E52: Trump's SPAC, peak venture liquidity, tech as an economic ladder, Dems overplaying their hand

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only sacks can lose 20 pounds and look worse sacks you know with with all with all these gains and all your funds i would really love for you to cash them out and buy a belt ask your wife or your house manager to help you find slim fit shirts at the uh the local macy's you'd literally look like you're wearing a parachute i've never i've never worn

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scene fit stand up for a second stand up i can't i'm not i'm not wearing pants oh my god can somebody call hr are you really not wearing pants i got no i got i got shorts on no that's not true are you really wearing shorts yeah i am no he's not he's lying no i'm not put your leg up show us that pasty leg no [ __ ] way oh my god oh my god how big are those shorts that's him

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he's like dom de louise and he lost 100. change your wardrobe oh my god those are like two toothpicks sticking out of a tent it's like somebody set up a circus tent and didn't tie down the ends he's wearing a parachute and a circus tent oh my god [Music] [Music] hey everybody hey everybody welcome to another episode of the all in podcast with us today again yes

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uh with us again today the dictator chamf polly papatia and the queen of quinoa david friedberg in front of some bad art and from the mausoleum a schvelt fighting weight minus 20 pounds the rain man himself david sac you guys gave me the motivation i mean this podcast you needled me for months and i'm like okay i'm gonna lose the weight so i've lost

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it what was your peak weight in the last 12 months i think i was at in the high 190s and i'm down to about 172 now so it's about 25 pounds wow since since about april or may that's really great bro that's fantastic i mean honestly your family thanks you i thank you as a friend too no but seriously keep it around longer really [ __ ] great

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i'm really i'm really proud of you exercising too thank you or you just cut your diet it's it's uh i i'm doing the same exercise regimen i was doing before which is just running occasionally but um but it's all diet it's all diet it's it's frankly severe calorie restriction and your your unique product has been very helpful but is it really severe

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calorie restriction thanks for the plus i think so yeah we were talking about munich for the syndicate on the call-in app the other day hold on i'm allowed to plug i'm allowed to plug you just need to be unique so you could put a call in plug you know you're violating the rules of the road that i wrote down it's not a violation of the rules because i'm not a

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shareholder in unique i don't have any interest in that but are you negotiating a deal no but no i'm not funding munich no i haven't but free book can i invest we should actually throw that one in the syndicate if you guys want uh yeah munich's great i i did it i lost some weight on it sexy poo what's your uh what's your uh basal calorie burn did you calculate

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that i'm not what does that mean like you're a steady state calorie burn on a normal day like if you're not exercising or whatever like yeah based on your height your bmi your weight all that stuff yeah i did i did look it up and i think it's around 2000 calories a day but but the thing that's super interesting yeah there's a calculator online where you can enter your your

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height weight and age and it'll tell you how many calories that you burn every day so if you want to lose weight you need to consume fewer calories than that it's that simple everything else that people do around weight loss that is not that is basically some sort of game you just have to consume fewer calories than you're burning but the thing that's

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really interesting about that calculator is that the number of calories you can burn every year actually changes as you get older it goes down so the reason why people gain weight as they get older is because you're in a habit of consuming a certain number of calories every day but you know as you get older like every year you can consume say 50 fewer

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calories a day something like that and that basically becomes fat if you can if you consume at the same level so you have to cut your consumption down as you get older or you will gain weight and in addition to your metabolic fitness meaning like you know having your exercise level stay up to increase your metabolism overall you can also add

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muscle mass a lot of people lose muscle mass over time muscle burns more calories per day just to kind of keep functioning so the more muscle mass you have the higher your basal and you lose like half a pound to a pound a year after 40 is that correct directionally uh free breath i don't know but that sounds about right yeah yeah that's what i read that is about

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right and i think it's because this dynamic where people are just consuming the same amount but they don't realize that they can't burn it and so it becomes fat you know so in my case first of all you got to get your caloric intake down to 2000 just to get to steady state and that can be a challenge but if you really want to lose weight

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you need to burn you need to basically consume a few hundred calories less than that and if you can consume 500 calories less than that per day that's considered rapid weight loss and then you can actually see the results which is very motivating yeah so i like the idea of just going for the like significant the 500 calories where are you you're at

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1500 calories a day yeah i mean i think so i mean i haven't like precisely measured it out but i've been trying to go for and they said did you skip a meal is that how you get to the minus 500 calories yeah i will either skip breakfast or i'll do a very light breakfast um and then for lunch i'll do like something entirely plant-based like like suit like a

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vegetable soup of some kind and then when it comes to dinner it'll be a more normal dinner but no carbs no two dinners one bottle of wine yeah wow no no you have a good system yeah vegetables first yes then fish then poultry then red chicken meat so so it's it's not you're not like entirely all one thing or another you're not like all vegan which would be hard you're

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it's not like you're all uh there's no red meat or something like that you can do a little of everything but you have to have a weighting and the weighting is based on what foods have are the most calorie dense so the mistake that i think people make and i think it's one of these trick diets is like with these protein like the south

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beach type diet or the paleo diet right where they're trying to trick their body into ketosis and all they do is eat a lot of red meat but those steaks have a lot of calories in them yeah so it only works if you do it perfectly where you totally trick your body and keeping your body in ketosis forever is just not sustainable in my view it's hard so i

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think you're a lot better off just eating less calorie dense food and steak is very calorie dense so you know again you're trying to speak first then fish i i rarely eat beef uh but i get to eat it uh today and i'm having steak night dre's coming over for dinner and in the season he whenever i text him and i say hey what do you want for dinner

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draymond's always like fish fish fish fish fish and i said bro i i get to eat steak so [ __ ] rarely uh and today we're having steak i can't wait my mom's gonna get to when you get to it's because you're on some diet basically no no i do i just observe that i don't eat meat any more than once a week maximum and right now i'm probably averaging once

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every two weeks maybe even once every three weeks and to your point it's much better i i do these uh scans you know you can do these kind of body scans to know what your your total water weight your total muscle weight your total weight your total body fat all of that stuff and your basic metabolic rate and i just kind of track it like once a quarter just to see where it is

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um and i i agree with you like i've really found that uh i can't eat red meat anymore like it's like it just really [ __ ] me up but it's so good right it's so good yeah oh my god it's so good the other one other trick is that you should never consume calories like in liquid form right you should only be drinking water tea coffee things like that that don't have

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any calories people go to starbucks in the morning and they they drink 100 calories yeah 400 plus calories then they have a you know cinnamon roll or whatever or banana at the start yeah i mean that's it i mean you're gonna be gaining weight on just from going to starbucks in the morning there's no now if you do an americano with a splash of

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almond milk or something that's like 5 10 calories that's fine but um you you have to stop drinking calories and then the one exception is like last night we did poker we were drinking wine so that's fine you know i didn't because i thought the wine was [ __ ] yeah the whole game was horrible let me just tell you all the things that we're doing

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okay number one i [ __ ] came all the way up the stairs last night normally hosts sacks over the top number one is over the top in air quotes number one nobody arrived on time because nobody respects you enough to show up on youtube oh jake j kell and i played heads up for an hour before anyone else showed up we were there from seven to eight just playing heads up it was fun

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it was fun i took all the freeberg's money i owned three percent of munich you as the host didn't show up till 9 30 and you spent all of the time on the phone trading outside in the room trading japanese bonds are doing whatever you were doing talking to peter that showed up at 10 30. you know the game was basically randomly in the muck half the night nobody was

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observing any good decorum run it once run it twice there was just nothing going on you had stale fish okay just sitting there rotting stinking up the whole [ __ ] room you know you had 2013 colton which is not even a good year just fyi okay 2012 okay 2015. do that i mean so anyways i thought it was a disaster i stormed and up and i left

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he did rage quit and it was great because we're playing plo finally sacks loses all this money may i respond but i did have three bowls of ice cream which i regretted this morning all right sex in your defense why were you why did you leave your guests for three hours while you talked about your own home bro it wasn't it wasn't three hours you guys were being well attended

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too i made sure that you were well attended too and then i had to duck out well attended to what are we preschool what do that what are you talking about executed actually a couple of trades so what were the calls well you know crypto is like a 24 7 market these days crypto never sleeps so david sacks has to excuse himself um yeah i got wired at

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800k uh hong kong gold had to uh yeah so okay so first of all the food was amazing we had like this incredible we had this incredible you didn't eat it you had brussels sprouts you had the brussels sprouts you ate none of that i'm on a diet i did eat the sushi there's like this incredible sushi spread we had so much sushi mostly didn't get

