well you're talking about three very different actors there wait David David behind you is your security cameras are on do you want to turn those off yeah I don't know how that all right hold on a second you sit there and watch those all day security apparatus Christ what is this guy the Batman he sits in that couch all day and
watches his security Wayne hey did you see that behind him it was so dystopian oh my gosh you must have caught some crazy [ __ ] on those security cameras sucks what do you do with that [Music] let your winners [Music] ride and instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy with it
Queen okay everybody Welcome to episode 150 of the Allin podcast yes we've made it to 150 episodes somehow talking about technology business and of course politics and this week we will continue our discussion tragically about the situation in Israel and the war with Hamas and a lot of the downstream effects of what's going on
here and try to make sense of the world as we do we gave a disclaimer last week we're not experts and I suspect many of you are not experts on this but we're going to try to talk about the hard topic here and do it good faith and then we will move on to topics that don't have to do with the war in Gaza uh That
Could by the time you read this again another disclaimer by the time you listen to this podcast a ground Invasion may or may not have started we tape these on Thursdays and you listen to them generally speaking on Saturdays and Sundays with me again this week chth poaa David saaks and of course David Friedberg and uh gentlemen I'm just just
going around the horn here quick before I tee up the first topic how's everybody feeling about the events uh and in the 10 days since 107 in the terrorist attack that occurred in Israel I skipped last week I was too emotional to do the show just so folks know it was uh difficult to see what I saw on the
internet and the reporting I think I was really moved because I thought a lot about the like how lucky we are and like my I thought about my children and seeing what I saw and being a parent um it's really different I remember 911 it was really shocking I was really upset from 911 as well but when I saw the events last
week it it immediately projected onto my kids and the uh care I try and take for my kids and thinking about the experience of other people in this situation I I was also I'll be honest really moved and saddened because of the bombing of children in Gaza and I was really saddened that there were innocent children suffering there as
well and the whole thing just felt so horrific to me I I don't think about the justification or the morality of one side over another I I was just more moved because I I felt really sad about the experience of a lot of families and a lot of children caught in the middle caught in this in this environment so I
was I was pretty hurt last week I was in a really bad State and I couldn't do the show I think you know time has allowed me to kind of become a bit rational about things and try to understand where things are headed and it's a really complicated confusing situation and it's really sad I I worry a lot about where
things are headed not just in the Middle East but also domestically coming out of this conflict so that's where I'm at yeah thank you for sharing I wasn't sure if you would share um your absence last week and I think it's fair I too have been thinking about my own children and it's uh and 911 and and it's it's very
dark yeah and so it's hard to talk about but we're we're making progress here I think and uh today we we'll talk about a lot of the issues chth or saxs any uh opening thoughts before we get started uh delving into what's actually happening and then more importantly I think where this is heading and what the possible outcome or resolution could be
if there is a resolution here I think things are getting better actually I think from where if if you had to graph your expectations of how bad things could get I think what most people would probably say is somewhere last week there was a scepter of some potential World War III like contagion and I think in
general it hasn't stopped some of the Bloodshed but the extent to which we expected this thing to escalate it actually hasn't happened and so if you take a step back and you kind of calmly and coldly look at the facts I think that there are a lot of people on all sides trying to maintain their composure in a moment where there's a lot
of brush fires so I actually think that this has been much much better than it could have been and so I'm generally optimistic that we're going to find our way out of this so uh saaks any thoughts as we well to be honest I can't be as optimistic as tth it's true that World War III hasn't started yet but I think the situation is
incredibly volatile still just the last couple of days the headline story was an explosion or bombing of this Hospital in Gaza blame immediately fell on Israel the claim in the New York Times was that they had Dropped a Bomb on it from a plane so media was a flame with that I think in the last day or so the
perspective seems to be changing there's video now showing that it wasn't the hospital but rather the parking lot next to the hospital that took the brunt to the damage I think that it's far from clear that Israel did it a lot of people are blaming Islamic Jihad in any event it's very unclear so I'm going to continue to
do what I've done which is suspend judgment until there can be some sort of proper investigation of of what happened and we find out exactly who's really responsible but it does seem that over the last day or so there's been now a backing off of the idea that Israel was definitely responsible for this
nonetheless you saw immediately in the wake of that Story coming out that there were protests and riots all over the Middle East the Arab Street was absolutely ignited and I think that the Arab Street's not going to be convinced that Israel wasn't responsible for this I just think that they're convinced and
I think partisans on both sides are convinced about who did it and they're going to be immune to whatever evidence comes out so I think that's kind of the situation we're at right now I would consider the the riots that we just saw in regards to the hospital and the eruption on social media to be a a Prelude or dress rehearsal of what we
can expect to happen almost every day if Israel proceeds with the ground invasion of Gaza now they haven't done that yet and that's why the situation seems tenuous but stable but we're still waiting to find out if Israel is going to go into Gaza and if they do I think all bets are off in terms of where this
is going this was my biggest concern last week I um I think the thing I was most anxious about was that the imagery that would come out of Gaza with the action from Israel would be the F for escalation worldwide that there's this perception already with half a billion people maybe two billion people maybe more that there's an oppressor and
there's an oppressed and the oppressed is suffering under the oppressor and that there would be the creation of fodder to support that narrative and I think that the hospital bombing the kind of point I made to someone who reached out to me two days ago or yesterday about it was I don't know if it matters that we get the corrections
from all these people that may have said something that turns out to not be true because it was almost like that media became confirmation bias for people that already felt that this is what was going on and this is simply evidence of what is going on and it justifies the next step it it jus the beliefs it
justifies the morality and I don't think that if it if it wasn't this it's some it's going to be something else there is a Tinder Box ready to be lit and that Tinder Box is just looking for a match and whether it's this match or the next match there's going to be a match and the Tinder Box will be lit I think that a
large number of people feel like they're on the right side everyone thinks they're on the right side of something everyone feels like they have the right moral stand that there is a regime on the other side that has the wrong moral stance I am good you are evil and therefore anything I see is my confirmation bias for my belief and
it'll it gives me permission to take the next step and in that framework it will only escalate and we are only going to a dark place and I think the the real question for me to chim's optimism is what are the muting factors what are the factors where one side feels like they're getting something that forces
them to say I'm not going to take the next step I'm not going to justify the next step and it's a it's a really hard question to answer at this stage look let's let's take that other side and just explore it for a second so the question that I've been asking myself is and because I agree with you it doesn't matter who was responsible
for this bombing because it's already been defined yeah but in a moral sense it does just no no in a moral sense it does but saying practically in the theater of war and the theaters near the war it doesn't matter because it's about how is it framed and to your point people have already made up their minds the pro-israel side have made up
their mind and the pro Palestinian side has made up their mind but the question that I ask myself is okay is that how much of an incremental escalation is it from what their status quo is you know one of the interesting things I learned from the Jared Kushner interview with Lex fredman it's like a lot of this
tension you can trace back to the alaxa mosque and all of the misinformation around that right he spends a a section of that podcast talking about how that's been framed and reframed the Miss and disinformation to basically get people fervently up in arms and it turns out that it is isn't under the supervision
of the Israelis and in fact you know you can go get a visa to visit alaxa mosque and it's under the custodian ship of the King of Jordan as an example so that is the fact but those facts aren't necessarily shared on the ground and that is where a lot of this original tension comes from so then I ask myself
