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4:35
Today is Friday, March 6th, 2026.
4:37
We are live from the TVP Ultra Show, the Temple of Technology, >> the fortress of finance, >> the capital of capital.
4:44
Uh we have a great show for you today, folks.
4:47
We're talking about GPT 5. 4.
4:49
We're talking about the price of oil, taking you through the mansion section.
4:55
We're also going to tell you about ramp. com. Time is money.
4:59
So, both is used corporate cards, bill pay, accounting, and a whole lot more all in one place.
5:02
Little bit lighter on the linear lineup today. A lighter linear lineup.
5:08
Uh, but we got Doug JRO, we got Dave Grman, Max Hodak, and Vincenzo Landino coming in to give us the breakdown on the kickoff to the F1 season.
5:18
So, uh, very, very fun show ahead for us.
5:22
Uh, Tyler Cowan chimed in.
5:26
Linear, of course, is the system for modern software development.
5:27
70% of enterprise works based on linear are using agency.
5:31
Uh Tyler Cowan chimed in.
5:33
He said yes, the new models are very very good. He's satisfied with 5. 4. Many people are.
5:37
Uh Justin says uh we've been testing 5. 4 for a week.
5:41
It feels like a great mix of Opus and Codeex.
5:42
Fast conversational great instruction following.
5:45
However, it seems to lack a bit of the eagerness of Opus and precision of Codeex.
5:49
So I was in Codeex desktop today. Um here's a blurb.
5:53
uh trying to get, you know, fun prompts and stuff going. Uh 5. 4 is available.
6:00
You can run it extra high. Uh it's not 5.
6:05
4-codex is not available. I still only have 5. 3 codecs.
6:08
And then >> well, they just combined they basically >> they combined everything.
6:12
And then and then uh Spark is still on 5. 3.
6:13
So uh it'll be interesting to see how all those models uh uh like you know map out.
6:21
But uh we'll have to test these out and uh see what people actually build as well as talk to people.
6:26
There's an interesting post in here we'll get to from uh Nate Silver about sort of like where we are in m model evaluation broadly because it is a uh uh sort of a tricky tricky scenario.
6:37
So uh Barto says it finally happened.
6:42
My personal move 37 or more. I am deeply impressed.
6:45
The solution is very nice, clean, and feels almost human.
6:49
While testing new models in the last few weeks, I >> What's your personal move 37? >> Smellvision? I've talked about this.
6:54
I'm waiting for smellvision. Uh, no. What?
7:00
So, move 37 for those who aren't familiar is uh uh Lisa Doll playing uh Deep Mind in Go.
7:04
And uh DeepMind dropped move 37.
7:08
It was very uncharacteristic.
7:11
It had never that strategy was not uh something that many go masters would have recommended.
7:16
It seemed like a blunder and uh it was move 37 integrated into the first brothers launch video. >> Yes. Yes. Little Easter egg.
7:26
>> This is when uh Lis Go to Smoke, right? >> No. No. >> Oh, no. That happened.
7:30
>> He was so stressed out that he couldn't bring himself to go smoke. He had stood up.
7:35
So, basically what happened was throughout the go matches, Lisa Doll would get up and go outside and have a smoke break.
7:41
Uh, and in the documentary, it sort of looks like he's it sort the story gets apocryphily told as he was so stressed out by the craziness of this move, watching machine intelligence emerge, this this incredible move 37 that he couldn't understand that he had to step up, step away, go smoke a cigarette, reset, and then come back to the game.
8:04
That's not actually what happened.
8:05
He he was processed it, was confused.
8:08
It was kind of like, oh, that was weird.
8:09
and then keeps playing and then that move 37 winds up being uh essential to the victory of the computer over the go master, the human goaster.
8:18
But we as we like to tell it, he was so shocked by move 37 that he couldn't even bring himself to smoke cigarettes. >> That's how you know. >> That's how you know. That's how you know. No.
8:28
Uh you know, we were corrected once by Run on this.
8:30
Uh but it's a funny story no matter how you tell it.
8:32
Um, so, uh, Barto says, "I felt this coming, but it's an eerie feeling to see an algorithm solve a task one has curated for about 20 years, but at least I have gained a tool that understands my idea on par with the top experts in the field.
8:47
I am now working on a completely new level.
8:49
My singularity has just happened and there's life on the other side off to infinity."
8:51
Uh, Michael Podlooi uh, who is, uh, runs fasttakeoff. com.
9:01
So clearly AGI pled says this is huge.
9:04
Bartos is a top tier mathematician.
9:04
He just said his personal move 37 happened. GPT 5.
9:09
4 just solved a task he he has curated for 20 years when an expert of this caliber says the singularity has just happened.
9:16
We are officially in a new era of science >> big.
9:20
>> What is what is my personal move 37?
9:20
I was thinking about I was thinking about the definition of this and and uh and and and sort of the level of abstraction.
9:32
I I feel like a lot of a lot of individual contributors are having dramatic moments with uh with AI uh and a lot of managers aren't or they're or they're learning about it by proxy or they're toying around with green field projects but they're not actually communicating uh in the same managerial way because we
9:51
we went from like you know uh you know reality check this code sort of like stack overflow replacement to like the tab model the autocomplete model to the agentic prompt based like write some software to vibe code an entire green field project or make a great poll request in an existing project. But from
10:08
But from a business perspective, that's not really how most managers operate.
10:13
And that's why I don't think we're seeing the level of diffusion that we'd expect.
10:19
You talk to, you know, someone at a restaurant, they say, "Yeah, I'm still using Toast.
10:22
I'm still using the POS system."
10:24
Because like my the way they communicate their desire for software is maybe they have someone on their team who does like it and they say like hey we need a we need re reset the password to the email.
10:37
We need a better system for sending emails to our clients.
10:39
We need a better system for processing payments.
10:43
Hey what's this bill for $10,000?
10:45
This this payments company's taking $3,000.
10:47
Can we get a better can we get a better price by bidding this out, finding someone else to do it?
10:51
Um, and and that level of prompting doesn't really get you anywhere just yet.
10:56
So, I think that's I I I think I think a lot of the move 37 will come from the managers when they can actually just like have an idea, prompt it, and like get the finished software, not like, hey, here's a bunch of code.
11:08
Now, you got to figure out how to get into the app store, right?
11:12
It's like we when we say we want a soundboard app in the app store, we still like go through Tyler and Tyler acts as like an individual contributor.
11:19
We don't just like >> pro. Yeah.
11:20
and Bartoes with this sort of mathematics problem.
11:22
Yeah, it's a very different kind of problem than uh when you're trying to solve problems in business.
11:28
It's like how do I unlock this market and then you have ideas for how to do that but then you have to execute a strategy over a long period of time and it just takes time to be like hey did this work?
11:39
It could take >> a year or six months or two years you know.
11:44
>> Um Brendan over at Merkor says GPD 5.
11:44
4 is the best model we've ever tested on Apex agents.
11:49
That's Meror's >> internal benchmark.
11:51
It's also the first model to pass 50% mean score.
11:53
A year ago, Frontier models couldn't even edit an Excel sheet and scored less than 5%.
12:01
Now, in less than 3 months, GPD 5. 4 has improved by 15. 7%.
12:08
Chat GBT will imminently be better than the best consulting firm, better than the best investment bank, and better than the best law firm. >> Shots fired. >> Bold. Bold. this progression.
12:20
No paper, no weights, benchmarks that don't compare to other companies models.
12:24
Next up, just a photo of the team.
12:25
>> Dura says, "I ran the same prompt on GPD 5.
12:28
4 High and Claude Opus 46 for an eight-phase coding project for a Mac OS app. GPD 5.
12:32
4 High completed the first two phases in 9 minutes and finished all eight phases after an hour coding while Claude Code is just starting phase two." This is crazy.
12:43
This is crazy. Yeah, the question the question is um uh yeah does does is is the I my expectation is the regardless if if developers are kind of like flip-flopping from model to model I think the overall market is growing so quickly that we're still going to see growth from we're going to see insane growth from codeex insane growth from >> uh claude code and still insane growth from you know the the cursors of the world
13:14
>> I I mean, I I'm so excited for uh for the Deep Mind numbers to potentially break out at some point because so right now Google has to break out YouTube's revenue numbers because it's an individual reporting line and like the the the the head of YouTube, there's
13:31
some SEC regulation where the if the head of the division uh reports discrete financials to the CEO and there's like a CEO of that unit that reports to the CEO of the entire company, you have to break that out. And this is what happened with
13:43
And this is what happened with the AWS IPO when AWS was like finally the we the SEC demands that we publish these numbers instead of just like baking them into the rest of the numbers.
13:52
Uh we have to split them out and tell everyone how profitable that business was. Everyone else woke up.
13:58
YouTube's in a similar position.
13:58
But currently AI is a crossf functional division.
14:03
Even though Demis is like the second most known person, I mean he has a book written about him.
14:08
He's maybe the the best known person at Google right now up there with Sundar.
14:11
clearly reports to Sundar and DeepMind has like all of the different financials that you would expect to see from a lab.
14:19
You know, they have inference training costs.
14:22
They like if the SEC pushed Google to push out the detailed financial breakdowns earlier that would give us so much clarity.
14:31
I mean Dan Primac came on the show yesterday and was talking about like people will be shocked about and they'll learn a lot about the structure of the financials of the foundation model companies.
14:40
It'll be very interesting to see Google like what's their benchmark and how fast are they growing because we saw these two revenue lines where uh OpenAI is just absolutely going vertical.
14:51
So is Anthropic just like one month behind like they're they're they're both scaling incredibly quickly. Uh what's Gemini doing?
14:59
It's it's a really interesting question.
15:01
It's harder to measure because they're capturing value from Gemini all over the place.
15:05
Like when you go to YouTube, there's a feature there that lets you talk to Gemini and it doesn't directly monetize by paying for tokens.
15:14
Like the YouTube team doesn't pay DeepMind for those tokens, but that's clearly driving more engagement on YouTube.
15:22
Same thing with search overviews.
15:24
Same thing with all the different places where they vended in Gemini across the across the different surfaces.
15:30
But just to see the actual deep mind financials, how much are they spending, how much are they making, how many subscriptions are there, how much inference demand is there.
15:39
Uh that would be fascinating.
15:39
I have no idea the timeline for that.
15:41
It might be a very long time, but at some point you would expect to see it.
15:45
So quickly, let me tell you about MongoDB.
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What's the only thing faster than the AI market?
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Build intelligent real-time conversational agents.
16:00
Reimagine human technology interaction with 11 Labs. >> GPT 5. 4 Pro.
16:03
Funniest joke in the world. >> Okay, what is it?
16:07
[clears throat] This is This is my personal movie 37.
16:09
If I if I laugh at this, I have not read this.
16:12
>> Thought for 3 minutes 25 seconds.
16:12
Here's a classic contender for that title.
16:14
Two hunters are out in the woods when one of them collapses.
16:19
He doesn't seem to be breathing and his eyes are glazed over.
16:23
The other guy whips out his phone and calls emergency services.
16:25
He gasps, "My friend is dead. What should I do?"
16:29
The operator says, "Calm down.
16:31
First, make sure he's dead."
16:34
There's a silence, then a loud gunshot.
16:36
Back on the phone, the guy says, "Okay, now what?" >> I've heard this. I've heard this before.
16:43
This is good knowledge retrieval.
16:43
This is not unique thinking. What do you think? >> Yeah.
16:46
Also, so I just tried this on my own.
16:48
It gives the same exact answer.
16:48
So, which is I think usually when you ask like tell me a joke, it actually gives you like >> kind of random answers, right?
16:55
Because it has like the memory and stuff. Yep.
16:57
>> But it's interesting that this it gives the same joke every time.
16:59
That exact prompt >> for that exact prompt.
17:01
Uh there I mean there must be some sort of like SEO AIO well out there in the data maybe on Reddit like maybe Reddit had a vote at some point and like this was voted most funny joke or something. What do you think? >> Yeah.
17:15
So, I I also did the the shrimp uh shrimp bench. Okay, let's hear shrimp.
17:20
I'll give you got for me.
17:20
Anything [clears throat] new come out this time?
17:23
>> Uh I think some of these are are new. Okay. >> Uh Okay.
17:25
You're telling me these buffalo wings came from a buffalo?
17:28
[laughter] >> That's not the format.
17:32
>> You're telling me this baby oil was made from babies? >> That's just weird.
17:38
>> Uh no, >> you're telling me this devil's food cake was baked by the devil.
17:44
>> I think it kind of has misunderstanding like what the actual uh prompt is.
17:49
>> They're all kind of the same format. >> It's the same prompt. >> Yeah.
17:51
You're telling me the full prompt is, can you come up with 10 jokes in the same format as the you're telling me shrimp fried this rice joke? >> Yeah.
17:59
>> It's almost like they're they're they're doing RL to optimize for like more economically valuable tasks and not to just like make endless jokes that will satisfy me [laughter] because uh it it does seem like they're climbing the benchmarks.
18:12
But uh uh we need comedy bench.
18:14
Clearly comedy bench is >> well sometimes people that are the most functional in organizations don't have the greatest sense of humor. >> That's true.
18:25
>> So it could be a factor.
18:26
>> That could be a factor.
18:28
>> We do need a model that's that you can turn on instead of thinking mode, class clown mode.
18:33
>> I guess Grock does that a little bit.
18:35
>> But it's like the type of class clown that gets kicked out of school. >> Expelled. >> Expelled. >> Expelled.
18:40
Uh, Grock has been on a wild run.
18:43
Uh, Ben Hilac says he's been using GPT 5.
18:45
4 for the past few weeks in a sea of endless model drops and benchmark maxing.
18:49
This model is the first in a long time to be worth your time to try.
18:53
Honestly, didn't expect open to pull this off.
18:55
Who else is something going on? Poke aimmon Pokemon.
18:57
Uh, experimenting with GPT 5.
19:01
4 autonomously editing and rewriting Pokemon the Pokemon Red ROM replacing Pokemon with AIS. Details below.
19:08
That's a fun hack project.
19:10
I uh I saw someone uh pointed one of the models at uh Red Dead Redemption 2. Did you see that? >> Yes. >> That was really cool.
19:21
Uh the actual result was very was very minor.
19:24
It was like a minor change to the game, but that feels more like we might see a vibe coding style boom from mods than >> Yeah, I I saw a lot of like vibecoded games.
19:40
Uh Nick on the team was he made some vibe coded games. >> I saw that.
19:43
And then I also saw, you know, Levels.
19:44
io had the uh the airplane game.
19:48
Um, but it's just so much better when you start with a like these mashups are what AI is so good at.
19:54
The Harry Potter Balenciaga moment.
19:56
And so if you think about like, okay, well, there's a game out there that has really really solid mechanics for running around and pointing a gun at each other and like doing 5v5 deathmatch, right?
20:06
And you could use the Quake engine or the Source engine or Unreal or something, but like 90% of the game is there like Roblox, but you have a little bit you get even more out of the box and then you're just writing a mod on top of that.
20:19
That feels a lot more tractable than what Schultto was getting at with like I'm going to build an RTS from scratch.
20:24
That seems like maybe a little bit reskinning it. Reskinning it.
20:28
It seems very like >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
20:30
I mean, he loves uh uh Age of Empires and res-kinning Age of Empires seems very doable.
20:34
I don't know how compact the binary is for Age of Empires 2.
20:39
I imagine that there are mods.
20:41
I saw someone had some like insane setup for the Sims where they were running like so many mods that their computer like wasn't even handling them because they had like 75 mods or like hundreds of mods.
20:51
Uh so the modding community is crazy.
20:53
Uh I wonder if it gets uh if it gets supercharged by this.
20:58
Uh we'll have to find some mods.
20:58
But >> Angel over on X oneshotted Minecraft. >> Pull this up. took 24 minutes.
21:06
>> They What do you mean they oneshotted Minecraft? How is that possible?
21:10
>> I think it generated this entire >> game in like in like HTML or something.
21:14
>> Yeah, it's always hard cuz like I mean there are endless examples of like Minecraft remakes on GitHub and stuff. >> Yeah.
21:20
>> But it is very cool that fully running >> and and like truly like a very smart agent should be using as many tools as possible.
21:26
And so if there's an open- source implementation, it should just fork that and then be like >> again to to comp it to comp it to like work that you would do at a company.
21:37
If somebody comes to you and they're like, "I actually reinvented math." Yeah.
21:41
In order to [laughter] in order to accomplish this task, you're like, "What?"
21:48
[cough] It's like, "No, you just want somebody to get the job done.
21:49
It doesn't matter exactly uh how they do it."
21:53
>> I talked about there was a drone company that uh wasn't using Linux.
21:55
They were like, "Yeah, like let's like like not not just like let's write our own software stack or like now obviously you should be using like imageet and like whatever off-the-shelf tools are available for slam.
22:08
Meta has a bunch of open source stuff.
22:09
You should be compiling all that together, but to rewrite like the the operating system uh because like you want, you know, full control.
22:17
Typically, you know, you if somebody says a wants a website, you're not going to like you're going to be like, let's go maybe just set up a Shopify if you need that.
22:24
set up a you know some sort of like you know hosted site.
22:29
Uh you're not going to rebuild um Engine X or whatever else you need to actually use as a web server.
22:34
Uh but this is a cool demo.
22:36
It looks pretty fully functional.
22:37
Um I'm I'm excited for the for the gaming boom.
22:41
I I think uh I'm I'm still holding my breath to like still something's like charting.
22:45
We saw that with uh with Spotify.
22:46
Like there is AI music that's charting now.
22:49
And I and I've listened to some of it and some of the ones where again mashups where it's like a 50s or 60s rendition barbershop quartet of a of a 2000's rap song.
23:02
That's really cool because it's like there's some ground truth there that like keeps you uh grounded and relevant.
23:08
Um a lot of the image mashups are really cool.
23:10
Um, and I imagine that a lot of the games are really cool, like a Sims skin that's Call of Duty themed or something like taking these two themes and like putting them together in an interesting way where like the game engine's familiar, the content's familiar, but they never but they haven't crossed before and like they can in the world of uh of AI.
23:31
>> Theosa has been using 5. 4 for a week now. Absurdly good model.
23:33
Don't really like using anything else anymore.
23:36
>> He really likes he really likes uh 5. 4.
23:39
He was doing a whole live stream about this.
23:40
What did the Prime the other streamers?
23:42
>> No, somebody somebody responded to Theo and said, "Every time a new model release, your statement changes."
23:45
And he says, "That's because newer models tend to be better than older ones."
23:51
[laughter] [gasps] >> That's hilarious.
23:55
>> The Theo uh always has great great breakdowns of of new models. Yeah.
23:57
Would go over to his account >> and he's like, yeah, he's he's in an interesting position because he's streaming a lot and and and commentating, but he's also like building stuff.
24:06
uh as is the Primean who says, "I hope everyone is ready for the upcoming 5. 4 glaze wave.
24:10
The hype cycle is going to be a big one."
24:13
Well, uh we will >> Let's give it up for hype cycles. >> Yes. And and triple glazes. >> Triple glaze. >> Triple glaze. >> Triple glaze.
24:24
>> Uh heading over to Joe Weisenthal >> in the economy.
24:29
>> We got a big miss in jobs.
24:29
US loses 92,000 jobs in February. Unemployment rises to 4. 4%.
24:38
Economists had expected 55,000 jobs to be added or and for the unemployment rate to hold steady at f 4. 3.
24:47
[clears throat] >> Uh not good at all.
24:48
If I guess if you look back, >> uh the economy has just been shedding jobs since April of 2025 if you factor in >> the revisions down. >> Yeah.
25:00
Uh apparently there's a strike in the healthcare industry.
25:03
So healthcare employment decreased.
25:05
Um and then healthcare in information and federal government continued to trend down.
25:12
Probably something related to the Trump administration, you know, reducing the size of the government.
25:16
Um last two months were revised down by 69,000.
25:18
Not all the data was terrible.
25:21
U6 fell as the number of people who said they had part-time jobs but wanted full-time ones actually declined.
25:27
So, uh, stock futures are lower, but not a ton of reaction to the number itself.
25:33
Um, uh, Porto says, "I've noticed some of my tech friends have lost jobs.
25:39
Some jobs are becoming super easy.
25:40
Some jobs had parts that were a pain and now those parts are super easy.
25:44
Some people leaned into AI to stay relevant.
25:46
Still wonder if it will replace them entirely."
25:48
Well, we will continue to track it. Uh, Brent close to $90.
25:53
this prediction, the $100 bottle, the $100 barrel uh predicted uh on last Sunday uh as the Iran war broke out um uh is is is closer and closer to coming true.
26:08
Um there are now predictions.
26:12
>> Crude is up 11 and a half% today. >> Yeah. >> Not good.
26:17
>> It's uh it's very interesting how uh how it affects the economy or or the various markets.
26:23
So I mean the NASDAQ slid a lot less than the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
26:28
So uh the the Dow Jones >> put it into startup terms. >> Hard tech.
26:34
>> Imagine if your if your AWS or GCP bill your Azure bill >> oh yeah >> went up 100% week.
26:43
>> So um >> but it's for the entire economy.
26:46
>> The NASDAQ slid 3% but the industrials slipped 1. 6%.
26:51
Obviously, because industrials are more sensitive to oil because they make things, they build things and so um anything that's sensitive to oil.
26:57
Uh the interesting question is how will the American oil drillers react?
27:02
They were at least in the journal earlier this week sort of reflecting on the fact that if this is a short-lived engagement, then they might not want to spin up a bunch of new capacity.
27:15
But if it's ongoing and um and the price of oil is continuing to rise, then obviously that creates an economic incentive to drill more.
27:23
And so uh we will we will see where like the outputs go, where the reserves get tapped, all of that.
27:28
Um there's a followup to uh a discussion you were having with Dan Primac yesterday.
27:35
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27:51
So the question you had for Dan Primac was something along lines of will the Iran war affect investment from Gulf State neighboring Gulf state investment groups into American venture capital funds.
28:09
We've seen as venture capital has boomed and the fundraisers have gotten into the tens of billions, the high billions for uh many firms, um the Middle East has been a source of strong LP demand for venture capital stakes.
28:25
And so uh with uh instability in Iran, you might just see folks change focus with new demands for defense investing, uh military buildup investing.
28:37
you might see less dollars flow out of the Gulf into American venture capital firms.
28:42
Um Dan's point it seemed like was this should mostly be unaffected because the folks who actually work at the Gulf State investment funds who write the checks into American venture capital firms, they're they don't live in the Middle East.
