Sultan of science what's going on are you still riding high after you're a big NASA Zoom interview your space station Zoom interview that was really fun shout out to Woody hoberg from the International Space Station astronaut Cal alumni Woody listens to the pod on the ISS while he works at the astronauts workout he said two hours and 15 minutes every day to you know obviously your body can actually got to work out a lot he's like when he's
working out he listens to old episodes of the all-in Pod a buddy of his put him onto it he's become a big fan right on shout out to Woody yeah I got a DM from NASA astronauts I thought it was like some sort of scam or something I clicked on it because I follow NASA astronauts they DM me and I'm like obviously this astronaut wants to chat that's so crazy I looked the guy up seems legit he's following me on Twitter so we did a zoom call
yesterday and I put it on Twitter the call I did with him is really fun honestly like a thrill for me an amazing individual this guy got his PhD at Cal in computer science did a thesis on convex optimization and
applied to aerospace engineering became a professor at MIT for three years and applied to the astronaut program and got in fast forward 2023 in March he is the pilot of the crew 6 Mission the SpaceX crew 6 mission to the ISS and he's been on the ISS
since March and he's coming back in a couple of days an incredible individual Amazing Story it was super fun to chat with him I don't think I've ever seen you smile or be more excited about anything you look absolutely ecstatic oh it was amazing did he have any comments on Uranus any thoughts on Uranus or no we didn't get there you didn't get to Uranus Cal you blew that let's try that again let me take a shot at this Freeburg so
did he talk about going to the Moon yeah he's actually on the Artemis Mission and what about Uranus in 20 minutes did he go for Uranus hey hell I hear that we're trying to actually land on the South Side of the Moon the Dark Side of the Moon Yeah so he's actually honestly would he have an opinion on the dark side of the moon or I don't know the Dark Side of Uranus yeah three for three four three four three we'll let your winner slide [Music]
we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy [Music] I just want to explain somebody was like why are you bullying Jake out why are you bullying Freeburg tomorrow's bullying this person he loves the attention our love language is breaking chops that's it we'd like to laugh and take the piss out because everybody takes themselves too seriously and then what's going on with the tequila are you guys serious about this because now I'm
getting don't talk about that right now I'm getting 50 emails a day with people all right we'll talk about it I did run a poll asking people if they were trying all in tequila and the poll it nearly won okay and then I ran a poll asking what the most they'd ever spent on a bottle was if you price it around 200 bucks you can you can really maximize demand I think the demand maximizing function is probably around uh 180 190
dollars you do not need a majority of people to want to buy your tequila you just need enough that are willing to pay the right price no I agree I was just trying to see how much interest there'd be out there and in this poll I think it was 41 said they would try it 40 said they wouldn't and then the remainder was just kind of you know show me the answer I think if we don't have advertising ever but we have a nice sipping tequila because you know
I don't drink a lot but I do like when sacs guys 32 000 votes so if you look at 18.8 so it's 79 is 200 or less that's the the sum of both of those two cohorts so like if you priced it at call it 189. you probably can get 15 percent
and so you know you could probably sell several hundred thousand bottles a year I mean that's like a pretty real business okay but I need something smooth and I like it a little sweet is that a problem can I just give you my
opinion I think this the thing that people get wrong just as a as a consumer and I think like I'm a pretty Discerning consumer the thing that I don't like is that people focus on all of this window dressing and they don't focus on the core and the core is that for example in wine there's seven or eight rating systems and over time if you buy enough wine and taste enough wine you can really figure out who's good at what and there's just
nothing that replaces a highly rated wine it's exceptional and that kind of discernment is now moving itself into tequila and so I would just encourage us if we're going to make a bottle just make it an exceptionally good tasting bottle and one of the things that I saw in the comments was that people said oh you can't differentiate but then I see some other articles like comos which is the one that I tasted at the one and only mandarina
that was the first hundred Point tequila that had ever been given out and so there are people that are starting to raid it and create these rankings and if we were going to put out a product I would air on Extreme product quality versus price point I invested in a tequila company I shared this with you guys called 21 seeds it was started by my friends Nicole cat and Sarika and they spent a lot of time in Mexico finding the right
producer and they put fresh fruit it's a it's a female Niche tequila so the goal is to create a tequila that will appeal to the female demographic and they spent quite a lot of time trying to figure out how to actually get the flavor of fresh fruit without using artificial flavoring into the tequila and so there was this big investment in trying to get this thing to work this thing worked it took off and uh diagio bought the company but it
was because they spent so much time on the quality of the product that I think they were successful and that's everyone else puts their name and label on a on a bottle of tequila and says hey this is my tequila but if you don't get the quality rights chamoth is totally right people don't buy a second time you got to get it right if you look at what the Rock did The Rock went in a different direction which is I think he has a very
accessible and affordable tequila which I think makes sense as well it's just a different strategy and that also works for the rock because he has almost 400 million followers and so he can really play a volume game but I don't think
that that's what we should ever do that we should stand for exceptional quality exceptional quality and this speaks to something else which is one of the biggest points of feedback that I get so for example I took three days that night
or three days we took a little bit of a our own little honeymoon away from all the kids and we went to Villa Destin just to kind of hang on to Lake Como because I was flying out of Milan and ran into a few people there and the consistent feedback that I get from those folks is like they love hearing about these different places whether it's different brands different kinds of wine all of these things because all these folks are a little bit
left out in the cold now they don't have like how to live life well and if you work really hard and you're lucky enough to then also have some amount of success why should you feel ashamed about it why shouldn't you be allowed to enjoy that and actually like pamper yourself and celebrate yourself and I say go for it so if we can find high quality products like this is the thing for example like I think there's different ways of expressing success
when I was poor I was poor in wallet and I was also poor in mine and then somewhere along the way I actually became rich in wallet but I was still poor in mind and so I would wear these clothes that were gaudy and had huge labels Maples Dior and Valencia yeah man the haircut looked like friedberg's it was disgust it was gross and then I learned how to be rich in wallet and rich in mind which is then you go totally brand off and you can actually
find things that are just like really well tailored well made they can be almost generational pieces of clothing or whatever and I think that it's great that you can find these things and tell other people because you find that there's a latent so many number of people that want that so Ed Villa deste as an example that is probably the Harvard of hospitality I've never been to a hotel that is more on point anywhere in the world than that one
place incredible incredible ways in which one more time Villa Destin Villa D apostrophe e-s-t-e on Lake I'll give you one simple example Matt and I were like talking about this one kind of olive oil and the waiter at the other table heard he went to the kitchen brought back and he said here I heard I just overheard I apologize but and I thought this is incredible you feel so pampered and loved and taken care of the level of
service and quality there was incredible and I think that there's so many examples of this where if you can have elements of that in your life you should do it by the way there's a very high chance that this is where I use all of you guys for the all in Summit in 2025. okay I'm still figuring out all the details I'm picking 20 25. my point is whether it's Laura Piana which is in my opinion the top of the top in terms of brand off really high
quality clothes look at that place the point is like there's all these brands that exist that take enormous amounts of time to exemplify craftsmanship and care and I think that it's appropriate for people who can participate in those experiences to be able to have them and not feel ashamed and actually like enjoy it and celebrate themselves and do it so let's go high quality stuff not shitty big label tacky crap okay Nvidia has
smashed their earnings massive interest coming into this earnings report obviously because we've been talking about Nvidia they've had a massive run-up everybody is trying to buy capacity to run language models Etc self-driving yada yada and it's not just the Googles and Amazons of the world you have startups trying to buy h100s a100s and buy this infrastructure you also have Sovereign wealth funds and countries buying these in the Middle
East in Europe and you have traditional cooperations buying them this is the blowout of world blowouts in terms of performance Q2 Revenue 13.5 billion up 101 year over year that's extraordinary on that large of a number but up 88
percent quarter over quarter high growth in stocks is 20 30 year over year so this is yeah just very uncommon obviously uh Q2 net income six billion dollars up 843 percent year over year Nvidia is now worth 1.2 trillion it's
closing in on Amazon 1.4 trillion and Google at 1.7 trillion dollars in terms of market cap and here's the kicker they're printing up so much money and so much profits rather that the Nvidia board is approving a 25 billion dollar share buyback that's a very large number in terms of share BuyBacks that's six times higher than what they were currently allotted yeah I guess chamoth when you see this kind of extraordinary
run up what is the ramification going to be in terms of for the industry competition and then just trading this name is this peak Nvidia or is the peak yet to come well I think it's peak in one way but this is less about a commentary on Nvidia because they're clearly firing on all cylinders but you know it's a pretty well established rule in capitalism which is when the market observes that there's a company printing enormous revenues and profits
they want to compete with them naturally to get their share of those revenues and profits and that typically happens in all markets then the result of that are just decaying margins in the in the absence of a monopoly this is what you
should expect and so because in this market there's nothing really monopolistic about what they do what they do is exceptional and good but there are other ways and other systems and other companies that are developing
chipsets and capabilities here to compete with Nvidia so it probably just motivates them even more and accelerates the path where you see competition I tweeted this out yesterday but one of the most interesting things that could happen is somebody like Tesla decides to either open source their chip or actually starts to sell their platform because if FSD gets to a reasonable level of scale that entire platform system is a learning and inference
system for the physical world and I think that has tremendous applications you have something called risk V which is an open architecture spec to essentially compete and create different versions of different ships that has implications more I think to arm you have companies like Google that you know frankly spun their own silicon a long time ago TPU you have Amazon now talking about doing the same thing Microsoft has
invested a lot of money in fpga technology so it's just yet another accelerant in this trend to create many forms of AI enabled silicon and so I think that that sort of it pulls that reality forward and let's think we're gonna have to figure out when the market prices that in because I think that that probably decays the Nvidia margin and upside over time again that is not a commentary on that that's just a market reality yeah margins get
competed away for folks who don't know Tesla is making something called Dojo it's their own super computer here's a picture of it they showed that at Tesla AI Day last year and you have arms open source competitor is the risk five chip you're talking about it's an open source architecture for doing large jobs and so I guess my question to you Friedberg is if you look at all this capacity coming online do you think we're going to be in
a situation where the amount of capacity compute being put online is going to outstrip the need for that compute because software is getting so much better and then maybe you know people are running hugging face jobs and
various LMS on the new silicon from Apple and they're running it on their m2s and so do we need this much capacity are there enough interesting jobs in the world to for all this capacity and then might that also be a headwind against