okay well if that's been lingering for decades how much more incrementally bad does it get for this specific thing and I think you see it in people's actions which is they try to use it to escalate and my honest measurement of that escalation is that outside of the actual theater of war most of these escalations died down
pretty quickly now if all of these embassies were overrun and all of a sudden you saw a Beirut like situation right the US Embassy in Beirut in the early ' 80s I would agree with you that this is getting really bad really quickly but that's not what we saw and I think what that speaks to more is how much
hatred is actually in the heart of people versus not and so I think that this was a moment for people to channel their anxiety and some of their aggression and some of their hatred towards America or Israel but what it didn't was escalate you didn't see these embassies get burned to the ground you didn't see people getting
dragged out and so I'm not trying to justify that behavior I'm just is trying to look at it in an absolute sense and answer the question is it escalating or is it not escalating and my assessment right now is that it is not escalating I saw on Sunday something that I thought I would never see which is Iran put out a press
release through the United Nations to Israel you haven't seen that that's de-escalatory that's not an escalatory action from a country whose mission statement includes the destruction and Dem eyes of a country so I think when push comes to shove there are a lot of people in positions of power who understand the
stakes here and are trying their best on both sides and I I hate this word so I can't even believe I'm about to use it to find some proportionality and try to deescalate that's how I measure and judge what I see over the last week a lot of people use labels to characterize the actions the tonality the behavior of
the other side because every everyone believes that they're on the right side and the point of view that there is hate and anger on the other side comes from a place not out of the blue hate and anger doesn't just emerge from nothing it it typically comes from a place of deep hurt I think the biggest question for me
is how do you resolve the Deep hurt that is being felt and has been felt by either side over a very long period of time it's the hardest thing to answer because what do you give millions of people that have lived feeling hurt for so long feeling challenged for so long that makes them feel resolved in that sense and I get that speaking about
the Palestinian people I'm speaking about the Israeli people too okay and I'm I'm speaking about the fact that like these actions don't they don't come out the blue they don't come out of a place of like GRE let's go to an example in our own lives let's just say that we have a friend or you know we had a girlfriend
at some point where there is a deep betrayal okay and then there's just an unrelenting anger to your point before you can talk about the hurt you have to deescalate the anger so there has to be an active process of deescalation before you can actually resolve this stuff I thought Israel was quite clear last week we are
going into Gaza on Sunday but then they didn't that seemed de-escalatory again I'll just say it again Iran puts out a press release to Israel through the UN that seemed de-escalatory there was a moment where Jordan the Palestinian Authority and Biden were supposed to meet they ended up not meeting in Aman but that seemed
escalatory Biden Tony blink Tony refused to leave the IDF until he got some insurances about humanitarian Aid into Gaza that seems de-escalatory Biden spending time and then reiterating those assurances from Netanyahu again all of this stuff seems like both sides are in the middle of all of this chaos not trying to light the
Tinder Box and it doesn't mean that they're on a path to resolution but I I I just think that they they understand the stakes facts when we look at the hospital situation specifically and the fog of War you had the New York Times getting attacked for maybe taking hamas's word for it then flipping and
then now there is conspiracy theory the United States is you know carrying water for Israel and then the fog of War oh my goodness we maybe the the hospital wasn't even hit it was in the it was in the parking lot and so it it didn't even get hit so when we look at all of that and then shamad says hey wait things
haven't escalated I I actually I happen to be here in Dubai right now on a business trip and I'll explain some of uh the feedback I've gotten from people who are Palestinian uh ethnically or Jordanian and of Palestinian descent I should say and and we'll get into that in the second the ground war hasn't happened and this seems to be one of the
as jamaat is pointing out it's fascinating that it hasn't because it was supposed to have happened already do you have any thoughts on why it hasn't happened one of the conspiracy theories and and I hate to go down these roads because in the fog of War I think people try to fill a vacuum and then of course
as you were pointing out your mouth in freeberg people then use it as evidence for their side the people here in Dubai a number of people have pointed out this uh ground war is not going to happen that it's saber rattling but uh Israel is going to back back down and get the hostages back and this has been told to
me by many people and I don't know if that's wishful thinking or some kind of conspiracy theory but but what do you take from the ground war not happening and then if you want to go back and touch on the fog of War issue here with things flipping back and forth and and what is actual reality and just broadly
speaking escalating or de-escalating facts look I think that there's a few possible reasons why Israel hasn't gone in yet number one is they may perceive it to be a very difficult military opper operation they're almost certainly walking into a trap there's going to be ambushes everywhere snipers IEDs Hamas has an elaborate tunnel
Network they can disappear down that tunnel Network when the fighting gets too hot they can booby trap the access points they've got anti-tank weapons they can take out armored vehicles it's going to be a very difficult fight for the Israelis and so they may be taking a pause here just to assess that situation
and maybe get organized for it or or maybe think better of it so they may be either stopping to organize or getting cold feet I think second they have to think through the consequences of going in there Hezbollah has basically threatened to open up a northern front and invade Israel if Israel goes into Gaza you also saw as we saw at the
reaction to the hospital uh bombing that they have be concerned about the Arab Street erupting and again if they go into Gaza this could ignite the whole Arab world it seems to me that if you're Israel you don't want to become the focal point for all of this anger in the Arab or larger Muslim World there are
important differences in that world there's differences between sunnis and Shiite there's differences between Arabs and Persians and Turks and the last thing you want is to paper over all those differences by having everybody's anger targeted at you so I think there's very big consequences that could follow
geopolitically I think again the war would almost certainly not just be a single front war against Gaza it could turn into multi-front war so that's I think the second reason I think the third reason is you have to believe that there's Furious diplomacy going on behind the scenes and I think this is what chamath is referring to what we
don't know obviously or the the content of those conversations we don't know what the B Administration has told the Netanyahu government we don't know if they've said to to them listen we are not going to get involved in this publicly they've said that we stand with Israel but you just have to wonder what
they're privately telling the Israelis all of that being said I think that Israel has declared that it's at war with Hamas there are these stories that are coming out daily of these atrocities that were perpetrated by Hamas I saw one by paramedics who discovered the bodies and described the way they were tortured
the population of Israel demands retribution and so Netanyahu is under intense domestic political pressure to deliver on that so I I think that jamaath is right that things haven't escalated yet but I wouldn't say they've de-escalated blinkin did demand and Biden did announce those uh relieving of some of the humanitarian issues in Gaza but to
my knowledge they have not been implemented yet they turned the water back on I believe yeah okay so I think this thing is still a powder keg and it could erupt and again it all comes back to this key question of does Israel go into to Gaza or not if they don't then I think that creates room for some sort of
international diplomatic effort to get the hostages back and maybe deescalate the situation and I guess we'll find out over the next week or so and that you didn't even mention that there could be some deep diplomacy here going on in terms of releasing the hostages and maybe somehow they believe if they go in too
early the chances of getting those hostages out alive could be seriously diminished yeah you know it's strange to me that I just don't hear that much about the hostages it it seems like the Israeli population just in terms of what they're publicly saying seems to have almost written off the hostages there was some video of the families of the
hostages being upset that they don't feel like the government response is adequately taking the interests of their families into account that they just seem hellbent on this invasion of Gaza but you know we don't know what's happening behind the scenes and again that that would be the way to deescalate this is you get an
international effort to release the hostages in exchange for maybe it can't be stated but quit Pro quot where Israel does not go into to Gaza on the ground and and maybe the bombing stops yeah okay so maybe we can pivot discussion here to I I will say let me make one other point here delving into the
