hey everybody welcome back to the all
in podcast besties i have reunited it's been a bestie summer chamoth how are
you doing you're back in america yes i am back in america back in america uh
feels great uh good summer yes i had uh seven weeks in italy it was really incredible what
is the vibe in italy post-pandemic obviously they
0:22
had the the roughest of any nation i think
except for china and wuhan um with cover 19. how's the psyche there no it's incredible because
they're i mean they're so resilient they basically decided that they don't ever want to go through
it again so everybody wore a mask and um people
0:40
socially distanced there's lots of dinners outside
no restaurants were really seating people indoors you'd walk into a store and you'd have to put some
you know purell on your hands and wear a mask and there was like you know 40 50 cases a day
and then i keep looking at the news when i
0:58
was there 60 000 a day here i was it's it was
just really it was sad and then on top of that to see the riots the fires i mean there's a
you know it's been a disturbing summer here uh how are you doing david sachs you're
back in san francisco and uh you got to spend a little bit of time in an undisclosed
location as we we know from the last couple
1:19
episodes of the podcast how is san francisco
right now how has your bestie summer been uh it's been great um yeah i was i guess i can
now disclose that my disclosed location was uh was mexico specifically cabo and that was it was
a great place to be for a couple of nobody cares
1:39
yeah exactly um but actually um it it it was great
it was a great place to be in the early stages of the pandemic because everyone was wearing
masks you know they did take it really seriously and there were very few cases and seemed like it
was under control at least in the area i was and
1:55
then um you know we came back to san francisco
for for school for for the kids school which um you know i'm not sure we have to be here but um
but that's that's yeah that's school actually open are they going to school or they keep pushing it
out two weeks like my kids are yeah it's we don't
2:12
they're not going in person yet but i think they
keep trying to figure out when they're gonna be able to start doing that so it's all zoom based
right now yeah which means no learning right i mean do you think these kids are actually
learning on zoom or do you think it's just glorious a little bit i mean a little
bit i think it's it's it's difficult
2:30
yeah we gave up on it and free burger are you
there i'm here barry yeah how's your bestie summer been uh during this crazy time i've
been in the bay area i've been um crossing all seven layers of uh dante's inferno here in
california moving from the outer layer of covid to the middle layer of california's proposed
wealth tax to the uh inner layers of extreme heat
2:59
smoke and the absolute central layer of pain more
recently my three-year-old daughter decided 34 nights ago to not sleep anymore so um yeah we've
been living living the life it's been glorious and um you know i wear a mask now for kovid and
then i wear another mask on top of that mask for
3:17
the smoke so we're just living the california
dream what my parents immigrated here for you know paradise well i guess that's a good place
to start and um just if anybody cares i spent uh you know i've been lonely and i tweeted i'm lonely
and i got about 50 phone calls from people who
3:45
are like i can't imagine j-cal being sad but i
actually had a talk with my wife and i said what are the symptoms of depression because i i think
i might have depression and i went through and i was like i don't have depression i'm just i have
great empathy for all the people suffering and
4:02
you know i just being isolated you guys know me
very well better than anybody like i like to talk to people and it's been really difficult for me
to be totally candid to be isolated like this and the podcast is is great and doing this podcast is
great but man i miss people i just missed what are
4:18
the what are the symptoms of your depression just
before you were self-diagnosing i'm just curious i was i i was feeling like um just sad about
watching the riots and watch people shoot each other and then watching you know the the the
wildfires watching people die unnecessarily and then watching the madness for the election
it was just all becoming like i wouldn't say
4:42
overwhelming but it just made me very sad that you
know so many people can't go back to work and then the stock market's ripping and it's a very i don't
know how you guys feel but it feels very surreal right because in our world and i don't know how
your portfolios and investments are doing you
4:58
know a lot of the companies we've invested in as
angel investors um are doing just wonderfully and we're investing more than ever but then you turn
on the television it's like the doom scrolling is crazy so i had to just stop doom scrolling
i think that was the key thing chamoth was just
5:11
looking at twitter is that the trending topics is
so depressing and just so overwhelming at times that i took three days off this weekend and went
camping and i literally didn't pull up twitter and i felt much better so i think it's really twitter
related like just opening up the trending topics
5:28
i don't know if you did that on your holiday
in italy but it really is a quick way to get depressed the best thing is that i was using it
in a different time zone and so i was basically out of the flow and it makes a huge difference
because then you're not in the emotional turmoil
5:48
of people's immediate reaction and so you can
just kind of uh move on and then also i just had a really fun summer because i really tried to detach
and not use my phone i had a you know i kept my meetings to a few hours a day and then otherwise
i was doing things yeah you you want to know you
6:06
want to want to know my phone call to jaycal it's
like hey jake al i i saw on twitter that you're you're sad and lonely it's like yeah yeah it's
like are you suicidal it's like no okay goodbye but i do i do want to thank you david
for having me down to cabo and we got to have some good times to watch some good
movies uh gladiator extended cut was great
6:34
uh some other movies that we watched could
get us cancelled so we won't admit that we watched history of the world or any other mel
brooks movies but we had a good time played a couple rounds of golf and that was good times uh
but let's talk about california because i think you know we're all residents
currently of california
6:49
but let me just put it out there how many people
on the call are considering uh leaving california anybody is that going through anybody's mind right
now because it's going through um for well it's not for me um but uh i think that california is
sort of emblematic of what could happen if you
7:11
actually have um you know the legislative bodies
plus you know the the top sort of political leader up and down on one ticket i mean you know you
you basically have like massive rife incompetence and it's been compounded you never i mean
you know if people who are democrats would
7:32
have said oh the best thing that can happen for
democrats is if you have you know local cities plus an assembly plus the state senate plus the
governor as a democrat republicans would have said the same thing for republicans but as it turns
out uh it basically creates the worst outcomes
7:49
and so instead what you need is a little
diversity of ideas and a little push and pull um but california is like a bunch of clowns in a
clown car right now it's a joke but i'm not going to move now part of it i'm not going to move is
i i've you know my taxes i've set up in such a
8:06
way where california can't get access to most of
my assets anyway so you know they can pounce in definitely yeah david how are you uh sax how are
you feeling about california right now um and just the craziness in san francisco the homelessness
problem in san francisco has become acute during
8:27
this it's it's really well it's it says on top
of it and it's it's a disaster it's a disaster um i mean i'm not uh i'm not leaving or anything
but it's certainly a topic of conversation that's come up a lot and i do know people who have
left um i know a couple of people who you know
8:44
prominent people in the venture community who've
recently moved to austin and it's a horrible time for the the city and state be proposing all these
new taxes as just take one example because people are already realizing that because of covet
and and this new sort of work from home and zoom uh business culture where you can kind of
work from anywhere that people are realizing they
9:10
don't need to be in san francisco or in silicon
valley anymore to be you know in the technology industry and so at precisely the time that
people were reevaluating where they wanted to be realizing that that could be anywhere california
is now you know proposing to massively increase
9:25
the cost of being here um so it's it's horrible
timing and then you know you do have this uh sort of seemingly chronic uh issue in san francisco
particularly with with the sort of homeless problem uh just seems to keep getting worse um and
there's there's sort of this um weird hostility
9:45
to technology and tech workers um here that i
think it somehow uses a scapegoat to prevent the city from dealing with its real problems and
what do you perceive those real problems to be in in the city um i mean you use the term homeless
i think most people looking at the problem
10:03
as one person candidly told me you know what we
have is not and i wouldn't say who said this but it's a prominent person they said this you know
jason the issue here is this isn't a homeless problem this is a junkie problem and the use
specifically is that i'm using that term because that's the term to refer to people who are
addicted to opioids methamphetamine fentanyl
10:20
