all right everybody welcome back to the Allin podcast the number one podcast in the world episode 173 it's objectively freedberg the number one podcast I checked I looked online and uh things are cooking over here uh so much so that you may have heard we hired a new CEO welcome to the team our new fifth bestie John H yeah go clap everybody let's get in there with our golf clop
yes all right John welcome to the program your first day was April 1st it wasn't a joke literally was your first day how has week one as CEO for all in bin it has been wonderful super Dynamic really happy to be a part of the team all right there you have it sax you were a huge driver of this you spent so much time interviewing everybody going
through the resumés checking the references you know and you you really spearheaded this oh wait you did nothing I forgot it's it's spelled j o n John wait who is this s is John who is this okay you guys haven't metnet nice to meet you likewise let your winners [Music] ride David and in said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy [Music]
with so John worked at the Russian Embassy this is just a coincidence couple Russian references but he worked as an intern uh for Putin somehow he wound up getting the Dig uh freeberg you actually led the the the incredible search here and we had hundreds of people apply why do you think um we wound up with Mr hell here yeah we had a lot of folks and we met
with a lot of folks but John really stood out with I think his experience and his thoughtfulness about what we can do so so much of our work off the show obviously has gone into putting on the all-in summit and we want to do more Live Events and John has a very strong background in building incredible live experiences and events which we think is
going to be a really important extension I think we've we realized over the last two Summits how much Community matters for Allin and how much getting people together matters and how much the live content mattered and so we want to do more of that and hopefully John can take us to the promised land Fant John thanks for thanks for saying yes it's awesome
to have you yeah all right and uh as John's first first Duty he is going to next week announce the details of the Allin Summit 2024 our third edition chairman dictator trth ptia you've been running all in with an iron fist in the group chat your thoughts on John and working with him and why we selected him the Iron Fist please go I think that
there's a really important Trend that we have stumbled into which is that content creators are the modern form of demand generation for whatever else it is that you're going to consume and I think it replaces advertising and I think it displaces traditional content and so I was really interested in finding somebody that understood how to connect those thoughts and all of the
different ways in which we can explore what our brand is capable of and I thought he was the best example of having done one thing extremely well at scale and curious enough to figure out the other parts so you know I'm really excited to work with John yeah and I'll just add to that you know I've been doing events my whole life and when I saw John's actual event history in the
events you've thrown John really spectacular in the detail and I think you're going to the same way freeberg leveled up year two of the conference I'm I'm really excited to see how you put your stamp on it and level up year three couple of housekeeping things here uh you know we are by the way sorry can I say one thing what you said there is
so much room to build real communities and I think people are just so tired and bored with everything online so I think offline experiences will be a huge value ad in people's lives yeah there's definitely a bridge from online to offline and the the Allin meetups that Ray's been hosting the best example example the best example of at scale of online to offline are dating
apps and all I can see is that's a pretty dissatisfying experience for a lot of people and so outside of dating apps there aren't many really great examples where like-minded people can hang out and have fun and you know talk learn party it's really interesting you bring this up I just finished John um hates new book uh the anxious generation I
don't know if you've listened to it but there's a pair of books out right now bad therapy and uh this one about kids and the premise of this book shth is screen time as you referred to you know people being online not only is it bad for kids and adults it's also blocking to your point real world connection and so we all want a little more real world connection and
so John welcome to the team additionally I'll just uh two more housekeeping items here and then we'll get to the show we're going to have a 1 million subscriber party if you want to be part of that 1 million subscriber party you can increase your chances we're not announcing how we're going to give the tickets away but you can
increase your chances by going to YouTube right now pause the show subscribe to the all-in podcast Channel hit the Bell so you get the alert for the best chance at getting one of the golden tickets to the 1 million subscriber party and we are at 486,000 when we add 14,000 more we're going to do a live Q&A with all the besties so get in on that as well John uh any any
parting thoughts here or comments uh which bestie has been the most difficult in to work with in the first month which one has been the most delightful go it's been a pleasure across the board I think you know part of the beauty of the show is that there are so many different personalities and viewpoints and really happy to be part of the team excited for
what we're going to continue building how diplomatic who's been the worst to deal with who's been the terror be honest tell them I'm you know to we'll talk about it in your oneye review all right John great job you likely you who's been the most neurotic likely freeberg who's been the most value ad likely me and who's been the most the most unresponsive I've been the
easiest to deal with the easiest to that's why I get two votes say my proxy yeah exactly I mean it's it's just wild what's going on here it really is Game of Thrones and you have been put in the center of it John congratulations welcome to the Iron Throne watch your back all right dismiss John let us know how we could be helpful
salute to you John much guys we got to get going here we got a big show for you everybody welcome to the show officially David Sachs your Rainman sha chairman dictator sulan of science David freberg I'm the world's greatest moderator Welcome to the program a quick correction up top that many of you in the crypto space let us know about immediately after the episode dropped we
talked about SPF getting 25 years uh and that broke right as we started the show and we discussed that the customers of FTX were going to get made whole there's been a lot of speculation about them being made whole however there was an important note FTX depositors are getting paid back in US Dollars not the crypto that dollar amount we've learned is based on
the price of their tokens at the bankruptcy date the bankruptcy date was November 11th in 2022 super important because the report that started the run on FTX was published in November 2nd there's a couple of days in between those two dates and a bunch of crypto plummeted salana dropped uh 50% between November 5th and November 11th
that's just one example but since then salana has been up 11x and bitcoin's up 4X ethereum doubled so if you one of these depositors you miss that runup and so FDX customers were rightfully Furious I'll pause there before I get into more details any any thoughts on this sex yeah I mean just to hit the nail on the head here if you had left your salana at
FTX you're going to get $16 per token back and that apparently was the price at the time that they went under so according to the the judicial proced seedings you've been quote unquote made whole but the truth is that Salo at this moment is trading at $188 so you have not been made whole and this is why the crypto Community is furious and so that
that basically is the correction now I thought it was interesting that the judge played into this notion and we talked about that quote from the judge last week where he said that if you go to Vegas abcon with your customers money gamble it and then pay them off with the winnings then you still committed a crime he seemed to be conceding this idea that the investors or or the
depositors at FTX have been made whole clearly they have not been but his quote kind of Lent Credence to that and the reason the judge was talking about it is because SP spf's lawyers were clearly making this argument that his sentence should be commuted or reduced because the depositors had been made whole and I think what you saw in the media coverage
is that the reporters were buying into this idea of depositors being whole I mean you guys got this from somewhere right I mean this is what the media coverage so the media the media was doing what it's been doing throughout the FTX case which is carrying water for S SPF and I believe that this narrative that they're trying to concoct which we
now know is completely false is designed to serve a purpose and I think that purpose is to get SP SPF either pardoned or have his sentence commuted because Mr bankman and Miss freed are huge Democrat atic party bundlers and I think the goal here is to create the idea in the Public's mind that people weren't really hurt by this this was just sort of
youthful indiscretion or hij Jinks and you know was a bunch of H Jinks right Shenanigans but Shenanigans were no one was really hurt and if they can create that impression in the Public's mind they can now set up getting one of their Democratic party connections to help push for a commutation of the sence I think there's a narrative going on I think there's an agenda behind the
narrative and it's what I'm saying here yeah this pardon power is really powerful choth any any thoughts here on the bankruptcy judge making that call to sell the chairs because obviously if crypto had tanked since that time it would look like he saved the money by selling them clearing the positions and giving them cash what what is the right
thing for the bankruptcy judge to do here keep the equities I the tokens or to sell it and freeze it in time it seems like a very different hold on J we got to correct that for just in a certain way so the trustee has been selling the tokens post runup the point is that he's selling tokens at current prices call it 188 and then using that to pay off depositors at $16 so the only
reason the depositors have been quote unquote made whole is because they're getting the benefit of this runup but they're not paying them back at the price of their salana today they're paying them at this price that got fixed at the time of the bankruptcy so the truth is this is why no one's getting made whole yeah this is the you know the
really hard thing to track here because we couldn't find when they were selling it or how much they've been selling this seems to be being done in the shadows or in the background and so if anybody out there as we crowdsource what's going on here wants to keep us up to date let us know but yeah these tokens some number of them got sold at a low price some of