internal politics of another country is not something that we typically like to do or that Americans are particularly good at but when a situation like this happens that could drag us into a war we do have to kind of understand the internal dynamics of these countries Israel is a country that for the last
several years has been very internally divided there's been something like five elections in the last four years Netanyahu got reelected in December of 2022 by creating a new Coalition with farri elements of the Israeli political system and jamath you mentioned the alaxa mosque and I and I know Jared's take on
on this was he thought that this was blown out of proportion but I'll give you a different perspective on this I've just been researching this if you read Al jazer what they point to is a the emergence of a far-right figure named immar Ben gavier who has become a member of netanyahu's government as a result of
this Coalition that was forged in December and benir has been he previously he was a a fringe sort of anti- Palestinian far-right provocator when he was 19 years old he basically had somehow stolen or taken the hood ornament from Yak rine the then prime minister's car and was waving it around saying that if we can get to your car we
can get to you three weeks later Yak bbin was assassinated by a far-right religious extremist in is Israel because they felt that he had committed treason by signing the oso Accords now benav wasn't implicated himself but it gives you a sense of kind of where he's coming from and benav has led over the past
year several incursions into the AL oxa mosque area and the reason he said he's done this is to show that the AL oxa mosque and the do of the rock near the Haram al- Sharif which is the third holiest site in Islam after Mecca Medina he says that that is under the sovereignty of Israel that that belongs to Israel there is also a
faction of the Israeli far right that wants to build the Third Temple on the Temple Mount you have to understand that that cannot happen while the alox of mosque is still there so you have these I don't mind saying phrases I mean to to to destroy or even to imply that you would ever destroy the aloa mosque is
such an explosive issue it would turn the entire Muslim World against Israel and basically I think it would be the end of Israel but you have these figures who've now been incorporated into netanyahu's cabinet and I they are I think far to the right of Netanyahu but they are pressuring Netanyahu they are seem to be banging for some sort of
religious War so you know the domestic politics of another country is not something that we're totally familiar with but you have to understand that Israel does have these elements and man I hope that the Biden Administration is telling Netanyahu that yeah we stand with Israel but not if you're going to follow the advice of
these far-right religious extremists this is um I think a very important point to to pause on here and maybe unpack which is uh as I said I'm I'm here in Dubai and had this trip planned and um actually tell us what you're what you're hearing what are you hearing what do they what do people say yeah it's
fascinating um and it's this is going to get a little touch and so I just want to be clear I'm going to tell people what the conversations are here it's not necessarily me endorsing any of these positions and again I'm no expert of course and on Saturday night I went to abot Mitzvah my friends um daughters had their bot
Mitzvah and uh and Tuesday night I had dinner sorry Where in Israel or no in the Bay Area and then flew here and the struck a position where I had dinner last night with five Jordans who are of pal Ian descent uh and they universally are appalled by Hamas and they're what happened right so just say that right out
front and then they are perplexed why there is no discussion in the West in America of the conditions that could have led to this and the treatment of the Palestinian people who they believe are living in apartheid and that word is used over and over again and that they have you know now a generation of people
who have no hope and a generation of people who have nothing to lose and that they they have nothing to live for and this is uh the piece of the discussion that has gotten a lot of people in the west I think in trouble talking about it we had a conference producer who uh was tweeting Hey listen you know very early on like on the on
107 Israel has to abide by you know international law Etc and and this came up over and over again from Muslims here in Dubai that the West is not and in the Free World is not holding Israel accountable to Human Rights standards basic standard tenants of war and I was coming into the trip a little bit more positive and now there's
such a deep hurt on both sides of this that I I got to see you know from from both of these events and people suffering that I um my normally positive outlook has been a little bit shaken if I'm being honest this feels very intractable to me and uh yeah to even going near the topic of what has Israel contributed to
this situation and in the treatment of the Palestinian people that's what the people in the region want to hear us talk about or just hear the world talk about any reaction to some of the protests that happened in Europe and the people that took to the streets what what was their perspective on that I
think perspective is a very small percentage of Americans care about the Palestinian people and you know if you look at the surveys that have gone on and I have some of the the survey data that's been done and I'm not sure Americans views on this are the most important views for us to be focused on but a very small percentage of people
are aligned um with the Palestinian people as opposed to with the state of Israel so well I mean the biggest challenge in finding a towards I don't want to just be so generic and say the word peace no I think that's the word yeah but towards some form of understanding and settlement with with each other is that
there's a framing right now that you have to pick a side you're not allowed to be pro-israel and also be sympathetic and empathetic to the plight of the children in Gaza you're not allowed to say I'm looking out for the Palestinians but I believe Israel should have a state you're not allowed to point out the fact that there are multiple
Muslim majority countries and there's only one Jewish State while also saying that what the Israelis have done may also not be right you're not allowed to take a nuanced point of view and you're not allowed to address the variance in Behavior over time with each of these different sides and how there is a
massive complicated mess here that it has to be pick your side you're pro-israeli we need to wipe out X Y or Z or you're anti-israeli and as a result you're anti-semite and the fact that we conflate all of these things together and force people to jump on a side is what is also escalating that we can't actually have conversations around these
topics that it all ends up being pick aide and then let's figure out how many people and what resources are on one side and what people and what resources are on the other and I think that this notion that we have almost a cancel culture Behavior that's now leeched into this discourse that if you try and talk about the plight of
Palestinians you cannot also be pro-israel is what's keeping us from making progress in finding a path to resolution and I I think that's the the biggest issue right now and we Leverage The you're not a loyalist you're not moral you're not a good person you're evil if you don't stand on our side and both sides are act
that way and it's that's the hardest thing to change it's I think the only way to find a path is to change that first and I think starting with empathy is the only way but man that's impossible right now [ __ ] impossible yeah it's hard sorry now I'm sorry I'm just I'm just super like w I'm super emotional about this
because I just don't like the like you know so there are broadly speaking two factions that we're seeing out in the streets either denouncing Israel or supporting the Palestinians I think there is a group of people who genuinely hate Jews or hate Israel and do not believe in Israel's right to exist and are preaching things like decolonization
which is a recipe for for genocide then there are people and probably a larger group who I think are concerned with the plight of the Palestinian people who recognize the conditions they have is deplorable and that the tactics that Israel uses to enforce its security whether it's the occupation of the West
Bank or the blockade of Gaza are unsustainable and create unfair conditions for the Palestinians so in other words they're not saying that Israel doesn't have a right to exist they are principally concerned with helping the Palestinians in achieving a Palestinian state it seems to me of Paramount importance that Israel
separate these two groups by understanding the concern and I would apply this to American leadership as well by understanding the concerns of the latter and hopefully getting us on a path to resolving them totally so as to isolate the haters totally because otherwise this whole thing is headed towards a gigantic
disaster where and I I think it's a disaster for for Israel most of all is that Israel could be destroyed but I think think the whole world is being asked to pick a side too and that's where this escalates into a much bigger broader conflict it's it's that yeah and the country and even within the us we're
being asked to pick a side and now we're seeing civil unrest in the US the frustration as well amongst people who are of who who are Muslim or who are Palestinian descent or Jordanian or just in the region generally is that Hamas set this process back decades and there's like a great frustration that maybe some progress was being made and
that we could come to some normaly in a two-state solution and that Hamas did this exactly because so much progress has been made uh recently I think that is the best theory about why this happened now is that there was a process of normalization happening between Israel and a number of these Arab states and
