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I see multiple journalists on the horizon.

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founder and >> you're watching TVN.

4:40

>> Today is Friday, February 6th, 2026.

4:40

We are live from TVPN Ultradome Temple of Technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. It's a white suit day.

4:49

The market's out >> for the rally.

4:51

[applause] >> Don't check what the market did yesterday. Check what it's doing.

4:55

>> You never doubt it, did you?

4:55

doubted you bought >> you >> when the fear and greed indexed was >> is on full >> and nowhere post >> scared for it life >> it happens ramp.

5:07

com time is money save both easy to use corporate cards bill pay accounting and a whole lot more all in one place um we have a great show for you today folks we have Doug Olaflin from semi analysis joining to break down claude code uh TJ Parker's hopping on we got Max Lebchin part of the PayPal mafia co-founder and CEO of a firm and we're going we're bricked up.

5:29

We're going into data bricks territory.

5:30

It's going to be fantastic.

5:33

We also might have a surprise guest for you folks.

5:34

Anyway, linear of course is the system for modern software development.

5:37

70% of enterprise workspaces on linear are used agents. Get on there folks.

5:42

Uh >> big week >> bottlenecks. Bottlenecks.

5:45

Uh I mean we're we're going to talk about the cloud code moment, the cloud code psychosis, sort of the software singularity.

5:51

Doug Olaflin's coming on to talk about his experience, why he thinks this is a key inflection point.

5:55

Tyler Cowan was talking about this with the 5. 3 launch, Opus 4. 6 launch.

5:59

Like there's clearly uh signs of a takeoff.

6:05

It feels like a slow takeoff, but there there's there's a whole bunch of uh sort of recursive compounding elements that are starting to form. >> A recursive, you say? >> Yeah, recursive. Literally recursive.

6:16

Like you like the the models feed back into themselves, give them more task.

6:18

We saw this with Gas Town.

6:20

There's a whole bunch of stuff going on at orchestration that's interesting.

6:23

Uh, and so I wanted to sort of reflect on like if there's going to be a break, if there's going to be a damper on the party, if someone's going to pull away the punch bowl, who's it going to be, the semiconductor industry or the energy industry?

6:33

At the start of this year, I said it was going to be the year of energy.

6:38

I still think it's important to think about energy because that it will be a bottleneck, but this year >> and not even just because of AI, just for overall human flourishing. >> Totally. Totally. Yeah.

6:48

And uh and yeah, so we we we had some great conversations this week.

6:53

Sam Alman, uh we talked to Dylan Patel.

6:55

Uh we talked to Schultto, we talked to uh you know, we reviewed what Ben Thompson was saying.

6:59

Dwaresh interviewed Elon.

7:01

So there's a lot of new data points about how people are thinking about the trade-offs between semiconductor fabrication capacity and energy production capacity.

7:09

So I wanted to sort of like crystallize like where I think the debate and consensus is right now.

7:15

So first I'll tell you about octa.

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7:23

So um there's been this like tick- tock going back and forth in the AI supply chain.

7:31

What's the key bottleneck to growth?

7:31

Uh I it it does feel like only if you you have to work at an AI lab to really feel the bottleneck.

7:38

For most people, they're just like, I open the chat app, probably chat GBT.

7:43

I ask it a question, it gets back to me in a reasonable amount of time.

7:48

I'm not really hitting rate limits.

7:50

The rate limits come when there's big moments, the studio moment.

7:54

>> Have always felt the rate limiting is very real at with using anthropic products. >> Yes.

8:00

If you're if you're >> Which is why I asked Schultz yesterday. Yeah.

8:03

>> How what are what are free limits going?

8:05

>> Well, that's why you asked him that.

8:07

>> Just just it was just random that you asked.

8:08

also was interested completely in the context of Yes, it was completely in the context of of comput.

8:14

>> No, but they they've consistently been compute constrained at least they've talked about it more than more than most and and users have talked about it quite a lot.

8:23

So, I'm just quite curious what is the free experience going to be like Sunday if somebody downloads the app, sees the ads, they're like, I want >> I want LLMs without ads, even though no other popular LLM actually has ads yet.

8:36

Yeah, I do wonder um yeah about the about the clawed app experience.

8:39

um they're they're pretty upfront with you about the fact that if you're on the Opus model, like you'll hit your rate limits faster and even just a couple prompts deep, it will take a second and kind of compact the conversation so it can keep talking to you.

8:54

Like they I know they're increasing the the the token context window, but um there like it it feels like it's it works fine, but it is a low a smaller user base.

9:05

Although uh I'm very interested to see where it goes in the app store.

9:06

ChachiP is still at number one.

9:08

Uh, Grock is oddly doing incredible in the app store, way higher than Axe, the social networking app. >> Yeah. For no obvious reason.

9:19

>> I mean, like, there's just not a lot of hype about Grock.

9:21

Like, they're doing okay on benchmarks.

9:22

Obviously, Elon has a very solid playbook for like scaling and >> to me to me, I don't I don't care as much about hype. Yeah.

9:31

>> When it comes to the app store, there's plenty of apps on the app store charge that have no hype.

9:35

One of the top one of the top is it's called free cash. >> Free cash.

9:40

>> It's number two Gemini.

9:43

>> I understand why that one >> is is free cash. Get paid real money. >> Yeah.

9:47

>> Uh hot on Chad's heels. >> Yeah.

9:49

Well, let me tell you about Figma.

9:51

Figma make isn't your average vibe coding tool. It lives in Figma.

9:52

So outputs look good, feel real, and stay connected to how teams build >> codeback prototypes.

9:58

>> As part of we, you know, we have the OpenAI Elon lawsuit as part of that.

10:02

What if part of the settlement agreement is OpenAI has to give 40 to to Grock?

10:08

Let them >> I mean, they might just wind up.

10:10

>> Yesterday was seriously uh one of the craziest experiences if you weren't watching our SAM interview live and honestly the entire show.

10:19

>> Yeah, >> there was thousands of messages from people from 40 soldiers saying keep 40.

10:26

>> Keep 40 hash throwing hashtags.

10:26

You don't see hashtags no >> that much anymore, but they were throwing hashtags around keep 40.

10:33

>> Uh, so I think maybe if Elon can negotiate for that.

10:37

>> So, thank you to the TVPN army the day ones.

10:40

We will never switch up on you.

10:42

We'll never let the money change us.

10:43

We'll never forget where we came from.

10:44

>> Yeah, Bobby was going to you guys in the chat were doing overtime work keeping things somewhat sane.

10:50

There's not much you can do in that situation.

10:52

Uh, interestingly, uh, a lot of people were saying, "Oh, is it bots?"

10:56

Because there is this world where okay if you're playing really really dirty you could be a different lab and you could say okay this 40 thing maybe it's a little bit of a deal but I could amplify it with some fake bots that post more generate extra content.

11:12

It's very easy to generate a slot post that sounds like a for deranged person and then you could just amplify it and it would all of a sudden look like oh wow there's millions of people that are affected by this.

11:21

Um, but I don't think they were bots in the chat.

11:26

Like the the messages looked human to me. They weren't copypaste.

11:29

We get spam in the chat every once in a while.

11:33

We get this spam for a company that wants to route us to a a specific URL to like buy stream viewers, basically fake our account.

11:42

And so that bot knows, go around and five find live streams all over Twitch and pitch the Twitch streamers fake bots that will watch the stream to help them climb the charts, right?

11:53

Um, so that business model makes sense for those people.

11:56

You have to do like seven other steps to get to the point where like, okay, you're a rival lab and you don't like OpenAI and you're trying to create a headache for them.

12:02

So you create all these bots and then you have to have the bots ready to rock on a YouTube chat with that you had an hour notice for like that's pretty hard to set up all these YouTube accounts and it's not like the four the >> say you're not say you're not open claw pill. >> Okay. Okay.

12:19

Maybe it's possible but it didn't feel like they were bots and I think the chat agrees >> for telling these people save me. >> Yeah.

12:25

So there was a Reddit group that shared the stream link so they all came here.

12:28

There were some bots but uh it felt pretty crazy.

12:31

Um, and uh, yeah, it'll be interesting to see 40 is full fully going offline.

12:35

It's already very hard to reach.

12:37

You have to go into turn on legacy models and >> it's going offline right around Valentine's Day, >> I think February 13th.

12:42

Um, and I don't know how they'll respond.

12:45

In truth, it feels odd to me because it does seem like you can get the 40 experience elsewhere with a fine-tuned open- source model or uh or you know prompt engineering.

12:57

But uh the 40 fans really care about that specifically.

13:00

I think there's some sort of parasocial relationship with with even with the UI, with the app, with everything that's going on.

13:07

they they feel like it's it's not something that's perfectly replicable elsewhere, which is just like it's a just a fascinating weird time that I don't think we've ever seen because people were upset when Facebook launched the feed and they were like we want to go back and they made these groups and the groups got a lot of amplication.

13:23

Ironically, >> some people were upset when Microsoft stopped investing as heavily into Clippy. >> That's true. That's true.

13:29

But >> but >> I was never logging on to a Twitch stream and saying I got bring back Clippy.

13:36

Uh, and >> yeah, the the notable thing is they didn't seem to be able to process >> that it wasn't just a show about Sam >> because even after Sam had left, they just kept going. >> Yeah.

13:49

>> Which is very, very strange. >> Yeah. Yeah.

13:51

>> Anyways, I hope all of those people are able to >> uh find peace and uh hopefully help in real life. >> Yeah. Yeah. Very odd.

13:58

Um, anyway, back to the bottleneck.

14:01

Back to someone that's helping unblock the bottleneck. Railway.

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14:08

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14:17

>> I think railway is actually contributing [laughter] to the potentially to the demand >> potentially, but that's, you know, it's important work.

14:23

Um, anyway, so, uh, right now it feels like chips are the more important piece of the bottleneck to talk about.

14:28

Uh, Sam Alman put it this way.

14:30

I asked him like chips versus energy, what's the bigger bottleneck right now?

14:33

says it goes back and forth, but right now it's chips.

14:35

It's different at different times.

14:37

It may get solved on its own.

14:39

Normal capitalism may solve it, but I think somehow deciding as a society that we are going to increase the wafer capacity of the world and we're going to fund that and we're going to get the whole supply chain and the talented people who make that happen would be a very good thing to do.

14:53

And so why do we have a chip bottleneck to begin with?

14:56

Semiconductors have been doubling and you know we've been on this Morris law curve.

14:59

What's interesting is that the the the semiconductor industry should be better equipped to avoid a bottleneck because it's already been on an exponential whereas energy production has just been like flat sort of like a malaise for a long time.

15:10

Getting on getting that unstuck is hard but I think that's a problem for 2027 potentially.

15:16

So the the chip bottleneck comes down to consolidation.

15:20

uh power plants, data centers, cooling technology.

15:23

There's a bunch of suppliers in each of these industries and you can parallelize them and you can steer resources from adjacent areas to focus on AI projects specifically.

15:32

Even a company like Boom Supersonic can turn into a turbine manufacturer and there's a lot of other industries that are able to move over uh and Dylan Patel gave us some extra extra context there.

15:44

So um uh he said uh the semiconductor industry is used to doubling the amount of transistors made every year or two.

15:51

Part of that is more advanced nodes.

15:54

Part of that's more capacity whereas the energy industry in America wasn't built for that kind of growth.

16:00

So initially people weren't creative they were like let's build these combined cycle gas plants.

16:04

But now we've realized, yes, there are three main manufacturers of turbines.

16:08

And for dual combined cycle, you've got IGTs, but you've also got medium-speed reciprocating engines.

16:14

Turns out Cumins can make about a million diesel engines a year, and those can generate electricity.

16:20

I don't if I don't care about aesthetics and I put them in West Texas, easy.

16:24

And so there's all these different areas where you can reallocate.

16:27

You can't just take an Intel CPU and do anything useful in AI with it.

16:32

It's just >> Elon also on on Cheeky Pint with uh >> Dorash and John talked about >> uh the Tesla team adapting.

16:39

He he thinks they'll have to actually make turbine blades because they can get a lot of the other components, but they may have to actually make those. >> Okay. >> Yeah.

16:48

So, back to the leading edge fabs.

16:50

It's a completely different beast.

16:50

Uh these fabs cost tens of billions.

16:53

30 50 75 80 billion I've seen uh to build and it takes three four sometimes five years to go from breaking ground to actually getting up to producing volume.

17:04

Uh and you and we have like the perfect example of this because TSMC uh announced a plant in Arizona in 2020 and in 2025 it's still not producing ad volume. It's doing really well.

17:16

It's great but that's five years and it's not just like oh yeah it's it's it's as effective as what's in Taiwan.

17:22

Um, and so, uh, ASML is is, uh, the only viable producer of E EUV lithography machines.

17:29

And so, there's this bottleneck within the chip bottleneck, which is the TSMC supplier, ASML, and they ship around 50 EUV machines per year, maybe 50, 60.

17:39

Each one cost $350 million.

17:41

And leading edge fabs need dozens.

17:43

So, if you want to build a bunch more fabs, you need a bunch more tool makers.

17:46

And ASML has its own supply chain for different uh, lenses and glass and all sorts of stuff. They work with Zeiss.

17:51

uh Trump, whole bunch of different companies and that supply chain is not very diversified.

17:55

So you have another bottleneck even deeper in the supply chain.

17:59

And so all these vendors are highly specialized.

18:00

Um and then even after you get the fab built, there's still at least a year of processing engineering, maybe 12 to 18 months where you actually work to get to high yield production.

18:10

We're seeing that in TSMC Arizona.

18:11

And TSMC just has decades of intellectual capital locked in the heads of engineers that they can't easily transfer or parallelize.

18:17

Uh and so this has made TSMC the real bottleneck.

18:22

Hyperscalers are pushing capex numbers into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

18:25

We'll talk about this more in the show.

18:26

Um but the supply curve for leading edge wafers is relatively inelastic.

18:29

There's also this bullhip effect when uh during COVID we weren't shipping cars, so a bunch of people cut back on demand and so that pulled things back and it takes years for these to work through.

18:39

then you get over capacity.

18:40

Everyone demands way more and then you overexpand and then you collapse and it's it's this constant and the further out you are in the supply chain the more the bull whip affects you.

18:49

Um so TSMC controls 90% of the advanced node market with Samsung and Intel far behind and this is why Ben Thompson aside from the geopolitical concerns about TSMC is really urging tech companies uh to wake up.

19:02

And so he says the reality that hyperscalers and fabish chip companies need to wake up to however is that avoiding the risk of working with someone other than TSMC incurs new risks that are both harder to see and also more substantial.

19:16

So there's a huge risk if you say you know what I'm going to go and place a huge order with Samsung or Intel or I'm going to I'm going to take a huge risk and be the be the anchor customer of their new uh cutting edge leading edge fab.

19:28

uh cutting edge leading edge fab. Um but Ben Thompson saying there's a risk to not doing that and he says except again we can see the harms already foregone revenue today as demand outstrips supply today's shortages however may prove to

19:43

be peanuts if AI has the potential these companies claim it does future foregone revenue at the end of the decade is going to cost exponentially more surely a lot more than whatever is necessary expense-wise to make Samsung or Intel into viable competitors for TSMC. You

19:57

You really got to wonder what conversations are like between uh Jensen and TSMC right now. >> Yeah.

20:05

>> Given that uh it just doesn't feel I mean Taiwan is uh TSMC is not uh they're certainly not going out and making kind of going risk on, right?

20:14

They're staying uh relatively uh probably more conservative than uh some of their downstream customers would like. >> Pop quiz.

20:25

Do you know where TSMC is listed?

20:29

the New York Stock Exchange.

20:29

Want to change [applause] the world?

20:31

Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. Just do it. Just be like TSMC. Just build a $ 1.

20:37

5 trillion semiconductor company. That would be nice. We need more of these.

20:43

>> Um anyway, let's move on to uh the hyperscalers.

20:46

Uh Compound 248 says, "Poor Jassie, Andy Jasse.

20:49

He's going to learn something about Amazon today.

20:51

When Google announces a crazy number, it's because it's playing offense.

20:55

But when Amazon announces a crazy number, it's because it's playing defense. Ipso facto.

21:01

So Amazon said it will spend $200 billion this year on AI buildout. This is from Bloomberg.

21:06

Um but this is worrying investors that the company's colossal bet on artificial intelligence will pinch profits while it waits for the investments to pay off.

21:15

The shares fell in extended trading.

21:17

The company reported spending 130 billion $130 billion on property and equipment in 2025.

21:25

Analysts expect those expenses would reach 150 billion this year, but Amazon's saying we're going to 200.

21:33

We're we're we're going we're going all in.

21:35

So, the stock's down uh maybe 8% in after hours trading.

21:38

Uh likely back up today because things are going going better, but we'll see.

21:43

How is how is uh uh Amazon doing today?

21:47

uh not as uh down but not as violently as it was uh after hours last night after earnings.

21:54

>> So over the last month it's sold off 15%. >> Yeah.

21:57

And a lot of uh frustration from Amazon. >> Yeah.

22:01

>> Shareholders obviously they had the fastest growth in 13 quarters and the stock is still down 10%.

22:05

Uh Amazon uh looking back over the last five years to uh early 2021 only up 23% over five years.

22:15

So, um, of course, uh, you did quite a lot better if you you bought, uh, uh, you know, after, uh, after the overall ZER sell-off. >> Yeah. Yeah.

22:25

Just not as not as sexy as a narrative as the rest of the hyperscalers.

22:28

Uh, Zuck obviously is a huge beneficiary of, uh, of advancements in AI.

22:33

We see that with the accelerating uh, accelerating ads market.

22:36

Microsoft, even though yeah, it's getting beat up a little bit now, they they have like that massive position in OpenAI that feels like fully in solid place.

22:45

They got the IP, they got, you know, a real hold on the AI question.

22:50

Google's obviously in a fantastic place.

22:52

Nvidia clearly, but Amazon's had a little bit rougher.

22:56

>> Yeah, yesterday was just such a strange day.

22:58

Uh, reform trader says software stocks are cooked for not investing in AI.

23:03

Mag 7 stocks are cooked for investing heavily in AI. Hope that helps. >> It is. It is crazy. You need to do both. Invest and don't both. Uh and and don't invest. Oh, this is the image. I love this image. Wait, what's this from?

23:14

Matt Damon in uh >> which one? >> I don't know.

23:19

In rounders, I watched last night.

23:21

We were just talking about this. >> That's rounders.

23:22

I thought Goodwill Hunting for some reason, but same era.

23:26

So, uh this is a summary of the 2026 capex numbers from the hyperscalers.

23:30

Google is going to do 175 185 billion versus 120 estimated.

23:34

Meta is doing 115 to 135 relative uh against 110 estimated.

23:41

Tesla's going to 20 billion from 11 billion estimated.

23:45

And Amazon, they were estimating 145, but they're going to do 200.

23:51

And so they're going all in.

23:55

>> One of the top comments here is uh very funny.

23:57

It says, "What exactly is Meta buying?

24:00

They don't do anything with AI."

24:02

[laughter] >> That's not true. They open up reels.

24:06

It's AI like they are recommending all sorts of stuff and >> yeah so much inference LA purchaser says he could uh talking about uh somebody says is English Jasse's first language ripping off the headphones.

24:20

Uh and they say he could just say this is a generational investing opportunity that TAM is an order of magnitude bigger than anyone is contemplating.

24:27

We are the market leader.

24:29

We are investing to be the cost leader.

24:30

the cost leader. What did we what we did in retail we are doing here the more money we spend the more excited we get about the opportunity there is a very tangible ROI we see it you're going to see it in the numbers you are seeing AWS

24:42

accelerate it will keep accelerating he says instead we got a word salad where you can pick your own conclusion yeah it wasn't it wasn't um nothing about the uh earning like people can feel the emotion and the energy right there wasn't they can uh

25:00

>> uh there wasn't anything to like obviously the business is doing great but there wasn't anything to like rally around and get really excited by right there's zero vision and um yeah even even in uh even in the cheeky pint Elon episode >> you know Daresh and John are pushing

25:17

Elon on the data centers in space thing and I thought that Elon could have done more to really get people basically the same thing that TAM is an order of magnitude bigger than anyone is contemplating and uh we are investing for that future Right. It was a lot of like trying to

25:30

It was a lot of like trying to justify >> putting it up there. Yeah. >> Yeah.

25:36

When when they were saying like, "Hey, there's a lot of land in the US.

25:39

We can blanket the US with solar panels. We do a lot here."

25:43

>> Um and so again, I think people are getting kind of caught up in >> the details. Yeah.

25:47

>> When if you're going to spend, you know, you would hope >> AWS making this kind of investment >> Yeah.

25:54

>> that they have more conviction than Tyler does [laughter] on the opportunity, right?

25:59

Uh, I don't know if that's I don't know if that's possible.

26:02

>> Tyler's in the white suit. He's looking good. [laughter] >> Yeah.

26:04

Looking looking good, Tyler. >> Yeah.

26:06

Uh, >> round of applause [applause and cheering] for Tyler.

26:09

>> Round of applause for Plaid.

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26:18

Um, this is a classic Elon thing where, you know, he will lay out a vision that takes 10, 20, 30 years, but he says it's going to take 10, 20, 30 months.

26:27

And so, you have to sort of grapple with the short term and but still you can't lose sight of like the long term because like we did get rockets that land and we did get space internet and whatnot.

26:39

Yeah, I think he said uh like 36 months is his estimate for like when we start getting uh like comput in space like probably 30 months I think.

26:48

But then so there's like kind of the that's like the shorter term thing.

26:51

But then he he did talk about um like terowatts in space, right?

26:53

So like >> the US is currently like half a terowatt, but we're going to be putting terawatts in space >> of comput.

27:01

>> He's sort of like falling back to first principles and just talking about >> Yeah.

27:04

He keeps repeating like oh if you just look at like physics >> Yeah.

27:07

>> but it's kind of this catch all term he uses when he doesn't really know what to say. It seems like >> Yeah. Well, yeah.

27:10

It just seems like it it's like the the physics it it it all checks out from the physics calculations, but when you map that to the economic realities, the human capital and financial capital realities, you're just looking at a very long timeline.

27:28

And he doesn't like talking about thinking in decades.

27:30

Even though it's very clear that he does think in decades, he just doesn't articulate things in decades because >> it seems like the short-term like bull case for for space data centers is basically just like uh you know regulatory, right?

27:42

It's just going to be way too hard to find this to find like the actual land. >> Yeah.

27:46

Didn't Well, Manitis post something about that.

27:47

He said that uh like it's going to become really really difficult to build any data centers in the United States.

27:53

Although you can certainly go to other c other countries with that.

27:56

I'm sure there's plenty of countries that would love the jobs and the and the the taxes.

27:59

You know, you see India already saying, "Hey, we'll just take a slice in 20 years."

28:04

That's how AGI pill they are.

28:06

They're like, "Come build a data center here.

28:08

You can be taxfree for 20 years, but then we're going to be making money in what 2046.

28:16

They're ready to rock quickly."

