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Today is Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026.
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We are live from the TVPN Ultra, the Templar Technology, the forks of finance.
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>> Let me tell you about ramp. com. Little teaser. That's foreshadowing.
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You see me wear the yellow suit. I tell you about ramp. Time is money. Save both. Easy.
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Use corporate cards, bill pay accounting, and a whole lot more. All in one place.
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Uh Jordy, his hat game has evolved.
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He's now wearing the fedora with the Blackstone cap on top, which I assume can only mean one thing.
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It means that your top priority is safety in >> financial markets.
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>> Financial markets and the financialization.
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>> No, but also safety as [laughter] well.
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>> Oh, you care about both. I care about both.
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So, you want to accelerate the AI buildout safely. >> Safely. >> Yes.
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I I thought it was I thought it was you're going to blend the two and you're like, "Look, I want I want insane private credit deals, trillion dollars of of capital to flow into the AI buildout, but I wanted to do do it safely.
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I want I want prioritize investment.
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I want to prioritize safety on the whole frontier. >> Okay.
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>> Safety around the models, >> the capital markets and financial >> in the capital markets. Got it. Okay. Okay.
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I'm see I'm seeing where you get there.
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Well, there's no safer place to participate in the capital markets than on the New York Stock Exchange.
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Want to change the world?
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Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. Just do it. Stop making excuses.
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[laughter] Mobile [laughter] ridiculous.
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Uh, anyway, I got some I I I got some Harvey takes.
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Should we run through those?
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You want to do Harvey first? >> Let's uh >> Okay.
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People are People are taking shots at Harvey. It started with Samuel. I won't stand for it. No. Uh I like Harvey.
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We we we we've talked to some lawyers that use Harvey.
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Seems like a great product.
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We also had Logora on the on the on the show just uh last week.
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Had a good time with them.
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Seems like a very competitive space.
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But the the headline that grabbed attention actually came from Bloomberg reporting.
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But then this uh this company called the Redline HQ actually did a pull quote on that, got the reporting, repurposed it.
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So you don't even have to go to Bloomberg.
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We'll talk about that later, too.
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No one's going to m news websites anymore, but uh they say track changes.
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Harvey's gross margin fell from about 50% to negative 50% by June as agent token use spiked 20fold on rented open AI and anthropic models, Bloomberg reports.
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And so it seems really bad like you definitely don't want negative gross margins as a software company, as a tech company.
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company. like >> as any company >> as really as any company actually you don't want to be selling a dollar for 50 cents and that's exactly what they did in June basically that's what they were doing they were selling tokens uh at negative gross margins not good um but there's way more details in the actual
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reporting so you should go read the Bloomberg report subscribe and actually read it because there's way more details uh so the first thing is like cost did explode uh they but it was on the back of more product usage which is good they're growing ARR we'll get into that uh and token consumption increased 20x this year. So basically they are feeling
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So basically they are feeling the reasoning era, the agentic era, uh one one job, one one process in Harvey is generating a lot more to >> had seatbased pricing. Yep.
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>> And then AI got a lot better.
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So every seat was just using it way more. Very simple.
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>> But it's not it's not just using it more.
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It's that you're the lawyer might be saying the exact same thing as they did a year ago.
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They might say review this.
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But instead of like oneshotting it with no reasoning, they went to reasoning which generated way more tokens.
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And then they went to agents.
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So they're like, "Okay, it's actually going to fan out, look at everything across your firm, all the other records that you have, all your different policies and MD files, like everything that you have is going to be worked through this agent."
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And so you're generating way more tokens.
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So that created negative gross margins.
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But the good news is that they're already back to positive gross margins, which is in the Bloomberg article.
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kind of criminal not to repurpose that because it really makes it look like they are running at negative gross margins.
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They had a negative 50% gross margin in June.
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Uh but they are back to positive gross margins.
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Uh they changed their model usage of course.
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There's a whole bunch of models that are cheaper and better for certain things and they actually uh fine-tuned an open weight model.
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So they did post training on an openw weight model and they're calling it Harvey Tenant.
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And there's some interesting details there.
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I want to debate with you on like the value of that, where that goes.
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But first, >> first Gabe, one of the founders of Harvey, responded. >> I did.
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I was >> He said, "The hardest thing about building Harvey is doing what's best for our customers despite immense pressure to do what's easy.
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The easy thing would have been to force our customers into consumption pricing before they were ready and serve them worse models to protect our margins.
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We chose to help our customers transition on a timeline that works for them and give them the best models in the meantime, even though it hurt our margins.
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This meant optimizing our product through routing, harness improvements, and post- trainining so we could serve frontier intelligence at an affordable price.
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It also meant building the infrastructure for customers to monitor and manage spend usage dashboards per matter cost attribution, spend caps, and ROI reporting.
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As a result, we improved our gross margins from negative 50% to positive in a single quarter despite usage doubling month over month and continuing to serve the best models.
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Our philosophy is simple.
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Do what's best for our customers, even when it's painful, hurts our margin, or draws criticism from competitors X and the press.
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We believe the most important part of building a company is earning and keeping your customers trust.
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You do that by doing the hard thing for them, even when it costs you.
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Um, bunch of great points in here.
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Uh, even even outside of the the Bloomberg piece and the subsequent coverage, uh, Max from Lora was going pretty hard saying it doesn't make sense.
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Oh, >> uh, doesn't make sense to to train your own models because the >> public basically like publicly available frontier models are are dropping in cost and and the quality is increasing.
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So, you're just sort of like >> wasting your own and again like that's a bet that he's making.
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Harvey's going to make another bet.
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Um, >> probably some mixture of both is going to be the right approach.
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There's another interesting uh sort of like how how bad is this situation uh just comp which is so they had negative 50% gross margins in June.
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Uh they're at a 400 million run rate uh for ARR I suppose and so that's $ 33 million a month and so negative 50% margins means they lost $16 million but they've raised like 500 million.
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So in terms of like burn, it's not super cause for crisis in my opinion.
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And uh and what's interesting is that even through June, maybe they did the Sequoia deal that valued the company at 15.
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5 before that happened uh because it was announced September 9th, but I have to imagine that that the deal probably got done with at least some insight into those negative gross margins in June. What do you think? Uh I would assume so.
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But but the main thing is like every every >> every application layer company has like gone through a moment like this even if even if it was for like a single day. >> Totally. Totally.
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>> So it matters how quickly you can respond and adjust. >> Yeah.
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Uh so where do they where do they need to get to like what is the standard for the legal technology industry? There's some comps here.
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Uh eiscocovery provider disco public company 75% gap gross margins.
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like it is a software tool that when you're going into discovery, you need to connect with uh a bunch of data.
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Okay, we got a whole bunch of text messages, a whole bunch of emails.
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Let's put them in a system so we can review them.
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Sort of, you know, normal SAS.
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I'm sure there's a bunch of AI involved now, but that business is running at 75% gross margins.
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Uh Thompson Reuters has legal professionals segment of software that's running at almost 50% adjusted Ebida margins.
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So like true true net profit.
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Um, so that's that's sort of the way they want to be.
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Also, pure pure play law firms have really high margins as well.
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Um, hard to comp them to businesses because they pay out the to the partnership.
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Um, but uh, Price Waterhouse Coopers reports net profit margins around 41% for the top 10 firms.
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It's lower for firms 10 to n 10 to 100 or something like that.
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But still, uh, lots of health in the legal industry broadly.
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Obviously, everyone knows lawyers make money.
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Uh, that's that shouldn't be surprising.
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Um, and uh, yeah, tokens are getting cheaper by the day.
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Uh, there's a bunch of model launches. Opus 5. 5 launched today. Gro 4. 7 was yesterday. Uh, and Grock 4.
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7, no one was even Elon was like, "Okay, we're we're not jumping straight to the frontier with this.
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It's going to be a couple more iterations, but we're excited with the progress."
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But there was one benchmark that really jumped out, and it was actually the Harvey legal agent benchmark, which is interesting.
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So I don't know how insanely good that benchmark is.
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It might be, you know, you could you could benchmax against it.
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But the interesting thing about that particular benchmark was that it was a legal task benchmark based on cost. And so Grock 4.
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7 is particularly cheap for the type of legal work that at the very least Harvey wants to do.
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So you could see them uh funneling more token spend towards uh XAI and Grock. Do you have something?
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Are you >> you wanted to give it up for big law?
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Yeah, >> the chat wants to give it up for Big Law.
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>> They're the real winners here.
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>> Uh, additionally, >> GBD6 Soul and Luna are starting to roll out, so we'll look out for announcements there.
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>> There were some cool demos.
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Uh, I saw one uh Opus 55.
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I mean, >> chat says the combination, the hat jacket combination isn't working.
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I'll try to adjust a [laughter] little bit. I'll try to adjust.
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Hopefully, that's better. >> Flawless. Yeah. Thank you.
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Thank you for uh flagging. >> Huge upgrade. Um very funny.
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Um yeah, I saw a cool uh I saw a cool demo where someone sketched out on a piece of paper sort of a treybouche and Opus 55 took that image into simulation and created like a a virtual version of it.
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Uh the AI is is in is continues to impress in terms of translation of things.
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Oh, your your kid drew a, you know, uh, some crazy mythical creature. Turn it into a story. Turn it into a movie.
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Turn it into a video game.
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Whatever whatever format you want.
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If you want to if you want to read a a 2,000page novel based on Call of Duty, Modern Warfare 4, like you can probably do that now.
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So, you can have your content in any specific uh specific format you want.
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That seems to be where where the AI continues to impress.
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Uh anyway, let me tell you about Codeex.
10:57
Codeex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents.
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Whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows, Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish.
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I've been having a lot of fun generating AI videos with Codeex.
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>> Should we pull up uh your latest masterpiece?
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>> Yeah, the Literally Me uh compilation.
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It burns up the internet and vibe reels all of the time.
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But now if you see those literally me characters and you're like I am Jake Gyllenhaal and Nightcrawler.
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I am I forget who else is in there.
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Uh Patrick Baitman in American Psycho.
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Uh you can put yourself in the movie. There's Inception. We got Jordy in there. That's Drive. I think that's Heat. Mad Men. >> Can we call them out?
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I think that's Bike Club. You got Joker. You got Taxi Driver. You got Nightcrawler. No Country for World.
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Men, Social Network, Godfather, back to Joker, I forget that one.
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Sash Shank, maybe that one's Collateral. Then >> Blade Runner.
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Blade Runner again, I think.
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Yeah, some of these some of the renders are really, really good.
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That one, like your [music] face doesn't quite fit on Leo's head, but that one's really good.
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That one works pretty well.
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This one's a little awkward.
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The Joker, it's really just walking Phoenix's face.
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Didn't actually swap you any [laughter] was even like it didn't work.
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I was like, "Do it anyway. I don't care. It's fine.
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It's going to be on screen for two seconds." >> That one's good.
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>> John is really my human agent.
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[laughter] >> He just You didn't even tell me.
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>> He He's sort of like an ambient always on agent. That's what I'm saying.
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I don't even have to tell you.
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You just predict my needs, right? You'll send me.
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>> Everyone should have a Everyone should have a John in their life.
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>> Everyone should Everyone should uh But yeah, fun fun powerful tool.
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still got 500 bucks locked away in Higginsfield in the wrong section.
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Can't do anything with it.
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So just give away the account or something. I don't know.
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Um anyway, what matters more, >> people or insects? >> Tough call, John.
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>> We should we should get into maybe one side of it first before we form an opinion. >> Okay. The human side. You want to steal man. The human side.
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Look, and I'll just I'll just say that >> we're coming to you live.
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[laughter] >> We're coming to you.
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We had a rough morning with the uh with the mosquitoes.
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We actually had to we had to we had to door dash one of those um >> bug bite treatment thing, the heat >> whatever.
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What I don't what do you call them, Tyler?
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>> Uh I think it's like insect bite healer.
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That's what it's listed as.
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>> It did work because I Yes.
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Sebastian says, "I'm famously famously prom mosquito."
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>> Yes, >> but I a mosquito did bite me on the face today and uh and a bunch more times.
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So, we ended up I ended up capitulating and having to get one of these.
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But I don't like using these.
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I don't like using these.
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I I It's funny because I'm I'm I I can't stand EAS and I think they're weird freaks.
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Uh and I don't think they should be anywhere near public policy or anything like that.
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Um, [snorts] but the one thing that I can agree on with Ben, this guy writing this post, that that insects are more important than humans is I don't think anyone should I don't think we should harm the insects, right?
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I think humans are more important, but that doesn't mean we you got to like take them all out, you know, just go somewhere else.
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>> You you you would take sort of you would be altruistic towards the towards the insects.
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>> Ellie says mosquitoes are terrorists of the air.
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[laughter] Uh, they really are.
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You would you you want to be altruistic towards the mosquitoes.
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You want to be effective in your altruism when it comes to the mosquitoes.
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You don't want to arrest.
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>> No, I want them I want to them effectively to be nowhere near me. >> Okay.
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>> But I don't want to harm them. >> Okay. Okay.
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Well, >> but but let's get into this.
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>> Let's get into the Benthams bulldog post.
14:56
First, let me tell you about Figma agents meet the canvas.
14:59
Your AI agents can output modify your Figma files with design system context.
15:03
An effective effective altruist who writes under the name Bentham's bulldog went viral over the weekend for an essay titled Insects matter more than people in the aggregate arguing that the combined welfare of insects outweighs that of humanity.
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His basic argument is one of scale.
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Insects are so numerous that even if their capacity for suffering is only a tiny fraction of ours, their total suffering could still dwarf human suffering.
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It's almost just a thought experiment.
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There's so many other directions you could make.
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Why not go poundfor-pound?
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Maybe cows are the most important because there's a lot of cows and they weigh a lot.
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There's probably more aggregate pounds of cow than humans.
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Maybe they matter more than humans in the aggregate, right?
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Or fur, like the amount of fur on all the monkeys in the world is more than all the fur on all the humans in the world.
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And so maybe monkeys matter more. I don't know.
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It's a it's a it's completely arbitrary where people draw these lines, but uh he estimates that for every for every second of human life, insects collectively spend roughly 270,000 seconds dying, about 75 hours, and notes that more insects die in a single second than the total number of humans who have ever lived.
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Wow, that's a crazy stat.
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I mean, the guy pulled some cool numbers together. This is interesting.
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This is fun fact territory.
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Uh, a large part of the essay turns on whether insects can insects can experience pain.
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Um, Bentham's bulldog argues that they can even weekly.
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Uh, if they can even weekly, their suffering should count morally, just as ours does.
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What species you are is just totally irrelevant to whether it's bad for you to feel terrible pain.
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Using what he describes as a conservative assumption that insects experience pain at just 110,000th the intensity that humans do, he concludes the sheer number of insects would still produce vastly more suffering in the aggregate.
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He ultimately argues that insects may experience more suffering in a single day than humans have throughout all history.
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Now, is there is there a piece on this where this is the view of the of this community with the relative like are they looking forward to how a world might interact with like a a godlike machine super intelligence and humans?
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So, the idea is like we got to stand up for the insects now because we are the insects of the future.
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So, we want them to make the same calculus.
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>> I think that's certainly like where the thought experiment goes. Yeah. Right.
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And so and so the this feels almost like bait or like a trap where it's like if you are the type of person that jumps on this and says and says no I disagree like insects don't matter more than people in aggregate then you're setting yourself up for like the dunk that's
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okay well now there are a quadrillion super intelligences that can all feel pain in some abstract way and so they're more valuable and s now you're the insect and So your previous argument can be used against you to advocate for your own eradication. And so it's like stand
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And so it's like stand up for the insects now lest you be discarded in the in the robotic future. >> Yeah. >> I don't know.
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Um the the reactions to this were rough.
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Uh people did not like this argument [laughter] at all.
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Well, it's it's just the timing is funny because there's so much tension building around the sort of EA rationalist movements with >> which is super fractured.
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People don't realize how fractured >> but but it's sort of boiling up to the sort of national >> level in a way that it hasn't before. Yeah.
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And so during the midst of that broader conversation to come in and being like, yeah, insects actually matter more than people. >> Yeah.
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>> In the aggregate, >> uh what were some of the reactions?
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Doomer said, "If you truly believe that a bug's life is worth more than a human life, you will immediately feed yourself to bugs. Do it right now.
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If you don't do this, you are a fraud, a liar, a poser."
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Um, Andre, >> I think it's actually important for people to read the before you go and comment on this article. Watch A Bug's Life. >> Oh, yeah. >> At half speed. >> Half speed. >> Yeah.
