I found out about a freeberg purchase that it's just you were there Jamal you heard what he bought what did I buy pickles the quino what what was it no no sax you missed this because you're you are a Sunbird now and the rest of us are snowbirds over the holidays but the three of us have been hanging out skiing
having dinner for a couple of weeks and we had a little wives dinner and one of the wives was complaining about oh the suits R suits oh my God so free do you have pictures of the radiation suits I don't have pictures of the radiation Su I'm trying to find what radiation suits I thought you were going to talk about like Bion suits or
something radiation suits you know how you went into full scale panic mode and you during Co and you had your whole outfit your your hazmat suit fredberg just because he's panicked about nuclear proliferation has bought suits for his entire family thousands of dollars of radiation suits and nuclear fallout and he bought one
for his dog dogs dogs dogs dogs sorry dogs from Monty and Daisy I should send you guys the photo of the dog a bunker I mean I've got it all taken care of you need a bunker first right I think that's underway as well how do you get to your bunker freeberg with with the pilots that you'll be asking to leave their families or will you be protecting them
with the guns that were stolen from your house at least you'll have the thousands of pickles you've made and the pounds of I didn't know freedberg was a prepper did you know this sax saak has a little prepper saak freeberg was howling because he was so mad he made like thousands and thousands of pickles and nobody would eat them
including himself they were so terrible you literally bought a radiation pod for your dogs yeah so they that's their air filter on the right so that they don't breathe in the nuclear fallout collap I kind of like the the prepping thank you sir yeah it's good you guys don't understand there's a reason Evolution happens in moments of what we call
punctuated equilibrium there's a massive event and certain you know things survive and then that becomes the proliferant species going forward this is the moment be ready so you're saying paranoid rich white guys are going to survive the nuclear Holocaust is what you're saying paranoid rich white Tech guys are going to make it to the other
side got it how exciting ex what a great future what a future like we'd rather die that touches myogenous Jones just the idea of it when saaks and freeberg are the only two reproducing males left delicious can you imagine the the Jean Pool it's like literally this is like some dystopian science fiction this is like a Black
Mirror episode you'll have the pastiest Preppers in the world pasty Preppers to inherit the Earth let your winners ride Rainman David and instead we open sources to the fans and they've just gone [Music] crazy welcome back to the program everybody it is the new year but it's the same Squad your four besties are
here chth poop Patia he is now not just the dictator he is Chairman dictator calling in from the slopes with his beautiful Bert sweater that's a great sweater that's a major turtleneck going on there and we have David Friedberg also uh looks like he's on the slopes and he is wearing his ohal his ohal not Mahalo ohal hat he is branding here on
the Allin podcast sneaking in a little branding for his new startup that he is the CEO of David Sachs is with us of course and he cleaned up he cleaned up a little bit here the hair was getting out of control we had a lot of commentary on the hair apparently you cleaned up shop I pivoted from the the Jefferson to the
gecko all right so everybody loves when we do our predictions and so we're going to start off 2024 big year for us we got a lot going on here at Allin and we're going to just do some predictions here so let's get started we're going to kick it off with Sachs doing his prediction for the biggest political winner in 2024 saak who do you have what's your
prediction for who's going to be the biggest winner in 2024 we're bracing yeah well you're going to love this J Cal but my my prediction for biggest political winner in 2024 is Vladimir Putin 2023 last year was the year that Putin turned it all around he stabilized his economy after the West attempt to sanction him to his knees tried to
collapse his economy we issued basically an arrest warrant from the international criminal court he has gained the upperhand militarily in Ukraine I think that 2024 will be a year of him consolidating gains in Ukraine potentially making new gains I think that the the stalemate narrative that our media has propagated about
Ukraine will be exposed as a lie I think the Russians are in fact winning that War and what you're seeing is that his successful stance against the West in Ukraine has only made him more influential throughout the global South and in the brics countries countries that oppose American dominance and dollar hemony see him as the man with a plan as as a bit of a
Conquering Hero and I think as project Ukraine falls apart in 2024 it's only going to reinforce that sense that he's the big winner sex did you see that Argentina said they're not going to join bricks and that some have said that was a bit of a blowback on the bricks effort to end dollar hegemony and do you think it's really impactful or is
it just a one-off I think it's a one-off I mean melee won in a big surprise there because the country's economy has been such a basket case and he is very pro-american pro-israel Pro West and so he has distance Argentina from from bricks but I think that's a little bit of a oneof the larger issue is that the whole Global South Now is
really resisting the collective West in a number of different ways and so our influence and dominance is slowly declining across the world and there's many examples of that so we can get into it throughout the show just to be clear with the audience you're not rooting for Putin here you're just predicting he's the biggest winner I'm not rooting for
it to happen I I've got other answers here that I think are negatives as well I wish we had made a peace deal and avoided this whole Ukraine war I think that was a gigantic Mistake by the West so yeah you've been clear about that yeah we have put Putin in this position to be the Victor because we plunged into a war without
thinking it through and the truth is we can't give Ukraine enough Aid to have them actually win this war so we've contributed massively to Putin being this Victor and you know it was Fiona Hill who is a Russia hawk in the foreign policy establishment who pointed out in a speech I think over the past year that the global South is is using this
Ukraine war as a proxy to rebel against the West so in the same way that we're using Ukraine as a proxy against Russia she said the global South was using Russia as a proxy against the West as a way to basically Dethrone American Hemy all over the world and that that's a very negative Trend so if you had Ukraine and Putin in
under seven minutes for this episode if you bet the under you win freeberg who's your prediction for the biggest political winner in politics for 20 24 I'm going to go with independent third party in the US we saw the stats last week I think we reviewed them with a poll that showed that 60 plus% of people are claiming interest in a third party
or an independent effort outside of the traditional Dam Republican split and if you look at in 1992 Ross perau got 18 to 19% of the general election vote RFK Jr is obviously running on an independent ticket this year we'll see if he even get on the ballot in a bunch of States but I think that whether it's him or the interest in
developing a third party uh in the US that there may be a big winner this year that challenges the the traditional two-party split in this country all right and chamath who do you got for your biggest political winner in independent centrists I think this election starts the breakdown of the two- party system same same look at that
RFK this week actually just got added to the Utah ballot I think that this could be the most meaningful longlasting change that we see in American politics is this is from from the RFK candidacy I mean how many people do you guys know that were Republicans that don't want to be Republicans anymore or were Democrats
and don't want to be Democrats anymore it's really like most so many people I know more of the latter I know more of the latter actually than I do yeah that's true too yeah that's what I would say I think I think Republicans are still firmly established I think people are embarrassed to be a Democrat right now interestingly I also picked the
Darkhorse president IAL candidate who will beat treasonous and corrupt AKA Trump and Biden I think we're going to actually see some Darkhorse candidate maybe beat these two in the rematch that nobody wanted wow that's crazy three of the four of us picked the same thing no coordination beforehand yes and this is done blind folks and and Nick has my
notes here so he can he can uh vouch for me here and just to go back and look at 2023 what we predicted Sachs you said Asian-American College applicants were going to be your biggest winner in politics that actually turned out to be pretty preent right yeah I mean I was betting on court cases overruling affirmative action and that's exactly
what happened is that Supreme Court ruled against affirmative action in college admissions saying that it unlawfully discriminated against asian-americans so yeah that worked out exactly right so that's a great prediction I think chamat you had perhaps the best prediction of even the entire show last year your spread trade
long Nikki and short Dan santis that paid off and Spades well done there freeberg you had NBS and Saudi have the most important year in their modern era that actually pretty pressent as well they seem to be yeah I mean if you look at let me just post this this was this journal article that came out in March if you guys remember this when Saudi was
considering accepting Yan instead of dollars for sales of oil to China and then in August the us ramped up pressure on Saudi Arabia to sell oil in dollars not Yuan let me just pull this up for you guys which was obviously follow on story where the US tried to counter the actions which is continuing obviously
today where there's a back and forth and Saudi as I mentioned last week I think is in this really interesting Central pivot position between all of these competing major nuclear powers and fighting for influence and this is a big story and it will continue to be this year and modernizing as society that photo of the fist bump I mean what a