them are getting sold I guess as time goes on shath your just thoughts on how to do this properly what's the proper hygiene here I mean it's we're noty experts that's a great question I don't know the differences between chapter 7 and chapter 11 bankruptcy law but I don't know what was filed here was it chapter 7 or chapter 11 I don't I don't
know but it seems that this was the only thing that they could do which was to liquidate into a common you know unit of measure because at the end of the day their Auditors had to measure in a standard unit and that was probably the US dollar and so then they were trying to work backwards from that shareholder Equity number to get them back to that number
so yeah it was kind of logical that that this is the only thing they could do and I guess they benefited from the fact that there was a runup but it's really unfortunate for folks so I don't know maybe in other countries had this been a differently constituted company organized in a different Place Banky law could have allowed the Liquidator to
actually just distribute the assets on a Prat basis this was a chapter hold I got the update here this is a chapter 11 and in September the judge allowed FTX to start liquidating up to 100 million a week Delaware right this is a chapter 11 Delaware filing yeah chapter 11 in Delaware correct and this could increase to 20000 million a week so it seems like they did they did
start the liquidation later so they might have caught some of the runup so if they did catch the run up then you could be doubly upset right no my point my point is in different in different situations one could imagine where the shareholders could have been allowed to vote do you want money or do you want in kind and if in kind maybe you get a Prat
distribution of all the assets which would have included a whole bunch of these coins but then it probably would have included a bunch of other assets not just salana and Bitcoin and eth that ripped so I think the point is that if they had distributed kind meaning tokens that people would have seen oh wait I only got back on10th the number of tokens
that I put in that's the point right yeah you put in a 100 salana tokens you only get back call it roughly 10 because the the price of those tokens was fixed at 16 and they can now sell at somewhere between 100 and 200 they're able to quote make you whole at the $16 price but that's not being made whole what are they doing with the extra money sacks
because are they using that to make other people in this whole Trader hole as well so maybe they're thinking holistically they're taking the profits of those Salon holders let's say or Bitcoin holders wi Forex and is that going to trickle down to the equity holders who knows freeberg you have thoughts here yeah I think the plan is that that excess Capital beyond what is
quote owed to the account holders goes to the equity holders because it's considered excess of the liabilities therefore it goes to the shareholders I I'll also say in a traditional like brokerage you create an account and when you set up an account your account has a currency denomination it's a dollar based account or a Euro based account and then you your account holds a bunch
of assets and so at any given time the value of your account is represented to you in that local currency the challenge with crypto exchanges is that there's often this representation of a wallet which is meant to hold assets that don't necessarily have the intention of being translated into a locally denominated currency and so I think that's what
makes this system different in the case of a US exchange bankruptcy and this happens in commodity trading accounts or commodity exchanges often there's a freezing of the assets and then a liquidation of the assets where the freezing of the assets sets the the price or the value at the moment of what you're supposed to hold in that account
in your currency of your account right and so the the bankruptcy judge and the trustee are treating this like a liquidation process using a local currency that was set at the time whereas many folks don't consider that the intention of the account that the account was meant to hold assets that it's really a portfolio of assets that shouldn't be liquidated to try and
generate local currency because that's kind of the whole point of many of these crypto currencies themselves it was a custodial account basically right a custodial account of assets versus a trading account of which is meant to ultimately be converted back into a local currency which is typical and I think that's what makes this such a challenging
process yeah just liquidate everything pool of money arrives distribute the money but the way bankruptcy works is that there's a pecking order that essentially you you have all the assets of the company the job of the trustee is to liquidate them they have a fiduciary duty to get the highest price they can for those assets we have no reason to
believe that they haven't they seem to have waited a decent enough amount of time to get to benefit from this crypto recovery and then what happens is again there's like a pecking order for the distribution of the proceeds and you're going to have debt holders they're going to be senior to the equity holders the depositors are going to be high up there
as well government agencies that are owed fines are going to be high up there there's going to be a very specific pecking order in which the equity holders are last you want to go into conspiracy corner and put our chin foil hats on you mentioned the IRS the cftc right these government agencies are owned like over $20 billion if all this crypto profits at they're higher in the
stack they would be going directly to the government and the government is handing the process here so it doesn't look right but I don't I don't think I don't think it's that's driving it I think that I think bankruptcy rules are very specific and they're completely designed around again assessing what the value of each claimant is at the time of bankruptcy
and then creating a pecking order for distribution so I I don't think there's any Foul Play here I think that this is just the way that the cookie crumbles but I think that it's simply wrong or misleading to say that the depositors were made whole and I think the reason we thought that is because of these statements that were promulgated through
the media including the judge to give people that impression and I think it really just underscores that the media always has an agenda and you got to be so careful about em bibing their narratives because without knowing exactly what their agenda is you can invive their bias yeah my understanding of bankruptcy is like they they they can
get a little bit creative and the bankruptcy judges can be a little creative and trying to holistically think about what's the best thing for the business and all the stakeholder shareholders but anyway we'll keep monitoring it and like um we've said before anytime we make a mistake we're going to talk about it right up front anytime there's an Omission or breaking
news happens we're going to fill you in and uh that leads us to our second topic some more news broke about truth social we had a nice spicy discussion about it last week since that time shares of tmtg or dollar sign djt have dropped 30% and uh the numbers for their revenue also confirmed and came out it's pretty ugly 4 million in Revenue 58 million in
losses floats only 30 million shares but there are some follow-up stories here we'll get into Trump is suing the two co-founders to reduce their combined 8.6 state to Z his argument as co-founders set the company up improperly and mishandled the launch of Tru social so they should forfeit their stock these are both co-founders previously on The
Apprentice Trump owns 60% and he stands for reing ear out of 36 million additional shares in the coming week uh worth almost two billion so huge windfall for president Trump coming in addition to that SS you're going to love this Russia Russia Russia the guardian is reporting tmtg raised $8 million in emergency funding that might have possibly come from a Russian linked
entity the spa uh while it was on hold was running out of cash Russia link en uh you read this all about this in the guardian they tried to raise some money they wound up raising 8 million across two convertable notes from a bank called paxum located in the Caribbean owned by a Russian who is reportedly the nephew of Alexander schroff who used to work in
Putin's executive office until 2017 is this a joke no I I I I mean I I wish it was a joke because I know I'm going to get barbecued for like by the by the Trump supporters in the comments but it is crazy that the Russians are what is the Russians name Alexander schof isn't that the name of a vodka it kind of ism I noov shirov maybe shov Trump doesn't
even drink I mean maybe yeah I don't know if Putin drinks or not anyway Trump doesn't drink Putin doesn't drink either oh Trump doesn't drink that's true yeah if the oh really is that true yeah so anyway important caveats to all this stuff uh interesting story though there's no indication that Trump or Trump media had any idea about the nature of these loans Cu uh they were
opaque and uh Trump media says it's propaganda and false narrative your thoughts on the Trump sa sacks and and Russia I know it's your favorite topic well we're it's going to be a really long seven months if we're going to bring up every one of these evidence-free stories of some sort of Russia connection to Trump I mean this article doesn't even make sense like you
said here's the giveaway in the middle of the article they say the guardian does quote there is no indication that Trump or Trump media had any idea about the nature of the loans beyond that they were opaque nor has the company or its Executives been accused of wrongdoing so then what are we talking about here does there some guy with a Russian sounding
last name I mean literally that's the story it doesn't even make sense I don't understand how you can get alone and not know who your counterparty is so this whole thing just seems like it's part of the milu of let's create any connections we can between Trump and Russia and the giveaway on this was actually a New York Times story that just came out in the
past week it was called Russia amps up online campaign against Ukraine before us elections now the interesting thing about this story is that it was reporting allegations by Clint Watts who has apparently been hired by Microsoft to run something called the threat analysis Center and job basically is to find Russian interference in the election now
here's what I found interesting about this is that Clint Watts that that name rang a bell for me and it's because Clint Watts was involved in the Twitter files so back in January of last year Matt taibe broke this story in the Twitter files that Clint Watts was running the Hamilton 68 dashboard he was basically behind that project he's a former FBI
agent what was Hamilton 68 Hamilton 68 claimed that it was tracking 500 Russian accounts on social media who were engaged in manipulation of online discourse well as it turns out Executives inside of Twitter knew who these accounts were and they were just American accounts some Canadian accounts and in the words of Twitter Executives the whole Hamilton 68 dashboard was