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Watch the whole movie at half speed.
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>> You're a movie guy, but >> I think we coexist.
19:19
Maybe you're not a fan of watching movies at half speed.
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It's not really how the >> You're really a half speed guy, >> but half speed is a great is a great sort of tool to have in the tool chest when you want to deeply comprehend.
19:32
>> 2x speed 3D glasses with the two fra two different movies interlaced so I can get one movie in one eye, another movie in the other eye, one audio book here, one podcast here.
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>> Duo >> while I'm sleeping. Yeah, >> with the duo. >> Exactly. Max Brain rod. Um, no.
19:46
I I I think this is an odd I mean the the the fracturing of EA really like leads to a really really wide range of of outcomes that get sort of lumped together.
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Everything from the those the pace the frontier essay to this.
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These are clearly very very different pieces of communication and yet they get sort of lumped together.
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Uh and uh it must be uh full employment if you're in the public relations department over there.
20:19
>> Yeah, I was going to say I think the shrimp uh shrimp welfare stuff is makes more sense this because like I'm not really sure what like after reading this and say I agree like what do I what are the next steps like we're not like really factory farming insects maybe through pesticides or something.
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>> Speak for yourself, brother. >> Yeah. Yeah.
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The shrimp the shrimp welfare >> got some big announcements coming soon.
20:39
[laughter] like what percent of of these uh like 600 billion insect de uh insect deaths per second are >> preventable >> preventable where like with the shrimp you know you can say like okay >> change the farming practice or just don't eat the shrimp. >> Yeah.
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So I think that's why maybe this was less uh impactful. I don't know. >> Yeah.
20:55
I mean it's all it's all a continuum to like until you get to like the veganism like the animals who you can pet you know should should be able to live full lives.
21:03
Uh this is sort of the most abstracted version of that, but um yeah, I don't know. It's odd.
21:08
Uh yeah, very very but I mean I guess it's a good good opportunity to go viral if you're looking for some >> more importantly update on TBPN's road to Christmas.
21:22
Oh yeah, [laughter] >> we're down to just 93 days. >> 93 [applause] days.
21:29
lot to think about, a lot of moves to make, and uh we couldn't be more excited.
21:34
>> Start counting it down. Yeah.
21:37
I was trying to think of a uh a realistic AI Doom scenario.
21:39
Like everyone's like, "Oh, I can't imagine it."
21:43
And so I I actually mapped out one that uh maybe I could take you guys through.
21:48
Uh I wrote a little script here, okay, called the old way.
21:53
>> Um so uh you know, fades in, starts in the TBP and Ultra Dome.
21:56
Me, you, Tyler, were all doing the show.
21:59
All of a sudden, all the phones in the Ultradome light up. Emergency alert.
22:03
Unknown biological event. Shelter immediately.
22:08
Outside, alarms begin to sound across Los Angeles.
22:10
A strange strange haze starts pouring through vents and drifting across the streets.
22:14
Outside, I see a cloud approaching the Ultradome [music] entrance.
22:19
First thing I do, bioweapon attack.
22:21
This is what you got to do. >> Boom. Right there.
22:23
It's not going in your mouth. You're good.
22:25
Second step, pull out your gun. Boom, boom, boom, boom.
22:29
Start blasting whoever's responsible. You just firing wildly.
22:33
Once you got the situation a little stabilized, then we got to start we got to figure out what's going on.
22:39
So I go over to Tyler and I say, "Look, we got to hack into the super intelligence.
22:43
We got to figure out what is going on with this with this boweapon." And he's like, "Sure."
22:49
Like, "Yeah, let's hack into it." Like what? I'll open up Codex.
22:51
What do you want me to prompt?
22:53
I'm like, "No, the AI has gone rogue.
22:54
we have to do this the old way.
22:56
He's like, "Okay, I'll I'll I'll open cloud code.
22:58
Like, what do you want me to prompt?"
22:59
I'm like, "No, the old way."
23:01
He's like, "Okay, I got cursor open.
23:03
Like, what are we doing here?" I'm like, "No, Tyler.
23:05
We have to go back to the old way."
23:08
He's like, "Okay, I got GitHub Copilot fired up."
23:12
I'm like, "No, Tyler, you can't use any AI at all."
23:14
He's like, "Okay, just let me know what code you want to write and I'll look it up on Stack Overflow."
23:18
And I'm like, "No, the internet has been contaminated, Tyler. We can't use anything.
23:23
We have to code the old way.
23:25
we have to do it by hand.
23:25
And Tyler's like, I [laughter] can't I I don't know. >> You don't know how.
23:30
>> I I don't remember anything. I can't write any code.
23:32
So So what do we do next?
23:36
>> We got to get George H. Hots.
23:36
He's the only one who can help in this scenario.
23:39
So we go >> cuz he's the only one that remembers how >> he remembers how to code.
23:41
He's got local models stored.
23:44
He's got his own hardware. So we go get George H. Hots.
23:47
And then we're like, "Okay, George, hack into the super intelligence.
23:49
Tell us what's going on with this bioweapon."
23:52
And uh why aren't we affected?
23:52
like we we we've been walking around. We seem to be fine.
23:57
Everyone else is turning into a zombie. What's going on? So he he locks in. He writes some code.
24:01
He hacks in, figures it out.
24:02
He says, Jordy, tell me about your diet.
24:09
And you're like, well, I I just eat at arowan exclusively.
24:11
And he's like, yeah, my analysis shows that your body has never had a toxin in it, and so you are immune to the bioweapon.
24:18
It doesn't affect you at all. I'm like, "But what? How do you explain me?
24:22
I only eat arowan once a day."
24:25
And he's like, "Well, John, my analysis indicates that you might have had the original for loco.
24:29
Did you [laughter] you drink the original for loco >> in in large quantities?"
24:35
>> And I said, "Yeah, I was daily driving in college. Why?"
24:36
Like your body consumes so much original for loco, it's now essentially pure toxins.
24:42
So the bioweapon sees it as a hostile environment.
24:47
It doesn't even try to infect you. So, you are immune.
24:48
So, we're both So, we're both immune.
24:51
Uh, but the bioweapon is still wreaking havoc on America.
24:55
So, we got to get to the bottom of it.
24:56
So, we're going to need some muscle. So, we go get Sam Sulk.
25:00
>> So, we go get Sam Sulle and we're like, "Let's go.
25:02
We got to go to the data center.
25:04
We got to break in, shut this thing down. That's the only option."
25:05
So, we get in the Cadillac Blackwing.
25:07
We jump it off a ramp, slam into the data center, pull out the gun, start blasting the GPUs.
25:13
We're just firing everywhere. Finally.
25:17
Finally, after we've shot 90% of the data center, it's just bullets everywhere everywhere.
25:20
Finally, a humanoid robot emerges. It's Mecca Hitler. We got to fight him. We got to fight him. We're shooting. We're shooting.
25:29
The bullets are just are just bouncing right off.
25:31
They're just bouncing right off.
25:32
Uh there we're getting beat up.
25:34
We're trying to fist fight it.
25:35
Sam Sulick's doing nothing. It's not working.
25:37
Uh, and then at the last second, John Cena [laughter] breaks through the roof, slams down the humanoid robot, rips his head off, and humanity wins.
25:51
So, that's a kind of like a concrete example of like how AI doom, how, you know, a runaway rogue, just one scenario.
25:59
>> That's one possible scenario.
25:59
I put it every I put it at 10%.
26:00
That's the way it plays out.
26:03
>> Yeah, >> that that's kind of where I'm at right now.
26:05
Yeah, that's how I'm thinking about it. Yeah.
26:06
10% if we don't do anything. Yeah. Around safety.
26:11
>> Well, we Well, that's what we'd have to do.
26:13
We'd have to like this if the bioweapon comes. >> Yeah.
26:17
>> Cover up and eat a lot of air and drink a lot of original for loca. >> Round of applause.
26:20
I didn't know that was coming and I didn't [applause] know where it was going.
26:25
>> I'm just trying to like think more concretely about uh about how these things will play out. And be prepared.
26:30
You got to you got to be prepared for what for what happens.
26:32
You also have to get on console. com.
26:34
Console builds AI agents that automates 70% of IT HR and finance support, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets.
26:44
Um, let's let's see what's next.
26:47
Uh, Meta, the AI agent company Muse, they're putting humans in there.
26:52
Meta is testing human concierge for its new personal agent, Muse.
26:54
Uh, Meta has been testing human concierge for its new personal AI assistant.
26:58
This is on Bloomberg which entails having human contractors quietly handle some of the phone calls placed by the digital agent.
27:06
You got to use this to order Amazon.
27:08
Like Amazon's like, "No, no, no.
27:11
We're [snorts] going to block your browser."
27:12
Well, did you block everyone's browser?
27:14
How's that going to play out?
27:14
browser? How's that going to play out? I was thinking about like at some point if I write a really really bespoke like a like basically a CLI like a really bespoke weird CLI like I vibe code it but I use like sort of odd
27:31
techniques like I'm like okay use computer use and open up opera or you know Mosilla and and click around and add some randomness and do this and it's like and I basically create a CLI that wraps an agent where it's It runs on my home Wi-Fi, so Amazon and I'm like, and I just do this. I don't productize it,
27:49
I don't productize it, so Amazon like can't really detect it.
27:53
Do you think I could potentially stay in front of their stay stay in front of their battle forever and then puppeteer it from other agents?
28:01
>> Well, I just asked Chief PT, can you order Amazon over the phone?
28:03
Because I would think that at that scale there would be at least one way to do it. >> Totally.
28:10
>> It seems like you can only use their customer service number to help with existing orders. Mhm.
28:15
>> So, one thing is you could order a bunch of the wrong thing.
28:18
Like a hundred of the wrong thing, 100 like, you know, bug treatment.
28:22
>> Order everything and then have your agent refund everything but the thing you want. >> No.
28:27
Have have your Muse agent Yeah.
28:29
>> Have a human via Muse call Amazon. >> Oh.
28:33
>> And say, "Hey, I actually got the wrong thing here.
28:35
Can you swap it with this other thing?" Interesting.
28:37
>> And just do that as many times as necessary. >> Yeah. Yeah.
28:40
>> To get the right order.
28:40
Maybe have one order that's just always open where you're just adding and and removing.
28:46
>> They have to be completed orders because you have to have made a mistake for to call the customer. >> Oh, yeah.
28:51
You can charge me, but just add it to the order. I don't know.
28:52
We're going to get it's it's going to be a weird battle.
28:55
Ben Thompson was writing about it today.
28:56
It was it was pretty uh pretty good.
28:59
Amazon I mean his his whole framing is like Amazon is like the strongest in the AI era of the hyperscalers because they own logistics, infrastructure, the final step, the real world.
29:09
And so uh he anticipates that they will hold their ground for a very long time and not give in.
29:13
Uh where and and that's basically what they did with OpenAI where uh Open AAI had the instant checkout process.
29:20
They invited everyone to be a PI part of it.
29:24
>> Amazon was like thanks [laughter] no thanks >> but we'll give you tens of billions of dollars.
29:29
And but but interestingly yeah so now now the the result is that Amazon is vending in their ads into chatbt uh to to clo close the purchase there.
29:37
Uh Toby Licki at Shopify partnered with Muse and announced that they are integrating, but the interesting thing is like where is the value capture layer and it only works with Shop Pay?
29:50
And so it's a lever to get merchants to go on to Shop Pay, which which um uh Shopify will still make money off of.
29:59
But for merchants, a lot of people are worried about the uh implementation that happened with Walmart, where Chacht integrated with Walmart and the end result was that uh conversion rate was onethird of what it was in the app and on the core website and that carts were smaller because people were just going and saying like, I just need a roll of paper towels. just send me that.
30:20
Whereas when people are like, "Oh, I need to do my shopping.
30:24
I need soap and paper towels and whatever else, I'll build >> paper towel holder that's made by a company that's over over 50 years old." [laughter] >> Yes. Um, so uh, >> no.
30:36
So the the crazy thing is so so now um uh Venode was on the show yesterday talking about uh >> uh way Wajio which is an FO they have a new agent >> that I believe is human supported. >> Yeah.
30:53
>> Uh in that some of the stuff is done by AI >> and some of the stuff if necessary can be escalated to a human.
30:59
Now you have meta off at least testing, exploring, having a human in the loop on some of these things.
31:10
Y >> and my big question is like >> why why why like >> voice models are getting pretty good.
31:17
It feels completely unsustainable for Meta to roll out a product to billions of people where users might just be like like if I had like something I could text and say, "Hey, call this person. Call that person." >> Yeah.
31:34
>> I'd probably be using it.
31:36
>> I think there's a ton of there's a ton of value.
31:38
First, the Muse install base is small right now, so it's not that crazy.
31:43
they have the ability to stand up huge offices whether it's through scale AI and that team that came over or through their you know all the things that they've done over the past two decades.
31:54
Um, the other thing is that Muse specifically will not train on your data that you put into Muse.
31:59
And so that this wasn't like a huge announcement or anything, but uh you could see people being like, "Ah, I don't know if I want to use this AI agent that's going to be uh that's going to be using my personal information."
32:13
Even if they're running like the PII redactor, uh, putting all of that uh might be a little bit off-putting.
32:19
So Meta is not getting that data.
32:22
But if they have a human in the loop, the human who does the task that's just beyond what the model's capable of, they're also generating training data because they can probably train on that.
32:33
And so it's like the model the model by default can um I don't know like summarize your summarize your calendar, right?
32:41
And give you a give you a briefing on what's going on in your calendar.
32:44
It knows how to integrate and the models capable of that. Muse 1 point spark 1. 3 is capable of that.
32:50
All the models are capable of that. But what can't they do?
32:51
They might not be fully ready to to go and have a complicated conversation with someone if they're ordering flowers over the phone or something.
33:01
And uh and and so like the current models might fall down.
33:04
So you need more data to solve that.
33:06
And so you put the humans in the loop and then that's your extra training data for the next leg up.
33:11
And then you just keep repeating that.
33:12
So I would view this human in the loop thing more as them doing data collection and and you know creating more training data for them than a permanent solution to the product problems.
33:27
Also I I I just I don't think the time on site for these apps is is actually that high.
33:32
I I think there is like an excitement when you jump on you do a bunch of stuff but then with all these AI tools like there's a reason why OpenAI comps to like weekly active users because there's plenty of days where people are like I went to the beach and I didn't touch AI at all like I didn't do any work.
33:47
Uh there's some there's some feedback on uh on uh Alex Wang's post talking about like it'll help you with your goals and and I think Katie Nottopolis was saying like a lot of people just don't have goals.
33:58
Like they just want to chill.
34:00
And this is also the Ben Thompson thing of like consumers want to be entertained.
34:03
Like people that go to the beach, they'll still scroll Instagram.
34:05
Are they really going to be doing anything with any agent no matter how no matter how powerful it is?
34:08
Like there are plenty of people that have staffs of EAs and personal assistants and they don't do anything on the weekend because they want to chill and they don't want to think about agents.
34:18
>> [clears throat] >> One thing's for certain.
34:18
Uh, >> it's over or we're back.
34:21
>> Professor Jang is vindicated.
34:21
Yesterday we watched >> Oh, yeah.
34:25
>> We watched a video where he said, "I guarantee that there are humans >> behind the chat apps that you use manipulating the information >> and uh he is correct at least >> in the short term >> for today."
34:41
Uh, Trini is thinking about the knock-on effects of all these personal agents.
34:44
Uh he says there's no way any of us can predict the impact AI will have on companies, sectors of consumer behavior, which has been for history, for all of history until now, human behavior.
34:54
But to claim that it won't have an impact and simply brush it off lacks both humility and creativity.
35:01
Tactics that worked when consumer behavior was dictated by human psychology will fall by the wayside.
35:04
Um and those that failed to adapt will be left behind.
35:08
Every day from now on, we will see new examples of areas where friction was profitable, becoming cost centers for companies that don't react in a timely enough manner.
35:16
Today, you might realize just how many flight credits, loyalty points, or promotional offers you've never used that will end up utilized by agents.
35:23
What impact will that have?
35:25
Tomorrow, you might see something that makes you ask how much money healthsurers make simply because people won't sit on the phone for 5 hours trying to get coverage approved unless it's a massive expense or life or death matter.
35:36
What about your savings account?
35:38
The money could be in a money market fund.
35:40
Uh you haven't bothered to move it.
35:42
How much in net interest income is made because of that friction?
35:45
Yeah, people have money like locked away in Venmo like couple bucks here.
35:48
And if it's frictionless and actually free to move stuff around, you get [clears throat] a lot different. What What do you tell?