28:16

Graphite code review for the age of AI.

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28:24

You wanted to talk about >> Magnus in the chat.

28:27

>> None of you know physics.

28:27

They were feeding him drinks. Chill out.

28:30

[laughter] >> It is actually a crazy.

28:32

I mean, we've never seen a Cheeky Pine episode where they actually drank.

28:37

>> They did drink on this one.

28:38

>> They That was the main feedback from last year.

28:40

>> Everyone's like, "Hey, great show, cool concept, great guest."

28:44

>> Well, they were filming a lot of them like during the workday with people in San Francisco.

28:47

So, it was somebody who would like pop over, film an episode, and then you got to go back to work.

28:51

So you don't necessarily want to be chugging pints, but >> um it it is it is funny that yeah, it feels like Elon took down three pints or four pints or something. You did the math.

29:01

>> So we'll talk about this later.

29:01

I there's some posts, but um I you know they seemed a bit smaller than normal pints maybe.

29:07

So is it really but I counted I counted three like full >> glasses by uh the other thing so Sam was obviously quite bearish on space data centers in the near term.

29:17

It is worth calling out that there was a rumor last year that they were kick he was kicking the tires on Rocket Lab. You remember that?

29:25

So I think like long-term I'm sure he'll he'll have want to have his own >> Yeah. >> space company.

29:31

>> But I but I think he just he would he would rather like if there's a hype cycle like he doesn't need it to be about him.

29:37

He he can he can let this one pass by and focus on the other things that are going on with the business because the there's so much going on with the business.

29:45

like if you add too many narratives, it can actually confuse things.

29:48

Uh the the the X X AI SpaceX combination is crazy, but the space data center thing actually does sort of streamline the narrative in my opinion.

29:58

What do you think, Tyler?

29:59

>> Yeah, I mean I think Elon Doresh asked a question about this, which is like, oh, it's so crazy that like SpaceX, they have this super ambitious mission, but they they keep seeming to find these like good businesses on the way, right?

30:09

So you so first it's like Starlink with with Falcon and then with with Starship it's like >> I mean can you do we really need that many Starlinks?

30:15

But if you can get space data centers Yep.

30:17

If you're if you're putting up terowatts of compute then like yeah you need like massive you know >> OTP in the chat says dude just turned 21 and he can already eye a [laughter] >> he's been studying the last week.

30:31

>> Uh what did Bubble Boy said?

30:31

$660 billion of capex this year on AI data centers.

30:37

To put a number like that in perspective, this is more than what we spent on the US interstate highway system, 630 billion.

30:43

More than what we spent on the Apollo moon program, 257 billion.

30:48

More than what we spent on the International Space Station, 150 billion.

30:51

Uh, it's more money than Walmart's revenue last year, 650 billion.

30:55

Um, it's about 25% of all military spending globally.

30:58

It's equivalent to buying 50 Gerald R. Ford aircraft carriers.

31:02

It's the equivalent of spending $1.

31:04

8 8 billion a day, $750 million an hour or $1. 2 million a minute.

31:11

This year alone is without a doubt the biggest project in the history of capitalism and we are spending it all.

31:17

We're spending all of it in one year. God's sake.

31:20

>> He did uh Bubble Boy did uh uh do the inflation adjustment here.

31:24

Apollo the Apollo program cost something like 25 >> back then >> billion.

31:29

Um yeah uh to putting also putting it into perspective uh France announced uh an initiative earlier this week.

31:38

They uh they want to lead in uh AI research.

31:42

So through their 20 France 2030 program they have invested more than 30 million euros in this in this initiative.

31:51

Uh, Macron says, "Science has found its home."

31:54

[laughter] And Sean Frank says, "France is investing 30 million in this new AI initiative.

32:00

That's how much Google will spend in 90 minutes." No joke.

32:02

Every 90 minutes, Google will spend 30 million on capex this year. One company. >> Wow. One company. >> Yeah.

32:09

They they can hire Ilia for like an hour. >> I know.

32:12

One hour consulting call.

32:12

Get >> He's got to get on Get in. [laughter] >> Yeah. Intro. >> Hit up Rad >> Vibe.

32:19

co Co, where DTOC brands, B2B startups, and AI companies advertise on streaming TV.

32:23

Pick channels, target audiences, and measure sales just like on Meta.

32:28

Take him is breaking down the Nvidia news. The stock is up 6. 22%.

32:31

Nvidia shares barely moved in after hours trading last night.

32:36

>> Yeah, this is what I said.

32:36

I was like, Amazon just announced that, hey, we're going to spend, you know, what are they going to buy with those?

32:42

I mean, they will buy uh Tranium and Infentia, but they're going to buy a lot of Nvidia. you know it.

32:47

Um, take him said, "You all know I was already insanely bullish on Nvidia's NVL72 super cycle this year.

32:55

These capex numbers from Google and Amazon blow away even my most optimistic expectations for Nvidia's main end consumer market."

33:01

And we also saw from uh Greg Brockman that uh GB200 is off to the races.

33:08

The Blackwell chips are now uh in full force over at OpenAI powering 5. 3.

33:13

There's a little bit of debate over whether that was train involved in training or inference, but it doesn't really matter.

33:20

Blackwell's here and it's going to improve things.

33:22

So, and that's uh probably good for chip designers, which uh Nvidia is obviously one of.

33:27

Let me tell you about Lambda.

33:30

Lambda is the super intelligence cloud building AI supercomputers for training and inference that scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands.

33:38

Stephen over at Lambda was the one who sent me that uh that post from uh France originally.

33:46

>> Yeah, you were >> he was uh get some >> you were not kind.

33:49

You were making fun of him.

33:51

But uh it's a good post going all in on AI with $30 [laughter] million.

33:55

It's really like the it has the uh uh what's it called?

33:59

$1 million because you're not aware of inflation because you've been frozen for 50 years or something like that.

34:06

Uh, let's go over to the Wall Street Journal. >> Yes.

34:12

>> Behind Disney search for a lasting successor to Bob Iger. >> Yeah.

34:16

>> Company's succession committee reviewed information on over a hundred candidates before the race was narrowed to two. >> 100. This seems crazy. Update your thorough.

34:25

If you were reviewed, you got to you got to put it here.

34:26

to you got to put it here. So uh the trio which is Bob Iger, Josh Dearo and Dana Walden uh they were meeting in Disney's executive dining room trio sat in a private room with panoramic views of Disney studio lot and surrounding San

34:42

Francisco Valley where Iger discussed scenarios the board of directors was considering could tomorrow we got to is it Diamaro or Dearo Deurro Doug Deurro is he related to Doug Dearro Diamarro chair of Disney's experience business including theme parks and consumer products. Walden, co-chairman of the

35:00

Walden, co-chairman of the entertainment business, lead the company together.

35:03

What about uh what about with one in charge and the other as deputy?

35:09

Diamaro and Walden, who by that point were the finalists to succeed, said they were open to all the scenarios.

35:13

Disney's board of directors was scheduled to meet in the same building and hold its final vote on who the next CEO would be the following Thursday.

35:21

people close to the company predicted DMR would be given the top job with Walden elevated role to ensure she she stayed.

35:28

The only surprise it turned out was the timing.

35:31

Keenly aware of the intense public anticipation, Disney's 10 directors, including Iger voted unanimously Monday to make tomorrow CEO and Walton president and chief creative officer.

35:42

We were ready to go and I didn't like sitting there with the news.

35:46

sitting there with the news. board chairman James Gorman who led the succession process said in an interview and >> yeah that was really fast rumor rumors hit uh hit the various outlets and then it was like >> confirmed immediately live that was smart >> um at an employee town hall dear Diamaro described the moment as surreal and said

36:10

he was initially embarrassed by his reaction I got a little choked up when they let me know because it's a big responsibility it is a big responsibility His ascension will, say for any unexpected snafuss, mark the end of a decade plus search for a lasting successor to Bob Iger that has been marked by delays, missteps, and reversals. Employees said they are happy

36:27

Employees said they are happy to have the biggest question about the company's future finally resolved and anxious about what a former parks leader running the company with a veteran television executive as his top deputy will mean for Disney's >> Let's give it up for veteran television.

36:42

[applause] So Gorman had previously run a leadership succession project at Morgan Stanley.

36:49

He took over Disney's process in 2024 after joining the board.

36:53

He said the succession committee reviewed information on more than a hundred candidates and homeed and homeed in on several outsiders along with four Disney executives tomorrow Walden entertainment co-chairman Alan Bergman and ESPN chief Jimmy Petaro.

37:08

Gorman said the inter the board interviewed the candidates formally and in intimate lunches.

37:13

They conducted 360 interviews with uh with Disney executives talking to subordinates and colleagues as well as bos as well as bosses.

37:21

By last summer, the race had narrowed to two candidates.

37:25

Demarro and Walden traveled to Orlando in August to present their visions for Disney's future at a board meeting.

37:29

The Wall Street Journal previously reported this.

37:33

Uh in ensuing months, them they met with board members in a less formal setting.

37:37

Both executives talked to Iger frequently about what it took to run a company like Disney.

37:42

Employees noticed and gossip was rampant.

37:43

Staffers speculated about whether Dearo's background in parks would hurt him given that Bob Chapac had also run the company's theme park before his short-lived tenure at C as CEO. >> Yeah, that'd be wild.

37:55

Hey, we had a we had a misstep with a parks guy. No more parks, guys.

37:59

Yeah, Disney's leaders wanted the succession process to be as clean as possible without runners up leaving the company given the CHEAC fiasco.

38:07

We wanted to get this right, said Gorman.

38:10

As a result, few were surprised that Walden was named president, a position no one has held at Disney in 20 years.

38:16

With a rec with a re recommended retention bonus worth 5.

38:18

3 million, Walden's cre creative officer position is one is a new one for Disney.

38:26

Some in the company's movies division are nervous about w what Walden's rise will mean for their business which she hasn't worked in before now and uh but which she hasn't worked in before and now she oversees it.

38:37

Uh but there she is with the founders award at the international emmys New York getting an award.

38:43

A few company leaders >> founders podcast award.

38:47

>> I don't know what the founders award at the international emmes is for like it's not for a founder because he executive.

38:55

It's a prestigious honor bestowed by the international academy of television arts and sciences to individuals or organizations making a significant impact on global television. Okay. Founders. Let's go.

39:06

>> Anyways, let's uh move on to >> Dirty Soda. >> Dirty soda.

39:11

We got to talk about the Utah.

39:13

>> Have you heard of the world before? >> On Dirty Soda.

39:16

>> I've never heard of Dirty Dirty Soda before. Have you heard of this? >> Yeah. Yeah. This is big in Utah. >> This big in Utah?

39:21

>> Have you been to Utah? >> Uh, no.

39:23

>> How do you know that it's big in Utah [laughter] then?

39:25

>> Uh, it's like my friends like sent it to me on Instagram.

39:28

They're like, "Look at this." >> Okay. >> All right.

39:29

What is >> You have friends who live in Utah?

39:32

>> It's like It's like soda and they put like cream in it and stuff, right? >> Okay.

39:36

Uh, [laughter] well, we'll we'll dig in.

39:38

I think I think we'll let the we'll let the Wall Street Journal get the facts straight.

39:42

Uh, but first, I'll tell you about Phantom Cash.

39:44

Fund your wallet without without exchanges or middlemen and spend with the Phantom Card.

39:47

Uh, >> a mom with five children ages 6 to 16 in St.

39:52

George, Utah, Nicole Tanner didn't realize she was on to something with dirty soda.

39:56

That's what the creator of the chain Swig calls spiking Coke, Mountain Dew, or Dr.

40:00

pepper with fruit purees and flavored cream served in plastic cups stuffed with pebble ice. Uh microl plastic. Uh >> nightmare. >> Nightmare. >> Really?

40:11

I didn't know pebble ice was at risk. >> No, no, no.

40:13

I'm talking about I'm just saying plastic cup. >> Oh, the plastic cup.

40:16

>> Her business took off a few years ago when pop star Olivia Rodrigo was in Utah filming that TV series High School Musical and posted an Instagram photo holding a cup from Swig.

40:23

Now # dirty soda is the hashtag. Big chains want in.

40:29

McDonald's recently tested Sprite with lemon vanilla syrup and dragon fruit Taco Bell swirls.

40:35

>> It's teal colored Baja Dream freezes with vanilla cream and calls it a Mountain Dew Baja Blast Dirty Freeze.

40:42

>> Oh, we forgot to ask Sam Alman if he's going to issue a Baja Blast cuz he did the Code Red.

40:46

[laughter] >> It's time for a Baja Blast.

40:49

>> It's time to Baja Blast. He's back to the top.

40:52

>> Maybe that's what the Super Bowl ad codeex.

40:54

>> Oh, that would be Baja Blast.

40:54

Kodak collab campaign for the builders.

41:00

>> Yes, >> TGI Fridays last year started offering a line of dirty sodas and can be amped up with shots of Jack Daniels Hennessy.

41:06

>> That sounds When I hear dirty soda, I feel like it's spiked with alcohol, but apparently just uh [laughter] >> dirty Sprite. That's like >> Yeah. Oh, yeah. That's right. The future.

41:16

Yeah, that's >> And Drive-In Chain Sonic has encouraged customers to make it dirty by ordering creamer and mixins with their sodas.

41:23

While the heart of dirty sodas may still be Utah and the Mountain West states, Swig has expanded to around 140 locations across 16. That's fast. >> This is insane.

41:31

To me, to me, this feels like a really tough business to be in long term because if if the product becomes popular, >> everyone has it.

41:40

>> Everyone has it immediately. You have no real IP. Yeah. >> Right.

41:42

Because you're just using sodas off the shelf.

41:46

>> Um, so yeah, I'd be interested to see what happens to these 140 locations even though the product is a hit.

41:50

Tanner's main investor, family investment office, Larry H.

41:53

Miller Co, brought in a professional chief executive who has taken other companies public >> and he is talking of an eventual initial public offering for the chain which had around 100 million in sales last year.

42:05

>> Tanner, I mean, these must be incredibly simple to run. It's literally a box.

42:07

You have soda and creamer.

42:10

>> So, I could see even >> they don't sell food or anything here.

42:14

This is like such a simple.

42:16

>> We're doing what Starbucks did for coffee, but for soda, said Swig CEO Alex Dunn.

42:20

So, Alex Dunn says, "Pull up here." >> Yes. >> 6:00 a. m. on the way to the gym. Grab a big soda.

42:27

>> I feel like you'd need more caffeine if you really wanted to displace Starbucks.

42:31

People will really just stop at a dedicated place just to get a tasty soda. That's a crazy >> Gabe.

42:36

Gabe is sharing a quote from Future.

42:38

Dirty soda and a styrofoam.

42:40

Spend a day to get my mind blown.

42:42

[laughter] >> Oh, LH Miller was the owner of the Utah Jazz. Interesting.

42:45

Tyler, did you have more context here?

42:47

Well, [snorts] I was just going to say on the caffeine thing, isn't the whole point that it doesn't have it's like not caffeinated, right? Because they're Mormon. >> Oh, okay.

42:54

So, it's a Utah thing, >> I think. So, yeah. >> Okay. Okay. >> At least originally.

42:59

>> Or there's like a little caffeine, but you can probably do caffeine-free Coca-Cola or something.

43:03

>> I started uh I did something recently that that that felt uh it felt really wrong, but the result was good.

43:08

I mixed a yerba with a Mexican Coke. >> Oo. Okay.

43:13

>> And it was it was fantastic. >> A matina. >> Yeah. >> Mexican Coke. Yeah, it's fun.

43:16

Gemini 3 Pro, Google's most intelligent model yet.

43:21

State-of-the-art reasoning, next level vibe coding, deep multimodal understanding.

43:24

Uh Tanner grew up on an Idaho dairy farm, the fifth of eight children.

43:28

She got her associate degree in office education. That is a sweet degree. >> Wow.

43:34

>> We who who runs office education here? >> Office education.

43:38

We need some >> Maybe maybe we do.

43:41

>> Here's how you use cloud code. Here's how.

43:43

>> And started working in marketing for a library system software company.

43:44

Let's give it up for Library System software company.

43:48

I I bet you I bet you this is more durable business than some of the other SAS out there.

43:53

Um she got married and by 23 started family.

43:55

Tanner started working for Mary Kay selling makeup and skin care products and eventually building a team of 18 consultants.

44:01

Let's give it up for MLMs.

44:04

>> Yeah, [laughter] >> I think they would uh dispute that, right? >> Yeah.

44:10

Anytime you >> they don't like the pyramid scheme term, but I I don't know.

44:12

Maybe all >> multi-level marketing, I think, is just a strategy, right?

44:15

In 2007, the Tanners move with their five children to St. George from Colorado.

44:20

She was a 38-year-old mother of five, craving caffeine and tired of water down fountain soda when she decided to turn her cravings into a business in 2010. >> Oh, wait. >> Overnight success.

44:31

>> So, coffee wasn't a choice.

44:31

Tanner is Mormon and adherence typically traditionally abstain from coffee, but you could have caffeine >> in >> in soda. I didn't realize that.

44:41

That seems like a loophole. Interesting.

44:45

>> This is This is I love this.

44:45

Tanner and her husband use savings to avoid taking out a business loan to buy a 700 square foot commercial building in St.

44:51

George with a big parking lot.

44:53

It's like people are like, "Oh, I moved to San Francisco and I had a mattress on the floor.

44:57

I have so much conviction." Okay.

44:59

Buy a building for your untested >> soda company with all your savings. That's real conviction. >> Lever up. Get the mortgage.

45:07

Her idea was to serve super cold soda with a twist like lime fruit or purees.

45:13

>> Tanner initially leased a fountain machine from Coca-Cola.

45:15

When she asked Pepsi Coke for the same, Tanner said the company took a pass.

45:18

Soda rivals typically push restaurant chains to stock their products exclusively.

45:21

So Tanner bought 2 L bottles of Pepsi and Mountain Dew from grocery stores.

45:26

I love seeing your face when you ask for a Diet Coke on a plane and they say, "Is Pepsi okay?"

45:34

And you just say, "Absolutely not."

45:37

After about a month, Pepsi relented.

45:37

She said >> now she has >> she started with limes, lemons, and six flavor shots.

45:42

She recruited her eldest daughter and niece to work in the store.

45:46

Her 15-year-old son held up signs outside advertising that job not going away sign.

45:51

>> I've been getting so many spy signing reels with the you broke my heart.

45:56

You know that one guy, but I see all of his reels [laughter] and it's just like him being like I don't have a job and then this is crazy.

46:01

He can actually spin that into an interesting digital ad business because he could just do the sign online because the video >> I I honestly never see what's on the sign though because it's spinning so fast. >> No, I know.

46:15

But use that as a lead in promote ramp. >> Yeah. >> Good.

46:21

>> Tanner, in the beginning, price for drinks at a dollar for any size. That's crazy.

46:25

I didn't know you could get anything for a dollar in this country anymore.

46:28

Helping draw students from nearby Utah Tech University.

46:32

a local news broadcast found customers waiting to get a mango puree Mountain Dew or Big Al soda. >> That's interesting.

46:38

I saw the >> I don't know if this is a big al soda or big AI soda.

46:43

>> So they said they said uh a few years ago Olivia Rodrigo promoted it and it went viral.

46:49

I thought this business was only a few years old.

46:51

I guess >> no, it's it's an overnight success.

46:52

They started overnight success.

46:56

>> That's pretty remarkable. Yeah.

46:57

>> After customers started referring to Swig's Dr.

46:58

pepper and cream combination as dirty soda. >> Mhm.

47:03

>> Tanner latched onto the phrase encouraging customers.

47:04

They got to they got to pay Future royalty [laughter] here.

47:07

I won't I won't stand by that.

47:09

>> They should get Future as a influencer. That'd be good. >> Yeah.

47:12

He's like, when I said dirty soda, I meant >> pro magazine.

47:15

[laughter] >> Uh by 2017, Swig had grown to more than a dozen stores.

47:19

The staff was spread thin and Tanner realized she lacks lack the expertise to grow further.

47:24

She and her husband separated in 2020.

47:27

>> RIP, and is no longer involved in Swig.

47:29

And I hate when I'm just like reading this incredible story of entrepreneurship.

47:33

And then and then they kind of interrupt the the flow there.

47:35

Uh in 2025, she married Greg Robinson, and they continue to live in Utah. Good >> guy.

47:42

>> It was held together with some duct tape and hair pins, said Andrew Smith, a Utah based investor whose savory fund invest.

47:48

>> Oh, they took a majority stake. Interesting. They bought that. >> Very cool.

47:52

Um, in recent years, Swig has gotten a boost from the cast of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, a reality TV show chronicling a group of Utah based Tik Tok influencers. >> Interesting.

48:01

>> We're at Swig, so I can tell you exactly what my Swig order is.

48:04

>> It's sparkling water, sugar-free pineapple, sugar-free peach, sugar-free vanilla, raspberry puree with a fresh lime.

48:11

[laughter] >> That's crazy. >> So over the top.

48:15

>> Anyways, uh, what a what a what a cool story.

48:17

Yeah, Tanner says, "We're in extreme high growth mode right now."

48:19

The company estimates it serves over 2,000 drinks at a single conference.

48:26

>> Uh, the White House has posted biggest period bull period run period ever period starting period. >> Did they post this? Scroll down. >> Yeah. No.

48:37

So, so they're sharing a fake screenshot. Okay.

48:40

from True Social [laughter] where Donald Trump says, "Let the gains begin."

48:49

>> I mean, he really did call the the bottom >> of of >> at least a local bottom of a veracity in truth.

48:56

[laughter] No, I'm just saying like if you bought if you bought Nvidia when he if you bought Nvidia when he when this fake post was was >> shared by the real account is is but is what White House post is not even the real account, right?

49:11

That's just a fake 14,000 follower account.

49:12

So everything about this is fake.

49:16

>> Everything [laughter] about and then and then they follow up.

49:18

I highly recommend you follow White House grandpa.

49:20

It's like what what are we doing here? >> Very strange. Absolutely.

49:24

Well, do your own research and get on public. com.

49:29

Investing for those who take it seriously, not from fake news on a podcast.

49:32

Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service that isn't fake news.

49:40

>> Goldman Sachs is tapping anthropics AI model to automate accounting and compliance roles.

49:44

Embedded anthropic engineers have spent six months at Goldman building autonomous systems for time inensive high volume back office work.

49:52

It was one of my first one of my first jobs >> bull market and forward deployed engineers for anthropic. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

50:00

>> Like it will be funny if if if like true diffusion requires two decades of just millions of consultants working with businesses of all size to implement AI systems. >> Yeah, probably.

50:13

I mean the the the task horizon every time I see it six hours that's amazing.

50:18

And you were making the comment of like, you know, how many times do you really sit there and and spend six hours working autonomously, but there's a different frame which is like a consultant can come in with the with a goal and work pretty much autonomously for like months.

50:31

And so there is a world where you know to to not have an a forward deployed engineer in the loop, you need the task horizon to be like years basically. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

50:42

And building a company like takes your whole life. >> Exactly. Yeah.

