Nat and I have goals when I play poker she always leaves me with the following play well check have fun check do not eat late at night never a check as soon as we finish dinner within 20 minutes back at the poker table chat's like may I have my hog andaz now may I have my second hog andaz now Helm you
are fire up the cheeseburger melt did you see freeberg you should have last week hel at the dinner table Shawn made some like incredible I thought like fresh sorbet of some fruit or whatever he at the dinner table ordered from door Dash double stuff Oreos some Nutter Butters and some je they arrived when we left dinner and
got back to the poker room it was so disgusting and then the next day my whole household everybody Nat the kids are like what are these things they were like holding up these Nutter Butters they looking at never seen another but the best part about Phil Hut's door Dash addiction is that like at least once a
month chamath would be like somebody ordered like four Entre like pastas and two desserts to my house and I didn't order it and it FS like oh that's me on the group jet that's me yeah cuz he doesn't take the time to change his address back to his house and then you see the naked truth of what he's ordering [Music] let your winners ride rman
David and instead we open sourc it to the fans and they've just gone crazy [Music] with one person who's not going to be eating well is s SPF he was just sentenced breaking news Thursdays continues here at the all-in podcast episode 172 but SPF was just sentenced with me again today on the Pod of course the
dictator chairman chamath ptia sultant of science David freeberg and the Rainman yeah David Sachs I'm Jason kis welcome back to the number one podcast in the world episode 172 of the all podcast your favorite SPF just senten 25 years they're always overhyping always hype man absolutely I'm I'm a hype man I'm
like flavor flave of this organization SPF Sam bankman freed of FTX was found guilty as you know couple of months ago in November and he just got sentenced to 25 years in total FTX customers lost 8 billion investors lost 1.7 billion and lenders lost 1.3 billion is that without parole um when is he eligible for that
that is a good question it doesn't say what the parole could be the prosecutors had there's no possibility of parole in federal criminal cases yeah so Federal prosecutors saw 40 to 50 years so the judge went a little bit light I guess and gave half in a sentencing judge Lewis Kaplan said s SPF had lied throughout the trial and showed no
remorse quote he knew it was wrong he knew it was criminal he regrets that he made a very bad bet about the likelihood of getting caught but he is not going to admit a thing as is his right in related news FTX is also selling the majority of its stake in anthropic for 884 million to mubadala The Sovereign one of the
Sovereign wealth funds from the UAE and other investors including Jane Street where SPF worked for a hot minute the Ford Foundation Fidelity and some other investors from CNBC lawyers representing the bankruptcy estate told the judge in Delaware last month that they expect to fully repay customers and creditors with
legitimate claims in the FTX case that doesn't take into account Equity holders so looks like that one investment could save a lot of people their deposits I saw an analysis recently that showed that they were going to be in a surplus so investors were going to get money back and all the depositors were going
to get their full 100% back yeah I don't know how much Bitcoin or other coins they owned but if they didn't sell Bitcoin at 30 or 40 and it's at 60 or 70 now yeah that would be material right the crazy thing is that SPF was not it turns out a terrible investor he made a seed investment in a thropic that's worth billions now he made a seed
investment in salana that I think is worth billions now especially now that salana has recovered I think that salana was tarred with the brush of being a Sam coin because SPF invested in it but as it turns out as far as we know it's a completely legitimate developer project Sam was an investor but not a
participant and you look at the price of it it's now rallied to something like an 80 billion market cap yeah the point being that a lot of the Investments he made ended up being pretty good Investments and FTX itself the trading platform as far as we know was a functional workable business I mean it was a offshore crypto Marketplace so I
don't want to necessarily use the word legitimate but I think that it was I think as good as any of these trading platform so the the crazy part of this is I'd say unlike the madeof case where from the beginning with off it was entirely a Ponzi scheme there was nothing of value there in this case you had a call it legitimate or semi
legitimate crypto platform combined with some legitimate Angel Investments and so what I think went wrong here was Alam that Sam decided to siphon off customer deposits to gamble with his hedge fund which was completely optional he didn't need to do that I mean he already had a winning business and winning bets in his
portfolio so this whole Alam thing he didn't need to get into and then of course siphoning off customer deposits to spray around for political donations to feel like you're a big shot was also really stupid so this is the crazy thing I think about s SPF is it was sort of like this this manic there was like a a
manic element to it there was a Messianic element to it he wanted to take shortcuts he wanted to believe he was going to save the world and then did all these criminal things in pursuit of that that he didn't really need to in order to be successful and that's why I think it's such a curious case is it's not it
wasn't full made off in a way because there were some legitimate elements to to his portfolio you're right about the Messianic thing these guys were all drunk on this effective altruism concept that I think whatever crimes they committed by stealing the deposits and then going and investing them they saw
themselves as Robin Hood we're going to take these deposits we're going to make a ton of money and then we're going to give it all away of course they didn't have a CFO nobody did diligence on these Investments there were no controllers in place and he was literally stealing his customers money to gamble as and and I think I think
actually one one quote that I saw reported uh from the judge was that if you steal customers money go to Vegas gamble it yes you're still guilty even if you can pay them back with the winnings yeah but that suggests to me that actually the the FTX trustee is is on a path to repaying the 11 billion of customer deposits that were absconded
with I just found it I don't know if that's true or not it is true in early February the trustee said they now expect 100% payment back to the depositors in all the accounts and all the excess will go to the shareholders and FTX all the preferred holders that invested in the stock I don't know um what the total
prep stack was in FTX but it sounds like there's going to be recovery there as well after all of the customer deposits are made whole wow so this my point is he didn't need to do this I mean it was so insane I mean FTX like I said was a workable business he made workable seed bets but then he went crazy with Alam and the the robin stuff
and so it's just such a interesting Al by the way sax Alam is what he started with so he he started a firm that was meant to Arbitrage crypto markets because there's all these different markets that didn't connect around the world so the original concept was that he would set up a hedge fund like at
Jane Street to Arbitrage and so he would Arbitrage crypto pairs using different exchanges around the world he set up all these different accounts and he would trade long one way short the other way and make a spread and then he made so much money on the hedge fund and he said why don't we just do this all centrally
and that's how he started setting up FTX was it his own cryptocurrency exchange so like the Legacy was that Alam was there from the beginning and the Arbitrage across these illiquid no transparency type markets was really the core driving principle when he started all this work the crypto exchange came later and so it was like
he always had this orientation that he was trying to AR everything and I think I told you guys this when I saw that video on YouTube right after he got arrested and then they took it down off of YouTube it was like an hourong video showing him trading and doing his day job in the office it reminded me of like
a mouse in a maze like trying to like everything was like AR like he was Finding little arbs he could make everywhere nonstop they weren good at lost ton of money and then money yeah and then he puts this dingbat in charge of alam who proceeds to lose billions of dollars I mean the whole thing was so stupid I mean it's gonna be such a great
movie I can't wait for the movie I think one of the craziest parts of this is he had co-founders in FTX who weren't part of alam and they just let him do this why would they do that I mean their own stakes in FTX minus Alam could have been worth many millions of dollars hundreds of millions of dollars many billions of dollars I mean the
truth is in business you can do all kinds of criminal and crazy things until you get caught and these folks were doing insane crazy things that the system is based on trust and people can break that trust we saw it remember with um what was uh full T poker they were also taking the customer accounts and
gambling oh those dollars they literally mixed the operations budget and the customer deposits at full tale poker part of the part of the rationale if I remember right I read the the Michael Lewis book on this and part of the rationale SPF gave to Michael Lewis was that Alam was supposed to be a market maker liquidity
provider to The Exchange so they were playing an active role on the exchange of making trades available to create the market and that was a key aspect of getting the market moving was that they had this well capitalized Market maker and they knew how to actively trade on a platform and they just built their own