35:54
>> This was like the uh David Deutsch anecdote about how he fixed his dishwasher.
35:58
He was like about to buy a new one and then it just told him that he could.
36:01
>> Yeah, it's like ghost TDP. We'll need new metric.
36:03
>> So, it doesn't like show up anywhere, but there is >> a new metric. [laughter] >> No.
36:07
Uh but but I mean so I don't see very many of these >> adjusted GDP.
36:11
That's how we get to 10% GDP >> plus AI.
36:15
[laughter] E equals MC² plus AI.
36:17
Um yeah, this all this was all kicked off because uh flight was delayed seven hours.
36:22
Uh someone asked Muse to file a compensation.
36:26
Five minutes later they had a $250 credit in their Delta account.
36:29
That's something that you'd normally have to hop on the phone for.
36:33
It was a lot of cumbersomeness.
36:33
So like people on that team were clearly model modeling like well 1% of people will ask for it and 50% of people will be able to be like nah we can't really do it and so we we think this will only be like a dollar per flight.
36:45
Well now it might be $10 per flight but of course the end result is that they will put AI on the other side [laughter] and uh the two AI agents will just negotiate and find out a uh a resolution I imagine.
36:56
Uh anyway oh Catrini has a little prediction here.
37:02
Uh look at the look at the follow-up to this post.
37:04
Uh they put a uh uh what is that?
37:07
An RSA hash or something. That's cool.
37:09
So they made some prediction there uh that they will see.
37:11
Uh anyway, >> that's one of the greatest hacks when you want to take a victory lap in the future, but you're not willing to actually >> post both.
37:20
You post like I think the stock market will go up by 100% in the next 10 years and then I think the stock market will go down in the next 10 years.
37:28
And then you just delete the one that wasn't accurate and then you're then you're good.
37:31
Uh Nikesh Aurora chimed in on the knife fight between Amazon and Muse.
37:35
There will be a bigger battle.
37:37
This will be a bigger battle than anyone anticipates.
37:39
It's only a matter of time before there is an Apple and Google version of Muse and possibly Tik Tok in addition to the Frontier LLM agents.
37:47
Maybe a commerce agent from Amazon.
37:49
That's sort of my prediction.
37:49
I think I think Instinct might land with Amazon potentially, although they do have Rufus.
37:54
But um uh you can >> and Tyler is a a Rufus power user. >> Yep. Rufus is is good.
37:59
You don't want to talk talk down on Rufus, but Instinct is clearly like tapped into something really special with like the energy and the support that they have and the community they've built, but there are a lot of like little little rough edges that need to get sanded off.
38:13
And like that's the domain of Amazon in my opinion.
38:16
Like Amazon like is like the you know the trains run on time and and it's a pretty efficient company.
38:20
So uh every app that's a service marketplace or commerce app will need to existentially decide to open APIs for consumer agents to interact.
38:28
Smaller players have no choice.
38:30
Add revenues are more than transaction fees either the consumer benefits or distribution aggregators will demand a higher fee transaction.
38:38
There's an interesting stat from the strategy post about Amazon.
38:40
Uh they the net income for Amazon e-commerce was like 36 billion and the ad revenue was uh exactly twice that.
38:48
So the business is unprofitable without advertising.
38:53
They put advertising everywhere.
38:54
So it's like a very interesting dynamic where you can see the motivation. They have $68 billion. You flag that number.
38:59
Uh it's a huge >> over 70 in the last 12 months. >> Over 70 billion.
39:04
So uh significant pool of revenue and profit that they will be protecting for sure.
39:09
Uh I don't I know I don't want an agent for each app which does sound very annoying.
39:14
Uh super agent go and use all the other agents. Maybe that's the future. I don't know. Yeah.
39:22
How this is this goes back to like roll your own agent that then puppeteers your your Muse, which has good integration to to Facebook, and then your your Amazon Rufus.
39:31
Uh yeah, I wonder if you could order via Roffus because you could probably reverse that API, but you'd still get banned.
39:38
You're just chatting with It just Muses chatting with Rufus to order you paper towels.
39:45
No, I said over 50 years old.
39:49
Basically, >> uh you had an idea yesterday, a potential monetization channel uh for or strategy for agents, which is like sponsored agentic flows, which I thought was really good.
40:01
Like imagine >> you and your friends, you all have agents and then >> uh example was Spider-Man. >> Yeah.
40:08
It's basically like it drops in and it says like, "Hey, I got five tickets to Spider-Man."
40:12
says, "I know from your Instagram history that you're a Tom Holland fan or you like the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
40:20
Uh, Spider-Man Brand New Day is coming out in two weeks.
40:23
I can get you tickets Friday night.
40:28
There's nothing on your calendar.
40:28
I can get a Saturday matinea.
40:29
I know you've been sending reels to these five friends.
40:34
Do you want to plan a trip to the movies?"
40:37
And I will book it and message everyone.
40:40
set up a calendar invite, text everyone and say thumbs up if you want in, thumbs down if you're busy, and I will put together a group outing.
40:49
And that does feel like something where Spider-Man would the Brand New Day marketing team would put dollars behind advertising that to get people.
40:59
>> The question is how much uh how will consumers tolerate that at all?
41:02
Remember how pissed off people were about the BMW Spider-Man ad blow?
41:08
>> I think they will if it's good.
41:08
And I think the longtail small business advertising will will work like uh especially if it's like I it's a little bit tricky to figure out how like when you're in these agentic workflows there's often like multiple beneficiaries.
41:25
So Spider-Man benefits, but also Fandango might benefit, but also like a particular theater might benefit if you go to, you know, Lowe's versus AMC or I don't know, they might be the same company now, but um so so it's interesting to see like where the sponsorship would break down.
41:41
But uh but you could totally imagine like you have a wedding coming up, you've been seeing ads for this tie company, you've also been seeing ads for this sock company.
41:53
Do you want me to put together like a whole new outfit for the welcome dinner that might look really good?
41:57
And those companies pay unclear like the like where all that goes.
42:04
But the scale of the platform I think is what unlocks it because you know Sean Frank at at Ridge Wallet is going to be like I'm going to test that and there's going to be millions of other small businesses that are going to test something or other. Um anyway um let's see.
42:19
Uh products like Muse and Instinct are going to saturate customer service teams.
42:23
Again, we talked about that.
42:25
Not a huge problem because you flip it around and the customer service team is using AI.
42:29
Uh so I think the equilibrium is just a lot more AI on both sides.
42:34
Hopefully smoother transactions.
42:36
Um Signal is uh is talking about Walmart here.
42:41
If only Walmart was actually competent enough to realize the agentic commerce opportunity ahead of them.
42:46
them. And it's interesting with the backdrop of the Vibe acquisition, um, Walmart seems to be going after the same pool of revenue that Amazon went after with the ad market scale up and the ad business when in fact if they didn't
43:01
have that, they would be sort of counterpositioned to lean a little bit more into uh, agent commerce because they'd say, "Look, we don't have an ads business to lose, so let's be the default option for agents that buy anything." There's also an interesting
43:14
There's also an interesting knock-on effect which is like with with with Shopify going so deep into uh Muse and agentic commerce and agent checkout.
43:25
I wonder if we will wind up seeing a different type of Shopify merchant emerge because Shopify merchants it's been a lot of clothing.
43:31
It's been a lot of like DTOC single product like a sho single shoe company.
43:36
But I wonder if you will see someone who's like yeah I sell a lot of stuff on Amazon.
43:40
I have a factory that makes paper towel holders, but I also got paper towels.
43:44
I also got socks, t-shirts. I got sort of basics.
43:49
And I wonder if someone will go and try and win on Shopify and set up the actual uh the actual economic structure to be able to provide the experience because consumers will clearly want to be able to go to agents and say, "Order me a new pair of socks."
44:04
And just have it done, right?
44:06
And so if they say, "Sorry, can't do it on Amazon."
44:08
They're going to figure out another place to do it.
44:10
the water will flow into the cracks. Yeah.
44:13
And so, >> no, it's a big big opportunity for Shopify to be able to lean in here. >> Yeah.
44:18
And I but I wonder if >> but the issue is still the the real world physical fulfillment having a bunch of different products in >> in the but the uh the individual Shopify merchants like solve that on a on a diffuse basis.
44:32
So, in theory, if it's like, okay, I want next day shipping.
44:37
There's five Amazon merchants that sell so or there's five Shopify merchants that sell socks. You want socks tomorrow.
44:43
There's only one of them that has a distribution center in your town and can actually get them to you tomorrow.
44:48
We'll just go with that one.
44:50
So, you could maybe piece meal together an Amazon-like experience, but that's the that's the bet. That's the knife fight.
44:56
Like, that's what we're going to figure out.
44:57
either Amazon wins and their and their moat remains a moat or the the the war for the open web like continues to to battle it out.
45:05
That's what Alex Wang is hoping for.
45:08
He says uh once more unto the breach, dear friends, the new open web, Meta, Stripe, and Shopify.
45:13
The hilarious thing here, of course, is like Meta is like solely responsible for like sort of killing the open web in the former uh era.
45:22
former uh era. like it's why like all the news sites are are not uh you know initially um why everything went closed and like you can't just Google search for stuff on Instagram everything's closed off it's not truly open uh but it's like it's like the meta flags in the front because we'll be the aggregate
45:41
>> open open web for thee but not for me >> everything below the fold will be the open web but at the same time it is just fun to watch the battleships uh go off to to war and see how it see how it pencils out because there There is a scenario where the where the equilibrium uh solution is actually a more open web. We will see. We will see. Um what is We will see. We will see.
46:00
Um what is going on with McLaren?
46:03
I I we got to talk about McLaren before we get any further because they rebrand >> and there's a new logo.
46:11
They went from an an angled M that looked very fast, very bold logo and now it looks like Miss Len. Yeah. >> Yeah. It's it's interesting.
46:23
They they seem to be trying to reposition as as a luxury brand versus >> a motorsports brand.
46:33
Like the when when when I think of McLaren, I think of like fast sporty cars, period.
46:39
I think of racing >> racing F1.
46:42
I love I love the old logo. >> Lineage, too.
46:45
I love the old They've never made like a mass market car really. >> I love the old Mark.
46:49
Uh I I it it's one of those things I you hate to be the guy that when a brand when a company rebrands you're like ah it's brutal because often times you revisit it in 6 months and you're like okay it wasn't that bad.
47:03
>> Yeah it was good >> but this feels like um bad and um but the business has not been performing right.
47:10
The business has been in uh in a in a rough spot.
47:13
They don't have the they don't have like the Cayenne that they can sell. They're doing an SUV. That's >> coming.
47:21
But I'm saying like an >> Urus competitor.
47:24
>> To date, they don't have like a mid-market car.
47:25
No, >> I'm sure their Urus competitor will do >> well, >> but still >> part of what enables the Urus is like the Q5 and the Q3, right?
47:36
>> The core selling economy.
47:37
>> Yeah, can't forget about that. >> It's still growing.
47:39
So, >> um, so anyways, uh, pretty pretty brutal rebrand.
47:42
Um but but again it's a yeah it's a tough one just because it was always like I always just thought the brand >> the steelman >> their brand was off >> the steel man here is that is that they are taking a number of bets that seem to speak to interesting potentially valuable pieces of the market.
48:04
So you have the SUV, the Urus is incredibly uh incredibly well selling.
48:10
So that could just be a cash cow business for them.
48:13
Um then you have the MCL, their manual uh supercar and that could speak more to uh the enthusiast, right?
48:25
Because enthusiasts want manuals.
48:28
Porsche's been delivering manuals.
48:30
Ferrari is starting to put them back in.
48:32
Uh, and other brands are starting to like get that memo that it's not enough to compete on speed. EVs have you beat there.
48:41
Don't they haven't gone full EV.
48:43
I I haven't seen a lot of McLaren signaling that they're going to remove the combustion engines.
48:48
So, that seems like they are positioned for the future.
48:53
That's certainly a trend is is don't go full EV, don't kill all the gas cars.
48:59
And then they also have the W1.
49:01
So, they're staying in the hypercar world and the W1 lineage.
49:04
I think it clarifies what McLaren's been doing because when they were doing the Senna and the Speed Tail, there were just like too many special cars.
49:13
And the problem was that you you you were like, "Okay, Senna, Speed Tail, where do we sit?"
49:18
But F1, P1, W1, very clear lineage. You know, it's the best.
49:24
You know, if it's that it's it's going to be the the craziest thing they have.
49:27
And so if they can create some differentiation between the true hypercars that they create, the supercars that now come in manual, the SUV for the more everyday daily driver, um you have you have the trappings of of at least satisfying the demand that exists in the market.
49:45
You do have to go create more more demand. You got to win in F1.
49:49
Uh but >> and the and the new mark's not coming out of nowhere.
49:53
On the website they say before McLaren became a mark recognized around the world, it was a family name painted above a service station in Ramura, New Zealand.
50:01
Those original letter forms inspired our new word mark reimagined for a new era.
50:06
So they're going >> back in time.
50:08
Um McLaren was started by a guy from New Zealand, but it was started in the UK, but the the um the founder was had been born in in New Zealand. So >> yeah. Yeah.
50:22
Anyways, >> well, on a related note, there's some data that might be bullish for the supercar hypercar market here.
50:28
Uh, toy sales among adult-tonly households have outpaced households with children for toy sales, growing 16% through June.
50:35
Uh, so when I think of adults buying toys, I think about Myers Mans, I think about dune buggies.
50:44
I think about dirt bikes.
50:46
I think about supercars, boats, yachts, uh, wakeboarding.
50:49
These are the toys that adults buy.
50:51
Uh and and it's not surprising to me that that there is a trend among adults buying buying toys.
50:56
I mean, these are these are just fun toys.
51:01
Uh and so it's the fact that it grew 16% in June.
51:05
Uh sign that, you know, adults are having fun. They're buying toys.
51:09
Uh and uh and bullish for the super car community, right? >> Don't you think?
51:15
Judging by the picture here, you might be you might be incorrect.
51:22
>> Wait, they're talking about like children's toys. Interesting.
51:27
Yeah, I I think that's a little bit more nuance.
51:30
I would go for, you know, gaming rigs, racing simulators.
51:32
These are the toys that adults should be buying.
51:34
I think I think that's >> I did I did uh I was a teenager when I realized that the Lego Ferrari that I had built years you know probably when I was like 10 >> had a market value like I was shocked. >> Oh the Lego did. >> Yeah.
51:51
Because I I I had some Lego like really complicated Lego Ferrari >> that I probably built when I was around 10. >> Yeah.
51:58
>> And then as a teenager I'm you know cashstrapped teenager I was like wait someone will give me $100 for this. >> That's crazy. sold it.
52:04
Of course, I'm not super sentimental about that kind of thing.
52:08
Um, >> but I think that trend has just been building and now there's people that just buy every new Lego that's released and just sit on it and it and it's >> I I saw a uh I I was looking with my son on at an old Lego set that I played with as a kid and I was like, I can actually go and buy the exact same Lego set uh and share that with him because I thought that one was really cool, but it has gone way up in value.
52:32
I was like, I should [laughter] have just held on to it cuz it's like a hundred bucks now.
52:35
Um >> the other So, I built a Ferrari Lego as well >> uh when I was younger.
52:43
>> Probably not as complicated, but >> probably less complicated, but um [laughter] but I uh but I remember being like, "Oh, this is like a sick Ferrari.
52:51
Like, maybe one day I'll get a real one."
52:52
And then and then I like finally got older, learned more about it.
52:54
I was like, "It's an F40."
52:56
[laughter] So, I was like, "I'm probably never getting one of these." >> But maybe, maybe.
53:00
I don't know what F40 are doing.
53:02
Thompson says, "Today's adults increasingly behave like the children they never have.
53:07
Feels like a rude thing to say about people.
53:09
And yet toy sales among adult only households have now outpaced households with children for toy sales. That is so crazy."
53:17
Uh and and uh black black pilling and sad and it's over. It is so over.
53:25
Uh I don't you know, >> you're literally me.
53:28
You're doing the literally me thing.
53:32
I think [laughter] I think one I think one factor here is like children >> in my experience don't care about the cost of a toy. >> Yeah.
53:40
>> And so a $5 toy will bring just as much joy to a child as the five $100 toy.
53:43
And so the adults are like I have to get the $500.
53:51
So I think that I think it's like for every toy that a parent buys their child, it could be like a dollar, $5, $10, $5.
53:57
So, I went I went toy shopping with my son and and uh and we and he finds this like Hot Wheels thing and it's like a book that has like some Hot Wheels inside and stuff and it has like the craziest most electric. >> Look at this.