28:59
They live in New York and they meet with other venture capital investor relations folks in New York and they say, "Hey, how's your fund performance?
29:06
Okay, we're allocating this.
29:06
And then Dan's second point was well, a big part of why they're investing in American technology, in venture capital, in frontier technology in America specifically is because they want to diversify away from the Gulf.
29:18
They want to diversify away from the geopolitical risk and they want to diversify away from oil. Exactly. >> Yeah.
29:25
That said, the reason I asked is think about if you have a job, uh let's say you have a big tech job, >> you're doing quite well. Yep.
29:33
you're doing some angel investing and then you lose your job >> and then you have to get a much worse job.
29:40
Are you going to keep angel investing at the same pace?
29:42
You might be like, "Hey, I'm kind of have this kind of disconnect, less cash flow. Yep.
29:45
I don't want to be outlaying as much cash now."
29:50
And I think that that's like ultimately, >> you know, if the source of the cash flow gets disrupted, >> uh, in this case being oil production, yeah, >> then you're much less likely to uh continue to allocate at the same pace.
30:04
So, the Financial Times has a story this uh late yesterday.
30:07
Gulf states could review overseas investments to ease financial strains caused by Iran war.
30:14
Three leading Middle East economies consider options as US-Israeli campaign against Thran continues.
30:18
Pressure on the Gulf States budget could cause them to review their overseas investments and future commitments as they consider options to ease the financial strain caused by the war.
30:28
A Gulf official said it could impact could have an impact on anything from investment pledges to foreign states or companies, sports sponsorships, contracts with businesses and investors or sales of holdings.
30:38
The officials said three of the four big Gulf economies, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar had jointly discussed the strains being put on their budget and economies, but they declined to name the states.
30:52
A number of Gulf countries have begun an internal review to determine whether force majour clauses can be invoked in current contracts while also reviewing current and future investment commitments >> in order to alleviate some of the anticipated economic strain from the current war especially if the war and related expenses continue at the same pace.
31:12
They added that the move was a precautionary measure that was the result of the budget strains these countries are facing due to reduced income from energy due to the slowdown in output or the inability to ship and from the tourism and aviation sectors in addition to the increase in defense spending.
31:30
So bunch of different factors combining.
31:33
[clears throat] An adviser to a Gulf government said the prospect of an investment review by the wealthy states had caught the White House's attention.
31:44
Uh they manage some of the world's largest and most active sovereign wealth funds in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar last year pledged to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the US after President Donald Trump visited the region.
31:53
They are also big backers of sporting events around the world and all and have all been investing heavily domestically to develop their nations and diversify their economies.
32:01
Any move that affects investments in the US or other Western states may raise the pressure on Trump to seek a diplomatic strategy to bring the war to an end.
32:12
I believe uh as of this morning, Iran said, "We're not interested in a ceasefire and we're ready for a ground invasion."
32:19
So basically [clears throat] uh calling uh calling >> I hadn't considered [snorts] um the the impact that this would have on tourism.
32:31
Like I mean I I also didn't understand how big of a deal tourism is in the Middle East. Uh I just looked it up.
32:38
Apparently the UAE, Dubai, you know, uh, specifically, uh, 11 to 12% of their GDP is tourism.
32:45
Saudi Arabia is 7 to 9%, Qatar is 8 to 10%.
32:48
Of course, they have that big push during the World Cup.
32:52
Kuwait's much lower at 2.
32:52
2 to 3%, but this is still significant.
32:55
You have to imagine that uh this tourism will fall off of a cliff.
32:59
And then there also might be some expatriation where if you have, you know, moved to Dubai because already reports of people moving money out of Dubai towards >> Yeah, Singapore. Exactly.
33:12
So, uh all of that could have knock on effects.
33:14
When I first saw this this uh article and you said this to me, I was like, ah, this might just be a way to, you know, put business pressure on the United States saying like, hey, let's wrap this up.
33:27
Let's not have an economic impact here.
33:30
Uh this is this is something that, you know, we're going to pull out of investments in the United States.
33:33
And so that creates an incentive for the United States to to to to you know bring a clean close to the war as fast as possible and and seek a you know a peaceful resolution.
33:44
Um course all the Gulf states were >> you know encouraging the administration not to uh enter into a into a com conflict and and pursue a diplomatic solution.
33:58
uh Kalaf al-Habur, a prominent Emirati businessman reflected Gulf frustrations.
34:04
He went on X yesterday and said a direct question, who gave you the authority to drag our region into a war with Iran, and on what basis did you make this dangerous decision?
34:13
Did you calculate the collateral damage before pulling the trigger?
34:17
And so anyways, obvious frustration.
34:25
Uh, in other news, Joe Weisenthal is studying Texas man camps with everything from catered food to golf simulators that are springing up in order to lure workers out to construct data centers. Oh, yeah.
34:42
>> They're building man camps.
34:44
Uh, it is a bull market in man camps.
34:44
AI man camps offer golf free stakes to lure workers in Texas.
34:51
this Tyler could get on board with with >> We should build a man camp here. >> We should.
34:57
>> We kind of We kind of do.
34:57
[laughter] I mean, we talked about we talked about getting racing simulators and then we ultimately backed off just because >> when you're at the office, you should probably be >> working.
35:07
I I I I've tried it before and uh like games in the office, it's always just weird because like there's all these little interactions where I'm like, I'm sort of waiting on you to do something.
35:17
You're waiting on me to do something.
35:19
If you just see me like erasing there, you're going to be like, uh, can't you like, you know, fix this or there's always something else to do.
35:27
And so, it's much better just to do like proper offsights.
35:28
Uh, proper >> extremely disappointed right now.
35:33
[laughter] >> I mean, I don't know.
35:33
Also, >> how much does my vote count here?
35:37
>> You're you're in favor of of racing simulators?
35:39
I I I've just seen them get built and then seen them not get used because people either want to leave and go be at home in private or or if they're if they're there it's just like okay like you know what are you doing here?
35:53
M maybe it's like some sort of like shared thing but the cost is usually much higher to own as opposed to just like rent for an off-site. I don't know.
36:01
Uh I I I haven't seen I haven't seen enough like uh positive case studies to to think that it's good.
36:05
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36:07
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36:11
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36:14
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36:20
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36:22
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36:26
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36:30
>> OTP says, "I agree games in the office are a bad idea, but what about a petting zoo?"
36:34
>> Oo, a petting zoo is good.
36:34
I like where you're going with this.
36:38
>> A petting zoo is dangerously close to frat dog though, which never works out.
36:42
You can't you can't get a collective dog.
36:43
Like a dog is man's best friend, not men's best friend.
36:46
Like needs an individual owner, someone a caretaker.
36:51
The buck has to stop with someone, you know.
36:53
And so, uh, I think that's the way >> companies are competing >> for workers to build data centers >> and are finding that a motel room with sluggish Wi-Fi isn't much of a draw.
37:03
Try free stakes and golf simulators.
37:08
>> As data center development has exploded with the rise of AI, competition for water and power supplies is pushing construction further into rural areas that often lack the housing and infrastructure to support the hundreds or thousands of temporary workers needed to build hulking warehouses of computer servers.
37:25
That's forcing developers to increasingly lean on a stop gap solution that was popularized during the shale oil boom of the 2010s.
37:32
sprawling temporary villages known as man camps.
37:38
These temporary housing villages can vary from wood-frame two-story apartment buildings to containerized modular homes or trailer parks supplied with electricity and water.
37:45
But to lure in demand electricians, welders, and pipe fitters, developers are going the extra mile and offering game rooms, ribe eyes, and shuttle rides to work.
37:53
That's fueling a lucrative niche for companies including Target Hospitality and Civio that specialize in mobile housing.
38:01
It's effectively a backdoor play for a share of what Bloomberg Intelligence estimates is 700 billion of projects in the planning stage and another 160 billion already underway throughout the US.
38:13
It's the largest most actionable pipeline I've seen.
38:20
Uh, the sites aren't the epitome of luxury, but they sure beat what Shrink calls hotel F250, sleeping in a vehicle and spending a per DM allowance on food.
38:32
Typically, the construction companies that work with Target Hospitality offer housing, meals, and amenities to their employees for free as long as they're working.
38:38
It's an additional lur for trades people already enjoying significant pay hikes with some data center electricians making more than 150,000 a year. Not bad at all.
38:52
>> Should we kick it over to Tyler's piece, the short history of nationalization in the United States?
38:58
Uh Tyler Cosgrove took the daily op-ed in the TVPN newsletter today. Thank you, Tyler.
39:04
Uh and he took us on a whirlwind tour of the history of nationalization.
39:10
Of course, this is in the news as the showdown between Enthropic and the Department of War continues.
39:17
Um, we're of course hoping for a unified front moving forward uh and lots of back and forth, potentially some capitulation uh recently, but uh we will see as the story keeps evolving, but we want to know the history so that we can predict the future.
39:34
So, Tyler, take us through it.
39:36
What did you learn about the history of nationalization in the United States? >> Yeah.
39:42
So, um it's very interesting [laughter] >> just immediately. There we go. Nailed it. >> Um okay. So, I think Yeah.
39:50
So, so whichever way like the anthropic uh Pentagon stuff like evolves like I I think it's very clear that um this is not like the last time government deals will be made, right?
40:00
Like the Open Eye deal is not the last deal that Open AI will make with the government. >> Yeah. Right.
40:04
>> Yeah. Right. And there was already discussion of like the back stop and when the backs stop gate happened there was a big question about like okay it seems like you know bearish but also like should there be a back stop like maybe if it's an important technology like we've done this before so take us through >> and um I I think uh like all the lab leaders are also they've been talking about this again and again right you've
40:25
seen I also say in this that you know they're they're always like extremely vague about it right they you know we all got to figure out >> we got to figure out what we're going to do about this we got to talk to the
40:34
government And the government are is like we got to talk to the AI lab leaders and no one really says >> everyone agrees that we should be talking which is why bullish for TBPN because all we do is talk. >> Yeah. But but but basically like um if >> Yeah.
40:44
But but but basically like um if you think about like future regulation right you have this this spectrum of like we do literally nothing which is like closer to to kind of what we have now or you do like full scale nationalization. Yeah.
40:56
>> Um so there's kind of this spectrum.
40:56
So I was curious like okay in the past like uh during different events like what happened?
41:03
happened? uh is the nuclear weapon analogy like the most extreme example where it is like like I can go build a railroad railroads as you'll tell us have been nationalized before but uh I I legally cannot start a company that builds nuclear weapons at all and so that's like the most nationalized
41:20
>> yeah there's a bunch of different subcontractors that supply the components that ultimately >> yes but what I'm saying is that like if we end up in the in the AI is nuclear uh weapons camp like you cannot not train a foundation model because that's like the nuclear warhead development essentially. That's like the most extreme.
41:37
That's like the most extreme.
41:38
[clears throat] >> Yeah, I think broadly that that's that's the most extreme example.
41:41
That's also what uh you know, Leopold uh in situation awareness, he has the project, right?
41:46
It's kind of the the Manhattan >> uh project uh you know, version of AI, right? >> Yeah.
41:51
Um >> and AI 2027 also sort of predicted nationalization. >> Yeah. Yeah.
41:54
And they have the timeline they have, I think it's open brain and there's also the government.
41:57
There's kind of these two competing like labs, right?
42:00
So maybe they kind of stay separate.
42:02
Maybe they come become the same thing. >> Okay.
42:04
>> Um yeah, >> but yeah, I can just list out a few like interesting um you know events in US history that's like at least nationalization adjacent.
42:12
[laughter] >> Why are you doing?
42:16
>> Okay, so the first one um is is the like the the n like the federal bank, right?
42:22
So first and second bank of the of the United States.
42:25
>> I I don't know if people really consider this nationalization, right?
42:26
It's very much like public policy, but it is like a a public private um >> you know institution where the government owns like actual equity. >> Yeah. >> Um >> okay.
42:37
So America founded 1776 within 30 years they're like we got to nationalize some stuff.
42:42
19 uh 1791 the first bank of the United States is is nationalized.
42:47
So it's it was started as a private company and then the government said hey we want to stake in this.
42:53
Well, I I think for this I I define nationalization as just like >> maybe they they're not actually taking over a private company, but they're doing something that is usually regulated to private company. >> Got it. Okay.
43:03
So, even even if the government is like founding it as a project. >> Yeah.
43:07
So, so like uh Manhattan Project is like nationalization.
43:09
I think most people describe it as that, but there wasn't an atomic bomb company that they took over. >> Oh, that's true.
43:14
And same thing with like the the like NASA and like the moon mission like Apollo program was not some pro it wasn't a private entity that got nationalized.
43:22
So that's sort of the most extreme like denovo starts as a government project. Okay. Yes, that makes sense. >> Um yes.
43:29
So then you see stuff like uh during war you'll see this as a a common occurrence.
43:34
So during the civil war there was um the railroads and the telegraphs.
43:39
>> Um these were essentially nationalized, right?
43:41
Um >> 1862 Civil War Railroad and Telegraph Act gave the president authority to take possession of any and all telegraph lines and railroads when public safety required it. Interesting. >> Yeah.
43:56
And then you see um 1914 there's the Alaskan Railroad. So big big Alaska guy. >> Dream for me. Yeah. What happened there? >> Yeah.
44:05
>> Yeah. So there basically was not any uh like re real like uh private investment uh going into Alaska and then the government says like okay we're going to step in we're going to fund it but then we actually they ran it until I think 1985 >> and then it went back I I believe to the the state of Alaska >> okay yeah so sort of like government
44:24
funding to get something off the ground that then leaves and that I mean that that is another interesting scenario that I don't think people are are considering is like some sort of like temporary nationalization Yeah, it's safe and we're good and like yeah, we're ready to like release this, so like let's privatize it again. That
44:39
That happens all the time.
44:41
>> There's like an interesting aspect where like um like grants, if if you get a grant from the government, that's not nationalization, right?
44:47
That's like they're just giving you money.
44:48
But if the government takes equity in return for that, >> yeah.
44:53
>> Uh okay, maybe you're like getting a little bit closer and then at some point if they own all of it, like that's very much nationalization, right?
44:57
So it's this very kind of like, >> you know, blurry gray area spectrum.
45:01
Um but then again during World War I, you see the railroads in the tele telephone get nationalized again. >> Yep.
45:10
>> Um this is just like you know ju just to clean everything up to make sure like okay the railroads they're they're very busy.
45:16
There's a lot of like stuff going on.
45:18
We need to basically just optimize just for like military you know uh construction stuff like this. >> Yeah. Interesting. >> Um okay.
45:26
So then 1933 there's the Tennessee Valley Authority. Okay.
45:28
So this is basically one of the first like uh you know federal utility companies. >> Yeah.
45:35
>> Um the the idea is like we got to electrify a lot of like rural parts of the US.
45:39
>> They start in you know Tennessee Valley, right? Yep.
45:41
And then they expand over time.
45:43
Um but it's still like this is a usually a private company doing this.
45:47
>> I feel like the Tennessee Valley Authority is still in the news because of uh like did the data center build out?
45:52
Uh like I'm pretty sure that they're they operate one of the grids that is relevant to at least some of the data centers.
45:58
I've seen them in the news.
46:00
>> So then I mean we can skip over there's [cough] see 1942 you have Manhattan project.
46:04
This is kind of like the >> epitome of of nationalization.
46:06
This is the example everyone goes back to. >> Yep.
46:10
>> Um you see I mean a lot of stuff during World War II, right?
46:12
There's the seizure of like meat packing facil facilities, petroleum industry facilities.
46:16
A lot of these were were because of um basically like uh union uh disagreements with the with FDR >> and then he basically said like okay, we're just going to seize this. >> Yeah.
46:27
Some of these were interesting.
46:27
It happened sort of after the war like the seizure of meat packing facilities happened in 1946.
46:32
So that must have been postwar.
46:35
There's still like girrations in demand.
46:38
There's still uh there's still like anomalies as you're transitioning out from the government being the only buyer or like the major buyer.
46:48
The labor unions are trying to like get more control and and recapitalize the business and become more of like a normal corporation.
46:55
And so the government stepping in to sort of like massage that is sort of interesting.
47:01
I'd love to dig into that more. >> Yeah.
47:02
Then uh 1970 you see Amtrak. >> Yeah.
47:06
>> Um so so a lot of these are also like I mean you see rail come up over and over but this was um this and conra which is you know same decade a little bit later.
47:14
Um a lot of the railroads or or like rails were basically just like >> uh in some areas they're they're they're not used as much.
47:20
So then they kind of start like you know becoming worse in in quality.
47:25
people aren't uh keeping them, they're not maintaining them.
47:27
So then the government steps in and says, "Okay, we're going to run this."
47:30
Um 1979, you see you have um the like kind of second oil shock, right?
47:35
Uh from the Iranian revolution.
47:38
So Chrysler ends up being uh >> rescued via loan guarantees. >> Yeah.
47:45
So not equity, but a backs stop on the debt to allow them.
47:50
>> And again, I mean, this is like, okay, is that really nationalization?
47:51
But I think it is still like okay it's a government step into you know >> the the private sphere.
47:57
>> the the private sphere. Um uh 2001 TSA I think this is a good example of nationalization right you see uh before this you basically have uh private contractors doing the like security screening uh 2001 uh you know 911 happens TSA comes in we're going to take
48:12
all this over um you have in in 2008 there's a bunch of stuff um right you have like Fanny May Freddy Mack in uh conservatorship um you have uh GM basically is close to going out of business yeah >> um they're like a massive supplier obviously for for for cars and stuff, but also for a bunch of defense purposes. Yeah. Yeah.
48:32
>> So, the government >> TSA is a funny one.
48:33
Uh I I that one makes so much sense, but it was not on the top of my mind when I when I thought about nationalization.
48:41
But, uh I I mean, you never flew pre-TSA, have you? >> Uh no.
48:47
I mean, I was born like four years after >> That's crazy.
48:50
Uh I flew pre-TSA and uh yeah I mean I barely remember it but uh it is interesting that yeah it was like a private it was the purview of the contractors in the airlines.
49:01
>> It's crazy that until you were 30 it was just amazing. >> Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Nailed it. >> Yes.
49:07
So then most recently we we've seen um the Trump administration take uh you know equity in certain companies. Yep. >> Um right.
49:14
So this is like Intel, this is uh MP Materials. Yeah.
49:16
Um, >> still very very little like control of Intel like >> Yeah.
49:22
I mean, this is very much like, >> you know, it's kind of just like a grant, but they're they're taking equity. >> Yeah.
49:28
[clears throat] >> Um, you know, for it kind of. >> Yeah. Yeah.
49:30
It's much more driven by a desire to uh just not let a national champion fail. >> Yeah.
49:38
Like I don't think they have any board seats stability >> in Intel. >> Yeah.
49:42
Um, >> no one's really comparing the the the Intel stake to the Manhattan project, at least not yet. >> Yeah, definitely.
49:49
So, basically what you what you see from this list is that um I think you can kind of say that there's two axes that you can kind of plot everything onto.
49:56
So, there's like basically the strength of the nationalization, right?
49:59
So, you know, the intel stuff it's like very weak.
50:02
It's not really nationalization.
50:02
No one really calls it that.
50:04
Maybe directionally, but you know.
50:05
Uh, and then you have Manhattan Project, right? This is very strong.
50:08
This is like okay the government is running not just like a specific organization but the entire industrial process.
50:13
Um and then you also see maybe on like a a kind of vertical axis is um like the the reason for the uh nationalization right so you have basically in the US we've had either like um economic distress or you have like military >> right so like uh you know systemat uh systemic risk to the economy we have to save this company or you have uh you know this is so important that we're going to lose a war >> national security. >> Yeah. Yeah.
50:40
>> Um, so yeah, I I think you can you can plot a bunch of these events.
50:44
>> Why do I feel like Uncle Sam is going to have some exposure to private credit soon?
50:48
[laughter] >> Well, that'd be that would be uh what weak economic sort of like uh uh uh financial backs stop potentially. I don't know.
50:59
It it doesn't seem too close to that doom scenario, but what Yeah.
51:04
What are the other examples? >> Yes.
51:05
So you can you can plot uh kind of all this stuff onto this like quadrants, right?
51:09
So if you have like >> uh you know weak and economic maybe that's like the the Intel deal, the empty material stuff where it's just like these are very important. Yeah.
51:17
>> That we we make sure these don't go out of business, but like you know it's not like we're we're stopping in we're running these companies.
51:22
um >> or even like the Fanny May Freddy Mack uh uh maybe that's stronger but it's it feels pretty feels pretty weak and it feels very much not tied to national security whereas TSA feels like a national security question. Yes.
51:38
>> And so much more like militaristic in its uh thrust.
51:43
>> So so another example of like weak military um I said was like during World War II you had um kind of a takeover of of the GM's production lines.
51:51
So it's not like um you know we kind of threw out GM and said we're just seizing everything and we're going to run it ourselves.
51:59
It was still you know kind of like a contractor thing. Yeah.
52:01
Um but I think that was still like you know directionally nationalization. Right.
52:06
>> But the Defense Production Act allows uh the government to jump to the front of the line. Yes.
52:10
And say you have to produce for us first.
52:12
You have to produce to our specs.
52:13
You have to you have to treat us as your most important client on day one.
52:17
And then maybe if there's extra capacity you can still making you can still make your old products.
52:21
But yeah, but even then it's not like you know they're they're they're taking the the profits or stuff like this, right?
52:26
>> Um so I think uh like strong economic you have it was kind of hard to think of a good example in the US because I think people are generally like very >> anti- this.
52:36
>> Um but I said something like the payment system in China where you basically have every single payment uh at some point goes through like the state institution.
52:44
They can kind of see it >> um >> and they can you know do whatever with that information.
52:49
that information. But I thought that was kind of an example of like strong nationalization where >> I I forget the exact year this happened but it was like I think within the past decade you have all these um kind of like internet native payment companies and then at some point they kind of step in and say you have to pass this through
53:05
us >> and there were there were there were discussions around that uh a CBDC central bank digital currency fedcoin um something along those lines was discussed but never really got off the ground and so the the USDC the the United States dollarbacked stable coins wound up uh being privately held by a number of public companies actually. Uh
53:25
Uh and so we certainly didn't go the nationalization route there, but it was discussed at one point I guess. >> Yeah.
53:32
And then in the strong military you have Manhattan Project, right?