and that if you were to actually unpack what
we're calling a homeless crisis it's actually a crisis of drug addiction and specifically
fentanyl and i don't know if you guys saw we're gonna hit something like 500 overdose deaths
this year we're like going to double last year and
10:32
it's all fentanyl which is a particularly you know
deadly drug so i mean how much do you think that is the problem david huge i mean it's it's you're
right that homelessness is not the the cause of the issue that homelessness is the consequence of
long-term drug addiction and mental illness i mean
10:53
this is the it's the end state and uh you're
right the city is it's not really tackling the underlying issues in fact it's kind of eating and
abetting them i mean how many millions of needles does the city give away every year and that it
only collects a small fraction of them with the
11:09
remainder ending up on the streets um it's just
it's bonkers and i think part of the problem is that we keep saying that until we uh it
is that we can't demand any uh improvement in the situation in terms of homeless people
you know we have this like poop squad in in san francisco that's literally cleaning poop
off the sidewalks because um homeless people
11:35
are using our sidewalks as as like a latrine
basically as a bathroom and and what you keep hearing is that well we can't do anything about
that problem until we solve the homeless problem and that's a and certainly we should try to
solve that problem but it's a very long term you know difficult and tractable problem
in the meantime we can certainly do things
11:55
like demand that homeless people not do that yeah
and the policing seemed to there seems to be a distinct issue with policing right now i watched
the san francisco tenderloin twitter account david freeburg and they've arrested something like
260 meth meth and fentanyl dealers but we have a
12:14
uh d.a chessa i believe his name is who doesn't
believe in prosecuting any of those crimes uh related to drugs or petty crime freeberg what is
the city turned into for you as somebody who's been a long-term investor in the bay area um well
i moved here after i graduated college in 2001 and
12:34
i loved san francisco it was it was a quieter
city in a quainter city i honestly um over the years have found uh the traffic and the congestion
and the buildup of the city to be frustrating i'm a little bit of a anomaly in this sense because i
think a lot of people you know think that the city
12:51
should continue to grow and progress and build
housing and so on those are all uh you know fine objectives but i think the quality of life
has degraded for some time in the city as as infrastructure hasn't kept up with the uh the
changing pace of uh companies growing here and as a result we've kind of got this ballooning
inflating budget that's been poorly managed
13:11
you've got um i forgot the statistic but there's
um some number of thousand people plus that are city government employees in san francisco earning
over 300 000 a year um and so there there's a there's a chronic kind of bureaucratic issue um
that is the cancer that has caused uh you know a
13:29
lot of the follow-on crises that i think we're now
experiencing acutely here in the city now in terms of leaving to your earlier question i you know
um i was really like i've just been like everyone you know like that i caught kind of talk
about the dante inferno layers it's also like
13:46
for me growing up it's like a seven layer burrito
it's like one layer of [ __ ] after another um start with the beans and in the middle you got the
sour cream and um you know this city's just gotten um kind of and the state has gotten more and more
difficult to live in and i and i was certainly
14:01
thinking and talking to my wife like we gotta
leave her family's here so we're not gonna leave the state but then i did a call last week that uh
that i think 18 of us were on with governor newsom and um you know he made a couple of really
interesting points that really did honestly reset
14:15
my perspective you know i've tried to take a step
back and think a little bit more broadly about the long-term opportunity in california the way
this state operates uh right now it's the fifth largest economy in the world they ran a surplus
their refinance their debt they've done a great
14:30
job kind of managing kind of the fiscal gap that
that's that's being created by the copic crisis um and you know governor newsome made a point
like we have had the california exodus story that's percolated and cycled really for decades uh
he pointed out an article which i've not been able
14:46
to find but i've been looking forward from time
magazine from 1959 that were like declared this is the year everyone's going to exit us out of the
state and we hear it every couple years there's some crisis that precipitates the mass exodus and
it hasn't happened because it is a great place
15:00
to work it's diversified industrial base it's not
just tech tech is a lot of the growth but there's a lot of industry here largest ag producer largest
um large military aerospace industry and on and on and on uh this is a it's a great um diversified
economy it's a great diversified cultural
15:18
base it's by the oceans it's by the mountains
it's an incredible place to live and work and i don't think any of us want to give that up
and uh and the the media has done a great job kind of um magnifying these these small stories
that aren't really a story governor and eusa made the case that this wealth tax proposal
you know was one assembly member it didn't
15:38
even get into committee it wasn't even really
being considered but it kind of created this this press flourish and everyone got involved and
everyone i know kind of freaked out about it and it became this kind of another catalyzing event
but it wasn't really real so if we kind of broaden
15:51
our perspective a little bit both in terms of
space and time i think we get a little more kind of comfortable with like of all the places to
live and all the places to work this is the best and you can go see some taxes and move to austin
but i mean then you got to go live in austin you
16:04
know whatever well it's it's it's the best it's
the best you're right that is the best in terms of climate geography natural beauty uh resources
and the industries that have developed here and have you know strong network effects but it's not
the best politically i mean it's among the worst
16:24
politically and it seems like the politicians are
doing everything they can to mess it up i mean i almost wonder if there's like a resource curse
issue particularly with san francisco where you know there's this thing in and um i mean this
this observable thing with governments that
16:38
um that sometimes you get a resource curse
where if there's like a lot of oil in the country or something uh you end up with with a
government that's not very good because people just spend all their time going to war to try
and capture it and i kind of wonder if you know san francisco has been the beneficiary of
being proximate to silicon valley this enormous
16:54
like wealth creation prosperity job creation um
ecosystem that had nothing to do with creating and i would say two things to build on what you're
saying um the first is i think that when the economies in an environment are really really good
all the really really smart people want to go into
17:14
those economies and that leaves generally
dumber people to do things like politics so uh and that's less true in places that have
shittier economies uh yeah faster and and i actually think that that's that's practically
true we may not want to think it and it may not may sound a little harsh but it's true and
you know the the way that you reverse it is
17:34
what singapore does which is you make the civil
servants the highest paid people in the economy right and you treat them like knowledge workers
and you say wow look i'm going to pay this person 250 300 000 a year you're shocked at the quality
of the person you get that's the the first comment
17:49
i want to make the second one though is is that
unlike all these other times where i think people have been um you know sort of uh prognosticating
the doom and gloom of california the the thing that's different now is that because it is such a
dominant political environment for the democrats
18:09
it's much easier to judge if they actually know
what they're doing and if they are going to do things that are aligned with the sort of like the
moral code of the party that elected them and so like let's just talk for example about the fact
that uh we are not going to have police reform
18:28
of any kind in california which is where
you'd think would be the first state where people got their act together and said okay if
we really believe that we need to reform police we can do it in our own backyards but that
legislation is going to get blocked because uh
18:45
californians have decided that they care
more about the alignment to police unions than they do to the right of law into social
justice for minorities and blacks that's crazy we should be the most progressive
is your point on this chamath and the point is to say it explicitly is the
politicians are in the pocket of the unions
19:05
and because they're in the pocket of the police
unions and the education unions we cannot make forward progress even though we're supposed to
be the most liberal of all locations correct that's in summary yeah exactly the we we actually
if we believe that we have you know up and down
19:20
the ticket the ability to implement justice right
at least justice in the vein of the democratic party and what that platform represents or for
example all of the people that were out protesting okay uh during black lives matter during that
entire movement i suspect the overwhelming majority are democrats slash progressives or you
know let's just say the majority or at a minimum
19:44
plurality okay but then the idea that then you