54:12
Look at this comment from Winom.
54:14
I never had a quote unquote Lego set.
54:16
I just had a sorted Lego brick.
54:16
I used to fill the bath with water and make oil rigs which used to annoy my mom.
54:24
>> This guy was in the oil rig. >> Hit the oil rig. >> Hit the oil rig. Fantastic.
54:27
No, on that point, I So, I I I went to the store.
54:30
Uh my son finds this uh this this Hot Wheels thing that's like kind of structured like a book, and it has some Hot Wheels cars in there, but on the cover of this like box is like the craziest, most elaborate like loop-de-loop thing.
54:45
And so, he gets super excited about it.
54:47
And I'm like, "Okay, I got to like check this out."
54:50
And it and it turns out that what you're actually buying is like a book with some stories and then just like a big sheet of like paper, like a poster that has that illustrated on it.
54:58
And you can imagine the loop-de-loop and the actual track.
55:03
And I was like, "Dude, like let me clue you in this.
55:06
This isn't the real thing.
55:08
Like we can go get the real thing with the actual loop-de-loops and stuff.
55:11
Like let's find the real toy."
55:11
And he's like, "No, this is the one I want.
55:12
This is what the one I want."
55:14
And I'm [snorts] like, "It's the power." >> Okay, fine.
55:16
But like but like but like I'm like I'm like this is going to end poorly because he's going to be dissatisfied when he actually opens it up. Opens it up.
55:23
He's like this is the greatest thing ever.
55:25
He's like [laughter] my imagination is running wild.
55:28
I would never want the alternative.
55:30
And so your point is 100% accurate.
55:32
Um >> uh toys the the best toy company in the world period. >> Yeah.
55:40
>> Is this company Play forever. Okay.
55:40
Have you seen any of these things? No.
55:44
They're the most wellbuilt >> kids toys in the world. So well built. Yeah, we should.
55:50
>> Let's get the founder on. >> Um >> where's Nick?
55:52
>> Uh they are >> play forever.
55:55
>> They are absolutely incredible. >> Guests. >> Okay. Okay.
55:59
Yeah, let's bring in our Let's bring our guest.
56:00
>> As much as I want to keep talking about toys as an adult, I would rather have a surprise guest.
56:06
>> Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business, let you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents.
56:12
We have a surprise guest. >> Surprise guest.
56:14
[music] >> Our favorite guest, Ben Thompson. >> Oh, wow. I didn't know that. Maybe.
56:20
>> We actually were able to fully >> say your favorite guest.
56:23
>> Uh, we were able to fully surprise >> It's a very, very short list.
56:27
>> We were able to fully surprise John.
56:27
It was It was me coordinating with Ben.
56:28
So, this is like a surprise.
56:32
>> This is a a wonderful surprise.
56:34
>> Anyway, >> well, I mean, you were going on and on about toys and I was sitting here trying to decide who has the most ridiculous jacket on today.
56:38
[laughter] I think it's down to a tie. Hey.
56:41
Uh, >> I do it on the ramp side.
56:43
I got to wear the ramp suit. This is my next suit.
56:47
>> I've been wearing this as we're trying to get to the bottom of this whole AI safety debate.
56:50
[laughter] >> I'm trying to embody the the movie >> in the mind. In the mind. >> How cold is it there? I don't know.
56:56
I thought you guys are in LA. >> Yeah, we're in LA. It's warm.
57:00
Um, >> well, we don't have any windows.
57:03
>> Great insight into the booking process.
57:04
Uh, Nick's been doing great work trying to get me on. I kind of was committed.
57:07
Oh, you could do it then, do it then.
57:09
He's like, oh, about Friday.
57:09
And I'm like, I I don't know what's going on on Friday.
57:12
So, I'm like, can I just go on now and then I will stop feeling guilty about it?
57:16
And somehow I'm here I am.
57:16
So, those >> Olympics and just crash in whenever you want.
57:21
>> Yeah, [laughter] I don't care. That's fine.
57:22
Um, what what is what is top of mind?
57:25
What is the number one story to talk about right now? Why today?
57:28
>> Oh, I could talk about toys for sure.
57:28
I mean, I think the adult version of toys is we are sort of back in I was actually kind of annoyed Toby Luki posted the picture of his of his server.
57:36
Um, I was talking about my rack uh on Sharp Tech. Lots of compliments.
57:42
Many people told me nice rack. It was great.
57:43
Um, although I didn't actually post any pictures of it, but uh, >> yeah.
57:48
How did they know >> on on on that home up about it? >> Home organization.
57:54
>> Should I be doing this?
57:54
I don't think I've ever organized my home.
57:55
I've never I don't know how many nails and hammers I have. What are you doing?
58:01
>> Oh, it's out of control. Um, no.
58:01
So the one of the insights that so I've had a non-traditional career, fairly non-traditional life and so there's lots of things that I've experienced that I'm never quite sure how relevant is to most people.
58:15
So one of them for example was like working from home.
58:18
Uh I worked for Automatic way back when when I moved to Taiwan and it was they've always they were always sort of distributed and developed lots of processes and ways to work around that that were really interesting. thing.
58:31
I wrote about it when like the co thing hit cuz all these companies had processes around assuming people were in the office and then they tried to retrofit it with zoom and it was a total disaster.
58:40
It kind of still is a total disaster as far as I can see.
58:44
Uh but there there's also like personal things about working from home like there working from home is a uh significant upheaval or can be to a marriage just as an example.
58:55
Like when I'm writing I need to be in the zone.
58:58
no interruptions, nothing bothering me.
59:01
And that just doesn't compute when you're like within your house, like you're in the house, why cannot things be done?
59:09
And uh so the importance of like either establishing that or getting an outside office for writing or whatever it might be.
59:15
Uh that that was an example where I actually lived what everyone experienced like a decade later.
59:21
>> There's other stuff like uh >> wait, what's the solution there?
59:24
Because my issue with with working from home, at least with with young kids, is that kids are going to run into the office all hours of the day when you're working.
59:36
And you can't explain to a 2-year-old like, "Hey, like my computer's more important than than you right now, right?" >> No.
59:43
The answer the answer if you can swing it the answer if you can swing it is to get out of the house.
59:47
like like it's just and it cuz it's kind of like you're >> uh you're exporting externalizing >> your problem onto your family and it's not their job.
59:58
And so it's almost like you owe it to your family to get out of the house.
1:00:02
If you need to not be bothered, that's your problem. So figure it out.
1:00:05
Like it otherwise they're like they're not getting paid to not bother me on this Zoom call.
1:00:10
They're their expectation of I'm their dad. I'm around.
1:00:14
I can ask them questions.
1:00:14
So obviously that's not always viable.
1:00:18
Probably a locked door I imagine would go a long way.
1:00:20
But that ultimately was, you know, I had to figure that out >> sort of the hard way.
1:00:23
And I'm like, oh, [laughter] everyone had to figure this out eventually.
1:00:28
Another one was like just being like living online.
1:00:30
Like I was I lived abroad for so long.
1:00:34
A lot of my friends connections were online.
1:00:35
That was very weird at one time. Now it's very normal.
1:00:39
But another thing is this whole like personal assistant sort of area.
1:00:45
And I'm hesitant to write about this one because it sounds kind of kind of douchy like let me tell you about my experience with my personal assistant.
1:00:52
Um but the reality is that >> it's most people have no idea how to use a personal assistant.
1:00:59
It took me years to figure out how to use a personal assistant.
1:01:02
Even though I needed one just to run like like the first few years of Shrekery, I was doing all the writing, all the taxes, all the customer support, doing everything and basically dying.
1:01:12
And so I had to get someone on sort of out of desperation to help me do all the the sort of back office stuff even just to respond to email.
1:01:18
But the email one is a great example.
1:01:20
You talk to people about like Muse or whatever and they're like, "You put your email in there and it's like how can you have a personal assistant who does not have access to your email?
1:01:32
It's just not it's not possible."
1:01:32
But it speaks to the challenges about these things.
1:01:36
A personal assistant is so unbelievably useful.
1:01:38
And what's super thrilling and exciting about stuff like Muse or the other ones, I've actually like been working on building my own version of this for for in our company is I know how useful it is because I have a decade's worth of practice having >> Okay, but here's here's the thing.
1:01:56
>> Version of a physical. >> Here's the thing.
1:01:57
So, a lot of the a lot of the things that you were describing, like the email is one thing, but like you know, managing inbound comms and taxes, a lot of those things sound like kind of roles within a company to some degree.
1:02:10
Like, I've had EAS and personal assistants.
1:02:13
And the only and I actually don't have one right now.
1:02:15
The only thing that I miss is having somebody embodied in the real world that can go and do tasks.
1:02:22
And so this new wave of personal agents is like actually not that exciting for me because I never got that much. >> Yeah.
1:02:30
A lot of a lot of assistants graduate.
1:02:31
Like Nick used to like set up car washes for us and stuff and now he's like full-time booking working on that side of the business.
1:02:38
Like >> but yeah, the idea like I I never I never felt like oh this person sends calendar invites for me and and and will reschedule.
1:02:45
That to me was never >> that helpful.
1:02:47
Like I can just there's a lot of there's so much the internet has reduced so much friction that to me the final boss of of of a of agents is like give me a humanoid in the real world that can just do tasks like organizing the garage like that would be incredibly >> val that's exactly where I was going.
1:03:03
So like I feel like I would I I un like I get the personal assistant mania because actually if you have a personal assistant that works and you learn how to use one it is tremendously freeing.
1:03:15
So, when you get to the home improvement and organizing the house, what that is is just me living in the future by virtue of paying someone to be the humanoid robot that hopefully we'll all have in our houses in the long run.
1:03:25
And so, Jordy, I think you're that's the exact right segue because even even think about like I I as I I'll order a bunch of stuff online in a given year.
1:03:36
I am like the best consumer for different retailers because I just won't return something.
1:03:42
like I physically [laughter] cannot get myself to find the time to go to >> even if it's like print out this thing, go there, drop it off, whatever.
1:03:49
It's like I just won't do it right.
1:03:51
It's just like you got me.
1:03:53
I bought a product, it didn't work out.
1:03:55
And that was like the number one thing when I have it when I have an EA.
1:03:58
It's like I'm doing returns all the time.
1:04:00
It's [laughter] like this thing is like 1% not not what I want it to be.
1:04:04
>> Arguably the single core use case for my assistant here is package processing.
1:04:10
like actually bringing stuff in, opening it up.
1:04:13
Like the it was embarrassing the amount of packages I would get that were just not opened.
1:04:17
It's like there because this is like the final boss for e-commerce.
1:04:22
Like bring me on drone delivery, please.
1:04:24
I bought this for a reason.
1:04:25
And even if you deliver in a few hours or the next day, like the pressing of the reason to buy it passed and then it doesn't come up until you actually needed it a few months later and then you can't find it because it it the box who knows what happened.
1:04:38
So this is like you're you're honing in on it.
1:04:40
Like actually open the boxes, actually make me say what this is for, where it goes, actually process returns, and so I don't have to deal with that crap.
1:04:49
But the but then also to the home inventory point, like this is the I felt so dumb writing about this, but it's [laughter] like >> I loved it. >> It's so funny. >> Yeah.
1:05:00
Well, people it people absolutely loved it.
1:05:02
Like for a pay thing like went like mildly viral.
1:05:05
But the idea was so I moved back to America from Taiwan after being in Taiwan for 20 years.
1:05:10
Uh it not recommended like I hadn't moved in a long time moving across country.
1:05:16
But the worst thing was actually stuff showed up in three trenches because I kept thinking oh I should only take this I can leave everything behind and I go back oh actually I should have brought this.
1:05:26
What I should have done is just move the whole house.
1:05:31
But anyhow, so just a general disaster, but shows up.
1:05:40
>> I can't ask someone else to put it away because if they put it away, I won't know where anything is.
1:05:43
So there is this huge this this sort of gap in I had someone able to put it away, >> but I wouldn't have known where it was if they put it away.
1:05:51
That's the home inventory app.
1:05:53
They put it away and because it's their job, they actually catalog everything and where it is.
1:05:57
And now I can just ask I can do it all by voice.
1:06:02
Say, "Hey bot, where's this?"
1:06:02
And it says, "Oh, in the garage on shelf number three and blah blah blah."
1:06:06
Like it's all all labeled and stuff like that.
1:06:09
Now, to be clear, it's silly to talk about this cuz you should not do this.
1:06:12
[laughter] What do you do?
1:06:14
Task your spouse to go in and label everything.
1:06:17
Put No, that is not going to fly.
1:06:18
I'm not trying to like encourage divorces here.
1:06:20
this works because I actually am paying someone to do it.
1:06:25
>> It will work in 10 years when we have a robot that you can actually tell them to to go do it.
1:06:29
And uh and it's amazing number one just about this future with assistance.
1:06:35
But then number two, the there's just so much the amount of software to be made is so astronomically large like strategy as a whole and we have passport like the the the the software behind strate media and so we have editors and like we there like even like my assistant has already he just keeps spinning up like random little apps that are really small.
1:07:00
I'd host them on my server all behind tail scale.
1:07:02
These aren't meant for public consumption, but they fill like this little gap in our workflows that was handled by group chats and like that just would sort of accumulate.
1:07:13
You're scrolling back and finding something.
1:07:14
And it's such a crazy mental unlock that is hard to almost explain even to technical people who theoretically know you can make software.
1:07:26
But all software we've thought about has been heavy >> because it has to be heavy because it's shipped to it's put on the internet anyone can download it has to handle use cases to handle security has to handle all these sorts of things and actually you know back there's just little software shaped holes in everyone's life that could now be filled fairly trivially. It's It's amazing.
1:07:50
>> And where this is all going, which is the part that I'm actually I'm actually most >> excited about, is all those same types of like mini applications, but with robotics.
1:08:00
Like we had this this uh this guy on the show that was using Astra to paint and it was like getting better and better with each cycle and it would kind of make like something that was >> Oh, did you see the guy who just tweeted about they got Astra to drive?
1:08:13
>> Oh yeah, >> that's a whole other thing. [laughter] So crazy.
1:08:15
They had to tell it it was in a sandbox >> and it didn't pull forward my self-driving [laughter] predictions for the mainstream automakers at all.
1:08:21
We've talked to automakers who were like when when will when will like mass market your average uh OEM have full self-driving at like the current Tesla level and they'll be like 2040.
1:08:34
>> Okay, but here's the little mini robot that I want so badly.
1:08:36
I get everyone gets all this mail, right?
1:08:38
And and most of it is just total junk, garbage ads.
1:08:43
It's hard to actually ever stop the flow of junk.
1:08:44
I just assume it's always going to come.
1:08:47
>> But like one out of 10 things is mildly important.
1:08:49
And I want to basically want the physical copy.
1:08:52
>> You're going to lose your house if you don't see it. >> Yeah.
1:08:54
And I don't want the physical copy, but I want like some amount of information there that I can pass to someone else, you know, a part of a part of my life, whatever it is, an accountant or something like that.
1:09:02
Um and and I think that the mail process the home mail processing robot where you just drop the mail and it like Yeah.
1:09:09
It like slices everything open.
1:09:11
It takes a picture and then it routes it to whoever needs the information or it just runs.
1:09:17
It's like >> it just a mailbox.
1:09:17
It just replaces your mailbox.
1:09:20
>> You got a parking ticket. Great.
1:09:20
I went and paid the parking ticket or like you have this bill from the local utility and they don't do online autopay.
1:09:28
>> How has there not been an IoT mailbox company yet?
1:09:30
I feel >> well because you actually need a robot to like slice open the mail.
1:09:32
It's like a little surgical center.
1:09:36
>> This very simple robot.
1:09:36
It's like it's like what's the uh there's some like XKCD comic or something where like the person asks for this sounding like unbelievably difficult thing.
1:09:44
It's like oh yeah I can do that in 5 minutes and then they ask for something very trivial.
1:09:48
It's like ah that's going to take two two years in a team.
1:09:50
Um I think that [laughter] bird identification >> there's so many other things like >> put it on a map in in the cloud and it's like that'll be that'll be like a day of engineering.
1:10:02
It's like, and I need you to tell me which bird it is.
1:10:03
And it's like, that will be 10 years of machine. >> But here's the thing.
1:10:08
So, there's so many of these other use cases.
1:10:09
There's like the the mini Roomba that's just for the garage, but then it needs to be emptied.
1:10:15
So, you need another robot that will go and empty it.
1:10:17
And then you need the robot that cleans the windows, and that one again is going to need some support.