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eaten then we had pizzas got the best late night pizzas from two different pizza places got delivered there was more than one pizza per person in terms of selection it was tony's napolita you had pretty great homemade caramel sauce poured over tomorrow no dulce de leche that was great yeah props to the chef put dolce de leche on the vanilla yeah and the colga in 2013

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estate nine is a fantastic ball of wine that i i had another ball of it earlier this week we just lost 42 of the audience they are now on the youtube comments saying why are these people why do we listen to this pod every week and here here's here's the reality moth is you were very quiet and sort of sullen the whole night from really the

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time you got there kind of true you didn't really participate in the conversation and skye hypothesized that the reason why you were so withdrawn is because you were upset that the game had moved from your place to my place and you thought somehow i was trying to hijack your game which is not true we do a game at my place maybe no no no i told this guy no

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no i told i told sky text already i said hey guys we normally run the game thursdays at my house i'm happy to come up but it's harder for me because that's almost due right so you were upset from the get-go that you were no i wasn't i told i told him that pretty friedberg and sacks have not come to the last three games at champa's house is

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there something going on here is it just the commute i think the commute is hard i mean in fairness to you guys give me a charge i only missed the last game i went i went well sax hasn't been coming and i know he's in he's in town is there something going on stocks where you can't no it's any more you haven't i mean it's either the commute or sometimes i'm out of town

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you know so you were in town the last couple times i don't know i think you're kind of you and chamoth maybe need to go for a walk okay i'll come i'll come the next what's next game whenever the next game is you should come but i mean what are you doing staying home playing chess with peter thiel on your ipad i mean come on both me and freeburg are about

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to have kids we cannot oh the game is over no no no for another couple weeks yeah we're gonna revert back to that terrible covet app ipad app playing poker where like everyone can talk to each other oh the chinese app that was uh fixed with a bunch of people colluding everyone was so angry yeah well we'll get it back in the next one let's start our show let's start

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let's start the show uh first up in uh spackland uh donald trump has done a spec and it's for his trump media and technology group uh and he's launching an app called truth social which you can preload i guess in the app store you're allowed to pre-order stuff now that was kind of an interesting feature um the company will

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merge with the spec called digital world acquisition corporation ticker symbol currently dwac it's led by somebody named patrick orlando uh who is a florida-based investment manager i'm not making that up uh i don't know if orlando is actually his name um he founded a sugar trading business and built two energy distribution businesses allegedly uh or supposedly um

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friedrich said maybe he's a real estate guy who knows the stock peaked at 157 a share uh this morning friday morning so the stack started at 10 bucks it started at 10. so that's 16x before dropping back down to 100 it's become a bit of a meme stock on wall street bets trading was halted it puts this at something in the range of a you know well over a 10 billion dollar market cap

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and there is literally no technology no team and a bunch of technologists looked at the source code just by doing view source i think on the on the web pages and uh there's an open source project i think called master dawn or master tan i don't know i think it's mastered on um that they seem to have just copied the code from it's it's like a distributed

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version of twitter and it seems they just cut and pasted the code and didn't even change the license you know like the gpl license we were supposed to give credit to who wrote the code so no business no team no ip no users no money no office no nothing it's basically uh it's an nft this is an nft basically it's an exchange traded nft it's exciting

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donald trump the value of everybody the value of this thing is like closer to donald trump is closer to 20 billion because there's a 1.7 billion dollar value if they hit certain stock prices according to the press release they put out but there's not a good sec filing on it so at 1.7 that means he got 170 million shares which are now worth let's say at

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157 dollars a share donald trump has effectively 20 plus billion dollars oh so he's finally a billionaire and he's finally a billionaire of equity value in his stake in this actually a billionaire and i think this and this is the absolute like penultimate nft it is traded against a caricature that is a one-of-a-kind completely rare this is gonna all of his quote-unquote

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media ip is going to be licensed into this stack and so if you want to own a piece of it this is the way to own it and people are trading it like an index on the donald trump um uh character it's an it's an index on that i think it's a it's an index on the right i think it's an index on an alternative to fox news to traditional media

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the traditional media it's a huge [ __ ] you to actually the mainstream media i think this is good twitter oh my god it's going to tilt the hell out of like the folks that write at the at the new york times my god shaq dorsey's tweet by the way no i gotta i'll i'll put it in the chat but he kind of um he made a comment on it after there was a screenshot i mean

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let's be honest it's a grift i mean this is just this is the ultimate peak rift in the peak bubble of our lifetime period i think it's a vote like peter thiel said yesterday you know like bitcoin is a vote against the establishment this is a vote against the establishment all right what are the chances that an actual app launches sacks like and when

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would that actually happen when can this uh crew of [ __ ] actually write a line of code and actually release a product you know how hard it is to release products yeah that's a good question i mean what they're saying is that they're going to launch a new social network i guess twitter style called truth social and the primary interface will consist

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of a feed of short posts from users you follow sounds familiar however these posts will be called truths instead of tweets and reshares will be known as retruce wow so that's what's coming and um the the the slide deck that's available on the company's website list twitter facebook netflix disney plus cnn iheart media google cloud amazon web services

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as some of tmtg's current and future competitors so basically you know trump is proposing an alternative to all the traditional media and social networks that have basically banned him but i do think that the trading here does represent there is i think a groundswell for for social media platforms that are not controlled by big tech and you know

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there's trump has 70 million tech voters sorry 70 million voters of those probably 30 to 40 million you would say are would be fans of his on social media he's been banned from twitter and facebook and this is his response he's going to create his own platform i don't know whether ultimately be successful but i think what you're seeing here is the demand for alternatives to

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you know sensorious platforms that are controlled by big tech so if he has 30 million real fans chamath what number of them would download the app and participate in the first year he had a line he had 90 million followers on twitter jacob which doesn't count but that's half of the twitter registered account 70 million people vote for him so what are the real fans not just

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republicans who don't want hillary i don't think that's the way to think about this i would i would view this as differently than this what's in what's insane is you have this entity here which is essentially a cash shell that's now basically you know 300 odd million dollars of cash plus what looks like 18 or 19 billion dollars of brand value

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like of intangible goodwill and the sum total of that is is what the total market cap of this thing is so if it is 18 billion then that's what it is what this allows them to do and this is where it kind of gets interesting is these guys what it shows me is they could come back and actually raise an enormous amount of money they could issue you know a secondary stock sale

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they could do a convert they could raise billions of dollars because the demand is there and then with those billions of dollars they could actually do something really meaningful they could go and acquire an existing app jason call it they could acquire engineers in a product that already exists they could maybe hire yeah they could acquire a traditional

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broadcast outlet and give trump uh you know a way to short-circuit his launch of a fox competitor so i actually think this is a huge vote i think david's right it's a vote against censorship it's a vote for trump it's a vote for the right it's a vote for alternative uh voices and as a result i think a lot of folks in the mainstream who have

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trump derangement syndrome are now going to be you know reawoken and in complete full tilt for a while yeah it's pretty tilty uh tmtg plus will be uh you know it's terrible branding but the tmtg plus is going yes you're already tilted i'm super i'm not telling you i mean i think the whole thing is just a super grift i don't think they'll ever get a

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product out the door if they do i think they get to maybe five 10 million users they're going to write it up they've got they've got a 20 billion dollar market cap they could do whatever the hell they think it's all people just manipulating the stock like they could like said they could turn that into into cash they could sell i mean they could turn it

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off i don't think they can get the 20 billion trump today in one day is worth more than two times the new york times can you imagine what's going on in the new york yeah and that's just brand well let's see i mean not all these stacks stay at 150 a share you know so so jacob i i think you're right that people outside the tech industry really underestimate how hard it is to

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build technology products that are any good you know that have a good ui they're delightful to users it does require real talent and if you're not sort of from the industry you don't even know what kind of talent you need to hire however i think jamaat has a really good point that with this kind of market cap they could acquire their way to a

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portfolio of assets like for example okay rumble right now has become the alternative to youtube among yeah not just conservatives but anyone who's who's been de-platformed there's a lot of leftists now there's locals.com that you invested in local yes exactly i invested in locals which is dave rubin's thing so but but just to take rumble for a second because it's kind of the

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youtube competitor you know they've got something like 30 million uh users plus it's a very it's a it's a pretty big and growing audience but there is locals there are other assets and you could and i think the last valuation of rumble i think it was announced when peter thiel actually invested i think it was around a 500 million dollar valuation even if you