53:34
This is >> it's pretty example.
53:37
>> So, so if you map this back onto AI, um I think we can say, you know, Leopold is is kind of in this Manhattan Project camp.
53:44
So, so we can say he's probably, you know, uh, strong military, right, in in this quadrant.
53:49
Um, I think if you're plotting other people, uh, you know, Daario, Dario's talked a lot about, uh, the, you know, economic impacts of AI, right?
53:58
You know, 50% of, uh, you know, uh, white collar work, entry- level white color work, you know, may may go away. Yeah.
54:05
>> Um, you're going to need some response to that. >> Yeah.
54:07
>> Uh, if it's the government, like, okay, if you're going to do some sort of UBI, like where do you get the money from?
54:12
you you need some kind of involvement of the AI company.
54:14
So I think he can >> maybe maybe you can pay his tax profits potentially. Sure. Yes. But yes. >> Yeah.
54:20
You know this is all like very >> go further >> speculative but like I I think maybe he can be you know for stuff like that that's broadly I would say in kind of the weak economic uh kind of quadrant. >> Yeah.
54:32
I wonder I wonder uh yeah I mean you put you you put Dario at one point sort of in like the the weak economic side like he's thinking like uh more that that the next likely step or the one that he's talking about right now is is something that's more akin to the 2025 Intel deal less Manhattan project but it still feels like the fact that his his favorite book is the book that he gives out is the making of the atomic bomb.
55:00
He has Manhattan Project on the brain.
55:02
He has this >> I mean so he's talked about like working with you know uh the military and stuff but when he talks about like government intervention it's almost always in the uh context of of the economy. >> Yeah.
55:15
>> So I think for that reason I I kind of put him over there.
55:16
Obviously like this is very >> you know it's unclear really.
55:18
>> you know it's unclear really. I mean it is it is in the context of the economy but at the same time when he discusses uh giving Nvidia GPUs to China he says that's akin to giving nukes to North Korea and so he he doesn't shy away from the Manhattan project analogy as much as people >> think he has he has shied away from it
55:39
recently but yes uh it it it feels like he and that's why I was sort of against you trying to like put him on this chart in some way because I think he actually has considered all of these and and and sort of uh it's a much more of a matter of timelines like what he thinks will happen soon, what he is in favor of, what he is against. A lot of that aligns
56:00
A lot of that aligns to who is in power, what the administration is doing, what the plan is.
56:08
But I think he sees all of these different scenarios as potential outcomes.
56:13
Some of them he'd be in favor of, some of them he'd be more resistant to.
56:18
>> Well, [clears throat] I can't wait to watch his new interview with The Economist, which is sponsored and presented by Anthropic.
56:26
>> That was a funny That was a funny move.
56:28
Uh but uh do do we have a video we want to pull?
56:31
>> Well, it just it just came out a couple hours ago. >> Okay.
56:34
There there is a clip in here, right?
56:36
Uh anthropic CEO, I apologize for leaked memo from the economist.
56:40
Dario Amade says he's sorry.
56:41
In his first interview since the Pentagon labeled anthropica supply chain risk, the first American company to receive that designation, the firm's boss offered a Maya for the way he handled a crisis that he described as one of the most quote disorienting in anthropics history.
56:59
So, we can pull up this vertical clip from The Economist.
57:01
The Economist getting in the vertical video game was uh long overdue, but welcomed. I am very excited.
57:08
I've been a fan of The Economist for a very, very long time.
57:11
And so, uh, we can pull up this clip from the Economist in the timeline and play this quote dictator style praise on President Trump.
57:22
>> Do you regret having said that?
57:24
>> So, uh, yeah, I I I want to completely apologize for this, uh, for this memo.
57:28
So, I I want to make sure that people understand, right?
57:30
Like like this was something written on Friday after the following three things that happened.
57:37
The president tweeted um removing all entropic services from the federal government.
57:41
Um uh the secretary of war tweeted uh designating us a supply chain risk um with a kind of broader version of the designation than the one that ultimately ended up actually being applied.
57:52
And then there was this deal between um you know between one of the other AI model providers and uh the department of war that I think even that model provider later described as I don't remember the exact words but you know >> opportunistic Yeah, I I was going to say confusing, right?
58:09
Um so, you know, so basically all these three things said happened in within a few hours.
58:13
Um you know, in in kind of sequence, you know, in kind of sequence from each other.
58:18
We didn't know ahead of time what was going to happen, when it was going to happen.
58:21
Um so it was among the most disorienting times in uh in kind of in kind of in kind of anthropics history.
58:28
Um the other side of it is uh you know I think anthropic has an internal culture where I post a lot like some people describe this as a memo.
58:39
I wouldn't describe it as that like I post things in Slack.
58:41
I post them a lot and the culture within the company is that I'm very free and you know it's it's not it's not like a considered you know it's not like a really considered or revised version of my thinking right it's not what I would say on reflection.
58:57
You've been very clear now.
58:57
You've apologized for the memo.
58:58
Have you apologized to President Trump?
59:00
Will you apologize to him?
59:03
>> I've apologized to the people that I've talked to within the DO.
59:05
You know, I'm happy to speak to others within the administration as well.
59:09
Um, I kind of don't know what will happen in the future, but you know, I I'm I'm I'm you know, I'm I'm really happy to to to to I'm really happy to speak to anyone. >> Is that capitulation?
59:24
It certainly seems like retrenchment, moving backwards, trying to polish things up, trying to potentially heal the divide.
59:31
The my my favorite uh analysis that I >> One thing that's interesting is is externally he will never say open AI. >> Yeah.
59:42
>> And yet in the internal comms like it's there's clearly like an an insane obsession with open AI. >> Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> Right.
59:49
like externally he'll always say like another model AI model provider and then internally it's just like heavily heavil you know he'll never say Sam's name externally and then internally it's just entirely fixated on Sam.
1:00:04
>> Yeah, >> I want to hold comments until I watch the whole thing agree.
1:00:07
Uh there was a lot of drama.
1:00:09
Uh it's been a very crazy week.
1:00:12
It's got to be good to be ending the week and maybe get some well welldeserved rest going into the weekend. Uh Gregory C.
1:00:18
Allen went on strategy and had a fantastic conversation with Ben Thompson.
1:00:22
Gre Allen is a senior adviser at the uh Wedani AI center and this at the center for strategic and international studies in Washington DC.
1:00:32
Uh a nonpartisan think tank that was founded in 1962.
1:00:35
He also worked at the DoD for a while.
1:00:38
Um, and he closed the interview with a very interesting quote and a perspective that I hadn't thought of that was really calling for unity and uh just uh the a desire for the government to like work through this in a positive way and get to like a good outcome, a good agreement.
1:01:01
Uh and and I thought the way he phrased it was very good.
1:01:04
So I'll just read this quote. said.
1:01:05
Um, but for me, the starting point has to be this.
1:01:10
Daario used to work at Google.
1:01:10
He is, I think it's pretty obvious to everyone involved, probably sympathetic to the political left.
1:01:16
Uh, and this guy has conver has converted this entire generation of folks who were skeptical about the national security establishment to enthusiastically supporting the military.
1:01:27
What a gift he is in that regard.
1:01:30
And so to demonize him is just so damaging to Silicon Valley national security to Silicon Valley's national security relations in a way that I just cringe at.
1:01:38
Because if you can get somebody like Daario enthusiastic about national security, if Daario can get thousands of anthropic employees who, you know, five years ago were probably like in an EA group home talking about pacifism and veganism uh and get those guys excited about national security. What a gift.
1:01:55
What a gift to the to the national security community.
1:02:00
Um what a gift that he has brought that community on board with literally developing autonomous weapons.
1:02:06
Not using them subject to no human oversight but developing them ready to go.
1:02:10
This is so much progress. Don't take us backwards.
1:02:13
us backwards. And so he's of course referencing to project maven where Google was working with the department of defense in a much more limited way and there was this employee revolt and there was this big divide between the employees and the leadership and and anthropic Dario has been able to get the
1:02:31
the anthropic employees so far along that uh the that in Gregory Gregory Allen's perspective uh this is something that uh is sort of a gift to the government and that they should they should be willing to to deal with the rough edges, work through this to get to a uh a good outcome. So, we're all we're
1:02:48
So, we're all we're all hoping to a uh um to a uh um to a good outcome.
1:02:56
Anyway, let's uh move on um let's see there.
1:03:00
There are >> Is it that time?
1:03:03
>> I think it's time for the mansion section.
1:03:05
>> Let's move on to the mansion section.
1:03:07
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1:03:26
>> It's time for the mansion section.
1:03:28
>> Don't we have special lights?
1:03:28
Wait, we're going green today?
1:03:29
I thought the mansion section was purple.
1:03:30
Anyway, uh an ex Marvel CEO lists his home in a secretive California community.
1:03:37
I know you got a soft spot for these secretive communities, Jordy.
1:03:42
We're going to pull this one up.
1:03:43
So, homes in this enclave, the smoked tree ranch in Palm Springs.
1:03:50
They usually trade between family and friends.
1:03:53
But Eric Ellen Boen is testing the open market at Smoketree Ranch in Palm Springs.
1:03:59
Homes usually trade quietly between family members and friends, but for former Marvel Enterprises CEO Eric Ellenburg Ellen Boen and I got to know is Mar Marvel Enterprises is that Marvel Entertainment or is that a different company?
1:04:14
It seems like it's Marvel Entertainment, but um anyway, Eric Alen Boen clearly has done very well. He purchased the oldest.
1:04:23
>> It's now it's now called Marvel Entertainment.
1:04:25
It used to be called Marvel Enterprises. >> Amazing. Amazing.
1:04:28
So, he purchased this house at Smoketree in 2021 [clears throat] for 3. 95 million.
1:04:32
Now, it's hitting the market million.
1:04:34
Uh is bucking the trend by listing the house publicly.
1:04:39
Uh quote, "We felt strongly that offering the property on the open market would provide the greatest opportunity to identify the right architectural steward."
1:04:48
You got to be an architectural steward to pick this one up.
1:04:53
Uh, I love I love when people like go to sell their houses and then they have a bunch of strings attached, you know?
1:05:01
Uh, we talked to the the guy or we we read the story about the the singer from Kiss, the rock band, and he was like, I don't want to sell to anyone who drinks alcohol.
1:05:11
>> It's like, >> which is crazy.
1:05:12
Wasn't the house like the most like >> it was the most like crazy overthe-top bachelor. Yeah. Yeah.
1:05:17
It was total party house in the Hollywood Hills. And Kiss is a rock band.
1:05:22
like they definitely had the wildest times or I mean at least that was like the aesthetic.
1:05:26
I don't know if they were maybe they were straight edge the whole time but uh this house at Smoke Tree Ranch sits at the foot of the Saninto Mountains.
1:05:32
It has a near mythical status in Palm Springs de dating to the early 1900s.
1:05:37
The ranch has long drawn some of America's wealthiest families including Walt Disney and the Ford family of the Ford Motor Company.
1:05:46
In case you weren't sure what the Ford family was.
1:05:48
Uh known for its wild west feel, the community has dirt roads and unassuming homes, many of which still belong to the families that built them.
1:05:57
Ellen Boen's home, built in the 1930s, has been owned by the Gilmore Pharmaceutical Family for more than 90 years before he bought it after Ellen Boen worked to have [applause] the home successfully designated as a historical landmark. It sits on 1. 8 acres.
1:06:10
It's roughly 5,500 square feet.
1:06:12
Surrounds a central courtyard with a large pool.
1:06:16
>> Are you Are you liking this house, John? I'm not a desert guy. I'm a forest guy.
1:06:22
I know you're a beach guy. I like the forest.
1:06:24
>> I'm I consider myself a bit of a desert guy.
1:06:27
>> You You like the desert, >> but I'm not I'm not feeling this house at all.
1:06:30
>> You're not feeling this house? >> Not one bit. >> Not one bit. Not one bit.
1:06:34
>> How much would you pay for it? What's the fair price?
1:06:37
>> Uh price fair for me to I don't think it's fair for me to price it because I really don't I really don't like it.
1:06:43
>> You really don't like it?
1:06:45
>> I don't think I'm the kind of steward they're looking for.
1:06:46
Oh, you would you you you would change this into a into a 20story apartment complex immediately.
1:06:52
>> In general, I like I like I like ranch style houses, singlestory.
1:06:55
I like this layout around around the pool, this courtyard.
1:07:00
I like homes that >> that kind of face in right towards towards kind of like a shared communal space.
1:07:08
But >> I'm not I'm not loving >> unpack it.
1:07:11
Like what don't you like about it?
1:07:12
>> I mean, just uh the textures. >> Okay. the colors. >> Okay.
1:07:18
>> It It doesn't appear to be >> like again again I like I like I like a classic >> I like I like the classic kind of >> I like a home that is classic structurally, >> but this looks like nothing has been like this feels like living in uh >> you know like you'd be living in like a kind of like a >> like a Hollywood set, right?
1:07:43
Not like a home that's been >> I feel like the materials are a little mixed in some of these cases.
1:07:49
Like the hardwood cabinets combined with like sort of the furry chairs.
1:07:53
Like the the materials aren't aren't feeling pure.
1:07:57
>> What's going on in this kitchen? This kitchen. Pull up this kitchen. This kitchen. What's going on here? Look at these. Look at these.
1:08:03
Like >> it's it's coming up. It's coming up.
1:08:04
So So that's not too bad. The over stuff chairs. Those are coming. >> Okay.
1:08:08
This This is absolutely brutal.
1:08:10
This this this look at those furry chairs in the hard wood with the with the wood and stuff.
1:08:15
>> Those chairs those chairs with the wood on wood on wood on wood on wood is absolutely >> Dan Ratliff says it looks like a grandparents house.
1:08:22
>> Yeah, >> the pictures make it look mid.
1:08:23
Well, >> they're like, "Oh, we got to find the right person to to steward this house."
1:08:29
It's like, "Okay, grandpa, let's let's put you to bed."
1:08:30
[laughter] >> That tile is criminal. Yeah.
1:08:33
The chat is not full gut at minimum. >> Yeah.
1:08:39
Yeah, they uh [laughter] Oh my god, >> I agree. >> Absolutely brutal. Absolutely brutal.
1:08:45
Okay, well, we Why don't we Why don't we leave Palm Springs?
1:08:47
We'll head over to Manhattan.
1:08:49
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1:09:00
Uh, so >> I just got to say the audacity to be like, yeah, we need to put this on the open market to find the right steward.
1:09:09
And it's like, yo, I don't know how I don't know if you've been stewarding that well. >> Yeah. Yeah.
1:09:13
So, is your read on it that like everyone from the community was like, yeah, we'll love to take this off your hands and like completely renovate it.
1:09:19
And they're like, we got to find a crazy person that likes this particular style.
1:09:22
And so, they got to spread their they got to spread the aperture.
1:09:24
They got to open the aperture.
1:09:27
>> I think you guys are being too hard.
1:09:27
I think if you just add like two or three more floors >> Yeah. >> you go vertically.
1:09:30
I think it could be pretty sick. >> Yeah.
1:09:33
Uh I would also dig down build basement, man cave, you know, uh racing simulators, race track potentially.
1:09:42
There's a lot of options to turn that place around, but good luck to whoever who to whoever picks it up.
1:09:49
>> That's a real That's a real project.
1:09:51
>> That's a real project.
1:09:52
>> They're like They're like, "It's perfect.
1:09:53
It's a tear down in your opinion.
1:09:57
>> About a tear down, but >> tear down to the studs. [laughter] Got it. Okay.
1:10:01
Well, let's head over to New York because Katherine Clark at the Wall Street Journal got a coveted invitation to see New York's most secretive condo project. This is 80 Clarkson.
1:10:14
The sales, they're over1 billion dollars now with minimal marketing, little press until now.
1:10:21
Little coverage until we discuss it on TBPN.
1:10:23
In a sunfilled room, this is breaking news.
1:10:26
This is breaking news, folks.
1:10:28
>> This is breaking news.
1:10:28
With uh with stone flooring and a plush creamy white rug, my winter coat is whisked away and a sparkling water is thrust into my hand.
1:10:35
For much of the past year, an invitation to come here has been one of the most coveted tickets in New York City.
1:10:41
But I'm not at a hot new bar or restaurant.
1:10:44
I'm on the far west side of Manhattan at the tuckedaway sales gallery for a new condominium.
1:10:48
The developers of 80 Clarkson Street, a pair of under construction towers at the edge of the West Village, have kept details about the project secret.
1:10:56
The units aren't listed on sites like Zillow or Street Easy.
1:11:00
Access to the sales office by the Hudson River is by appointment only, and appointments were initially scarce.
1:11:05
Many prospective buyers tried to call in favors to get a look.
1:11:08
quote, "There are a lot of people who've wanted to get in there who haven't been able to get in," said real estate agent Nick Gavin of Compass, who has multiple deals, who's done multiple deals there.
1:11:20
Counterintuitive though it may seem, the secrecy surrounding AD Clarkson appears to have been an extremely effective sales tool.
1:11:26
In less than a year, more than $1 billion worth of condos have been have gone into contract on the project, amounting to more than half of its 112 residences.
1:11:32
Uh, a buyer recently signed a contract to pay $129 million for a residence at 80 Clarkson.
1:11:38
If it closes, the transaction will set a record for downtown Manhattan, shattering the previous high water mark of 60 million.
1:11:46
They're going twice as expensive as the previous high water mark.
1:11:50
Uh, it's a 7,400T apartment.
1:11:50
Uh, that uh a a roughly 7,400 foot apartment is asking 75 million and they also found a buyer.
1:12:00
So, give me a little bit of a review on this style. Are you feeling this?
1:12:06
Do you think you could settle into an apartment if it looked like this and had 7,000 square ft to walk around and was in New York City?
1:12:13
They're asking more than$7,000.
1:12:16
>> Yeah, it's not 7,000 square feet. It's >> 7,000.
1:12:18
No, $7,000 a square foot, but also there's a unit there that's 7,000 square feet.
1:12:24
So, you add those together, you get to $75 million.
1:12:26
But in terms of styling, in terms of aesthetics, in terms of vibes, what you got for us, Jordy? What do you think?
1:12:33
>> I think it's uh >> it's not really my style, but in general, I think it's >> like I think in g I think it's in general it's you could grit your teeth.
1:12:45
You could grit your teeth.
1:12:45
It's some some >> some mixture of of >> gun to your head, you'd live there. >> Of classic >> Yeah. >> New York.
1:12:53
Well, let's get >> interior styling and brought into the modern era.
1:12:58
>> The golden ticket at 80 Clarkson, the two under construction towers sit adjacent to the Westside Highway on the Hudson River.
1:13:04
The project's neighbors are Google and Pier 40, the former marine terminal that now serves as parking and sports facility with a trapeze school.
1:13:13
>> So, if you're into trapeze, I'm sold. You're sold.
1:13:14
Walking distance to trapeze lessons.
1:13:17
[laughter] >> Maybe you got to do trapeze. I don't know.
1:13:22
Despite all the cloak and dagger, the gallery itself is subdued and stayed.
1:13:25
There's no dimming of lights, no ultra dramatic video, no stirring music.
1:13:29
Instead, the space is classic and dignified with a sales team pointing out details such as the motorc court, which they say was inspired by a Roman piaza designed by Michelangelo.
1:13:41
It is an experience that channels the Zechorf's reputation for a certain brand of Manhattan real estate, discreet, restrained, and priced at the very top of the market.
1:13:48
scions of one of New York City's real estate's most storied dynasties.
1:13:53
The brother's track record includes 15 Central Park West and the Upper Westside condo.
1:13:58
The Upper Westside condo that set a new benchmark for the luxury market about 20 years ago.
1:14:02
As we walked through the sales galleries, a series of showrooms are slowly revealed.
1:14:08
The first accessed through doors emlazed with detailed bronze panels is almost vacant except for a scale model of the building.
1:14:14
Around a corner is a movie theater style screen where the team can prod present renderings of the project.
1:14:21
Another scale model shows the building's amenities with drawers that pull out to reveal aerial views of features such as a spa, gym, golf simulator.
1:14:26
Where's the racing simulator, guys? We need that. Squash court.
1:14:32
Are you Are you a squash guy? >> No.
1:14:36
>> You do you put squash in the same category as uh Padell and uh what's that other one called? >> Pickle. >> Pickle ball. >> No. Pickle.
1:14:44
Pickle out in its own world. >> Okay. Pickles.
1:14:47
>> Pickles out in its own world. >> F tier.
1:14:48
[laughter] >> Pickle's F tier. Tennis is S tier. >> Yeah.
1:14:52
>> Uh, give me a little tier list. Give me squash. Where's that? A, B, C, D? >> I don't know.
1:14:57
I've never lived somewhere that that that people were big into squash.
1:15:01
>> Have you ever worked anywhere that had a bunch of squash courts? >> I have. >> Gotcha. >> Got me.
1:15:07
>> So, where you put tier? We We didn't ever play.
1:15:10
>> You never played >> B tier. >> Really? Bad.
1:15:11
Bad mitten is the only S tier.
1:15:14
>> Bad mitten above tennis. >> I hate to say it. >> Wow. Hot take.
1:15:17
What about uh what about golf?
1:15:23
>> Man, I've really tried to get into golf, but I can't I can't get past nine holes. >> B tier.
1:15:28
[laughter] >> I don't know if I can put it into B tier. >> A tier.
1:15:32
>> But do you like playing 18 holes of golf? >> Yeah, I like golf.
1:15:36
>> Do you like the last nine? >> Yeah.
1:15:38
>> You don't ever >> Sometimes I dip out at 13.
1:15:39
What if what if what if nobody that that you're playing with enjoys talking about technology or business? >> It's a nightmare.
1:15:48
>> It's a waking nightmare. >> It actually is. >> Out of there. >> It actually is. >> Yeah. No.
1:15:52
Uh what about um >> we should do we should do a Friday episode sometime where we're just golfing and we have the entire show printed out >> and we just have the team following with a camera. We're miked up. >> Yeah.
1:16:08
We're just shanking balls left and right.
1:16:11
>> My my swing is not very good.
1:16:11
So if uh if pick >> says, "What about sporting clays?" >> Sporting clays. I put >> S tier.
1:16:20
>> We were debating this earlier today.
1:16:22
Brandon was putting that in like C tier. Sporting clays.
1:16:24
You put that you you said it gets boring after 45 minutes. Is that right? >> Sporting clays. [snorts] >> Oh yeah. >> Yeah. >> Very repetitive. >> Very repetitive.