platform and then they were able to attract with more liquidity more participants onto their exchange and that might have kick started it yeah but that could have kickstarted it but like you know five minutes into it you could probably turn that off I mean right you know what I'm saying like yeah they
didn't need to do that once you get to a certain point also these people were all on speed so there's that it contributed to the Mania yeah I think like they were they were hopped up on speed and they felt that they were gods and that you know stocks go up coins go up they can do anything they want they can hang out
with celebrities it just got diluted and they were super entitled I mean this is a level of entitlement and criminal behavior that we rarely see doesn't matter if their tokens went up when I had my one and only interaction with SPF which was over a zoom I asked for a model and this arrogant dingdong that worked for him
sent me like a feline Excel spreadsheet and I thought and I thought this is the worst example of arrogance in Hubers I've ever seen I I had one interaction with SPF uh oh do you want to hear it yeah I got a little bit of a of a tiff with him so it was at a at a Tech conference uh this a few years ago this is when he was
absolutely at his like Peak like everybody wanted to talk to him he was sort of holding Court he had a bunch of lackes around him and this is like a pretty exclusive Tech conference I'm not going to Tar their name by mentioning them in this context but so a friend of mine said you want to go over and meet with
SPF and so I said sure whatever so we go sit down and I start asking him about this ballot initiative that he was funding in California to raise our taxes to fund a pandemic prevention Center and as it later turned out that his brother was going to run this thing and so I I said to him you don't even live in California what are you
doing funding a ballot initiative here in my state where I live you live in the Bahamas or whatever in order to fund this boond doggle which by the way is looking in the rearview mirror we don't need it like CO's over and even if we did need a pandemic prevention center the federal government should do it not
California taxpayers and he starts getting very animated and defend this thing end up we sort of getting into an argument and uh so I kind of you know ended it by saying well listen I'm going to um just let you know like I'm going to publicly oppose this you know vigorously and uh because I you know I just wanted to let him know like I'm
going to call you out for this standing up for the little guy David David sax coming in here standing up for his state so when I got back from that conference I actually talked about it on this pod I talked about that ballot initiative in California and that was the the or story that yeah capitulated right oh that's
right yeah like a month later they dropped that thing because it was too much heat but little did we know that they were in mesh in all this criminality and they were absconding with all this money what is Sam bankman Freed's brother's name bam bankman freed was it like Gabe or something ah Gabe
nice I had one interaction with him at some uh at a annual general meeting I got asked to interview him and it was like a private Affair a couple of months before this all blew up and he's dressed like a slob you know like literally doesn't look like he showered clothes don't fit he's wearing flipflops and shorts is kind of like the
shtick and he's a billionaire blah blah blah and I start talking to him and his leg is shaking like restless leg syndrome I mean it but no it's he's got his hand on and he's trying control did he have restless leg syndrome it's bouncing I kid you not like a 100 times a minute it was disturbing disturbing and so I'm
wondering if this guy's got a panic attack or what's going on and I kind of like toned down my crypto skepticism questions because I felt so bad for him that I thought I was having a panic attack and then I realized this guy's hopped up on speed and he's got so much uh of Aderall or whatever these these
kids were taking some patches that you wear to release this stuff I am convinced that these guys were taking a level of speed unbelievable that would kill an elephant like Vietnam War level yeah like these guys were out there I mean he w i mean patches these guys were wearing patches and he was shaking was it like this no
oh did Hitler have he was apparently tot was also on speed that looks like he's on amphetamines there yeah it did look like that H it was kind of almost exactly like that oh my God where's that for people who don't know the Third Reich was on speed there's like many many stories about this yes a that they were hopped
up on spe I believe so I'm not sure but I believe so big I think entire books have been written about yeah drug use by the the third re but yeah I haven't delved into it yeah no no i' I listened to a couple podcasts about it in fact and uh so it must be true um I've listened to some podcasts All Right Moving On in the uh if it was on
MSNBC it must be true or fox or fox or if it was uh beep the great your Anonymous friend on Twitter must be true all right Trump just made5 billion dollar on paper with his memes back Trump's social network has finally DPed it's now publicly traded you can go by Donald Trump spack at djt is the ticker
symbol they are on Pace for a whopping $4.5 million in Revenue you on a $60 million loss they're growing like 3x year-over-year and the company is not disclosing any user metrics this quote from one of their recent filings is next at this juncture in its development tmtg the Trump media and Technology Group believes that adhering to
traditional kpis such as signups average revenue per user add Impressions and pricing or active user accounts including monthly and daily active users could potentially divert its focus from strategic evaluation with respect to the progress and growth of its business so they're not tracking isn't that the business
I it's so laughable like I can barely get through it that's crazy they said that literally they said it it's a quote from their SEC filing according to similar web estimat truth social had about five 5 million visits last month as of Thursday morning it's worth about 8.5 billion same as Reddit or close to 2,000 times Topline Revenue company had
about $300 million in cash after the merger by comparison Reddit uh has 800 million in Revenue their Market Cap's 8.4 billion or about 10 times Revenue so uh it should be about five six seven times Revenue would be more realistic according to basic media comps Reddit had two billion visits last month with
73 million daily active users that's pretty significant uh this spack took a long time to close there was an SEC investigation into three men allegedly making 23 million buying then dumping shares of dwac after the merger was announced they all faced at least five fraud and conspiracy charges of course this is
what happened before it was despa and so what do you think trath thoughts on this so just to be clear I just think we should be really clear because you're just Flo putting this insider trading thing out there as part of the introduction which is a huge allegation and we have to be really clear that is related to a few investors
and not to the company itself and their the company spack was approved by the SEC so I just think to be clear here Char yeah just to be super clear SEC charges former dwac board member and others for insider trading dwac I just don't think this is the story this is just not this is the reason it was delayed so just to be
clear it was the whole this whole thing's been delayed for a couple years because of this okay fine so it was delayed the SEC approved it the company is now trading yeah what do you think of the valuation and that's the real topic isn't it here's what I'll say I think that this is a really important watershed moment and it reminds me of
1997 Nick throw this little image up in 1997 David Bowie issued what was then famously called the Bowie Bond it was $55 million that yielded 7.5% which is about 80 bips above the 10year at the time these were 10e bonds that's awesome I didn't know that the bond payments were linked to 20 albums that Bowie had
released before 1990 and so these are like 280 songs and what he basically said was like listen folks you're essentially buying a piece of me and in this case my past work and I'm going to take this $55 million upfront and you're going to get paid this interest based on the royalties that I generate off that historic
library for a 10-year period we think you're going to get paid the 55 million plus the 7 and a half% a year and then I'm going to take back the rights and if I default if these bonds default you will own the songs and it turned out that it was an incredible bet the people that bought it I think it was credential which was an
insurance I think it's an insurance company they got paid the bonds did not default in 2007 and Bowie took back the ownership of that catalog of that back catalog but instead what he had was 55 million up front which allowed him to go and buy all kinds of other parts of his catalog that he didn't otherwise own so why is this
interesting this was the first example I think of people monetizing themselves their name and their likeness in this case it was done via debt I actually think when you look today what's happening is a a more sophisticated version of that move movement but at much larger scale I mean we were all joking that there was a
bunch of meme coins that launched not with any of our support by the way but you know with our names with all these other quasi famous people's names those things went up and were worth millions of dollars of value and I think what this Donald J Trump the djt company what it represents is effectively a trading coin a baseball
card if you will a trading card via a stock on the value of Donald Trump's Enterprise Value his name his recognition and his likeness so this I think is the modern instantiation of the Bowie Bond and what's incredible is you can see Bowie 30 or 40 years ago he could have generated $55 million in