Nvidia when people say you know what I got enough I got enough capacity here I think the rational way to think about this is to try and calculate the efficient Frontier on compute use so the more compute you use the more it costs you the question then is if you double the amount of compute you're using for a particular application do you get twice the return on the investment if you triple it does your Roi on a
percentage basis you know go up or go down so at some point you reach an efficient Frontier which is you start to see a declining or negative rate of return on the investment in the compute that you're using for a particular
application and this is certainly going to be application and Market specific it's going to be largely driven by the data that is available in that market to do training to do tuning the Market's appetite to spend money for that
particular set of applications that emerges from that compute that's being used and so we don't know today where the efficient Frontier is across each of these different markets and sets of applications and the market is finding
that out in the process of finding that out everyone is spending a [ __ ] ton of money on compute and they are trying to get as many server racks as they can they're trying to get as many chipsets as they can they're trying to get
as much server time as they can and everyone's got this idea that the more compute I can throw at a problem the return is going to scale linearly and it turns out that like with most most things the answer is likely not so we're at this point right now and I would argue a bit of a cycle that the there looks to be a bubble and what I mean by that is that there's a lot of inefficient spending going on as the efficient Frontiers are discovered
across all these different application sets and so my intuition without a lot of actual data to back this up is that just anecdotally on what I'm hearing people doing in the market what companies are doing what startups are doing Etc everyone is throwing everything they can at compute and they're going to realize that they're going to need to rationalize those expenses at some time at some point so I would I would Envision Nvidia is
probably writing writing a little bit of a discovery of the efficient Frontier wave right now and that this probably is not necessarily steady state sax we experienced this before as you remember from the.com era there was a massive
investment very similar to this in fiber and the overspending of building the fiber infrastructure so everybody could get broadband and they could stream movies Etc happened in that 97 to 2002 time period a lot of those companies
went out of business a lot of that fiber never got used people were working on compression algorithms while they were building our massive fiber and a lot of that fiber got sold I think Google bought up a lot of it other people bought it up and it was just a massive overspend so is this like the dark fiber of this era where we're just going to build so much capacity that there's just going to be not enough jobs to run on it in your
mind well I think it's a little different than fiber in the sense that every year there's gonna be a new generation of chips and so these Cloud providers who are providing GPU compute they're going to want to keep upgrading the chips to be able to address the next generation of applications so I don't think it's quite as static as fiber where you kind of build it once and you're right that there was kind of a lot of capacity it
was created eventually though the internet usage grew into that capacity but I think this is a little different because again you're going to need to upgrade the chips every year or two I think Friedberg is right that this is
clearly a spike in demand that may not be sustainable I mean recall what happened here is that chat GPT launched on November 30th last year and really called everyone by surprise it kind of took the World by storm and over the
next few months you had hundreds of millions of users discover AI I think it surprised even the open AI team I think when they launched chat GPT they thought it'd be more of a proof of concept but it ended up being a lot more than that and so everyone has scrambled all of a sudden in the last nine months or so to develop their own AI strategy and so again it was this giant platform shift that happened overnight so there is a
tremendous GPU shortage right now and that's also what's leading to these almost software like profit margins by Nvidia because when everyone's clamoring to get a limited supply of these chips and there just aren't enough Nvidia can
almost charge whatever they want and so I think even more than the demand the profit margins might not be sustainable but I think the reality is we just don't know what the steady state of demand in this market is going to be
I think we can say that it can't continue at these growth rates but probably there will be some steady state of demand that's you know probably is at least where we are today yeah I don't think it's perfectly analogous chamoth but just to to bring up some historical context check out this article I was reading the other day the dimensions of the collapse of the Telecommunications industry this is August 20 2002 and it says um the
dimension of the collapse in the Telecommunications industry during the past two years has have been staggering half a million people have lost our jobs in that time the Dow Jones communication technology index has dropped 86 percent the wireless communication index 89 percent these are declines in value-worthy of comparison to the great crash of 1929 out of the seven trillion decline in the stock market since its peak about 2
trillion have disappeared in the capitalization of telecom companies 23 telecom companies have gone bankrupt in a way of capped off by the July 21st collapse of Worldcom the single largest bankruptcy in American history so just a little history there of this it's not perfectly analogous obviously with Nvidia is not going bankrupt or anything like that but this over capacity issue is definitely going to be something but you had mentioned
that in one of your Tweet storms in the past couple of weeks or these long form that you're doing on X previously known as Twitter you mentioned that what are the jobs that could be pushed to this compute and and what if one of them works I think you were doing a speaking that somebody tweeted out a little clip of so let's unpack that what do you think are some jobs that people might push here that we don't anticipate that could solve
something miraculous in the world well yeah the framing is really like if you if you go back to like the the Gold Rush of the 1800s in San Francisco the people that made the money were the platform enablers right they were the ones that sold the picks the shovels the pans and the jeans right and that's where that's where Levi Strauss was born the the equivalent analogy the equivalence in that analogy today is NVIDIA because they are the the
dominant pick and shovel provider so the question is well what are we going to use these picks and shovels to create are we going to find gold and I think the question is unclear and where will that gold be found will it be found
inside of a big tech company or will it be found inside of a startup if you look inside of where these resources are being used inside of big Tech it is to completely Scorch the Earth on the economic value of large models and I
think that that's very very good for all of the startups that come after it so what do I mean by this you know we were all so wrapped around the axle around chat GPT and then GPT in general and now you know if you look at the quality of llama llama 2 basically these big companies have decided no we're just going to make all these models extremely good extremely useful and very very free and so a lot of the resources are going there to
subsidize economically subsidized and by implication economically destroy the value of that category that's going to be good for startups and so the question is what will you then build on top of these quasi-free almost free tools and so one area that I have been looking at for a while is in computational biology I think that that clip that you're talking about was just me talking with Lauren's Eve just around the ability to compute large
complex spaces with very sparse information it's not it's a very difficult task today but tomorrow in an AI model that you can train you can literally characterize every single molecular permutation you could imagine you combine it with something like Alpha fold and you can understand protein folding and all of a sudden you can sequentially start to put tools together that could theoretically give you much higher probability guessing
for specific compounds that could actually cure disease a different version of that is a company that myself and a few other people started I tweeted that out which is more in the material science space and we've had some pretty important breakthroughs there which is really about trying to invent Next Generation battery materials and we have one candidate that could be pretty revolutionary if it turns out to work we don't know yet
some positive signs so there are there are some of these green shoots so my perspective is that a lot of the money that Nvidia makes today is going to be money well spent because it'll be going to the big guys big Tech Plus Tesla they are then going to create some really foundational platform Technologies with it whether it's Dojo whether it's FSD whether it's the full platform inside of Tesla that is the cameras plus the inference plus
the training for all forms of physical world interaction whether it's llama two and all of that stuff will be given away essentially I think open source quasi-free to the ecosystem over the next few years and I think that'll be a really important moment which will create hundreds of new companies doing really clever cool things so we haven't yet seen the big breakout company yet and so I think that right now most of this capex is going to
the big guys but the dividends of all the work that these big guys are doing will be seen over the next few years in the startups that get started in the next four or five years I love the California analogy ultimately what all that
prospecting for gold did was create the state of California putting aside the Levi's and the genes and uh if you know anything about California's GDP it would be yeah I think these statistics are always talked about fifth
tenth eighth largest uh it has a bigger GDP California than some of the largest countries in the world so this is a 2015 chart it's hard to find the updated information on this but ultimately that was the product of the Gold Rush is this incredible State any other thoughts on Nvidia before we move on to arm I think open AI had a potentially significant product announcement that's related to this so they just launched fine tuning for
chat GPT actually version 3.5 turbo it says here fine tuning lets you train the model on your company's data and run that scale early tests have shown that fine-tuned GPT 3.5 can matric cgbt4 on narrow tasks so you can do things like
fine-tune the formatting of the output you can fine tune the tone fine tuning also allows business to make the model follow instructions better so I think the point of this is that we're still at such an early stage of
this and there are so many applications that are going to be developed and they're making the models more and more useful so Jason to your analogy about fiber what happened with fiber is there was a big build out of over capacity but then the number of applications kept growing until that capacity got used and I think we're probably going to see something like that here where there is a big build out going on of capacity and
capabilities and that's going to lead to the next generation of applications and and I just think we don't know yet what the steady state of either demand or supply for these chips is going to be obviously the market got taken by
surprise over the last year so you've seen again this huge spike in demand the supply cannot react fast enough that's led to gigantic profits for NVIDIA but it's hard to know exactly again what is the steady state going to be is it going
to be like this or is this a one-time Spike and we also don't know what the supply will be once the manufacturers all adjust because now they know that the demand is there and to your point like the the big use cases are pushing us well past chips to to really be more like entire systems and these racks and so if you look like at Grace Hopper which is their next-gen design it's like a bunch of chiplets plus memory be on a huge board
it's not a chip you're talking about system level manufacturing at this point and that will also create different kinds of use cases because for example today right now when you look at simple things like probabilistic tasks I think chat GPT and all these gpts are are pretty marvelous and pretty inspirational but deterministic tasks they're [ __ ] like you know they hallucinate on simple things like multiplication why because you infer
multiplication and you try to calculate it probabilistically and you get these simple math functions wrong and so these are all these things where you the software has to become more and more sophisticated and actually be able to path and tunnel code into different ways of getting it executed and then bringing it back and stitching it together all of these things don't exist those are very rudimentary things that were solved in
V1 of compute so I think that to your point David like we don't know where this goes we're probably going to go to a place that it's not just about chips but it's about systems but that's going to create this weird balkanization almost and I think that's where a lot of the profit margins will get eroded away because that will make it a much more competitive industry and there just isn't a lot of margin to capture when you actually Stitch all