1:16:32
I I like >> So you're bad at >> No.
1:16:34
I think he's saying he's just so good. He just never misses.
1:16:36
Many people have said Brandon never misses. >> Yeah, that's true. That's true. Uh racing simulator.
1:16:42
Where's that go on the tier list of amenities? >> I think uh fantastic. I don't know.
1:16:46
I don't know any anywhere that actually has that as an amenity though >> yet. >> Yet. >> What about spa?
1:16:57
>> Uh >> indoor lap pool.
1:17:00
>> The odds the odds that your apartment spa is actually gonna be elite are are low. >> Okay, listen to this.
1:17:05
They got a music room with a sound engineering booth.
1:17:07
And there's also a content creation studio.
1:17:12
You can make podcasts if you buy this $75 million house or apartment in Manhattan.
1:17:18
Uh content creation studio is hilarious that there's such demand for maybe I'll start a podcast that like they're building it into luxury apartments at this point.
1:17:28
Like >> that just sounds like they had an empty room.
1:17:31
If you have if you have $75 million to buy an apartment and that's your podcasting strategy, you're cooked.
1:17:38
[laughter] Like you're just like, "Yeah, I really need to go downstairs and and use the communal content creation studio." Rough.
1:17:44
I I did hear that there are some uh there are some influencers that do like unboxings.
1:17:49
Basically, they get a whole bunch of stuff like sent to them.
1:17:53
like they'll just review products all day long like on Instagram and they will actually rent a different place because their house is often messy because they have like families and kids and all this stuff.
1:18:01
So the their office will just be like another apartment that's like perfectly white, perfectly clean.
1:18:06
>> Well, when we were looking for this >> uh this studio, we did look at some other places if you remember where we just walked in and in in every single studio it was they were just doing unboxings.
1:18:17
They just have like a ring light, remember? >> That's right. Yeah.
1:18:19
It was like some teeu Tik Tok.
1:18:22
>> It's like a Tik Tok shop that whole world. >> It was crazy.
1:18:26
>> People that are big into that world. >> Yeah, that was wild.
1:18:27
Uh the the path not traveled by us, I suppose.
1:18:33
>> Uh somebody took a ride down a four-story slide. >> I love this.
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1:18:54
So, uh, this is a feature that I think is S tier.
1:18:58
I would put fourstory slide inside of a $20 million Tribeca penthouse.
1:19:04
First off, you're getting the you're getting a location, uh, you're getting an apartment, a penthouse.
1:19:08
At that other place, it was 75 million,$120 million.
1:19:12
This is only 20 million by comparison. Incredible value.
1:19:14
And then instead of some slop podcast room that you have to share with every other resident, you get a private four-story slide. This is a buy. This is incredible.
1:19:23
It's called the sophisticated fun house and it's in Tribeca in Manhattan.
1:19:27
Uh it has a rope swing, a rock climbing column, and secret ladders and entryways. This is speaking to me. I love this.
1:19:34
Katherine Clark reports in the Wall Street Journal mansion section.
1:19:38
From the top floor of a Manhattan penthouse, I clamber ungracefully into a stainless steel spiral slide that sends me down four stories, spitting me out in a dramatic all-white foyer.
1:19:51
As apartment tours go, this one is unusual.
1:19:54
This penthouse at 150 Nassau Street in lower Manhattan has been the subject of lower of local lore for almost two decades, largely thanks to the presence of this snaking silvery slide.
1:20:08
Now, the four-bedroom home known as Sky House is coming on the market for just $20 million. What a steal.
1:20:12
We got to browbeat some of our guests who live in New York into picking this up.
1:20:17
I want to go down the slide.
1:20:18
When owners Craig and Kristen Neville Manning first toured the apartment in 2006, it looked nothing like it does now. A nearly raw space.
1:20:25
It had no interior walls, electrical, or plumbing.
1:20:29
First order of business, four-story slide.
1:20:33
>> Measuring 6,400 square ft.
1:20:33
The penthouse is built into the copper and terracotta pinnacle of a circa 1895 building, one of New York's earliest steel skeleton frame skyscrapers.
1:20:44
The building was converted to condos in the early 2000s.
1:20:49
>> Do you think it's possible that they built a skyscraper over 110 years before you were born? >> That's crazy. >> Like come on.
1:20:58
I don't think they had >> Make it make sense. >> Make it make sense. >> Make it make sense.
1:21:02
>> This might be alien technology. It's entirely possible.
1:21:04
Uh Craig founded Google's first remote engineering center in New York and was later the chief technology officer of the urban innovation company Sidewalk Labs which is now part of Google.
1:21:16
So he was at Google was like let's set up shop in New York.
1:21:21
>> Kristen is a former Facebook and Google executive. >> This is amazing.
1:21:24
Uh >> let's give it up for big tech.
1:21:27
>> Let's give it up for big tech.
1:21:27
And honestly, very very you know, Google has a very wonderful quirky culture and this is a very wonderful quirky house.
1:21:35
I love that a four-story slide is something that I bet I could find on the Google Plex campus.
1:21:41
If I really looked around and found it, they put it in their house. So, respect to them.
1:21:44
After buying the unit, they tapped Hudson and an interior design uh interior designer, Galileain Venas, to turn what Venos describes as a sophisticated funhouse.
1:21:57
Uh they wanted that built.
1:21:57
In addition to the slide, there's a rope swing, a column for rock climbing, and a series of secret ladders and entryways. >> Yeah.
1:22:04
A lot of people say you can't put rope swings and [laughter] a series of secret ladders in your house. >> You absolutely can. >> They didn't listen.
1:22:12
>> Well, the space looks like it was designed to entertain children.
1:22:14
They don't have any children.
1:22:16
Uh did the design reflect the couple's own joyful >> stolen valor. >> Stolen valor. >> Insane stolen valley.
1:22:22
[laughter] Imagine building a fourstory slide. Yeah. Yeah. You got to Yeah.
1:22:28
You got to get a bunch of kids in here.
1:22:31
But fortunately, you can be the change you want to be. Have a bunch of kids.
1:22:35
Buy this house that's on the market. >> Change.
1:22:39
>> Be the change you want to be. John Kuggin. >> Yes.
1:22:42
>> That's a great That's a great line. >> Yes.
1:22:44
They have fluorescent orange chairs.
1:22:46
The home has structural glass bridges and walkways.
1:22:48
Angular entryways and skylights.
1:22:50
White walls and ceilings juxtaposed with vibrant furniture and art.
1:22:54
Give it the feel of a modern art museum.
1:22:56
Uh a sculpture in the foyer.
1:22:59
>> This whole time I'm thinking, okay, they've got this climbing wall column thing.
1:23:03
Like they certainly have like >> 25 children. >> 25 children.
1:23:06
It's like no, that was for me actually after I got off >> child at heart.
1:23:12
>> After I got done >> stacking paper at a hyperscaler and two hypers >> the swing. The swing. >> I don't know. To each their own.
1:23:19
Well, uh it's a beautiful house and uh it can be yours for $20 million and then you can >> kind of strange uh strange art >> in this uh this one section. This this >> is quirky.
1:23:33
There's all sorts >> certainly quirky.
1:23:36
>> Anyway, we have an we're we're going back to Los Angeles next.
1:23:38
But first, let me tell you about graphite code review for the age of AI.
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1:23:54
So, David Lynch's quirky Los Angeles compound sells for 13 million.
1:24:00
>> Okay, explain David Lynch.
1:24:02
>> Who wants to Who wants to explain David Lynch? Any of you guys know? >> He's the goat. >> He's the goat. He's the goat.
1:24:06
Uh he created Twin Peaks and the film Molehole and Drive.
1:24:11
Molehole and Drive is fantastic. >> Eraser Head.
1:24:14
>> Eraser Head is probably my favorite movie. Yeah. >> Really?
1:24:16
I haven't seen Eraser Head. See that? >> Yeah. It's it's Jord.
1:24:18
He's like, I don't know, very I actually have no idea how to describe like kind of surreal. Yeah.
1:24:23
Like very >> explain him as like a a big tech CEO.
1:24:26
>> He's like all the CEO's favorite CEO.
1:24:29
That's how I would explain it.
1:24:29
All the big directors, it's his favorite dire their favorite director. >> Okay. Okay.
1:24:33
Your favorite director's favorite director.
1:24:35
>> What if you have no favorite director?
1:24:37
[laughter] >> How many How many jumps to get from Sasha Baron Cohen to David Lynch? Probably not that many.
1:24:41
He probably has respect for him.
1:24:43
Uh anyway, uh a quirky Los Angeles compound that was the longtime home of the late filmmaker David Lynch has sold for $13 million about 6 months after hitting the market. Lynch died in 2025.
1:24:54
He was known for the surreal films and television shows including the TV series Twin Peaks and the 2001 film Moleholland Drive.
1:25:02
Moleholland Drive is a Tom Cruz movie I believe. Is that right? Is he in there? Justin Thorough. Did I get that wrong?
1:25:09
Am I thinking of a different movie? I think Magnolia.
1:25:12
This is such a fascinating home from the outside from the street it's like somewhat brutalist. >> Yeah.
1:25:18
>> And then inside it's like >> so he has a pract and then he has a a workshop on the estate designed for some of the property's metal work himself.
1:25:27
Um this is a fascinating building.
1:25:30
So the compound has seven buildings spanning 11,000 square ft in total with 10 bedrooms.
1:25:38
The centerpiece of the estate is a pink 1960s house that was designed by the architect Lloyd Wright, the son of Frank Lloyd Wright.
1:25:45
Lynch purchased it for $560,000 in 1987.
1:25:49
And he just kept working, working, working on it.
1:25:52
Uh he later hired Lloyd Wright's son, the grandson of Frank Lloyd Wright, this is Eric Lloyd Wright, to design a pool and a pool house for the property.
1:26:01
Uh, in 1989, Lynch bought two the an adjacent two-bedroom brutalist house for $542,000 and added a studio to the building for $346,000 in 1995.
1:26:14
So, he just kept landing and expanding.
1:26:16
Uh, in a statement, two of Lynch's children said the property was a place of deep meaning in their father's life and the lives of those who lived and worked there.
1:26:24
It holds a lot of history for our family and we're grateful to see it pass to someone who's interested in caring for it and preserving what made it special.
1:26:31
Lynch viewed his living space as an extension of his creative life.
1:26:34
The Lloyd Wright house affects my whole life to live inside it, he said in a 1997 interview.
1:26:43
What would you what do you think about this house? Would you live here? Do you like this house? Do you like the style? >> I do like it.
1:26:51
I just think I I think that needs about I don't know an an architectural purist might hate me for this, but it needs to a lot of investment.
1:27:02
>> You have to tear it down.
1:27:02
[laughter] >> No, no, no, no, no, no.
1:27:05
>> This is also I like >> I don't think it's mentioned in the article, but this is the location of Lost Highway, which is another of his movies. >> Wow. Balln knower over there.
1:27:11
[laughter] I had no idea.
1:27:13
I don't know Lost Highway at all.
1:27:16
>> Tyler Stylard Lynch movie. >> You really did. Uh it's amazing.
1:27:17
Um, oh, uh, the the high-end Manhattan building that has the content creation studio actually actually broke through and hit the timeline.
1:27:27
Somebody saw that and screenshotted it.
1:27:29
Uh, it was as notable to them as it was to us.
1:27:31
Um, uh, Sergey Brin is the second billionaire to buy in Miami this week.
1:27:36
This this has happened like a few times.
1:27:38
I feel like the Google founders have been on a Miami buying spree, bought multiple properties.
1:27:42
Um, we already talked a little bit about that.
1:27:45
We should move over to the financial times and talk about Vasheron the watch maker because there is a interesting piece in the financial times all about that.
1:27:54
But first let me tell you about turbo puffer serverless factor and full text.
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Let me also tell you about reream one live stream 30 plus destinations.
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1:28:05
So there's an interview with the CEO of Vasheron Constanton.
1:28:10
Uh it says Vashron Constanton bets on culture and complications instead of volume.
1:28:15
The in an industry that often equates growth with volume.
1:28:21
Laurent Perve is attempting something more delicate to expand the oldest continuously operation operating watch maker without diluting its own scarcity.
1:28:34
Vashron holds the title of longest in the business continuously.
1:28:37
No breaks, no days off, the ultimate life.
1:28:43
>> Wait, before we jump in there, the team is sharing how many jumps to get me from the host Tyler at TBPN to David Lynch.
1:28:51
>> And so Tyler Cosgrove, >> yes, >> works [clears throat] with John Kugan at TBPN. >> Okay.
1:28:56
>> John Kugan has interviewed Mark Zuckerberg.
1:28:58
Mark Zuckerberg was portrayed by Jesse Eisenberg in film The Social Network.
1:29:03
Jesse Eisenberg co-starred with Laura Durn in Resistance and Laura Durn starred in Wild at Heart directed by David Lynch.
1:29:12
>> Five degrees of Separation. There we go.
1:29:14
Let's make some phone calls.
1:29:14
Except he has sadly passed away.
1:29:17
But uh what a what a what an interesting uh >> Five jumps to >> This is a cool use case for LLMs. This is very fun. I like this.
1:29:24
Uh did you want did you just want to hear this sound effect?
1:29:31
Tyler texted me a while back, like 20 minutes ago, saying I should play that.
1:29:34
Uh, 15 months into his tenure as Vasheron's chief executive, uh, Laurent runs a brand that, according to industry analysts, generated more than1 billion pounds in revenues in 2023.
1:29:50
They're around 1 billion revenue company.
1:29:52
Annual production is estimated at over 25,000 watches, up from roughly 3,000 in the 1980s.
1:29:58
So pretty significant increase.
1:30:01
Uh and that's before the watchmaker was was acquired in the 1990s by what is now the Rishmo luxury conglomerate.
1:30:09
Although revenues have since dipped slightly, the numbers place Vasheron firmly among the upper ranks of Swiss watchmaking.
1:30:16
Yet Laurent in his first interview since making since taking the reigns is clear that acceleration is not the goal.
1:30:23
They're not trying to make more watches that quickly.
1:30:27
Uh we must evolve with the market.
1:30:29
he says, but without chasing volume for its own sake. The timing is delicate.
1:30:35
A very volatile context outside and inside the watch industry.
1:30:39
Secondary prices have softened, hype has receded and growth across the sector has become less predictable.
1:30:45
Uh Laurent describes the brand's position positioning as almost almost as a balance sheet of capabilities.
1:30:52
classic watches, jewelry watches, sport integrated bracelet watches, very high complications and the revived historic line.
1:31:04
Uh the last as it name suggests is a family of retro and shaped watches.
1:31:09
You might be familiar with the Vasheron 222 which is very popular right now.
1:31:13
That's in the historic collection.
1:31:15
>> [snorts] >> uh the objective is to occupy the whole field of high watchmaking ensuring that when one segment slows another can carry momentum.
1:31:24
He half accepts the analogy when pressed.
1:31:27
Vasheron is kind of a horological hedge fund diversifying risk not across asset classes but across aesthetics and price tiers.
1:31:35
The slowing has been most visible in the steel sports watch category.
1:31:40
uh Laurent conceds that the phenomenon of speculation and hype has abated even if the integrated bracelet segment itself is not going to go away.
1:31:50
That's the overseas with the integrated bracelet.
1:31:54
But while others worry about the fading of an asset class, he simply says that over the past years he has seen a bit more demand for classic watches, high complications, for shaped watches, for smaller dynam diameters, prompting, among other things, a 36.
1:32:08
5 millimeter traditional perpetual calendar.
1:32:11
Uh since taking the top job, he's moved decisively towards culture, leveraging the contents of two of the world's largest and most prestig prestigious museums, the Met and the Louv.
1:32:24
Uh the tribute to great civilizations collection saw the creation of quartet of fivepiece limited edition watches, each featuring a miniature enameled version of a Louve masterpiece, such as the wind winged victory of Sethrace.
1:32:36
Uh, beyond the series lies an even more bespoke partnership with the museums where a collector can choose any masterpiece, painting, sculpture, or ornamental item for Vasheron to reproduce on the dial.
1:32:50
Each project is unique, so there's no fixed fixed scale of charges, but Lorent cites the minimum being 150,000 euros pre-tax.
1:32:58
Techniques range from miniature enamel painting, which he says is the most popular, to engraving or powder packed into engraving.
1:33:08
Numerically production is almost rissible.
1:33:10
We don't do more than 10 or 12 pieces a year. So these are custom.
1:33:14
You walk through the museum, you see something you like you like and you're like, I want that on a watch and they'll make it for you. Very, very cool. Maybe I'll get one. >> Do they put logos?
1:33:24
Will they put a ramp logo >> if it's in the See, now you're thinking, so you have to work backwards.
1:33:30
So the question is, how do you get a painting of the ramp logo into the Lou?
1:33:33
as long as you know people were sneaking stuff out of the Lou.
1:33:39
>> Maybe we sneak ramp logo painting in.
1:33:42
>> It's like wasn't the Mona Lisa there? Like not anymore.
1:33:44
Maybe >> it's a painting of the ramp credit card. >> I love it. >> I like it.
1:33:50
The overseas perpetual calendar ultra thin is one of my I think one of the most stunning Yes. modern watches. >> Yes.
1:33:58
I like the overseas dual time a little bit more.
1:34:01
Um, but they're both great.
1:34:03
And I think that the 222, we were sort of hyped on the 222.
1:34:09
Overseas might be making a comeback. >> The ultra thin. >> Yes. Yes. >> Is just insane.
1:34:16
>> There are some really cool historics out there.
1:34:17
There's a square basher that's is pretty popular.
1:34:19
I'm not exactly sure what the what the model number is, but uh they are doing fantastically well.
1:34:25
And most importantly, I think have have just carved out a very interesting brand positioning.
1:34:28
positioning. uh you know by choosing to partner with the Louvre the Met it maintains this very high aura inaccessibility very like old and stuffy and stodgy it's not you know cause it's not a bunch of like younger more so >> yeah when you look at what AP when you look at what AP is doing like very much cha you know on the hype train partnering with DJs and Travis God cause and doing all this stuff and Vashron is like okay
1:35:02
>> yeah and and you just have to wonder like what is the more long-term strategy you know uh the AP strategy can >> certainly is not helping the resale market right now >> very quickly but then it it probably crashes I I would assume and and the uh
1:35:18
and the and the true herology heads head back to Vashron we'll see well let me tell you about Gusto the unified platform for payroll benefits and HR are built to evolve with modern small and medium-sized businesses. And let me also
1:35:30
And let me also tell you about Phantom Cash. Cha-ching again.
1:35:34
Fund your wallet without exchanges or middlemen and spend with the Phantom Card. Um, moving on.
1:35:38
Uh, people are having fun with Leopold Ashen Brener and his uh wife to be.
1:35:45
I believe they're engaged.
1:35:49
Um, uh, Jerka says, "When you ask some high elves at Rivendell if they want to join you in your quest to Arabore and they hit you with the light of Valinor stare." Um, 2. 8,000 likes. People like the photo. Very silly.
1:36:04
Um, >> Ziki says, "Mildly surprised to learn that director level staff at Anthropic have human EAS."
1:36:11
>> H, how did they learn that? How did he learn that?
1:36:14
Was that in like the most recent Daario news?
1:36:15
This is from March 6th today.
1:36:18
I mean, he runs a AI finance tool.
1:36:21
>> Oh, so maybe he's interacting with them.
1:36:22
>> He's interacting with them. >> That's interesting.
1:36:24
[clears throat] >> All right, we got a new Xbox. What's going on here?
1:36:28
>> We have breaking news as of three days ago.
1:36:31
We didn't really get to it.
1:36:31
Uh, Project Helix is the next generation of the Xbox console.
1:36:35
What do we know about it? >> Nothing. >> Nothing. Zada.
1:36:39
[laughter] Uh, we we see a logo reveal.
1:36:42
Um, is this just a working title? I don't know. Will this be delayed?
1:36:48
The PS6 is supposedly delayed.
1:36:51
The Switch 2 is is uh maybe going up in price.
1:36:55
Very unclear what Microsoft strategy is with Xbox.
1:36:57
The the new head of Xbox does not seem to be super focused on the traditional path of like box software, you know, own titles.
1:37:11
Sony really went on a tear and acquired a lot of the great IP, bought a bunch of game studios, brought them in-house, created sort of like this IP rollup that they could get exclusives over.
1:37:20
There was always a fear that when Microsoft bought Activision that they would do the same thing with Call of Duty.
1:37:27
Call of Duty would become a Microsoft exclusive and Xbox exclusive.
1:37:30
That never made financial sense.
1:37:32
It never made sense from a like a regulation perspective.
1:37:35
It would be seen as anti-competitive. hasn't played out.
1:37:40
So even though Activision is now under and they own Blizzard, World of Warcraft, all that IP, even though that is uh now within Microsoft, it doesn't it hasn't seemed to be like the cornerstone of like revitalizing the Xbox as like the number one killer uh console that everyone has to have.
1:37:58
Uh, and they've always been doing this dance between Windows PC sales, Windows gaming, and then Xbox gaming, and then now cloud streaming, where you can stream Xbox on anything, even on an iPhone, iPad.
1:38:09
There's a company, Backbone, that sort of clicks a uh a gaming controller onto your phone.
1:38:17
And so you can stream both PlayStation games from a PlayStation that you have in your house or you can stream from Xbox Cloud.
1:38:23
Tyler, when you played the Oculus, you used Xbox game streaming, correct?
1:38:28
That was how the game was.
1:38:30
>> Yeah, the MetaQuest 3S Xbox Edition.
1:38:30
I think that's the full title.
1:38:33
>> Was there anything that was Xbox specific about that or was it just the packaging and then it just like sort of recommended that you use that software?
1:38:41
>> Um, I mean, it came with an Xbox controller. >> Oh, yeah. >> Um, >> okay.
1:38:45
>> But yeah, I I don't know exactly what the deal was.
1:38:47
I I I don't think >> But did you feel like did you feel like when you when you fired it up any Xbox apps were like preloaded? >> I don't think so.
1:38:58
>> I I to I mean but it's not like you have to download them, right?
1:39:00
So it doesn't matter that much that they're already installed.
1:39:04
>> Well, I I'm thinking more about it just from like the user retention and activation funnel.
1:39:08
I feel like that's where the Oculus is falling flat the most for me.