that was their word and nevertheless this Hamilton 68 project that Clint Watts ran put out story after Story for years about how the Russians were meddling in American political debates and these stories the Hamilton 68 claims became the basis for thousands literally thousands of mainstream media stories claiming that Russia was interfering in American
politics it all turned out to be a total hoax a total fraud now the amazing thing to me is you would think after an expose like this that it would at least be mentioned in the New York Times that the person they're quoting as saying that the Russians are meddling in our elections has a previous history of setting up Russia hoaxes and they don't
even mention that despite the taiii story moreover it's amazing to me that this Watts guy not only landed on his feet he got a cushy job at Microsoft running their threats analysis Center said could put out more of this threat analysis on how the Russians were meddling I can't imagine a less qualified person to be describing Russia
threats than somebody who was caught red-handed manufacturing bogus threats for years free your so in any event Jason I would just say that you know going back to the S SPF story The takeaway there is be careful what you're em bibing from the mainstream media because there's always an agenda and until this story about Tru social from the guardian has a little bit more
detail to it that makes sense to me I'm just going to put it in the category of more the same yeah and you know that as I've said on this program before Russia's explicit strategies just put their fingerprints on everything and cause chaos like they did with the internet research agency and all the trolling they were doing the last couple of Elections freeberg your thoughts on
this you concerned about the interference in the election I'm not GNA thoughts on this yeah this is this is nothing I feel like I should be thoughtful about okay sounds good all right then wrapping up I had mentioned the last episode about the insider trading charges in the company that was the spa before they purchased truth social and the three two
of the three men have been charged with insider trading just pleaded guilty so Michael and Gerald schatman made 23 million illicit profits trading shares of DW AC before the merger was announced that each plad guilty to one count of Securities fraud face 3 to five years neither was involved with truth this is the spack that came before truth and there it is
folks so there's your update what's the relevance of this to being a top issue on the all-in Pod I just think this is going to be a really long seven I think it's going be a really long seven months for us till the election if we're going to bring up every mainstream media story that seeks to create a connection between this MRE media this is an SEC
filing yeah this one has nothing to do with Russia this is the insider trading one but you just said it has no connection to True social so why we even talking no no it's these are the people who traded the stock before truth social merged with it this is the spack that truth social and they traded when they found out that Trump was going to be the
spec that was merged with so I'm just following closing the loop on that breaking news Google is reportedly considering making an offer to hire acquire HubSpot creating a $34 billion market cap this just came out reported by Reuters who cited Anonymous sources shares up 7% on the news if you don't know HubSpot it's awesome tool we use it uh CRM that blend Marketing sales
customer service all that kind of good stuff and so here's their quarterly Revenue since IPO they've been public for 10 years as you pointed out in the group chat Friedberg and this has been slow and steady Revenue power of SAS I guess and a great product I'm not a shareholder here's the quarterly Revenue growth on a year-over-year
basis stock chart yada yada chath I guess this is something we've been talking about here which is m&a and m&a being pushed into the coal Plunge and being frozen and now we see something like this what what do you take from this if it's in fact a true report I mean I think it's a bit of an odd acquisition and the reason is that it's become pretty clear for all of big
Tech that any acquisition that they do is going to be highly scrutinized and so just from an EV expected value perspective if you're going to try to acquire something and spend the next year beating your head against Regulators why not do it for something that's really valuable and I would not characterize HubSpot as strategically valuable for Google I think it's an
important ecosystem player and it's probably better off as an independent company so if I were Google I'd be trying to buy something much more useful like perplexity or something H freeberg your thoughts on this first of all it's super impressive hubspot's been public they went public at about a billion dollar market cap 10 years ago and today
they're trading at 34 billion so organic develop this business and they provide marketing automation software so basically things like CRM tools email marketing tools so when you use advertising tools and you generate leads those leads come in what do you do with them so let's say you're running a website that sells bicycles people want
information on bicycles what do you do with those people after they get information on your website and how do you track them down and how do you sell them a bicycle if you're a big enterprise software company and you start to get companies reaching out to you through your website how do you then convert them so you use CRM tools customer relationship management tools
Salesforce is a obviously a behemoth in the space but HubSpot has this integrated marketing Automation and CRM platform for taking leads and then converting those leads and selling products to them so the sales team and the marketing team uses HubSpot software to operate and and do their work and do it better when I worked at Google in
2005 the main thing I worked on is how do we do a better job taking our advertisers and giving them more tools that they can then convert the leads that they're getting into customers and so one of the first things I worked on in 2004 and then we closed the deal in 2005 was acquiring urchin which became Google analytics so that companies could better track how folks
were converting on their website after they spend marketing dollars on Google how do you see where those people go on your website and what they're actually doing on the website and ultimately make your website better so you can sell a more product some more software and one of the the things I worked on was CRM so I had this conversation with the
executive team with Larry and Sergey and others at that time and we talked about should we buy a CRM company and we actually had a conversation they did with Mark Ben off at the time and we talked about is there a way to buy Salesforce and Salesforce went public shortly before Google and it was more richly valued than I think the appetite was at the time to make this
leap to buying a CRM company we spent quite a bit of time meeting with and I personally spent time meeting with netsuite which ultimately got rolled in I think it was Larry Ellison was the primary owner of netsuite we looked at a few other CRM companies and this was always meant to be the next solution that you plug into the advertising platform at Google you get all these
leads from advertising and how do you convert those leads and make them customers and many of the other things we looked at were things like checkout software and software that would let you run a website to sell your products to customers on the the website and so on which became Shopify in a way which became Shopify and and we had looked
very deeply at doing this at Google is actually building a product called Google Checkout it wasn't very successful but it was to do exactly this which is to build a basically a Shopify type competitor and so this has always been the natural fit for Google's business Google made a quarter trillion dollars last year in advertising revenue
and then they didn't make much revenue after the advertising generated leads because Google doesn't have a great commer business and they don't have any of these other Enterprise tools so this is a very natural fit into Google's advertising business and taking all of the leads from advertising and better converting them and giving your sales team the tools they need to convert
those leads into customers so it makes great strategic sense it's been a concept that's been around for 20 years at Google certainly they're going to face regulatory scrutiny but it doesn't have the same sort of overlap with the ad Network businesses because they're not very heavily in the ad Network business HubSpot but it's a really good
kind of enterprise software PL plugin some would say Acquisitions are one of three types they are defensive they are offensive or they are about reinforcing the status quo if you had to bucket HubSpot into one of those three things is this an offensive mmaa is it a defensive m&a or is this status quo I think it gives advertisers more tools that can integrate with AdWords
which is how advertisers spend ad dollars is through AdWords platform and so as a result it locks the advertisers onto Google's ad platform keeps them more engage and so I think that the benefit to jamas point is that they're going to both protect ad Revenue at Google by locking in people on the on the CRM side and the marginal impact
they'll get from selling CRM services not that impactful to the business I mean if you could spend let's say with a premium $50 billion on HubSpot or five billion dollar on perplexity today which one would you buy I think you got to buy HubSpot you're protecting to your point you're protecting a quarter trillion dollar ad business HubSpot makes two billion in Revenue so
it's 1% of the size of Google's ad business and it helps you lock in some percentage of that 250 billion so that's an important strategic acquisition I think for Google so you'd rather buy something in marketing automation versus AI I think they should spend the money in AI but I think you have to buy something to it's a good question to further the revenue mode yeah what does
Google accomplish here that they couldn't do with an integration a partnership you mean well I mean they could just build on hubs spots platform just create a connector between Google ads and I think that exists already exactly so what's the point understand I think what freeberg is saying in nicer language is they're going to make it a roach motel lock in
you get in and you can't get out I mean it gives you the full life cycle of the advertiser sack so I mean you understand the funnel right you get the actual profile of the customer yeah the problem with the roach motal m&a strategy is that people sniff that out pretty quickly and then they start to carve out these very discreet parts of the product
that they want you to divest in order to get the whole thing done that's the thing that surprisingly I think The Regulators have gotten smart about and I suspect it's not that The Regulators themselves know these discret ideas but that the answers are fed to them by competitors who want to slow these processes down and make these things convoluted and complicated