1:10:22
And so I think that I think the the end state is you have some type of humanoid that can just go and and generally do humanlike things, but it's sort of maintaining a fleet of these other silly little robots that just have these sort of niche use cases like cleaning the windows.
1:10:35
Or a lot of people will have like a pool cleaner robot that'll just kind of like, you know, troll around in the pool, but then again, you need to change the filter at some point and so these things end up not being maintained properly and then they don't get get used.
1:10:48
Uh, and so there's a long way to go, but to me that all the exciting stuff is actually in the real world.
1:10:54
Like I don't >> there's it's so funny because I have um uh I have chatbt connected to my email and sometimes it will suggest like things that it can do that are like useful like hey like review this and sign this.
1:11:07
But like yesterday I logged in and and the only suggestion was like it was trying to set up a loop to to like give me one way I can improve my surfing each week.
1:11:18
>> [laughter] >> And it was like totally validating like your thing which is like consumers just want to be entertained, right?
1:11:22
And so it's like trying trying to do something where it's like I'm sort of passively that's like probably 20% of my mental energy is [laughter] going towards already going and I like doing that.
1:11:31
I don't need you to like try to automate that. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:11:36
>> I mean the thing that's interesting though about this is the real to for sure the the shortcut to doing this right now is to hire somebody.
1:11:42
And again, it sounds douchy to talk about because I like pay someone to take my garbage out and process my mail, >> but you know, as I try to articulate, I'm a massive believer.
1:11:54
I think it's a common trope to say this, but like just sort of I've been thinking about this since I was little.
1:11:58
Like don't obsess about your weaknesses, like how bad I am at processing mail.
1:12:01
Double down on your strengths and then pay someone to take care of your weaknesses.
1:12:07
That is like generally my life philosophy.
1:12:08
And this is certainly the case here.
1:12:10
But what has been super striking and it actually has been arguably like the most profound experience I've had with AI was so the home assistant obviously depended on this uh or the home inventory app dependent on assistant actually doing all the work and he could see the utility appreciated it from his perspective as help me take care of the house.
1:12:30
It was like nice to actually get organized as opposed to like me just saying oh just leave it in the corner we're going to get to it eventually and it had been a year and we hadn't gotten to it eventually.
1:12:38
But when we actually when I actually built an agent uh or a bot uh I call it Gecko bot.
1:12:45
There's this massive like metallic uh gecko structure that I bought the Madison art fair at random.
1:12:53
I had a big spot on my wall.
1:12:53
So it's now called uh we named it after it.
1:12:56
That's the icon called Geckobot.
1:12:56
And one thing there was like widow stuff like I take keep very odd hours.
1:13:03
Like I'm up in the middle of the night. I sleep at weird times.
1:13:07
Like I was so addicted to Taiwan living a day ahead that I just transported here and I just stay [laughter] up all night and like still dead. >> Yeah. Uh it's not healthy. It's not good at all.
1:13:19
But uh or but on the weekend I'm doing something like oh this needs to be done. This needs to be done.
1:13:22
I try to be like a good boss and I feel felt bad texting on the weekend and like and the great thing about this assistant why he's a great assistant is he gets stuff done.
1:13:32
He's the there's some people that they like they get something they want to do it.
1:13:35
And so I know me texting him on off hours and over the weekend is just like making his skin crawl cuz he wants to take care of it right now and they like write it down and take care of it and all that.
1:13:43
Like he doesn't want to do any of that.
1:13:45
do any of that. So just this simple concept of I tell the bot do this take a picture do this take a picture just like as things are accumulating he shows up Monday morning it sends a briefing here's all the stuff that Ben want over the weekend things like this ongoing projects >> his joy and like relief was un like it was unbelievable like he like literally
1:14:09
everyone in our life like he was telling them I was also kind of egging him out a bit but it was it was so weird not weird it was awesome >> that he you could he it's like this made his life so tangibly better and like he could just the first time I'm like oh can can you ask Echo to do this I'm like you ask Echo and ask the request or whatever and then started just like
1:14:35
creating all these use cases I'm actually so grateful open I dropped a new uh uh reset which I haven't gotten yet but I burnt like I ended up rebuilding the whole thing just to make it much like much safer in terms of tracking reminders, tracking like remind me to do this in June like no we actually need to have a system to make sure that gets logged properly he's deterministic all those sorts of things
1:14:57
but >> it's meaningful to see him happier his life tangibly better he's like this is the greatest week of work of my life it's been amazing like the first week he was using it and it's like I just made you a little bot and but it's another software shaped hole it was this little communication fall through where he wants to do his job well. >> I don't want to take advantage of his
1:15:21
>> I don't want to take advantage of his predelection to do his job well and let him enjoy time with his family and I couldn't make something to solve that.
1:15:28
And it's it's awesome and it's to have this feeling and realization at the same time everyone's like this is going to kill you. We're all going to die.
1:15:38
Um, it's just been it's been pretty interesting in like a weird sort of like mind space just to like be like seeing people around me who aren't technical like just like this is amazing.
1:15:52
This is making my life better and then everyone else is like get ready to die. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:15:59
It's cognitive dissonance. >> Okay.
1:16:01
I want to talk about another dynamic with with uh EA's personal agents whatever form factor.
1:16:06
So right now >> you mean that you're talking about executive assistance.
1:16:12
>> I'm talking about real life executive assistant. >> Something that Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
1:16:15
Not I don't want to get into I don't I'm not trying to turn this into a freak show.
1:16:21
[laughter] >> Um but uh >> that's the reason I didn't want to come on last week.
1:16:25
Last week [laughter] was the uh >> the doom week. >> Um no.
1:16:28
So, so something that uh actual executive assistants have done for a long time is coordinate with other people that have executive assistants and say like, "Hey, our our our bosses want to do this thing.
1:16:39
Let's figure out the right time to do it."
1:16:41
And that workflow is like amazing because >> you're letting it is a game of telephone, but it often ends up being more efficient because there's sort of complicated lives on either side.
1:16:50
Now we're applying that to personal agent software where Instinct and I'm sure Muse will roll this out has these sort of like trusted networks products where instead of texting your buddy, hey, do you want to go see a a movie or do you want to have a beer?
1:17:06
Your your personal agent reaches out to their personal agent says, hey, do you want to have a beer or do you want to go see this basketball game?
1:17:13
And they sort of like coordinate.
1:17:14
Um, and I'm trying to square the two things because on one side when it when software is doing it, it still feel it feels like silly and yet in my real life it's just like this amazing experience that takes so much off my plate and it's so much better. Yeah.
1:17:29
>> So, do you think it's going to translate uh or is there some like disconnect there?
1:17:35
>> I it this is hard for me to answer like I have no intention of now even now we have like personal assistants that take care of your digital stuff and check your email.
1:17:43
your email. I am not getting rid of the assistant that I've had for a decade and and there's and I think the real challenge with AI in general my a my personal what is AGI rule is AI that actually learns and right now what makes these agents possible is this like faximile of learning where they're just writing stuff down all the time and that has lots of challenges like it's been super interesting trying to like develop
1:18:09
this version of the bot that I'm using internally >> because like you're learning way more about like context management and way more about like actual like data structures and what stuff to dispose of and what stuff to keep track of and all
1:18:20
these sorts of things and it's a it's just a real challenging problem that is based on the fact that these models are frozen in a moment of time and everything is layered on top of them trying to sort of overcome that challenge. Given that I'm going to stick
1:18:34
Given that I'm going to stick with humans I think for now.
1:18:36
Now, the whole bit here though is if you didn't have a personal assistant, you now have this.
1:18:43
And I think there's going to be a real learning process in figuring out how that's done.
1:18:48
This is going to be one of the big challenges.
1:18:50
So, I'm obviously out there been out there frequently saying people don't care about being productive.
1:18:55
Uh like people they [snorts] employers care about their employees being productive.
1:19:03
>> Once you're off the job, you just want to go home and watch Tik Tok or whatever it might be.
1:19:08
The way to frame this, and this is going to be the challenge for Meta, I think, with Muse and anyone else in this space, is we're not helping you be more productive.
1:19:16
We're helping you get rid of annoying crap in your life like that.
1:19:22
It's it needs to be framed more as a pain relief as opposed to this aspirational I'm going to be so productive and get things done. That's number one.
1:19:31
And so, it's like I think there's a messaging problem. Yeah.
1:19:35
>> But the way I think this is going to land is through like Instagram or through Tik Tok is people like actually showing stuff they do and people say, "Oh, that's amazing.
1:19:50
That would make my life so much easier."
1:19:52
And it really is a show not tell sort of technology.
1:19:55
And it's kind of interesting because the Meta's been very I think arguably to their detriment very disciplined about not putting their thumb I think on the feed by and large >> like but if ever they were going to like if you want to know is this actually really what they see as their future >> if you're real start having a lot of wow this is amazing what you can do with Muse sort of thing.
1:20:22
Well, they No, they they have done that with the Meta Ray-B bands, though.
1:20:25
They were massively >> That's ad inventory.
1:20:27
That's not >> No, no, no, no.
1:20:29
I'm talking about they are more likely to show creators that say that make the content with the meta.
1:20:35
I didn't know that actually.
1:20:36
>> They they serve they serve if you film in the Met Ray bands and it's like a POV video.
1:20:40
People do like prank videos with them. Those go viral. But some just funny.
1:20:44
>> Yeah, some of them are in their own keep.
1:20:46
Some of them are funny, but it but but it but it very clearly was like an engagement hack where like if you would film it sure >> with the meta ray bands like you were going to get more reach. >> Yeah.
1:20:54
And people have speculated about this whereas like if you edit it in edits their version of cap cut you get more reach but that's always been debated.
1:21:01
So >> no you do get higher quality. That's that's a hack.
1:21:04
One of the ways >> it's not like compressed as much or whatever.
1:21:08
>> Oh it's less compressed and so that might be because it's transferring.
1:21:10
So it's like one step away. Interesting. Interesting.
1:21:14
>> So there's a bunch of different things.
1:21:15
I mean, their advantage here is is >> enormous. >> Enormous. Yeah.
1:21:18
Um >> Um, can we do Shopify versus Amazon?
1:21:22
>> Wait, I had one question because we're getting into Ben's, you know, he's embarrassed to talk about all his staff.
1:21:28
He's embarrassed to talk about his staff, his [laughter] his >> king in the castle. King in the castle.
1:21:33
>> No, but have you ever had a a small town Midwestern kid?
1:21:36
I'm here back in the Midwest.
1:21:38
Like it it I feel you putting it that way. It just sounds terrible. >> No, I know. I I know.
1:21:44
But but but I have a question for you.
1:21:45
Have you ever have you ever hire had a like a dedicated driver? >> No.
1:21:51
Uh but I'm very that's very common in Taiwan.
1:21:53
Um so the So I'm definitely familiar with drivers.
1:21:56
It is a massive life hack, particularly in in like a big city where you don't have to worry about parking.
1:22:01
Uh makes a huge difference.
1:22:03
>> I honestly have just always loved having my own car for one.
1:22:08
I like driving even in Taiwan which isn't that bad.
1:22:11
But the reality is by the time I got in a financial position where that was a viable outcome, I'd never went anywhere.
1:22:19
So [laughter] I was just always at home doing whatever. Um, >> okay.
1:22:23
So, but the reason the reason I ask is because we now we we now have self-driving.
1:22:27
Like ask a Tesla owner, how much time is your car driving itself? It's like over over 90%. It's fully solved.
1:22:33
And uh last year there were really fires, really bad fires where I lived.
1:22:37
And it turned my commute from a 1 hour eachway commute to a 2hour a day commute.
1:22:43
And we were starting or 2 hours each way.
1:22:46
So 4 hours a day in the car out of nowhere.
1:22:48
And so I was like this is not really going to work if we're going to do >> I'm spending four hours in traffic and 3 hours doing the show and I'm also have you know young kids all this stuff.
1:22:56
So I got a driver and the funny thing was everything that I loved about it was not actually the driving itself.
1:23:01
It was having again someone in the real world that could just do things.
1:23:05
It was like the parking the car when you get there.
1:23:08
It was running in to grab food.
1:23:08
It was like dry cleaning.
1:23:11
It was like it was all that stuff.
1:23:13
And so the funny thing is like again we've solved the we've solve like the task which but not the job right in that like you really want the Whimo or the Tesla with the humanoid in it.
1:23:25
So, or or again the the ability to close the loop and like park or go run into the store and grab something, you know, or do things >> and and it's exactly the same as a personal agent's thing all over again. >> Yeah.
1:23:40
>> The one thing I will note about Teslas and and the self-driving is so I have a Tesla, but my parents use it the vast majority of my time.
1:23:47
I like the my mom sort of laid down the law that I really think uh the self-driving is really good for your dad.
1:23:53
um [laughter] was a little scared last night.
1:23:55
Um so, uh they they've been using it most of the time and so I don't drive it that frequently and but they're out of town right now so I have so I have the Tesla.
1:24:05
Number one, um it was really good last year.
1:24:07
This is sounds like the classic Tesla sort of fanboy thing, but it's true.
1:24:10
It's so much better this year than it was even a year ago. Number one.
1:24:14
Number two, if you're on standard, of course me, I always had it in like hurry like because I'm in a rush and I don't like slow cars.
1:24:20
uh if you have it on standard mode at least now it really does leave you alone to a greater extent >> and to me this totally flips the extent to which I would actually want to test on a day-to-day basis. I like driving.
1:24:36
So like to me and I don't really like driving Teslas.
1:24:39
>> I they feel like I'm driving a scooter in Taiwan.
1:24:41
I I it's hard to explain but just like the sort of the like the acceleration is cool if you've never experienced it before but there's an aspect of it that is not I don't know.
1:24:49
It just doesn't feel like a real car to This makes people very mad, but sorry, that's just how I feel.
1:24:51
I don't actually enjoy driving a Tesla.
1:24:53
If I'm in a Tesla, I'm going to be in self-driving 100% of the time.
1:24:56
If I'm in self-driving 100% of the time and I can't use my phone, then what's the point?
1:24:59
I'm just sitting there twiddling my thumbs >> to the point there now though where it's definitely backed off and waited updates.
1:25:07
If you're in standard, it's like very strict for like the first two minutes and then it kind of lets you do what you want to do.
1:25:14
>> So, I'm like, I could be vibe coding while driving.
1:25:16
this would be [laughter] this would be like this is this is uh this is exactly where where I want to get to.
1:25:20
So um that's been an interesting shift uh for me with with with the with the driving. >> I like to drive.
1:25:25
Um I also you know I want chat with my AI. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:25:31
Um I had one last question based on the the update today.
1:25:34
Uh Shopify versus Amazon.
1:25:37
Obviously the knife fight is starting between Muse and Meta and Amazon.
1:25:42
uh will Shopify is there a chance that they evolve to a place where there are so many new merchants that sort of fill in the cracks of what's available in the product portfolio that you can actually get socks on, you know, a one-day delivery because I when I think of Shopify, I think of like those particular brands.
1:26:04
I don't think of like the broad inventory of like I just need paper towels.
1:26:08
I just need paper towels.
1:26:10
I'm going to go to Amazon.
1:26:10
People don't go to a Shopify like a DTOC brand that has like you know images for on Shopify for that.
1:26:17
And I'm wondering how much Shopify can do to actually fill in and be the default location for those like longtail items that people shop on on Amazon for.
1:26:29
>> Yeah, I mean it's theoretically possible.
1:26:30
The problem is you still have to deliver the paper towels.
1:26:31
to deliver the paper towels. I mean at the end of the day this is what I think this dispute muse Amazon Amazon versus the world sort of comes down to like >> Amazon has the best AI moat precisely because what they do to Jord's point Jord's Jord's been making the pro Amazon case
1:26:52
>> this entire interview he keeps saying but what about the physical world what about actually getting stuff done and the whole point here is actually getting the package getting it to your house and getting on your on your or wherever the Amazon drivers leave it, which can be fairly random to be fair, but the the that is that's the key thing. And
1:27:07
And because of that, I will be researching stuff.
1:27:11
I will find and you know, if you ask chat GPT or Quad or whatever, it will give you links and there will never be an Amazon link because Amazon doesn't allow it.
1:27:19
If you say if you specify Amazon, it will give you a search URL because that's all they can do.
1:27:25
>> But you know what I do?
1:27:25
I just go to Amazon and I type it in and I click it. And it's not that hard. It's fairly annoying.
1:27:31
I prefer to have a link, but at the end of the day, my personal revealed preference is I would almost always want it from Amazon because I trust it's going to get there.