and we talked about it last week that jerro Kushner set this in motion there were three or four deals that were signed between Israel and the gulf Arab states uh bringing about normal relations and Saudi Arabia was on the table as being the next one there was a effort underway to negotiate a normalization of of relations between
Israel and and Saudi Arabia that is now completely on ice and at risk of the other agreements maybe being ripped up because if Israel goes in and has a massive ground Invasion and there's more suffering and death that that will maybe blow all those Accords up I think that what Hamas may have been concerned about
extent you want to impute strategic logic to their decisions even you know those decisions are atrocities but if they have a strategic purpose in mind it's to derail yeah that that process of normalization because if the entire Arab world basically normalizes relations with Israel before the Palestinian
question is resolved it takes a major carrot off the table in their negotiations or whatever they want to achieve so I think that to thwart that process was a big part of the goal here but I do think that what this has shown is that getting to a larger Middle East piece without resolving the Palestinian question is likely to be a failed
strategy I just don't it's impossible it's impossible and so impossible again this does not justify anything Hamas did but I think that what these events have now created is a dynamic where the Palestinian question is now front and center and and everything else is basically paused until this gets resolved now I just want
to say something about the two-state process you know again I was doing some some research there really hasn't been any work on the two-state solution for roughly a decade Obama was the last president who tried he explicitly said that Israel should try to make peace based on the 1967 lines but with land
swaps to accommodate for the changes that have happened on the map since then Netanyahu was very high rate at that formulation by by the way he never had a good relationship with with Obama because of that and then John KY who secretary under State under Obama made a major effort to try and bring about a two-state solution and frankly it went
nowhere and a big part of the reason why is that Netanyahu said that listen the only situation that's acceptable to Israel from a security standpoint is that we must control all security west of the Jordan River so in other words we must control security in the West Bank and his argument was that look adjacent
land is very important if you create a Palestinian State there where they have total sovereignty over their own security they could be digging tunnels under the wall he basically said it could turn into 20 gazes and he's got his point of view and and when people challenged him on this he said listen
you don't live here you know we live here we understand the security situation that's what he said to John Cary so the whole process fell apart and since then the idea has been for Israel to move forward again on this larger normalization project with the rest of the Middle East putting the Palestinian question to one side the idea has
basically been listen if you won't make peace with us and this goes back to Arafat at Camp David turning down the deal that was on the table that Clinton brokered with Ood Barack if you won't make a deal with us we'll just go around you you're too rejectionist you're too difficult you're too hard to make a deal
with so we're just going to put that to one side and that really has been the process for the last decade I would say since John K's initiative fell apart the process has been starting with kushan under Trump and then I think Biden tried to extend it by brokering the Saudi Arabia deal the idea was let's put the
Palestinian question to one side we'll work on these other deals I think now that that process has fallen apart so the two-state solution that process died back in 2014 this idea of going around has basically falling apart now and so I think this is why people are pretty pessimistic about where things go from
here is what is the process and meanwhile you have this hard shift inside Israeli domestic politics to the right you've got these religious factions who believe that the entirety of the West Bank what they call Judea and Samaria is their god-given right and if you go back to the netanyahu's government forming in December of 2022
the first plank was to say that Judea and Samaria belong to us we have sovereignty over them we're not giving them up so what room is there for compromise and since then they've been expanding the settlements in the West Bank let me ask you a question just to shift the question for a second the thing that surprised me the most over
this past week were the extent of the protests some violent in the United States and in Western Europe and I'm curious to hear from you guys was that overwhelmingly about Pro Palestine and making sure that there wasn't a human rights atrocity in Gaza or was that a emergence of like a simmering anti-Semitism that we hadn't
seen well both that that's kind of my point is there's type one and type two type one is the true hatred it's the denial of the Israeli right to exist however there's a type two which is legitimate concern over the condition of the Palestinians and the desire to resolve that by creating a Palestinian
State and until you separate those two things you're never going to make progress your type two can breed a type one is the real scary reality the simmering anti-Semitism that you can have a legitimate concern about the people of Palestine because you always are going to be concerned about the oppressed being oppressed by the oppressor and
that then translates into an anti-Semitism because you say that it's the Jewish people that are perpetrating this upon those people therefore the Jewish people need to go and I've heard friends of mine in the last week who have said awful things like all Muslims need to go well-known well-respected public people have said this to me in
private I can see where the hatred can come from a place of hurt I can see that when people feel sympathetic towards the Palestinian plight they can then turn into anti-Semitism and so I I I do think that there are two distinct groups today but my concern is that just like what happened in the past that that can then
breed into a more generalized more fiery and more scary situation where it really is anti something genocidal on both sides by the way I think what we're describing here is a classic vicious cycle where you start with there's conditions of occupation that breeds resistance that breeds extremism extremism breeds fear on the
part of Israelis because they get attacked and then that breeds harsher security conditions the next level of occupation or blockade and then that the C yeah and so the the question is how you break that cycle because the Israelis right now and I'm I'm sure netan would make this point if we open
things up if we gave you a Palestinian State what's to stop 30,000 Hamas Fighters if we opened up the walls around Gaza what's to stop 30,000 Hamas fighters from Ming us in our homes and if you do a ground Invasion are you inspiring more radicalization and so for every person you kill they've got Brothers they've
got sisters they've got parents they've got kids they've got aunts and uncles and they become the next generation of extremists how does the cycle break I think is the frustrating part here and just looking at the reaction in the US um we saw a lot of discussion over young students writing arguments that Israel had brought this on
themselves and were solely responsible for the Hamas attack um and this has led to a massive outrage amongst donors to uh Ivy League schools like Penn and Harvard and obviously those have very large endowments and and this is now I leading to many of them pulling out of commitments they've made um the Wexner
Foundation founded by Victoria Secrets billionaire said it's breaking off ties with Harvard Edon ofur quit the Executive Board of Harvard's Kennedy School citadels Ken Griffin uh who's donated more than half a billion dollars to Harvard plac a call week last week to the head of Harvard and asked the university to come out in support of
Israel and then more than a dozen Anonymous donors told the New York Times they felt they had a right and an obligation to to weigh in here and before this all happened at Penn donors had started pulling out because of a Palestinian rights Festival that happened two weeks before the events of 107 from September 22nd to 24th upan
hosted the Palestine rights literature Festival the festival was buil as a gathering to explore the richness and diversity of Palestinian culture but according to multiple sources in mostly focused on Jews Israel and Zionism one speaker called for ethnic cleansing of Jews another said violence was a
necessity any thoughts chath we were talking last week about these woke madrasas and then I guess this is the second order and third order effects coming into play if you said it more generically this would be a perfect opportunity for these leading universities to actually provide nuance and teach people the history of both sides and to
show the perspective of both sides that would take leadership yeah it would take courageous leadership on the part of the people who run the university let's just be honest I think these Elite universities are essentially asset management businesses that have an education the Fig Leaf of Education wrapped around
them so they're more like Black Rock than they are like a school and so they behave like any for-profit asset manager would which is that I think that as they didn't try to intervene in one way or the other over the last 15 or 20 years in actually making sure that they were graduating the best kids so instead
what happened is they get hijacked by professors and people who wanted one very specific strain of thinking and I don't think it matters which strain it is but it betrays what the point of a leading University is supposed to be and then as a result the people that graduate from these places are close-minded and what that does is that