inflation adjusted dollars that's about a 100 million in today's dollars Trump three a half 4 billion I think it sits on top of this idea that the [Music] that will be buyers that essentially will buy this as a Donald Trump a directional bent on the value of his brand and I'm also predicting that many other
individuals will go public and have Enterprise values that are levered in the same way as djt and that is a modern version of the boy bond from 97 freeberg your thoughts on the chat's argument that this is a proxy for the value of Donald J Trump's brand I think that's certainly one reason why people are buying the stock and driving
the price up and another one is probably a vote against traditional media that there's a contingent of folks who are basically voting with their dollars and saying we want an alternative to traditional media and traditional publishing platforms that have censorship that we don't agree with or have editorialization that we don't
agree with and that this investment I think represents a way for them to vote and say I don't want the old way I want a new way and while this may or may not be the new way that succeeds it may or may not be a great business and it may or may not even have much viewership or or usefulness it's a mechanism by which
people can put some money down and say I'm voting on an alternative I want to see an alternative so I do think that there's a flasho indication that arises from this that's more than just the meming aspect of it which is certainly fun everyone crowds into a stock stock price goes up it's it's kind of like to
the moon and so on I think there's also this element of demand for alternative media there's demand for a different type of publishing platform and so I think that that's what this most represents to me from a um what the market is telling us perspective I think there's one other thing going on here which is that this
represents a populist reaction to the law fair against Donald Trump that I think Trump's supporters want to support him against all of these lawsuits and this persecution that he's been facing and I think one proof of this is if you turn the dial over to MSNBC they've been losing their minds all week over this
because they thought they had finally gotten the man there was this $450 million judgment in New York that he was fined for supposedly inflating the value of of assets against which he got loans even though the bank did its own independent appraisal of the properties and even though the banks fully got paid back and said they wanted to keep doing
business with him so they thought they had finally gotten djt and he was going to have to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in fines and then lo and behold the spat comes along and he makes millions and millions of dollars now that's not locked in yet we're still in this lockup period where for six months
there's a very small float and it's probably the case that once there's more shares on a liquid Market we'll find out what the real valuation is so let's call the valuation we're seeing today based on a very small float let's call this more of a preliminary number and Trump can't sell yet but presumably after six
months when the Locka comes off he'll be able to sell so look I think fundamentally what's going on here is this is political Trump's enemies are angry about this spack because they see that it gives him a lifeline and I think Trump's supporters are deliberately buying this stock to support their guy and to say that this laware against
Trump that basically seeks to imprison the man or bankrupt the man instead of Simply run against him is a new low in American political discourse and I think there's millions of people who agree with that and some of them are willing to buy this stock as a as a protest vote I agree 100% with the protest vote it's
uh you know he had what 60 70 million people vote for him he got 74% 74 million rather 46.8% to Biden's 81 million if but 2% of those people want to buy the stock it's a million and a half people and that's exactly what's happening here they don't care if they lose the money actual value of this company with five million in
Revenue four million in yearly Revenue I mean if you really want it to be absolutely insane and give it 100 x valuation it's worth 400 million and so then if whatever Goodwill Donald Trump's likeness is maybe that's another 500 million but you'll lose a large amount of money I predict if if you buy
this and if you're buying it as a protest vote sure go for it why don't you uh jcal why don't you short it as a j TR never shorted a stock and I I I I think remember Gabe plin no who's this oh remember from uh Melvin Capital he thought he could he blew up his fun shorting GameStop he thought he could out all the Apes yeah I
mean that's exactly why I wouldn't do it I've never short it I think that you know you get these Trump voters and it starts going up because of the small float which is what's happening now they might send this thing to 880 billion you know who knows what is possible with the short float and a mo motivated you know
million two million people you guys are bringing up something else as well which is we've shifted from fundamental-based stock trading being the overwhelming driver to there's a lot of like very speculative day overday activity that you can't control anymore and I think it's part and parcel of what's happening in other
markets in America as well so when you look at sort of like what happened in 2016 where the Supreme Court said each state can regulate Sports gambling all forms of like online gamesmanship and betting just started to Skyrocket it could be casinos Lottery sports betting it didn't matter but everything just caught a massive
ginormous bid and when you look at the products that service the retail Market they've also become increasingly gamified Robin Hood is probably the best example of of having built an incredibly good business by making things more like a game and then recently adding fuel to the fire are things like zero day options which
are just like and there was a big article in the Wall Street Journal where like one of the reporters she became addicted to it and like the Wall Street Journal gave her I want to say like like a few thousand bucks but she had to discor the profits and she like 2,000 ex she had she got like a 2,000% return or
something specking zero day options via Robin so the point is that on top of the whole movement to sort of allow individuals to monetize their own name and likeness via the stock market which we just talked about the second movement is that a lot of these things are becoming less financialized and more gamified and so you just have many more
participants and so to your point you can have a GameStop moment in any of these things you can have these zero day options run the stock to the Moon I would be I would tread very lightly here yeah and just another warning you know the the stock market bases things ultimately on like earnings and profits
and so when we look at this as a proxy and Mr Beast would have the same issue or Marther Stewart you have a key man key individual riskier I.E this person goes to jail they die whatever which Martha Stewart always had on her businesses and then what is included in this is key so when if he does another TV show and it becomes a hit again is
that included in this no if he has another building or his buildings included in this no if the golf course is included no what's included in this included in this deal when you buy djt is apparently just a reallya crazy you know social network that nobody uses so just be clear what you're buying no you're right the the more
sophisticated version of this Trading Card analogy would be if Donald Trump contributed his brand licensing Revenue in perpetuity to the asset and then it really is a longitudinal forward bet on the Trump name yeah and that that's sort of more like if vergin like if Richard Branson took the Virgin hold co- public
yes that's effectively what that is as well like you know Branson over 40 or 50 years has built an incredible business I think the stat that I heard when I got to know him was he's created 20 businesses worth at least a billion dollars or more over his with the Virgin brand with the Virgin brand and the Virgin brand is a licensing
model where he holds that right and he will license it to you for a share of the revenue that's independent of anything else that he may do with these businesses and so if he took that virgin hold co- public then what you're buying is a longitudinal discount a cash flow on the value of Virgin and to your point
if Trump contributed that name and likeness licensing capability into this by the way he could also still do that so to the extent that this business saw a contraction and maybe the truth social thing didn't end up being that valuable but the other aspects of the media business he could create by basically
saying okay look this will get a share of my licensing revenue for my name would effectively be a proxy to do that so he's got a lot of outs here to maintain this market value and then on top of that to your point there's 70 million odd people who would want to support him in one way shape or form I would not go anywhere near shorting it
given his uh his fan base is incredibly likely to keep buying these shares and if you want to know the actual value of this business today I'm an expert at this it's $0000 million it's $200 million it's not anywhere close to this put your money where your mouth is we just no no we just explained when you
have a small float like this and a rabid group of people who are gambling you will get your face ripped off stupidness what's that you'll get Plotkin yeah I mean it's it's disastrous I mean they what did they say we can be stupid longer we can be longer than you can be solvent the redor is such a great line I mean but you can gamble like this
on stocks yet you cannot invest in private companies I don't get the legal system in America be careful out there folks you will lose a large portion of money is my prediction if you buy the stock but but feel free if you want to gamble look I think I think this is all part of the ongoing backlash to law fair