have a state the most populous and the richest filled up and down the ticket with people who are
theoretically aligned with those political values but then when push comes to shove and the
legislation hits the floor it basically
20:01
gets mothballed to me is inexcusable
and disgusting yeah i mean look at the housing issue we just had a bill that was
an incredibly simple bill i think it was 11 yeah sb 11 20. i know if you followed this one
but i've been following it on the twitter and it was a very simple piece of legislation any
single family home lot could have a duplex on
20:23
it so you could have two homes on a single lot
and they couldn't even pass that in a city where you know a firefighter a teacher etc cannot
live within 90 minutes of where they work and they couldn't even pass that um well also
there's there's also ab5 right i mean jason as uber's third or fourth investor yeah sure
you got something to say about that right
20:48
i think third or fourth but uh here we go
to the vc bragg's controversy can we just yeah could we just can we just pin down exactly
which one it is so you could just say you're the fourth investor or something like that it's so
much better to say third or fourth and that was my
21:01
obviously but um you know ab5 is another one look
at all the careers in which you can be david sacks a freelancer and the high the more money you
make the more you get to dictate your schedule but if you are poor and if you are in an
entry-level job the california government will not let you even though 70 of drivers
for these services want to be freelancers
21:24
and the services themselves said they will put
into a fund for healthcare like they literally uber you know dar is like hey we're going to put
money into this lift is going to put money into it they still will not let people decide for
themselves what shift they want it makes no sense
21:38
i mean and and it trickled into like journalists
too i mean there's they said now journalists can write if you if you write 30 articles a year
for a single outlet you're technically considered an employee even though you're writing the
articles on your own time with your own research
21:54
and you're getting paid for successful art for
good articles that are accepted and then there was this follow-on controversy about translators
it's like well translators takes five minutes to translate an article so why would 30 articles
apply to a translator and obviously when you
22:08
have that degree of confusion and complexity
something's off right yeah and it's such a it feels like virtue signaling yeah yeah well i think
well i mean the reason why av5 happened is it was at the behest of the teamsters right they're
trying to unionize the uber and lyft drivers
22:24
and they can't do it unless they're employees
and so you know the the author of the the bill lorena gonzalez who's sort of in their back pocket
um you know that's why she put forward the bill and then the absurdity of it was that you know
they realized after introducing it that it would
22:41
ensnare all these other occupations like the
writers and journalists and photographers and translators and yeah even like people like
manicurists and so on right and so what they've been doing is they've been now modifying the
legislation to exclude all of these categories and
22:57
in the process they're kind of laying bare what's
really happening here which is this is all about either basically shutting down or forcing
uh uber and lift to comply with um with the will of the teamsters and it seems like the
legislation blinked when uber and lyft said well we'll just shut the service down so what
your thoughts on when that happens saks dude
23:18
what do you think will happen who who
will win this ab5 shutdown a showdown well that whatever they yeah they threatened
to basically stop service and they got a stay i think from a judge uh yes so so 85 doesn't go
into effect until november when and there's a ballot initiative that they're sponsoring
to get 85 overturned so i think you know
23:40
i don't i don't try to predict whether it's
going to win or not but that to me is like whether if ab5 were defeated by a ballot
initiative in november that'd be a really positive sign for the state of california i'll say there
was um on this call with governor newsom last
23:54
week he did point out that ab5 was more of kind of
a law of inevitability as a result of that whole dynamics uh state supreme court decision where
the uh you know the supreme court basically said look here's the criteria that defines an employee
versus an independent contractor um you know they
24:14
get to decide what work they do or what hours or
whatever and there's like some set of criteria and they said look uber drivers and all these
other kind of technically independent contractors don't meet those criteria fully therefore they
are employees and as a result california assembly
24:28
tried to and had to effectively codify what it
means to be an employee versus an independent contractor and i'm not arguing for the case i'm
just saying what was conveyed by the governor last week on why this ended up coming to bear now
if they strike it down there's going to be some
24:41
other law that's going to pop up because this of
the state supreme the dynamics decision and that's kind of you know something's going to have to get
written down so sax don't you think it ultimately ends up just being some sort of negotiated point
between all of these industry leaders and you
24:55
know the state to kind of figure out okay what's
everyone going to compromise on to get something written down that's law i mean possibly i mean
dynamex is not like constitutional it's not a constitutional decision so the legislature can do
whatever it wants here you know and so if you were
25:11
going to respond to dynamics you don't have to
kind of enshrine it um so and i guess there there was certainly some question whether dynamex would
apply to uber and lyft in in this way you know they could have made they could have made
their arguments um in front of a court right okay look the problem is now and whatever applies
to california applies to every state legislature
25:38
how are these people supposed to figure
this out i'm sorry but like you know who are we entrusting here to go and then all of a
sudden understand the nuances of lift and uber and really understand the job that they do versus
the translators versus the this person versus the
25:54
that person versus the dynamex decision again i
think 20 years ago i kind of would have believed that politicians were generally some of the
smartest people um you know frankly amongst us um and it really did attract a certain level of
intellectual person who cared about legislating
26:13
but you know now basically you just have like
you know jerry falwell juniors running around i mean these these are they're all just running
around until they get caught on instagram and get fired i mean they're just uh they're not the
smartest people that we're dealing with and so
26:28
what was what was gavin newsom's answer to
that that's really what i would you know the jerry falwell junior point didn't
come up tomorrow but we can follow it does seem to me that if if they do become
full-time this would be a tragedy for the people who are trying to just do 10 to 20 to 30 hours of
gig work like what happens to those poor people
26:53
who wanted to fill in between when they dropped
their kids off of school and picked them up and just grabbed a couple hours here there as a
second gig like if this actually does pass in their full time honestly guys honestly you guys
are such you you're you're you're honestly look
27:11
it won't affect them it'll affect the
long-term profitability in the margins of the companies that have to hire them as
full-time employees and they'll have to like you know make a bunch of rules and blah blah
blah but it has huge operational implications and it has really terrible op-ex implications
for a company but for the person that wants to
27:28
work 10 hours json they'll still be able to work
10 hours so i think i think the point is that on a specific shift like they're gonna have to
come in at a certain shift time i think the point is like the entire public markets who all
of a sudden think that a business looks one way
27:42
has to figure out that it's really a cost plus
business and what it really means is you if you were comfortable with uh a 60 or 70 reduction
in the market cap of some of these companies you'd be okay with ab5 and i think that's where
the tension is where the people that made the law
27:57
don't care about the market cap because they
don't own the stock anyways and the people that are reacting to ab5 are the ones that own the
stock and are really thinking about the market cap well but the drivers the drivers are mostly on
the stock and they're against it the driver's own
28:12
eight shares david i mean come on no no that's
what i'm saying is they're not shareholders for the most part but this really does reduce
their flexibility to contract for their labor no but i think what you're saying will
happen which is that they will create a you know ab5 prime which is a modification
that's neither this nor what it was
28:34
uh but it seems that the tailwinds are pretty
clear which is that we're moving to a place where these companies have to get built in a very
clever way and even if they are super clever in capturing consumer demand the unit
economics are going to be pretty shitty and i just think we have to own that and and
probably what it means more than anything else is
28:55
it's not a real venture kind of business and so
you may be deficit financing it or building it in a very different way than we used to right
but it doesn't have to be that way what you're saying is is i think that this law will have
very adverse consequences for their business
29:09
okay i mean i grant you that um but it's it's