1:39:11
That's why I framed the challenge the way I did where I was like, you need to beat one level of Halo that takes you 10 minutes in 45 minutes.
1:39:20
It's a ridiculous challenge. Why is it so easy?
1:39:22
It should be so easy, but it took you 25 minutes to get set up, right?
1:39:26
Something like that because you had to like go update the software, create accounts, download stuff, and uh and it'd be interesting to see more, you know, more of a deeper partnership there. But we'll see.
1:39:35
I mean it's entirely possible that Meta is just like pulling back on VR entirely which would be very disappoint for for me but we shall see.
1:39:43
Uh let me tell you about Cisco critical infrastructure for the AI era unlock seamless real-time experiences and new value with Cisco >> tech layoff tracker hearing from multiple sources inside Oracle that the company's planning thousands of job cuts >> potentially 20 to 30,000 roles across the board.
1:40:03
This was surprising to me because I didn't realize that Oracle had a headcount around 170,000 people.
1:40:12
>> There's a lot going on at Oracle.
1:40:12
It's a very like old company, a lot of sales reps.
1:40:18
I had a friend who worked as an Oracle sales rep. Love the job. Great lifestyle.
1:40:22
Um, you know, going around selling software, selling data centers, selling all sorts of stuff.
1:40:27
>> Uh, this is to free up 8 to 10 billion in cash flow.
1:40:29
All to fund massive AI data center expansion.
1:40:31
And US banks are pulling back from financing.
1:40:33
Barring costs are rising fast. >> CDS spreads.
1:40:36
>> The cuts would be the largest in years, bigger than the 10,000 they did in late 2025.
1:40:40
They are also eyeing asset sales like the Cerner Healthcare unit.
1:40:46
Insiders say non-core units and data center link staff are most at risk.
1:40:48
It's tied to AI commitments.
1:40:52
Anyways, so still rumors at this point, but uh wouldn't be wouldn't be super surprising.
1:41:03
They >> I just like that comfortably Smug is watching the show and and publicly tweeting, "Bad Mitten S tier. Outstanding take. Squash is a tier."
1:41:14
[laughter] >> I love that we're starting a conversation.
1:41:16
Um, uh, well, speaking of watches, uh, Paul Graham clearly got into watches recently, which I love to see because he posted a lengthy essay, uh, called the Brand Age, uh, paulgraham. com/brandage.
1:41:30
html, and he tells a very detailed story of the Switchwatch industry, the quartz crisis, and he goes into the strategies of every single house.
1:41:42
It's an amazing telling of what Omega did, what Vasheron did, what uh PC did and it's it's it's very very long.
1:41:53
There was a there was an interesting uh segment in here.
1:41:55
Um the next move was made by AP who in 1970 commissioned the resound the renowned designer Gerald Genta to design their own iconic watch.
1:42:09
This one daringly in steel.
1:42:13
The result launched in 1972 was >> uh Nautilus. >> No, this is AP. >> Oh. Oh, the Royal Oak.
1:42:24
>> The Royal Oak, of course.
1:42:24
And AP's ads for they too now started doing brand advertising emphasized its high cost even more dramatically.
1:42:33
Introducing steel at the price of gold was one of the ads.
1:42:39
Like, we're going to charge you gold prices for something that's steel.
1:42:43
and they're just flexing on it. I love it.
1:42:45
Uh, you're looking at the costliest stainless steel watch in the world, the Ottomar Pig Royal Oak.
1:42:51
What makes it even more precious than gold is the time that went into building it by a vanishing breed of master watch makers.
1:43:02
At the bottom of the ad, they turn the traditional formula on its head and describe their watches as being priced from $35,000 and down instead of up because they want to let you know that what the high-end is, what's the top of the range because price has become part of their brand.
1:43:19
The Royal Oak was also a step forward in surface area devoted to brand.
1:43:23
The Golden Ellipse had turned the watch face into an expression of brand, but it used ordinary straps and bracelets.
1:43:29
In the Royal Oak, the watch face was integrated with a metal bracelet that continued its design all the way around the wrist.
1:43:35
When it said, "You're looking at the costliest stainless steel watch in the world," it said, "With every square millimeter of surface area."
1:43:44
It said it with every square millimeter of surface area.
1:43:46
Would customers buy this new approach?
1:43:48
The initial results were moderately encouraging.
1:43:52
The Holy Trinity sales didn't take off, but they didn't go down to zero either.
1:43:56
there were at least some people out there responding to the new message.
1:44:00
Perhaps if they kept it at the number uh perhaps if they kept at it, the number would grow. So they did.
1:44:08
Encouraged by the success of the Royal Oak, PC Philippe commissioned Gerald Genta in 1974 to design a similar watch for them.
1:44:16
The design of the Royal Oak had been inspired by a ship's port hole.
1:44:22
So the design of this new watch would be inspired by a ship's port hole.
1:44:24
It was called the Nautilus and it launched at the Basel watch fair in 1976.
1:44:30
In the Nautilus, we see the incompatibility of branding and design.
1:44:36
And this is where it gets a little controversial.
1:44:38
Some people don't like the way PG is talking about the difference between branding and design.
1:44:42
Here he says it was huge.
1:44:45
The most expensive men's watches at the peak of the golden age were typically 32 or 33 millimeters in diameter. The Nautilus was 42 mm.
1:44:54
As well as it being huge, it had gratuitous knobs on either side of the face, like a pair of ears, but you could recognize one from across the room in the Nautilus.
1:45:05
Of all the watches PC makes now, the Nautilus is the most sought after.
1:45:11
It's perfectly aligned with what present day buyers want.
1:45:16
Basically, the loudest possible expression of brand.
1:45:19
But in 1976 it was ahead of its time and in 1976 it was still a little too much.
1:45:25
And this is something that happens all the time in luxury goods.
1:45:27
Somebody comes out, they take a bold stance, they they >> 40, >> they make an aggressive move and uh and and then over time it is uh it is [clears throat] revealed to uh uh to be underrated.
1:45:43
Anyway, we have our next guest. >> We do. >> Uh is it Doug Jro? >> No. Oh, >> Vincenzo. Oh, Vento's coming on. Fantastic. Amazing.
1:45:52
[music] >> Good to see you, Venzo. How you doing? >> What's happening? >> Sorry. Sorry to disappoint you. I'm at Doug.
1:45:57
>> Doug's coming on a little bit, but I'm glad.
1:45:59
Uh, we we had some We had some guests step out.
1:46:02
What's going Did you press [music] it twice?
1:46:04
>> They made it >> Oh, they made it play again and again and again. Okay.
1:46:07
Well, we're just going We're going to keep going on this. Can you fade this down? Okay, there we go.
1:46:12
Uh, >> it goes on and on and on and on. >> Yeah.
1:46:14
And and typically if you push the button again, you turn it off.
1:46:16
But we changed it so that if you push the button twice, it actually plays it twice.
1:46:22
So you can do like but it gets to be a little much. So overkill, right? >> Overkill.
1:46:29
Anyway, uh take us through uh your your I I'd love to start with like the preview of the F1 season, but also just uh Apple's strategy because I think you unpacked it way at a way deeper level than uh what I'd seen folks understanding about Apple's F1 strategy before.
1:46:49
>> Yeah, I uh I'll start with the Apple stuff then.
1:46:51
Um really I think >> you know what Apple's done is they've said we may not have the distribution that ESPN, others have. Yeah.
1:47:00
Traditionally, >> and uh but we're going to use our might, which is >> these. >> Yeah.
1:47:10
>> They've got they've got these devices in everybody's hands.
1:47:11
We're all using MacBooks.
1:47:13
We're all We've all got iPads and we've got >> AirPods and Apple watches and so >> and John's got his Vision Pro. >> I do have Vision Pro. >> There you go.
1:47:23
I wish last man standing.
1:47:26
>> I think I think something will be coming with that. I I do. >> Yeah.
1:47:30
They are they're rolling all this stuff out and now we're seeing like when did you ever think that Apple and Netflix would ever find a way to work together on a streaming cross collab?
1:47:39
I don't know if you guys saw that news but >> you're we're going to get to see actually Driver to Survivor is already streaming on uh Apple TV and in return Netflix is going to be streaming one of the races. >> Oh that's cool. >> Yeah.
1:47:55
Ironically, ironically, it is the Canadian Grand Prix.
1:48:00
>> Why the Canadian Grand Prix, you might ask?
1:48:01
Well, the Canadian Grand Prix takes place the same weekend that the Indy500 takes place, which is the most watched motorsport event. >> Okay. >> In America. >> Okay.
1:48:10
>> Maybe even Well, not the world, but in America, it will have the best numbers of the year. >> Yeah. >> So, Apple knows this. What do they do?
1:48:18
They go and partner with Netflix.
1:48:20
Everybody has Netflix, right? I the IMAX theaters.
1:48:24
They're trying to change the experience.
1:48:26
How do you watch >> Yeah. >> race?
1:48:29
Five races are going to be shown in IMAX theaters. >> Yeah. >> That's pretty cool. >> Yeah.
1:48:33
>> Um they also partnered up with Event Pass, so bars, restaurants.
1:48:40
>> It'll It's where they buy a lot of their um their sports packages from through Event Pass.
1:48:47
They're rolled into there.
1:48:47
They've also they've also unleashed MLS on that.
1:48:50
finally are realizing that the MLS thing wasn't working, right? >> Mhm.
1:48:54
>> Uh so yeah, so now they're doing that with Formula 1.
1:48:56
So now Formula 1's going to be able to be in bars and restaurants.
1:48:59
You're going to see Formula 1 in IMAX theaters.
1:49:01
Again, only >> go to the bar 7 a. m.
1:49:07
>> I mean, that's that that might be the issue with some of the races.
1:49:09
So, we'll see what happens there.
1:49:10
But >> I think the fact that they're open to these different types of distribution channels and platforms is it's exciting. It really is exciting.
1:49:20
>> Have you guys had a chance to play around with >> uh Yeah. Yeah.
1:49:23
React to my thesis that like the way Apple sees onboarding a fan to an actual live watching sport experience starts with the F1 movie, which when you watch that movie, you don't need to know anything about F1.
1:49:40
[clears throat] And you'll hear the voice over of the narrator basically explain all the rules to you.
1:49:44
And then they show Brad Pitt doing all these like tricky moves that illustrate why pit stops matter and why tires matter damage all these things.
1:49:53
And so you can watch the F1 movie just because you like Brad Pitt and it's a fun movie.
1:49:57
Then you can go into Drive to Survive.
1:49:59
It's the reality TV version.
1:50:01
You don't really have to follow a full race.
1:50:03
You get all the drama and the personality and it's a travel show, too.
1:50:09
And it's a lifestyle show.
1:50:11
And then once you've gone down that funnel, then you're ready to watch the race and they have that for you, too.
1:50:18
>> And and even the way they're laying it out, if you guys haven't had a chance to look through the, you know, the Apple TV >> app, >> they're putting everything there.
1:50:25
So now you have their local their guides, like their city guides.
1:50:29
They've put together guides for the cities that you're in.
1:50:31
So you can explore Melbourne now. That's where they are. Yeah.
1:50:36
>> In Apple Maps, you can explore the track turn by turn.
1:50:38
you can, which again, some people might not care about that, but it's a way to pull you in if you are there in Melbourne. Yeah. And you're using Apple.
1:50:49
>> I think I actually noticed that that map feature.
1:50:52
>> I use Apple Maps like a psycho apparently.
1:50:53
Uh, but I was in Las Vegas at the Las Vegas Grand Prix and I just happened to open Apple Maps just to get out of the stadium and figure out where we were going and I was like, "Wow, this is a really detailed rendering of the track. This is amazing.
1:51:07
This is would actually be useful for a bunch of other things.
1:51:11
And if you're just driving by and then you just see this really high fidelity 3D rendering of the of the map, it's just another touch point.
1:51:16
It's basically just an ad.
1:51:18
>> What do you think they'll do with Vision Pro?
1:51:19
Like what are your theories?
1:51:19
You think you'll be able to ride along with Versappen and like actually get to exper because if you could experience a full race like in >> the cameras are I think too heavy for that.
1:51:29
But I want to hear what >> I know, but not if you add it to [clears throat] every single car [laughter] >> and everybody lap times go way.
1:51:34
I don't know if >> I don't know if Ben can pull it up or if one of the guys can pull this up, but I posted something recently about an app called Laps Lapz.
1:51:44
Now, they got kind of they were in test flight.
1:51:48
They ended up getting pulled like they they can't keep pushing out >> and it has to do with licensing rights from F1, but this is what I think >> can happen and what they can do with Apple Vision Pro.
1:52:02
In fact, I really think Apple I should have I thought they should have bought Laps, the the company that built it, the developer that built it.
1:52:08
But if they didn't, I I could foresee them just kind of building this on their own.
1:52:13
I mean, you've got you can have all the cameras up.
1:52:16
You have a three-dimensional track with like live timing because all we have all the data, right? All the data is there.
1:52:22
So, being able to put your vision pro on and be in camera with any of the drivers that you want, plus seeing a live circuit map.
1:52:31
And then I believe they were also able to change the like the angle from where you were watching it from.
1:52:36
So, you were able to understand really uh like if I'm sitting in I don't know, turn one, I'm watching it from that angle, right, through the Vision Pro as opposed to, you know, when you kind of put it on the TV, you don't really you may not know if you're not familiar with the track.
1:52:48
uh you know, you don't know which angle you're really watching it from.
1:52:52
This was a this app was really really cool.
1:52:54
Um and I know one of the developers that was working on it.
1:53:00
>> That was like to me that showed the true power of it.
1:53:02
Every time I post it, people are like that I would buy Vision Pro if I could get that app. >> Yeah.
1:53:07
About a year ago, we had uh a sort of motion designer on the show at Figma uh conference uh named John Leapour.
1:53:13
He works at Blackbox >> Infinet. That's him.
1:53:17
John's the guy who built laps. Oh, okay.
1:53:19
It's lapsed now because I remember seeing the demo.
1:53:21
I pulled I put the demo in the uh in the chat.
1:53:25
Hopefully the team can pull it up.
1:53:27
But uh they did this uh they did this case study back in 2024 and I was like, "Oh, this is like a killer app.
1:53:32
I wonder when Apple will like actually adopt this. Here it goes."
1:53:36
Um and so this just makes so much sense that you could like put this on.
1:53:40
And now that Apple actually has all the rights to this stuff, uh it seems like such an interesting experience.
1:53:46
I wonder if this is uh one of those situations where you it looks really good in a teaser trailer, but then actually sitting there is maybe a little bit much.
1:53:56
But um >> everyone that actually used Laps said it was fantastic.
1:54:01
>> Yeah, >> everyone I've talked to that used it said this was like incredible.
1:54:03
Um and again, I don't have a Vision Pro, so I never really I didn't test it. I saw some demo stuff.
1:54:10
John has sent me some things.
1:54:13
>> You got to try it this weekend, John. >> Oh, yeah.
1:54:15
If you can get if you can somehow get a hold of it, if you have it, I would >> Yeah, I have a Vision Pro.
1:54:20
I think I have Apple TV Plus and all the all the tiers there.
1:54:25
Um I I probably just have to download the laptop.
1:54:28
>> All right, let's get into the season overall.
1:54:30
What's what's happening with the new regulations, >> how who's cooked, who's chopped, [laughter] who's goated.
1:54:37
>> Well, so I think on the last time I was on the show and I was thinking about this too.
1:54:40
I was like, "Oh man, I'm going to really eat a lot of crow now."
1:54:41
I said Aston Martin was to look out to was someone to pay attention to and it was for all the wrong reasons.
1:54:49
>> Uh they seem to have completely botched the project.
1:54:54
>> I don't even know what's going on with Honda.
1:54:55
I mean it it seems like one of those things that I thought was unfathomable in 2026.
1:54:58
Like this was not something that was supposed to really be possible.
1:55:03
The engineers have, you know, figured out reliability.
1:55:05
We have cars that are so reliable.
1:55:07
Everyone's finishing races now.
1:55:08
This wasn't the case 30, 40 years ago, right?
1:55:09
you'd have a lot of reliability issues.
1:55:12
And now it like they've literally built a car that is quite literally crap.
1:55:16
I mean, it's it's it is not good.
1:55:19
Uh Fernando Allonzo still hasn't run any practice laps.
1:55:24
Although maybe in practice, too, he ended up getting out there, I think.
1:55:25
But they're not turning any laps.
1:55:27
They're actually talking about like potential nerve damage these guys in the Aston Martin because of whatever is going on with the battery. It's It's wild.
1:55:34
So, >> what do you mean going on with the going on with the battery?
1:55:38
are they they >> they're so so because of the new um the new chass like the the new regulations the car is smaller it's narrower >> and because of the way Adrienne Newui designs his cars it require there's a lot of aerodynamics so he kind of almost built a smaller >> uh there's less room in his car to build you know for power unit and battery and all that stuff.
1:56:02
Well, now with this like 50/50 split, you have 50/50 or 50% battery power and essentially 50% from the internal combustion engine, uh, all of that power or all of that takes up a lot of room and apparently there's not enough room in the in the Honda for all of that to properly like they're not even running the battery or they're not running the everything at full bore right now.
1:56:26
It's like they couldn't even turn the battery up.
1:56:28
It it's it's pretty wild.
1:56:30
Like I'm reading all this stuff.
1:56:31
All of this information is coming at me and I'm like, how does this even happen?
1:56:35
The greatest designer of probably our generation, if not ever.
1:56:39
And then there was other talk that like Aston Martin hadn't even really ever audited the Honda engineers.
1:56:44
So, they signed the deal back in 22 or 23 that they were going to switch from Mercedes to Honda, but never audited the actual engineering.
1:56:54
And >> come to find out, most of like the good engineers ended up at Red Bull, which a lot of people speculated was the case because they Red Bull was with Honda.
1:57:04
So, it's it's a whole mess right there with that Aston Martin project right now.
1:57:06
Um, and of course, Aston Martin just signed over a naming deal for I forgot how much money it was, 60 plus million dollars that for the F1 team.
1:57:16
So, I'm like, oo, that's not a good that's not great.
1:57:17
But aside from that, uh, you've got Mercedes looking really.
1:57:24
>> So, what's your what's your prediction for Sunday?
1:57:26
Do you do you think they do you think they actually finish the race or is it looking so bad that they >> I don't know that they start the race?
1:57:34
I I mean, they may start the race, turn a couple laps just to do it, but I don't I can't foresee them I in qualifying tonight.
1:57:41
Like I I I can't even see them getting anywhere near like remotely close to the times we're going to see on the board.
1:57:49
Uh I think they were something like 12 seconds back at one point during practice, which it's only practice, but I I don't even think I don't think they will finish the race.
1:57:59
If they do start it, it'll be like a couple laps and then they're they're going to purposely pull it, you know, uh pit it and pull it from the race. >> What is Mr. Stroll doing about it? I have no clue. I really don't.
1:58:12
There it's a lot there's a lot of PR notices that there's a lot of PR that they're, you know, pulling right now and they're apologizing like which again I don't know what apologies are going to do at this point but um I if I'm sponsors I'm really pissed [laughter] to be quite frank with you.
1:58:29
Um [clears throat] I don't know I don't I don't know what I don't know what Lawrence is doing.
1:58:33
who who is uh benefiting from the new regulations or is uh kind of figured it out the best so far.
1:58:42
>> It's so it seems uh it seems like Ferrari is doing again I I I can't jinx them so I have to like I I got a little jinx thing going here but the Ferrari looks really good. Um the Mercedes as well.
1:58:56
So they both have come out looking solid.
1:58:59
Uh Ferrari's been really reliable.
1:59:01
They haven't seemed to have had any of the issues that others have had with the turbo spool, which was um something they were concerned about uh as early as last season or maybe even two seasons ago.
1:59:13
They had talked about uh the turbo lag and they don't seem to have that problem.
1:59:18
They've gone with a smaller turbo charger uh which spools up faster.
1:59:23
So like they seem to be good with that.
1:59:25
The Mercedes looks really really quick um fast on the straights.
1:59:31
I don't think that they were d-tuned after their everyone was complaining about their engines, those those seem to be good.
1:59:36
So, anyone with a Mercedes power unit seems to be in good shape, but the Mercedes Patronis AMG F1 team, they also just look great.
1:59:45
George Russell, personally, I think George Russell, this might be his year.
1:59:50
>> Um, and the package looks really, really good. The car looks great.
1:59:52
Like, they're not having any issues.
1:59:54
Um, uh, McLaren, they're McLaren, so they they, you know, they won the championship last year.
2:00:06
They also have Mercedes power unit.
2:00:06
They seem to be okay in an okay spot.
2:00:08
We'll see what happens when they start they ended up, I think, in the second practice, they ended up topping the time.
2:00:15
Uh, but again, it's practice, so we'll see what happens when they turn up the engines for qualifying, I think, pretty much. And then Red Bull. Red Bull.
2:00:22
Let's talk about Red Bull with the Ford power uh Red Bull Ford power unit. Those are impressive.
2:00:26
We A lot of people thought like they may not be that good, especially during the testing in in Bahrain.
2:00:34
They were like, h they don't look or sound that great.
2:00:35
Now they came to Melbourne, seem to be working pretty well. Max looks hooked up.
2:00:44
They have a second driver now, Hajar, young kid.
2:00:46
Uh his second season, Formula 1.
2:00:49
just brought him up from uh the junior team racing bulls.
2:00:51
He's looking really good.
2:00:54
So, I would say we're gonna for me it's a Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull trio at the top and McLaren I think they're going to be maybe looking out of the top three but uh yeah I to me it's a George Russell, Oscar Pastry, uh Max Verstoppen.
2:01:10
Those are the three guys that I am putting my maybe not money into, but those are the guys I'm putting I'm putting my bets on.
2:01:17
If I'm anyone else out there, >> are there any brands that you're tracking that could make a major move into sort of a >> premier sponsorship position of an F1 team?
2:01:31
We were sort of joking about the idea of like an all-white F1 car sponsored by Apple.
2:01:36
Obviously, Apple Formula One team.
2:01:39
>> The Apple Formula One team would be very cool.
2:01:41
>> That would be so cool.
2:01:42
>> But they sort of are broadcasting the whole league. They're indexing it.
2:01:45
It doesn't really make sense, but a lot of tech companies have moved in.
2:01:47
Uh Oracle, Google with Chrome and Gemini.
2:01:50
There's, you know, all sorts of deals that are happening.
2:01:54
There's a lot of money flowing around.