these things together yeah and if you think about what were the massive wins for all that extra fiber it was really two companies the first was YouTube which stopped charging people for transport on their videos before that if you had a video go viral your your server got shut down because you you hit your five thousand dollar a month limit or whatever you had set with your ISP and then Netflix of course right Netflix couldn't exist and
all that dark fiber built that so we'll see with all this extra GPU what could happen and to your point about the the breakthroughs there you can now go into your chat GPT and you could put in custom instructions and so it asks you what would you like chat CPT to know about you and provide better responses and you know for example I told it I'm a venture capitalist I live in the Bay Area I'm looking for concise business information
and then it says well how do you like how would you like chat GPT to respond and I said I'd like to see data in a table I like to see data in those tables with hyperlinks I like citations when possible yeah just to be clear what
you're describing with custom instructions that was a feature I think they launched like a month or two ago a couple weeks ago what that is doing is uh prompt engineering basically it's pre-saving like all that Preamble that
you would have to put in every single one of your prompts whereas this fine tuning as I understand it is more about fine-tuning the model to your team to improve the model for a certain kind of need or certain kind of output right so the example there would be if you had your email box or you had your Google Docs or you had a repository of all your slack messages or something your company had your company handbooks or you know
all of uh chamat's letters he writes every year you could have that uploaded to chat GPS it's potentially very powerful I think for Enterprises I think the big Enterprise use case the most obvious one is that every Enterprise wants its own internal chatbot it wants its own internal chat GPT 8 where the employees can ask questions and the AI has access to all the company's information and it understands permissions and privacy so it only
reveals information to people who have the right to see it that's kind of a tall order but I think that's what the market wants yeah they want the chat GPT for the company intranet yes and so I think racing to provide that and there
was a interesting tweet by Nathan Ben H anyway he just said bye bye a bunch of startups because I guess a lot of stars were working on this fine-tuning problem that may be too glib because I think there's just a lot of
Enterprises who do not want to share all their corporate information with open AI of course what if it's HR information then you have people asking like who are the most overpaid people in this company you know what if it's like the badge
information and how many hours people are working or that's more about permissions Jason but even if open AI can nail the permissions problem I think this is a lot of Enterprises who will not want to trust their data to open an
AI yeah they're gonna be afraid about where it goes this is why I think open source is taking off in a big way is that I think big Enterprises would much rather roll their own models and control it and do the fine tuning and that's why they're using tools like Mosaic and hugging faces they want to have control over it themselves that's an excellent point and that has implications as well into the hardware which is also probably
a good jumping off point for arm because this that what you said is exactly must happen for the Integrity of an organization to want to use these things and if that happens then it just further further accelerates I think how the hardware will get abstracted and frankly quasi-open sourced as well all right let's talk Facebook did a great job of this because like when Facebook was building data centers they had to invent tremendous
capabilities that didn't exist before and the market was really fragmented it was very expensive and what they did was they basically created these reference designs for servers and blades in the whole nine yards and open source the whole thing and it just you know in in essence destroyed a market but it created a hyper efficient market that then everybody could use and I think the question is that if it's happening at
the software layer already now just like it did in web 2 software and then we see certain elements of web 2 Hardware been open sourced I think it makes pretty logical sense that you can expect the same things to happen in the AI world the AI models and the AI platforms and the all of that stuff will first get open source because it's a data Integrity security issue and then the hardware will get open source as well because you just want
simple reference designs you can use and plug and play yeah if you want to look at that it's called the open compute project opencompute.org just a way to use open source to grind down the prices take out the margin I guess is what you're saying to make all these data centers uh scale right well so yeah so one related story here is this this happened in the last few weeks there's a company called core weave which provides Cloud infrastructure for
AI training it's secured a 2.3 billion dollar investment in the form of a loan what court weave is trying to do it's kind of like uh AWS but for gpus so essentially instead of having to buy your own gpus in order to you know set up your own infrastructure you just basically rent compute from these guys but this is this is exactly why like none of these none of these companies will really be allowed to exist in this exact way four
or five years from now because ultimately what people want is massive throughput right tokens per second give me as many tokens per second as possible and they don't particularly care again if you understand the model do they
really care what the underlying substrate Hardware should be it doesn't seem like they should they should care what is the throughput what do I pay for it and by the way that is exactly what happened when AWS really start to scale
because if you guys remember when we started to First abstract code into AWS why do we care about how much did an ec2 instance cost how much did an S3 bucket cost and that's all we cared about because that abstraction allowed us to not care about the underlying Hardware who was the vendor what was the con configuration it didn't matter and so in an interesting way we're going to go through that same Evolution here because
it's just economically rational that that kind of Market exists you should only care tokens per second I think all right in other news oh by the way there's uh something called common crawl which is another interesting open source
project that is getting a lot more attention today because they have crawled the web and you can use this common crawl they release it monthly and that's what a lot of people are training their data on now they don't have
permission from all those people to do training data but they do have the ability for you to download an open crawl essentially what Google has and you have a an open source version of it so Carmen crawl was started and funded
by Gil elbaz yeah he's a he's a friend Gill sold his company applied semantics to Google back in 0203 and a big part of his effort with common crawl is to that's happening is it AdSense [Music] AdSense so basically applied semantics
could read a web page and then create the keywords associated with the content on that web page and then those keywords would trigger AdWords ads on the on the web page so they called it AdSense so AdSense started and the whole publisher Network at Google was born from the applied semantics acquisition and Gill was obviously a pretty significant shareholder of Google he's even in the S1 as one of the major shareholders he's a really great human
being and his intention with this common crawl project was you know to make the crawling of the web the index and the caching available for all these different projects that might exist and he didn't at the time anticipate the uh the open AI application becoming you know the big breakthrough but when gpt3 was published I think they said that 80 plus percent of the waiting came from the content out of common crawl and so it's really been this uh
this Amazing Project completely non-profit all funded mostly funded by Gill and um has really unlocked this opportunity for a lot of the open source alternatives to now try and provide solutions that can exist in coexist with open Ai and others in the commercial options in the world a small piece of trivia we were one of the first AdSense Publishers and so here's a story from October of 2005 weblogs Inc with student Gadget the the
blogging company I started hit three thousand dollars a day in AdSense thanks to Gail and the team over there and we wound up selling it that's awesome and this is the story about it and and we were awesome in the S1 they had two examples of Publishers one was New York Times and then one was weblogs Inc they wanted to show like an upstart and this one and so a lot of history here and it's fun to go back uh down to and we were we were
in the S1 for by the way Gil is going to be at the summit so uh oh go give me a hug you take a picture Charles Barkley had this great story which is like he is like over the moon about being a grandfather I saw this on 60 Minutes and
he said it's because I want my grandchild grandson to Google me and notice that I did some things and then we can talk about it yeah and Jacob I had this thought for you like that's like that's a cool piece of Internet
history that you're a part of yeah hopefully you're you're your grandkids will Google that and you can tell them that's right that's pretty cool or you know 1800 episodes of this weekend startups I just tweeted a an episode
with Gary tan from 2009 that I recorded at sequoia's office and I just put it on the uh this week in startups Twitter account it's pretty funny to have baby face Gary tan from posterous on there all right arm officially filed it's F1
it's kind of like an S1 for a foreign company and they plan to go public next month arms Revenue last quarter 675 million down two percent year over year up seven percent quarter of a quarter fiscal full year 2023 2.7 billion ish down one percent year over year Farms major business uh just so you know is uh smartphones 99 of smartphones are built with arms chip architecture embedded systems they they have a medication
systems yeah we'll get into it the problem is the market is totally moved when SoftBank platform it was probably like the last year where you know there was so much focus on the hardware and platform Technologies inside of mobile
and tablets and all that stuff but in these last few years think of what's happened we've had a massive shift to AI right and so that's pushing a lot more pressure on gpus and whatever comes after that we have had a re-emergence of
the popularity of risk V which is an open source competitor to arm we have had Apple in Source a whole bunch of their own architectural decisions in Silicon design because they don't want the dependency philosophy yeah well also they also care about different things like they care about battery life so that's why you know that's the focus of their chip architecture and so all of this just means that that market embedded systems
becomes more and more constrained and commoditized over time which again as we said in capitalism means that future profits will be less than historical profits and so I think this is a very tough valuation to get right
and trying to stretch to a 60 or 70 billion dollar print I think is really tough this is a honesty at 15 to 20 billion dollar company ouch so a question for Youth and I'll open it up to to The Davids why would SoftBank I know the answer but
I'm asking you so you can explain it to the audience why would SoftBank take a company public with these headwinds with no growth being flat why are they taking it public now well SoftBank has the d-lever right they have a they have a very big problem which is that they have this forget SoftBank Vision fund for a second but SoftBank itself is a Telco operator that has ginormous piles of debt that they've used to finance the
building of their business and so when you have contraction in your core business you become more and more at risk of breaching the covenants of all that debt and or you just like run out of free cash flow like all of these things really hurt your future ability to invest and so SoftBank is under a lot of pressure to just clean up the balance sheet and delever and so when you have an asset like this sitting there if you
can sell you know 20 or 30 billion dollars of that call it to somebody and then replenish your balance sheet that provides tremendous liquidity and relief and they did that as well a few months ago with Alibaba they've started
to I think now they may have sold out of the overwhelming majority of the position in Alibaba again because they have massive liquidity needs because they have so much debt so this is just part and parcel of them delevering the
balance sheet so they're forced to get it out is I guess what you're saying and then we've talked sacks a little bit about other companies that are going to be forced they're on the what do they call it when you're on a pirate ship
they make you walk the plank I'd say this is like the walking of the plank to an IPO you've got other companies that have issues where they just have to get public at some point so maybe the public markets are going to open up
and uh in some cases it's going to be because people are walking the plank other cases it's going to be opportunistic so maybe you could talk a little bit about your thoughts on that I think it's hard to walk the plank into the public markets I'm not sure exactly what you mean by that because the public markets have to want to buy your issuance so if it's not a good company then you know in this environment they're not
