In this episode of Invest Like The Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with investor Gavin Baker to explore the rapidly evolving AI landscape. They dive deep into the infrastructure war between Nvidia and Google, discuss the implications of Gemini 3 and scaling laws, and examine how the transition from Hopper to Blackwell chips is reshaping the industry. Baker shares his insights on frontier AI models and the economics of token production. The conversation also covers data centers in space, the future of robotics, and why traditional SaaS companies are making critical mistakes with AI adoption. A comprehensive look at the technical, economic, and strategic forces driving the AI revolution. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 5:03 The Blackwell Transition 23:15 The Prisoner's Dilemma 27:12 The Bear Case: Edge AI 37:19 Meta, Open Source, and Model Depreciation 43:08 Geopolitics and Rare Earths 50:42 Data Centers in Space 56:06 Power Constraints as a Governor 1:11:31 The SaaS Mistake 1:16:17 Nuclear and Quantum 1:22:25 Gavin’s Investing Origins #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #Investing #Technology #Nvidia #Google #Blackwell #Gemini #OpenAI #DataCenters #Semiconductors #ScalingLaws #Tech #Innovation #VentureCapital Presented by Ramp: https://ramp.com/invest Sponsored by AlphaSense and Ridgeline: https://www.alpha-sense.com/invest/ https://www.ridgelineapps.com/ ****** Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vc
In this conversation from a16z’s Runtime, Gavin Baker, Managing Partner and CIO of Atreides Management, joins David George, General Partner at a16z, to unpack the macro view of AI: the trillion-dollar data center buildout, the new economics of GPUs, and what this boom means for investors, founders, and the global economy. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:02 Are We in an AI Bubble? Setting the Stage with Data 02:41 Lessons from 2000: Dark Fiber vs. “No Dark GPUs” 05:07 ROI on AI: Why This Time Is Different 06:42 Nvidia, Google, and the Race to Win AI Infrastructure 08:36 Round-Tripping Deals and Competitive Pressure 10:58 Google’s TPU Advantage and the Four Leading Labs 12:22 The Application Layer: It’s Still Early 13:46 Big Tech’s “Right to Win” and the Execution Gap 15:24 Margins, Scaling Laws, and the Business Model Shift 17:18 Why Lower Gross Margins Mean Real AI Usage 19:44 SaaS, Software, and the Cloud Transition Analogy 21:12 Consumer AI, Browsers, and the Battle for Distribution 23:26 Reasoning Models and the Data Flywheel Effect 25:02 Chips, TPUs, and Broadcom’s Bet Against Nvidia 27:18 The Future of Business Models: Paying for Outcomes 29:41 Robotics, Humanoids, and Elon’s Optimus Vision Resources: Full Transcript on our Substack: https://a16z.substack.com/p/gavin-baker-and-david-george-on-positional Follow Gavin on X: https://x.com/GavinSBaker Follow Atreides Management on X: https://x.com/atreidesmgmt Follow David on X: https://x.com/DavidGeorge83 Stay Updated: If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends! Resources: Find a16z on X: https://x.com/a16z Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z Listen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYX Listen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a16z-podcast/id842818711 Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.
In this episode of Invest Like The Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy is joined by Gavin Baker to dissect the unprecedented AI technology boom. Gavin explains why recent growth from companies like Anthropic represents the most extraordinary moment in the history of capitalism. They explore the critical constraints of the AI build-out—"watts and wafers"—and how capitalism, from TSMC's chip manufacturing dominance to SpaceX's potential orbital compute, is racing to solve them. Gavin also unpacks the competitive landscape of chip design, the struggles at the AI application layer, and the shifting dynamics between giants like Google, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft. Finally, they discuss the geopolitical risks of AGI alongside the incredible potential for AI to revolutionize biotech and extend human life. An essential listen for anyone navigating modern tech markets. #Investing #ArtificialIntelligence #TechStocks #Nvidia #OpenAI #Semiconductors #VentureCapital #SpaceX #AGI #StockMarket Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 7:55 Anthropic and OpenAI Valuations 12:58 Watts, Wafers, and Infrastructure 14:39 Orbital Compute and Data Centers in Space 22:49 Avoiding the AI Bubble 28:26 Terafab and the Future of US Manufacturing 32:16 Returns to the Frontier 37:23 Continual Learning 42:03 New Chip Companies 48:52 Extending GPU Lifespans and Private Credit 51:22 The Application Layer 57:32 The Token Path and Open-Source Dynamics 1:01:37 Cybersecurity 1:05:46 Diversity Breakdown 1:11:59 Assessing the Big Tech Players in AI 1:19:02 Geopolitics, Personal Safety, and the AI Horizon Presented by Ramp: https://ramp.com/invest Sponsored by Vanta, WorkOS, Rogo, and Ridgeline: https://www.vanta.com/invest https://workos.com/ https://rogo.ai/invest https://www.ridgelineapps.com/ ****** Patrick O'Shaughnessy is the CEO of Positive Sum. All opinions expressed by Patrick and podcast guests are solely their own and do not reflect the opinion of Positive Sum. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Positive Sum may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. To learn more, visit psum.vc