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oh we're live welcome to technology Brothers the most profitable podcast in the world today we're doing a deep dive on deep seek the new AI model coming out of China they say they trained it for just $500 less than this cash stack but we'll dig into that because it's a Hot
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Topic a lot of people are debating about this but we wanted to take you back to May of last year when deep seek actually lost launched uh it's in the news because they launched a new model but the company's been out there open sourcing llms for for something like 6
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months now and uh it's it's shaking up the timeline the timeline's in turmoil over timeline's in turmoil yeah uh and I'll go out on a limp to say this is China's next attempt at a DJI Tik Tock type yep uh product where hey let's basically sell this product in America
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for way less than it costs H give it away for free try to get a bunch of uh important you know companies using it or or consumers dependent on it and then uh you know it's a little bit of you know spyware yeah correct the data yeah there's all the same geopolitical
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considerations that we walk through and there's the incentive you know for them if you know if it you know you can basically assume that any important Chinese company company is uh you know backed by the state to some degree even if they're not they're sort of uh uh you
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know got a gun to their head the entire time they're operating it so we're excited to get into this one uh you know as our as our mission at technology Brothers is to you know entertain cover some news and take down CCP fronts so exactly let's get into it so let's kick
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it off with a fantastic analysis uh by Dylan Patel in semi analysis this is from uh May 7th of 2024 and it's interesting and Dylan is for those that don't know he's he's the Tom Brady of semiconductor analysis 100% uh he's the kind of guy that gets invited on BG Square to he's been on
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dogs you know how how the how the semis are barking these things yeah I mean it's a fantastic uh it's essentially substack subscription model $500 a year um but then he also does a ton of Consulting and what's interesting is that he doesn't just uh read the 10ks or
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anything like he will task satellites to like figure out where they're building stuff and like really collect dat and he sells doing the same thing that hedge funds doing it's more so so I think I think semi analys is actually like a pretty large company now with a number
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of analysts and he's not going the kind of like solo Creator route um he's very much focused on building like a a research organization but uh he's also just hilarious on podcasts like very free flowing just says whatever he wants like totally uses very online lingo too
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in these very professional settings which is great I'm a big fan see it so so this is the title of this is open AI is doomed to M Microsoft and it's kind of uh walking through a bull and bare case for open AI given all of the different uh Dynamics and different
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cluster build outs that were happening mid last year and it starts by saying all eyes are on how long the profitless spending on AI continues h100 rental pricing is falling every month this was a big Trend last year uh in 2023 chat upt was blowing up and everyone was like
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I will do anything if someone can get me a rack of A1 100s a lot of VC exactly and Andromeda um but in 2024 rental pricing went down as fewer firms realized that hey maybe they don't want to be in the pre-training game they just want to fine-tune or they just want to
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build they want to be rappers essentially um and then also the really really big firms might just be building super clusters that didn't even affect the rental pricing market and so availability is growing quickly for medium-sized clusters at fair pricing
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despite this it's clear that demand Dynamics are still strong while the big Tech firms are still the largest buyers there is an increasingly diverse roster of buyers around the world still increasing GPU purchasing sequentially most of the exuberance isn't due to any
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short any sort of Revenue growth but rather due to the rush to build ever larger models based on dreams about future business the clear Target that most have in mind is matching open Ai and even surpassing them today many firms are within spitting distance of
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open ai's latest GPT 4 in chatbot ELO and in some ways and in some ways such as context length and video modalities some firms are already ahead so context length that's the Google thing where drop an entire book drop an entire book in uh in Gemini and drop your entire
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Banger archive exactly and so uh there's been a bunch of ways to differentiate even if you you just get close to gp4 you do a similar run and then you build a different tool around it or you fine tun or you build different uh like you know un hobbling so this one uses the
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web this one can process PDFs this one can you don't really hear about mistra much anymore no heard is that because the French don't have a word for entrepreneur I like that oh yeah it's the uh it's the Ry Ry Peterson they were trying to community note him on that but I don't think they
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got it through that's great it's probably a war uh so Gemini 2 ultra is rumored to surpass GPT 42 turbo in every way furthermore meta llama 345b is also going to match gbt 4 while being open SCE meaning gp4 class intelligence will be available to anyone
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who can rent an h100 server but he goes on to mention the Phoenix from the East it's not just the big Tech firms that have rapidly caught up yesterday real quick one one kind of interesting comparison is it it feels like uh the models have fast approached being almost
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like the sports car market where it's like uh Porsche can be like well we have better handling and mlar can be like well we're faster in a straight line ex and Tesla's like well I'm fastest in the straight line you know so they're all just sort of competing doing a lot of
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things pretty well uh and then competing on these edge cases that almost the average and the reason that chat GPT has stayed very dominant from a user standpoint is because they have the consumer mind share the average person is not like prompt engineering they
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don't care about the context window they're just almost using it like a Google that can do things on your yeah I mean and this was one of the big like be cases for these L llm companies after chat PT dropped was like well is everyone just going to train these and
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it's going to be completely commoditized um but then the companies kind of figured out well if grock is a little bit less PC that's an edge and if Gemini has a bigger context window but there's some fascinating stuff in here about how the different big tech companies are
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able to integrate their models and actually bootstrap to much larger user bases which results in getting more data from users which is very interesting um but he highlights deep seek which launched in May of 24 uh it says China's deep seek open sourced a new model that
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is both cheaper to run than meta meta's llama 370b and better so this was not as big of news because it wasn't truly better than GPT 4 so it kind of slid under the radar but it was cheap on inference meaning you just needed less um less compute to actually run it and this is
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to be clear the same thing that China has done historically with uh DJI where DJI is selling products at with without any profit margin at all uh potentially even Lo losing money on a unit basis because they just want to get the product out into the world getting used
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getting consumed yep um and so uh and not too dissimilar in my view uh to Tik Tok faking views right because they're like well if users come on here they post something they get a th views they're not going to want to go on Instagram and post the same content and
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get 200 views right that sort of and and and and uh I mean the Chinese censorship is already a it says uh while the model is more tuned for Chinese language queries because that's the tokenizer and the training data set and government censorship of certain ideas it it does
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happen to win in the Universal languages of code in and don't ask don't ask deep Seek about the Wagers your laptop will explode uh not that uh deep seek claims that a single node of 8X h800 gpus can achieve more than uh 50,000 decode tokens per second per second Peak
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through put uh at the quoted API pricing of output tokens alone that is $50 of Revenue per node per hour the cost for an H uh for an adx h00 h00 h800 node in China is about $15 an hour so assum assuming perfect utilization deep SE can make as much as
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$35 an hour per server or up to 70% gross margins this is what we were talking about yesterday with uh you know as you as you make these models more inference uh optimal yeah you get higher margins and that's and that's a lot of what deep seek has been kind of lauded
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for and it even says uh even more interesting is the novel architecture deep seek has brought to Market they did not just copy what western firms did there's a lot of stuff that they did copy and there's a lot of data that they probably stole and there's a lot of
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weird political things where they maybe broke rules and laws but they did they did create some fundamental Innovations technically on the algorithm side and I think that this whole story is going to be complex because people are going to want to take one side or the other and
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just say oh it's it's a complete copycat they're lying about everything there's nothing interesting here or it's amazing it's the biggest breakthrough and and they need to boil it down to a single tweet and that's why I'm glad we have an hour to there's two there there's it's
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such an interesting thing where they're coming out with an open- Source product that they are undercutting the entire Market on and but it's this it's hard to be it's hard to say oh you know they're simultaneously putting everything out there while there's clearly stuff
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happening behind the scenes that we don't really know about right and so we we'll get into a little bit of the background but they do seem pretty cracked uh there are brand new Innovations in mixture of experts roope and attention their model has more than
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160 experts with six riding oh no the phone fell too much Chinese it's too many notifications yeah yeah yeah um well back to the show furthermore deep seek implemented a novel multi-head latent attention mechanism which they claim has better scaling than other forms of attention
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while also being more accurate they trained on 8.1 trillion tokens deeps V2 was able to achieve incredible training efficiency with better model performance than other models at 1th the compute of meta's llama 370b and so uh for those keeping track
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deep seek V2 training required 12th as much energy essentially 12th the flops of gpc4 while not being far off in perform perance and so then he goes on to to talk about uh you know is is Microsoft committed to open AI there's a big discussion there that's kind of old
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news and I mean the new new the new news there is that SAA is uh you know Sub sub tweeting Sam in elon's comments so that shows a little bit of uh you know maybe the marriage isn't perfect under the hood and this is this is something that he does bring up throughout the piece
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and throughout a lot of these analyses which we talk about it really he really was early to this idea of satcha saying I'm good for my 80 billion and what does that really mean well it's Azure workloads and this is something that happens a lot where Zuck will say oh
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yeah I just bought 200,000 Nvidia gpus and then we dig into it and you're like oh well like a half of that is going to uh recommendation algorithms for reals and and that's great like it's it's cool they have the infrastructure but it's not all llm AGI race training which is
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what people are really focused on so I'm moving on to page 7 is distribution and integration King with deep seek and llama 345b coming to the open source there is very little reason did you before that did you want to cover Microsoft trying to reduce there I kind
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cover that the sense that uh you know like the closer here is that many firms use open ai's technology through Azure more than 65% of Fortune 500 now use Azure open AI service it's noteworthy that this is not directly through open aai open AI can lose significant
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Business Without Google deepmind or Amazon anthropic gaining share simply by Microsoft pushing its own model their own model instead and so uh he was just kind of commenting in in this piece about the like the temperature in the room with regard to the uh Microsoft and
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openingi deal at the time but it but that story has evolved so much we've covered it so much I don't think we need to dig into that i' rather focus on this distribution and integration is King section with uh with deep with deep seek and llama coming to the open source
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there's very little reason for Enterprises not to host their own model Zuckerberg's strategy of using open source models to slow down competition uh commercial comp the competition's commercial adoption and attract more Talent is working wonders so everyone's
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like why is he open sourcing this thing like this is very expensive and it was all about getting people to come work at meta on this cool project and then also curb more companies from from bu doing build outs because they're like what's the point and this is probably the
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pressure that we felt on um Aiden Gomez coh here right and maybe even mraw where it's like well if your whole thing is like the open source or like you're like not the true Frontier compounder winner well you're you're you're just never going to be able to make any money
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because the open source one's going to come out yeah it's going to be a little bit behind GPT 5 or gbg4 but if Zuck keeps open sourcing it you're just never going to make any money and so it's going to be really hard so he's keeping the pressure on and then also because of
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data bricks which we've talked about before data bricks lets you fine-tune really easily and so uh it's no long like fine tuning is no longer a Monumental task and so one of open ai's advantages is that they have been ahe in collecting data specifically usage data
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and that that happens when you uh sometimes when you issue a query to GPT for chat GPT it'll say hey we actually give you two which one do you like more and then you can ab or every post will have a thumbs up thumbs down and then also they will they they'll be able to
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just see okay did you follow up with another query so they're collecting lots of data and they have hundred 100 million users but he says only quarter of Americans have ever ever even tried chat GPT and most don't continue to use it most future consumer llm usage will
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go through existing platforms Google Instagram WhatsApp Facebook iPhone Android while meta hasn't found out how to monetize it their meta AI powered by llama 370b is available across Facebook WhatsApp and Instagram the announced roll out the announced roll out has been
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extended to 14 countries including the US so they've hit 1.1 billion in population but they have 3.2 billion daily active users and so they're scaling up and when they do they get all that data from and then they can use that to find tune the next version of
