the set.
2:39:42
[laughter] Um during co I just got deeply addicted to Tik Tok like so many other people and I honestly stopped watching TV and so there was a part of me that just felt like this feels like the future at the same time of working at a studio where like spending 5 years trying to make a movie that like Brentwood would love.
2:39:58
>> Um didn't really feel that culturally relevant.
2:40:00
So >> zoom out for me a little bit and show me the difference between why you're doing lives on TikTok and not those crazy like the quibby the new era quibby like the vertical.
2:40:11
It's vertical short form. Yes.
2:40:14
Uh there's a couple Chinese apps.
2:40:14
You know what I'm talking about. >> Real shorts.
2:40:16
Oh, you're talking about like the scripted short form.
2:40:17
Like is that where your stuff goes in 5 years or are you permanently >> The real goal of this was like let's just go where the people are. I was watching TikTok.
2:40:27
I was watching reals content.
2:40:28
And I'm like I want to make shows in the place where people actually are.
2:40:31
And so we've only ever produced things that are unscripted.
2:40:33
Um it really started 3 years ago now working with a guy named Kareem who hosts Subway Takes.
2:40:39
You ever seen that show now?
2:40:41
We did a show called Keep the Meter Running where he would like hail a taxi in New York and he would tell the driver, "Take me to your favorite place and keep the meter running while we spend the day with each other."
2:40:47
That show I held the camera on.
2:40:48
And so it would be me, a friend, and Kareem, and we'd actually just hail a cab in the street in New York and get in with them and spend the day with them.
2:40:56
>> Um, that show kind of changed everything for us because, you know, Kareem was someone I had my eye on him for a while of just someone who I thought was super talented and I wanted to hang out with more.
2:41:04
Um, and I asked him if he had any ideas for a Tik Tok show, and this was like the fifth idea he pitched.
2:41:08
And it was so obvious of like, I want to know where that taxi driver goes.
2:41:13
>> And so we spent 3 hours with this first taxi driver we ever shot with.
2:41:16
And I can remember thinking like, how the hell are we going to put this in a two-minute video clip?
2:41:21
We had never posted anything on TikTok ever before.
2:41:22
We spend a week that the episode is like perfect in our eyes.
2:41:27
We put on an account that has zero followers.
2:41:29
And as a result, we're like, we're not going to even check the views because it's a brand new account.
2:41:32
The next day, Kareem goes into his bodega across the street and someone taps him on the shoulder and is like, "I love your show.
2:41:41
When's the next episode coming out?"
2:41:42
He's like, "What do you my show?"
2:41:44
>> And he looks at his phone. It had 1. 2 million views.
2:41:47
>> And I think the cooler thing was of those 1.
2:41:48
2 million views, 99% were in New York City.
2:41:51
So, as he starting to walk around city that day, people started tapping him on the shoulder being like, "Hey, I love your show.
2:41:56
Hey, can I get a can I buy you a beer?
2:41:58
Can I take a photo with you?" How are they?
2:41:59
[snorts] >> Um, that show now has like 400 million views and has, I think, about 800,000 followers across Tik Tok and Instagram, and it's grown Kareem's own career into becoming like the the mayor of New York City. Totally.
2:42:11
>> So, I think from that point on, it was just clear of like, hey, this is a place where people actually want to watch serialized content, and what are the types of stories that we want to go make?
2:42:19
>> How do you think about monetizing something like that?
2:42:20
It feels so hard to stop and do a midroll ad.
2:42:22
And it also feels like if you're like, "Oh, I'll just do a separate promoted post."
2:42:27
Tik Tok's like, "We know what you're doing.
2:42:31
That one's going to get 10 views and then when you're back to normal programming, we'll give you a 10 million views because they know what's good and what's what's >> I mean, this is the problem with short form media in general."
2:42:39
The reality is these platforms do not have an incentive to pay you.
2:42:42
One, because they know the benefit that you get by being v viral on these platforms.
2:42:47
Um, but also like their excuse is like, "Hey, you're scrolling eight videos for every one ad you see.
2:42:53
How would we know how to pay that person?
2:42:55
>> It's like we you you know everything. You know the data. You're going to be fine. You figure it out.
2:42:59
>> You know, we figured this out on our show, Boy Room, which was like the early version of Girl Room, and it was, you know, really disgusting men's bedrooms.
2:43:06
>> Who has grosser bedrooms?
2:43:07
>> Um, so the difference we we really did find the difference here.
2:43:09
Guys have disgusting bedrooms. Girls are just hoarding.
2:43:13
They're hoarding so much that they refuse to get rid of.