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paid a gigantic premium to that i mean if your market caps 20 billion you could spend 2 billion on that you could spend 5 billion on that yeah you know by the way sorry just to dispel this idea you don't need good ui if you have the right feature set and reddit is the perfect example where they've always been on the side of free speech

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and they've always been on the side of allowing people to vocalize and pursue their own passions even if some of those things were really you know for the mainstream uh beyond the pale their ui is terrible but they have thrived because that single feature dominates any desire for elegant ui and so i think what you're going to find over this next iteration of these apps

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is how valuable free speech is and there are enough examples whether it's rumble or reddit or others that show you that the ability to not be censored dominates 4chan discord they're all very it's going to it's going to tweet it's going to tweak oh my god the heroes uh data analysis and marketing during his you know 2016 campaign and they did

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get that guy pascal or whatever and they figured out cambridge analytica so they did figure out how to get some tech people right sax to you know can i just say one thing the other super tilty thing is people will want to fade this trade and you know we're going to be they're going to know they're going to be silently wishing for this thing to

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crater and i think there's going to be a lot of profit taking on this because i think it's very speculative but i think we will all be shocked at the actual closing enterprise value when this thing despacks because it will despack and we're all going to kind of scratch our heads thinking how did we not see this i mean i didn't see this i would have

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never and there's going to be at least a billion dollars of cash available when they do their second at least at least i mean they can do whatever they want yeah they're going to have more more cash available to them to invest i mean he is he is firmly back in the game and by the way one of the comments scaramucci made this morning it's a very

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astute one which is i'm rooting for the stack because if this actually does despack at this valuation donald trump is not running for president again because he's now got a 20 billion dollar media business or 20 million of equity value in this new media business that he's gonna keep running sacks what do you think uh that could be a win-win for uh the republican party

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but you know you're buying the stock you're joining the board saks is leading the b yeah i mean i i i think chemotherapy is a good point that sites like reddit have shown that you know like a beautiful ui is not necessarily the feature that users want in every case i do think you still have to have some tech talent involved in order to produce a good

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product just to give you an example so this product wasn't supposed to have its soft launch until next month but somehow some users found a way to access the site and they were setting up accounts within hours of the announcement so one vandal claimed the at donald j trump handle and posted a picture of a pig with extremely large testicles so no now i would just submit that you at

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least need to have enough tech talent to prevent something like that from happening yes i mean maybe it wasn't a vandal i mean maybe trump posted that photo to himself i don't know it's not it's not impossible it's not proud but yeah but but anyway my point is they still have to assemble the tech talent to build this or i like the idea better

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of just acquiring the the collection of assets that they need and i think you're right i think it's multi-faceted i think it's a social network a lot twitter i think it's probably some sort of video do not underestimate the number of people in wall street who are uh on the right and who will help these guys make very good decisions even if they do it sort of you know

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quote unquote clandestinely meaning they'll never be on the cover of helping them do a big m a or whatever but there are there are a lot of those folks that will help make sure that this despacks cleanly that they have access to capital that they know how to go and raise and tap the markets and what's beautiful about the public markets and you can say

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this is you know an issue but it's not in this case is that you know you can go on and basically support this guy in a way that's relatively anonymous because it's not like you have to disclose that you own this stuff if you're if you're a private investor so i think that uh he's back in the game in a big way and i think this is going to

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really shake up the media landscape if they can execute well they just need to think about this as an m a vehicle not as an engineering and product creation video yes 100 percent agree 100 percent agree would you sell call in for a billion dollars in equity value at a hundred dollars a share to these guys today yes i can answer on his behalf yes yes

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is that what you were doing i'll take the 20x no no i'll take 20 x in eight months jkl you want to be my agent i think you have a quicker line to trump no no no no uh i think actually this might be like to peter till's point like maybe don't take the product uh literally but take the market cap seriously uh because this is a lot of if they can keep even a

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five billion dollar market up i do agree that does make them dangerous in terms of buying assets and i do think they can get the first five all of these right-wing services get five to he gets five to ten million people to sign up for him even his like signal he was at like a million you know very quickly he's got like a signal or telegram group

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i think and he got you know he could buy maybe he could buy ben shapiro's daily caller that's a big media brand on the right that people listed yeah the number one and keep keep bench up here there to run it because trump needs operators and the more disruptive thing isn't to buy stuff on the right it's to buy stuff in the center or even stuff on the left again it's it's very

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hard if you're a public company it's impossible actually if if trump media group now has a currency and tries to acquire assets the directors have a fiduciary responsibility to actually vote in favor of that deal because they're not allowed to look at who the buyer is and say no we don't want to do that so if he puts out a reasonable fair

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market offer price you know of the closing price plus 30 35 percent there is not a single public market director in the world i don't care how democrat tick they are or how much of a donor they are they'll always vote the deal because otherwise they will get personally sued and that's the liability in public markets so i would be very careful about this thing

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this thing is going to get really serious really quickly i wonder if there's a tentpole [Music] media personality that he could acquire in the same way spotify got joe rogan and netflix got dave chappelle back to there's somebody they could offer a hundred dollars they shouldn't do that they should do what sax just said which is that you know that that list of like

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the dumpster fire on facebook every day which is like dan bonigno and ben shapiro and blah blah he should just go and get all those guys yeah that's what i just said round them up but i wonder if there's like a comedian you know like you know bill mars obviously hates him but then is there somebody in the middle who is like a notable comedian on the right

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sax i'm not fully vetted on your all right buddies but who's who's in that alt-right cohort that well i think there's there's comics who are willing to be politically correct and non-woke um so i think what's his name like bill burr or something like that is isn't he net team netflix but yeah i wonder if a bill burr he hates trump though i think or but i mean who's the guy who got

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cancelled for exposing himself leah louis c.k louis c.k i mean i'm not saying he's conservative right but um you know no no he's available he's highly he's available so i mean actually one thing to think about is you know trump got all these people to do like the monthly 25 reoccurring subscription and we got a little bit of trouble for that because

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people didn't know they were signing up for it but i wonder if he could get a million people or five million people to pay ten bucks a month for the saks yeah absolutely if there's something there behind the the curtain i mean if it's nothing but like i don't know a newsletter of his like extemporaneous tweets i don't think so but if there's

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real content there from people they care about why wouldn't they wait a second what if he just did every friday night a rally on a video service where he just did one of his two or three hour stand up routines and had different people come up and talk like his pillow guy and all of his other weirdos i think this could be like i think this could be like

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the oprah winfrey network where she may like anchor the temple show or something but there's a lot of other creators on the network i think that's the opportunity yes the question the question quite frankly though is whether he's operational enough to actually drive to these outcomes i think it's very easy for us to imagine what you could do with 20 billion dollars and his

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media brand and the question is just does this get executed that way now does because it's not going to be a real estate sugar guy from florida that's going to manage this thing to an outcome does twitter then let him back on the platform if he has this competing platform does facebook how does that know i think at that point they have the

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perfect excuse not to let him back on which is like hey we're not censoring him because he's there's an alternative they don't want to let him back on in a way i guess you have to ask yourself if twitter had let him come back on and gave him his platform back after like a six month or a year time out would he even be doing this no he says

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in he has a press announcement where he says that i mean he says here that trump media and technology group's mission is to create a rival to the liberal media consortium and fight back against the big tech companies in silicon valley which have used their unilateral power to silence opposing voices in america this is what's given him the opportunity

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is their censorship their censorship just created a 20 billion dollar war chest i mean the most tilting thing of this whole conversation is it's worth twice as much as the new york times i've been saying on this show for over a year that censorship backfires in ways you can't expect they never think through the second and third order

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consequences of their censorship it's like when angela merkel came out and said hey like wait did did twitter just de-platform a head of state why are we depending on them i mean there's all these second-order consequences they never think through and now they're coming back to bite them in the ass yeah i mean forcing people to get vaccines is now leading to whatever

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percentage of people just retiring or this you know or not coming back to work and that's causing a bit of bedlam in the economy as we talked about all these authoritarian tendencies create a backlash of some kind and if our ruling elites would just have a lighter hand there'd be a lot less tension in the country we had an interesting discussion

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last night at during uh but i think it was on the other side of the table so maybe you two didn't hear it but we were talking about is biden gonna run again in 2024 and what would that look like and i just said i i can't imagine biden in a debate three years from now like he he doesn't seem i don't want to be derogatory here but he doesn't seem very crisp the last time