that screws America because you have all of these other places graduating kids with a different mindset who then go and build the things that matter and America just keeps falling back and we are just slower and we are not intellectually capable of thinking in a way that allows us to see more than just what's right in
front of us so I don't know what you want me to say it's it's just like these no I'm just it's a followup to what we talked about last week and so I I thought was pertinent Sachs uh looking at the Free Speech issue there was some push back online again not my position I'm just putting it out here for you to comment on saxs which is
blacklisting young college students who had an opinion about Palestine is wrong and you're trying to cancel people what's your response to holding people accountable or cancelling these students uh for their positions on the Israeli Palestinian conflict well what's happening now is that these campuses
that took outrageous positions on this whole issue are now trying to wrap themselves in the cloak of academic freedom as if that's a value they've been respecting free speech is not a value they've been respecting free speech is a value they've been imposing and this was uh revealed by a survey that was just done the fire survey that
surveyed students on 248 campuses on a range of free speech issues so it ask them about how comfortable do you feel expressing your views on controversial topics what is the Tolerance on campus for Liberal speakers or conservative speakers how acceptable is it to engage in disruptive conduct against a speaker
on campus such as shouting them down to prevent them from speaking what sort of administrative support do different views get on campus and how open is the campus to hearing about different issues and what they found was that the most elite schools ranked the worst the only elite private school to score above
average on Free Speech was University of Chicago which got a score of about 65 out of 100 which made them rank number 13 overall the rest of the top schools the IVs were abysmal Brown ranked number 69 Duke ranked 124 Princeton ranked 187 Stanford ranked 207 this is again out of a total number of uh 248 and Penn which is where the donors
are up and armed ranked second to last number two uh 247 they scored uh 11 points on the survey and then Harvard finished 248 out of 248 schools ranked also known as also known as dead last and get this the rating in the survey was 0.0 they scored a blue tarski 0.0 bluei in Animal House he scored 0.0 Harvard SC 0.0 Z
yes so so look I think it would be it would be one thing if these schools said to the alumni we agree with you that some of these speakers were over the toop but this is what academic freedom is all about but they have no standing to say anything like that because they have been suppressing views on campus
speakers to be sh down they have been stifling the presentation of alternative views so this is clearly these types of speakers these types of views that I think absolutely cross the line from again what we talked about which is type two support for legitimate support for a Palestinian State into hatred of Israel and Jews and
denying the right to exist it absolutely crossed over and many of these cases was a outrageous talk given by I think a Cornell professor who was was outright praising this Massacre Oh God that was disturbing so look it ised Cas yes he was excited yeah so look I I think that these alumni have a point in saying that
you these Elite campuses have been clearly putting your thumb on the scale in favor of certain views you've been suppressing certain views so this must be of you that you either share or endorse or permit give that the rest of your speech regime is so restrictive and oppressive so even though I would in a different circumstance support academic
freedom I don't think these colleges have a leg to stand on all right we're going to talk about some other topics today because that's what we do on the all-in podcast and so tangentially related to the speech issues in the EU officials held a meeting to discuss enforcement of the DSA or Digital
Services act uh for some background here the eu's digital Serv Service Act updated the eu's electronic Commerce directive of 2000 which was inspired by section 230 here in the US common carrier laws uh where the common carriers be those AOL Yahoo Google Facebook are not responsible for what individuals post on their platforms and
so that protection's been critically important not making social media sites or WordPress into editors or having them have to censor content on their platform so the DSA officially went into effect in August of this year the main goal was to quote unquote Foster safer online environments the DSA aims to do that via tighter rules around
disinformation illegal content and transparent advertising those last two not controversial that first one disinformation is obviously the one that's going to be pretty uh challenging the DSA has been called a new constitution of the internet and an effort to shape the future of the online online World some things the
DSA covers it forces vops a new term very large online platforms disclose how their algorithms work they must give users the right to opt out of recommendation systems and profiling they must share key data with researchers and authorities they must cooperate with crisis response requirements and they must perform
external and internal audits they want to force transparency on how content moderation decisions are made that seems logical they want to force transparency uh on the ways advertising is targeted that also seems reasonable and then they want ways to flag illegal content obviously obligations uh around uh protecting
minors I don't think anybody will debate those but it forces them to cooperate with specialized trusted flaggers to identify and remove this illegal content I don't know who those people would be freeberg you had some thoughts my thoughts are that the era of the open internet as a decentralized technology platform for the benefit of
individuals and not to be overseen and run by governments is over the Digital Services act I think is one of the most overreaching threats to any sort of open transparent Democratic opportunity on the internet the idea of the open internet the idea of creating a network of Compu that could share information and make
services available to individuals around the world freely uncensored and in an easy to access way was the reason that the internet has transformed Society improved productivity and provided extraordinary benefits the Digital Services Act is an example of a government seeing that a decentralized technology the internet
itself is is meant to be a decentralized technology there's no Central servers they are all part of a network of computers that anyone on the network can access anything else on the network blockchain obviously is the more modern kind of exciting you know decentralized technology concept that is meant to avoid the scrutiny the oversight and the
control by Central governments or or Central authorities of any sort and the language in the Digital Services act I think got squeezed through in a way that most of the people that I'm guessing passed this Digital Services act don't fully comprehend the implications of some of the decisions that they're making it can be easily
framed as this is good for people you cannot sell illegal content online you cannot sell illegal goods and services we're trying to safeguard young people but the protection of minors means that you can no longer do personalized web experiences for anyone under 18 which means you need to know the age of
everyone and now your web experience if you're a kid is not going to be personalized the overreach gets even worse when they say we can now go in and run evaluations of the algorithms and allow open access to your data to thirdparty researchers to get into your systems and look at how you guys are running the
services that you're offering on the internet so not only are you no longer allowed to have an open internet where people can provide whatever Services they want to provide but if you're on the internet you now have to make your service and the inside part of your service available foru by governments and so you have and
researchers who are these researchers sounds like a stazzy type the way it's written it gives this commission as the primary regulator effectively a lot of leeway in deciding who what where and how they can go into companies go into individual servers individual computers I could run an individual company on my
computer at home and it gives this government the legal right in the EU to go into my computer and pull information out of of my computer and scrutinize it and make decisions about what I'm doing and whether or not I'm compliant with whatever the commission's enforcement standards are of that day I mean this is
about as 1984 as you can get and it's a real serious threat I don't think people are recognizing the second and third order effects of what this is going to do over time to internet services to the quality of experience we get on the internet and to the role that government is now going to play in policing scrutinizing and providing restricted
access to content and service for each individual that wants to use the internet but it's important to say if you're a European it'll just make Europe even more of a place you go to vacation and never to live yeah right I mean it's not this we're not talking about America right we're talking about Europe this is
all the changes that are going to happen inside of Google which is going to affect more than just the EU users because of the requests and the demands of the EU and so you know the the services that you are going to get around the world are going to be affected by this EU compliance regime and it's going to be dynamic it's a
commission basically a bunch of individuals that get to decide who what where and how that's right and that's going to that's going to create a really scary scary situation where a bunch of people who are going to have their own motivations their own political leanings their own objectives they're going to be