2:43:16
So that's the big difference between the two shows.
2:43:19
But on that show, it was so viral so quickly.
2:43:22
The top comment on every episode was a girl saying, "I can fix him." >> Um, you can't.
2:43:26
The second comment was always, "You should fix their rooms."
2:43:30
And so, we started quickly getting in touch with Amazon and a bunch of other companies figuring out like how could we turn this into a renovation for them. >> Sure.
2:43:38
>> Ended up making an amazing partnership with Amazon.
2:43:39
We did an entire renovation season of the show, still on Tik Tok and Instagram.
2:43:43
And out of that partnership birthed this brand new show, Girl Room, which is actually co-owned by Amazon.
2:43:49
>> And also Amazon in that in that world doesn't feel forced at all.
2:43:51
It's like it's like very logical that you're making the show better.
2:43:55
You know, we would never be able to do a renovation show without the help of Amazon.
2:43:58
And so I think what's really cool here is like through this partnership with Amazon, I think what we've realized is like the views and attention that we get on these platforms organically is something that every Fortune 500 company desperately is trying to figure out.
2:44:10
And so what we really started doing is having this conversation with brands is like you're a media company whether you realize it or not.
2:44:17
And if you were to think of yourself as a TV channel, what are the types of shows that you would program on that channel?
2:44:21
And so we're starting to work with brands on creating original shows on these platforms that kind of live in the universe of their brand. >> Yeah.
2:44:28
>> Is there very little competition?
2:44:32
Because it feels like the legacy businesses that obviously competitive. Well, no.
2:44:36
So there's comp like the feeds are deeply competitive.
2:44:38
I'm saying like people that are trying to do this like highly produced unscripted content that's not just an iPhone, that's not an individual creator doing like a day in the life or doing that.
2:44:47
Like it feels like they're like it feels like they're because the traditional like unscripted TV >> uh businesses, they're so in this mindset of like, okay, I like create a concept and I pitch it and maybe I make a pilot or I'm an established, you know, studio and I can just like go and get the budget just off of belief alone.
2:45:07
they're still in this mindset of like, I need to sell this whole show to a network.
2:45:11
And I think that could create an environment where you're kind of in this lane with a model that's very disruptive being like, I'm not going to go to the network at all.
2:45:17
I'm just going to go straight to the feed and uh do and and be able to do turn out a super high volume of content, I'm sure, with like great margins, too.
2:45:26
Uh and just kind of like sidestep the whole industry.
2:45:31
>> I mean, there's a few things here.
2:45:31
One, I think what's been really cool is like New York has become like the capital of this new era of media.
2:45:37
I think, you know, LA was the center of influencer for so long.
2:45:40
Like never forget the Tik Tok houses in 2020.
2:45:42
Um, I think that slowly started shifting with like the Washington Park of Tik Tok content and all of a sudden now all these short form content studios started bubbling up. You're right.
2:45:53
>> You know, I think for those of us that have been in New York for a few years, there is a bit of an industry now where we all know each other.
2:45:56
We're all pretty close with each other.
2:45:58
Um, what I will say though is like on the flip side, I think especially like being in LA right now, this is an industry of people that still refuse to accept that like the internet has become television. Interesting.
2:46:09
And you have so many talented storytellers, an entire generation of storytellers who are out there trying to pitch their show to Netflix.
2:46:16
Um, instead of realizing like, hey, how can I go make this myself?
2:46:18
And I think the crazy thing is like we have so many examples of success now. Yeah.
2:46:24
>> And it's like imag like in what world would TVPN be this successful if you guys were on CNN? >> Yeah. Or or or starting there.
2:46:30
I mean it's weird because in Silicon Valley we like you would be so crazy if you were like I have an idea for a new technology.
2:46:39
Let me go try and pitch it to Amazon Web Services.
2:46:41
You'd be like no I I build the first version. I raise a little money. I build it. I build it.
2:46:46
And then eventually they come and try and buy me.
2:46:47
And that's like the DNA of Silicon Valley.
2:46:50
And yet, uh, Hollywood just is still in the process of like adapting to that of just like, yeah, just go do it yourself.
2:46:56
Like the cameras are available, you can make stuff with an eye.
2:46:59
>> And I think what's so hard is like we haven't had startup DNA in this city ever.
2:47:02
I mean, you know, we did it in 1920. >> Of course. Exactly.
2:47:06
[laughter] And that was the original moment.
2:47:07
But from that point on, we had a hundred year-long industry like this is how calcify calcify calcifi.
2:47:12
And I think as a result, we built an industry around the way that things worked.