50:44

So you keep the doubling going which I think puts us back.

50:50

[laughter] >> Uh I I I think it puts us at like 2035.

50:53

It's about a decade until you get to like the task horizon is a lifetime is like the average life expectancy of a human.

50:59

>> Pull up this article from the Wall Street Journal. >> Okay. What are we looking at? Which one?

51:05

>> Uh anthropic orafarm the journal this week they this is one of the most insane headlines.

51:10

It's the weak anthropic tanked the market and pulled ahead of its rivals once a distant second or third in the AI race.

51:16

The company is moving to the front >> with a focus on caution coding and business clients.

51:23

>> Well, they didn't fully or farm because the journal sort of takes a shot here says anthropic once appeared as an also ran in the chaotic race for AI supremacy.

51:32

This week, the sophistication of the startup's products upended the stock market.

51:36

A simple set of industry specific add-ons to its clawed product, including one that performed legal services triggered a dayslong global stock selloff from software to legal services, financial data, and real estate.

51:49

Then, Anthropic unveiled Super Bowl ads that taunt arrival Open AI.

51:55

Last th on Thursday, Anthropic unleashed its most advanced model yet capable of synthesizing data and analysis, running teams of coding assistants and functions akin to product management.

52:05

Shares of software companies including Salesforce into it and others fell again Thursday, although less precipitously than earlier in the week.

52:16

in the week. The viral moment for anthropics models is quote the most important thing happening in AI since chatbt's launch said Dean Ball a senior fellow at the foundation for American innovation who I know Ball >> you know him >> everyone knows Ball on this show uh who

52:34

writes an artificial intelligence newsletter quote it's infinitely interesting industry prognosticators and AI evangelists have spent months foretelling the toll anthropic and others and other sophisticated AI tools tools would take on software as a service companies that were darlings of the previous internet era. Tools made by

52:50

Tools made by companies such as workday, monday.

52:52

com, and Adobe have become the digital backbone for American corporations.

52:58

Anthropics tools, however, which include agents that car can act autonomously to carry out increasingly complex user requests for hours, have per have offered a preview of the threat sophisticated AI models pose to entire companies.

53:13

It's a good it's a good article.

53:16

I mean, obviously, we'll we'll see how fast the diffusion happens.

53:18

Some of these systems have uh have things that you cannot simply vibe code.

53:21

We'll talk to Max Levchin about is it possible to vibe code a financial software product, >> a global payments, >> global payments network.

53:30

Can you vibe code a bank charter or money transfer license?

53:34

Um and and I think I think more and more companies will will emerge and there might be a divergence between companies that have moes that are you know that are um resistant to software based disruption but then maybe they should trade at a different multiple.

53:49

So there's sort of a re-evaluation of the market broadly. >> Yeah.

53:52

You also can with the payment stuff.

53:54

I'm again I'm super excited for for us to talk with Max especially on this week when PayPal is obviously in the news.

54:01

Uh but you can imagine a world where it does become possible to technically vibe code a global payments network. >> Yeah.

54:09

>> But various regulators just say like hey we're not like we're going to start having requirements.

54:13

You need to be at least have a 100 people on your team right things like that. >> That's interesting.

54:18

You know, basically if you're getting inundated with a bunch of requests of somebody that's like, "Hey, >> yeah, >> I started this company a week ago and now I want to be able to process payments state by state, globally, etc."

54:31

People are just going to be like, "Hey, this is probably not responsible." >> Yeah.

54:34

I tell you about Gusto, the unified platform for payroll benefits and HR built to evolve with modern small and mediumsiz businesses.

54:39

I want to vibe code a payments platform where when it's when it's uh when it's payday uh a humanoid robot comes around and just does a money spread in your face and just says here's your cash. That's the future.

54:52

You don't need to none of this money transmitted a license.

54:54

None of these none of these recordings >> money spread. >> Yeah.

54:57

Oh, Tyler's got the money spread. >> Money spread.

55:00

>> You're actually quite amateurish at your money spreads.

55:02

From what I've seen on Instagram, you could there are levels and you are on level one.

55:05

[laughter] >> Uh you need to learn all the different ones.

55:10

the money counter spread. That's not bad.

55:12

That's not bad >> for anyone watching.

55:14

>> But I want to see it I want to see it go all the way down your arm in an S. Okay.

55:18

>> Do not break >> exposed.

55:21

>> Exposed first time money spread >> future would be mocking you.

55:24

>> Rookie money spread rookie.

55:24

[laughter] >> Claims claims to claims to love.

55:28

Claims to know all about dirty soda. Never been to Utah. >> Never been to Utah.

55:34

>> Claims to be able to money spread. Can't do a money spread.

55:36

>> Can't do a money spread. Bro, wait.

55:36

Do you do you have like 20 bucks on you? I >> actually do. >> Oh, he got you.

55:45

>> You're supposed to say that's what I thought.

55:47

>> That's what I thought. That's what I thought.

55:49

[laughter] >> He can't even hold his mic now.

55:52

>> He can't hold the mic button.

55:52

[laughter] >> Turbo puffer serverless vector and full tech search built from first principles and object storage.

55:58

Fast 10x cheaper and extremely scalable.

56:00

Uh take him in a funny take.

56:02

He said, "Y'all are clowns." Clowns.

56:04

The anthropic legal plugin uses software. It doesn't replace it.

56:07

In fact, the co-work legal plug-in uses Microsoft 365, Jira, Slack, and Box software to accomplish its tasks.

56:14

No one in Anthropic has replicated any of these applications with [laughter] with with ones coded by the company's cloud code agent.

56:24

What is this X that you can put up there? >> New feature. >> Just exit out. >> New feature. >> Yeah. Yes. Yes.

56:29

There are there are plenty of situations where where the token cost of regenerating the software is much lower than just using the software.

56:36

And so people will will use the software.

56:38

Uh Jim Kramer said, "Annthropics power is so daunting that all they have to do is say they are going into cyber security and that's the end of the group.

56:45

I don't want to be against them, but they are not the all powerful firm that they think they are."

56:51

Well, we'll talk to Doug Olaflin about exactly how powerful Anthropic is and whether he has whether he has vibecoded uh everything in his life or if he is still using an operating system at this point. Who knows?

57:02

Um let me tell you about Shopify.

57:04

Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents.

57:13

>> Uh Joe Weisenthal shared yesterday, Silver down 19%.

57:15

Anthropic must have launched a silver extension.

57:20

>> Yes, it's just chaos in the markets.

57:22

It's just absolute chaos everywhere.

57:24

>> One of the one of the most chaotic weeks of my uh my adult life. >> Yeah.

57:30

But it's been uh I mean lots of green shoots, lots of interesting projects, lots of interesting applications and progress all over the place.

57:37

Uh Derek Thompson said, "For me, the odds that AI is a bubble declined significantly in the last 3 weeks and the odds that we are actually quite underbuilt for the necessary levels of inference usage went up significantly in that period. Basically, his AGI pill.

57:53

>> I think AI is going to become the home screen of a ludicrously high percentage of white collar workers in the next two years.

57:59

and parallel agents will be deployed in the battlefield of knowledge work at downright Soviet levels.

58:03

And Kevin Roose over at the New York Times, host of the Hardfork podcast, uh says, "This is why everyone was freaking out about clawed code over winter break.

58:15

Once you see an agent autonomously doing stuff for you, it's so instantly clear that all computer-based work will be done this way.

58:22

This is why my serious AI policy proposal is to sit every member of Congress down in a room with laptops for 30 minutes and have them all build websites. >> Yeah. Get a podcast.

58:32

>> We were So, we were joking about this yesterday with Scholto like we maybe need more long long weekends for AI adoption, but I wouldn't be surprised for a big company to like actually do something like this, which is like, hey, >> we're going to have like a we're going to have the next Thursday, Friday off >> hackathon.

58:49

Yeah, basically >> congressional hackathon.

58:52

>> I mean, [laughter] Congress is a whole other thing.

58:55

>> You got to go to Congress, sit all the Cong all the Congress people down and get them get them vibe coding. What would they build?

59:01

I feel like they don't use a lot of software.

59:03

So, there's not that much to build.

59:05

Like, they're so abstracted away from it.

59:06

It's all lunches and phone calls and dinners and meetings.

59:12

Like, there's not that much that actually, this is the thing with like OpenClaw.

59:15

There's some people asking like, "What are you actually using it for?"

59:18

And people are realizing like uh a lot of my a lot of my day is not interacting.

59:24

>> You know the thing that I wish I could automate >> what >> my mail at home.

59:28

>> Okay, you can do that.

59:28

Have you seen Earth class mail?

59:31

There are a few of these virtual mail. >> It sends it. It sends it.

59:36

>> So basically you forget your home address.

59:38

You don't share it anywhere on the internet.

59:40

You never put it anywhere.

59:42

You only use this other address.

59:42

Mine was like 8:30 Market Street in San Francisco.

59:47

All of the all of the mail would go there if it's addressed to me.

59:51

It gets opened by a robot, scanned, and then you have a web dashboard, but also it just goes to your email and then you can actually say >> so they've been a pill for decades. >> Decades.

59:59

No, it was really important when you set up a business, you use a fake uh address or one of these virtual mailboxes and then you can actually click a button, send this to me physically.

1:00:09

If it's like a magazine or gift or something, you can say uh like keep this or you can say like shred it.

1:00:16

Um, and then you have a virtual uh, you know, representation of it forever and you could run an agent over it.

1:00:21

So maybe that's the next thing you pick up is a virtual mailbox. That would be good.

1:00:26

>> How does that work though?

1:00:26

There are certain situations where you need your ID to match like your utility bill. Yeah.

1:00:33

>> So you just still I guess you just use still use your home address for utilities but use >> or or passport.

1:00:39

Like there's usually other ways to to prove residency besides the bills.

1:00:45

Uh, also I don't know if you can actually get the utility bill to not go where the utilities are, but hopefully the utilities don't leak it.

1:00:53

I'm talking about like the broad like, you know, your your address gets on the internet and then it's just like spam and like credit card offers and stuff like that.

1:00:59

>> I'm just saying I never want to open up a physical piece of mail again.

1:01:01

I want it to come someplace, have an a AI agent like, you know, you get a >> uh you go on a toll road, just pays it automatically, right? Stuff like that.

1:01:13

Um, >> Optimus opens it for you, [laughter] takes a picture, >> does a money spread.

1:01:17

>> Does a money spread, walks to the walks to the post office, mails the next letter, mails the track. This is the future. >> Powered by MongoDB.

1:01:24

Choose a database built for flexibility and scale.

1:01:27

[screaming] Built with best-in-class embedding models and rerankers.

1:01:30

MongoDB has what you need to build what's next. >> It does.

1:01:33

Uh, Michelangelo drawing just sold for 27. 2 million.

1:01:36

Let's hit the gonk for that.

1:01:39

over 13 times its asking price.

1:01:42

>> We're bringing down the gong.

1:01:43

>> The Renaissance master earned a record some with this sketch of a foot.

1:01:46

>> Let's bring down the chapel.

1:01:48

>> Let's hit the gong for the Michelangelo painting and then >> give it a clean head.

1:02:02

>> Team is Let's give it up for the team for really dialing in the special effects.

1:02:06

>> Congrats to Michelangelo.

1:02:06

Overnight success, Angelo.

1:02:11

>> Uh, what do you think, Tyler? Overvalued, undervalued. 27. 2 million.

1:02:16

>> I think I'm going to have to go with Tyler Cowan.

1:02:17

I'm pretty sure on on Marginal Revolution.

1:02:19

I saw this earlier this week.

1:02:20

He said uh way overvalued. >> Way overvalued.

1:02:24

>> What was what was the uh what was the thesis?

1:02:29

>> I mean, it's not uh >> I'll give you the bare thesis. Look at the picture.

1:02:33

>> It's just like a Yeah, it's a foot. >> It's a foot.

1:02:35

It's not even like a painting. It's just like a sketch.

1:02:36

I think we know what's going on.

1:02:37

There's people that are into this stuff.

1:02:39

I'm not going to judge, but it's not me. >> Not for me.

1:02:44

>> Newly rediscovered Michelangelo drawing of a foot sold [laughter] for 27.

1:02:46

2 million at Christy's on Thursday.

1:02:49

A record for any work created by the Renaissance master in a sale likely to kick the art market into high gear.

1:02:58

Previously unknown red chalk sketch is one of only a handful of Michelangelo's surviving studies still in still left in private hands.

1:03:06

My my AI diffusion model could do this. That's the new phrase.

1:03:11

And I My kid couldn't do this, but my AI diffusion model certainly could.

1:03:13

This is not that impressive. Not a 27. Maybe at five. Give me a break.

1:03:18

The 5-in drawing depicts the right foot of the Libyan syil, a blonde prophetus from wearing a creamsicle gown painted onto the ceiling of the eastern end.

1:03:31

>> Let's get the feet off of the screen. >> Get out of here. >> Moving on. Back to business.

1:03:34

Catrini says in response to Opus 46, I have not shied away from buying scary dips.

1:03:43

Neither has Ben on our team.

1:03:43

Producer Ben always buys the dip.

1:03:45

Uh buying tech in 2022 is scary. >> Yes.

1:03:51

>> As it's it's really good that buy the dip is like so uh like people have really it's really the backbone because freak out and sell everything would really be bad for our capital market. >> Yes. Yes. Yes. >> Um >> okay.

1:04:04

So >> buying the buying tech in 2022 was scary as were banks after SVB.

1:04:07

I bought plenty of stocks when CO seemed like potentially the end of the world.

1:04:11

But this doesn't really seem like an overreaction in software.

1:04:13

If anything, it's delayed.

1:04:15

It's a rational response that isn't even trying to frontr run the capability improvement. The capability is here.

1:04:20

I respect anyone who is actually smart enough to know who survives and thrives.

1:04:24

I just don't think I can foresee that far ahead right now.

1:04:29

>> And Gary Basin has a devil's advocate.

1:04:29

I think the bottleneck will still be knowing the details of what to build, which depend on what your customers need, not even necessarily what they say they want.

1:04:39

I use these tools daily to close close to close to their full power and they're amazing, but the flashy demos are all examples of extremely precisely specified tasks in example-rich domains.

1:04:49

Build a compiler, build a web browser, etc.

1:04:51

These have very specific rules on what success entails.

1:04:56

And I've seen like the Gas Town, so one of the one of the big demo projects was like replatforming some open source software to Rust.

1:05:03

And it's like that's pretty verifiable from start to finish.

1:05:07

If you're looking at like build a new social network, it's like okay, how do you get distribution?

1:05:13

Distribution is still really really important.

1:05:14

Like you can vibe code stuff, but driving traffic is is harder than ever.

1:05:18

What are you thinking, Tyler?

1:05:19

>> Uh I I just need to um clear something.

1:05:21

So before I said teller count was talking about uh >> Michelangelo. >> Yeah, Michelangelo. That was incorrect.

1:05:25

He was actually talking about a Rembrandt. It was also a sketch. Okay. It was 20 million. >> 20 million. But that one Okay. Okay.

1:05:30

Thank you for the Thank you for the fact check.

1:05:32

Uh, really quickly, Reream one live stream 30 plus destinations.

1:05:35

If you want to multiream, go to reream. com.

1:05:42

Wall Street Logic right now, says Chris Camilillo.

1:05:43

Punish big tech for wasting capex on AI.

1:05:46

Punish SAS because AI will replace them and punish GPU manufacturers for selling the chips that power the waste.

1:05:52

[laughter] Sell everything. Sell your dollars.

1:05:55

Remember to lock up your capital and latestage private companies at the tops, says Bay16Z that I think has been deleted.

1:06:02

I can't see it, but I can see the screen. >> Really good pose.

1:06:03

So, >> anyway, the fear greed index is at five out of a hundred. Extreme fear. Extreme fear. >> Yeah. I mean, good timing.

1:06:11

Uh, >> freak out and sell everything. This is Lindy.

1:06:16

>> I mean, he posted this last night. >> Yeah. And then 4,000.

1:06:18

I think I I think this might have turned the tide.

1:06:21

This might have turned it. >> You did it.

1:06:24

>> Anyway, Cisco critical infrastructure for the AI era.

1:06:26

Unlock seamless and real-time experiences and new value with Cisco.

1:06:31

Toma Bravo managing partner Holden Spat says, "I just finished a week of board meetings with several of our portfolio companies and their strong results and growth and profitability seem to be in my view another piece of evidence against the overroought headlines that AI is eating software.

1:06:48

Anoplan bottom line koopa dayforce and jeep forflight are navigating the AI transition quite well with Q4 bookings growth of 22% on average and high margins. >> Let's go.

1:06:59

These are large companies operating at billion dollar revenue scale, not small startups.

1:07:02

And the growth numbers look to be accelerating, not decelerating.

1:07:05

That kind of growth doesn't square with the notion that enterprise customers are cutting software spend so they have more money for new AI applications.

1:07:13

We don't view our portfolios companies as being caught in an either or zero sum competition like that.

1:07:19

They're building and integrating AI functionality into their products and customers are voting with their dollars.

1:07:26

Systems of [laughter] just transitioning is >> the voice >> systems of record with powerful AI and Asian capabilities built to enterprise requirements and workflows >> have shown themselves to be quite capable of profitable growth and I believe the value of profitable growth will endure in the face of technological change. >> Let's go.

1:07:46

>> Let's go. um not biased at all but I think uh this is what we want to see right >> six months ago Google was considered disrupted now it's accelerating today SAS is considered disruptive now SAS is accelerating let's see certainly not time to take your foot off the gas if

1:08:05

you're building a SAS company you got to figure out how to survive how to thrive in the age of AI can't be asleep at the wheel you got to be building you got to be innovating you got to know your value you got to you want to know what really makes your company valuable. >> Tom Dale says, "I don't know why this

1:08:19

>> Tom Dale says, "I don't know why this week became the tipping point, but nearly every software engineer I've talked to is experiencing some degree of mental health crisis."

1:08:26

I saw another post uh in the same vein from somebody saying, "Well, at least we're getting it over with before everyone else, right?

1:08:35

>> Software engineers might be prepared for a new reality just because they're probably closer to the beginning of the wave."

1:08:43

>> Justine Moore has the other side of it.

1:08:45

She says, "I love how everyone is saying SAS is dead.

1:08:47

Like you're going to get the Fortune 500 to ditch Salesforce for a CRM vibe coded by a 13-year-old."

1:08:55

Um, and Matt Lavine says, "What's kind of funny is that people on this website have internalized, quote, you hire McKenzie for air cover and a throat to choke if things go down go wrong, but they haven't internalized, you hire Salesforce, Workday, and Atlassian for very similar, albeit not identical reasons."

1:09:13

And there's some disagreement.

1:09:16

Montag says that's not even remotely true.

1:09:17

And Matt Lavine says wrong.

1:09:17

This is the other Matt Lavine, by the way.

1:09:20

Uh, this is not the Bloomberg writer.

1:09:23

This is a software guy with some finance thrown in.

1:09:25

He's been at A6 andZ and JP Morgan.

1:09:27

Let me tell you about console. com.

1:09:29

Console builds AI agents that automates 70% of IT, HR, and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. >> That is right. Good.

1:09:38

Alexander says, "Just to be clear, people are shorting the economy of bits just as software eBay margins are about to run to 70% and rotating into the economy of Adams into mass unemployment."

1:09:50

>> Rotating into the economy of Adams into mass unemployment. I don't understand.

1:09:54

>> I'm saying like if you're buying Disney right now saying like, "Okay, they have the parks business, they have it, it's not as immune to AI disruption, but then if a bunch of people are unemployed, >> they're not going to go to Disneyland." Yeah. >> In theory. Well, we'll see.

1:10:06

Theoretically, theoretically, >> they might go more. Who knows?

1:10:08

The fact that crypto and silver are getting clobbered at the same time as SAS stocks makes me think that the AI disruption story is a little bit too pat of an explanation for what's going on.

1:10:18

There might be something else going on in the global economy. >> Yeah.

1:10:22

This is why giving anthropic full credit for the correction in the journal, >> it really amps up the the aura and the power. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

1:10:29

No, I mean it's great for >> and and and I and people are running the numbers on like okay so you know yeah the valuation of Anthropics probably doubled an extra 300 billion but we're seeing like a trillion dollar selloff.

1:10:40

It's like is that really the exchange rate that we're talking about here?

1:10:42

Uh we we will see uh Jensen is pushing back on the AI will kill all software just like he pushed back last year on the deepseek panic.

1:10:52

Let's play this video of Jensen.

1:10:54

>> What software is software is a tool.

1:11:00

There's this notion that the tool indust the software industry is in decline and will be replaced by AI.

1:11:08

You could tell because there's a whole bunch of software companies whose stock prices are under a lot of pressure >> because somehow AI is going to replace them.

1:11:16

It is the most illogical thing in the world and time will prove itself.

1:11:22

Let's just give it let's give ourselves the the ultimate thought experiment.

1:11:26

Suppose we are the ultimate AI.

1:11:30

Artificial general robotics.

1:11:30

The ultimate AI, the physical version of us.

1:11:37

>> You could of course solve any problem because you know you're humanoid. >> You could do things.

1:11:43

If you were a human or robot, would you use a use a screwdriver or invent a new screwdriver? >> I just use one. Mhm.

1:11:53

>> Would you use a hammer or invent a new hammer?

1:11:55

Would you use a chainsaw or invent a new chainsaw? It just don't. First of all, >> pill.

1:12:03

>> Ideally, they don't use it at all.

1:12:04

>> A lot of disagreement in the timeline.

1:12:05

>> But do you understand what I'm saying?

1:12:07

If you were a human or robot, artificial general robotics, would you use tools or reinvent tools?

1:12:16

The answer obviously is to use tools. >> Mhm.

1:12:19

And so now do the digital version of that.

1:12:24

>> If you were a artificial general intelligence, would you use the tools like Service Now and SAP and Cadence and Synopsis or would you reinvent a calculator?

1:12:36

Of course, you would just use a calculator. >> Okay, Tyler.

1:12:41

>> Okay, I like completely disagree.

1:12:41

So like if you're Yeah, if you're robot, you'll use the calculator, right? Right?

1:12:47

Like you'll just build the calculator if it costs you a lot of money to use the calculator. Yes.

1:12:52

>> So [clears throat] like I think like you know digital [laughter] >> that like agents will like use Salesforce, right?

1:12:57

But if Salesforce becomes like very expensive if it's it's already fairly expensive, it's at some point it becomes even cheaper to just build it themsel and then you run. >> Yeah.

1:13:06

Especially when they're like I can work the equivalent of 2,000 lifetimes today. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

1:13:14

Like obviously there's use for tools, right?

1:13:16

Like OpenAI doesn't uh or CHT like will write out Python script to to run some like big math problem, right?

1:13:24

>> It's not going to like use tokens to >> Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.

1:13:26

At some point if if a single prompt can say like build me a clone of this software and replplatform me and onboard all my customers and employees to this to the new vibe coded version of the software and maintain it for free.