yeah Joe Biden instructed his justice department to prosecute Trump it's in my view it's utterly impressed in American history for one president to try and prosecute imprison and bankrupt his main opponent in the political election and there are millions of Americans who are absolutely disgusted by this I think
it's a new low in American politics and God bless all the people buying these shares to support Trump just as a protest vote I don't know whether they're going to make money or lose money like I said I don't think you can justify the valuation based on fundamentals but you can sure as hell justify based on Payback yeah I mean if you want to give
your money to a billionaire buy the stock absolutely feel free I think prob I agree with you like maybe two of the six lawsuits are a bit weak I think the three or four other ones you know he committed the crimes and he's just paying the price but you know we can agree to disagree on this pod intelligent people do speaking of
intelligent people RFK Jr just picked up his running mate this is a little bit crazy and I'm really interested in hearing your thoughts on it he chose a 38-year-old bay area lawyer Nicole Shanahan as his VP RFK explained why he chose her she knows big Tech very well how they use AI to exploit the public
how they censor and suril Americans to push certain agenders she understands the health consequences of toxins in our air soil and food and he wanted a younger person to represent Millennials and gen Z he says younger Generations feel like nobody represents him in Washington he also wanted an athlete in good shape to
inspire Americans to live healthier lives and Shanahan donated 4 million in support of RFK Junior's Super Bowl ad that ran earlier this year sax what do you think of this pick well um this does not excite me I'll I'll be frank uh but since I'm going to say something critical I want to me start by saying something positive
because I I really you know I love Bobby Kennedy I mean I think that he represents a number of really great issues that I agree with I mean first of all he's been the most articulate critic of the Ukraine war understands it deeply and has explained it extremely well he stood up for sealing the Border he went
down there showed that it's out of control completely agree he was a vocal of fouchy and lockdowns was completely right about covid he he supports civil liberties and free speech so you know I want to say like Bobby Kennedy is great the issue I have with this pick is that she doesn't represent any of those issues she has a completely different
issue Matrix and uh I I watched her speech and just to say something positive about her I mean I like her enthusiasm I think she's 38 and it's nice to have someone running for political office who's not in their 70s or 80s and I think she's genuine I actually think she's saying what she really believes and that's really nice
and refreshing but again if you go back to the issues themselves she brought up three issues number one is she says she wants to make Americans healthy again it's the focus on chronic disease I'm not saying she's wrong about that that's just not my issue number two she brought up Criminal Justice Reform this one
concerns me apparently she donated to gasone who's a Soros da who helped destroy San Francisco and then failed upward to La so apparently she's a gasone supporter that does not fill me with confidence that is a quite frankly luxury liberal belief and this uh decarceration idea so I'm not excited about that her third issue was climate
and environment related but but in a very specific way she went after big agriculture she said we can no longer support extractive corporate agriculture I'm going to let freeberg speak to that one uh I can't really say whether she's right or wrong but that's not one of my issues so listen at the end of the day I
feel like this pick accentuates and underlines the issues in Bobby's platform that appeal to the to the left frankly to to liberals and I look I think Bobby's candidacy is a complex candidacy that brings together people from both left and right but again this pick does not speak to me it speaks to
the more liberal parts of his Coalition does it increase his chances and who would have been the person who would have increased his chances most tuls well the person who would have been amazing would have been Tulsi gabard okay if he had chosen tulsy that would have blown the doors off slam done yeah I mean and tulsi's been saying chth
publicly that she would be proud to serve with Trump and it's seeming likely that she's got a a shot at that yeah being the VP for Trump I'm not going to comment on that okay let me just say something else I think Tulsi gabard is really impressive I think she's independent and I think she really stands firmly on
her own two feet in a way that I find inspiring I like saaks have many many positive thoughts about Bobby Kennedy I think he is he was really a breath of fresh air Jason this in this election cycle because he was able to say the unsayable things and made those things more easy to be said by others and I think that
there's a really important role in that and I think he deserves a lot of credit for that and then the fact that he said things that were so unconventional and not mainstream that are now mainstream views I think says a lot to the fact that he was pretty grounded in first principal thinking on those topics
and I think that having those kinds of people in office are really good for America all of that said I do agree with David that I think the pick was meant to be more about covering his Left Flank and I found that an odd calculation and I wonder whether it wouldn't have been easier to cover the right flank and there are different
folks that are that could have been in the mix to do that and so I think that it was a calculation though and I think it's about he has a core set of issues it's about whether he appeals more to this side or to this side in order to get the totality of the votes that he think is possible second he was under a
little bit of a time constraint because some of these states need the VP candidate named and he's under a shock clock that the other two are not so I mean I I wish Bobby the best because I think some combination of Bobby doing well and some upheaval between the Democrats and the Republicans is really the only chance we have of having a
credible third party well let's see now what happens by the way we should just say like you know Joe Liber been passed away which is really unfortunate you know he was a really independent thinker as well let's see what no labels really does here there's a little bit of chaos over at No Labels I think but so there's
a lot of moving parts so it was clearly calculous I don't totally understand what that formula was though just to build something jamas said there's a report by Colin rug that the DNC realizes what jamas said about this covering Bobby's Left Flank rather than his right flank and apparently they're
in somewhat of a panic about this and I think what you're going to see is that lawyers from the DNC and the Biden campaign are going to fight tooth and nail to keep this ticket off the ballot at least in the major contested States like the five or six states where the presidency will be decided in 2024 and of course they'll be saying
they're doing this to save democracy but you're going to see I think a full court press by DNC lawyers to keep the Kennedy Shanahan ticket off the ballot yeah this seems really like it's going to damage Biden which was my original prediction and that a reason why a lot of the right-wing were supporting RFK was
because they wanted they saw this as a clear path to take away a couple points from Biden I think first part first part of what you said is 100% right I'm not sure that a bunch of Republicans are going to get organized jcal to vote for RFK in that way oh no I don't think they're going to do that I think they
supported him publicly in order to build him up as a Centrist candidate knowing that it would take away from Biden so I just think on a strategic political basis all these Republicans do that for for Maryann Williamson why notable yeah no no it's because she's not electable I mean she's Crystal and not like a viable candidate it's it's
pretty clear she's not viable why can't you just accept that people on the right like the issues that Bobby spoke to isn't that because I think that they're partisans and they just want to win so I don't think it has anything to do with what you're saying which would be like authentically liking and connecting with
what he's saying I don't think it was that I think it's a strategic plan to try to pull Biden votes and I think Republicans are a plant you think he's a plant I think their support for him is for nefarious reasons they're supporting him to take votes away from Biden and here it is we're all agreeing that this
is going to take votes away from Biden so I think it's a very clever strategy on the GOP hold on I just just to add one point to that remember that when Bobby entered the race he did so as a Democrat he did so challenging Joe Biden for the nomination of the democratic party how did the Democratic party react they kept him off the ballot they
wouldn't give him a fair shot that's why he went independent so he did not have to be this you know sort of like what you're kind of implying like a fly in the ointment type Third Party candidate he tried to be the Democratic candidate they wouldn't let him compete if they had let him compete in a fair way maybe
he would have stayed a Democrat I would have loved to have a massive competitive field of Democrats I think the Democrats are screwing this up big time I think this could be the mo this could I think they could peel off a couple of percentage points yeah in those more you're right I think it's more than that
so I mean I think it's more than that so we all agree that's what's happening here then we're just disagreeing notics we agree it's taking points away yeah I think we agree about that but what I'm saying is that this is where We've Ended up I don't think it was constructed to be this way ah interesting freeberg your thoughts on