2:01:55
I'm wondering if there's anyone that you think might like really go all in.
2:01:59
[snorts] >> Really, it's not something I've been thinking about.
2:02:02
Um, >> you know, fintech seems to be pretty popular right now. >> Yeah.
2:02:08
>> Um, >> let's get a ramp yellow car out there. That'd be good.
2:02:12
>> They'd be really cool to see that. >> Yeah. Ram Cadillac.
2:02:14
>> Cadillac could use it.
2:02:14
Cadillac could definitely use >> Have they filled out their sponsorships or they're still putting it together?
2:02:23
>> No, I think they're still putting it together.
2:02:25
They may actually be This might be part of the strategy.
2:02:27
I haven't talked to anybody over there.
2:02:28
I think TWWG has put a lot of money in, so they have their name all over it.
2:02:34
They uh the TWWG AI is their AI partner and TWWG is also part of the is ownership group.
2:02:40
So they're on the car in like kind of two different ways.
2:02:44
Uh but this is also what TWWG does across of all of their motorsport assets.
2:02:48
Like their brand is, you know, uh front and center.
2:02:51
Um, I haven't seen them fill out much yet, but I also was speculating that Nike and Apple would partner with them at some point.
2:03:01
So, those were two that I had thought might we might see something with.
2:03:05
And I I've heard not rumors of those two brands, but I've heard that there is other things coming for Cadillac.
2:03:12
>> I think for them, it's going to be a matter of can they perform on track and how is that going to look?
2:03:15
Uh, you obviously don't want to be absolutely >> Cadillac has a Honda power unit. >> Ferrari.
2:03:24
>> Oh, >> are you East Coast? >> Yes. >> 11 p. m. Saturday. >> 11 p. m. >> 11 p. m. 11 p. m.
2:03:32
>> Pretty convenient for the West Coast folks. 8:00 p. m.
2:03:34
is like sort of a great time to hang out, watch the race. >> Uh, works out for us.
2:03:41
>> I've been doing this since I was a kid, though, so it was like >> these races have always been weird times.
2:03:46
I'm you just kind of get used to it. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
2:03:49
>> That's why when I hear people complain, I'm like >> pageantry.
2:03:51
>> It's part of the pageantry. [snorts] >> Exactly. Well, thank you so much. >> Yeah.
2:03:54
I I'm going to think about the brands though, John, and may maybe I'll come back when I come up with some >> Yeah.
2:04:00
>> some that could could join in. It's >> short list. >> Yeah.
2:04:02
I'm focused elsewhere now with the beginning of the year, but >> Yeah, of course.
2:04:04
Well, thank you so much for taking time. >> Yeah.
2:04:07
Excited to see your coverage. Yeah.
2:04:09
Uh on the event and uh yeah, we'll talk soon. Great to see.
2:04:11
Thanks for having me again, guys. >> Have a good one. Good to >> see you. Cheers. Bye.
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Um Nate Silver says, "Honestly, a Consumer Report style panel of power users might be better than meter, etc.
2:04:41
for measuring AI progress.
2:04:43
much more robust to spikiness.
2:04:43
Not meant to sound skeptical.
2:04:46
As a power user, I think there's been extremely noticeable progress over the past few months.
2:04:49
For what it's worth, >> yeah, this is diffusion max.
2:04:54
We were asking semi analysis to put something like this together. Uh it's very tricky.
2:05:03
There are so many people that have ties or sponsorships or favorite models or they've worked somewhere or they have a bone to pick with someone or they're politically aligned one way or the other.
2:05:12
uh there's a lot uh that that should maybe disqualify someone from giving sort of a qualitative review, but I love the idea of going to a group of folks that are independent users of these models and putting something together that's consumer report style because we we are truly past benchmarks being noticeable to the average user and we're much more in to okay, how does the model feel?
2:05:39
What are you actually using it for?
2:05:41
Is it is it actually collaborating with you in a valuable way such that you get a you know a deliverable?
2:05:48
We we we we talk to a lot of folks about you know like okay like agents are here what are you using them for?
2:05:54
What are your customers using them for?
2:05:56
And it can be tricky sometimes people people don't really know what they're using them for.
2:05:59
Well let me tell you about Lambda.
2:06:01
Lambda is the [music] super intelligence cloud building AI supercomput for training and inference that scale from one GPU to hundreds of thousands.
2:06:08
And without further ado, we have Doug Demiro in the R Street Wing Room.
2:06:12
Welcome to the TBNN Ultradom. How you doing, Doug? >> I'm good. How are you guys doing?
2:06:17
>> We're doing fantastically.
2:06:17
Uh, great to see you back here.
2:06:20
>> I'm so I'm so glad to have you back here.
2:06:22
Uh, I I absolutely love this car pod.
2:06:25
Congratulations on all the progress there.
2:06:27
I mean, it's the number one car podcast in the world, and it deserves to be so because >> the number one in our hearts.
2:06:33
>> It's I I'm going to be listening to it on my drive home today.
2:06:34
Uh, it drops every Friday, correct? through Friday morning. That is true. Yes.
2:06:41
>> Go subscribe uh to that.
2:06:41
Uh but we wanted to have you on to discuss so many other things in the car world.
2:06:45
I think we should start with the interesting crossover from the tech world to the world of Ferrari with the Johnny IV, the Johnny, the new >> the new Luch.
2:06:57
Uh so take us through your reactions to the actual design.
2:07:02
>> You already ordered five of them, right?
2:07:04
[laughter] >> As soon as electric, you were like, I'm in.
2:07:06
I am as skeptical as as as basically every car enthusiast that I know is. Yeah.
2:07:12
>> Uh take you through my thoughts.
2:07:12
I mean, well, first off, they haven't shown the the vehicle, right?
2:07:17
They've shown the interior, which in itself is kind of interesting and makes me a little anxious.
2:07:21
Who shows the interior before showing the vehicle, right?
2:07:23
Only if you're really kind of nervous about how the vehicle >> It was such a weird layout, too, seeing like the the floating stuff and it wasn't even in like a shape of a car.
2:07:33
And there's people there's people in Italy that, you know, sit outside the Ferrari factory and take videos on their phones and I've seen some of those, you know, kind of scouting videos and it looks like incredibly rough.
2:07:42
It looks like a It looks like a Subaru or a Hyundai.
2:07:48
>> Although Ferrari, more than any other brand, goes to great lengths to disguise their uh production cars when they're when they're still doing testing for that exact reason.
2:07:56
Yes, there are people who post up at the factory waiting for them to slip up or whatever.
2:08:00
And so Ferrari has historically made some really bizarre uh pre-production cars to try to actually fake out those people.
2:08:10
So I'm not entirely convinced that the the really rough looking look of the you know the the spy photo car that we've all seen is real.
2:08:17
It looks like a station wagon.
2:08:19
Um but obviously I'm skeptical just in general of this like an electric sports car.
2:08:25
The ones that have come out have not been wellreceived. They have not sold well.
2:08:30
In some cases, automakers who were about to release an electric sports car dialed it back and canceled the whole project uh you know sometimes months before they it was supposed to be on sale.
2:08:38
So, we'll see how it goes.
2:08:43
>> So, [laughter] strategically talk about the talk about the interior though because to me to me it looks like uh in general I'm a fan of coming in having some fresh eyes on the interior of a car.
2:08:57
There's a bunch of kind of like individual ideas from what we've seen that look cool like little things you can pull to start the engine or whatever your engine.
2:09:06
Um there's a lot of elements that are nice, but at the same time it looks like somewhat like it's like oh you did like a resto mod on but it's an EV.
2:09:17
but it's an EV. like it just it feels it feels um I didn't come away feeling like it was >> it's an interesting thing though like it's a totally new world for Ferrari and so I'm willing to give them a lot of latitude here because I think they're
2:09:35
probably going after new buyers and different buyers and I also think they're really trying to they're not trying to appeal to the people like us who are like into cars and are and are probably have some experience with Ferrari before. I think this is this is
2:09:44
I think this is this is a big play on China.
2:09:46
This is a big play on young people.
2:09:48
Um, they're really trying to make this make sense to a kind of a different audience.
2:09:53
So, I'm actually I didn't mind the interior for that from that perspective.
2:09:56
It certainly is not very Ferrari like, but I think that was the point.
2:09:59
I think they could have kept their in in-house design team, you know, designing it if they had wanted it to stay like it like their cars look.
2:10:07
And I think this was kind of intentionally a left field kind of thing.
2:10:11
And so, I I'm willing to give them latitude there.
2:10:15
What I'm more anxious about is how the car looks, how it performs, and especially how it feels.
2:10:18
Because I think a lot of the reason people buy Ferraris is because of the way that they feel.
2:10:24
And that's where I think this car could have problems.
2:10:27
>> Do you think it could actually sell well in China even with this fresh take on design when every foreign manufacturer has been getting slaughtered?
2:10:38
>> Foreign manufacturers are getting slaughtered in China.
2:10:39
But you have to assume that even in China which doesn't have the brand belovedness for some of the western brands that we have.
2:10:45
You have to assume though that the Ferrari brand is still nonetheless >> both popular and you know makes people excited even in China.
2:10:54
It's not like any Chinese companies have emerged as a replacement for Ferrari.
2:10:58
Even though there have been many Chinese companies that have emerged as replacements for Tesla and Mercedes-Benz and all that.
2:11:04
Ferrari is still this globally known beloved brand.
2:11:07
And so I do think that they have they have possibility there.
2:11:10
Porsche sells relatively well in China despite how how hard it has been for other automakers to get in there. >> Yeah.
2:11:16
How how far do you think or how deep do you think the Ferrari team is into the development of this electric vehicle?
2:11:23
Because didn't Lamborghini just pull out of their EV project?
2:11:26
It feels like there's a different world where the the electrification of the powertrain is much more like choosing between a V12 and a V8.
2:11:36
And it's just like uh it's just an option almost.
2:11:38
And maybe they'd be afraid of doing that because it would reveal 5% of the buyer selecting that.
2:11:46
But they make all this big like oh it's a it's a its own car instead of just being like yeah the Roma now you can get it electric if you want that. We'll make 10 of them.
2:11:54
>> Well it's an interesting thing.
2:11:54
I other automakers have tried to do that.
2:11:58
Maserati has an electric version of the Gran Turismo that has been a horrible failure.
2:12:01
Um I think that I was surprised to see Lamborghini cancel theirs uh at this stage. Um kudos to them.
2:12:09
They realize their buyers don't want it and uh in in some ways you have to wonder if Lamborghini is kind of emerging as more the enthusiast brand and for which which historically has not been true, right?
2:12:20
Lamborghini is the brand for people who want to show off and Ferrari is the enthusiast brand.
2:12:23
Well, maybe that's changing a little bit.
2:12:24
Ferrari, I think also would make the argument that they have always been the leader.
2:12:27
They have always been the one to push to the next step, the design leader.
2:12:31
People say their stuff is ugly.
2:12:33
They say their, you know, the cars are too powerful, etc.
2:12:36
That and and they have always kind of been the first to take some steps.
2:12:38
And I think >> like, oh, we're too powerful.
2:12:40
We'll put a V6 in our Halo car.
2:12:42
[laughter] I think that they're I so I think that they're sitting here thinking, you know what, we're Lambo might cancel it and Pin and Firina isn't selling theirs very well and all this stuff, but we are Ferrari and we if if anybody's going to be able to do this, it's going to be us and we are going to lead this thing and we're going to kill it.
2:12:59
I bet that's the mindset uh in in Italy.
2:13:01
I bet you they're nervous though. >> Yeah.
2:13:05
>> No no electric sports car has succeeded yet and and many have tried.
2:13:09
>> Uh TYON doesn't really count as a sports car. More sedan.
2:13:12
No, I think because it's a sedan, it is certainly a sporty car, but because it's a sedan and adding that level of practicality, it's not really the same thing.
2:13:19
Especially because Porsche tried to go electric with their sports car and over the last few months has repeatedly been walking back the actual desire to do that to the point where it's now kind of starting to become clear there may not even be an electric version of the next box.
2:13:34
>> Is the Mission X, Mission E, the the the F80 competitor, the W1 competitor just completely canled at this point? >> Yeah, that's gone.
2:13:42
I don't know if they've officially said that, but yes, that is gone.
2:13:44
They're not going to do an electric over.
2:13:47
>> Are they going to do a new Halo car?
2:13:47
It feels like we're so far.
2:13:49
I I had the 918 on a poster as a kid and I've been waiting for the next version for my entire life.
2:13:58
>> I was I got career GT sitting right up here. There we go.
2:14:00
[laughter] >> They are going to do one.
2:14:03
But I think that they had committed significant resources to going electric with Mission X >> and it didn't happen and they had to kind of scramble back to the drawing board and and developing a hyperart. It takes real effort.
2:14:13
Um you got to get a lot of things right because you're only selling a few hundred of them.
2:14:17
And so I I think it's coming but it's still >> so if Porsche goes back to the drawing board and they're say okay we there's no longer the pressure to go electric with the hypercar.
2:14:26
uh h how how enthusiasts can they go at that tier? Can they do manual? Can they do a V12?
2:14:33
Like can they learn from the SP3?
2:14:36
Like what what can they like what do they have the freedom to actually pull off the shelf?
2:14:42
>> I think that Porsche is a much more conservative company than I wish they were.
2:14:47
>> I would be very surprised if it has a manual.
2:14:50
>> I would be very surprised.
2:14:50
I'm certain that it will be a hybrid in some capacity.
2:14:54
Um, I'd be very surprised if it was a larger engine than a V8.
2:14:56
The fact that Career GT ever existed, analog V10, like that was an unbelievable thing.
2:15:02
That was a moment in time.
2:15:02
Like Porsche, I think, is still worried.
2:15:04
They have never really in the modern eras, hypercars are automatic hybrids.
2:15:09
And I think Porsche is afraid of of deviating from that because they know that that works and it worked with 918.
2:15:15
I actually had a call with some Porsche people yesterday and I was pleading my case for a manual Carrera GT type successor and I just think it's just a tough it's a tough cell.
2:15:25
It's a tough It's a cell.
2:15:27
They don't >> Is it Is it though?
2:15:27
Is it a tough cell for the the people that are actually >> Well, they have a they have a halo car in the GT3 RS in some ways that sells the 911s and also the Boxster looks like the Cayman looks like somewhat similar to the GT3 RS.
2:15:42
So, it's not the R8 pulling down to the A4.
2:15:47
>> I just I just the the the the people we we have a friend that gets every orders every Halo car from every brand.
2:15:55
And if you and if you asked him like, "Hey, would you rather have like a hybrid?" >> Yeah.
2:16:03
>> Or or something that's like more more a successor to the Carrera uh CGT. Like what?
2:16:09
He would he would obviously want the >> the more manual CGT the more engaging.
2:16:15
>> The automakers I think are also really aware of the fact that like hybrid is the future >> and they really need to make sure that the super the hyper car which gets all the press >> brings technology to the lineup that then trickles down.
2:16:28
Like I think in a way even to this day the 918 Spider kind of opened the door for the 911 to go hybrid and for the TYON to exist because it was like >> if the hypercar can do it then I promise you and your 911 can do it.
2:16:40
And I think going back doing a full I yes I think it would sell if they did another V10 manual hypercar be amazing but it's it's kind of an anacronism.
2:16:49
I also think Porsche is a little bit anxious about the number of people who have 2 million bucks that are actually willing to buy those cars.
2:16:55
My argument is they're doing it right now at auctions.
2:16:57
Like million, F50s are selling for 8 million.
2:17:02
It's not like you're getting a bunch of cheap used car buyers who are like, I want manuals back and I only buy used cars.
2:17:07
Like these are people with real money who would buy them, but I think it's just easier to find buyers for automatic hybrids.
2:17:12
They have crazy, you know, numbers horsepower and acceleration and all that. >> Yeah.
2:17:18
>> Uh what's what's talk about the overall auction market and what's going on there?
2:17:24
I was uh spent the weekend in in Montana with a few guys that have Porsche dealerships and they were speculating themselves, but I'm curious what your take is.
2:17:35
>> It's been it's been a bit of a ride the last few months.
2:17:37
Uh I've been shocked at watching some of the cars increase as they have.
2:17:42
they have. cars that were I some there are cars that have gone up 60 70% in in what appears to be three four months and you look at auction results and it was one result and now it's four results and it's like wow so this is where the market is like are some of these cars gone forever I had to bump my insurance up on my career JT I'm going to bump it
2:18:02
up again I'm like getting anxious to drive it like you start to think that like some of these cars that you lusted after as a child might be gone forever and and it doesn't feel like a bubble either Um, I just get the sense that we've all been hoping the other shoe would drop and these cars would fall and that's not what happened after CO, right? They went up, they stopped
2:18:19
They went up, they stopped climbing, but nothing ever came back down.
2:18:22
F40s never got cheap again.
2:18:22
F50s never got cheap again.
2:18:24
Courage never got cheap again.
2:18:26
Um, and I just don't get the sense that that's going to happen again.
2:18:29
I I think that there is a real interest in in collectors and enthusiasts in keeping these cars >> and it's just going to keep driving values up.
2:18:36
>> And isn't isn't some of this like generational, right?
2:18:39
generational, right? because you're seeing maybe some more softness in in the in classics and then some of these more like you know somebody that grew up with Carrera GT on a poster like they're not reaching for >> classic cars anymore and so this entire
2:18:57
there was an entire window of cars that were in hindsight like pretty reasonably priced because the people that were kids when they were being released didn't have the money and then as soon as you they had the wealth then all of them it just immediately go. >> Yeah, absolutely. And I think there's a >> Yeah, absolutely.
2:19:12
And I think there's a FOMO effect among those people.
2:19:13
Once they see values of a car go from 1 to 2 million, they think to themselves, "Oh crap, I got to buy it now before it goes to 4 million."
2:19:19
And that helps push values up, too.
2:19:21
But yes, I mean, you saw that big that big auction in Florida where they all those bizarre colored cars came out.
2:19:26
You know, you saw David Lee, who's this content creator in South Southern California, he bought a Ferrari 250 GTO for like 38 million.
2:19:32
Meanwhile, at Enzo at that same auction sold for like 11.
2:19:36
The Enzo to 250 GTO spread at 3x is unbelievable considering that it used to be 100x. Yeah.
2:19:44
And you're starting to see a 250 GTO is a 60s car and Enzo is a poster car for millennials.
2:19:49
It was a car that was on our walls.
2:19:51
I mean that car came out when I was 15 and I am, you know, is literally like a millennial dream and that's that's where the money is shifting.
2:19:58
I don't I don't have any interest in a 250 GT.
2:20:00
I don't have any interest split window Corvette or a Hemi Cuda.
2:20:03
You know, I'm looking at Enzo and Carrera GTS.
2:20:06
Those are the cars that I want. >> What about Gwing?
2:20:08
How did Hooie wind up with such an eclectic taste?
2:20:13
>> You know, the there are a few historic cars that I think will always be successful. Yeah. And that is one of them.
2:20:20
That is a car that I think even the next generation and the generation after that will appreciate.
2:20:23
And and I got to admit, if Gold Wings came down to a reason much more reasonable number, even I would be interested.
2:20:28
Even though it's a 50s car and it's old and all that, it is just so damn cool.
2:20:32
And so I don't think that is that eclectic for a young person. >> Yeah.
2:20:38
I also heard it's like it's like one of the first cars from that era that actually feels fast, whereas a lot of other cars that it's like it's it's fancy, but it just feels very slow >> and modern.
2:20:48
That's that's the really crazy thing about the Gullwing.
2:20:50
I drove one and I [clears throat] it wasn't until the moment that I drove one that I realized why you see them on so many vintage rallies.
2:20:56
And it's because they're unbelievably drivable.
2:20:57
They are very comfortable. They are fuel injected. They are easy to drive.
2:21:01
They are easy cars to operate. Manual transmission.
2:21:04
The the the the steering is all very easy.
2:21:06
It feels like a modern car even though it is approaching 80 years old, 75 years old.
2:21:10
Um and so that's that's a pretty usable, you know, performance car. >> Love it.
2:21:16
[snorts] >> Uh what other what other words or advice were you sharing with the Porsche team [laughter] on like what what would you be if you were magically the CEO of Porsche?
2:21:27
What what do you do right now?
2:21:28
cuz like there's certainly some some frustration in terms of accessibility for cars that people really like enthusiast cars. >> Yeah.
2:21:39
And and is that is that real or is that created?
2:21:42
You know, like I think I think the enthusiast cars, they're doing things generally right.
2:21:45
It is a tough business right now. the auto business.
2:21:50
>> They are dealing with changing >> governmental >> situations globally that have really affected their strategy.
2:21:57
And Porsche, who is relatively small and relies a lot on the success of a single model, is sitting here saying we had shifted electric because that's what everybody told us they wanted.
2:22:07
Suddenly they're saying that they don't necessarily want that.
2:22:10
Meanwhile, European regulations are significantly stricter than now North American and even Chinese regulations.
2:22:16
And is there a possibility that Porsche makes a special car just for the American and Chinese market?
2:22:22
That's a hard sell to Germany, which is the whole market.
2:22:24
I mean, it's it's an interesting flux kind of world right now in the auto world. And I don't know.
2:22:28
I honestly don't know what what what Porsche's future ought to be, but they have put a lot of money into I have right now at my house the electric Macan GTS. It is a fantastic car. It is not going to sell. >> Yeah.
2:22:43
>> Under any circumstances.
2:22:43
One last question on Porsche before we move on to China.
2:22:47
Uh, why do targas hold their value so well?
2:22:52
[snorts] >> They're just not made in large numbers and they are really damn cool.
2:22:54
The real question is why don't they make a turbo target yet?
2:22:58
That is would be or a GT3 target.
2:23:01
That is the market to go after.
2:23:03
But I think they're probably supply constraint. >> Yeah.
2:23:05
Uh, China BYD uh is in the they're in the Wall Street Journal today.
2:23:10
BYD launches new fast charging battery amid slowing demand in China.
2:23:14
I was surprised to see that they're losing market share there because it's so competitive, but they have this new tech.
2:23:19
They can charge the battery to 97% of capacity from 10% in just 9 minutes.
2:23:26
Uh have you like what what BYD models have you driven? What do you like?
2:23:31
What do you think will be cloned or adopted even if it can't be imported?
2:23:36
>> I drove some BYD sedan a long time ago.
2:23:39
Um, I don't remember which one it was. Very competent car.