oh they snitch they send the snitch in I I think it's very smart for a competitor to actually call a regulator and give them a road map of how to make the deal happen but in a very convoluted complicated way you remember I suspect that's what happened in Microsoft Activision Microsoft brilliantly fought it off right and so they were able to get the whole thing done completely on
their terms but in many other cases you get these discret things where it's like okay invest this sell that keep this and it's like why why are we doing this but I just think the roach motel strategy is harder to get done these days because folks will know how to make it super convoluted I will tell you what what when when a big company like this
makes a big acquisition offer like this as much as I know Google's business I think it's a generalization that can be drawn here it's usually a negative signal about organic growth meaning if I'm a Google shareholder I should look at this and I should say why do you need to make this acquisition why is there an indication in this bid that there is some advertising Revenue
leakage going on and then I should go spend time trying to understand that I think there's a really important question there yeah but this is why I'm asking you like obviously they're not going to do this because things are going perfectly in that space and so if you're losing share you're not going to be losing it to Bing you're losing it to
some form of AI which is why again it's a bit of a heads scratcher spend a lot less money and just buy everything in the space or spend 50 billion and buy everything possible in the space to give you just a little context here this is going to be by far their largest acquisition if it's true if it gets closed this is all speculation right now
looking back Motorola Mobility uh was bought for 12.5 billion there were patents there was the hardware business which they spun out you can go look up the deal details there but there's a long taale of uh companies they've bought Nest Labs Fitbit and YouTube uh 3 billion 2 billion 1. 6 billion if you remember uh they bought a mandiant I've never even heard of the cyber security
company 5.4 billion they bought nest for 3 billion double click 3 billion that was a long time ago so he probably triple that value in today's dollars by the way remember Fitbit Fitbit took uh 18 or 24 months to close took a while yeah deep deeply scrutinized if you think a wearable on your wrist is going to get scrutinized when bought by Google
imagine what happens when a 50 billion dollar marketing automation company gets bought by Google yeah it's really interesting look I I don't think this acquisition makes any sense I'm kind of in Chamas camp this is this would be a very odd acquisition I'm not even sure the story is true there's been no confirmation of an actual bid made this
was basically an anonymous source saying that Google had hired investment bankers to you know maybe kick the tires well typically these Bankers float these trial balloons like this because they want to pump the deal but yeah imagine what the fees would be on $50 billion acquisition sh some other buyers loose yeah when they have these auctions well
look it's going to be very hard for any big tech company to do a $50 billion acquisition of anything just that given that leanon and the FTC are opposed to bigness in and of itself but I think from a strategic point of view I agree this this deal would be odd I don't really see the connection to the Google ads business HubSpot is used by companies to
manage their pipelines it's a competitive Salesforce I see it all the time I see startups using it all the time as the alternative to Salesforce because it's sort of easier to use more user friendly and the main thing it does is you have your pipeline in there you bring in the leads at the top of the funnel and then you work them down to close deals where do those leads come
from sex I understand that they can come from Google AdWords but most of them come from from ads spend that's the connection and it's always been this idea that those two should be integrated okay but but the the point is that if you think about your top of funnel if you're one of the customers of HubSpot using this Google AdWords is just one of
a number of channels that's right so you could be getting your leads through inbound you could be getting your leads through events you could be getting your leads through I mean there's so many different sources so so doesn't it doesn't make sense to me that somehow Google would need to acquire a company to manage not their advertisers but the people their advertisers are
trying to reach as one of a dozen different potential marketing channels it just doesn't really make sense I mean the the Acquisitions where Google's been really successful have been broad horizontal platform plays like Android this is as vertical as it gets this is CRM software this is basically Google getting into a vertical app for sales
and marketing teams yeah I if you think if you think about the business that this is most like it would be G suite and because it's an Enterprise play and that's the most neglected part of Google's business I think you're both a key piece to this I think this is about the data you look at these These are the leads and the great contacts in the
database of the customer which Google doesn't have access to and they can close the loop and they can make targeting of ads and get people deeper and they can fight for a larger percentage so to your points act yes you've got 20 different inbound feeds coming in for leads if Google knows the leads that are already in there they can then retarget them across their entire
ad Network which is the largest in the world that's the value if I know your 10,000 best customers and then I know when they're on Google searching and I know that when they're in a Chrome browser I know when they're on an Android phone if they happen to use that man I can just start getting more of your ad dollars into it that's what's actually happening here it's they don't
want a SAS business they want the data they want to retarget folks and then they want to make close more sales and be more efficient than Tik Tok and Facebook and meta it's about you think they'd be allowed to use their customers data to somehow Target their ad product absolutely 100% if you if I'm opting into it and I say hey you have 10,000
people in your database you want to go find them we have you have 8,000 of them connected that came in through Google search what about the other 12,000 you want to try to find them in the Google ad Network we can put that together for you that's actually if somebody's going to snitch on this deal it's about the data I'll tell you back in just
improving conversion rates drives more ad revenue and the key measurement we had the year after we bought urchin and launched Google analytics was we looked at how much an advertisers spent on Google's AdWords Network before and after they installed Google analytics and that year it was a ton of money at the time we saw an incremental roughly $500 million in Revenue in ad spend with
folks who installed Google analytics from before versus after because they then started to change their websites and tweak their sales flow or their marketing flow on their website to better convert customers so they could spend more on the network because higher conversion rates means you can spend a higher CPM on Advertising so the the
deeper you go from an integration perspective in closing sales the better you actually can get and the more money you can spend on marketing on the front end and so that benefits the growth in the network and to build on your point freeberg this is why Amazon and Uber and instacart have become such mayor major players in advertising they have the data on sales
information and drop off and they sell conversions at the point sacks of the shopping cart about to be clicked on and Amazon's been taking some of that and and instacart been intercepting some of those ads yeah I'll speculate on this for a second I think that if I'm sitting inside of Google I see the capability of our AI tools our generative AI Tools in
being able to improve marketing and sales um processes and I'm saying how do we leverage that well guess what we don't actually have access to our advertisers sales and marketing automation workflow because we don't have a CRM tool so then the natural strategic thing is how do we get a CRM tool okay well we can't buy Salesforce well we could buy HubSpot that makes
sense number two so then we could we could apply our generative AI capabilities to improve conversion efficiency at HubSpot and probably grow Revenue there as well so it could be a fairly quickly creative deal and there's the benefit to the ad Network I think the roach motel idea is probably the best strategy here yeah you're right I just think I would if I were them with
$50 billion there're like 30 billion by the way 35 premium they got to pay 50% more 25% more it's already floated up so you got to imagine it's probably a $40 billion deal yeah okay 40 okay so they saved 10 billion I think the synergies here are negligible if it took Google almost two years to get a an accelerometer on a RIS approv from antitrust this is going to
take three years saxs yeah so why bother so like do something much more disruptive I have an answer to that but I want to hear Sax's first good well I just looked up how many customers HubSpot has HubSpot has 205,000 C customers as of the end of 2023 now you look up Google AdWords it has 1.2 million businesses okay and I'm sure that's not 100% overlapping every one of
them should be using hutspot that's hugely creative I agree yeah I don't think that Google has the leverage to drive all of its adword customers into using a do need all of them if if it gets 5% of them it makes this deal make sense interesting that part is kind of interesting if they can actually drive their ad customers what they did with
with double click double click was actually advertising no but they had other other places that they could take their AdWords advertisers to spend that the double click Network had access to anyway I I hear you yeah and there was another set of advertising AO management tools that double click had that that's an Enterprise software tool that they
were able to sell into their advertisers that they didn't have themselves CH let me ask you a Market's question here if we wind up with a republican conservative GOP presidency and administration for the next four years which seems like a a possibility here strong possibility what does that do for m&a markets do you think they might be opening up here and
the reason Google's even considering this is because they anticipate this deal might fall into a new Administration that is going to fire Lina con possibly probably I actually think that I think the Democrats and the Republicans are really well aligned here they don't like deals and I don't think you're going to see a big sea change they hate big tech
for different reasons but they equally want to them down if you look at the non-big tech m&a deals they're going to get slowed down for different reasons so for example like the big us steel merger with nipon steel that was announced Biden has one set of issues but I suspect you know if Donald Trump were to get elected his issues will be more about further