1:13:39

Yeah, you have a problem.

1:13:39

But as long as the cost to re-implement the software and repplatform and transition over >> John John Palmer in the X chat and uh Deepo in the YouTube chat say uh would you watch TBPN or reinvent it?

1:13:57

[laughter] Would you invent a new podcast or listen to a podcast?

1:14:00

[gasps] >> Yeah, [laughter] Caner in the chat was talking about trains, the indomitable will of trains or the unstoppable force of trains.

1:14:07

I'm just being extremely bullish on trains. I don't know. Just trains.

1:14:11

It was just like a very very random train train anecdote. >> Yeah.

1:14:17

I just I just like that there there was a a hype train for trains in the chat.

1:14:21

>> Uh Schmosby says, "You met me at a rather illquid period of my life.

1:14:27

>> It's rough out there." >> Yeah.

1:14:28

I mean, going back going back to to Jensen, like >> it's in Jensen's interest for the econom for the markets not to collapse, >> even if he doesn't necessarily believe this.

1:14:40

Even if Tyler's take is right.

1:14:42

>> Yeah, it's all it's all a matter of timelines.

1:14:44

I think like the the models are expensive to actually go and reimplement something very very large and and replplatform when when the current thing is working.

1:14:53

>> Uh did you see this uh screenshot of uh of some mapping software [laughter] suggesting you could go straight or you could go in a loop?

1:15:04

>> This this this is a car guy software. >> It is. >> Yeah.

1:15:07

>> Who who's car guy software?

1:15:07

like this map is is probably made by somebody who just appreciates a nice drive.

1:15:13

>> This is actually Google Maps, but basically it's like you could go in a straight line or you could take a right and go in a massive loop and it's eight minutes slower and it's like, would you like to go the slower route?

1:15:21

But yeah, if you want to do a if you want to do a f a hot lap, like go for it.

1:15:24

I guess that's a good I guess it's a good take.

1:15:28

>> Uh we got to we got to actually pull out the post from Amtrak. Amtrak hired a poster. >> They do.

1:15:35

>> Oh, this is where the train >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> Okay. Yeah. Sorry.

1:15:39

>> Uh, this was pro, you know, one of the one of the posts of the week.

1:15:41

Amtrak says, "The unbridled greatness of trains will endure for a million years." >> Yes, that's Yes. Yes. Yes.

1:15:49

This is what he was quoting.

1:15:51

I thought it was so funny.

1:15:52

The unbridled greatness of trains will endure for a million years.

1:15:55

How many likes does that have? That's a banger. >> 4,000. >> 4,000. >> 54 54,000. That's great.

1:16:02

Uh, let's go over to the Guinness tally. Tyler has it. He counted it up. He He sat down.

1:16:08

He studied the Door Cash Patel Cheeky Pint crossover episode with Elon Musk.

1:16:13

And he counted three pints for Elon, four pints for John, and three quarters of a pint for Darw.

1:16:22

But there's a suspicious refill. >> Yeah.

1:16:26

So, I mean, it's a bit hard to to really tell because >> uh if you So, if you're tracking Doresh's, you know, volume, >> right, throughout the episode, it kind of goes down and he's at maybe like uh, you know, 80% full and then it goes back up.

1:16:39

>> That sounds like a refill, >> but it's like a direct.

1:16:40

So, so it's after a um there's like an ad read and then it goes back up.

1:16:46

>> So, the question is like during the you know, whatever happened during the ad read, right?

1:16:50

Did he just like slam it? >> True.

1:16:53

>> He filled back up all the way or is it just kind of a, you [laughter] know, partial fill?

1:16:56

>> I think you got to give him 1. 75. >> Okay.

1:16:59

Can we can we pull up the the screenshot? >> Yes.

1:17:03

>> Is this >> because the other the other debate the other debate was just around the actual size of the pints? >> Yes.

1:17:10

>> Is there some of them?

1:17:11

>> They look like full pine classes.

1:17:13

>> So So yeah, if they look >> like full size pine glasses.

1:17:16

>> Another another photo of of Elon holding the pint. >> Yes. Three down. >> You got to pull that. Pull that up, Tyler.

1:17:22

Put it in the production. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, no, no. It's here.

1:17:24

It's >> This is really important. Yeah. You see this?

1:17:26

And it's like, >> okay, that >> looks pretty small in his hand. >> Little small.

1:17:30

And then And then let's click over to Timothy Shalomé. Timothy Shalomé.

1:17:35

I mean, he's a smaller person, but it looks the same size to me.

1:17:39

I think these are fair pine glasses.

1:17:41

I think these are accurate.

1:17:42

I'm not I'm not seeing anything that's that's that's uh >> so Tim Salam is 510. Elon is 6'2. >> Okay.

1:17:51

>> So, slight height difference, but I mean I don't I feel like uh >> yeah, maybe >> is really mauling that. >> Maybe.

1:17:57

>> Yeah, I think I think they're just potentially wider.

1:18:00

>> I think they have >> and this is the kind of hard-hitting analysis that you could really only get on this show.

1:18:06

>> No other no other technology media is really breaking down.

1:18:10

>> I'm going pint analysis.

1:18:10

I'm going normalsized pints on this, but it is it is it is an interesting optical.

1:18:14

Yeah, this one looks incredible.

1:18:17

>> It's a little bit of an optical illusion. >> It's close. It's close.

1:18:21

I mean, either way, even if it's a half pint, John drank four.

1:18:26

So, that's two full pints.

1:18:28

If even if it's a half pint, you know, I I think I think I think these are full pint glasses. I'm going full pint. >> Okay.

1:18:37

You know who else is going full pint, John? >> Who? the founder of Crypto. com. Oh, yeah. Who just bought AI. com for 70 million. >> Let's go.

1:18:47

>> Uh big big big $7 million.

1:18:54

>> He is running an ad for AI. com. We don't know what AI.

1:18:58

com is yet, but I'm assuming you're going to be able to get some artificial intelligence there, much like you get crypto. >> It's a response.

1:19:05

Haven't been people saying if you're in crypto, pivot to AI.

1:19:09

took it literally, right?

1:19:10

>> Uh, I'll read through this.

1:19:10

Uh, Chris, founder says, "Plans to launch a new site with a Super Bowl ad this weekend.

1:19:17

The founder of trading site crypto.

1:19:17

com just bought AI for 70 million."

1:19:19

He actually bought it last uh last year in April.

1:19:24

Highest price ever disclosed for a domain sale to launch a new entrant into the AI race.

1:19:30

>> Uh there the site will offer a personal AI agent that consumers can use to send messages, use apps, and trade stocks. Mhm.

1:19:39

>> It's very very American.

1:19:41

>> Uh send message, send memes, order Door Dash, and trade stocks with you're a new AI agent.

1:19:46

Last year, an opportunity came up for me to acquire this domain.

1:19:48

And I thought if you take a long-term view, 10 to 20 years, that AI is going to be one of the greatest technological waves of our lifetime >> and so it would be a good investment.

1:19:58

>> Uh Mars did not comment on the purchase price, which was confirmed by the deals broker, Larry Fischer of getyoudommain. com. Huge win for Larry.

1:20:09

>> Larry, shout out to domainers. >> With assets like AI. com.

1:20:11

There are no substitutes, said Fischer.

1:20:13

When one becomes available, the opportunity may never present itself again. Of course, AI.

1:20:20

com pitched itself was pitching itself aggressively to all of the different labs.

1:20:23

Everyone was like, >> you know, we Anthropic's like, well, we may not have anthropic on X, but we do have anthropic. com. We do have quad. com. >> Who owns AI. ai?

1:20:36

That's a good domain because Claude owns or Anthropic owns claude.

1:20:40

com, but they also own claude.

1:20:42

ai and they reroute claude. com toclude.

1:20:44

ai, which is normally the opposite of the flow that you'd go. You'd start with the.

1:20:50

ai or the other TL and then you would as soon as you get the com you, you would reroute everything to do.

1:20:56

Anthropic so AIP that they're using theai as their main domain. They're >> rerouting. Maybe they're guilt.

1:21:01

Oh yes, >> maybe they maybe they just like supporting Anguila. >> Uh Tyler is using AI.

1:21:09

com to launch a personal AI agent. Is it uh your Gen Z? Is this Chooi?

1:21:18

>> Wait, what is Chooi again? I don't know.

1:21:20

>> Chooi is like Gen Z slang.

1:21:21

>> I think it's like millennial slang. >> Really? >> I don't know.

1:21:25

>> It feels a little Chubai to me. I'll I'll I'll say that.

1:21:27

I know enough about that.

1:21:29

It feels like like Chubai. It's Chopped. It's Dubai.

1:21:32

Dubai would want like the name of the thing and but it's chopped.

1:21:38

>> Chooi is a slang term often used by Gen Z to describe someone or something that is uncool, outdated, or trying too hard to be trendy. >> Yeah.

1:21:46

>> Typically referring to millenn millennial trends from the 2010s.

1:21:50

>> So, it's a dig at millennials from the perspective of zoomers. Makes sense.

1:21:54

>> It describes a post-basic aesthetic that is slightly cringeworthy, such as live, laugh, love signs, skinny jeans, >> or side parts. >> Okay. Interesting.

1:22:03

Vanta, automate compliance and security.

1:22:06

Vanta is the leading AI trust management platform.

1:22:10

Let's go over the mansion section.

1:22:11

There's some good stuff today. >> Hit me.

1:22:13

>> We got a bunch of stuff.

1:22:13

So, Miami's Coconut Grove.

1:22:15

They're calling it Billionaire's Grove.

1:22:18

The ultra wealthy buyers have discovered Miami's once sleepy Coconut Grove neighborhood.

1:22:25

>> Cam in the X chat says, "Chooi is being carried by millennials." >> Okay, interesting. Thank you, Cam.

1:22:30

>> Van says, "What an unc term."

1:22:30

What an [laughter] once known as a bohemian enclave, Miami's leafy coconut grove neighborhood is quickly transforming into a billionaire's playground thanks to a string of mega sales in the area.

1:22:43

Unlike hot spots like Miami Beach and Indian Creek, the Grove with its massive banyan trees, winding streets, and small gated communities was little known to people outside of Miami until recently.

1:22:54

Most people hadn't heard of it unless they were local, said real estate agent Danny Herzburg.

1:23:00

Now, the secret is out in a big way, and it's on the cover of the Wall Street Journal Manson section.

1:23:06

Since late December, Google co-founder Larry Page has spent eight $188.

1:23:08

4 million on three properties in Coconut Grove.

1:23:14

Well, businessman Horge Jorge Moss, a co-owner of professional soccer team Inter Miami.

1:23:21

>> Okay, but what did he actually do?

1:23:23

>> Yeah, that's a good question. Look him up.

1:23:25

He just says he's b introduc Just getting introduced as a businessman is incredible. Well, that's a life.

1:23:31

>> Jorge Moss, president of Real Zeragoza. >> Okay.

1:23:35

Is he really just a soccer guy, I think? >> No.

1:23:37

American billionaire businessman and chairman and largest shareholder of Masttec, a Miami based construction and engineering, founded by his father. Let's go. There we go.

1:23:45

Uh, so he spent 100 million.

1:23:47

Uh, both of those properties are within a few miles of a waterfront estate billionaire Ken Griffin purchased in 2022 for 106 million, a Miami record.

1:23:58

Locals are now competing with out of town buyers for homes, real estate agents said.

1:24:02

And housing prices in Coconut Grove, especially for waterfront property, have surged.

1:24:07

The median single family home sale price in Coconut Grove was 2.

1:24:10

3 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, more than doubling from under a million dollars, 995,000 uh in 2019.

1:24:20

So more than double in just six years.

1:24:23

Uh a $10 million home is now a $50 million home. Wow. Live, work, play.

1:24:30

Coconut Grove was a hub for nightlife, galleries, and artists in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s.

1:24:33

But its retail and cultural scene faded.

1:24:37

The housing market became kind of sleepy.

1:24:39

Then about a decade ago, the neighborhood's reinvention began with the redevelopment of the Cocoa Walk, open air mall, and construction of luxury condos was introduced.

1:24:51

$20 million poundous to the Grove for the first time.

1:24:54

When COVID struck, an influx of families relocating from out of town were drawn to the area, which is walkable with high-end restaurants and retail, but little tourist activity.

1:25:04

Part of the Grove's appeal is its proximity to downtown Miami and the Bickl neighborhood, where Griffin is building a new headquarters for Citadel.

1:25:11

The Grove also has prestigious schools like Ransom Everglades School and Carlton School of the Sacred Heart.

1:25:18

Although the Grove isn't gated, uh there are a small number of gated communities within the neighborhood such as Ye Little Little Wood, the Moorings, and Camp Biscane.

1:25:29

They're subtle, hidden, lush.

1:25:29

You don't know they're there. That's a big appeal. The condo boom.

1:25:34

New condo buildings have been at the epicenter of Coconut Grove's market resurgence.

1:25:39

A decade ago, large new luxury units were relatively unknown in the area, said a developer.

1:25:43

Um, uh, people thought I was crazy, Martin said. But his gamble paid off.

1:25:48

Martin sold his own penthouse in the building for 17. 8 million in 2023.

1:25:53

Now CMC Group and Fort Partners are developing a Four Seasons branded condo in Coconut Grove.

1:26:02

Prices raised from 5 million to 16 million, excluding pen houses, which are expected to sell for $120 million combined.

1:26:08

Although that is far more expensive than any other condo sold in Coconut Grove to date.

1:26:13

We think it's achievable, said Columbbo.

1:26:15

A great name for a Miami real estate person.

1:26:17

Uh the buyers looking for that before they would only consider Miami Beach.

1:26:23

Now those buyers have Coconut Grove on the radar.

1:26:26

And there's bigger homes, too.

1:26:28

The average lot size in Coconut Grove is under an acre, which is smaller than lots and other luxury enclaves.

1:26:32

That used to deter buyers who wanted more land.

1:26:36

But since 2020, developers and end users alike have been expanding existing properties.

1:26:41

People are starting to knock on the door of the neighbor next door and put together big uh bigger assemblages.

1:26:48

For example, Paige bought a $11 million waterfront property owned by the late restaurant tour Jonathan Lewis, then acquired an ab budding property for 15 million.

1:26:58

Paige also push purchased a nearby property for 71.

1:27:01

9 million from Aerys Sloan Lindamman.

1:27:06

A few waterfront homes in Coconut Grove are highly sought after, agent said.

1:27:08

Uh, he recently sold a $16.

1:27:11

5 million Bayfront estate owned by Susie Welch, the widow of former General Electric co-chairman and CEO Jack Welch.

1:27:18

Wow, >> I'm sick of Miami.

1:27:21

Can we go to the mountains? What else we got?

1:27:24

>> Let's go to the mountains.

1:27:24

What's the next uh what's the next story here?

1:27:27

Well, >> that is actually my general experience with Miami. It's amazing for a week. >> Yeah.

1:27:34

>> Then I'm ready to mix it up.

1:27:35

>> Well, we could go to Manhattan or we could go to Beverly Hills.

1:27:38

What do you have in mind?

1:27:40

Neither are particularly mountainous, but I guess the hills are more mountainous.

1:27:43

So, there's a California villa here built for James Kagny.

1:27:47

Uh, do you know the famed Hollywood film star James Kagny?

1:27:53

>> Never heard of him, John. >> Wow.

1:27:54

What were you doing in the 1930s and the 1940s when he was making gangster films such as Angels with Dirty Faces? Good movie. >> Crazy name.

1:28:03

>> Uh, he built the Stone Villa around 1939. Property record.

1:28:06

You don't know how to name movies like that.

1:28:10

>> Angels with dirty faces coming to your a theater near you. Buy your tickets today. A year later. Uh so he died in 1986.

1:28:17

A year later his widow Francis Kagny sold the property to the current owner Steven Dunn, founder of the bra of the baby product supplier Munchkin. Munchkin.

1:28:28

Uh Dunn didn't respond to comment.

1:28:30

Kagny lived in Beverly Hills while filming but otherwise spent his time at at his farms in upstate New York in Martha's Vineyard.

1:28:36

Actor Robert Wagner, a friend of Kagnes, wrote in a in a 2014 Vanity Fair piece, "The California uh house was unpretentious, but had a studio with a wooden floor and a record player where Kagny practiced dancing."

1:28:51

Wagner wrote, "After purchasing the Beverly Hills estate, Dunn expanded the villa to approximately 6,000 square feet with three bedrooms, uh," said a listing agent.

1:29:00

In the 1990s, Dunn purchased an adjacent parcel, combining the properties into a compound spanning five acres.

1:29:06

In addition to the main house, the property has a pool and a roughly 2500 foot guest house.

1:29:11

Over the years, Dunn has added guests.

1:29:14

I don't think it has a moat, but does it have a lot of stone?

1:29:18

Uh, >> I know the stone was was, you know, signaling maybe maybe there's an alligator moat. So, 38.

1:29:24

5 million, six bedrooms, multiple houses, tennis pool, and your favorite, pickle ball, >> a tennis pool, >> tennis, tennis court, and a pool. >> Okay.

1:29:37

>> It has a pool cabana with an outdoor kitchen.

1:29:38

It's landscaped extensively.

1:29:41

Uh, it has uh pickle ball courts. What do you think? 38.

1:29:44

5 million for a sixbedroom. >> I like it. >> You like it? It's high at 38. 5.

1:29:52

>> It looks like it would withstand a wildfire. Yeah, that's true. That's true.

1:29:55

The luxury market in Los Angeles is picking up after battling major headwinds, including a mansion tax and geopolitical uncertainty.

1:30:02

>> World in the in the chat says cop the estate boys new Ultradome.

1:30:07

>> We might have to John while we were live our latest Ultradome.

1:30:09

Uh they're that that we had an offer in on.

1:30:12

They're out for [laughter] We've had like We've had truly If anybody has just a big building in the center of LA, we want to give you money for it. [laughter] Let us do it.

1:30:25

We've had such a fascinating time trying to get the entertainment industry in LA has collapsed. It's a ghost town. It's a modern Detroit.

1:30:34

And yet >> and yet we cannot find a building.

1:30:40

>> I don't know why people like me.

1:30:40

I keep talking trash about them in [laughter] this town. You got to glaze.

1:30:44

You got to triple glaze them. It's the best. It's the best town.

1:30:47

We just want to build it even better. >> Yeah.

1:30:49

We're All we're trying to do is bring media back to Hollywood.

1:30:54

[laughter] >> It's not degrading at all.

1:30:54

And you say it like that.

1:30:56

Maybe we should move to Milan.

1:30:58

It's the gold medal housing market.

1:31:00

They're saying the city co-hosting the Winter Olympics is a fashion hub with Europe's hottest luxury residential market.

1:31:06

when the world's winter sports elite gatherers this elite gathers this week for the opening ceremony of the Milan Cortina Winter Olympics.

1:31:15

They're starting this week.

1:31:17

>> Have you been to that arch?

1:31:18

>> No, I've never been to Milan. >> Very nice.

1:31:21

>> I've never been to Milan.

1:31:21

It's a fashion and design hub that has long been the country's main economic center.

1:31:25

Uh it is increasingly becoming a tourist destination and and in 2017, Italy introduced tax laws favorable to new residents which led >> What about data center?

1:31:35

>> What about data center? [laughter] Yes, let's convert >> a data center with that original arch aesthetic >> for sure >> would >> yes >> would really >> would really be uh would put it would fix it would fix me it fix Tyler I mean imagine it we don't know how to make data centers that look like this everyone's talking about

1:31:56

>> Sankar Sham Sar >> everyone's talking about putting them in space why can't we convert some of these >> we're not just putting them in Milan we're putting them in the most expensive neighborhood in Milan that's Brea Brea is a small exclusive neighborhood just west of the city's premier shopping district uh around Via Monte Napoleon. Uh residential real estate in Brea,

1:32:15

Uh residential real estate in Brea, where most homes are apartments, is currently the city's most expensive.

1:32:22

Brea's high-end sector had an average sale price of $1,868 per square foot.

1:32:27

What would it cost to put Colossus there?

1:32:30

How many square feet is Colossus?

1:32:33

I want to know how many [laughter] because we got to we got to go apartment by apartment racking NVL72s [snorts] in Milan in the Barrera neighborhood specifically.

1:32:43

Uh a renovated duplex sold for just over $28 million.

1:32:46

The most ever paid for a Milan apartment.

1:32:48

Uh the adjacent Quatilera dela Modaf or fashion district home to brands like Gucci and Cartier was once the city's most expensive but Breera has suddenly surpassed it. It's more livable.

1:33:01

Well, for now until we put these data centers in there.

1:33:06

Uh you can walk to the shops, but you're not living in a shop.

1:33:08

People want pen houses with views and the there's a couple other things in Brera. I don't know.

1:33:17

Maybe that's the location of the next Ultra Dome.

1:33:21

Uh let me tell you about Apploving.

1:33:23

Profitable advertising made easy with Axon. ai.

1:33:24

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1:33:29

Tyler, what's it going to cost me to put a colossusized data center in the Breera district in Milan?

1:33:37

The neighborhood in Milan that costs $1,800 per square foot. >> Okay.

1:33:42

So, apparently, Colossus one is only 7785,000 square feet. >> Okay.

1:33:47

>> Uh so, it's only going to be like 1. 4 1. 5 billion >> billion. >> Yeah. >> Doable. >> So, do it at all. >> Easy.

1:33:53

>> I mean, putting a you know, a to build a gigawatt of of a data center is like 50 billion, right? >> Yeah.

1:33:58

That's like in that range.

1:33:58

So, I mean, this is like >> Yeah, >> kind of a no-brainer. >> It's a no-brainer. >> It's a no-brainer.

1:34:04

As is interviewing Doug Olaflin after earnings when he's suffering from Claude Code psychosis.

1:34:12

[music] Welcome to the stream, Doug. How are you doing? >> I'm doing wonderful. How you guys doing? >> Great to see you.

1:34:19

>> Can we pull up that the video that you that John painstakingly made this morning that completely that completely flopped?

1:34:26

I'm I'm very excited to have you on the show.

1:34:27

It feels like uh that scene in Sonic the Hedgehog 3 which I saw where Sonic and Shadow team up and join forces uh to talk about Capex and agentic coding.

1:34:37

Uh what what's new in your world?

1:34:40

Is is Claude Code still the top of mind or are you still uh churning through the capex numbers from earnings?

1:34:47

>> Are you somewhat of an agent for Claude now?

1:34:49

Like you work for Claude? >> I I do actually.

1:34:51

I think I mostly just uh move my information back and forth, you know.

1:34:57

>> I have um I have pretty much like I think of it as like my manager, you know, like it tells me what to do and then I go bring the information and I bring to my co-workers. I bring it back.

1:35:07

Um all day I'm just on cloud code.

1:35:11

>> How many how many prompts are you running right now?

1:35:14

>> Do you have any threads going? Okay.

1:35:17

So, [laughter] >> um I I have I have seven I have seven threads.

1:35:24

>> Seven that are running right now or or not running for your input.