gonna be able to IPO well they're going to be able to iPad I think the question is the price they have no choice so yeah there may be a lot of down rounds into an IPO from the last private round which was two or three times what the IPO price is going to be maybe what you mean by walk the plank is that well you tell me but there are a lot of companies which have built up huge pref Stacks because they raise too much money at the Peak at
valuations are too high and going public does allow you to reset your whole prep stack because all the preferred with all the rights and preferences converts to Common so post IPO you just have common yeah and so it is a way to like clear out all the structure and all the mess that has built up in a company and you can get to a real valuation that reflects basically the truth of what the company is worth another analogy might be the
house is on fire you got it you're on the balcony you gotta jump or you got to stay in the burning building yeah but you know listen if your company's on fire I don't think you're going to be on IPO I mean it's it's going to be a tough
scrutinizing public market for new offerings I think that the scenario in which you can IPO is if the company is fundamentally good it will be able to IPO at some valuation and that valuation may be a significant down round from
their last private round those will be able to get out yeah and that's strike I guess now are you it could be striped yeah are you seeing David the m a activity starting to Bubble Up in your portfolio or in you know the back channels because I'm starting to see that a bit Founders are packing it in in some instances and saying you know what we want to try for m a or you know some companies are getting a little bit frisky and saying hey what's
available in the market on the small side so you're seeing any any m a action not a ton yet but there's definitely a growing number of startups who are realizing that what they're doing is not working and they're not going to raise another round and so therefore figuring out a graceful exit whether it's an aqua hire or some other type of Landing ah got it those are those might be the accurate walking the planks yes those
are the walking the planks you're going to start seeing a lot more of that for sure Freeburg your thoughts on the on the public markets here in relation to privates and people walk in the plank I don't think there is a public market
right now there's no IPO window this arm thing is you know pretty forced it seems It's not like there's a ton of pent-up public demand to buy these arm shares at least that's what it seems so you know they're gonna go shop it
they're gonna find out what the market tells them it's worth and and then we'll see Nvidia is going to help buoy it I'm sure there'll be an argument that you know all boats will rise and arm will be a beneficiary but I don't know if that necessarily leads into the IPO window being open again I think we've all heard the commentary from Morgan Stanley that they don't think the window's opening until Q2 Q3 of next year maybe I can't
remember the exact commentary but as as we all know a lot of LPS in Venture funds and private Equity Funds are waiting for the IPO window to reopen before they're going to start reallocating Capital back into the private Venture funds
because they need to get liquid in order to be able to recycle Capital back into the next class of funds so this glut right now this inability to kind of get companies public is certainly Weighing on folks you know you
effectively have three options when you're running a private company you gotta keep raising money which means either raise private capital or go public and we've talked about the challenges of raising late stage private Capital if you've had a high private valuation in your prior round going public is very difficult right now because a lot of folks are still digesting and having indigestion from the last couple of years or you got to
sell the company or you got to get profitable now on the sell the company side many of the Acquisitions that we're seeing with a few exceptions are generally more bolt-on and less like hey I'm going to pay some big strategic
premium for some big strategic game changing company right now because all the buyers are dealing with their own shareholder issues and their own public stock issues right now then the you know can you get profitable it's really as
you guys know where a lot of folks are going which is totally restructure your ambition restructure your plans and build a business where customers are willing to pay you money and where you can then take that profit and only reinvest that profit and not invest more than that profit and if you can get to that steady state you know you can live to see another another day another year another decade and those businesses by the way that we
saw in the.com boom and the global financial crisis that that were able to do that during the the doldrum Death Valley March that everyone's going through right now they emerged Victorious they learned how to be frugal they learned how to be nimble they learned how to really focus on customer experience because they had to increase retention and they had to increase the prices they were charging they learned how to be efficient with allocating
resources and so profitability became a core part of their DNA and their ability to succeed so I think this is really a a trial era and you know on the other side of this trial era a number of very high quality companies will emerge but in the interim I don't think that there's a an IPO path that a lot of folks can just check the box and say hey let's go ahead and go public even if the valuation Is Not Great remember an IPO process you got to
over sell your book or the bankers won't underwrite it so if they're you know you can't just say hey the price is now five bucks and expect anchors are there if a company's burning money the big concern with going public right now is that there is no pipe Market there is no ability to do secondary to do follow-on offerings so the company can't raise Capital after it's public so unless you're actually profitable your option
of going public right now really isn't there because shareholders don't want to buy shares in a company that may run out of money yeah and that's what it ends up yeah yeah and to your point if you take this third option and you you become
really resilient and you have profits chamoth that seems to me to be the setup for the next boom that we could experience in the coming Years hopefully which is we don't have companies that are burning you know mountains of cash
people are getting to profitable these businesses look great and then if the big companies are now you know having their stock prices recover and they've laid off 20 000 employees and they got people returning to the office and they're fit and they're strong hey that's a setup for strong companies buying strong companies or those strong companies that are private the m a market is dead as a doornail it's more dead than the IPO
market so two days ago the European commission and the CMA in the UK said that they're probing Adobe Sigma because they have some concerns that it's going to limit competition in the market it looks like Microsoft will have to give a 15-year license to video game streaming to Ubisoft in order to get the UK folks to agree to Activision to their Activision acquisition so you're talking about the first case a 20 billion dollar
merger that may not happen because the CMA they found their footing they clearly had a win in the Microsoft Activision thing and now they're probably going to find issue with the Adobe figma thing and the Europeans don't want to be left out in the action so they're jumping in so I think the m a market is effectively dead what it leaves is an IPO Market but that is very tenuous because you don't have a leading candidate that can really
catalyze something and I made this prediction earlier but I think the only company that can really catalyze things would be if people are ready to do starlink I mean it's the most obvious natural logical thing that would just
get everybody excited and off the sidelines and into the arena but that may take another year may not but it may in the meantime I don't think there's any company like instacart I don't think people are going to be jumping off the
sidelines arm it'll be tough even stripe now is like a very complicated valuation trade and I think that that's a really technical thing to be involved in in an IPO like that a technical evaluation and so companies have no choice except to get profitable and get to default to life to use the famous Paul Graham quote dear that's the only path that's it yeah I mean Pat you either have to be default alive which means profitable or default
investable which means that you're capable of producing metrics that a VC will fund but really that starts with 100 year-over-year growth there's a lot of companies that aren't growing very fast they're growing 20 30 40 50 60 growth refundable yeah or they're flat even worse some are shrinking so those cases they got to think more like a PE model than a venture model yeah and PE companies are cash flow positive they don't burn cash
I put out this video a few months ago called VC or PE what's the right framework for thinking about your startup this was a oh craft Ventures YouTube this is a talk that I gave to our portfolio companies we recorded it and then published it
really it should have gotten more attention but this was basically recommending to all those slower growing companies in our portfolios stop thinking that VC funding is always going to be available and start thinking more
like a PE funded private Equity company which is to say you need to cut your burn to get cash flow positive you will then be able to uh control your own destiny so yeah this slide here if you're not VC eligible act realistically so we provided some guidance on what makes a company eligible for VC funding and you can see there's a good column there's a great column good starts at 2x growth grade is 3x gross margins good starts at 50 great
is 80 net dollar retention good starts at 100 greatest 120 percent CAC payback good is 12 to 18 months grade is 6 to 12 months burn multiple good as one and a half great is one or less and then there's some danger zones as well this was to provide them with some realistic guidance in terms of whether they'll be able to raise another VC round or not and I can tell you like most startups in start world right now are in the danger
zone it's a really tough environment and so you know listen if you're a startup with sub 1 million of ARR and you're in the danger zone you're probably gonna have to pack it in or maybe you package yourself up for an aqua hire but if
you're a startup that has 50 million of ARR but you're in the danger zone just cut your burn you could basically make yourself Castrol positive and you could engineer an outcome for yourself a pretty good outcome my anecdotal
experience is one of our larger Investments we brought in a private Equity Firm or they came in and my God it's been an incredible experience because the combination of how like a VC looks at a business and how a PE firm looks at a business in A Moment Like This is hyper additive because it's super clarifying it's very straightforward and it gives a CEO an extremely clear mandate from which to operate and then they become very
measurable and I found it to be a really really healthy thing now PE guys can only get in involved in companies of a certain size so it limits 50 million and above in Revenue 100 million Yeah in our case it was a 400 million 380 300 more than 300 million Revenue so it's a big it's a big company but my point is just more that we were moving along a trajectory to getting to default alive but by adding that PE part discipline tool support boom I
think we were able to focus on it probably a year to 18 months faster and with specific Precision because they have a very different toolkit and a reaction to mis-execution and that's extremely healthy yeah we had this happen you know meeting with uh just from the front lines we um we meet with we have 20 000 people apply for funding from our firm in large part I would say we doubled the number of applications after all in started so
shout out to my besties here it's really helped our deal flow and we find companies and we found a company that was obsessed with all in and the two Founders were quants and they made this company called Stone algo
we meet this company they've got very little money it's a bootstrap company and they got to a half million dollars in Revenue you know just on Sweat Equity and we find this company it's not part of the Silicon Valley you know accelerator
system it's basically kayak for diamonds uh shout out to the team over there and we were able to place a nice bet on this company that was break even and you know put in uh you know a couple of hundred thousand dollars to to start start them down this um road to growing faster but what a delightful thing to find a profitable company in the world and so if you have a profitable company like and it's just 50 000 a month or 25 000 a month please
email me Jason calagonist.com I want to invest in your company when you have that company small amount of Revenue profitable and you're not burning a ton you are so attractive to investors right now it's the highest attractiveness in the world and I just want to point out David as this Market has you know completely gone from absolute chaos the hair has gotten Tighter and Tighter you were in Crazy Banning and now you are tight tight is
Right Sachs is focused he's deploying that LP Capital he's deploying that advice to SAS companies and it's no joke now folks General sax is here he is not crazy history Uncle he is sassax he's sassax is back this is like when uh Mark Zuckerberg started wearing a tie to work to start showing that it was serious yes yes with that slick back hair all right listen we gotta get going here we got a lot more on the docket I I think we just