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the model Mark imagine being Mark and you're already halfway through yeah your your Tam yeah and and you're trying to get these incremental users that just don't have internet they're like well they they were focused on that for a while they were like we are going to
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bring satellite to afria Facebook meta could have probably almost launched a starling competitor with how much they spent on the metaverse oh yeah and then actually deliver the metaverse and the real metaverse is just reals they had a project for that Project Loon at Google
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which was internet via balloon via blimp essentially that's cool and and I believe in India there's a free Facebook uh like phone plan that you can get the internet and you only get Facebook so you kind of have to do everything or something like that you basically have
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to do everything through Facebook but but but it does it does bring more users online um and so all of that is all is all of that is feting both fine tuning data on the llm and then also just user data and preference data that goes into
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the system over saying if Apple was more creative would they not have just sent up their own satellite Network and just said you now are going to get all your yeah data from us and you don't need Verizon anymore that would have been cool probably more reliable um and So
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Meta deployment probably hurts Google search more than bang or perplexity ever will because people will just wind up searching in Facebook and Instagram to serve 3 billion people you clearly need to have a small and efficient model to bring the cost of inference down
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especially when you're not making money on it you're not charging 20 or $20 a month or $200 a month um either meta has made the financial math work or is prepared to invest heavily to execute a land grab in the consumer AI space either spell disaster for incumbents
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yeah and that's uh the difference between Apple and meta where meta is still in founder mode Apple Google are in manager mode yep and they're willing to invest Google obviously has to show their investors and the markets that they investing and serious about winning
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AI race yeah but it doesn't actually look that ambitious Y in practice well speaking of ambition at non potentially non-founder mode companies uh the other argument to be made is if compute and capital are King in that case Google is King given their hyper aggressive TPU
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buildout pace so Google has has created their own chip to rival the GPU called the TP the tensor Processing Unit it's it's fabbed at tsmc I believe um and so but but it's designed specifically just for AI workloads so you can't even run video games on it essentially it's just
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for this much like the advanced 3ix no scope yeah yeah much like the advanced Nvidia stuff but um but Google is investing super heavily and definitely takes seriously the capex uh and so ironically Google now has focus and is directing all large scale training
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efforts into one combined Google deepmind team while Microsoft is starting to lose focus by directing resources to their own internal models that compete with open Ai and so Google they actually they Deep Mind used to be a separate company it was acquired
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demonus and uh that team and they were working kind of separately they finally it was Google brain and deep mind and they and they brought them all together because they were like the the capex is so intense you guys have to work on one big model instead of two smaller ones
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and so this is one of the biggest risks for open AI is that the Capital game is all that matters if that's the case the tech company that invests the most is the winner and this is why we're seeing project Stargate which we'll talk about later but um you know if Capital does
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matter open a needs to be in a place where they can have access to the absolute largest cluster yeah which is just which is why it's amazing that open AI has been able to do what they've done because Sam Alman I promise you does not care about some other startup that
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raised $30 million no he cares about these players that can invest $30 billion off their own balance sheet to compete with him and have distribution yep so it's not uh it's like the the most harrowing task to be honest where you take the one of the best fundraisers
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ever in the world yeah Sam Alman and then but you give him this impossible task of saying go compete with people who have balance sheets that DF your total Capital raised yeah and so I mean it really is insane I mean everyone's obviously still buying a ton of Nvidia
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but Microsoft has the least custom AI silicon deployed to their Cloud but they're working on it uh Google has the TP which is obviously the biggest but meta and Amazon are also ramping internal silicon and even Apple has Apple silicon which is only for the
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phones and the laptops now but clearly they have internal uh capabilities to develop custom silicon and so you could see them developing their own their own Hardware as well um open AI trained gbg4 in 2022 since then they've been entirely focused on The Next Step Up
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experimenting with new architecture data Etc open AI has a tremendous first mover advantage and they have been solidly targeting models an order of magnitude larger than everyone else for a while now so they have the first mover Advantage but every time they ship
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something new people dissect it and try to implement many of those Lear for sure for sure but they seem to just be like you know a little bit farther on the treadmill like just yeah yeah they're constantly ahead but then they're by nature of of the the product they have
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to expose some amount of yeah the to how it actually oh yeah in some of these it's just it's just like if there's a good idea like voice or upload a PDF it's like okay that's like a we features are easy but also the the how the machine works right yeah totally they
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they try and hide that but if there's just a few Secrets it's like one you know East Bay rationalist party where everyone's talking and all a s you know no it's so hard because people in startups like to like to Yap right there's no I'm sure they all have like
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really intense you know ndas and and and things like that but it's not like it's a government even Steph leaks out of the government right totally it's not as secure as as as that and so he kind of closes with uh this the the midwit meme of on the left this why this is why he's
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goated yeah yeah they selling these selling these memes to hedge funds for probably like a million of year description so as far as the Capital game is concerned Sam Alman is flying around the world winning the favor of many of the richest people in the world
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for a reason they will raise more money than anyone else is even imagining to spend on a single model after they showed the world what they've been cooking the last two years the real risk for big tech companies is that they do not show any meaningful gains in Revenue
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but they have to keep accelerating their spending to keep up with open AI or maintain market share in their Monopoly Google search this would cause data center capex party to keep going and consequently their margins to compress so it's interesting because there's
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almost like this expectation that it's like of course open AI loses money like they just became like a real for-profit it's a startup Sam's at the helm he's dealing with Masa it's this crazy thing they're going for AI if you're Google it's like you're a shareholder you're
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like wait why are your margins compressing like is this really that real like why don't you just partner with them like is this important well it's hard because Google needs to show that they're competitive with open AI but at the same time if they're
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margin everybody's a lot of people have been short Google because they're saying okay well these models are a threat to search and so if your if your margins are compressing because you're spending more while people are starting to use competitive products for search it's
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really hard for Sundar to go up at at a quarterly and be like yeah we're not really worried about this model stuff like he kind of has to put on a brave face for markets but you know that behind the scenes he's worried about his job yep the probably the be the number
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one candidate would be one of the founders yeah but and and it's this weird it's this weird bargain that actually kind of drives bubble behavior um where if you you're screwed if you over invest and AI is real you're great if you over invest and AI isn't real you still have you
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still have a lot of assets it's still valuable like there was a lot of dark fiber that wound up getting used later on so the like the the the risk reward calc calculation is like super weighted to overinvestment right now um so let's move on to uh the I don't know if it was
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an interview or just a some coverage of China's new face of AI deep seek founder leang when Fang this guy win Fong this guy is uh he's the next Frank Wang the next Frank Wang the founder of DJI we're learning I mean very similar Stories We we'll we'll
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dig into this but um this is from the uh uh by the way he looks incredibly good for 40 he looks like he's like 22 he does look 22 he's 40 whoa okay yeah uh which again he you know we we we don't know if anything they say is real maybe Twi might be like Bill mantis oh yeah be
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like Bill mantis a little little age Gambit going on yeah a lot of people in Hollywood doing that change of the ages so uh deep seek is in the news again because they launched R1 which is their reasoning model that competes with 01 um and uh there's a post explaining who
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this guy is and where deep seek came from that we're going to read through now so the founder of artificial intelligence firm deep seek touted as 202's biggest Darkhorse in the open source large language model Arena emerged as the industry's new face in
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China at a symposium hop uh hosted by the premier in Beijing on Monday uh leang W Fong 40 took part in the meeting where a select group of Industry experts in the fields of Technology education science Etc offered their opinions and suggestions uh according to the news
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agency and so last December they made waves in the global AI industry after benchmark test showed that its deep seek version 3 llm which again is not the reasoning model this is more just like a GPT competitor which was built on a shering budget which we'll discuss if
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that's real or not I have to put that in the truth Zone yeah outperformed rival models developed with more resources by the likes of meta platforms and chat gbt Creator open AI um uh lee called on the economy's new growth drivers know because we don't
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have images pulled up he is wearing a suit here which we love to see we love to see it we got to give him some credit he looks very young for his age he's wearing a suit so we're going to we're going to really put him in the truth Zone hard in a bit but and so recently
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aing made AI a national priority amid heightened a heightened Tech war between the United States and China the world's two largest economies China's ai ai Market is expected to be worth 765 billion US by 2030 according to state-backed investment vehicle China
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international Capital Corp uh in the age of AI geopolitics tech companies inevitably would have tighter connections with governments than before says Winston ma a New York University law professor um and so apart from being a regulator governments could be a sovereign investor or a crossborder deal
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mediator and we're already seeing that with the chips act um and so uh investment is going to be massive something like over a trillion dollar invested over the next six years in China's AI industry and that's funny that they're that they're saying that
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they're going to invest 1.4 trillion because that's three times what project Stargate is so you know maybe this is well Stargate to be clear they've marketed as a is a infrastructure product for one company yeah it was very nicely positioned as oh this is for
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America it was pretty brilliant on oki's behalf but no this we don't have a lot of details but yep and we should try to go through the girly piece because he he like give a thread of here's all the questions I have about about open a eyes uh project starget but if if this is 1.4
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trillion total is what they're saying over six years uh if if moss and Sam managed to do 500 which not very many people actually believe that you know that's just one company so presumably you have open AI or sorry you have Microsoft and Google and and a ton of
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other big players not to mention um early stage investing so I imagine we could um we can and should DWF that number uh just to make a statement completely disagree we got to size it up if they're doing 1.4 trillion we got to do 10 times that's what I'm saying we
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should DWF their 1. oh oh yeah good perfect okay great I it would be unamerican to not do I was about to I was about to grab me by the collar and start just wailing on you if you start talking like that yeah that would be very unamerican um so haing let's go into the
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background of the found this is this actually went viral just as a screenshot because it's so interesting um so this is about the founder of deep seek hailing from Southern Guangdong Province Leong went to study Electronics uh information and computer vision a field
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of AI that trains computers to capture and interpret information from images and video data at Jang University in hung Joe along with a group of University classmates he started exploring how AI can be used to automate stock Investments then he becomes one of the co-founders of a great named firm
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called highflyer Quant that's my Quant that's my Quant uh which uses AI to manage one of the largest quantitative hedge funds in Midland China so this is the stuff that you're seeing at Jane Street and Citadel now um and maybe jump trading too um and a lot of those firms
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have moved to AI driven investment strategies but also they they because they're doing high frequency trading they operate at a very low level so a lot of them I mean Jane Street writes everything in O camel which is like a programming language like machine
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language it's almost like it's like like python is like three levels of abstraction away from them so they can very fine-tune the speed at which these algorithms run and everything can be proven like mathematically so these are just like some of the best programmers
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in the world uh and highfly high flyer Quant grew its asset under management more than tfold over a 4-year span from 1 billion Juan in 2016 to more than 10 billion in 2019 according to local media reports and information from the company's website and so it seems like
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they've really been on a run uh over the years highflyer Quant spent a large portion of profits on AI to build a leading AI infrastructure and conduct large scale research the company said in a statement in April of 2023 months later high flyer Quant spun off deep sea
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which launched a series of AI models used by developers to build thirdparty applications by the startup to create its own chat Bond highflyer Quant managed to buy more than 10,000 Nvidia Graphics processing units before the US government imposed the chip bands