hollowing out Middle America and so that deal will probably get stopped for different reasons but so I think that they're both actually roughly aligned and not all a lot of this big m&a to happen but for different reasons for different reasons but the outcome is the same so this is why I I would just kind of think like if you're going to do a deal you got to do
something that's like small enough where it'll pass muster you know it to be really valuable and The Regulators will be like ah whatever just let it happen SX what do you think do you think a trump Administration would become more frisky allow more m&a they seem to be actually cozing up to Tech in a major way well I agree with Jamal that there's
a lot of anger on the Republican side towards Big Tech because of censorship and bias and Google is as guilty of that as any of these big tech companies so I don't expect Republican Administration to have Google on its good graces that being said I do think Republicans have a more traditional definition of antitrust than Lena Khan does and I think that a
republican anti-rust enforcer would probably be guided by market share considerations first and for foremost and so in this case since Google does not have a CRM play then based on a traditional definition of antitrust they would be able to make this acquisition whereas I think again Lena Khan is just opposed to bigness and doesn't want big tech companies getting any bigger so
there's no guarantee that Republicans would allow it I would say that if you got the right FDC commissioner or right doj I'd say there's a possibility of it being more likely to go through to remind everybody lenina Khan's interpretation of antitrust is future competition trying to protect future competition the traditional one is consumer based hey are consumers
benefiting or not and so that's actually that's one of the top three guests I want market share is really the traditional test yeah market share and then the impact that has on consumer choice and price yeah can I just go back on to the Synergy point I just want to like yes please I just want to brainstorm about this for a second let's
say you're one of Google's 1.2 million businesses that are using AdWords there's a high chance you're also using Facebook there's a high chance you're also doing other kinds of advertising you might be doing physical world advertising you might be doing events there might be a dozen different channels through which you get leads now all of a sudden Google sends you an
email saying hey we acquired HubSpot you know why don't you click here to use us for CRM is that really going to drive a change in behavior from that small business beyond what they would already do today it doesn't seem that syner just stick to me some percent of them not all maybe 5% again like 5% is 50,000 that's Anem campaign I mean I just don't see the
leverage basically yeah I don't know if I agree but I mean that's why we're here if Google did a deep product integration where the leads that you acquired through Google AdWords magically appeared in HubSpot and that's where you went to go work them then yes maybe maybe there' be Synergy just looking at this on the numbers since we like to do back of the envelope here $250 billion
add Revenue 1.2 million in advertisers it's almost exactly like $2,000 per Advertiser obviously there's some big ones obviously there a long tail man if you can get some number of those to spend 10 20 30% more it could be quite a creative to the bottom line it would pay for the acquisition over a short period of time and we'll see it's interesting
discussion for sure all right if you missed it John Stewart did a segment on AI on The Daily Show he came back he's doing I think Mondays every every week and it went viral and it was about how AI is going to change our jobs faster than any previous labor Revolution so it seems like the public is starting to get an idea uh about AI wiping out large
swats of jobs and it's starting to hit the mainstream CEOs like Brian chesky from Airbnb and Aaron Levy from box I had them on this weekend startups Le in the last year they said they anticipate 30 to 50% productivity gains for a lot of the jobs in their companies developer customer support all that stuff and we covered claer AI customer support agent
doing the job of 700 full-time employees and driving a $40 million increase in profits this year yada yada y we've we've talked about this over and over again but it seems to be tipping over into public Consciousness we chth have talked about whether humans will find more work to do or if this is going to truly displace people I think we all
kind of feel like at least to the best of my memory we all feel like new jobs will be created but it is entering the Public's Consciousness what imp is that going to have if the public starts thinking AI is going to take their job chath I mean I think that social media will make this perception more widespread than it's been at other moments of Revolution and Innovation but
we've gone through this before I'd like to summarize my thoughts in three charts okay and I call this this time it's not different so chart number one for those watching on YouTube is a look at the components of US GDP this is from the Bureau of economic analysis now this goes from 1929 up to 2011 so it doesn't go all the way back
to the 1800s and we're missing the last decade but the point is the following if you can see the chart if you can't see it I'll describe it to you which is that GDP the components of GDP are surprisingly resilient and roughly the same over long stretches of time which is that even though GDP goes up consumer consumption is always around 70% net exports are
a few per plus or minus gross domestic investment is around the 20% level and then government consumption is around the 20% level and that's what adds up to GDP so that's an important thing to note why because in the absence of something very acute like World War II these things don't change over long periods of time okay so if that is true what
happens when you have any kind of a revolution so let's look at the Industrial Revolution right so they shift from farms to factories and what you saw was exactly what people should be worried about with respect to AI which is in specific job classes things just fall to zero so unemployment basically went to zero and the income associated with those jobs also went to
zero so this is what people are worried about but if you remember the last chart the point is somehow we found a way to find growth and this is what's demonstrated on this final chart which is when you look at us productivity and worker compensation this is going from World War II to today you find that every time we find a new way of
innovating compensation tends to track it so if you take these three things together number one which is the components of GDP rarely change number two is that yes there are certain categories of jobs that always get disrupted away but the third is the most important which is that as productivity goes up which is what AI should give us just as we've seen in the past
compensation also goes up which means new job classes will be created so I think the macro picture if you look back hundreds of years is that this is like many other moments in time it feels more personal right now because we're all living it right none few of us lived The Agrarian to Industrial Revolution yeah we missed it and few of us lived the
technological Revolution right we kind of came in at the heels of it but I suspect that this time is not different freeberg your thoughts on this I think you've said something similar on past episodes but it is kind of tipping and into public Consciousness and it's also affecting White Collar jobs this time not just people in fields picking berries and so those people may be a
little more vocal and we've seen massive layoffs in Tech massive layoffs in media and those jobs don't seem to be coming back people seem to be get taking the gains and just having people on the team be 30% more efficient as Brian told me on my other pod so what do you think freeberg is this time different or is it the same so here's this article from June 2 1983 in
the New York Times all about how computers are eliminating jobs in industries that were effectively offline knowledge work Industries at the time creating engineering designs creating architectural drawings I think this article spoke to the fact that these jobs were going to be eliminated and as we all know those jobs actually got
enhanced by computers productivity went up and new sub Industries emerged and in fact the overall Industries actually grew in some cases when we were fearful of them being replaced due to the automation enabled by software so I think that in this particular sense we can talk about the Industrial Revolution enabling through Manufacturing Systems and centralized
production a a replacement of manual labor with machines what we're talking about now is a replacement of knowledge work that has been aided by computers with machines so the machines no longer even need the human but the reality is that these systems are actually going to give humans 10 to 100x leverage so when you think about that one person could
spend three weeks making an architectural drawing today what if that one person could make an architectural drawing every six hours so the question then is do we stop making architectural drawings and we fire a bunch of Architects or does the cost of making an architectural drawing drop by 90% And it enables us to do more detailed higher
resolution architectural drawings across more places more frequently and the industry actually booms and what we've seen historically is that when productivity goes up costs go down the actual volume balloons and the economy grows so it's a it's an example where I think in this particular case we will see these tools creating more leverage for knowledge work instead of just
simply replacing knowledge work and that humans will start to shift to a higher order of work and we'll see the economy grow and productivity go up as a result so so I think that's my kind of key read on on on the story but it's very hard to connect the dots for people without having all of these historical cases and I think one of the ways to
think about doing this usefully is you go back to the software Revolution and all the stuff that we were doing with pencils and papers before computers we actually didn't lose all those jobs the people could Now do 100 times or a thousand or million times as much work and new Industries emerged and productivity went up and the economy grew and so we just have to have
this this realization as this starts to take hold that the industries will change and that the systems will actually provide leverage not replacement yeah it's such a good point and I think how what you teach your kids is like really important at this moment in time like having a job that is replaced by AI where that could be greatly replaced by AI might be a
mistake and if you think about being a conductor freedberg or a maestro a conductor of an orchestra I think that's the job of the future is can you work with these agents forget about co-pilots because that's phase one of all this but agents are phase two where you have an agent who's writing copy who's should the HubSpot example you get before you know a designer who's