maybe I'm gonna jump the fence here and we just go right to the Republican primary the funniest thing last night was at poker we watched it you watched it during poker were you able to focus you have to hear Kevin Hart react when all these guys are doing it's one of the funniest things I've ever heard and the worst part of the poker was uh the magician here we go how can you both be playing poker here but also on the debate stage at this time
which I thought was that was a funny joke but it was funny it was very funny all right listen I know everybody's I just want to go around the horn here Friedberg did you watch the debate who won the debate who had the largest gain net gain in terms of their profile in your mind after watching debate number one of the GOP David Friedberg biggest gain I watched the debate I kind of think about these guys on three dimensions which is the content how
dynamic they are and their personality I think those are the three dimensions that people are going to be kind of assessing them on I think Nikki Haley did a tremendous job gaining interest with respect to her personality and her content burgum Hutchinson I don't think had a chance to move the needle on any of them I think Vivek was by far the winner on Dynamic he had the the hardest hitting biggest comeback with a very close second being Chris
Christie but I do think that Vivek got taken apart when it comes to content and I have real concerns about his personality there's a lot of people that are just turned off by him that he seems a little too eager that he seems a little too smart for his own good the commentary about him being so Junior and doesn't have experience I think standing next to those guys on stage really showed to be honest Mickey Haley
tearing him apart on his uh point of view on Russia and sax you know we can debate the point or not but I think she did a masterful I don't think she tore him apart I think the biggest dunk line of the evening was when he congratulated her on her future appointments to the boards of Raytheon and Lockheed yeah that was I think that was brilliant I just think he's the most dynamic character and I think people people do in a democracy vote on that
they vote on how Dynamic someone is they vote on their personality and whether they can trust the person I think Nikki Haley shines there she seems extremely trustworthy and personable Chris Christie came across as very personable so you're big Winners yeah Mike Pence I would say under underwhelmed and Ron DeSantis man it's like he didn't show up are probably like you know across those Dimensions like you know the four
runners and everyone else is probably off now let me get your mom and then sack you get to comment on both of there so I want to go to you last because you have the most passion here chamath who are your big Winners coming out of it in other words who gained the most last night welcome Brown do for you Buck and brown do for you I think that okay UPS settlement great I thought that I thought that Nikki Haley did an incredible job
and I do think that Vivek did a very good job and I think what's interesting is that I'm fascinated to see what the Republican reaction over the next few weeks will be to Vivek and specifically what I'm interested in seeing is
do the Trump loyalists start to were they incepted with an idea yesterday which is that this guy can give us a lot of the talking points we want without some of the heartburn and agita that we don't want and if he is able to thread that needle
which is what I think his effective strategy has been he could really build momentum going into the fall so that was my that was my real takeaway is that he is refining A playbook look the guy is a clearly a really brilliant person
well studied well prepared and dynamic as David said so he can you know clap back at people which I think is important but the most important thing that he's done is he has defined a very precise strategy to thread this needle
of being close enough to Trump to frankly eventually go after him but do it in a way where he's slowly building credibility among Trump Loyalists and I think if you look at where other people made huge gaffs unnecessary gaffs was they took their beliefs and they confuse them with the strategy of winning and that doesn't work in the Republican party so when the candidates were asked about Trump and the ones that Drew a hard line and
said that this guy's going to go to jail what happened they got booed and it just ended their ability to be credible for what they said afterwards I'm not saying that that's right or wrong it's just an observation so I think vivec is
doing the smartest job of understanding the rules on the field and he's in the arena okay so that gives them a lot that gives them a lot now we go to sack sacks you heard Nikki Vivek Christie from Freeburg you heard yeah
and Tim Scott so the vet clearly uh the buzz and the Search terms and everything it seems to be favoring Vivek as the big lift here do you think vivec is the Trump change agent without the indictments without the baggage without the Trump derangement syndrome insanity is is chamoth correct here that he's a more palatable version of the change agent that is Trump I think he's positioning himself as the backup plan to Trump
so he's not criticizing Trump he is cultivating support within Trump's space again not to supersede him but I think to perhaps be a backup plan I think it is a smart strategy but let me back up a little bit here who won for you everybody else played the game biggest game clearly the biggest game was Vivek that's okay reflected in the polling there's a poll on Drudge Report in which 33 which was the highest number said
that he won the debate 22 for Haley 18 suffer DeSantis Christie got 16 the rest were just non-factors so not scientific but pretty scientific but this is corroborated by Nate silver how to yes some stock this morning basically saying that based on the buzz on social media and the sentiments Google Trends he predicted that for vague we keep saying Vivek Vivek it's it is quite key he's gonna have the biggest bounce out of the debate partly that's a
function of the fact that he was the least well-known candidate okay so this gave him a lot of exposure and he has a good orator I mean just the way he caused the energy the timber of his voice he projects well and he had a
clear point of view in this debate you may not agree with everything he said but he had a very clear point of view and I expect that both the number of people who like him and the number of people who dislike him will go up as a
result of this but I think the net effect of that will be positive now let me back up just give you a couple more thoughts on the debate first of all in terms of winners I think the Republican party in a way demonstrated that it is
the party of ideas where there actually are debates happening because you saw here I think real differences between the candidates and I could break them up into really three categories if you like there's this Neo on wing
of sort of Hardline foreign policy Hawks and he saw Dicky Haley's part of that and Chris Christie and Pence momentum Scott then you had this religious right faction where you've got Pence and Scott and then you've kind of
got the Maga Wing which Vivek really took up the mantle of opposing Ukraine and defending Trump so you have three very different groups within the party who are battling I think for mind share within the party and to be the future of
the party so it's not just about candidates and personal style but it really is about ideas you compare that to the Democratic party they're not even having a debate they're protecting Biden from a debate there could be a real debate because RFK Jr has really different ideas and he would like to take the party in a very different direction the direction of his father and Uncle Bobby Kennedy and John F Kennedy he's saying that we have moved
away from where we should be as a party but the people who control the Democratic party do not want to have that debate they have shut it down completely there is no debate they're just protecting Biden so that's number one is I think we should give the Republican party some credit for being willing to discuss and debate I love the fact that you had a vibrant debate you had differences of opinions now it was a little like a UFC fight and
you know zingers and back and forth but I did like the fact that you had people who in moderation was actually surprisingly good when they forced them to say like would you give Trump a pardon or you know what would you do in terms of support for Ukraine this was like really well done and they had that 30 second thing where they stopped people they said hey this is the 30 second one and they had to reign in Pence because he kept you know
interrupting and they were kind of respectable so I just want to shout out to Fox for good moderation uh there were some crazy zingers in there as well and it seems like we live in zinger culture I think the the best Zinger goes to the moderator who said let's talk about the elephant that's not in the room and then they brought up Trump well Frank I don't know if you caught that one but that was pretty hardcore well so let's talk about
winner number two which was Trump because Trump did not participate and he didn't pay any price whatsoever for that he barely got mentioned or attacked on that stage and then he did this interview with Tucker which started five minutes before in the debate which was kind of brilliant because once again Trump was able to suck up a lot of the oxygen maybe not all of it but a lot of oxygen without even participating in the
debate it was a perfect bookend I watched both it was a perfect bookend you got Trump over here saying chamath I'm interested in your position but he said listen I don't need to be in there with these guys mudsling and they have zero or one percent uh and I I think he got the sense that he's excited to debate them when there's two people left or something like that what did you think of did you watch Trump's thing uh Freeburg or Tremont
I watched both the debate and then I watched I do think Trump effectively won the debate night because you had all these guys going at each other and then you had Trump playing the trump card I'm not even gonna show up because
I don't have to he literally made himself better than everyone else in the room by saying I'm not even it's not even worth my time to show up to talk to you guys go ahead and fight with each other I'll also just restate this this
point about Vivek I think it became abundantly clear that his strategy his strategy is to Pander to the Trump audience that his commentary about you know God is real climate change is the numbers there's two genders he knows through polling through his understanding and his intelligence that this is what this audience that is the bulk of the voting members of the Republican Party want to hear and he is telling them what they
want to hear and then uh isn't that the Java politician yeah I mean isn't that better than pandering to the military-industrial complex like Nikki Haley did there was a comment last night that I thought was really important
which is that leadership is not about consensus and what he's doing is he is reflecting back the consensus view of the majority of people in that party in order to get himself elected rather than leading with a different message that
casts a different opportunity the different light on the opportunity for this nation and I think that's really where he and others on that stage or he particularly falls short is that he speaks too much to what people already
believe and say because he knows that that's what they're voting for Trump about and then the bet is that there's some chance not a hundred percent but some chance that Trump doesn't make it all the way he ends up in jail or people
start to turn on him and then he's the front runner because he's basically captivated that audience yeah hold on but Freeburg and I will let you address it here chamoth just said the Brilliance of Vivek and his positioning here is that he understands how to win and he is playing this game and you call it pandering sacks as I've been saying it's understanding the needs of that audience the job of a politician sex is to win
and to stay in office so I don't believe the Vex positions on a lot of the stuff I think he is pandering I think he wouldn't do what Trump did I think you know he's he's doing the part in promise because he knows he gets some votes so how do you reconcile this your job is to win right and you would rather see DeSantis maybe pick up on some of this action no as your preferred candidate then that's a good question Freeburg do
you think that a politician's job when you're running for president of the United States is it to understand the conditions on the field and when or not I think the politician's job or I I don't want to say the job I think the opportunity to get elected in a democracy is to provide leadership to cast a light on where you think the country or whatever constituency you're supposed to lead can go to provide a sense of opportunity to provide a sense
of optimism to provide a sense of what's not happening today that should be different rather than reflecting back to those people exactly what they want now the flip side of that is exactly what you're saying which is that I think what happens in a democracy is that people elect people that represent what they believe and I think that's what's going to happen he's raising his hand and he's saying I believe these things and he's going to
get elected or he's going to put himself in a position to get elected if Trump drops out I just think there's a lot of people who are very smart who if they are too idealistic will achieve nothing in their lives and I don't think Vivek
is one of those people idealism has a place in the world it's not on the debate stage when you're running for president United States okay sax you wanted to get in here go okay let's take the issue of Ukraine because that was