mistake that was where Biden just gratuitously in insulted MBS compare that to the photo of Putin visiting the Middle East and meeting shaking hands with MBS which happened just a few weeks ago and compare the welcome that Putin got in Saudi Arabia and I think UAE to the welcome that Biden got it's just two completely different levels it was a
very warm embrace on both sides I think it was UAE they literally had a parade for him where they had uh the colors of the Russian flag up everywhere so you know we've tried to portray Putin as this Global Pariah we've tried to turn him into this Global Pariah but it's not working because of the way that he is defeating
the collective West in Ukraine I think that it's given him enormous cache and influence in the global South and much of the developing World which would like to stand up to American dominance or or at least is tired of American dominance and if double click on that article the second one I sent on Washington trying to negotiate with the
Saudis you know quote behind the scenes but obviously this all comes out they're asking assurances that Riyad will use dollars not Yuan to price oil sales assurances that Saudi won't allow China to build military bases in the kingdom and limitations on Saudi Arabia using technology developed by China and in exchange the US will protect Saudi will
provide military protection and will help them develop a nuclear program which is an incredible demand so obviously this is an unresolved point but this becomes a pivot moment for Saudi Arabia they may become a nuclear power use this as leverage as the US continues to try and keep dollar hemony alive and my prediction last year was
that Trump would get indicted win the nomination and then agree not to run in order to get a pardon or something in that vein and looks like I'm going to get two of those three correct we'll see on the pardon he has been indicted obviously and he is looks like a lock to win the nomination but we'll see I don't it seems like Nikki hel's doing okay
you'll see biggest political loser of 2024 is what we're going to do next jamat last year you picked D santis I picked D santis that was a pretty easy one saaka picked California also a pretty easy one we know that California's gotten demolished because specifically California went from having a76 billion Surplus in 2022 to a $68
billion deficit now yeah Bonkers yeah I don't think any of those were as obvious as they were in January of last year I think Dan santis was leading he was collecting a lot of big checks and California hadn't imploded I and everybody knew that they were be under pressure but nobody expected to be I think this Swift so all right I don't
think those were obvious I think those were actually pretty decent picks okay that's a good argument and then freberg you picked debt issues for emerging Nations debt markets start to unravel IMF steps in I'm not sure I I have enough information to check in on that one yet any thoughts freeberg before we go on to our predictions for biggest
loser I think we had any big unwinding like I had expected but these problems are bubbling and persist you know obviously Argentina took a big step with the election there that one was one of the countries that was most at risk of having a big event last year but shth who's your prediction for biggest political loser in 2024 the
copes I think on a dollar basis they are the largest spender in Republican politics they have been and they have been the most consistent negative indicator of value and so if you just want to fade a trade I think you can pretty easily just find where the those old school Republicans are putting their money and just kind of short it
and right now as much as I was sort of long the Haley spread trade in 2023 I would probably now short that trade in 24 H okay Switching it up mostly because of the cokes freeberg who do you got well saxel like this one but I think Ukraine might be the Biggest Loser this year as attention shifts to the Brewing conflict in the Middle
East during an election year like the US is facing continuing this funding of this Ukraine Russia conflict with US dollars is becoming a more unpopular issue for people to support and so I think because of all these these competing interests and the political pressure the US will probably not have the uh resources to commit to
Ukraine I think Ukraine's shot at being in NATO is going to fade away and unfortunately it seems like the country may be left behind by the end of this year saxs what do you got well I totally agree with that and I would just add demographic decline even collapse uh they've lost something like half a million soldiers in terms of casualties
they also something like 10 million people have have fled the country I read recently that there's only about 20 million people left in the country and half of them are pensioners so it's not even clear that the working population of the country is going to be able to support the pensioners and of course the war isn't close to being over yet so
there's going to be even more destruction that happens so I I agree with that that pick I up leveled my answer a little bit here to have the collective West as the biggest political loser and Ukraine is a big part of that obviously this huge bet that the collective West made in terms of pressuring and challenging Putin
in Ukraine has completely crapped out but I would also go much further than that you look at what's happening in Israel in Gaza right now and I don't think that Israel's invasion of Gaza is going well at all and again just stepping back these answers don't reflect my desire for what I want to have happened it just reflects my honest
assessment of who the the losers are going to be and I just think that Israel's invasion is is not going well it does not look like they're going to be able to militarily achieve their objective of destroying Hamas Admiral Kirby who's the Pentagon spokesperson even said that the other day which was a pretty amazing
admission at the same time Israel is creating a huge humanitarian crisis in Gaza something like over 20,000 Palestinians have already been killed over 50,000 wounded something like 1.8 million of them have been displaced and it doesn't look like it's going let up anytime soon as a result of this Israel is facing I think a huge
amount of condemnation internationally it is becoming a bit of a global Pariah so that is not going well for America and the west and then you're going to have a whole bunch of Elections this year both in the US and in Europe I think that there's going to be tremendous disruption things are really not going well Europe right now um large parts of
Europe are in recession as a result of losing cheap Russian gas this particularly true of Germany and I think there's going to be some big shakeups in the European Parliament and I wouldn't be surprised if there was similar shakeups in in the US election as well all right and I picked for my biggest political loser I
was going to go with the American voter but I'm hoping that the American voters make better choices and maybe we see some alternative candidates as we said in the last one and I went with Netanyahu here I think and again this is just my assessment this isn't what I want to occur in the world obviously but every major Israeli pole is just
suggesting that they want him out and they put the odds Vox puts the odds of his offer at 75% and obviously yeah Gaza is not going well and it feels like there is a massive shift in terms of what was early support and obvious support for the terror attacks that occurred on 107 and any reasonable person would be supportive of that to hey maybe what's
happening in Gaza is not helping the situation and needs to be resolved and maybe a different approach has to occur and so I think Netanyahu is going to be the biggest loser in 2024 all right let's go on to the biggest business winner of 2024 back to business last year last year in 2023 I predicted laid off Tech workers starting
startup companies would be the big winner chamat you predicted relativity space 3D printing rocket company and Sachs you picked America's natural gas industry freeberg open AI wow a lot of good choices there I think open AI was a huge winner in 2023 yeah freeberg even with the chaos say so I would say so that was a good pick massive Revenue the
highest market cap gain of the Year probably yeah 30 to 90 billion yeah American natural gas industry that really actually cooked in uh 2023 yeah saak yeah yeah it had a new record so good prediction was a good pick yeah good pick all right so let's go right to 2024 predictions freeberg you haven't let us off yet so you're going to lead
be the leadoff batter here what do you got I'm going with commodities businesses which I know isn't speaking a specific business but there's a lot of ways to play it and I think there's a big Commodities boom that's coming back in 2024 there's been a lot of underinvestment relative to demand over the past call it 18 to 24
months coming out of covid and with Rising interest rates a lot of folks have been selling down inventory and there now needs to be a build backup on inventory and Supply there's also a bunch of cash coming into the Commodities markets that was sitting in treasuries as yields go down that cash is coming back so building the base back
up rebuilding stock piles and supplies coming out of the past 18 months obviously economic activity is strong and robust so Commodities businesses are going to see a a killer 2024 chamat what do you got I think the biggest business winner in 202 for is going to be the bootstrapped startup and or the profitable startup but the best will probably be the
bootstrapped profitable startup and I think the reason is that we are underestimating how cheap it's going to be to copy an existing business in 2024 and so if you assume that these models are going to get 10 and 100 times better and you assume the cost of compute is going to get 10 and 100 times cheaper and you assume the cost of
energy is going to get 10 times cheaper you're no longer measuring in decades when a company will be subject to disruption I think you're measuring it in frankly months and so I think you're going to be able to create these companies for very cheap and essentially have them attack an existing business which has upside on economics because
they have just a lot of people and a lot of processes that these gpts can replicate for essentially free so if you're profitable you have the chance to survive and I think if you are unprofitable I think that you're going to be under a lot of pressure I think it's a great pick that's exactly what I'm seeing on the field in the