2:47:15
And it's really hard to all of a sudden accept, hey, the rules could not be more different now and might never go back to that.
2:47:20
They will never go back to that in the first place.
2:47:23
>> So, I think what's cool though is like >> I really do believe that any talent we've ever worked with would have been a television star 20 years ago.
2:47:29
I think any show we made and and are continuing to make would have been a TV show 20 years ago.
2:47:35
Um, and I >> How much Yeah.
2:47:36
How much inspiration do you I I I think like when I think about TVPN, we've had maybe a hundred or so people like kind of launch like some like show that is inspired in some way by what we're doing even though what we're doing just looks like >> normal television uh and it's been around for 50 years.
2:47:57
>> Uh do you look back at some of these like old unscripted shows and be like, "Okay, we want to do a dating show in that format.
2:48:03
We want to do a home renovation show and that like we want to do a cooking like cooking.
2:48:07
I feel like I I've I've pitched we pitched like TVPN for cooking.
2:48:12
Somebody it wouldn't look anything like TVPN but it just be like a daily cooking show that kind of like has the aesthetics of like a legacy television show.
2:48:21
>> Uh but it's like built for the social platforms >> 100%.
2:48:24
I mean I think what I try to tell everyone is like >> Instagram, Tik Tok X, YouTube are television at this point.
2:48:30
And so the entire history of television is up for grabs to recreate on these platforms.
2:48:36
And so I think it's really interesting to think about like what are the shows that spoke to you when you were younger and figuring out like what is the newer version of making that today.
2:48:43
>> But I think the big difference is there is the format side which like boy room and girl room are formats.
2:48:47
But I think the real opportunity that exists here is like certain star creators out there have the ability to grow multiund million dollar businesses fueled by content.
2:48:57
And I think these are people that need programming help because they themselves are a TV channel at this point and they need operating help.
2:49:02
And I think that really is where we're going to see things start to go and it not just be a landscape where like Mr.
2:49:06
Beast is the only one that's figured this out. >> Yeah.
2:49:09
How how do you think about uh platform exclusivity, the aesthetics of the different platforms because uh I think from a from the outside a lot of people would assume that Instagram reels, YouTube shorts and Tik Tok are feature complete identical platforms.
2:49:25
It's vertical video and yet content that does well on one doesn't do well on the other.
2:49:30
But >> yeah, could we see a flip where Tik Tok says, "No, we want this as an exclusive show or Instagram."
2:49:35
Like, will that ever >> are they already basically doing that in the sense that some content will do better on on one platform than another just because the audience or the algorithm or the feature set there?
2:49:45
Um, but will it go farther to the point where you could build a whole show and it's every episode's going viral on Tik Tok and they're all flopping on Instagram for some weird unknown.
2:49:57
>> I mean, we've had that experience.
2:49:57
Like we have certain shows that have totally flopped on Tik Tok and Instagram and are the most viral thing we've ever made on YouTube.
2:50:02
And most often it's the other way around.
2:50:04
But I think it goes back to like what is the reason that someone is opening that app in the first place.
2:50:10
If I'm opening Instagram, it's to check my DMs.
2:50:12
It's check my notifications, maybe see something from a friend, and then I'll get stuck in reels and doom scroll for 3 hours.
2:50:17
Tik Tok, [laughter] I am going on basically to watch television.
2:50:21
In fact, I don't want to see what my friends are posting cuz I don't think they know how to make Tik Toks.
2:50:25
And I'm going on being like, "Hey, show me like what's the television feature?"
2:50:29
And so, as a result, like you're willing to watch longer content.
2:50:30
It's not about sending something to your group chat that's like a degenerate meme.
2:50:34
Um, and I think it really is the closest thing to like short form television.
2:50:38
YouTube Shorts, I think either you're 13 or 70.
2:50:43
I don't really know who else uses YouTube shorts in between that.
2:50:44
Um, but I think like, you know, this show is a really great example of that of like it does feel like this show was originally designed for X.
2:50:51
I would imagine that it quickly becomes a YouTube show though, just as it turns into more of a television.
2:50:59
television. Do you think there's uh do you think there's anything that we should extrapolate from uh the expansion of short form from it was 6 seconds on Vine and it was about 1 minute for a while now I think it's 3 minutes on most of the platforms
2:51:14
>> you can do up to 60 minutes on Tik Tok >> 60 minutes on Tik Tok is there are we going to see the meta of 30 minutes is the just the right amount of time because that's what that's where TV landed and that's kind of where YouTube landed right like Mr. be it used to be 8
2:51:25
landed right like Mr. be it used to be 8 minutes then it was 12 then it became 20 and then 20 plus ads is kind of 30 and you're in the 20 30 and then you see video essays go up to 40 and and you know >> I mean I look I think the one thing you have to remember with short from content is like part of the reason for it success is that like dopamine rush that it gives you and so like you are kind of addicted to this scroll and wanting to
2:51:47
be punched with like some new hit of energy so I think there is a limit >> edit to some extent >> totally but I think it's like there is a limit >> this is a modern blackjack dealer And at the end of the [laughter] day, at the
2:51:57
end of the day, I mean, anything that's a long form video, I'm watching as 2x on these platforms because like look, I might want to watch 8 minutes of a rug cleaning video on TikTok, but like going to watch it in 2x speed. Um, but I do
2:52:07
Um, but I do think >> you watch you watch 8 minute rug cleaning videos on Tik Tok sometimes at 4 in the morning, you get hooked.
2:52:15
>> The rug cleaning, they're already No, they're already I think on 4x.
2:52:19
>> They're on like 4x or 10x.
2:52:21
>> Get cleaner and cleaner the whole time.
2:52:23
Do you do you think uh Hold on. We got to stay on this.
2:52:25
Do you do you feel like you >> Let's check your screen time. Let's Let's check those.
2:52:30
>> No, I look I look in general, I will say I think there are like a lot of problems with short from content to begin with.
2:52:35
Like I don't think this is a good thing to be giving children and then expecting them to like enter the world in a normal state.
2:52:41
>> But at the same time like I would actually defend like uh like a Subway interview series as something that is a little bit more vegetables than this is my whole thing.
2:52:51
I think knowing that these platforms are the sole source of like information entertainment for an entire generation of kids, we have a moral responsibility to flood as much good as possible on these apps.
2:53:00
I think at the same time your room doesn't have to look like this. It really is.
2:53:06
>> By the way, I also think if you're you're just putting a smile on someone's face, you're making their day better, you know? >> It is funny.
2:53:10
There was a moment in time, maybe it was like 5 10 years, where people had this like righteous like uh they would make this sort of like righteous statement.
2:53:18
I don't watch television.
2:53:20
And then if [laughter] you actually piece together, it was like, I don't watch television, but I get entertained in these sort of like short bursts that collectively add up to four hours a day.
2:53:29
But I would never watch television.
2:53:31
>> I don't even own a TV.
2:53:31
[laughter] >> I just pay $2,000 for a new phone every 12 months >> cuz I'm hooked up.
2:53:37
>> But I do think that's the thing.
2:53:37
It's like it is time to start sounding the alarm bells a little bit of like what goes behind the scenes on these platforms because like I don't know if this is the best thing for young people to have >> from age. Yeah.
2:53:47
>> Do you think there's an opportunity to recreate some elements of Vice?
2:53:49
Like it feels like they >> they were making video content that in my view I feel like doesn't get made as much anymore.
2:54:01
>> It's by the way some of the best content still on YouTube to date.
2:54:02
And I and I think it's interesting like the views continue to go up like year after year.
2:54:08
Um I will say what I'm not as bullish on these days is a faceless media company.
2:54:14
I think Vice was sort of that last try of what happens to build an actual media company on the internet.
2:54:21
>> A Shane Smith type would 100% be successful and maybe could have some people underneath them.
2:54:26
But I think like TBPN for instance is not a faceless brand. It's not CNBC. >> You guys are TBPN.
2:54:33
>> And I think like that is anything going to grow going forward. >> Andrew Callahan.
2:54:36
Like Channel 5 is Andrew Callahan, right?
2:54:37
And uh and and if it was truly just like, oh, it's just like the Channel 5 is is a faceless aesthetic. Yes. For fun.
2:54:45
>> And I think like A24 might be the last faceless media company.
2:54:48
Like they have created a brand of prestige.
2:54:50
I don't know how easy that is to do going forward. >> Yeah.
2:54:54
>> Where do you think live streaming goes from here? >> Live's the future.
2:54:58
>> And I think you know most of the people that we're talking about in culture right now, you guys included are live streamers.
2:55:03
Whether it's like I show speed or kaat or on a completely other end of the spectrum Nick Fuentes, there's a reason why we're talking about these people and I think it's because you're giving a daily amount of content that can be clippable and hack the algorithm of every single platform that exists.
2:55:17
And so I think we are in this sort of postplatform state where you might have your preferred platform that you use, but it all kind of has the same content at this point.
2:55:26
And so people are larger than any one app if you do this correctly.
2:55:31
And I think live is like the real spot where that kind of comes to fruition.