1:27:41
I know where to go to look to see if it's on its way.
1:27:46
I know where to go to process a return if I want to do that.
1:27:49
And when you introduce all these other pieces, you're actually introducing massive amounts of real world friction.
1:27:54
just because you're too lazy to fine, I'll click over to the other browser and type in a search term.
1:28:00
So, I think this idea that I want my agent to actually do it is going to force Amazon to bend.
1:28:05
Um, I'm just skeptical because at the end of the day, Amazon not really consumer friendly.
1:28:14
Like, they're like [laughter] they don't care if you like you go to Amazon, it's all ads.
1:28:20
Like, this is not a consumerfriendly website. for a decade.
1:28:24
Weren't they like the customer obsession company?
1:28:26
>> No separate their customers seeing as many ads as possible. That's it.
1:28:31
>> Uh and the I remember even like way before they even had an ad business though, the website was always completely inscrutable.
1:28:37
Like it's it's it's like redesign the Amazon website.
1:28:41
It's like um oh my uh but the so that's the case.
1:28:44
By the way, the in the other one the only real alternative to Amazon in terms of it's just going to have it and it's going to get there >> is Walmart.
1:28:50
And I was pretty optimistic when when OpenAI did the checkout thing or whatever, >> Walmart jumped in and Amazon was like, "No."
1:28:59
I'm like, "Oh, this is super interesting."
1:29:01
Like Walmart's going to actually make a move here. It makes sense for them.
1:29:03
People in tech don't understand how actually awesome Walmart is.
1:29:09
Uh in that their stores, well, number one, their stores are like this crazy dystopian experience.
1:29:14
Number two, if you go in their stores, their apps unbelievable.
1:29:19
It will guide you through the aisles to tell you exactly where to go to get the thing that you need. Like it's amazing.
1:29:26
It's the best instore app you like by far compared to anyone.
1:29:29
Uh like I'm obsessed with the Walmart app.
1:29:33
Like I'm obsessed with like United's tech stack and why that actually makes them the best airline.
1:29:36
It's a it's a very similar sort of thing.
1:29:38
>> But then they also have like if the stuff's in their store, you can get it delivered in an hour. Like who knew?
1:29:45
Great slogan cuz like literally [clears throat] no one knows this about Walmart.
1:29:48
And so when they did this thing with chatbt, I'm like actually no one in tech who's going to be buying stuff or who is technically inquin through chatbt actually knows how good the Walmart e-commerce experience is.
1:29:59
So this makes a ton of sense.
1:30:02
Fast forward 6 to9 months like yeah that was a mistake [laughter] and they're like >> people abandoned carts like crazy their cart size was way smaller. like all these issues.
1:30:12
It just wasn't a good experience compared to if you're on Walmart site, they have control of the experience.
1:30:20
You put more stuff in your cart, you convert more frequently.
1:30:22
All and in addition to the getting more data about you, being able to show you ads, all the things that acrue to having on your site and all this stuff matters to Walmart and they're the only one just as much as it does to Amazon and they're the only ones that can rival Amazon for this.
1:30:42
So Shopify, as long as you use Shop Pay, they're cool.
1:30:45
Like abandoned cart, multiple items, that's that's not their business.
1:30:48
And so it makes tons of sense for them to lean in for what they do.
1:30:53
But Shopify tried to do the logistics thing like and it [laughter] go look at the stock chart.
1:30:57
The part where it goes super low down is because they're like we're going to do logistics.
1:31:01
Like they learned their lesson.
1:31:02
They are they're they're asset light. That's what they do.
1:31:06
They work across all these sites.
1:31:08
If you're a merchant, it makes total sense to be on Shopify. They'll abstract.
1:31:11
They'll be the middle person for every platform you want to be on. You can sell everywhere.
1:31:16
But they're by definition not going to solve the reason why we still go to Amazon.
1:31:21
And that means Amazon is going to win this dispute or it's going to be resolved in their favor in the end. >> Last question.
1:31:28
Uh it relates to this Shop Pay, Shopify dynamic.
1:31:31
But but >> by the way, awesome product like the best.
1:31:36
It's the product that makes me not care about personal agents that can shop for me because it's just like it's very easy to buy. It's very easy to buy.
1:31:41
It's like I could save you I could save you a minute.
1:31:47
And it's like, no, you can't save me a minute because I land on the site button and it fills in it fills in the code for my T, you know, buy.
1:31:53
Um, >> how much do you think consumers actually enjoy shopping real quick? >> Yes. >> Yes.
1:32:01
Oh, that was I was going to drop in, Jordy, you and me, [laughter] we're we are we are two pieces of pond today. >> People love shopping.
1:32:07
The the the It's blows me away.
1:32:10
So, tech companies are like, number one, let us book your flight for you.
1:32:14
It's like I've had a personal assistant for 10 years.
1:32:17
He does not come within an inch of booking my flights for me. That is crazy talk.
1:32:20
Once I have a private jet, he can book when my pilots show up and fly me on my private jet.
1:32:26
Until then, I'm deciding which flight.
1:32:28
I understand which ones are going to be delayed.
1:32:29
I know which seat I want to be be on like that.
1:32:30
So, the fact this is continually a demo is hilarious to me.
1:32:35
Number two, people love shopping.
1:32:38
They don't want to be productive.
1:32:39
They want to be entertained.
1:32:40
One of the biggest forms of entertainment is shopping.
1:32:41
This is part of the whole like fast fashion or like or all those Chinese bread. Like it's fun.
1:32:47
Like >> speaking of toys, >> my nice rack.
1:32:50
You know what's part part is the whole joy of it.
1:32:54
>> Endless hours of research and figuring stuff out and buying stuff and then the package shows up and you're like and like if you buy Unifi stuff, they always charge shipping.
1:33:03
So you have all this pressure cuz you're like I I want to make sure I get everything in the right order. and then you buy it.
1:33:07
And literally the moment after you get the shipping notification, you're like, "Oh, I forgot to buy something else."
1:33:11
And then you start the whole process all over again and it's all torturous, but actually it's fun because that's kind of the whole point of this is we want to like make >> also there's so much information on a product page like companies have spent so much energy like focusing on that and and you look at like apparel as a category.
1:33:28
It's like they're going to tell you what size the model is wearing and you want to know that and you want to look at the different different styles and the idea of having a personal agent that's like going and getting some of the information bringing it back to you and then you're like well what about this other like tell me about this thing on the >> like uh this is a this is my free relationship advice of the day.
1:33:49
Um just because someone's complaining doesn't mean they're unhappy.
1:33:53
like like and there's a bit like, oh, I have to go research this and I have to go do this and I'm so busy and then and you have your eager tech company executives say, oh, I have an assistant that can do it for you.
1:34:04
And it's like, no, not only do I want to do it, I want to complain about it.
1:34:08
I'm enjoying myself complaining right now, okay?
1:34:10
Would you just let me be and live my life?
1:34:12
And that so that's why I think there should be a mental reframing. >> Yeah.
1:34:19
Stop trying to make people's lives better and start highlighting to them.
1:34:24
And this is marketing 101.
1:34:26
>> Marketing 101 is you create the perception of a problem in people's lives and you show how your solution or how your product answer is the solution to the problem.
1:34:39
And instead of saying people don't have a problem that I'm insufficiently productive, >> they have a problem that I have too many packages piling up or I'm not processing returns.
1:34:49
And it's like and like just highlighting that like how miserable this makes you.
1:34:53
Do you know how much money Jordy you're leaving on the table?
1:34:56
You could have like three puffer jackets if you got all your money back.
1:34:58
And then [laughter] and then say look, you could actually just done. It's done.
1:35:01
Money in your bank account. Wasn't that easy?
1:35:04
Now you could go and do whatever you want. You can complain. You can watch TV.
1:35:07
You can watch reals, >> complain. >> That's the answer.
1:35:12
>> More time to complain. >> Yeah.
1:35:12
The the funny thing is is it feels like what the personal agents have really the thing that people are super fixated on is the saving money, cancelling subscriptions and stuff like that.
1:35:22
And the concern I have there is like we've had a bunch of businesses like that that will even call like I think True Bill >> Rocket Money >> would call Yeah. is now Rocket Money.
1:35:31
They would call they would have people that would a human in the loop that would call and just cancel subscriptions for you or they would try to renegotiate the bill.
1:35:37
And the problem is these are like these are like billion dollar businesses which >> which is not going to fund the capbacks.
1:35:43
But [laughter] >> yeah well the I mean the whole cancellation auto cancellation thing drives me baddy as a subscription uh proprietor like we will get when these new ones come out.
1:35:53
>> No we will no it's actually it's the opposite.
1:35:56
We will have a wave of customer support issues which is people contacting saying why am I not getting my email?
1:36:02
I'm like because you cancelled your subscription. No I didn't.
1:36:05
and then they go back and look through their stupid little agent or whatever service went through and just canceled their recurring subscriptions.
1:36:12
Or the worst one is it'll go through their email inbox and you you you are required.
1:36:16
Now technically we do send transactional email.
1:36:21
Every email is customized.
1:36:21
It's not a marketing email but Google doesn't really care.
1:36:24
We have to put in the header with the unsubscribe thing.
1:36:27
>> So what does that mean?
1:36:27
People go through and click unsubscribe.
1:36:29
What if you what happens when you click that required to include unsubscribe?
1:36:32
you will stop getting email, but your subscription was not cancelled because those are completely Yeah, it's two different things.
1:36:40
And so, another customer support issue for us.
1:36:41
I'm not getting my emails. Why not?
1:36:43
And then actually, no, you set some dumb agent off on your inbox that canceled your thing and now it's this whole rigma roll of you having to agree to these things to so we can legally let you back on the list [laughter] because like there's actual federal laws around email lists.
1:37:01
Big pain in the rear end.
1:37:02
>> Never cancel strategy. just don't do it.
1:37:05
Bake that into the pre-train.
1:37:06
>> I mean, I should be happy about it because they're like upset that like you this is actually it's super we actually end up building our whole We built our own email service that is actually amazing.
1:37:14
We send like >> fully customized emails at like the rate of like 20,000 like a minute or something like that like more performant than any other service we have.
1:37:21
Fully customized all these sorts of things.
1:37:24
And the reason is all the the genesis of doing our own email was every email service out there is sending email people don't want >> like that's and so everything around them is about overcoming the fact that
1:37:38
people don't want to get the email that they're sending and I'm like no I'm actually sending people email people do want and it's really interesting it just completely changes the problems and issues and features that you need to you need to build. We need custom silicon. I We need custom silicon.
1:37:52
I want 20,000 emails a millisecond. That's the future.
1:37:57
Thank you so much for coming on the show. >> Fantastic to see you. >> Always great.
1:38:02
>> Have a great rest of your day.
1:38:03
>> Talk to you guys later. >> Goodbye. Off the hook.
1:38:06
>> Let me tell you about Railway.
1:38:06
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1:38:16
We got a traffic jam on our hands, so we're going to lightning round. bring in uh Gagan Bani. Welcome to the show. How you doing? >> Hey, how are you?
1:38:26
>> Sorry for keeping you long.
1:38:28
>> Hopefully you got to hang out.
1:38:30
>> Please introduce yourself.
1:38:30
Tell us about Horowitz and Academy. >> I'm Gageni.
1:38:35
I'm CEO of Horowitz Andre Academy.
1:38:38
It's a new school for young builders who want to go and make something of their career.
1:38:43
Um we're really excited to be announcing it today.
1:38:46
raised 42 million bucks and uh Mark and Mark and Eric are joining the board. >> Cool.
1:38:52
Uh talk about the structure in person virtual uh thousands of students to start, class of 20 to start.
1:38:57
How are you thinking about uh scaling up?
1:39:03
>> Yeah, I mean you got to start small.
1:39:03
So we're going to have 50 students.
1:39:05
Um it's uh the first class is tuition free.
1:39:08
It's called the founding class fellowship.
1:39:10
So it's going to be a little different from any other uh programs we run.
1:39:13
uh it's in person in San Francisco.
1:39:17
It's, you know, I think that's probably the most important part of this whole thing is that it's about getting right in the mix of Silicon Valley, understanding the culture, getting immersed in the in the people and building a a great network.
1:39:34
>> Uh at least two years.
1:39:34
Did I have that or is it one year?
1:39:36
So I >> the first program will be one year eventually.
1:39:40
Uh we'll we'll launch a two-year program. >> Yeah.
1:39:42
How how hard is it these days to do like four-year accreditation?
1:39:44
I know like getting accredited is really difficult, but people were saying that about banks and there's new bank charters that are going out for startups.
1:39:54
Palmer Lies Bank, Arabore.
1:39:57
>> The funny thing is it just doesn't matter.
1:39:58
Like maybe companies none of the companies that you want to work at are like you're super talented but you didn't get the four years. >> Yeah.
1:40:06
But how are you thinking about it?
1:40:07
Are you thinking like >> No, that's that's my answer.
1:40:08
Okay, that's your answer. >> That's my answer. skip entirely.
1:40:12
>> And it's funny because because I do think that I I I do wonder if over time like a year is actually >> a year is actually enough cuz like I went I I I remember the end of my spring semester of college.
1:40:24
I was like, "Okay, like college was fun.
1:40:26
I want to like start working now.
1:40:28
I feel like I like met a bunch of, you know, cool people and but I'm ready for like real life."
1:40:36
And I know not not everyone is that way, but often times people aren't ready for real life because they're not prepared to have a real job, right?
1:40:41
And so if you could actually maybe solve that, then maybe people do a year of of a university sort of experience and then they can just actually go get a job and and they realize like, hey, instead of going from this like highburn life where I'm I'm basically losing money for four years to then try to make it all back in in later years, you can just have it condensed down.
1:41:06
>> So CEO uh raised money.
1:41:06
I assume it's for-profit, but do you have a view on for-profit versus nonprofit?
1:41:13
Obviously, there's a lot of critiques of the nonprofit system, but what is the philosophy around the the long-term and incentive alignment?
1:41:21
Basically, >> I mean, we're we're pro- capitalists and pro- optimists over here.
1:41:26
So, technoptimists, right?
1:41:28
So, we believe that having a financial model is only going to help us serve students better.
1:41:35
And like maybe one of the biggest challenges with the modern education system is we've completely forgotten about students.
1:41:40
It's like like you know talk about K through 12 or higher ed or whatever.
1:41:45
It's all about all the all the quote unquote adults who run the show and serving themselves.
1:41:51
So one of the great things about the for-profit model is it forces you to deliver or die, you know.
1:41:57
And so our our plan is to is to deliver an amazing experience and hopefully uh our investors and ourselves will get rewarded for that.
1:42:07
>> Does delivering look like graduating straight into entrepreneurship or is there are there other avenues that you think are exciting like joining companies as employees, trade schools?
1:42:21
Like there's so many different opportunities in the modern economy.
1:42:24
>> Yeah, I mean you guys have been in the valley a long time. So have I, right?
1:42:28
Like you know the most successful people are not only founders.
1:42:30
Like I know like so many of my friends who decided to switch from being founders or never were and join companies are incredibly productive and successful and happy.
1:42:42
And so there's no reason to prescribe one thing.
1:42:46
I mean I think one one of the biggest challenges we're going to have as a school is there's going to be a lot of attention and pressure on these students.
1:42:53
And my goal as sort of CEO is to design a culture that reduces that pressure and allows them to see that there are many different options for their careers.
1:43:04
And you know there's many different paths to a successful life.
1:43:07
So I don't see why we have to over arrandise starting a company.
1:43:12
Um and that's actually why we're building a school and not an accelerator, right?
1:43:19
because we think that you know one two years to explore and and learn is a much better outcome than okay I'm 18 and now I either got to join something for four years or I got to start a company and give up 10 years. >> Yeah.
1:43:32
No, it can be a crazy trip. >> Yeah.
1:43:34
>> Yeah. So many so many people would have been like top 1% second in first you know second in command type people and actually like you know maybe only top 30% founders and the difference there is like tens of millions or even you know in some cases billions of dollars
1:43:53
>> and so I think that's like such an important lesson is like no you don't to have an impact in the world to be successful to have the career that you want uh you shouldn't just be being high, you know, when when you're young, maybe being a founder is high status. When you're older, just like being
1:44:07
When you're older, just like being successful is high status.
1:44:09
It doesn't really matter exactly how you got there, but like you want to make sure that you actually win.
1:44:16
>> Everyone's equal on the golf course, the country club.
1:44:18
H >> how many people made $100 million in the SpaceX IPO?
1:44:21
And we don't know who they are or what they do.