early stage saaks who's your prediction for a biggest business winner of 2024 who do you predict is going to be the biggest business winner I'm predicting andril for its Roadrunner product which it announced last year and this is a drone Interceptor so basically intercepts drones it's built for groundbased air defense and the reason I
say this is because if you saw recently what was happening in the Red Sea with the hooes the US was having to use $2 million air defense missiles to shoot down $2,000 drones and that is not sustainable so right now we have a huge problem with asymmetric Warfare where our adversaries are using very cheap missiles very cheap drones swarms of
them and they force us to exhaust our air defenses which are just way too expensive on a unit basis cost hundreds of thousands of dollars do you think yeah I think that's right I think the road runner system costs hundreds of thousands of dollars but it can be it's reusable so it's not like you just send one up to take out re if it doesn't blow
up if it does blow up I don't think you can reuse it it basically takes off at at lers this is a basically a AI system where it's self self-driving I guess if you will it has operators but and then it returns back to its base station after it's used it's not like a kamakazi type drone it's actually a drone killer
oh really I think it is I think it can do dual purpose it can either intercept and blow something up or it can return back to base but we'll have to check in on that hey and shout out to our friend pmer lucky come back on the program in we miss you shout out to our boy are you an investor of saxs in uh Andel no I'm not I'm not an investor but I think I
would be yeah you know so they ra a ton of money Palmer great job yeah no Palmer we'll all buy actually I'm building a position right now I've been buying secondary in Andre and for me I was going to go with start up are you really buying secondary shares in andril I've been building a large position in Andro yes I'm I'm I'm
trying to get to a 2% ownership position so I can join the board so I've been yeah using so shout out to my guy bom we lucky I am going to go with for my biggest winner in 2024 training data owners like the New York Times Reddit X Twitter Youtube Etc I think what we learned in 2023 was that the language models are starting to hit parody very quickly and
that the real value is going to be in and it may even become Commodities and open source may win the day so then I think the winner is folks who have the training data and I'm actually proposing a new business model for these language models I think now that we've seen this New York Times an open AI lawsuit I think there's a
really great outcome here which is a market-based solution where if you have a chat GPT account you can log in and Federate with your New York Times subscription or you know any other subscription and then it gives you the tier of chat gp4 with the New York Times and so that could be a win-win for everybody or they could obviously pay a
licensing fee and so I think this is going to be an amazing turnaround for the entire content industry if the language models respect copyright owners and come up with a sustainable system where every year copyright holders can get some money in exchange for using their training data whether it's on images or content so I'm very bullish
accumulate a 2% position in open AI through secondary purchases and get them to do that on the board it's only two billion yeah no I think yeah I I mean we we didn't bring this up because this broke over the the the holiday break but I think Sam alman's doing a great job of telling people he wants to do the right
thing and we we discussed previously the licensing deal they did with Business Insider and the and the parent company of it a springer what do you think the deal with New York Times would look like I think it's going to be a nine fig settlement for previous stuff and then an ongoing licensing fee in order to have the New York Times in their
training data and then you'll be able to say hey what does the New York Times think of this right you could actually do queries about the New York Times in it and I think the New York Times will come up with a license that everybody can use their data if they pay this yearly fee if you stop paying the yearly fee then you can't train on it and we're
in Uncharted Territory you're saying there's going to be a New York Times model and a non- New York Times model well I think you could do two different things one you could do New York Times could make their own model right but they could Fork their model or just to the user interface say if you want to query New York Times information and
have that as part of your results you have to have a New York Times account right so if you say I want best coffee machines or what what's the best coffee equipment it says oh if you had wire cutter and the subscription to New York Times we would include the wire cutter results and this idea that technologists
can't do citations has been proven absolutely incorrect there are language models out there that are using citations all the time open AI I think will wind up losing the case if it goes to them out and I think they're going to pay a big licensing fee to your question chamal my prediction then is that if this happens this is not my pick but I'm
just going to tell you I suspect that what happens is you'll get these yearly licensing fees and then one year the New York Times just falls off a cliff and when it comes time to renegotiate then open AI says no and and they won't have a choice well I mean that's possibility but if you think about the Disney characters you know
let's I don't know if you saw Nintendo and Disney characters you know making stuff on dolly or other things if you make derivative works on that and you want to have that feature as part of your image Creator you just have to have a licensing fee and so I think there's a win-win here to be had and I I'm really interested to see the market based
solution because I don't think this is a Napster situation where like open a get shuts down because opening eyes too Savvy I bet you the big difference between Napster and this is there the content Universe was limited and small here it's infinite and unlimited and so how do you pay anything to anybody without I just think it's like without
direct attribution to revenue which is basically impossible you're kind of making a value judgment which I don't think makes any sense I I think I think doing a revenue Li licing deal is impossible when you get into the weeds when these business people sit down and actually start try to figure out the bid
ask I don't know as a rational coherent business person what you would model in order to present a number yeah so one suggestion would be what percentage of the models creation was using the New York Times data and I think people say 1 to two% of the original chat GPT was built off a trading data was New York Times and then
if they weighted that heavily moth like let's say they said New York Times is an authoritatively five times more important than these other sources that could be upwards of 5 to 10% of the authority of that model yeah but yes it's not easy but what's the Cog yeah but what's the cogs for the like are you telling me that like an AI industry has
this going to be like a 30 40% cost of goods you could say that chat GPT or let's say apple I I predict Apple will do this right they'll do a language model where they say 50% of the revenue that we generate from queries subscri to this goes to the people we built it off of or the lies sure why not why not they're already the music industry
already does that that would guarantee the death of the startup ecosystem and it would guarantee the lock in of big Tech no I don't think so you could build models that don't have the data in you could build models with it so it'll be a choice by the person who builds the model and synthetic data might make it so you don't need the New York Times
shth it's early days for synthetic G no I don't have an opinion I'm just reacting to this idea that 50% of COG then all of a sudden these aren't software companies you know these software companies will have a gross margin of like 30% yeah well what does Spotify pay for music you know so the same arguments made for Spotify you know
or Netflix Jason that's the difference it's limited in scope meaning there's there's only ever one hit song from Rihanna that matters or Jay-Z or whomever pick Taylor Swift and so it's a very scoped content universe and so you can ascribe value much easier because then the user goes and actually listens to that song over another this is about
something that's happening under the waterline where you don't know how the iceberg is buil it's both there are things under the model that do it and then there's also quoting stuff and that's really where the New York Times got them caught them with their hand in the cookie jar is that when it was regurgitating information and giving the
results it was quoting deeply New York Times proprietary content and so that's that's where there's like a you're you're right about the training data but you you might be wrong about the the but that could be fixed right they could train models and they could they could exclude storing any proprietary data you
can create a filter that says the model can't store any of this data but it can still be or can't use it right so if you say what's the best coffee machine it can't use the New York Times wire cut of data and I I bet you that Sam wman has already built a model without it I guarantee you they've already built a for an eer press here in case of
emergency here's the 4.5 model in case they got an injunction which would be highly unlikely but if they did get an injunction they just say okay here's 4.5 it doesn't use the New York Times training data so this is all Uncharted Territory as we all know I think we got everybody's business predictions okay andril
Commodities training data and bootstop profitable startups what a great cohort there let's go on to biggest business losers in 2024 2023 chamat said Google search as measured by profitability engagement Sac said the consumer freeberg said Capital intensive series BC's and DG growth companies that's pretty pretty good winner there
and I said white collar workers without hard skills also known as Surplus Elites any feedback on those boys as your winner I'll give you my prediction for 24 please yes go ahead vertical SAS companies I think are going to get smacked this year and I I mentioned this I don't I can't I think we talked about this sep off off the show but or if we