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four years later so what do we think chances of biden running in 2024 chances of trump running in 2024 with all this information and what would that look like zero and zero you're zero zero free berg do you even care nope yeah i didn't think so right look i mean i i think trump's going to run this 20 billion media empire and he's going to be happy doing that

32:59

i think if it's not biden it's going to be a proxy so um it's not going to be too far off uh in terms of what the you're deep in this uh sax you're hosting uh as people were talking about on twitter uh and you tilted all of san francisco or ninety percent of it you're hosting desantis for a fundraiser it's his first fundraiser for his re-election as

33:19

governor he hasn't said anything about his plans in 2024 it's way too early for that um do i think biden or trump could be on the ballot i think it's 50 50 for both of them all right but i would like to see but look instead of having two 80 year olds running against each other i would like to see say two 40 something or just younger leaders

33:37

you know giving america a real choice all right where do we want to jump off to now venture capital venture capital because clearly sax is is having extraordinary liquidity events uh at 11 o'clock at night on a thursday night that freeberg money is not made it's simply transferred from one perception to another from one perception to another there's a wall street uh speech

34:01

saks was like in his uh he was doing monologues from wall street last night he's leaving he was leaving the poker table to go to into his soundproof chamber that oversees his estate next to the poker room and from there he was on his phone screaming pacing back and forth doing deals gecko style he had his 300 pound trader next to him he was placing orders

34:23

and um something's going on in the market i mean sax you know do tell but clearly the uh the venture liquidity um uh waterfall that's going on right now is playing into well it's a lot of it it is bonkers wait yes we got to show that chart we should talk about let me just highlight this highlight the statistics jkl because it is truly extraordinary

34:41

how much liquidity venture firms are having this year all right well just to look at um the value of u.s venture-backed companies that went public or were acquired 290 billion 280 billion in 19 and 20. and then uh this year uh 2021 so far we're at 590 billion it's literally doubled but if you look back it was about 110 billion in 2018 so we

35:04

are now five six x where we were five years ago uh and this is again the value of u.s venture u.s venture-backed companies that went public or required so the liquidity is bonkers and we're seeing that in real estate uh you know jets being bought whatever the vc industry has experienced three years of record-breaking exits uh this is a twitter user who tweeted it

35:26

2021 is obviously smashing all those levels yeah i mean for for the last until the last three years for the previous 15 20 years the exits per year were in this 50 to 100 billion range then they've jumped up to 600 billion in the last year and in the previous two years it was 300 billion each so yeah i mean it's just more money has has been made

35:49

or distributed out in the venture capital industry in the last three years i think the previous 20 years combined at least the last three years yeah that doesn't that doesn't even factor in what's happening in crypto right and crypto is just like i'm sure there's something here coinbase is in here no like like like in my portfolio as an example like you know like venture

36:10

returns which have which have been excellent across the board so forget mine just everybody's venture value kind of like slowly ticks up over time right because like you know you're doing this work and then that work gets valued and then somebody else comes in and raises a new round and you know you you hopefully can defend your pro rata

36:27

yadda yadda so i it it does create a lot of compounding value but it's you know and and it's relatively fast but compared to crypto it's unbelievably slow whereas in crypto you know quarter over quarter you have these swings that i've i've personally never ever seen like i was telling you this story yesterday we owned something which i'm not going to tell you what it is but um

36:48

it's a crypto thing and uh our nav i had to mark my book up a billion net asset value on that asset i had to mark it up because you know we have to submit to our auditors and just keep it an accurate sense of what our book value is a billion dollars in a quarter i've never seen that in my entire investing career and here's how what it

37:10

does to me and my whole team i have a budget for next year of how much i want to spend instantly that number goes up and what it really means is i'm probably just going to be getting the same ownership but i'm just going to be paying more for it and if i'm going through that i think everybody's going to go through it what it's going to do is it's like all of

37:27

this all of these returns are great all of these increases are great but i'm not sure that there's going to be that much more progress there's not necessarily going to be that many more startups because it's just harder and harder to find good things in the same for the same number of gps in a place and costs are going bananas salaries are off the charts

37:51

i don't know if you guys saw but stripe for example there was a tweet about how stripes starting to pay like starting engineers 280k i don't know if that's true or not but there was a tweet in twitter and i thought to myself my gosh like 20 years ago a starting engineering salary was 50 60 k in the bay area and so you've seen this incredible price

38:10

inflation so it's actually quite good again it's sort of what we talked about yesterday all of these gains eventually come back around and get recaptured and so i think that you're starting to see the beginning of this really incredible cycle of wealth transfer essentially so the funds may make it but it's going to come back to you let

38:27

me ask you a question about the crypto stuff is there any worry there that these valuations match reality because my you might have a very small float on these a lot of excitement and they're not actually products being used by customers in the real world here's the thing i because it's an internal permanent pool of capital i have no legal requirement to actually

38:47

mark okay um but the reason we do it is because we want to track nav nav and book value okay and you know i compensate my team based on how well we compound book value but you're right it's a huge um problem because i don't know how to get liquid on these things and so you see this thing sitting on your your balance sheet and you're like what do we do with

39:11

this how do you move it around you can't you cannot and so i would rather there's a there's a great guy uh he was an early pioneer private equity and um he had this phrase which he said like you know the best way to mark up a deal is right at the end so if you put in you know 10 million dollars into a series a if you could be allowed the best thing

39:33

to do would be carry that at a 10 million value right until the minute you get liquid because then you don't go through the psychological uh roller coaster ride of having to go through these marks because then when these marks come back down jason to your point there'll be there'll be a quarter where we give back that billion dollars of

39:49

that uh maybe you know i mean what what do we all do it's a huge mind [ __ ] let me ask a question about valuation saks when you're doing yours because this came up when i was doing mine and marking my funds if a secondary transaction occurs and somebody buys com or you know slack or whatever it's then when it's a private company at ten dollars a share but the

40:09

last time you purchased it or there was a funding two years ago it was at two dollars a share where do you put the valuation at what the secondary market is trading it at or what you last paid for it or somewhere in between those and who makes that decision sacks what is the best practice on this because secondary market transactions people are

40:26

actually making a transaction right but is that as good as a venture firm you know plopping down and enjoying the board no it's not so first of all you don't want to be making these decisions ad hoc you want to have a policy so we have a written policy and there's a process for amending it if it ever needs to be amended and what our policy does is it just uses the most the most recent

40:47

preferred round to give us the value of the shares and then there can be adjustments based on market conditions like we know that it's usually on the downward right like the company we know has had a huge problem they're not going to fundraise again so there's not going to be a new market anytime soon it's a zombie company perhaps yeah there's gonna be

41:07

some company we can we can mark it down but basically speaking we use preferred financing valuations to set marks only now we do sometimes buy secondary shares and there's a methodology for bringing value on them usually it's basically what we buy them at and um if we somehow otherwise own common we'll use the 409a that's what we do yeah yeah it's i think it's severely

41:29

really clean policy you want to be conservative in these because nothing no you're worse yeah i think you have to be accurate not concerned accurate yeah well i mean you could be yeah i guess the question is like you could see somebody playing some games where you know you buy you know some shares at the you own shares in the company you buy some shares in secondary

41:50

and now you've got two marks right the embedded risk in venture capital has always been the following which is that you have money that goes into the a and there is an incentive today especially because so much money is trying to come in where you want to drive as much growth as possible because then the b is at such a large step up

42:07

that the irrs look amazing and then the c looks greater than the b so then everybody's quote unquote making paper money which allows you to create more incentives to raise more capital the problem with all of that is that if these valuations ever turn out to not be real or there's a valuation reset or there's inflation or the public markets

42:26

don't value growth stocks it takes a long time for it to work its way through the venture ecosystem and all of this liquidity will probably make it even more you know violent when it does happen because it'll eventually will happen we'll go through a re-rating like the year 2000 who knows when it is and what the catalyst is but that's the real uh downside of not

42:47

of all of this is that it'll eventually have a valuation reset that's going to be and to make this super real for people u.s venture capital funds have raised a combined 69.1 billion in 2020 uh edu passed to 2018 um and a couple of these were because of and dressing horowitz doing a pair of mega funds with 4.5 billion in commitments recently and so

43:09

uh it's been just a tremendous amount of funds being made and then to give you an example clubhouse went from 100 million to a billion to 4 billion in under 18 months in valuation led i think each time by andreessen horowitz so what you're saying in an example like this or in your hypothetical example and i'll just make it a real world one if they take those and by the way these are 20