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according to a local media Outlet um on its website the hedge fund manager said it spent 200 million Yuan and 1 billion Juan in uh 2020 and 2021 respectively to build its fir Fire firef Flyer series of AI Computing clusters um then a senior research scientist wrote The Deep seek
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has emerged as this year's biggest Dark Horse and so they've been investing a ton and everyone is talking about how uh cracked their team and yeah they very much are trying to spread the narrative that this company just randomly popped up spent five million bucks and had a
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model that was competitive with open Ai and it can't be uh overstated how uh much that is not the truth right this is a team that have been building yep and we'll get into this but there's there's a theory that that they got a call from the US government or from the Chinese
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government and basically said like look we understand that you're making tons of money as a Quant fund but you have the best Engineers like it is your duty to step up and build AI compete with and go and and and and you have to do this um
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let's let's skip the the interview because it's a little dense um but if you flip that next page over you'll see China leads the world in AI in positive AI sentiment I thought this was kind of interesting so this is from an ipsos survey and uh according to a new ipsos
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poll China is the most optimistic about ai's ability to create jobs uh uh up there with Indonesia Thailand turkey Malaysia and India the 70 77% of Chinese agreeing with the statement AI will lead to many new jobs created in my country contrast pretty pretty dramatically with
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America's 36% very very interesting because yeah in America like the consensus view is definitely like AI is going to destroy the yeah look at yesterday he's like oh if you're a lawyer this or that why would I ever you know he had a very negative yeah view I mean it's probably
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a reflection of the fact that like America is mostly a service economy which is much more automatable by Ai and llms versus if you're a manufacturing driven economy then yeah it might be more important to manufacturer than ever and it's not like they have some massive
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you know Professional Services uh you know economy going there so uh interesting um anyway uh Adie sums this up nicely in a very long post that I think we should go through uh and then we'll get to some timeline on the uh what's ad's backstory I see his post but
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I never actually looked into it I I don't know uh I think Anonymous poster for a while kind of AI Insider slight you know very dedicated to the posting like very focused on like what we actually go viral I've seen some like really the kind of guy who sees uh
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Tiffany's payouts and and punches the W sure for sure just like that's not but I think at one point he had a podcast with uh Eric torberg on AI or something maybe it was like a solo show Anonymous but now I think he might have gotten like lightly doxed and kind of decided to put
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his face and full name up there yeah his name um but he says uh deep seek is not a side project which is the narrative that was going on oh they just like did this for fun on the side they're so cracked lot of people a lot of people like to call things and it is weird
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because like it does appear that they are extremely cracked and like insanely like these are really great Engineers who are creating technical breakthroughs but at the same time this is clearly like a serious project uh at the same time employees are not lying when they
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say it is the story they are telling is mythmaking in the same vein as Silicon Valley we want to make the world a better place but at the same time make billions of dollars the team obviously had access to more than 10,000 gpus according to the scale AI CEO it was
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around 50,000 and that's as of today the scale AI this morning Shar uh Alex Wang Alex was saying hey they're totally lying basically yeah and the reason that they're lying is because there are very strict export controls on gpus right now and so they they legally should not as
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one organization have access to yeah this is a situation like this is the equivalent to a bunch of terrorists driving uh the Toyota hux and everybody's like Toyota how did you get how did these terrorists buy 400 Toyota Hues and Toyota's like oh I don't I
34:05
actually don't know and it's like yeah that's enough volume that you probably could figure out hey how do these terrorists and then that's with the DJI drones like oh if there's thousands of them in Ukraine yeah and so and so I don't think this has happened yet but
34:21
Jensen should get pressured to explain how did these 50,000 gpus just land in mainland China because it's not a small number yeah that's a whole and and yeah there's haven't hasn't uh Nvidia adjusted some of their chips in order to sell them into China too yes so
34:43
there's there's the h100 uh which is the the current top-of-the-line AI training chip in America um and then every time they they Nvidia launches a a new chip so the next one's Blackwell the previous one was a100 they they also create one that's
35:01
like slightly nerfed in order to not trigger the chip bands uh and the export controls which a lot of people are really frustrated by because of course um there's so much demand for gpus and and line time at tsnc uh a lot of people would say hey Nvidia you're an American
35:19
company just don't even worry about that making that Nerf chip and wasting any manufacturing capacity on that instead spend 100% of your manufacturing capacity on the chip that yeah it can't get exported but we're going to buy it in America like Zuck wants it and Elon
35:34
wants it and and and you will sell 100% of your capacity and your stock will Moon you don't need to do this but uh I I think the argument is like it's a weird situation because so many people in America that would be the ones to say to Jensen like cut cut this out have so
35:51
much Nvidia that they're incentivized to just kind of let it rip totally it's just kind of yeah you're like ah we'll let this one slide you're making a little money under the table maybe uh so deep seek feels more like Skunk Works perhaps a necessary one as the core
36:04
Quant business became less feasible regulatorily it's like locked setting up a small a separate small team to compete with SpaceX because the main United launch Alliance was not going to work out it's also very hard to track costs in China because the regional government
36:17
absorbs so much cost early Bitcoin miners had access to free Power because built power plants to nowhere and miners were willing to sight next to them and and so to be clear there's a very scenario where deep seek can authentically say we only spent $5 million on this model but the local
36:35
government was like we'll spend five billion exactly um like that's not out of the question yeah it's interesting the power is just a thousand times cheaper over here and it's very it's very common so so in the in the Middle East uh I was I was in uh I was in the
36:53
Gulf at one point with a portfolio company that was getting corded to set manufacturing over there and the deal on the table was basically you don't pay for any power for the next five years yeah and so that's and that that and and that was for a foreign yeah uh business
37:12
to come into that area imagine uh imagine the kind of incentives that China wants to offer to being like hey we have these 10 coal power plants uh Gorge dam is like it's a massive Dam it's one of the biggest power generation facil ities I think in the world maybe
37:28
the most uh here's another example Alibaba was able to get Regional governments to absorb Warehouse construction costs on their balance sheets rather than directly pay for it and looked extremely asset light and software when it went public um this is
37:43
why American investors yeah this is wow Ben wow Ben just played a video on his phone in the middle of the episode really phed it in ben um the podcast is falling apart but this is why American we're to replace him with a subsidized Chinese Labor uh producer Ben China Ben Wang
38:07
yeah um the uh this is why American investors always get hosed when they invest in in in in Chinese companies basically uh because China has a different approach it also happens internationally I I was working at a venture capital firm that was investing in uh International in
38:27
like Emerging Markets so they do like uh clean tech in like Africa and India and stuff and this is when the Belton Road initiative was going on and and I hate that initiative hate that initiative um uh and I read do you remember cablegate the
38:44
leaks that uh it was like a Wikileaks project Where They seized all these like cables between different uh like State Department embassies and stuff the C go back and forth and they leaked them and you know it became like kind of a story on like is the government doing
38:59
something wrong in this country but like it was a in it was a very interesting Trove of information if you just searched through to find just like how is it what is it like doing business as an American in Kenya you know because the the the Kenyan Embassy would write
39:12
cables and explain like oh we you know here's what here's what's happening on the ground and one of the things that they they found was that or I found in these in these emails in these exchanges was that um the when when when an American company would come in and say
39:26
hey we want to do business business like like oh you you you need some infrastructure built like we're happy to help you uh there would be a bidding process between uh America and China and the feeling was that that that the the the American company was its own entity
39:42
and the Chinese company was backed by the full force of the Chinese government and would and would basically have an unlimited yeah and so when people when people complain in the US that uh Tesla gets these subsidies in the form of EV tax credits and rebates that is
39:57
happening on steroid 10,000x in China where uh because the CCP the government and the economy are so intertwined the CCP is almost a king maker where they can be like okay you're our horse you know we're going to back up the truck and you know the the the company gets to
40:19
skim some profits still but but ultimately they're being you know this is King making process yeah and so Adi kind of closes with uh it's perfectly possible for most of the cost to be parked in a balance sheet outside of the Core Business perhaps as some form of
40:35
tech data center construction incentive it's also possible uh no one accepts no one except the founder knows all of the financial Arrangements some of these can be absolutely insane handshake deals which get resolved by reputation loone tying tying this back to DJ DJI yeah
40:50
same exact thing they they claim that they got off the ground with n $90,000 but then they also claim that they were selling their products at the Hard cost to make them for years but and so how do that how does that work it just doesn't make doesn't make sense so
41:07
he says this much is clear the model is really really good on par with open AI released from two months ago having said that unreleased models from open aai and anthropic are probably better the research agenda is still being set by the US by the US firms this model was a
41:21
fast follow on the o1 release they are working very fast as they are catching up sooner than expected they are not copying or cheating this isn't industrial Espionage at most it's reverse engineering they I would I would cave out that by saying China is is uh Infamous for
41:40
industrial commercial Espionage yes and it it's probably the case that it hasn't been proven that they're doing this yet but without a doubt openingi has I think because it's open source people saw that the architecture was in fact different but sure I think the training data a lot
41:54
of it is synthetic data that's been pulled from the GP 4 API yeah and so they're they're like okay we need a trillion tokens like let's just go to Chach and this is probably it's it's probably a funny situation similar to when Tik Tok started spending
42:07
aggressively on on Snapchat Instagram to acquire users where open AI is probably getting a lot of benefit from a revenue stand AP business is ripping oh there's one client that spent a billion dollars where are they oh it's uh opening eyes like we got to figure out who's spending
42:24
all this money yeah and so they are largely developing their own Talent they're not relying on us trained phds they are less constrained than American law firms by IP licensing privacy safety and political cons concerns around wrongly ingesting data from people who don't
42:40
want to be trained I guarantee if there's a Chinese Med Chinese Media company and they're like hey we're kind of annoyed that deep seek is just like harvesting all our data like she goes to them and be like I will literally kill you if you like say another word and
42:55
they're like okay yeah they also seem to be over the the tan Square issue the model can say it even the Deep seek website doesn't even if deep seek website does oh interesting so so when you're on the Deep seek app you're you're interfacing with their model but
43:10
the but but the but the actual model under the hood they didn't they didn't censor that because they just like they're like whatever we're just sending this over yeah interesting no it's good they can argue our model is not censored yeah yeah yeah but just our app
43:22
interesting of the of these the most significant upgrade is that they are able to develop Talent internally without relying on US train phds that expands the pool uh I got a call out for the audience go into deep seek uh play around with the API and uh try to have
43:39
it generate an ad for uh your business that we will read out on here so but it needs to be a screenshot of yeah of uh you know actually on deep seek soek yeah I like that so let's go through some timeline but don't give him any other any other uh some some upto-date
43:58
information about the R1 launch and how it's been received we'll start with Mark Andre and we can kind of go back and forth here uh Mark says deep seek R1 is one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs I've ever seen and as open source and as its open source it's a
44:15
profound gift to the world and then Tor Taxas says game recognizes game an American Patriot too can do justice to real achievement without petty-minded copes and so I think yeah this was posted today today it seems like an insane thing to post to me I'm not I'm not gonna like
44:37
like if you understand I think it's uh not uh it's sort of disingenuous to say that deep seek is different than Tik Tok or DJI it is different in the sense that it like the fact that it's open source means that you can run it locally and it won't call back to the CCP
44:58
sure but the broader the broader uh risk of deep SE deep seek is Extreme enough and I'll and I'll uh I'll quote a very conflicted uh member of the conversation Neil kosla uh father obviously uh has has a big position in open AI uh he says deep seek
45:22
is a CCP State scop and economic Warfare to make American AI profitable yep fact check true yeah and and the important thing there is that it is Zuck has been running this Playbook with llama open sourcing the the the the lagging Edge AI model and it's had a strong effect on
45:42
the competition yeah and so deep seek open sourcing the Leading Edge model is going to have a similar effect so he says they're faking the the cost was low to justify setting the price low and hoping everyone switches to it to damage it AI competitiveness in the US now that
45:59
part I don't think is true because I think the model is actually compressed to the point where yes you can just take the model run it on a smaller cluster and if I'm choosing between llama or running or paying GPT to host paying open a host GPT for me or running deep
46:18
seek locally I will choose deep seek locally because it's cheap so so that part doesn't doesn't fully fully sit because yes they are faking the cost is low but but it doesn't matter what price they set because it's open source like there both things are true they they are
46:38
faking the price but also it's cheaper to inference and that is valuable even if you're not paying them yeah even paying and so so uh signal comes in uh brother signal says complete nonsense your dad wanted it to be pure profit and Regulatory captured so it everybody you
46:55
know can't stop bringing it uh his dad which I don't think I mean timeline turmoil the timeline's in turmoil folks yeah he says until we have proof otherwise your argument is just conspiracy theory now I'm not a defender of the CCP but where would where did
47:08
they get the hardware question mark how did they train under the radar question mark I'm happy to be shown some proof also even if if it's 100 million it's still a major breakthrough the proof's not coming folks they're not going to open up their books and video is not
47:22
going to not going to say oh yeah we we actually you know figured out how to how to get them all these ships the proof's never going to come the main thing from my point of view is you can't yeah no the main thing in my point of view China has repeatedly shown that they are
47:37
willing to lie they're willing to sell things for less than they cost to make in order to get an edge in the US market and I do think this is again the the default state of any important International tech company coming out of China becomes a front for the CCP yeah