one of the main issues that Vivek differed from the rest of the people on that stage there is polling by CNN that a majority of Americans have now turned against the idea of giving more Aid to Ukraine I'm sure that number is much
higher in the Republican party if you remember there was an event Charlie Kirk who is a conservative influencer has an event called Turning Point USA and they did polling of their conference attendees the number one issue that
everyone agreed on was Ukraine 95 of the attendees opposed giving more Aid to Ukraine Donald Trump only got 85 percent popularity so the base of the party is even more united against Joe Biden's policy in Ukraine than they are unloving Trump okay that tells you something and yet for Vegas the only candid on that stage that was willing to raise his hand like aggressively like full-throatedly not kind of a half-hearted to saying that he
did not agree with Biden's policy on Ukraine what is wrong with all these other people on the stage that they cannot understand what is wrong with Biden's Ukraine policy which by the way is the signature policy of his
presidency what is the point of Republicans nominating a candidate who's just going to agree with Joe Biden on providing AIDS Ukraine as much as it takes for as long as it takes is this your position here at Freeburg is that you know win at
all costs let's call it the vague win at all costs play the game on the field as chamatha sang and just win the game versus being principled because you did have no no I think that that framing is such a setup can I can I just say something frame it how you are you you said playing the game on the field and Friedberg said having a principal here and having like an actual vision for the country so I'm taking both of yours look
I think the framing is not as not what is wrong with Vivek but what is wrong with candidates like Christy and Pence and Haley and Scott where even though 95 of their party is opposed to Ukraine they are adopting Joe Biden's policy and their only criticism of Joe Biden is that he's not doing enough fast enough for them okay let's let free bird get in here they're completely out we got your point what the Republican party as it
stands today we got your point but is it not Freebird what you're saying is that there is this profile and courage to to invoke that book where you there's something that's unpopular that you have to do and I think Nikki Haley Pence
Christy and the other ones who are pro defending Ukraine from Russia their profile encourage uh Freeburg is that they will go against that 95 polling and say it's the right thing to do we should defend Taiwan we should
defend Israel we should defend Ukraine against those are three different issues I know it's three different issues but they were all evoked by the Vivek himself so Freiburg your chance I think The West Wing does a great job of exploring both sides of this which is when do you have to break the mold and break the expectation of the people to do the right principle thing and when do you have to do the thing that you don't
think is right but it's what the people want to have happen um and I I think that that's a obviously a balance that needs to be struck when you're in this position of being an elected leader in a democracy and so
there's no there's no real answer I wish that there was like I wish Mr Beast had like a presidential process like he you guys saw his Olympics video that he did last week where he brought people and he created this like these like five things I wish
that we had something like that to elect President that it was more than just oration because we elect the president today based on their oratory skills they go on stage and who has the best quippy comment the person who would be the most decisive Under Pressure doesn't necessarily win the person who can Inspire and attract and retain the best leadership the person who can have the best foreign policy interactions with
other leaders doesn't necessarily win those are skills that show up in other contexts and when we put people on a stage and we say okay speak to the audience the guy who speaks the best looks the best it's not necessarily the guy who is best equipped to handle the challenge of the Bay of Pigs or you know the decision on whether or not I think you're being very difficult I think you're being okay you have the floor this is like that's kind
of like saying why isn't it that it's the quarterback with the strongest arm that isn't the most successful why because that person is a [ __ ] loser and the person that's the winner is the one that can threat together a multi-faceted set of skills to win the game Tom Brady was drafted in the seventh round not the first round he wins the game because he has the requisite skills which is a basket of things and a Nuance of skills in
different moments at different times and so I think that you're being a little glib by saying the person isn't cool under pressure or this or that it's not true the people that win these races have a greater natural ability to be a complete
egoist but not a narcissist that is an incredibly Deft set of skills at a fair rare people have it gives them this energy to be out there talking to thousands and thousands and thousands and thousands of people may be saying
the same thing thousands of times but being able to stay focused being able to be on point having a sense of what they need to believe know the details in a certain part know the high level in another part stay Punchy but
stay affable stay that's the game there are a set of skills that it takes to become president you test the oration skills of a person when you put them on a debate stage you don't test the other complex skills that it takes to be
president and getting people to understand the complexity of the role and all the other aspects of someone's personality are lacking in these [ __ ] debates but there are other these other skills are in play and many things other than just the debate like the campaign is a highly sophisticated orchestration of running a small little government Mario Cuomo famously said that you campaign and poetry and and government
prose and there is a difference between campaigning skills and governing skills there is a gap there I would update it to say that you govern and prose and campaign and tweets you know so the campaign definitely puts a huge emphasis on a candidate's communication skills but that is not all just um gloss or style it also has to do with their policies and the nuances in their policies and how they handle pressure how good they are under
pressure and how good they are when they're attacked so you know we put these candidates through a pressure cooker and kind of learn who they really are I'm not sure it's a horrible process so sex let me ask you a question yeah
Pence has been in the Situation Room dealing with a foreign adversary Vivek has no military or defense experience he has no foreign State experience how do you assess vivec in his ability to address those critical issues that he's
going to have to lead us through versus someone who's been there and done that and you know give a great question great question okay trust him you trust me listen Pence made that argument against a vague apparently not realizing that
the guy he was vice president for was in that exact same position in 2016 no previous political experience right no experience being in the Situation Room the only reason why Pence got to warm his ass on a chair in the situation room
is because Donald Trump picked him to be his VP oh but he wasn't responsible for making any important decisions he was basically clock in time as vice president give me a break and that's why he's at what is it one or one percent no one gives a [ __ ] about Pence that's what they said about Obama as well Obama had zero experience Obama barely could get elected before he became Senator and then president in a matter of four years
and for Bush what happened to Bush they said that exact argument as well and what did they do they packed him with Rumsfeld and Cheney how did that end yeah I just want to also point out here that sometimes things get a little bit heated and when we get heated it's typically because we're we're triangulating around something very important I think what we're trying triangulating around here is that we are moving uh from an era of incumbents and
insiders to an Era of Outsiders if to your point sacks post-trump we now have the two or three most fascinating candidates are people uh who do social media who do podcasts who do earned media like we talked about I think two or three weeks ago it's a really good insight and vivekism has mastered it and he is exactly like Trump and he's exactly like Obama to a certain extent in that those people were incredibly personable they
knew how to talk on podcasts they knew how to engage people and I think that you know this spiciness that we're having here on the Pod and the spiciness that you're seeing with some of those candidates is that we're moving from
traditional media defining these candidates to direct to Consumer direct through Twitter acts direct through podcasts this podcast included making people like RFK and Vivek you know very palatable people and Ross Perot I know
I'm gonna get laughed after bringing this up who got 19 of the vote which is a serious number he went direct as well no he he got 90 pero because he actually went as an independent all the way and what Ross Perot did was the equivalent of what Vivek and RFK are doing on Pockets he bought television time you don't know that or some people in the audience might not understand who Ross Perot even is but look it up he bought
television time and he went direct to the country with our budget I thought this is going to be the future of politics what we're witnessing right now is the transition from traditional media and the establishment defining who the
great candidates are to the public and the people on podcasts and social media who are the tip of the spear on the Vanguard they're going to pick the winners and I think this could be the Tipping Point election Trump was the
first Obama than Trump and now Vivek and RFK so I just like you all to maybe respond to that especially you sex since you've got this orange media issue up two weeks ago I partially agree with Freeburg in in this sense look obviously track record is important obviously the ability to be an executive executive functioning is important for the chief executive of of our country so I'm not saying that we shouldn't look at that
kind of record and this is why was one of the reasons why I support DeSantis I think he's been a brilliant Governor he's done a superb job in the State of Florida he did the best job of all the governors during covid I think he did a better job than Trump did during covet so listen I think those things are important where I disagree is just because Mike Pence has again warmed a chair in The Situation Room as vice president to me that's just not
that relevant experience I mean the VP is kind of a nothing job unless something terrible happens to the president they get tapped on the shoulder so I just disagree with what is relevant experience second I think it's important to recognize that the reason why Vivek has a lane here and the reason why Trump had a lane in 2016 is that the establishment wing of the party is so completely out of touch with what the base wants look the reason why
Trump came out of nowhere in 2016 is he basically turned everything on his head he said no more bushes no more of these stupid Forever wars in the Middle East we need to build a wall no more of this open border policy and we need to reset our tribulation with China those were three Mega issues that no one else in the party was talking about and the the mega issue today is Ukraine 95 of the bases against it and they have left the
fake this gigantic Lane to exploit why I don't know I mean they're trapped in Legacy neocon thinking that the US that was I think that was a great moment It's a combination of being trapped in Legacy thinking where we have to be the policeman in the world combined with all the big donors in the party okay many of whom are wrapped up with the military industrial complex want to contribute to that people can you just say it again
what you feel like I'm not hearing no I think that being president requires being better more than just an orator and I think that the debates allow the best orator to show off their skills and capabilities on the debate stage I was
saying I wish that there were other events I would love to see some set of systems to expose the candidate's success or failings and how well equipped they are rather than the person who can just give the best interview we
all know this when you interview a candidate an engineer the engineer that gives the best interview is not necessarily going to become the best engineer you can look at their code to see if they're a great engineer you can
talk to people that report it to them to see if they're a great manager you can learn more about their success and skills through more than just their oration on the stage and yes there's data in fact that we can pull from these
people I was just speculating in kind of a pseudo-silly way about the concept of can we do more than just put people on a debate how do you hire a CEO for your companies well yeah what I'll tell you we don't do is we don't have the employees elect the CEO through a vote by having that CEO go in front I don't know but you're saying no I'm not the best guy for the job interview is part of it but you can interview we do reference calls right we
we talked to them about their strategy and you know through the interview through the reference calls through looking at the performance of other businesses they've built and run and you know that can have a wholesome understanding of his candidacy and his ability to be president my point is I think that there are certain things like with Trump that had not been tested or tried that are going to come up in this role that