43:30

20 oh one 20 20 sets i don't know what the 2021 stats are so those are old stats there's probably many more i think actually i have the updated stats funds have raised 96 billion uh for 2021 that's the most update in fairness to all of the venture capitalists i think that they're doing exactly what they should be doing and in fairness to all the crossover funds right now is the

43:50

time to be putting maximum money to work as fast as possible not necessarily intelligently not necessarily in a concentrated way but the real game if you want to play it at the institutional level is to just put all the chips on the table and then go back to the store and get some more chips as quickly as possible put them all on the table come back and

44:12

get more so that when it all you know is said and done you have as many dollars working and the worst case is you will return the average return of the market and if that happens to be good you look good if it happens to be crappy you'll be no worse better worse off than anybody else but meanwhile you will have collected enormous fees

44:33

and so that's the point in the cycle we're at and i think that anybody who's doing it makes a ton of sense i think it's it's a really logical thing to be doing the ones that have had big liquidity events are also retiring i mean we're seeing across the board gps of these ultra successful funds that have returned 5x plus taking their ki yeah and they got their

44:50

carried interest and they share their 20 25 share in that and they walk away but if if you look at the value of all global public equities it's about um it's about a hundred trillion dollars and so if you're seeing let's say that we're raising a hundred billion dollars a year of venture capital in these funds and then you're making a two and a half

45:14

x average market return which is not normal right let's assume that's the normal cycle we're in right now um that's 250 billion dollars of liquidity realized in a year out of a hundred trillion dollars of global public equities that's only a quarter of a percent of the disruption of public equities and think about it technology is set up to disrupt all of these old-school

45:37

businesses that are public and mature and scaled and that's what the 100 trillion dollars represents so it's actually you know kind of looking at it statistically it's not that unfounded that we're only seeing a quarter percent market cap disruption of public equities each year because those public companies aren't disrupting each other generally

45:52

maybe to some extent they are they're getting disrupted by new companies that are emerging um new startups and so i don't think that this is like necessarily the you know the peak it may kind of be the beginning of a continuing disruption cycle that we're going to see kind of persist for the next decade or two especially as more of the old school

46:10

industrial businesses which make up a bulk of that market cap start to get disrupted not just by software but also by automation by esg angle investing by um life sciences and all these other kind of technologies that and these interests these market interests that are going to disrupt those old industries i think we could even see an acceleration from here

46:29

so um you know i don't i don't think that this is necessarily peak frenzy bubble low interest rate fueled outcomes i think this may be kind of part of a longer term trend that is statistically probably not that big a deal sacks are you concerned about this peak bubbly market or do you think you know like chamot said push all your chips in and raise as big of fun as you

46:49

can and you know if the game is going to be played at these high stakes you want to be at the table well i i like what freeberg said i think it's a super interesting point that this could just be the beginning look we we live in an age of accelerating technological progress so why wouldn't the returns from that accelerating technological progress also

47:08

be accelerating you know we we had this thesis 20 years ago when the internet first started that you the new economy would replace the old economy it took a few years longer than people thought but we are fully there and the number of new companies being created now is just exploding there a lot of this the this liquidity that's being generated is being now

47:28

pumped into the next set of funds which will go to founders they'll be able to create more companies they'll be able to keep more of those companies um because there'll be less dilution and then a lot of this wealth is trickling a lot of the vc money is trickling down into the competition for salaries so anybody really anywhere in the world who

47:46

can learn how to uh write code can now you know make a six figure plus salary because of remote work so all the salaries all over the world are equilibrating so i mean this is an incredible pathway to prosperity for i mean certainly the united states but really the whole world for humanity for humanity it's really positive assuming it keeps going

48:07

assuming it's not just totally liquidity driven and you know i don't know exactly you know how all those macro forces will play out but um but i mean this seems very positive overall the other the other thing it'll lead to just quickly is a change in who has political power because you know ultimately you know money is the mother's milk of politics

48:27

and and the people who are making all these returns will eventually fund politicians and uh and you know yeah well yeah i'm one of them yeah but look i think there's two kinds of like i'd say prototypes politi uh politically speaking for people in the technology world you've kind of got the the sort of standard woke progressives who are funding a lot of this crazy

48:51

stuff like the incarceration cities whatever we talked about that before but i also think there's another prototype that's less loud and they feel that they're they kind of keep their views more to themselves which is i call them liberalitarians who are sort of liberal on social values but libertarian on economic policy they don't like

49:09

government regulations certainly if they're in the crypto world they don't like government regulations they can see how they create you know friction to progress and they believe in markets and um and they i think they're going to want to fund politicians who support that those types of things so you know i could be very positive uh politically in that respect what's

49:29

interesting i just want to build on what you built on what friedberg said which is i think the best point you made was look on a global basis of the opportunity for an individual somebody who is you know graduating high school college they're 18 19 20 years old because of remote work anybody can work from anywhere technology companies have

49:46

unlimited resources and they need an un a never-ending supply of developers or even a sales person a marketer you know back office etc and they can work from anywhere on the globe and make a six-figure salary you know whatever 50 60 70 80k for one of these entry-level jobs in sales and all the information on how to get those jobs is available for free from

50:09

startups that have put open courseware online or very free courses yet we're looking at this massive technological change and the new york times's position is that technology is destroying humanity and polarization of wealth is destroying humanity what we're actually uncovering here is all of this money being invested in these companies

50:26

is giving an opportunity for people around the world to get high paying jobs totally and actually can i can i can i mention a really interesting item in that was just in politico today which is about um al sharpton was lobbying in congress against changing the carried interest treatment so remember you know all of us in vc make our compensation in the form of uh

50:50

carried interest explain what it is well it's basically you know if a fund is in profits that you know the vc will get the vcs firm will get say 25 of the upside after they pay back all their lps that's called the carried interest because of the way that these partnerships are set up that is treated as a capital gains as opposed to ordinary income assuming it meets the

51:13

holding periods of the underlying assets so there's a big debate about whether you know vcs and private equity people should be paying ordinary income or long-term cap gains on those returns al sharpton was lobbying against changing it because in this political politico article he was saying that it would impede the efforts of black entrepreneurs to

51:33

build lasting wealth if you jacked up the tax rates because there's a lot of fund managers and you know who who are black who are making a lot of money now and they don't want to be subject to this change in treatment so that was super interesting you know this tech boom is not it's not exclusive i mean the the tech industry gets this rap as if it's this

51:55

highly exclusionary place it's not i mean three of the people on this pod right now are immigrants so you know the wealth that's been created is not going to traditional centers traditional it's not going to the errors of you know northeastern you know families or something who've been sending their kids to harvard and princeton for generations it's going to

52:16

entirely new people who haven't had this kind of wealth before anyway that's interesting another positive externality of this wealth all these massive gains that uh folks who have invested in venture capital have gotten has caused one really interesting positive change so amherst which is a really exclusive liberal arts college in the uh northeast made so much money their

52:41

endowment is so flush with cash they basically eliminated legacy admittances which means if your parents got in you were 70 percent likely to get into amherst an equivalent kid whose parents didn't go to amherst had a less than six percent admit rate right so a huge disparity basically said if you're a legacy kid that exists you know we all

53:04

know this it exists at harvard it gets it at all these ivy league schools but amherst is now so has made so much money through vc investments as an example they're like we've canceled admittances so there's there are there are some really positive things that are happening with all this money that's being made al sharpton's rationale aside

53:22

um anyone's going to get wealthier if they're paying less taxes so i think you know you're broadly yeah you're going to see a bit of a focus on that point obviously which is why freeburg california was massively in the bonus in terms of budget surplus and cash because of this issue and they were spending money like trunk and sellers yeah i mean i i just think

53:42

you're going to hear a lot of positioning for you know the case and by the way i think that you know building individual wealth creates this is obviously a philosophical point but you know it creates a greater path to prosperity for more people uh through the spending that they'll underdo in growing the economy than you know than not so i i don't know i

54:04

mean i feel like the al sharpton point is a good one to kind of make but it's it's a broader one than that well i think so to in my view the broader point about the sharpton thing is that it shows that we talk about this group of rich people the the wealthy the millionaires and billionaires as if it's a static class of people at least this is the progressive attack it's not i