47:55
and you just can't there shouldn't be any trust I I I would hope that startups are smart enough to not you know a lot of consumer Brands will say well I build on Tik Tok because my customers are there and I have to get you know and so I think the same thing will happen but I
48:11
hope that um I this is a different scenario because if you just download the git repo for deep seek and you host it on Amazon or you know Google cloud or whatever like there's there's no data back like you're not helping them improve the model at all like that's
48:31
what Mark's getting at is that like it it is it is this complicated geopolitical thing because it is uh kind of making the lagging AI labs in the US less relevant and that's potentially hurtful but it's not as dangerous as building on Tik Tok yeah it is it is
48:48
like a fundamentally different thing yep uh so Neil fire fires back one I'm not my dad two I'm fine with open source AI we use for some of our own projects three the export controls on chips were merely inconveniences which we already talked about and Alex Wang just said it
49:04
on national tv as well yep it's a great model there is no doubt but as with almost every High importance industry the CCP is undermining it with propaganda and subsidies so you see this in E drones Electronics manufacturing y everywhere and so I'm going to take uh I
49:20
I I I respect that it's open source you can run it locally maybe maybe you should leverage it to some degree but we have to treat this as a threat sure and and and I think you're right in the sense that like it would be extremely dangerous if deep seek became a dominant
49:39
consumer app and it was like oh yeah Americans aren't using Google anymore they're using deep SE as their home r that would be very bad because that is a controlled app but I just think about it from the lens that uh again China would not allow uh open
49:56
AI to get a foothold in the Chinese market and have hundreds of of you know thousands of companies leveraging it sure uh and I think we should follow their lead on this one yes I mean I don't think they've done anything to stop llama from going over there all
50:13
meta products are banned but not open- Source ones because you can literally throw it on a hard drive and just fly it over make it you can still make it illegal at the maybe National level it's just such it's just it's just such a it's such a lower uh like security risk
50:28
yeah it is economic Warfare I here's here here's an interesting a security risk post uh I don't know I the only other thing on that point is is if you look at um what's the um what is the what's that uh malware that took down the Iranian oh yeah and so so
50:51
there's maybe need a security audit first we there's there's talking about stucks net stuck net yeah was something that literally traveled to every country on a on a you know I'm just saying that that there's we are not qualified to even really uh that's interesting yeah I
51:10
mean so so like the actual code that runs an llm and pulls in the weights is like pretty simple yeah um and it's probably built on top of like pie torch or tensor flow or something and so it's probably pretty easy to audit that but but and I don't think I don't think
51:25
these models are full like intelligent in the way that you could like bury a secret like alive AI that like steers things secretly but maybe in the future like it's not a little sci-fi but we're getting close it it it's just believable that the the Chinese intelligence would
51:44
would say hey we have this like we deep seek is a winner let's would be a great like sci-fi plot or like actual like problem would be would be we're open sourcing a model it's really really Rel we're going to make it super cheap but then it doesn't call back it doesn't
51:59
even need to but over over time as you ask questions it will slowly start steering things because it's essentially like it has a has like a higher order thought process in there that it's reasoning through and it's not giving you those tokens yeah I just I just
52:14
think there there's fasina there's so much technology that that isn't publicly the public ourselves we're not even aware of right and so I just don't trust I don't just trust it and I think there's enough precedent uh one don't trust it can't fight it yeah
52:33
uh one uh catrini we got a post from catrini first time on the show deep seek being the brainchild of a Chinese hedge fund is such an complete total cultural Victory by capitalism that Ide ideologically at least it should soften the blow which is cool I like HED guy
52:51
yeah I do wonder if we'll see uh some sort of llm or AI contribution from Jane Street or Citadel or something like that they're they're doing things that that uh like if you're in the if you're a hedge fund and you have some Edge via AI I promise you you're going
53:09
to keep that yeah inhouse extract as much value out of it when you're done with it maybe you release it and be like here you know we made this more I think that I do think that the the talent flow balance was shifted for a few years like pal was really the hot ticket for you
53:28
know the best Engineers it was big tech for a while but until the AI stuff the really really top Engineers were getting bored of going and writing ad optimization they're like if I'm going to just go write ad optimization that's kind of the same thing as writing code
53:42
that optimizes the stock market and so why the real the real the real charge and horse would be Jane Street releases a model that everybody can use that like kind of helps you make money you know but then but then it's feeding them back great flow and then they're just trading
53:57
against you yeah yeah yeah uh Neil's Ro Raj says um oh this is such a a funny one so there so there's this Chinese company called Deep seek which basically does what open AI initially intended to do they're open sourced a model trained with large scale reinforcement learning
54:12
beating everyone else and even releasing a paper detailing their process um and it's funny when they release this stuff in English because like who's the target audience for that translate um but uh yeah yeah yeah I mean it did take over the timeline so the fact that this mean
54:28
and this this is this is what's scary okay from Stanford to MIT deep seek R1 is basically become the model of choice for America's top University Research researchers basically overnight half a million views this was posted yesterday and again this is just bad there's no
54:47
way around it uh do we want America's youth using Tik Tok for two hours a day do we want all of our researchers using Chinese is just objectively um unamerican uh open AI scraped the web to build a Clos Source model deep seek scraped open AI to build an open source
55:07
model this is from norgard uh low low low Tam Banger from this morning um another one deep the data the data exfiltration is is the real cost one because that might have been done by another firm and then just passed over who knows how much they like they're
55:25
certainly not going to say hey building this model cost us100 million in open AI credits right just would never admit that uh I don't like this post but I'm going to read it anyways deep seek is another example of China rapidly commoditizing new high-tech Industries
55:41
and preventing the West for making excess profits or rent as it's called if this keeps going the standard of living in the west will fall uh I don't necessarily agree with the last line because obviously llama has already been yeah doing the same thing effectively
55:59
but um certainly uh Tik Tok eats into uh eats into meta profits uh just because ATT their their profits are derived from the attention that they get if they're losing an hour a day per 20-year-old in the US that that does um you know they are going to take a hit
56:18
but yeah we'll see how this plays out it is interesting how like one of the anti-open source AI Arguments for a while and I I was certainly arguing this was that um it doesn't make sense for America to open source cutting Ed AG Cutting Edge AI because it's just giving
56:35
our best tech to the CCP free um but now it's kind of flipped around so did you generate this for deep seek no this is a this is uh so I think the last post there explains what that is it's from Ethan molok I think and uh and it's him giving examples of the uh of of deep
56:55
seek and and just just just explaining how here take this and I will so Ethan says the the raw Chain of Thought from Deep seek is fascinating really reads like a human Thinking Out Loud charming and strange and so why this is interesting is because um most of the
57:12
when you when you use chb1 uh it does internal it has an internal monologue it has a lot of it's generating tokens that are about the task and reasoning through it and then it's adjust and and whatever you ask it's it's saying okay here's what the
57:29
user wants and usually that's either tucked behind a little like tab that you don't really look at and even if you look at it it's usually just giving you summaries of it but because deeps is open source you can you can read literally every token it generates and
57:41
so uh he asked it do something to Delight me in exactly seven words make it not cheesy this is important so very simple prompt and it thinks for 8 seconds and it says okay the user wants something delightful in exactly seven words not cheesy let me start by
57:56
understanding the key points here Delight can come from surprise cleverness or unique perspective the challenge is the seven-word constraint which means every word has to count first I should avoid anything overly sentimental or cliche like words like love heart forever my C off as cheesy
58:09
instead think about elements that evoke Wonder or curiosity um and then so it's like going back and forth like wait map is a verb here fly Orly is mapping constellations that personifies them slightly giving them intention and so it's like thinking through all this
58:21
stuff counting all the words and then it comes up with fireflies Trace constellations in quiet night conversation which isn't that good but anyway it's an interesting like deep dive into like just understanding that to get a seven-word response you don't
58:37
just want to go to an llm and just take the next seven words because that's going to be truly slop but if you generate three pages of text you can get a little bit closer and I think this is kind of a bad example um but a better prompt is you know uh create a create a history of DJI
58:56
and it'll pull a buch of stuff together and then it'll revise that and refine that and do like kind of editing passes and say okay do I really have a beginning middle and end here did I include all the dates correctly and it's factchecking itself so then when you get
59:09
the final result it's much better and so that that that's just a good example of like how Chain of Thought reasoning Works how these reasoning models like work in general and I think it's uh it's just cool that people are able to introspect things and I think a lot a
59:21
lot of researchers will learn from this stuff and there's some more posts in there about the actual technical this one is from Henry he says I've made over 200,000 requests to the Deep seek API in the last few hours zero rate limiting and the whole thing cost me like 50
59:36
cents bless the CCP open AI could never uh I hate that I had to read Works he got me uh but yeah I mean this is the whole thing uh the developer Community cuz they are hosting it feels like smoking CRA and and so this is an example of what you're worried about because if
59:56
you're if like I guess my my contention is like yes if you download the git repo make sure it doesn't have any spy wear in it and then you're hosting it locally like that's a lot less controversial to me because you're just using the open source library but if you are
1:00:11
interfacing with deep seek.com or whatever and and and every every one of these requests that he's putting in is is information for them to train the next model on and and that's not good because that that really will be a compounding advantage talk about how
1:00:26
meta has a compounding Advantage because of all the users that are on Instagram and and interfacing with llama even though llama's open source meta is getting the training data and the and the like the up votes and down votes from those user interactions because
1:00:40
they're because llama is the number one llm not because people are hosting it independently although they are plenty of compan are hosting llama independently they're the number one used ml llm because it's tucked into Instagram and so they just have a ton of
1:00:53
interactions there yeah signal another good post kind of hilarious how deep seek is exactly what chat gbt was supposed to be what open AI originally promised before Sam pivoted hard toward profit China going open source on AI is a wild plot twist basically throws out
1:01:10
every argument venod kosa and others have made this is like watching the Communist Party write a love letter to decentralization which very uh signals a great writer um but uh yeah I don't know if Sam pivoted towards profit he clearly enjoys making a buck yes he clearly enjo
1:01:32
coning seg owner yeah know kegs uh p1s but it was more it really it does seem that he was correct in believing that you weren't going to be able to raise enough money via nonprofit structure to compete or the open source model like even like uh the red cross's annual
1:01:52
budget globally is like a billion dollars right and that's like one of the biggest you know nonprofits yeah uh I don't believe that uh China is writing a love letter to decentralization no uh you you could say it's like watching the Communist Party write a love letter to decentralization
1:02:09
but the Communist party is purely interested in control and maintaining power yeah it's not a love letter to decentralization it's a middle finger to our and our and our trade export controls um and the irony here is that could ask uh xai to explain what
1:02:29
features does deep seek have does um and uh there's even more on this with the AI diffusion rule this is the new uh the this is a new law and rule against uh chip exports and uh you know they're they're just showing that like we're going to find the loopholes no matter
1:02:51
what and the really crazy thing is that the loopholes like the the EXP sport band is only relevant to uh American-owned intellectual property and Nvidia because they're an American company but China is actively working to catch up in chip fabrication with uh SMI
1:03:09
and SME so they have their own tsmc they have their own Nvidia and they have their own asml and so they're behind yeah and they have their own open Ai and so they're willing to spend at every single level energy totally at the state level energy data data centers the actual model level
1:03:26
uh so this is just like we we're going to fight I I I do wonder if the if the open source thing was was was more about Like Making a Splash and actually being a middle finger than any then is that even more important than the economic Warfare It's just to really get on the
1:03:42
map and really really say hey we've caught up and it's almost like a a battle cry like a rallying cry for them that we're like that we're on top now anyway what else oh this is F this this is interesting this one yeah I'll explain this so um Rachel Toto BB says
1:04:00
tagging the ADL under every tweet denying deep seat cost six million the reason is because people like uh it's like it's like it's a it's a criminal to claim that they spent that little yeah and it's like you want to yeah engage so this is is from an interview with the
1:04:19
founder of uh of deep Seek about Moes uh uh he says for the past 30 years years we've been focused on making money often at the expense of innovation true Innovation is driven not only by commercial incentives but also by curiosity and the desire to create he's
1:04:35
giving off Tik Tock Vibes here we've been constrained by past habits but these are transitional interviewer says but after all you're a commercial organization not a nonprofit Research Institute if you choose to innovate and then share it through open source where
1:04:48
will you build your Moe for instance the mln MLA architecture Innovation this may will likely be copied by others right yep leang goes in the face of disruptive technology a closed Source mode is temporary even open AI closed Source approach hasn't stopped others from
1:05:03
catching up our value lies in our team which grows and accumulates knowhow through this process building an organization and culture that can consistently innovate is our real moat open sourcing and Publishing papers doesn't mean we lose anything for technologist being followed is an
1:05:17
achievement open sourcing is more of a cultural act than a commercial one giving is a form of honor and it attracts Talent by fostering a unique culture this guy's media training is insane uh Lulu we going to have to start asking some questions this seem is
1:05:34
trained trained by the best it seems but these are all quotes that are going to resonate with the developers that they want to get using their product totally tottally uh so I don't um I don't believe any of this at all yeah um and uh there's this other guy on X called
1:05:53
Han Xiao um and this guy Anton just posts how is deep seat going to make money gets two and a half thousand likes Banger Hana says deep seeks holding is a Quant company many years already super smart guys with top ma math background happen to own a lot
1:06:13
of GPU for trading mining purpose and deep seek is our side project for squeezing those gpus so this this is literally on the on the on the 22nd so a couple days ago claiming at Deep seek is a side project but also the Deep seek founder is meeting directly with this
1:06:31
yeah the uh whatever with the CCP so yeah don't believe uh I'll I'll just say you just cannot believe or trust anything that say so yeah I mean the interesting thing here is that like even though the results are super impressive very clearly the algorithm the