talked about on the show I apologize but like I think these tools to write code no code tools co-piloting tools and the ability for engineers to get 20 50 100x more productive to build custom applications for their Enterprise are so incredibly powerful I mentioned this to you guys I know of a couple uh vertical
SAS businesses that some of my companies use the software and they're getting off the software because they've built Homegrown Solutions at a very lowcost very low touch way and I'm seeing that so frequently now I think this is a real threat to vertical sasp businesses that can charge thousands of dollars per seat per year that are getting disrupted by
the ability for companies now to very cheaply and quickly build hom grown Solutions using a lot of the generative tools that are out there sax your prediction my prediction for biggest business loser in 24 is is actually the German economy there's two big problems there first is that the loss of cheap Russian gas has really cut the legs out
from under the German industrial model their entire economy is based on Industrial output and cheap Russian gas was sort of at the foundation of that as you guys know someone blew up the nordstream pipeline I think that has really hurt the German economy and then second the German car industry has been massively
impacted by a sudden glut of cheap cars coming from China so if you look at the Chinese automotive industry it's really exploded in the last few years and auto exports is one of you know is one of the biggest products that Germany manufactures and with German costs going up and Chinese costs coming down that's
just not a very good place for them to be so I think double whammy for Germany shth do you have the biggest business loser in 2024 I am going to say that 24 is the peak in terms of valuations of professional sports oh and I will give you four examples in 2023 that I think were in some very concerning or pro sports franchise values as of today the
first was you had an upstart competitor to a league that came out of nowhere used money to overcome the ability to attract Stars I'm talking about the Liv tour versus the PGA and then essentially Force the PGA into merger talks with them the second was you had a country use their balance sheet to basically try to jump start their own professional
sports business in this case it was soccer the country was Saudi Arabia and the players were Ronaldo and Messi they got one but not the other the third was the explosion of nil inside the NCAA you have people in college now making more in some cases than the same player in a professional sports context so there making millions
of dollars to be in college and then the fourth which may not seem like it's related but there was an article in the Wall Street Journal I think recently about a meaningful uptick and churn amongst all the streamers Netflix Hulu all of these companies Amazon who are the only folks with in a position to actually have the balance sheet to keep
paying a premium for professional sports rights so I think when you put that all together you can start to see that there's been a Tipping Point in Enterprise values the acceleration we've seen over the last decade has slowed down so I would say that 2024 is going to be the year of peak Pro Sports values okay starts to come down and I went with
smartphones smartphone manufacturers are facing a major slowdown consumers obviously love their phones and use them constantly but people are skipping a generation of phones and if you look at Apple's Revenue they're having a very hard time getting people to upgrade and so I think that's going to flatten out
they will keep trying to squeeze money out of it I don't know what you guys spent on your iPhone 15 if you got it but I I always buy the top of the line and I think it was $14 or $1,500 this time and when I got the accountants they said oh is this a new laptop I said no it's a new phone but I think this is going to slow down and people will
during austerity they're going to skip to a three versions of it I know I skipped for the first time I skipped the 14 this time around so I'm going with smartphone manufacturers and apple would be obviously the tip of that spear let's keep moving our next prediction biggest business deal of 2024 biggest business deal of 2024 I
went with uh last year my prediction was Amazon getting into Healthcare maybe they buy pelaton or Roman hyns and they have been getting into Healthcare a bunch more and my my wild card was a CCP divesting of Tik Tock that didn't happen chamat you went starlink goes public in a spin out from SpaceX at 75 billion that didn't happen but starlink is doing
fantastic Sachs you said a deal between Putin and she and then freeberg you said Petro for Juan trade the Saudi China trade any thoughts on the predictions there doesn't look like anybody nailed it well no actually Putin G did make a deal their ties have never been stronger and the trade between those two countries keeps increasing as
a result of the fact that we pushed Russia into China's arm so that absolutely happened and what's your prediction to sh saxs biggest business deal Sachs what do you got my biggest business deal is whatever the FED decides to do to replace or extend btfp the bank term funding program um remember that the btfp which is what the
FED used to bail out the regional banking system last year and was it like March or April it was only supposed to last for one year it's supposed to be a temporary program but I do not think that the balance sheets of regional banks are healthy enough to survive without this continued liquidity from this program program so I think the
fed's going to have to do something to either replace a program extend the program they're going to have to do something and I think that Regional banks are still in pretty bad shape with you know impaired commercial debt portfolios and they need this liquidity as long as the yield curve remains inverted so I think the FED is going to
try and somehow figure out a program to keep these guys liquid until they can de invert the yield curve and I think the fed's trying to massage all of this into place without there being a recession seems like they'll be able to do it jamat what do you got I'm going to go with the same thing I think I was just off by your starlink go public
fascinating I like it and I had a similar theme my Wild Card my wild card last year that the C CP would divest of Tik Tok I'm going to say this year that I think Tik Tok goes public and they'll be under pressure from different political factions to get the CCP off the board so I'm going to go with bite dance taking going public or Tik Tok
spinning out and going public some some version of that freeberg what do you got for this year we got some continuation bets here from Jake Allen yeah I would keep going with my Petro Yuan trade bet I don't think that the us is going to let Saudi become a nuclear power but so maybe leave that one outstanding but I
think rights holder is getting LIC ing deals for generative AI there's going to be a couple of Blockbuster deals this year great where you'll see like Disney license out a chunk of their Library so people can generate on demand video games or content or I don't know you guys remember this company in the early 2000s called Zazzle do you remember that
company yeah what was that printed stuff on mugs yeah and they had a big deal with Disney where the idea was you could put any character in any way you want on any piece of like t-shirt or mug or whatever merch yeah and it was like merch and it was a big deal I think we see that again with generative AI this year where you can take for example a
character from a movie and generate them in an image so anyone that has in in interest in content rights will start to license it out and get a lot of value from it absolutely see a couple big deals like that this year okay most contrarian belief of 2024 I went American exceptionalism Source I think I I like that prediction
from last year ah had chamat you said inflation doesn't fall off a cliff fastest people want saak says the Bromance between Biden and zalinsky comes to an end freeberg you said 2023 marks the beginning of the end of the US dollar as the global Reserve currency I nailed that one um it it didn't fall off a cliff it didn't what was inflation in the first
quarter of 2023 just kidding it fell off a cliff oh I'm like it yeah I'm like wait a second it's like what the you talking about yeah sorry you're confusing like really wait a second I think you get the Jim Kramer or the professor Galloway moment for that prediction yeah I think you might have missed that one by a bit all right what
do you got chath for this year what do you got most contrarian belief of 2024 I think the Enterprise value of open AI goes down oh okay I don't think it has anything to do with open AI I think it has everything to do with the rest of the industry I I think there's a couple of factors at play similar to what I
just said earlier but if you actually try to use these tools which now I have been in my sort of day job as as CEO I've been trying to build models Sunny's been helping me my takeaway are two things number one is the latency right now amongst all these AI tools makes building production quality code absolutely impossible so you can't have
apis where you take 30 40 50 seconds in between a request to get data back it's that's ridiculous these need to be starter yeah 50 30 40 70 milliseconds second is the actual cost of a million tokens on any of these platforms is economically untenable if you're trying to build something so whether it's Amazon whether it's
together AI whether it's open AI it's extremely extremely expensive so I think that capitalism would tell you that if these two things are true you should expect people to Arbitrage that opening and so if you see cloud services come out that allow you to basically get millisecond latency batch size one on the one hand and second
where you have pricing for a million tokens that's sort of 10 20 cents those folks and they'll need to build their own custom Hardware to do it but those folks will multiply the capability of this Market by a THX and I think when that happens the open source models really proliferate proprietary models and closed models go
under pressure and the existing economics of how you make money today will get reallocated to those different players and I think in that it's going to be very hard for existing folks I I would say the same is probably true for NVIDIA the folks that have won up until today to maintain a multiple of market cap in this next year if that happens