in the cloud who's an agent an AI agent making you artwork and then you Stitch all these things together I've been loading chat jpt with my kids constantly asking History questions and whatever questions they want I've been teaching them how to use chat GPT that's great yeah I mean I think it's like a like there's this whole transition of humans
doing manual labor to doing knowledge work where you're using software to create digital output to now having more folks spend more of their time being conceptualists or creators where you can kind of be an architect or a creator of something and the system just generates it you know you you state your intended objective and the system solves for it
yes as opposed to hey I got to go build the Excel spreadsheet and check the formula in every cell and do all the manual what if I just say hey here's what I want the model to do please generate it for me and you get the result it enables you to do a 100 times more work that's why I use the analogy conductor or yeah orchestra leader sax what do you think this is uh you're
you're you're on the populace side you really have your finger on what Americans think and it's a compliment it's a literal compliment but I do think you're I think you've become a PO especially as the longer I've known you we've known each other for over 20 years you've become more populist so what what's the word on the street here amongst you know gen pop
and how do you think they're taking this news when they see somebody like John Stewart they respect when you see somebody like Jonathan John Stewart you know doing this that's like going to hit a large swath of these you know you know Elites that we've talked about before on the show who are losing their jobs or maybe their salaries are getting capped
well first of all Jason to quote Senator Gras from Gladiator I may not be a man of the people but I do try to be a man for the people yes exactly so uh oh my god did you see the AI did you see the AI from some y competitor company where they like made a little video of us and like we're talking about somebody's nuts and then they were like you said oh I'm
going to ask my butler to ask my assistant to ask my house manager to then ask My Chauffeur to pick those up it's like it was a pretty great clip yeah it look funny look to be frank no one cares what John Stewart thinks he's never been less relevant and less funny um this is a story that the media has been hyping up for months now CO's over so they need something else to scare us
with and what they really should be talking is that we've got two Wars that risk spiraling out of control they don't want to go there they don't want to go there or or the national debt exactly right they don't want to go there either because neither of those issues reflect well on the current Administration and power so they're going to scare us with this now
look in the short to medium term AI leads to productivity gains in the long term it may lead to job losses but as you guys pointed out hopefully by then we'll have lots of other jobs created by the productivity boom that we're going to get and this has been the case throughout history with regard to technology improvements and if we don't
have these productivity improvements what's going to drive the growth in GDP what's going to allow us to pay off this enormous national debt that seems to be yep you know so large that we it's unrep we need the productivity gains that AI is going to unlock without them we're definitely toast so look I I don't place a lot of stock in this John Stewart's
story it's just one of many that the media is is creating to try and scare us about AI that's actually a great guest John Stewart would be a great guest along with Lena Khan put those on the list have you seen this um clip where Yan Leon basically says our best llm is 50 times smaller than what a four-year-old has processed since they've been old is awake has been awake
a total of 16,000 hours and you say Okay 16,000 hours multiply this by 3600 seconds per hour and then figure out like what's the um bandwidth of the optical nerve going to the cortex it's about 20 megabytes right you have 1 million nerve fibers per uh per per eye and it's about 10 bytes per second right give or take um so multiply that's 10
the 15 bytes by the time you four 15 times more than whatever llm like the biggest LM in the world have been trained on okay so what that tells you is that in the space of a few months a baby has seen more information than the biggest LMS that we have the point is that and this is one of the foremost experts in Ai and really one of the fathers of modern AI what he's basically
saying is it's still more artificial than intelligent and everybody needs to take a deep breath and understand that there's just going to be a lot more work before you get to this omnipresent agent that just replaces and destroys everything and thinks on its own yeah I'm willing to bet on all of us versus a bunch of four-year-olds and I just want
to say Kumbaya to Davos as well a clip from Davos thanks for letting us use that yeah it's interesting sacks like um the number of jobs that will be replaced or augmented and then the creation of jobs and then you start thinking about well how many jobs exist in the real world I saw weo is doing Uber Eats deliveries and you're just think wow more people are going to be
able to afford ubber which is kind of expensive to to use so consumption is going to go up and then you think about the Optimus and then what's the other robot company that's making a general human robot figure and man those are starting to get really interesting and and I think that's going to be the unlock so maybe you could speak a little
bit to sax what do you think happens when we start getting humanoid robots in the mix and do you have any investments in that space I don't because I don't I don't do that kind of Hardware R&D I mean look I think you're right that AI does lead to robotics because one of the hard things about robotics is just having the the robot not just move but
understand what's happening in the world around it and then make the right decisions about how to react to that and so llms do start creating a path for the robots to be able to make Intelligent Decisions without having to be programmed with a bunch of if statements right and I mean self-driving kind of does this too I mean self-driving is sort of the
early it's kind of like the early prototype for these kinds of robots and that that's why it's not a surprised that Tesla is developing Optimus is because you think about what self-driving is it's it's a device a car with a whole bunch of cameras on it it takes in all that visual information and then it makes decisions about how to move and how to react and then it's it's
trained based on mirroring human decisions all those human decisions that Tesla's been able to gather through the combination of self-driving with humans intervening allows it to train the the self-driving I guess brain you could say well and it's also Sachs moving at two or three miles per hour so it can take its time and if you haven't
seen this figure this combines the language model with what you're discussing Sachs so the language models when you show them a picture and you say hey and this is from figure and there's a this is a their robot and it says hey give me something to eat have you guys seen this before I've heard some of the the founders of these robotics companies
talk about why they create robots in a humanoid shape and it's not just because they're trying to create a replacement for humans or something like that it's also because now they can point cameras at the way that humans move yes and so they can actually train these robots on how humans move and react to things so you're able to kind of create a large
data set kind of like with self-driving so that the robots are able to learn how to how to move and I I've seen a different video where uh Optimus the Tesla robot is folding shirts you seen that pretty impressive yeah what's what's really interesting about this freeberg is when I spoke to the the people who are making these Evolution has made humans to operate in the world most
efficiently over whatever number of years and creatures before us so in fact the world is optimized for the human body type and so maybe you could talk a little bit about what you think is going to happen with these robots freedberg in the in the short and medium term when will we have one of these robots in our houses what will the price point be in 5
to 10 years and what will they be doing in five to 10 years I don't know we should explore we should explore that question at the all-in summit 2024 okay shout out to Elon Elon can you bring Optimus to the event please Jason I don't think it's a 5year time frame I think it's longer than that that's just my guess and one of the reasons is if
you look at the use of robots in call it industrial production today they don't want humans getting too close to them they're actually kind of dangerous because you have these arms flying around they move quickly they're very heavy you get banged on the head by one of them it's going to take you out so a good point the idea of having a robot in your house that's capable of freely
moving you have to make that so safe to a point that they just haven't gotten to yet with robots so there's just going to be a lot of fine-tuning work that happens before this is a domestic product I think in the near term it's all about industrial applications or maybe even military applications well it's and if you've ever been to the the
gigafactories I I was doing a little tour of one of them once and somebody grabbed me because I almost wandered into one of those areas and they have tape on the floor then they have a wall Etc but if you even get within a certain closeness with this tape on the floor it shuts the whole thing down because they're afraid somebody's going to get crushed behind One of These Arms
chth I'll give it to you when will we have one of these robots in our homes for the price of a Prius now oh by the way Prius is a car that cost about $50,000 that common folk drive so $50,000 robot in our houses I think it'll be less than that I think it's going to be in the next two or three years you'll have a domestic help robot that you can probably pay a
thousand bucks a month for okay which would be like a $100,000 car payment that would be the equivalent of a car payment on a $100,000 car so okay you say under five you say three what do you think free BR same bet $1,000 a month robot $100,000 sticker price when will we have that in our homes no no I think it's a thousand a month thousand a month
which would be the equivalent over whatever number of months and what is it it does its general purpose does different stuff General pures robot $1,000 a month 50 payments I think it washes the dishes I think it will do the laundry take out the trash there'll be like a whole set of house household tasks that it will do walk the dog no no not responsible for a live
creature what do you say freeberg $1,000 a month at home robot does your dishes there's a there's a great bet for us give us the over under how many years free I'm not sure I think the sold of science come on man give us a year well I I don't think it necessarily follows this general purpose model I think that there are like going to be