what why is the the state interfering in the relationship between uber and its drivers in
this way when everyone's happy with it no but it's not i think what actually is happening is the
state is effectively capturing the excess return
29:25
of uber and lyft meaning i think if you just
take a pure unemotional economic view at this it's like any other market if there's a huge
amount of margin available and there are not many competitors what happens is somebody comes
in to take the excess margin so you think that's the government that wants to take it and the
unions want to take it absolutely yeah absolutely
29:47
should we let them then dictate what hours people
work the thought exercise that i would ask guys if there was in a market 90 different
competitors for transportation would ab5 have been written past adopted and my answer
to you would be that it would not have been
30:06
so uber and lifts and doordash's success is what
leads to people wanting to get cut and get a slice the oligopolist model of success where not
enough other companies are pulled through got it well that gives us a good segue
into by the way sorry last point on this yeah and the funny thing is the people who
created the problem are the ones that hate
30:24
it the most which are the investors because they
pile in the incremental dollars into the winners trying to king make a winner through capital and
now what's happening is their rate of returns are basically getting taken away and i think that
in in in a weird way that's also kind of fair
30:41
well i i i would just disagree
slightly in the sense that just because this has big distributional consequences like
basically who who makes the the surplus uh doesn't mean it also doesn't have a huge deadweight loss
associated with it and whenever you prohibit people from engaging in the type of economic
contracts relationship that they want to engage in
31:04
you're reducing um surplus and so i so i hear what
you're saying but and i think there is i think this is all about regulatory capture right this
is the teamsters trying to capture a big piece of the value of uber through their politicians
the legislature so you're right about that but
31:21
i also think that we should care about it not
just as uber shareholders but as consumers of the product because it's going to get worse well
and also the products going to go away in certain jurisdictions i mean if freeburg wants to get
an uber north of the golden gate bridge or in
31:37
the east bay somewhere they're just not going to
have the economics for some communities yeah to even operate the service so just like ubereats and
postmates stopped delivering to treasure island a lot of the drivers were in their local
communities at home with uber turned on and when they or doordash and when they
got a call they would leave their house
31:56
and that was part of the magic of it is you
could just be sitting there you know netflixing or hanging out with your kids and then a good call
comes in and then you leave your house that's why you would have that like one minute pause if you
ever saw it you know in an uber ride where it's
32:07
like why isn't the car moving it's because that
person's at home and they were capturing the one ride every hour in their local you know suburban
area but if you force them to be hourly uber's gonna say you know what it's not worth having an
eight-hour shift in you know whatever suburb and
32:23
and the service will go away and then guess who's
gonna not have service and transportation i think sorry i was saying it was like sax's point like
you know from a consumer perspective or chamat's point if you end up with 90 of these service
providers and um i'm a consumer i'm less likely
32:40
to order a cab or order a ride share service
or i'm less likely to order food for delivery i don't want to deal with 50 [ __ ] apps i don't
want to have to like go find the one app that has the contract with the one restaurant then the
natural market dynamics the the way that the
32:54
market naturally evolves is i want simplicity as
a consumer i want efficiency that's what makes me want to use it more and when you take that away
because you're interfering from a regulatory perspective and how that market operates the
product sucks for me and yeah the shareholders ultimately suffer i i think to your point the
way that that would probably get solved is you
33:13
have people that are higher order in the consumer
behavior that own these relationships that enforce basically uh a user experience for example
facebook and google and apple essentially say we're abstracting all these services because
there's 90 of you google says i'm going to put
33:32
all of you guys on the map view um you know yelp
says the same thing and essentially what opens what happens is there's some like open way where
essentially a service provider can turn themselves on and broadcast into a network that says i'm
available to do a for b and it all gets fixed now
33:51
that's a future state which was the original
idea of uber by the way was to make a marketplace like that and now uber is talking about doing a
franchise exactly what you're saying chamath is let some franchisee take the east bay and
then provide their inventory network i think
34:05
franchising is a really really smart business idea
and i think that particularly in transportation um and a lot of these services that have this
natural dynamic to be local um where there are an infinite sum of many local markets i think it's
it's like a burger king it's like a mcdonald's and
34:25
the the company that moves to a franchising model
and then figures it out i think will be a huge winner um and that will be in that will be a very
asset light really operationally uh sophisticated very well run highly profitable business i think
let's talk about the public markets um wait jason
34:45
can we just talk about the police brutality thing
in california i just want to get your choices it really it really bothers me that california
like i bet you there's going to be states that are um diverse in its democratic and republican
composition and some republican states uh that passed comprehensive police reform and
california will be one of the laggards
35:09
what do you think if you could wave a magic wand
chamoth what are the one two and three things take a minute to think it through and everybody in
the call can what are the one two and three things you would do to change policing in the united
states i have my own list but i'm curious what
35:23
you guys think and i actually put a tweetstorm
out about my number one thing um what are the specific tactical things let's get tactical
first uh i mean the first one that i've always been a big fan of as i've studied it at least
from 10 000 feet is ending qualified immunity explain why and what that is you know qualified
immunity is essentially that they're there there
35:43
is this immunity that uh certain individuals
have and that they uh that they're not subject to prosecution and so um you know they essentially
have a carp launch to behave in ways that can be good in some cases very very bad in other cases
gray in other cases yet there's no adjudication
36:01
of their behavior and so you have to allow people
with solid dispassionate detached judgment to be able to enter and say hey listen you are way out
of line here and there are consequences for it and people coming in doing those jobs need to
understand those consequences versus you have a
36:20
carte blanche to basically do whatever you want
and i think let's talk specifically about the mer well the shooting involving i won't say murder
right now um because i think all the facts are not in but jacob blake was shot in the back um he was
obviously not listening to the police the police
36:36
then followed him to his car there's a discussion
of if there was a knife on the floorboard and point blank they shot him in the back
multiple times and i've heard both sides of this you know this person is not listening to
the police this person is going into the car
36:50
they're reaching potentially for a weapon and the
cops had no choice it seemed to me that you know the training of a police officer might
actually be that that was a legitimate tuning um but that means maybe they have to rethink
policing because you could have easily taken that person down with it even the most modest
of a chokehold or a tackle and when we see
37:10
that it feels like that's the raw shock test
right there of like how you look at shootings um in police when you saw that shooting i take
it chamoth of j blake and i i saw it and i i just like i i i can't see these anymore they they send
me off the rails for days uh but yeah i did see it
37:28
yeah and so i mean when you look at something like
that that's clearly training has to change because i i believe that based on police training and
qualified immunity this is going to be considered even though it's shocking to see it
i think it's going to be considered um you know an allowed shooting or yeah and
there's not going to the person person's not gonna
37:49
be prosecuted because the person was clearly not
listening and there was a knife on the floor and he was going for it and you know it seems to me
like we really need to change the actual training the average is six months of training so i think
that's one of the top things that has to change is
38:01
these these police officers have to be trained
not to fire first but to to use other tactics so so for me the first one is that the second one
for me which i'm a really big fan of is that there needs to be a new way to actually intercept 9-1-1
calls and instead of um deploying police officers
38:22
we have a separate branch of people that we you
know massively pay and train that are effectively you know social workers plus plus and negotiators
yeah and and they should be deployed in all kinds of situations um where i think that what
what people want is a de-escalation and i
38:41
think that sometimes the words de-escalation