and so my prediction is that will happen and as a result the Enterprise values of of those companies and I think open a will be the most obvious will go down people buying secondary at 90 billion right now will be underwater next year well no it's again they have to believe that the revenue composition today is sustainable and if you look
under the hood half the revenue is consumers paying subscriptions the other half the revenue our Enterprises paying for essentially some version of AWS yes but the problem is that version of AWS is econom ially non functional it's unsustainable it's way too expensive and it's way too slow and by the way that's just not an open AI problem it's an
entire industry problem and so if this industry is really going to be real it needs to be literally dirt cheap and as close to zero as possible the minute that that happens that Revenue goes away so then they they're just left with the subscription and by the way the people that provide that will be the ones that have the hardware to
enable that thousand Xing of the cost which is azure AWS and no I think these are startups that are building proprietary Hardware oh okay wow so there's another prediction freeberg what do you got 2024 prediction most contrarian belief okay so I don't think we're past the conflict escalation stage I think things are only
going to continue to mount so a lot of the theater that we see on a global stage is more fundamentally driven by these big cycles that we're in so I think a big one and a kind of tactical one I think the big one that's contrarian is that there's an increased probability of a nuclear weapon being used for the first time in
conflict and I think that that's conditioned on the fact that there are declining military uh supplies there's declining appetite and capacity to support traditional conflict meat grinder type conflicts that that we're seeing Sprout up everywhere right now and or not everywhere but in a lot of places and you could see a moment where
as I mentioned in the past someone gets backed into a corner and a tactical low yield nuclear weapon gets used and I think that when you do that it opens up the gates to hell so it's a little scary that's why you know we all joking aside that's why you bought the radiation suits and and by the way I don't think this is a high probability and I'm not
joking I don't think it's a high probability I think it's like one you know call it one to two% chance something like this happens but it's 10x where it was five years ago and so that's the outcome of this is terrifying yeah yeah it's such a significant event that it's it's definitely one to kind of be be thoughtful about um and then the
other one that I kind of said was tactical is I think there's a risk that turkey gets challenged to leave NATO that a lot of what's going on right now where turkey is siding with Hamas this has obviously been talked about and rumored about for a long time there's no real mechanism by the way for kicking a member out of NATO but I'll share with
you guys there's a lot of political commentary that turkey cannot be a trusted Ally and obviously that now you know turkey is siding with folks who are actual threats uh to the West the US incentive is you don't want to see turkey with the biggest one of the biggest armies in Europe run into Russia's arms you're going to try to
keep them in NATO but there is a real risk that you start to see the first fracturing of NATO happen with turkey being asked to leave or some negotiation on something that happens this year so that that's one that I keep an eye on that is certainly not top of anyone's mind but it certainly begins to beg the question of the uh the importance NATO
what do you got sxs your most contrarian belief can I first just make a comment on last year's pick yes if it's okay so I you know last year I felt like I was going out in a limb predicting a rift in the Bromance between Biden and zalinsky because that relationship seem so tight and with about four days left in
the year there was this article that came out in Politico that says the Biden Administration is quietly shifting its strategy in Ukraine the article basically says that the administration wants to go on the defensive and I think pretty clearly it wants a ceasefire and a frozen conflict it wants to get this conflict sort of out of the way swept
under the rug before the election season really cranks into high gear and the problem they have is that zalinski does not want to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia that would involve Ukraine losing territory so there is now a rift between maybe not Biden himself but let's say Biden operatives the Biden Administration and what zalinsky wants
and I think this will be a theme in 2024 is how do you reign in zalinski after you've been telling the public for the last two years that our job is to support whatever zalinsky wants and your prediction for this year so my prediction for for this year is that the soft Landing gets very bumpy I think that over the last two months of the
year I think markets got super optimistic they started pricing in big Fed rate Cuts you know let's call it one and a half% so we had this h stock market rally in November December and I think there's generally a very strong belief that the FED will be able to pull off the soft Landing I'm not necessarily saying that
there's going to be a recession I just you know I feel like I've predicted 10 of the last two recessions so I keep basically predicting recession when there's not one yeah but I do think that there's just been too much too soon of this Euphoria and I just think that this year is going to be a lot bumpier than that both politically and
economically so I think there's just a little bit too much Euphoria and overoptimism right now I'm tempted to go again with American exceptionalism I think I nailed that last year America just had an amazing year in 2023 while Xi Jinping made unforced errors and getting rid of capitalism in his country and nobody starting companies there and
stock market falling apart real estate falling apart and now he's coming back to America as we saw when he had a summit with Biden asking people please come back and invest again huge unforced and I think Russia with the huge unforced era losing hundreds of thousands of their citizens their young people to a senseless War for no reason
and losing customers in the west like Germany as you pointed out Sachs I think American exceptionalism will continue to sore but I don't want to take the same prediction so I also consider two other options Apple making huge gains in generative Ai and then streaming services right sizing and becoming highly profitable and having a rebound
between those two I think I'm going to go with apple as my contrarian belief I think apple is going to become a player in AI the end of the year maybe they reboot Siri but they're going to figure something out and I think they're not going to remain on the sidelines when it comes to AI so I'm going to go with apple
making huge gains in generative AI or AI in general maybe a new Seri coming soon best performing asset of 2024 in 2023 I went with seed stage investing I think I'll be proven right in 5 years but that's kind of hard to prove in the short term chth you said cash and the front end of the yield curve s went with short-term T bills as well and freeberg
you went with semiconductor Capital Equipment oil gas Services Pharma infrastructure anybody have thoughts on their predictions from last year Dash was pretty good at 5% no kidding right as good as it gets yeah this's just not a lot of motivation to enter the markets when you're earning five five and a half% risk free Okay so let's do our 20
sem cap equipment up 60% aming Good Year good year freeberg what do you got what's your prediction for best performing asset of this coming year oh I took the uranium ETF Ur Easy Money whether it plays out in the next 12 months or over time I'm not sure it's shift an inevitability a lot of folks have this beted on this trade on
it's it's kind of Anil that we have to see it's a it's an index on businesses that benefit from Mining and producing nuclear power mining uranium producing nuclear power China is building up 450 nuclear power stations as we' talked about there's a lot of ESG driven demand and a lot of conflict driven demand big shift
underway a lot of deregulatory effort underway globally to try and get nuclear back on track nuclear power back on track so these companies are going to benefit from this pig macro cycle so it's a and this is an existing ETF or you're saying you you you roll one no called uranium it's a uranium tracking ETF Ur is the ticker I like a lot
in I do a lot of esoteric General statements this one I thought I'd go a little specific I like it I mean it's it's it's a great prediction and sentiment has certainly changed here in the US by way that trade has been on right so since I'll just tell you guys it bottomed out in March of this year at 19 bucks it's up 50% since then and in
the last five years you know it's up 2x but plenty of room to run if you look at the underlying assets that BTF tracks chath what do you got best performing asset of 2024 what's your prediction I have to do it with the worst performing asset of 2024 because it's a bit of a spread trade so I'm going to take the public software
index Tech stock index and my short is going to be the private tech software companies the late stage mostly SAS companies and I think we've all talked about the reasons why but I think that the terminal valuations are getting reset in the public markets I don't think the growth rates are there in the private companies and so you're going to
have a reset on valuation in many cases that reset may just be that they stay at the same valuation 3 years later even after doubling revenue or more the problem is you will have taken another 30% delution between now and then because of all the stock-based comp that these private companies give out so long the
public Tech cycle short the private late stage Tech cycle expecting a valuation contraction in the ladder what do you got sxs what do you think is going to be the best performing asset of 2024 well I'm really not sure about this so I would urge nobody to actually trade on this but yes this is not investment advice to be clear none of this is
investment advice yeah I'm not I'm not trading on this on these predictions so you shouldn't either my guess here just a guess is energy is energy stocks um Energy prices could be among the top performers of 2024 just because there's so much risk of conflict breaking out now and escalating so I agree with freeberg that there are huge risks of