they'd never done before in the past and I'm not saying look by the way I'm certainly not a big you know political career guys you guys know I think you know I I hate that people build a career around politics I think it's the most inane ridiculous thing and if we could go back and rewrite the Constitution that's probably the first thing I put in there the thing with the this line of thinking that maybe this is where I
reacted so I apologize if I personalized it is that it creates the risk of exactly what you just said in this what you just said right now which is this blob class of people that use those arguments as the reason why change can't
happen yeah why it might I don't disagree with that I don't disagree with that and I think that is the huge red flag about this line of argumentation around why out of the box candidates can't be evaluated by reasonably smart
people of which there are 300 million of us in America that have the ability to see it and so I actually don't think it's as hard of a job as we make it out to be and that when you get 180 190 million different people voting I do
think you actually get a pretty good wisdom of the crowds and take away Trump's UI for a second what sax just said is so profound because like what Trump nailed was three ginormous lanes that turned out now we can all agree with none of us
wanted these wars everybody basically believes in that the Border needed to be closed and everybody believes that China has taken advantage in a way that has really hollowed out the middle class in America those were three totems that nobody would have touched and if we had allowed this whole thing of like oh Trump doesn't have this Trump doesn't have that he just gives cute nicknames to his advert series we would have missed that he actually had
enough executive function to nail the three biggest themes of our current lifetime okay I think that's fair I guess my commentary can just be reduced down to the debate stage and saying who won and who should be is different than who should be president necessarily looking at the broader context presidential but the presidential candidacy is much more than just his debates okay yes there's a lot of other things going on if we're judging people
just based on how well they talk and how quick on their feet they are Chris Christie is a great talker okay he's a media trained talker but guess what he got booed that was yeah it's a debate the dull point of the debate for me was that he I thought took a kind of like a low-key racist jab at Vivek when he was let me read it first person yeah the last person in one of these debates who stood in the middle of the stage and
said what's a skinny guy with an odd last name doing up here was Barack Obama I'm afraid we're dealing with the same type of amateur standing on the stage tonight you felt was a little no not that it's when you thought that was Vivek like chat GPT essentially enough already of a guy who sounds like Chachi PT standing yeah here's like this Indian tech worker and I thought hey man that's what you read into it that's interesting
I thought he was just saying he sounded as a Salvation Tech worker that's right that he was um that he was uh very like robotic and formulaic or something but what did you how did you read it because uh has the palace white guy on the panel
there was something almost personal about the way that both Christy and Pence seem to reactive and make it was almost like who are you you young whippersnapper to be on the stage with me especially Pence I've been the vice
president who are you you know here's what his quotes were dismissive and I think there was a resentment that even before this debate but vague was rising in the polls and those guys were going nowhere let me explain it and again it's not just oratorical skill it's the substance yes of the issues and where he's willing to go that these other candidates are not here are the quotes to respond to let me explain it to you Vivek
I'll go slower this time now is not the time for on-the-job training and we don't need to bring in a rookie all this dismissive stuff from Pence to Vivek got some Applause because you know conflict and confrontation gets applaused by these lunatics in the audience who were like it was like well you also get an allocation of seats for your own team so yes and why Pence was VP is because a rookie got elected president yeah that's a very
good it's a good side yeah that was very weird I thought the thing that was very interesting listen not to make it all about Trump but he was the quote-unquote elephant that was not in the room was the un uh dying
support for Pence you had everybody say Pence did the right thing on January 6th what would you take away from that sacks because there were some there was a mix of booze and cheers for Christy when he kind of said like we need somebody who
doesn't behave this way it's Unbecoming of the presidency referring to Trump so what was your take on is the Republican party in this audience trying to move past Trump given all these indictments I'm going to leave the Trump Stockholm syndrome and Trump derangement syndrome out of this just objectively yeah I thought DeSantis had the best response which is listen if we spend our time relitigating January 6 and looking in
the rear view mirror we're going to lose to Joe Biden this is exactly the conversation and the debate that Democrats want us to be having I think that's factually true that if the Republican Party spends his time debating January 6 that's playing into Biden's hands so you don't think Trump can necessarily be Biden that these other candidates have a better chance of beating Biden is that what you mean it's a question focusing focusing on
relitigating okay January 6 is not only is it a waste of time it's just a loser for republicans and by the way it's Trump's worst quality to keep hearkening back to the last election even I think his fans and supporters don't want to
hear that who has a better chance of winning some pairing of these candidates sacks or Trump and one of these candidates versus Biden heads up you know does uh something like DeSantis Vivek or Haley and Vivek you know pick
your combination here have a better chance versus Biden than Trump plus one of these I think it's tough to say but I I do think that Trump has really high negatives and in order for him to win the presidency he's got to flip something like two or three out of five states like swing states that voted against him last time and I do think that this is one of the stronger arguments that DeSantis makes is that you know I could deliver those
States whereas Trump may not so I think there is an electability argument for DeSantis okay and so Friedberg hearing all this by the way I'm not saying that that's what's going to happen but I I do think we know that Trump does have very high negatives and yeah he's gonna have to flip some States before he's going to have a lot of Democrats and women come out to vote against him he supercharges the base in the way Hillary charged the other way
because I say one other thing about of course to say it's just performance in that debate so I know that he doesn't stand out in the way that you know vivekers and these other candidates do because he didn't
deliver any zingers and also he wasn't the brunt of attack I think we all thought that maybe there'd be a lot more incoming for him and the incoming really went for Vivek but I think that he had a strategy in that debate this is my interpretation
it's not based on yeah go ahead any Insider knowledge or anything like that which was the way he answered questions was I think to be broadly acceptable to all the different factions in the GOP so like I mentioned there's kind of the mega faction there's the neocon faction and there's the religious right faction and his answers may not have been the ones that were most loved by any of those factions but I also think that
none of his answers disqualified himself with any of those factions which is kind of hard to do given how much they're at each other's throats so sax if this was a poker tournament and this was the final table would you say the strategy for DeSantis was Hey listen I'm going to let these other guys shoot it out I'm just gonna sit on my big chip stack here I'm in second place you got let me let let's let the field eliminate themselves I'm
gonna just protect my stack I'm not gonna play a lot of hands here he's just sort of sitting and waiting for it to get down to three or four people and then he'll mix it up some more is that the strategy I think he came across as the grown-up nobody really took swipes at him or shots at him and he didn't really take shots anybody else he did again try to focus the Republican party on what it's going to take to win he was one of the only
people on that stage who had criticism of Biden I think it was a mistake not to criticize Biden's record that was such a weird thing that they were all going after Trump nothing about Biden the only attacks on Biden that I even
remember from that and I were from Trump's interview with Tucker where he criticized oh God he he destroyed criticized Biden's lack of physical and mental acuity but look I think that if if the convention were ultimately to be
a broker convention which all the different factions of the GOP had to agree on a candidate then I think this answers would be that candidate because he may not be the candidate who is most loved by any of those factions but I think he's made himself the most broadly acceptable to all of them the problem is I don't think that's the way that candidates are chosen you know I think that what happens in practice is that
the factions are trying to feed each other and that one faction is going to win and I think it's probably going to be the mega faction so that's the problem I think with the strategy but look he came across the grown-up and he came across
as the most broadly acceptable okay so if uh this is a final table of a poker tournament and Trump is going to sit down and debate three of these people who's going to be left to debate Trump and be the final three or four seats
here which three I think it'll be DeSantis Vivek and it'll be either Tim scottron to give interesting Friedberg who are the final three who are going to debate Trump you know in debate number four or five I don't know if he's gonna show up I don't know why he would if he's up 50. I mean it would be it would just be such a trump move to not show up to any of these debates and just like get elected play the game how incredible a debate
would that be if it was from DeSantis and Vivek fireworks my fourth would be Nikki Haley I think she did a good she had her moments in that debate I think she had good advice for the Republican party on the abortion issue yeah she did a really great job she pointed out how you know much money I thought that was a tea party moment for her that's when I warmed up to Nikki Haley a bunch and she's like listen we also approved you
know six eight trillion dollars we gotta look at ourselves and it was like okay is it the Tea Party 2010 here I thought that was a great moment who do you who do you have left Freeburg everybody else played the game play along who will be
the final three here to debate Trump if Trump shows up play along for the game I mean I'll give mine Vivek seems to be in a good place okay I don't know does Santa sends a lot of money yeah he's probably gonna stick
around yeah so Vivek and DeSantis are we all have consensus Nikki Haley here's the crazy Christian look I don't think he's gonna show up we got your we got your point yeah yeah you're critical of the fact that the vague is having a boom or a surge based on his oratorical skills which I think you regard as being a shot away but you're showing no enthusiasm for DeSantis who actually has a track record of being the most capable executive oh
no no I'm not by the way I didn't I'm not we're not talking about who I would vote for president we haven't even had that comment like we didn't even ask that question once okay so ask it now putting aside Trump who do you pick what
was really interesting is hearing the governors speak about their skills I think Nikki Haley Chris Christie bergum DeSantis all had moments where they Shine from from Hutchinson from my perspective from a Content perspective
which is where I was talking about at the beginning which people largely ignore which is that they actually had quite a lot to draw from and you know certain policy that seemed pretty strong here we go final question final question I want you to give me your one and two not Trump Saks we know DeSantis is number one for you so then who's who's your number two to pair with him who would you pair with me what to be the candidate to be that
the ticket Republican ticket you're gonna go to santus one and then who do you put with them as a number two well for me to Santa send I think that the only candidates who have acceptable answers on What I regard as the number
one issue of our time which is Ukraine because that could lead to World War III the only candidates of acceptable answers are Trump of vacant DeSantis meaning they've all been pretty clear they would de-escalate I think all the
other candidates have basically indicated in one way or another so those three candidates are the only ones that are acceptable to me okay so we take Trump off if Trump doesn't run which that's my personal belief but just of the people who are on stage last night you're going to santis Vivek is your ticket who's your ticket after one debate not counting Trump if if the Republican ticket who do you think is Republicans I like to buy these deep out
of the money options I think we'll go out on the limb I think that Vivek has a really good chance of winning this Republican nomination that's what I saw I saw like outright against Trump yeah and we're taking a trump off the table so just picking up for example for example no no no no I really do think he's he can in this thing and for example I thought it was very clever when he said that he had a line he said