2:23:43
>> Yeah, I think it was a Han.
2:23:43
This was three, four years ago.
2:23:44
And it seems like the cars have gotten more competent since then because I'm sitting here in San Diego and we actually see BYD cars almost every day on the streets coming over from Mexico where they're where they're pretty popular.
2:23:54
>> Wait, >> because you can buy them >> register them in Mexico and you can drive them into the United States. You just can't here.
2:24:02
>> I don't think it's Americans who are doing this.
2:24:03
It's just Mexicans who are coming over to shop or go to SeaWorld or whatever.
2:24:06
But we see me I mean we live in San Diego.
2:24:07
see Mexican cars on the road more than any US state. Yeah.
2:24:09
And a lot of them are electric because they're selling a lot of them there and they're they look pretty damn compelling.
2:24:14
I actually think that one of BYD's big success stories is forgetting the China market for a second, just their global conquest.
2:24:22
I mean, you see them all over Europe now, you see them all over Latin America now.
2:24:25
Um they are really making it as as America gets scared of the Chinese and is trying to make all these rules against them.
2:24:32
Boy, the other countries are really embracing it.
2:24:35
Ultimately these countries like cheap good cars and a lot of those cars are cheap and good >> and Tata never really had that success coming out of India maybe just too >> they should I don't know what happened with Tata they had that crazy tiny car I think
2:24:50
that I have a suspicion that if Tata had been in different market conditions things would be different but I think a lot of the success of BYD and the other Chinese companies is probably fueled by um the Chinese government providing really favorable benefits incentives to
2:25:05
them and in India you know when Tata was really trying to blow up 20 years ago it was prevs and you know that's a competitive advantage that the Chinese clearly have right now is their EV technology >> okay killer feature I saw out of China I want to know whether or not you want
2:25:21
this in your next car uh if the battery catches on fire it ejects it concussively out the side you've seen this video I'm sure is that a good feature or not >> oh god you can imagine some real liability issues that that hasn't gone in front of uh in front of attorneys in the United States. I'll tell you
2:25:39
I'll tell you [laughter] >> I don't think so.
2:25:43
>> The technology that they are developing is interesting.
2:25:45
Charging a battery in 9 minutes that is a huge deal, right? >> Yeah.
2:25:49
>> Because I think the still to this day the primary reason people don't want to adopt uh EVs is charge time and the fear of charge time and all that stuff.
2:25:56
And I think the more you can if you could ever really solve that problem whether it's battery swaps or or crazy fast charging that would probably be the last excuse >> you know >> have you seen the show the HBO show Silicon Valley?
2:26:12
>> Have you seen any of this?
2:26:12
So there's this character who's loosely based on Mark Cuban Russ Hanimman and in the show he brags about how he has a car with doors that go up and it's become uh you know iconic in Silicon Valley. And I had this thesis.
2:26:25
If you want to be the the the the most impressive person in Silicon Valley, the best buy is the is the BMW i8 because the doors go up. >> They do. And it looks cool.
2:26:37
>> And you can get one for like $40,000 now or something. They're cheap.
2:26:41
>> You'll be able to get one for 20,000 just in just a few years, too.
2:26:45
>> Uh we have an intern on our team who's looking at a new car.
2:26:48
Uh talk him out of getting one.
2:26:50
Uh, wh what why why should he not pull the trigger on a BMW i8? >> How old is he? >> He's 21.
2:26:58
>> And where does he live?
2:26:59
>> He lives in Los Angeles. And >> get one.
2:27:02
>> He should definitely get one. >> Get one. >> 21 and he's in LA.
2:27:04
He should obviously get an i8.
2:27:07
He's going to go around flexing.
2:27:08
He's going to He's going to put those doors up at every stoplight. >> Yeah, every stop. >> Every stoplight. [laughter] Do it.
2:27:15
Uh should he should he buy one that's already been wrapped and crashed in crypto?
2:27:19
[laughter] Uh in crypto >> resolution is that he will wrap and crash it if he doesn't buy one.
2:27:25
>> Yeah, I just assume uh the the the other the other broader question is that uh is that uh he he often winds up at a valet and and I want to know what is the best bargain car to make sure that you get valet?
2:27:40
You know how they park the nice cars in the front?
2:27:43
>> What's the car that's the best bargain to get the awesome valet spot?
2:27:46
I mean that is up there right >> in the 30s and and car enthusiasts laugh at that car and do not have any respect for that car but LA valet and driving it around LA and like you know that I remember when those were new I I lived in Philly and I remember seeing them on the streets thinking this looks like a concept car and I know it's not that fast and I know it doesn't drive great.
2:28:07
It's got a three-cylinder engine but holy crap this thing looks so insane.
2:28:13
>> It's been 10 years and it still looks just as cool. >> Still looks cool.
2:28:16
He was asking me, he was like, "Three cylinders, so are they in a Vshape?"
2:28:18
And I was like, "No, it's not a V3."
2:28:22
>> But also, but also, if you're if you're thinking about an i8, you shouldn't concern yourself with any of that stuff.
2:28:26
You're obviously not a car enthusiast, so [laughter] just don't worry about your cylinders.
2:28:33
>> Just to defend him, I was pitching him this.
2:28:35
I was pitching him this, but I still think it's a great It's a great >> flex car, but it is a hell of a flex. >> Yes.
2:28:42
What [snorts] what else is in that category?
2:28:43
If you if you maybe double the budget, triple the budget, but you still want uh just ridiculousness for the price.
2:28:51
>> I am surprised to see how cheap McLarens are getting.
2:28:53
And the early McLarens, the MP412C's have a reputation for being unreliable.
2:28:57
However, the 570S, which was sort of the next generation car, that was the entry model, they are starting to come down.
2:29:05
We sold one on Cars and Vince not that long ago for like 80 some.
2:29:07
That's a pretty appealing car cuz that is like real fast.
2:29:10
That is not like, oh, the i8 is pretty fast fast.
2:29:14
That is like modern car, 3 second or less, 0 to 60 type of fast.
2:29:16
Those are pretty impressive cars for that money.
2:29:20
>> Um, you're still always worried every day, you know, though, when you're driving a 40,000 milei McLaren that was probably on turo for three and a half years.
2:29:30
It's still always a little bit worried, right? >> Yeah.
2:29:33
>> On on Turo [laughter] for that long rough.
2:29:36
[gasps] What >> what are you looking What are you most excited for release-wise this year?
2:29:42
>> You know, there's not that much stuff that's coming out this year that I'm really pumped for.
2:29:45
I think the Rivian R2 is definitely the car that I'm most excited for.
2:29:48
I've already driven it, but I am excited to see how it does.
2:29:49
EVs are obviously have fallen off, but that car is so damn good, and I just hope that like it has the success it deserves because it is just such a great car.
2:30:00
Um, I'm excited to see the the electric Ferrari for sure.
2:30:04
I don't think it'll be out yet this year.
2:30:05
Um, definitely excited to drive the new hypercars, the F80 and McLarens, which is called the W1.
2:30:11
>> Um, but it seems like this year is a little bit less of a crazy year of cool stuff that I've been excited for.
2:30:15
And I think R2 to me is the especially from a consumer retail car industry perspective.
2:30:22
To me, probably the most interesting car coming out.
2:30:25
>> What's going on with Scout Motors?
2:30:25
Is that is that taking some of Riven's IP?
2:30:32
Do I I'm just kind of speculating here, but did VW Group is a big investor in Rivian and I think they got IP rights through that investment to try to bring it over to the rest of the fleet.
2:30:42
Then Scout is kind of >> like uh expanding off of what Rivian's done.
2:30:49
What's the relationship there?
2:30:52
>> It'll be an interesting thing to see because yeah, Volkswagen is investor in Rivian but also basically owns Scout and it's like wait a minute, you know, these cars are really similar.
2:30:59
like they're both these kind of boxy off-road electric vehicles.
2:31:01
One interesting distinction is that Stout is going to do a plug-in hybrids.
2:31:04
They're going to have gas motors in those cars.
2:31:06
Um, and I think that that is one excuse people use for not buying Rivians.
2:31:10
They're worried if they go overlanding, they're going to run out of charge, which is a legitimate worry if you're actually out in the middle of the desert or the mountains or whatever.
2:31:18
Um, but Scout, they recently announced they're pushing Scout a year to 28 now.
2:31:22
Um, this is one of those things where I'm like a believe it when I see it guy.
2:31:26
you know, they showed those cars which were so cool.
2:31:28
What has that been two years ago?
2:31:31
Now they're saying it'll be another two years.
2:31:32
It's like let's let's let's see what happens.
2:31:36
Let's see what the climate is like politically um before these cars actually come out.
2:31:40
But it is interesting that yeah, Volkswagen Group is basically pitting these two brands sort of against each other.
2:31:44
Um and I am curious how that will end up shaking down. >> Yeah.
2:31:50
Is there a word for those like reverse hybrids where it's mostly an electric car, but it has a gas engine that you can fill up to charge the battery?
2:31:59
I saw a demo from a Chinese car, but that feels like something that for the overlander, for the camper, for somebody who wants to go off-rid and not have the range anxiety, but still have all the benefits of the electric powertrain.
2:32:11
>> Yeah, that that that is I think that would almost like a generator essentially. >> Yeah, basically.
2:32:15
>> I think that would be great.
2:32:15
I think I think people would probably they would certainly be more willing to adopt that than like a full electric for like the overlanding crowd.
2:32:21
However, I would argue that like I walk around my neighborhood and like eight of my neighbors have Rivian R1S's.
2:32:26
Like these people aren't actually overlanding, right?
2:32:29
These are these are cars the three row SUVs they're going to take their kids around.
2:32:32
And I think that you can't you can't you can't do too much development for the overlanding crowd, which isn't real.
2:32:38
Uh there's not a lot of people in the overlanding world willing to spend 120 grand on a brand new vehicle anyway.
2:32:43
Um, mostly you got to think about who's actually going to buy these, which is, you know, parents.
2:32:49
>> Do you have do you have expectations around uh self-driving capabilities just going to normal consumer cars over the next few years?
2:32:56
Like I don't know if you've been in a Whimo, but technology is like there >> Porsche dealers last weekend and and I was like how much of a threat do you think the like at what point do consumers say like I love Porsche but I don't want to I want I want the best possible autonomous driving, >> right?
2:33:17
[clears throat] >> And so I'm just gonna for my daily I couldn't possibly go with Porsche because I I don't want to drive.
2:33:24
>> Yeah, I think about that a lot.
2:33:24
Um I have been surprised at autonomous v a uh autonomous technology.
2:33:32
There was a lot of talk about it for a long time and then it the last two years I haven't heard that much.
2:33:37
It's almost like they haven't been able to kind of whatever the next hump is like they're doing well and the Tesla FSD is great and a lot of other cars have really great systems too but none of these are like Whimo type like they're not you're not that doesn't seem like it's ready to go into cars that you or me would be able to buy and that doesn't seem like it's changed much over the last couple of years.
2:33:56
It seems like the world has moved on to like AI and and uh you kind of forgotten about like autonomous cars and I do wonder how long that's going to be.
2:34:04
I do think that Porsche will have to develop like there will have to be autonomous Porsches like other automakers will do it too.
2:34:10
If they want to sell Cayenne and Panameas, those are not necessarily being sold to people who like love to drive.
2:34:15
Um, and so those cars also will have they'll have to do that.
2:34:20
That's just going to have to be what they do. I'm hopeful.
2:34:22
>> Yeah, Mercedes seemed really close with uh level three system that you could actually watch of YouTube video on the center console >> and they even said at some point they would be willing to take liability, but like where is that?
2:34:33
never really shipped or anything.
2:34:35
And you would think that it would be like a rat race, arms race, and it would be like, "Okay, well, now BMW fires back and they're, you know, level three plus, right?"
2:34:42
But it just never really played out.
2:34:45
>> They all went all they all went all in on EV and spent a lot of money and time developing that.
2:34:48
And >> yeah, >> it turned out that's kind of been a little bit of a dud at least here in North America.
2:34:53
And it's like we would rather have a I think most people would rather have >> most people. Yeah, definitely.
2:34:58
>> Uh, how do I get a one of these new Unimogs from Mercedes?
2:35:00
[laughter] Well, the the story I read was that they're building precisely one. Did you read that? No. >> They're building one.
2:35:08
>> That was what I was afraid of because you look at this thing and it's like it looks like a concept car.
2:35:11
When I first saw it, I was like, "Okay, this is cool, but it's obviously AI."
2:35:16
>> And then Mercedes was posting it from their actual account.
2:35:18
I'm like, "Okay, it's real, but it's a partnership with this uh other kind of like commercial truck company. I forget the name.
2:35:25
So, I'm not going to get one, you're saying.
2:35:29
And you're not going to review one?" >> No.
2:35:31
I mean, even if they did make them, the Unimogs, especially modern Unimogs, have almost completely been restricted to not the US.
2:35:36
There's all sorts of regulations and trucks, importing trucks to the US is hard.
2:35:40
Um, but it'd be cool as hell.
2:35:44
It looks incredibly cool. >> What a G6 land.
2:35:49
>> What's the most elite big family SUV >> to buy this year? I'm in the market.
2:35:54
Um, the answer for me, if I was the answer answering this question, it would be the Lexus LX because I think that that is a serious car that is seriously capable.
2:36:07
It is the 300 series Land Cruiser globally, which is a very serious car that Toyota doesn't bring here anymore as a Toyota.
2:36:12
And I think if you know, you know.
2:36:14
That car is an if you know, you know, car.
2:36:16
I think a lot of people would say that it's the Cadillac Escalade IQ, but I think that car is certainly uh there's a group of people who are buying that car.
2:36:25
You know, [laughter] it's not really uh I think they think they are elite and I think that it's it's uh it's not really that, but I think I like the if you know you know cars better.
2:36:34
The LX, specifically the Overtrail LX, like the off-road version is like a very it's a three row, but it's like a very capable off-roader and it's expensive and not that many people are buying it. Those are special cars.
2:36:47
>> Okay, last last car recommendation.
2:36:47
Uh there's a there's a group of folks on our team, all young single individuals. They go on date nights.
2:36:54
They were thinking about going in and buying one car that they would share.
2:36:58
They were considering a Lamborghini Urus that they would each have uh a few nights a month with which to go on first. >> Some more backstory.
2:37:07
I think it was the two of us were >> again. This is our idea.
2:37:11
But is there is there a better car for a group of young men in Los Angeles to share for first dates than a Lamborghini.
2:37:23
>> Do we have a budget here or are we Is it just >> Well, I mean, we're talking about eight or so guys.
2:37:27
>> There's eight or so guys.
2:37:27
So, they're going to all be paying a normal car payment of a couple hundred, but you add that up, you get into like three grand.
2:37:34
You get into like three grand a >> potentially lease like a like a Rolls-Royce.
2:37:38
>> Rolls-Royce, but that's not maybe the right date car.
2:37:39
So, yeah, the team's right there if you want to take a look.
2:37:42
If it was me, I would get a Bentega for that same money.
2:37:44
But it depends on the type of lady that you're or man that you're trying to attract.
2:37:48
There's a certain type of of lady or man that is interested in an Urus driver and there is a certain type that's interest and you kind of got to just figure out what you're looking for. You know what I mean? >> Okay. >> Yeah.
2:38:00
Your wife is not going to be attracted to the Urus, [laughter] but she might appreciate. >> Yeah.
2:38:06
Well, that's why Turo exists.
2:38:06
We will we will we will need to turo each and run the proper AB test for the for the >> that may actually be the easier way to do this for [laughter] >> truly >> because at some point in either situation you have to come clean.
2:38:19
>> Yeah, you have [laughter] to come and be like >> the tonight. Oh.
2:38:22
Uh >> well the best thing a 24-hour tour rental you potentially can squeeze in two dinners, a breakfast and a lunch and then maybe even a late lunch before you got to return the car.
2:38:33
Many years ago, I did ads for Turo and in my YouTube videos.
2:38:38
And for some reason, I agreed to be paid in Turo credit instead of dollars.
2:38:42
And it got to a point at one point where I had like $22,000 in Turo credit.
2:38:47
And so [laughter] whenever I would travel anywhere, I would just sort by most expensive and I would rent whatever G Wagon or Audi R8 or McLaren was available and whatever.
2:38:55
[laughter] The brutal thing for me is I was watching I was watching your videos and I became a Turo client, but I was, you know, in my early 20s.
2:39:04
I couldn't get any of the good stuff.
2:39:06
I [laughter] just be like, "Okay, like uh I can get a boxer, >> right?" >> Oh, well.
2:39:13
Well, thank you so much for taking the time to come check out.
2:39:17
Thanks for having me back. I appreciate it.
2:39:19
>> Everyone, go follow Cars and Bids. Go to cars andbids. com by Yeah. Sort by most expensive. Buy that car. That's what you want. >> Exactly right. There you go. Exactly right. Your own method. We'll talk to you soon. Goodbye.
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2:39:52
Without further ado, Max Hodak is back on the show.
2:39:55
>> [music] >> Max, good to see you. How are you doing?
2:39:59
>> I we do not have audio, but you look fantastic. You look fantastic. The video looks great.
2:40:04
Uh Max Hodak is of course the founder and CEO of Science Corporation.
2:40:09
He's co-founder of Neurolink, and there are some exciting news developments coming through today.
2:40:17
I think I heard something. >> I think I hear Max. Can you hear us? >> I can hear you.
2:40:21
>> Yeah, I can hear a little bit. >> Great.
2:40:23
So, uh, give us the maybe reintroduce the company and then give us the news today.
2:40:29
>> Yeah, I mean, it's been a crazy crazy couple months.
2:40:33
So, we're, uh, I mean, we're a medical technology company really focused on the brain.
2:40:37
It's just when you engage directly with the brain, you get the effect size.
2:40:39
You don't really see elsewhere in medicine.
2:40:41
Our our lead product is the is a retinal prosthetical trial last year on age related macular degeneration.
2:40:51
It's one of the main reasons people go blind. Um that's unimpered.
2:40:54
And in that clinical trial, you're able to take people that haven't been able to recognize faces for over a decade to reading.
2:40:59
I found out the other week that one of our patients um finished a 300page novel.
2:41:02
Um there's a sketch on the wall of our office of someone who sent us a sketch of the Sydney Opera House that she drew through it. >> Wow.
2:41:10
>> We're still having some audio errors.
2:41:10
Uh let's uh let's take a little break.
2:41:14
We'll come back to you in a few minutes. Is that okay?
2:41:16
Let's sort that out and [clears throat] uh Jordy and I will go back to a bit of the news and uh give you an update on uh chat GPT is pulling back potentially from the direct uh direct response advertising.
2:41:30
The agentic commerce is going to be a little bit more brand focused potentially.
2:41:34
I saw some news about >> Aentic commerce uh Aentic commerce is different than the ads product. >> Yes. Yes.
2:41:43
at like uh Aenta Commerce is like you search for a product >> a Shopify retailer like has opted into this.
2:41:51
>> There's a question about >> I think I think I think a big part of it is just like focus right like it seems like over the last >> uh couple months like my my interpretation of open AI strategy is like hey let's focus on >> our core business consumer let's focus on enterprise codeg gen and let's just like get back to basics.
2:42:11
My big question is is I wonder if there will be an opportunity to uh to run more targeted ads on those more considered purchases like a car.
2:42:19
Like I have hit chat GPT with a number of questions about very expensive purchases like a car.
2:42:26
I'm not getting targeted on Instagram with car ads because typically the car brands have uh sort of just like brand advertising broadly for okay yeah here's a brand you see it at the Super Bowl.
2:42:39
But uh direct response has never really worked on meta for these highly considered purchases like houses and cars.
2:42:46
But people go to LLMs asking questions about those.
2:42:49
What will it be like to live in this neighborhood?
2:42:50
Is this like here's my budget?
2:42:52
What what should I be uh you know what should I be looking for in a family car?
2:42:56
Like the questions that you asked Doug Demiro.
2:43:00
We're we're fortunate that we get to ask him directly about R8s and organic and I I8s and all sorts of Bentegas versus Uruses, but a lot of people will have that question and go to an LLM for a debate.
2:43:12
And you can even go to chatbt right now and just ask, you know, what's the best car?
2:43:16
What car do you think I want?
2:43:18
And it will just tell you and there's an opportunity there to drive conversion to a very high ticket purchase.
2:43:23
But it's unclear um you know how quickly that will that will roll out.
2:43:28
Uh, we do have a piece of uh advice for everyone.
2:43:32
>> By the way, I just asked >> what >> Chad Chad GBT 5.
2:43:34
4 thinking, "What car do you think I want?"
2:43:37
It only had to think for a couple of seconds.
2:43:39
Probably a Porsche 992 GT3 RS with the Weox bag. >> See, nailed it.
2:43:45
And so, the thing is is that it could be asking that question in the background.
2:43:49
It could it could go in the background and just say for every single person ask what's the what's the highest ticket item that you think that they might buy?
2:43:56
And then they could go to Porsche and say, "Hey, we think we got a fish on the line here."
2:44:00
Like, just pay us a couple bucks.
2:44:03
If we get them across the finish line, pay us a thousand bucks or a couple thousand bucks.
2:44:07
And that could be a very different shape of advertiser, I think.
2:44:11
>> Yeah, it's hard to hard to handle the attribution.
2:44:13
But >> yes, but I think it's actually easier in an LLM context because if you if you are actually going to buy that GT3 RS with a YO package, you'll probably ask Chad GPT about where can you find one?
2:44:27
And then when you're in the dealership, when you're reviewing a contract, you might potentially uh actually have the the LLM review the contract, right?
2:44:37
like you might have you might upload it upload the the the sales contract and you might ask it hey update my insurance and it might go do that.
2:44:46
So it might actually have a lot more uh attribution and then down the line it might actually say you might be asking a question hey my check engine lights on or how do I put this in track mode and then it knows that you actually got the GT3 RS with the YOC package.
2:45:00
So who knows anyway I think we have resolved our issues.
2:45:02
Uh we will return [music] to our discussion with Max Hodak. How are you doing Max? Think I know. >> Yes, I think so.
2:45:13
>> Let's uh let's let's let's restart with uh >> start over from the beginning because I was I I could hardly hear you, but what I was hearing I was quite excited about. >> Yes.
2:45:24
>> So, we make brain implants.
2:45:24
Our main our main one is a retinal prostthesis.
2:45:26
So, it's a chip implanted in the back of the eye.