escalation in the Middle East the Ukraine war is still going on I think not enough attention is being paid to what's happening between Venezuela and Guyana uh Venezuela is basically attempting to Annex guyana's offshore oil reserves which are huge this is basically just pure theft Ethiopia ALS o has tense relationships with a few of its
neighbors and I could easily see there being a war that breaks out between Ethiopia and Egypt or Ethiopia and irraa and and then that could spill over and create further disruption in the Red Sea we also still have this unresolved issue of the hoodies and of course you have neocon bring for war with Iran as they always do John Bolton
just published another piece saying that we had to go to war with Iran so there's just so many ways that the conflict could escalate and create I think a spike in the price of oil all right I you know I'd love to I in my heart of hearts I believe the best performing asset will still be seed stage startups but I'm going to go with consumer
Comfort Services I think as austerity measures and this whether we have a soft Landing or recession it's clear the consumers have spent all their money so they're going to go for small luxuries like door Dash BNB Uber small things to have great experiences and I'm talking my book in two out of those three which I own
shares in but I think consumers are going to keep treating themselves to getting some door Dash or uh you know getting an Airbnb and going to Japan or whatever it happens to be so consumer Comfort Services is my pick for the best performing asset of 2024 worst performing asset let's go right on to worst performing asset we're cooking
with oil worst performing asset I went with energy Cho Tech energy junk debt saak went with offic hours in San Francisco and Friberg went with Consumer Credit wow I think we nailed it in almost all those cases here what do we got for 2024 saki got a 2024 prediction of worst performing asset again this is not investing advice yeah so I'm not going
to trade on this so just take it with a grain of salt but I would bet against the Magnificent 7 just because I believe that what goes up must come down and the hotter they are the Harder They Fall I'm not saying that the Magnificent 7 are actually going to go down I'm just saying that the S&P 493 are going to catch up a little bit
so I would book this as a spread trade where I would bet on the S&P 493 over the mnon 7 because again I just think that there's got to be some catching up here and the huge gains made by the Magnificent 7 were really based on story you know based on AI and I don't see why those gains should be limited to the Magnificent 7 if AI is going to play
such a big role in the economy chamat I too when you predicted earlier about open ey losing some value my worst performing asset in 2024 is llm startups I believe they've been massively overvalued and I believe open source is making an incredible run at them and I think they're going to hit parody and there's too many players this is like
having 15 search engines or 20 Amazon there's just too many players and there's too much parody the prices make no sense and I think they're all going to come down by you know 50 60 70 80% in terms of their valuations that that won't get marked in their books but that will be the reality of where their stocks will trade on the private markets
freeberg what's your worst performing asset worst performing asset just based on what I shared earlier I would go short vertical sass vertical software companies and long Cloud providers that have ai tools and platforms that will allow Enterprises to build custom applications in a low cost low code way and so you
could obviously pick the companies that would go in that bucket go along those those Cloud bucket and go short the vertical bucket is there like a per seat price threshold that you think would kind of demarcate the companies that you think are at risk in other words like I invest in plenty of SAS companies that sell seats at five 10 bucks per per
month I'm just like very skeptical that it's worth an Enterprises while to recreate that software no and and so I'll give you an example there's a vertical software provider we're paying five grand per seat per year right now and we look at that and we're like okay it's basically a data management tool for our particular vertical let's just go
recreate that and did it very quickly very low cost and we're going to replace it cut that out I don't want to say that but yeah is it so it's it's like you know very specific very expensive but I mean sax you could probably see the same thing happen in sales CRM type tools that are obviously also very expensive
and how much is it D how much do you pay five grand grand year five grand per year so that's basically over $400 a seat per we we have like 100 employees so we're paying like 500 Grand and so one of our software engineers is like this spins up a replacement for it we're going to roll it out in q1 okay so is there is there like a per se per month
price that you think starts to where it doesn't work is it 50 bucks what is the number I I I I mean I do the math but yeah it shouldn't be in the range that it's at for sure but a lot of these guys where they had a monopoly and it wasn't worth the company's time to try and invest in software at the price point
that they were charging they found a market now the market has to compress so I'm not saying that the companies go away but I do think pricing compression is going to hurt these business a lot if you pay could pay 50,000 for the same software instead of 500 you would not have spun it up yourself so there is a reasonable number between those two
correct and that reasonable number might be 250 or something but and here's the thing that we need to also factor in which is that free Berg's companies that engineer could also then just release that product for everybody else to use at 10 and everybody else will then use it because it'll be good enough and that
and that 80% solution will take over the will take over the market yeah that's my point there's going to be price and compression this is the thing like I think that people underestimate how deflationary this whole thing is it's like ex it's it's like two to three orders of magnitude more deflationary than people have any inkling of yep
interestingly I had David hanmar Hansen on this weekend startups and they're releasing something called on.com where they're going to charge for software one time like we used to do and their first product is a slack killer and so the idea of paying per seat for slack what they're planning to do is just charge you you know
95 no you find a hosting company soost okay so old school it's old school old old school on Prem software on Prem and then you pay you pay an upgrade fee when you upgrade the software basically I think they're GNA you're paying them like a maintenance percentage that's the way just you guys old school enterprise software right the pricing model was the
revenue model was always built that when you did a sale you would make on average 20% of the revenue per year in update fees and so that and then everything switch to SAS which just continue support support maintenance all that kind of stuff so it's never they say it's one time it's one time for the software but if you want to stay up to
dat and get support and patches and all that kind offf main yeah and the old school enterprise software model was always like figure 20% of the install cost right and by the way this is one of the reasons why Oracle made so much money is they did a roll up of all these old school on-prem software companies that weren't growing but the maintenance
fees were just rolling in forever Y and they rolled all that stuff up and then probably raised the fees I mean for me you know when you have a 20 person company 50 person company the slack fees don't seem like a big deal but when you get to you know when you're spending $500,000 or a million dollars a year on
something like slack you know then maybe you would consider other options and I know people at large organizations that have done that because there's an open source competitor to it so that does exist in the world okay no but what freeberg is bringing up is like why would you support 500,000 to million doar a year Opex for software I mean can
you really put a model together that shows that that's somehow a creative to you especially if you're a money losing startup it just doesn't make any logical sense I understand that it happens and the fact that that software SAS companies have been able to make 80 to 90% margins and grow on that it has created the best business model in
history but I think what may become apparent now is that the SAS business model is really a temporary phenomenon that existed between ubiquity of the internet and the development of AI and lowc cost low code tools uh for developing software yeah the D it was an Arbitrage of the dir of Engineers it was the gross margin that was correlated to
the lack and now now that the work that software Engineers could have done has been automated into software itself you are going to see a lot of that Arbitrage say differently free you could say like the number of Engineers has now multiplied by a millionfold that's right and now everyone has them a so then the
gross margins were not going to be 90% the gross margins maybe 30% right and so so everything gets competed away and pricing goes down pricing gets compressed and that's why this is a big macro trend for me like I'm and I'm just seeing it across every company everyone's rethinking whether or not to pay the seat fees for all different
types of software tools by the way the the part of that which is economically true is if you look at every other category in the economy and you look at the gross margin profile of businesses that are not pure play Tech we have grown up and we've monetized this belief that tech companies not only can start at 80 to 90% but stay there inde
definitely stay there yeah they should be at 40% not even every other Market can start off in the 50 60 70% when they're nent but capitalism competes away those Market down to 30 to 40% right and a best-in-class business generates 20 to 25% ebit margins on a sustained basis so if you believe that the average bestr run company is a 35%
gross margin business with 20 to 25% free cash flow mergin tech stocks have a long way to go down exactly exactly software software companies yeah software companies but if it's priced below the cost of you rebuilding it then you're not you're just it's a buyer Jason the point is the point is like when somebody does that so