able to leverage their particular role in applying their particular biases to internet services we saw Canada do something similar and Facebook's reaction and Facebook's reaction was we're not going to Syndicate links so I don't know I I would go back to another argument you make a lot which is which I agree with which is the free market will
act rationally here and if Google deprecates a bunch of features and or completely pulls out of Europe that'll be the death Nowell for these kinds of decisions because then other governments and other people will see the cost of trying to get this kind of control I think the bigger issue in A Moment Like
This is Europe has such a checkered passed on these things which is that they somehow try to find this moral High ground and there is just this overreach and this quasi Central planning that just never works and so if this is another example of it I would encourage all for-profit companies to make the practical decision oh can you
imagine Google's decision making here they've got thousands of employees in Europe they make billions of dollars in Revenue in the market it's such a difficult situation to be in not if what you're saying is true not if what you're saying is this is the threat of the internet I think it'll be very easy for
Larry and Sergey to say cut it move on no I I Europe is too big a market for Google or any other major tech company to exit there's just no way what they're going to do is comply there won't be a market well hold on a second what this new DSA rule does is apply penalties to social networks for not censoring what
they call legal speech which is whatever speech they say it is so freeberg is right there's going to be some sort of committee Brussels that basically sends out takedown requests now to all these social networks yeah it's the DSA commission yeah the DSA commission so yeah Europe again is just too big an area not to serve and then what could
happen is that because it's easier for companies just to have one approach where they can there is a risk that these same policies get applied in the US that is what happened with privacy remember Europe went first with gdpr and then a lot of those regulations came to America now the First Amendment May
stand in the way here but there is some risk that tech companies of their own accord decide that it's cheaper and easier to comply with the European regime everywhere than trying to parse their service in different markets I'm just saying that's a risk but look let me frame it in a different way in an economic argument okay
so Europe is about 25 cents of every dollar of Revenue that Google generates okay so if you think about that that's call it 60 odd billion dollar a year plus or minus okay so the the question is at what point is the cost of trying to get 60 billion so great that you say it's not worth the 60 billion and my
point is that there there is an economic rational argument here for it if it costs for example 10 or 20 billion dollars to implement this stuff that's probably the efficient Frontier where when you factor in multiple compression and you factor in Behavior change in Europe which may actually degrade the 60 billion to 50 or
40 where you just throw your hands up and say it's just not economically worth it you've seen these actors make this trade-off in Canada it's not totally unreasonable that they run a model to figure out the cost maybe they just take the perspective that whenever this DSA commission sends us a takedown request
we're just going to do it instantly why wouldn't that just become the norm in fact I'm pretty sure that's what they'll do the management of most these companies really at all of them except for Elon they don't really care they they have the same biases yeah they're they don't care about free spe really they're not Founders they don't care
about that Free Speech moreover they have a lot of the same political biases that these I'm not supporting the DSA all I'm saying is I think that economic rational actors will do the right thing here I think the most likely outcome is that tech companies will be craving and they'll fold and they'll just do
whatever these EU Commissioners want which then could be an opportunity for you know distributed blockchain you know yeah I me it's hard to scale them but I the devil's in the details yeah or and you guys feel this every day like Jason you know you're right now in the UAE you can communicate in certain ways through
WhatsApp you can't communicate in other ways through iMessage there are just rules of usability on products and they exist all around the world if you go to India there's certain apps that are blocked and certain apps that are not and so maybe that's just what happens where there is just a gradient of user
experiences around the world for people and we all deal with it yeah and we don't know exactly how heavy-handed they're going to be here this is by definition heavy-handed I I don't agree with it but hold on we don't know what this is the problem with how they've done this this is all being done in a Star Chamber we don't have any insight
into what kind of content they want to take down if it's obviously abusive content fine but if it's you know coid information or misinformation obviously there's going to be a problem uh that we saw here in the United States just so people know resp yeah okay look them way too much credit J Cal I'm not giving
them any credit I I do not want to see this happen I'm not giving them any credit I'm just saying we will see how heavy-handed they'll be you're assuming they're going to be super heavy-handed we'll see and we'll see what their what their own citizens respond I think the fact that a room full of Commissioners
in the U can send takedown requests to social media companies is by definition heavy-handed let me back up what the Twitter file showed okay is that we had 80 FBI agents being the conduit it for takeown requests to Twitter and presumably other social networks well no no but that was all on the DL on the DL
exactly that was notw and yes moreover when they did that in their takedown requests they would always point to well this tweet violates your terms of service okay what the EU is doing is different they're actually defining the terms of service they're saying that your terms of service need to do X Y and Z they're doing it explicitly this is
not on the DL they're exp they're to what we say it and when we you to take something down you're going do it they Haven defined what that is that's I think the issue is where where is the actual definition of what's going to happen here and that's why it's hard for us to have a discussion about this is
because we don't know what they're talking about with this content that's whatever they say in the future is disinformation needs to be taken down that's the framework the fine is going to be up to 6% of global revenue for companies that do not comply so the EU has also figured out that speeding tickets don't work and they're looking
to give pretty heavy penalties so we'll see uh this is uh um a moving Target here we don't have complete information but yeah it's not a moving Target we do have complete information this is a censorship regime Jason we just don't know what their term for illegal or problematic content this year and again I don't want I don't want to
be pitted as your adversary here I I am not in of this so we're clear but and I don't think there should be a Star Chamber where people get to pick what goes up and what goes down there I think the private companies can do a good enough job there and there should be freedom of speech and yeah you're going
to see some things you don't like yeah grow up turn change the T if you don't like it it basically as they say sets a horizontal rule covering all services and all types of illegal content and disinformation illegal content could be fun right freeberg like illegal content putting boxing somebody child pornography illegal content I think we
would all be okay with it's the disinformation part right I'm not trying to be okay or not okay I'm just saying that like you're basically saying that whatever the rules are that they come up with that may be different than somewhere else on the internet they get to then regulate other businesses on the
internet I think the internet should be open well and there are I don't want to have a commission approve what I write in my blog post I don't want the commission telling me that what I put on Twitter or put on my website is up to them to decide whether or not it's okay to put up because they think it's illegal because it has what they deem to
be misinformation right ex already laws that exist so disinformation illegal content two different things but those laws provide some authority to a commissioner I mean that's the problem right it's it's right look the problem is in the vagueness of this the the law says that social media companies have to
take down illegal content but it doesn't say what a legal content is it delegates the power to Define it to this group of eurocrats led by Theory Bretton and they're meeting this week to hammer it out so yeah look in practice legal content is going to be whatever they say it is that is explicit censorship okay
let's move on to our final topic second largest hype cycle of 2023 perhaps GOP 1es uh chamath you uh brought this up in our group chat so maybe you could Tee It Up well I was just interested in understanding everything that's been happening around GP mostly because it just seems like people think it's a Panacea we have a lot of our friends
Jason you were the one that said this in our poker group like four of the 12 or 13 regulars are on it is that right I think it was four of like yeah four of 12 people were on it yeah it was a third yeah and then and then I got this really interesting chart Nick you may want to put this up it basically
showed how the glp One Market was tracking very similar to the AI market in terms of the hype which is if you separated companies as a basket of people who were positively affected by gp1s like Lily and Novo Nordisk and you had a basket of companies that were disrupted by gp1s those would be like Dexcom or Dita or