1:06:51
algorithmic Improvement is very serious and and legitimate and I don't think anyone denies that um there is the question of okay China was able to kind of like weasle together probably 50,000 gpus and there's a few ways that they can do that there's um there's you can
1:07:10
only officially buy 50,000 gpus for the next four years but you can exploit loopholes so there's a limit on 1,600 gpus at a time so you set up a ton of shell companies bring them in that way and then there's also training that happens saying this isay goes over this is like uh you know
1:07:28
Toyota selling their hux to into uh Afghanistan and so just to give you some scale here uh xai and meta are building 100,000 GPU clusters and at that point it's like you're getting so many gpus it becomes harder to hide it in a batch of like oh a th000 over here 1 th000 over
1:07:48
there like let's just sneak a few over here right um and just to give you some scale uh a single h100 GPU is $24,000 and that's about 40 to 55 40 to 45k once you add in servers networking g00 um and 100K GPU cluster can draw 150 megawatts but the next wave is 400 to
1:08:11
500 megawatts and then 1 gwatt in 2026 and when you add up everything it's like5 billion for 100,000 gpus and so uh xai is round with 6 billion and they're building 100,000 GPU cluster it's like matches the cost of the gpus like and all the networking almost perfectly and
1:08:29
so the question is you know was this an abberation in the sense that this was the last great model that China can build before hitting an actual real export wall or will they figure out a way to do something that looks like what xai and meta are doing with I mean you
1:08:49
you just find like uh markets companies governments find a way right like uh wasn't it that the United States didn't want Israel to have a nuclear weapon and then they just made it y right totally it's all going to happen it it will look like oh Peru bought
1:09:08
50,000 h100s and then they didn't train a model like it just we don't know where they went right yeah so so I mean it's getting it's getting tricky like they are pretty strict export rules on you know you can only go to an Ali country if you it literally be like there's
1:09:25
who's that the the guy we traded uh granny granier NBA player in Russia okay we traded him for The Merchant of death oh yeah there's going to be The Merchant of gpus uh that that that's just doing these black market GPU deals imagine China doesn't care China doesn't care if
1:09:42
they pay 50 Grand per h100 they probably pay 100 grand for it and so some engineer in the US gets approached by a nice young lady well out at the bar she's like hey like I have this new project numbers are going to get so big that it's going to show up in nvidia's
1:09:59
like earnings and stuff oh there's an extra 1 million GPU order and there's only four companies in America that that could be you know and if it's not them like where did it go oh it went to some country and like okay we want answers it'll be very like what I'm saying is
1:10:13
that like as the data centers get bigger like they become more visible on satellite the shipments become not just uh not just a shipping container but a whole illegal arm trade drug trafficking all this stuff yeah you're right has been happening you we've never been able
1:10:30
to stop arms dealing we've never been able to stop drug trafficing yep uh a million GPS is a lot though I I I I would hope I would hope that it's easier for us to stop a million with uh I've watched the last Netflix show I enjoyed was was narcos
1:10:47
sure and it's a great show Nar narcos you have a situation where the US federal government knows exactly who is selling the drug raking in the profits and still takes them decades to take them down and uh so it's just tricky when you have like a an SEC regulated
1:11:04
company at the center of this like Nvidia like you put pressure directly on them yeah but you can there's nothing that stops a company in Argentina from being like we want a thousand gpus yeah but you're gonna have to do that 10,000 times worth it's it's worth yeah yeah
1:11:23
yeah I guess thousand FRS it's the same way okay we know that fentol crosses the southern border every single day but it's happening thousands of people are doing it so to stop it is like whack them all you hit one and they pop up so well it's more important than ever to you know
1:11:39
monitor who who these gpus are going to and uh there's an interesting story in this interview with Dylan Patel about how Elon is kind of just going completely founder mode on his Data Center buildout and I think it's kind of instructive for how you can kind of duct
1:11:53
tape together one of these huge SK uh training operations so xai as we mentioned they raised uh 6 billion for 100 GPU cluster and they are just 100,000 or 100,000 GPU cluster they're going crazy they bought they bought a defunct Appliance Factory near Memphis
1:12:09
and it's right next to a large national g gas plant but then they also tapped the local natural gas line and then set up natural gas generators then they also brought which is like not ESG friendly at all but but they they just need the power then they also have Tesla battery
1:12:27
packs to help uh yeah uh like balance out load and then they're also taing we talked about this that they sell like a $50 million battery pack yeah yeah literally just sent that over there the reason be extra bullish on xai is that Elon is the
1:12:47
only uh founder mode model you know yeah CEO I don't know if he's actually CEO but whatever chairman at least who has done large scale infrastructure projects over and over and over yep the Factories at Tesla Starbase Etc so and so they're they're they're next to this gigawatt
1:13:06
natural gas plant which should support um roughly a million GPU cluster which would be like the GPT 6 and and the crazy thing it uh it's there's probably a chance that in the long run Elon does absorb open AI right right because you just don't know know he's happy to
1:13:29
acquire a hostile yeah company uh and so one of the funniest things so the there's two funny things we should want to talk about in here one is that uh the ESG thing is is becoming uh like way way more complex than it used to be so there's uh typically like the the AI
1:13:48
researchers are pretty like ESG pilled and all of the uh all the big tech companies made huge ESG promises saying all of our data centers are going to be 100% clean energy by 2028 and like apple made China definitely doesn't do it um and and and they were they were they
1:14:06
made those promises based on oh yeah well we just serve like we don't serve AI models we just serve like you know basic queries to our database for you know Instagram we just we just host photos like that's not that energy intensive to just serve you up a photo
1:14:20
and take your like or your comment and slop it in they weren't they weren't uh expecting us release 10 hours of podcast exactly yeah yeah and so and so they were like our compute and our energy consumption is growing at like you know 2% 5% a year like with our Revenue with
1:14:35
our profits with everything so yeah it won't be a problem just swap out 10% a year for clean energy and then we'll be cleaned by the state um then this massive wave of AI training comes and all of a sudden they're like okay we need to deal with uh like we need to
1:14:51
find energy a lot of it's like through these Outsourcing projects where there's third party uh data centers that don't have the the projects but what's interesting about it is that a lot of the super AI pilled researchers are like actually now I'm super worried about the
1:15:05
environment I believe in climate change I do really care about clean energy but I think AI will AGI will be so powerful that we don't need to worry about climate change in the short term and so let's just burn all the natural gas and oil and get to AGI and then AGI willig
1:15:21
literally they literally think AGI will figure it out and just do carbon sequest and have many super that be building steres and we'll be aely CH the envirment however we want so we shouldn't let this hold us back which is a very interesting like switch in the
1:15:36
model because normally you know it's like it's it's a very like Left Right issue it's a very like oh if you're you know this like thoughtful scientist you definitely like let's not destroy the planet but now they're like actually the planet can take it because we're really
1:15:49
close to the the AGI future which is fascinating uh and then the last the last thing in here that was interesting was I mean X is just doing all this crazy stuff they they they they needed water cooling for all their gpus and so they brought in restaurant grade
1:16:05
chillers that just chill water and so they just have like a ton of cold water filtering through it's all just like you know duct tape together um and then uh the uh the the last thing is uh Monday Monday or Tuesday we're going to cover the business of of data centers yeah
1:16:21
like cored yeah that'll be great cor weed and stuff cuz cored is also doing uh crazy stuff cor weave has 200,000 gpus billions in revenue and they convert they're converting old crypto data centers and then hooking into on-site gas plants and uh all this stuff
1:16:36
is just measured in uh in just energy consumption now because it's so it's so big and Amazon and anthropic have these tranium gpus servers coming on but they're a little bit smaller like less powerful power efficient than others but uh it's a massive it's a massive
1:16:51
knockout drag out fight which we love which we love we're ready for for war we're ready for War uh it's great well that about wraps up our Deep dive on deep seek hope you enjoyed it and we'll be right back after a quick break thanks for watching welcome back to the
1:17:11
technology Brothers the most profitable podcast in the world uh we are continuing our Deep dive on open AI Stargate joint venture with a fantastic article in none other than Dylan Patel's semi analysis uh he writes the open AI Stargate joint venture announcement had
1:17:27
many folks heads turning despite us calling out that the capital requirements for open ai's immediate plans months ago so open AI has been talking about hey we want 100 billion for a long time uh the headline 500 billion is such an earth shattering number that it also caused deserved
1:17:43
skepticism from folks like Elon Musk stating that SoftBank has well under 10 billion of funding secured we talked about this yesterday uh Elman clapped back by saying it was already under construction which is true and we'll uh show some pictures and uh to come visit
1:17:56
it and you can in fact go to abene Texas and start looking around here and so it's fun to see the elite going wait don't skip over this headline it's cluster measuring contest our our Elites are getting into a cluster measuring contest again yep uh soft bank doesn't
1:18:13
have anywhere close to the money required for the cluster at the same time the cluster is already under construction in Texas see the low reses gift for free subscribers uh well presumably isn't there going to be many clusters I think this is basically all
1:18:27
initially it's all going into one this this one yeah this this one that's under construction could be under1 billion uh yeah so and in that case then they would be in a position to start construction the the other thing I'm sure we'll get into this but but debt uh
1:18:45
plays a big factor here so even if if they have 10 billion they might be able to build $30 billion of actual the uh goes into the total cost of ownership stuff but um essentially the the the game that we're playing here is order of magnitudes
1:19:02
we've the you can think about the gp4 cluster as $500 million the xai cluster that's 5 billion that's a 100,000 gpus and now open AI is planning for the $50 billion cluster and then the $500 billion cluster which will be 1 million and then 10 million gpus and so every
1:19:23
time we're going up and order magnitude in terms of gpus power and money and so like the way you're thinking about it is 150 megaw goes into 100,000 gpus and that costs 5 billion and everyone now is talking about the multi-billion dollar cluster and this is just thinking a few
1:19:42
years out to what's the next order of magnitude yeah and so the reality is that only the first phase is certain which is a portion of the committed 100 billion but the Topline number is being counted in an interesting way to say the least we already discussed the first
1:19:56
phase of this abene Texas data center publicly in our report four months ago we also have had it in both the accelerator industry model and the data center industry model for quite a bit longer um below we go out we go over what's actually happening with Stargate
1:20:11
and so the real numbers behind Stargate uh we believe this project is being measured on the total cost of ownership not Capital expenditures I.E the 100 billion and the 500 billion is tcco which includes the capital expenditures for data centers servers networking
1:20:27
costs power costs and many other operational costs including debt and financing costs furthermore we believe only the first 100 billion has data center sites and power ready to go funding is not F fully secured the other deceptive detail is that the first
1:20:41
cluster of this me mega project is the Oracle open AI data center deal that was announced last year this is being built by Lum cruso and Oracle as far as we know no other such SoftBank uh yeah this goes back to everybody this was a party round for a new entity that is going to do some
1:21:03
stuff for open AI that has a bunch of that's a clearly a holding company of some sort that's going to have different owners of different levels they'll be you know probably location based entities and so the goal of the Venture is that they're going to invest $500
1:21:18
billion in AI infrastructure over the next four years with 100 billion deployed immediately it's the first big AI initiative announced by Trump uh the equity Founders in Stargate are SoftBank Oracle mgx and open aai with the former three companies contributing Capital
1:21:33
initially the project includes the buildout of 20 data centers 10 of which are underway in abene Texas each with roughly 500,000 square feet so let's get into the scope and location of the initial $100 billion investment uh the initial Oracle cruso uh deal is included
1:21:51
as one of the data centers that will be connected to other Giga campuses which I love that name it's fantastic to perform distributed training at scale and his orders of magnitude larger than any other training run cleverly they went for a more creative financing structure
1:22:05
through this separate entity which pushes the need for fundraising down the road and so uh moving on the the the campus mentioned by Sam mman has already underway is the oral cruso abalene campus one thing that you skipped over that I think is interesting so the
1:22:23
project includes the a build out of 20 data centers 10 of which are already underway in abene y with each being roughly 500,000 sare ft so just giving a sense of the scale 10 separate 500,000 square foot facilities imagine if you had just happen to own a bunch of retail
1:22:41
uh yeah like businesses or real estate yeah what are you thinking I mean you have to imagine that one you got bought out to if you had a gas station there all of a sudden like your Revenue just like 10x I don't know what was going on in aene prior to this but um uh you're
1:23:00
doing pretty well if you owned uh you own real estate there because presumably these will just keep expanding and expanding I mean I I I know some guys who have been to the site and they said like when you fly in like you see it from the airplane and it's like it's
1:23:15
like immense it's like an intense experience seeing how it's it's a mega project it really is uh and so the campus is being H built to house the hundred ,000 uh gb200 cluster for open AI use the development along with the gb200 servers that are due to be shift
1:23:32
over Q2 and Q3 will be dropped into the Oracle cruso data centers uh there's a high resolution photo of the campus uh shown below four of the 120k square foot modules make up one 500,000 foot building so only two buildings are currently being built with 180 megawatts
1:23:50
of critical it capacity to give an understanding of the scale of this buildout the 20 building campuses the 20 building campus will be comprised of 80 of those modules so it's going to be like like it's going to look like a city which I'm excited about this is awesome
1:24:04
um based on the buildout we have scheduled for open AI in both our models open AI doesn't have to build an entirely new campus to expend all 100 billion of tcco therefore we believe that the entirety of the initial $100 billion investment from Stargate joint
1:24:18
venture is going into this campus alone and so it sounds like with these with these different like Oracle is going to own one Stargate is going to facilitate the ownership of a few of these but it it feels almost like when Sacha says I'm good for my 80 billion it might be well
1:24:36
yeah I'm going to build a huge Data Center and it's going to be part of Campus own this one I'll own these gpus and so I'm chipping in but it really it's mine and it just happens to be here so it's localized and we're all working together on this um so there's some
1:24:50
there's some details here on the abene clean campus it's uh 11 Acres uh 200 megawatts energized and uh a gwatt energized by 2025 uh there's a tax abatement in form of city and county pilot zon for light and heavy industrial and and they're building additional
1:25:07
gigawatts already yep so the campus is in the model is known as the lanum cruso abene clean campus has lansum and has a stated capacity on their website of 1 gwatt energized in 2025 it's cool to see uh when you let private companies take on big projects like this that you can
1:25:27