more narrow application ranges and they're not going to necessarily be humanoid in form factor um I don't know if you guys have seen a gecko robotics if have you guys seen this company are you guys investors in this nope pretty impressive like Suite of um autonomous products that do specific things in industrial settings so they have like robots that climb on the
outside of buildings and look for cracks using special scanning equipment but they're very autonomous in how they operate and what they can do and they've got a whole class of robots that can then be each one of those robots can do many different tasks for many different applications and so the form factors they've got kind of a set of
form factors meaning a set of robots that look differently and have different capabilities of them like little spider legs or arms or or whatever and then they can be applied to go do something autonomously and then they just run and they do it if you pull that up you'll see it climbing walls riding along pipes yeah they're purpose Built Well they're
not purpose that's what's interesting they're they're sort of a narrow range of applications but they're not specific to do only one thing and so they can work in different environments and do different things and so you'll kind of pick from their Suite of robots which ones you want to use to do different oh God tasks and then they go and do it it's really interesting
they're mostly using them for industrial monitoring applications right now like looking on bridges for brakes and CLE cleaning windows cleaning windows all that kind of stuff oh cleaning windows that's a good one yeah so they've got like a really cool suite and I think that's what we're likely to see in domestic settings as well all right so you
play by the way I will say the success of gecko indicates that there's far more money to be made in industrial applications and there in consumer applications today I disagree so these yeah I think every human's going to have one of these I think every household in America every middle class household in America will have one of these thousand
a month robots in seven years I'll give it seven you you say do to do everything I say to do domestic chores taking out the trash fold and laundry domestic tasks I just think it's hard to justify that because you're only spending so many hours a week doing that sort of stuff is it really worth a th000 bucks a month whereas in the industrial setting
it makes a lot more sense those dangerous tasks like climbing on a bridge looking at the seams and climbing on a a building cleaning the windows those tasks take years to do sometimes many many years of high-risk human labor whereas taking out the trash and folding laundry might be a little bit more hard to justify this SP all right more breaking news here during the program
we'll get our war correspondent our geopolitical expert David Sachs what are you seeing on the wies S well there's a NATO meeting going on right now and blinkin did a press conference where he says that Ukraine will be joining NATO that's the big news going viral right now Ukraine will become a member uh of NATO uh our purpose at the Summit is to
help build a bridge to that membership uh and uh to create a clear pathway for uh for Ukraine uh moving forward but uh of course we believe that UK Ukraine deserves to be a member of NATO and that this should happen sooner rather sooner sooner rather than later jamat any thoughts on this flip that just broke during the program well we just I think NATO just
added Sweden right and it was done in pretty record time from application to admission so I would like to know whether is this just rhetoric to just keep everybody at Bay and plate the ukrainians or is this real the problem that this creates is that if it is real and they're admitted then NATO has to defend Ukraine which means that then America and all the other NATO allies
would have to fight which means that we're in a war America should not be in a war just give you the exact facts you are correct Sweden Finland applied to join in May 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and they had been neutral as you know for many decades Finland has a massive land border with Russia and they joined in April of 2023
after applying in May of 22 so just a year later and Sweden became a member in March of 2024 just two years later E's membership was held up by both turkey and Hungary saak you are a resident expert on Ukraine and all things geopolitical your thoughts on the one hand what blinkin is saying is more the same here because it's been the administration's policy to seek to bring
uh Ukraine into NATO since they took office they've reiterated that over and over again and it's one of the major reasons for this war is that the Russians said over and over again this was a red line for them that's why there's a war in Ukraine the idea that you're going to be able to bring Ukraine into NATO however when the war is going
so badly is now entering the territory of being delusional I mean this is like a delusional comment and if you just want to understand how badly things are going look at yesterday's Politico which was called Ukraine is at Great risk of its front lines collapsing the source for this article was high ranking uh Ukrainian officials close to zelu who's
the former commander-in-chief some people speculated that zi himself might be the source but at a minimum it's high-ranking Ukrainian officers who reported to zelu and what they say in this article is that the prognosis in Ukraine is grim they say that the sad truth is that even if the funding bill is approved by the US Congress a massive resupply may not be enough to prevent a
major Battlefield upset they say that there is a great risk of the front lines collapsing wherever Russian generals decide to focus their offensive which people expect in the next few months and there's nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious Technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is
likely to hurl at us this is a quote from one of the Ukrainian officials we don't have those Technologies and the West doesn't have them as well ins sufficient numbers so what they're saying is that even if the funding bill goes through the 61 billion it's not going to be enough to save Ukraine and at the very moment that that is now being finally honestly reported by
Western media it's something I've been saying now for months finally the truth is coming out you have blinkin doubling and tripling down on these comments that nevertheless Ukraine will be joining NATO and chamath is right under Article 5 an attack on one is an attack on all therefore if Ukraine becomes part of NATO an attack on Ukraine by Russia
which is currently ongoing will be considered an attack on the United States then you have to add to the mix the fact that macron and other European leaders have actually been advocating for NATO descending ground troops and he said this over and over again he's doubled down on this multiple times so you have a dynamic now where this isn't just hot rhetoric by blinkin this really
has the risk of tipping over into policy I would say in a Biden second term where Biden agrees to do what our European allies are already calling for which is send in NATO troops to Ukraine to save Ukraine from what Politico calls an imminent collapse I think this is a very dangerous situation I mean we're really talking about here is World War III so
if you want to have a serious chance of World War I in the next four years and I would say go ahead and vote for Biden in November I mean this is just very clear to me I'm personally not willing to accept that risk I'm not willing to accept a 10% or 1% risk of that chance but I think blink putting it on the table here I think people should be
deeply concerned about this and there should be a lot of followup questions for blinkin and the administration about this freeberg should the free country of Ukraine be able to join NATO on some timeline or should they be banned from ever joining NATO I think the statements are correct that Ukraine joining NATO escalates conflict and we will find ourselves in a
deao global conflict World War now the question is is that the the cycle the natural cycle I will once again Nick pull it up please reference ralo and his typical big cycle behind Empires rise and decline as he spoke at length with us in person about at the Allin Summit last year he points out that the era of prosperity that over the last 500 years
we've seen six major Empires go through is followed by a debt bubble which uh drives a wealth gap which ultimately leads to economic challenges which means printing more money which is the cycle we are going through right now with a as you guys know2 to three trillion dollar annual deficit and explosion in um federal debt levels and that ultimately
leads inevitably to external conflict to war now the particular motivations in every case in all six times this has happened in the last 500 years look different when you read the history books about what were the circumstances that drove us to external conflict that drove that Nation to war but the truth is every single one of them was preceded
by a debt bubble income and inequality wealth Gap and the printing of money and there's a relationship between those economic factors and a desire for conflict and I think that is what we are seeing play out over the past couple of years starting with our um motivated interest in supporting Ukraine against uh the Russia conflict and now escalating it towards inviting Ukraine
to join NATO to escalate the conflict itself now I think there's a notion that having a war is stimulating having a war is unifying this should Wag the door Wag the Dog Theory I I don't think it's a Wag the Dog Theory as much as it is what do you do when the economic condition of the na nation is such that the federal government has to print money to support
the economy and or to bridge the wealth Gap and when under those circumstances in order to unify the country in order to motivate a system of unification amongst a fracturing Society or fracturing economic strata you feel like you have to have an external enemy and that the notion of War itself is economically stimulating I think that those are the motivating
factors that we've seen play out six times in the last 500 years and we may be unfortunately seeing play out here again as we talked to Graham Allison Ray Doo about last year we said what can we do to avoid this that there have been times historically where these things have been avoided but if we're not being cognizant what's going on here and
motivating a different tact and a different path whether it's through our electoral cycle or through being loud and vocal in whatever media channels we each have access to to make folks more aware of this I think you know we will find ourselves walking down this path of looking for global conflict and finding it jamat you look like you wanted to
chime in there yeah of the three presidential candidates to be very clear one is supportive then of some kind of Confrontation because by proxy they're supportive of admitting Ukraine into NATO which would create a war and two are pretty clearly antiwar and just for people who know the uh boom bus cycle behind Empire's rise and declines you can see that if you're on the the
