Is the latest excitement around AI just another round of dot-com or crypto style hype? The Lightcone hosts discuss where AI might be if the hype cycle is real and what may remain once the buzz wears off. Chapters (Powered by https://bit.ly/chapterme-yc) - 00:00 - Apply to F24 batch 00:22 - Coming Up 01:05 - Intro 1:21 What the media is saying about AI 2:38 Where are we in the AI hype cycle? 9:32 Where does the value come from? 15:15 - Valuing a Tech Company vs. Speculative Assets 17:51 Comparing the crypto hype cycle to AI now 21:41 Increased ARR 24:14 Why a hype cycle might be good for founders 28:19 Early signs things are working 34:43 The fog of war 37:18 Outro
Dylan Patel is the founder of SemiAnalysis, a research & analysis company specializing in semiconductors, GPUs, CPUs, and AI hardware. Nathan Lambert is a research scientist at the Allen Institute for AI (Ai2) and the author of a blog on AI called Interconnects. Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep459-sb See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. *Transcript:* https://lexfridman.com/deepseek-dylan-patel-nathan-lambert-transcript *CONTACT LEX:* *Feedback* - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey *AMA* - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama *Hiring* - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring *Other* - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact *EPISODE LINKS:* Dylan's X: https://x.com/dylan522p SemiAnalysis: https://semianalysis.com/ Nathan's X: https://x.com/natolambert Nathan's Blog: https://www.interconnects.ai/ Nathan's Podcast: https://www.interconnects.ai/podcast Nathan's Website: https://www.natolambert.com/ Nathan's YouTube: https://youtube.com/@natolambert Nathan's Book: https://rlhfbook.com/ *SPONSORS:* To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: *Invideo AI:* AI video generator. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/invideoai-ep459-sb *GitHub:* Developer platform and AI code editor. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/github-ep459-sb *Shopify:* Sell stuff online. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep459-sb *NetSuite:* Business management software. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/netsuite-ep459-sb *AG1:* All-in-one daily nutrition drinks. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/ag1-ep459-sb *OUTLINE:* 0:00 - Introduction 3:33 - DeepSeek-R1 and DeepSeek-V3 25:07 - Low cost of training 51:25 - DeepSeek compute cluster 58:57 - Export controls on GPUs to China 1:09:16 - AGI timeline 1:18:41 - China's manufacturing capacity 1:26:36 - Cold war with China 1:31:05 - TSMC and Taiwan 1:54:44 - Best GPUs for AI 2:09:36 - Why DeepSeek is so cheap 2:22:55 - Espionage 2:31:57 - Censorship 2:44:52 - Andrej Karpathy and magic of RL 2:55:23 - OpenAI o3-mini vs DeepSeek r1 3:14:31 - NVIDIA 3:18:58 - GPU smuggling 3:25:36 - DeepSeek training on OpenAI data 3:36:04 - AI megaclusters 4:11:26 - Who wins the race to AGI? 4:21:39 - AI agents 4:30:21 - Programming and AI 4:37:49 - Open source 4:47:01 - Stargate 4:54:30 - Future of AI *PODCAST LINKS:* - Podcast Website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast - Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr - Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 - RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ - Podcast Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4 - Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/lexclips *SOCIAL LINKS:* - X: https://x.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://instagram.com/lexfridman - TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://facebook.com/lexfridman - Patreon: https://patreon.com/lexfridman - Telegram: https://t.me/lexfridman - Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman