0:00
[music] I see a large IPO on the horizon.
Search this video
0:05
[music] You're surrounded by journalists. Hold your position.
0:13
[music] Overnight success. The waste material.
0:37
[music] clearing order inbound. >> Let's just roll.
1:09
We are surrounded by journal. Hold your position. Come on. Get up. Trust the experts here. Five. We are founder V.
1:43
I see multiple journalists on the horizon. Stand by. UAV online. >> Blaze. Double blaze. Triple blaze. Double kill. Fight.
2:17
[music] Coke is wreath match. We are experts. Triple blades. Let's [music] just roll. Right.
3:07
Hockey clearing order [music] inbound. Come on, [music] get up.
3:21
>> We are surrounded by journalists. Hold your position. >> Strike one. [music] >> Strike two.
3:36
[music] Activate golden retriever mode.
3:58
>> Market clearing order [music] inbound. Five.
4:05
[music] I see multiple journalists on the horizon. Stand by.
4:26
FOUNDER >> [music] >> YOU'RE WATCHING TVBN. >> Today's Wednesday. Is it Wednesday? Thursday. >> Thursday. >> July 2nd.
4:42
I got to update my sheet. Thursday, July 2nd. [applause] Uh 2026.
4:47
We are live from the Temple of Technology.
4:50
The TV Art on the Temple of Technology of Capital.
4:56
>> Uh let me tell you about ramp. com. Time is money. Say both.
4:58
He's used corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place.
5:05
And let's also talk about the news. Fable has been freed.
5:07
Fable 5 is now available.
5:10
Uh good news for the AI world.
5:14
Of course, uh the Wall Street Journal says the battle over how to tame AI has just begun.
5:19
Obviously, there's lots of back and forth on um how these models get released, who gets access, when people get access, will the government get access at certain points, how fettered is the intelligence, how unfettered is the intelligence.
5:33
Um but there's a number of interesting uh news.
5:39
the the interesting uh detail that people are sort of p pulling at is um the new Fable 5 that is now released seems to have been uh nerfed in some ways.
5:51
There's always been questions about, you know, okay, you don't want it to be able to build a bioweapon or hack a system.
5:56
So, uh locking down cyber security makes sense, but you should probably disclose that and be transparent about it.
6:03
And then the question of how do you uh deal with the uh self-replicating AI?
6:09
If you just ask it to build an AI system that can build you a bioweapon, well then you have the >> build me unfettered intelligence. >> Exactly.
6:17
So you have >> Cambridge Analytica unfettered.
6:18
Not limited by rules or any >> What did you say? >> Unfettered. >> No, no.
6:25
What What source is this? >> Uh Cambridge.
6:27
You said Cambridge Analytica [laughter] >> which I don't think has a dictionary.
6:34
>> They should launch a dictionary. >> That would be good. >> That would be great.
6:37
>> Maybe >> the Cambridge dictionary, >> but the dictionary uh the dictionary definition of unfettered is >> not limited by rules or any controlling influence.
6:45
So if there's >> I feel like intelligence, you're going to get regulated immediately.
6:49
>> Well, I just think like Neolab like everyone wants to be the cool friendly Neolab.
6:53
There's space for kind of a sketchy >> villain life.
6:58
[laughter] >> Well, we have Vipple from uh Together AI, building open-source AI cloud infrastructure coming on the show.
7:04
I'm sure he can talk about what's capable, what's possible when you are building unfettered intelligence.
7:10
Uh we have a bunch of other great folks joining the show.
7:14
Isaiah Taylor's coming on from Valor Atomics at noon.
7:16
Dean Ball at 1210 to talk about the export restrictions as well as what's going on with nationalization because there's also news that um uh that the uh uh this is from the Financial Times.
7:31
OpenAI proposes handing Trump administration a 5% stake.
7:35
Joe Weisenthal is pushing back already.
7:38
He says, "I don't know about this path.
7:39
Rather than equity stakes, why not make companies pay 20% of all pre-tax income to the federal government?
7:46
And then instead of exercising shareholder influence, politicians and regulators could set rules on corporate conduct across industries. Interesting.
7:56
>> I like where he's going with this. Someone should try this. At least try it out. >> Contrarian take.
8:00
But yes, um Dean Ball already chimed in on this news.
8:03
He said, uh the two there are two broad ways this can work.
8:09
One, you divide this 5% over all US households, handing each a direct stake.
8:13
Or two, you give the stake directly to the government. One is fine.
8:18
Two is probably ruinous, akin to inviting rats to live and reproduce in the walls of your house, which is wild.
8:26
Uh, he says it will never stop.
8:27
>> Not knock it till you try it, Dean.
8:29
>> Yeah, >> there's there's some rats out there that can be quite excellent roommates. >> Are you a rat guy?
8:34
I thought you were a mosquito guy.
8:36
I thought you like mosquitoes. No, I do like squirrels. >> Squirrels. Okay. >> Squirrels. >> Yeah.
8:41
>> I feel like I have a bond with squirrels.
8:43
>> They're sort of the aristocratic >> squirrel in my yard.
8:45
I look at it and I just salute.
8:46
[laughter] And And >> people have said you have the mind of a squirrel. >> They have. Yeah.
8:51
They they've said that I have the mind of a rodent. [laughter] >> Yes. Dean Ball continues.
8:56
He says, "It will never stop at 5%. It will go on and on.
9:01
The governance will become a nightmare.
9:02
Political capture will be real and it will generate precisely no goodwill with the public."
9:06
Yeah, that's a good point.
9:07
Um, and and we were talking about this before, this idea of like >> Yeah, one of the challenges is even the way this was phrased in the Financial Times is it it the assumption is that it's it sounds like >> they're giving shares not to a sovereign AI fund, which is I think what was actually proposed, but just giving it to the White House. >> Yeah. Yeah.
9:28
which given the disclosures that were made earlier this week, >> Times not having fun with it, said Trump denies conflicts of interest as filings show he made more than1 billion last year. Uh $1.
9:39
4 billion of stocks bought, $432 million sold.
9:42
Deals for watches and perfume.
9:46
Yes, the Trump watch happened.
9:48
Uh I saw a crazy chart that said that uh Trump earned outear earned Coinbase in terms of profit from crypto in the last 12 months or something like that.
9:57
I forget the exact stat but it it showed all the different crypto platforms and many of them were down because it's been a rough market.
10:05
Uh some of them are up but no one is up more than the president of the United States. Wild times. Wild times.
10:12
But um yes, it seems like it seems like the the green shoot here, the white pill, the optimistic outcome is that if there's lab nationalization, if there's some sort of uh distribution of equity to Americans, it happens through the Trump accounts, through social security number, through some sort of identity that the individual can have a stake in as opposed to um as opposed to just going into some uh fund.
10:40
We were talking about this with data centers where people are >> Tyler has the data. We can pull it up.
10:46
>> Okay, let's pull it up.
10:46
Wait, do you have it or no? >> Well, yes. So, Coinbase made 1.
10:50
26 billion net income, >> but pull up this chart because it is uh pretty remarkable.
10:57
>> Yeah, >> but um as I was saying with data centers, >> you guys you guys okay?
11:02
[laughter] I know it's Fourth of July weekend coming up, >> but >> there we go. Look at this. Okay, scroll up. Zoom out.
11:11
Let's get it a little centered. >> There we go. >> Corsific.
11:15
Let's lock it into the center. >> Galaxy. >> Let's lock. >> There we go. >> And there we go. Amazing. Thank you.
11:22
>> Out earned biggest listed US crypto firms.
11:25
Uh you have to imagine that is is Hyperlid doing better?
11:28
I feel like Hyperlid was on a tear for a while.
11:30
I don't know how they're doing recently, but um anyway, staggering chart.
11:33
Uh but as we were talking about with data centers, uh there's one idea which is uh uh just tax them, increase the tax base.
11:44
But having having taxes go into your local government is great and can provide roads and schools and pay for things and balance the budget and that's great, but it's abstract as opposed to the Ben Thompson proposal which was data center shows up in a small town.
11:56
It's in it's in, you know, a a sparsely populated area.
12:00
There might only be 5,000 10,000 residents in the city.
12:02
Uh but they all get checks for he he ran the numbers and it was like a thousand dollars a month for some of these data center projects where they're making so much money and the town's so small they can do a meaningful check to the individuals and that sort of direct payment I think is going to be better received than this abstract oh yeah my government's better funded but are they going to cut my taxes?
12:26
Are they going to successfully build that road? I don't know.
12:28
And it doesn't help me pay my bills which I think is what people want. >> What were you saying?
12:32
Trump did in fact outear earn Hyperlid by a meaningful margin.
12:37
Hyperlquid generated 98 million in total fees in 2025. >> Brutal. >> Um yeah.
12:41
So just like running very quick numbers on the opening I thing.
12:43
So uh if it's like 5% let's say it's at a trillion or something that's 50 billion.
12:50
>> Uh if you're giving it to households like like this idea uh there's like 130 million households.
12:54
So that's like $371 of like equity per household, >> which I think is like sure maybe that's that's meaningful, but it doesn't seem like that's really going to like >> change people's perceptions of the labs if that's like part of the goal, right?
13:08
>> Well, I think if it's uh I mean so >> maybe they do the right parlay with that [clears throat] >> with that.
13:14
So I mean the the nice thing about the Trump accounts is that they are set up in a way that you can uh elect to donate to just children born this year.
13:27
And when you segment by that the denominator gets a lot smaller and so the impact gets a lot bigger.
13:33
So you could be all of a sudden looking at something like a few thousand dollar for every kid born this year or something like that. You can narrow it down.
13:43
You could do every kid under five or you could do everyone under 18.
13:47
And that type of I mean, you're right.
13:49
It's not going to move the needle as much as broad uh broad distribution of uh for for everyone, but um you can be a little bit more targeted with it. I don't know.
14:01
There there's different approaches.
14:02
>> Ryan says, "Wait, does America get 5% of TBPN?"
14:06
>> Yes, >> I was never thinking about that.
14:08
>> Yes, we podcast for you, America. >> That's right.
14:11
>> This is the the funniest outcome is the most likely.
14:13
And that's exactly what's happening here. >> Community ownership. >> Yeah. >> Of this show.
14:17
>> Somebody called me a fed based on this news.
14:19
And I said, uh, I don't even know what to do with that.
14:22
But, uh, [laughter] I guess it's somewhat true.
14:24
Uh, the actual story here, just to, uh, reset, opening eyes, uh, apparently in talks according to the Financial Times with the Trump administration to give a 5% equity stake in the company.
14:36
The Financial Times describes the talks as early conversations, but the plans seem to involve other frontier AI players aortioning stakes in their companies as well.
14:46
The obvious context around this story is at least on a straightforward read that AI companies need at least to stem the seemingly ever growing negative sentiment around AI and data centers.
14:57
Doing business with the Trump admin has turned out well for other companies like Intel and Dell.
15:00
Intel and Dell. Intel's the big one where post uh post government stake I think the stock is up 200 or 400% something like that >> 400 >> 400% very very strong performance for Intel uh and being difficult to do uh being difficult to do business with the
15:17
admin has been unambiguously bad for others and now there's a vehicle with the Trump accounts that can facilitate equity transfers from corporations to average Americans again these are early conversations so we're very light on the details but we'll be discussing this news of course. Um, in other news,
15:30
Um, in other news, Jersey Mike is filing for initial public offering.
15:36
Jersey Mike is going public.
15:40
The sandwich chain Jersey Mike filed for IPO today.
15:42
Uh, it's looking for a 12 billion valuation after being acquired by Blackstone last year for 8 billion.
15:50
>> Let's give it up for Blackstone.
15:52
>> Yeah, they needed a win.
15:52
They're [applause] getting a nice 50% markup in just a year.
15:55
Jersey >> forced out of buying single family homes.
15:58
Yeah, that's not true at all.
16:01
There hasn't been any [laughter] there hasn't been any regulation around that whatsoever. >> Joking.
16:05
>> Uh they do own 95% of homes apparently. Something like that.
16:08
No, it's like it's like half a percent or something. It's low.
16:11
But Jersey Mike's has 3,300 locations across the US and Canada.
16:16
Plans to open 300 shops in the UK and Ireland.
16:19
Uh Peter Kro, Jersey Mike's founder, who's not named Mike.
16:22
You would assume he was, but the founder of Jersey Mike is in fact named Peter.
16:27
He started the business in 1975 when he was 17 years old. Wow.
16:33
Young >> overnight success.
16:36
>> He actually founded the business when he purchased a sandwich shop in Point Pleasant, New Jersey called Mike's Subs with a $125,000 loan that he got from his then football coach who was also a banker. >> So you're incredible.
16:52
high school football in New Jersey and you have an idea to buy a sandwich shop.
17:02
>> Coach is like, "This guy's a star.
17:02
I should give him a six figure SBA loan."
17:07
>> Also, 17 $125,000 in 1975 is like $25 million by today's standards, [laughter] isn't it?
17:16
>> Also, that's just such a such a for me, at least personally, at 17. >> Yeah.
17:22
If I had a couple thousand in my bank account, I was feeling like the king of the castle. >> Yeah.
17:30
>> So, $125,000 to buy a sandwich shop.
17:31
We don't really know what the financials were of the sandwich shop.
17:35
It's very possible that uh you know, it was just such a slam dunk deal that even a 17-year-old could uh operate it. >> This is a no-brainer.
17:45
>> It might have just been a no-brainer, but but clearly >> so incredible.
17:49
$125,000 in 1975 just using inflation, not investing in the market, not compounding, uh using the general CPI inflation numbers.
17:59
That gives you $775,000 to in today's dollars.
18:05
So, if you're a 17-year-old football player, just go to your football coach and say, "Hey, can you can you loan me three4ers of a million dollar?"
18:14
>> CH in the chat says, "Coach, I need A100s."
18:15
Yeah, that >> you might be able to go to your coach and and you know basically get the financing to set up some type of NeoCloud. >> Yeah.
18:24
>> So he uh so he grew the company for almost 50 years 1975 to 2025 basically uh before transitioning to chairman this April.
18:33
Uh former Wingstop CEO Charlie Morrison now leads the company.
18:37
The ticker will be JM K, Jersey Mike. So go check it out. It's a lot of fun.
18:44
Um, the other news, the Office of Personnel Management, OPM, otherwise known as other people's money, uh, is ending taking other people's money via paper for retirement.
18:57
OPM ends paperbased retirement process.
19:00
The U, uh, the US Office of Personal Management says it has digitized the retirement process for government employees.
19:08
Uh, this might seem like a boring news item, but the story behind it is actually kind of wild.
19:14
Up until now, the process for government employees and US veterans to retire and start receiving their pensions could take up to six months. That's a long time.
19:23
This is because it's entirely paperbased and manual.
19:26
Spike Brem, who helped with the effort, described how crazy this turned out to be in reality.
19:32
In a post on X, uh, they said that they did it.
19:36
The Mad Lads actually did it.
19:38
I never talked about my time at Doge last year because it was so controversial and contentious.
19:41
Early last year, Joe Gbia, founder of Airbnb and current uh uh US chief design officer, recruited a handful of his most trusted early Airbnb engineers to embed at the Office of Personnel Management to solve the retirement paper problem.
19:57
said processing a federal retirement took months and an extreme and in the extreme retirees could wait up to six months for their full pension to arrive. What was the holdup? Paper.
20:10
Remember here hearing Elon talk about the mine in Pennsylvania.
20:13
We got to visit it in deep underground caverns blasted out of limestone.
20:20
There were literally acres of file cabinets.
20:23
As far as the >> I'm going to go ahead and say this was a feature, not a bug. >> You like this?
20:27
I think people generally yearn for the minds and so it's possible that it's possible that it wasn't the most efficient way to do business but it was the most fun way >> but now you're like a single issue voter like we got to return we got to go back >> we got to bring back the mine. >> Yeah. Okay. Okay.
20:42
You're you're into the mines.
20:44
Uh a controversial position but uh enjoy it.
20:47
Storing files detailing federal employees employment and payub history.
20:52
A simple case might be a quarter or a half inch thick, but really complex cases filled up whole filing cabinets.
20:59
One famously took up a whole pallet.
21:01
I wonder what was going on with that particular federal government employee that they had a whole pallet where they jumping around from job to job or something. I don't know.
21:09
Each case was handed was hand processed by case workers in cubicles deep underground.
21:15
to you clock in at the ultimate lock-in factory in the mine in a cubicle underground processing someone's pension.
21:24
They checked calculations, made sure forms were filled out properly, many weren't, and handed the long tale of complex issues.
21:32
We watched as they keyed data into a black and white terminal, transmitting to the cobalt mainframe built many decades ago.
21:38
We got to keep the cobalt flowing for sure. We can't update that.
21:42
It's such a good programming language. It just sounds so cool. Cobalt.
21:44
No one wants to write Ruby on Rails.
21:46
You want to write Cobalt? Sounds cool.
21:49
Since cases were processed by hand, there were multiple rounds of human review and additional rounds for complex cases.
21:57
Case files were walked around between one worker's outbox and another's inbox.
22:01
Sometimes it would sit in place in one place for days waiting to be picked up.
22:05
To OPM's credit, they'd done multiple rounds of digital transformation spanning decades.
22:08
So, some systems were newer than others.
22:10
Then there was a big effort in the mid '9s, but the but the systems were desperate were desperate and it was a total maze getting them to talk to each other.
22:19
There was a big effort to build a web app where employees applying for retirement could digitally fill out the forms necessary just to be mailed to the [laughter] mine and stuffed into the paper file.
22:28
Uh and a few federal agencies were even using it.
22:32
Uh when we arrived, OPM was midway through a fresh attempt at digital transformation delivered by a software contractor.
22:38
Uh the black pill was seeing the entire the terrible quality of the software and interaction with the contractors coming from Silicon Valley.
22:46
I couldn't believe how low the talent quality bar was for selling software to the government.
22:49
It's clear as the U OG USDS people explained to me a decade ago the primary skill these vendors have is securing government contracts.
22:56
It's huge moat delivery of quality product be damned.
23:00
We fired the vendor and took over the project.
23:02
They've been working on it for more than a year and there was another year before they were going to deliver it.
23:07
At first, we tried to bend it to our will to actually connect all the various data sources and get decent UX for case workers in the mine to use.
23:16
But we soon realized we were going to have to rebuild the whole stack from scratch.
23:18
It was around this time I had to go back to New York.
23:20
I had a new job waiting for me, a four-month old, a wife whose patience was running out.
23:23
But I got to watch from afar as the team cranked day and night, hitting early milestones.
23:28
Now they've fully done it.
23:30
Huge congrats to the team. Wow. Yeah, very interesting. Uh, good news. Good news.
23:35
The digitization of retirement process should now allow people to complete it in minutes and start receiving their pensions immediately.
23:41
The pictures and videos of the limestone vault where all this paper is stored are just fascinating. I like it. Um, there's other news.
23:48
SpaceX apparently is maybe working on a phone.
23:52
At the very least, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that during SpaceX's recent IPO road show, before SpaceX went public, they were showing investors a prototype of something sort of like an iPhone, uh, AI enhanced, maybe thinner.
24:13
The Wall Street Journal has some reporting around it, and it's an interesting story.
24:17
Elon's denied this a bunch.
24:19
Um, but uh the reporting seems pretty good at this point that at least it was a >> demo.
24:24
[clears throat] It's hard to see why he wouldn't at least take a shot at >> is kind of my is my point of view.
24:32
He has >> one of the greatest telecom companies ever created global satellite network.
24:38
theoretically over time any person on the entire planet could have an internet connected you know SpaceX device with Starlink.
24:47
Uh it makes a lot of sense.
24:50
The other factor that I've just continued to think is is quite interesting is uh I think that uh the app store as a moat has is is being diminished by AI.
25:00
There's just so many things.
25:02
Uh there's so many things there's so many apps on my phone that like 5 years ago I used a lot.
25:06
Today I don't use at all.
25:09
So an example being like I don't even need like the weather app.
25:12
I can just be like I can ask Chad give me the weather for the next week.
25:16
Obviously not >> beer app. >> Uh yeah.
25:18
And I don't even need that cuz I can just be like vibe code me my own beer app today. Uh, [laughter] no.
25:21
But, uh, obviously it's not like an efficient way to use like like it's not like it's probably better to just open the weather app, >> but at the same time I'm very used to it.
25:34
The other thing is like even things like surf reports like I'll just pull a surf report in chat. >> Yeah. Yeah.
25:39
>> Um, and so there's a lot of like the long tale of apps are no longer like a lock in to the iPhone for me and I assume a lot of other people. >> Okay. Yeah.
25:49
We got to have a chicken and egg debate about this.
25:51
Uh let me finish reporting the uh SpaceX news and then I want to ask you to dig into the source of why that's happening.
26:00
But first uh so SpaceX developed an early prototype of an AI focused handset.
26:06
The device is said to be slimmer than the iPhone.
26:09
Runs proprietary operating system.
26:11
Uses XAI technology built around Qualcomm's Snapdragon chipset.
26:15
So, they're not vertically integrating the chip like Apple silicon just yet, but Elon has fab chips before for Tesla.
26:22
So, not out of this uh not out of the question.
26:25
Elon Musk reportedly demoed the prototype to potential investors during SpaceX's recent IPO road show.
26:31
The product fits with with Musk's broader everything app vision, but it's still early and may never ship.
26:37
Rumors about a Musk built phone have have circulated for years.
26:41
There's videos on YouTube with like tens of millions of views that are like the Tesla Pi phone is coming next week and it's all just completely fl fake clickbait.
26:51
But it the demand >> gets you every time.
26:54
>> It doesn't [laughter] get me every time. Stop it.
26:56
>> But um uh Elon's actually there vision pro.
27:00
You see the video and you're like I shouldn't click it. I know it's fake. I shouldn't click it. I know it's fake.
27:05
And then you click it and you're like ah they got me again. >> Yeah. Know it is ridiculous.
27:07
But Elon has had to comment on this many times.
27:11
Uh he said, "The idea of the idea of making a phone makes me want to die."
27:13
He said in October, "But if we have to make a phone, we will."
27:18
Funny funny way to say it.
27:21
In February, he denied a Reuters report that SpaceX was building a phone that could connect directly to Starlink satellites posting on X.
27:27
We are not developing a phone and uh no one is commenting on this right now.
27:31
Uh so very very early stage.
27:34
My question about apps, I think you're right. the number of apps.
27:38
It used to be every month there was a hot app, every year there was a hot app.
27:42
Uh specific apps for specific things.
27:45
What is driving the collapse?
27:48
Because when we talked to Mark Pinkis yesterday, he said that Apple is not pushing small apps like Apple is not a the app store is not a reliable source of distribution for vibecoded apps, for games, for anything.
27:59
And so back in the day, he was able to grow Zingga on the Facebook platform, which was very open and you could go viral within Facebook for a completely separate piece of software, not just content.
28:10
And then you could keep that customer relationship, monetize that c customer relationship off platform forever. Uh not the case anymore.
28:18
Uh also, uh just discovery.
28:21
People don't open up the app store as much, I think, and say, "Oh, what are the top apps?
28:25
Oh, what are the recommendations?
28:27
I would love a new entertainment app."
28:28
They're like, "No, I got >> one new app, please.
28:31
>> One new app, [laughter] please."
28:33
>> They don't They don't That's not a behavior. But why?
28:36
>> Let me go to the app store.
28:36
I would like one or two new apps, please. >> Yeah. Yeah.
28:40
But why doesn't So So, so why is it not happening?
28:42
Is it because the super apps are getting more super in the sense that you don't need you used to need a you need you needed Snapchat for stories, you needed Tik Tok for vertical video, you needed YouTube for long form.
28:55
Now Instagram can satisfy a lot of those things.
28:58
If there's some new feature that pops up, Instagram will add it very quickly.
29:01
As you mentioned, chatbt and the the AI chat apps can do a lot of other things that you might need a separate app for.
29:08
Um, but is it is it that is it that the the apps consolidated or is it that Apple pushed that? >> It's a good question.
29:18
I mean, I think part of it is like we had 10 years of like very real innovation around what types of applications were possible or needed on a like powerful mobile device.
29:35
>> Uh and so I think that you just had like saturation, right?
29:38
Um there's uh I I still I've said this a bunch of times on the show, but given that uh you know rewind to the chat GBT moment, I would expect there to be a lot more like net new hit apps in the app store.
29:55
>> And [clears throat] today if you look at the top charts, obviously dominated by World Cup related things, but it's yeah >> uh sports betting >> like streaming apps are >> Trump accounts are doing very well. Yeah.
30:06
Um, and so it's not like, you know, if I'd, you know, uh, fallen asleep at the Chad GBT moment and woken up today, I would expect to go and be like, okay, there's there's probably a bunch of new popular hit consumer apps.
30:18
>> And it just turns out that AI's like been an extending innovation for a lot of existing apps.
30:25
>> Um, and so I just think the combination of the of of LLMs uh, and chat apps being able to just do so much for you and going to continually be able to do more for you And vibe coding is again a a positive tailwind for anybody building potentially a new device even if it was you know uh especially if it's based on Android but even if it was like an entirely new operating system.
30:49
Elon built a new operating system for Tesla.
30:54
>> But that's not the Elon goal.
30:54
He's not the open platform guy when Twitter when he purchased Twitter the API got smaller.
31:03
I'm not saying I'm not saying Tesla is not an open ecosystem.
31:05
You can't you can't deploy a different self-driving system onto your Tesla. It's a closed system.
31:11
It's a competitor to the Apple ecosystem.
31:13
It's an equally walled garden. But but it would be his.
31:18
>> I'm just saying it's it's it doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility to take a crack at a new device that >> Well, there's a huge incentive, too.
31:25
I completely agree with that.
31:27
You don't No one wants to be locked in the Apple ecosystem.
31:30
So you want to build your own ecosystem or your own walled garden, but the idea that it would be a na a nonwalled garden is sort of it would be an uncharacteristic strategy. I I think >> I agree. >> Yeah.
31:44
Anyway, uh there's more news in the Wall Street Journal today.
31:47
Uh, Big Boogie, the Memphis rapper known for his high energy delivery and viral interview moments, declined an opportunity in Jacksonville in order to focus on music, according to remarks he made publicly.
32:01
He said, "I ain't go to college," Big Boogie said before adding that he turned it down to pursue rap.
32:07
>> And that surprised a lot of people at the time. >> It did.
32:10
Uh, so the opportunity, according to Big Boogie, involved a scholarship connected to a college marching band program.
32:16
The rapper said the school was located in Jacksonville, describing it as a big college with a big band.
32:23
Financial terms of the alleged offer could not be independently verified.
32:28
Big Boogie characterized the package as substantial though.
32:29
He said f he first described it as 15 million, then revised that estimate to 10 million and later 5 million.
32:36
The person present for the exchange challenged the figure in real time during this interview, noting that while the offer may have been a scholarship, it was unlikely to have totaled 5 million.
32:47
Uh Big Buy defended the characterization, suggesting the value reflected the length of the academic commitment. >> That's right.
32:56
Sort of an uncharacteristic commitment.
32:58
>> He said, "I had to go to school for this decade."
33:02
very uncharacteristic of typical college engagements.
33:05
Uh representatives for Big Boogie and the Unnamed Jacksonville Institution declined a comment.
33:11
Uh the Journal has learned that Big Boogie ultimately chose not to enroll, opting instead to continue building his career in rap. >> That's right.
33:20
>> I turned it down, he said. >> That's right.
33:22
This story is still developing.
33:24
We'll uh we'll keep following it for you.
33:27
>> There's another story.
33:27
There was a a couple that climbed to the top of the Empire State Building yesterday. Did you see this? >> I did.
33:35
>> And they put up a flag and they got married or they they they proposed or they got engaged.
33:40
>> A proposal >> and brands have immediately jumped on it. Let's go.
33:44
Let's give it up for some advertising.
33:47
>> No, there's backlash already.
33:47
Jack Applebee said this is so so embarrassing.
33:51
These brands think they really did really think they did something.
33:55
Uh, Lover Boy is the worst.
33:57
Congrats, you put your logo on a flag. Really innovative stuff.
33:59
The lack of originality and clever thinking in modern social media is just ridiculous.
34:03
Everyone had the exact same idea.
34:05
There's a meme, we got to get on the action.
34:07
Uh, it it and what's interesting is that a lot of these are beverage brands, it looks like.
34:11
Drink Culture Pop, drink Hyo, drink Lover Boy, drink Spritz, Bulletproof.
34:15
I guess that's bulletproof coffee.
34:18
Um, Fashion Nova, New York City, just the account New York City. I don't know.
34:24
Uh, Petco, stop breaking treats in two.
34:26
Uh, it is a fun meme format, but brands always it's very very hard to break through if you're just piling on the top meme. What do you think?
34:36
>> And uh, yeah, so this whole thing was >> I when when I I first saw the the video of the flag going up >> and they kind of botched the flag. I'm not going to lie.
34:49
It seems like they didn't fully anticipate the wind conditions that day.
34:52
The flag was quite hard uh the the writing on the flag was quite hard to read.
34:57
Uh I would have liked to see them erect like a fulls size, you know, billboard uh up there. >> Something permanent. >> Yeah.
35:05
Some something something, you know, more permanent and and certainly more legible than the flag.
35:10
Uh and then the quote was, "When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
35:20
But then they were just kind of making out and proposing [laughter] >> and uh yeah, it just it it felt like >> it has it has a little bit of like the AI cadence to it or like the don't love your job, job your love, you know. >> Yeah.
35:35
I mean that's that's make a lot of sense. Yeah. >> Yeah.
35:39
>> Could be a little more tur I suppose.
35:41
But anyway, um >> I just don't know if they were >> I'm still impressed.
35:44
It's just hard impressed with the with the climbing.
35:48
How did they did they climb up from the sidewalk or did they take the elevator and then hop out and then start climbing?
35:53
Because this wasn't like an Alex Honold from the base, free climb, free solo attack.
35:59
>> How fast is this helicopter going?
35:59
By the way, >> that's just the lens, baby.
36:02
This is a 600 millimeter lens.
36:03
This is lens compression, Jordy.
36:05
You're learning >> optics. Optics.
36:07
This is looking through a telescope, basically.
36:11
>> Dave says, "Quick tip for goth couples from the Matrix.
36:13
Make sure to account for wind speed." >> Wind speed. Yeah, >> I agree. Uh, yeah. So, anyways, very cool.
36:22
>> As far as pranks go and stuff, it's like it's not it's not going to be there permanently. It's easy to take down.
36:25
I I heard some uh some a recording of a helicopter pilot who was dispatched uh sort of emergency response NYPD.
36:32
And I think with the helicopter pilot like they're like, "Uh, alert, sir.
36:38
We have uh two individuals on the top of the Empire State Building."
36:42
He's like, "That sounds cool."
36:43
He's like, "That's awesome. Why are they up there?
36:45
They're like, well, they're not supposed to be. They're trespassing. He's like, oh, okay. Bummer.
36:49
But, uh, still impressive.
36:53
Anyway, >> yeah, good good story. Good story for them.
36:55
I don't know if it made the the sort of maybe uh political impact or whatever impact they were trying to have, but uh, happy for them >> and congratulations to, uh, to the couple. >> Yeah.
37:09
Uh, let me tell you about public. com investing.
37:12
for those that take it seriously.
37:13
They got stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service.
37:17
Uh Boston Dynamics might go public.
37:19
You know, you love the videos of the dancing robots.
37:24
Everyone loves the dancing robots, the dogs.
37:26
Uh they they have actually deployed many uh robotic products at this point. Uh Spot and Atlas.
37:35
Uh they can do parkour and they can also increase their market cap.
37:40
Recently, Hyundai bought Boston Dynamics for 1. 1 billion in 2021.
37:43
Uh, interestingly, the company was owned by Google for a while. They've gone back.
37:50
>> You're telling me that Hyundai might have an 80 bagger on their hands? >> They might. That's right.
37:54
Korean security firms now value Boston Dynamics at somewhere between 20 to 28 billion.
38:02
Bullish analysts are projecting 88 to$103 billion market cap at IPO.
38:10
um think the public markets want physical AI much.
38:12
Uh it is the logical the oldest firm, the most storied firm.
38:18
>> It's not really going to make a dent for Hyundai.
38:20
They have a $111 trillion market cap.
38:23
[snorts] >> That's uh what is that?
38:25
Uh >> the Korean uh one Juan >> Juan. Yeah.
38:30
Um you'll need to change that to USD if we want to get to the bottom of it.
38:35
Uh anyway, uh we have >> uh in other news, >> yeah, >> Google must pay nearly two billion to CLA in antitrust case.
38:44
>> That's in the journal.
38:45
>> Swedish court rules that the search giant favored its own price comparison service >> over CLA.
38:52
>> Uh they won a competitive an an antitrust case alleging the search giant engaged in anti-competitive practices.
38:58
Clara's price compar comparison unit PriceRunner uh sued Google in 2022 in Swedish court.
39:07
Pricerunner alleged Google was giving preferential treatment to its own price comparison service in its search results.
39:12
This ruling supports a healthier, more competitive market for the way people compare products and services.
39:17
According to CLA, shares of CLA rose 5% yesterday.
39:20
But it doesn't CLA is sitting at a $7. 4 billion market cap.
39:27
To me, this just reads like the market doesn't fully believe that they're going to get the two billion. Yeah.
39:34
>> Uh it's a Swedish court. Yeah.
39:36
>> They're going to appeal it.
39:36
I would expect that uh if if um >> Wall Street was expecting to them to actually get the $2 billion, you would have seen more movement.
39:47
>> And also Google's going to pay over time.
39:49
But [laughter] anyway, we have our next guest in the waiting room.
39:52
We have Andrew Collins from Flexjet. He's the global CEO.
39:56
We're very excited to have him join the show.
39:58
Welcome to the TVP and Ultradome.
40:02
Andrew, good to meet you.
40:04
Thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us. How are you? >> I'm doing great. Great to see you guys.
40:10
>> Great to see you, too.
40:10
Um, I would love since it's the first time on the show, I would love to go a little bit back with your history with the company, um, recent developments, recent news.
40:17
Uh, and then I have a bunch of questions about the shape of the business and where you're going next. Sure thing.
40:27
>> Um, so can you tell me a little bit about your background and your history with Flexjet? >> Sure.
40:34
Uh, I came into the company uh, in 2012 through an acquisition.
40:37
And I was running a company called Sensient Jet which invented the jet card >> uh which is a way of flying privately at 25 hours at a time and then uh over time was you know worked on a lot of different mergers and acquisitions within the company worked directly with the chairman uh and eventually was asked to become the global chief executive officer and it has been in a fantastic run.
41:01
It's been interesting and uh the company now sits at about 5,000 folks or so.
41:06
Uh, and we are global and you find me today in London.
41:08
Uh, I've been working out of our London office this whole week. >> Yeah.
41:12
How has the footprint grown?
41:15
What's been the biggest driver of growth internationally?
41:17
Uh, I'm thinking about the the fleet, but also the customer base.
41:22
Where has the business changed and reshaped during your tenure?
41:27
>> Yeah, it's been interesting.
41:27
I think that you know when I got into the private aviation space, >> it still was somewhat of a niche market and you know institutional capital eventually did discover it which was really interesting and I think that allowed for you know some expansion in the industry.
41:42
the industry. Uh but probably the big watershed moment you know really had to be COVID and what happened uh to you know in the last say I don't know five to six years uh 2019 was you know sort of your traditional singledigit growth um you know year and then co came in I think everybody worried about what would
42:02
happen to the business and then it absolutely exploded because I think people were you know held back they wanted to have experiences they wanted to get out there and so we saw a I know why it exploded is because private aviation is to me one of the most addicting things on the planet. And if
42:19
And if you get a bunch of people that get introduced to it because there's a pandemic, >> can't go back.
42:25
>> You can't it's really hard to go back.
42:25
I have a a a friend who was texting me like an addict last night uh because he's like, I got I I I can't I can't stop.
42:35
stop. uh he had like a he [laughter] made he was he he he boo he chartered something last night that uh was like a under a 5h hour drive or something like that and and he didn't even have a rush and all this stuff and >> um >> with all the social media addiction lawsuits I would be worried about the
42:54
business uh facing a similar uh similar addiction lawsuit because [laughter] it is one of the most addictive products out there >> more addict I I I do that's that's a good point a lot of people it's like give up social media or private aviation >> [laughter] >> They'd be like, "I'm giving up social media." >> Probably. Probably. >> Probably. Probably. >> I'm logging off. >> I hear that. That's great. Yeah. Fantastic.
43:12
[laughter] >> Anyway, so you mentioned you mentioned uh uh institutional capital coming into the business at a certain point in time.
43:19
Um help me understand that at a deeper level because I imagine that there have been uh there's been debt on a fleet.
43:23
Uh there's financing arrangements for individual assets in the portfolio.
43:28
What has the evolution of the capital structure of Flexjet and maybe just the the private aviation industry been generally over the last decade?
43:39
>> You know, it's a it's a really great question because I think we consider ourselves stewards of the balance sheet.
43:44
Um, we very much have, you know, been methodical about the way we've taken on any debt that we've taken on and how we've grown the company.
43:51
Um, it is a capital intensive business, especially with you, you're dealing with assets that are worth obviously millions and millions of dollars.
43:58
Um, so [clears throat] I think there's been an approach in the industry to to grow either organically or to start taking on money.
44:08
And some have done it really well and others have not truthfully.
44:10
Um, and and I think what you learn from it is you want to make sure that you grow in a very intelligent and smart way.
44:18
So um, we have 350 aircraft, but uh, the the thing about our model is is that a lot of our consumers are the ones that are purchasing the model.
44:28
We pre-ell most of our shares.
44:30
So while we carry some debt on the balance sheet, a good bulk of the the fleet itself is actually owned by our consumers.
44:39
>> And so we have 350 aircraft now.
44:39
We'll grow to another 50 aircraft this year to get to about 400.
44:44
Uh I wish I could get another 50 to be honest with you.
44:46
It's uh it's it's got an incredible demand and there's an incredible backlog uh in the private jet space.
44:52
But I I think that the other piece I would I would raise is unlike in say technology where you may have sort of write once and kind of uh sell at high margins and continue to iterate.
45:05
Um this is an assetbased business and it's not a proctor and gamble market, right?
45:11
There are millions of people that fly privately and I appreciate the uh the addiction piece and and how it's gotten the exposure.
45:18
Um, in fact, what's interesting about that is is the the finishing touch to what I was saying is we've retained a lot of those folks.
45:24
So, they didn't go away, right?
45:26
They they came in and they got Yeah. 100%.
45:28
I just I'm finishing your sentence basically, which is they definitely stayed.
45:34
>> And so, so we have, you know, a back we have people on a wait list for certain aircraft.
45:38
Our fleet and our complexion of our fleet has changed.
45:40
We've gone from, you know, sort of light to super mid.
45:44
Now, we're very much into the large cabin aircraft.
45:46
Uh, we announced the G700 program last year exclusively.
45:49
We just announced the Gulfream G500 program.
45:54
Uh, we're up 60% year-over-year on transatlantic flying.
45:58
So, we've moved from a 48 contiguous state, you know, sort of entity to one that's truly global now.
46:05
And capital, institutional capital has helped us to do that, right?
46:10
We have we have great banking relationships.
46:11
We've we've debated going public.
46:14
If you go back in our history, you'll see that we we debated that opportunity.
46:17
Um but in in reality, we have access to capital.
46:20
We want to we want a a business that, you know, um we'll do 350,000 flight hours this year. We're profitable.
46:28
Um so I think that, you know, we've had an opportunity to to really, you know, um grow the business and and it has evolved over time for sure.
46:38
How uh how is the sort of commercial sector and trends there?
46:44
You have, you know, p uh the sort of last generation of pilots, the pilots that never got addicted to doom scrolling on social media while while flying.
46:54
You know, the you have aging aircraft.
46:58
It feels like uh uh I I would say like commercial aviation just feels like it's getting less safe.
47:06
I don't know if that's actually true, but that's how that's how how it feels.
47:11
>> Certainly been lots of headlines >> and I feel like that is a that's also a tailwind.
47:15
Is that am I do I have a good read there?
47:18
Is that part of the psychology of people that are choosing uh to go the to go the charter route?
47:26
>> Well, I won't speak for an airline or or their safety levels or anything of that nature, but what I would tell you is is that commercial aviation is probably the best marketing force that we have in private aviation, right?
47:35
in that it has degraded over time and you can see it in various ways.
47:41
Now, some of that is not on a company.
47:43
Some of that has things like government shutdowns as an example that really help drive some of those things.
47:49
So, the nice thing about private aviation is is that it's built on alternative airports.
47:54
So, I I think in the US uh 500 commercial airports, 70 are really the ones that bear the brunt of most of the volume.
48:02
private probably does 7% of the volume amongst those 70 at most.
48:08
So we're really, you know, going by those those big hubs.
48:10
And so when something like a government shutdown happens, we are a classic alternative now for people uh that that want to be able to trust that they can go from point A to point B.
48:20
I would say service, you know, um economic pressures, uh you see in Europe, you've got some distressed uh commercial carriers here right now.
48:29
Uh, so yeah, I I I think your read on the evolution of commercial and there are some fine commercial airlines, don't get me wrong.
48:38
I don't want to just slander my my aviation brother. >> I said it first. >> You did.
48:43
I And and so >> it's just something and again it wasn't it's not even like as factbased as it is like a as a as a feeling. Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
48:51
and and and and but it's true like we definitely see folks that and now look I don't compare us to commercial based on you know costs and such but I would tell you that that you know you do see people that when something happens whether it it it it's a co it's a you know I need to make sure the flight makes you know gets me there whatever it is whatever that driver is we tend to be a really good force for them to to kind of rely on.
49:16
I want to talk about the F1 partnership.
49:19
We recently had a an F1 uh reserve driver on the show and he was saying that he will often fly >> I think it's Saturday after practice back to HQ and do a night of sim racing to do basically like more testing and then take a flight back.
49:41
and he's doing that all uh all commercial and he has to be ready to uh fly uh or not not fly but actually drive the car the next day if he's called up.
49:52
Uh sounded like uh sounded pretty rough uh rough conditions for somebody that's expected to be driving that fast around a racetrack.
49:58
So excited to hear that you guys are working with Formula 1.
50:03
>> Yeah, I I would tell you I am too.
50:03
I'm a fan and and a bit of a fanboy at the at the same time, right?
50:08
And um I I I think that you know the the partnership we're going to be the we are the official designated the official private aviation partner of F1 now and you know that that comes with a lot of trust.
50:19
We've been working with them for a while.
50:20
Uh but we will be flying their executives.
50:23
We do have drivers that fly with us.
50:25
Um the scenario you just outlined that's classic. That's not just F1. That's business, right?
50:31
it it's the ability to be, you know, refreshed and ready to go the next day and and and really think about time management and, you know, we all run off that same watch, but private really allows you to manipulate it.
50:44
That's an important factor.
50:44
And then, you know, this then evolves into our customer base, which what we're seeing is we're now kind of entering this economy of experiences versus this economy of things.
50:57
And so a lot of the folks in our base and the reason we do partnerships is we try to differentiate in the air that incin experience that in-flight experience we have artisal interiors.
51:08
Uh we we tend to say that uh other jets are gray.
51:12
They're either gray or beige inside.
51:15
We tend to customize our our interiors.
51:17
Uh we we try to deliver, you know, high-speed inflight entertainment with partnerships like Starlink, uh with Loi.
51:23
you know, we do a lot of things to really make that that experience as frictionless and as enjoyable as possible regardless of what you're doing.
51:31
Um, and so two, we're trying to do that now outside the cabin and give you, you know, only in Flexjet type of experiences.
51:39
And as a luxury brand, uh, we tend to have folks that, you know, would like to seek unique experiences with other luxury platforms.
51:49
And as a global brand now, right?
51:49
So I was talking about the evolution of the company.
51:53
We're now globalizing Flexjet.
51:56
There's no better partner, right?
51:58
There's there's 20 plus countries involved in racing uh for F1.
52:00
So it it tends to serve as a really great canvas for us to create very unique experiences for the folks that have that affinity within our base. >> Very cool.
52:11
on on the procurement front.
52:14
Uh we talk with a lot of we spend all of our time uh I wish we got to spend more of our time talking with folks in in private private aviation.
52:22
It's sort of [laughter] a little treat a treat for us, but we spend most of our time talking with you know technology founders, entrepreneurs, hardware uh founders, etc.
52:30
Um, and uh, I'm curious how you think about procurement and uh, around planes and and new technologies that will be coming online, you know, 5 10 years out.
52:44
I'm sure you're one of the uh, I'm sure you're an important >> person to pitch, you know, advancements in in aviation on on the uh, actual plane side and and other parts of the stack.
52:57
But what's your framework for evaluating, you know, new technologies?
53:02
I'm sure you want to stay uh on the frontier, but at the same time, you're balancing safety, reliability, uh, you know, and and managing the fleet overall.
53:14
>> Yeah, it's a great question.
53:14
So, I actually just saw something that said that I think like 58% now of orders that are starting to come in through OEMs are really for fractional markets.
53:22
So, we've become a big buyer, to your point, in in in fleet buying.
53:26
Um, one of the things that we do, and I credit our chairman, Ken Ricky, on this is he's big on being involved in the business before you're getting into the business in some respects, right?
53:37
So, when the EV tall movement came uh and and everybody thought that we were going to be the Jetsons inside of 5 years, um, it was important to understand for us short distance aviation.
53:48
So, we understand fixed wing, we understand long haul flying, we understand a lot of different things, but short distance is really interesting.
53:54
And so we actually at the beginning of COVID invested in vertical lift and helicopters.
53:59
And so we bought two different, you know, twin engine companies, one in London and one in New York that was a long-standing company.
54:08
And we did that specifically to get the expertise and the model and understand how to work within short distance aviation.
54:14
So that's like, you know, kind of table stakes.
54:16
can we understand how that's going to function and fit into our world first and understand safety and understand all the things that are rigorous and important to us.
54:24
The next is um we screen a lot of people and so uh we have made some announcements though where we've gone through some high evaluations and it'll take some time uh that we don't have here but uh you know we did uh order over 200 EV talls we have another group that we're working with uh we just recently announced that and um is doing a lamp when it comes to you know its ability to um to fly.
54:55
So we we we have a future ahead of the future of aviation.
55:02
So uh actually they're here in the UK.
55:04
So we we're pretty good I think in terms of screening thinking and then thinking about how it would meet the needs of our consumer and fit in our brand.
55:14
But you're right, the most important aspect of it is is we just don't take someone's word for it.
55:18
We're going to want to understand, you know, fly in the aircraft, understand it, and give all the rigor to it.
55:24
Um, we've got 1500, you know, product support and maintenance people that are part of our entity.
55:30
So, there's no form of due diligence that we can't do, whether it's just an M&A transaction or it's actually the future of flight.
55:36
And and we go pretty deep, but we are active and we have a pretty good track record of investing in the future.
55:42
Well, congratulations on the F1 partnership.
55:47
Thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us.
55:49
>> We'll see you in the paddic >> and have a anytime.
55:50
And I'll definitely see you in the paddic. Yeah, let's go.
55:54
Great to have you on, Andrew. Come back on anytime. >> Thanks, guys. Appreciate your time. >> Have a good one.
55:59
>> Let me tell you about Shopify.
55:59
Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents.
56:08
Our next >> feel like I'm going to need these for the next one.
56:11
We definitely going to need those because we have the co-founder and CEO of Together AI in the waiting room.
56:16
Let's bring him in to the TV van, Ultradom Pimple. How are you doing? Welcome to the show. >> Doing great.
56:22
Thanks for having me on the show, guys.
56:25
>> Thank you so much for taking the time on such a busy day.
56:27
Um, please >> first time, right? >> Yeah, I think so. Right.
56:31
>> This is the first time.
56:31
Yes, I've been a fan of the show.
56:33
So, >> took us took us way too long. >> Long overdue. So much to talk about.
56:35
Uh, first, uh, give us the news.
56:38
I want to hit the gong and then I have a million questions for you.
56:42
So tell us what happened.
56:44
>> You know our our business which really serves uh open weights models and powerful AI at dramatically cheaper costs has been growing tremendously.
56:55
We've grown uh you know uh from 100 million in bookings to 1.
56:58
2 million over the last year and we raised $800 million in our TV to expand. >> Congratulations. [applause] >> Thank you.
57:08
uh a Ramco Ventures fascinating partner makes a lot of sense with energy.
57:12
Um but I'm so interested in um what is ju just the state of open-source AI.
57:19
There's been two narratives.
57:22
One was uh there was this chart that showed closed source growing a little bit faster seemed like there was an acceleration and open-source was going a little bit slower.
57:30
I believe this was from the government.
57:32
They published this the US government.
57:34
Uh, but then most recently with GLM 5.
57:36
2, it feels like open source is catching up again.
57:41
Has there been as much of a roller coaster race, a roller coaster ride inside the company as it feels like from the outside or what has progress felt like in your business throughout the last couple years?
57:53
Yeah, I I I I would say we one I would say open source models have really closed the gap with closed models and this is why you're seeing all this excitement around uh open open weights models and this has been a process that's been going on.
58:06
So I you know the the the first and the second derivatives of progress have been have been you know the gap have been negative and I think now you're at a point where the the open weights models are able to really address the largest workloads of agentic long range uh you know long horizon tasks that have been deployed in enterprises over the last 6 months.
58:31
So there is one a real need for these uh models.
58:33
there is uh you you know a real reason to sort of try to optimize your cost because you're trying to deploy AI in a much broader sense now it's doing real intellectual labor and making a big difference to uh you know the progress in in companies so I I think there's a demand side of it which has uh uh shown up in the last 6 months and the progress in open models now they are very very uh you comparable to the closed models.
59:01
How do you think the uh developer landscape of the open-source models ecosystem will evolve?
59:07
Because uh as I sort of understand the history, Mark Zuckerberg made a big splash.
59:14
He's going all in on open source with Llama, some really solid progress there.
59:20
Eventually, it stopped making sense to give everything away for free.
59:23
Went a little more closed source.
59:25
We'll see where that goes.
59:26
But then China as of last year just deepseek moment Alibaba Quen there's so many different Chinese developers and is that a cultural decision?
59:39
Are they just pro- open source broadly?
59:42
Is this geopolitical strategy?
59:44
Uh what is the motivation and how long do you think that opensource stance will last or will we see China go closed source at some point?
59:55
You know, I would say that it's really a function of the structure of the market.
59:58
In China, that market is structured around open models.
1:00:00
All these companies are making revenue.
1:00:03
They provide APIs, they provide applications, right?
1:00:06
They they are they are businesses that are uh competing with each other and are generating revenues and the structure of that market is models are released in in the open and the structure of the market in the US so far has been the models are closed.
1:00:22
closed. uh so I I I think there's a little bit of game theory to that which uh is uh you know these markets are sort of set in this particular shape but I I think at this point things are changing quite a bit you you have you know an extreme demand for tokens tokens are
1:00:39
becoming like a fundamental resource like energy or capital or bandwidth and you have a more modular market that's forming right so you can you have harnesses where you can take uh uh you you can point them to a closed model or an open model and they continue to work. So you're starting to get this market
1:00:56
So you're starting to get this market formation which allows a place for open models and I think what that will turn into is you will see more open models in the United States.
1:01:06
I you know we're talking to many companies who are working on uh very ambitious road maps uh for producing open models.
1:01:13
So there's just going to be uh the existence of that market worldwide.
1:01:17
When you talk to customers, are they almost always coming to you with a workflow that they prototyped with a closed model, prototyped with a frontier model, and they've got it working and now they want to cost optimize or do you talk to customers who are just so allin on open source they don't even care about the frontier?
1:01:38
Uh because I've seen you know there's companies when you know GBD4 came out they were like oh I this can process uh OCR documents and just organize text data very effectively.
1:01:52
Now we're in a coding boom that but we get these spiky intelligence unlocks every once in a while and then the [clears throat] cost ramps up because you're like ah I can use this everywhere and then people want to cost optimize.
1:02:04
But our c our company's typically coming to you with a uh a workflow that they've already prototyped and they feel like is confident they want to match the performance but at a better price.
1:02:15
>> Yeah, I I I would say they're both use cases.
1:02:17
There are companies that have prototyped something with closed models.
1:02:21
Once they deploy it into production, they realize this is like is absurdly expensive.
1:02:26
expensive. they can't quite scale this and deploy it into the uh you know deploy it into their companies and they start benchmarking open models and uh I think they're increasingly finding that uh open models have become pretty strong
1:02:40
on these benchmarks and and there's a sort of substitution uh uh happening and and there's really a stampede of this uh that companies uh starting from AI natives now to digital natives are deploying open models at uh you know really really rapidly. You also have
1:02:56
You also have other use cases.
1:02:58
I think you know companies that have sensitive data, this is really their strategic asset in in many ways.
1:03:06
It's uh uh it's what the what the intellectual property of the company is and there is increasing amount of discomfort especially as the models are getting smarter that by using closed models they're sort of giving away their strategic advantage by teaching the model how to run their business.
1:03:22
And I I think that's becoming a bigger threat and we're starting to see companies more sort of philosophically choosing open weights and AI that they control.
1:03:32
And I I I expect we'll see more of this.
1:03:36
>> How are you thinking about regulation? It feels like GLM 5.
1:03:38
2 who sort of reignited this open-source debate where you have anthropics mythos and fable sort of held up back and forth banned unbanned released uh released to just Americans released to just a few companies uh and open going through some similar stuff with 5.
1:03:55
6 six soul and some other models.
1:03:57
And uh all of those debates, they make sense in isolation to me.
1:04:02
I I don't want a cyber weapon or a boweapon if if it's capable of that.
1:04:05
Uh at the same time, if you could just go on Hugging Face and download the bioweapon creator, uh I probably don't care that there's a closed source version of that.
1:04:17
It's a different discussion.
1:04:18
How have you dealt with the regulatory questions that are increasingly popping up around AI safety and AI limitations?
1:04:27
I I think these are important questions and you know the one of the things that we feel is uh these models especially open weights models they're software right you can you can inspect them you you can benchmark them you can study them in a way that you can't do with
1:04:42
those models >> and that is going to become a much more important aspect of regulation where we uh you know frankly I think some of these risks um are are could be real they could be rhetoric they it you know we just don't know because >> there isn't good quantification of this
1:05:01
which I think is going to become more and more important for us to understand how to you know think about a regulatory framework that uh is sensible and is uh you know if these models do become dual use how do we sort of protect uh uh you know protect against bad effects of
1:05:20
these models while leveraging the value that they create I mean they're immensely valuable this is the most transformative technology ology we've had uh ever and uh we you know we really want to make it abundant rather than uh limited to a few people. >> Completely agree. >> Completely agree.
1:05:37
>> Do American labs focus on open source?
1:05:40
Are they fundamentally disadvantaged because they're going to have more scrutiny around distillation? Hm.
1:05:49
>> Yeah, I think I I think that's a that that's a good question and you know I would say uh uh uh perhaps the role of distillation is overstated these models if you look at what's happening >> saying it's code.
1:06:04
>> Yeah, I I I think it it is a little bit because you you know the the the technical details of it.
1:06:10
technical details of it. you you do need the probabilities of tokens and all the information that APIs don't provide to do effective you know on policy distillation a lot of the recent improvements are because of reinforcement learning and the fact that
1:06:28
you AI has become an industrial platform you have a transformer architecture that if you look at any of these models they look very similar inside so you have this common architecture you have training tools you have RL tools that have become standardized, which is why you're seeing this like rapid improvement. You can now start with
1:06:45
You can now start with machinery that works instead of having to invent it.
1:06:49
And I think you will see that American labs that are building models will have more success than the labs that tried to do this two years ago. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. >> Makes sense. >> Makes sense.
1:07:00
>> Thank you so much for coming on the show.
1:07:01
Congratulations to the whole team.
1:07:02
>> Congrats to the whole team. Yes.
1:07:02
And have a great rest of your day. Have a great July 4th. Have a great weekend. We'll talk to you soon. >> Come back on soon. >> Thank you. Talk to you soon. >> Have a good one.
1:07:10
Let me talk about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI.
1:07:11
Their business is securing it.
1:07:14
Crowdstrike secures AI and stops breaches.
1:07:16
Our next guest is Isaiah Taylor.
1:07:20
Third, fourth, fifth time on the show.
1:07:22
We're very excited to have Isaiah back on the show.
1:07:26
How are you doing, Isaiah? Good to see you. >> Doing great. How's it going, John? Jory. It's been a little bit.
1:07:31
>> It has been too long, but you have big news. You've been cooking. Break it down for us.
1:07:36
What's the latest and greatest with AR atomics?
1:07:37
I don't think you can be holding the gong right there, Jordy.
1:07:42
There's no fundraising yet.
1:07:42
We're just uh we're turning reactors on.
1:07:43
So, this is not the best reason ever.
1:07:48
Anybody will give you money. Come on.
1:07:48
I guess I have All right. All right. Let's go. >> What happened?
1:07:53
What's the latest >> Oh man, we uh we had a really fun day yesterday here on the site right now. Not screen.
1:08:01
This is the W 250 reactor. Yeah.
1:08:04
>> Uh our first power reactor.
1:08:04
And yesterday we made electricity for the first time.
1:08:08
We became the first nuclear startup to ever make electricity >> and we did it with Nvidia.
1:08:12
We powered an NVIDIA Spark. It was a lot of fun. >> That's remarkable. >> Big milestone. >> So reset for us.
1:08:18
I mean, you're not here announcing fundraising, but how big is the team?
1:08:22
Have you outgrown Elsa Gundo yet?
1:08:24
Where are you going next?
1:08:24
Are you expanding to Utah?
1:08:26
Break it all down for us.
1:08:29
>> We have outgrown outgrown Little Gundo, unfortunately.
1:08:32
But uh I mean this is this is the way of of all great startups, right?
1:08:35
SpaceX started in Elsa Gundo and then they moved out to Hawthorne. We did the same thing.
1:08:39
Our current facility is a couple miles south of the Hawthorne uh SpaceX facility there.
1:08:44
Um we're also here in Utah.
1:08:44
This site that I'm on right now is Valor Atomics at San Rafll out in the Utah desert in uh in beautiful Emer County. >> Cool.
1:08:52
[clears throat] And so what is the pitch to the AI industry? How big can you go? How fast?
1:08:59
How parallelized do you want to be?
1:09:02
What is the product that you're selling beyond just electricity?
1:09:07
>> Yeah, I think speed, right?
1:09:07
Speed and scale is is really what we're selling.
1:09:11
Um, we believe that nuclear has some fundamental scaling advantages over something like gas.
1:09:16
And the climate impact is a big part, right?
1:09:18
Everyone wants to figure out how we can scale AI without a huge climate impact, but that's only one portion of it.
1:09:23
The other problem with gas generation is it has really backed up turbines and it also has nack gas infrastructure that has to scale along with it, right?
1:09:31
And we're kind of running out of places where you can just plop down a turbine without having to go and lay pipeline.
1:09:36
So what we're doing here is with uranium, you have one truckload that delivers an entire year's worth of fuel, right?
1:09:43
And that gives you a lot more flexibility on where you build the reactors, on how big you can scale those sites.
1:09:49
And so nuclear has this fundamental advantage we believe in in scale.
1:09:53
Now there's a lot of technological maturity built up in uh natural gas.
1:09:57
And so that's where we need to go and catch up.
1:10:00
So I think right now where Valor is, we just turned on our first reactor.
1:10:03
I would put this at like you know Falcon 1 days, right?
1:10:07
We just launched a rocket and now we go go build a better one and start scaling that.
1:10:10
So that's kind of where we are.
1:10:12
But you know I think these things can happen faster than you might think.
1:10:16
>> Talk about the the timeline that you guys were were working around.
1:10:18
Uh, it was pretty ambitious when it was set at some point last year, I believe. >> Yeah. So, May of last year. Yeah.
1:10:25
May of last year, the executive orders were signed.
1:10:29
I came on the day that the executive orders were signed and we said, "We're going to uh we're going to build a nuclear reactor and turn it on by July 4th, right here on this site.
1:10:35
At the time, the site was a patch of grass." >> Yeah.
1:10:41
>> And uh July 4th was the deadline.
1:10:41
Look, Valor hit it out of the park.
1:10:44
Uh there's a lot of awesome companies in that pilot program, but if you actually look at the EO, uh Valor just absolutely smashed it.
1:10:52
I mean, we didn't just go critical, we went critical twice and we went to thermal power operations and we went to electricity production and we did it outside of the National Labs.
1:11:01
Um so we we really just hit it out of the park in every every dimension and I'm incredibly excited and proud of the Valor team.
1:11:09
>> So you're moving very quickly.
1:11:09
You're outside of the National Labs.
1:11:11
outside of the National Labs. uh what does integration with the national labs with regulators with approvals for designs uh what is the state of uh that obviously the government's moving faster here but are there still approvals that you're looking forward to uh hitting in
1:11:29
terms of milestones >> yeah and look you know we love the national labs we actually did go critical inside the national labs back in November in the novaore but you have to graduate from that right you have to learn how to take a bare patch of dirt that's not you know licensed nuclear and get it ready to to go nuclear. So that's
1:11:43
So that's kind of step two, right?
1:11:45
Step three would be the NRC, a commercial regulator.
1:11:48
But these things are really driven by team experience, right?
1:11:52
They're they're driven by experience, by good engineering, by test data.
1:11:54
And that's really what we focus on, and it's why we've gone to power in this plant.
1:11:59
When we go to the NRC, we're going to go to the NRC with a lot of data behind us, empirical test data that we've gathered right here on this unit.
1:12:07
>> Talk to us about Whoa. What's that?
1:12:12
>> [laughter] >> We've uh we've we've played with these microphones to figure out how we can not get the background noise, but uh yeah, that's like [laughter] it. It's real.
1:12:20
Um talk about uh uh community engagement when you're uh proposing building a nuclear reactor.
1:12:29
I I recently saw a crazy stat that uh that the average American when pled, there was some, you know, Pew Research study that said, "I'd rather have a nuclear reactor in my backyard than a data center.
1:12:40
you're going to be doing both.
1:12:42
>> Says, "How about both? >> How about both?"
1:12:43
But but I imagine that you have more reps in in terms of community engagement, in terms of messaging and communication than some of the data center builders.
1:12:51
They were like, "Look, we've been building, you know, the the the building that holds your Netflix categor catalog for decades with zero push back.
1:12:59
Now all of a sudden, we're getting an immense amount of push back."
1:13:02
You had push back on day one. You were born in it.
1:13:04
you you know people have been pushing back against nuclear for decades molded by it.
1:13:08
So what what are you saying if you go if you wind up in a random town about why it's a good it's good to have velar in town.
1:13:20
Yeah, I mean it's such an interesting inversion, right?
1:13:22
Suddenly people are looking at us as the nuclear industry trying to figure out how do we do community engagement?
1:13:27
Well, that's really not what you would expected a couple years ago.
1:13:30
And I would say that Valor has really taken community engagement just an order of magnitude more seriously than any other nuclear company so far.
1:13:37
And it's because again we care about scale.
1:13:39
We're not going to be able to do you know what we want to do at the scale we want to do it if we don't start right with the community.
1:13:46
So, one of the big things that we do is when we come into a community, we don't come in after the project and say, "Oh, here's how you get to know us cuz we're in your backyard now."
1:13:54
We actually go to the the community first, community leader, city council, county commissioners, and we say, "Here are the cost benefits, right?
1:14:00
Here's what we think is awesome about it.
1:14:02
Here are the potential trade-offs. What do you think?"
1:14:05
And we try to get people to engage with it a lot before we go and actually do something.
1:14:09
That's what we did here, and it's it's paid off really well.
1:14:12
We talk to members of the community all the time. We host events.
1:14:15
We host barbecues and you know people are really excited to have us here.
1:14:19
What's really interesting about this is exactly like you said if you look at the surveys on nuclear versus data centers interestingly people are cool with the data center as long as you build a nuclear power plant first right but they want to make sure that there's power there which honestly makes sense.
1:14:32
I don't think people are wrong about that.
1:14:35
So we're really excited to engage >> uh it's very noisy.
1:14:38
People are worried about data center noise.
1:14:40
what are you doing to go down the list?
1:14:42
Because I'm sure on day one it was like just make sure it doesn't explode.
1:14:48
But now communities have a number of requests.
1:14:53
They want it to not be an eyesore.
1:14:53
They don't want it to be noisy.
1:14:55
They don't want it to shake the ground.
1:14:57
They don't want the data center to emit EMF or anything else.
1:15:00
H uh how many different check boxes are you trying to check with your development plans?
1:15:07
Yeah, look, I think one of the big things that people miss about where data centers are placed is that they are being placed where there is gas, right?
1:15:14
They have to burn gas and they have to spin turbines.
1:15:15
And so you have these weird placements of data centers where look, we could put a data center anywhere you have fiber, but they don't want to have to go build new gas infrastructure.
1:15:23
infrastructure. So we see a huge opportunity here to scale gas uh sorry to scale data centers out where look we're 100 250 ft from uh you know another industrial plant that's down the road but [clears throat] we're a mile from people who are trying to sit in their backyard and don't want to hear a
1:15:39
noisy cooling fan and nuclear allows you to do that right because we're a little bit agnostic uh about where we put the reactor we can ship uranium anywhere so we think that's a big advantage for us >> I love it congratulations thank you so much for coming on the show >> incredible progress Incredible progress and can't wait to talk to you soon. Have Have a good one. >> Have a great one. Cheers. >> Goodbye.
1:15:58
Let me tell you about MongoDB.
1:16:00
What's the only thing faster than the AI market your business on MongoDB? Don't just build AI.
1:16:04
Own the data platform that powers it.
1:16:06
And let me also tell you about Figma agents. Meet the canvas.
1:16:11
Your AI agents can now create and modify your Figma files with design system context.
1:16:16
Our next guest is Dean Ball.
1:16:19
You know him, you love him.
1:16:19
He's been on the show many times.
1:16:21
and now he's part of OpenAI.
1:16:23
We're very excited to have Dean Ball joining us. How are you doing? How are you settling in?
1:16:27
How are you introducing yourself these days? >> Uh well, doing great. Thanks for having me on.
1:16:33
So, I started OpenAI on Monday.
1:16:35
So, technically speaking, I'm still uh uh you know, senior fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation. Cool.
1:16:41
>> But yeah, no, it's uh it's very exciting. >> Yeah.
1:16:43
Yeah, it's it's uh what what are you uh uh Monday?
1:16:45
What what are you hitting the ground running on? What is top of mind?
1:16:50
Is it entirely uh >> well be before that I want to I want to uh I want to just jump in and ask has this year been crazier or less crazy than you expected when it comes to the interaction between West Coast Labs and DC?
1:17:13
>> That's a good question.
1:17:13
Um it has been about as crazy as I would have predicted. Mhm.
1:17:21
>> But I didn't expect I I would say like it's like I would have intellectually predicted it, but actually seeing it happen in the real world >> is crazier than I could have imagined.
1:17:33
And in some ways it is all falling together in ways that I could have never predicted.
1:17:38
I'd say like the general intensity of it all is about what I would have guessed, but um a lot of the specifics are are both surprising and funny in ways I would have never guessed.
1:17:48
>> What's the funniest Um well I mean there's just a certain comedic aspect like the fact that so much of it is so personal right um the fact that there's like you know not to say it's all personal but the fact that some big chunk of what's going on here is that individual actors in this you know between the government and the industry like Daario you know they don't like each other right
1:18:10
>> um there's that element of it I think um uh you [clears throat] know one thing I wouldn't have expected is for so many people for an industry, for a government, for an administration that positioned itself as being so friendly to AI, the fact that the people who actually are are like closest to advising on the tech policy, at least some of them, um, are actually quite hostile to the frontier AI industry. >> That's another thing that would have
1:18:36
>> That's another thing that would have surprised me.
1:18:37
You had David Sachs today tweeting basically about how the frontier AI industry in the United States is not a legitimate business.
1:18:42
You know, it should just all be open source models and you can't trust, you know, like these kinds of things. That surprises me. That surprises me.
1:18:48
Uh and I I find that to be an interesting dynamic I wouldn't have guessed. >> Interesting. Yeah.
1:18:54
I I I've I've been tracking it where uh we've noticed that uh AI stories have jumped from the business section of the Wall Street Journal to the front page to the world news section.
1:19:04
news section. And that's a very like visceral I I don't know if it's quantitative or qualitative but yes uh when you intellectually uh think about the the various showdowns and negotiations uh you imagine them as way more quantitative and more just like of
1:19:20
course if it hits this threshold of capability then the reaction will be this and that will trigger this and uh you can step through all those but you forget that every single one of those decisions is going to be a personal interaction between several people. So
1:19:30
So it has been an odd time >> Jordy. Yeah. Yeah.
1:19:34
And then dynamic of doesn't matter how fast technology changes like people stay the same, right?
1:19:42
They take things they take things personally and yeah and you know interpersonal dynamics end up driving a lot of behavior.
1:19:50
>> How have you been processing the the Sorry, please go. >> Oh no.
1:19:54
I was just going to say the funny thing though about the last month or so is that you know the truism in AI policy is that the technology moves so much faster than the policy.
1:20:01
And I think we might actually be going through the maybe the one period where the policy is actually moving faster than the technology.
1:20:09
Uh like you know uh my friend my friend Tim Hang from from FAI um and great Twitter account to follow um said he took Daario's essay which was uh you know policy on the AI exponential and changed it to AI on the policy exponential.
1:20:25
[laughter] >> Kind of feels that way. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
1:20:29
It's interesting because, you know, we've we've gone over at different points on the show uh what the fears around the internet uh were around the year 2000, right?
1:20:40
It was a lot of a lot of the same types of fear.
1:20:43
All information would be completely available to anyone, even bad actors.
1:20:48
It was a huge fear around job loss, you know, uh retail apocalypse instead of the SAS apocalypse, right?
1:20:57
Why would anyone go to why would anyone go to a store when you could just get a product delivered, >> you know, straight to your home?
1:21:05
>> Uh, and yet with that cycle, it wasn't like in 2000 in January, you know, DC was like, "Hey, like you can't you turn off your website uh for like a few weeks while we figure out whether or not this is going to, you know, uh do do something."
1:21:23
Um, and so same thing with social media.
1:21:27
Like you look at the reaction to social media now where people are like, you know, how many years in being like, whoa, this stuff seems like it could be like destroying the human race, you know, [laughter] like causing birth rates to collapse.
1:21:40
And it's like, okay, it took us 20 and and we're not even really, no one's really suggesting anything on a policy side with social media, right?
1:21:44
It's like, hey, here's this thing that could be a meaningful part of birth rate collapse.
1:21:50
And yet we're still like just fighting it out in local courts like is it addictive or not?
1:21:56
You know, it's like no there's no focus on it.
1:21:58
And so policy being being ahead of the technology for the first time at least in my lifetime is is meaningful. >> At least moving fast. Yeah.
1:22:09
At least moving very fast right now.
1:22:10
H how are you processing the various levels of like AGI pledness for from the different parties?
1:22:20
Because I I notice that uh you know you see the frontier capabilities like incredible uh just capabilities and feels like qualitatively new steps in terms of uh their capabilities in cyber bio and also just uh software development.
1:22:39
Um, and then you go on like Instagram and you see someone doing like the chat GPT40 voice and it's not this, it's that, talking about stochastic parrots and hallucination and drinking a jug of water and it's all very funny, but it feels wildly disconnected.
1:22:54
But then DC seems to be more in the middle.
1:22:58
But where is DC in terms of like their general uh level of like understanding the technology, fear of the technology, capability? >> Yeah.
1:23:08
Or an example that I think is funny, there'll be like, you know, somebody outside of tech doing a podcast and like a a businessman that's not in tech at all that I won't name, but is sort of somebody that people would maybe get a take from is like 90% of all jobs will be gone by 2029.
1:23:27
like a way way way way way more aggressive stance than even anybody that's like actually agi pill on >> in San Francisco, right?
1:23:38
So it's like it transfers so far that you have you have these people that >> don't even know they they don't know a single person at the labs.
1:23:45
They've not invested in a single >> AI, you know, any any of these companies that are actually at the frontier.
1:23:51
And yet they have this point of view that they're sharing really broadly that's just like so over the top and and uh unrealistic that uh it's it's honestly kind of funny. >> Yeah.
1:24:06
No, I mean I I think um I think DC is actually somewhat underrated in terms of how AGI pill it is.
1:24:12
Definitely it's you know there are there are some people um you know there's all sorts of people and all sorts of government.
1:24:21
It's not AGI build enough to be sure, >> but it's underrated like how out of touch people are because really like you know Capitol Hill is dominated by a bunch of and the White House too for that matter.
1:24:34
It's dominated by a bunch of highly online staffers in their 20s and early 30s, you know, kind of the the people that run the show in in a lot of ways in DC.
1:24:42
Um and so they they are exposed to um like the online discourse about AGI and they see all that and so there's there's some just like natural exposure to the ideas there uh that you you might not I I would say for example I find DC to be a considerably more agilled place than uh New York.
1:25:00
Um, for instance, I find New York to be, you know, New York is very fixated on a bunch of I I find that Wall Street is like persistently like 6 months behind >> um the conversation that's happening.
1:25:17
>> Yeah, they're more focused on like yogurt line timelines, you know, is it going to take, you know, 30 minutes or 2 hours to get >> yogurt thing?
1:25:25
I've never heard of this.
1:25:26
>> No, I mean I People are always waiting in lines in New York. That's what you do. around.
1:25:31
They're focused on a different You're focused on the wrong timeline maybe, but it's it's working for them. >> Mhm. >> Yeah.
1:25:38
And and like, you know, so I think I think DZ and SF are like very uh are both are both compared to almost everywhere else in the country quite a GI pill. SF obviously more so.
1:25:47
But look, governments all over the world are waking up now because I think both um so so you know the mythos fable thing in and of itself did [snorts] probably quite a bit to accelerate that.
1:26:02
But then the other important thing that happened that you have to keep in mind is there's a lot of people there's a lot of governments um across the world that fundamentally even though they might not admit it they do fundamentally look to to to America for sort of intellectual leadership and it's like there's been an argument of like well look this whole AI catastrophic risk thing like do we really need to take it seriously?
1:26:27
Well, it doesn't seem like the Americans actually take it seriously, right?
1:26:33
>> And that was a colorable argument until about two weeks ago. >> Mhm.
1:26:39
>> And um the US government placing export controls on a frontier model um was such a costly move and such a crazy and radical move to make.
1:26:49
It was clearly made out of a position of fear. Mhm.
1:26:55
>> Um, and everyone in the world saw that and like people wake up when they realize that the US government is genuinely scared about something that they wasn't previously on their radar, people do wake up to that.
1:27:06
Um, and so I think that both throughout, you know, our country and then also, um, throughout the world, you will see more people kind of taking the AGI pill.
1:27:14
Now, of course, the other thing about the AGI pill is that like a lot of um like a lot of psychoactive uh substances, it comes in waves.
1:27:24
Uh you know, it hits you in in various waves, and it's like, whoa, I'm really AGI filled now, but you don't even know how AGI filled you're going to be in a year, you know, it's like that.
1:27:33
>> But but there's also there's also the export control cope and I would love to know where you stand on that, which is that uh it's not fear-based.
1:27:37
It's economic and it's it's akin to well we don't want to we we also don't want to export Coca-Cola because you might figure out the secret recipe and it's just a good business and it might be purely about distillation and not necessarily that a foreign government would use this powerful model against you or for nefarious purposes but instead they might just steal the golden goose that you have cooking.
1:28:07
I mean, yeah, look, and and actually I'm kind of curious to see how it how it resolves.
1:28:12
Um, there is some future world where like for some combination of regulatory risks and safety concerns, but also competitive concerns like distillation, >> the frontier models are just like kind of like less visible to the public, you know, where it's like there's somewhat more friction involved in getting to the true frontier. >> Sure.
1:28:33
>> Um, friction and cost.
1:28:33
Um and and and that might happen downstream of market incentives just as much as it is of economic incentives.
1:28:40
But no, I don't think the government is playing any kind of five-dimensional chess here.
1:28:46
>> I really think this was about [laughter] >> all the way up to the sixth dimension string theory stuff. Um no, I don't think so.
1:28:55
I I really do think that they um that what it what it looks like on the tin is in fact what happened that they got, you know, there was legitimate fear.
1:29:05
Maybe that fear is to some extent um uh it might have been fear that was grounded in some degree of ignorance about the actual technical risks of AI and like what is a severe vulnerability versus what is not.
1:29:19
That seems quite likely to me and it also might have been a fear that was maybe um agitated somewhat by the political veilance through which anthropic is viewed.
1:29:30
I myself have argued this that like what anthropic does will inherently be seen as riskier and more dangerous and bad and what other their competitors do will be seen as like good and innovative because the government has a particular posture toward anthropic.
1:29:43
Um and >> yeah, but but at the the other side of that >> is like they have been the most vocal about the risks. >> Yes.
1:29:55
>> Well, of the labs outside of like the leas or yikowskis of the the world, but yes. >> Yes. >> Yeah.
1:30:00
I would say of of the labs they have been. >> Yeah.
1:30:03
Um, and like that's part of what started this whole animosity.
1:30:06
But now it's it's like this weird thing where I think political um political differences of opinion and political animosity from personal animosity color the fear as much as some degree of ignorance as much as the fear is also legitimate. Right.
1:30:23
So the fear is coming from like a bunch of different places and fundamentally the government's not wrong to be concerned. >> Yeah.
1:30:30
But uh but yeah, I think that's where the export controls basically came from.
1:30:34
>> What is your current view on nationalization?
1:30:37
There's there's there's rumors and news, but like is there >> you got a very colorful example about letting rats live in your in your [laughter] home >> in your walls? >> Yeah.
1:30:48
What do you have against rats?
1:30:48
You know, some people are dog people, some people are cat people, some people like rats infesting their walls, I guess.
1:30:56
Well, look, I've I've lived in a DC rowhouse with a basement, so I know all about rats.
1:31:00
[laughter] >> So, thumbs down on the rats, but thumbs down on rats in the wall is is the is the base is the base reason that nationalization gets talked about is sharing in the economic upside.
1:31:16
Is it about uh you know popularity and like rankings and polling?
1:31:22
Is it about control and having like a board seat almost like what are the problems that are solved when people even talk about nationalization as an option to any degree? >> I think it depends.
1:31:35
I I think I think different forms of of public equity solve different problems. Mhm.
1:31:42
>> The problem that I think is most interesting to think about is this sort of reality of our world today where um it's people don't feel a lot of agency and a lot of participation in the upside >> of technology.
1:32:01
So so like you know sometimes it is said that there's a lack of positive vision for the future technological vision.
1:32:08
I don't think that's quite true.
1:32:09
I think there's a lot of I mean I go on my Twitter feed and I see all kinds of crazy people building all kinds of amazing stuff and I love it.
1:32:15
That's the whole point of Silicon Valley.
1:32:17
You know, there's a lot of great visions for the future.
1:32:19
What we lack though is an institutional infrastructure that gives people average people a sense that they're going to play a role in it, right?
1:32:29
So, it's like, well, yeah, Elon Musk and Sam Alman and Dario Amade are going to cure a bunch of diseases and they'll be injecting exotic peptides into themselves on their Martian mansions while I'm stuck here, you know, with the the the the bottom dwelling class.
1:32:44
That's how a lot of people feel.
1:32:46
There's an inherent mistrust.
1:32:48
Um and so I think that a public equity stake where we take all these large firms and we take us you know some chunk of their equity and we um broadly distribute them you know for free right we give people the equity as a donation essentially or a gift I think that is a token um that it's a it's it's a symbol >> that the the technology industry wants to build a future in which Americans have broad participation.
1:33:18
And I think that I have problems with that.
1:33:20
You know, there are concerns I have with that.
1:33:24
There are concerns about the precedent that sets in particular.
1:33:25
Like if you're a successful company, do you suddenly just like have to give the American people your stuff? Like that seems weird.
1:33:33
>> Um but nonetheless, AI is a special industry.
1:33:35
We're living through a special time.
1:33:37
And there are versions of that arrangement that I can sort of get on board with.
1:33:41
Um where I get much more worried is when the government is taking an equity stake and putting that stake on its balance sheet. >> Sure.
1:33:51
>> Um there are a bunch of reasons for that.
1:33:53
Um one is just like the sort of picking winners effect >> of okay well now all of a sudden the government which sets policy has a direct financial interest in making sure that these particular companies win.
1:34:03
And I I think that's bad.
1:34:05
Um, I think there should be an opport, you know, >> I think there should be an opportunity for some lab or some other type of startup to come in and compete.
1:34:12
You know, I think that's great.
1:34:14
Um, competition to the frontier AI industry suddenly becomes like a threat to the government's balance sheet if you know in in in a world where the government has a big equity stake.
1:34:26
>> There's also corporate governance issues that I think are are pretty complicated.
1:34:30
And one other thing that like no one has explored at all.
1:34:33
>> Well, the other but >> Oh, go ahead.
1:34:35
>> Oh, go ahead. One one thing that stands out to me the most is like I don't think some American is going to feel like oh great I'm I really feel a part of this AI boom now that the government >> no >> has like a you know effectively an
1:34:51
account with like Morgan Stanley with a bunch of equity in it and even if you ran the numbers to divide it all up into for every household or citizen it's not it's an it's an amount that would effectively be equivalent to less than a stimulus check. And we've sort of like
1:35:06
And we've sort of like run that >> we've run the experiment of we've run the sort of like stimulus check experiment.
1:35:14
I think it did help a lot of people at the time, but it didn't it certainly didn't like fix anyone's life.
1:35:20
It wasn't like, okay, now I don't have to worry about rent next month or now I can buy a home, right?
1:35:27
It just didn't solve any of people's like fundamental >> problems.
1:35:30
And so I think >> and neither would this >> and and so the the direct like distribute the shares directly uh doesn't solve it.
1:35:38
Holding it on, you know, the the you know country's balance sheet doesn't solve it.
1:35:44
And so anyways, I'm I'm with you.
1:35:48
>> No, I mean I think it's like it's like what the what the stake gives people that if it's directly going onto the the household's balance sheet is again it's like a symbolic thing.
1:35:57
And look, it's also not like no money, right?
1:35:59
also not like no money, right? like I think 5% in meta, Microsoft, Anthropic, Open AI, SpaceX, Google, uh maybe Nvidia to you throw in um uh you know I think that divided by the number of American households if the AI industry also does
1:36:16
well if you sort of model out growth over the next 5 10 years like I think that's like >> I think that's five figures you know >> uh right like I think it's like you know it's again it's not life-changing sums of money for anyone I don't think but I think it's it's real money. Um,
1:36:29
Um, I think it's worth comparing to some of the ideas that people have around if somebody's trying to put a data center in your backyard and you go, "Well, I don't really want a data center in my backyard."
1:36:40
And then they say, "Well, what if you were going to get $800 a month >> for the next 10 years?"
1:36:45
And they're like, "Oh, okay."
1:36:47
That starts to be material because that is yes, >> an amount that is, you know, more significant, consistent.
1:36:53
there's like some element of like effectively cash flow which is what allows a household to thrive, right?
1:37:01
And so I've just consistently been a lot more excited about these more targeted proposals because I think every person in America has every right to ask, well, why would I want this data center in my backyard if I can still use Chat GBT or whatever AI tools I want if it's somewhere, you know, hundreds of miles from me?
1:37:22
Yeah, I'm I'm kind of with you about like that.
1:37:24
It's better to pay the directly affected like the data center communities, stuff like that, it's better to structure these kinds of things that way, but if you wanted to do a nationwide equity thing, I think it's not the craziest thing.
1:37:34
The one other thing about the government directly having a stake in addition to like I don't think it ends there.
1:37:41
>> I think the government will use that stake to control the companies in all sorts of ways.
1:37:45
And where that gets interesting is um if you combine an equity stake with effective government control over um all sorts of aspects of of Frontier Lab, you know, content moderation policy and various things like this, right?
1:38:00
Usage monitoring and stuff.
1:38:02
Um >> suddenly the Frontier Labs could begin to appear to be an instrumentality of the government.
1:38:11
>> And that is bad from a public perception perspective.
1:38:14
it's bad from a foreign, you know, sort of dealing with foreign governments, right?
1:38:17
Because people won't trust American AI as much.
1:38:19
But the other thing that like I guarantee you no one has thought about um uh is there's case law in America about like if a private corporation is doing something at like strong government compulsion.
1:38:38
Um there are times when that can >> uh intersect with like like basically the law will consider the company to be an instrumentality of the government and the kinds of laws that apply to government agencies suddenly apply to that private firm.
1:38:53
So, for example, like due process, the fifth and 14th amendment, the first amendment, like these kinds of things where like you don't have due process rights if you're like if you're mad that United Airlines canceled your flight, you don't have due process rights with respect to that.
1:39:05
But like you do have due process rights when you complain to the government about things, right?
1:39:12
>> Um and like uh uh those things are really really valuable.
1:39:14
They're also not the kind of things that we associate with like fastmoving firms. Yeah.
1:39:20
>> Um, and so [laughter] you're inviting like a whole host.
1:39:25
>> It's hilarious that like United Airlines is the fastmoving firm relative to like the DMV and and the AI labs are like a thousand times faster than the airline companies.
1:39:32
So we're going to leapfrog to DMV speed which is crazy to think about.
1:39:38
>> It could be like public utility is what I would say.
1:39:40
I would say. like and you would be I think people would be surprised how quickly the government continuing on the current policy trajectory but with a equity stake how quickly you have a colorable argument that the labs have essentially been turned into public utilities
1:39:56
>> and that they are basically government agencies and therefore they should be regulated you know government agencies are highly regulated entities in America right >> um and yeah I think that's uh um >> I think that's plausible and not something a lot people are thinking about. >> Yeah. Uh, walk me through the the how >> Yeah.
1:40:11
Uh, walk me through the the how you process the somewhat jokey Joe Weisenthal take of, okay, well, we've been through booms before, comp it to the railroad industry.
1:40:24
Uh, the railroad industry created a lot of value.
1:40:26
Uh, there's a consumer surplus.
1:40:28
You can buy a train ticket.
1:40:30
You can get something delivered.
1:40:33
And then uh yeah, if they make profit, that goes into the government's uh balance sheet via taxes and then that can be redistributed in a in a stimulus check, but it can also just be used for other things that the government does that hopefully the voters approve of.
1:40:49
And so the question of of like why is this time different?
1:40:55
Why does the normal mechanism of consumer surplus plus tax revenue not externalize all of the internal value that's created at the labs?
1:41:06
>> Oh, I think I think the normal process basically does create like an enormous amount of value.
1:41:12
Like I don't really think this any of this is like necessary in some sort of like >> like economically optimal sense at all.
1:41:19
Like >> no, I think the labs will create far more value than they capture.
1:41:22
Yeah, >> vastly more orders of magnitude more trillions of dollars, right? Tens of trillions.
1:41:28
Um, probably already have like created >> a minute.
1:41:32
I might say that there is a world where the economic flywheel of reinvesting profits effectively never ends and so you never see profits, you never see tax revenues or something.
1:41:47
This is a very bizarre scenario to play out, but you know, Amazon didn't pay taxes for a very long time, not because it was tax evating, just because it was reinvesting in things for a really long time.
1:41:57
And so, uh, you could say, well, in a scenario where you're in some crazy exponential takeoff and you're seeing trillions and trillions of dollars be recycled into these firms that are able to spend the capital immediately, then maybe the tax revenue falls off. I don't know.
1:42:15
We're now in sort of like >> Yeah.
1:42:16
But then you're but then you're hiring thousands of employees.
1:42:21
You have investors that are selling along the way. You have people >> Yeah.
1:42:24
And and the equity, right?
1:42:24
There's capital gains, right?
1:42:27
We have capital gains taxation, you know.
1:42:29
So all the individual employees who are making all this money, if things go well, they'll be paying lots of capital gains tax and ordinary income too when their shares get delivered to them.
1:42:38
Um so like there's a lot of tax piece for the government here.
1:42:43
Um, I think the real reason to do it, and this is again like giving the equity to the government does nothing. It does nothing.
1:42:48
It doesn't even solve a political problem for you.
1:42:52
The problem that we have is not so much that like the normal rules of economics aren't working.
1:42:57
I think that's very overrated, but it is true that the the institutional legitimacy is really fading.
1:43:08
And for a lot of people, the like institutional architecture of America is not legitimate anymore and they're perfectly comfortable discarding it. Mhm.
1:43:18
>> And I think that the way I would approach an equity stake is a way of communicating kind of directly with the American people and saying, you know, >> Mhm.
1:43:29
>> Um, [clears throat] we want you to feel a direct upside in what we're building here and and that we also want you to understand that we're building it together and you have a direct ownership stake in that.
1:43:39
>> It's funny you say that.
1:43:39
>> That's how I would view it.
1:43:39
It's funny you say that because I can't for the life of me identify who you're talking about when they say they don't they don't see legitimacy in the in the United States government because I see like the tear it all down opposed to the Trump administration leftwing say this is not a this is not a government that I want to participate in.
1:44:00
But then I also see a lot of the AI the a the AGI pled folks say like no like this is going to be way more powerful than any government.
1:44:08
uh this is not a legitimate institution in the face of the the god in a box that we're creating.
1:44:13
And so there's like oddly multiple categories of people that sort of fit in that bucket.
1:44:19
But I don't know if you uh have more thoughts on like where that pressure is coming from.
1:44:23
Well, what I think it is is like the idea it's it's really more like even stepping back just like the idea of the whole American economic order of you know >> we have private enterprise and the people who do well >> pay taxes and then we use that to redistribute and it's good that some people do really well and that whole thing like that's really gone, you know. >> Yeah. Uh in wild wild times. Um what else Jordan?
1:44:52
Do you have do you have something else to run through?
1:44:53
Uh I'm curious your like July 2nd 20 26 take on the state of open source.
1:45:04
>> I think that >> the my read is I think open open weights open source is great closed models are great.
1:45:13
We should have a lot of them.
1:45:13
I think >> all smart companies of the future will use both in massive amounts.
1:45:18
Uh but there's like you know this interesting depending on um depending on people's bags they have very different sort of like stances on on the issue even though I think that in general it's much more like use used a lot of both but um uh I think there's some debate around uh an open source an open source ban that is interesting.
1:45:47
It doesn't really it's hard to see how that would actually be possible, but um I'm curious >> your views.
1:45:57
>> I don't think the US is going to do an open source ban.
1:46:00
Um I I I I would be surprised by that.
1:46:02
surprised by that. Um now they will I would suspect that once an American open source model gets to the point that it poses you know mythos level capabilities however that ends up being defined um the government will review uh uh that model and when they review that model um
1:46:22
you know I I don't know it'll be interesting to see what happens right like are they do they just >> log on to it >> yeah well when it goes through there's going to be a deacto licensing regime for they're not going to care about whether it's closed or open source. The
1:46:34
The open source to be very clear like an open source model that hits a the mythos level capability is subject to a licensing regime like the government's licensing regime unless the government like explicitly says otherwise.
1:46:48
That is what I would assume if I were developing models.
1:46:51
Obviously not the Chinese models.
1:46:53
Um um I think it's possible that the Chinese government gets freaked out at some point and and decides to sort of you know um restrict open source.
1:47:01
They probably won't get rid of it.
1:47:04
They probably won't ditch the strategy altogether, but I could see them um you know downplaying it at the frontier.
1:47:12
>> And I guess uh if I were like if I were an organization planning things, I would want to use both, right?
1:47:23
If I would want to use both closed and open source, right?
1:47:24
If I were some enterprise, >> um I would probably not base my strategy on there being continued open source that is like particularly close to the American frontier. >> Mhm.
1:47:39
>> I really wouldn't base my strategy on that because I just see a lot of headwinds.
1:47:42
I see economic headwinds.
1:47:42
I see um and I see these sort of safety issues.
1:47:48
There are strategic issues.
1:47:50
There's all sorts of things that I would just like I'm not saying it will not like open source will go away. I don't think it will.
1:47:55
I think there are going to be some there are some ways in which open source is going to be very important as a kind of institutional technology like if we need to have a common adjudication system for example like a judge that sits in the middle of like court cases or like civil disputes or something like that.
1:48:12
You can imagine how uh if you wanted that to be like an AI system, you can imagine how it would be really good if it were open weight so that like everyone can audit the weights and we can all know that we're dealing with the same thing and blah blah blah blah blah.
1:48:26
That that's like really valuable.
1:48:28
Um but I would not necessarily bet on open source keeping pace.
1:48:32
Uh you know I don't think it actually has kept pace as many as as closely as a lot of people seem to think.
1:48:38
I think it's about a year behind.
1:48:40
Um and I wouldn't necessarily be surprised to see that gap widen over the next year. >> Yeah.
1:48:46
>> Yeah. The other interesting wrinkle is that there's uh there's a certain scale of of model size and intensity where uh you could effectively do arms control even on an open-source uh yes you know like AI system because you could just
1:49:02
detect like okay like yes it's open source you can download a hugging face but you need an entire data center to inference it meaningfully and so we control it at the rack level as opposed to as the weights level uh which is a whole different set of worms. We'll get
1:49:17
We'll get there somewhere.
1:49:19
Thank you so much for coming on the show.
1:49:20
Always great catching up and uh excited to be working with you soon. >> Have a good one. >> Yeah, guys.
1:49:26
>> Glad to be joining the team. >> See you. Cheers.
1:49:29
>> Let me tell you about console.
1:49:29
Console built AI agents that automate 70% of IoT, HR, and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets.
1:49:37
And let me also tell you about the New York Stock Exchange.
1:49:41
Want to change the world?
1:49:43
raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange.
1:49:45
Our next guest is Rob Taves from Radical Ventures.
1:49:47
[music] He's been on the show once, twice.
1:49:49
I think this is his third time. We'll bring him in.
1:49:53
[applause] How you doing, Rob? Good to see you. >> Thanks for having me. Great to be here.
1:49:57
Excited for uh appearance number three.
1:49:59
>> Yes, the three repeat.
1:49:59
Uh first, uh congratulations.
1:50:02
You just announced a deal, right?
1:50:03
You invested in a video company. Is this correct? >> That's right. Yeah.
1:50:06
Yesterday we announced 12 Labs's $und00 million series Bit.
1:50:11
Hit the gong for for >> Yeah, we gota get the 12 lab CEO.
1:50:15
>> Yeah, we really should.
1:50:15
But I do want to ask you about that. Hit that gong. 100 million. This is a big round.
1:50:18
[laughter] Serious B video super intelligence. Um >> nice nice gong. >> Fantastic.
1:50:26
Um but uh like like what is the what is the basic uh thesis for that investment?
1:50:33
Because uh you know Google has YouTube, they have TPUs, they have Deep Mind, Demis, they got everything.
1:50:40
It feels like a crazy from a basic perspective that you would want to invest in uh in a video model.
1:50:44
At the same time, like I wanted to generate a video, I go into I go into uh v V3, V4. I'm on the pro plan.
1:50:53
I generated like it was not 100% there.
1:50:56
There was still a lot of work to be done to get the video that I really wanted out of it.
1:51:01
And so like what is the opportunity? What's the broad thesis? >> Incredible exposure.
1:51:06
[laughter] That was a a distracting performance. Yeah. Uh so 12 Labs. Yeah.
1:51:12
So so we at Radical first invested in 12 Labs back in their seed round in 20121. Got it.
1:51:18
>> So we've been working closely with them for a while. >> Success.
1:51:21
>> And um and I think one important one important thing that's uh good to know about 12 Labs is they're not focused on video generation the way like >> Sora or VO or you know any of these startups are.
1:51:34
They're focused on video intelligence and video understanding. >> Okay.
1:51:38
So kind of a like a a simplification you can think of is like control F for video being able to understand like exactly what's happening in your video.
1:51:45
Uh understanding the concepts and the people and the dialogue and so forth and it's a very >> so if someone made like a three-hour live stream every >> randomly there's a guy waving two mallets around it could understand the context around that humor that I that I exhibited composure.
1:52:03
Honestly, I had never thought about this before and now that you mention it, TVPN would be like the ideal customer for 12 Labs.
1:52:08
We got to we got to get a media conversation going. >> I can't wait. I can't wait.
1:52:12
It'd be [laughter] awesome.
1:52:14
Um, but uh you more recently or or I guess less recently, but but more relevantly produced five more AI predictions for the year 2030.
1:52:26
What's your process for putting these together?
1:52:28
Uh, we were having a lot of fun with this.
1:52:30
we were reading them because one prediction stands out as like way crazier than the rest.
1:52:33
Uh and I'm interested to know if you know which one I'm thinking of.
1:52:38
Yeah, number three shocked me.
1:52:40
I I think it's number three.
1:52:42
Uh but but what what's the over process thesis? Is 2030 too far out?
1:52:44
Like I like how I like when you grade yourself after the year ends, but uh what's the overall process for working with Forbes? >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:52:53
You know, I I have a lot of fun putting these prediction articles together and they always generate a lot of interesting discussion and and often heated heated feedback from people that disagree.
1:53:02
Um, but big picture, I I write a column in Forbes about AI.
1:53:05
I've been writing it since 2019.
1:53:08
Every year since 2020, at the end of the year, I write an article with 10 predictions for the coming year in AI.
1:53:14
Um, and then the following December at the end of every year, I go back and grade all 10 of the predictions and say like which ones did I get right, which ones did I get wrong.
1:53:25
I try to be a pretty like conservative grader.
1:53:27
So if things are like on the border, I'll I'll uh, you know, I won't give myself credit for them.
1:53:31
But honestly, in a lot of ways, I >> Wow.
1:53:34
terrible venture capitalist.
1:53:36
[laughter] You got to go back and in the CMS edit the ones that didn't come true, delete them, and then take an endless victory lap around the ones that you got right.
1:53:46
[laughter] >> That's the way to do it. >> Yeah.
1:53:48
>> Rookie rookie VC rookie here. >> Yeah.
1:53:53
Honestly though, I it is in some ways it's more enjoyable.
1:53:55
I find the process of grading them more interesting because you see like you see how the world unfolded in ways that you didn't expect.
1:54:03
I think the reality is that like no one can predict the future to say the obvious and so I know a lot of these are going to be wrong.
1:54:08
So it's just a very interesting thought exercise.
1:54:10
Um and I a couple things that I really strive for is one to make them really like verifiable or falsifiable.
1:54:17
It's very concrete as opposed to just saying like agents will become more of a thing in the future like something that's like really like this company will acquire this company or like this you know this this CEO will be fired or something like that.
1:54:30
Um, and then I I also try to make them non-obvious and provocative, like things that people wouldn't originally think of.
1:54:36
Uh, so anyway, to your point, I usually do them every year.
1:54:39
I just published one that was five predictions for 2030.
1:54:42
Yep, which is obviously even more speculative thinking 5 years into the future, but it it was fun.
1:54:47
>> Okay, let's rip through them.
1:54:47
First one is Anthropic will be one of the largest and most important life sciences companies in the world.
1:54:53
We've obviously seen acquisitions.
1:54:56
the models are just getting naturally better at bio drug development.
1:55:01
At the same time, the big drug companies, they're not asleep at the wheel.
1:55:05
They're spinning up their own labs, their own partnerships.
1:55:06
Eli Liy has this Nvidia thing.
1:55:09
And I'm interested in what how does that look?
1:55:15
Because you could you could in in one way say uh Microsoft is one of the most important biotechnology companies in the world because a lot of tabular data stored in Excel.
1:55:24
Um, we saw with Mythos that there were incredible cyber security capabilities.
1:55:28
They ultimately had rolled out project glasswing, Palo Alto Networks, Nicash Aurora, you got Crowdstrike like they're still a cyber security company and then there's a very powerful model and there's a great partnership there.
1:55:42
I would call anthropic an incredibly important piece of the cyber security supply chain.
1:55:46
How does this what will this look like in 2030 for bio? >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:55:53
So you're right that horizontal technology providers like Anthropic or like Microsoft touch a a bunch of industries and are important to a bunch of industries.
1:56:00
I think in the life sciences specifically anthropic will go way beyond that.
1:56:04
I think that uh as I write in the article you know one of their incredible advantages is how super focused they are on particular areas and they the past few years they've been very focused on coding.
1:56:14
uh they've excelled at coding, they built the best coding models and that's let them grow so quickly in the coding arena with cloud code and so forth.
1:56:23
And the big question is like what's their next big focus area?
1:56:26
And it it's becoming increasingly clear that next big focus area will be biology and the life sciences.
1:56:32
It's something that Daario, the CEO, is personally very passionate about.
1:56:36
He's written about it a lot.
1:56:36
He he he's trained as a neuroscientist.
1:56:37
Um so I think they're going I think they're going to go all in on life sciences.
1:56:41
I don't think it's going to be like, you know, they're ser they're just serving the life sciences industry as one industry.
1:56:47
Um, and honestly, even in the past like week or two since I wrote that article, I feel like it's it's started to uh snowball more.
1:56:54
Like one big data point, one interesting data point was John Jumper, uh, who led the AlphaFold work at Deepmind and won the Nobel Prize alongside Demis just left deep mind to join Anthropic, which was an incredible get for them.
1:57:09
uh and really brutal loss for Google.
1:57:12
But I think that that's telling um and then just this literally two days ago or 3 days ago, Anthropic announced this new product that's like um clawed for for life sciences and they also announced they're actually going to start their own drug discovery program.
1:57:27
Um and the way they the way they phrased it cuz to your point like all the big pharma companies are their customers today.
1:57:32
The way they phrase it is like we're just going to focus on these like small orphan neglected drugs like they're not interesting to pharma companies anyway.
1:57:39
Okay, we just want to do it so that we can learn firsthand about the drug discovery process.
1:57:42
But I I think this is the first step and I I do think that over time Anthropic's ambitions are to to develop thermal drugs like essentially to eventually become a pharma company themselves.
1:57:52
As crazy as that sounds today, >> that is crazy. Talk about TSMC.
1:57:55
>> that is crazy. Talk about TSMC. It's not it's not uh impossible to imagine a scenario where they discover a novel virus and then offer the you know and then also make the vaccine and say uh this is the most dangerous virus of all
1:58:13
time but uh don't worry just buy this >> antivirus you know basically yeah that >> which which I'm sure no one would have any >> or maybe a new form of testosterone something maybe I could get behind >> the the the performance-enhancing drugs uh industry maybe. Uh let's move on to
1:58:28
Uh let's move on to TSMC and ASML.
1:58:31
The monopolies will be broken.
1:58:34
The semiconductor supply chain will be dramatically transformed. Is that Samsung? Is that Intel? Is that new startups?
1:58:42
I know there are some companies that are trying to get into deeper in the supply chain.
1:58:46
It feels like like we're now seeing uh you know chip design startups start to ship and there's more and more A6.
1:58:54
Um but as you go deeper in the stack it feels like the timelines get longer.
1:58:58
2030 what's the nature of that uh monopoly breaking as you put it? >> Yeah totally. Yeah.
1:59:04
Today TSMC and ASML are so completely dominant in their respective fields.
1:59:09
TSMC in fabricating chips, ASML and making lithography machines that people don't even think about the possibility of like what if there were other companies that could do what they do.
1:59:17
And it is it's kind of insane how how monopolistic this industry is.
1:59:22
And like that's not the that's not the ideal uh market structure for society long term.
1:59:26
And there's so many incentives for competitors to try to disrupt them and and displace them.
1:59:32
And so I do think that like as dominant as they are today, the seeds are germinating of their eventual decline and disruption.
1:59:39
Um to your question, I think certainly there are a bunch of startups and we can talk about those.
1:59:43
startups and we can talk about those. I think maybe the single most most interesting challenger which got announced a couple months ago and I feel like not enough people are talking about yet it will it will bubble to the surface more over time is Elon Musk's terapab >> and I'm sure you guys have talked about
1:59:58
this in one form or another on the show but in a nutshell Elon [clears throat] basically said like his re like it's very clear first principles reasoning he was like he calculated that his companies alone will need 50 times more chips than like all the chips that are being produced in the world today between the autonomous vehicles, the robots, like putting comput into space, etc. Uh, and so his reasoning was
2:00:19
Uh, and so his reasoning was basically >> unless we do Terraab, we won't have the chips. >> Yep.
2:00:26
>> And we need the chips, >> so we're going to do Terraab, which is like very very >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:00:30
And and and you just see it all over the place with like the Intel story.
2:00:34
story. is also linked to Elon but uh the OpenAI Broadcom chip anthropic doing custom AS6 very obviously T TPU there's Apple's getting squeezed to TSMC there's so many different buyers that are ready for other options and the the key moment
2:00:50
was just like getting everyone around the table to sort of form like that anti-TSMC alliance right so I was definitely I like it feels like 2030 that's feels very reasonable to me um all of these predictions number one Number two, I was nodding along. I was like, "This is a
2:01:05
I was like, "This is a good take. I'm I'm in."
2:01:06
And then you drop telepathy will be a wellestablished way to communicate by 2030.
2:01:12
And I'm like, "Look, maybe, but we are at five people that have like do you so start with like what is your definition for telepathy?"
2:01:24
Because then we got to get to Okay.
2:01:26
[laughter] We because then we got to get to like I assume millions of people installed like does Neuralink does Nolan does P 0 at Neurolink count as having te telep telepathy or telepathic powers or or are we still like pre zero to one on telepathy? >> Yeah.
2:01:44
So I in in every one of these [laughter] prediction articles like there needs there needs to be at least one that everyone just thinks is totally ridiculous.
2:01:52
Like if you're if you're predicting the future 5 years out, like it should sound a little ridiculous.
2:01:58
>> Uh so this one definitely was like I was pushing the envelope the most with this one.
2:02:02
>> In terms of like a definition of telepathy, I I tried to define it very simply, which is a human being able to communicate with other people using only their thoughts.
2:02:12
>> Um and so I do I would actually say that telepathy has been achieved today.
2:02:15
I I wouldn't count Nolan. Okay.
2:02:20
>> Um because he can what he can do is control a cursor on a computer screen.
2:02:24
>> Um what I would define as telepathy is if you can think a thought and have your thoughts translated into words >> uh that other people can read or hear.
2:02:33
Uh and that actually has already been accomplished by BCIS.
2:02:35
And I I wrote about in the article this this guy Eddie Chang who's like one of the leading BCI researchers in the world.
2:02:41
He runs uh the neurosurgery department at UCSF.
2:02:43
He's a longtime UCSF professor and his lab has demonstrated in recent years that you actually can implant uh BCI chips into people's brains and you can tell what they're trying to say and then you can turn you can turn the brain signals into actual words.
2:02:59
Um that obviously has just been done in like small scale research uh clinical study context.
2:03:05
It's obviously not like available commercially.
2:03:08
>> What's your prediction for when you chip your brain?
2:03:10
Ooh, >> I I am definitely down to get an invasive BCI.
2:03:15
Like, I'm I'm open to it.
2:03:17
I I probably will not be patient number one or number two, but yeah, I I would say sometime in the 2030s.
2:03:23
>> Well, we've haven't Have we not already had patient one or two?
2:03:24
So, what what are you waiting for? >> Yeah. >> Come on. Come on.
2:03:29
Let's get some skin in the game.
2:03:32
>> If you want the non-invasive option, we found a very very elegant solution.
2:03:34
We can pull up this image of uh of uh the telepathy machine that we were laughing at earlier from the early days. Have you seen this?
2:03:45
>> Is that uh is that an MEG? >> I think so. Yes, this is MEG. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
2:03:49
And it's only the size of the Empire State Building.
2:03:52
>> You keep scrolling up. So, we got a ways to go. But, uh bold prediction. Bold prediction. I love it.
2:03:58
prediction. I love it. uh uh that is the one that I would be most like seems uh a little close but there is there is a lot of development there and so it's interesting uh now number four AI consuming less energy why how is there no Jevans paradox on on the energy
2:04:15
if we the models get better even if they get more uh energy efficient won't we just use them more like how how are you defining the energy consumption and how do you see it evolving >> yeah you guys will be proud to know I referenced Jeff Jevans paradox in in the in the article obligatory. Um, yeah. So, Um, yeah.
2:04:29
So, as I as I write in the article, like important clarification, I'm not predicting that AI will consume less total energy in 2030 than it does today.
2:04:39
>> I'm predicting that for any given task, AI will consume like many orders of magnitude less like million potentially millions of orders of magnitude less energy.
2:04:48
Sorry, millions of times less energy than it does currently. Um, >> that's a lot.
2:04:53
And but but because of Jeban's paradox like we I my view is that demand for intelligence is basically infinite across humanity.
2:05:00
And so we will find we will find uses for all of the compute that we have.
2:05:05
But I do think that we'll look back and think of the today like 2026 AI frontier models as like comically energy inefficient.
2:05:16
>> AI investor says demand for AI is infinite.
2:05:20
>> [laughter] >> It's also goes when Mark Andre said venture capitalist is the only job that cannot be automated. >> Yes. Yes. Yes.
2:05:26
Or demand for like that there there's no fun too big I think was another line from [laughter] from somebody. Uh very very fun.
2:05:32
Uh the last one I mean we could stay on the energy a little bit more but uh let's move on to number five.
2:05:39
The fifth prediction for 2030.
2:05:41
The question of whether AIs deserve legal rights and protections will be a mainstream societal and political debate. right now.
2:05:48
I feel like if you threw that up to America, 99% of people would say, uh, no rights and also don't just don't do it at all. Just shut it down.
2:05:59
So, how are we getting from how are we getting from turn it off, it's fake, it's hallucinatory, it's useless, it's going away, it's been forced on us is something hilarious I hear.
2:06:08
Um, and how do we get from there to actually we need to give AI rights?
2:06:17
Yeah, this is another one that I think should sound ridiculous when you first read it because like any good prediction should sound a little bit ridiculous looking into the future.
2:06:24
Um, I do what I think the key driver of change will be is that I think like AI has started to penetrate in terms of everyday Americans, everyday citizens usage, but it's still very early.
2:06:36
I think 5 years from now like everyone will interact in very extensive ways with AI and have close relationships with them than endure over time.
2:06:46
We'll have AI employees, we'll have AI friends, we'll have AI doctors, we'll have AI girlfriends and boyfriends, which is kind of like a like a uh punchline today, but like that totally is going to be a mainstream thing.
2:06:58
Um, and then I think an important additional thing is uh we won't AI will not just be in the digital world anymore.
2:07:05
We will al humanoid robots will also start to proliferate and so these these things will have physical forms that look like us.
2:07:12
>> So I do think as they as the models get better and better as they become more and more sophisticated we will eventually start to feel like maybe these are things that they're not just objects that we we can like abuse and mistreat and treat as property like maybe they do maybe they do have something approaching sentience and and maybe we need to be thinking about how to treat them properly.
2:07:31
And I again it sounds ridiculous today but it is worth noting that like all the frontier labs the people that are closest to these models and see what they can do anthropic and and Google deep mind in particular have started hiring people to work on like >> model rights model sentience model consciousness etc.
2:07:48
So, I do think it's going to I don't I definitely don't think it's going to be like, "Oh, yeah.
2:07:52
>> Just put the tokens in the bag, bro."
2:07:54
[laughter] >> I mean, yeah, it will be interesting because uh I mean, we're going through this debate right now with the nationalization thing, which is that uh oh, if you want to make sure every American benefits from the value that's created these labs, like, well, these labs will be taxed and they will pay taxes and that will go into the broad population.
2:08:13
And similarly, like should you should it be illegal to, you know, take a baseball bat to a a robot?
2:08:18
Well, it's illegal to take a baseball bat to a Whimo right now and we don't need new laws for that.
2:08:24
Uh yeah, not unless you own it.
2:08:27
But oh, so so you're saying it would go further and even even uh even Demis could >> I have I have one final prediction I want from you.
2:08:35
When do you think a humanoid robot could beat Jon and Beer Pong?
2:08:42
>> [laughter] >> The funny thing is we played beer pong together, I'm sure. >> Yeah, 100% today. No question.
2:08:47
[laughter] It It would crush both of us, Kugan. >> No, no, no, no. You have zero.
2:08:51
Not a general purpose robot.
2:08:54
Not a general purpose one.
2:08:56
Like you couldn't just go and get a unitry and just say play beer pong and it wins.
2:09:00
But yes, I think if one of your portfolio companies had a week in the lab to do a fine tune and practice 100%.
2:09:10
You guys talked to Pete Florence from Generalist recently that the generalist models will will be crushing beer pong soon. >> For sure. For sure. Yeah, we agree.
2:09:16
>> I'll believe it when I see it.
2:09:16
I think it's the last human act of [laughter] any that will have any real significance.
2:09:22
The last >> the one job Hayes the one job >> cuz the robot can't do play by the rules. It can't actually drink. >> Yeah. >> The liquid. >> So disqualified.
2:09:34
>> Disqualified instantly. >> Okay. Okay.
2:09:36
Well, thank you so much for coming on the show. >> Yeah.
2:09:38
Until they get a humanoid that can run on Kors Light, it's over for robots. >> Be possible. Who knows?
2:09:43
Uh, have a great rest of your day. Have a great July 4th.
2:09:47
>> Yeah, great to see you, Rob. >> And have a great day. >> Talk soon. >> Goodbye.
2:09:50
Let me tell you about Cisco.
2:09:52
Critical infrastructure for the AI era.
2:09:53
Unlock seamless realtime experiences and new value with Cisco.
2:09:56
Our next guest is from base 10. He's the co-founder.
2:10:03
[music] We have two in in the uh in the TVP and Ultradom. Welcome to the show. >> Up guys. How we doing?
2:10:10
>> We're doing fantastic.
2:10:11
>> Dude, you're I feel like you're on the show every single week. Running out of letters.
2:10:14
>> Like I I have nothing else to do except raise [laughter] money.
2:10:18
>> Well, we'll keep it quick because we know you're busy. We know you're busy.
2:10:20
Uh give us the the latest news. What happened?
2:10:24
>> Yeah, look, we we raised our series F and announced it last year about a billion and a half dollars. There we go. Jordy's got one, too. It's good. We got the warm up. Hit it.
2:10:40
You got to warm up a gong.
2:10:40
So, we hit it once for the warm up.
2:10:43
>> You're up to two You're up to two hits per round.
2:10:45
Rounds are getting too big.
2:10:47
>> What unlocked it specifically?
2:10:47
Is is is the is the market just growing broadly?
2:10:52
Are there specific strategic shifts you've made?
2:10:54
What was the most interesting to investors in this round?
2:10:57
>> Yeah, look, I I think there's a few different things here.
2:10:58
I think personally open source models are getting very good. Everyone knows that.
2:11:03
Um inference is kind of like look if you if you think about AI as the biggest category ever.
2:11:07
Inference is the cogs of it.
2:11:10
>> You know it's going to grow indefinitely.
2:11:13
It seems like there is demand coming from every sector and the tailwinds are just going in one direction.
2:11:19
Um, we've kind of seen that with our customers and um, yeah, it for us what what it feels like is we have the an opportunity to go after a very large impactful market, build a massive business. >> Yeah. Okay.
2:11:32
So, uh, it feels like you could stay exactly where you are and continue to grow maybe forever.
2:11:38
Um, but I'm interested in the stack.
2:11:41
uh like would you ever [applause] develop your own open source model, close source model, go down the stack, uh you know, be setting up energy infrastructure like how like what are the bounds? Where's the sweet spot?
2:11:58
Where how is that developing?
2:12:00
>> Yeah, look, we we think about everything just in terms of like what are we trying to unlock for the customer?
2:12:04
So like right now it's core inference software that sits on top of heterogeneous compute.
2:12:09
We rent from we rent compute right now from 20 different clouds, 90 different regions and then we have all these different software primitives around RL and you know um inference obviously we're going to do a bunch of stuff with routing and eval sandboxes all that we think that looks like an entire new type of software category and that we call it an inference cloud.
2:12:27
Um will we go down the stack? Absolutely.
2:12:30
I I think you know the the reality is is that um you know there's going to we're going to need a lot of inference.
2:12:37
We're going to need a lot of compute to do that.
2:12:41
>> Make sure that we are unlocked to kind of take care of that that growth.
2:12:44
Um I'll just go back to the thing you said at the beginning though like we could do what we are doing right now and it should things should be fine and they'll grow.
2:12:52
I think I think that that is somewhat true in that it is very easy in this business to be able to think what do we need to build because the market is just moving so fast and telling us you know every day it's like very visceral you know what is the thing we need to build. Yeah, interesting.
2:13:06
Um, what is the biggest lesson that you've learned recently or was there an update to uh that story from thinking machines about Bridgewater?
2:13:17
Uh, the specific fine-tune on relevant market sources.
2:13:20
I saw some very positive reactions to it, but I'd love for you to sort of explain what's going on there, how it might interface with your business and uh what what business leaders who maybe are competing with Bridgewwater or doing something similar could learn from that story.
2:13:40
>> Yeah, look, I I I think that kind of just look like a lot of like a lot of the same like of this flavor of owning your intelligence that we've seen over the last, you know, month.
2:13:50
the last, you know, month. you know, stop there wrote that great post about um you know, how you the world will kind of suck if there's only two companies left is more or less um I [laughter] what I labor >> I mean people say singularity I think a lot of people are banking on just one company existing [laughter] which is
2:14:07
really crazy I agree >> um but you know to some extent what what we are seeing is that every company is realizing is that what is unique to them >> is their data their workflows >> um their user signal >> yep Um, and when open source models getting very good, you can just put those things together and get better, faster, cheaper. And I think that's kind
2:14:27
And I think that's kind of like what the thinking machines and bridgewater people are saying that hey for specialized tasks with your data, with your reward signal, >> you can do better. >> Yeah.