Donald Trump was the best let me be categorically clear Donald Trump was the best president of the 21st Century and I was like what and then I thought about it and I thought why is he saying it does he say it because he believes it or is he saying because it's like a a tactic and there's probably bits of both yep because I do think that there are elements where he fundamentally does believe that Trump has at least shined the path
forward and so I think he does believe it to some degree but then I thought it's even smarter to have said it and again this is where I go back to I'm not sure that that's oratory skills versus like understanding you know Game Theory
strategy and and strategy and being a strategic thinker and trying to win I thought that that was a very smart thing to have said and all along that evening I thought that he did the best job of preserving optionality for the Trump
base to say you know what Vivek is all of the positive features of Trump without some of the negatives so let's just clean up the ticket and let's go again there's a long way yeah I like the call I like the call but who's number to
buy that deep out of the money option and who's your number two then we're going one two here one two here either as to pair with a vague or your number two choice in terms of no then I if defect doesn't figure out a way to
slipstream past Trump the Trump will win the nomination okay taking Trump out of the rest who's your number two okay great fascinating to see this happening I agree with what a lot of what jamas said yeah I think Vivek is positioning himself to be the backup candidate for the Maga Wing yep and he's doing it by never attacking Trump and by commenting him by the way saying that Trump was the best president of the 21st century there's
only been three it was George W bush Obama and then Trump right oh sorry Biden sorry Biden's has been four George W Bush was one of the worst Presidents in American history yeah so it's easier Obama obviously a republican candidate is not going to think highly of Obama or Biden so it kind of narrows it down doesn't it yeah the intelligence of actually saying the words yeah I know I agree sax what do you think
about vivek's unpopular statement and it may I'd like to hear whether it's unpopular with the bass but it was certainly unpopular in the room last night that the climate change agenda is a hoax which drew a lot of booze
that was is that like is that a lightning bolt kind of thing to say why would he say that and what's the strategy it's like Trump saying he loves coal and he loves coal miners it's just painful to me a little bit like he was trying to
see which agenda is a hoax meaning like all the ESG stuff is nonsense exactly but it comes across as him saying climate change isn't real and he's got to now deal with it climate change is strategic I think it's um but I don't I don't think you know what he believes Jake help but yeah his follow-up comment around that was he said that it is an economic yoke on our country because the combination of subsidies and the lack of expansion of carbon is
what's holding back the country economically so that's I think I remember him tying these two things together so that's that's probably where the state is no intelligent person doesn't believe that the planet's not heating up come on and that it's not better to go to Renewables that's just how do you know if you looked at the science Jacob of course I have yes it's a massive consensus on the science you know as deep as a person needs to go
free bird you just treat it look it's just something you're supposed to believe in no I'm I'm not saying that I just don't have the statistics of how the plan that's it I will say sax is right that it has become a thing that it's like we're all supposed to take as given no one is going to go up and say Here's the science that validates here's the data that validates here's there's there's some empirical evidence and then people
use counter empirical evidence to try and counter it and that's what makes it a little bit of a a movement now which is the institutions the elites however they're framed have been wrong so many times on the things that they told us were given that we're supposed to assume that this is a given to F that I'm not going to be told what to believe anymore and I don't want to be told what to believe anymore is exactly what people
let me let me State my position that's what they heard from that song last week and that's what they heard you know in physics let me State my position I totally agree yeah here's the thing you know after covid without me even making a comment on climate change 100 we've told so much [ __ ] in the name of science during covet yeah they told us the vaccines were safe and effective I just want to clarify my position before you respond to it
it's undeniable that temperatures have risen I think it's a crazy experiment to run to not try to lower it it's just a crazy experiment the planet is precious I don't think we should run it I am not dogmatic about it it's not a religious thing I'm not genuine experiment we're running Jacob it's called human development and growth yes and the temperature goes up so why wouldn't we use Renewables when not pollute because not polluting is is good
too when you have self-proclaimed scientific experts and or 16 year old girls shaming everybody with pretty flimsy data there was a while where we where everybody just said Mom they must be right and covet exposed the hoax and so now we're a lot less prone to believe these self-proclaimed intellectuals and their jargon and their nonsense so ask me how much money have I invested in climate change with all that data zero
ask me how much money I've invested in technologies that will benefit climate change as a byproduct of National Security hundreds of millions of dollars yes and the reason I give you that example is that for me that framing was
just such a turn off because I couldn't buy into it yeah there are multiple reasons the more pragmatic realistic framing which allowed us to actually say maybe you're right but maybe you're wrong but let's not even debate the
issue let's just go and make sure we're not dependent on another country and fighting endless Wars that got me off my ass to do stuff and I think there's a lot of people in America that are in that second category they don't want absolutely emotionally riddled Dogma to drive their life and how they're forced to make decisions you can come up with three or four really good reasons to not keep burning fossil fuels they're dirty
they're pollutants there are better options that are more sustainable that are more cost effective it's more cost effective to put solar in than to burn coal or build a new coal plant so there's economic reasons we're automatically going to trust
I'm not blindly trusting anybody I'm taking the body of evidence and saying that entire body of evidence geopolitical really looked at the evidence I don't believe in gunship on this issue okay anyway I haven't gone
deep on this issue that's all I'm saying listen to what I'm saying if you listen as opposed to telling me what I think and you listen to what I'm telling you there are many reasons to pursue sustainable energy clean energy and
geopolitics is one of them and you know uh polluting the environment is one of them and temperatures Rising if that indeed results in Damages to the oceans and you know weather patterns there are five or six great reasons to
stop burning coal and stop burning oil look at these two climate whitewashers we're living in In This Moment people were so convinced they just needed to Royal the country around the hurricane hitting California then by the time it landed it was a storm there was rain in Los Angeles I asked people here when I got here I said how is Hurricane they're like it wasn't a hurricane and in fact the news were so tilted about it they had to call it it
could have been a hurricane ratings second is this thing in Maui it turns out Michael schellenberger has done some pretty good work on this is exposing that a lot of the reason these fires may have started was because of this radical climate agenda that caused the utility to not invest in the protective measures they should have around power lines that is crazy Jason oh yeah I'm not defending what happened in Maui it's obviously incompetence we
should be bearing we have the same issue in California which is dogmatic belief there's a consequence I'm not saying you are I'm trying to make this point when people dogmatically believe Bodies of Evidence that they themselves don't interrogate fully they may it may lead them to conclusions and then actions that you are now seeing have measurable human consequences if you look at PG e in California it's riddled with these issues yeah they shut
our power off because they're afraid that wind is going to blow down power lines and start fires yeah I mean and we just need to bury them so so I think that it would be great to like not debate the climate issue put a pin in it
and instead just say we all want our kids to be able to have clean air around us we want clean water to drink and we want to make sure that we have the resources to be productive as human beings without having to send our kids
to war or without putting the country in danger 100 which is exactly my point there are so many reasons to take this serious especially and move to Renewables and nuclear all right listen this has been an insanely great episode hey uh let me just get one person's comments so here's your here's your uh red meat for uh Saks here it sounds like there was uh the the the coup um 60 days later the guy who was running the coup in Russia
had a little accident it's so Random uh maybe your thoughts sex you're talking about burgosian yeah I mean he had some mechanical difficulties on his PJ I don't know what happened is he not sending that citation in for maintenance what happened they had a bad engine or something it's so Random poor guy the latest reporting from The New York Times this morning is that Ferguson's plane was not shot shot down but rather they believe there was an
explosive device on it oh okay so we don't know you know we don't know exactly but it was a bird strike something random like a bird strike no no somebody took him out somebody took him off the board really oh it must have been it must have been Ukraine right that's who you're putting it on it's Ukraine no I mean I think it's probably pretty obvious who did it although we won't know for sure listen I think allegedly yeah allegedly
that's what you always say whenever Hunter Biden's accused of doing something you always have to answer it allegedly there was a little cocaine and maybe some bribes I think this resolves the question of who came out on top
during that Mutiny there were a lot of people speculating that somehow progosian at the upper hand or he was paid off right remember there was a line of thinking oh this wasn't a coup if it wasn't a coup then why did Putin Whack
Him backpack and it was exactly 60 days later is that correct that was the other thing is that gonna ask a question how funny is it then it's like Putin's like paper goes and come come and see me we're good nothing to worry about it and then it's like listen where are you going to the blocks yeah you can take my pj and he's like see you later oh thanks for the ride free bird I told you it's like Michael Corleone
apparently there's a meeting about a month ago I remember it being reported where pregosian and the other heads of Wagner came to meet with Putin and the deal that Putin supposedly offered was that Wagner could stay together but they had to report to the Russian military and the Wagner commanders were on board with it but one person objected and that was pregosian oh so it's a little bit like remember that the meeting between Michael
Corleone and mo Green in Vegas you know Michael's like think of a price and mo Green's like you don't buy me out I buy you one yeah that kind of reaction yep and the guy had some sort of Death Wish I guess you know what they say
beware the dog that doesn't bark Putin said nothing for the last two months he was like yeah it's all good nothing out of the Putin camp and then boom Putin is a murderous lunatic who must be stopped and contained well I think
that's the opposite of being a lunatic I think this is somebody who is very cold and calculating okay yeah murderous calculated sociopath he figured out how to defuse a mutiny I don't think it was a fullanku but a mutiny that would have
been very disruptive to his front line if he had basically tried to violently suppress it so he cuts a deal where basically he offers banishment to Belarus pregosian was supposed to go to Belarus by the way we don't know exactly
why pagosian returned to Moscow or St Petersburg he was supposed to be staying in Belarus or Africa so maybe he violated the terms of his probation we don't know there were all these people on social media who were pinning their hopes for regime change and liberal reform within Russia on pregosian which was always absurd because he was this warlord whose behavior and conduct was even more erratic and violent than Putin so he was
never going to be a great vessel for Liberal reform in Russia nonetheless they're all these people who pinned their hopes for regime change in Russia on pregosian we can see now what a stupid idea that was
the Russian regime whether you like it or not is stable is not unstable Russia is winning the war and you may hate Putin but he is still a master of Russia and eventually we're gonna have to deal with him these fantasies that we're gonna be able
to regime change him I think are absurd and they've led us to this horrible Point okay for the dictator for the Sultan of Science and it's focused SAS sex with the slick back hair I am the world's greatest we'll let your winners ride Rain Man David said we open source it to the fans and they've just gone crazy [Music] besties [Music] it's like this like sexual tension that they just need to release somehow [Music] foreign [Music]