54:21

mean what sharpton points to is that this group is constantly changing there's new people getting rich so when we talk about the rich if it's new people getting rich what we're really talking about is success and if you really want to ban people getting rich i mean you're talking about banning success our country can't be successful that way we're not going to

54:39

be able to outcompete china if we're preventing success and by the way we can't fund all these progressive uh programs if we are you know hamstringing success so um you know i think this what we've created here with this highly entrepreneurial free enterprise system that's funded by venture capital this is the golden goose of the american economy

54:59

and the most important thing is that we don't break it saks it might just be we may have underestimated its power is what we're sort of realizing collectively here today is that we've always thought that this thing is hitting all-time highs this might be the beginning right like it feels like this is getting bigger and you know and going at a velocity that is

55:18

different than even when we came into the industry if you know the amount of exits the amount the scale of these companies the coin bases the robin hoods the ubers the slacks i mean these are giant companies making huge international impacts i think it's either that or this whole thing is a liquidity driven bubble so it's one of the two

55:35

it's it's both it's both well i also think the the sharpton thing is a very interesting point that we can go back to maybe episode 25 or 20 when we started this podcast which was trump got massive support from the black and hispanic community because of this entrepreneurial freedom uh upward mobility pitch the republicans were making that's the perfect pitch for

55:57

the republicans not this divisive divisive you know shut the border down but more hey we want everybody to support it and i thought how crazy is this michael che did you want to just edit on this and i'll give it to you michael che was on the breakfast club when our friend was hosting snl and he said i don't know i think white people

56:16

just don't like their billionaires for some reason uh it's weird because we love our billionaires if oprah or tyler perry was coming we'd be excited about it and i met michael che there and michael j was really excited he's a fan of elon's and like it was a really great conversation they have so true it's so true like why are we hating people who are changing the world and helping

56:37

right because it's not we it's it's frankly it's white woke progressives they're crazy they're the crazy bonkers we have to get purple i think conservatives and what you call woke progressives um are the same i don't think it's about a political affinity i think it's about people feeling like they don't have the opportunity that others clearly were

56:57

able to realize and it is amplified and magnified by a social media that that basically shines a light on the success that people have had in a way that we've never had in history before and it creates a great deal of feeling like i'm missing out and i'm being left out and that's what's driving a lot of the discontent on both the left and 100

57:18

it's not it's not a political point of view i think it's a social point of view and the great progress we've had and the great success we've had as a society over the past couple of decades is now being realized through this media in a way that's kind of driving emotional conditions for people that haven't had the same level of success maybe if they

57:33

stop tweeting and complaining and just learn some skills like uh if you're still complaining on twitter as the only colored person on this pod what i'll tell you is i i it's very rare that i meet a colored person that hates a successful other colored person just doesn't exist guys tell us more it's just one of these things where you know we were we are all grinding we all

57:54

know how hard it is to be on the outside looking in if any one of us makes it there's a lot of support i mean we see that yeah that's just what that's just i'll just tell you that's what i felt like south african jews don't feel that way no i mean we see that in the incoming emails and tweets to you chamos you you are inspiring people in india pakistan

58:13

sri lanka we see it constantly they come up to you at events and they're like hey if chamath can figure this out i can do i'm about to do this thing in africa and i'm going there in december i can't wait and you know we're thinking of just doing a couple of like lectures and talks and stuff do it lectures and talks and these this these places are going to get rammed with

58:31

people and it's like it's beautiful to see like yeah i just think that minorities like don't hate on other people that are successful it's just not you're going to africa in december yeah why don't we do all in africa what are we doing like where are you going i got some stuff i'm getting email constantly by people who are starting startups in africa i

58:50

want to go i've never been i really want to go you can come with me in early december if you want i'm in i'm a hundred percent i haven't got anything to do here's the thing that i wanted to talk about before what is crazy and this is jason to build on your trump comment we may be facing a situation i'd love to get your guys's reaction where donald

59:05

trump in his first two years of his presidency may actually have gotten more done than biden will get done in his first two years and i just want your guys's reaction and thoughts on uh how that possibly could be because we have a democratic president we have a democratic congress and we may not get anything done i i can speak to that here's your okay

59:29

sex with the wind up i i can't believe that the way the progressives have done this reconciliation bill it's been crazy okay look from the beginning they've been saying abide in the administration the democrats have been saying we want to do the biggest package of tax suspense it's a great society okay but here here's the thing if you want to do lbj type things you

59:49

got to have lbj type majorities they've got a 50-50 senate and a three-seat margin in the house lbj when he passed the great society he had like 69 senators he had a filibuster super majority filibuster proof super majority in the senate he had something like 150 more seat margin in the house that is the kind of margins you need to

1:00:08

pass great cellulite programs so instead of having i'd say ambitions that were reasonable the administration coxes with the progressives they come together with this for over four and a half billion of spending three and a half in the social welfare 1.2 trillion of infrastructure and they wanted even more okay and then they've been trying to jam this thing

1:00:27

and they never went to the center of the party to cinema to mansion and said hey what are you guys willing to do and so somehow i think they thought they could just jam this thing through over the objections of these votes that they absolutely need and i think there's really this mentality on the part of the progressive left that i think they're so

1:00:44

used to jamming people with speech codes and cancellation and censorship and covet mandates that are not passed by legislatures but have been imposed by edict i think they're just used to jamming people and they think they're going to shame people on twitter like these senators like manchin like cinema into voting their way guess what it

1:01:02

doesn't work that way twitter is not the real world eric adams showed that in new york you won that election exactly dave chappelle is dave chappelle has a 95 approval rating okay the critics hate him the whole progressives hate him guess what you know how many people were actually at that dave chappelle protest like three dozen okay the progressives don't have the votes

1:01:22

what they should have done and by the way their their conduct through the whole thing has been insane aoc has basically been saying if you don't give us everything we want we're not voting for your one another these guys have like ace jack off and they're sh they're putting a shot their head saying hey unless you give us three and a half billion we're not gonna vote

1:01:38

for one billion really you're gonna do that how does that make sense we know call their bluff we know progressives will vote for every penny they can what the what biden should have done if we had a more hands-on president who actually wants to get things done he and he knows this from his time in the senate he should have gone to those

1:01:53

swing senators as a group and said hey what can we get done here not to aoc and pelosi they can't deliver the promise of biden i'll say you know as somebody who voted for biden i'm a little disappointed was he was supposed to be moderate and he was supposed to bring people to the center and it doesn't feel like he's actually to your

1:02:10

point job you asked us what we think i have i'm not regretting because i trump had to go it was too much chaos there was just too much risk having him in there so i am glad i voted for biden but i am unhappy that he cannot build consensus down the middle and get the far left to just you know pump the brakes i i understand they have passion for certain projects

1:02:31

but just get something done moderately and in a phased approach why does this have to be so huge and confusing do you know what taxes are things three times saks is exposing what we may not know which is that progressives are very loud but they may not actually represent a plurality of people so for example in the netflix protest i saw a video and there was

1:02:54

about two dozen people you know and one person actually had tweeted hey i never even showed up to the office yet but i've been showing up to walk out of the office but then what happened was there were some other people that showed up and in the middle of the protest they had a sign that said you know jokes are funny i like jokes and then everybody started

1:03:13

chanting that then a black woman got up and she started to say black lives matter and then everybody got confused and started to chant black lives matter and then they were all looking around each other trying to find direction in this protest and it became somewhat directionless and i think this is what you know we're we're now realizing is

1:03:31

that you know remember what like as managers and corporations we've all heard this term the squeaky wheel gets the grease but it may actually be the case that the squeaky wheel shouldn't get the grease because it's a head fake and we're to get lost in misdirection another example of this there's a guy dorian abbott and i wanted to talk about this as well

1:03:50

this is a guy who's an acclaimed climate professor okay let me just give you the whole story i'm just going to read to you because i think it's interesting the first couple paragraphs of the story from the new york times mit invites geophysicist dorian abbott to give a prestigious public lecture this autumn he seemed a natural choice he's a scientific star who studies climate

1:04:10

change and whether planets in distant solar systems might harbor atmospheres conducive to life then a swell of angry resistance arose some faculty members and grad students argue with that dr abbott who's a prophet university of chicago had created harm by speaking out against aspects of affirmative action and diversity because in videos and opinion pieces he

1:04:30

wants people and members of groups rather than as individuals he basically favors a diverse pool of applicants selected on merit so but he said his planned lecture at mit was about climate science and to help people understand climate change and would make no mention of his views on affirmative action but his opponents uh argued that he was infuriating

1:04:54

inappropriate and oppressive and so they canceled the lecture now here's the question i have here that's another example of all of this stuff are we better off with let's just say there's a hundred grad students a hundred brilliant minds at mit being pushed to think even more specifically about climate change by an expert who can do that or are we better off finding some more

1:05:22

middle-of-the-road person who maybe not be as intellectually ambitious around climate change but has a whole bunch of other views not related to climate change that are more palatable and what does that do for all of us including probably all these people who probably want a solution to climate change but who have now held back the ability to teach these

1:05:41

kids what do we do what do we think about that kind of stuff and this is where again the squeaky wheel in this case did get the grease but are we actually better off in this example friedenberg diversity of thought drives successful outcomes all right thanks for coming in for the all-in podcast we're telling you [ __ ] you already know i mean like what are we

1:06:08

talking about for yourself people listen to a bunch of opinions and if somebody says something you don't like or challenges you know that's an opportunity for you to learn or grow or for you to make a blog post or do your own stand-up special or give your own talk that challenges their debate like we do here every week right but the same thing happened with that what's

1:06:27

that ultra conservative young guy sax who went to berkeley a few years ago and they blocked him from joining the campus no no the um greek name greek name indianapolis milo yiannopoulos he's the right-wing guy the gay provider here we're talking about an expert in climate change giving a lecture about climate change to grad students who who could then go

1:06:48

and solve climate change for the call of the world i mean this is mit and you you chicago which are probably two of the smartest institutions of people in the world right he's not saying anything politically offensive it's just that his unrelated views uh they view they think are anathema and therefore they're gonna protest and

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block him and of course you know they always use the language of safetyism which is oh well if you allow this person on campus it threatens my safety really this person's a physical threat to you no he threatens my self-conception really he said something that you know he's going to talk about something that defends you know it's just that uh you know he said things

1:07:23

that that that threatened my view of the world so my safety is jeopardized i mean this is this is literally the language that's being used now um i mean friedrich's reaction to it is yeah this is so obvious that we don't even need to discuss it but it's not so obvious that it's not taking place it's happening it's happening it's happening you know what i find the most

1:07:42

disappointing about the whole netflix situation is i thought dave chappelle you know even though maybe the special wasn't as funny as other ones i thought it it made you think in such a just incredible way and i always actually read that i looked up the transcript and i read the transcript so i could think more about it and try to form an opinion

1:07:59

about this turf issue and trans people and you know people punching up punching down and comedy it made me think and then the entire discussion about this is just people walking out and no discussion about what he actually said and that to me is just a little bit of a tell like if you are so upset about what he said well where is the transcript of what he said

1:08:21

break it down sentence by sentence and tell us exactly what he got wrong and why so that we can continue the discussion the netflix walkout and how this thing has unfolded the reason it's so unproductive is because they're not moving the discussion forward they're not actually listening to what chappelle said and spoiler alert if you haven't

1:08:39

seen it yet i'm going to talk a little bit about the what was in it he talked about his friendship with a trans person who was a comedian and how he and she had these incredible discussions and learned a lot from each other and how she was dragged on twitter and a lot of tragic outcomes and i'll leave it at that but there's no

1:08:57

discussion about his relationship with that woman who had a tragic fate and the substance of what he said did you notice that chamoth that there's no discussion about the actual words and points that dave chappelle made that shows you that this is a disingenuous or a broken discussion yeah i just i just think that um the problems that we have as a society are

1:09:18

really big freeberg talked about it we have inequality problems we have climate change problems you know we have problems of sort of like systemic health issues these are all fixable and i think that this other stuff is getting in the way of people getting organized to solve those issues 100 and i think that that frustrates me i would have really i'm not sure i agree with this

1:09:42

guy's views on affirmative action let me just be clear i'm kind of i think on the margins affirmative actions actually it levels the playing field and so i support it um but i also start with the fact that if this guy is a brilliant geophysicist and he's already proven that i would want my kids to be taught climate science from him sure i don't i

1:10:03

don't think he's out there to try to like peddle his affirmative action views you know to a bunch of other physicists i don't think that's what he's doing no that's not what he's celebrating not his life's work and so i don't care i would want all of those really brilliant kids at mit to have to be one step closer to proposing a solution to climate

1:10:23

change i think that's a pervasive global issue and i mean we don't have the ability to prioritize these things and and that's what's just so sad we're not gonna have an honest conversation about climate change because we can't have that expert give us talk and i don't think we're to jason's point i don't think we're having an honest conversation about the

1:10:42

chappelle special i don't think any of us believe that chappelle hates lgbtq people or i don't think anyone in the audience thinks that and i think you have to deliberately misinterpret what chappelle is thinking and or saying in order to believe that his message is hate i don't think it is now what i think the chappelle special represents a threat to is perhaps this idea of

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intersectionality that all of these oppressed groups have to be on the same team what he seems to be saying is there's a group of what he's kind of making fun of is that there's this group of sort of pampered rich white uh lgbtq people who have made enormous progress i mean doesn't he say at one point in the special that you know i wish i wish my community

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you know black people could have made as much progress in 40 years in terms of acceptance as this group has and yet this group now wants us to immediately adopt all of their language and sensibilities and and punches down talks down to us if we don't i mean that's kind of the point he's making is he's kind of revealing a little bit of a rift

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between these between these two groups that are supposed to by the way if you saw the if you saw the clip of the protest that rift was actually in display because everybody got confused about what they were supposed to support because you had one set of chants and then you had jokes or funny chants and then you had blm chants from completely different cohorts

1:12:05

of people and it just became a chaos well i mean everybody's opinion must be put through the lens of how many oppressed groups they're from you know obesity i'm black i'm gay i'm trans i'm short whatever i mean like how do we have how do you even navigate a discussion intelligently if i have to say okay you're sri lankan but you're rich chamath and friedberg's got

1:12:27

asperger's but he's really smart on my side what do we mean he's like just make your point and let's have a honest discussion about it and why are we so upset about this special when in china you know we've got a million people uh uyghurs being sterilized and tortured and then i don't know if you saw this week xi jinping is saying like he wants

1:12:45

to get rid of the [ __ ] people a [ __ ] man in is the term he's using in china right they literally thought they were media rules against effeminate men yeah i mean why are we not protesting that well we saw this in the middle east as well the real threat to lgbtq people is or these authoritarian governments that really want to oppress you know they want them

1:13:07

people and murder gay people yeah i mean chappelle is not the the threat i i think i think chappelle had to be silenced because what he's saying is actually very heretical to the work progressive left which is that not all of these groups on the same page and they again they believe in this idea of intersectionality that all of these

1:13:27

groups have to basically be on the same page and actually the more oppressed groups that you're part of the more elevated you are and so this idea that there could be a schism actually is something they want to silence yeah i mean chappelle's quote i don't disagree with the trans movement i just agree with the way they're going about it was his kind of point and he said i mean

1:13:48

again let me speak on as a as a as a colored person who grew up in a minority family you know i would love to tell you that my parents were super super open-minded but that would be a lie um and you know i love them to death and i think they tried their best but you know they came with a ton of [ __ ] baggage and a ton of stereotypes and you know i

1:14:07

don't think that my parents would have been the most supportive of other minorities whether it's color or sexual orientation ever and it was a it was a lot of like very complicated conversations to explain to them how to see the world differently and you know that's what happened when you pluck them out of a third world country and drop them into

1:14:25

canada and you know i think that my parents came far a very long way i remember you know when when i first started you know dating my ex-wife it's like it was a very complicated thing for them to see me dating uh an asian woman very complicated they didn't understand uh and then it was like well do you want me to marry uh or date sri lankan and

1:14:45

they were like yes but as long as she's not muslim and it's like what the hell are you like what are you saying this is and and so i'm just trying to tell you that this idea of intersectionality it does play out in a lot of our lives because we all come from families especially our aging parents oh my god yeah our um my grandparents

1:15:01

there were some my i mean like i love myself i'll be honest with you they're you know they try their best but man the thing that's got me particularly saddened or tilted or just you know um the thing that just sort of hits me is we've made so much progress in so many ways as a society yet we don't celebrate that and we seem incredibly focused on marginal issues to

1:15:24

your point jamal that are not global warming that are not education that are that are not um you know uh international um relations and geo politics you know like there's economic empowerment there's so many things that we could be focused on that would actually make change than arguing about cancer and it would unite kevin hart on the