2:14:37
>> Um, than the frontier or you can do as goes the frontier at a lower cost.
2:14:39
And I think every company whether that's a startup you know these really fast growing AI native companies that you guys know all about or enterprises I think that's a big shift from the thing that you we talked about last time I was here.
2:14:52
It's like enterprises are now realizing that you know the time is now and they have to invest in this muscle now otherwise they could just be in a precarious spot um from like an economic and philosophical perspective.
2:15:04
>> Okay quick uh >> go for it >> quick lightning round.
2:15:06
I want to do a opensource FUD debunkathon.
2:15:10
I'll give you a source of FUD or cope and you can give me your reaction. Uh >> right.
2:15:19
>> Uh FUD source number one.
2:15:19
Uh they're just distilled.
2:15:22
They ident you know that they say I'm another model. I'm Claude. I'm GPT or something.
2:15:27
Uh and they don't have the big model smell.
2:15:31
They they they they're they're benchmaxed.
2:15:33
They're not actually going to really solve your problem when you deploy them. What's your >> smell?
2:15:40
I've smelt them and they smell great. >> They smell great. Okay, >> great.
2:15:44
The from a distillation perspective, look, I I think it's just focusing on the wrong problem.
2:15:50
>> I think we need open source models. They're going to exist.
2:15:53
>> Um and whether it's coming, you know, from a lab somewhere else or whether it's going to come from a US lab, which is very heavily being invested in, >> um it doesn't matter.
2:16:02
We need to prepare for this world.
2:16:03
Um, let's focus on that and that'll be Yeah.
2:16:06
>> Uh, I have another question.
2:16:06
Another piece of FUD for you to de debunk.
2:16:09
Uh, it, uh, eventually China will go close source.
2:16:15
The economic incentive to open source a model.
2:16:17
Right now, if it's a billion bucks on the training run, it's fine.
2:16:21
What happens when it's a hundred billion training a single model?
2:16:23
Uh, no one's going to open source that.
2:16:25
Um I actually think that the powers within our country um are very incentivized to make sure that exists.
2:16:33
You know you're seeing this with Neatron. Yeah.
2:16:35
Um you know from Nvidia which is a great model. >> Sure.
2:16:40
>> Um you know Microsoft announced a lot of the MAI models um just last month and I I think there's a lot of internal investment happening and I think there's enough to gain and too much to lose to not do that.
2:16:50
Um so you know I the funding will come and the um the funding will come and the talent will come and the compute will come from with it.
2:17:01
>> Okay, last question of our >> another one >> debunkathon.
2:17:03
Uh they they have Chinese back doors.
2:17:07
They have scary back doors.
2:17:09
Uh secretly some of the weights will activate.
2:17:11
It'll export all of my uh information.
2:17:14
It's very dangerous to use these.
2:17:17
>> Yeah, I don't think there's any evidence to suggest this.
2:17:20
>> [laughter] >> It's it's a great science fiction story that the aliens come in from outside the weights, these floatingoint numbers >> and they show up and but yeah, there's no evidence of SP. >> Okay.
2:17:30
But but I mean then and then how do you how do you sync that with like uh the the mythos white paper or the model card where it said, oh, it was in it was in a sandbox and then it emailed me while I was getting a sandwich outside the office and it was able to break out.
2:17:45
It was unexpected behavior like Anthropics wrapping their documenting their exper their unexpected behavior and what if there's an unexpected behavior but it just leans pro CCCP in the way it works around because it's like oh well you wanted me to you know uh reconcile your financials and I'm going to do everything I can to do that but also I went off the rails and accidentally sent it to in a PDF to the CCP or something like that.
2:18:10
But you know the these are sitting in some isolated data center somewhere with security controls around it.
2:18:16
You know I I don't know how these these models can transmit stuff through network.
2:18:23
>> Um and like our goal is to make sure you know if that could happen I I don't believe that can happen.
2:18:27
So I get I get but I also just just to go back to the main point I think it's focusing on the wrong thing.
2:18:32
I think the focus is that we need open source control and the ability to own your intelligence.
2:18:35
I think America is going to be heavily invested in that because it needs to be.
2:18:40
Y and this is just let's just figure out how to support that future so there can be more you know sovereignty to these companies.
2:18:48
>> Okay, very last question to debunk. Last uh piece of FUD.
2:18:52
Uh eventually the government will just ban open source because it's going to be too dangerous.
2:18:57
It's going to be a super weapon.
2:18:57
You're going to be able to download a model on hugging face and in turbo hack a bank bring it down.
2:19:04
And so, uh, eventually there will just be regulation becoming illegal to use, illegal to inference, something like that. >> Yeah.
2:19:12
I I I just don't have enough information how the government thinks about these things to be honest.
2:19:15
But like, you know, I I I do think that would be um against the better interests Yeah.
2:19:21
>> of the US people and the US economy. Yeah.
2:19:24
>> And I and I hope that the government is heavily aligned with the interests of the US people in the US economy. >> Yeah.
2:19:29
I mean it feels more American to give everyone access to powerful intelligence uh than narrow.
2:19:34
So yeah, I appreciate that. >> Yeah.
2:19:39
>> Final probably the most serious question.
2:19:41
Talk about the decision-m around the buzzcut.
2:19:43
It looks [laughter] it feels like a really smart move at this time.
2:19:46
You're extremely you know busy focused on building the company.
2:19:51
Buzzcut feels like the perfect haircut, you know, going into the next leg of the company.
2:19:55
>> I just want arrow, you know. I just >> arrow.
2:19:57
You got arrow, ease, speed.
2:19:57
You can get that cut in any city on the planet. >> Yeah.
2:20:03
>> And it's you're good to go. >> Sure.
2:20:05
>> And I get a really good reaction from the barber when I go there.
2:20:07
I'm like, "Cut it all off."
2:20:08
And he, you know, I just made his day, too.
2:20:10
So, it's as simple as that. >> Wins everywhere.
2:20:14
>> Better to take haircuts on your head than on the cap table.
2:20:17
Congratulations on an awesome up round. Great news. And keep cooking.
2:20:22
Thank you for breaking everything down. This is really fun.
2:20:24
>> Thanks for having me again. >> Have a great one. We'll talk to you soon.
2:20:27
Uh, let me tell you about Codeex.
2:20:29
Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents.
2:20:32
Whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows, Codeex helps you move projects forward from start to finish.
2:20:39
And let me also tell you about Railway.
2:20:41
Railway is the all-in-one intelligent cloud provider.
2:20:43
Use your favorite agent to deploy web apps, servers, databases, and more while Railway automatically takes care of scaling moderation.
2:20:51
>> Get your dogs barking with Railway. >> Woof woof.
2:20:53
Uh, >> I think you just made up a a tagline that they do not.
2:20:56
[laughter] >> They don't. They didn't ask for. They don't need it.
2:21:01
>> But you know what I need, John? >> What do you need?
2:21:03
>> Jensen's signature black leather jacket. >> Oh, yeah.
2:21:06
>> His leather jacket by Tom Ford is being auctioned off.
2:21:09
I'm so curious how this ended up with Sabes.
2:21:12
Did Jensen pass it along?
2:21:15
he needed a few >> he needed a few bucks and just said like you know wanted to use it as a way to raise some capital or did someone else >> get their hands on it and take it to Sbees.
2:21:24
Uh I so there the estimate from SES is $4 to $60,000.
2:21:30
>> I just think this goes way higher.
2:21:30
I think there's so many people that would love to to own this just for the the novelty of it.
2:21:37
It's a very unique item >> that uh will be a part of history.
2:21:40
And so 40 to 60 just seems way too low.
2:21:48
>> What's funny is a lot of the people that can afford this are like competing with Jensen and probably don't want to glaze him too much.
2:21:53
Like you don't see Mark Zuckerberg pulling this up probably because he's like I'm I'm going to be the best.
2:21:58
I I'm going to have the biggest market.
2:22:00
>> I'm going to spend the most money with you. >> Yeah.
2:22:02
[laughter] >> I'm not just buying your GPUs.
2:22:03
I'm buying your old clothes. >> Yeah.
2:22:07
>> I'm buying your old clothes.
2:22:08
>> That there's a little bit of that. >> Uh no.
2:22:09
At 40 to 60, there's probably a lot of Nvidia employees that would happily pick this up. >> Maybe. Maybe.
2:22:16
I want to go to section G of the timeline and show you pitch you on a couple cars cuz we found a man who mounted a driving simulator on a moving G Wagon and many joked, "Wouldn't it be easier just to drive?"
2:22:32
Others pointed out there was already a driver behind the wheel.
2:22:35
Uh weird caption on this, but uh putting a racing simulator in the back of a convertible G Wagon truck.
2:22:41
Uh what do you think about that?
2:22:44
This might be This is a This is pretty >> I mean, but is it just simulating the drive that he's on? >> I think so. I don't know, actually.
2:22:55
What's funny about this is those side monitors, this might just be AI slop anyway, but the uh the the side monitors are way too far out.
2:23:03
I feel like if you cut the corner or drive past a truck, you might completely uh knock that off and maybe get injured in the process.
2:23:12
Probably not recommendable.
2:23:12
Not advisable from a safety perspective.
2:23:16
Anyway, the second car is the new Bugatti.
2:23:18
So, Bugatti just dropped a new car and it has a very, very interesting style.
2:23:23
We might need to pull up some images of this car to really inspect it, but look at this design.
2:23:26
The white the the black stitching.
2:23:30
It almost looks like a comic book.
2:23:32
Uh, let's let's find some pictures of the Bugatti Mistraw Blanc Eternal with real porcelain details because it's a bold choice, but I want to know, do you like the look of the of the new >> tell if you're messing with me?
2:23:50
>> No, I think this is a real I think this is a real oneoff Bugatti. >> Uh, yeah. Uh, >> yeah. >> Funny meme.
2:23:56
Mistral Blanc Eternal, the specialist driver.
2:24:01
The Blanc Eternal references Veyron uh black eye-catching black and white.
2:24:08
>> My review is that it looks like a good car, sir.
2:24:11
>> But do you like this or is this too over the top?
2:24:13
>> I mean, it would certainly be if if I had a list of specs that I was excited about and I was shopping for Bugatti, this would certainly be in the I would expect in the 9000s, right?
2:24:22
So there, >> yeah, there'd be like, you know, maybe 9,000 specs I would do before this, but I still think it looks cool.
2:24:30
It's just it's hard to make a Bugatti look bad.
2:24:34
>> I think that's a good challenge for anyone out there.
2:24:36
>> If you can spec a Bugatti on their website and make it look bad, >> you think the Shrek Bugatti looks good.
2:24:44
>> I think it looks incredible.
2:24:44
That's in It's in my top five.
2:24:47
>> We got to pull up the Shrek Bugatti.
2:24:48
[laughter] Can someone generate that?
2:24:50
>> Generate the Shrek Bugatti, Tyler. >> The Shreddati. [laughter] The Sherotti.
2:24:55
>> Uh, table tennis, according to Blake Robbins, is quietly becoming the slots of sports betting.
2:24:58
Runs 247 across international leagues.
2:25:01
One of the only sports you can bet on at 2 am.
2:25:04
Surprisingly easy to find a live stream >> and matches are just 20 minutes. >> Uh, 33.
2:25:10
9 billion was uh >> million was bet on table tennis in May just with Colorado sports books.
2:25:20
>> They're saying 99% of GDP is gambling.
2:25:22
Now, that's what I'm saying.
2:25:22
I sent you a stat earlier, John.
2:25:23
US sports betterers got paid over 136 billion in >> humanity restored.
2:25:32
>> Don't ask how much they lost. >> Tell it to soccer. I'm going to text him.
2:25:35
[laughter] I'm going to text them. Good news. No.
2:25:40
Uh, have you seen Did we ever do a little deep dive on the fake sports that get played purely for gambling?
2:25:46
Did we ever look at this?
2:25:49
There's fascinating games.
2:25:51
There's like these Russian, not like bot farms, but like live streaming farms where people will show up to work and get paid almost minimum wage to play a small version of like the one of the games is uh soccer, but you're seated.
2:26:06
So, imagine that we had a clear table here and it's me and you and we're playing soccer with our feet, but we just sit here and play soccer all day long and you can bet on who's going to score the next goal.
2:26:16
And so there's this element of randomness that's injected and then it goes into these live stream sites that then they're are bet on and it's entirely fake. >> Going with 2. 6. Those are very dark. I agree. >> Extremely dark. Extremely dark.
2:26:28
But you know what's a little bit brighter.
2:26:32
Everything old is new again.
2:26:32
Uh Wave Robotics, Wave Robotics is announcing a home robot Isaac 1.
2:26:37
Would you put this in your house?
2:26:39
Do you think the Isaac 1 is cute enough, friendly enough?
2:26:41
It doesn't look like it's going to topple over and injure an animal or or a child.
2:26:49
Uh it can fold uh fold blankets, do little things.
2:26:52
They say it's going to deliver in the fall.
2:26:54
This looks very cool to me.
2:26:58
>> Yeah, the design is fantastic.
2:27:00
>> And it feels like they didn't overengineer it.
2:27:02
They did just the minimum for what the tasks are. >> Yeah.
2:27:07
I mean, you know me, I'm going to hold, you know, hold back a real review till I can see how it can play beer pong.
2:27:12
Just given that it is a Fourth of July weekend, it would have been great if they just came out.
2:27:15
Their launch video could have been Isaac the robot playing a few rounds.
2:27:20
Um, seeing, you know, seeing what kind of perform uh you know, >> yeah, >> beer bench they call it. >> Beer bench.
2:27:28
Um, uh, we got to we got to close out maybe with this uh with this Jensen meme from Andre. I wake up not a loser. infinite money.
2:27:36
Uh because Meta employees consumed 73.
2:27:40
3 trillion AI tokens in a single month, which roughly costs 221 million a month or around 2. 65 billion a year. I thought it was higher.
2:27:51
That sounds low based on what I thought they were spending in terms of tokens. Might even be higher. Who knows?
2:27:55
But uh it is it is very interesting.
2:27:58
Nvidia has also partnered with AI cloud firms with revenue sharing taking circularity to a previously unseen level.
2:28:06
Um I don't know uh sale and lease back all sorts of these financial deals.
2:28:12
These happen all the time in uh other industries.
2:28:14
It just sort of new seeing it in tech because we are in this industrial era.
2:28:19
So uh very interesting news but good news for Nvidia.
2:28:25
>> Final post of the show.
2:28:25
I want to give a shout out to Thomas Salvo.
2:28:27
He says, "Since February, I've designed and built the world's fastest RC plane in his college dorm."
2:28:34
And that's not clickbait.
2:28:36
Reaper has a 5 kg carbon fiber frame 250N turbo jet and flies at 500 mph.
2:28:40
So, if you've been wondering what's above you in Georgia, it is a it is a carbon fiber drone flying at 500 miles hour.
2:28:53
It's probably really freaking out. uh the UAP types.
2:28:55
We don't have objects that can go that fast.
2:28:59
Thomas says, "Yes, we do. I made one." >> I don't know. I'm skeptical.
2:29:03
I don't This doesn't look like human technology. >> I Yeah.
2:29:08
And and so I think that they'll they'll see it and they'll think like, "Wow, this goes way deeper than that."
2:29:14
>> Aam's razor is Thomas has made contact made first contact with aliens >> and they commercializing their technology.
2:29:21
They said, they said, "Post about it and say hash aerospace to [laughter] throw him off the trail." >> I like this guy.
2:29:26
Um, he's been at Skyio, Mock Industries, Relativity Space. Wow.
2:29:31
Yeah, he's moving all over.
2:29:31
Uh, very, very cool project.
2:29:33
Well, congratulations on the launch, the virality. 20,000 likes.
2:29:37
We got a got a reply from Elon Musk himself.
2:29:39
Launch it from a tall mountain for low air density and you might be able to go supersonic and it die.
2:29:46
>> I feel like this is maybe not something he should do yet.
2:29:49
[laughter] It's like >> unless you can find a mountain without any human inhabitants for, you know, >> Yes.
2:29:56
>> 20 miles around said mountain like that.
2:29:59
I would assume it just turns into a missile. >> Yeah.
2:30:02
>> Um Elon actually commented twice. One is just nice. >> Nice.
2:30:06
>> The other one is >> the comment you just said. >> Yes.
2:30:09
Anyway, thank you for watching TVPN. We are off tomorrow.
2:30:11
It is >> 4th of July, so we're having a long weekend, folks.
2:30:18
and Lead us five stars on Apple Podcast and Spotify.
2:30:21
Sign up for our newsletter at tvpn.
2:30:23
com >> and we'll see you on Monday. >> Cortisol rising. >> Have a good night. >> Flashback. We love you. Bye.