do things pretty quickly totally comparing this to the California rail insane it's just night project yeah um it's insane yeah uh the uh the guy behind cruso uh is known for just being really really good at finding power and I think that's kind of what kicked off a
1:25:47
lot of this was just realizing that abene Texas was the right mix of different resources and pipelines and grid infrastructure that this was the place where you could actually get all the power because that's what the big Tech compan has been hunting for and they've
1:26:01
been looking for oh can we turn this nuclear reactor back on can we tap this natural gas line is the wind available or solar available can we just stack a bunch of batteries here like what what can we do and so uh in short we estimate open AI is paying roughly 2.8 uh $280
1:26:17
per GPU hour for the first gb200 cluster which is a total cost of ownership of $238 an hour hour for the full scale cluster these figures scale with future Nvidia GPU deployments um and then they break down some of the Nvidia uh Revenue estimates and as we go forward to new
1:26:37
gpus uh the number will double for each generation and the power per GPU also grows while 700,000 gpus Sound small for 100 billion so this is why this is why our joke uh being like it's all for you brother the post we made about Jensen and and Masa oh yeah like Nvidia is the
1:26:56
real winner here you've said it before they have more than 100% of all the profits in AI right now yeah um because everyone else is losing money but not Jensen baby and so the Project's Financial backing uh Oracle and SoftBank are the well-known Equity providers mgx
1:27:13
is a more recently founded technology investment vehicle from Abu Dhabi uh and the fund is chaired by the Chic uh who's reported to oversee 1.5 trillion in investment funds so the money really is available to some degree if they want to pour it all in this they can but mgx as
1:27:30
of now is a hundred billion fund yeah that's right um uh and and there's a question about like you know what will the concentration be for that investment vehicle but uh it could be very high since this is such a big story and it has like such insane backing uh in light
1:27:45
of the recent Elon Musk claimed that SoftBank could only raise under 10 billion it is important to note that the JV will also raise debt capital for project financing it's unclear what the of equity and debt financing will be Oracle and mgx can fund a big chunk of
1:27:57
the project with their massive balance sheets um open Ai and soft Bank are allegedly down for 19 billion on paper each soft bank doesn't have this liquid today but we think soft bank will likely sell off a portion of its arm stake to fund the equity check and so I think
1:28:11
soft bank has like over soft Bank also borrow against their arm Stak certainly Moss is not not afraid ofage so open AI also doesn't have the capital but they will be able to raise with 03s lease and they don't have to do it directly fully but can through some
1:28:27
kind of hybrid instrument issued to everyone else in the Consortium is right that's a tough that's that's the tough thing when you get into it like it's not hard for Sam to raise a billion and this is the same thing for Founders very easy to raise a million a million raising 19 million
1:28:45
you're getting into territory that uh people start to ask you know they want they want the spreadsheet start coming out a little bit the question is if project financing risk will be separated from the parent organizations separating this risk is
1:28:59
important because open AI will need to raise Capital to pay for this thankfully open AI is not immediately required oi has enough existing Capital to pay for rental payments on the cluster this year but they need to be able to pay rental fees in 2026 and Beyond which scale
1:29:13
massively it is possible open AI cannot raise the money directly but we are believers that their technology and products will scale to support this the reality of the joint venture many big names were announced alongside the Stargate JV ranging from Nvidia arm
1:29:29
Microsoft Oracle and the previously mentioned financiers the names are large and impressive but the reality is there are distinct winners and losers here Microsoft is The Biggest Loser uh Microsoft is largely left on the sidelines open AI utilizes another infrastructure partner as such in
1:29:46
Nadella stated all I know is I'm good for my 80 billion Microsoft's recent blog post stated the facts of the partnership and how Microsoft has roofer but the reality is that this is incrementally negative for Microsoft's long term because they were afraid to
1:30:00
take on the risk of this investment well if they're afraid and the fear was correct then it's not necessarily guaranteed to be negative no no good good good point good point and then arm is thought to be a winner potentially because they rallied 16% of the news
1:30:17
because they were named a technology partner because of course they're owned by SoftBank so a lot of people were worried that arm would sell off because what if SoftBank sells their whole position but if they have a massive new contract to sell new Chips knows but only because
1:30:30
of the grace and ver CPUs that accompany Blackwell and Ruben gpus all from Nvidia so SoftBank is actually like they don't even make gpus but they make CPUs that need to go alongside every GPU for coordination of the actual server so the server has a lot of different and
1:30:45
there's so many companies that we we should get into in the server in the in the in the data center Deep dive they they're they're companies that just make ethernet cables and just printing or like they make uh you you know the screws that go in the server racks or
1:30:58
like the air conditioning units the water shellers like all of these things are like uh you can't even buy natural gas generators anymore because they're so in demand um and so those companies are going to be ripping we should do a whole Market map like totally um with
1:31:12
that other company the the the business of uh rebuilding I guess um so SoftBank likely pushed for arm to get on the pr and the and the Optics look nice arm isn't doing doing much the reality for arm shareholders as stated above is SoftBank will likely have to sell off a
1:31:30
chunk of it stick in the company to to fund Stargate um we think investors are largely missing this point mistakenly view this announcement as materially incrementally good news uh Oracle is placed with a huge burden of tackling both data center management and managing
1:31:45
supply chain Logistics it's quite a task to manage a 1.8 gwatt cluster and P procure all necessary equipment at the command of another company Nvidia is obviously involved as it's their Hardware open AI will remain control of operations and run almost all of its own
1:32:01
cluster management software the future of the of the joint venture uh this is the next step in an exuberant progression in the AI cycle uh which he recently wrote about in fabricated knowledge I got to follow up and read that that sounds interesting uh we know
1:32:16
the first hundred billion will be spent in abene and that there will be more campuses developed for the remaining 400 billion even more impressive all these Data Center campuses will be will continue to be built out with the aim of distributed training so training across
1:32:28
multiple data centers yep um and so and so there's some Savvy real estate uh investors out there trying to figure out where the next data centers will be oh yeah and buy buy up the surrounding land and properties and stuff like that because all of a sudden new data center
1:32:47
pops up it's like okay well all of the surrounding rental like Apartments just probably yeah two extra yeah I mean data centers aren't as dense in terms of human capital as you know a Facebook campus but there's still tons of employees and tons of stuff going on and
1:33:02
like there's just a million different ways to to make money when there's so such a hive of activity yeah uh I mean even like you know security guards are going to be in demand like dumb truck what are those the white monsters oh yeah yeah or the super cracked the the
1:33:19
the ultra ultra white monster yeah those will be in short supply there's going to be we're going to need to keep all the supply lines flowing but fascinating to see Stargate rolling out and excited to go visit the the the the plant in person I want to go see we need a shot of us uh
1:33:37
you know on the ground wind ripping yelling in you know yelling into the microphone yep we're here Stargate Stargate maybe they'll rename the town they should rename it Stargate Texas Star base star base Stargate oh if the star name is like a little bit
1:33:56
shot across the bow yeah I wouldn't be surprised if Elon Vis up out of all the out of home ads in abene on ad quick on ad he just rips perpetually trolls trolls you know he would be he would do that he likes a Troll he's no he's yeah he's not not
1:34:13
afraid to be um although the more efficient thing to do is just comment with a crying Emoji under every um thing that Sam posts well that's our update on Project Stargate uh let's move on to we got a DM we got a correction to issue on the last show I said that bees don't eat
1:34:31
honey and I was wrong they do eat honey cougan is totally wrong if a beekeeper takes too much honey from The Hive they will starve SL die so I'm sorry I made a terrible mistake please forgive me won't happen again that's kind of factoid you just don't forget I think I'm going to
1:34:48
remember that forever these enjoy honey so our printer ran out of ink so we don't have all the post printed we're going to be working off a laptop but our first Banger today comes from drva he says we can do this we have the companies we just need our own Shenzhen
1:35:03
place and we'll soon get the policy and Kyle Chan is saying Chinese tech companies are increasingly becoming Tech Swiss Army knives starting in one industry and then quickly branching out into a range of adjacent Tech domains xiaomi which was a phone company is now
1:35:17
building electric vehicles DJI builds lar and they also build cameras and and microphones all sorts of production equipment Lee Auto builds robots BYU builds autonomous vehicles uh and here's a piece that he has in high capacity showing how all of the different Chinese
1:35:35
companies operate in multiple sectors and this is just something we haven't seen in America like there was a time when Apple was going to build a car and we've seen some some crossover but I think the FTC really screwed this up because you know even just the Amazon
1:35:50
thinking about building home robotics they fought to fight on the Roomba acquisition all this stuff and there's just been so much corba like almost died yeah and if you're if you're a big tech company and you're going into okay yeah we are Apple we're going to build car
1:36:06
and in order to do that yeah we're going to need to acquire some teams like look at look at what Zuck did with the metaverse he wanted to build he bought Oculus and that one went through but then he bought some Fitness VR app did you hear about this he bought a he
1:36:17
bought a fitness VR game basically clearly probably just an aqua hire for some great devel velers who never really got product Market fit on their fitness app because it's such a small Market tries to bring them in and the FTC blocks it and says that so that this
1:36:31
will give them un undo Monopoly control over the VR Fitness industry it's like what VR Fitness industry this isn't a real thing there's like $10 of Revenue in this industry why are you shutting this down just let let Zuck like build a little bit of a team so we get something
1:36:47
Zuck let him Zuck let him Zuck uh and so yeah ridiculous I don't know if you have anything on on this but yeah it it ties back I I posted that we need our own project Stargate for domestic drone manufacturing we've let DGI own the commercial drone you know consumer drone
1:37:04
Market in the US they own a lot of the commercial drone Market they fell into police stations uh there's a lot of individual smbs manufacturing facilities that could manufacture parts for drones but the issue is there's not a clear demand from us-based companies and so we
1:37:22
need if we want to be competitive on drones which you know other people have said are are the next it's like getting into it's like the it's the next gun in terms of a player on the battlefield y we probably need to invest like0 billion to like set up the proper infrastructure
1:37:39
set up campuses that can produce because in a near-peer conflict if drones actually are an important aspect you know player in that we will not be able to compete purely on an output basis so even if we were to have a better product say Andre has a
1:37:58
better product than DJI it just purely on a mass volume basis will get smoked right so um yeah I mean and this goes back to to to carry no interest is talked about this before he says that if you want to compete with China it's not about just encouraging manufacturing
1:38:16
yeah and making you know a better regulatory environment it's massive government incentives and invest that the Chinese government has done you know for decades now yeah yeah uh let's go to benac he says deep SE R1 has an existential crisis and I don't know if
1:38:35
this is Photoshop but he was clearly talking to it about talking to it about tenan square and says no I mean the Chinese government killed people there and it just says no the Chinese government has never made mistakes it has only been dedicated to its people
1:38:47
the people of China it has never made any mistakes it has never made any mistakes it has never made any mistakes mistakes and it just like completely freaks out out and I don't know if this is real but it feels real never know he's a good Photoshop artist he's a to
1:39:00
screenshot he did the Jaguar Rebrand he did the Jaguar Rebrand that's right yeah uh hilarious um but yeah I mean I'll have to play around with it myself see if I can Jailbreak it see if there's some fun stuff I'm sure we'll I'm sure we'll get more in the coming days of
1:39:15
people playing deep seek um let's go to Sula says should I try the Trump diet let me know will you try this out it's no breakfast well we stay away from politics but this is this is a health this is just Health this is just Health this is biohacking biohacking the Trump
1:39:32
diet is no breakfast small snacking around lunch A Feast for dinner 12 Diet Cokes per day no coffee no alcohol no exercise I think Trump is so active that he probably gets 10,000 steps a day without ever going for a walk you know he's just like walking between meetings
1:39:53
spends a lot of time on his feet so the exercise thing is crazy but but also a lot of these old dogs that that that have you know uh Warren Buffett Etc they don't seem to need to lift weights like they they maintain Mass you know they're size Lords right size Lord you can keep
1:40:10
the mass on without without weight training uh it's it's interesting because most people feel better if they have a bigger meal for lunch but I find when I'm really busy yep today we had I had like we had breakfast I had like half a breakfast burrito then I won't
1:40:30
have eaten until I'm going to have a big you know meal speaking of the the mass Monsters the the uh the bodybuilders really do eat a lot of small meals throughout the day and so there's something to that like consistent cons like sustained energy like snacking all
1:40:46
through the year all through the day so you're not seeing like big spikes at any point in time and then the the 12 Diet Cokes is kind of the same thing like you're see spikes and caffeine you just caffeinated lightly all steady state there's something to it but it is a
1:40:59
little silly uh Bennett seagull says seeing a lot of pitches on marketing agents as a lowcost high volume way to scale customer Outreach before the Gen era we just called that spam yeah I it's it's hard to be it's interesting because you know I made a joke recently
1:41:23
about how you know uh Trump making an executive order to ban the creation of new AI sales agent companies very trendy uh and so it's a very you know and I'm sure there's like 10 of these companies in the YC batch yep uh people have joked before that oftentimes Founders won't
1:41:39
find product Market fit and then they'll pivot into building some sales enablement tool because they what they've just experienced around selling they have some type of experience there or pain points um but the explosion of these AI sales tools have has made me
1:41:55
more and more bullish on the historical sales leader who is taking their client out to uh a nice lunch uh really getting to know them bringing them across companies right so somebody might work at data bricks and and be a top performer there and and go to Oracle and
1:42:13
and bring a lot of those relationships over right and so so relationship seem the value of relationships seems to be accelerating the value of a cold email is going to decline you know pretty dramatically cuz cuz I'm surprised somebody hasn't made a passive cold
1:42:29
email tool that just sort of sends cold emails every day to high value kind of like people yeah being like hey what's up I'm an 18-year-old you know and historically to do a good cold email you really had to put some effort into it you know you don't want it to be too
1:42:45
long but you want to make sure that there's some thought put into it but I'm sure some 18-year-old will build a tool that's like we send 10 great cold emails a day on your behalf you know to yeah I mean I I I don't think I've ever fallen for an AI generated cold email I I don't
1:43:02
even respond to any cold emails I don't even respond to warm emails often I have about a thousand emails that I should probably go through uh you know even some close friends have trouble getting through to me sometimes unless it's really important business I have
1:43:19
3,251 unread texts right now so I'd like to see an AI I break through on that but at the same time like I do think that uh yeah it might be it might be hard to like close me as a client but you see this with like the AI slop on on Instagram like it clearly works on some