1:15:47

office but it would unite people that's what i think so that's what i think is such a great opportunity if we all collectively came together and focused on a bigger enemy right climate change climate change i think you'd find people to be much more accepting of each other because we would have a common shared goal and then we would find commonality in achieving it

1:16:06

yeah so j cal bill maher invented a word to describe what you're what you're saying which is progressive phobia which is it's the reluctance to admit any progress because of the fear that if you do admit progress then that means that you don't you will lack a justification for all these you know progressive programs that people want and so they have to make the situations always seem

1:16:26

as dire as possible in order to scare people into a certain agenda um but yeah there's a you know unwillingness to admit how much progress we've made in so many areas the time they tried to cancel me was because i said on twitter isn't it amazing that every single skill you want to learn right now and including the high-paying jobs is now available for

1:16:45

free on mit courseware and anybody can learn the stuff for free and you used to have to pay 50 000 a year and get accepted into these you know ivy league programs but now all that information is free and all we need to do is expose people to it and give them the motivation the time to do and they were like how could you say that you know people are not able to do it and i was

1:17:03

like and then a bunch of people replied who were people of color or people who were poor and said i actually learned to code on the mit website i learned artificial intelligence i learned i got my degree in uh you know social media marketing or whatever at this website udemy that website other treehouse and all these people are saying yeah i

1:17:19

learned all these skills and i went from making working at walmart to making 60k a year 70k a year and then there was this big fight like are you going to cancel me for saying there's more opportunity now than ever i i hold that position there is more opportunity now for you to learn a skill and get a high-paying job than in the history of

1:17:36

humanity the system is more fair now than ever yeah i was going to say argue with that in the in the world of in the world of uh progress there are some amazing innovations every day this week and i put this in the chat and nick you can post the article there was a gentleman in at the nyc ny nyu langone center of medicine who transplanted a pig kidney

1:18:01

into a human and had that human kidney or basically had that pig kidney not get rejected now this was a person that was brain dead and i guess you know the family you know god bless them donated this person's body to science effectively they were kept alive but then they were able to transplant a kidney in and they were able to see the urine production and creatinine

1:18:23

production and all of a sudden now there is a chance that we could actually use pigs genetically engineered pigs as a basis for us to basically get kidneys hearts lungs that is incredible freeberg so so to your point saks that is happening still every day and we don't talk up enough about it because we're up in arms about dave chappelle freiburg tell us you know

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if that in 10 years what that looks like and the impact it has in society if we take that pig transplant and we just 10x it from now put a couple billion dollars behind it what does it look like in a decade well i think there's other techniques that are being developed that you could actually generate actual human organs using um you know basis of induced um

1:19:09

these induced pluripotent stem cells and i regardless of the path i do think like availability of organ transplants um uh it's gonna go up like crazy the big infrastructure and technical challenge we still face is uh we've got to build these these uh gmp facilities uh to make all of these uh cell-based therapies not just kind of organs but

1:19:34

also other cell-based therapies that are becoming kind of the mainstay of the future of medicine personalized medicine for humans and so there's also this kind of tremendous infrastructure opportunity we've talked a lot about we've talked a lot about infrastructure in biomanufacturing broadly and other life sciences opportunities but there's

1:19:53

a tremendous infrastructure opportunity to build out facilities that can produce these you know these these therapies and the therapy can be an organ or a cell-based therapy that can target cancer in your body or or what have you um and so you can kind of think about look we've resolved the science now we've also resolved the engineering the next step is to build it right

1:20:15

and so this is like you know the build decade or the build decades globally for where the intersection of software and biology has enabled these incredible breakthroughs in human health and manufacturing and food and now the infrastructure needs are there i've said this before i do think this is where we are have the biggest gap in terms of infrastructure needs and

1:20:36

the biggest opportunity to kind of fill those needs and if we if i were to kind of be in congress or be president i would say this is the number one priority for an infrastructure bill because once you get this going it's going to change lives and it's going to change the economy so high speed rail costing us 50 billion 100 billion versus

1:20:53

this yeah yeah we could build it down to gms facilities or a bunch of biomanufacturing facilities a lot of stuff that we could build that would um you know pay back within years and have a huge outcome uh private markets maybe we'll meet this demand but i think you gotta you gotta kickstart this stuff uh the economics are gonna be unfeasible for a while

1:21:12

if you wanna get um a car t therapy which is a type of therapy that's person you know personalized car t therapies today your cost is about 450 000 you know a local university here i was speaking with one of their um their lead doctors the other day they've built their own gmp facility at a cost of 50 million dollars and they can now get the therapies down to 40 000

1:21:35

per patient but they can only serve 250 patients a year using that kind of 90 cost reduction so you can kind of see like as you build these systems and this is built locally by a university right it's not built for industrial scale these guys aren't commercial operators of these facilities so if you start to build these facilities from a commercial point of

1:21:54

view and you can bootstrap some of these things in this infrastructure cost um very quickly the cost becomes so low that you see these technologies proliferate and i think we should see that both you know this organ transplant one is a great case study um cell-based therapies biomanufacturing all sorts of uh opportunity you keep saying gmp

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facility sorry good manufacturing yeah it's you know if you're gonna make cells that are gonna go in your body there's incredibly stringent requirements on the safety and the cleanliness and the practices that go on in that facility so these quote-unquote gmp facilities have a very specific criteria of how you how you build and how you operate them they're just highly

1:22:34

they're high quality facilities is what you're saying yeah think about like a clean room to make semiconductors except in this case you're making cells that you're putting in your body so you gotta be really careful um all right everybody it's been 70 minutes 75 minutes 80 minutes uh anybody have any last minute plugs for products that they want to disguise as a

1:22:51

compliment to another bestie i still think we should launch bestie coin the all-in coin and monitize the online podcast we were talking about this at poker live no monetization no no more nfts can we mft ourselves no bestie coin would be incredible i think i want to tell you about this guy lee jackie who's known as the lipstick king in china

1:23:12

um he did a 12-hour live stream on wednesday on taobao 250 million people tuned in he sold 1.7 billion dollars of product so basically the equivalent of the entire adult population in america watched this isn't that incredible that is amazing that is just incredible so that's qvc and as if in two and a half times the people who watch the super bowl it's two

1:23:36

and a half super bowls chiaki the lipstick king the lipstick king guys we haven't had monty on the show in a while let me bring him up oh monty get him to the mic oh monty yeah uh for those of you asking about the all in uh summit we are looking at locations in miami and we will have news shortly if you want to uh sign up for the email when are we doing this thing

1:24:00

uh we're gonna look at march april may but we're gonna do a we're gonna do an la show in january we're gonna do a live all-in podcast at the upfront summit uh mark sisters event in l.a uh but that's like a closed event and then the all in summit you can go sign up for email updates summit dot all in podcast dot co summit dot all in podcast dot co we're not

1:24:24

looking for volunteers we're not looking for event planners we have all the spaces in miami we could possibly know every single person's emails thanks to the fans for giving us every piece of information right now it's just about date states dates we gotta find a two-day date and then whatever place we use like feyena the new world uh the jackie gleason

1:24:42

theater there's so many great facilities there that have reached out to us once we pick the facility we'll know what the facility capacity is some of them can fit 2000 people some can fit 250 when we figure that out then we'll figure out ticketing and and get people there this time next week both friedberg and i may have kids ah that's muscle so

1:25:00

are we are we skipping next week no no i'm actually not giving birth i don't know about you but okay no we gotta get pictures and yeah it's gonna be incredible well congratulations guys and if this africa trip is coming i guess this african trip is happening i can't wait do you what countries are you thinking of tagging along of course

1:25:21

listen this is about my life i have my own what's the point of having my own schedule i get a couple of friends who are traveling the world doing interesting [ __ ] i'm i'm the ultimate wingman your motto is private jet will travel i'm a wingman a professional wingman as a service kenya nigeria ghana and there may be a couple of other places wingman has a service that's if

1:25:40

you need to somebody fun with you for a couple of you know touchdowns takeoffs wingman has a service he's leaving with something i'll bring sunny as my body double you go to the actual events i can't wait actually i'm super excited i would that's going to be fun yeah ah man get your passport let's get the cut deck of cards oh actually you know that would be

1:26:12

great you can we can do a couple fireside chats big fireside chats with 100 we'll take it on the road yeah for sure all right everybody bye boys i love you uh good luck bro good luck to allison and for the queen of quinoa rain man david sacks ride to the fans and they've just gone crazy [Music] we [Music] we need to get [Music]