folks like that it eerily mimics the same hype cycle around AI which is there's those businesses that seem to be feeding the hype train around Ai and then all of these companies that theoretically will be disrupted and it just brought up to me that there's this incredible market movement here where I
think people think that these gp1s are a solution to everything and I thought it was just an important thing to discuss because scientifically the mechanism of action is still a little questionable and murky on top of that I think we don't know physiologically what the real long-term ramifications of taking these things are
there's still a lot of mixed evidence around the total amount of weight loss you can lose the percentage of muscle versus fat that you lose and so yeah I just thought it was important for us to talk about it and see what this would be a a a baset spread trade here are the companies that win here are the
companies that loses and look at that gap between the two and it's exactly mimics people who would benefit from Ai and people would lose from AI yeah the gp1 hype the summary is the gp1 hype is as overextended as the AI hype cycle so we should probably separate the weed from the chaff and start by understanding what gp1s are because I'm
sure there's a lot of people in our listening Community who are on this stuff they should really probably understand well if that's where you think we should go next we should then throw it to the sultant of science himself David freeberg explained to us uh while we prepare our Uranus jokes GP ones these drugs have been around for a
while they're small peptides little proteins that bind to this glp receptor in your gut that causes insulin to be released from your pancreas and triggers a couple of other hormones that reduce your hunger and appetite so basically gets you to eat less and your brain and your brain and it's effectively a way to
make you feel not hungry and you you're you can run a calorie deficit and when you run a calorie deficit your body starts starving and starts burning other parts of your body besides the the glucose it can get out of the stomach where you would otherwise have food and ends up in your blood and it starts uh generating energy
from your stored body fat and your stored and your muscle mass so these have been around for a while Novo Nordisk is the a developer of two of the the main drugs and here's a a chart of Nova Nordisk stock price you can see that in the Last 5 Years their stock has 5x they've basically gone from you know call it a
$60 billion company to a $350 billion company in five years uh largely on the the back of the promise of this drug so these drugs have been around for a while and there's actually one that's been on the market for a long time but it only causes 5% body mass loss so 5% weight loss so people are like oh it's not that
great it didn't really get widely adopted then this new class they added a little side chain they added another little molecule to the peptide and as a result it didn't get degraded as fast and it was far more bioactive in the body and caused a much greater benefit and so suddenly people on these drugs started to see massive weight loss
massive Improvement diabetes and metabolic Health all moves together so as you burn body fat if you have less glucose in your blood your your your metabolic condition improves the problem is when you're starving normally if you were to just stop eating you would typically see that your body starts burning first of all the
glucose and then it burns off the the glycogen in your muscles which is the next energy store once that's gone your body starts burning fat and as it's burning more fat It also says hey I need to get these other molecules which I'm not getting just from the fat I need muscle and your body actually starts
burning muscle and that's how your brain gets energy that it needs when you're starving is actually primarily from the degradation of of muscle tissue H so normally if you're just starving yourself you'll see a ratio of weight loss where it's about 20% coming from lean muscle mass in some of the studies that have
been done on these gp1 agonists we're seeing up to 40% of the weight loss coming from lean muscle mass uh being burnt off so Jason I don't know if you've done a dexa scan because I think you you've said publicly that you've tried it right I mean you should check you should check out what your lean muscle mass is versus um your fat
composition in your body I don't know if you have it from before but I have yeah yeah and this has been one of the concerns obviously if you're not working out and you're not you know doing what you need to to eat protein and build muscle you're going to be burning through a lot of that muscle mass and so that's problem number one that's Arisen
that that people are concerned about the other one that's that's really I don't know if it's concerning or not but when people go off these drugs they gain the weight back in a very quick way and there's two reasons for this one is if you haven't actually changed your behavior you haven't changed your exercise
patterns and and you suddenly have the appetite suppressing drug taken out of your system you start eating more food again and when you've been in a state of starvation your metab your your metabolism your Baseline metabolism goes down so instead of burning on average 2,000 calories a day your body's only burning at 1,200 calories a day so
suddenly if you go back to eating 2,000 calories a day because you're not you're you know you no longer have the appetite suppressor have you're going to reinl and so so your metabolism goes down the appetite suppressant goes away and you gain all the weight back if you haven't changed your behavior otherwise
and so I don't know if guys saw this clip I sent out of Arnold Schwarz and AER talking with Howard Stern but he was talking about how like I can't do a Howard accent Jal you could probably do it really well but you know yeah one thing you what do you think of the OIC but you know how the OIC is you know
Americans used to be very interested in working hard and I don't know why that's so bad but you get up at 5:00 a.m. and you work hard and you do it and you make yourself strong right that's what it's about you don't need to do a little baby girl or Z Peck in your side oh look I'm going to eat less food thank you wait did you listen to the
clip is that is that what he said that's what he said exactly what he said that's exactly what he Saida man make this epic uh hard work that's why I say in in my book you know work work your ass off and because it's there's no shortcut what built this country is it people that SLE in is it people that were wh
out I want to I want to be comfortable no this were ballsy women and men that went out there at 5: in the morning and got up and they struggled and they fought and they worked their butts off that's what made this country great yeah he he he actually he said that in response to I think Howard st's questions about OIC the problem like
like we're basically creating a new multi-billion dollar pharmaceutical drug system that people are going to have to stay on in order to stay healthy do we know what the long-term effects of taking semaglutide are and can be and will be I mean these drugs have been around for quite a long time so you know
the there are various side effects but in terms of like are we debilitating our health over the long run you know it seems to be a reasonably safe drug and it seems to be a drug that that folks are are kind of recognizing as being well worth the cost and whatever the risks may be well what are the the implications you lose 40% well
it's about 16% of your weight loss you typically lose right I mean yeah they'll say up to 20% if you lose weight you'll usually see up to 20% of lean muscle mass of of the of the weight you lost coming from lean muscle mass loss and you know 80% or 85% as you say coming from from body fat loss but with the OIC drugs they're seeing as high as
40% coming from lean muscle mass which is obviously concerning I just made an adjustment I everybody knows I lost like 40 lbs or so or if you've talked to me for more than 5 minutes you know I have uh cuz I'll tell you and the first 20 was just fasting and doing keto and then when this drug came out I tried it I
tried OIC and then I did wovi and I lost next i'mna give you I didn't gain it back I I I gain back about four or five pounds and I also increased protein in the morning and I do a lot of walking okay so so let me give you this math and tell me if it maps to what you have felt or not so if 250 lb let's just say you
lose 16% of your body body weight that's 40 lb okay so you get to 190 oh sorry to 210 and of that you lose 16 pounds of muscle is that what you saw or did you see something less than that no much less muscle cuz I use weights and I do a lot of walking and I eat a ton of protein you're doing the exercise you're
doing the exercise I'm not doing hardcore exercise so but you have to do exercise you have you have exercise and the challenge jcal is that the vast majority of people that go on the drugs by the way I'm not saying the drugs shouldn't be adopted I think that there's extraordinary benefit health benefit to the majority of people that
are on these drugs but the downside is that if you're not exercising you are going to lose muscle mass and then obviously there is the fact that you're now hooked on this thing if you're not going to figure out ways to change Behavior I cycled off of it two or three times and had very minor weight gain
back three four five pounds but I deliberately changed my relationship with food portion size and I work out now and what I found was as I lost weight my my interest and the joy I got out of working out dramatically increased so running walking skiing everything got easier and I just got more into it so I like working out again
now that I'm 40 hot pounds 42 pounds off my Peak weight so I I I think it's an amazing wonder drve you sum points on this like a take on this like you think that these things are overhyped right now and we're just in the middle of a hype cycle or what's your key takeaway my key takeaway is that for many people