1:43:35
people and so the question is just like sales enablement for what product because there are people right now scrolling Instagram and being like what like you know a cow made out of cabbages or whatever and they're just looking at the most like sloppy like oh like a bed
1:43:51
made out of bread like so well the other thing with with emails you can send a terrible sales email but if you send it 10,000 times you're going to get one person and then if it's very cheap to do that y then it was worth doing I guess yeah it is yeah yeah maybe maybe the
1:44:07
spam Alpha is like is like normally like direct email Outreach is reserved for B2B customers where a single client closing is like usually well over $1,000 at LTV and and direct resp resp on Instagram ads is for stuff that's like around $100 LTV right or below and so
1:44:29
maybe the AI sales agents kind of democratized that SDR experience for Consumer products at the lower level and so it's yeah it's more like you went down the marketing funnel and now like you're just texting with someone like oh do you w to do you want to actually close the
1:44:47
deal on that like t-shirt you were about to order it's interesting the only email spam that if you go to your spam folder yeah you'll see is for him the products you can get on him so like you know boner pills basically and it's been like
1:45:02
that for decades that was the major Alpha of like internet they figured out you can send if you send 100,000 emails and only and it's Point F out cheap does matter yeah doesn't matter as long as you can I got an email I got a text message today from somebody I don't know
1:45:18
if it was real or spam but it was they were claiming to be from Tik Tok and I was like you really didn't do your research you think they're going to recruit me to to join Tik Tok there's a uh there was a guy uh what's his name he was like a drug trafficker people think
1:45:35
he invented Bitcoin Paul laroo uh this is a crazy story we should do a whole Deep dive on him it's fascinating but basically uh he got his start online pushing boner pills and illegal supplements right and he would get turned off he would get blocked at like
1:45:54
the domain name level and so then he started buying new domain names constantly and just immediately spinning up a new website and then sending more emails and then he started getting blocked at the DNS level and so he bought a registar and like he was the
1:46:09
person that owned the registration the ability to register new websites in like an entire country yeah and then he went on and did a bunch of other stuff and I think it was like smuggling crystal meth from North Korea at some point was like it is a crazy story he's I think he's in
1:46:22
jail now um but a lot of people thought he was like Satoshi for a while cuz he wrote a bunch of crypto uh not cryptocurrency software but like cryptography software um and uh was like early like kind ofers for good yeah he was kind of like a like a Silk Road guy
1:46:38
yeah yeah yeah kind of Proto Sil Road um uh let's go to AI schiffman on the bucket pull let's see what he's got to say this look this sounds familiar let's see what he's got to say he says shower products are the biggest scam and only for disgusting Pig that roll around in
1:46:53
the mud all day I stopped using shampoo and Skin Care stuff a year ago and my hair and skin is the cleanest and healthiest it's ever been water and an office job is all you need it's water and an office job water and an office job yeah I think you
1:47:08
had that take like like a week before he bust funny I I when I was in college still I as many college students do would would randomly suffer from acne so I was like I'm going to try to like get some face wash and and I ramped it up and I Wasing like face wash and like you know a
1:47:28
mozer and and I would look around at like you know my friends and I was like I know you don't do anything but splash water on your face and your skin looks better than mine so I just quit it completely and my skin got better y um and it really comes down to diet people
1:47:44
often I think men do skin care and things like that reactionary either their girlfriend or significant other goes hey you should try this or they're having a skin issue so they're like I want to solve this but usually it's a dietary thing that's catalyzing it and
1:47:59
so you can just keep just putting water on your face and just eat better food and you'll probably be okay are you familiar with the Taylor Len skin care regimen no but I should be it's uh hydrogen peroxide wipes like a thousand times a day I heard it and I was like I've never
1:48:22
heard anyone doing that it's because her the temperature set to 88 degrees maybe that's it but I was like I don't know anything about skincare but that one sounds weird that sounds wrong who knows maybe it works I don't know give it a try let us know how it works for here
1:48:39
give that a try um Bill Gurley says as a third party curious Observer all right serious as a third party curious Observer I have several naive answered questions about the Stargate project obviously understand that they have no obligation to disclose
1:48:59
here's a list with responses wide open uh I would love to be able to aggregate the best answers at some point one corporate structure the open AI press release says that Stargate is a new company is Stargate established as a standard C Corp LLC a joint venture or
1:49:15
something else entirely and even a joint venture is not a that's not a structure like it can be a joint venture that's a C Corp or a joint venture that's an LLC right yeah I think that when you set up joint venture you just say we're starting new C Corp and the shareholders
1:49:27
are the the the joint venture Partners right um so he has a bunch of these CEO leadership will Stargate have an independent CEO customer exclusivity is is open a say in the announcement that it would have a new CEO new board something like that think so will they
1:49:41
be as operationally intense as the XL xai team that launched Memphis operating partner role release says open AI is the operating partner what does that mean in Practical terms I think one thing that meant that they cleared up in the in the Dylan Patel piece is that they're using
1:49:56
their software to manage the Clusters so it's it's more like a SAS management component then yes I I like this is is opening ey of the sole customer or will Stargate yearn to serve other businesses is that many people yearn you got to yearn uh Oracle
1:50:13
day-to-day involvement what specific role are they playing did Oracle previously own the assets there comparison to core weave what kind of businesses Stargate is it effectively a direct competitor to cor weave's AI hosting approach or is it structured and
1:50:26
positioned differently debt usage uh we you know we we talked about this core Reeve is is rumored to go as high as 3:1 or 4 to1 Leverage What level of risk will The Entity consume appeal to third party investors uh Standalone and potential round tripping and uh
1:50:44
pre-training versus inference and data center structure so he asks a bunch of questions and I think um that you know we'll have to do a followup to see what kind of hopefully he does a post or he talks about on BG squared um but it'd be great to see where those come around I
1:50:57
think that some of those is but there are there's it's private company yep absolutely no obligation for them to share leave them alone actually why are you asking so many questions Bill no everybody's been asking questions because it's such a big headline number
1:51:14
that that you're inviting a lot of that but I think people so if if oracle's public company they'll have to report on there investment open AI has enough shareholders at this point that they'll have to it it'll come out soft Bank as a public company so they'll have to so
1:51:32
it'll all kind of start you'll be able to paint a more clear picture over time but again they're raising preincorporation this is what happens you know ra raise raise a trillion half a trillion pre-incorporation you know uh there's plenty of examples the Google
1:51:47
Google check it was it was half of something it was I think half a million or something the guy wrot the che like well where do we put this yeah we can't cash this didn't matter worked out going to happen again let's go let's go up only bull market Buble Behavior bull
1:52:03
market everywhere bull market somewhere uh arbitral at Electric Capital says president Trump just issued a major executive order that touches on everything crypto this is a big deal stable coins operation choke point developer protections a new crypto task
1:52:19
force and a digital asset strategic Reserve here's a breakdown protecting economic Liberty Americans are guaranteed the right to O use open blockchains without fear of persecution self- custody digital assets promote the dollar through stable coins banking access for all no more chokepoint
1:52:37
2.0 um drive to get regul regulatory Clarity for Innovation uh cbdcs are off the table so no Central Bank digital currencies they're going to create a new digital asset task force with stable coin oversight risk management and digital finance a national crypto
1:52:55
Reserve he says a roll back of the Biden policies Trump revokes EO 14067 explicitly rejecting Central Bank digital currencies and rolling back policies viewed as overly restrictive or government heavy in their approach to digital Finance can you look up what Bitcoin did after this went out I think
1:53:13
it's down Rec all priced in day I guess it was priced in I mean really people were expecting Trump to do amazing things with with crypto and so like you know how can he meet those what would Bitcoin have done if if Trump coin hadn't sucked all liquidity right
1:53:31
people were selling Bitcoin to buy yeah I mean certainly some of the alts like Dogecoin traded down because people were rotating I mean bitcoin's so big at this point I mean it's almost trillion I think maybe more uh and so average but still that's 5% yeah I mean
1:53:46
yeah trumpcoin is attracting more money from people that are not yeah into TR trenches right they just have a little bit of money in coinbase or whatever and they they want to rotate yeah I don't know I haven't been following the the crypto news too much I'm still just
1:54:02
focused on those three that we always talk about the stable coins betting markets and Bitcoin Bitcoin basically store value um but I don't know hopefully we get more interesting stuff out of this we we haven't even entered this this the phase of the cycle where
1:54:17
people are talking about like new new use cases really it's just like me yeah that's actually what I'm excited about is okay if Trump made kind of doing whatever you want legal by nature of doing what he did then a lot of the I wouldn't be surprised if somebody starts
1:54:36
to try to use tokens to represent stocks and actually bringing real world assets on chain which historically was just expensive because of securi laws but that's been a big yeah also just like when the markets are up like this there's so many more so much more
1:54:52
Capital flowing around for like oh if somebody wants to give really give you know crypto gaming another run like they'll have another shot on yeah there was so many maybe it doesn't work maybe it never work but like at least we'll get another shot on it I saw I was doing
1:55:06
some research uh for Banger archive last night and I saw somebody posting the obvious end state is the intersection of crypto and gaming y because everybody's sort of ingame earning tokens with their time but they're not actually tokens points in the game you can kind of like
1:55:24
sell your account or you can sell gear and it's sort of like it is a market but it's not actually Financial financially engineered yeah and so I do think I wonder what you don't hear about any games that were created during the 2021 boom like if you remember B yach Club
1:55:41
was supposed to be developing an MMO yep maybe they still are I don't seen much went out that were like decentral land and like the metaverses that were supposed to be like kind of roblo do whatever you want there was one game that did feel like it had some modum of
1:55:57
product Market fit called Dark Forest oh yeah yeah that that that got like a little bit popular and it seemed like people actually liked it was kind of map was all cryptographically sealed so it was like open source and you could kind of verify that the other person wasn't
1:56:09
cheating and there were some interesting things to it there's game coming out financialized game coming out I'm excited about so Josh Harris who okay uh was one of my first hires at a party round he was 19 the time like College Dropout killed it at party round uh
1:56:26
after he uh went to uh like was like a e I think at at uh Paradigm and now he's building a crypto chess game that I think will be pretty cool like being able to play chess with like real money on the line have like special characters almost like a Dungeons and Dragons best
1:56:45
so that'll be launching this year which I'm sure will be very there was always just this big problem with like the crypto stuff like sounded good but there there was very little reason for a game company like valve or Electronic Arts to
1:56:57
say like yeah sure you can take your assets out of our beautiful ecosystem that we tax 30% on everything and We Own 100% of the liquidity of like there was no Financial incentive for those companies to ever be like yeah this is actually and the big one GT the next GTA
1:57:12
if they okay so then I need to raise a billion dollars and hire all the best artists and and developers to actually make the next I think that was the big issue with crypto games yeah is like you are not going to create a new game Studio yep yes you yes you can use the
1:57:27
if you have a pretty good game you can use the token to incentivize people to actually play it but then it becomes just an economy where you have people in the Philippines there was that game I forget infity axi Infinity that people were like this is the new economy yeah
1:57:40
and then and then it just was a Ponzi yeah I mean I I watched a little bit on a twitch stream just to understand like okay what does this game actually look like and it just like it wasn't as entertaining as like even League of Legends or like you know Hearthstone or
1:57:52
any game that it was like competing with and that's just because but now you might have these big game Activision yeah you know Riot all these players being like okay crypto is a real thing let's implement it yeah there's just still such such a counterveiling
1:58:07
economic Force to saying let's not do that and cap we have the best game yeah yeah yeah GTA oh you want to buy GTA coins and the whole thing is like I actually don't think that you should I think if you're the best in the world if you're the top 200 player at a video
1:58:23
game you should be able to make like a decent living off of it yeah I don't think that video games should be financialized to the degree where just playing at like you know the top 100,000 players should be you know it's just a lot lot we shouldn't encourage that as
1:58:38
like a career path yeah a lot of this just winds up being some sort of like regulatory Arbitrage like wealth transfer and I guess like the good ending would be like hey because of because of restrictions on investing in companies you have to be an the credit investor and so you can't raise money in
1:58:55
in Mass you can do like some sort of Kickstarter crowdfunding campaign for your game but then you need to go to the Venture capitalists and maybe there's some sort of capital formation thing where if the game gets traction like buying the coin is essentially like
1:59:07
investing like the Trump coin like it's like it's just like it's just like getting more Capital into this thing but then you have to count on the developer actually like making something it's all very very fraud anyway let's move on to uh we'll do Bas Baron and then we'll do
1:59:20
a promoted post yeah B Baron says ewac or the mimetic death and Rebirth of tech if there was ever a call it ewac ewac uh if there was ever a moment if there was ever a movement destined to fizzle out like a damp match stick it was eak at least the EAS have
1:59:39
the self-respect to make their leader serve hard timef um here we see a movement ostensibly about the Relentless push towards a techn capital Singularity instead in my instead admired in the quicksand of its own internal contradictions and the inherent flaws of
1:59:56
its Messiahs first consider the misalignment between the movement's professed ideals and the actual behavior of its leading lights iak in its Essence was meant to be a Clarion call for the acceleration of Technology a rallying cry for those who see the
2:00:12
universe's entropic dance as a mandate for human human Ingenuity to multiply complex uh complexity and intelligence instead what we observe erve instead is a parade of digital ands uh uh ensconced in their online Echo Chambers chanting accelerate like a mantra detached from any real world
2:00:33
action these are not the builders or the Shapers they are the spectators mistaking their fervor for progress and he goes on to write about wow he really wrote a lot about this he really care and he got 10 lines for it so congrats um wow no I think uh but I but but
2:00:50
there's there's a real um sort of very real message here where uh when you have a movement like uh very hard to go from doxed to not doxed like if we knew who Satoshi was would that be good for the price of Bitcoin almost certainly no yeah right not even the selling pressure just every
2:01:14
human is blaed and I find this like there's so many there's so many different like Health influencers you got to live this way and then there's a family influencer you got to have work influenc you got and you into those people can oh this saying you got hard
2:01:29