this candidate specifically around her love of organic food and wanting to take on the pesticides toxic food you know and the and the industrial food cont I remain steadfast in my commitment to there being only one major issue facing this country and that is the federal debt and the deficit we are
increasing the federal debt by a trillion dollar every hundred days that number is not slowing down the current budget proposal from the Biden Administration calls for over $7.2 trillion to be spent next year that makes the US federal government roughly onethird of our country's GDP the outrageousness of the condition that the
US is in right now makes it so insane to me that we are talking about any other topic like big agriculture or whatever other nonsense was being spattered about as important topics to this particular person if every voting citizen of the United States does not recognize the severity of the deficit and debt problem
that the federal government faces you are wasting your vote and no candidate is speaking to what is clearly the biggest issue of our time and we need to address this issue head long so I don't care about this person or anyone else who's running for office that is talking about stuff that we cannot actually address and problems we cannot actually
solve if we don't get our fiscal Affairs in order that's my point of view got it and uh respect for that can anybody win the presidency on a hey we're going to balance the budget we're going to cut spending platform nope so they can't win and it's an existential is that's why I look I mean I I'll keep
shouting into the abyss hope that a few people hear it and that at some point it becomes a topic that folks do begin to focus on I I think that the ne necessity of raising tax rates the necessity ultimately of cutting entitlement programs the necessary inflation that will arise because of the condition of the federal government's debt level
because we're going to have to keep printing money these are the sorts of things that are like a Boiling Pot that one day folks will wake up and say well what the heck happened everything got mismanaged and it's not a Democrat problem it's not a republican problem it's a it's a fundamental problem of people voting
themselves all the money and people getting voted into office by saying I'm going to do more than it's being done today and that costs money and no one actually addresses the rampant misuse of funds the lack of accountability in spending and the fact that we have an incredible amount of negative Roi spending and the fact that we've
effectively created an economy that's fundamentally dependent on federal spending and I'll go through some statistics when we talk about Biden's budget later in the show but I think that the significance is just overlooked by all of these candidates and we're not really talking about the thing that matters so
all right so let's break down Biden's proposed budget of 2025 proposed budget was 7.3 trillion for fiscal 2025 that starts in October of 2024 it's up 18% from 2023 projected deficit 1.78 trillion which is similar to the deficits we ran in 23 and 24 the budget projects an average deficit of 1.6 trillion per year over the next
decade national debt as uh freeberg was alluding to is insane it's at 34.5 trillion but we made some charts here to go through all of this let's pull up the first chart and this is comparing Biden's proposed budget in 2025 with budgets from 2005 and 2015 defense spending has actually grown pretty modestly during that time but
entitlements interest payments and non-defense spending have jumped significantly us will owe 965 billion in interest on its debt next year that's 65 billion more than the pros defense budget and in 2026 the US will surpass 1 trillion on interest owed on its debt and we'll talk about that more in a
minute but let's start here with this first chart anything jump out to you Cham here that's notable and worth discussing all the areas that we need to cut we can't even have a conversation about so they'll never get cut and they'll keep growing so I think that we probably need to figure out what the alternatives are
so if you can't have a conversation about expenses the only logical place is to have a conversation about revenues and what that means for the government is in taxation and so I don't know Jason what we do here there could be a couple of saving Graces so there are some things happening for example on the Medicare
side that could be profoundly disruptive they are now I'm not again I'm just going to put this out there as it's happening I don't know if it's good or bad but they are looking at reimbursing things like wovi and OIC and not if you look at the underlying cost of those kinds of chronic diseases diabetes heart disease
Etc and you put a large swath of the American population on those drugs the reimbursement value of those drugs versus the cost of actually The Chronic Care Management would save you many hundreds of billions of dollars a year so that's something second is on the defense side there's a large portion of that budget that's migrating away from
traditional tactical Warfare to things that are unman vehicles and cyber and whatnot that could save or300 billion do there so there are places where you could save 500 billion to a trillion dollars but I think it's going to be a almost impossible conversation and it'll happen by accident so then the only
forced conversation that I think we are going to have as a society is around Taxation and that's really bad for you know a lot of people that don't believe that's the path to generating growth one of the challenges is that there are and and we should reference these in the show notes Nick but there are well researched economic studies
that show that when a government tries to increase the taxation level north of 20% of GDP of that economy that you actually see GDP growth go negative that EV there's a certain natural equilibrium on which you can tax the system beyond that level investment dollars go down and growth begins to shrink and that's
what triggers the spiraling problem because then the government spending needs to go up to continue to grow and support growth in the economy and it creates this inevitable totally spiraling would you call this the Atlas Shrug the Atlas Shrug effect is investment goes down there's a Fred chart yeah showing percent of GDP that's
federal tax receipts and then percent of GDP that's spending exactly and and then the Gap is your deficit okay and freeberg is right that I think in the absolute best economy best years of the best economy so it's like you know the best year of the Reagan boom and the best year of the Clinton boom when we
had the government surplus I think the government was extracting just shy of 20% of GDP and in the 70s when marginal tax rates were at 70% so before the ran tax cuts we were actually extra extracting a lower percentage of GDP so there's only so much blood you can get from a stone if you raise tax rates on a marginal
basis high enough the econom performs worse and you actually end up collecting less or people spend a lot more money on lawyers and accountants to basically figure out more structuring schemes to avoid paying taxes so the years in which we've got the highest percentage of Revenue out of the economy are in good
economic years where we've had reasonable levels of Taxation as opposed to the highest levels of Taxation and so the problem is with the spending I mean we used to be able to keep spending to somewhere between I'd say in the best years of of the years of the Clinton Surplus I think spending as a percent of GDP was like 18.8% it's around
20% of GDP goes to federal spending that's that was normal but then the spending got out of control during covid and it went up to like 25 30% of GDP went to federal spending it's starting to come down but it's still way too big a number anyway my my point is that a starting point for dealing with next
year's budget is free spending just free spending you know the 18% increase is not a good idea if we want to get this problem under control freeze the spending we can talk about taxation but you're only going to get so much blood from a stone an increased spending is stimulatory and so it works well in an election year I would say we took two
major crises and we had crisis level spending and then we normalized that spending and allowed it to carry forward starting with the 08 financial crisis with our monetary policy and then being accelerated with covid and and our fiscal policy I'll give you guys I I did some back of the envelope math I'm sure
there are economists who have done a better job of this than I there are directly three million Americans that are directly employed by the federal government there's 167 million workers in the US so 3 million are directly employed by the federal government if you take the rest of the federal spending that flows into the economy
it's about 3 and a half trillion a year and assume 30% of that Capital goes to equity holders and businesses that own businesses that benefit from that spending and the rest flows through to labor that's about 133% of GDP flowing through to labor and assuming average annual income that's another roughly 45
50 million people that are directly benefiting that are directly earning income because of federal spending there's another 50 million people in the US that rely on Social Security and here's another important statistic there's somewhere between 12 and 20 million people in the US that pay more than 50% tax rate today so those people are
effectively working for the federal government because half of their their income goes back to the government so when you add this all up there's there's over 100 120 million people in the US that are directly working for or getting paid by the federal government in the US that is such a significant percentage of