from a health perspective I think that it it could be a really great solution I think that these triple agonists that are coming out are going to be probably even more effective than these double agonists that that we have right now yeah I don't understand the triple monjaro is the triple Agonist yeah people who T monjaro told me it is
unbelievable how not hungry you are yeah it's super fast too super fast I I just want to see you know like for example when you know when you get older in your 60s and 70s one of the biggest risks you take on and in your 80s is actually like you know muscular skeletal and falls and things like that and one of the best
preventative measures for that is muscle mass and so you get into this weird Catch 22 of you replace one issue with another so longitudinally if you use it for a long time I'm concerned about that I do think that these gp1s if when we look back on it will probably be like Statin and in as much as when stattin
first came on the Market it was a wonder drug right and you know we were all teetering towards you know heart disease and heart attacks and all of this stuff and then once people got on these statins I think there was a very meaningful impact to the percentage of people that that suffered heart disease and cardiac
issues but heart disease still continues to grow and you would say to yourself well how is this possible because Statin are effectively free they're generic they're widely available um and today right now because of the lack of Supply the emergency have da order around these semaglutide allows you to make generics
right now right so the cost of those are not really a th000 bucks a month but can be as cheap as a few hundred so you're getting this widespread adoption and usage I think the open question for me is if human history is a guide we're going to replace this issue with a different kind of issue because unfortunately you know
maybe people take it and then they physiologically adapt and then they just continue to eat the same or more because they think wow this is a get out of jail free card for me and maybe they overpower that sa that that that gp1 is supposed to give you I don't know I find it from a sort of public societal Health
perspective really interesting from an economic Market perspective I think that these things are priced to Perfection it's kind of like Nvidia which is like right people everything people are assuming everything is going to work it's a tough point in the cycle to be a buyer I think as as an economic actor but as if you're
making a trade that seems like a hard trade to make and just to give even some more color to it noo Nordisk announced that it was halting its OA kidney disease trial early well Nick show this because it was so conclusive yeah I mean if that sparked a $3.6 billion selloff in shares of dialysis providers I mean
remember over 40% of Americans are clinically obese it's a sorry almost % now it's an extraordinary Health epidemic in the United States and you know if this drug can have this sort of an effect it can reduce cost across the healthare system so you know there is still a I mean chim's point I don't right number this affects cardiovascular
disease diabetes kidney disease liver disease do does an average 16% weight loss reduction actually get people from obesity to un obesity or are they still are they still obese the obes trial seemed to I mean remember you have to get FDA approval for a particular so this is this is what Jason was mentioning so this is this is a basket
that Morgan Stanley created which was essentially starting at the beginning of the year when the hype was really starting to get out of control Morgan Stanley created a basket of the glp1 winners and a basket of the G gp1 potentially disrupted Healthcare stocks so you could trade them off against each
other and this just shows how it's performed which is just a blockbuster trade in the last 10 months so if you if you went long the glp1 winners and short these potenti potentially disrupted it's I mean I've never seen a spread trade payoff like this in such a short period of time 80 80% a year in less
unbelievable the nature of creating would you take the other side of this trade right now or like how do you I would I would re and the reason is because of two two two practical factors one is that when when a when a market gets this exaggerated what your price ing in is essentially like a Panacea solution that and those tend to not
really be realistic and again I would point to statens as a good example of that and so there's a part of it which is just like these trades are so overextended that you can probably pretty be pretty safe on the other side and then the second part is that I don't think we really understand yet the other half of the coin which is
you know for every one of us that's generally positively inclined around gp1s who isn't getting enough attention right now are the doctors who spending a lot of time researching researching this stuff who may actually have a perspective on the other side you know probably the most prominent one like Bob
lusting so you have to give that a little bit of time for it to play out because nobody wants to hear the bease on gp1s as a drug that people take so I I would just say that it's it's probably again when you see an economic trade like this it's it's it's probably okay to be on the other side of it and then just from a public health
perspective you know take a weight and see but for a lot of people who are clinically obese it doesn't seem like the math is such that if you're at a BMI of 30 reducing your weight 16% I think gets you to like a 26 it doesn't get you under the I think it's meaningful I think it's meaningful no no no I'm not
saying it's not meaningful I'm saying it does it it you're still obese yeah I think the the key thing and I don't want to give medical advice but I think you need to do this holistically so you got to keep your diet and you got to keep working out in mind when you do it that should be fairly obvious and those are
always good things to do is you plan to take it your whole life in spts jcal or how do you how do you view it no I'm five pounds from my lowest weight as an adult and my the weight I used to be when I ran marathons and so my plan is to come off of it like by the end of this year and then and I had taken like
six months off twice doing this so I did it like in Little intentional Sprints Sprints yeah just to to get where I wanted to be and this last five uh this last five pound what is your do you have a sense of if your behavior changes when you're on and you're off like do you do you I I do feel more hungry but then I remember
how bad I felt when I was overweight and then I just weigh myself every day and if I see myself get above a certain number I consider that like a red alert and I just you know either start fasting working out or just eating super healthy so it's just the discipline of weighing myself every day that I've gotten
into and just understanding hey you know if I make two or three bad decisions you're not going to make two or three bad decisions when you're on these drugs in my experience because you feel so bloated and so painful when you overeat that you don't want to do it so it's really it's really like it hurts you feel distended and you know there are
reports and it did happen to me twice over two or three years of doing this that if you take it and you eat too much you you could get sick and actually vomit so it some people just don't have the stomach for it I think a lot of people just tap out it it makes their stomachs feel too distended or uh gnarly and that
and that's why the dosage actually really matters they have dosages that are like a very wide range maybe 10x uh and so the dosage getting that right working with your doctor is key but yeah I'm just I'm excited to get off of because I want to really start sincerely weightlifting so I'm getting a a personal trainer to do like
weightlifting twice a week and get really into that next because you can't do hardcore intense working out with us because you're you know just lower calor but I think it's a miracle drug um and I'm I'm excited about it the one question I had for you on the spread trade uh before we end Jam does the
nature of making those indexes and giving people the ability to put the trade on exacerbate the trade because then I saw everybody was tweeting about this you know over the last week does the nature of an index being made impact the the the the action stocks you know Morgan is particularly good at these
basket creations and they tend to make it for their biggest hedge fund clients and their richest families so it tends to be pretty isolated they they they give an edge to a few folks that so these things are not broadly published and so I I doubt it in the end but so they come up with this idea how many in how many names are in each index
it all just depends like and and they're very smart about you know being able to create these on the Fly based on what themes they're seeing and then like I said they share them with their best hedge fund clients and their and their and their biggest families they don't they don't trade you know they don't
share them with us I I I got it Jason one that I told you like at the end of all of that at the end of that graph after everybody put the trade on and got the win they're like let's get Shan but uh so they they didn't actually share it with me in January I wish they did all right listen we got to wrap up great show boys uh and we're praying for
peace and the return of the hostages for the sulan of science the dictator and the Rainman yeah David a I am the world's greatest mon we'll see you at episode 151 enjoy the 150 fan meetups this weekend anybody who's going to Love You by love let your winners ride and instead we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy
with it love queen [Music] of besties are that's my dog taking driveways oh man myit meet me we should all just get a room and just have one big huge orgy cuz they're all this useless it's like this like sexual tension but they just need to release [Music] Som we need to get merch our I'm going all [Music] in