freed BG's company did that work he doesn't even need to need want to make a profit from that software to just say anybody else can use this I have an auto GPT that will basically configure myself to you if you want to use it and now that n plus first company who's starting up with two or three people can now
raise an order of magnitude less money and will write a GPT that connects to his and now has this so this is my point where like it just it's it's it's just a race to the bottom y all right last year for our most anticipated Trend shth and I both picked austerity feels like that came to fruition s you picked you're kidding right we did not see any
austerity we uh added like two trillion to the debt 34 trillion I was talking about consumers and and companies and individuals well consumers didn't didn't uh cut either I mean they kept spending and in fact credit card debt is now at the highest level it's ever been so where's the austerity uh I think it's happening right now where people are maxed out
you're already starting to see it happen with travel in some of those areas but uh yeah we could be off by six months on this one uh sa you said Trump's influence in the GOP Wes that was definitely wrong yeah that was fful thinking freeberg sell genene Wishful for you Wishful for you too you don't over and over again you don't want him
as your candidate well I can explain that I mean at the end of 2022 we had that election That was supposed to be a red wave and it turned into a red puddle remember that and re it was a big loser for the GOP and a lot of the candidates I'd say in particular the candidates who had been endorsed and supported by Trump ended up losing not
doing very well so and then by contrast it seemed like the one part of the country where the Republicans done incredibly well was in Florida where obvious Des won by like 20 points and added seats to their majority in the legislature so it seemed like going into the year that danis was kind of the ER apparent and Trump's influence would wne
but like you said that may have been wishful thinking it's clearly not what's happened but a big part of the reason why Trump's influence is greater than ever is because of all this lawfare all these indictments against him and this uh prosecution and persecution of him by Biden and his minions it's really I
think galvanized the base to support Trump freeberg last year you said cell gene therapy becoming more mainstream how did that one pan out your prediction most imp Trend I don't know about mainstream but I mean we're seeing we've seen more approvals this year it's been good I mean steady steady pace of saw the CLE cell product come out CLE cell
came to Market yep there's a few more that got approved so in cell therapy so it's great yeah we're seeing good progress there and I I remember there's like over a thousand in clinicals so there's this tidal wave coming to Market soon of cell and Gene therapies that are going to have a profound effect on a lot
of disease conditions so really exciting freeberg you want to continue and tell us what your most anticipated so this year I'm really excited uh based on the progress we've seen in 2023 of predictive models AI driven discovery of Novel molecules materials and methods of production in biofarma in chemical engineering lots of new materials and
new drugs that are actually coming out of software not coming out of Brute Force wet lab Discovery processing and then we're also seeing these really amazing generative systems on production processes in chemistry that are going to unlock all of these new products and drop costs going back to the deflationary point not only does
this introduce new products into the world that are going to benefit Humanity but it reduces the cost of making them and reduces the footprint of making them so there's a lot of great benefit coming from these predictive modeling tools that's starting to percolate its way into these industries so I'm excited about seeing what comes to Market this
year I'm sure we're going to have a science Corner at some point this year that says look at this amazing new thing that was discovered in software and it works and it's going to be really cool okay what do you got jamath for your most anticipated trend of 2024 what are you most anticipating Jam I think this is the most important year for Bitcoin
that has ever existed we are probably days away from a series of ETFs being approved and so this is the moment for Bitcoin to to use that old term cross the casm and really seen mainstream adoption where our parents and our grand parents understand what it is can buy it and then do buy it and I think that if all of this comes to pass Bitcoin will
be a part of the traditional Financial lexicon by the end of 2024 so that is my most anticipated trend of the year what do you got Sachs for your most Anti anticipated trend of the Year Sachs whatam said is a pretty good one I think there's a version of that same thing in AI I mean I I it's hard to know exactly
what all the advancements are going to be be in AI but you know when we look back on it in 5 or 10 years it's going to be pretty clear that the exponential pace of advancement in AI continued and so I can't say exactly what those breakthroughs are going to be this year but they certainly are going to be some and I think we'll see those Innovations
continue to percolate down to more and more of the average sort of mainstream consumer Sachs once again you and I are sympatico I picked my most anticipated trend of 2024 as efficiency in the form of AI advances and Outsourcing basically a lot of Americans don't want to work or they want to work from home or they want High salaries we have record low
unemployment thanks to Biden I'm joking but all of this is forcing people to build robots Ai and software to Route Around you know and make things more efficient and I think the number one Trend I'm seeing from startups and they tend to adopt this stuff early is outsourcing to all other geographies around the world for work because it's
so easy Once you have a work from home philosophy uh or Paradigm at your company well adding somebody from Portugal Manila Argentina Canada is the same as adding somebody from outside of New York City or Silicon Valley or LA but you can do so at a third of the price for somebody maybe who really wants the work and so I think
efficiency is my most anticipated Trend but in the form of AI and Outsourcing okay now media everybody loves when we do our most anticipated media for 2024 for last year I had Oppenheimer wow that was great chamath you had Dune part two that was delayed saak you also had Oppenheimer what did you think of Oppenheimer sax who did a deliver for
you have you seen it I thought it was good not great it was very long and it kind of went on and on yeah it's not a movie I need to see a second time let's put it that way okay and freeberg you said generative AI based media for this year I'm I have to confess I have inside information so my prediction is going to be the winner it
turns out our favorite DJ is dropping a new album in 2024 and I got a release track so my most anticipated media I'll just play the the unreleased track here what is this according to NASA there's a new look at Uranus Uranus Uranus talk about myus Uranus Uranus is this young Spielberg this is Young Spielberg coming at you the Summer Jam
of the Year Urus how was your it's a banger well there it is talk about myus coming at you Banger he obviously likes the Deep base of my voice he does like the Deep base of your voice in his in yes so that's a banger that's going to be I think the that's gonna carry that's gonna be the summer Anthem the new album
from Young Spiel book dropping that's the lead title track your anus coming at you I also am looking forward to Gladiator too is coming out really Scott Lucius the nephew of commos is a grown man it's going to be awesome I hope and Netflix's three body problem if you haven't read the books they're great and that's being done by The Game of Thrones
guys that's gonna come out March and that's gonna be awesome D and D anyway three body problem Gladiator once the books ran out they were kind of yeah they were kind of on their own there and the show kind of declined it was a terrible last season in this case the three body problem is a complete series and it's it's
mind-blowing in terms of its epicness SX what's your most anticipated media of 2024 is there a Putin biography coming out is it Alex Jones's biography 10p part series on Netflix what do you got what are you looking forward to well I I agree with you about Gladiator 2 we actually have similar taste in in movies I'm also looking forward to House of the
Dragon season 2 oh yes but one project I will give a little plug to is Jimmy Sony's book the founders which is the story of PayPal and the entrepreneurs who shaped Sil Valley that came out in 2022 the reason I'm mentioning it is because I optioned this book along with Jack Selby who's another PayPal Mafia
Alum who has a film company and so we've optioned this and we have just made a deal with Drake's company called dream crew to turn this into some sort of television series could be done as a docu wait did you say Drake the musician Drake yeah he actually has a very successful production company called dream crew they're the producers of
euphoria which is this huge hit oh sure on HBO terrifying so they've decided to it is kind of a terrifying show if you have kids it's terrifying it is terrifying incred show terrifying it's an incredible show but terrifying and yeah it is scary any event it's a big hit so they've produced a lot of not just music but television content
they're very interested in the story and so we're partnering with them to create a TV show so hopefully that comes together this year are you in production this year on it or is it no it's going into development this year then hopefully you get an EP credit sex yeah how much does it cost for the rest of us to get EP credits 50 50 Grand
yeah is it a 50 grander or is a little this is this is uh this is gonna be an expensive one oh really well who's your dream is it HBO is a dream or Netflix yeah who or Netflix ultimately a studio would make this right you would want HBO or Netflix I take it those are the top two in terms of making high quality stuff they would be really good yeah it
doesn't have to those two but they would be good it could be Amazon Prime I mean there's a lot of these and who are you hoping plays a young sack who would play a Young good question that's good question who would play a Young David saaks what's the name of the guy that's dating Zena what's what's his name Tom Holland how