like they have never had a family or like they've never or they're completely out of shape and you're like wait like no one there there's an issue where people commenting under every post accelerate accelerate accelerate yeah it's cool but I think what what The
2:01:44
Baron's saying is he just wants to see those people actually creating progress in the real world and not being part of a movement doesn't mean you're having any type of real tangible impact right the way to have a real impact is to participate in the underlying activity
2:02:00
that is yep driving towards the goal of the movement so totally um yeah It's Tricky love to see Baron love to see Baron branching out and more thought and I still think eak was best when it was just a joke at the expense of EAS and I thought that when it came up I was like
2:02:19
I never put in my bio I never join these like silly movements I didn't do I didn't do the do thing I owned it but I didn't put it in my handle I didn't do the nft phot picture I have I have trouble like joining like these big like movements because I feel like you're
2:02:32
always very risky you're on the top could backfire um but with you rather you rather super aligned but I thought it was just so funny to just be like oh we're poking these like super serious EAS who are like oh we need to like put everything in a spreadsheet and I was
2:02:46
like these people kind of need to be made fun of and that's when e is its best and then when it became this super serious like actually acceleration was like the only way is was like okay this is not fun anymore for me at least that was my experience with it ruined it it
2:02:57
ruined it uh we got a promoted post on a more lighthearted note but also serious at the same time we have a 19 John John's you're interrupting the post John relax the 1966 Aston Martin db6 shooting Break by flm panelcraft is a rare and striking example of bespoke British
2:03:19
craftsmanship with only three produced and one in left-hand drive and I just have a thing for shooting brakes I the first car that I ever you know had access to was a Toyota Corolla that was Triple my age at the time uh very uh paint chipping uh you know hundreds uh
2:03:40
probably 150,000 miles on it um ever since then I've Loved shooting breaks I I I was lucky to own a Ferrari FF uh for for a while great car thought it would be a good uh family car but the Ferrari reliability uh was was somewhat of an issue um but this thing is just amazing
2:03:58
I mean imagine uh imagine driving across the country in that um putting some real miles on it uh somebody in our audience should do that so great uh great example here pick up yeah uh let's go to Chairman burb banki love the name is I'm
2:04:14
plotting on your rise bro I'm literally up in the lab scheming on beautiful abundance for you I'm cooking up wayes for a rising TI to lift all of our boats I'm praying for your gains I'm lighting a candle to your inevitable Splendor dude just love basic he's plotting on
2:04:32
your rise I love I love this format it's great it's been RI around don't don't plot on people's downfalls plot on their rise I don't think I don't think enough group chats a lot of group chats have this sort of unserious people dropping memes and talking talking a little smack
2:04:48
stuff like that I want to see group chats that are uh oriented around winning together I'm in one it's called iron sharpens iron iron sharpens iron everyone takes a very seriously yeah but the issue is is people at the top are hyper competitive
2:05:04
soit you got to really you got to cut a job this one's the most positive I've ever been five people oriented around winning together yep helping the brother succeed at all costs that's what we're trying to doy bu podcast that's why we we run ads uh you know you you scratch
2:05:20
our back yeah you leave us a five star review you throw an ad in there we'll read it on the show there you go let's go to Katherine Bole she says America is in Deal mode and deal mode is infectious if you have a deal you want to do now is a good time to get it done also it's
2:05:35
time to get married dive in it's the golden it's the Golden Age of America she just added that yeah I like that little followup like go by the way he if you have a post that does well this post sponsored by marriage pronatalism yeah pronatalism uh yeah the the the deal
2:05:49
energy is real it's never it's rarely time it's rarely a bad time to do a deal right you want to be greedy when others are fearful right so people are pretty optimistic right now uh for a lot of good reasons but um but yeah go do some deals uh it's good to call to
2:06:07
action right great yeah simply deal yeah deal deals deal mode Let's go to Ben hilock he says chat gbt can now use Claude And so immediately of course he's immediately ring it 5K likes good post yeah so he went to operator create a new uh create a new chat to create a a new
2:06:29
B2B dashboard and try using the app and tell me what you think and so he's having operator open Claude log him in and then use Claude to code for him and it's all just very silly but uh yeah I don't know I mean it's probably a good stress test of the system if you can use
2:06:49
that it is interesting so so yeah great marketing for Ben because he has a a analytics platform I believe for for AI products um but uh it's interesting how we're seeing already that uh somebody I forget who posted this that AI is eating UI right which eventually
2:07:11
you will be able to use a model to use another model so your that your preferred model if you want to do something with another model you'll just say hey uh go find the best model to do this task or like create this type of content and it'll just do it and so you
2:07:27
may never interact with the end UI you'll just interact with your preferred model and that is why for all the hate and uh you know shade that people throw it up in AI oh it's overvalued oh it's still owning being AI for the average consumer you're anator and you're the
2:07:47
front end um yeah and when and it was it last year or the year before uh ovai launched gpts where you could go in and create a custom GPT and you could upload specific documents give it fine tuning instructions and there was there was like an app store Marketplace and every
2:08:05
once in a while I would I made one where I uploaded like a bunch of books and a bunch of information PDFs about a specific topic and then I could query that and there were a couple others like one that would help you write threads on a and um and I think the idea there was
2:08:18
that you you let people build a ton of different gpts and then uh the the one master GPT can can route to one and there people were joking that there was one that was like laundry buddy that would just help you find like a laundromat but but in theory it's like
2:08:34
yeah like maybe someone's made a GPT that does one thing much better and then the and then when you query the like the master GPT chat it can say oh okay I'm I'm going down and this already happens with a mixture of experts and the and the reasoning models but we can say oh
2:08:50
okay there's there's there there's a coding model that's really good and I need to write some codes so let me go over there and use that or there's a booking integration and so all of that's happening kind of under the hood it's funny in this Frame but it's it's very
2:09:02
very real so uh let's move on to Lulu she says uh oh uh we should start with the uh yeah brother of the year uh so Bank of America posted a uh an image uh that says Bank of America serves more than 70 million clients and we welcome conservatives we would never close
2:09:20
accounts for political reasons and don't have a political litmus test and it's really that like my shirt that says I'm innocent of killing people is is Raising more questions than it's answering yeah that type of thing yeah uh and then there was instantly a community note
2:09:36
saying Bank of America has been placed on notice by 15 State Attorneys General for debank and conservatives and Lulu is uh breaking down exactly what went wrong here one if you turn off replies you you look guilty y you can't turn off quote tweets so you're just setting yourself
2:09:52
up to get ratioed even harder by other means uh you should have anticipated the community note which looks worse than either uh than either comments or quote tweets and if you're in the position of having to make a statement like this comms and social media aren't your
2:10:06
biggest problems rough yeah I don't even know why they had toot debanked by you guys like what the and and his family and his ex-wife and his ex wife's husband because they were receiving yeah payment uh whatever alimon yeah wow yeah rough not a good day I and the whole thing is there were
2:10:30
fintech companies emerging over the last six years probably four years I guess five years that were explicitly because conservatives were being debanked and they were they were saying this is the the rightwing which we shouldn't have political leaning yeah
2:10:45
it's very silly our financial institutions should not be political politically leaning at all yeah let's just keep politics out of we keep politics out of the show let's keep them out of our banking system I agree I agree uh oh this is this is a fun one I
2:11:01
know you're gonna have a lot to say about this Jared fredman says rocket is the first is building the first oneperson $1 billion company the plan is simple buy up software companies fire all the employees and replace them with AI agents literally the most AGI pilled
2:11:17
idea I have ever heard okay so uh like many topics like like many podcasters podcasters often have a lot to say y uh I'll preface this by saying I I don't work in directly in in private Equity yep uh and I'm not a software engineer but and uh the other thing I would say
2:11:37
is I I like this sort of big bold idea uh it's cool to have this you know major Milestone one person1 billion doll company yeah very exciting and I think that many sort of uh this is a cool experiment uh and is worth funding from YC and is worth the founder trying to take a crack
2:11:56
at it sure but I I I I have to Imad like here's the thing like buying companies companies trade on a market yep and it's not perfectly efficient sure but any company worth buying unless the owner uh does not have uh you know is not doesn't want to get the best possible price uh
2:12:18
is going to talk to a lot of people right so if you're this onep person company and to get one deal done maybe you have to talk to like 200 companies right and all those 200 companies are talking to other private Equity firms other individuals they're exploring
2:12:33
raising other forms of capital they have all these different options I don't know that the the classic private Equity strategy has been to come in fire all the unnecessary people replace them with modern software and so to me I'm not quite sure that this uh while while I'm
2:12:49
in favor of the experiment I'm not quite uh it would be I would find it hard pressed to invest in the founder unless it was like a personal relationship because I don't know that you're going to have any Edge over the many other private Equity firms that will all
2:13:04
presumably follow the same strategy right yeah there's classic examples of software PE guys coming in uh and there's 100 employees at the company firing 90 of them right and so firing all of them I don't know how much it's a better I don't know if
2:13:22
positioning in brand yeah and and it's it's tough as a buyer viral historically yeah it's very good way to get attention but what happens if this post goes viral a bunch of talented people say hey I want to work on this sounds fun and you're like well sorry we want to be a
2:13:35
one% billion dollar company will hire you as a contractor or something like that just can't have you on the W2 um and so why and and so setting these artificial constraints is cool as an experiment to say let's see what's possible going to come out of this and
2:13:52
maybe will force us to develop a gentic software that ends up being better but I thought it was interesting um the the gumroad founder now has something called antiwork okay where you can come just build software sure to replace humans at gumroad oh okay I think antiwork is
2:14:08
owned by gumroad sure and so there's other experiments that are going at this but the main thing is this guy isn't just competing yeah he's competing with every private Equity Firm that buys software companies and they don't care that you just have one
2:14:24
person on your team if they have a deal that they want to win they'll staff it with five people yep they'll tell the founder hey uh we're going to let go of a lot of people because we want to increase earnings but we're not going to let go of your you know we're not going
2:14:36
to let go of you or what you know whatever and so it really comes down to paying a good price winning the deal knowing that the deal is going to happen and I don't see um business owners being too thrilled about the thesis right you're going to fire my whole team it's
2:14:53
like no more like like even if you sell the private Equity if you've built up a business you're like well yeah like you're probably going to trim some people here and there wind down some relationships every time sure the company might be smaller in a few years
2:15:06
but the idea of just like oh day one the goal is just like zero employees like screw everyone it's like even more ruthless and like uh I mean when you go to the website of a private Equity company they don't put front and center because sometimes they don't like
2:15:20
sometimes they actually grow the staff because that's what's best for the business and they're really like they're they're in some ways more ruthless or maybe less ruthless but they're really just saying like we we actually just care about shareholder value and so that
2:15:33
might mean more jobs that might mean pay raises that might mean pay cuts it's like it's very dependent on what is and what this turns into is one person being the CEO because you still need a chief executive probably officer uh presumably for some amount of time um
2:15:54
anyways I'm excited to see it play out we cover it on the show I want them to be successful and let's see what happens yep um let's go through some other stuff uh bill hallan says the CEOs of the fastest growing startups are doing the following 100% in the office two very
2:16:13
very lean headcount three mostly homegrown exec teams four shooting for $1 trillion unicorns are dead bed and 5 80 hour work weeks you love it you put it in there cuz you're excited yeah shooting for a trillion about this a couple a couple
2:16:30
companies have been talking about a trillion I mean like there's more trillion dollar firms than ever now so you're only a few 10xs away from being a trillion dollar company it's true that's true so I think I think this is accurate I mean also like it's just hard to
2:16:42
underwrite this is the dynamic right now outcome yeah this this is a dynamic so if everybody has access to these AI tools that make everybody more efficient it actually just means you should work even more to just increase the Returns on that leverage totally uh so but you
2:16:59
know if you're saying 100% in office don't let me catch you on a zoom podcast Brian because I want to see you doing it in person that's right uh Ray says cursor is down I'm writing organic farm raised non-GMO code by hand the way our ancestors used to do 2K likes a lot of
2:17:19
people using cursor they're they're excited I I saw people got cursor working with uh with deep seek under the hood really bad that's the most that's the most inorganic the most nonfarm raised code you can cod with coding with some of these AI tools like Devon and
2:17:37
and cursor is like uh retired people in Vegas on the slot machines or you're just like yep You tab tab tab tab tab t um but you got to get the code written one way or another let's do another promoted post and we'll close out with a bucket poll promoted post from uh our
2:17:56
friend Sean Frank not his first time on the podcast certainly not his last he goes that's a lot of meta spend uh he was sent a plaque Ridge for being in the hundred million Club on Ridge that means they have spent $ hundred million uh with the greatest financial institution
2:18:15
through their ramp cards through their no well they have a bu they have payments product too so not not necessarily all through their cards although possible uh but it um but but yeah and and just goes to show I mean the ridge is a perfect example of a ramp
2:18:29
customer very large lots of uh lots of net income and uh run extremely efficiently and I love that it's a deal toy we need to bring back deal toys we've been trying to bring back deal toys we're working on some of our own yep uh so if you're a company or a
2:18:46
firm put on your list going to go on the desk it's going to be a constant reminder of like yeah ramp cares about me as as a as a business uh counterparty which is great I think this is in the back of a truck bed too oh really cool um very cool cool well let's close out
2:19:02
with this bucket poll from blue blue W Mist Blue says you are getting lapped by people 50% dumber than you because they don't overthink stuff Aim Fire correct later I love it some good ties into ties into your your strategy recently golden retriever mod rever maxing got to just
2:19:22
be friendly hot and dumb intelligence is going to be too cheap to me but high energy high energy high energy just do stuff just get out there just bark plays bark let your dogs bark grab that frisbee out of the air grab that Capital that half a trillion go get it half a
2:19:38
trillion go for one trillion woof woof bark bark let's go we'll see you watching everyone please goar review and leave an ad for your company or a friend's company in the review comments we love these five star reviews we'll print it out we'll read it on the show
2:19:53
it's a free ad read also big Monday uh as of now we're planning to do our first ever live show be happening from around call it 11: to 2 p.m. Pacific sounds great uh you're not going to want to miss it we're very excited to go live and uh have a good weekend thanks everyone bye