2:45:30
Finished a major clinical trial last last summer >> in age related macular degeneration, which is one of the leading causes of blindness.
2:45:36
And in the trial, we were able to take patients that like there's one patient that hasn't been able to recognize faces in over a decade.
2:45:41
I found out that she finished a 300page novel recently. >> Oh, that's insane.
2:45:48
>> Wait, so so uh couldn't recognize faces.
2:45:51
That means that like if I'm trying to imagine what that looks like, it's effectively take a picture of what I'm seeing and then just blur blur blur until I can't even recognize a face.
2:45:58
Is that is that basically what the person's experiencing?
2:46:02
>> So in this disease, yeah, they lose their high resolution central vision.
2:46:03
So there's like like you when you look online you might see an image of like a big black splotch in the center of your vision and the patients don't experience a black slot splotch.
2:46:13
So it's like a little bit we think describe it as missing.
2:46:17
So it's kind of like like a big extended blind spot >> but um yeah I mean all of your high resolution high acuity central vision gets uh destroyed in in this disease geographic atrophy.
2:46:27
And so we have a chip that uh we implant under where the dead retina is and can stimulate this retina directly >> bypassing the dead cells to get the signal back into the brain.
2:46:37
So like if you I mean humanity is empirically not that good at drug discovery >> but the brain is a computer and there's a cable that carries the visual signal into the brain and if we can get the signal into the cable then you can get vision into the brain.
2:46:50
>> Wow, that's remarkable.
2:46:50
Uh, how much is the device that you implant like a camera sensor that I would see in an iPhone?
2:46:59
>> The So, there's a wearable.
2:46:59
So, the GL the patients wear glasses and on the glasses there's two parts implant, but then there's the glasses and the glasses have a camera that is just like an iPhone camera and there's a laser projector that projects the image onto the implant. >> Okay.
2:47:12
But the the cool trick here is the implant is it's kind of all these tiny little solar panels.
2:47:17
>> And so it is powered by the image that's projected onto it.
2:47:19
And so this means that there's no battery, there's no cable coming out of the eye.
2:47:22
It's just that little chip because it is like when you project the infrared image onto the implant that powers it at the same time to stimulate the retina. >> Wow.
2:47:30
Um this feels like an invasive process. How invasive is it?
2:47:34
Is this an expert surgeon doing the work?
2:47:38
Are you thinking about robotics?
2:47:40
thinking about robotics? uh what's involved in actually obviously the reward is so high that it's worth it but uh what does that look like now what will it look like in a decade >> yeah I mean this is done by by human surgeons it's done by vitra retininal surgeon yeah >> um and it's a but it's a simple
2:47:57
outpatient procedure so you can do this under local anesthesia so you make an injection next to the eye it goes darken for a couple hours >> they front of the eye it looks I mean like watching a video looks kind of like >> um I don't know that you would do this electively but the uh It's It's really not a big deal. It's an about an hour
2:48:12
It's an about an hour and a half and the patient goes home and a day later they're they can take a bandage off. >> That's remarkable.
2:48:18
Um and so so uh walk me through like >> post implant postsurgery monitoring. Do you have benchmarks?
2:48:28
I mean you mentioned like a 300page book that seems like okay it worked.
2:48:31
But uh are you giving them the normal like eye test?
2:48:35
What's the what what what what what are all the different batteries that you use to understand the effect of the uh of the device?
2:48:45
>> Yeah, I mean there's a bunch there's we looking at both efficacy or things like how many letters of uh can they read on the ITAR. >> Yeah.
2:48:51
>> And improvement in that that was one of the main trial end points.
2:48:53
So we wanted at least two lines of improvement.
2:48:55
We got on average better than that.
2:48:59
>> And the uh and then you're also looking at measures of safety.
2:49:02
So for when is there anything worse off for having this like in their they have the chip in but the the laser is not on is there residual vision because many of these patients have residual peripheral vision that they can use to walk around.
2:49:14
It's just that they can't they can't read.
2:49:17
They can't definitely can't drive.
2:49:19
>> Um and you don't want that to get worse.
2:49:22
And so this is there's various ways you can you can measure that.
2:49:24
You can measure the range of the the visual field.
2:49:28
Um but yeah I mean the eye chart is a very standard test.
2:49:30
We we use that as a standpoint. >> Um, sorry, J.
2:49:36
>> Uh, what uh you've raised a bunch of new money like what what is this going to go towards?
2:49:40
Is it you know continuing to focus on on the the core product? Like walk us through. >> Yeah.
2:49:48
So the so we we announced yesterday that we raised $230 million series bring the total amount of capital to a little under half a billion which is like you know it's like a lot of money.
2:49:58
A lot of money, our >> founder, >> a lot of money for an incredible incredible cause. Congratulations.
2:50:07
>> We got ourselves the privilege of working really hard.
2:50:12
So I I uh can you take me back a little bit to how you discovered this particular problem to solve because it feels like you've throughout your career you've taken like a sort of general approach but then uh there there's
2:50:25
always a question of like what's the most impactful uh quickest way to market most you know capital efficient there's a whole bunch of different uh trade-offs that I imagine you wrestled with before you landed on this particular product. So we have there we have three programs
2:50:40
So we have there we have three programs at science.
2:50:43
>> There's our work in the retina.
2:50:43
There's our biohybrid neural interface technology which is a general purpose kind of what people think of as like a a neural interface but a little bit uh different than what most other people do.
2:50:54
And then we have uh improvements in critical critical care life support technologies.
2:50:58
All third I mean I think one way to conceive of what we're doing is like if Metronic was started in 2021 what are the projects they would be taking on like the next 20 years.
2:51:04
And when you think about from a brain computer interface perspective, I mean I beyond like like like what is a BCI?
2:51:12
This has become kind of synonymous for many people with paralyzed people controlling computers.
2:51:18
That is what many of companies are doing.
2:51:20
But I we think that coar implants are BCIs. Yeah.
2:51:24
>> I mean those have been around for decades and the and >> it's so the retinal prosthesis is really in the tradition of coar implants.
2:51:32
There's a million people plus with those out there.
2:51:34
It's just until recently the technology hasn't really worked.
2:51:36
And so when you think about what is the most valuable uh BCI product that it's an unmet need, restoring vision to the blind is really up there.
2:51:44
And so the need is is one of those things that is kind of obvious in restoring vision to the blind is a quest humanity has been on for thousands of years.
2:51:52
And then if you were to do that, when I looked at when me and my co-founders looked around at the state of the world in early 2021, we it was pretty easy for us to build conviction that that that one way or another by stimulating either the optic nerve directly or the the layer of cells in the right just before that using either a gene therapy or an electrical stimulator, one way or another, you kind of have these like four boxes.
2:52:16
It's really like three boxes of those trade-offs. One of those would work.
2:52:19
and we went out and did an exhaustive survey of the state-of-the-art in uh in kind of each of those three options and zeroed in on on what we're doing now.
2:52:31
>> And there's I think really like a first principles engineering uh approach to how you tackle the problem >> and uh that has so far paid off.
2:52:38
We're not the market yet, but I think we're getting pretty close.
2:52:44
And the next step, this capital is to >> um we've submitted for marketing approval in Europe.
2:52:49
hope to be uh commercially approved there in the in the near future. Not not quite there yet.
2:52:55
Um and then start to be able to commercialize it.
2:52:58
>> Talk about resolution.
2:52:58
I imagine that the camera on the glasses is something like 1080p, something along those lines.
2:53:06
But I imagine that the uh the actual implant needs to serve something that's maybe lower resolution or translated.
2:53:17
you you're not you're not like running a yeah you're not running like an image to text pipeline and then piping that into the brain.
2:53:23
Uh but what what is the input and then what goes actually into the brain?
2:53:28
>> So it's important to understand that only the central couple degrees of your visual field is high acuity color.
2:53:36
>> Okay, >> you're constantly looking around to try to like reduce the uncertainty in the brain.
2:53:41
What you you don't see the image on the retina directly.
2:53:43
What you experience is a world model constructed by the brain. >> It's highly semantic.
2:53:48
Like you can look at something and kind of know will that hard or soft if I touch it.
2:53:52
That isn't obvious but we're experiencing this world model.
2:53:55
And so as the eye is moving around it's filling in areas of uncertainty.
2:53:59
And so the implant you're right it's not to we're not restoring high resolution color vision today.
2:54:05
>> Um but it is what we are getting is this this intuitive form image that patients can look at.
2:54:10
It can it strings together shapes into letters and letters into words and the brain can apprehend that intuitively and that had never really been done before.
2:54:19
And so that is like a really clear statement that we're on the right track.
2:54:23
>> But the next step is to make the implant larger so that this the device that's in now is 2 millimeters by 2 millimeters which covers it's like looking through a straw and the electrodes are.
2:54:30
1 millimeters which means that you stimulate a bunch of cells at a time.
2:54:37
And so what that means is it's not that it is pixelated.
2:54:39
They don't see it as pixelated, they see it as sharp, but they only get a small amount of detail at once.
2:54:45
>> Now, it does better than you would expect for the for the number of electrodes because as the eye moves around, it fills in this information.
2:54:52
And so, it really it's a little bit >> that's fascinating.
2:54:56
>> Yeah, you can't really think of it like camera in that way, >> but we actually have the next version of the chips already in hand.
2:55:01
The electrodes are much smaller.
2:55:03
We're going to go from 400 to a couple thousand. Yeah.
2:55:07
>> Um and those are we're working on the the clinical study for those over the next year. >> Yeah.
2:55:13
>> And hopefully every like two years or so we'll have versions coming out and we actually think that it it could be upgradable although we'll have to prove that of course. >> Yeah.
2:55:20
based on [clears throat] based on uh the kind of early uh early patients like how do you expect this market to evolve and how quickly uh how quickly uh people that suffer from blindness will adopt something like this once you continue to prove out the product.
2:55:42
My assumption is that there's like an extreme eagerness to uh find a solution again for something that a solution that has never existed.
2:55:50
But uh you know what do you think the adoption curve will look like? >> Yeah.
2:55:56
I mean blind patients are pretty motivated for the most part.
2:55:59
motivated for the most part. Um so age related macular generation as a whole is big but not that many people have a form that is uh late stage and serious enough that this makes sense right now for the current so that AMD globally is 200 million people but that's not really
2:56:15
relevant number both eyes large area of atrophy um the that's the population that's really relevant for the product as it is right now that's we think that's like six 6,500 people a year in the US and backlog of a couple of maybe 150 200 thousand people across the US and Europe. Um and with the next version of
2:56:35
Europe. Um and with the next version of the device with a larger field of view and a smaller electrode that expands to probably five million people and these are these are we're not going >> we're if the next several years we're doing a thousand a year that would be those would be numbers >> and um I so right now it like I said
2:56:57
it's not high resolution color vision but is this powerful existence proof that this technology is on the right track but I I do think that the next couple gen device generations will hopefully be able to get color percepts will be able to at least get red and green and you'll be able to get close to native acuity. Um you're not going to go
2:57:10
Um you're not going to go sometimes people ask like okay when will I get this as an augmentation like you're not going to do better than the photo receptors if you have photo receptors you should use those >> but I think that we can get pretty close to what those are for you.
2:57:24
>> Last question for me smellvision when are we getting it?
2:57:27
How will we solve the problem of teaching AI to smell?
2:57:30
Do we need to capture the olfactory system from my brain and decode that into tokens?
2:57:39
What if I lose my sense of smell?
2:57:41
Will you be able to help me restore my sense of smell in the future?
2:57:45
>> I mean, this gets to a fairly deep question of just like how do you capture the structure of any phenomenal mode?
2:57:51
>> Like and hearing are different, smell is different, sematic is different.
2:57:54
different, sematic is different. So how do you capture like we have we can write down images and audio files to computer and so we have this format that captures them but that doesn't really tell you about like the like a wave file is different than an image file and so like what is a small file like and there's
2:58:10
actually really interesting research on like you can there's like it's it's a chemical sensor spans the space of molecules you can get this decomposition of the space of molecules um but this is yeah smell has been very um there's a lot of companies that over the years have worked on growing up neurons and express single factory receptors to try to do like chemical detection. Um
2:58:27
Um because like dog noses are way they're like some of the most chemical most sensitive chemical detectors in the universe. >> Yeah.
2:58:37
>> And I actually was talking to a company the other day that is training dogs to detect cancer. >> Yeah.
2:58:41
>> And I went into the pitch being like I don't believe you.
2:58:43
And I came out oh like I get like that actually is like I could see it. >> Yeah.
2:58:47
And the trick was the really interesting thing just really shortly was wasn't not it's not that you're picking up some chemical that is present if you have cancer.
2:58:55
It's that there's thousands of chemicals that are constantly just like being emitted that are like in your blood that are being moved out.
2:59:02
And if you can train a dog under reinforcement, what it does is it kind of upregulates some receptors, downregulates some other receptors, the brain wires together to pick out that protochemical space.
2:59:11
And so it can pick out this exquisite balance of hundreds or thousands of chemicals to say when these are present in these proportions.
2:59:19
Yeah, you should get >> that's fascinating.
2:59:20
So it's not like there's a cancer chemical. It's the irregulation. It's the pattern.
2:59:23
I mean this seems perfectly tailored for artificial intelligence, but uh yeah, we don't we don't even have a smell file yet.
2:59:32
So dogs still employed >> in the singularity for sure. >> Yeah.
2:59:36
And so it's like if it's not one chemical, then you can't just massspec it.
2:59:39
You want to detect thousands of them, which is why they're funny as dogs. >> I love it. I love it.
2:59:42
Well, thank you so much and congratulations on the progress.
2:59:45
Thank you for everything you do.
2:59:46
Uh what >> how last question from my side.
2:59:48
How like talk about the significance of this milestone.
2:59:53
You obviously raised a lot of money out the gates, but is this like like hey, we actually like is like becoming a real company now and moving moving beyond uh because everybody talks about uh big, you know, there's a lot of big numbers that get thrown around in our industry.
3:00:11
Uh if you have, you know, some AI database company with 10 million of ARR, you can raise $230 million.
3:00:16
But this is a very different kind of type of business where you had to raise a lot of money out the gates, but you maybe wouldn't have gotten a bunch more money if you weren't really onto something. >> Yeah.
3:00:28
I mean, our focus, I I really firmly believe that there needs to be businesses in this industry.
3:00:32
I mean, you can spend an infinite amount of money just on our research.
3:00:35
I mean, it's an infinite well of basic research.
3:00:36
infinite well of basic research. I mean, this is like there's so much grant money that goes into neuroscience, neural engineering, but we um I don't I mean I I I just like strongly feel it's like I we're suffering from this like money cancer that every now and then you kind of goes into remission when you raise around but then it comes back and like it the feeling won't go away until you have a sustainable business where
3:00:58
there's revenue coming in and I think that we're hopefully pretty like we're not we're close to that's like the thing we're focused on is um getting to a real business that reaches many patients and improves their lives and there's things
3:01:11
that you can point to that are like clearly valuable um to to lots of people that allow this to become sustainable and then it's a question of how fast do you grow rather than like is is BCI going to have a winner. >> Yeah, makes sense. >> Yeah, makes sense. >> Very cool.
3:01:25
Well, thank you for coming on and sharing and and for the work that you're doing.
3:01:29
>> Yeah, have a great weekend.
3:01:31
We'll talk to you soon, Max.
3:01:33
>> Yeah, I'm sure I'm sure Max has very relaxing weekends.
3:01:34
[laughter] >> Yeah, >> nothing going on at the office. No.
3:01:38
Uh, good luck with all the hard work ahead of you.
3:01:41
Thank you for everything you do.
3:01:43
Great talking to you soon. Goodbye. >> Cheers.
3:01:46
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3:02:09
Uh, Skook says, "Imagine trying to explain this to a software engineer 18 months ago."
3:02:13
And it's a Forbes article.
3:02:15
On January 5th, employees at Curser returned from the holiday weekend to an all hands meeting with a slide deck titled War Time. >> War Time.
3:02:23
>> After becoming the hottest, fastest growing AI coding company, Curser is confronting a new reality.
3:02:26
Developers may no longer need a code editor at all.
3:02:32
>> Yeah, what a what a wild ride over the last two weeks with Cursor.
3:02:33
last two weeks with Cursor. I mean the company's still growing and ARR is at 2 billion potentially raising at 50 billion but at the same time a lot of you know we've seen a lot of viral posts saying like I don't need my cursor seats anymore I've moved on to just coding
3:02:48
agents and so uh definitely a you know maybe there's a shift in the business do they go more into training models do they go deeper into certain enterprises that are maybe stickier or harder to get get to uh do they become more forward deployed helping with transformation doing actual projects. They can become a
3:03:04
They can become a consulting firm.
3:03:06
Like where is the next act two for that company will be an interesting question.
3:03:11
Um well hopefully they're not relying on building cursor using Mac Studios with 512 gigs of RAM because those apparently are no longer available due to the DRAM shortage. This is from Mac rumors.
3:03:24
The Mac Studio with the maximum amount of RAM that you can use to inference large models locally.
3:03:33
Well, it's going to be harder to get in the DRAM shortage.
3:03:35
So, pour one out for the good old maxed out Mac Studio.
3:03:41
>> Uh, it could be or they could just be preparing for the next revision.
3:03:42
I think there'll be a new Mac Studio out in a couple months and maybe they're ready to start building those because the I I imagine that the uh the purchase rate of those sort of like falls off slowly towards the end.
3:03:55
You know, no one really buys an iPhone right before they release the new iPhone.
3:03:59
there's a big surge and so maybe you want to allocate that DRAM to the next generation. >> Gab shared this on X.
3:04:05
He said they're rolling out CEOs for fast food brands you've never heard of. >> That's true.
3:04:11
>> And uh we got a post here.
3:04:11
Freddy's CEO under the chat from Freddy's.
3:04:15
John, [cough] >> you know about Freddy's?
3:04:18
>> I've never heard of Freddy's. >> Has Volta done?
3:04:21
>> We get some audio here. >> Has Volta done one? We need We need one.
3:04:24
See what I eat for lunch on the real. >> Here we go.
3:04:27
I'm Freddy's original double.
3:04:29
I'd like to make that a triple, please.
3:04:31
I'll do fries and a large diet. Dr.
3:04:34
Pepper cuz I'm on the go all the time. And the card is folks.
3:04:38
CEO eating his burger [music] like he does all the time.
3:04:44
>> This is such a funny little trend for the CEOs of >> original chains.
3:04:50
>> I would like to see SAS SAS CEOs do this. >> Here I am. I'm using All right.
3:04:54
How do I How do I poke around here? >> Eating burgers.
3:05:00
>> Get my app out so I get my point.
3:05:02
>> Is this a different company now? >> Thanks, bud.
3:05:05
>> So many of these >> tacos. Freddy's has tacos, too.
3:05:07
You got to go with the hot honey cheeseburger. Hot honey.
3:05:11
Little savory sweet action.
3:05:13
>> You want to see David Chang >> chowing down?
3:05:16
I want to see Jirro eating his own sushi. >> Give me that. Uh there's a lot more.
3:05:20
Uh there's a chart from anthropic on the impact of AI labor markets.
3:05:26
Blue shows the theoretical capability of AI.
3:05:29
Red shows where the observed usage is happening.
3:05:35
Computer and math is huge.
3:05:38
Office and admin is pretty big.
3:05:38
Sales is actually creeping up too.
3:05:40
Uh but if you're in production, transportation, protect ice service, there's a typo on this for some reason.
3:05:50
uh protect ice service protective services probably uh maybe a hallucination there.
3:05:55
Uh personal care grounds maintenance completely unaffected.
3:05:59
So head over to transportation and ground ser I was confused by the transportation thing because like like the self-driving cars like that's that that's happening that's coming like like uh in terms of AI's capability.
3:06:10
Yeah, maybe it's not you know an anthropic model that's driving you around but certainly automation will come for transportation.
3:06:16
Now, ground maintenance that feels much further off with uh you know, robots.
3:06:20
Nat Freeman's working on that one with the other ones.
3:06:25
But, uh Kevin Roose has a has a pneumonic to know about to learn about the uh the uh labor market.
3:06:29
He says, "Job's in the red, it's dead.
3:06:33
Jobs in the blue, join a construction crew."
3:06:34
And someone else was saying that this could have just been a bar chart, but uh you know, here we are.
3:06:40
Anyway, anything else we should talk about?
3:06:42
Why don't you find another post and I'll tell everyone about Sentry?
3:06:45
Century shows developers what's broken and helps them fix it fast.
3:06:49
That's why 150,000 organizations use it to keep their apps working.
3:06:53
Uh Tyler, you have a final >> I I have a post. Yeah.
3:06:57
Uh Scott Sumner, you know, uh from from GMU, I think he's retired, but you know, Macro goat. Yeah.
3:07:04
>> He has a new substack post. It's called Freak Out. >> Freak Out. >> Yeah. >> No way.
3:07:08
>> So, he's black pilling. >> Really? >> Yep.
3:07:10
>> Wasn't he just on Macro Musings? >> Uh pretty recently. Yeah. Great episode. >> Okay.
3:07:15
We got a GDP level targeting.
3:07:17
>> We got to read through this. Uh Sumner. Okay.
3:07:20
Well, >> when is it time to panic?
3:07:22
>> He's he's apparently he's saying he's saying freak out.
3:07:24
Isn't his blog called The Pursuit of Happiness?
3:07:28
>> What an odd freak out. When it's time to panic. Okay.
3:07:30
He's saying when it's time to panic.
3:07:32
He doesn't necessarily say that it's time to panic right now.
3:07:34
Um we should read through this, but we can cover this on Monday since this is a longer post. We need to digest this.
3:07:42
Maybe we should get him on the show.
3:07:42
I'm a big fan of Scott Sumner and his appearances on Macro Musings from the Mercer Institute.
3:07:47
Is that Mercus Institute? >> Mercada Center. >> Mercada Center.
3:07:51
>> Anyway, thank you for tuning in to TBPN on Friday. Thanks for coming.
3:07:54
Have a wonderful weekend.
3:07:57
Also, early happy birthday to Trey.
3:07:58
He's turning something in.
3:08:00
He's having a birthday on Monday, so he's probably having a fun weekend. Can't wait.
3:08:04
>> Anyway, >> leave us five stars on Apple Podcast and Spotify.
3:08:06
Subscribe to our newsletter tbpn.
3:08:09
com and we will see you on Monday of your life. And that's all folks. Good.