and police don't really sync up and in most a lot of people's minds they think of escalation so
people who are trained to de-escalate i think uh and so for example like you know all of the mental
health checks all of the mental health issues
39:00
could probably be domestic like this domestic
disturbances would probably go into that category the the third one is i would very much rationalize
uh drug use um just because i think the amount of low level offenses and arrests around drug use
is antiquated for people's general views on drugs
39:19
and i think that it needs to sort of
correlate to how society views it and then um you know the the last two that i would give
you is that there's a concept of no knock warrants that's how brianna taylor was killed insane it's
kind of really scary the idea that we could all be sitting in our houses right now as we are
and literally the police can just charge in
39:40
i mean totally unnecessarily i mean she was being
for some like low-level drug idea they're going to knock the doors in and of course the person's
going to try to protect themselves that's their house sacks they knocked the doors in and
they were plain clothes wearing police officers
39:57
so people are coming and they did it at like
midnight when she was asleep so yeah people busting into her house at midnight screaming
making noise and not dressed as cops that's that's crazy yeah and then the last one i
would give you is militarization of police um a lot of these ideas by the way are justin
amash's ideas i i've retweeted and i followed
40:18
but he was the one that put me onto these
things um but you know like you have all this excess military equipment in the army that gets
basically passed through and now directly sold into police departments especially post 911 we
we basically militarized that so those are facts
40:31
what are what are your ideas around policing
and how we should change it you've heard shamans i i don't have more detailed ideas than than
chamoth i think he's given some good ones um for sure i mean i think we definitely need better
training and i think better oversight over the use
40:46
of force um the the body cam idea jason you you
tweet about i think that's pretty interesting too um i think you're right explain that for a
minute the body cam idea i had was i asked does anybody know and you know does black live
matter or another organization track which police
41:02
departments because we could get a list of every
police department that exists in some database somewhere do we actually know what percentage
actually have body cams and what model they use and what percentage are working because one of the
things that i think has happened this year is you
41:16
know the live streaming and the live video and the
number of smartphones out there has resulted in us being able to see what black and brown
people have been telling us for decades which is they're murdered by cops and now we get to see
it and you know when you see george floyd get
41:32
murdered it's fairly obvious that's what happened
we don't have a video they have the video of rhianna taylor getting murdered so that's from a
cop webcam i'm sorry body cam so i was thinking we should just start with that as a basic which
is every single cop car should have a 360 camera
41:46
in every cop it should be a federal mandate and
i don't exactly know how federal mandates were at sacks but don't you think there should be a
federal mandate for just cameras and car cameras i think i think it's a good idea i think the
use of cameras is a good idea um i mean maybe not recording the police officers when they're
sitting in their car but every time there's like a
42:05
clue you know like yeah they pull somebody
over sort of you know like fourth amendment type search and caesar seizure type situation
yeah i think it would make sense to have that on video why not yeah i mean you've got to think
every police will behave better go ahead freeburg um there was a case the other day uh a young
um guy i think he was 19 years old was shot in
42:26
dc named dion k i don't know if any of you guys
watch the body cam footage um and so he was a 19 year old black man he was shot he died um but in
the body cam footage you can see that he pulls out this gun and throws it and when he pulls out the
gun and flings his hand around he's got the gun
42:42
in his hand that's when the cop shot him and so
there was about a hundred protesters that showed up but it's largely become a non-story as a result
of the facts associated with the body cam footage but i just want to propose something
else that's a little bit more radical
42:56
maybe my libertarian ideals kind of cross with my
socialist ideals and forming this this concept but perhaps um you're a socialist no yeah i don't
know i've never been accused of that but um if we uh if we trace back you know the uh these systems
are really chaotic everything you're talking about
43:15
is layers and layers of bureaucracy and ideas
and [ __ ] we should do to manage the problem but there is kind of one common you know butterfly
effect butterflies at the source of all of a lot of what we're talking about which is guns if
there weren't any guns in the united states
43:30
i would not feel threatened as a police officer
i would never have any reason to feel threatened and i would never have any reason to pull a
gun the reason i always make to pull a gun as a police officer is my life is threatened
and in the absence of firearms i have no right to pull a gun and that's the case in like the
uk for example where there are like no police
43:48
officer shootings of civilians because they're
never under threat of being killed by a gun so there's a simple answer which is get rid of
the guns but you know a little too controversial and um obviously many layers to that argument um
especially from kind of both sides but i would
44:06
say um you know much much of what's going to go on
now and in the future it's just chaos theory it's going to be building more layers of complexity
it's more entropy it's more kind of associated complexity to try and resolve the underlying
problem of all of this which is that we've got
44:20
guns on the streets we've got guns in people's
hands and therefore you know there's always this threat against every individual that their life
might be taken by another well let me make a prediction right now there's not going to be any
new gun control legislation for a generation um because of the the looting and writing that's
going on uh gun sales are an all-time high i
44:41
mean every single gun store that ammunition gets
sold out you can't you can't get guns you can't get ammo and there are more first-time gun buyers
in the united states the last several months than there's ever been um i mean the the ranks of the
nra must just be swelling right now um and so so
44:56
this idea that you're going to get gun reform i
don't think it's going to happen people aren't going to support it and you know i think you know
use the word i think idealistic i mean i i think it's like a little bit naive um to assume that
you're going to be able to get rid of all the guns
45:14
in the hands of bad actors there are a lot of
people in this country who feel the need to have a gun to protect themselves um and you know
the cops can't always get there quickly enough um and a lot of people feel the need to to have that
for self-defense i also think the minimum amount
45:30
of training for a police officer should not be
six months i think they have to re i mean if we really want to have the society move forward and
you know to solve our issue of race which is you know like the original sydney of america we're
gonna really need to start thinking about making
45:47
you know police go back to school for 18 months
12 months and rethink how we how we address this situation because it's just tragically
unfair that one group of people's children has to worry when they're driving in a car and
you know other people on this call don't have
46:01
to worry right and you know uh that is just
crazy let's um take a hard uh shift to the economy and then we'll go into um the election
what do you think trump you've been talking a little bit about the economy and the stock market
ripping again and we seem to have hit a pause uh
46:20
but we did have like a massive rip with tesla and
amazon tesla and apple i guess doing a stock split and we hit all-time records why are
we hitting all-time records jimoth we have the most important thing that's happened
i think in economics in the last 10 years um the federal reserve jerome powell gave this
landmark speech and he basically said we are
46:41
going to keep rates at zero for the next half
decade uh basically and five years at zero yeah i mean quite honestly it could be a decade
but they're gonna let inflation run before they basically match it with rates there's no path
to any near-term inflation of any kind whatsoever um and so jason my honest perspective is you
know you're basically going to get paid to be
47:09
long equities because uh your risk-free rate is
zero and will soon be negative and what are you supposed to do if you're an asset manager what
are you supposed to do with you know your take california back to using california let's just say
your calpers you're the california pension system
47:26
and you have hundreds of billions of dollars then
you need to generate five or six percent a year to make sure that your pension isn't insolvent
and the government is paying you zero okay so that eliminates that option no
treasuries for you you're long equities
47:44
um and when everybody is in that situation
you're overwhelmingly long equities and you know the you cannot
fight the fed and so you cannot wait them out it's not like you can say oh
don't worry they're going to change their mind uh they will change their mind but in reaction to
market conditions that are out of your control so
48:02
uh all of these opportunities in my opinion