our economy that is such a significant dependency on individual income on a federal government it I I don't want to use the term socialism but the the ability for us labor to earn is so largely dependent and largely driven by federal spending at this point it becomes this critical Lynch pin to enabling
progression economically to enabling the labor force to continue to participate that the federal government is now the primary customer or employer of most of the labor force in the United States today that is a deeply and profoundly different circumstance than what I think the founding fathers envisioned when the federal government
was supposed to be this lightweight overseeing organization of a Federated Republic of states and unfortunately I think we find ourselves in a condition as Jamal points out that's very hard to get out of this is going to require a dedicated multi-decade effort to create a slow unwinding from this deep dependency that
our labor force has on federal spending and I I'm just like so shocked that this isn't the the critical problem of our day that we're not all spending time on folks have pointed out that this only goes one way at this point hey Nick can you bring up that first Fred chart this is federal receipts as percent of GDP
and it goes all the way back to World War II to free Berg's Point we've never gone above 20% look at that and we've had tax rates as high as 90% I'm saying top marginal tax rates as high as 90% I think after World War II because we're trying to get out of the deficit that was created by the war spent
you can't get above 20 yeah exactly the economy shrinks no but hold on the the I I gave you this oecd report it says that since 2000 we've been in the mid 20s and the oecd average is 34 in terms of tax to GDP tax to GDP is this this includes state and local then right probably yeah yeah I just showed
Federal I think this probably includes state and local by the way is a whole another BWI because I didn't include those numbers in my employment statistics the US Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that about 20.2 million Americans are employed by local and state governments directly employed by local and state governments so again
when you add this all up the majority of the US Labor Force is employed by the government or is a beneficiary of the government as the primary customer or is supported by government entitlement programs if you go back to that Fred chart for a second I mean if you if you basically ack knowledge the point that
20% is the ceiling on how much we can extract from an Economy based on 80 years of data okay with all sorts of differing tax schemes then I think what we should say is that federal spending will be capped at 20% of GDP we should you see what I'm saying like if we can't go above 20% on receipts cap cap federal spending should be a constitutional
amendment right that's it and then and then on the revenue side we should say what is the best tax code to achieve that 18 19 20% because what we do right now is we just say well just tax the rich but what we've seen is we've been taxing the rich as high as 90% in the past and you didn't get more Revenue so
we should be much more scientific about saying well given that our Target is let's say 20% what's the best way to do that and no one really has that conversation no none of the conversations have to do with data or building a a bulletproof system the same thing we could say about immigration where we try to talk about the numbers
here of what's a reasonable number of people and tying that to an actual number um and it's pretty obvious we should have one immigration policy when we have 5% unemployment and a different one if we had God forbid 15 or 20% unemployment can we just say TI to the unemployment rate the fundamental structural problem I'm highlighting is
that we've created an economy that is so deeply dependent on federal spending that the federal spending levels are what support so many employed and so many companies in the US you're answering your own question that's why I can't stop right I don't think the real economy that creates all the Innovation
and all the value and all the the the good paying jobs I think that is separate from what theary economy that's the that's the true market-based deflationary economy the problem is once we've layered in all of these layers of dependency from federal dollars flowing into businesses or into people's pockets it's very difficult to back out of that
I don't call that dependency I call that special interests I think there's a lot of special interests who are basically looting the federal government and taking all this money and then they turn around and use some of it to to donate back to the politicians and Lobby for more spending so what you're calling
dependency is really more special interest meaning that I don't think we need to have this level of spending in order to have a successful economy I think it makes our economy less successful yeah it's still stimulatory because saaks remember Mitch McConnell when they were talking about supporting
Ukraine his primary argument as you remember was that all of these dollars are going to go into defense contractor's Pockets which is going to go to employees Pockets which is going to stimulate our economy that's the fundamental thinking value that know but that's the thinking behind it right I mean that's the political system that
okay let me just walk through this real quick if the government prints a bunch of money and it to people as steich X we all understand that creates no economic value it just creates inflation okay now if the government does the same thing but instead of a stimy check pays people to dig holes and fill them back up
that's the exact same thing no economic value just inflation now let's say the government pays people to create bombs that create holes in other countries exact same thing no economic value for the country it just creates inflation here why is that because the only thing that creates economic value in the
United States is the production of goods and services that people can actually consume and use and that they want and so federal spending on basically make work projects or things that people don't really want or they don't use or even worse bombs that get dropped on poor people in other countries none of that creates any value but I don't think
it's a real economic dependency I think it is just a special interest that keeps lobbying for all this stuff what about housing and Healthcare and education because those are the three biggest line items and it's been inflationary across all three of those line items in the US economy the federal government has
stepped in to provide broader access to housing broader access to healthcare and broader access to education and in the process that's why the price goes up yeah you know there's that famous chart showing inflation by category and all the categories where the federal government provides subsidies the prices
have gone up and all the healthare and housing and the more the government tries to subsidize it the more the providers realize a second we can charge whatever we want because the government pay One customer and they'll always pay one customer that's got to be completely reformed yeah here's a chart of all
employees in government and I think this Fred chart includes all employees in government which would include state and local and as you can see where yeah that's right it's 20 million local in state three million Federal and then the math I was highlighting was just my back of the envelope math where there's 50
million people that are on Social Security in the US plus if you do the math on how government spending flows into employers into employees pockets it's about another 45 50 million people that benefit from federal spending in the US we're already kind of at a point of maximal dependency if you will yeah I mean if you look at this chart we have
had 20,000 people working in government since the late 90s 20 million since the late 90s it's it's now hitting a peak and the question is you know how far up does it from here it's 23 obviously the country is growing as well each year so as a percentage we don't have the percentage but as a percentage of Americans it hasn't grown that
dramatically but it certainly feels like this could keep going in the wrong direction the one thing to keep in mind from all the Dooms daying I would just offer you two data points the first is that our debt to GDP either historically but also in relation to other countries R is still relatively reasonable and what that
basically shows is we have a lot more debt that we can issue which means that there's a lot more deficits to run not saying that it's right yeah before the great financial crisis it was running at 50 60% our debt as a percentage of GDP and to your point jamath it's now at 1.2 it's 120% other countries have much higher so
we have a lot more to run yeah so Nick if you want to just throw that up and so it means that the countries on the right haven't failed they haven't done great necessarily but they haven't failed in the way that we would Define failure and it's not as if the countries on the left are crushing it the way that we would
Define crushing it and so it's not clear that there's a real correlation between debt to GDP and the performance over large longitudinal periods of times as a country that's the first thing I'll say the second thing is if you actually look at all of these countries the thing to keep in mind is where are populations
growing and shrinking because at a very basic level jcal you you mentioned this earlier but when countries are shrinking there's no fundamental ability to grow GDP and you're just debating how much it shrinks and the interesting thing about the United States is we are the only Western country that is forecasted
to grow at reasonable rates above our replacement population and so you know by the end of this Century we'll be around 400 400 odd million individuals and other countries will have been cut in half and so again there's some positive news as well now to your earlier point the problem is politicians will use this as a reason to continue