2:55:35
>> Are you working on any live shows?
2:55:37
>> Um definitely have live shows in the works.
2:55:39
I mean had like the huge honor of of working with Aisha Speed on his Speed Does America tour which he was live for 35 days straight.
2:55:47
>> Um he filmed himself sleeping for 34 nights in a row.
2:55:49
Um and I didn't know I didn't know he didn't I I assumed he was going offline.
2:55:54
No, >> he did not turn off the camera for 35 days.
2:55:57
>> Isn't there a real risk of going crazy?
2:55:59
I think it's all he knows cuz he's only 20 years old and he's been doing this for like four years which is crazy. Yeah.
2:56:04
Someone had a great point when we were filming which was like he turned our world into the Truman Show because it's not like he's on some set like the set is the city that we live in.
2:56:13
What's really interesting about Eyes Show Speed is I think people see the viral clips, but if you open up a stream and just click to a random moment and you actually understand how he's interacting with chat, how he's like killing time and filling dead air.
2:56:29
>> I think he talks to chat in a way that I've never seen anybody on Earth.
2:56:30
I mean, he knows who Chat is.
2:56:32
And when he says, "I love you, Chat."
2:56:34
You're like, he actually loves Chat.
2:56:36
He's talking to that young 13-year-old kid or 50-year-old guy that like for some reason is watching this episode.
2:56:41
don't understand with the streamers how high skill ceiling talking to chat is.
2:56:44
Lwig was talking about if he had to start over, could he be successful in the modern era as be as a streamer and his his first bullet point was I'm good at talking to chat.
2:56:56
And so that's a skill that I could immediately cash in on.
2:56:57
But then of course you have to figure out like how do you get your first viewer and so he does a bunch of stunts and he he ran this experiment um and somewhat successfully.
2:57:07
But mostly I was just it was just interesting to hear someone talk about uh you know the nature of live with chat is so different than TV.
2:57:18
Bloomberg has a chat room >> but they never talk to chat on Bloomberg TV you know and I was thinking about how funny that would be cuz every all the >> a lot of legacy media they turn off chat places.
2:57:28
>> Oh yeah yeah I'm not even talking about that.
2:57:31
I'm talking about right now like there are multi-billionaire hedge funds that have Bloomberg on and Bloomberg chat going on their Bloomberg terminal. >> Yeah.
2:57:40
>> And yet the person whatsoever. >> They don't connect.
2:57:43
They don't connect which is so fascinating.
2:57:45
>> But like this is what I explain to everyone of like why I think live is the future.
2:57:48
There was a moment on the speed tour where he was in Cincinnati. He's having lunch.
2:57:51
There's like a glass door at the front or glass window at this restaurant.
2:57:55
And of course like anywhere he goes there's a crowd of thousands of kids that are outside trying to go see this kid.
2:57:59
Speed goes to the window at one point just to like get a better look of the crowd.
2:58:02
And there's one kid front and center.
2:58:04
This kid is so excited to see Speed that he bashes his head through the glass window.
2:58:07
[laughter] Like World War Zombie And I think like that is the answer of like this medium is so powerful that it's somehow making this like 12-year-old kid into a zombie because of the connection that he feels with speed. That is live.
2:58:20
That's not like uploading a Tik Tok video. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's weird.
2:58:25
There's There's a very like Yeah. Yeah.
2:58:27
just so many interesting uh TV.
2:58:30
>> You're behind the camera.
2:58:30
You're creating shows and different concepts and and through that you're creating inevitably creating stars and future superstars.
2:58:39
How do you think about like partnering with talent in the short term and the long term?
2:58:45
uh that I feel like one of the big challenges that uh uh when you look at at creator modern creatorled media companies you have bar stool Dave Portoi he created other stars they end up going and going independent or going and doing other deals Alex Cooper then was a bar stool creator left then uh like you know created Alex Earl to some degree then Alex Earl leaves and the cycle sort of like continues use.
2:59:16
And I think that's like probably the maybe like one of the number one challenges for gymnasium is like how do you >> it's hard enough to create the star and then how do you kind of partner for the long term.
2:59:27
long term. I mean this is something that like honestly I evolved my own perspective on I think for a long time I tried to figure out like how could we hold on to that star and I think where I've completely changed my opinion is like the creators have the power and even if they didn't start as a creator but now they are they hold the cards and
2:59:43
I think all you can hope to be is the best partner to them but it is for them they are the ones that are in control and so I think where we've really shifted with gymnasium is like gymnasium at this point is very much a television studio for brands to make themselves into TV networks it's like we can turn brands into creators. But I think there
2:59:58
But I think there is another completely different angle that >> theoretically you can retain the brand longer and if you're creating a diversity of creators or talent that work effectively for the brand then you're effect you're not you're not uh entirely indexed to one superstar and we even saw night media lost like Mr. Right.