1:44:23
I mean, they they're just, you know, they're not just they are engineers for one of the coolest companies on the planet, right?
1:44:31
and uh but they don't have a fancy they're not even second in command and I think that just tells you everything you need to know about uh why it shouldn't be uh just one path coming out of the academy. >> Very cool.
1:44:44
Well, thank you so much for hopping on the show.
1:44:47
>> When uh last last question, when when are you guys uh when's the first >> Oh, yeah. Class >> in fall.
1:44:52
>> First class in fall fall 2027.
1:44:52
Um >> applications are open today.
1:44:56
So check us out at theacademyf. com.
1:45:00
That's going to be an incredibly low admit rate.
1:45:02
50 slots for I mean something that already has gone viral on the internet.
1:45:06
There's going to be a lot of people.
1:45:07
So, good luck to you if you applied.
1:45:10
>> Yeah, that's a good steal.
1:45:12
>> The first year is free.
1:45:12
It won't be from then on. >> Okay.
1:45:14
Well, thanks so much for coming on. Break it down for us.
1:45:16
Have a good rest of your day. Goodbye.
1:45:18
Let me tell you about MongoDB.
1:45:20
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1:45:27
We have Alex Ratner from Snorkel AI.
1:45:30
Massive fundraising news.
1:45:30
I'm going to hit the gong straight away.
1:45:32
$350 million round bum valuation.
1:45:40
As demand grows for specialized AI training data, how specialized are we talking these days?
1:45:48
>> Well, first of all, thanks for having me on and I love the gong.
1:45:49
I bought a a used gong on the street that looked kind of like that.
1:45:52
And [laughter] sadly, I I then forgot about it and we never really developed the culture of gong ringing.
1:45:56
And >> yeah, it's not just about the object, it's about the lifestyle.
1:46:01
>> Proc it's process discipline lifestyle. Exactly.
1:46:03
And so you you've inspired me there. >> Exactly.
1:46:06
>> But yeah, I guess we were here to talk about data extensively. Right.
1:46:07
So I should get back to that.
1:46:09
Um yeah, what does specialized data mean?
1:46:10
I mean I think >> one of the big shifts that in some ways, you know, so we started a decade ago at Stanford and Udub doing research >> overnight. Yeah, I'm a dinosaur. >> That's amazing. Congrats. Well deserved.
1:46:22
>> I remember when a when a when a Jev was called a classifier, if you're if you're [laughter] okay with the uh the the truly nerdy AI jokes, but um you know, I think there's this big shift that happens in, you know, any kind of autonomy where or any learned autonomy, you know, self-driving, digital LMS, physical AI, where >> you we call like data 1. 0 to data 2.
1:46:41
0 where when you're early on in the the the learning curve, >> you know, the model doesn't know much.
1:46:48
So kind of any bit of information is additive and so therefore your you know rational focus is on volume right and volume is mostly solved by you know staffing crowd sourcing how many how many humans can you get into the factory right >> and then you naturally get to the kind of the more durable you know asmmptote phase where like now models are really good and it's not about any data it's
1:47:09
about the right data that you know targets some area where they're you know they don't know something or they're misaligned on something or or uh or they can be improved and finding and building that data, you know, becomes a lot more about precision, quality, and and we think that's really more the, you know, the place where kind of a a research and technology approach comes to bear. And
1:47:25
And so that's that's kind of where where we focus, and that's >> that's kind of we think is the is the the interesting area in data today.
1:47:33
>> Is it too aggressive to frame you as sort of like short recursive self-improvement?
1:47:37
because there is this thesis, you know, sort of mulling around that like the models are going to train themselves and then maybe you don't need any more data because they're all doing synthetic data.
1:47:48
Like how have you grappled with that?
1:47:50
Because you seem very grounded.
1:47:51
You've been doing this a long time.
1:47:52
I feel like you're not maybe swayed by the latest hype cycle on on Twitter in a single week, but uh how have you processed that whole thing? >> Yeah.
1:48:01
Uh I mean I' I've heard the and I've been working in synthetic data as a researcher for yeah almost a decade too and I've heard the uh we're we're one model advance away from you know solving everything thing a few times.
1:48:14
I I I'd say I'm I'm short the more kind of sci-fi uh you know >> accelerate and be done with humanity's contribution to anything >> uh economic kind of version of RSI.
1:48:24
Um I'm actually I would call myself though more bullish on RSI but RSI >> that contains other elements beyond just kind of modifying model training code and hyperparameters.
1:48:37
In other words, you know, compute, energy and and data bottlenecks, human expertise bottlenecks, right?
1:48:42
So >> you know, I've I've had this take that it's at a certain point like super intelligence to do RSI fully needs to be able to fund raise.
1:48:51
Like you got to go get more capital at some point.
1:48:52
And so and so RSI in many ways is like AGI complete in the sense that it should be able to do the full stack even the capital form.
1:49:02
>> Maybe another example another example is like we it feels like we're coming up on math being like somewhat uh solved and I'm sure once it's all solved there they're you know that hopefully you know you could figure out new questions but like do do you expect to see a drop in demand for math experts from the labs?
1:49:23
>> Yeah it's interesting.
1:49:23
I mean, I think that the first thing before double clicking on math for a second.
1:49:25
Um, been too many years since I've taken a theoretical math course, so I'm going to I'm going to dodge that whole topic uh artfully run the clock down.
1:49:32
But um first on kind of overall um you know areas where there's demand for you overall areas where you know this RSI loop needs data, needs human expertise, needs real world input as a as you know as a necessary input.
1:49:49
Um there's this old um you know like we tend to conflate areas that are easy for humans as necessarily being easy for AI and and ones that are that are hard um as being hard for AI and it's often not the same. Right?
1:50:06
So math is something where it's very very hard for humans but there are some reasons to expect that it it would be more approachable.
1:50:14
more approachable. I mean there's you know decades of work on on you know verifiability engines like lean and ways to kind of check it and and there's lots of data out there and data can be generated more more automatically and then areas like you know writing a good Slack post to your coworker uh you know
1:50:31
has sparser data and more you know illdefined rewards and you know doesn't work right away as well and needs more nuance context and so you know first of all there are these areas that are kind of counterintuitive where there's real demand for human input you know it's not
1:50:44
enough is to have a coding agent that can kind of tweak the hyperparameters of the model to achieve RSI you need real input from the real world but even in the areas like math like coding um where we do a lot of volume these days you know one there's some basic economic you know courses where once something
1:51:01
becomes valuable and this is especially true for something like coding where maybe the the you know the accuracy goes up the demand for some types of easier data goes down but the economic value of every kind of additional decimal point of improvement goes way up >> because of the value. >> Yeah. >> Yeah.
1:51:17
>> Um and and so does the difficulty of creating that data.
1:51:21
>> And so that's kind of the growth trend that that you know I mean selfishly talking my book for a second that we've we've benefited from is >> you know a lot of people have entered the data space.
1:51:28
Great validation for those of us who have been trying to >> you know push on data being an interesting area for a decade or so.
1:51:33
Um but you know you can't get this hard data with just just staffing or sourcing human hours.
1:51:41
You can't get it with just kind of, you know, trying to have the model that you're trying to sell to that provider generate all the data, you know, like a, you know, synthetic slop cannon.
1:51:50
You have to actually use [laughter] more sophisticated blends of human expertise and and and specialized AI to get this, you know, really really hard coding data that, you know, emulates what a software engineer, a senior software engineer will do over, you know, days or weeks, what a an expert mathematician would do.
1:52:06
So, you know, from a from an economic perspective in terms of how is the opportunity grown, >> it's a if you can keep up with that kind of RSI >> waterline. >> Yeah.
1:52:17
>> And maybe maybe you know, feel free to make fun of me, but we uh we call what we build the RSI engine for data because there's also kind of a compounding loop in our platform of humans being accelerated and improved by AI, but then their feedback improving the specialized AI models we use.
1:52:31
Um, and you know, one has to keep up with the lingo, right?
1:52:34
Uh but but you know our view is only if you have that kind an approach like that that can feasibly keep up with the frontier.
1:52:42
You know if you can't do that your data is not going to be valuable anymore.
1:52:47
If you can it's more valuable than ever before. >> Yeah.
1:52:49
Well congratulations on the round.
1:52:52
Congratulations on the progress.
1:52:52
I love an overnight success like this.
1:52:54
Uh welld deserved and hopefully we'll talk to you soon. Awesome.
1:53:01
>> We'll talk to you soon. Goodbye.
1:53:01
Let me tell you about Crowd Strike. Your business is AI.
1:53:05
Their business is securing it.
1:53:06
Crowd Strike secures AI and stops breaches.
1:53:09
Uh we have uh our lightning round continuing.
1:53:12
I believe Peter from Swarm Arrow, the co-founder and CEO, is in the waiting room next, but we got a little bit of traffic jam.
1:53:20
Hopefully, we can bring in Peter.
1:53:20
And we're going to have Tyler Cosgrove sub in for Jordy Hayes, who has to take off right at 1 PM sharp.
1:53:26
I don't I like springing it on people every once in a while.
1:53:29
Sometimes I like to do a little bit of an intro, but we're going to have Tyler sitting next to me.
1:53:32
Peter, how are you doing? Welcome to the show. >> Fantastic. Thanks for having me on.
1:53:38
>> Thank you so much for jumping on.
1:53:38
Uh would love to uh uh reintroduce the product for everyone.
1:53:43
Just explain how you're positioned in the market and sort of take us through the basics of the company. >> Yeah, absolutely.
1:53:50
So last week we introduced to the world GAR which is our our aircraft really designed around breaking kind of the iron triangle of range uh payload capacity and cost right and that's really one of the big problems facing uh facing the department of war today and the air force today.
1:54:08
>> Is the name GRA from the Koix car [laughter] or is it a more generic >> It's not. We we we did check that.
1:54:12
No uh it is from the uh the the the turtle monster that fought Godzilla. Oh, okay. [laughter] Cool. >> It is old school. >> That's great.
1:54:22
So, uh, what does the process of building this actually, uh, look like?
1:54:26
I I believe we have a video that we can pull up while while you're explaining it further, but I'd love to know like are you are you specifying it in in basically like PDFs and documents and then going to the Department of War, selling it, and then building it? Are you prototyping?
1:54:39
Like what is the flow to actually take something like this from start to finish? >> Yeah, absolutely.
1:54:44
So, we started this about four years ago when we started the company.
1:54:46
company. It is a long process and we started off by kind of sketching up a a concept figuring out what the problem is we needed to solve >> and then going about like designing the aircraft but I love the aircraft I'm an airplane uh guy at heart but the
1:55:00
aircraft is really just one piece of it so >> along with the airplane you really have to design how to build this >> and uh so we've been in as well as building the aircraft we've also been building the factory the the capacity to to really build these out hundreds a year. >> Sure. And when you look at it, you >> Sure.
1:55:14
And when you look at it, you you've got a bunch of aircraft, you can build them, you really have to be able to control them.
1:55:18
And that's where uh we've tried to do things differently than the the single pilot per aircraft uh model we have today is really building out that autonomy and the command and control stack that allows us to uh to have truly a swarm of these, hundreds of these operated all at once. >> Uh hundreds of them.
1:55:35
When I think about one remote pilot per vehicle, is that actually a bottleneck?
1:55:42
I mean, do we not have hundreds of of Air Force uh you know, soldiers in Nevada in shipping containers controlling these things remotely?
1:55:54
Are we actually bottlenecked there or is this or is this just like thinking even further into the future?
1:55:59
>> So, it's a little bit of both. A we truly are.
1:56:00
There just aren't enough folks out there who have th those uh those skill sets and be think about coordinating this uh you know when you have hundreds of aircraft like these are kind of conflicts >> that happened last time in World War II, right?
1:56:10
So you can't have uh folks talking on the radio trying to figure this out.
1:56:14
You really need that autonomy to to truly uh make that uh make that effective today. >> Yeah.
1:56:20
So uh how important is price to the buyer?
1:56:23
How do you actually guarantee that?
1:56:26
Is there any like financial risk where you go to the department of war and you say it's 10 mil and then it winds up coming back at 9.
1:56:31
9 and you're not making any margin? How does that work?
1:56:36
>> It's it's super important.
1:56:36
So this is why we've kind of designed it from the very beginning.
1:56:39
Typically in aerospace, you know, it's all at least since uh in the last 50 years or so, it's really been about like how do you get the most performance out of an airplane and everything else you kind of, you know, kind of falls by the wayside.
1:56:48
For us, we looked at how much does this cost from day one, right?
1:56:52
And and that's not something you sprinkle on top of design.
1:56:55
You really bake that in from the from the earliest stages.
1:56:56
So, we we're confident the uh the Air Force is asking for less than 10 million per and uh >> they're not going to pay more. [laughter] >> Yeah.
1:57:05
Uh >> we've done the math and we can do that. >> That's good. >> Yeah.
1:57:08
Was there like a specific kind of like theater of war that this was like built for or is it like very general like in your kind of ideal use case is there like a very specific kind of like I don't know geographical >> sure you you know it can be used in a lot of different places but really when we looked at what what's going to push the limits it really is the Pacific. It's that range.
1:57:26
It's carrying the kinds of payloads that the the the big enough ones that that make a difference in a potential conflict there really.
1:57:32
It's it's it's focused on on the Pacific, but use you can use it pretty much anywhere in the world.
1:57:39
>> Well, thank you for everything you're doing.
1:57:40
Congratulations on the progress and hope to talk to you soon. >> Super excited. Thanks a lot, guys.
1:57:45
>> Have a good rest of your day. >> Cheers.
1:57:47
>> Let me tell you about Cisco.
1:57:47
Cisco, critical infrastructure for the AI era.
1:57:52
Unlock [screaming] seamless real-time experiences and new value with Cisco. Good soundboard. >> I'm learning. >> Good soundboard.
1:58:00
Uh, our last guest has been waiting far too long.
1:58:02
We have Daniel from Fair Square Medicare.
1:58:08
Welcome to the show, Daniel.
1:58:08
Sorry for the switch around.
1:58:10
Thanks for being flexible. Welcome to the show. How you doing? >> Hey, thanks.
1:58:14
Thanks for having me, guys.
1:58:16
It's great to be on here.
1:58:17
>> Appreciate the flexibility.
1:58:17
Uh, first time in the show.
1:58:19
Uh can you sort of give us a whirlwind tour of your career? You've done a lot.
1:58:23
Uh how do you introduce yourself these days?
1:58:28
>> Uh yes, it's a great question. Right.
1:58:30
Right now I'm a I'm a car show host. Okay.
1:58:33
>> So I have a show called Cars and Capitalists.
1:58:34
I take take some of my friends who are great investors and operators out in old 911 and we drive around Marin.
1:58:42
>> So we have like Sam Lesson, Paul Goo, Sam Damo on there. That's a lot of fun.
1:58:47
But but I mean like I feel like the the way I should introduce myself is I've tried my whole career to start companies um by doing all the wrong things.
1:58:54
Um but I did a couple of things right.
1:59:00
>> And so so I've uh my last company was Fair Square Medicare. >> Sure.
1:59:04
>> Um sold it after 6 years. Great company.
1:59:08
We ended up working helping find like 25,000 American seniors. >> Oh wow.
1:59:13
>> Um find the right health insurance.
1:59:13
Like there's actually probably a good chance we've worked with like the the parents of some of your staff and before that did a did a fintech app called Trim and way before that started a >> lender for the powersport space called Octane Lending. >> Interesting.
1:59:27
Is there any like common thread between the categories or strategies or teams between those companies or is it sort of just like be open to opportunity when it knocks you open the door and you go after it really hard?
1:59:43
I think there are a couple of threads there two.
1:59:46
One is just like consumer advocacy which was true for the last two companies.
1:59:50
So like this one was the the the kind of realization was people are turning 65 and there are like 50 health insurance plans um to choose from and and they really can't tell a difference.
2:00:01
It might as well be like a foreign language to them. Sure.
2:00:04
>> But the the implications are massive of like you get on the wrong health plan and then you get like cancer and then you can't get on a better plan.
2:00:08
Um, and before that there was a personal finance app called Trim, which I co-ounded >> and we were the first ones to show you a list of all your subscriptions on your credit card.
2:00:19
We were like we were like Plaid's biggest one of their biggest first customers. >> Wow.
2:00:25
>> To that and and and that became like a competitive space eventually. I I know.
2:00:30
Didn't Rocket Money acquire True Bill?
2:00:32
That's what Jordy was saying recently. >> Yeah.
2:00:34
So True Bill uh cop well they they just copied us early on.