are generally buying opportunities and uh i'm generally bullish i'm more bullish now than
i was before so you can't put your money into treasuries you can't put it into a savings account
obviously you can't put it you you it doesn't seem
48:18
like real estate or commercial real estate is
a great bat right now uh so your options are private companies or public companies correct jama
um i think it really is just public companies and i don't even think it's private companies
so meaning wherever capital is constrained
48:37
the returns um again these excess returns are
getting eaten up um and so the the most unimpeded market for gains right now is the public
markets i mean like no offense but i think that if you're a very good stock picker in the
public markets you're generating better returns
48:52
then uh sequoia benchmark name your best venture
fund you know i see all these people spouting off uh on twitter about how good they are
in the early stage markets it's all kind of small dollars and not that meaningful
you know i'm on the call right i'm on the call i mean you're literally talking
to the guys spouting off about hitting home runs
49:14
saks what are your thoughts on this like private
markets obviously is the op where we operate both david's free berg and sachs um and you're seeing
great deals i think i i've invested in twice as many companies during the pandemic as i did before
in the same six-month period what are you seeing
49:28
in the private markets and what do you think what
is your take on best cc's public markets exactly you know we saw some of the best deals that we've
seen uh during covid and um you know i'm i'm very bullish about the state of entrepreneurship in
the u.s i mean just the the number of interesting
49:45
companies doing interesting things and the the
infrastructure that makes it so easy for founders to get started and create new companies it's so
much easier now to create a to create a company that it was 10 years or 20 years ago and of course
it's easy to point all the ones that don't work or
50:01
that don't seem like good ideas but uh but there's
so many more experiments that are happening and i think it's gonna i'm you know i'm very bullish
about that part of the the american economy and freeberg what are your thoughts on private
markets and obviously you're building private companies you have unlimited capital to build
them i take it given your track record i spend
50:21
most of my time accepting rejections from
my very close investor friends in my various projects so i wouldn't say that that ever
becomes true i'll tell you the truth uh um still selling every day dialing for dollars but um
no there are certainly more investors more capital
50:38
more risk risk-taking um more kind of valuation
extending than i think as um it was the case uh pre-covered i think jamaat's point is right
though uh there is uh so so much more liquidity available through access to retail and
international market um participants um in in a
50:58
public setting than there is in a private setting
and it is because of this liquidity premium and the easy access to putting capital in um it's
just extraordinary how much as i've watched close friends and companies and companies i've
invested in i'm sure you guys have done the same
51:12
transition from private to public uh
the valuation jump is extraordinary like on on a metrics basis right so whatever
the metric might be you get public there is this flurry of of market participation as a result
it drives up there's a multiplication you're be sorry can i just say something that's such a
such an important smart thing that friedberg
51:32
said so jason for example like all of us we're all
still in the private markets and i'm not trying to take away from the private markets but what david
said is so important if you used to look at a sas deal you'd price that sas deal 10 times ar right
then there's a little bit of inflation you know uh
51:49
the rates go up um the prices that people pay
go up now all of a sudden we're paying 12 times 15 times now it's 20 times if you're growing a
hundred percent rate every year so what's happened the market has become more efficient and the
excess return is getting eaten up and so you're
52:03
like okay well that's still really good and you
wait four five six years and you think you're going to get paid the crazy thing is like once
that company transitions to the public markets i mean all of a sudden if you actually turn the
investor base over and you actually create a float
52:18
so that public market guys can buy it they'll pay
30 times that's right 35 times 40 times so there's a massive multiple expansion so companies should
be going public sooner if you think about this like if i'm trying to raise money for one of
my companies i'm going to call on my 10 20 30 friends that i know that are investors in private
markets and say hey guys do you want to look at
52:39
this company and maybe i'll get two or three
interested parties and maybe we'll kind of agree on what a fair valuation would be if i could take
that same company and instantly make it available to a million investors and all i need to do by the
way is raise 10 million dollars all i need is some
52:53
small number of them to write a couple hundred
dollar check and i'm able to fill that that round out the valuation as a result of the liquidity
available in that market is so much higher because there everyone's gonna there's
gonna be much more participation in bidding and so you know what i think chamath has tapped
into with the spat vehicle and um what robinhood
53:12
is realizing and and i don't think that we all
talk about this enough but there's this massive massive massive market of international investors
of small of international retail investors who are now rushing into u.s equities freeburg didn't
we see that in the ico craze as well where
53:29
you you i think if we took anything from the ico
craze it was and the global appetite for risk and the dot-com boom before that and i think
we have to give best ec a lot of credit here for leading the spak movement i mean what's your
take on everybody copying you down this backpack
53:43
champ at this point i had desktop metal as
an early angel investment that just spacked um i co-led the place thank you yeah and they told
me that thank you for the markup um and i've been hearing like i'm get if i'm getting inbound as an
angel investor from i literally got a cold email
53:59
from some high profile people they're like hey can
you do you have anything for us to spack i mean this is like the third or fourth time people are
coming down to my [ __ ] level of angel investing saying can you introduce us to the com guys
can you choose something to rob in it i'm like
54:10
i think you can go direct to them but what is your
take on how many spacks have been created since you like literally single-handedly restarted
the smack movement i think because i don't think you've ever got a record about this uh i'm
really proud of what we did when we created this thing two years ago i said i want to basically
create a new way of doing ipos i called it ipo
54:31
2.0 i reserved ipo a through z on the nyse i i
hope um uh to fulfill that um and i think i will um but taking a step back for a second in the year
2000 there were 8 000 public companies in america on the american stock exchanges and in the year
2020 there are 4 000. so we've shrunk in half the
54:56
number of public companies while at the same
time we've you know 10x the amount of comp uh the amount of capital and the number of people
so we don't have a large enough surface area in the public markets that's why companies
are better off going public because they're going to have a much more receptive audience of
people that are dying to own growth of any kind
55:17
what's the earliest and the media and that people
should go public well so here's the thing so like if you're like one of 30 companies in a venture
portfolio that's growing at 50 plus percent you're one of 30. but when you go public you're
one of one you know when you're growing 50 60
55:35
percent you you become very unique all of a sudden
you're a sort of a one percent kind of a company you're an outlier and so you get treated you
know incredibly well so that's the backdrop i think a company should be going public around
year five year six um what revenue footprint uh
55:53
about 50 million you know at 50 million and when
they're doubling i think that they should be going up and you know it allows them to build capital
slowly it allows them to basically contain control it minimizes dilution um i think it's a really
powerful model and then on on the number of
56:08
spacks what i would say is i think it's really
good that the market is getting diversified i think what's going to happen is like the the thing
with smacks is it's going to be no different than in some ways the banks that preceded us which
is that there's going to be a distribution you
56:23
can go to goldman sachs and that'll mean some
one thing you can go to merrill lynch or b of a or ubs or jeffries it'll mean other things you
can go to allen and company it'll mean yet another different set of things and i'm sure there's
going to be a you know an organization that
56:40
is all about cost some is going to be all about
relationships um so i just think that's going to be the distribution my personal perspective it's
probably us and maybe one or two other people who really dominate the space and i'll tell you
the only reason why i say that i think it's
56:56
going to be really important when these people
try to get these facts done what they're going to realize is it's really hard and it's hard for
a couple reasons number one is you have to marry operational insight and public market
sophistication and the founder will get really smart about being able to figure out
whether this person is just a financial arbitrager
57:16
or if the person has enough operational experience