3:00:19
But think about this, like if you are Skittles and you're building the Skittles digital network of shows, and by the way, as a result of that, you've given three new kids a platform that are now going to go be famous.
3:00:28
Their story will always start with they got famous for being on like the Skittles Network.
3:00:33
They might be your best brand ambassador you ever have.
3:00:34
I think that's like a blessing if someone were able to become a star for someone like that.
3:00:38
So, I think it makes a lot more sense on the brand side of things, but I think like the real future of this industry is helping creators turn into massive, massive stars.
3:00:47
Do you feel threatened at all by AI?
3:00:51
I feel from my point of view and understanding your business, I think humans are going to want to watch unscripted shows from real people.
3:01:00
I don't know if it's going to hit the same to be like watching boy room and it's like, yeah, we generated this crazy AI room. It's super dirty. [laughter] Yeah.
3:01:08
>> And here's this AI person who made the room dirty. >> Yeah. Yeah.
3:01:11
>> And it's like it like there's something about it being >> even if it's indistinguishable, people will will do the investigative journalism to be like, "Oh, boy room is now AI generated. We caught them."
3:01:21
And that will destroy it'll be like cheating in chess. I I imagine.
3:01:26
>> I mean, look, I think the benefit is like we're young and run a startup and an industry that's kind of being created every single day.
3:01:32
And so for us, I think we're always looking to see like what tool is coming out and seeing if we can use it and help us make our own better.
3:01:39
Um, but I think the reality is like when anyone's ever said, "Hey, like in the future people are going to watch an entire new season of succession by generating it."
3:01:46
It's like at the same time that you say that, the NFL's never had a bigger audience.
3:01:49
And I think like we humans have an innate desire to watch the same thing at the same time and be part of like a cult moment.
3:01:56
>> What's interesting about that is like, yeah, NFL has bigger audience than ever, but also there's more people playing Madden and watching effectively virtual football every year as well, >> but they're watching a human playing it >> there.
3:02:06
Well, well, or or Yeah, I wasn't even talking about that.
3:02:08
I mean, they're playing it like they are generating it themselves when they're playing it.
3:02:12
You're watching the screen while you play.
3:02:14
Then there's also people watching it on Twitch, which I think is what you're mentioning, or watching the video game version, watching someone else play.
3:02:19
And then there's watching real people play.
3:02:21
And so all three markets were good to invest in, oddly.
3:02:22
It wasn't one one defeated others. What about VR?
3:02:29
Uh, have you Is there anything interesting in your world in VR?
3:02:32
>> I mean, look, I it's cool.
3:02:32
I I've never seen a reason why like we're at that place in time yet where anyone's going to care to go and put these goggles on.
3:02:39
I think like, you know, I think the new meta glasses look really cool.
3:02:41
I'm excited to try them, but I think we're still a few years away.
3:02:45
>> I just have this I just have this thesis that if you if you went like all in on VR today and you just waited, waited, waited, you could be like the you could be the Jake Paul.
3:02:53
>> I mean, look, there's a lot of people that that have been doing that.
3:02:54
I think these are also a lot of people that raised a ton of money 10 years ago and like Sundance even had a part of their festival for VR films back then like you know unfortunately I think >> that is also where you risk sounding like someone who's just chasing the thing that people are talking about.
3:03:09
It's like first you're running a VR company now you're running a crypto company then you don't want to always chase those things.
3:03:14
I think for for me it's like just really what do I want to watch and what are the things that we can go make that are like fun to be a part of. >> Awesome.
3:03:20
Have you had a bunch of acquisition interests?
3:03:25
>> Definitely been interesting conversations.
3:03:26
I think you know it's less about >> I feel like if I'm hoping it's like an acquire thing, you know, >> hey, we need a play here bad. >> Mhm.
3:03:37
>> This seems like uh somebody >> we're getting killed on TikTok.
3:03:40
>> I mean, by the way, I do [laughter] think I do think like that creator side of like building stars is where these studios can have a big impact because it does take millions of dollars if you want to go do this.
3:03:52
something like, "Hey, we're going to go build this creator.
3:03:55
It does take money in the licensing world and in the merch world and live events world that would honestly be really helpful to tap into."
3:04:06
>> Have you thought about trying to launch a new startup with a show?
3:04:08
Are you doing that at all?