spending because they won't be forced to and that's not a great thing but this is probably why the status quo would go on for a very long time so grab the bag get your bag figure figure out what you're figure out what your thing is I don't know man I just want people like voters to they're not going to get your bag like
everybody else problem we have is if okay Nick can you pull the the Fred spending chart we've talked about this a few times well okay so if you look there there's a huge Spike because of covid because of all that covid stimulus that was air drop in the economy I think we're now down to about 22% for 2023 MH
but that that's a big number you know we talked about how the absolute Max you can extract is 20% so what they should do is just freeze spending until the federal net outlays as a percent of GDP is down to 20% that would be the the simplest thing such an easy solution what's great about it is it takes out the politicians making this
partisan hey there is a logical amount of you know taxation we can do before we freeze up the productivity of the country which if you talk to anybody when taxes get high people just start getting protecting their wealth I think you alluded to to that with strategies as opposed to investing the hard part of
it is that I mean look I think we should do it you know 20% cap and and free spending till we get there the the hard part is that our interest expense keeps growing because as our debt rolls onto more expensive higher interest bonds then our interest expense is increasing just a few years ago our interest expense was
only 300 billion a year now it's over a trillion a year and that's just going to keep growing and growing and then the other thing that's going to grow is all the entitlements related to to demographics so the country's demographics are getting worse and so the entitlement expenses are going to go up so even holding it to 20% if we could
get there is going to take some work L I don't know if you read Larry Fink's letter from Black Rock it was really good and you talked about you mean his 2030 business plan JL basically yeah it's his way of extracting value from it but he did make some sing points in it as opposed to just him talking his book
of why should do is retire your retirement savings with black rock is a fair point but just getting the what age do people retire at that discussion we need to have and we we're not having that as a country and then what percentage of benefits do people get at different how do we incentivize people to stay in the workforce well at a
minimum don't you agree we should just allow people to opt out of Social Security and in a simple way of saying I don't need it and I'll take care of myself use these proceeds for somebody else that could use it that who has better need for absolutely yeah I mean and then getting people to participate
in their 401ks you know at an earlier age and defaulting those to on as of defaulting them to off there's a lot of small behavioral things we could do in this country to get people saving earlier wow I uh I saw that Robin Hood was running a scheme where if you moved your raw thyra they gave you 3% cash
back and I thought is there an upper bound limit on what on how much you could move over CU I wonder if I could you have to keep your money in there for five years yeah but that's okay I'm just wondering like will they really write like a100 million check if you move Robin Hood just sent me something so we had a portfolio company called X1
which was making a new like credit card and credit card app it was like awesome I don't know if you guys used it anyway they got acquired by Robin Hood and so the guys here just sent me their new Robin Hood gold card card yeah this thing is the heaviest card here just listen to drop hold on let me tell my mic don't cut yourself don't cut your
toe off apparently it's got $1,100 worth the gold in it I have one coming myself and i' I'm proud to say I've sold no shares of my Robin Hood I keep all my Robin Hood shares if my if I move my Roth iral they'll have to give me the whole building you give you a goal plated building actually they they sent it to
me in a uh Louis Vuitton with a Louis Vuitton wallet this is like unbelievable yes it's got and look they got A50 got a $50,000 ad on the you got like a little LV wallet there oh I like it there you have it folks send a Louis Vuitton wall get a free $50,000 ad on the Pod sign up now for your Robin Hood
gold yeah but what is it a credit card yeah it's a credit card it's a credit card yeah their their their whole plan was always to provide the full Suite of services do you guys carry credit cards and money do you have any money forting my wallet but I always carry money you have money I yeah like to tip tip people or something
always have some cashish never you always got to have a cup of hyy just in case it's a really bad habit you got to keep a couple of hyy in the bag you put the 100 on the outside J count there's a bunch of ones no we don't do that you get caught doing that in Brooklyn you get your ass got the Bol on the outside no no no no
you could what we do is we get rid of the ones the fives and the tens you just get rid of those you don't even keep them in circulation that's that's the best line um I get cash when I go to Vegas but that's the best line ever was this woman comes up to Sammy Davis Jr and she says hey uh C can you um can you
can you break uh you know this whatever amount of money and he just pulls out aund and gives her a 100 and she says no no can can you make change he says that is change baby that is change that's what he considered change was the Hy there was a story out of juu so you know Triton poker yes okay I'm not going to
say who it is but there was a guy that was playing the high stakes cash game and apparently so he lost like 8 million bucks okay he tipped out 450k in 25K chips to like the staff and like the person giving him a massage and stuff so it apparently became a free-for-all trying to get into this game where everybody was like are we pulling tips
are we pulling tips and they were like no we're not the leag tips just Flags he was tipping off Flags wow that is incredibly incredibly generous all right science Corner rapid fire you wanted to get to Coco here we are we're at CoCo freeberg you have the you guys you guys asked about Coco you want to pull up the
commodity price chart on Coco look at that okay this is not cocaine this is cocoa this is chocolate precursor to Chocolate not COC this is chocolate as you guys can see from this chart Coco's moved in price from about 2,000 a ton which is where it normally trades at to $10,000 a ton 70% of Coco is grown in
West Africa in Ghana and Ivory Coast and in that area they've been severely hit by this ELO weather year that we're just kind of coming out of so here's all the cocoa production 73% of it's in Africa mostly in Ghana and Ivory Coast that's where most of the world's cocoa beans are produced cocoa is grown from the
cacao tree which is about 10 ft tall these bean pods you take them down you roast the beans crush it you make cocoa when you eat a Hershey's bar for example 11% of that bar is ground up cocoa powder so cocoa is like the critical ingredient all the chocolate products we consume so we had this massive El Nino event last
year so here you can see sea surface temperatures so in Q4 of last year El Nino spiked like crazy and that caused a lot of rainfall to hit the west coast of Africa and as a result this fungus was spread in cocoa trees there's a fungus called blackp disease and this fungus spreads when rainfall hits the ground
and it splashes up gets in the tree and then the tree has really bad yield and the Coco production goes down so now if you look at the Coco production out of Ghana you can see that we've seen a like 50% rough decline in Coco production on the final bar chart so that's the effect so when that happened basically everyone started to Corner the
market so all the buyers of Coco went in and started buying Coco like crazy and then all the short sellers got squeezed because there's typically a pretty good balance on the short and long side in the market so the short sellers got squeezed and it caused this big parabolic jump in price and that's
where we're at today the chocolate companies again 11% of chocolate that you're buying at the store is made from this cocoa powder uh they're talking about cutting the size of their chocolate bars raising prices and starting to use other ingredients so you'll start to see that happen in the shelves in the next couple of months but
this is the big news in the commodity markets right now is this this parabolic spike in Coco prices and you know consumers will get hit with high prices and smaller chocolate bars isn't there a scene in trading places the OJ Futures orange yeah orange Futures that's right they squeeze the orange market that's right
that's basically what's happening Coco so there was a bad weather event yields dropped by 50% so we got half the production and then all the Traders came in and they squeezed the short side of the market and price spiked so that's kind of what's gone on if I had a dollar for the the number of times a fungus has ruined a good time
man well you know it's interesting I was looking at this and I was worried about chocolate prices here it comes I was I was really worried about chocolate prices specifically I'm I'm on Amazon right now and these edible anuses Uranus prices have gone up somehow so these chocolate Uranus pric are sky find how did you find that I just typed
in Uranus I Ted you freeberg Uranus and chocolate and this came up it was the number one result there it is Uranus chocolate prices are going up I know what I'm getting you guys for Christmas this year well it's you notice it was priced in euros not dollars yeah it's not available in America it's it was coming
from Belgium I guess they got some serious Kink going on over there yes if you want a chocolate Uranus it's it's there for you I mean I just was like Google SE search chocolate Uranus and yeah I don't recommend you make that search if you're listening to the Pod well when I when I heard there