1:35:28

>> I'm waiting waiting waiting for my input.

1:35:30

>> We'll let you get back to it.

1:35:31

>> Why don't you just have an eighth that just may >> Let's talk about Yeah. orchestration.

1:35:35

Have you played with Gas Town?

1:35:35

Are you thinking about abstracting yourself to a higher level? >> Okay.

1:35:41

So, Gast Town is um it's pretty intense.

1:35:45

I don't think Gaston's going to work out.

1:35:46

I think it's going to be agent swarms. >> Okay. Okay.

1:35:48

Explain the difference between between Gas Town and Agent Swarms. >> Okay.

1:35:53

So, Gast Town is um probably of the most forwardlooking thing I've read in a lot law.

1:35:59

He talks about how he like created this like self-healing tool process to essentially to like pass all these beads across and have like all these workers and like ways to self-repair um the agent workflow process.

1:36:11

And I read it and I was like, dude, this is brilliant. and also crazy.

1:36:16

Uh it's it's like it feels like the ravings of a madman.

1:36:18

And then I proceeded well I was also in my madman era.

1:36:23

Uh like before before the New Year's when you had 2x times usage I pretty much was like literally railing cloud code constantly.

1:36:30

I think I had I think I had four 14 hour days. >> Wow.

1:36:35

>> Um yeah it was it was beautiful. >> It was beautiful. Okay.

1:36:37

So talk to us about what you're actually building because you know we're we're talking about SAS apocalypse.

1:36:43

It feels like there's a debate over build rebuild all your tools from scratch to save whatever your SAS fees are.

1:36:49

Uh >> yeah, even yesterday was notable OpenAI comes out with Frontier. Yeah.

1:36:53

comes out with Frontier. Yeah. which is you look at like that you got to look at this like graphic which feels like it was made for you know a Fortune 500 CEO to kind of or management team to kind of understand it and it's like >> here's more SAS to replace your other

1:37:09

SAS right it's like you know you got the system of record down here you have a bunch of agents in between and then you've got different applications that you're using and meanwhile anthropics just like we're making a really smart digital guy that can do whatever you want. >> Yeah. So I think the two there's like >> Yeah.

1:37:23

So I think the two there's like two really interesting ways.

1:37:26

I think OpenAI is like the Fortune 500 selling it from the top if that makes sense and then uh Anthropic is like here's my here's your cloud code agent sell 20,000 of them.

1:37:38

Did you see the the Asenture partnership?

1:37:40

I think that's really interesting.

1:37:41

So like if you're if you go back uh >> there's they're doing 30,000 people at Aenture. What do you mean?

1:37:48

>> To like 30 30,000 people at a centure are going to learn how to cla code.

1:37:53

>> Oh, and then and then be deployed into different companies. >> Yeah. >> Who knows? Who knows?

1:38:01

>> What else would they do?

1:38:02

>> Maybe they just replace the centure.

1:38:04

>> I mean, that's that's what they're going to be doing, I think. >> Okay. Wait. So, yeah. So, what do you mean?

1:38:09

If if Accenture folks are using cloud code, wouldn't they be using it on consulting projects internally to companies?

1:38:16

I I I think they're going to be using it internally >> uh as no so they're going to be using internally and then they're going to be doing all these consulting things because if you think about it one of the issues is like >> you know when you had SAS one of the biggest issues of like changing from one CRM to another was effectively being like hey everyone you're have to quit your jobs for like 10 months to figure this out.

1:38:37

Um the impl the implementation like you'd have tons and tons of like consultants to do that and I think that that's what uh the entire partnership is.

1:38:45

So essentially like people are going to be implementing cloud code and there's 30,000 people at a centric who's going to do it.

1:38:51

And then on the other side you have Frontier which is like the Fortune 500 way of being like here's your plan come to us and we'll build this whole thing blah blah blah.

1:38:59

So yeah >> but is is is reimplementing your CRM really the lowest hanging fruit for America's greatest companies?

1:39:06

It can't possibly there must be new ideas, new problems to solve, new tools to build.

1:39:13

like why are we just going to shuffle the chips around the board instead of like doing something productive?

1:39:20

>> Okay, so I think the system of record refresh is going to be really awesome because um you know like the big I mean it honestly does feel kind of boomer if you think about it.

1:39:27

It's like the biggest data now.

1:39:28

Everyone can have the big data now.

1:39:30

Um, but I think the the automation that you've always dreamed of is actually going to happen and the system of record is just going to essentially have hooks out to all these other things they're going to build on top of it which is mostly like you know the frontier thing. Yeah.

1:39:43

>> And essentially like all the information work is just going to be like all on the agent and everything else is going to be like place where it lives and is stored for fsies.

1:39:51

So um >> instead of me having someone uh let let me use my personal stack as semi analysis we use HubSpot for example.

1:40:02

the salesto or whats >> how many more podcast should Dylan do this month if we want to hit our goal >> that's totally different we don't actually have like our our like you know the big yeah sure how many more podcasts like that right um I could just vibe code it would just be like hey can you run this analysis for me and in a perfect futuristic world it'll go into the CRM pull all the information of the all of our inbounds make it be like hey

1:40:33

uh the day after Dylan goes on a podcast there's like 25 people who who come in the conversion rate is X you could price it at this um Dylan quit your you know stop working and effectively just like hit the podcast you know like yeah exactly so so

1:40:49

>> you could do this with anything though like just information man like it's it's >> it's going to be pretty sick but I think um all the SAS companies are going to essentially just become hooks for all the crap they built on top of it. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Yeah.

1:41:01

Did you see Jensen uh yesterday was was kind of defending some companies like SAP and Service Now and saying, "Hey, if I was a if I was a really smart humanoid uh out doing work in the world and I needed a screwdriver, would I just invent a new screwdriver or would I just take one off the shelf?"

1:41:18

And so that was like his defense.

1:41:21

Tyler here was uh took took the other side of it and just said uh there's going to be a lot of situations where especially in a software only environment >> it's easier to just build a very specific workflow that you need that you would have gotten from a SAS provider versus you know you don't need to actually rebuild the entire platform. >> Yeah.

1:41:42

I think uh we're going to be building a lot of screwdrivers like things like the thing that's important is like >> okay you're not going to rent a truck, right?

1:41:50

Like like you're not going to build your own truck, but your own screwdriver 100%.

1:41:54

>> Like like you're doing this big ginormous job. You need a hammer.

1:41:55

You be like, "Okay, pull it out of my belt."

1:41:59

Okay, but you're not going to be like, "Uh, I'm about to move 700 tons of like here to here.

1:42:03

Uh I need to rent a truck."

1:42:06

You're not going to build the truck.

1:42:08

>> And so that's what I think the system records are going to look like.

1:42:10

records are going to look like. They're going to look like places where like actual data that cannot be like like cannot be vibived effectively like what's your inventory cannot have any hallucinations right like your ERP but all of that will just be hooks for everything else because like all the

1:42:26

information is just like pulling retrieving making the correlation running the the charts like fixing that all the time >> but then but then >> how do you square the fact that a system of record is way less sticky if you have agents that can work around the to switch you over to a different system of record. Like that still ends up putting

1:42:42

Like that still ends up putting massive pricing pressure.

1:42:46

>> So, so to be clear, I don't think it's good for everyone.

1:42:48

Like I think uh my my my favorite analogy of this is like there actually is a very old school type of software that's like existed for a long time.

1:42:57

Uh all the on mainframes, it's all it's all out there. Yeah.

1:43:01

Um and you know, like funny enough, mainframes still grew like 6% a year or whatever.

1:43:05

someone has the real number from like 2002 to to 2020. >> It's crazy.

1:43:10

>> So, like they're they're going to grow, but it's just going to be like a very different >> vision of the world that I don't think people are ready for. >> Yeah.

1:43:18

>> Um and and the adjustment period is the big problem because all the stocks are priced like they're not going to be mainframes.

1:43:23

And >> and and also just for context, mainframes are like, hey, there's one of each company now. >> Yeah.

1:43:30

>> There's not there's not like 10. >> Yep. >> There's one each.

1:43:33

So I think with all these all these whether you're a system of record or you're you know some vertical software you're going to need to show >> insane revenue growth in a a truly AI native product otherwise investors I think are going to continue to not be able to create a super compelling narrative why why you should own it during this period of uncertainty. >> Yeah.

1:43:56

Um, I mean, pretty much what happens, and we're going to go like investor brain, when anything goes X growth, uh, the multiple goes massively down. >> Yeah. Yeah, that makes sense. >> Eight times earnings.

1:44:06

Can you talk a little bit more about what you're actually coding, what you're building, like what the software is because it from the demos that I've seen that you've posted, it feels much more like you have an agent that can do knowledge retrieval, data transformation, build dashboards, charts, and and like knowledge work as opposed to truly replacing software tools at this point.

1:44:32

But do you have you built anything that's like longived and and runs like daily or is like something you keep revisiting because it's now a piece of software that does a job.

1:44:43

>> So the cloud code commits the cloud code commits is now software that lives and and runs every single day.

1:44:47

That's like a scraper, right?

1:44:49

And then like that that like lives in a database and that that will run forever.

1:44:52

There's like a lot of other tracking price data tool stuff like a lot of the scraping that we're like >> that is not like publicly available like we do like a lot of that like we had a data team just do that and now effectively we can like really accelerate that so everyone can do that. >> Sure.

1:45:09

Um there are other like little things that I think are like heruristics like little skills of like I have blind spots that I consistently make over and over and I'm like hey I know this blind spots an issue blah blah blah you should like consider this in this case.

1:45:23

>> Um I I don't think it's like the galaxy brain software and we're very far from there because if you actually play with these tools a lot context rot is real. >> Yeah.

1:45:32

So >> I is it is but is it how fast is it getting better because it feels like we're seeing the meter graph >> scary fast >> scary fast >> scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary scary so um I started vibe coding with uh claude 4 >> and it just wasn't u or sorry opus 4 on cloud code and it just could not oneshot websites in the way that 4. 5 and 4.

1:45:52

6 six can and if it just marginally improves from here, it feels like why would I pay for like any kind of UI UX if it's just going to be generated at a good enough quality? >> Yeah.

1:46:05

How did you process the new models this week? 46 53. What's the review?

1:46:14

>> If you don't if you can't immediately notice the difference between 45 and 46, start polishing your resume. You are cooked. [laughter] >> Yeah. Yeah.

1:46:22

You just got automated by an agent.

1:46:26

>> You got >> um I think 46 was a little disappointing if I'm honest with you. >> Mhm.

1:46:34

>> I I think it might have been Sonic 5.

1:46:37

>> Oh, that's what people are saying.

1:46:38

That's the conspiracy theory, right?

1:46:38

But what what does that mean?

1:46:42

>> Um the original Sonic 5 leaks were that it's like as good as Opus 4.

1:46:44

5 but with 1 million context window and specifically trained for agent swarms. >> Sure.

1:46:52

So wait, yeah, but practically does that just mean like same quality but faster, cheaper at least for a topic.

1:46:59

>> And then they and they make more money. >> Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Better margins.

1:47:02

How are the margins looking for the the labs right now?

1:47:03

There's been there was a bunch of like FUD around it, but it seems like from all the leaks it's been like 50 60 70%. Pretty good.

1:47:11

>> Yeah, if if you X all the free users, it's always really good, right?

1:47:13

But uh honestly, Anthropic has no free users or like on a relative basis.

1:47:18

So their margins are ironically like like kind of on a like to like basis kind of not as good as you think. >> Yeah.

1:47:26

Um can you uh break down a little bit more of the thesis of the claude code is an inflection point uh article what what what the key takeaway who you're speaking to um what update you wanted to share and then I want to go into some of the some of the push back and your response to that. >> Yeah sure.

1:47:45

Um, so first I think the thing that makes me really excited is the first time since Shain of Thought I feel like we have a new scaling that feels very very different and hardcore and I can actually see my entire life dayto-day change. >> Mhm.

1:48:03

>> Um, I think I can expect some version of a cloud code harness to be effectively all my information work from now till the future. >> Mhm. >> I am a daily user.

1:48:13

I was not a daily dailies before and I expect to continue to be one.

1:48:18

>> And that's kind of what happened with the the reasoning models.

1:48:19

It went from like you could ask it stuff but it might hallucinate to like the answers are good like you can pretty much rely and there's going to be citations and like it's going to be 99.

1:48:30

999 like% like usable for things.

1:48:32

So you just have a question, you get that maybe not great at certain things, but in general like it delivered on the initial like chat experience that I think a lot of people were looking for and then they became Yeah.

1:48:43

Um >> how much uh do you think Anthropic cares more about winning in consumer than they've let on to date?

1:48:55

>> Uh no, I don't think so. >> Mhm.

1:48:57

>> Everyone uh everyone who works there is exactly like like what you think it is.

1:49:03

Yeah, >> they're exactly who they say they are.

1:49:05

>> Yeah, they're software singularity build. >> Yeah.

1:49:09

And then I think co-work is what they're really excited about. >> Sure. Makes sense. >> Uh yeah. What what this push?

1:49:15

>> So they're not even they're not even >> they're not even thinking about a scenario where a bunch of people are using Claude in the work in a work setting and say, "Hey, this is pretty great and yeah, Chad has ads.

1:49:24

I'm happy to pay 20 bucks a month. I'll use it personally."

1:49:28

personally." Because I just think there's like an iPhone like I think the game to get to like three billion users is like over when you just look at the traction of like Gemini and chatbt and the fact that norm normal people aren't caring that much about the nuance maybe

1:49:43

that don't have that much to automate in their life but there's like an iPhone size market like the iPhone wasn't the first smartphone to launch and it's possible like when I see this like >> when I see this like the the Super Bowl ad the sort of like trust nuke I was calling it right just like, hey, like it's really funny. They're like, you

1:49:59

They're like, you know, uh uh rage baiting Open AI, but at the same time, they're just destroying like trust around ads and LLMs potentially like permanently, right?

1:50:08

Uh because people even when they start seeing ads that are more like display ads, they'll start thinking, well, like was the result influenced too?

1:50:15

You know, it just like it hurts the trust.

1:50:17

And so I think there I think my my theory is that any product that like really catches on in the workplace could very well trickle over into into life and Anthropic could someday have a pretty big, you know, they could have like a Netflix- size subscriber base for people that just want an adfree AI experience.

1:50:40

>> Yeah, that sounds completely right to me.

1:50:43

>> But you're saying, but your point is like it's just secondary to them.

1:50:45

and they're like it's a nice to have but like we don't that's not that's not our intention.

1:50:50

I >> I think okay so singularity pill but I also I think you have to pay for the singularity and I think it's going to be the enterprise that does it. >> Makes sense. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

1:50:58

I mean the other the other take on like you could wind up being like the Apple uh and like the premium you know privacy focused or you could wind up being like the duck duck go which was like you know Yeah.

1:51:07

It was a counter to Google but it never got to any meaningful scale. Right. >> Yeah.

1:51:13

But I still think I still think OpenAI is the Apple like like Apple was synonymous with smartphones when it really took off like like uh what is the other smartphone?

1:51:22

I can't >> maybe you could argue this is like a Blackberry. Yeah. I I can't name it. Yeah.

1:51:29

Um well like Blackberry, right?

1:51:29

Um >> it it was known for work. >> Yeah.

1:51:35

>> And then obviously like it swapped over.

1:51:37

So I still think OpenAI is like the cognitive reference and honestly uh 5. 3 cooks. >> Yeah.

1:51:41

Uh, faster or just better or both? >> Faster and better. >> Faster and better. Uh, okay. Talk about 5. 2 token efficiency.

1:51:49

Run was pushing back on the article saying you making you're making the assu assertion that 5.

1:51:56

2 token efficiency ruins long horizon planning and yet 5.

1:51:59

2 tops the meter chart for long horizon planning. Halfbaked.

1:52:05

What's the explanation there?

1:52:08

>> Didn't someone completely mock that argument?

1:52:10

Um, but he's kind of a he's like Sorry, I got to find the guy.

1:52:12

But it's like [clears throat] >> I don't know what task is being done here.

1:52:19

Like is are they the same hardness? >> Yes.

1:52:23

Did you just spam it to infinity and like you finish like a sufficiently long task to completion versus like um >> like okay let's just say we have two kids taking the SAT and one does a better job and finishes first and one does like almost as good of a job and took seven times this long and you're like wow that one's the smart kid. >> Yeah.

1:52:45

>> No, dude doesn't make any sense. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That makes sense. Yeah. Yeah.

1:52:48

An elegant solution delivered faster is uniformly better, you know. 100%. >> That makes sense. >> Yeah.

1:52:55

And so if you spam more tokens like and you win and you're like, "Oh, look, I mobbed them."

1:52:58

And it's like, "Dude, what if you just use less tokens?"

1:53:02

>> I think the benchmark is supposed to be for for they they have they have a reference class of of projects that are supposed to take x amount of time.

1:53:09

They would take a human developer six hours.

1:53:13

And then they have all the models uh compete.

1:53:15

And if you can compete the six-hour task, then you get put at the six hour mark.

1:53:19

It's not did you run for six hours.

1:53:22

It it it's so so so it could be like implement a a CRM product or you know write a very complicated you know database or something.

1:53:31

It would take you know a talented software developer six hours, two hours, one hour and they have different tasks and then you're trying to climb that hurdle. >> Oh yeah. And then it's okay.

1:53:40

It climbs higher and higher and higher.

1:53:42

higher and higher and higher. I think I think that's loosely it's because because obviously you could just say okay just reasoning count to 1 billion and just go as slow as and it works for days and that's not impressive the meter the yeah I mean it's okay so yeah you're right the the different the

1:53:58

scaling thing but like >> okay so one the other thing I was doing like now that we have vibe coding available to everyone you can just have it do the same task and do like ABC like I I've been doing like a lot of internal benchmarking like you could everyone could benchmark guys like um dude Codeex 5.2 took so long and just never

1:54:12

2 took so long and just never built for me.

1:54:16

>> And it's like all the codeex hype during like it just never worked for me, man.

1:54:20

Like it never it never oneshot projects like Opus 4. 5 did.

1:54:23

And I'm just like this feels like complete foot.

1:54:25

Um but that being said, >> Codex 5. 3 cooks.

1:54:29

Like I think I take everything back about >> about 5. 2 for 5. 3. >> Nice. Total reversal. Classic AI narrative.

1:54:38

Just day by day complete switching of the narrative.

1:54:40

switching of the narrative. uh talk about the npm downloads uh because you said that you're now scraping them every day trying to understand how many commits on GitHub are related to cloud code and and the push back from rune was that this counts npm downloads as authoritative when cla numbers are

1:54:57

hugely inflated because GitHub actions does automatic cloud code download every time continuous integration CI runs versus codeex compute cloud so maybe it's not apples to apples what's more nuance on the the the fast takeoff of cloud code because honestly when you said 20% of commits by the end of the year I was like that feels extremely low. I would expect like 70% and I would

1:55:19

I would expect like 70% and I would expect codeex to be at 30% and no more human commits because it's working.

1:55:25

>> So I um I wanted to make sure we had like a high standard like a high 95% plus.

1:55:31

Um I don't think like sure if it continues to grow on a week basis like yeah it's like you know 100% by June or something like that.

1:55:39

>> Well there's also the the fact that like you could be writing code and still just like almost be using cloud code as like your llinter or like your your interface to GitHub and if there's an abstraction layer there that people adopt, you're going to see the commits go through the roof even if there's still a human in the loop meaningful.

1:55:54

>> Look look look look I'm not going to pretend like the cloud code commits thing is like the cleanest way ever.

1:56:00

There's a lot of way there's a lot of ways to the data.

1:56:01

For example, um people who use who you could just say don't do this and and won't do it.

1:56:08

Number two, like private on a ratio is like five times bigger.

1:56:12

>> That matters way more.

1:56:12

Um, and then like I I also think that like the way you consume it, like this doesn't count for cursor.

1:56:19

People have been clearly using AI for like a long while and it doesn't show up.

1:56:24

It this is just the example I can like say like, hey, chart goes up really quickly. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's so cool. >> And it's not perfect.

1:56:30

I look >> I it's it's a data set that I could create in a relatively short amount of time. Yeah.

1:56:36

And I'm like, I don't know. Seems pretty cool. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, it is.

1:56:40

>> Should we talk about Amazon? >> Yeah. Yeah.

1:56:41

Let's move over to hyperscalers. Wait.

1:56:43

>> Reaction was the number two low. [laughter] >> Yeah.

1:56:48

We're not taking it seriously. Yeah. >> Billion was crazy. That was crazy to me. >> Okay. Why? >> Yeah.

1:56:53

That was really shocking.

1:56:55

>> Um, you know, we do a lot of data center tracking and we do a lot of accelerator tracking and uh we were too low. >> Okay.

1:57:02

>> Okay. Are they are they are they trying to play some sort of hype game where they're throwing out the biggest number and they're not actually even going to be able to buy enough equipment to spend it even if they are signaling to the

1:57:13

market we're going to be hearing like well we wanted to buy this many Nvidia chips but we couldn't get them or we have a delay at this data center because of regulation and so uh they're just trying to project strength because they're sort of behind on the AI narrative a little bit. They don't have

1:57:27

They don't have the big position that Microsoft does in open AI.

1:57:31

they don't have, you know, you know, a deep mind level team and so they're saying we're going to go biggest on the dollar front, but then maybe they don't deliver on it or do you think at the end of the year we'll be like, "Yeah, they spent 200 billion."

1:57:46

>> I think at the end of the year they're going to be like, "Yeah, they spent 200 billion. >> Let's go."

1:57:50

>> They they are the single biggest uh provider of power in the entire world.

1:57:53

I think >> like the incremental and the AWS like supply chain can ramp a lot quicker than anyone else.

1:58:00

And every every example >> that we track in the data center like the data center team, they are on time and can scale to like levels that are crazy. >> Yeah.

1:58:11

>> Like Reneer's ramp is just like out of this world fast compared to everyone else.

1:58:15

Every other gigawatt project is essentially delayed and they're going to be like ish on time. >> Wow.

1:58:20

So isn't that extremely just like good for Amazon?

1:58:22

Like they're properly positioned.

1:58:25

They're properly transitioning. Like they Yeah.

1:58:26

transitioning. Like they Yeah. like who knows what happens to the rest of but eventually this thing is just like part of the >> we were talking earlier like Jasse didn't exactly paint this like incredibly exciting vision and share like hey we you guys are actually underestimating demand still even if

1:58:44

you're bullish on AI you're underestimating demand and we're in a position >> to actually try to get a more accurate read here and that's why we're investing >> yeah and it's funny because they could have said one thing that would have made an ad all better and they'd be like, "Yeah, we see high 20s." And like the

1:58:59

And like the stock would have ripped, >> but they're like, "We continue to project to see this level of growth." >> Mhm.

1:59:07

What percentage what percentage of the 200 billion do you think will actually flow to Nvidia?

1:59:11

Because Nvidia is rallying today.

1:59:13

That's why we're wearing white suits, but it didn't rally immediately in after hours.