3:04:11
>> I think that's always been some of the the thought behind any new show.
3:04:13
It's like how big could this get?
3:04:14
What are the things that can kind of come out of this?
3:04:17
And I think you've seen a lot of, you know, tech companies now realize the importance of media and doing it the other way around.
3:04:22
But I think like that's the most interesting thing on earth. >> Yeah. Yeah.
3:04:25
Because you could partner with Amazon on a show or you could partner with some consumer brand that's like we'll give you 15% of our company if you can get us 200 million views and kind of take us from zero to to one.
3:04:38
>> And I think that's the really interesting side about like where Gymnasium is going is like it is more than anything a sort of you know creative consultancy for the first time.
3:04:46
like we can really help you build your brand in terms of taking over like cultural dominance through the type of media you have.
3:04:53
>> You haven't raised money either.
3:04:54
>> We raised a very small we raised a 750k round three years ago. >> Oh wow.
3:04:58
>> Um and it was with a lot of just like classic industry players like Jeremy Zimmer who was the CEO of UTA and Matthew Seagull at Attention and some really interesting people but um haven't raised a dollar yet.
3:05:07
>> Smart Smart to not like raise 75 million and then you're like oh suddenly we need 300 shows. >> No.
3:05:12
I think [laughter] it's it's like what's the point?
3:05:14
I mean it's we're not at that time where you would even want to stake a bet in terms of raising that much money.
3:05:20
>> Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
3:05:21
>> Well, it's very pragmatic.
3:05:22
>> Thank you so much for showing away so I can come in person.
3:05:26
>> Uh wait, we got to ring the gong for the for the >> How many views How many views do you think you're going to do this year?
3:05:31
>> Um it depends if you include the speed tour.
3:05:34
I think we're already at like two billion plus bution we're count. >> Congratulations. Thank you so much. All right, good form. Thanks so much. Pleasure.
3:05:48
>> We'll talk to you in just a second.
3:05:48
Uh before we move on, let me tell you about getbbezzle. com.
3:05:55
Your bezel concier is available to now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch.
3:05:58
Um Vas on X says, "Just tried Gemini 3. 0. It's over." Um very very funny post.
3:06:06
I think even if you >> We are working on getting access.
3:06:10
>> We're working on getting access. What do you think?
3:06:11
Uh it seems that Warren Buffett also tried Gemini 3 uh Berkshire Long Google.
3:06:17
>> Long Google right now.
3:06:18
>> Yeah, they they just uh No way. >> Wow. >> Did they buy it?
3:06:22
How what what kind of size? >> I think 4. 3 billion. >> Let's go. >> Come on.
3:06:28
You can do more than that. >> Toss in 100 billion. >> That's fascinating.
3:06:31
>> That's fascinating. I mean it it just goes to show you that like the AI even if it's like a bubble like it is there is no systemic there is no systemic uh like uh chaos all over the place like there will be pockets of things that are overvalued pockets of things that are
3:06:46
undervalued opportunities all over the place of the day you know you have Google trading at what 20x or something >> let's pull up this video of of uh somebody breaking through the glass >> yeah 28 um yeah let's watch the speed video and then let's also tell you about wander. Find your happy place. Book a Find your happy place.
3:07:04
Book a wander with inspiring views, hotel grade amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning. I'm in a wander.
3:07:11
>> It's a vacation home but better.
3:07:11
Also, I didn't I didn't give everyone an update on what my eight sleep score actually was.
3:07:16
I of course am sleeping on my eight.
3:07:18
Uh it's I got an 85 so I'm doing pretty well. I'd like a sound effect.
3:07:21
Do you even have access to the old sound effects?
3:07:24
I feel like we might have over rotated towards the night vision goggles turning on and we no longer have access to the classics, the horse, the Ashton Hall sound effect.
3:07:33
Are any of those still on the board, Jordy, or have they all been replaced with Oh, it's still there. Thank goodness.
3:07:39
I thought we lost touch and I thought we only had night vision goggles. Um, which I do enjoy.
3:07:47
Um, is there any other news that we need to talk talk through?
3:07:49
Should we go through some mansion section?
3:07:50
We missed the entire mansion section.
3:07:52
And we had so much to talk about today. >> Pull it up.
3:07:56
>> Which one do you want to do?
3:07:57
>> Where should we start >> with the mansion section?
3:07:58
Um, >> Donald Trump's home. His childhood home. >> This is a big deal.
3:08:03
>> He's hitting the market. >> This is a big deal. There's >> in Queens.
3:08:07
>> You could buy this because you love the guy.