about that Tom Holland oh Peter Parker Peter Parker yeah how about Millie Bobby Brown for you only one guy can play a young sex that it would be Ryan gos well you guys are really shooting the moon with this Tom Holland's interesting J K's busy on the internet right now he's gonna give no I'm looking I'm looking on
the internet for a young actor to play USX well well let the audience come back to that let the audience decide who plays a young sax yeah chath you looking forward to anything in in uh media in 2024 did you have anything for us to uh look out for Jimmy Donaldson Mr Beast added a 100 million subscribers on YouTube in 2023 more than two times the next
largest channel and if you watch his content Mr Beast channel it's incredible and that has become event based viewing now for hundreds of millions of people so I am really excited to see what production value gets cranked out in 2024 from these guys but my that's my most anticipated media is uh is Mr Beast and Freebird you anything you're looking
forward to in the media space in 2024 I mean I put AI generated news which I think has become like an interesting have you guys seen these where there's like a broadcaster that just tells you the news and they're like naked I haven't seen that no that was the thing in the early days of the internet right wasn't there like naked
news or something no that was like a meme from Naked News it was like naked news where like these people would be like in in the process of undressing as they as they like read the news it was so stupid Oh really it was really dumb but I it did capture people's imagination Naked News you could basically watch newscasters n could read the news I do
think you're going to see a lot of this real time generative video that's going to take as a it's input uh news feeds and develop some understanding and then present it back to you in whatever visual format you want and so you'll have your own personal newscaster presenting you the stuff that's interesting and be like no no no tell me
less about the Middle East tell me more about Wall Street tell me more about tech and you can basically interact with it and curate your own personal Newsfeed whether that's through video or through text or through audio you can have it presented to you any way you want so I'm really excited for the DAT that happen
so I don't have to Doom scroll through Twitter all the time to get news and I can have you know a personally currated news caster to your point one of the things that one of the tasks that I had this year was to kind of like take a model and learn how to fine-tune it and sunny and I we took uh stable diffusion and there's a mod to it
called Juggernaut XL which basically produces no the most beautiful people you've ever seen like under any boundary condition it doesn't matter what prompt you give handsome the people that it generates are the most stunningly symmetrically beautiful beautiful people and all it's going to take to your point is just just put this stuff together
next year and you'll have these people that capture your attention and can keep your attention and they'll tell you the news or whatever and you can just say skip you can say tell me more you can say go back you can say hey I want to hear more like double click on that story and interact with it it's going to
be incredible I do think it's it's going to happen in 2024 where a series of products will come out that start to look like this and it'll get in terms if that as they're telling the news you can have another agent that's basically scoring it and telling you how biased it is yeah by the way I'll tell you a crazy story yesterday after Jason
Jason took Nat and I out yesterday we had an epic day it was incredible fun good times I was totally gassed skiing and so I took a nap and I fell asleep for like 40 minutes and I woke up and I turned on the TV and I watched CNN for 20 minutes have you guys watched CNN I can't watch more than a minute it is so bad it is for stupid all Network
news yeah all Network new it's really bad Jason like how biased it is and just how inaccurate it is if you were to watch it for an hour a day you would have this totally lopsided view of what's going on in the world that is completely not accurate but here's my here's my point there's nobody factchecking CNN just like there's
nobody really factchecking Fox News but my thought is these models and these AI tools should be the thing that presents objective news and then actually just tells the truth I disagree I think what will happen is people will bias this the the delivery to what they want to hear and you'll end up having something that's going to become more of an echo
chamber for you I want to hear more about how X Y or Z is so great I want to hear less about the stuff that I don't agree with and you're going to curate your news to exactly what's happened with social media so I don't know if that's necessarily how this will evolve CH because people don't like to hear
what they don't believe or what they don't already know you mean they don't want to hear the truth yeah they want to hear the truth that speaks to them their version of the truth they want to be emotionally titilated you know it's about time might let you guys know that we ran an experiment right now chth and freeberg I did this with Sax's
permission but Sax's participation here today was actually his AI this is an AI version of Sachs that we programmed AI Sachs can you reveal yourself and and what training data went into this version of AI saxs can you can you give us something about your training data AI saxs what training data was used if this is a bit you want to do you're going to
have to give me more of a heads up I mean I'm would be hilarious though if we actually trained like a sax model and we had him come on and we tried to fool the audience can we just do a quick round table if you guys were to summarize your in one word or two words your emotional condition for 2024 what would it be like
how are you feeling going in 2024 sex oh I feel fine but if I were to describe 24 in one word I would say the year is going to be turbulent turbulent but I feel I feel level that's not me but I feel like the world's going to be very turbulent um jcal kind of exhilarated enthusiastic about 2024 it feels like a lot of the cleanup work you know that we
had to do in 2023 2022 like I feel like a lot of that's we we've work through it and uh I'm finding a lot of optimistic so I guess I would be you know enthusiastic and optimistic about 2024 I'm really excited to go to work and create I want to create some new things in 2024 I feel very creative creative yeah yeah
creative I would say cautious and pensive I think that just a lot of stuff is changing underfoot and I'm personally not excited to make a bunch of decisions because I worry that those decisions will have to be remade or unmade even nine or 10 months later so I I'm just kind of like very pensive I'm like wow a lot of stuff can change will
change even just like you know and then freeberg knows this but like you know there's like some deals underfoot that like I think for the industry as a like as a whole are just really meaningful things and so to do stuff right now freeberg makes me very anxious so right I'm really cautious and and pensive right where are you at
freeberg I'm excited I'm enjoying my new job as CEO at ohol there's so much cool stuff happening I'm personally excited about it so this is the most excited I've felt in many years in terms of my my work and then I would and I'm really excited to share what we've done next year which or earlier this year which I'll do I'll do it on the show first
obviously and then looking outside of the world I'm just a little cautious I'm a little nervous I think there's a like there's still a lot of Tinder boxes out there so I mean you guys know like we joke about it but I do think there's these like little mouth traps that can get set off and then they set off all the other
mouse traps so there's a couple of those things out there that I'm a little nervous about but in the course of history aren't there always conflicts in the world and like do you try to like put them on a spectrum of like there's always going to be conflict there's always going to be there's never been this much debt in the world and that's
what makes me so nervous I think yeah no and I think they're related so actual conflict relates to the debt load and that's why I'm so nervous because we've never been you can't keep your societal fabric together if you have a lot of debt and you can't grow your economy those are two that's a simple fact and so leads naturally to
finding points of conflict with other nations and other places because you know you look for conflict elsewhere there's a good chance that will the Republicans will force some momentary temporary budget cuts in this next yeah coule shut down yeah a couple weeks 17 two week two weeks away yeah yeah it's pretty interesting under the terms of
the debt ciling increase that they agreed to last year they're supposed to all agree on a new budget and if they don't then there's a 1% cut across the board on discretionary spending that goes into effect right if I were the Republicans why agree to a deal you're never going to do better than a 1% cut in discretionary spending if you care
about austerity or just having any kind of Reason in our spending just take the 1% cut just don't agree to anything agreed that's the most likely path right at this point I hope so and you know 1% cut cut is a rounding ER but the um Washington Elite are going to shriek like crazy over that I mean they're gonna yeah squeal over this minuscule
cut like we were slashing their budgets right but that's all do it I think yeah exactly they're cutting their fingernail and they're crying it's like just clip your toil to they're gonna act like we cut off their arm when they got like a fingernail clip yeah it's nothing all right I gotta run all right everybody
what an amazing 2023 we had here's to a great 2024 you got your prediction show and we'll be back with more news and a and a classic all-in episode next week have a great New Year and we wish you all the best in 2024 love you boys back at you byebye let your winners ride Rainman David and instead we open source it to
the fans and they've just gone crazy with it queen [Music] of Besties are my dog take it your driveway oh man myit will meet me at we should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all this useless it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow what we need to get [Music] mer I'm going all [Music] in