1:59:20

>> Um, I think a meaningful amount.

1:59:23

>> I I definitely cannot disclose what somebody analysis thinks. >> Yep.

1:59:26

But um I think they're going to run out of tranium be and and the answer is like what's the biggest amount of supply chain that's like locked up? It's it's it's Infidium.

1:59:38

>> Yeah, that makes a ton of sense.

1:59:39

>> Can you get uh Mcronone a free semi analysis plan [laughter] >> because he came out this week with his big new initiative 30 million euros for AI research.

1:59:50

France is going to be the home of of research.

1:59:54

>> How do you think all the hyperscalos will respond?

1:59:56

You you >> you know what's crazy is people have been trying to do a lot of work in France for a long time cuz they have this giant uh nuclear power plant. Yeah. It's kind of stranded. >> Weird.

2:00:07

>> And um no one uses it and like everyone wants to be like, "Dude, I can get a gigawatt here."

2:00:11

And then they like try to start building and they're just like, "Yeah, this is never going to happen.

2:00:18

I'm just going to go back to United States."

2:00:19

Even though United States is like all up, it's like I can I can start there.

2:00:21

And they're like, "No, no, no, no.

2:00:23

We'll start in like 5 years." Yeah.

2:00:25

>> And I can think of two specific projects >> that essentially did the same thing was like, "Oh my god, all this France data center power and then like they started like never mind." >> Yeah.

2:00:36

>> Uh why do you think Grock is climbing the charts right now? Any any insight?

2:00:42

It's like number three after get free cash and after chat GBT in the overall app store. >> The iOS app store.

2:00:49

>> I dude actually one um this tells you how locked in I've been with COD code. I had no idea.

2:00:55

>> Yeah, >> you're so locked in with Claude researching >> the AI race that you >> It's just interesting.

2:01:00

I mean, I I I you know, the the app store is based on like acceleration, but you know, the the the Grock hype cycle of like, you know, let's push all the Twitter users or the X users there.

2:01:11

Like that's sort of already happened.

2:01:12

Like I don't know how this is happening because there isn't much hype about the >> Yeah, it's happening off X. >> Yeah.

2:01:18

And a lot of people were like, "Yeah, like you can talk to Anie and Valentine, but like is that really popular?" Might be. I don't know. >> Singularity.

2:01:29

>> The real singular lonely people. >> Oh my god. >> Maybe.

2:01:33

>> Um >> I I did see a video of uh like the Stormlight Archive thing and that I feel like uh like hit a broader audience in terms of video generation and I think video generation like >> that always kind of wins. Yeah.

2:01:45

Um, we actually did an analysis while you need to be bullish on the Disney Open AAI deal. >> I think so.

2:01:54

>> We we've seen we've seen the Nano Banana bump with Gemini. >> Yep.

2:01:58

>> You and and this feels like it could be on an entirely different level. >> Yeah.

2:02:02

>> Well, you know, my favorite thing is um >> Gemini wasn't what actually like made it rip. It was a banana. >> Yeah.

2:02:10

>> Like the ratio uh like really improved in terms of OpenAI to Gemini.

2:02:13

in terms of OpenAI to Gemini. uh like way before and then like generally like slightly helped but I would say it's like 90% is banana banana no you can you yeah you can just share an image and it's immediately apparent what is going on as a unique capability that

2:02:29

you can't get anywhere else they've cornered the market specifically on like the image editing not just the diffusion but the like being able to take a photo change the background and have it actually look like your face or have the text look great like it was it was a unique unique product really beyond a model Yeah. >> Oh. Oh, this is by the way this is my >> Oh.

2:02:46

Oh, this is by the way this is my final steaming hot take in COD code.

2:02:48

Uh the reason why you should actually pay attention so much is because this is the first time like >> image models essentially always gain share, video models always gain share like Studio Giblly moment and then obviously chatbt.

2:03:01

This is the first like new moment. >> Yeah.

2:03:07

>> It's a a new modality being the agent and it's like actually kicking off. >> Yeah.

2:03:11

I mean, how important do you think the co-work like a desktop app mobile functionality is to that?

2:03:16

Because like the like you could have truly magic.

2:03:21

>> Chad has some insight.

2:03:21

A lot of people using Grock video to compete for a $1 million contest. >> Oh, that's right. Cont. Okay. Yeah. So, yeah.

2:03:29

So, it's free cash and then free money.

2:03:31

The top two apps in the top three give you cash.

2:03:34

Uh that is a good fact check. Thank you, Chad.

2:03:36

a good fact check. Thank you, Chad. Um but uh yeah my my question about like like can you have a Studio Giblly like moment if you have to open up a terminal just because there are so many normies that would just will never open the terminal no matter how magical the you know AI god is behind the terminal it's

2:03:54

just too much to go type one line of command >> that's why co-work and codeex are going to like probably be what actually happens I think it's really fun to like play around in the like whatever 1% % adopter and I'm really enjoying it but I just don't think >> like like yeah it's going to be co-orker Codex and Codeex is actually pretty good. Codex is I think a slightly more

2:04:15

Codex is I think a slightly more polished experience than Coworker. >> Yeah.

2:04:19

Uh last question for me take me on the journey of what's going on with Microsoft what you predicted the the how that's changed what how their strategy has changed like give me the the proper way to understand Microsoft these days.

2:04:33

>> Yeah Microsoft's not in the race bro. Why? They are.

2:04:39

>> They they I know, but they're getting owned.

2:04:41

>> They have all of the IP.

2:04:41

I I I don't I agree with you.

2:04:43

I don't understand why it's not like, oh, 5. 3 launches.

2:04:46

Microsoft's announcing it the same day and it's actually integrated and people are using it like on day one. It takes time.

2:04:52

>> Yeah, they it's a skill issue.

2:04:54

>> Yeah, >> it's clearly something's going on.

2:04:54

And and honestly, the thing that makes me most bearish that is the fact that Satia is like I'm not the CEO anymore.

2:05:00

I'm the I'm the product manager of co-pilot because I'm so boned if I don't get this figured out. >> Yeah.

2:05:09

>> Like you could argue it is the mo it is now existential.

2:05:11

He's decided like hey my CEO job is getting this one thing right otherwise we're screwed.

2:05:15

And that is um >> kind of worrying.

2:05:20

>> It does feel like they could potentially it feels like >> the pullback at the beginning of last year kind of the the the the quick pause is now looking silly in the context of Amazon coming in now and saying, "Yeah, everybody's on board now." >> Yeah, >> we'll see. >> Yeah. Yeah, we'll see.

2:05:38

I think um they have the most to lose. >> Mhm.

2:05:42

>> What about GPU utilization?

2:05:42

Brad Gersonner was hosting CNBC today, which was very cool.

2:05:46

Uh talking about how, you know, in the do buildout, the the dark fiber was something only like 7% of fiber that was being laid was actually being used.

2:05:57

It was like obvious even at the time that >> and yet now we're seeing GPU utilization rates you know >> maxed out. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.

2:06:08

I think um that's a pretty good counterpoint to anyone who's like ah whatever.

2:06:13

Like at this point um H100 pricing has massively firmed up.

2:06:16

B200 pricing definitely has super firmed up.

2:06:22

And like hey there's uh there's clearly demand.

2:06:25

I mean, you know, whatever they're doing on the other side of it, that's like uh that's the customer's issues.

2:06:30

But like I I mean, I still think like like honestly, man, the Codex or sorry, uh my brain's all messed up.

2:06:35

Uh uh cloud code has been the most magical moment in technology for me in like my entire time, I think. >> Yeah.

2:06:48

>> It just feels awesome, man.

2:06:49

>> The Game Boy, >> dude.

2:06:52

This is better than Game Boys for me.

2:06:53

I'm an information addict, though. Yeah, makes sense. >> I I am.

2:06:57

So, >> well, we appreciate you taking the time to come chat with us and writing about it and everything that you do.

2:07:02

If you're listening, go pop on semi analysis.

2:07:06

>> Sign up for the 10 million a year plan.

2:07:09

>> Do the million year plan. >> Doug's phone number. You can text him plan.

2:07:14

>> He You actually can actually. >> Yeah, >> I know. I know.

2:07:16

[laughter] >> You should just do it though.

2:07:19

>> I mean, and it's underpriced.

2:07:19

You're giving it away at at taking away your time from your all your different agents.

2:07:24

So, you got to price it in >> right. >> That's right.

2:07:27

You know, my manager will hate that.

2:07:29

[laughter] >> Have a good rest of your day. Have a good weekend. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. >> Goodbye. >> Finn.

2:07:36

AI, the number one AI agent for customer service.

2:07:38

If you want AI to handle your customer support, go to finn. ai.

2:07:43

And without further ado, we have Max Levchin, the CEO of a firm waiting room.

2:07:49

Welcome to the show, >> Max. What's going on? Great to see you. >> See you guys. How's it going? >> Doing great.

2:07:54

Uh, catch us up on the last quarter.

2:08:00

>> Pretty damn great if I do say so myself.

2:08:02

Uh, 36% [clears throat] year-on-year growth of sales volume of our merchants.

2:08:08

>> First billion dollars in revenue quarter, 1. 1ish. So, >> insane.

2:08:14

>> Uh, what's uh what's what's driving that?

2:08:17

Obviously, there's some seasonality, but um what what are the inputs?

2:08:20

inputs? end of the year quarter some some important sales times happen then black Friday comes to mind uh the outlier grower is a firm cart that that thing is still absolutely on fire growing we're 100% year-over-year both

2:08:37

active users transactions like every metric you can imagine that it's growing triple digits um we did a thing in October we decided we're going to invent our own shopping holiday call it the big nothing because basically Everyone got a 0% APR deal. I draw your attention to

2:08:52

I draw your attention to the fact that when we say it's 0% APR, it's 0% APR and it doesn't change.

2:08:57

It doesn't flip and we don't we don't change. >> No fine print.

2:09:02

One of our core values literally somewhere on the wall here. Yeah.

2:09:06

Right there in [clears throat] the corner it says no fine print and we stick to it.

2:09:10

>> Um and so the uh you know it it really uh it really blew up.

2:09:15

We we expected it to be big, but it was really really big and we had a boat outload of merchants basically subsidize APRs down to zero for just about everyone and it had a huge impact on our numbers. >> Okay.

2:09:26

So it was actually so so it was enabled by the individual merchants. >> Yeah.

2:09:30

So the merchants basically said hey you know what we will pay your interest that's >> cool.

2:09:35

Uh I want to get right talk about fintech broadly.

2:09:39

Uh what it's been a absolutely wild week in in the markets.

2:09:45

I think everybody's been looking at uh PayPal just wondering how how can a business with you know this kind of user base >> uh this this much uh >> effects you know licenses >> heavily regulated all all these different things it doesn't obviously there's management component to it >> the last thing you'd vibe code and yet

2:10:06

it feels like it's part of that software SAS apocalypse but how have you been processing sort of like the AI craziness narrative it feels like we We were saying like maybe people are giving a little bit too much credit to the AI labs as disruptors, but how have you been processing it? >> I I don't know if uh if I would throw

2:10:23

>> I I don't know if uh if I would throw the PayPal baby with the uh AI bathwater. >> Yeah, >> if you will.

2:10:33

Um I think the it's always very dangerous to comment on what the market's really saying. Market's not >> human.

2:10:41

>> human. It all sorts of things, but short term it's a voting machine so I think the PayPal thing is really not a commentary on software is cheap software is free like if you look at the strategy of the outgoing CEO who I know pretty well and

2:11:00

respect greatly he's he's a a real bonafide product guy and you know I should go once since I think myself one of those uh his strategy was very much build more software expand [clears throat] the footprint of PayPal and do all kinds of really interesting directions. And so

2:11:13

And so if and obviously I was [clears throat] not even a little bit privy to any of the decisions taking place or why did they choose to change management but if the company believed that software is better, cheaper, easier to build, they wouldn't have changed courses because the the previous guy was absolutely beating the drum of let's build software. >> Yeah.

2:11:32

>> Now I don't know why and what they'll do next but I do agree with you as you know it is my first child [snorts] a little bit sad. >> Yeah.

2:11:40

But uh I do compete with it now with my second child.

2:11:43

So [laughter] >> not so bad. >> Yeah.

2:11:46

I guess I guess what do you So there's a lot of AI opportunity with with a firm opportunity.

2:11:52

One people just understanding more about the financial products that they use in their everyday life and start to pro you know choose products that don't have all the fine print.

2:12:02

Uh obviously efficiency in the business is a is a whole other one.

2:12:04

I'm sure that you're getting a lot out of that.

2:12:08

But when people ask you about the AI risk to a firm, anything on the risk side and then and then payments companies as well, how what is your answer?

2:12:20

>> So I think I have a fairly basic framework how I think about sort of AI changes everything.

2:12:26

AI doesn't change that much sort of you know very broad categorization here.

2:12:30

If you're in the business of owning cash flow producing assets or better yet manufacturing cash flow producing assets, you're probably going to be okay.

2:12:40

Like today, if you're making things that create cash flow, you're probably using software.

2:12:45

If you're not >> you're not doing it right.

2:12:47

And so if you are and you using software or making software to create cash flowing assets, it's about to get really really cheap and much faster and a lot more efficient.

2:12:59

And we're certainly taking full advantage of that idea at firm. And that's what we do.

2:13:03

We make cash flow producing assets.

2:13:05

They're known as a firm loads.

2:13:06

There are about 40 odd million of them made every quarter and growing pretty quickly.

2:13:13

It is difficult to roll out of bed and say let's vibe code that because you can v code some of the code.

2:13:17

But before you get to our scale or our revenue, you have to convince the enormous number of capital market partners you need to process money or you know tens of billions of dollars of loans. We're not a bank.

2:13:31

We're not lending from our own deposits.

2:13:33

That means someone downstream is financing these loans.

2:13:35

And so those relationships are not by coded and they can't [snorts] happen overnight.

2:13:39

Yeah, you can't you can't vibe code a relationship, a real one. >> You cannot.

2:13:45

>> And so yeah, so with payments you have we we you know the whole regulatory side too.

2:13:50

If you're going in you're like in your dorm room and you're like hey I built PayPal and you go to say like okay now I should probably get some money transmitter licenses.

2:13:58

Uh like you know I I expect at some point regulators to say like okay like what what is what does your operation look like?

2:14:05

Do you have any compliance experience [laughter] and all these things and and so at some point and then and then what you're saying is the capital markets is probably even a bigger challenge.

2:14:13

Let's say you you can somehow get the licenses >> uh the licenses then are people going to trust you with you know billions of dollars. >> Exactly.

2:14:23

The both another sort of way of cutting the whole AI accelerates everything.

2:14:29

Some things are still taking about as long as they always did.

2:14:31

So regulators are not going to be like, "Oh, cool.

2:14:36

You're in your dorm room.

2:14:36

You vibe coded a global payment network. Right on. Here's some licenses."

2:14:39

They're like, "It takes 18 months to get a full complement of MTLS and by the way, you have to like prove that you're legitimate business and you're not going to be used for moneyaundering and stuff."

2:14:48

So, >> and there and it's very expensive.

2:14:49

It's not like it like a driver's license where you get it and there's no kind of like ongoing [laughter] like it's like you need to be able to like carry the the weight of of of the license you. >> Yeah.

2:15:01

So licensing, regulatory acceptance, regulatory relationships and capital markets is a lot and it takes a long time to prove that as you put someone else's money at risk, you're going to bring it back >> with interest.

2:15:15

So that that's a big part of what we do.

2:15:17

Another set of relationships you can't wipe code is we have last quarter 4ishund,000 active merchants where these transactions took place.

2:15:26

Each one of those is a sales conversation, contract negotiation, going live, etc.

2:15:33

The going live part is going to get a lot faster.

2:15:34

So, we could now go to a merchant and say, "Hey, good news.

2:15:38

We're going to vibe code the launch together and it'll be a lot quicker.

2:15:42

So, instead of going live next quarter, we'll go live next week."

2:15:43

But until we get there, someone still has to decide that this is a good contract and prove that this will be a creative to the merchant.

2:15:51

And finally, maybe the most important set of relationships is the consumer one.

2:15:54

So we have 26 million active consumers in the last 12 months.

2:15:59

These are people that trusted us that the no fine print thing is real. >> Yeah.

2:16:03

>> It took us 15 years to convince people that when we say 0% loan like the original conversations I had literally with people both in the industry and the man on the street like we're going to lend money at no interest so long as the merchants willing to subsidize the transaction.

2:16:17

Like yeah sure no interest but there's going to be a fine print.

2:16:21

It's going to go to 39% APR.

2:16:21

Like no, it really never does. Never had, never will.

2:16:26

That's part of the core value of this company.

2:16:29

>> Takes a little while to convince people that you're not just, you know, I'm not a crook type thing.

2:16:33

So I'm I'm fairly confident in our ability to defend our >> Yeah. >> Last question for me.

2:16:39

Um I'm interested to know, we're very excited about ads and chattentic commerce.

2:16:45

Do you have a feeling uh not to hold you to something but I just of like how fast the ramp in a gentic commerce and people actually making the decision to purchase in a chat app might be.

2:17:01

We we you know we talked to the folks at Shopify a lot.

2:17:02

We we're trying to triangulate this.

2:17:04

I thought last Black Friday might be a little glimmer of it.

2:17:09

It feels like they're still implementing a lot of things.

2:17:10

Obviously, there's details to iron out, but it feels like certainly this year could be the s the the time when we're seeing 0.

2:17:17

1% 1% I don't know 10% seems sort of high and crazy, but it's where the future's going.

2:17:23

But how do you think about agent commerce numbers this year? >> Don't hold me to it. >> Yeah, I won't.

2:17:33

>> The curves are all turning vertical. >> Okay.

2:17:36

>> And so it's hard to say if it's one if it's one that it's 10.

2:17:38

And if it's 10, it's a lot. Yeah.

2:17:40

But I think some shopping is going to turn very agentic as in I will tell my >> you know consumer coworker equivalent or you know what your fill in your favorite brand. >> Yeah.

2:17:54

>> Go buy me some milk like the rest will just happen which will be awesome.

2:17:56

I will also do that today with Instacart.

2:18:00

So >> the I want to buy a cool new espresso machine which I'm currently shopping for obsessively.

2:18:05

Of course, >> I I want I want that experience to be much more interactive because I'm obsessed with espresso and so it's entertainment is like nerding out and like they have a rotary pump. >> Yeah.

2:18:18

>> It's not as loud as the vibration one.

2:18:20

So I think >> it's going to become augmented by agents, but it's still going to be like I'm very much part of this.

2:18:25

And that becomes to blend into like well research with Google versus research with Gemini is the same thing. Yep.

2:18:32

>> Which sort of brings me to like I think there's quite quite a bit of industry pearl clutching around ads and chatbots. Oh my god.

2:18:39

Like I think it's the best thing that's going to happen to this industry.

2:18:42

Like everyone is holding their breath around on the one hand will AI kill software, software eat software, whatever.

2:18:49

They say like well will we be able to afford this giant buildout so these models can get smarter. Guess what?

2:18:54

We make most of the money on the internet.

2:18:56

Not us, but most of the rest of the internet makes money with ads.

2:18:58

So ads in the single fastest growing piece of the internet wouldn't be such a bad thing for people that need a lot of capital.

2:19:05

So >> I for one welcome the uh ads and bots so long as clearly delineated.

2:19:09

There's ethical consolations all that stuff.

2:19:10

But >> of course >> I think I think it's coming fast and >> you know I think so far most people have underpredicted the pace of these changes.

2:19:19

So, I'm not going to claim that it's going to be 10% by the end of the year, but it wouldn't shock me if it was.

2:19:25

>> Yeah, that would be sort of my high my high bound.

2:19:27

And it'll be hard to measure because with that espresso machine, people will clearly do a ton of re I like I could imagine firing off a deep research report.

2:19:35

Tell me everything, understand the landscape.

2:19:36

How long are the companies?

2:19:38

I want to know the company's history. Did who's the founder? Tell me everything.

2:19:41

But then also, I want to go to the website and also I want to go to the showroom.

2:19:44

And also, you know, and then maybe I make the purchase after talking to somebody.

2:19:49

I walk out of the store and I say, "Hey, buy that thing, ship it here."

2:19:50

Or maybe I do all the research and then I, you know, tell someone else to just purchase it and they go buy it in person because I want it the same day.

2:19:57

There there's like a million different edge cases.

2:19:59

So, the number will be hard, but my my vibes based analysis is right uh right in the same target slot as yours. So, uh fantastic. >> Last question for me.

2:20:09

How what's your buy verse build uh framework in the context of a firm?

2:20:14

there's uh you guys have are clearly able to take product 0 to1 internally quite well like with the card but at the same time it feels like there's so much in the world that's on sale right now. >> True.

2:20:28

Um you know M&A wise we've done a couple of things well and a bunch of things less well and so we're very very cautious.

2:20:40

So, you know, as the world goes on sale, it's tempting to look at, you know, things that are maybe undervalued, maybe could could plug right into the puzzle or accountability here.

2:20:49

Generally speaking, we're super cautious.

2:20:50

So, for the number of people that run in with like, hey, cool, we can buy this thing now.

2:20:56

My answer typically is like, why would we would we benefit from this?

2:21:01

Like, is is this is this better owned by us?

2:21:02

Then they maybe a different version of the same question is >> well, yeah. Yeah.

2:21:06

Just just because you might make a fantastic CEO of a company that's on sale doesn't mean that it wouldn't be massively distracting >> if you were to try to integrate it and make it a part of the ecosystem. >> Yeah.

2:21:19

And and and back to sort of like some things are super accelerating and some things are exactly as slow or as fast as they've always been.

2:21:28

>> The human relationship part where a new team comes in and you're like like I just bought you.

2:21:34

How exactly do we get along now?

2:21:34

Like that's not going to get any easier.

2:21:35

And if anything, it's going to get like there's a lot of CEOs I know who are thinking it would be a great time to sell my company.

2:21:42

Not because I want to sell my company, but because there's so much opportunity in this AI enabled world.

2:21:47

I want to start another one.

2:21:48

>> I want to start something new.

2:21:50

>> Like that's actually a terrible thing for the acquirer.

2:21:53

>> The number one thing you want is like the typical value of the asset is the team. >> Yeah.

2:21:58

>> The team is like, I'm just trying to dump this thing.

2:21:59

Like not sure what I want to do. >> Yeah.

2:22:02

Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come chat with us.

2:22:04

Good luck with the search for the ultimate espresso machine.

2:22:07

Let us know what you decide. We'll announce it.

2:22:11

>> You should have the the max's list, the top rated. >> Yes. >> Different machines.

2:22:17

>> Anyways, great to catch up.

2:22:18

>> I'll leave you without I own two identical linear minis. >> Okay.

2:22:23

>> Just because one breaks, I >> Yes, [laughter] >> this is commitment. This is serious. >> Smart. I like that. That's peak performance.

2:22:28

I'm a little insane when it comes to coffee.

2:22:30

[laughter] >> Well, thank you so much for taking the time.