3:08:08
You could buy it because you hate the guy.
3:08:09
You want to tear it down and build something else.
3:08:12
>> We got this video first. Play this video. I need to see this.
3:08:14
>> Yeah, let's play this.
3:08:14
This is Speed on the Speed Tours America tour.
3:08:17
Uh, what is going on here?
3:08:21
And someone is about to jump through the glass.
3:08:24
He's Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. That is crazy.
3:08:30
[laughter] He actually bonked his head on the glass and uh [laughter] and broke the glass.
3:08:37
And that seems like that's like at a McDonald's or something.
3:08:39
It's at a real restaurant that probably doesn't buy the cheapest glass. I don't know. That's pretty crazy.
3:08:45
Um, >> it's funny to use his head like he's got his hands.
3:08:52
>> He's such a great actor. >> Went for the heads.
3:08:54
>> I I I wonder I wonder if he'll ever uh transition to like, you know, being in movies because all the >> I'm sure he could. >> It's fantastic.
3:09:03
>> Be in any number of movies at this point.
3:09:05
Um, >> anyway, eight-month renovation.
3:09:05
Donald Trump's childhood home is hitting the market in Jamaica Estates.
3:09:10
The house is selling for 2. 3 million.
3:09:12
Um, you know, uh, let's see what else is here.
3:09:16
Uh, charming tutor style house in Queens, New York.
3:09:20
He lived there in his earliest years of his life.
3:09:22
Decades later, the latest in a string of owners is hoping the home's connection to Trump will help turn a healthy profit.
3:09:31
>> So, in 2008, it sold for 782,000. 2016, 1. 3. 2017, >> 2. 14.
3:09:39
2025, it somehow sold for 800,000.
3:09:43
And now it's back up at 2 point being listed at 2. 3. >> What happened? Something odd. Uh, very, very bizarre.
3:09:51
Anyway, there's another story in here.
3:09:53
Before building their retirement home, they had to relocate 174 legless lizards.
3:09:59
That is a [snorts] bizarre headline.
3:10:02
Uh, a pair of retirees needed to remove protected slow worms from the property before they could break ground on their $3. 2 $. 2 million.
3:10:13
So, I was hoping countryside.
3:10:15
>> This one isn't hitting the market yet, but I could see Paul PG snapping this one up.
3:10:19
[laughter] >> He's going to get in.
3:10:21
>> This house looks absolutely lovely. >> You love it.
3:10:26
>> Has a little pond you can swim.
3:10:29
>> Even though you even though uh they had to relocate they had to painstake they had to spend weeks painstakingly capturing and relocating almost 200 of the creatures.
3:10:38
Uh, slowworms, a legally protected reptile.
3:10:42
They're not worms, they're harmless, legless lizards. What a bizarre world.
3:10:46
But no, catching slowworms was not something we'd ever had to do before.
3:10:50
It was actually very hard work, but strangely, I enjoyed doing it. They did it themselves. Wow.
3:10:56
>> We'll do it ourselves.
3:10:57
>> Uh, >> Can you imagine trying to catch 170 lizards?
3:11:02
>> Oh my god, that'd be gross. I don't know.
3:11:05
I don't like that fun for a >> I don't like snakes. These sound like snakes.
3:11:08
They don't have an image, thank goodness, of what the snakes look like, but I'm not into it at all.
3:11:11
But I'm very happy for these folks out in the English countryside, uh, who rescued >> These are snakes.
3:11:19
These are some of these >> sketchiest looking things ever.
3:11:22
They're like massive worms.
3:11:26
>> I don't like these at all.
3:11:26
This is a ter terrible selection.
3:11:28
I had you I had you select the mansion section stories.
3:11:32
>> I selected it because the the home looks incredible.
3:11:35
>> Yeah, the home's nice.
3:11:35
I'm glad that it's worm free.
3:11:36
I would be moving to Ireland. I don't like snakes.
3:11:40
>> It's only 40 miles southwest of central London, which means that it probably takes like three, four minutes in an Aston Martin >> Valkyrie.
3:11:51
Is there any other news that we missed today?
3:11:53
I think we have it mostly covered.
3:11:56
I think we can um say goodbye. Have a great weekend.
3:11:59
We will see you on Monday.
3:12:02
And thank you for tuning in.
3:12:05
Leave us five stars on Apple Podcast and Spotify.
3:12:07
And uh subscribe to the TBPN Substack, tbpn. com.
3:12:10
Thank you so much for tuning in. Have a great weekend.
3:12:14
>> Have a fantastic weekend. >> Goodbye. >> We love you. We'll see you Monday.