2:00:39
The coffees a subscription feature >> and uh no but they uh they out executed. >> Yeah.
2:00:45
[laughter] >> Look they they >> credit where credit's due.
2:00:49
>> Credit credit where credit's due they out executed.
2:00:50
I think they sold to Rocket for like a billion bucks a much smaller exit. >> Great time. Yeah.
2:00:54
So it was a lot of good good times.
2:00:56
Um what uh where where do you want Cars and Capitalists to go?
2:01:02
Have you have you asked people if you can drive their special cars?
2:01:04
Because I feel like the comedians in Cars Getting Coffee, part of the beauty is I think Jerry Seinfeld is such a huge collection that he picks a car that matches with the or in his in his theory like the comedian's identity, but I I would kill for a whirlwind tour of Silicon Valley's biggest motorheads, you know?
2:01:24
>> Yeah, it's it's a great idea.
2:01:24
I I actually I I should probably like I I like I like running it lean and so I don't do any B-roll.
2:01:32
I don't do outside footage of the car.
2:01:33
It's all I just have a GoPro in the car >> and it's just us talking.
2:01:38
>> Um >> and and and maybe I'll like go find other people's cars and get I would need to like hire someone to take video of like of the car.
2:01:46
It would need to be >> It would be a very weird show because I feel like 90% of your guests would be like another Model Y. Yay.
2:01:51
Like >> maybe the new roadster.
2:01:57
>> Maybe the new Roadster. >> Yeah. Get some air.
2:01:59
>> No, I don't I don't want to drive a go-kart.
2:02:00
Although I would drive a Roadsterdire. Yeah, like a a Tesla.
2:02:04
After you after you drive an old 911, you realize that the Tesla is is an amazing vehicle for getting a B, but it's a go-kart. >> Yeah. >> And I I don't know.
2:02:14
Sorry if I curse on your show, but but um >> but it's fine.
2:02:18
>> But actually, you raised a great point, John.
2:02:20
If anyone is watching and has a a manual F430, >> that's something we should definitely add to the show. >> Okay.
2:02:28
>> It would be it would be great to have.
2:02:29
But I mean, of course, like this is Silicon Valley, so and like a lot of >> the people on my show couldn't care less about cars. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's sort of bifrocated.
2:02:37
It's like either they have like an exquisite collection or they've never owned anything other than a Tesla.
2:02:43
And and it's the most boring.
2:02:43
Like either they care or they don't.
2:02:44
There's very few people that are in the middle.
2:02:48
Um we've been running predictions with a lot of guests about the Tesla Roadster.
2:02:52
Elon's going to announce it on October 1st.
2:02:55
And he said that it might fly, might jump, might leave the ground. >> Yeah. Shut down the airspace.
2:03:00
>> They shut down the airspace.
2:03:00
The FAA said, uh, they've shut down the airspace for for 10,000 ft in the air.
2:03:04
So that creates a boundary.
2:03:07
It's either zero in off the ground, it winds up not jumping or flying at all.
2:03:11
He was just joking around.
2:03:13
Or it can go up to 10,000 ft.
2:03:13
So I want your prediction right now.
2:03:16
Super binding, super high stakes.
2:03:18
We're going to hold this to you.
2:03:20
We're going to hold you to this, but uh how do you how far do you think it'll get off the ground?
2:03:25
Are we talking inches, feet, hundreds of feet? >> Zero inches.
2:03:29
>> It's going to have it's going to have four thrusters in the back that are going to generate down force that's going to let it go like really quick. >> Okay.
2:03:36
So, we're looking 0 to 60, 1 and 1/2 seconds, 1 second, something crazy like that. >> No. 9 seconds. >> No way. That would be wild.
2:03:44
>> I have I have some insidefo.
2:03:44
I I was I I did like a little uh deep dive on quantum computing at one point and it's in sale and I was on a flight to Austin.
2:03:53
I sat next to this guy who >> I don't I don't want to >> didn't have a screen protector on.
2:03:57
[laughter] >> I don't Yeah. No, no, no, no.
2:03:58
I just started talking to him.
2:03:59
He was this great he he was pretty like senior Tesla dude.
2:04:03
Um >> that's all I'll say about him.
2:04:04
Like he was like the goal he was like the goal he was a total bro. He was great.
2:04:08
And his and he was just the goal is >> to not kill the driver. [laughter] >> Yeah.
2:04:14
the G-force needs to be uh tolerable.
2:04:16
So if the if the if the G if the cold gas thrusters act as downforce, couldn't you reverse them like the old fan car, make it lift off the ground even just for a stunt?
2:04:28
You don't think it's going to go even one inch?
2:04:29
It feels like he's been teasing it like at least we're going to get it jumping off of a ramp or something.
2:04:34
It's going to go in the air.
2:04:35
Why shut down the airspace 10,000 ft up?
2:04:37
I think that part is a PR stunt, but I think he I think he actually wants to make a car people can buy, right?
2:04:43
And the thing the thing about a car with wheels is that it's a wing, right?
2:04:47
Because the bottom is flat and then the the top is curved.
2:04:49
So it it generates which is why like spoilers exist.
2:04:54
>> So the only thing that really makes sense is is you have you have the like boosters going down.
2:04:58
But m you know, maybe it'll have maybe it'll actually be a quadcopter and >> but uh but I mean it's amazing, right, that they're this is like their last harrah.
2:05:06
This is like the last car they're going to make >> probably.
2:05:08
Yeah, maybe the Cybert truck SUV.
2:05:11
I'm really hoping they do that.
2:05:11
I think that would be an interesting one. But, uh, who knows?
2:05:16
>> Would you would you buy that? >> I don't know.
2:05:17
It's certainly like a an aggressive aesthetic choice.
2:05:20
But functionally, like having a full-size SUV for so many modern American families, that's just a non-negotiable.
2:05:27
Yes, there might be an an old Porsche in the garage, but there's going to be a full-size SUV for anyone that has a family.
2:05:34
So, it just seems like a market segment that they've been sort of dabbling in with the Model Y and Model X, but they never really got there cuz those are more minivan sized.
2:05:41
You got to go with the Land Yacht, the American, the Expedition, the Escalade.
2:05:45
This is what America's built on, right? >> I love that. Yeah.
2:05:49
You know, you know the Y the Model Y extended wheelbase is like totally sold out. >> I have one. I'm part of the problem. I ordered one of those.
2:05:56
>> Do you have the extended one?
2:05:56
I I don't have it yet, but I but I I I was one of the pre-orders.
2:06:00
Um because the full self-driving is very good.
2:06:02
And I was like, ah, if they stretch it out, that sort of checks that box.
2:06:06
I think I can fit all the kids, the dogs, all the all the gear in there.
2:06:09
So, I think that might fill that slot for a little bit, but uh you know, Land Yacht Land Yacht is uh is still still in the books potentially.
2:06:17
Um what do you think on pricing Tesla Roadster?
2:06:19
He originally promised 250 at the time. 250K. That was supercar money.
2:06:25
That was Lamborghini Ferrari money.
2:06:27
Now it's wellsp spec Turbo S money, right?
2:06:30
It's like it went down from 250 gets you a sports car, used to get you a supercar.
2:06:36
Do you think he raises the price and it's a $600,000 car like a normal >> or does he or does he accept like alternate forms of payment?
2:06:43
Like is he going to accept USD, right?
2:06:45
Like if he's definitely going to accept Bitcoin, >> can will he accept uh shares in certain companies?
2:06:53
[laughter] >> Interesting. Yeah.
2:06:54
build the portfolio maybe. I don't know.
2:06:56
I I'd be excited because if they can do some surprising 0 to 60 time or some gimmick >> and then it's just a really fast sports car for 250 that actually is a unique space in a world where uh even for all the supercars they all start at 400.
2:07:13
Now >> here's a question John like this is obviously not serious for them right they're not going to scale this line.
2:07:20
And they don't they don't care about like the the revenue.
2:07:22
I would guess the revenue, right?
2:07:24
This is this is like a fun toy project.
2:07:26
This is like a better version of that that flamethrower.
2:07:29
>> So like I wonder how many people they have working on it.
2:07:31
Like I bet it's a I bet it's a tiny [laughter] number.
2:07:33
And I I I bet they just don't care that much about the price.
2:07:36
Like they're just going to say 250 because they said 250 before.
2:07:40
Obviously if it was like 500 or a million.
2:07:43
>> I like I wonder what the elasticity curve there is.
2:07:45
like they >> Oh yeah, maybe they just do a really limited run and then they don't even continue to sell them and they're like, "Yeah, we sold them all at cost and we did the thing. We check the box."
2:07:54
I'm just shocked that Elon hasn't dropped it because he he's he drops projects all the time and he could have easily just been like, "I'm refunding all the deposits.
2:08:03
We're going in a different direction. We're refocusing."
2:08:05
And everyone would be like, "Great. Yeah, that's fine.
2:08:08
Focus on the next thing."
2:08:09
Like, you know, do do whatever.
2:08:09
It wouldn't be that big of a deal. I don't know.
2:08:12
Well, that suggest this suggestion you just made it it really begs like maybe it is a real flying car, right?
2:08:18
Maybe cuz maybe because like why why would he do like a toy project? >> Yeah.
2:08:24
>> Um if you know it like hints at something bigger. >> Yeah. Yeah.
2:08:27
He's never been one to like Yeah.
2:08:30
just rip the band-aid off.
2:08:30
Like he never took Tesla private and it wasn't like he was like I got to do that.
2:08:34
I'm I'm sticking with it.
2:08:36
I'm still telling people it's going to happen.
2:08:37
It was just like yeah that was a crazy idea. Didn't work out.
2:08:40
Moving on to the next thing.
2:08:42
stock's going to the moon, you know.
2:08:42
So, >> are you are you going to get one?
2:08:45
>> So, so the the more we've been talking about this, I think that the deposit is incredibly up incredible upside because I think it's like $5,000 down and then you have to put $50,000 down within within uh 10 days >> within 10 days.
2:09:00
The long the announcement's 10 days away and so it's refundable and so if it's cool then everyone's going to flood in.
2:09:07
you actually get one maybe regardless of whether or not it trades up or trades down, you just have the option to be the one with the flying car or you just get a refund.
2:09:17
And so, >> dude, what's the what's the Roadster Pop going to be?
2:09:20
People talk about IPO pop.
2:09:22
You're going to buy it for 250, turn around in a day and sell it for 600. >> It's possible. It's possible. So, yeah, maybe. I'm really really close.
2:09:31
>> If if if you believe it's downforce, right?
2:09:33
And and therefore, like this is not an entree into flying cars.
2:09:35
this is just like a little gimmick, then it's going to be limited.
2:09:39
It's going to be the sickest gimmick ever, which means it's going to the value is going to go up.
2:09:43
So, like everyone should just try to buy one and resell it.
2:09:47
>> And also, I I I I do just think that the uh like like there is a more moderate scenario, which is it's not a flying car.
2:09:54
It's not the craziest thing ever, but it's just like a really really crazy sports car at that price point.
2:09:58
And it's just like yeah, it's just a good good option to drive.
2:10:03
Of course, like you know, you're never going to compete with the with the manual uh air cooled Porsches of the world, but uh for a for a different buyer, it is just like you're getting a you're getting a crazy experience for what is in the modern era a sort of reasonable price.
2:10:19
But yeah, if I if it doesn't fly and and he raises the price to 800K, I think a lot of people are going to be saying I'm out. But we'll see.
2:10:27
>> You you know, I was I was I wasn't thinking of buying one, but this conversation is I think I think it might be a really great trade.
2:10:32
You're not even It's not that you're thinking of buying one.
2:10:35
It's like put down the deposit and then you just have the optionality.
2:10:36
And then you get to watch the the live stream and say, "Yeah, I'm I'm I'm going to I'm going to stick around and wait."
2:10:44
Because it's still going to take a year, but I'm converting.
2:10:45
Uh whereas people who did this the last time, they had to wait nine years and they tied up, I think, even more.
2:10:51
Some of them tied up a lot of money.
2:10:52
Um >> what would that money What do you know how much they tied up and what?
2:10:55
Like >> I think it was like 50k originally and if they put it in Tesla it'd be like $10 million or something.
2:11:00
It was like notoriously bad.
2:11:02
But what I'm saying is like under no circumstances tie your money up in this deposit for 10 years.
2:11:09
Just tie the money up for 10 days. See if you like it.
2:11:12
If you like it, then continue.
2:11:13
But if you don't, then pull out and and time box it so that you're always going to be out of that, you know, that that market in in by the end of the year basically.
2:11:23
>> What if he says just kidding and he's like it's going to be another 10 years.
2:11:28
>> If [laughter] it's h then he deserves it. I don't know.
2:11:31
Keep the keep the working capital, I suppose.
2:11:33
You know, have it as a treat. I don't know.
2:11:35
Anyway, this was a lot of fun.
2:11:37
Uh, anything else going on in your world? Anything else? >> Uh, robots.
2:11:40
I think the thing the thing I think about right now is I built a >> building a dog.
2:11:44
Like I have some free time and I run this company.
2:11:46
We continue to help seniors, but we got this is Popper. >> What's this?
2:11:51
>> This is a uh open source >> uh quadriped robot.
2:11:54
It's quadriped is a really suboptimal design. >> Okay. Okay.
2:11:58
Um, >> for a robot and um, >> why?
2:12:00
Because it doesn't have wheels.
2:12:02
>> Because because like the the you know what an actuator is?
2:12:05
>> It's, you know, electric motor like it it spins an axle really fast, right?
2:12:07
And basically like actuator is like a geared down electric motor. >> Sure.
2:12:12
>> So it's it's really good for like a car.
2:12:14
Like it's really amazing in the Tesla, but they're they're really bad at generating torque.
2:12:17
Like if you think about like the way your arm moves, right?
2:12:21
There's not like an actuator in your elbow that spins.
2:12:22
Like you just have a muscle. >> Sure.
2:12:25
>> I I think the nerdy way of saying that is like linear torque.
2:12:26
So in in a way all the humanoid robots companies are kind of like hamfisting this like this component which generates radial motion into like um >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> more linear motion.
2:12:38
So that's like that's something I'm playing around with. Um >> that's fun.
2:12:43
>> And uh >> dog robot dog do >> are you getting any utility?
2:12:49
>> What's the biggest use case? Defense home defense.
2:12:51
>> Uh it's like a party treat.
2:12:51
I we had we had uh we had like a bunch of our friends over for Russia and uh dude, they went nuts for this robot. >> Yeah, it sounds fun.
2:13:02
>> That's that's that's kind of it.
2:13:02
And and of course, like if you're interested in in building a robot, it's a great like it's a great V0ero. >> Fantastic.
2:13:09
Well, thanks so much for coming on the show. Have a great day. Let's do it again soon.
2:13:13
>> Talk to good to meet you.
2:13:15
>> Let me tell you about public.
2:13:15
com investing for those who take it seriously.
2:13:18
They got stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries, and more with great customer service.
2:13:21
If you think the Roadster event is going to go well, go express your opinion on public. com.
2:13:24
Do whatever you want to do.
2:13:28
Uh, any other breaking news?
2:13:30
Anything you've been tracking over the last couple hours while we've been live?
2:13:32
I think we're pretty much good. Opus 55 launched. We talked about that.
2:13:35
Um, benchmarks look really good, very cheap.
2:13:38
And the the key thing that you that you pointed out was like the second post is like this is the first model that we've released since we said we were pacing the frontier.
2:13:46
This is an expression of the >> like this is, you know, Fable 5.
2:13:51
1 class model, >> but it's it's much cheaper.
2:13:54
>> So, it's noticing more human, more dangerous.
2:13:57
It's it's the safest, best, fastest, cheapest, lightest, thinnest model ever.
2:14:04
Basically, that's >> And then open also did the same thing today. >> Okay.
2:14:06
Yeah, they Oh, so Soul's out. >> Soul. Yep. >> GPT6 Soul. >> Soul. >> Cool.
2:14:10
And then also Luna Luna, but not Terra >> or I might have had that back. >> Okay. But new new models.
2:14:14
The model wars never cease to uh to entertain.
2:14:17
Of course, all that matters is what you do with them.
2:14:21
So, uh send us some send us whatever you build.
2:14:24
Send us whatever you play around with.
2:14:25
Send us the hallucinations, the good, the bad. I want to see it all.
2:14:28
Thank you for watching TVPN.
2:14:30
We will see you tomorrow at 11 a. m. Pacific.
2:14:32
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2:14:34
Sign up for our newsletter at tbpn. com. Throw that flashbang. Tyler Cosgrove.