to deeply understand the business why you have to translate it to the public markets well that's
one huge thing that i think that people will um will start to will start to hone in on
um anyways there's a bunch of other things
57:32
but um are you now competing with what i want to
sacrifice agree with the 50 million yeah yeah sure um i'm i'm cool with that you know i invest
well before that so i'd be i'd be happy for you probably have a bigger portfolio 50 million dollar
investment yeah it is it's great for for for me
57:49
and jason and i you know i i think jamal deserves
a ton of credit on this soul spac thing it is i don't know if all the listeners um are aware of
this but this back thing's become a huge wave um there's a ton of people creating them kevin
hart says a new one reed hoffman has a new one
58:04
they're you know the east coast hedge fund guys
pincus and um and then the east coast hedge funds like bill ackman whatever they're all creating
them so tremoth has really started a wave here and i think the appeal of a spac to a founder
i'll put in a plug of why i think it's a good idea for a founder to consider this is because
you essentially what what founders are used to
58:24
is doing you know private rounds right you agree
on a on an amount raise an evaluation and it's a percent dilution and you're done that's it
and it's simple right and and when you ipo and need to raise money it's not like that you
have to then work with an investment bank they'll
58:40
put together a book you do like a road show you
do this whole dog and pony thing you don't know how much money you're gonna get at the end of
that process or what the valuation is gonna be and then on top of that we know statistically
bill gurley's published all the stats the investor banks are going to rip you off so you
know so that what a spac does is it prices like a
58:59
late stage private round you just agree with the
spec promoter on a valuation and an amount raised and then on top of it you get kind of a direct
listing along with it all of a sudden you start trading as a public company and so a spac is like
a combination direct listing plus private round
59:17
and i think that's going to be appealing to a
lot of founders as they start to discover this more and more sax in a way you're saying it's
going to feel more like doing a series d than it does at roadshow and yeah i think that comfort
level for somebody like robin hood or com or data
59:32
stacks or thumbtack or any of these companies that
you and i are every company in your portfolio i'm just saying listen i got two ipos and i've got two
ipos in two years this is i think this is going to be the new thing for an early stage investors is
we're not going to count unicorns anymore we're
59:47
going to count specs we're going to count public
listings right and and i think that's the other thing by the way the other the other thing that
i'll say to founders is one is i think you need to you need to think about do these people have the
combination of operational and financial acumen in
1:00:04
the public markets um and investing experience in
the public markets and the operational credibility to describe the business and i think you can trade
off one for the other if one is so deep meaning if warren buffett was doing us back you'd say well he
has no operational experience but he's so credible
1:00:22
in the public markets then you know that's all
that matters but you need to be super super deep in one or have a really brilliant and thoughtful
level of credibility in the publics meaning an early stage investor who isn't married to somebody
who can basically say i know how hedge funds work
1:00:38
i've made them money and i'm gonna make them more
money and mutual funds etc is troublesome the second thing is for founders you have to really
make sure you understand what is in it for the person that's doing this back i mean in every deal
i write a minimum of a hundred million dollars personally and that's a lot and so i skipped in
the game i feel very much at risk and so i take
1:01:00
a lot of time to make sure these things go well
and then the third is that for the spa person what i'll tell them is they're gonna find that
there's a bunch of landmines um and i'm not gonna you know say it up front because i think it'll be
fun for them to find out themselves along the way
1:01:18
but these things are hard the first one took
me two and a half years uh they're hard yeah they're hard they're hard hey let's uh swing to
the election now um and uh talk a little bit about the flip-flopping we're all doing because we've
gone from trump's a lock to trump's not a lock
1:01:34
uh you know and we've had many different theories
but here we are uh are we 60 days out now how many days till the election is it exactly 60 and then
the first debate is september 29th yeah yeah so we're we're at the 55 of 56 days mark the taping
of this and the first debate i think is september
1:01:51
30th so we're we're about three weeks away from
joe biden and trump going at it what's everybody's handicapping now the mark the markets seem to be
saying even money or a slight edge to joe biden uh what what are our thoughts i uh i think that uh
i think biden's looked the crispest he's looked
1:02:14
okay and so um is that actually encouraging or not
encouraging i think it really is because i think he's a really good like i said he doesn't have
to uh be better than donald trump he just has to not be donald trump for a lot of people and so you
know he becomes a very good do no harm alternative
1:02:33
because you know to support donald trump you
have to have a view to support joe biden you can have no view um and i think that that in general
that's a that's a demand maximizing thing to do so i think he's relatively well positioned it's the
crispest i've ever seen him on television there's
1:02:52
less stuttering there's less not stuttering but
like less like mental gaps yeah you know the what do you think of the vp choice kamala i think
safe so i i agree with tremoth that that was kind of the the take or theory on biden like a
month or two ago is that he could just run as a protest vote against trump um and um and
and that's why the basement strategy appeared
1:03:16
to make sense is that he would say nothing do
nothing go nowhere and just and just try to run as a protest vote against trump and i think that
was working a couple of months ago when you know a covet seemed a lot worse uh b the economy seemed
a lot worse we're now down to about eight percent
1:03:34
unemployment we were at 13 or 14 um and uh c
you know trump had seemed to kind of mishandle the the reaction to to floyd he seemed
to be inciting it but now we have this this issue of the the looting and violence and
predominantly democrat-run cities and i think you know trump has sort of found his sales pitch now
um in opposing um the basically the the radical
1:04:01
left um and these these mobs and and protests that
seem to be uh you know causing uh tremendous uh unrest and uh looting and violence in our
cities and i think it's i think it's a in combination with the improving conditions of the
economy and covet i think it's a winning pitch
1:04:20
for him unless biden finds a more compelling
way of responding which he has not to date um i think you know somebody like bill clinton
would know exactly how to respond i think he would you know just better instincts yeah well i think
you know he would pull a sister soldier to use a
1:04:36
term from the the you know political dictionary
where you know maybe he would take this crazy new book in defense of looting and figure out you
know and give a speech denouncing that i mean he would find somebody to his left who represents you
know a fringe of the the left that he presumably
1:04:51
doesn't support and find a way to distance
themselves or denounce them like yeah maybe like antifa like you know the the anyone you
know any of the leftovers in portland looting in portland i think there's a lot of targets
nobody wants nobody wants to support that and
1:05:06
so biden comes out and says hey we don't support
that and it gives him that law and order vote but and he hasn't done he hasn't really done
that i mean so two of my favorite political pundits right now are andrew sullivan and matt
uh taibi who are you know very uh they're strong supporters of biden they're very anti-trump
but they think he's failing on sort of this
1:05:27
these issues uh because he's not he's not figuring
out the right way to uh to denounce what's happening i think a lot of this has to do with
when kids go back to school and the death rate uh of kovid and as i was tweeting and i got i got
a lot of people angry at me um about tweeting this
1:05:46
but i said i think this is a setup for trump to
go into the first debate with you know well under you know six seven hundred deaths a day
and then the next debate in october with you know call it three or four hundred that's a
day and basically declare that he did solve kovid
1:06:00
because we've been trending down for five
weeks now and he started wearing a mask six weeks ago seven weeks ago july 11 was the
first day he wore a mask a cynic would say he almost timed mask wearing which is
obviously what we talked about in the first episode or two of all in podcasts was our
discussion about why is wearing a mess so
1:06:18
difficult for him and it seems like he slowplayed
it he's you know he set his he slow played he hit a set on the turn and here he is like he wore the
mask on july 11 he wore it four months late but guess what as chamath was saying everybody wears
a mask and every and these things go down in italy
1:06:36
we're going to come into the first debate what if
it's 400 deaths a day and then the second debate it's 200 that's the day and then our kids are
back in school in october which seems to be the case right all the schools are saying you know be
ready for october to open and what if he actually
1:06:49