was a spike and Coke prices it made me think of [Laughter] this say hello to my little friend I went the last time when's the last time you watched Scarface beginning to end not like just caught aou I watched it yeah it holds up yeah yeah I mean man is by the way I saw Dune 2 jamat have you seen it no no don't say anything because
I need to wait till it comes to streaming okay I loved it I'm going back to see it I'm going back to see it again I'm going to see it at IMX so you're with me I didn't hate it I just think it's overrated like Spielberg said it was like one of the greatest moments of his life one of the greatest movies I've
ever seen I thought no it's completely overrated I'm not saying it's bad it's just not that scale of one to 10 give it a number I will do anything to have this guy do D3 he's talking about whether or not he should do it he like I'm only going to do it if it's going to be better than Dune 2 you know he's Canadian guy yeah he did sakario
sakario and the arrival like he's honestly one of the top three directors of our no den v v i don't know that the hero in that movie is like this soy boy type I mean I don't really believe that he's leading an army it's not credible you know the story I I read a lot about you know these were all like short stories
published in magazines by Frank Herbert calized they were calized and he was really into drugs he was really into mushrooms and so the spice came around from the mushrooms makes sense it was written in the 1965 when there was this idea that we needed to move toward zero population growth because the population
Spike on Earth was going to cause resource uh constraints and we were all going to die if you guys remember this and so there was this big movement uh it's what launched the hippie movement did they not have math back in 1965 yeah they they really did think this and that there wasn't going to be improvements in
productivity so there were limited resources the world was going to run out of land and the ecology or the environmentalist movement kind of sprung out of this effort so a lot of what he wrote about was the ecology and the connection between the fungus and taking mushrooms and better understanding the world around you so so much of this was
rooted in a hippie movement sack to your point when he wrote These original they expl what spice is in Dune no and it was tied explain why when he was intervie when Frank Herbert was interviewed later he talked about how it was meant to be about a fungus is this the greater of life and this greater of life and he
wanted spice to be representative of mushrooms of fungus zocon got it and it was like it opens your mind and you get more connected with nature and all this stuff so it was rooted in that but they never really get into details on it in the book so this film to you freedberg is a 10 out of 10 out of 10 okay I was
about to I was gonna give it an eight and a half out of 10 I I think the first half was slower I'd say like the second I mean there like jam I'm not ruining anything I really like Zena I think she's super cool I agree with you socks I'm not a huge Timo shalam fan I think he's too skinny is it his name is it the name or
is it the no I grew up in Canada with a lot of French people so I'm cool with that I don't like he's just too skinny like do a couple push-ups or something it's the Vibes general what do you give it sax and um yeah i' give it an eight and a half I won't give it a nine I'll give it eight and half what do you give it saak
give it a number I'll give it a six and a half six and a half now if it had a proper lead who is more than 120 pounds who a good yeah who's a good lead for you SX where you would have given it a nine exactly the same everything is the same without a soy boy oh Jake Gyllenhaal is it is that is that more of
a SX night like Ultimate Fighting body Jake Gyllenhaal he's guys I mean who Tom Cruz Ryan goling ran what movie is a 10 out of 10 for you I don't know you like a young Russell Crow or something right don't you but have you seen the original Dune that guy if you think that this guy oh my God a David Lynch movie yeah David Lynch movie
good actually yeah it was a little I mean it was similarly it was like a soft protagonist what is is movie yeah what's a 10 out of 10 for you s Gladiator Good Fellas Casino sakario Casino is incredible sario is incredible all those are good all those are good tast I might give this a seven I may I
got to see it again May I'll revise it up to a seven but it's not more than a seven in my book isn't there like a sakario 3 coming out I hope so sakario one and two are so rewatchable ultimately rewatchable sario 1 was unbelievable unbelievable sario 2 does it for me at the where you hear theise of like what are those
Locs oh my god when they're in traffic and the cars are parked yeah yeah that scene is like to me as like the Bane scene in Dark Knight yeah and and also when he's at the dinner table of the drug lord yeah oh God that is intense I think that film has probably the best Cadence of any modern film like the the
way he kept pacing that film did not turn off for one second you were hooked from beginning to end and you could watch million like Godfather was also like that the pacing in Dune 2 is terrible I mean he spends all this time in the wilderness and then the oh you haven't seen it yet then why are we talking about for to come to stre we had this
whole conversation last time does anyone else think that the arrival is like one of the best films of Our Generation no I mean it's good but it's not I think it's good like such a a mind-blowing film oh SX you know maybe maybe like a a young buff Matt Damon no uh M Dam I don't really see him in the RO uh okay how about um what's that
guy's name Adam Driver yeah Young Adam Driver oh yeah Adam Driver would work he could do it he could do it he that's kind of like a Kyle mclin type pick you know he's a little exact little yeah yeah but not so skinny yeah I mean the idea that he's going to win all these fights and he weighs 120 lbs wet out of the showers
makes no sense like kick his ass Zena does doesn't she kick his ass basically yeah I mean let's not give it up here no that scene with best opening scene of a film what do you got sax what's your best most intense scene of of any film any opening scene most intense I mean the Joker bank heist scene is incredible that's good Danel Le
in the shaft of There Will Be Blood absolutely climbing out of there with the broken leg oh my God that sets the tone that's who he is as a person that's everything that's that's your spirit animal that's it it you're bitter and angry and you have a you have a competition have a competition in me I
don't like to see others succeed I'm David fredberg I'd like to see the world burn strike strike actually it's true it's accurate really accurate it's your favorite movie reason yeah you admitted Own It own it just own it I drink your milkshake keep the lie alive I do have a competition in me yeah it's funny the
only like opening scene of a movie that I really remember is like Reservoir Dogs you know when you talk about like an opening scene that's memorable Pulp Fiction well no what what was the opening oh the open scene pul fiction is pretty good too where the robbing the diner yeah the diner it's like you're you're hooked on the
dialogue right at the beginning yeah yeah probably some Tarantino movie there was nothing like that right when that came out you're like what is this and then you're just like actually the opening scene of Good Fellas is really good where the guy's kicking the trunk from the inside they think he's dead yeah
yeah Saving Private Ryan also I'd say he pretty great Jam if you want to go see it at IMAX you got put heat in that on that list jaob heat amazing yeah I mean heat is definitely top 10 they're coming out with heat too by the way they wrote a book and then it's coming out I can't wait for heat too and Gladiator to where
where do you go to see the IMAX oh they have a good one in the stud in San Francisco the Metreon is a 70 M ginormous it's and they're doing the full print at that theater of Dune 2 so it's like the ACT he shot the thing in 70 mm IMAX I expensive like absurdly expensive absurdly he spent like $190
million on this film it's fantastic everybody go see dude to Zach what what films do you have coming out anything interesting you producing anything what's in the production line you bought the rights right to something we released Dolly land earlier this year with Ben Kingsley playing Dolly yeah and actually Elon just posted a long
reminiscence about how we made Thank You for Smoking which was kind of cool did you guys see that nice no I didn't see it he tweeted it or someone TW TW did like hey did you know that like Elon mus and Peter teal and Max Lin and David sax produced this movie Thank You for Smoking because it's been like almost 20
years and so I remember people don't know about it so anyway that someone tweeted it and Elon responded there's like a really crazy story behind it and they were like oh tell us and he wrote up a long tweet explaining how he got the rights and his memory was actually really good I was like impressed that he remembered all these details from 20
years ago yeah I tweeted back like look if if Jason wrightman's up for the sequel let's do it Ryan's doing pretty good he's doing okay all right everybody for the Rainman David Sachs chth poly ho the chairman dictator the Sultan of science I'm the world's greatest moderator blah blah blah and we'll see you oh and by the way if you're
listening to this go ahead and check out Allin podcast on YouTube and subscribe when we hit a million subscribers which we're well on our way to halfway there I think we're going to throw a million Subs subscriber party and so yeah subscribe and you might get an invite and we're going to try to have as many
people at the million subscriber party as possible when we hit I think 600,000 we're going to do a live Q&A on the channel so really cool Milestones coming up for the Pod and we'll see you all next time bye-bye bye-bye love you boys let your winners ride Rainman David and instead we open source it to
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