2:22:32

We'll talk to you [clears throat] soon. Have a great weekend. >> Cheers. >> Goodbye.

2:22:36

>> Let me tell you about 11 Labs.

2:22:36

Build intelligent realtime conversational agents.

2:22:41

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2:22:44

>> And we know there was some uh roughness on the audio there.

2:22:46

That is why we're making the TVPN the pit lane headset. >> Yes.

2:22:52

>> We're not going to send mics to people.

2:22:53

We are going to send people uh headsets with the boom mic.

2:22:57

It's going to look like you're in the paddic.

2:22:58

It's going to look like you're >> not in the paddic.

2:23:01

>> No, >> in the pit lane. >> In the pit lane. Yeah, in the pit lane. Sorry.

2:23:04

[laughter] >> Well, without further ado, uh I guess we don't have our guest.

2:23:08

>> Let me tell you about Cognition.

2:23:08

They're the makers of Devon, the AI software engineer.

2:23:12

Crush your backlog with your personal AI engineering team.

2:23:13

And I was looking at uh >> crushing it in the enterprise.

2:23:18

>> Crushing in the enterprise. Yes. Great.

2:23:20

The company's doing fantastically.

2:23:20

Uh Jordan Schneider did an interesting uh side byside of of uh Devon versus Claude Code building a RTS, a real-time strategy game.

2:23:30

Uh and said congrats to Scott Woo and Russell Kaplan on the decisive win.

2:23:35

Uh and he's uh he's vibe coding games, which I'm excited for these to release.

2:23:40

I feel like that we're we're things are happening so fast and yet I want to play Shto's game.

2:23:44

I want to play more vibecoded games.

2:23:46

all of those Instagram real ads that show you the fake games that are all clickbait to get you to buy some, you know, game that's ultimately Candy Crush.

2:23:55

Uh, I want the actual game that looks fun.

2:23:57

Uh, where you're fighting the zombies or something. >> Okay.

2:24:01

Some quick context before TJ joins. Yes.

2:24:03

So, he's coming on to talk to us about Trump RX, which launched, I believe, yesterday.

2:24:09

And then also this new WGO uh GLP1 pill >> that was launched and then immediately cloned by him and hers.

2:24:16

Nova Nordisk put out a press release on >> the illegal mass compounding and deceptive advertising by Hims and Hers.

2:24:27

QCAP said Novo is basically calling him a corner store drug dealer.

2:24:29

Wait, does does Novo not believe that imitation is the sincerest form of flattery?

2:24:35

>> No, they think it's disgusting. >> Interesting. Okay.

2:24:37

Well, we'll have to >> Novo Nordisk issued the following statement regarding the announcement by Hims and Hers that they will unlawfully mass market an unapproved, inauthentic, and untested knockoff saglutide pill.

2:24:48

The action by hims and hers is illegal mass compounding that poses a significant risk to patient safety.

2:24:53

These >> are harsh words.

2:24:53

Nova Nordisk will take legal and regulatory action to protect patients our IP and the integrity of the US gold standard drug approval framework and uh Dr.

2:25:02

Marty Mar uh M Mari the uh commissioner of the FDA said the FDA will take swift action against companies mass marketing illegal copycat drugs claiming they are similar to FDA approved products.

2:25:17

>> The FDA cannot verify the quality, safety or effectiveness of nonapproved drugs.

2:25:22

Marty has a great book, by the way.

2:25:22

You should you should read it if you want to know more about the FDA strategy.

2:25:25

It's a it's a very fascinating uh contrarian take on on healthcare.

2:25:30

He he he identifies a bunch of interesting places where uh for some psychological reason or some sort of structural reason uh scientists that had discovered some truth about uh health care or or medicine were unable to sort of propagate their finding.

2:25:47

and he identifies a number of these uh these sort of bizarre scenarios.

2:25:51

So, we'll dig into it quickly.

2:25:55

>> Let me tell you about Sentry.

2:25:55

Sentry shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast.

2:25:58

That's why 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working.

2:26:02

And without further ado, let's bring in TJ Parker >> to the TVP Ultradom. Welcome to the show. How are you doing? >> I am great. How are you? >> I'm good.

2:26:12

Uh complicated day in the news.

2:26:16

Where should we start first? What? What? What story? >> Air cooled Porsches. >> Air cooled Porsches.

2:26:20

Are they still cool in the age of AI or am I going to be able to vibe code one?

2:26:25

>> I think uh they're going to be cooler in the age of >> There we go. >> I like it. >> Yeah.

2:26:30

What about in healthcare? >> Yeah. Big big week.

2:26:32

Uh want to talk about Let's just jump straight into the the WGO Nova Nordis hymns drama.

2:26:37

What uh >> what's been your reaction?

2:26:43

How have you been tracking the story up until this week? all that good stuff. >> Yeah.

2:26:49

I think maybe to jump back to how we got here and I think folks are probably pretty familiar with this, but the hymns of the world were obviously compounding the injectable for quite a long time.

2:27:00

Um, but the origination of that was that those injectables were in short order.

2:27:05

short order. or they were on back order and so they were allowed to compound them as a stop gap for the manufacturers to get sufficient supply >> and that was basically real in the early early phases of this right and >> important because if someone's overweight and they want to lose weight quickly being overweight is dangerous healthy not not good for your lifespan

2:27:27

all >> so that's why the FDA is set up in that way but the question is like how long does that go >> basically hims got addicted to compounding >> yeah and that was maybe call it 18 months ago or so where that was kind of that peaked and then uh the FDA did issue a warning letter to HIMS back in the fall when the shortage ended telling them to stop mass compounding. So they

2:27:46

So they have commented on this before but their level of enforcement has been lacking. >> Mhm.

2:27:53

Um, I think the stark difference with what happened yesterday is that the WGOI pill has a specific technology called snack that they actually paid $2 billion for the IP specifically for that technology to allow for you to be able to actually absorb the peptide and have the drug be effective.

2:28:11

And HIMS explicitly has stated they didn't use that technology.

2:28:15

Instead, they're using liposomaal absorption, which it maybe works, maybe it doesn't, but there's certainly not just like insane It's You're insane.

2:28:24

You're selling a a a drug that you claim works that has no >> like >> approval testing, >> right?

2:28:33

Is this zero studies, zero approvals?

2:28:36

So, this is where it's super different from the injectables where >> they weren't changing the formulation, right?

2:28:41

It was very similar to the branded drug.

2:28:44

>> We can talk about the challenges of IP and a bunch of things, but it's different in the sense that here there's no evidence that this drug works at all.

2:28:51

And so the most likely scenario is they're selling a, you know, a $50 drug that doesn't work that still has a bunch of side effects because it still has the drug that just doesn't get absorbed through your GI.

2:29:00

So it's it's it's very different. It's not an IP issue.

2:29:02

It's really an efficacy and and safety issue, which is why I think you saw the FDA come out much faster and a much more explicit way pretty immediately after the launch yesterday.

2:29:13

Why would hymns do something that seems completely nonsensical and bad for patients and bad?

2:29:23

>> Well, I I have a quote here from them.

2:29:24

Uh, compounding is a safe, legal, and long recognized practice within the American health care system. So, that's their stance. >> Okay.

2:29:32

but ignoring the fact that they're inventing a new delivery mechanism via liposomaal for >> and are selling it as a product claiming >> that's why they're getting push back. Yeah. >> Yeah.

2:29:45

I mean I think the situation is you have a $5 billion market cap company >> where half of their revenue is these compounded GLP ones where that market is quickly contracting on them.

2:29:54

They're doing a bunch of buybacks.

2:29:56

They've invested a ton in incremental capex.

2:30:00

It's like a recipe for disaster if that revenue starts to fall away.

2:30:04

>> Um, and it feels >> do they think the pill the pill is just going to do they is the expectation that the pill is going to effectively eat the injectable market because a lot of people would rather take a pill than you know you know have have to do injection even if it's once a week. >> Yeah.

2:30:20

I think if you look at the archetype of who I believe to be the HIMS customer, they're buying the injectable because it was the cheapest place to get it.

2:30:25

now you have a branded drug that's half the price of their injectable.

2:30:29

Like I think it's partially the the route of administration.

2:30:31

I think partially that it's just half the price.

2:30:35

>> Um and so it's it's hard to imagine that they're not going to have a significant issue with churn >> and people switching from the injectable.

2:30:41

Partially yeah because of the the ease of use but also just literally half the price which was their entire value prop >> prior to Novo is not expecting are they able to mass produce this already?

2:30:51

Like are they >> they have no shortage issues?

2:30:53

is they've been ramping up production for quite some time.

2:30:57

>> Um I think they were quite prepared for the launch and so you have none of the shortage dynamics and frankly like pills are exponentially easier to manufacture than than their injectable pen specifically which is where the shortages came from.

2:31:10

>> Y >> um so there's no similar rationale.

2:31:14

I think it's also comparatively reasonable that you don't want to force a bunch of patients off the injectable product.

2:31:20

So there is like a reasonable safety argument that that has to be like a very >> thoughtful and calculated wind down.

2:31:25

Now I think they've uh they're onboarding new customers that doesn't totally hold water compared to the behavior.

2:31:30

Um but in this instance it feels more like a financial hailm given I think what the market dynamics are going to do to them over the next 12 months.

2:31:40

>> What about the alternative scenario or playbook?

2:31:44

like I remember HIMS as being sort of like a front end to uh drugs that they didn't compound and it was a place to get hair loss medication and and sort of name brand drugs that I felt like just it was online pharmacy like why doesn't that model work in the age of peptides and GLP1s?

2:32:00

Why can't you just be the the you know the digital doctor that prescribes then you go pick it up at your local pharmacy?

2:32:10

a couple reasons and I think if you look at their competitive set you know the biggest one being row obviously that's how they've managed through this right they have not remained reliant on compounded drugs as the shortage has gone away they've ramped up their access points to branded therapies they're

2:32:25

that's exactly what they're doing and executing I think when you're in the position of him it's hard to not get addicted to a $250 product with 90% gross margins when if you're selling access to the branded drug at most you're going to make $10 to $15 $1 on $150 product. Um, and so I think they to

2:32:40

Um, and so I think they to some degree don't realize the business they're in.

2:32:47

Like in a traditional retailer and distribution business, which is really the business that they're in, they're not a manufacturer.

2:32:52

>> Um, that's a scale, low margin business where price, convenience, like all the things that make Amazon successful make you successful.

2:33:00

um they have sort of morphed into a manufacturing business without any of the IP, >> any of the R&D costs, like any of the things that come along with being a manufacturer.

2:33:09

And I think it's an addictive addicting place to be because the margins are quite a bit better than than being a retailer. >> Yeah.

2:33:16

Can you explain more about this uh the the warning letter that the FDA uh shared addressed to him and her health September 9th, 2025?

2:33:24

You can find this on FDA. gov.

2:33:27

Uh they're they're they're they're saying uh it says the FDA has observed that your website offers various compounded drugs including simaglutide as described alone that your compla your claims are concerning uh concerning your compounded semiglutide products are false or misleading.

2:33:44

Um how how would a company normally respond to a uh a warning letter from the FDA?

2:33:49

It's not it's not fully shut down. It's not a lawsuit.

2:33:54

It's more of a corrective by the FDA. Is that correct? >> Yeah.

2:33:59

I think historically in combating specifically, the FDA has lacked material enforcement. >> Mhm.

2:34:06

>> And so in many ways, I think what you're seeing here is that there's a skepticism that they'll actually enforce.

2:34:10

And so it's business as usual.

2:34:14

>> Don't take the warning letter seriously.

2:34:16

>> Y >> I think with that overlay, I think the reason the FDA still sends letters like that is if they do have a material safety issue, >> which is what has happened with compounding in the past.

2:34:25

you had 60 people die of menitis in 2012 >> um from a compounding pharmacy doing scale compounding.

2:34:31

They have a a paper trail of telling them that you were out of compliance.

2:34:37

>> Um and so, you know, I think this will probably be a different situation.

2:34:39

I think one important point is the FDA does not enforce IP.

2:34:44

So, they're not going to get involved in >> actual quote unquote IP theft. That's for the courts. >> Got it.

2:34:50

Um, but they do enforce safety and efficacy, which is why I think they address this so much faster because they believe it's an efficacy issue.

2:34:56

Um, not solely an IP infringement issue, which would again be be left to the courts. >> Yeah. Uh, what about Walmart?

2:35:02

Are they a potential way out of this? You need scale.

2:35:07

I don't know how advanced they are, but uh, you know, you have an exper you have experience with Amazon.

2:35:12

Walmart just hit a trillion dollar market cap.

2:35:15

It seems like the business is doing well.

2:35:16

Um, they were not disrupted.

2:35:16

they need more technology.

2:35:19

Is there something where a partnership could uh allow him to sort of go get out of the compounding business and go more to the scaled low margin business but still be growing?

2:35:33

>> Yeah, it it feels like just given the reputation that that would be hard to imagine happening.

2:35:38

I think they have built obviously a lot of compelling customer experiences.

2:35:41

They built really good tech.

2:35:42

Um, but I think just given the overhang from these regulatory challenges, it's hard to imagine a large acquirer is going to get comfortable with that um kind of retrospective and presumably ongoing liability. >> Mhm. Yeah.

2:35:56

>> Uh, switching gears, Trump RX, what uh what's what's up with that?

2:36:03

>> Yeah, I feel like I should take a victory lap here.

2:36:04

I think I the first time I was on here was to talk about the executive order for Trump RX.

2:36:08

Um, and I think my point at that moment in time was that the real thrust of that EO, which was not super clear then, but is how I interpreted it, is that it was an effort to eliminate this this discrepancy between super high list prices and the net prices that insurers and PBMs actually pay, right?

2:36:30

So, for these GLP1s, they had these $1,000 $1,200 list prices, but in reality, if you were a PBM, you were paying 200 bucks, 300 bucks.

2:36:39

And I think that's exactly what you saw here where there's a number of branded drugs which before if you were a consumer paying out of pocket you had to pay that high list price.

2:36:48

They've gotten the manufacturers to come to the table and offer a consumer directed net price.

2:36:52

So really if you are paying out of pocket for a bunch of these drugs you're saving 60 70% compared to what was available to you a year ago.

2:37:01

Um, now some of that could just be the GOP market forces, but that wouldn't have touched a number of the products that have moved onto Trump RX.

2:37:09

I think given the selection, it's maybe like 25 actual brands that haven't gone generic that have low net prices that are on there right now.

2:37:16

It's not the most exciting thing in the world, but I do think you're going to see manufacturers just start to launch new products at net, and that will completely unwind the value of the current supply chain, middlemen, PBMs, all those things.

2:37:29

So, I think it's net good.

2:37:30

Um, but I think it's like the early days of what could materially change how these things go to market and the pricing that's associated with that.

2:37:38

>> So, it's not just good marketing for the midterms.

2:37:44

>> No, I mean, I think it is good marketing.

2:37:45

I think uh everyone has quoted these ridiculous list prices as the actual price.

2:37:50

It's been like a pet peeve of mine forever and they are now quoting much lower kind of list prices.

2:37:57

So, I think that is going to be perceived as a win for the midterms, but the drugs aren't actually cheaper than like a payer would have paid a year ago, but they are cheaper than a consumer could have gotten access to a year ago.

2:38:07

So, I think it's net good and um I think hopefully a trend that will accelerate and change the pricing dynamics uh more dramatically.

2:38:16

>> Can I ask [snorts] about AI doctors?

2:38:17

>> That's what I was going to ask about my mind thinking the same thing.

2:38:20

Uh we've talked to a couple companies that have come on and and talked about consumer level AI doctor doctor in your pocket you you know you got a mole you take a picture of it tells you what you know you say I feel sick it'll tell you go get some blood work done or something.

2:38:35

Some of them have partnered with certain states to get real doctors involved.

2:38:39

There's a whole bunch of different models at the same time they're facing pressure from open AI and you know they're launching a health product.

2:38:45

Uh how do you think that market plays out?

2:38:49

What are you optimistic about?

2:38:49

How how much does it can actually improve American health care?

2:38:53

There's always a lot of talk about like if you just talked, you know, primary care doctor was available more frequently, we'd be way healthier.

2:39:01

And I don't know that there's that many people that are like, well, I never thought to Google I should sleep, diet, and exercise.

2:39:07

So now that I can chat GBT and I'm I'm healthy.

2:39:08

But walk me through your whole philosophy on like AI chat bots in consumer healthcare.

2:39:18

Yeah, I mean I think first of all it's obviously goodness, right?

2:39:20

I think people are really going to GPTs to get advice on their health and I think it's something like seven or eight% of chat GPT's volume is health related, health specific.

2:39:30

So clearly that's net good.

2:39:30

I think in many ways it replaces people going to Google to do the same thing.

2:39:37

It's much more efficient.

2:39:37

It's definitely more effective. So that's all good.

2:39:41

I think the my thesis on the end state of that and where it really unlocks a bunch of value is when it is fully aware of all your medical history.

2:39:50

Um and so that's pretty critical.

2:39:50

Um and chatbt has launched a version of that though it's pretty light on the actual data integration.

2:39:59

>> Um and then more specific >> they acquired they acquired some company I think to help with that wasn't it the the it was a >> there's a company it wasn't called >> it was a >> it was a company that was like trying to I think

2:40:11

>> yeah torch it was the what was the name of the company they had before it was not not future >> forward >> forward health yeah >> y >> so clearly they're thinking about all this stuff >> yeah there's a fundamental regulatory

2:40:24

framework where if you're a provider you can access a much broader set of data to deliver care to the consumer if you're a technology company they're accessing via this thing called tefka where very few providers are contributing data to that

2:40:37

and so there's a lot of nuance to this but the the punch line is that if you are purely a technology company, your access to the breadth of data necessary to be useful is much more limited. >> So you basically need to be

2:40:47

>> So you basically need to be a provider that employs actual medical doctors.

2:40:55

>> You need to be a provider actually providing care to that customer. Yeah. >> Yeah.

2:40:59

And so, so we had one of these companies, Lotus, on the other day, and if he's in an investor pitch, and people are like, "Hey, like I AI Doctor is cool, but ChachiBT is doing this. Claude's doing this.

2:41:10

There's other companies that are >> uh or or Claude might, you know, do something like this.

2:41:15

There's other companies that are it's super competitive space.

2:41:18

They're saying, "Okay, but OpenAI is not going to have doctors on staff and is not going to actually be licensed and uh able to actually deliver." >> Yeah.

2:41:27

>> Yeah. doesn't prohibit them from doing interesting things with partner Zervia MCP or some other approach that uh can mimic you know some of the things that we built at General Medicine and some other folks are building um but in and of themselves whether it's Claude or Chat GPT or Apple Health any of these

2:41:41

guys their their ability to provide similar levels of care is just going to be constrained I also think like the probably the more salient point is I think where this becomes really magic is where all of these conversations get actually distilled to your provider before your appointment. So instead of

2:41:57

So instead of having to repeat all the things you've already said and like go back through your medical history, like you're you sort of show up to the appointment, your provider's been prepped based on everything you've already chatted about and can actually start to like deal with what they might want to do in that appointment.

2:42:12

Um, so that's where we've seen it be the most interesting and useful and I'm sure other folks will end up in a similar spot.

2:42:19

>> Um, but I think like the combination of GPT all the way through to the visit, informing the visit and then informing the care is super powerful.

2:42:24

What's the textbook example of like medical history being valuable?

2:42:28

Because maybe I'm just like in a weird spot, but I usually just say like no, I don't I haven't done anything.

2:42:33

But like I I don't know like if you like I I don't know.

2:42:38

I actually haven't broken any bones.

2:42:39

But like assuming like I was like I broke my arm when I was five.

2:42:41

Like does that really like increase cancer risk?

2:42:45

Like how are these things actually flowing through?

2:42:46

Like what's the textbook?

2:42:48

>> I think the average American is on prescription medication. >> Okay.

2:42:51

So they show up and they're like, "Oh, you're already on this medication. Why did that?

2:42:55

>> So yeah, I mean I'll give you like a a tangible example that like Elliot experienced in our GPT which is >> he's been having this plantto fasciitis issue on one foot and I hope he doesn't mind that I'm sharing his PHI. >> Yeah.

2:43:07

>> And the show actually >> Yeah.

2:43:09

The GPT was able to decipher that the same thing on the other foot in like 2006 or something like from like 20 years ago. >> Okay.

2:43:16

>> Um which is where like you just he didn't even remember having the issue.

2:43:19

It was not relevant to him. Okay.

2:43:22

>> Um, and I think there's more like substantive examples where you might have had a series of lab tests over the last 5 years.

2:43:29

>> Any one of them is not problematic, but the trends that are being exposed when you can >> see that trend is pretty, you know, compelling. >> Okay.

2:43:37

>> Um, there's also just like you can recommend all sorts of screenings based on when you've actually done those screenings and what hasn't hasn't been done, that kind of thing. >> Yeah. Yeah.

2:43:44

No, that that makes a ton of sense. Jordy, anything else?

2:43:48

Is it dangerous that OpenAI hooked a biolab up to there?

2:43:54

We're gonna have the founder uh of GKO, who they uh they partnered with on on the on the AI Bolab, but what are your thoughts?

2:44:04

>> You want to vibe code some some uh >> some drugs, >> some studies?

2:44:08

>> Seems like a fun experiment, you know, but what could possibly go wrong?

2:44:14

>> We'll clip it when it happens. when the world ends. The one final clip.

2:44:19

>> We're like, TJ called it. >> TJ called it.

2:44:21

[laughter] >> Anyway, >> doomer.

2:44:25

>> Yeah, there will be victory laps if the apocalypse happens. For sure. >> Last last question.

2:44:29

Uh, how have you been processing the all the EV manufacturers having to basically take these massive impairment or sorry, just car manufacturers in general taking these massive hits?

2:44:40

It was Stellantis is down something like 20% after the company announced it's taking a $26 billion hit and writing down their electric vehicle business.

2:44:48

Uh did you did you predict this as well?

2:44:54

>> You know, I'm I'm still loving my Raptor R, which gets about 11 miles per gallon.

2:44:58

So, I think you know how I feel about the situation. >> There you go.

2:45:02

>> Yeah, >> that's great.

2:45:03

I'm trying to get Jordy to get one.

2:45:04

[laughter] >> You're buying your You're buying your carbon You're buying your carbon offsets, though, right? Of course. >> Yeah. Yeah, for sure. For sure. >> Thank you. >> Awesome.

2:45:12

>> Well, thank you so much for coming on the show. >> Great to catch up.

2:45:15

>> Great to catch up as well.

2:45:16

>> I'm sure there'll be a lot more here.

2:45:17

So, we'll have you back soon. >> Pleasure as always. >> Have a good weekend.

2:45:20

Let me tell you about Crowd Strike. Your business is AI.

2:45:24

Their business is securing it.

2:45:24

Crowd Strike secures AI and stops breaches.

2:45:29

And without further ado, >> uh we're going over to the co co-founder and SVP of field engineering from Data Bricks, Arcelon. Welcome to the show. How are you doing? >> What's happening?