does have a vaccine that has so much credibility
or any of these high-speed testing machines come on i mean this could be a setup of all setups
for him to just you know drop the microphone hey look the economy has had an all-time
high and kova debts are at an all-time low well i mean yeah i think democrats are on fire
that to me seems like the the trajectory i mean
1:07:09
um we spent a long time on this pod talking about
what a disaster uh san francisco and california are those are one-party states and cities and i
think you know we're not just electing a person as president we're also electing a party and a
movement and a governing philosophy and however
1:07:27
much uh trump is um you know disliked by a lot
of people i think a lot of people are looking at you know i i think they they may like joe biden
personally and and think that he personally is safe but they don't like the movement and the
party and the governing philosophy that is now
1:07:43
associated with biden so if you had to put your
entire net worth on it chamath biden or trump uh biden i think sacks entire net worth i
i i would uh i predict trump at this moment wait you predict but you but you wouldn't put your
entire net worth on if you had to i could see your
1:08:04
hesitation you want trump trump to win oh sure
but you would you wouldn't put you wouldn't put your entire net worth on him but yeah of course
not you would put it this is this is about a 55 sort of thing so biden has a 55 chance of
winning so even though you're voting for trump
1:08:19
you are not going you would not put your fortune
on fighting you you asked me who i predict right now i'm predicting trump you'll remember on the
last part i predicted biden so it moves depending on what i see yeah i mean yeah and i'm going to
go with yeah but it just knows jason i think i
1:08:35
think a better way to get a better answer is not
to force somebody to put their entire net worth on the line it's just okay who do you think is
going to win who do you think is going to win sex how many times have to answer this question
you think trump's going to win you actually
1:08:49
yes yes i do actually really that's fascinating
and it's free remember that i remember it's the first time i've seen it i think it's i think it's
the same as it was last time for me and has been most of this process it's a coin
flip and it still is a coin flip and uh there's a lot of noise between here and 60
days from here all right well then if we if we do
1:09:10
think it's a coin flip freeberg what happens if
trump is elected again some people think this is all institutions are broken forever america
is broken forever hyperbolic that that's the perception on both sides right so the perception
and the motivation on both sides is democracy is crumbling and the resultant action is to elect the
the person you think will restore democracy the
1:09:32
reality is both candidates to some degree might
move us a little bit further away from democracy and um some might argue that trump makes us feel
a little bit more like an autocratic dictatorial regime and some might say that biden makes us
feel a little bit more like an aoc socialist
1:09:48
regime it's not all the way as if we had bernie in
the seat but um you know the the reaction uh isn't necessarily let's go back to the middle let's
become a centrist government let's uh let's have good political debate and a good by the way the
one show i've been watching a lot of lately just
1:10:02
to nostalgia to chamoth's tweet earlier today make
me feel better about life is west wing where you know jed bartlett is the president and he wants
a great national debate we all want to have this intellectual exercise of coming to the truth
and coming to the best decision for the nation
1:10:17
and i don't think anyone feels like that's the
case today nor will that be the case tomorrow with either of these guys in the seat and i
think the the point then becomes well who's gonna better align with my values and you know um it is
really a crumbling democracy kind of motivation i
1:10:32
would guess if you were to survey people as
to how they're making their choice if trump is elected freeberg do you feel it is an acute you
know existential crisis for america as a democracy you personally i don't i don't think democracies
end um with a bang i think they end with a whimper
1:10:48
and i think that's been the case historically
and you know no democracy has uh has lasted our our democracy in the u.s has has lasted longer
uh than many um but democracies i'll just tell you my point of view on this democracies ultimately
enable uh freedom of operation and free markets
1:11:08
that um that result in greater progress than any
other governing system the problem with progress is that progress is asymmetric you have some
people who progress at a much greater rate um than than most and and it is that delta that
motivates the end of that system ultimately while everyone in the united states or the average
and even the bottom quartile of the population in
1:11:31
the us is better off than they were 50 years ago
in terms of income and health care and shelter and access to food and access to all these things
they're the top one percent of the us is further ahead than the median and it is that delta
that motivates the end of democracy and it
1:11:44
is that is which is then perceived to be unfair
about this governing system and that ultimately results in fascism or socialism and then fascism
results socialism ultimately restricts anyone from progression and that's why fascism and
socialism ultimately end up in in some sort of you know democratic outcome and it
is a cycle and you know we're kind of
1:12:03
in this you know awkward phase of trying to
figure out what the hell we're going to be next and i don't think that awkward phase is realized
in the next presidential term but it is going to be realized in our lifetime i think that that's
a really good point i completely agree with that
1:12:18
go biden go please win uh okay wrapping up here uh
media selections uh of your bestie summer bestie book bestie tv show bestie binge what do you got
you got a bestie book recommendation saks you got a bestie uh yeah my my recommendations will be
a little different you know i've been i've been
1:12:36
subscribing to a lot of newsletters on sub stack
yeah and i found that to be pretty interesting and like i mentioned two of my favorite writers
especially around um you know politics and election time andrew sullivan and matt taibi so
check it out windows open enough to get to those two who are super polarizing they actually kicked
andrew sullivan out of new york magazine for
1:13:00
making other writers at new york magazine feel
unsafe with his words all my favorite writers seem to have been cancelled at some previous
publication and now they've set themselves up on sub stack so it is amazing how the overton window
has closed uh besties do you have a bestie binge
1:13:15
a bestie book or a bestie newsletter or a bestie
podcast you want to share with the besties i would give a shout out to a book uh called americana
which is about uh it's a history of american capitalism told in chapters for every call it like
you know five to seven or ten year decade period
1:13:34
it's really interesting for people into business
it's written by a guy named boo srinivasan okay bestie freeberg what do you got best a queen
of quinoa i took a week off and hung out at the beach and i've been to watched uh godfather one
two and three as i've done several times in my
1:13:52
past i also watched uh one of my favorite top
five films of all time there will be blood by um it's just such a beautiful film it got me down
yeah it got me down this research path on the standard oil company and i ended up first off
i ended up reading all mario pouta's godfather uh which is very graphic and interesting but
if you've seen the movie i don't think you get
1:14:17
much more from the book um but then um i started
reading ron chernow's um biography of uh oh yes rockefeller yeah and so i don't know if anyone's
made it through that 727 page two i got about 500 pages in it is detailed it's detailed so it's
not you know it's not probably um you won't gain
1:14:36
as much from it as perhaps reading a wikipedia
article but uh the standard oil the the era if you think about what technology is what we call
technology in the us today in our world and and it's mostly software and now in increasingly
biotech um you know there have been different
1:14:53
eras of technology and different areas of monopoly
uh and and just hearing the story of the railroads and standard oil and what took place in this
country it's incredible and it's so analogous to what's gone on and and um the outrage and the
dissent and the fake news that goes on about these
1:15:09
people as they've been successful um you know
it really is uh history teaches us everything and it's uh so i just you know um i just in
the era of standard oil just learning about um the stories of that time and the people of
that time this is one vote that's that's been um
1:15:24
you know an interesting part of the tale besties i
gotta go i love you guys love you too i'll see you jason and fried burgers i'll see you on thursday
yeah stake it up let's go outside uh i'll just give my closing the fish that ate the whale a
book about sam zumari who was the banana king
1:15:41
and uh another uh interesting book you might like
i love capitalism by ken langone who um you know built uh he built uh home depot and it's a pretty
great story about both stories of capitalism and i think you all like them freeburg if you
like the um yeah the books you were talking
1:15:58
about yeah all right everybody we'll see you next
time and uh don't forget to rate and subscribe and uh we'll be taping another episode
in another five six seven or eight weeks hopefully earlier than that uh take
care sacks take care free burger take care of chim off and we'll see you
all next time on the all in pakist