YouTube video but the sixth of eight moments is revolutions and Wars as freeberg is pointing out there are two more that come after that debt and political restructuring and then the New World Order emerges and so the question here I guess becomes can diplomacy win the day and then is blink's point that they eventually can become a member or
that they're imminently going to become a member and it's breaking news so we don't know if he's speaking about this clearly let's just be really clear on this the words he used were very carefully chosen yeah and that means that there was a media and press strategy conversation that was had by him and his staff which obviously found its way into the White House
administra and that there was executive conversation about this this is the positioning we need to now be clearly stating which means that this is now policy he did not slip up on those words this was not some offthe cuff comment this was clearly a media trained statement which means that it is it is Administration deled by him exactly at
the next White House Press Conference you will hear the question asked by reporters is this the White House position and they will say yes it is yeah and just to be clear that that video had a couple of edits in it and we don't have the full press conference here the quote from the hill is Ukraine will become a member of NATO period our purpose at the Summit is to help build a
bridge to that membership which then seems like this would this if you're building a bridge that takes time so maybe they mean overtime the fullness of time I to be able to do this in the next year would be if it was on the time timeline of Finland would be insane I I cannot it would be insane but they're not ruling it out and I think you have to look at the context of what's
Happening he's making these remarks as all the news from the battlefield is terrible Ukraine is losing and it's at risk of collapsing and European leaders like mccrone are therefore calling for direct NATO intervention in the war so for blinkin to be making this sort of statement as really adding fuel to the fire and let's see if he walks it back
let's see if clarifies it I predict that he won't because this is adct clarification for sure because this does not feel like it' be good for voting because the war is incredibly unpopular it'll make the election pretty simple every other issue all the social issues that we fight about will fall away the debt will fall away the Border will fall
away if this is true it's does America want to go to war well chamath I think I think we're already at that point even if there is some sort of clarification and the reason I say that is because Biden clearly is very committed to this Ukraine policy it didn't just start when he became president it started when he became vice president and was managing
the Ukraine portfolio for Obama this is why Hunter Biden got that job in Ukraine because Biden was running the show there and they have been very committed to this idea of bringing Ukraine into NATO for decades I mean he supported when he was a Senator so this is not like freeberg said this is not like just some randomly chosen words out of the blue
blink measures his words carefully he knows what he's saying and this is something that Biden clearly is passionate about and what you have to believe is that in a Biden second term he's going to manage this whole uh situation so perfectly that this war is not going to escalate any further and I just I have no confidence in that remember if you want to use a historical
analogy go back to woodro Wilson in 1916 he was elected on literally the catchphrase he kept us out of War less than one year later we were in World War I World War I yeah so this idea of well Biden wouldn't possibly get us into a war I mean history shows otherwise history shows that presidents once they win reelection are more likely to get us
into war rather than less because they don't have to fear voters so then the question is what is in Joe Biden's heart what's he passionate about he is clearly passionate about this cause about bringing Ukraine into NATO and certainly not having Ukraine collapse or lose this war whereas Trump and Bobby Kennedy have both said that they will end this war they will seek a peace deal if
elected I think that's enough right there yeah I mean and obviously Lincoln and Biden are looking for peace as well they just don't want to lose the war no they're not looking for peace I disagree with that I think they are definitely looking for peace You can disagree but they definitely want peace why they re the deal at IST at the beginning of this
war yeah yeah because they uh I think don't want Russia to determine who gets to be in NATO and they want free countries to decide is that a war for I mean that that is I guess the existential question here is at what point do we want to let free democracies determine their future and protect them from invading countries that is like actually the core of this is do you
believe in democracy do you believe free countries should have the autonomy to pick their future and is that worth fighting for that is the question the world faces right now I think that framing I think that framing is not totally accurate I think of course those things are good and right things I think the thing is on the balance of issues
there are seasons when certain priorities need to be shaped by a country and right now we're in a season where there's tremendous domestic instability in our country and and our bance our country you're saying in our country yeah and our balance sheet is breaking so I think the question isn't that is democracy important of course it's important it's how relatively
important is it abroad relative to these domestic issues here yeah that I hold on let me just finish is it worth fighting for is the issue and is it worth fighting for when you don't have the resources to do it now if we were sitting here and a country next to Ukraine was invaded say Finland or say France or another country in Europe was invaded we would absolutely go to bat
for them but for Ukraine we won't go to bat for them they're not part part of NATO and you know this is the when go to are you saying are you saying send American soldiers because that's what we're talking about if France or Finland was in would you be opposed if France would if Russia invaded France would you defend France would you be in favor of
the course that's our article that's our article five guarantee under NATO this is why I don't want to extend an article 5 guarantee to Ukraine because it will put us directly in conflict with Russia and I'm not interested in being in war war II right and then so Finland and Sweden come up and I guess the argument would be would you be in favor of
sending troops to defend Finland and Sweden they latest members of NATO and would you be in favor of committed now we're committed and were you in favor of them joining NATO I guess is the next question should we discussed it on the Pod I explained that it was creating a liability not an asset but what's done is done should free countries be able to
join NATO I guess is at the end of the I think that's an excellent question actually let me make two points on that the first one is countries don't have a right to join NATO any more than I have a right to join Augusta Country Club just because I'm a golf player doesn't mean I get to join Augusta okay it's up to the current membership of Augusta or
NATO to decide whether they're going to Emmit a country based on what is in their interest it has never been in our interest to make Ukraine a security dependent of the United States sorry this is the reality the second thing I want to point out is that what was Russia demanding they were demanding Ukrainian neutrality they were not basically looking to conquer Ukraine
they wanted them to be neutral so Ukraine did not have to give give up its freedom okay they just had to agree to be neutral that was the key issue that's what makes it very different than some other historical analogies and that was not acceptable to us at the very beginning of the war blinkin said that we would insist on an open door policy
we would yeah clearly the right move here would have been to kick the C down the road and just tell Putin we'll take it off we'll take NATO off the table for 10 years or 20 years and then we could have outlasted Putin you and I agreed on you agreed on that before the war started and the war started everyone forgot that that was the key kasus belli
of this war just more diplomacy it's better can I just say one thing that go ahead Sak you would be the perfect member of Augusta were not for one small issue be careful J Ryan withno oh austa oh my gosh that was my favorite from who is the lunatic derang guy from New York was he in Congress they expelled him after six months George Santos Santos they like are you
Jewish he's like I'm jewi is is is like a little pause in the middle all right listen another amazing episode episode 173 congratulations to our CEO John Hal he's with us now I we'll make Jesus Christ uh nice call back please do us a favor do us a favor 486,000 people following the YouTube channel get in there and be part of the Q&A when we hit 500,000 and your best
chance of being part of the one million subscriber party which I think chat's gonna oversee it'll be at the win in Las Vegas there oh okay there it is we we have a location and then the Allin Su make an announcement next week go to YouTube Type in Allin and subscribe for the Rainman David Sachs yeah chth poopaa the German dictator and
your Sultan of science Who Loved Dune 2 he loved it he saw it twice overated that good I'm going to see it twice I'm gonna go see it again go see it in IM my God the comment boards got so angry furious at furious at overrated I mean this set them off like nothing has ever set them off I don't know try making a comment about Trump enjoy my world you can't attack Tim Timothy
shalam sh my God man they were really rushing to his defense I mean he does look like he drinks a lot of soy I'll be honest I think that guy only I don't think that guy's ever had whole milk I think skinny I think skinny people like that when you're super skinny like that you travel in packs to protect each other as a group oh so like you can get in a group
like hyenas or something and then just protect each other yeah it's like like oh we got to stick up for each other because if we don't you know hey are you standing sideways pod like they're like a pod a pod of the old like the Roman Turtle protection thing that they were do yeah yeah Shields up as one as one so is now up to 630 million in the box office pretty
pretty good run huh you know they're gonna do D and three now oh it's definitely happen he's just gonna be negotiating a big price tagal big deal yeah big deal all right everybody you know what to do and we'll see you next time on love you boys the world greatest podcast all tell your friends your win ride David and instead we open source it to
the fans and they've just gone crazy with it love [Music] you besties that's my dog taking your driveways oh man oh man myit will meet me at we should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all useless it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow we need to get merch [Music] our I'm going all in