88 years ago, a leading national magazine committed a major statistical blunder that ultimately caused it to go bankrupt. Since we're in the full swing of election season, here's a cautionary note on the power of sample bias... The year is 1936. FDR is up for reelection, and the Literary Digest had sent out 10 million "straw" ballots polling people on their choice for president. They received back 2.4 million ballots. The Digest predicted that Alf Landon would beat Franklin Delanor Roosevelt 57% to 43%. But a rising challenger emerged — the man who'd later be called the 'Babe Ruth of the polling profession'. George Gallup, founder of the Gallup poll, brashly announced that the Digest would be wrong. He was convinced that these millions of Digest postcards were mailed on the basis of telephone and auto registration lists and took no account of the low-income voters who were backing the New Deal. So Gallup polled a few thousand, albeit random, people and used their data to predict FDR's victory. And guess what, FDR won by a landslide: 62% to 37%. Our guest Ben Orlin recounts this story, and one thing is clear: Sample bias is a killer. Watch the full episode here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o4GgOBeXISk
Saagar Enjeti is a political journalist & commentator, co-host of Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar and The Realignment Podcast. He is exceptionally well-read, and the books he recommends are always fascinating and eye-opening. You can check out all the books he mentions in this episode here: https://lexfridman.com/saagar-books Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://lexfridman.com/sponsors/ep454-sb See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. *Transcript:* https://lexfridman.com/saagar-enjeti-2-transcript *CONTACT LEX:* *Feedback* - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey *AMA* - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama *Hiring* - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring *Other* - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact *EPISODE LINKS:* Saagar's Book Recommendations: https://lexfridman.com/saagar-books Saagar's Substack (where he recommends more books): https://saagarenjeti.substack.com/ Saagar's X: https://x.com/esaagar Saagar's Instagram: https://instagram.com/esaagar Breaking Points: https://youtube.com/@breakingpoints The Realignment Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/@therealignment Saagar's Linktree: https://linktr.ee/esaagar *SPONSORS:* To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: *Eight Sleep:* Temp-controlled smart mattress cover. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/eight_sleep-ep454-sb *AG1:* All-in-one daily nutrition drinks. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/ag1-ep454-sb *LMNT:* Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/lmnt-ep454-sb *BetterHelp:* Online therapy and counseling. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/betterhelp-ep454-sb *Shopify:* Sell stuff online. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/shopify-ep454-sb *NetSuite:* Business management software. Go to https://lexfridman.com/s/netsuite-ep454-sb *OUTLINE:* 0:00 - Introduction 5:06 - Why Trump won 10:07 - Book recommendations 13:44 - History of wokeism 21:13 - History of Scots-Irish 27:51 - Biden 31:54 - FDR 33:55 - George W Bush 36:18 - LBJ 41:35 - Cuban Missile Crisis 49:07 - Immigration 1:21:06 - DOGE 1:47:46 - MAGA ideology 1:50:58 - Bernie Sanders 1:59:20 - Obama vs Trump 2:16:19 - Nancy Pelosi 2:19:34 - Kamala Harris 2:35:19 - 2020 Election 2:59:08 - Sam Harris 3:10:15 - UFOs 3:16:06 - Future of the Republican Party 3:22:43 - Future of the Democratic Party 3:30:41 - Hope *PODCAST LINKS:* - Podcast Website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast - Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr - Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 - RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ - Podcast Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4 - Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/lexclips *SOCIAL LINKS:* - X: https://x.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://instagram.com/lexfridman - TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://facebook.com/lexfridman - Patreon: https://patreon.com/lexfridman - Telegram: https://t.me/lexfridman - Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman
Episode 2, 'Why Japan Lost,' comes out tomorrow!
Episode 2, 'Why Japan Lost,' comes out tomorrow!