2:45:41

>> Hey guys, thanks for having me. >> Good to see you. Great to meet you.

2:45:44

>> First time on the show, I believe.

2:45:44

Uh please introduce yourself. Tell us what you do.

2:45:49

>> This is when we say uh first time uh first time tuning in, longtime watcher, lurker or something like that. >> I appreciate it.

2:45:54

We enjoy talking to your co-founder. >> Awesome.

2:45:57

Well, yeah guys, um Arcelon Tavakoli, one of the co-founders here at Data Bricks. Yeah.

2:46:02

>> Um you know, run what's known as field engineering.

2:46:03

So, think about >> anything technical not in core R&D.

2:46:06

So it's about a third of the company um roughly give or take and then uh before that like all the other founders came out of Berkeley and as my adviser like to say I joined the dark side in between and meant I went to a consulting company McKenzie spent about four years there before we started about 12. >> There we go.

2:46:22

We love we loved you know we love to hear that.

2:46:26

>> Put in put in your time.

2:46:26

We were we were on a flight the other day and and uh John and I were asking this guy uh to switch seats with us cuz we like to we like to we we uh some people are surprised, but even after 3 hours of recording, we still want to keep uh talking.

2:46:42

And uh the guy had a UBS shirt on and John John was like, "Do you work at UBS?" And he's like, "Yeah."

2:46:47

And John goes, "Thank you for your service."

2:46:49

And [laughter] the guy just started laughing.

2:46:53

>> He thought I was making fun of >> Thank you.

2:46:54

Thank you for your service at McKenzie.

2:46:55

You got to thank your bankers, your Swiss bankers specifically.

2:46:57

Uh, I want your reaction to this Tyler Cowan post.

2:47:01

Today will go down as some kind of turning point somewhat arbitrarily, but it's okay if journalists and historians have to present things in that manner.

2:47:11

He posted this at 11:00 a. m. on February 5th.

2:47:13

That of course was the day that both Codeex 5. 3 and Opus 4. 6 launched.

2:47:19

It feels like he's talking about software engineering, automated software engineering, AI agents, sort of everything coming to a head.

2:47:26

How have you been processing this week?

2:47:27

Does it feel like there's a turning point?

2:47:29

Is this all part of some smooth curve?

2:47:33

What's been your view on the ground?

2:47:36

>> Yeah, look, I think uh I've lost track now based on those definitions.

2:47:38

I think we've had like 3,000 watershed moments in the past year that everybody said is like the turn >> more than Yeah, more than one. Way more than one a day.

2:47:48

We have three hours of content every day. It works perfectly.

2:47:51

>> I feel like every day I tune into X and somebody's like, "This is the day. This is it.

2:47:56

>> The singularity is here. It's over. We're back."

2:47:59

>> Look, I I mean, I I think it's more of a smoother curve, right, as we go through.

2:48:03

And clearly every day, I think it's a combination of the technology is getting better, but I think a lot of it right now, what holds people back, what they can do is less the technology, but it's more people learning how to use it, how to deploy it, all the things [clears throat] around it to to put value.

2:48:17

Like that's going to be the long tale.

2:48:19

I think um we're not even close to harnessing the technology that we have today, much less saying, "Hey, it got a little bit better.

2:48:24

Now everything's going to change."

2:48:25

At least from what we're seeing. >> Yeah.

2:48:27

So talk about your forward deployed engineers, whatever you call them, like implementation, how you like to work with companies, and then I want to uh compare and understand what it might look like at the labs as they sort of dip their toe into the FDE model. >> Yeah.

2:48:41

Look, I think um so I think that there's two things.

2:48:46

there's two things. A lot of places when they talk about forward deployed engineer so this is the cool term right now I guess to use is this concept that says go to ask people what is it that you want what's the outcome that you want to drive you want to do you know revenue forecast optimization you want to do demand forecasting and then I'll build something for you

2:49:03

>> the problem is many of the organizations just came the talk about that are kind of like okay I'll build something custom for you um I'll get it fast but then the hard part is is that scalable is it open how does that work so data bricks is probably a a little bit different than the rest of them cuz we've got an actual platform and product that's used by over 20,000 people. But I think right now

2:49:20

20,000 people. But I think right now when you look at it in the AI world, >> yeah, >> what works for us at least is um we go in and some organizations right now are saying help me with a specific problem like I want to do you know let me get my data in order which is important for AI

2:49:35

or let me kind of do a migration or let me set this up and then we have the same set of somebody says um come help me like transform like Fox new if you know Fox Cletus the sports app that they have that you can ask questions like that one they were like come build something >> Paul at Fox is a good buddy I don't know if Yeah. [laughter]

2:49:51

[laughter] >> So he's like come build it soup to nuts for that.

2:49:54

And that was one that we did everything end to end and deliver something that works um that they want.

2:49:59

So we span the gamut from helping you work with products to kind of actually delivering outcomes. We do both. >> Okay.

2:50:05

And then uh best practices pretend I'm a CEO of AI lab who will remain on a nameless list and I'm trying to hire 700 a couple thousand uh consulting type four deployed sales engineering roles.

2:50:20

uh what are best practices?

2:50:20

How fast can you actually spin someone up to become a you know an effective for deployed engineer?

2:50:28

What's what are the pitfalls? >> Yeah.

2:50:31

Um lots of questions embedded in there.

2:50:33

So um look, I think first and foremost what you're looking for today for people is they need to do two things.

2:50:39

Um one they actually have to be able to build hands-on.

2:50:42

I think you end up in the solution engineer space getting a lot of what I call like the slideware demos like hey I can I'm a walking dictionary I can tell you about things I can build a deck um it just doesn't really cut it anymore.

2:50:54

So one more that what people say is come show me rapidly prototype.

2:50:58

So they have to be able to build and they have to be able to use AI tools to build otherwise they're going to be slow.

2:51:02

The second thing is um you can't just go get engineers.

2:51:06

They have to be able to talk to customers because like the most important thing is if I go walk to your basically CEO or CIO, I have to be able to say what's your business problem, understand why it matters and decompose that into technical pieces.

2:51:17

So you need people who have both of those.

2:51:18

Um so you have to screen from it and it's different than what the what I would call the traditional solution engineering interviews are in terms of how fast to get somebody ramped up.

2:51:30

Look, you're hiring smart people.

2:51:32

Generally, to get familiar with all the tools, we'd say 3 months is fast.

2:51:34

6 months is when they're operating at full steam.

2:51:38

It doesn't mean that you can't drop them in front of customers, you know, in the first couple of weeks, but that's the amount of time that they get set like what are the most common problems?

2:51:46

What's the most efficient way?

2:51:47

How do I navigate an organization?

2:51:47

And you can hire a lot, but absorbing too many people too fast just means you're also going to candidly degrade culture and skill set. >> Yeah.

2:51:58

Um, we were just talking to Doug Olaflin about how he's using clog code.

2:52:02

about how he's using clog code. He's he's vibe coding all these things and a lot of what he was describing were uh sort of like oneoff data analyses or uh small smaller projects that could sort of run locally be compressed like

2:52:17

spreadsheet level certainly not you know big data cross you know like data bricks level infrastructure required but I'm wondering if you see a world where an individual would vibe code something that's so big and processing so much data that the agent or the individual

2:52:38

vibe coder is actually pulling data bricks off the shelf like do we are do we go to a world like that I've had ideas for vibe coding projects that have been like yeah sure I'd love a personal assistant that read the entire internet every day but that seems like not on the table right now but are we moving to a

2:52:54

future where that's possible >> uh yeah so two things I think one we are but second like I sometimes say from a data bricks perspective I wish I could walk in you know in like Men in Black where they have that button that causes people to forget. >> Sure. Yeah. I think that there is this >> Sure. Yeah.

2:53:06

>> Sure. Yeah. I think that there is this vision of data bricks of hey it's really really good if you have a bunch of data and stuff like that but but actually like a bunch of our users today what's really valuable for your use cases even if you say you want to work for a spreadsheet you're like

2:53:20

>> I don't keep that who keeps anything on their local laptop anymore right just like I work in an organization I just want a place where I can access all the data big or small but it's governed it's high quality so actually a lot of the people inside of data bricks use I mean called genie right because you can get

2:53:36

asked for is mainly like can I get a world where I can do exactly what you said I can quickly b code what I need um >> small amounts of data but it's governed I can visualize it I can iterate on it so that's the first thing I'd put >> I think what you start seeing is every everything that you start with for like

2:53:53

any project it starts small great I want my data then your next thing is oh but it would be really cool if I could merge it with this and it would be really cool if it could do so as you get it to work it naturally balloons into something that both leverages more data is much more computational much more comprehensive. So you very quickly end

2:54:07

So you very quickly end up in a world where you've outstripped the can I just do it on my laptop even for the average user.

2:54:14

>> Yeah, we were uh we were talking to Sam Alman yesterday.

2:54:16

We were about different bottlenecks and he was saying that data was a bottleneck for a while at least like a rumored perceived bottleneck.

2:54:22

Uh it really hasn't seemed to bottleneck progress in any meaningful way.

2:54:26

progress in any meaningful way. uh but I'm wondering if you see uh if you look at the growth of the data market or data is the new oil just is there a boom in in the scale or or importance of data with the Neol boom there's more and more

2:54:43

companies that are training different models it feels like there's both more data being collected than ever but then also more data being generated than ever so can you just talk about zooming out like what is the what does the growth of just data look like in the US economy for me these days. >> Look, I think the the growth of data is

2:54:59

>> Look, I think the the growth of data is significant, right?

2:55:01

I mean, there's no question about that.

2:55:02

And look, you said data is the new oil.

2:55:04

I think one, you've got to define you got to separate out the world of the consumer world, which I think about where many of many of where many people's familiarity with AI is, right?

2:55:16

I want to ask a question.

2:55:16

Help me understand, you know, is this a cold or an allergy or plan my travel vacation?

2:55:21

And that's the I need the whole corpus of the web and that people that amount of data is kind of finite.

2:55:25

If I if that makes sense and new one people are generating new ones through AI but that's one >> I think that there's a separate question of why you said most people focus on data in the enterprise world it usually goes the following I need AI I have to pick a model let me pick which model is it open 4.

2:55:41

it open 4.6 six is it the new basically GPT model is it Gemini etc great I started crap I now I have to figure out how to deploy this and that's a lot about security evaluations governance great now I did this and my accuracy is 60% 60% is kind of crappy accuracy how do I get to 100% yeah

2:56:00

>> the answer is you need to have much better data so almost everything comes back to you know especially in enterprise lots of data spread out in a bunch of places how do you actually get it together know what you Make sure it's high quality and relevant and recent because that's the other thing that's happening. Data that you had from 6

2:56:16

Data that you had from 6 months ago may no longer be valid right now.

2:56:20

So, how do you make tell the system what's valid, what's recent?

2:56:22

That's where we spend a lot of time on and I think enterprises spend a lot of time on figuring out like how do we actually make these agents work?

2:56:28

And it's a different problem than it is for like general um consumer search. >> Yeah.

2:56:35

>> What is uh what's your software buying framework these days? Huh?

2:56:39

>> What do you >> what do you >> like what do you decide like what when when you're evaluating hey we there's a job to be done or should we should we go and find a vendor that can do this?

2:56:48

Should we do it ourselves?

2:56:48

How do you what's what's your line?

2:56:52

>> Yeah, look I know that the cool thing is to say this following.

2:56:55

It's like guys why would we buy software anymore?

2:56:56

Like you can just v code everything.

2:56:58

I think anybody who says that generally is not in the business of actually using software and production for most like >> it's like build is easy maintaining and sustaining it is hard.

2:57:08

I think um the short answer is in a world if I can I much rather buy and build right like that's just the reality of it.

2:57:16

Um the the problem though is you need you have such unique needs right now and so if I look at it and see that the gap between what I can get off the shelf and what I need is really huge then I have to look at do I really want to depend on another vendor um for kind of being able to like how business critical is it for me.

2:57:37

So, as an example, much of the things that we're doing to overhaul field engineering at data bricks to say, how do we use AI to accelerate it, there's nothing off the shelf that gives us what we need there, right?

2:57:48

If there's a piece, I'll use it as a component, but we have to go build it because for me, it's like I'm iterating really, really fast to figure out what the job to be done is, how to deliver it.

2:57:56

So, we have our own development team.

2:57:57

But on other things like my CRM or something like that, that is not something that if I can help it, I'm looking to build internally.

2:58:03

Like, I'm happy to use something externally.

2:58:06

um given that I imagine my needs are similar to many other ones and there should be things that could meet that needs pretty quickly. >> Yeah.

2:58:12

How big is uh AI agent adoption broadly?

2:58:16

I I want to know the details or the high level of the 2026 state of AI agents and specifically like how much of this is like yes they check the box we're using agents but it's just a test or it's very narrow or it's the one vibe coding intern that builds some fun workflow that's like yeah it's a bot it replied it's it's agentic but it's not the core business.

2:58:36

Uh talk to me about the roll out and adoption of AI agents in real enterprises real businesses.

2:58:43

Yeah, and I know I'm supposed to give like the party line and the popular thing, but look, [laughter] uh, I think you can look that report that you cited talks about something like 95% of people still have a hard time getting it in production or at least getting value out of it the way that they wanted.

2:58:55

I I think you have still an element of people who are like beating their chest.

2:59:01

You go like, I have a thousand agents out and I'm like, okay, how much how many people use them?

2:59:05

And they're like, why does that matter?

2:59:06

I was like, [laughter] why does anything else matter? Right. Um, >> yeah.

2:59:10

It's the same thing as like bragging. Yeah.

2:59:11

CEO bragging about headcount and it's like, "Wait, what's your revenue per employee?"

2:59:15

They're like, "30 grand."

2:59:16

You're like, "Okay, maybe maybe you're focusing on the wrong thing." >> Yeah. Yeah.

2:59:22

>> Well, look, I I look, so I think that there's everybody we talk to is trying to and there's some statistics you saw in there that make sense.

2:59:27

Like most people are no longer doing like, "Hey, let me get a chatbot."

2:59:30

It's like multi- aent orchestration, right?

2:59:32

Like they're using multiple things.

2:59:34

Second, >> nobody is wedded to models anymore.

2:59:36

I think like 77% of our customers use multiple models as well to pull it together.

2:59:42

Um and I think that the most popular use case is um you know beyond internal use case something called like market intelligence.

2:59:48

So like how do I figure out what my customers are doing?

2:59:51

What's the next best action I should take and the like.

2:59:52

take and the like. Um I do think it's still early like most people um like it's rare to see somebody say I have a lot of agents in production really effectively as I mentioned the most the place where we spend a lot of time on is how do you govern it and get security how do you get really really high quality out of it how do you balance cost and quality and that's where like

3:00:13

our whole offering around agent bricks is mainly around how do you actually get this thing in production um and so early days we're seeing we're seeing at least people turn from I spun up a chat GP PT interface I have AI to like what's the ROI I can drive from it and realizing what are the blocking factors data or some of the things I talked about to get there. uh given given your experience at

3:00:32

uh given given your experience at McKenzie, there's been some news recently that uh Enthropics working with I believe Accenture uh OpenAI is hiring consultants internally.

3:00:43

Obviously, the big consulting firms want to get in on the action.

3:00:47

They've been doing a good job making money on generative AI, maybe making more profit than a lot of companies.

3:00:52

[laughter] Um but uh when when you think about swarms of consultants going out into the world to unlock the power of agents like what are you going to be looking for to see uh kind of their success?

3:01:09

Look, one, I think we've gone through these iterations before and um in general, one, I I'm hardressed to believe that every enterprise is going to all of a sudden have an army of their own really, really effective vibe coders, right, that are going to build everything themselves.

3:01:24

I think that there's still going to be the dependence on external parties to help make something real.

3:01:28

something real. Um I do think that there is a element that the SI firms right now are trying to figure out how do they reinvent themselves a non-trivial number of what it was before was um how do I do some more let's say a little bit more of a commoditized task where

3:01:46

>> SI is software integrator >> oh sorry system integrator sorry like when you think about the asentures the TCS the cognizants and the stuff >> um you know so it's like how do I throw a lot of people to do it I think the expectation from people now is going to be great. I'm going to hire you, but in

3:02:00

I'm going to hire you, but in the ele element of AI, I expect you to be able to do things faster and I also expect to be able to get out of more uh out of each of the individuals.

3:02:08

So, one, go build applications for me, two, do it faster, and three, you know, your cost, your economics should be better.

3:02:14

So, I think that there's going to be a push on doing things like that.

3:02:17

But otherwise, we're still going to need um Worlds of Folks.

3:02:21

They're also trying to figure out how do they expand their like teams with like many many more agents that can work faster.

3:02:28

So, it's more of a shift in the model than economics, but you will still need consulting organizations to help.

3:02:35

>> Well, thank you so much for taking the time.

3:02:36

Jordy, do you have anything else?

3:02:37

>> No, great to meet you.

3:02:37

Come back come back on more this year.

3:02:39

The really helpful context.

3:02:42

>> It's uh Yeah, you guys have such insane visibility into how >> uh into the at real diffusion.

3:02:45

So, it's >> or we can just wait a week. We can wait a week. It's a new day.

3:02:50

Yeah, it's going to change in a week.

3:02:53

Changing pointed watershed moment every hour.

3:02:57

>> Every hour of every day.

3:02:58

>> We'll we'll chat with you about it.

3:02:58

Have a great rest of your day. Great to meet you. Thanks for coming on.

3:03:02

>> We'll talk to you soon.

3:03:04

>> Let me tell you about Label Box, RL Environments, voice robotics, evals, and expert human data.

3:03:08

Labelbox is the data factory behind the world's leading AI teams.

3:03:12

We got a bunch of breaking news show out with. >> Breaking news.

3:03:17

Hobbit inspired startup becomes first new bank greenlighted 2. 0.

3:03:23

One of the most insane headlines. Boom.

3:03:27

That one is for Trevor Palmer and the whole team.

3:03:31

>> Arabore founder Palmer Lucky was one of the tech industry's early Trump supporters and he's known for pension for Hawaiian shirts.

3:03:36

They're really focusing on Palmer's like non-banking relationships here.

3:03:41

[laughter] >> Palmer is a banker now. everyone.

3:03:44

>> Uh, Arabore will will cater to startups and high- net worth individuals on Friday.

3:03:48

Uh, it became the first newly created bank to receive a national charter under the second Trump administration, launching with $635 million in capital.

3:03:56

It says it will occupy a hole in the market left by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

3:04:00

Um, the bank is the brainchild of Palmer Lucky, one of the tech uh industry's early supporters of Donald Trump.

3:04:06

Its founders include its funders include Lux Capital and Horwitz 8VC.

3:04:10

Uh Allah Gil and founders fund is lined up a handful of potential defense and industrial tech focused clients including ones with ties of teal and other investors who say they are eager to do business with a bank that understands their needs.

3:04:24

>> You can think of us like a farmers bank for tech said Lucky who will serve on Airborg's board but will not have an operating role.

3:04:31

I think most farmers banks won't claim they are the best bankers in the world, but they do understand farmers.

3:04:38

[laughter] Uh Chris P in here.

3:04:40

Uh he said, "Is a lo is a local bank going to lend against you?" No.

3:04:45

He said, "If uh if you have less than $10 million in revenue and you're struggling to secure a loan from a traditional bank, investor expectations are high."

3:04:53

Arabore was valued at about $2 billion in a funding round last year, over seven times its book value according to investor pitch deck.

3:05:00

a subsequent round uh valued airbor at four billion.

3:05:04

So off to the races, >> the timeline, the pace from the team getting this done.

3:05:08

Obviously there's, you know, the regulatory side, but there's actually the execution to get here.

3:05:14

I remember talking to Trevor uh last year, uh Trevor over at Airborline and I was like, "Yeah, that's sounds great.

3:05:23

Like let's see, let's see how it actually turns out."

3:05:25

And >> uh that you know, incredible pace.

3:05:27

So >> yeah, we'll have to have Paul on the show to talk more about it.

3:05:32

>> Real bank, >> we have another we have another gong hit for Jennifer Garner's Once Upon a Farm. >> IPOed today.

3:05:40

Shares popped 17% in public market debut.

3:05:43

It's on the New York Stock Exchange, baby. >> There we go.

3:05:50

>> Interesting how I wonder how they uh priced it. >> Yes.

3:05:54

Uh so they raised almost $200 million, $197.

3:05:55

9 at a valuation of $724 million.

3:06:01

Um and uh the company's IPO comes as shoppers and policy makers alike have pushed back on ultrarocessed foods, particularly when consumed by children.

3:06:12

Uh so it's on the New York Stock Exchange now under the ticker OFRM.

3:06:15

Cavoo Venture Partners, Consumer Partners, Cavoo Consumer Partners, uh was a big uh backer of this company and probably has done quite well in this IPO.

3:06:25

And also, Techno Chief had a little bit of an update here.

3:06:28

Super random, but Kavu Consumer Partners just raised a new $325 million fund for better >> good timing. Hit it again.

3:06:37

>> So, congrats over there.

3:06:42

Uh, he's been investing in the category, worked on vitamin water.

3:06:47

He's an absolute dog and an industry legend and we're happy to see success in this industry. Certainly AI resistant.

3:06:55

It feels like something uh Tyler won't get out of bed for.

3:06:58

He's he's [laughter] knocking it.

3:06:59

But uh you know certainly opportunity.

3:07:03

>> No, I mean in a post scarcity world every every child in the world could be >> enjoying a fun day at the New York Stock Exchange for everyone.

3:07:13

>> Do we have anything else? Um, not not too much.

3:07:17

Uh, there's a bunch of stuff.

3:07:20

Uh, I think we went through most of this stuff.

3:07:22

There's there's new data from ramp rarian shares the fastest growing companies on ramp.

3:07:27

AI infrastructure means open source is likely ticking up.

3:07:30

AI dev tools are not going away.

3:07:30

And AEO is the future of marketing.

3:07:33

He calls that try profound.

3:07:35

So ramp's top software vendors the fastest growing.

3:07:40

were anthropic lovable cursor 11 labs superbase uh replet interesting uh cursor has been seeing like some there's a bunch of FUD on the timeline people are saying I don't need it anymore but it's still growing according to ramp um little bit of a narrative violation there and then uh trending breakout

3:07:55

growth relative to size paper for software design cerebras for AI infrastructure juicebox for recruiting AI runear for AI infrastructure clarify for AI infrastructure nova I AI for AI infrastructure crew Brusso for AI infrastructure, modal for AI infrastructure and then uh peak AI for SEO and AEO intelligence and also profound. So this is from the ramp

3:08:16

So this is from the ramp economics lab ramp. com/data.

3:08:18

You can go check it out for yourself.

3:08:21

We love chat chatting with Ara about what you see.

3:08:25

>> Well uh it was a brutal week for tech.

3:08:29

>> But uh at least we had an opportunity to put on the white suits and I can't wait for Sunday to see the ads.

3:08:34